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on Investment |
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Issue of 2024‒08‒26
68 papers chosen by |
| By: | Rafael Machado Parente |
| Abstract: | How do minimum wages affect earnings inequality in countries with large informal sectors? I provide reduced-form evidence that the 2000s minimum wage hike in Brazil raised overall inequality by increasing inequality inside the informal sector. I develop a model where heterogeneous firms select into informality to investigate when and how raising the minimum wage can increase inequality. I calibrate the model to Brazil and find that, by generating substantial informality, the increase in the minimum wage raised overall inequality by 6.4%. These results suggest that movements into and out of the informal sector modulate the effects of formal labor legislation. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wages; Inequality; Informality |
| Date: | 2024–07–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/159 |
| By: | Randriamarolo-Malavaux, Marie Rose |
| Abstract: | In a context of increased milk price volatility and dairy farm modernization, our study aims to shed light on whether the costs associated with the financial investments made when acquiring technologies and their maintenance costs exacerbate the damage suffered when the price becomes volatile, or whether the expected productivity gains actually help to cope with this market hazard. To do this, we distinguish three farm categories according to three separate variables that approximate the level of technological tools used. Then, we estimate the variation in the level of viability of each group when price volatility changes. We apply fixed effect ordered logistic regression on data gathered from the French farm accountancy data network from 2002 to 2020. Sample is divided into three categories according to their levels of intensification and use of technological tools. We estimated separately the viability models of each category to check for heterogeneity. Our results show positive roles of low intensification and moderate use of technological equipment in mitigating the impact of an increase of milk price volatility on dairy farm viability. These contribute to provide insights on farmers’ coping strategies effectiveness and the extent to which modernization is advantageous. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Dairy Production/Industries, Financial Economics, Productivity Analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2023–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:haaepa:344217 |
| By: | Jose M. Betancourt; Ali Hortaçsu; Aniko Öry; Kevin R. Williams |
| Abstract: | We study dynamic price competition between sellers offering differentiated products with limited capacity and a common sales deadline. In every period, firms simultaneously set prices, and a randomly arriving buyer decides whether to purchase a product or leave the market. Given remaining capacities, firms trade off selling today against shifting demand to competitors to obtain future market power. We provide conditions for the existence and uniqueness of pure-strategy Markov perfect equilibria. In the continuous-time limit, prices solve a system of ordinary differential equations. We derive properties of equilibrium dynamics and show that prices increase the most when the product with the lowest remaining capacity sells. Because firms do not fully internalize the social option value of future sales, equilibrium prices can be inefficiently low such that both firms and consumers would benefit if firms could commit to higher prices. We term this new welfare effect the Bertrand scarcity trap. |
| JEL: | C7 D04 D6 L0 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32673 |
| By: | Durian, Q.A.B.; Atienza, L.M.; Esguerra, G.A. |
| Abstract: | Food insecurity, linked to poor diet quality and diversity, heightens vulnerability to malnutrition, particularly in fishing households due to poverty, income seasonality, and environmental shifts. This study investigates food security, dietary diversity, and nutritional status of children (36 to 59 months) from fishing households in San Pablo City, Laguna, Philippines. Purposive sampling yielded eighty-six (86) households with a 100% participation rate. Food security and dietary diversity were assessed using Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS) and Food Consumption Score (FCS) while the nutritional status of the children was derived from the Oplan Timbang Plus (OPT+) data in March 2023. Mean, frequency, percentage calculations, and Kendall’s rank correlation test (α=0.05) were used for data analysis. Results indicated that majority of the household heads earn less than Php 10, 000 (44.2%) and spend less than Php 7, 000 (75.6%) on food every month. Only (5.8%) were food-secure while the rest were food insecure, classified as moderate (45.3%), mild (39.5%), and severe (9.3%). Most households have acceptable food consumption (70.9%) with a mean FCS of 55.6 ± 20.6. Stunting (45.3%), underweight (36.1%), and wasting (19.8%) were observed among the preschool children. Kendall’s rank tau tests demonstrated a positive moderate correlation between household food security status and dietary diversity (CI:95%, p=0.0040, τ=0.2902) and monthly income (CI:95%, p=0.0141, τ=0.2332). Stunting and underweight were also strongly and moderately correlated to household food insecurity (CI:95%, p=2.11e-05, τ=0.4152; CI:95%, p=0.0027, τ=0.2969) and poor dietary diversity (CI:95%, p=0.0474, τ=0.2004). The persistence of food insecurity and malnutrition necessitates effective interventions and policies targeting children and vulnerable groups in fishing communities. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2024–04–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:asea24:344453 |
| By: | Kawabata, Chiaki; Takahara, Tsuyoshi |
| Abstract: | We consider an environment wherein a multidisciplinary firm providing audit (AS) and non-audit services (NAS) competes with an AS-specialty firm and a NAS-specialty firm, and show how we should intervene in the markets for AS quality improvement. We assume that the multidisciplinary firm faces the service provision restriction: it cannot provide the NAS to the clients who purchase its AS and maximize the total profit (centralized decision). We find that policies which intensify competition do not necessarily improve and may rather reduce the AS quality since such policies incentivize the multidisciplinary audit firm to earn profits in the NAS market by moving away from competing in the AS market. Moreover, the multidisciplinary firm's separation is the most effective policy for AS quality improvement, as it allows the service provider to avoid the service provision constraint and delegate their decision in audit quality. |
| Keywords: | Separation of Multidisciplinary Firm, Hotelling Model, Audit Service Competition |
| JEL: | G34 L51 M42 |
| Date: | 2024–05–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120907 |
| By: | Bello, Lateef Olalekan; Awotide, Bola Amoke; Abbeam, GideonDanso; Sakurai, Takeshi |
| Abstract: | Climate change remains a major impediment to food security in majority of developing countries, such as the West Africa Sahel (WASR), due to the rudimentary and rain-fed production system practiced by most farmers. The adoption of climate-smart agricultural technologies (CSAT), which aim to increase resilience and adaptation to changing climatic conditions, is crucial for boosting crop productivity and increasing food sufficiency. This study examined the food security impact of smallholder farmers adopting CSAT in WASR (Mali and Niger). We control for potential endogeneity bias that could occur in this study by employing the extended ordered probit and multinomial endogenous treatment effect model to analyze food security impact using the two most common approaches, which are the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS) and Food Consumption Scores (FCS). The impact results from the HFIAS estimation indicate that CSAT adopters are more food insecure than non-adopters in WASR. Subsequently, the FCS estimation results show that smallholder farmers adopting CSAT are less food secure than non- adopters. Further analysis of mechanisms and pathways to food security revealed that CSAT 2 Copyright 2024 by Lateef Olalekan Bello, Bola Amoke Awotide, Gideon-Danso-Abbeam, and Takeshi Sakurai. All rights reserved. Readers may make verbatim copies of this document for non-commercial purposes by any means, provided that this copyright notice appears on all such copies. adopters significantly reduced the share of crop production they retained for household consumption compared to non-adopters. Subsequent findings revealed that adopters of CSAT generate significantly higher crop revenues than non-adopters. This implies that CSAT adopters sell the majority of their marketable surplus and retain a minor share for household consumption. These findings suggest that farm-level sensitization programs could emphasize the need for farmers to strike a balance between agricultural investment and food security. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Security and Poverty, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cfcp15:344323 |
| By: | King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | Hydrogen is projected to play an important role in meeting decarbonization targets. Hydrocarbon-rich countries perceive this as an opportunity to decarbonize existing assets and monetize undeveloped hydrocarbon reserves. Meanwhile, non-traditional energy exporters rich in renewable energy resources view hydrogen as an opportunity to improve grid stability and a means to export surplus electricity. |
| Keywords: | Carbon, Carbon capture and storage, Carbon neutrality, Hydrogen |
| Date: | 2023–03–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:wbrief:ks--2022-wb08 |
| By: | Alturki, Hala |
| Abstract: | There has been a major crackdown from the Saudi government this year (2024) on pilgrims performing the Hajj without a permit. The Hajj pilgrimage, one of the five pillars of the Islamic faith, continues to draw millions of devotees annually, despite the significant sacrifices, risks, and discomforts faced by those who journey without official permits. This paper delves into the underlying motives and compounded complexities driving pilgrims to undertake the Hajj without permit, examining factors such as spiritual obligation, economic barriers, and limited accessibility. By unraveling underpinning issues, the study sheds light on the shortcomings of the existing infrastructure and urban setup, which fuel the persistent demand for unauthorized Hajj participation. It emphasizes integrating past insights and present-day realities, to draw a holistic urban strategy to manage pilgrim influx sustainably while fostering economic opportunities. The proposed model advocates for interdisciplinary collaboration and community engagement to refine urban planning, preserve cultural heritage, and enhance the pilgrimage experience. Ultimately, this approach aims to ensure Makkah's continued role as a spiritual hub while addressing the evolving needs of pilgrims and residents alike. |
| Date: | 2024–07–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:egdn4 |
| By: | Keith Finlay; Elizabeth Luh; Michael G. Mueller-Smith |
| Abstract: | The United States criminal justice system is characterized by substantial disparities in outcomes across racial and ethnic groups. Understanding these disparities requires accurate measures of race and ethnicity of people involved in the justice system. We document how race and ethnicity are recorded by administrative agents and how operational concerns limit corrections to misreported race and ethnicity. To understand the impacts of these administrative processes, this paper uses novel linkages between person-level microdata from the Criminal Justice Administrative Records System (CJARS) and race and ethnicity composites from U.S. Census Bureau census and administrative records, mostly composed of self-reported or family-reported race/ethnicity, to quantify mismeasurement of race and ethnicity in the justice system. We find that 17 percent of misdemeanor and felony defendants and 10 percent of prison inmates have an agency-recorded label that does not concord with the composite measure, largely driven by justice agencies poorly measuring people identified in Census Bureau data as Hispanic, Asian, Pacific Islander, or American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN). Using estimated correspondences between agency-recorded and the composite race and ethnicity, we reweight federal series on imprisonment rates and show that those series, which currently rely on small survey samples to impute racial and ethnic population shares, have substantially underestimated the incarceration rates of Whites, Blacks, and AIANs. |
| JEL: | J15 K42 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32657 |
| By: | Mounir Bellari (EMSI - Ecole Marocaine des Sciences de l'Ingénieur) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this article is to understand the reasons that motivate Moroccan companies to manage their results in accounting terms, and to identify the various techniques used by company directors to satisfy such motivations. A series of interviews (38), with experts in accounting and finance, revealed that unlisted companies manipulate their earnings primarily to reduce the tax burden. Listed companies, on the other hand, do so to satisfy potential investors by embellishing their financial performance. To put these practices into practice, these companies prefer to use techniques for smoothing the accounting result, with the main operation being the estimation of provisions. However, one of the limitations of this study is that it focuses on manipulative practices that are, by their very nature, concealed, and therefore difficult for company management to address. To enhance its significance, such a study could be supported by a quantitative analysis, or even a qualitative case study to provide greater objectivity. |
| Abstract: | Résumé : Cet article a pour objectif de comprendre les raisons qui incitent les entreprises marocaines à gérer comptablement leurs résultats et de détecter les diverses techniques mobilisées par les dirigeants de ces entreprises pour satisfaire de telles motivations. Une série d'entretiens (38), avec des experts du domaine comptable et financier, a révélé que les sociétés non cotées manipulent leurs résultats essentiellement pour réduire le fardeau fiscal. En revanche, les sociétés cotées le font pour satisfaire les investisseurs potentiels via un embellissement de leurs performances financières. Pour matérialiser ces pratiques, ces sociétés privilégient les techniques de lissage du résultat comptable, avec comme principale opération, l'estimation des provisions. Cependant, parmi les limites de l'étude, c'est qu'elle s'intéresse à des pratiques de manipulation qui sont, par nature, dissimulées, et donc difficiles à aborder par le management de la société. Pour plus de significativité, un tel travail pourrait être épaulé par une étude quantitative, voire qualitative via l'outil étude de cas pour plus d'objectivité. Mots clés : Gestion comptable des résultats, étude exploratoire, entretiens semi-directifs. Classification JEL : M41. Type du papier : Recherche appliquée. Abstract: The aim of this article is to understand the reasons that motivate Moroccan companies to manage their results in accounting terms, and to identify the various techniques used by company directors to satisfy such motivations. A series of interviews (38), with experts in accounting and finance, revealed that unlisted companies manipulate their earnings primarily to reduce the tax burden. Listed companies, on the other hand, do so to satisfy potential investors by embellishing their financial performance. To put these practices into practice, these companies prefer to use techniques for smoothing the accounting result, with the main operation being the estimation of provisions. However, one of the limitations of this study is that it focuses on manipulative practices that are, by their very nature, concealed, and therefore difficult for company management to address. To enhance its significance, such a study could be supported by a quantitative analysis, or even a qualitative case study to provide greater objectivity. Keywords: Earnings management, acrruals, exploratory study, semi-structured interviews. JEL classification: M41. Paper Type: Empirical research. |
| Keywords: | Gestion comptable des résultats étude exploratoire entretiens semi-directifs. Classification JEL : M41. Type du papier : Recherche appliquée Earnings management acrruals exploratory study semi-structured interviews. JEL classification: M41. Paper Type: Empirical research, Gestion comptable des résultats, étude exploratoire, entretiens semi-directifs. Classification JEL : M41. Type du papier : Recherche appliquée Earnings management, acrruals, exploratory study, semi-structured interviews. JEL classification: M41. Paper Type: Empirical research |
| Date: | 2024–07–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04661003 |
| By: | Fulton, Lew; Yang, Chris; Burke, Andrew; Acharya, Tri Dev; Bourne, Beth; Coffee, Daniel; Kong, David |
| Abstract: | To achieve California’s ambitious climate goals, a shift to hydrogen fuel for some transportation sectors may be essential.In this report, we explore the build-out of a hydrogen fuel distribution system including uptake of light-, medium-, and heavy-duty fuel cell electric vehicles. Our analysis of Base and High Case scenarios includes costs of building and operating a hydrogen vehicle and fuel system and estimates workforce impacts. We consider scenarios with about 125, 000 vehicles by 2030 in the Base Case and 250, 000 in the high case. This increases by an order of magnitude to 2045. Vehicle and station investment costs associated with the Base Case reach anywhere from $4 to 12 billion USD by 2030 and increase by a factor of eight by 2045. Costs per kg of hydrogen, including fuel transmission to stations and station costs delivered to vehicles, could be in the range of $4 to 8 per kg. This becomes $6 to 10/kg as a final delivered cost, if production of hydrogen were to cost $2/kg. Workforce impacts in the Base Case include 600 to 2, 200 jobs created by 2030, rising rapidly thereafter. This report was prepared by the ITS-UC Davis Energy Futures Hydrogen Program in partnership with the UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Hydrogen fuels, fuel cell vehicles, electric vehicles, market penetration, capital costs, economic impacts, jobs |
| Date: | 2024–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt133538gw |
| By: | Kamila Zaman; Alberto Marchisio; Muhammad Kashif; Muhammad Shafique |
| Abstract: | Portfolio Optimization (PO) is a financial problem aiming to maximize the net gains while minimizing the risks in a given investment portfolio. The novelty of Quantum algorithms lies in their acclaimed potential and capability to solve complex problems given the underlying Quantum Computing (QC) infrastructure. Utilizing QC's applicable strengths to the finance industry's problems, such as PO, allows us to solve these problems using quantum-based algorithms such as Variational Quantum Eigensolver (VQE) and Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA). While the Quantum potential for finance is highly impactful, the architecture and composition of the quantum circuits have not yet been properly defined as robust financial frameworks/algorithms as state of the art in present literature for research and design development purposes. In this work, we propose a novel scalable framework, denoted PO-QA, to systematically investigate the variation of quantum parameters (such as rotation blocks, repetitions, and entanglement types) to observe their subtle effect on the overall performance. In our paper, the performance is measured and dictated by convergence to similar ground-state energy values for resultant optimal solutions by each algorithm variation set for QAOA and VQE to the exact eigensolver (classical solution). Our results provide effective insights into comprehending PO from the lens of Quantum Machine Learning in terms of convergence to the classical solution, which is used as a benchmark. This study paves the way for identifying efficient configurations of quantum circuits for solving PO and unveiling their inherent inter-relationships. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.19857 |
| By: | Giancarlo Ianulardo (University of Exeter Business School - University of Exeter); Aldo Stella (UNIPG - Università degli Studi di Perugia = University of Perugia) |
| Abstract: | In an article entitled "Agency, functionalism and all that. A Sraffian view", published in the Journal of Philosophical Economics, Professor Cesaratto (2024) has proposed a functionalist methodology to study the relation between agency and structure. In doing so, he made some criticisms of an article of ours that had previously appeared in the same journal in issue XV, entitled "Towards a unity of sense: a critical analysis of the concept of relation in methodological individualism and holism in economics" (Ianulardo and Stella, 2022). We take Cesaratto's critique as an invitation to a dialogue on the methodology of the social sciences, and we would like to clarify some aspects in response to his critique. In essence, we clarify that our article consisted of two parts, which we can call pars destruens and pars construens, respectively. In the first, we show that while the determinate identity of the individual postulated by methodological individualism cannot stand without reference to difference, the relational methodology postulated by methodological holism requires its terms (i.e. individuals) to stand as a relation. In the second part, we make it clear that the sense of unity to which we have referred is not represented by an actual community, but by the drive towards unity that is common to all individuals when they intend to form a social entity (group, class, nation, party, institution etc.). Every unification makes it possible to shed new light on the moments that led to it. In this sense, we have spoken of a teleological perspective, since the end point allows us to re-signify the intermediate moments that led to it. |
| Keywords: | Methodological individualism methodological holism teleology relation unity, Methodological individualism, methodological holism, teleology, relation, unity |
| Date: | 2024–07–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04528106 |
| By: | Theodore F. Figinski; Sydney Keenan; Richard James Sweeney; Erin Troland |
| Abstract: | In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Congress established the Emergency Rental Assistance (ERA) program, which provided nearly $45 billion to prevent evictions and increase housing stability. We provide new evidence on the implementation of ERA by examining the fine-grained geographic distribution of ERA funds and the timing of ERA expenditures by state and local governments. Using administrative data on ERA transactions, we find that ERA sent more funds per renting household to census tracts with higher pre-pandemic eviction filing rates, higher poverty rates, higher shares of Black renters, higher shares of renting households with children, and higher shares of renting single mothers. Our results suggest that ERA was largely successful in reaching communities that were most likely to have the highest risk of eviction. We also document that ERA spending increased substantially around the expiration of the federal eviction moratorium and at a time when eviction filings were increasing, which may confound quasi-experimental analysis of ERA. |
| Keywords: | Eviction filings; Pandemic relief programs; Emergency rental assistance |
| JEL: | R28 H20 H52 |
| Date: | 2024–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-55 |
| By: | Bayudan-Dacuycuy, Connie; Vargas, Anna Rita P.; Epetia, Ma. Christina F.; Ocbina, John Joseph S. |
| Abstract: | In the Philippines, skills mismatch has persisted since the 1970s, when the higher education system produced more college graduates than the economy could absorb. Prolonged skills mismatch can result in adverse outcomes such as lower wages, decreased job satisfaction, diminished productivity, and increased turnover rates for individuals and businesses. Addressing skills mismatch requires a well-operating Labor Market Information System (LMIS). This study is an input to the Technical Education and Skills Development Authority (TESDA) Skills Anticipation and Prioritization of Skills Requirements (SAPSR) Framework. The SAPSR is intended primarily as a reference in identifying skills requirements. Viewing SAPSR as an integral part of the broader LMIS, this study reviews the available data, the requisite analytical capabilities/tools, and institutional arrangements to make SAPSR relevant to stakeholders. This study finds that while the country has valuable data sources relevant to the skills needs assessment initiative and has several LMIs in operation, there are several areas for improvements in data and its collection, capability building, and institutional arrangements. Drawing from the idea that the SAPSR is part of a system that involves the engagement of various players, the recommendations forwarded by this paper do not focus on what TESDA alone can do but on areas for collaboration to make the LMIS and SAPSR sustainably successful. The recommendations focus on the following areas: partnerships and institutional arrangements, skills taxonomy and skills-occupation mapping, use of PSOC (highly disaggregated if possible) in data collection, and other skills and labor market initiatives (e.g., PhilJobNet, PESO-Information System, Philippine Skills Framework Initiative), training to harness emerging data sources and conduct qualitative and quantitative methods, dissemination initiatives, and support. Comments on this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | TESDA;labor market information system;skills anticipation and prioritization of skills requirements framework;skills need anticipation;Technical Education and Skills Development Authority |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2024-06 |
| By: | Jones, Melanie K. (Cardiff University); Kaya, Ezgi (Cardiff University); Nan, Jiarui (University of Sheffield) |
| Abstract: | Exploiting rich nationally representative longitudinal data from the China Family Panel Studies this paper explores the relationship between overeducation, earnings and job satisfaction among graduates in China. We find consistent evidence, across multiple measures of overeducation, of wage and job satisfaction penalties that are not explained by personal and work-related characteristics. Despite attention within the literature, we find a modest role for differences in academic subject and, cognitive and non-cognitive skills as drivers of these penalties. In contrast, controlling for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity reduces the size and, in many cases, removes the statistical significance of overeducation penalties, aligned to the importance of other unobserved individual heterogeneity. |
| Keywords: | overeducation, China, earnings, job satisfaction, cognitive and non-cognitive skills, unobserved heterogeneity |
| JEL: | J24 J28 J31 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17161 |
| By: | Sushant Acharya (CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research); Edouard Challe (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Keshav Dogra (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) |
| Abstract: | We study optimal monetary policy in an analytically tractable heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model with rich cross-sectional heterogeneity. Optimal policy differs from a representative agent benchmark because monetary policy can affect consumption inequality, by stabilizing consumption risk arising from both idiosyncratic shocks and unequal exposures to aggregate shocks. The trade-off between consumption inequality, productive efficiency, and price stability is summarized in a simple linear-quadratic problem yielding interpretable target criteria. Stabilizing consumption inequality requires putting some weight on stabilizing the level of output, and correspondingly reducing the weights on the output gap and price level relative to the representative agent benchmark. |
| Keywords: | New Keynesian Model, Incomplete Markets, Optimal Monetary Policy |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04645687 |
| By: | Michelson, Hope |
| Abstract: | Measurement is not only a way of describing complex realities; it can also transform them by influencing policies and interventions. We are privileged to live in a thrilling era of measurement innovation: new and better methods to deploy, and new ways of adapting familiar and proven apparatus to new problems and contexts. This paper explores how new measurement strategies are providing fresh insights into the circumstances of small-farm household worldwide and describes challenges that these techniques have yet to overcome. Because the small farm sector plays a crucial role in global food security, global value chains and rural livelihoods, understanding its conditions and dynamics is a persistent focus of policymakers and researchers. I discuss how satellite-based assessments of crop yields, tree cover, temperature, and rainfall, laboratory measures of soil and agricultural input quality, GPS-based plot area calculations, labor activity trackers, and high- frequency household surveys conducted via cellular phones are providing improved understanding of fundamental dimensions of small farms and agrarian households. I identify important gaps in what is currently measured, discuss challenges related to implementing and interpreting new measures, and argue that new measurement strategies can be combined effectively with continued sustained investment for traditional “analog measures” – the household and farm surveys that remain fundamental for data collection in low-income countries. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2024–07–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cfcp15:344354 |
| By: | Mario Liebensteiner; Jakob Losert; Sarah Necker; Florian Neumeier; Jörg Paetzold; Sebastian Wichert |
| Abstract: | In 2022, Germany introduced a temporary 9-euro monthly ticket for unlimited local and regional public transport. We investigate its impact on mobility patterns, including increased public transport usage, reduced car traffic, and rail network congestion. Using difference-in-difference and event-study analyses with GPS-based mobility, traffic volume, and rail traffic data, we find limited substitution between transportation modes, a strong increase in leisure train journeys, and notable adverse effects on rail infrastructure quality. These effects dissipate after the ticket’s expiration. Our study suggests caution regarding the expected environmental benefits of nearly fare-free ’go-anywhere’ public transport tickets, which are discussed in several countries. |
| Keywords: | fare-free public transport, mobility patterns, traffic volume, mode choice, transport subsidies |
| JEL: | R12 R41 R42 R48 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11229 |
| By: | Jason R. Blevins |
| Abstract: | Continuous-time formulations of dynamic discrete choice games offer notable computational advantages, particularly in modeling strategic interactions in oligopolistic markets. This paper extends these benefits by addressing computational challenges in order to improve model solution and estimation. We first establish new results on the rates of convergence of the value iteration, policy evaluation, and relative value iteration operators in the model, holding fixed player beliefs. Next, we introduce a new representation of the value function in the model based on uniformization -- a technique used in the analysis of continuous time Markov chains -- which allows us to draw a direct analogy to discrete time models. Furthermore, we show that uniformization also leads to a stable method to compute the matrix exponential, an operator appearing in the model's log likelihood function when only discrete time "snapshot" data are available. We also develop a new algorithm that concurrently computes the matrix exponential and its derivatives with respect to model parameters, enhancing computational efficiency. By leveraging the inherent sparsity of the model's intensity matrix, combined with sparse matrix techniques and precomputed addresses, we show how to significantly speed up computations. These strategies allow researchers to estimate more sophisticated and realistic models of strategic interactions and policy impacts in empirical industrial organization. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.14914 |
| By: | Villarreal, Héctor J.; Hanni, Michael; González, Ivonne; Mondragón, Mireya; López Reynosa, Juan Pablo |
| Abstract: | La región de América Latina y el Caribe experimentó un rápido aumento de precios durante 2022, con tasas de inflación que alcanzaron niveles que no se habían visto en décadas en varios países. Las presiones inflacionarias, que ya eran evidentes en 2021, recibieron un mayor impulso a lo largo del año, en gran medida por el estallido del conflicto entre la Federación de Rusia y Ucrania. Destaca en este sentido el alza marcada en los precios de los alimentos y los productos energéticos, con consecuencias negativas para los costos de producción en una amplia gama de sectores económicos y para el poder adquisitivo de los hogares. Frente a estos choques externos los encargados de tomar decisiones de política en la región adoptaron una variada serie de políticas fiscales para paliar el impacto del incremento de los precios en sus países. En este contexto, resulta oportuno revisar las medidas fiscales implementadas durante 2022 para considerar cómo la política fiscal de la región puede mejorar su respuesta ante choques externos en el futuro. |
| Date: | 2024–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:80454 |
| By: | Kerri Lu; Stephen Bates; Sherrie Wang |
| Abstract: | Remote sensing map products are used to obtain estimates of environmental quantities, such as deforested area or the effect of conservation zones on deforestation. However, the quality of map products varies, and - because maps are outputs of complex machine learning algorithms that take in a variety of remotely sensed variables as inputs - errors are difficult to characterize. Without capturing the biases that may be present, naive calculations of population-level estimates from such maps are statistically invalid. In this paper, we compare several uncertainty quantification methods - stratification, Olofsson area estimation method, and prediction-powered inference - that combine a small amount of randomly sampled ground truth data with large-scale remote sensing map products to generate statistically valid estimates. Applying these methods across four remote sensing use cases in area and regression coefficient estimation, we find that they result in estimates that are more reliable than naively using the map product as if it were 100% accurate and have lower uncertainty than using only the ground truth and ignoring the map product. Prediction-powered inference uses ground truth data to correct for bias in the map product estimate and (unlike stratification) does not require us to choose a map product before sampling. This is the first work to (1) apply prediction-powered inference to remote sensing estimation tasks, and (2) perform uncertainty quantification on remote sensing regression coefficients without assumptions on the structure of map product errors. To improve the utility of machine learning-generated remote sensing maps for downstream applications, we recommend that map producers provide a holdout ground truth dataset to be used for calibration in uncertainty quantification alongside their maps. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.13659 |
| By: | Floudas, Demetrius |
| Abstract: | Upon the commencement of Russia's military intervention in Ukraine in February 2022, a collective response was swiftly initiated by the United States, the European Union, G7 nations, and their allies. This materialised in the form of an unparalleled assemblage of economic, financial, diplomatic, and supplementary sanctions, which have been undergoing successive modifications and additions throughout the ensuing months. Initially, Western analysts forecast dire repercussions for Russia, with some predicting a double-digit decline in gross domestic product. However, actual projections have been significantly revised downward. This paper aims to enumerate and explain in brief the factors that have prevented the Russian economy from a momentous downturn, in spite of the unprecedented extent of imposed sanctions. |
| Keywords: | Russia, sanctions, Ukraine war, Russian economy, rouble, dollar |
| JEL: | E58 F51 F52 H77 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121346 |
| By: | Ferrer, Jacobo (New School for Social Research, United States); Martínez-González, Adrián (Universidad National Autonoma de Mexico); Torres-González, Luis Daniel (Universidad National Autonoma de Mexico) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a reconstruction and evaluation of the theory of international relative prices (IRP) based on the theory of ‘real competition’.The main thesis of the theory is that the long-run behavior of the IRP of tradable commodity bundles is exclusively determined by their relative total unit labor costs (RTULC). This is equivalent to the assertion that the total profits-wages ratios (TPWR) of these two bundles are sufficiently similar over time and, therefore, neutral in the long run. We identified a set of issues that cast doubt on the strength of the theory. Firstly, due to accounting considerations, the proposed hypotheses cannot constrain IRP to depend solely on the RTULC. Secondly, the theoretical and empirical arguments put forth by the literature to constrain the TPWR are weak. The paper presents a comprehensive investigation of industries’ TPWR, which reveals that their statistical regularities do not align with the constraints necessary for the validity of the theory’s core thesis. |
| Keywords: | real exchange rates; terms of trade; absolute advantage; unit labor costs; capital intensities. |
| Date: | 2024–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:sraffa:0067 |
| By: | Schwartz, Herman M. |
| Abstract: | What explains the US dollar's role in the global economy and the tensions affecting its likely persistence? Most analyses start from Triffin's dilemma, which accurately captured specific but partial tensions of a global monetary system based on essentially fixed exchange rates, gold backing for its core currency, and relatively robust capital controls. Triffin's approach, and those based on it, struggles to explain the tensions in a system with floating exchange rates and fiat money, because Triffin and successors assume a commodity theory of money, a loanable funds model for credit creation, and the "triple coincidence" of monetary, legal, and economic zones. Approaching the question from different premises - chartalist money, endogenous credit creation, and interlocked global balance sheets - enables us to see four factors behind the antinomies or dilemmas that structure the dynamics and durability of US dollar centrality. Those four factors are adequate credit creation and thus global aggregate demand growth, current account deficits for the core, domestic legitimacy in major economies, and the dollar's status as global quasi-state money. |
| Abstract: | Wie lässt sich die Bedeutung des US-Dollars in der Weltwirtschaft erklären? Was hat das mit den Spannungen auf sich, die über den Fortbestand der Dollar-Dominanz entscheiden? Die meisten Analysen nehmen das Triffin-Dilemma zum Ausgangspunkt, das spezifische Spannungen des globalen Geldsystems einst gut erfasste. Dieses System basierte im Wesentlichen auf festen Wechselkursen, einer goldgedeckten Leitwährung und Kapitalverkehrskontrollen. Triffins Ansatz und darauf aufgebaute Analysen haben aber Schwierigkeiten, wenn es um die Spannungen in einem Geldsystem mit Fiatgeld und frei schwankenden Wechselkursen geht. Triffin und seine Nachfolger nahmen die Warentheorie des Geldes und das Loanable-Funds-Modell der Kreditschöpfung als stimmig und die dreifache Koinzidenz von Währungs-, Rechts- und Wirtschaftsräumen als gegeben an. Wenn wir das Problem hingegen unter den Prämissen des chartalistischen Geldes, der endogenen Kreditschöpfung und miteinander verzahnter globaler Bilanzen betrachten, lassen sich hinter den Unvereinbarkeiten und Dilemmata vier Faktoren erkennen, die für die Dynamiken und die Dauerhaftigkeit der Dollar-Dominanz entscheidend sind: eine angemessene Kreditschöpfung und damit ein Wachstum der globalen Gesamtnachfrage; Leistungsbilanzdefizite der Kernländer; innenpolitische Legitimität in den großen Volkswirtschaften; und der Status des Dollars als globales Quasi-Staatsgeld. |
| Keywords: | Balance of payments, foreign debt, geo-economics, international financial system, money, power, reserve currency, Auslandsverschuldung, Geld, Geoökonomie, internationales Finanzsystem, Leitwährung, Macht, Zahlungsbilanz |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mpifgd:300666 |
| By: | Ivan Yotzov; Nicholas Bloom; Philip Bunn; Paul Mizen; Gregory Thwaites |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the response of firms to monthly CPI inflation releases using high-frequency data from a large economy-wide business survey. CPI inflation perceptions respond very quickly, in a matter of hours after the release. We also find that firms’ expected own-price growth has a strong positive correlation with changes in CPI inflation, particularly for increases in inflation. This sensitivity is stronger when inflation is high. Firms are also more responsive when inflation coverage in the media is elevated and appear to have had a supply-side view of the economy since 2022: higher aggregate inflation leads to lower expected sales volume growth and higher expected cost growth. Firms also seem to anticipate the monetary policy response, as positive inflation changes are associated with higher expected borrowing rates. |
| JEL: | C83 D22 D84 E31 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32731 |
| By: | Guy Fournier (Pforzheim University, LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - CentraleSupélec - Université Paris-Saclay); Adrian Boos (Pforzheim University); Dimitri Konstantas (GSEM - Geneva School of Economics and Management); Danielle Attias (LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - CentraleSupélec - Université Paris-Saclay) |
| Abstract: | This open access book explores a vision for a sustainable future in urban mobility through the AVENUE project, showcasing full-scale demonstrations of automated minibuses in European cities. AVENUE pioneers on-demand, door-to-door services, challenging traditional fixed bus itineraries. It delves into the implementation of automated vehicles, emphasizing safety, services, cybersecurity, and accessibility. Part two evaluates the economic, environmental, and social impacts on companies, citizens, and cities. By integrating automated vehicles into Mobility-as-a-Service and Intelligent Transport Systems, the book argues for the using of automated vehicles as game changer towards a transformative shift to sustainable, citizen-centric mobility. It advocates for efficiency, flexibility, and resilience of the transport system without imposing coercive transformation policies. |
| Keywords: | Open Access, Horizon 2020 AVENUE project, Citizen centric, Sustainable mobility, Automated Vehicles in MaaS, Mobility-as-a-Service, Automated Vehicles in ITS, Intelligent Transport System, Cooperative, Connected and Automated mobility, Public Transport Operators, Public Transport Authorities, AV technology provider, OEM, Transformation strategy, Transition management, Change management, Systemic approach, Business models |
| Date: | 2024–07–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04651664 |
| By: | Caleb Bonyi Mukadi Mukandila (UNIKIN - University of Kinshasa, UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | This article examines the historic appointment of Judith Suminwa Tuluka as Prime Minister of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and its implications for gender inclusivity in governance and socio-economic development. It highlights the underrepresentation of women in decision-making roles despite their demographic significance and explores the potential economic benefits of reducing gender inequalities, which could add $11 billion annually to the DRC's GDP by 2033. The article also discusses research linking higher female participation in governance to lower corruption rates and better governance outcomes. It underscores the importance of the Congolese Constitution in supporting female representation and argues that Tuluka's appointment is a significant step towards dismantling gender stereotypes and promoting inclusive development in the DRC. |
| Abstract: | Cet article examine la nomination historique de Judith Suminwa Tuluka au poste de Première ministre de la République Démocratique du Congo (RDC) et ses implications pour l'inclusivité de genre dans la gouvernance et le développement socio-économique. Il souligne la sous-représentation des femmes dans les rôles décisionnels malgré leur importance démographique et explore les avantages économiques potentiels de la réduction des inégalités de genre, ce qui pourrait ajouter 11 milliards de dollars annuellement au PIB de la RDC d'ici 2033. L'article discute également des recherches liant une plus grande participation des femmes à la gouvernance à des taux de corruption plus faibles et à de meilleurs résultats en matière de gouvernance. Il souligne l'importance de la Constitution congolaise pour soutenir la représentation des femmes et soutient que la nomination de Tuluka est une étape significative vers le démantèlement des stéréotypes de genre et la promotion d'un développement inclusif en RDC. |
| Keywords: | Gender Inclusivity, Governance, Socio-economic Development, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Corruption Reduction |
| Date: | 2024–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04650223 |
| By: | Pierre Gaëtant Ango Nguema (CERDIMO - Centre d'Etude et de Recherche en Développement International et du Management des Organisations - INSAB - Institut National Supérieur d'Agronomie et de Biotechnologie - USTM - Université des Sciences et Techniques de Masuku); Sydney Leslie Dibounda Sima (CEP - Centre d'Economie Publique - Institut National des Sciences de Gestion de Libreville) |
| Abstract: | The study examines the distribution of overindebtedness across macroeconomic aggregates by empirically verifying the validity or otherwise of Ricardian equivalence as a main limitation to the analysis of debt sustainability within the panel of Economic and Monetary Community countries. of Central Africa chosen for the period 2000-2023. From the ARDL approach, parameterized as an error correction model (ECM), the results indicate that the level of private investment remains low in the face of episodes of long-term debt crisis, with insignificant effects of tax policy. However, private investment constitutes a channel of transmission of overindebtedness and rejects the principle of Ricardian equivalence (PER), which favors the analysis of debt sustainability (DSA). The results estimated by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Generalized Least Squares (GLM) reveal that consumption is also a channel of transmission of over-indebtedness. However, the tax base plays an important role in this transmission and validates the PER, which tends to limit the DSA of countries in the sub-region. Overall, these results prove the existence of expectations of economic agents in the face of an increase in taxes intended to repay the loan to the extent that these agents are victims or not of the fiscal illusion according to very specific transmission channels. over-indebtedness. These results are robust to a variety of alternative specifications. |
| Keywords: | Équivalence ricardienne Surendettement Politique fiscale ARDL MCG. JEL Classification : B22 C33 E13 F34 Type du papier : Recherche empirique Ricardian equivalence Overindebtedness Fiscal policy ARDL MCG. Classification JEL : B22 C33 E13 F34 Paper type: Empirical Research, Équivalence ricardienne, Surendettement, Politique fiscale, ARDL, MCG. JEL Classification : B22, C33, E13, F34, Type du papier : Recherche empirique Ricardian equivalence, Overindebtedness, Fiscal policy, MCG. Classification JEL : B22, Paper type: Empirical Research |
| Date: | 2024–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04637772 |
| By: | Victor Counillon (CERAG - Centre d'études et de recherches appliquées à la gestion - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Eléonore Disse (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | We are looking to identify what organizational ontology is adapted to integrate ecological issues into accounting and explore how this ontological focus can help building a shared understanding of organizations in the context of ecological crises, by bridging sciences. We adopt a conceptual approach by unveiling the ontological presuppositions underlying some financial and socio-environmental accounting. A hypothetical case study is mobilized to illustrate how C.A.R.E ecological accounting relies on alternative assumptions about the organizational ontology. Ontological presuppositions on organizations are related to the purpose of each accounting framework. Integrating the ecological responsibility of human activities into accounting demands to better consider the impacts organizations have on natural and social entities. "Relational ontologies" seem best adapted to such an understanding. Coupled with a process-based ontology from an extension of traditional accounting, natural and human capitals' uses can be followed and managed. Taking this ontological prism renews the role of accounting: ecological accounting structures and makes sense of information, is fed by and feeds other domain-specific ontologies (e.g. hydrology, climatology, pedology, law, economics). This enables conceptualization of organizational ontology as intrinsically related to these same ontologies. Only then can knowledge generated about organizational processes be rendered relevant in these domains. |
| Keywords: | organization ontology, accounting ontology, ecological accounting, interdisciplinarity, relational ontology, Basic Formal Ontology, natural capital |
| Date: | 2024–07–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04639877 |
| By: | Ben Groom; Frank Venmans |
| Abstract: | An economic approach to calculating the Social Value of Temporary Reductions (SVTR) in atmospheric carbon is discussed. The SVTR allows different carbon removals projects to be prioritised in a way that maximises welfare and establishes equivalence between temporary, risky removals with permanent ones in terms of avoided welfare losses from climate damages. The approach is compared to previous attempts in the physical and natural sciences and economics to price temporary emissions reductions, none of which successfully integrate economics and climate science. Applications of the SVTR exist in public project appraisal, Life Cycle Analysis, pricing carbon debts and determining short term carbon credit and offset contracts. Potential criticisms of equivalence measures and tonne-year accounting stemming from concerns that temporary removals do not impact long-term temperatures are shown to be special cases of our integrated economic approach. Temporary removals provide transitory cooling benefits and if repeated are equivalent to permanent solutions. They also can have permanent effects via learning by doing or reducing the likelihood of tipping points. The SVTR helps determine how temporary removals can fit into an efficient response to climate. Ruling out temporary removals and equivalence, and the intertemporal transfers that they imply, could unnecessarily tie the hands of policy makers. |
| JEL: | Q54 Q57 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32734 |
| By: | Hundt, Carolin; Pothen, Frank |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the availability of post-consumer steel scrap in Europe until 2050. We introduce the indicator potentially available domestic post-consumer scrap (PADPS) which measures the amount of (steel) scrap from obsolete products available for recycling, prior to trade in scrap. We analyze material flow studies from the academic literature and international organizations to quantify this indicator. The studies suggest a rising trend of post-consumer scrap amounts until a saturation level when the expected yearly steel product obsolescence of the system stabilizes. Between 2010 and 2050, PADPS is expected to rise annually by approximately 1.6% per year. We identify in-use steel stocks, recycling rates, and product lifetimes as the three commonly gauged factors determining PADPS. While recycling rates and product lifetimes range comparatively close in the studies, the estimation of in-use stocks displays much greater variation and introduces an element of uncertainty in estimating the post-consumer scrap amounts that can be expected in the coming decades. |
| Abstract: | Dieser Artikel untersucht die Verfügbarkeit von Stahlschrott in Europa bis zum Jahr 2050. Dazu wird der Indikator PADPS (potentially available domestic post-consumer scrap, potenziell verfügbare inländische Altschrottmenge) eingeführt. Dieser gibt den Anfall von Stahlschrott nach Beendigung des Produktlebenszyklus aber vor internationalem Handel mit Schrotten an. Zu diesem Zweck werden Materialflussanalysen aus Wissenschaft und Industrie analysiert. Die Studien deuten auf einen Trend wachsender Altschrottmengen hin, der sich erst beim Erreichen eines Sättigungslevels auf einem gleichbleibenden Niveau jährlich anfallender Schrottmengen stabilisiert. Zwischen 2010 und 2050 wird ein Anstieg von PADPS von ungefähr 1, 6% pro Jahr erwartet. In der Ökonomie befindliche Stahlmengen (Steel Stocks), Recyclingraten und Produktlebenszeiten kristallisieren sich als die Faktoren heraus, die bei der Schätzung von PADPS in Studien am häufigsten bestimmt werden. Recyclingraten und Produktlebenszeiten weisen in den Studien vergleichbare Werte auf. Die Abschätzung der Steel Stocks ist mit größeren Schwankungen behaftet und trägt zu größeren Unsicherheiten bei der Modellierung zukünftig verfügbarer Schrottmengen bei. |
| Keywords: | Steel scrap, steel recycling, post-consumer scrap, steel stocks, Europe, 2050, literature review, Stahlschrott, Stahlrecycling, Altschrott, Steel Stocks, Europa, systematische Literaturanalyse |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fhjwws:300853 |
| By: | Kitchaicharoen, J.; Suebpongsang, P.; Singvejsakul, J.; Pradit, O. |
| Abstract: | The Center for Agricultural Resource Systems Research at the Faculty of Agriculture, Chiang Mai University initiated a project for producing pesticide-free vegetable in the urban agro-ecosystem of Chiang Mai, aiming to serve as a model for promoting pesticide-free vegetable production in urban areas, aligned with Sustainable Development Goals 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production). The project funded by the Program Management Unit on Area Based Development (PMU A) for a one-year duration starting from May 2021 and ended in April 2022. This study investigates the Social Return on Investment (SROI) of the project. The analysis aims to elucidates the project’s multifaceted outcomes and offer valuable insights for policymakers to encourage investments in safe vegetable production within urban domains. The SROI evaluation demonstrated the project’s success in achieving economic, social, and environmental objectives, particularly in establishing a sustainable source of safe food through a community of pesticide-free vegetable producers in urban areas. This initiative fostered community interaction, economic development, and improved health through pesticide-free vegetable consumption, showcasing a potential model for green urban communities. Despite challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the project yielded significant benefits over ten years period, with a net present value of $66, 831 and an SROI of 2.99, indicating that every $1 invested generated a social return of $2.99 – a favorable rate for agricultural projects. The project’s success underscores the importance of continued support from the Faculty of Agriculture, Chiang Mai University, or relevant research funding agencies to sustain such impactful endeavors. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Crop Production/Industries, Production Economics, Sustainability |
| Date: | 2024–04–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:asea24:344451 |
| By: | Liu, Xiaolu; Zhang, Yumei; Lan, Xiangmin; Si, Wei |
| Abstract: | This study employs national Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the impacts of reducing domestic agricultural trade costs on agricultural production, household income, food prices, macroeconomic conditions, as well as food consumption and dietary quality of urban and rural residents. We find that in comparison to trade costs associated with agricultural imports and exports, the reduction of domestic agricultural trade costs is more conducive to expanding food production and cultivation areas, reducing food prices, and improving the dietary conditions of both urban and rural residents in China. Moreover, it stimulates the growth of agricultural, agro-processing, and agrifood system GDP. In terms of specific foods, the reduction in domestic agricultural product trade costs will lower the prices of various food items, decrease the consumption of rice and wheat, and increase the consumption of other types of food. This study provides theoretical and empirical foundations for achieving the dual objectives of revitalizing the national unified market and promoting the transformation of the agrifood system to enhance nutritional welfare within the framework of the new development paradigm, thereby Copyright 2024 by Xiaolu Liu, Yumei Zhang, Xiangmin Lan, and Wei Si. All rights reserved. Readers may make verbatim copies of this document for non-commercial purposes by any means, provided that this copyright notice appears on all such copies. offering valuable insights for informing governmental trade policy decisions. In the future, efforts should focus on intensifying the construction of infrastructure for perishable fresh agricultural products, reducing transportation distances, lowering transport costs, and establishing a "unified national market" in the agricultural sector to enhance the sustainability and resilience of China's agrifood system. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cfcp15:344315 |
| By: | Philipp Ager (University of Mannheim, CEPR); Viktor Malein (Lund University) |
| Abstract: | The paper evaluates the long-run impact of charity nurseries for disadvantaged children in early 20th-century New York. Access to charity nurseries with kindergarten instruction raised children’s years of education and reduced their likelihood of working in low-skilled jobs later in life. Instead, exposed children were more likely to work in jobs requiring higher cognitive and language skills. The effects were strongest for children from the most disadvantaged immigrant groups at that time. Our findings suggest that kindergarten instruction in charity nurseries helped immigrant children better understand teachers’ instructions and learning materials which improved their economic outcomes in adulthood. |
| Keywords: | Age of Mass Migration, Charity Nurseries, Child Care, Disadvantaged Children, Kindergarten Instruction, New York City |
| JEL: | I21 I26 J13 J15 N31 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0263 |
| By: | Severin Borenstein; Lucas W. Davis |
| Abstract: | Over the last two decades, U.S. households have received $47 billion in tax credits for buying heat pumps, solar panels, electric vehicles, and other “clean energy” technologies. Using information from tax returns, we show that these tax credits have gone predominantly to higher-income households. The bottom three income quintiles have received about 10% of all credits, while the top quintile has received about 60%. The most extreme is the tax credit for electric vehicles, for which the top quintile has received more than 80% of all credits. The concentration of tax credits among high-income filers is relatively constant over time, though we do find a slight broadening for the electric vehicle credit since 2018. The paper then turns to the related question of cost effectiveness, examining how clean energy technology adoption has changed over time and discussing some of the broader economic considerations for this type of tax credit. |
| JEL: | H23 Q42 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32688 |
| By: | Davide Malacrino; Samuel Nocito; Raffaele Saggio |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of a reform aimed at expediting graduation times in Italian universities by reducing the number of exams students must pass to obtain a fixed number of credits. Using event-study estimates that leverage the reform's staggered implementation, we find that this policy change led to an increase in on-time graduation rates. However, it also resulted in a decreased probability of employment one-year post-graduation. This negative effect vanishes in the medium run, suggesting that the reform's compliers—students who managed to graduate on time under the new regime but would have been delayed in the pre-reform regime—might have engaged in less intensive job search efforts immediately after graduation. |
| JEL: | I24 I26 I29 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32659 |
| By: | Florian Léon (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International); Sitraka Rabary (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International) |
| Abstract: | Face aux défis climatiques et sociaux, le secteur financier ne peut plus se limiter à une approche uniquement centrée sur la rentabilité. Deux mouvements convergents se produisent. D'une part, de plus en plus d'acteurs appellent à une prise en compte des impacts extra-financiers des investissements dans leur stratégie. La réglementation internationale, par exemple avec ISSB et la CSRD, fait peser une pression croissante sur les entreprises en ce sens. D'autre part, les financeurs du développement (États, fondations, institutions financières internationales) sont à la recherche de modalités innovantes permettant d'accélérer la croissance des pays pauvres, et de contribuer aux biens publics globaux, au travers du secteur privé. |
| Keywords: | Investissement d'impact, Entreprises, Afrique, Entreprises africaines |
| Date: | 2024–07–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04652199 |
| By: | Shi, Xiangyu; Liu, Yu |
| Abstract: | This paper establishes a novel argument that social networks among local politicians reduce spatial frictions of corporate investment. We leverage the replacement of city officials and the resulting exogenous variations of hometown ties among city party secretaries to examine their impact on intercity capital flows in China. The results provide strong evidence that such connections significantly enhance capital flows between cities. These social bonds appear to effectively lower entry barriers for businesses and offer sustained support to connected firms without negatively impacting unconnected ones. Our research indicates that the increase in hometown-related investments does not displace non-hometown-related investments. |
| Keywords: | hometown ties, capital flow, transaction costs, rent seeking, economic growth |
| JEL: | D2 D7 G1 O1 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121412 |
| By: | Audi, Marc |
| Abstract: | There is ongoing debate in empirical research regarding the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports and economic growth. While some studies argue that exchange rate volatility positively influences these economic variables, others suggest negative or negligible effects. This study seeks to clarify this debate by examining the specific impact of exchange rate volatility on the economic growth of Lebanon, utilizing annual time series data spanning from 1980 to 2023. In our investigation, we employed several econometric techniques to analyze the relationship between exchange rate volatility and economic growth. Notably, we utilized the autoregressive distributed lag model to explore both the short-term and long-term dynamics between these variables. Our results reveal a nuanced relationship: in the long run, exchange rate volatility exhibits a positive and significant effect on economic growth, while in the short run, this relationship is negative and insignificant. Further analysis identified that variables such as exchange rate volatility, investment volatility, agricultural value-added, and services value-added significantly impact economic growth in the long run. In contrast, inflation and exchange rates were found to have an insignificant effect on long-term economic growth. Specifically, inflation displayed a negative and insignificant relationship with economic growth, suggesting that while inflation can hamper growth, its impact is not statistically significant in this context. Given the inherent challenges in eliminating exchange rate volatility, our study recommends that the government of Lebanon adopt efficient macroeconomic policies aimed at mitigating the adverse effects of currency volatility. These policies should focus on enhancing economic stability and fostering a conducive environment for sustainable growth. Our findings contribute to the broader discourse on exchange rate volatility and its economic implications, offering specific insights relevant to Lebanon and potentially applicable to other economies with similar characteristics. Policymakers can leverage these insights to design strategies that balance the benefits of exchange rate flexibility with the need to protect the economy from excessive volatility. The evidence provided enhances our understanding of the long-term and short-term effects of exchange rate fluctuations, offering a foundation for informed policy-making that promotes economic resilience and growth. |
| Keywords: | Exchange Rate Volatility, Economic Growth, Lebanon |
| JEL: | F31 O16 O53 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121634 |
| By: | Michel Beine; Michel Bierlaire; Evangelos Paschalidis; Silvia Varotto; Andreas B. Vortisch |
| Abstract: | We address the question of the impact of a possible Trump reelection on the location choices of potential Mexican migrants. We use migration aspiration data from the Gallup World Poll Surveys which provide the preferred location choices of Mexican respondents before, during and after the Trump Presidency. We show that Trump presidency led to an increase in disapproval rates about the US leadership among Mexican respondents, which in turn led to a reduced level of attractiveness of the US location. Using a Cross-Nested Logit model that allows to account for the heterogeneity in the substitution patterns between alternative locations to the US, we simulate the impact of a possible reelection of Donald Trump based on different scenarios about these dis-approval rates. We find that such a reelection would lead to an increase in the number of stayers in Mexico but would also create heterogeneous immigration pressures from Mexico across potential foreign locations. In particular, countries such as Canada, the UK, Germany, Spain, and France would face significantly higher increases in Mexican immigration pressures. We also show that the reelection of Donald Trump would lower the skill content of Mexican potential immigrants in the US and would induce an opposite effect in destinations that are perceived as close substitutes. |
| Keywords: | location choice models, migration aspirations, Mexican immigrants, substitution effects |
| JEL: | C25 F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11195 |
| By: | Marcello Monga |
| Abstract: | Automated market makers (AMMs) are a new type of trading venues which are revolutionising the way market participants interact. At present, the majority of AMMs are constant function market makers (CFMMs) where a deterministic trading function determines how markets are cleared. Within CFMMs, we focus on constant product market makers (CPMMs) which implements the concentrated liquidity (CL) feature. In this thesis we formalise and study the trading mechanism of CPMMs with CL, and we develop liquidity provision and liquidity taking strategies. Our models are motivated and tested with market data. We derive optimal strategies for liquidity takers (LTs) who trade orders of large size and execute statistical arbitrages. First, we consider an LT who trades in a CPMM with CL and uses the dynamics of prices in competing venues as market signals. We use Uniswap v3 data to study price, liquidity, and trading cost dynamics, and to motivate the model. Next, we consider an LT who trades a basket of crypto-currencies whose constituents co-move. We use market data to study lead-lag effects, spillover effects, and causality between trading venues. We derive optimal strategies for strategic liquidity providers (LPs) who provide liquidity in CPMM with CL. First, we use stochastic control tools to derive a self-financing and closed-form optimal liquidity provision strategy where the width of the LP's liquidity range is determined by the profitability of the pool, the dynamics of the LP's position, and concentration risk. Next, we use a model-free approach to solve the problem of an LP who provides liquidity in multiple CPMMs with CL. We do not specify a model for the stochastic processes observed by LPs, and use a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network to approximate the optimal liquidity provision strategy. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.16885 |
| By: | Ahnert, Toni; Timmer, Yannick; Doerr, Sebastian; Pierri, Nicola |
| Abstract: | We study the importance of information technology (IT) in banking for entrepreneurship. Guided by a parsimonious model, we establish that job creation by young rms is stronger in US counties more exposed to banks with greater IT adoption. We present evidence consistent with banks' IT adoption spurring entrepreneurship through a collateral channel: entrepreneurship increases by more in IT-exposed counties when house prices rise. Further analysis suggests that IT improves banks' ability to determine collateral values, in particular when collateral appraisal is more complex. IT also reduces the time and cost of disbursing collateralized loans. JEL Classification: D82, G21, L26 |
| Keywords: | collateral, entrepreneurship, information technology, screening, technology in banking |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242956 |
| By: | Lwin, C.M.; Napasintuwong, O.; Praneetvatakul, S. |
| Abstract: | Myanmar is still facing challenges related to nutrition, including prevalent health issues like anemia, stunting, and wasting. Anemia, specifically, is acknowledged as a public health concern in the country. Simultaneously, the incidence of non-communicable diseases such as obesity, hypertension, and diabetes is on the rise, contributing to increased morbidity and mortality. Myanmar exhibits a high per capita consumption of rice, making healthy rice a culturally adaptable solution to address its nutrition-related health challenges. Therefore, this study seeks to investigate the factors influencing the choice of healthy rice among Myanmar rice consumers. Data for this study were collected from 481 rice consumers in Nay Pyi Taw, the capital of Myanmar, between September and October 2023. Descriptive statistics, t-test, chi-square test, and binomial logit model were employed to achieve the study objectives. Only 18% of rice consumers reported choosing healthy rice. Several factors drive rice consumers to choose healthy rice, including the education level of the respondent, the presence of children or elderly household members, household monthly income, knowledge score, and habitual health-related behaviour score. While knowledge significantly influences consumption, its impact is mediated by factors such as income. Therefore, targeted knowledge-sharing programs should prioritize medium-income group consumers with vulnerable households for optimal effectiveness. The habitual health-related behaviour score showed a highly significant association with healthy rice consumption, emphasizing the need to promote good health habits, such as exercise routines, by providing facilities and creating environments conducive to physical activities, given the currently limited access in Myanmar. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2024–04–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:asea24:344447 |
| By: | Abdelmoumen El Abdali (UMI - جامعة مولاي إسماعيل = Université Moulay Ismaïl) |
| Abstract: | The provision of quality, continuous, sustainable, and satisfactory local public services (LPS) is one of the greatest challenges for local authorities, as it depends, among other factors, on the quantity and quality of tax revenues mobilized for this purpose, which also depend on the level of taxpayers' compliance with their tax obligations. This research aims to test the effect of satisfaction with public services provided by the local authority on taxpayers' compliance with tax obligations. The data collection technique used in this research is documentation and questionnaire survey. The study sample consists of 200 taxpayers (individuals) subject to at least one local tax. The analysis method used is simple linear regression with SPSS. The results of this research show that the satisfaction of local taxpayers with municipal services provided by the local authority has a positive and significant impact on their tax compliance. |
| Abstract: | Résumé La prestation des services publics locaux (SPL) de qualité, continus, durables et satisfaisants, est l'un des plus grands défis des communes, car, cela dépend, entre autres, de la quantité et de la qualité des recettes fiscales mobilisées à cet égard, lesquelles dépendent aussi du niveau de conformité des contribuables vis-à-vis de leurs obligations fiscales. La présente recherche vise à tester l'effet de la satisfaction envers les services publics prestés par la collectivité territoriale sur le respect des obligations fiscales des contribuables. La technique de collecte des données utilisée dans cette recherche est la documentation et l'enquête par questionnaire. L'échantillon de l'étude est constitué de 200 contribuables (personnes physiques) soumis au moins à un impôt local. La méthode d'analyse utilisée est la régression linéaire simple avec SPSS. Les résultats de cette recherche montrent que la satisfaction des contribuables locaux vis-à-vis des services communaux offerts par la collectivité territoriale a un impact positif et significatif sur leur conformité fiscale. Mots clés : services publics, satisfaction, conformité fiscale, collectivité territoriale. Classification JEL : C12, C21, D91, H26 Type de l'article : Recherche appliquée Abstract The provision of quality, continuous, sustainable, and satisfactory local public services (LPS) is one of the greatest challenges for local authorities, as it depends, among other factors, on the quantity and quality of tax revenues mobilized for this purpose, which also depend on the level of taxpayers' compliance with their tax obligations. This research aims to test the effect of satisfaction with public services provided by the local authority on taxpayers' compliance with tax obligations. The data collection technique used in this research is documentation and questionnaire survey. The study sample consists of 200 taxpayers (individuals) subject to at least one local tax. The analysis method used is simple linear regression with SPSS. The results of this research show that the satisfaction of local taxpayers with municipal services provided by the local authority has a positive and significant impact on their tax compliance. Keywords: public services, satisfaction, tax compliance, local authorities JEL Classification : C12, C21, D91, H26 Paper type: Empirical research |
| Keywords: | public services, satisfaction, tax compliance, local authorities |
| Date: | 2024–05–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04639212 |
| By: | Geromichalos, Athanasios; Wang, Yijing |
| Abstract: | In monetary theory, money is typically introduced as an object that can help agents bypass frictions, such as anonymity and limited commitment. Consequently, common wisdom suggests that if agents had access to more unsecured credit these frictions would become less severe and welfare would improve. In similar spirit, common wisdom suggests that as societies get access to more alternative (to money) payment instruments, i.e., more ways to bypass the aforementioned frictions, welfare would also increase. We show that for a large variety of settings and market structures this common wisdom is not accurate. If the alternative means of payment is sufficient to cover all the liquidity needs of the economy, then indeed the economy will reach maximum welfare. However, if access to this alternative payment system is relatively low to begin with, increasing it can hurt the economy’s welfare, and we characterize in detail the set of parameters for which this result can arise. Our model offers a simple explanation to a recent empirical literature suggesting that increased access to credit is often followed by declined economic activity. |
| Keywords: | monetary-search models, over-the-counter markets, credit, liquidity, welfare |
| JEL: | E31 E43 E52 G12 |
| Date: | 2024–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121388 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This Medium-Term National Development Policy Framework (MTNDPF) 2022-2025 seeks to operationalize Article 36, Clause 1 of Ghana’s 1992 constitution, which enjoins Government to ensure that the national economy is managed efficiently to maximize the welfare of the citizenry. It was prepared with broad-based stakeholder participation including the use of cross-sectoral planning groups (CSPGs) as enjoined by article 15 of the National Development Planning Commission Act, 1994 (Act 479). Public consultations were also undertaken across the country, including engagement with parliament and the presidency. It was finally approved by the Commission following approval from the presidency and presented to Parliament. |
| Date: | 2024–07–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/214 |
| By: | Esser, Hartmut (University of Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | The question of the effects of ability tracking remains unresolved even after decades of research. This is also due to the fact that specific regulations for the stringency of implementing differentiation according to ability and achievement have not been taken into account. The issue is the conditionalization of the effects of ability tracking within differentiating systems. The question is analysed using the example of the German federal states: There are clear differences in the regulation of differentiation (binding nature of recommendations and/or stronger organizational control of schools) and with the "National Educational Panel Study" (NEPS) a data set is available that contains all the information necessary to identify the effects. Three sequentially related aspects of the effects of stringency are analyzed: Sorting and educational attainment, structuring of school classes and educational achievement in secondary school. For educational attainment, there was an increase in achievement at the end of elementary school and greater equality of achievement at the transition without an increase in social inequality. The structuring of school classes showed a decoupling of cognitive and social segregation. And for achievement in secondary school, was an increase in the effects of cognitive composition without an increase in the effects of social background or social segregation, especially in the lower performance areas. This is practically the opposite of the assumptions known from most international comparative studies, according to which strict differentiation does not improve achievement, but only reinforces the effects of social background. |
| Keywords: | ability tracking, educational achievement, educational inequality, school effects, German Federal States |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17167 |
| By: | Ray C. Fair (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | This paper makes three main contributions. First, inflation expectation equations are estimated using quarterly time series data. Second, a price equation in level form is estimated that is consistent with the data, unlike Phillips-curve equations. Third, the case is considered in which an expectation variable in an inflation or price equation is not causal. The results suggest that household inflation expectations are mostly affected by current and past inflation. The Fed through interest rates has a modest effect. In the estimated price equation a measure of the expected future price level is significant, although it may not be causal. Whether it is or not, the results show that the Fed’s ability to affect inflation is modest since its effect on expectations is modest. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2401 |
| By: | FARINHA RODRIGUES Carlos; ANDRADE VICENTE Joana; LEITE NEVES David; MOREIRA Amílcar |
| Abstract: | The EUROMOD Country Reports have the double function of describing the scope of the EUROMOD simulations, including the underlying assumptions, and providing the validation of these simulations against official statistics. The Country Report for Portugal is prepared by the PT EUROMOD National Team each year, and made available by the JRC on time for the EUROMOD public release of the model at the beginning of each year. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc138005 |
| By: | KALÍŠKOVÁ Klára; MUNICH Daniel; PAVEL Jan |
| Abstract: | The EUROMOD Country Reports have the double function of describing the scope of the EUROMOD simulations, including the underlying assumptions, and providing the validation of these simulations against official statistics. The Country Report for Czechia is prepared by the CZ EUROMOD National Team each year, and made available by the JRC on time for the EUROMOD public release of the model at the beginning of each year. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc138023 |
| By: | Wei Jiang; Thomas J. Sargent; Neng Wang |
| Abstract: | Lucas and Stokey (1983) motivated future governments to confirm an optimal tax plan by rescheduling government debt appropriately. Debortoli et al. (2021) showed that sometimes that does not work. We show how a Ramsey plan can always be implemented by adding instantaneous debt to Lucas and Stokey’s contractible subspace and requiring that each continuation government preserve that debt’s purchasing power instantaneously. We formulate the Ramsey problem with a Bellman equation and use it to study settings with various initial term debt structures and government spending processes. We extract implications about tax smoothing and effects of fiscal policies on bond markets. |
| JEL: | E6 H2 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32658 |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) accounts for a third of the countries on the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list. In the Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing (ML/TF) Ranking and Risk Assessment Tool, the region performed poorly in terms of resilience to ML/TF, with more than 60% of countries falling into the high-risk category. Although countries on the grey list are not subject to sanctions, inclusion on the list has a significant impact on their economies. This includes a significant reduction in capital inflows and foreign direct investment. The four main sources of illicit financial flows from SSA, South Africa, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia and Nigeria, accounted for more than 50% of total illicit financial flows. While SSA received nearly $2 trillion in foreign direct investment (FDI) and official development assistance (ODA) between 1980 and 2018, it issued over $1 trillion in illicit financial flows. These illicitly acquired funds and diverted from the region continue to pose a development challenge. Illicit financial flows increased overall, but not concerning trade. In the 38 years from 1980 to 2018, they increased significantly in the 2000s, in parallel with the growth of African trade. Emerging and developing countries in Asia and the Middle East have become key targets. Previous initiatives to curb money laundering and improve the exchange of tax information between countries have largely failed, including the three most important: the Financial Action Task Force (founded in 1998), the Global Forum on Transparency and Exchange of Information for Tax Purposes (founded in 2009 ) and the Inclusive Framework on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (founded in 2016). First, African countries lack the resources and capacity to address illicit financial flows. Second, many advanced economies are not sufficiently engaged in these initiatives. However, the repatriation of illegal funds is an important tool for strengthening the resource base of African countries. In 2020, for example, the United States and the self-governing British Crown Dependency of Jersey, one of the world's most notorious tax and money laundering havens, reached an agreement with Nigeria to repatriate more than $300 million stolen by Nigeria's former military dictator General Sani Abacha. |
| Keywords: | Money laundering; Money Laundering Control Act; Embezzlement; Corruption; tax evasion; Terrorism financing; Informal economy; Illegal drug trade; Human trafficking; Blood diamonds; Good governance; Sub-Saharan Africa; South Africa; Kenya; DR Congo; Ethiopia; Mozambique; Uganda; Rwanda, Nigeria; Ghana, Mali;, Cameroon; |
| JEL: | D23 D53 D63 D74 E21 E26 E42 F35 F38 F53 F54 G28 H26 K42 N27 N47 O17 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121354 |
| By: | Barissoul, Ayoub; Feuerbacher, Arndt; Tshotsho, Tshotsho; Wieck, Christine |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study is to determine maize and paddy yield difference under organic and conventional farming in Bhutan, and subsequently determine factors influencing this difference. Results from arithmetic mean comparison show that maize organic yield is on average 40.9% lower compared to conventional, and 36.9% lower for paddy. Simple linear regression is used to determine factors influencing the yield. Findings indicate that, in contrast to other studies, female-headed households are much more productive than male-headed households. Temperature plays a significant role in determining yield of both crops, so does the use of machinery. Surprisingly, education, labor, and precipitation showed no significant impact on the level of output. Alongside gender, proximity to markets and use of agrochemicals had a major influence on the yield of both crops. Analysis also showed that elevation and climate characteristics heavily influence the yield, this is depicted by yield comparisons across different agro-ecological zones. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2023–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi23:344239 |
| By: | Mendolia, Silvia (University of Torino); Stavrunova, Olena (University of Technology, Sydney); Vidal-Fernandez, Marian (University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | Birth order effects in developed countries are consistently negative. That is, the later a child is born within a family, the worse their adult economic outcomes relative to their earlier-born siblings are. However, studies of birth order effects in emerging countries are scarcer and yield conflicting birth order effect signs. We study whether this divergence in results is due to within-country data idiosyncrasies or methods heterogeneity. We use almost 1.8 million observations gathered from the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) to measure birth order effects on children's educational outcomes in 35 developing countries, between the mid-1980s and 2020. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study analysing birth order effects in a comprehensive set of developing countries. In developing countries, families tend to be relatively large and within-family resources scarce. The DHS contains harmonised data and variables for all countries, providing a picture of birth order effects that is consistent across the developing world. Using mothers' fixed effects models, we estimate the impact of birth order on standardised years of schooling and school attendance, exploring non-linearities in birth order effects, as well as heterogeneous effects by gender, socio-economic characteristics and over time. Overall, we find negative birth order effects on educational attainment in 32 out of 35 countries. Consistent with this, we find that the probability of not being in school increases with birth order. We find that in most countries, overall birth order effects do not vary by gender, family wealth, location or over time. In countries where we do find differences in birth order across these dimensions of heterogeneity, the negative birth order effects are stronger for children from poorer households, and households in rural areas. |
| Keywords: | birth order, education, low income countries |
| JEL: | I10 I20 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17131 |
| By: | URBAN Ivica; BEZEREDI Slavko |
| Abstract: | The EUROMOD Country Reports have the double function of describing the scope of the EUROMOD simulations, including the underlying assumptions, and providing the validation of these simulations against official statistics. The Country Report for Croatia is prepared by the HR EUROMOD National Team each year, and made available by the JRC on time for the EUROMOD public release of the model at the beginning of each year. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc138015 |
| By: | VELLA Stephanie; SAID Riana; MIFSUD Stephanie |
| Abstract: | The EUROMOD Country Reports have the double function of describing the scope of the EUROMOD simulations, including the underlying assumptions, and providing the validation of these simulations against official statistics. The Country Report for Malta is prepared by the MT EUROMOD National Team each year, and made available by the JRC on time for the EUROMOD public release of the model at the beginning of each year. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc138008 |
| By: | Filip Stan\v{e}k |
| Abstract: | This article describes the methods that achieved 4th and 6th place in the forecasting and investment challenges, respectively, of the M6 competition, ultimately securing the 1st place in the overall duathlon ranking. In the forecasting challenge, we tested a novel meta-learning model that utilizes hypernetworks to design a parametric model tailored to a specific family of forecasting tasks. This approach allowed us to leverage similarities observed across individual forecasting tasks while also acknowledging potential heterogeneity in their data generating processes. The model's training can be directly performed with backpropagation, eliminating the need for reliance on higher-order derivatives and is equivalent to a simultaneous search over the space of parametric functions and their optimal parameter values. The proposed model's capabilities extend beyond M6, demonstrating superiority over state-of-the-art meta-learning methods in the sinusoidal regression task and outperforming conventional parametric models on time-series from the M4 competition. In the investment challenge, we adjusted portfolio weights to induce greater or smaller correlation between our submission and that of other participants, depending on the current ranking, aiming to maximize the probability of achieving a good rank. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.20352 |
| By: | Quisumbing, Agnes R. |
| Abstract: | Measuring power is central to empirical work on intrahousehold and gender relations. Early efforts to test household models focused on measuring spousal bargaining power, usually in models featuring two decisionmakers within the household. Proxy measures for bargaining power included age, education, assets, and “outside options” that could affect spouses’ threat points within marriage. Evidence rejecting the collective model of the household has influenced the design of policies and programs, notably conditional cash transfer programs. Efforts have since shifted to measuring empowerment, drawing on theories of agency and power. Since 2010, several measures of women’s empowerment have been developed, including the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) and its variants. A distinct feature of the WEAI, like other counting-based measures, is its decomposability into its component indicators, which makes identifying sources of disempowerment possible. The WEAI indicators also embody jointness of decision-making or ownership, which better reflects actual decision-making within households compared to 2-person bargaining models. This paper reviews how progress in the measurement of power within households has facilitated our understanding of household decision-making and creates new opportunities for programs and policy. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2024–07–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cfcp15:344356 |
| By: | Hertel, Thomas W. |
| Abstract: | In a series of highly cited papers over the period 2009 – 2023, earth system scientists have identified a set of nine planetary boundaries that must not be breached if we wish to avoid catastrophic consequences for nature and humanity. These range from well-mixed, global boundaries, such as climate-altering greenhouse gas emissions, to localized limits on freshwater availability and reactive nitrogen entering the environment. Recent estimates by Richardson et al. (2023), suggest that four of the nine planetary boundaries have already been breached. The food system is a key driver of all four exceedances and therefore must play a key role in any solutions. However, the establishment of these boundaries and the analysis of potential solutions has often been devoid of economic considerations. Furthermore, in the case of several of these planetary boundaries, limited attention has been given to the economic policies that might allow society to address them, as well as the likely synergies and tradeoffs across economic policies targeted to individual objectives. This paper seeks to bring further economic analysis to bear on the quantitative assessment of global and local economic policies aimed at respecting these planetary boundaries, concluding with six lessons to inform future research on this topic. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Sustainability |
| Date: | 2024–07–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cfcp15:344346 |
| By: | Wüpper, David; Oluoch, Wyclife Agumba; Hadi |
| Abstract: | Agricultural and environmental economists are in the fortunate position that a lot of what is happening on the ground is observable from space. Most agricultural production happens in the open and one can see from space when and where innovations are adopted, crop yields change, or forests are converted to pastures, to name just a few examples. However, converting images into measurements of a particular variable is not trivial, as there are more pitfalls and nuances than “meet the eye”. Overall, however, research benefits tremendously from advances in available satellite data as well as complementary tools, such as cloud-based platforms for data processing, and machine learning algorithms to detect phenomena and mapping variables. The focus of this keynote is to provide agricultural and environmental economists with an accessible introduction to working with satellite data, show-case applications, discuss advantages and weaknesses of satellite data, and emphasize best practices. This is supported by extensive Supplementary Materials, explaining the technical foundations, describing in detail how to create different variables, sketch out work flows, and a discussion of required resources and skills. Last but not least, example data and reproducible codes are available online. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2024–07–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cfcp15:344359 |
| By: | TOIM Kelly; LAURIMÄE Merilen; VORK Andres |
| Abstract: | The EUROMOD Country Reports have the double function of describing the scope of the EUROMOD simulations, including the underlying assumptions, and providing the validation of these simulations against official statistics. The Country Report for Estonia is prepared by the EE EUROMOD National Team each year, and made available by the JRC on time for the EUROMOD public release of the model at the beginning of each year. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc138020 |
| By: | Pauline Folcher (MRM - Montpellier Research in Management - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1 - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - UM2 - Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School) |
| Abstract: | Since its development after the 2008 crisis, the concept of Smart City has constantly raised economic, sociological and ethical questions. The promises of this all-digital city no longer make people dream and even push some to resist and oppose, sometimes successfully, these urban projects. But how to explain these negative or even dystopian representations and beliefs to urban projects that have not yet "come out of the ground"? By supporting the idea that the images and stories delivered simultaneously and widely in society can be at the origin of the construction of social representations and beliefs, this communication seeks to identify what are the images of life in a digital future which are conveyed by cultural productions and in particular cinematographic productions (Touzani and Hirschman, 2019). For this, a chronological and thematic analysis of 40 years of science fiction films highlighting a digital future is carried out and the main "images" of the connected city (smart city), of its users (smart people) and of technology are identified and discussed. |
| Keywords: | Smart city, Smart people, Narrative Transport, representations, collective imagination, Transport narratif, représentations, imaginaire collectif Smart city Smart people Narrative Transport representations collective imagination « Chez |
| Date: | 2023–05–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04642957 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Côte d’Ivoire’s economy remains resilient against a still difficult global backdrop. The EFF/ECF-supported program approved in May 2023 (400 percent of quota), has helped to safeguard macroeconomic stability, as well as a moderate rating of debt distress, while growing challenges from climate change are being addressed under the recently approved RSF arrangement (150 percent of quota). The authorities’ ongoing commitment to reforms under both programs should support Côte d’Ivoire’s transformation towards upper middle-income status over the medium-term and enhance its resilience to climate change. Notwithstanding lower than expected cocoa production, the outlook remains favorable and has been boosted by still strong consumption and investment demand, as well as new activity in the oil exploration and production sector. Risks have become more balanced, reflected in increased interest from foreign investors along with ratings and outlook upgrades by ratings agencies. |
| Date: | 2024–07–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/223 |
| By: | Bernhard, Sarah (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Nützel, Ulf-Michael (IAB); Osiander, Christopher (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Ramos Lobato, Philipp (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Zins, Stefan (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "OnJoB is the first nationwide panel survey of job centre employees in joint and municipal job centres in Germany. OnJoB surveys both at the executive board of all job centres and at a random sample of job centres and job centre employees with a focus on counselling & placement and benefit provision. OnJoB surveys the experiences and assessments of job centre employees on the topic of citizens’ income. The first survey took place in spring 2024. 3, 100 employees from job centres across Germany took part in OnJoB. The respondents work in 360 job centres across Germany. Particular attention was paid to highly topical issues such as the assessment of the introduction of 100% benefit reductions in the Citizen’s Income and expectations regarding the transition of support for further vocational training to unemployment insurance. Further (planned) topics of the survey are: Attitudes towards the Citizen’s Income, holistic support (coaching), case management, waiting period, cooperation plan, conciliation, benefit reductions, administrative simplification, digitalisation, older people, further training, basic child protection, abolition of placement priority and networks. The next surveys will take place in the spring of 2025 and 2026." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation |
| Date: | 2024–08–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:202417 |
| By: | Yismaw, Habtamu; Troost, Christian; Berger, Thomas |
| Abstract: | This study simulates the economic effects of acacia diseases on smallholder farmers in the Upper Nile basin of the Ethiopian highlands, utilizing agent-based simulation analysis. Acacia, introduced in the 1990s, has become integral to the local agroforestry, enhancing soil fertility and providing significant economic benefits. However, recent outbreaks of acacia diseases threaten these gains. Our simulations suggest that income effects will be severe if the diseases make acacia production completely unprofitable. If interventions like fungicide applications and genetically robust seedlings are able to effectively counteract the diseases, acacia production will remain profitable even with the increased costs to apply these measures. However, they will most likely only partly compensate for the income losses, especially because of an expected delay until they can be introduced. The remaining income loss will still be substantial within the first 4-8 years after the disease outbreak. Our findings emphasize the necessity of timely and strategic management practices to support agricultural resilience. The study underscores the importance of innovative agricultural practices and targeted interventions to enhance the financial sustainability of smallholder farmers facing environmental challenges. Further research is needed to explore the role of acacia in soil fertility improvement, its impact on subsequent crop yields, potentially exacerbating interaction effects with interannual crop yield and price variability, and a detailed representation of livestock production activities. Additionally, the potential of off-farm work as an adaptation strategy warrants deeper investigation. |
| Keywords: | Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2024–07–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cfcp15:344393 |
| By: | Roychowdhury, Punarjit |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the prevalence of depression and clinical depression among the elderly in India across groups with distinct social identities, where social identities are defined by caste and religious affiliations. Using nationally representative data, the study reveals no- table disparities. Compared to upper caste-Hindus (UC-Hindus), disadvantaged groups like Scheduled Castes (SCs), Scheduled Tribes (STs), and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) expe- rience more depression. Further, SCs and OBCs are also more likely to be clinically depressed than UC-Hindus; however, there is no significant difference in clinical depression likelihood between UC-Hindus and STs. The gaps in depression and clinical depression across social groups diminish when I control for socioeconomic status and disappear with further adjust- ments for life conditions and experiences, including childhood circumstances, experiences of discrimination, neighborhood characteristics, housing conditions and perceived deprivation. Surprisingly, after accounting for these factors, STs demonstrate the lowest likelihood of clinical depression among all groups. While this could be interpreted as suggesting that STs inherently have better mental health than others, a more plausible explanation is that they under-report the symptoms used in clinical depression diagnosis. |
| Keywords: | Depression, India, Mental Health, Social Identity |
| JEL: | I14 I15 I31 J14 O12 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1466 |
| By: | King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | Many countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region have reinforced their interest in enhancing domestic value creation from renewable energy industries while striving to achieve their green energy transition targets. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has identified key segments in the wind and solar supply chain for localization in the short term, medium term, and long term as part of its ongoing efforts to diversify its energy portfolio and protect its economy from external shocks. |
| Keywords: | Belt and Road, Capital expenditure, Circular Carbon Economy, CO2 emissions |
| Date: | 2023–03–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:wbrief:ks--2022-wb13 |