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on Investment |
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Issue of 2024‒08‒19
37 papers chosen by |
| By: | Lee, Jaeyoon (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Tak, Eun-myeong (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Kim, Jeong-Hyun (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Climate-conscious trade norms are rapidly taking root worldwide, transforming the trade environment andfueling uncertainty in the steel industry. This new trade paradigm presents a significant challenge to the Koreansteel industry, the country’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs). With the European Union (EU)having finally adopted a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) after years of rumor and speculation, Korean steelmakers — and particularly those with businesses exporting carbon-intensive steel — mustbrace for the impact of the CBAM and other carbon regulations. While the introduction of the CBAM poses threatens steelmakers who rely heavily on exports to the EU(particularly of steel plates), the CBAM also creates new opportunities for market participants. In this paper, we analyze the potential impacts of the CBAM on Korean steel exports and imports. Assuming the currentexport basket and carbon intensity levels remain unchanged, initially the CBAM is likely to erode the marketshare of Korean steel in Europe. But it could also create space for Korean producers to capture demanddisplaced from competitors even less prepared for the new regulatory regime. This effect is likely to intensifyafter 2030 as the CBAM’s carbon reduction measures tighten. The evolving landscape in the Europeanmarket may also see increased competition from steel producers in China as well, with implications forKorea’s own domestic market. The path forward for the Korean steel industry lies in embracing green steelmaking. This necessitates swiftand decisive action from Korean decisionmakers, who ought to immediately begin implementing a roadmapfor achieving net zero in steelmaking, enhancing the competitiveness of Korean steel and navigating theincreasingly uncertain trade environment. Broad-based support from both the government and society isnecessary to ensure that Korean steelmakers are equipped to effectively compete with their internationalrivals backed aggressive state investments in green technologies. |
| Keywords: | Korea; EU; Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism; CBAM; steel; steel industry; steelmaking; green steel; hydrogen reduction; manufacturing; emissions; greenhouse gases; GHGs; KIET |
| JEL: | F13 F51 F53 L61 Q52 Q55 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–03–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:2024_004 |
| By: | Reher, Leonie; Runst, Petrik; Thomä, Jörg; Bizer, Kilian |
| Abstract: | In order to better capture non-R&D based processes related to Learning by Doing, Using and Interacting (DUI) as a basis for policy advice, this paper empirically identifies DUI mode drivers of SME innovation. For the first time, a large set of conceptually derived indicators is used in a self-conducted survey. Using lasso regression as a data-driven selection technique capable of handling such a large number of potential predictors, we find that DUI learning involves a wide range of elements beyond interaction with external actors. Moreover, our results suggest that the relevance of DUI learning for predicting SME innovation depends on both the region and the type of innovation output. SME innovation in lagging regions is strongly related to the DUI mode, which is particularly pronounced in the case of intra-firm learning processes. These results suggest that R&D capacity is not the only main driver of SME innovation, especially in lagging regions, and therefore provide an indication of how firms can compensate for unfavourable conditions in their regional innovation environment. This in turn implies going beyond innovation policy in the narrow sense to a more holistic approach that may include links with other policy areas. |
| Abstract: | Um die nicht auf formaler Forschung und Entwicklung (FuE) basierenden Prozesse im Zusammenhang mit dem handwerksnahen Innovationsmodus des "Learning by Doing, Using and Interacting (DUI)" als Grundlage für die Gestaltung innovationspolitischer Maßnahmen besser zu erfassen, werden in diesem Forschungspapier die DUI-Treiber von Innovationen in kleinen und mittleren Unternehmen (KMU) empirisch ermittelt. Erstmals wird ein umfangreiches Set konzeptionell hergeleiteter DUI-Indikatoren in einer eigenen Erhebung erhoben und ausgewertet. Unter Verwendung der Lasso-Regression als datengetriebene Selektionsmethode, die in der Lage ist, mit einer so großen Anzahl potenzieller Prädiktoren umzugehen, zeigt sich, dass DUI-Lernen in KMU eine breite Palette von Elementen umfasst, die über die Interaktion mit externen Akteuren hinausgehen. Darüber hinaus deuten unsere Ergebnisse darauf hin, dass die Relevanz des DUI-Lernens als Treiber von Innovationen in KMU sowohl von der Region als auch von der Art des Innovationsoutputs abhängt. So hängt die Innovationstätigkeit von KMU in strukturschwachen Regionen besonders stark mit dem DUI-Modus zusammen, was im Fall von unternehmensinternen Lernprozessen besonders ausgeprägt ist. Diese und andere Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass die FuE-Kapazität insbesondere in strukturschwachen Regionen nicht der einzige Treiber für Innovationen in KMU ist, und geben damit einen Hinweis darauf, wie Unternehmen ungünstige Bedingungen in ihrem regionalen Innovationsumfeld zumindest teilweise kompensieren können. Dies wiederum setzt voraus, dass man über die Innovationspolitik im engeren Sinne hinausgeht und einen ganzheitlicheren Ansatz verfolgt, der auch Verbindungen zu anderen Politikbereichen wie Arbeitsmarkt oder Bildung beinhaltet. |
| Keywords: | innovation measurement, innovation indicator, modes of innovation, SME innovation, regional innovation, lagging regions, lasso regression, variable selection, group lasso, ordinal predictors |
| JEL: | C50 C81 O3 O31 R11 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifhwps:300235 |
| By: | Kassa, M.; Lemma, M.; Haile, Alemseged Tamiru; Mekuria, Wolde; Gezahagn, A.; Asnakew, M.; Haileslassie, Amare |
| Abstract: | Water resources policy in Ethiopia emphasizes the significance of integrated water resources management (IWRM) in river basins. The Ministry of Water and Energy (MoWE) with its different directorates is vested with the responsibility of coordinating water resource management across basins. As part of executing this mandate, MoWE initiated the preparation of guidelines for establishment and management of multi-stakeholder platforms (MSPs) to coordinate IWRM in various basins. The guidelines presented in this publication focus on coordinating and managing water resources in the Central Rift Valley Lakes Basin within the Ethiopian Rift Valley Lakes Basin. This basin faces numerous water-related challenges such as increasing water demand, pollution, ecosystem degradation, climate change impacts, and conflicting water-use practices. These guidelines are aimed at defining a framework outlining the purpose, scope, and scale of MSPs as well as the key roles to be played by the governance bodies involved. While facilitating collaboration and partnership among the stakeholders involved in basin water resources management, these guidelines explicitly emphasize inclusion of women and marginalized groups. They highlight the essential elements required for effective management and governance of MSPs and underline the need for facilitation, trust-building, planning, goal-setting, effective communication, and a commitment to participatory decision-making. Ultimately, MoWE bears the responsibility of making the final decisions. Collaborative dialogue and inclusive decision-making processes are vital for sustainable water management. Integrated planning, data collection, monitoring, and evaluation are important for taking well-informed decisions. Therefore, our guidelines recommend capacity-building initiatives and knowledge-exchange platforms to enhance the effectiveness of MSPs. Additionally, strategies and mechanisms for securing the financial resources needed to implement IWRM plans and activities are emphasized. As effective communication plays a vital role in MSP processes, there is a need to define objectives, identify stakeholders, select communication channels, establish communication protocols, build relationships and trust, and develop outreach materials. Gender issues in water resources management, particularly access to water and control and ownership, are highlighted in these guidelines. Capacity-building activities are recommended to enhance the knowledge and skills of the stakeholders involved in the MSPs. Lastly, the guidelines stress the importance of monitoring and evaluating the MSPs involved in basin management. Such evaluations involve measuring stakeholder engagement, policy alignment, knowledge sharing, and collaboration and partnerships. These guidelines can be used by basin and sub-basin coordination experts and officials to establish and manage MSPs in the Central Rift Valley as well as beyond. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, International Relations/Trade, Public Economics, Sustainability |
| Date: | 2024–03–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iwmirp:344124 |
| By: | Dekkera, Thekla; Jantos, Louisa |
| Abstract: | Sustainability transformation needs regional engagement of the entirety of actors within. One central actor is the university with its mission and activities to transfer knowledge. This paper provides a first approach to identifying best practice regions for sustainability transformation within Europe and addresses potential literature gaps. By composite indexing of systemic sustainability indices and knowledge transfer metrics on a regional level as well as a subsequent systematic literature review, this work aims at (1) providing best practice regions for sustainability transformation and actor collaboration as well as (2) future research avenues. The study selects Copenhagen, Zurich, Stockholm, and Helsinki as regions of interest. It advocates exploring the dynamics within entire regions, emphasizing the interplay of actors in Regional Innovation Systems (RIS). |
| Abstract: | Die Transformation in Richtung Nachhaltigkeit erfordert ein regionales Engagement der Gesamtheit der Akteure. Ein zentraler Akteur ist die Universität mit ihrem Auftrag und ihren Aktivitäten des Wissenstransfers. Diese Studie bietet einen ersten Ansatz zur Identifizierung von Best-Practice-Regionen für die Nachhaltigkeitstransformation in Europa und geht auf mögliche Literaturlücken ein. Durch eine zusammengesetzte Indexierung von systemischen Nachhaltigkeitsindizes und Wissenstransfer-Metriken auf regionaler Ebene sowie eine anschließende systematische Literaturrecherche zielt diese Arbeit darauf ab, (1) Best-Practice-Regionen für die Nachhaltigkeitstransformation und die Zusammenarbeit von Akteuren zu identifizieren sowie (2) zukünftige Forschungsansätze zu identifizieren. Die Studie wählt Kopenhagen, Zürich, Stockholm und Helsinki als Regionen von Interesse aus. Sie plädiert dafür, die ganzheitliche Dynamik innerhalb der Regionen zu untersuchen und dabei das Zusammenspiel der Akteure in regionalen Innovationssystemen (RIS) zu betonen. |
| Keywords: | Regional Innovation System, Knowledge Transfer, best practice, Europe, University |
| JEL: | I23 O31 O35 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifhwps:300696 |
| By: | Baertsch, Laurenz (OECD); Sandner, Malte (Technische Hochschule Nürnberg) |
| Abstract: | Worldwide governments discuss how to increase maternal labor market participation and to reduce the child penalty, i.e. labor market earnings losses after child birth. This study analyses the long run effects of a German paid parental leave reform, which aims to increase maternal labour market participation and to reduce the child penalty by financially incentivizing maternal part-time work during the two years following child birth. Using German social security records, we exploit the fact that only mothers whose child is born in or after July 2015 are eligible for the new part-time PL option in a Difference-in-Differences strategy. We find that the policy increased the probability that high income mothers return to work during the first year after child birth by 2.1 - 2.8pp (≈ 15 - 20%). However, the policy does not impact maternal employment along the intensive margin (part-time or full-time work) in the long run, leaving maternal labor market participation and the child penalty unaffected. |
| Keywords: | paid parental leave, child penalty, part-time incentives, public child care |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J18 J22 J48 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17109 |
| By: | Sandrine Benoist (VALLOREM - Val de Loire Recherche en Management - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours) |
| Keywords: | Farmers, Strategies, Contestation, Rurality, Profesional practice, Anger, Collective, French farmers, Profesional identity, Agriculteurs, Agricultrices, Agriculture, Colère, Pratiques professionnelles, Ruralité, Stratégies, Ressources, Mobilisation, Collectif, Identités professionnelles |
| Date: | 2024–01–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04422349 |
| By: | Behn, Markus; Forletta, Marco; Reghezza, Alessio |
| Abstract: | Using granular data from the European corporate credit register, we examine how increases in macroprudential capital buffer requirements since the pandemic have affected bank lending behaviour in the euro area. Our findings reveal that, for the average bank, the buffer requirement increases did not have a statistically significant impact on lending to non-financial corporations. Furthermore, while we document relatively slower loan growth for banks with less capital headroom, also these banks did not decrease lending in absolute terms in response to higher requirements. These findings are robustin various specifications and emerge for both loan growth at the bank-firm level and the propensity to establish new bank-firm relationships. At the firm level, we document some heterogeneity depending on firm type and firm size. Firms with a single bank relationship and small and micro enterprises experienced a relative reduction in lending following buffer increases, although substitution effects mitigated real effects at the firm level. Overall, the results suggest that the pronounced macroprudential tightening since late 2021 did not exert substantial negative effects on credit supply.Hence, activating releasable capital buffers at an early stage of the cycle appears to be a robust policy strategy, since the costs of doing so are expected to be low. JEL Classification: E5, E51, G18, G21 |
| Keywords: | bank lending, capital buffers, credit supply, macroprudential policy |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242951 |
| By: | Röhl, Klaus-Heiner; Rusche, Christian |
| Abstract: | Mikrochips sind das Hardware-Rückgrat der Digitalisierung. In einer protektionistischer werdenden Welt ist eine eigene Produktion zudem ein Sicherheitsfaktor (Europäische Kommission, 2024). Die Europäische Union (EU), vor allem aber die USA und China liefern sich einen Wettlauf um die Herrschaft in diesem Zukunftsbereich. Dazu werden immer größere Fördersummen aufgelegt; der Subventionswettlauf ist also in vollem Gange. Doch reicht die Förderkulisse in der EU aus und ist mehr Geld überhaupt sinnvoll? |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:300559 |
| By: | Maxime Liégey (Université de Strasbourg) |
| Abstract: | How do middle-skilled workers trade off wages against commuting time, as compared with high- and low-skilled ones? In this presentation, we leverage a quasi-exhaustive panel of jobs in France to explore how unobserved heterogeneity can help characterize workers' trade-off at the metropolitan area level. We use estimated worker- and employer- |
| Date: | 2024–06–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:fsug24:32 |
| By: | Jeong, Minhyeon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | There are concerns that the economic sanctions imposed by the West on Russia will continue even after the end of the Russia-Ukraine war, which began in 2022 and has since prolonged. This is because the nature of the war encompasses a multifaceted structure that cannot be easily explained by the mere clash of interests between Russia and Ukraine, the primary parties involved. Therefore, it may be overly optimistic to expect that the Western sanctions against Russia will be fully lifted following the conclusion of the war. If there is a high likelihood that the Western economic sanctions against Russia will be prolonged, it is necessary to systematically analyze the long-term impact of these sanctions on the Russian economy. Even though Russia's economic growth rates in 2022 and 2023 were more favorable than anticipated by the West, it cannot be definitively stated that the long-term effects of the sanctions will be negligible. This is because the intrinsic nature of the sanctions against Russia is to "impose economic isolation, " suggesting that the prolonged duration of these sanctions is likely to have structurally adverse long-term effects on the Russian economy. Meanwhile, the Government of the Russian Federation is devising and establishing various domestic and international strategies in order to minimize the structural adverse impacts on the economy. By thoroughly re-viewing these domestic and international strategies, it is essential to systematically understand the direction of development within the Russian economy and the demand for international economic cooperation. This understanding will allow for the rapid restoration of economic cooperation between Korea and Russia, and the enhancement of cooperative synergy amid prolonged sanctions. Given this backdrop, this manuscript aims to summarize three key conclusions from the work of Jeong et al. (2023). First, we provide a theoretical and empirical analysis of the long-term impact of Western sanctions on the Russian economy. Second, we review the foreign and domestic policies of the Russian Federation in response to the prolonged sanctions following the war. Third, based on the findings of the first and second analyses, we explore measures to stabilize economic cooperation between Korea and Russia under the anticipated prolonged sanctions. |
| Keywords: | Russian Economy; sanctions; stabilization measures; Korea and Russia |
| Date: | 2024–06–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:2024_020 |
| By: | Christian Gourieroux; Quinlan Lee |
| Abstract: | We introduce a class of relative error decomposition measures that are well-suited for the analysis of shocks in nonlinear dynamic models. They include the Forecast Relative Error Decomposition (FRED), Forecast Error Kullback Decomposition (FEKD) and Forecast Error Laplace Decomposition (FELD). These measures are favourable over the traditional Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) because they account for nonlinear dependence in both a serial and cross-sectional sense. This is illustrated by applications to dynamic models for qualitative data, count data, stochastic volatility and cyberrisk. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2406.17708 |
| By: | Mario Cerrato; Hormoz Ramian; Shengfeng Mei |
| Abstract: | We show that European firms, at the peak of the COVID-19 shock in 2020:Q2, went into a “panic borrowing” status and drew down €87bn in a very short period. We show that firms that drew down credit lines had less stringent solvency and liquidity constraints. Our study exploits the implications of the social distancing policies to corporate operations across Europe. The novel aspect of our study is that we focus on shocks unrelated to firms’ fundamentals and investigate how firms manage their cash flow risk. It is an important novel aspect of this study as a large part of the literature has studied cash flow risk management follow ingendogenous shocks due to bad management decisions. In doing so, we use COVID-19 infection data and proxies for social distancing policies in Europe as a natural laboratory. Finally, we show that European firms during the pandemic crisis increased drawdowns, on average, by 3.35 percentage points in response to an unexpected one percentage point fall in their cash flows, butonly when firms’earnings are negative.This result is driven by the lockdown policies introduced in Europe. |
| Keywords: | Corporate credit lines, cashholding, investment, default risk |
| JEL: | G21 G32 G33 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gla:glaewp:2023_05 |
| By: | Fitzgerald, Jack |
| Abstract: | Researchers utilizing regression discontinuity design (RDD) commonly test for running variable (RV) manipulation around a cutoff, but incorrectly assert that insignificant manipulation test statistics are evidence of negligible manipulation. I introduce simple frequentist equivalence testing procedures that can provide statistically significant evidence that RV manipulation around a cutoff is practically equal to zero. I then demonstrate the necessity of these procedures, leveraging replication data from 36 RDD publications to conduct 45 equivalence-based RV manipulation tests. Over 44% of RV density discontinuities at the cutoff cannot be significantly bounded beneath a 50% upward jump. Bounding equivalence-based manipulation test failure rates beneath 5% requires arguing that a 350% upward density jump is practically equal to zero. Meta-analytic estimates reveal that average RV manipulation around the cutoff is equivalent to a 26% upward density jump. These results imply that many published RDD estimates may be confounded by discontinuities in potential outcomes due to RV manipulation that remains undetectable by existing tests. I provide research guidelines and commands in Stata and R to help researchers conduct more credible equivalencebased manipulation testing in future RDD research. |
| Keywords: | McCrary density test, rddensity, DCdensity, Hartman test |
| JEL: | C12 C18 C87 P00 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:136 |
| By: | Jackson, Emerson Abraham |
| Abstract: | This paper delves into the vital role of women in economic governance for achieving sustained and equitable growth in Africa. Historically, African women have played significant roles in economic activities and governance structures, particularly in pre-colonial societies, where they were integral to agricultural production, trade, and local governance. However, colonial and post-colonial periods saw a decline in their influence due to imported patriarchal norms. The chapter examines how modern initiatives, such as the African Union's Agenda 2063 and the African Continental Free Trade Area, have aimed to promote economic integration and resilience but still face challenges like corruption, inadequate infrastructure, and socio-political instability. It highlights the importance of gender-inclusive governance, supported by research indicating that including women in leadership leads to better financial performance and more sustainable policy outcomes. Case studies from Rwanda, where women hold 61% of parliamentary seats, and Nigeria, where women like Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala have made significant economic reforms, illustrate the positive impact of female leadership. The chapter also addresses barriers to women's participation, including cultural norms, patriarchal systems, and legal constraints, and suggests policy reforms to enhance gender equality in governance. Philosophical perspectives on equity and justice, particularly those of John Rawls and Martha Nussbaum, are used to argue for the inclusion of women in governance structures. Strategies for enhancing women's roles through education and capacity-building initiatives are discussed, emphasizing the need for comprehensive approaches to gender equality. The chapter concludes by asserting that empowering women in economic governance is not only a matter of fairness but is essential for achieving long-term economic stability and reducing disparities across Africa. |
| Keywords: | Women and Economic Governance, Inclusive and Sustainable Growth, African Continent |
| JEL: | J16 O15 P16 D63 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:300524 |
| By: | Xu, Lei |
| Keywords: | Demand And Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Agricultural And Food Policy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:343717 |
| By: | Luca TAUSCH; Guilherme MAGACHO |
| Abstract: | The low-carbon transition in developing countries requires large investments in new technologies. However, since capital goods production is concentrated mostly in more advanced economies, this transition will generate a high demand for imported Machinery and equipment in these countries, leading to a higher demand for foreign exchange and potentially creating negative macroeconomic pressures. To account for the important role of capital goods in this transition process, we endogenize fixed capital in the input-output (IO) framework, estimating capital use matrices for six developing and emerging countries in Latin America and the Caribbean within the Gloria sectoral framework from 1990 to 2020. Based on these estimates, we show how the endogenization of capital can offer a nuanced sectoral perspective on the multidimensional challenges faced by developing countries during their low-carbon transition, including the external and socio-economic dimensions. Our findings suggest that the inclusion of capital in the IO framework reveals a substantial deepening of the external constraint for developing countries. We find that for every dollar invested solely to maintain current productive capacity, on average more than 45% leaks directly and indirectly to foreign producers through imports. Some socio-economic benefits of green investment, such as employment generation, are absorbed by the rest of the world, rather than fostering domestic job creation. Essentially, with the growing demand for foreign-produced capital goods generated by the low-carbon transition, developing countries will face an increased external constraint and substantial socio-economic imbalances as they embark on their low-carbon trajectory. |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2024–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en16978 |
| By: | Masselus, Lise; Ankel-Peters, Jörg; Gonzalez Sutil, Gabriel; Modi, Vijay; Mugyenyi, Joel; Munyehirwe, Anicet; Williams, Nathan; Sievert, Maximiliane |
| Abstract: | Extending the power grid into hitherto unconnected areas is high on the policy agenda in Sub-Saharan Africa. Yet, connection rates and electricity consumption remain low in grid connected areas, at least in the short and medium run. This paper provides a long-term follow-up on an evaluation of a large-scale grid extension program in rural Rwanda. We study the adoption of grid electricity over time using a panel of 41 communities that were electrified up to ten years ago. We find that connection rates for households living near the grid increased from 62% in 2013 to 82% in 2022. At the wider community level, connection rates are much lower, at 51%. Furthermore, electricity consumption and appliance usage are low and did not grow over time. We corroborate these findings with administrative consumption data from the utility customer data base. Our findings suggest that investments into gridbased rural electrification cannot be justified by economic development impacts and cost-benefit considerations. |
| Abstract: | Die Ausweitung des Stromnetzes auf bisher nicht angeschlossene Gebiete steht ganz oben auf der politischen Agenda in Afrika südlich der Sahara. Dennoch sind die Anschlussraten und der Stromverbrauch in netzgebundenen Gebieten zumindest kurz- und mittelfristig niedrig. Dieses Papier bietet eine langfristige Nachbereitung einer Evaluierung eines groß angelegten Netzausbauprogramms im ländlichen Ruanda. Wir untersuchen die Akzeptanz von Netzstrom im Laufe der Zeit anhand eines Panels von 41 Gemeinden, die vor bis zu zehn Jahren elektrifiziert wurden. Wir stellen fest, dass die Anschlussquote für Haushalte, die in der Nähe des Netzes leben, von 62 % im Jahr 2013 auf 82 % im Jahr 2022 gestiegen ist. Auf der Ebene der gesamten Gemeinde liegen die Anschlussquoten mit 51 % deutlich niedriger. Darüber hinaus sind der Stromverbrauch und die Gerätenutzung gering und haben im Laufe der Zeit nicht zugenommen. Wir untermauern diese Ergebnisse mit administrativen Verbrauchsdaten aus der Kundendatenbank des Versorgungsunternehmens. Unsere Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass Investitionen in die netzgestützte ländliche Elektrifizierung nicht durch wirtschaftliche Entwicklungseffekte und Kosten-Nutzen-Erwägungen gerechtfertigt werden können. |
| Keywords: | Energy access, energy consumption, energy use, electricity, Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | H54 L94 O12 O13 O18 Q41 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:300563 |
| By: | António Afonso; José Alves; Sofia Monteiro |
| Abstract: | Recognizing the profound influence of geopolitical risks and world uncertainty on financial investment behaviour, this study uses a comprehensive approach to assess the impact of rising geopolitical risk on sovereign debt holdings for a panel of 24 OECD economies from Q1 2004 to Q4 2023. To do so, we employ Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) fixed effects and Quantile Regression techniques within a panel data framework to capture the nuanced effects on both domestic and foreign entities. We find that escalating geopolitical tension decreases government debt holdings among domestic entities, notably domestic Banks, while foreign investors increase their ownership. This phenomenon is more pronounced for high proportion levels of debt in investor’s portfolios. Our results allow us to conclude that while domestic economic agents display clearer risk aversion, foreign economic agents have a more risk-taking behaviour in what concerns the financial investment on government debt. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign Debt; Geopolitical Risk; World Uncertainty; OLS; Quantile Regression. |
| JEL: | C23 E44 G32 H63 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03332024 |
| By: | Welker, Carl B. |
| Abstract: | Distributed Ledger Technologies (DLT) and their most prominent version, the blockchain, enable a new type of organization: Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs). DAOs consist of software code, mainly smart contracts, and the DAO members. Members keep governance tokens that grant property rights, e.g. voting rights. DAOs are featured by anonymity of their members and zero hierarchy coordination. Subsequently, DAOs are predestined for shaping web3 communities, managing decentralized applications (dApps) and operating digital business of any kind in the future. In last instance, DAOs may be entirely autonomous due to fully automated smart contracts. Since DAOs operate on blockchains, they are far from day-to-day bureaucracy and formal legal requirements. Seen from a common business point of view, startups and entrepreneurs might criticize a lack of structure and decency of DAOs. Moreover, it has been reported that U.S. authorities sued and made DAO initiators and token owners personally liable for violating federal law. This discussion paper describes essential features of DAOs and discusses major characteristics of a business firm. Moreover, the author points at favourable U.S. locations for setting up a DAO with a LLC body, however still keeping core web3 features such as its decentralized mode of operation and anonymity for token owners. |
| Keywords: | Startups, Web3, Distributed Ledger Technologies, Blockchain, Tokenization, Decentralized Autonomous Organization, DAO, Wyoming, LAO |
| JEL: | K00 L20 L22 L26 M13 N40 O17 O32 O33 O35 O38 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iubhbm:300237 |
| By: | Chiara Castelli (Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche); Marta Castellini (Department of Economics and Management "Marco Fanno", University of Padua and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Camilla Gusperti (Department of Economics and Management, Università degli Studi di Brescia and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Veronica Lupi (Department of Environmental Economics, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Sergio Vergalli (Department of Economics and Management, Università degli Studi di Brescia and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei) |
| Abstract: | The goal of this work is to improve the spatial representation of the Regional Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE), in its ’99 version, focusing on the Mediterranean countries, while also updating the calibration to the base year 2015. We evaluate the impact of climate damages and temperature changes in several scenarios, drawing comparisons across regions. Thanks to the theoretical structure of the model, which considers energy as an explicit input factor, we examine macroeconomic and energy indicators across regions. We find that a general slow down in economic growth is needed to decrease emissions and keep temperature change within 2°C by the end of this century. Our results are embedded in a framework showing the costs of delaying the energy transition. Our figures relies on fossil-fuel inputs and exogenous energy saving improvements. |
| Keywords: | IAMs, climate change, social cost of carbon, emissions, temperature, energy, Mediterranean region, Mediterranean countries |
| JEL: | Q54 H23 R13 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2024.20 |
| By: | Bondonio, D.;; Chirico, P.;; Piacenza, M.;; Robbiano, S.; |
| Abstract: | In March 2023, the EU approved a zero-emission mobility resolution, which mandates zero CO2 emissions for all new vehicles by 2035. This measure has sparked a heated debate due to its uncertain effectiveness in reducing pollution and CO2 emissions globally. Nevertheless, the shift towards zero -emission vehicles has the potential to decrease local nitrogen dioxide (NO2) pollution, particularly in urban areas where air quality is a major concern for citizens’ health. This study investigates what may be the predicted impact of the EU zero-emission mobility policy on local NO2 levels, using the draconian stay-home provision of the Italian Covid-19 lockdown of early 2020 as a natural experiment which generated an exogenous fossil-fuel-traffic abatement that proxies the implementation of the resolution. We exploit datafrom the urban areas with elevated traffic density in the Po-river valley in Northern Italy, a region with the highest peaks of air-pollution in Europe, and we develop a novel intertemporal statistical matching approach which is uniquely suited for policy evaluations on air-quality outcomes in the context of multivariate time series data. The results from our causalinference analysis show that Covid -19 lockdown led to a mean NO2 reduction of 13.62 μg/m3 (around 53% from a baseline average level of 25.8 μg/m3). According to medical literature, this decline in NO2 translates into a reduction in the relative risk of total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality of about 9%, 8%, and 4%, respectively. Moreover, we find a marked heterogeneity in the estimated impact of lockdown on pollution and health, with greater decreases in NO2 and in the relative risk of mortality observed for higher baseline pollution levels. These findings suggest that the EU 2035 resolution is indeed expected to improve local air quality and citizens’ health in urban areas with high traffic density. The estimated benefits, however, are likely to vary across EU regions based on prevailing local meteorological conditions and urban texture features, which determine a different baseline pollution, supporting the rationale for a spatial differentiation of the EU zero-emission mobility policy. |
| Keywords: | air pollution;EU zero-emission mobility policy; urban areas; NO2 abatement; health effects; intertemporal statistical matching; impact heterogeneity; |
| JEL: | C10 H23 I18 Q53 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:24/07 |
| By: | Ashley Ward; Belen Zinni |
| Abstract: | Composition Adjusted-Labour Input (CALI) measures account for workers’ differences in skills and productive capacity. This study reviews the most relevant literature to have produced CALI estimates to date and presents a generic approach to produce CALI measures for 21 countries. It finds that education and age (proxy for work experience) are two key workers’ characteristics to be included in CALI measures, with additional workers characteristics having a more limited impact. Replacing a traditional measure of labour input, such as hours worked, with a measure of CALI in the growth accounts leads to a significant downward revision in multifactor productivity (MFP) growth in countries that experience large changes in the composition of labour. |
| Keywords: | growth accounts, hours worked, labour input, multifactor productivity (MFP), productivity |
| JEL: | E1 E24 J21 |
| Date: | 2024–08–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stdaaa:2024/06-en |
| By: | Frondel, Manuel; Thiel, Patrick; Vance, Colin |
| Abstract: | Exploiting exogenous variation in retail fuel prices from a temporary fuel tax discount in Germany, we estimate how the pass-through of the discount varies over space and time. We draw on daily gasoline prices of virtually all gas stations in Germany and neighboring France, with France serving as a control, and estimate an event study model covering the full period of the discount from June to August 2022. We find average pass-through rates on the order of 87% for diesel and 71% for petrol, but with substantially lower rates in high-income regions and in regions with a low degree of competition. More strikingly, our results suggest pronounced heterogeneity over time: The magnitude of the pass-through rate dissipates sharply over the three months in which the discount was in effect, dropping to 50% by the final month, a pattern consistent with retailer responses to short-term changes in consumer attention. Taken together, our results indicate that average pass-through estimates may obscure a high degree of spatial and temporal heterogeneity that bears upon the assessment of competition and distributional effects: While our estimation of the budgetary costs of the discount confirms the government's a priori estimate of €3.1 billion, we find that about 61% of the discount's financial relief accrues to households with above-median incomes. |
| Abstract: | Unter Ausnutzung exogener Schwankungen der Einzelhandelspreise für Kraftstoffe, die sich aus einer zeitlich begrenzten Ermäßigung der Kraftstoffsteuer in Deutschland ergeben, schätzen wir, wie sich die Weitergabe der Ermäßigung über Raum und Zeit verändert. Wir greifen auf die täglichen Benzinpreise von praktisch allen Tankstellen in Deutschland und dem benachbarten Frankreich, wobei Frankreich als Kontrollgruppe dient, zurück und schätzen ein Event-Study-Modell, das den gesamten Zeitraum des Rabatts von Juni bis August 2022 abdeckt. Wir finden durchschnittliche Überwälzungsraten in der Größenordnung von 87 % für Diesel und 71 % für Benzin, wobei die Raten in Regionen mit hohem Einkommen und in Regionen mit geringem Wettbewerb deutlich niedriger sind. Noch auffälliger ist, dass unsere Ergebnisse auf eine ausgeprägte Heterogenität im Zeitverlauf hindeuten: Die Höhe der Weitergabequote nimmt im Laufe der drei Monate, in denen der Rabatt in Kraft war, stark ab und sinkt bis zum letzten Monat auf 50 %, ein Muster, das mit den Reaktionen der Einzelhändler auf kurzfristige Veränderungen der Verbraucheraufmerksamkeit übereinstimmt. Insgesamt deuten unsere Ergebnisse darauf hin, dass die Schätzungen des durchschnittlichen Pass-Through ein hohes Maß an räumlicher und zeitlicher Heterogenität verdecken können, die sich auf die Bewertung der Wettbewerbs- und Verteilungseffekte auswirkt: Während unsere Schätzung der Haushaltskosten des Rabatts die A-priori-Schätzung der Regierung von 3, 1 Milliarden Euro bestätigt, stellen wir fest, dass etwa 61% der finanziellen Entlastung durch den Rabatt Haushalten mit überdurchschnittlichem Einkommen zugute kommt. |
| Keywords: | Competition, demand elasticity, fuel tax discount, gasoline market |
| JEL: | L13 L81 D43 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:300564 |
| By: | Katy Bergstrom (Tulane University); William Dodds (Tulane University) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a general theory to recover the inverse welfare function that rationalizes a given tax schedule as optimal. Our theory allows for complex environments including the presence of multidimensional tax schedules, bunching/jumping behavior, optimization frictions, general equilibrium effects, and externalities. We show how inverse welfare functions can be used to assess the desirability of tax reforms and to test for Pareto efficiency. We numerically construct several inverse welfare functions for piecewise-linear income taxation, taxation with optimization frictions, joint income and property taxation, income taxation with labor demand and endogenous wages, and taxation with inequality aversion. |
| Keywords: | inverse welfare function, inverse welfare weights, frictions, multidimensional taxation, general equilibrium, Pareto efficiency |
| JEL: | H21 H31 D60 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:wpaper:2408 |
| By: | David Pérez-Mesa (University of La Laguna, CEDESOG and EQUALITAS); Ã ngel S. Marrero (University of La Laguna, CEDESOG and EQUALITAS) |
| Abstract: | We apply the theory of inequality of opportunity to examine health inequality among adults in Spain. Using a survey module conducted by the Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS) in 2017, we assess the role played by and disentangle the contributions of circumstances, efforts and lifestyles, and demographic variables in explaining adult health inequality. Additionally, we analyse the mediating role of individual education in the relationship between circumstances and health. Our findings underscore the significant relevance of unfair factors (circumstances) and demographics in the generation of adult health inequality, as opposed to the minimal contribution of fair factors (efforts and lifestyles). Furthermore, we show that education significantly influences health, mitigating the impact of certain circumstances and serving as a transmission channel for others. In light of these findings, individuals' efforts and lifestyles alone are insufficient to counterbalance unfair circumstances beyond their control. Therefore, improving circumstances and early-life factors, or reducing their impact on health through the implementation of compensatory policies, is essential for reducing health inequality and promoting equal opportunities for inclusive development. |
| Keywords: | Adult health, Health inequality, Inequality of opportunity, Spain |
| JEL: | D6 I14 I18 I30 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2024-671 |
| By: | Jessica N. Flagg; Simona Hannon |
| Abstract: | Small-dollar loans were brought into the spotlight in March 2020, when five agencies—the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA), and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC)—issued a joint statement encouraging their supervised financial institutions to offer such loans to consumers and small businesses in response to the onset of the pandemic. |
| Date: | 2024–07–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2024-07-19-1 |
| By: | Yann Raineau (UR ETTIS - Environnement, territoires en transition, infrastructures, sociétés - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Marianne Lefebvre (UA - Université d'Angers); Chantal Le Mouël (INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Jesus Barreiro Hurle (Joint Research Center, Ispra, Italy); Thomas M Chappell (Texas A&M University System); Marius Wolf; Marco de Toffol; Dimitri Dubois (Groupama); Sylvain Coutu (AXA Climate); Niklas Möhring (Universität Bonn = University of Bonn); Marco Rogna; Emilio Rodriguez Cerezo (Joint Research Center, Ispra, Italy); Manuel Gomez-Barbero (Joint Research Center, Ispra, Italy) |
| Abstract: | Plant pests and diseases can cause considerable impacts on crop yields, and in turn food and feed security. Pesticides are one of the most frequent tools used to control or eliminate these pests and diseases playing a crucial role to assure food security. However, pesticide use also leads to undesired environmental and health impacts. The European Commission´s Joint Research Centre organized a workshop in November 2023 to explore innovative alternative business models that are emerging to facilitate reductions in pesticide use and risk while minimizing impacts in food security. This report summarizes the contributions presented at the workshop covering the legislative framework for pesticide reduction, theoretical considerations on pesticide reduction behaviour, examples of new technologies and business models being developed and insights from research on their potential to facilitate the transition to a low-pesticide use agriculture. The overall message stemming from the workshop is that outcome-based services and insurance policies can be key tool to enable farmers to achieve this reduction. However, the existing empirical evidence of the performance of these tools is still very scarce and these new business models still have to show their potential when upscaling from pre-commercial stage. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04628080 |
| By: | Stéphan Marette (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Caroline Lejars (UMR G-EAU - Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs, Usages - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Diane Briard (DIAGONAL - Direction Appui au Pilotage - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Christophe Chassard (UMRF - Unité Mixte de Recherche sur le Fromage - VAS - VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Véronique Decroocq (BFP - Biologie du fruit et pathologie - UB - Université de Bordeaux - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Mariette Ducatez (IHAP - Interactions hôtes-agents pathogènes [Toulouse] - ENVT - Ecole Nationale Vétérinaire de Toulouse - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - UT - Université de Toulouse - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Esther Dzale Yeumo (GenEval); Alexandra Jullien (ECOSYS - Ecologie fonctionnelle et écotoxicologie des agroécosystèmes - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); François Jullien (Association Dé-coïncidences); Eric Justes (Cirad-PERSYST - Département Performances des systèmes de production et de transformation tropicaux - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Thibaut Malausa (INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Fabrice Martin-Laurent (Agroécologie [Dijon] - UB - Université de Bourgogne - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Dijon - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Jean-Denis Mathias (UR LISC - Laboratoire d'ingénierie pour les systèmes complexes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Pierre Pétriacq (BFP - Biologie du fruit et pathologie - UB - Université de Bordeaux - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Juliette Riquet (GenPhySE - Génétique Physiologie et Systèmes d'Elevage - ENVT - Ecole Nationale Vétérinaire de Toulouse - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - UT - Université de Toulouse - ENSAT - École nationale supérieure agronomique de Toulouse - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - UT - Université de Toulouse - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Sloan Salètes (Cirad-Dgdrs - Direction Générale Déléguée à la Recherche et à la Stratégie - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, Vitropic S.A.); Alexia Stokes (Inrae, UMR AMAP - Botanique et Modélisation de l'Architecture des Plantes et des Végétations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IRD [France-Sud] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Anne Trémier (UR OPAALE - Optimisation des procédés en Agriculture, Agroalimentaire et Environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Nathalie Vachiery (UMR ASTRE - Animal, Santé, Territoires, Risques et Ecosystèmes - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | The great fragility of ecosystems supporting food production requires alternative ways of thinking regarding the scientific research, as well as a bold analysis of public policies to be implemented to feed the planet, in an environment that would become hostile to agricultural production. In order to preserve the food ecosystems essential to human development, this book presents anticipatory visions and prospective analyzes based on the concept of "de-coincidence", developed by the philosopher François Jullien. This search for a creative sense, freed from the coincidences of common sense, from the "déjà vu", invites us to rethink the methods of organizing research in agronomy or in the field of the environment in order to encourage initiatives that go off the beaten track. Implementing new forms of research organization is necessary. It is also important to consider "worst" scenarios, in particular by imagining extreme configurations for the future, in which food production would become impossible in a "natural" environment. In order to define innovative solutions and effective public policies, this work offers three "de-coincident" essays aimed at designing pathways that would make it possible to prepare for the transformations to come. The first essay discusses institutional solutions for promoting de-coincident research. The next one focuses on a fictitious "worst-case" scenario in a context of extreme global warming. Eventually, the last essay analyzes what we can do "right now" to brace for "the worst" and prevent certain crises from occurring. |
| Abstract: | La très grande fragilité des écosystèmes supportant la production alimentaire nécessite une réflexion alternative sur les orientations de la recherche scientifique, ainsi qu'une analyse audacieuse des politiques publiques à mettre en œuvre pour nourrir la planète, dans un environnement qui deviendrait hostile à la production agricole. Afin de préserver les écosystèmes alimentaires indispensables au développement humain, ce livre présente des visions anticipatrices et des analyses prospectives relevant du concept de dé-coïncidence, développé par le philosophe François Jullien. Cette recherche d'un sens créatif affranchi des coïncidences du sens commun, du « déjà-vu », invite à repenser les modes d'organisation de la recherche en agronomie ou dans le domaine de l'environnement afin de favoriser des initiatives sortant des sentiers battus. Mettre en place de nouvelles formes de structuration de la recherche est nécessaire, de même qu'envisager le pire, notamment en imaginant de manière frontale des configurations extrêmes, dans lesquelles la production alimentaire deviendrait impossible en milieu « naturel ». Afin de définir des solutions innovantes et des politiques publiques efficaces, cet ouvrage propose trois essais dé-coïncidents visant à concevoir des cheminements qui permettraient de se préparer aux transformations à venir. Le premier essai évoque des pistes institutionnelles pour favoriser une recherche dé-coïncidente. Le suivant se focalise sur un scénario fictif « du pire » dans un contexte très dégradé par le réchauffement climatique. Enfin, le dernier essai analyse ce que nous pouvons faire « dès à présent » pour se préparer « au pire » et empêcher certaines crises d'advenir. |
| Keywords: | Dé-coïncidence |
| Date: | 2024–07–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04630167 |
| By: | Babu, Suresh; Tohirzoda, Sino; Akramov, Kamiljon; Srivastava, Nandita; Aliev, Jovidon |
| Abstract: | The Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action endorsed by over 150 countries at UNFCCC-COP28 highlights global recognition of the unprecedented adverse climate impacts on food systems resilience and the need to expedite the integration of agriculture and food systems into climate action. While integration is necessary to ensure favorable sectoral level climate action outcomes, there are currently no concrete frameworks and case studies showcasing how to support this integration process at the country level. A recent study focused on Tajikistan uses a conceptual framework to undertake such an integration analysis of key national level climate change related and agriculture policy documents. It identifies synergies and existing gaps and provides recommendations on strengthening sectoral integration to achieve climate change goals. This study was funded by the USAID mission in Tajikistan and USAID’s Comprehensive Action for Climate Change Initiative (CACCI)-Asia under their support to the Committee for Environmental Protection (CEP) of Tajikistan toward the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) through technical support from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). |
| Keywords: | agrifood systems; climate change; policies; rice; Tajikistan; Asia; Central Asia |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:141640 |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | The Alliance of Sahel States (AES), created in September 2023 by the three military governments of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso as a counterweight to ECOWAS and the post-colonial influence of France and other Western countries, announced the creation of a confederation of its three countries in July 2024. The AES countries have more in common than the other countries of the Sahel. First, they are the centre of the Sahel and most vulnerable to jihadism. They figure among the least developed countries, with 40% to 50% of the population living in poverty. They are also landlocked countries with vast desert areas, making them more vulnerable to climate change. Finally, they are the countries with the highest population growth in the Sahel, with an average of six children per woman. The creation of the AES came amid a decade of escalating unrest in the Sahel, fuelled by the aftermath of the NATO-led intervention in Libya in 2011. The resulting instability caused rampant arms trafficking and the rise of armed groups linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. Previous leaders have often put French interests ahead of those of their own people, allowing the continued exploitation of the region's natural resources, including uranium, gold and manganese, without much benefit to the local population. In the face of critical comments from the AU about the AES countries' exit from ECOWAS, the former rejected any interference in their internal affairs. The AES confederation will expand the operational space of the junta alliance and consolidate its military and economic partnership with Russia and China, as well as Turkey and Iran. However, the AES secession undermines the legitimacy of ECOWAS by hindering regional economic and security integration and further complicating the return to democratization. The confederation will seek to absorb new members such as Chad, Guinea and Sudan to further strengthen its power and legitimacy as an alternative regional bloc. However, a divided Sahel will make tackling regional challenges even more difficult. If the AES were to replace the CFA franc with its own currency, as announced, and other Francophone countries in the UEMOA were to follow suit, this would require a fundamental restructuring of both the UEMOA and ECOWAS and finally also call into question the introduction of the ECO, the new common West African currency, planned for 2027. |
| Keywords: | Alliance des États du Sahel; Afrique de l'Ouest; Sahel; CEDEAO; UEMOA; Djihadisme; Décolonisation; Nationalisme; Souveraineté; Développement durable; Gouvernance; Franc CFA; Mali; Niger; Burkina Faso; Guinée, Nigeria; France; Russie, Chine; |
| JEL: | F15 F35 F52 F53 F54 H77 N17 N47 O17 O55 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–07–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121550 |
| By: | Yuji Shinozaki (Deputy Director, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (currently, Associate Professor, Musashino University, E-mail:y-shino@musashino-u.ac.jp)) |
| Abstract: | The application of machine learning to the field of finance has recently become the subject of active discussions. In particular, the deep learning is expected to significantly advance the techniques of hedging and calibration. As these two techniques play a central role in financial engineering and mathematical finance, the application to them attracts attentions of both practitioners and researchers. Deep hedging, which applies deep learning to hedging, is expected to make it possible to analyze how factors such as transaction costs affect hedging strategies. Since the impact of these factors was difficult to be assessed quantitatively due to the computational costs, deep hedging opens possibilities not only for refining and automating hedging operations of derivatives but also for broader applications in risk management. Deep calibration, which applies deep learning to calibration, is expected to make the parameter optimization calculation, which is an essential procedure in derivative pricing and risk management, faster and more stable. This paper provides an overview of the existing literature and suggests future research directions from both practical and academic perspectives. Specifically, the paper shows the implications of deep learning to existing theoretical frameworks and practical motivations in finance and identifies potential future developments that deep learning can bring about and the practical challenges. |
| Keywords: | Financial engineering, Mathematical finance, Derivatives, Hedging, Calibration, Numerical optimization |
| JEL: | C63 G12 G13 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:24-e-02 |
| By: | Aizenman , Joshua (University of Southern California); Park, Donghyun (Asian Development Bank); Qureshi , Irfan (Asian Development Bank); Saadaoui, Jamel (Université Paris 8); Uddin, Gazi Salah (Linköping University) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the determinants of the performance of emerging markets (EMs) during five United States (US) Federal Reserve monetary tightening and easing cycles from 2004 to 2023. We study how macroeconomic and institutional conditions of an EM at the beginning of a cycle explain EM resilience during each cycle. More specifically, our baseline cross-sectional regressions examine how those conditions affect three measures of resilience: bilateral exchange rate against the US dollar, exchange rate market pressure, and economy-specific Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) index. We then stack the five cross-sections to build a panel database to investigate potential asymmetry between tightening versus easing cycles. Our evidence indicates that macroeconomic and institutional variables are associated with EM performance, determinants of resilience differ during tightening versus easing cycles, and institutions matter more during difficult times. Our specific findings are largely consistent with economic intuition. For instance, we find that current account balance, international reserves, and inflation are all important determinants of EM resilience. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy cycle; emerging markets; resilience; macroeconomic fundamentals; Federal Reserve |
| JEL: | E58 |
| Date: | 2024–08–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0735 |
| By: | King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | CO2 emissions from aviation are a priority for policymakers, researchers, entities, and governments worldwide. Traditional approaches to analyzing the aviation sector must be modified because aviation practices are no longer supply driven. In fact, the recent increase in environmental awareness worldwide has modified previous motorized-oriented approaches to be more energy efficient by investigating how the system is designed rather than considering the provision of infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | Aviation oil consumption, Aviation oil demand, Crude oil, Diesel |
| Date: | 2023–04–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:wbrief:ks--2022-wb09 |
| By: | Andrew Estornell; Stylianos Loukas Vasileiou; William Yeoh; Daniel Borrajo; Rui Silva |
| Abstract: | In today's competitive financial landscape, understanding and anticipating customer goals is crucial for institutions to deliver a personalized and optimized user experience. This has given rise to the problem of accurately predicting customer goals and actions. Focusing on that problem, we use historical customer traces generated by a realistic simulator and present two simple models for predicting customer goals and future actions -- an LSTM model and an LSTM model enhanced with state-space graph embeddings. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of these models when it comes to predicting customer goals and actions. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2406.19399 |
| By: | DI PIETRO Giorgio (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Skill shortage is an impediment to innovation and economic growth. It is a serious problem in the EU that may undermine its competitiveness, Data from a recent Eurobarometer survey suggest that EU companies perceive more problems in recruiting staff with adequate skills than comparable companies outside the EU. Additionally, the former are also more likely to report than the latter that they have difficulties in filling jobs for master's or PhD degree holders and in recruiting R&D experts. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc138167 |
| By: | Cevat Giray Aksoy; Andreas Baur; Lisandra Flach; Beata Javorcik |
| Abstract: | Most German companies have continued adjusting their sourcing strategies to mitigate the risk of supply chain disruptions This is continuation of the process that started in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic Diversification of suppliers (58 percent) and increased stockpiling (45 percent) are the most frequently mentioned measures taken within the last 12 months The share of firms increasing their inventories in 2023 was lower than in 2022 (45 percent vs. 68 percent). Only 12 percent of firms intend to increase stockpiling in the coming 12 months, suggesting that the process of inventory adjustment may be nearing completion In contrast, the share of firms that further diversified their supply chains has remained relatively stable since 2022. Moreover, almost one-third of respondents plans to add new suppliers within a year |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:econpb:_56 |
| By: | Jessen, Lasse J.; Köhne, Sebastian; Nüß, Patrick; Ruhose, Jens |
| Abstract: | Using survey experiments in the United States and Germany with 12, 000 participants, we examine perceptions of life expectancy inequality between rich and poor people. The life expectancy of the poor is underestimated more than that of the rich, leading to exaggerated perceptions of inequality in both countries. Receiving accurate information narrows concerns about this inequality. However, the impact of information on policy demand is limited because support for policies addressing life expectancy for the poor is consistently high, regardless of varying perceptions of inequality. We conclude that there is strong and unconditional public support for health equity policies. |
| Keywords: | socioeconomic inequality in life expectancy, health care, information treatment, survey experiment |
| JEL: | C90 D71 D83 I14 I18 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cauewp:300522 |