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on Investment |
| By: | Statistical Analysis Division, Economic Outlook (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | In the second half of 2024 (H2 2024), despite macroeconomic and geopoliticaluncertainties and an intensifying protectionist sentiment worldwide, Korea’s 13 flagship industries are expected to continue seeing high exportgrowth driven by strong global IT demand and an uptick in domestic andinternational investment, with improvements also anticipated in domesticdemand and production. Overall, robust growth in several IT subsectors isexpected, including semiconductors, information and communication devices(ICT), and biotech, as well as in the shipbuilding industry. The automotiveindustry should continue flying high, while growth in other major segments such as petrochemicals and steel looks to remain flat. The slope of the declinein the battery industry (for which indicators show signs of contraction) shouldtaper off in the second half of the year. Thank you for reading this abstract of a paper by the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade! We are South Korea's premier think tank studying the nexus where trade and industry intersect. http://www.kiet.re.kr/en https://www.ssrn.com/index.cfm/en/korea- inst-industrial-econ-trade-res/ |
| Keywords: | H2 2024 outlook; industrial; industrial outlook; Korean economy; economic outlook; economic forecasting; Korea; KIET |
| JEL: | E60 E66 |
| Date: | 2024–05–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:2024_012 |
| By: | Kim, Taehoon (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Han, Jung Min (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Recently, the behavior of the Korean won (KRW) versus the US dollar (USD) has exhibited significant volatility. In 2023 alone, the exchange rate fluctuated by more than KRW 10 on over 50 different days, which has made it difficult to predict future trends. In this paper, we explore how the volatility of the KRW-USD exchange rate has influenced the fortunes of domestic Korean manufacturers. Specifically, we quantitatively examine the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on corporate performance through an empirical analysis of exchange rate data and financial records, and use the findings of the analysis to determine implications for policy. For this work we utilized real effective exchange rate data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Japanese think tank Research Institute of Economy, Trade, & Industry (RIETI). Real effective exchange rate data present exchange rate data in terms of a currency’s purchasing power relative to foreign currencies. A decrease in the real effective exchange rate implies a decrease in any given currency’s purchasing power compared to foreign currencies. Thank you for reading this abstract of a paper by the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade! We are South Korea's premier think tank studying the nexus where trade and industry intersect. |
| Keywords: | exchange rates; exchange rate risk; exchange rate volatility; manufacturing; manufacturing industry; industrial competitiveness; Korean won; US dollar; KRW-USD exchange rate; exchange rate fluctuations; corporate performance; Korea; KIET |
| JEL: | F30 F31 O24 |
| Date: | 2024–05–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:2024_015 |
| By: | Lee, Sul-Ki (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | The global energy landscape is undergoing aseismic shift. As nations move to adopt low-carboneconomies, the focus of policies designedto achieve this have extended beyond climatechange mitigation: the new energy landscapehas become host to a strategic race amongnations to dominate the new energy frontier.Amid this race, South Korea, heavily reliant onimported fossil fuels and emissions-intensiveindustries, finds itself at a crossroads. Striking abalance between economic growth and aggressivedecarbonization is critical. Korea must notonly curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions butalso cultivate a domestic renewable energy industryas a new engine of economic growth. Thank you for reading this abstract of a paper by the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade! We are South Korea's premier think tank studying the nexus where trade and industry intersect. http://www.kiet.re.kr/en https://www.ssrn.com/index.cfm/en/korea- inst-industrial-econ-trade-res/ |
| Keywords: | EU; Carbon Border Adjustrment Mechanism; decarbonization; carbon neutrality; renewable energy; alternative energy; green energy; environmental economics; Korea; KIET |
| JEL: | Q40 Q42 Q43 Q48 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–05–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:2024_013 |
| By: | Statistical Analysis Division, Economic Outlook (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Robust exports drove economic growth in South Korea in the first half of2024 (H1 2024), even as inflation and high interest rates weighed on domesticdemand. Inflation has eroded purchasing power and consumption whilehigh interest rates have made household debt more difficult to manage. Regardingfacilities investment, there was a temporary surge in semiconductorinvestments earlier this year, but overall investments remained weak due tothe high cost of financing, the uncertain economic outlook, and domesticand international uncertainties. Construction investment saw a brief reboundat the beginning of the year as the prices of construction materials stabilized, but over the course of the year’s first six months construction investmentremained slack due to the ongoing slump in the real estate market and concernsover project financing failures. In contrast, exports were a bright spot, with semiconductors leading the way, and steady increases in the automotiveand shipbuilding sectors. Import growth was limited, contributing to a tradesurplus that has lasted for 11 consecutive months as of April 2024. Industrial production has recorded positive year-over-year (YoY) growthsince August of 2023, bolstered by a recovery in Mining and manufacturingproduction, which had been sluggish until the first half of 2023. Semiconductors, which represent the largest share of manufacturing production, began to rebound in H2 2023. Production and shipments of chips surged by45 and 39 percent, respectively, in the first quarter of 2024 compared to thesame period last year, significantly contributing to the improvement of themanufacturing economy. Thank you for reading this abstract of a paper by the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade! We are South Korea's premier think tank studying the nexus where trade and industry intersect. http://www.kiet.re.kr/en https://www.ssrn.com/index.cfm/en/korea- inst-industrial-econ-trade-res/ |
| Keywords: | economic outlook; economic projection; macroeconomy; real economy; 2024 economy; 2024 economic performance; 2024 second half outlook; H2 2024 outlook; Korea; KIET |
| JEL: | E60 E66 |
| Date: | 2024–05–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:2024_011 |
| By: | Victoria Y. Fan (Center for Global Development); Sun Kim (Harvard University); Diego Pineda (University of California at Berkeley); Stefano M. Bertozzi (University of California at Berkeley) |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic exposed critical gaps in the global response to health crises, particularly in the financing of pandemic prevention, preparedness, response, recovery, and reconstruction. This paper presents a comprehensive framework for pandemic financing that spans the entire pandemic cycle, emphasizing the need for timely, adequate, and effective financial resources. The framework is designed to support policymakers in both low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and high-income nations, providing a guide to appropriate financing tools for each stage of a pandemic, from prevention and preparedness to response and recovery. Key economic concepts such as global public goods, time preference, and incentives are explored to underscore the complexities of pandemic financing. The paper also highlights the importance of timely, accessible, and sustainable financial instruments. The paper lists the pandemic financing instruments used for health during the COVID-19 pandemic, identifying 23 different tools. We also used the IHME 2024 Financing Global Health database to estimate that US$91.6 billion was spent for COVID-19 health support, primarily for response financing, over 2020 to 2023. The COVID-19 pandemic wrought significant economic impacts on the order of trillions of dollars, even as investments in pandemic preparedness to mitigate future risks is relatively small, on the order of $10 billion annually. The paper concludes with policy recommendations, calling for the establishment of a rapid-response financing mechanism, tailored to the unique challenges of pandemics, and a redesign of global health governance to better address these threats. |
| Date: | 2024–08–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:334 |
| By: | Christian Bittner; Falko Fecht; Melissa Pala; Farzad Saidi |
| Abstract: | Do economic incentives govern information diffusion in markets? Using international banks’ advisory activities in corporate takeovers as their source of private information, we show in supervisory data that banks with closer ties to the target, but not the acquirer, advisor trade profitably in the target’s stock prior to the deal announcement. This trading behavior is associated with a higher premium paid by the acquirer without compromising the deal success. As the incentives of informed traders are aligned only with those of the target shareholders, which are represented by the target advisor, our evidence suggests strategic information transmission among these banks. |
| Keywords: | bank networks, trading, information transmission, mergers and acquisitions, syndicated lending |
| JEL: | D22 G14 G20 G21 L14 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_587 |
| By: | Andras Komaromi; Xiaomin Wu; Ran Pan; Yang Liu; Pablo Cisneros; Anchal Manocha; Hiba El Oirghi |
| Abstract: | The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has expanded its online learning program, offering over 100 Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) to support economic and financial policymaking worldwide. This paper explores the application of Artificial Intelligence (AI), specifically Large Language Models (LLMs), to analyze qualitative feedback from participants in these courses. By fine-tuning a pre-trained LLM on expert-annotated text data, we develop models that efficiently classify open-ended survey responses with accuracy comparable to human coders. The models’ robust performance across multiple languages, including English, French, and Spanish, demonstrates its versatility. Key insights from the analysis include a preference for shorter, modular content, with variations across genders, and the significant impact of language barriers on learning outcomes. These and other findings from unstructured learner feedback inform the continuous improvement of the IMF's online courses, aligning with its capacity development goals to enhance economic and financial expertise globally. |
| Date: | 2024–08–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/166 |
| By: | Katja Kalkschmied (Vienna School of International Studies, Austria); Joern Kleinert (University of Graz, Austria) |
| Abstract: | We analyse the building of markets, the central institutions in modern societies. We base our analysis on a game-theoretic approach that formalises how markets are built in a decentralised manner by the strategic interactions of actors whose expectations have to be aligned. Markets organize economic exchange among many participants whose action choices may be anonymous and simultaneous but always are interdependent. Private and state actors invest in the building of markets to reduce transaction costs and enable growth. Those who invest in market building critically influence which of the many possible market solutions evolve. In three case studies, we describe how private investment in information management, as well as standardisation and the development of products, creates and stabilises markets. We discuss how the state uses regulation, market participation, information management, and public investment to ensure that private initiatives can take place and that what evolves out of private initiatives remains in accordance with societal goals. |
| Keywords: | Strategic interactions, Market building, Private investment, State intervention. |
| JEL: | E02 L10 P51 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grz:wpaper:2024-12 |
| By: | Grimshaw, Damian; Bertranou, Fabio; Gontero, Sonia; Urrutia, Antonia |
| Abstract: | Este documento aborda en forma sintética las posibilidades y desafíos del establecimiento de un sistema de negociación colectiva multinivel en Chile a partir de la revisión de la experiencia internacional reciente en países como Australia, Nueva Zelanda, Dinamarca y otros miembros de la OCDE. Todo proceso de reforma o modificación del sistema de negociación colectiva debe considerar las ventajas y los principales desafíos a los que se enfrentan los actores tripartitos del mundo del trabajo, incluyendo los beneficios económicos, las complejidades institucionales, los últimos desarrollos con relación a los cambios en la dinámica de la producción y organización del trabajo, la construcción de capacidades de los interlocutores sociales y las opciones de política pública. En particular, este documento aborda cuatro aspectos relevantes: los fundamentos del diálogo social, las características de la negociación colectiva multinivel coordinada; los beneficios de la negociación colectiva multinivel y algunas alternativas de política pública. |
| Keywords: | negociación colectiva multinivel, diálogo social, instituciones laborales, Chile, OCDE |
| JEL: | J50 J52 J58 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121701 |
| By: | Freilich, Janet; Meurer, Michael; Schankerman, Mark (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Schuett, Florian (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:542fd552-53b8-47b0-8acf-4b1953cb824e |
| By: | Bruno Pires Tiberto; Francisco Fernando Viana Ferreira |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic had a strong impact on the global economy, causing turmoil in financial markets and instability in the dynamics of capital flows. Using quarterly data extracted from Local Banking Statistics, published by the Bank for International Settlements, this study examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on cross-border banking flows in recipient countries. Using an unbalanced panel of 20 advanced economies and 34 emerging market economies, we investigate the effects of COVID-19 pandemic on cross-border banking total flows. In addition, we also assess the effects of COVID-19 pandemic on the distribution of cross-border banking flows to the bank and non-bank sectors as well as to the instruments: loans and debt securities. Our results suggest the COVID-19 pandemic changed the destination of cross-border banking flows, deepening the concentration of capital flows to advanced economies. We also found evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic led to a reallocation of cross-border banking flows across economic sector, from the bank to the non-bank sector, as well as by type of financial instrument, from loans to debt securities. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:598 |
| By: | Gong, Yaping; Khan, Muhammad Aamir; TAM, Kar Yan |
| Abstract: | Fintech, which refers to various technologies (e.g., apps and software) that improve the delivery and/or use of financial activities, is increasingly applied in the financial services industry. However, little is known about the competencies of employees working with fintech (hereafter, ‘fintech employees’). We developed a competency model for fintech employees and then generated and validated instruments for assessing their competencies. In Study 1, we developed a competency model with 13 competencies for fintech employees through interviews and a survey. In Study 2, we followed the standard scale development process (i.e., item generation, content validity assessment, exploratory factor analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, and predictive validity assessment) to develop and validate items for assessing seven selected competencies. In Study 3, we checked the predictive validity of these competencies by testing our hypotheses. In general, these competencies predicted different aspects of fintech employee performance outcomes. Overall, we demonstrated the reliability, validity, and incremental predictive validity of the seven competencies. |
| Date: | 2024–07–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:g9e7j |
| By: | Zachary Wojtowicz |
| Abstract: | As generative foundation models improve, they also tend to become more persuasive, raising concerns that AI automation will enable governments, firms, and other actors to manipulate beliefs with unprecedented scale and effectiveness at virtually no cost. The full economic and social ramifications of this trend have been difficult to foresee, however, given that we currently lack a complete theoretical understanding of why persuasion is costly for human labor to produce in the first place. This paper places human and AI agents on a common conceptual footing by formalizing informational persuasion as a mathematical decision problem and characterizing its computational complexity. A novel proof establishes that persuasive messages are challenging to discover (NP-Hard) but easy to adopt if supplied by others (NP). This asymmetry helps explain why people are susceptible to persuasion, even in contexts where all relevant information is publicly available. The result also illuminates why litigation, strategic communication, and other persuasion-oriented activities have historically been so human capital intensive, and it provides a new theoretical basis for studying how AI will impact various industries. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.07923 |
| By: | Peter Grajzl; Peter Murrell |
| Abstract: | Most development models emphasize a growth in the scope of individual choice as the law becomes impartial, relevant to all. An early expression of this conceptualization appeared in the 19th century, when Henry Maine coined his celebrated dictum that progressive societies move from status to contract. We conduct a macro-historical quantitative inquiry into Maine's dictum using corpora on 16th- to 18th-century caselaw and print culture. Upon conceptualizing the notions of contract and status, we train word embeddings on each corpus and produce time series of emphases on contract, status, and contract versus status. Only caselaw exhibits an increasing emphasis on contract versus status, and even that trend is discernible only before the Civil War. After 1660 in caselaw, emphases on both contract and status increase, with no trend in contract versus status. After 1660, caselaw trends reflect the increasing importance of equity compared to common-law. In print culture, religion consistently emphasizes contract over status, while politics exhibits a downward-trending emphasis on contract versus status. VAR estimates reveal that the applicable ideas in caselaw and print culture coevolved. |
| Keywords: | contract versus status, Henry Maine, early-modern England, machine learning, caselaw, print culture |
| JEL: | K10 Z10 N00 P10 C80 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11246 |
| By: | Pettersson, Nicklas (Örebro University School of Business); Kelemen, Katalin (Örebro University, School of Behavioural, Social and Legal Sciences) |
| Abstract: | We present a systematic quantitative approach how to analyze the reasons that judges in Nordic countries publicly adduce for their decisions in constitutional matters, as implemented in the Nordic CONREASONProject. Based on encodings of forty (per court) purposively selected landmark cases, common traits and patterns of constitutional argumentative practices in each of the Nordic supreme courts were identi ed and an international comparison were made to courts from related studies. Our results provided strong support that, regarding speci c aspects (on a univariate level), one or more courts typically tended to deviate from the other Nordic courts. Also, in a multivariate worldwide comparison there were variation between the Nordic supreme courts. However, although not detached from other supreme courts, the Nordic supreme courts seemed to occupy an area of their own on the international map of constitutional reasoning. |
| Keywords: | constitutional reasoning; quantitative comparative law; empirical legal studies; Nordic exceptionalism; realist decision-making |
| JEL: | C10 C38 C53 K10 K40 N40 |
| Date: | 2024–08–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2024_007 |
| By: | Marina Albanese; Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Ida Colella; Nicola Spagnolo |
| Abstract: | This study provides new evidence on the impact of climate physical risk (as measured by the Global Climate Risk Index (CRI) from Germanwatch) on stock market returns. Specifically, a panel model with fixed effects is estimated using annual data from 2007 to 2021 for a set of 65 countries as well as for a subset of 18 Asian ones, which are also divided in two clusters on the basis of their degree of market capitalisation. The results suggest a negative impact of climate physical risk on stock markets; this effect is more pronounced in Asian countries with lower market capitalisation, which are perceived as riskier. |
| Keywords: | climate change, physical risk, Global Climate Risk Index, stock markets, Asia, panel data, fixed effects |
| JEL: | C33 G12 G18 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11222 |