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on Investment |
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Issue of 2024‒06‒17
fifty-nine papers chosen by |
| By: | Jang, Won-Joon (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Kim, Mi Jung (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Park, Hea Ji (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | The newly elected government in Poland has made a series of public statements suggesting it may review the major defense contract that its predecessor administration signed with Korea. On December 27, 2023, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that his government had yet to receive the contractually specified loans necessary for Poland to finalize the purchase and acquisition of Korean weapons and technologies. Tusk hinted that his government may review the entirety of the contract, while suggesting that he did not wish to see any changes made to it. Seeing its major arms deal with Poland collapse would make it much more difficult for the Korean government to realize its vision of making Korea one of the four major global defense exporters. Over the past two years, Korea and Poland have concluded a two-phase defense contract. The first is worth USD 12.4 billion and would see Korea send K2 tanks and other major systems to Poland. The second phase is worth USD 2.6 billion, and involves the sale of K9 self-propelled howitzers, among other systems. The two countries are yet to complete the third phase of the contract, which could be worth as much as USD 30 billion. This would see more K2 tanks and K9 howitzers shipped to Poland, along with K239 multiple-launch rocket systems. Failing to close the deal would be a significant setback to Korea’s plans to increase its exports to the rest of Europe and the world. It is crucial that the government take immediate action to amend the Export-Import Bank of Korea Act. This is necessary to raise the ceiling on the Export-Import Bank of Korea (Eximbank)’s capital reserves, from the current KRW 15 trillion to KRW 35 trillion or more. Incentives should also be devised to encourage Korean commercial banks to participate (by providing syndicated loans, for example), helping to mitigate interest rate risk and facilitate the purchase of Polish sovereign debt. |
| Keywords: | arms deals; weapons systems; Korea-Poland deal; defense financing; defense exports; arms industry; defense industry; weapons exports; K2 tank; K9 howitzer; K239 rocket; KIET |
| JEL: | F13 F53 G21 G28 G32 G38 L52 L62 L64 |
| Date: | 2024–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietia:2024_002&r= |
| By: | Alvaro Silva; Julian di Giovanni; Muhammed A. Yildirim (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan |
| Abstract: | We estimate a multi-country multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of domestic inflation during 2020–2023 in several countries, including the United States. The model matches observed inflation together with sector-level prices and wages. We further measure the relative importance of different types of shocks on inflation across countries over time. The key mechanism, the international transmission of demand, supply and energy shocks through global linkages helps us to match the behavior of the USD/Euro exchange rate. The quantification exercise yields four key findings. First, negative supply shocks to factors of production, labor and intermediate inputs, initially sparked inflation in 2020–2021. Global supply chains and complementarities in production played an amplification role in this initial phase. Second, positive aggregate demand shocks, due to stimulative policies, widened demand-supply imbalances, amplifying inflation further during 2021–2022. Third, the reallocation of consumption between goods and service sectors, a relative sector-level demand shock, played a role in transmitting these imbalances across countries through the global trade and production network. Fourth, global energy shocks have differential impacts on the US relative to other countries’ inflation rates. Further, complementarities between energy and other inputs to production play a particularly important role in the quantitative impact of these shocks on inflation. |
| Keywords: | Russia, Ukraine, China, COVID-19, Inflation |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cid:wpfacu:440&r= |
| By: | Sascha Keil (Chemnitz University of Technology); Walter Paternesi Meloni (Sapienza University of Rome) |
| Abstract: | Over the past decades, models of circular and cumulative causation, based on the endogenous relations between prices, exports, and labour productivity, have lost prominence in explaining economic dynamics. We argue that, in the absence of counterbalancing mechanisms, the combination of price-sensitive exports and the triggering effect of exports on productivity can enable feedback loops and can significantly shape macroeconomic reality in the short-to-medium run. We apply an adapted export-led model of cumulative causation to 10 major countries belonging the Euro area, a region characterized by divergent wage growth trajectories reflected in divergent export competitiveness and lack of equilibrating mechanisms. Specifically, the model is tested for the period 1995–2020 employing a country-level system of equations (3SLS-ARDL). Our findings indicate that for the majority of the countries examined, this feedback mechanism – comprising price-sensitive exports and export demand affecting productivity growth – exacerbates macroeconomic disparities in terms of labour productivity. While nominal wages act as a potential trigger through their impact on price competitiveness, they also serve as a central factor that retards the feedback mechanism due to the Verdoorn effect of wage-induced demand. Overall, our results affirm the significance of price-induced and export-led theories of cumulative causation while also delineating its limitations, particularly regarding price competitiveness-oriented export-led growth strategies. |
| Keywords: | international trade, export, competitiveness, unit labour cost, wages, productivity, European imbalances |
| JEL: | F16 F41 J30 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tch:wpaper:cep063&r= |
| By: | Lin, Zhuoer (Yale University); Yin, Xuecheng (Oklahoma State University); Levy, Becca R. (Yale University); Yuan, Yue (Lehigh University); Chen, Xi (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | Cognitive impairment poses considerable challenges among older adults, with the protective role of family support becoming increasingly crucial. This study examines the role of children's residential proximity and spousal presence with dementia risk in cognitively impaired older adults. We analyzed 14, 600 individuals aged 50 and older with cognitive impairment from the Health and Retirement Study (1995-2018). Family support was categorized by spousal presence and children's residential proximity. Modifiable risk factors, including smoking, depressive symptoms, and social isolation, were assessed. Mixed-effects models were estimated. A significant proportion of older adults with cognitive impairment lacked access to family support, with either no spouse (46.9%) or all children living over 10 miles away (25.3%). Those with less available family support, characterized by distant-residing children and the absence of a spouse, had a significantly higher percentage of smoking, depressive symptoms, and social isolation. Moreover, we revealed a consistent gradient in the percentage of the risk factors by the degree of family support. Relative to older adults with a spouse and co-resident children, those without a spouse and with all children residing further than 10 miles displayed the highest percentage of the risk factors. These findings were robust to various sensitivity analyses. |
| Keywords: | dementia, depression, social isolation, smoking, long-term care, family support, residential proximity |
| JEL: | I12 J14 I18 I11 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16997&r= |
| By: | Buchholz, Maximilian; Storper, Michael |
| Abstract: | The large labor markets of big prosperous cities offer greater possibilities for workers to gain skills and experience through successively better employment opportunities. This "experience effect" contributes to the higher average wages that are found in big urban areas compared to the economy as a whole. Racial wage inequality is also higher in bigger cities than in the economy on average. We offer an explanation for this pattern, demonstrating that there is substantial racial inequality in the economic returns to work experience acquired in big cities. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1979 we find that each year of big city work experience is worth about one quarter to half as much for Black and Latinx workers as it is for White workers, in terms of hourly wages. One-third of this inequality can be explained by racial disparities in the benefits of high-skill work experience. This research identifies a heretofore unknown source of inequality that is distinctly urban in nature, and expands our knowledge of the challenges to reaching inter-racial wage equality. |
| Date: | 2024–05–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:24cvs&r= |
| By: | Angela Cools; Jared Grooms; Krzysztof Karbownik; Siobhan O'Keefe; Joseph Price; Anthony Wray |
| Abstract: | The nineteenth-century American family experienced tremendous demographic, economic, and institutional changes. By using birth order effects as a proxy for family environment, and linked census data on men born between 1835 and 1910, we study how the family’s role in human capital production evolved over this period. We find firstborn premiums for occupational outcomes, marriage, and fertility that are similar across census waves. Our results indicate that the returns to investments in the family environment were stable over a long period. |
| Keywords: | birth order, parental investments, occupation outcomes, intergenerational mobility, marriage, fertility |
| JEL: | J13 J62 N30 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11095&r= |
| By: | Jacob Michels (UNL); Yacob Abrehe Zereyesus (USDA ERS); John Beghin (UNL and Iowa State University) |
| Abstract: | We compute corrections for sedentary behavior in physical activity levels (PALs) and incorporate them along with corrections for over estimation of basal metabolic rates (BMRs) into threshold caloric intakes, known as Minimum Dietary Energy Requirements (MDERs). Using these modified MDERs, we compute new estimates of food insecure populations using USDA-ERS International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) model for the 83 countries covered by IFSA for 2023. We compute moderate upward biases in the FAO’s MDERs due to sedentarism of 3.52% or 57.49 kcal a day, leading to an average of 1720 caloric MDER, which translate to reductions in the estimate of food insecure population of 71.3 million in the 83 IFSA countries. With both BMR and PAL corrections, the MDER falls to 1638 kcal on average and the food insecure population estimate falls by 173.6 million. Relative to USDA-ERS’ 2100-calorie threshold estimating 1.056 billion food-insecure, the 1638 kcal per capita per day accounting for BMR and PAL corrections would result in 711.7 million reductions. Robustness checks using a lognormal distribution approach with FAO data confirm similar large responses of food insecure population estimates to the MDER corrections for the same countries. Beyond the correction for systematic upward bias, estimating more precise MDERs will lead to more precise food insecure estimates. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2024–05–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nbaesp:342426&r= |
| By: | Mark Bryan (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S1 4DT, UK); Andrew Bryce (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S1 4DT, UK); Jennifer Roberts (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S1 4DT, UK); Cristina Sechel (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S1 4DT, UK) |
| Abstract: | The UK is one of the most spatially unequal countries in the developed world, and there is a long recognised need to ‘level up’ the economy. A strong case can be made to suggest that disabled people are particularly disadvantaged when living in a ‘left behind’ area and hence have the most to gain from levelling up. The disability employment gap, that is the difference between the employment rates of non-disabled people and disabled people, was 31 percentage points (pp) in Great Britain as a whole between 2014 and 2019 but ranged from 17pp to 43pp at local (ITL3) level. Using novel decomposition techniques we find that the key drivers of this spatial variation, each explaining similar shares, are local population characteristics and economic structure, including the level and nature of labour demand in geographical areas and the industry composition of the area. However, spatial variation in healthcare capacity, social capital, employer policies towards disability and the stringency of statutory welfare provision do not appear to have an effect on the gap. Our results suggest that locally adapted policies to narrow the gap may be more effective than a one-size-fits-all approach. |
| Keywords: | disability employment gap, spatial inequalities |
| JEL: | I14 J14 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2024002&r= |
| By: | Hwalshin KIM (Sungkonghoe University, Seoul, (Republic of Korea)); Seungkwon JANG (Sungkonghoe University, Seoul, (Republic of Korea)) |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes how the characteristics of information systems appear in cooperatives and what organizational results they have. Advances in technology reveal that information systems are not just mechanical devices or technologies but are social material beings co-constructed with human actors such as developers and users (Law, 2009; Suchman, 2007). This social material perspective on information systems shows that information systems are continuously reconstructed through social material practices of human and non-human actors (Orlikowski, 2010; Orlikowski & Scott, 2015; Scott & Orlikowski, 2014). This paper defines the information system as an actor-network composed of human and non-human actors. It shows through the case of a cooperative in Korea that the social material practices of the actor-network reconstruct the information system. Through the conversion process of the information system, the cooperative information systems were reconstructed into different forms through different social material practices of its members. It formed a multiple information system actor-network. Furthermore, the members do not establish the cooperative's organizational management principle but mix it with the organizational management principle existing before the conversion, so the members perform different practices. Converting the cooperative information system shows that the information system has multiplicity, dynamic, contingent, and indetermination characteristics. When we consider these information system characteristics in the management field, we increase user participation and the effectiveness of information system introduction by being free from the rigidity of technology. |
| Keywords: | Information System, Cooperative, Actor-Network, Sociomaterial Practice, Korea |
| JEL: | M15 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crc:wpaper:2401&r= |
| By: | Emanuele Bacchiocchi; Toru Kitagawa |
| Abstract: | In this paper we propose a class of structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) characterized by structural breaks (SVAR-WB). Together with standard restrictions on the parameters and on functions of them, we also consider constraints across the different regimes. Such constraints can be either (a) in the form of stability restrictions, indicating that not all the parameters or impulse responses are subject to structural changes, or (b) in terms of inequalities regarding particular characteristics of the SVAR-WB across the regimes. We show that all these kinds of restrictions provide benefits in terms of identification. We derive conditions for point and set identification of the structural parameters of the SVAR-WB, mixing equality, sign, rank and stability restrictions, as well as constraints on forecast error variances (FEVs). As point identification, when achieved, holds locally but not globally, there will be a set of isolated structural parameters that are observationally equivalent in the parametric space. In this respect, both common frequentist and Bayesian approaches produce unreliable inference as the former focuses on just one of these observationally equivalent points, while for the latter on a non-vanishing sensitivity to the prior. To overcome these issues, we propose alternative approaches for estimation and inference that account for all admissible observationally equivalent structural parameters. Moreover, we develop a pure Bayesian and a robust Bayesian approach for doing inference in set-identified SVAR-WBs. Both the theory of identification and inference are illustrated through a set of examples and an empirical application on the transmission of US monetary policy over the great inflation and great moderation regimes. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2405.04973&r= |
| By: | Robert Lehmann; Lara Zarges |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we outline material and capital linkages across sectors to quantify the role of the German production network in amplifying sectoral dynamics on aggregate trend gross domestic product growth. This allows us to study the impact of sectoral labor input and total factor productivity trend growth variation on the persistent decline in long-run output growth. Our estimation reveals that sector-specific developments have historically accounted for half of this long-term decline. Zooming into the reunification period, we find a pronounced decline of total factor productivity growth in Professional and Business Services together with a fall in labor input growth in the Construction sector to drive the sharp decline of German trend output growth over the 1990s. We further document significant changes regarding the sectors’ importance as input suppliers to the economy over the past decades. Our analysis identifies the labor-intensive Construction sector as a major input hub in the production network, its long-run amplification effect exceeding four times its share in value added. Given the impending demographic change, the low potential for automation in this sector may significantly reduce future German trend output growth. |
| Keywords: | trend GDP growth, sectoral multiplier, amplification effects, structural change |
| JEL: | C32 E22 E23 O41 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11089&r= |
| By: | Sharan Sharma (National Council of Applied Economic Research); Sonalde Desai (National Council of Applied Economic Research); Debasis Barik (National Council of Applied Economic Research); O.P. Sharma (National Council of Applied Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | Fertility histories are subject to measurement errors such as incorrect birth dates, incorrect birth orders, incorrect sex, and omissions. These errors can bias demographic estimates such as fertility rates and child mortality rates. We focus on births missing in fertility histories. We estimate the prevalence of such omissions and study their associated factors. We leverage a panel survey (the India Human Development Survey) where the same women were interviewed in two waves several years apart. We compare data across waves and identify omitted births. Omissions in the second wave are modeled as a function of several child, mother, household, and survey interviewer variables. Models are fit separately to omissions reported alive or dead in the first wave. We conservatively estimate the prevalence of omissions at 4%. A large majority of omitted births are those of dead children, especially infants, with children in poorer households at greater risk of being omitted. For children alive in wave 1, female children are much more likely to be omitted in wave 2 compared to male children. Interviewers can detect respondent behaviors associated with omissions. Omissions in fertility histories are non-ignorable. They do not randomly occur but affect some population sub-groups and some interview contexts more than others. We investigate the understudied but important phenomenon of omitted births in fertility histories. We bring attention to possible biases in demographic estimates. We shed light on the survey process and propose strategies for minimizing the bias through improved survey design |
| Keywords: | Fertility history, Panel data, Measurement error, Missing data, Survey Methodology |
| Date: | 2024–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:166&r= |
| By: | Bardt, Hubertus; Demary, Markus; Grömling, Michael; Henger, Ralph; Hentze, Tobias; Obst, Thomas; Pimpertz, Jochen; Schaefer, Thilo; Schäfer, Holger; Seele, Stefanie |
| Abstract: | Die wirtschaftlichen Rahmenbedingungen haben sich in den letzten Monaten nicht wesentlich verbessert. Die geoökonomischen Schocks - der Krieg in der Ukraine und die Unsicherheiten in Osteuropa, die Konflikte im Nahen Osten, die politischen Ungewissheiten im Fernen Osten sowie das insgesamt nicht von Kooperation geprägte Miteinander in der Weltgemeinschaft - bremsen auch weiterhin das Tempo der Weltwirtschaft. Hinzu kommt das gegenwärtige Fehlen der über lange Zeit gewohnt hohen Wirtschaftsimpulse aus China. Trotz der angespannten geopolitischen Lage wird in der vorliegenden Prognose davon ausgegangen, dass die Lieferketten und die Energieversorgung stabil und gesichert bleiben. Die auch damit einhergehende Normalisierung der Inflationsraten eröffnet den Notenbanken den Spielraum, im weiteren Jahresverlauf eine Senkung der Zentralbankzinsen einzuleiten. Die aktuell höheren Zinsen und ihre Auswirkungen für die Finanzierung von Investitionen entfalten aber auch in diesem Jahr noch ihre dämpfenden Wirkungen. Vor diesem Hintergrund bleiben die Aussichten für die Weltkonjunktur moderat. Die globale Wirtschaftsleistung wird 2024 mit einem ähnlichen Expansionstempo wie im Jahr 2023 in Höhe von 2 ½ Prozent zulegen. Beim globalen Warenhandel ist nach der Schrumpfung im Jahr 2023 von einer sachten Erholung im Jahr 2024 mit einem Wachstum von 1 Prozent auszugehen. Das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird in Deutschland im Jahr 2024 stagnieren. Die Erwartung einer anhaltend schwachen wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung wird von Unternehmensbefragungen untermauert. Vor allem die Industrie und die Bauwirtschaft bleiben in der Rezession verhaftet. Mit Blick auf die gesamtwirtschaftliche Nachfrage kommen positive Impulse ausschließlich vom Konsum. Der private Konsum liefert den größten Wachstumsbeitrag von einem ½ Prozentpunkt. Die wieder deutlich niedrigere Inflationsrate von rund 2 ¼ Prozent unterstützt dies. Marginal positive Impulse kommen vom Staatskonsum. Dagegen bremst die Investitionstätigkeit das Wachstumstempo auch in diesem Jahr empfindlich ab. Der Außenhandel bleibt schwach und der Außenbeitrag entfaltet keine konjunkturellen Impulse. Trotz der Rekordmarke von 46 Millionen Erwerbstätigen im Jahresdurchschnitt 2024 werden die Auswirkungen der konjunkturellen Schwäche am Arbeitsmarkt in Deutschland stärker sichtbar. Die Arbeitslosenquote erhöht sich im Jahresdurchschnitt 2024 auf fast 6 Prozent. Das Staatsdefizit wird sich auf 68 Milliarden Euro oder -1 ½ Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts belaufen. Es ist durchaus plausibel, dass sich vieles zum Besseren wendet und damit eine schnellere und vor allem kräftigere Erholung auf globaler Ebene sowie in Deutschland eingeläutet wird. Jedoch hängt dies im Wesentlichen von den politischen Entwicklungen in vielen Ländern ab. Doch auch die deutsche Wirtschaftspolitik ist gefordert, die Stagnationskrise zu überwinden. Dazu bedarf es eines kraftvollen angebotspolitischen Anschubs, mit dem die allgemeinen Standortbedingungen ernsthaft verbessert, aber auch die speziellen Investitionsbedingungen für die vielfältigen Transformationsaufgaben gestaltet werden. |
| Keywords: | Konjunktur, Weltwirtschaft, Arbeitsmarkt, Staatshaushalt, Finanzmärkte |
| JEL: | E2 E3 E5 E6 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:294842&r= |
| By: | Emre Yoldas |
| Abstract: | Most central banks tightened monetary policy considerably over the past few years as inflation surged globally. Though effects of the COVID pandemic on global supply chains and labor markets was a common factor driving inflation higher across economies, domestic factors led to notable variation in the timing and extent of monetary policy responses. |
| Date: | 2024–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2024-05-10-2&r= |
| By: | Seth R. Gitter (Department of Economics, Towson University); Robert J. Gitter (Department of Economics and Business, Ohio Wesleyan University) |
| Abstract: | Hiring a new economics faculty member is a time-consuming and arduous process, especially for smaller, teaching-oriented programs with limited faculty and budgetary resources. Access to information on graduate programs and candidates that are more likely to yield successful hires allows these programs to allocate scarce resources more efficiently. A dataset of over 650 economics PhD placements at non-economics PhD-granting institutions partially fills this information gap. Results show that new assistant professors in teaching-oriented economics departments tend to be hired from economics PhD-granting institutions with a mean U.S. News and World Report ranking of around 45. In addition, results indicate a positive relationship between the rank of the hiring department and the PhD-granting program. Top-ranked graduate programs in economics send a smaller proportion of their graduates to teaching-oriented institutions, and the average rank of new PhD hires has declined over time. Hires from top PhD- granting programs are more likely to stay at liberal arts colleges and less likely to stay at national universities relative to peers hired at lower-ranked PhD programs. |
| Keywords: | Market for Economists, PhD placements, Small Liberal Arts Schools, and Professor Retention. |
| JEL: | A11 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tow:wpaper:2024-05&r= |
| By: | Sanghyun Hong (University of Canterbury); W. Robert Reed (University of Canterbury) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the reproducibility and robustness of Stanley et al. (2023). Stanley et al. (2023) studied 67, 308 meta-analyses of medical research from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR). They compared estimators using two information criteria: the Bayes Information Criterion (BIC) and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). They concluded that a variant of the Fixed Effect (FE) estimator they call Unrestricted Weighted Least Squares (UWLS) is “a better model of medical research than Random Effects (RE) regardless of heterogeneity, number of studies, or the type of outcome.” With respect to reproducibility, we can report that we are able to exactly reproduce Stanley et al. (2023)’s results. To test the robustness of their findings, we simulated 108, 000 meta-analyses designed to represent the datasets in Stanley et al. (2023). This allowed us to assess estimator performance using bias, mean-squared error, and coverage rates. The overall conclusion we draw from our analysis is that BIC and AIC do not reliably guide the researcher to the “best” estimator when estimating mean treatment effects for medical research in Stanley et al. (2023)’s dataset. Further, the dominance of UWLS as measured by BIC and AIC is not matched by similar dominance on bias, MSE, and coverage rates. Most importantly, there is no evidence to support the headline result from Stanley et al. (2023) that UWLS dominates RE. |
| Keywords: | Meta-analysis, Unrestricted Weighted Least Squares, Fixed Effect, Random Effects, Medical Research, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Replication, Robustness Check, Pre-Registration |
| JEL: | C18 B4 I1 |
| Date: | 2024–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbt:econwp:24/07&r= |
| By: | Sylvain BARTHÉLÉMY (Gwenlake, Rennes, France); Virginie GAUTIER (TAC Economics and Univ Rennes, CNRS, CREM – UMR6211, F-35000 Rennes France); Fabien RONDEAU (Univ Rennes, CNRS, CREM – UMR6211, F-35000 Rennes France) |
| Abstract: | We study the class of congestion games with player-specic payoff functions Milchtaich (1996). Focusing on a case where the number of resources is equal to two, we give a short and simple method for identifying the exact number of Nash equilibria in pure strategies. We propose an algorithmic method, first to find one or more Nash equilibria; second, to compare the optimal Nash equilibrium, in which the social cost is minimized, with the worst Nash equilibrium, in which the converse is true; third, to identify the time associated to the computations when the number of players increases. |
| Keywords: | currency crises, early warning system, neural network, convolutional neural network, SHAP values. |
| JEL: | F14 F31 F47 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tut:cremwp:2024-01&r= |
| By: | Rickels, Wilfried; Fridahl, Mathias; Rothenstein, Roland; Schenuit, Felix |
| Abstract: | A carbon central bank (CCB) that translates carbon removals into allowances would transform the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) from a fiat allowance to a gold standard system, ensuring unchanged net emissions on the path to net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) targets. Meeting such expectations would require a CCB with a clear commitment to a net-zero GHG target, but also with the capacity to manage the market on the path to that target. This requires a strong institutional framework, which could be achieved by integrating the CCB into the European Central Bank (ECB), building on its reputation and capacity. Given the long lead time to set up such an institution, the European Commission should already take the first steps to fulfil the other requirement, namely building up a large carbon removal certificate (CRC) reserve, which would provide the CCB with the credibility to stabilize the market in the future. To fill the CRC reserve, the EU should emulate the US approach by immediately initiating result-based carbon removal procurement as a first key step of a sequential approach to integrated carbon removal into climate policy. This could be achieved by developing a centralized procurement program, supporting existing procurement programs, such as Sweden's or Denmark's, and incentivizing additional EU member states to initiate procurement. An important prerequisite for this is the ability to bank CRCs that are not yet eligible for compliance with near-term EU climate targets and use them in later crediting periods. |
| Abstract: | Eine CO2-Zentralbank (Carbon Central Bank, CCB), die atmosphärische CO2-Entnahme in Zertifikate übersetzt, würde das Emissionshandelssystem der Europäischen Union (EU ETS) langfristig von einem Fiat-Zertifikate-System in ein Goldstandard-System umwandeln und damit unveränderte Nettoemissionen auf dem Weg zu Netto-Null-Treibhausgasemissionen gewährleisten. Um diese Erwartungen zu erfüllen, bedarf es einer starken CCB mit einem klaren Bekenntnis zu einem Netto-Null-Treibhausgas-Ziel. Zudem sollte die CCB mit der Fähigkeit ausgestattet werden, den Markt auf dem Weg zu diesem Ziel zu stabilisieren. Dies erfordert einen starken institutionellen Rahmen, der durch die Eingliederung der CCB in die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) erreicht werden könnte, wobei auf deren Ruf und Kapazität aufgebaut werden könnte. Angesichts der langen Vorlaufzeit für die Einrichtung einer solchen Institution sollte die Europäische Kommission bereits jetzt erste Schritte unternehmen, um die andere Voraussetzung zu erfüllen, nämlich eine Reserve an CO2-Entnahme Zertifikaten aufzubauen, die einer CCB in der Zukunft die Glaubwürdigkeit verleihen würde, den Markt zu stabilisieren. Um die CRC-Reserve aufzubauen, sollte die EU nach dem Vorbild der USA sofort mit der ergebnisorientierten Beschaffung von CO2-Entnahme zu beginnen, der dann den ersten Schritt für eine sequenzielle Integration von CO2-Entnahme in die Klimapolitik bilden würde. Dies könnte durch die Entwicklung eines zentralen Beschaffungsprogramms erreicht werden, das bestehende Programme wie in Schweden oder Dänemark unterstützt und neue Programme in weiteren Mitgliedstaaten anreizt. Eine wichtige Voraussetzung dafür ist die Möglichkeit, CO2-Entnahme-Zertifikate, die noch nicht für die Erfüllung der kurzfristigen EU-Klimaziele in Frage kommen, zu "sparen" und in späteren Anrechnungszeiträumen zu nutzen. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Dioxide Removal, Carbon Central Bank, Carbon Certificate Banking, Net-Zero Emissions Targets, Net-Negative Emissions Targets, CO2-Entnahme, CO2-Zentralbank, CO2-Zertifikatereserve, Netto-Null Emissionsziele, Netto-Negative Emissionsziele |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:295745&r= |
| By: | Loretta J. Mester |
| Abstract: | The FOMC’s job continues to be to assess the implications of economic and financial developments for the outlook and risks around the outlook and, given that assessment, to calibrate monetary policy so that inflation returns sustainably to our 2 percent goal and labor markets remain healthy. The actual path monetary policy takes will depend on how the economy actually evolves; this is the data dependence policymakers often refer to. Our current monetary policy stance puts us in a good position for managing the risks that could be realized. Moving rates down too soon or too quickly without sufficient evidence to give us confidence that inflation is on a sustainable and timely path back to 2 percent would risk undoing the progress we have made on inflation. And with labor markets and economic growth both being very solid, we do not need to take that risk. |
| Keywords: | inflation; monetary policy; economic outlook |
| Date: | 2024–05–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcsp:98251&r= |
| By: | Florentino Felgueroso (coordinador); Rafael Doménech (coordinador); Juan Ramón García; Marcel Jansen; Analía Viola |
| Abstract: | En esta nueva edición del OTMT, analizamos la evolución del mercado de trabajo con la información disponible hasta el primer trimestre de 2024. El informe consta de tres partes. En la primera se hace un balance de la evolución de los principales indicadores agregados (empleo, paro y actividad económica) en el que se destaca el repunte de la creación de empleo y la moderación del crecimiento de los costes laborales, en un contexto de crecimiento de la productividad por hora trabajada. En la segunda parte del informe, analizamos cómo han cambiado las diferencias entre los indicadores de paro y empleo procedentes de los registros administrativos y de la EPA, tras su adaptación al censo de 2021. La contratación indefinida siguió creciendo en 2023, pero se redujeron sustancialmente las conversiones de contratos temporales en indefinidos. Finalmente, en la tercera parte, se pone el foco en el análisis sectorial del déficit crónico de productividad laboral de España en comparación con la UEM, que se agravado en la última década. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdafen:2024-17&r= |
| By: | Michel Aglietta; Camille Macaire |
| Abstract: | Le 14e plan quinquennal de la Chine a inauguré la «double circulation», un changement structurel de l’accumulation intensive de capital (la Chine comme usine du monde) vers un développement dirigé par l’innovation. La part intérieure de la stratégie consiste à développer le marché domestique, en adressant la question du vieillissement démographique. Elle constitue une opportunité de développement, avec la constitution d’un immense marché de consommation. Mais elle exigera aussi une refonte en profondeur des filets de sécurité, qui peine à se matérialiser. La montée en gamme de l’appareil productif, élément central de la stratégie intérieure, se heurte à l’instrumentalisation par les États-Unis de l’industrie des semi-conducteurs dans leur stratégie d’endiguement de la Chine, avec des implications aussi bien civiles que militaires. Enfin, le chemin vers la neutralité carbone en 2060 sera très abrupt, et la feuille de route pour y parvenir est lacunaire et peine à convaincre pour l’instant. La Chine, qui est devenue leader dans l’industrie de la transition énergétique, pourrait toutefois transformer en partie ce défi en opportunité comme relais de croissance. La part internationale de la transformation du régime de croissance consiste à proposer une alternative au système organisé autour des institutions de Bretton Woods pour un nouvel ordre géopolitique, en faisant de la Chine le chef de file des pays émergents. Cet appel trouve un écho favorable auprès de pays qui pour certains manifestent leur volonté de s’émanciper de l’influence américaine, comme on l’a vu à l’occasion du dernier sommet annuel des BRICS. Mais il se heurte à une méfiance toujours forte vis-à-vis des desseins chinois, dans un contexte de résurgence d’un antagonisme sino-américain qui s’est fortement durci et qui paraît irréconciliable. La Chine a une feuille de route ambitieuse. Elle devra faire face à des défis majeurs, démographiques, climatiques et géopolitiques, qui pourraient ralentir la transformation de son modèle de croissance et limiter sa sphère d’influence sur la scène mondiale. |
| Keywords: | China;dual circulation;energy transition;geopolitical fragmentation;BRICS |
| JEL: | E61 F02 F33 F51 O53 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepipb:2023-43&r= |
| By: | Jacinthe Cloutier; Karima Afif; Marie-Claude Roy |
| Abstract: | Several initiatives aimed at reducing food loss and waste (FLW) have been implemented by organizations operating at various levels of the bio-food chain in Quebec. In this report, the authors assess the barriers and facilitators to the deployment of these initiatives, explore their sectoral impacts and identify the most promising initiatives. To meet these objectives, a mixed research methodology was adopted, including a questionnaire-based approach and a qualitative approach based on conducting focus groups with key stakeholders in the bio-food chain. The results of the online questionnaire were triangulated with the results of the focus groups to further analyze the results. Plusieurs initiatives visant la réduction des pertes et gaspillages alimentaires (PGA) ont été mises en œuvre par des organisations opérant à divers niveaux de la chaîne bioalimentaire au Québec. Dans ce rapport, les auteures évaluent les barrières et les facilitateurs du déploiement de ces initiatives, explorent leurs impacts sectoriels et identifient les initiatives les plus prometteuses. Pour répondre à ces objectifs, une méthodologie de recherche mixte a été adoptée incluant une approche basée sur un sondage par questionnaire et une autre basée sur la conduite de groupes de discussion avec les parties prenantes clés de la chaîne bioalimentaire. Les résultats du questionnaire en ligne ont été triangulés avec ceux des groupes de discussion dans le but d’approfondir l’analyse des résultats. |
| Keywords: | Food wastage, Reducing losses, Gaspillage alimentaire, Réduction des pertes |
| Date: | 2024–05–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirpro:2024rp-04&r= |
| By: | United States Department of Agriculture (USDA); Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center (CATIE) |
| Abstract: | Excerpts from the Executive Summary: The Northern Triangle of Central America (NTCA) is composed of three countries, namely El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. Besides having common geographic features, the countries are characterized by increasing migration, and exposure and vulnerability to climate change. Agriculture is a significant sector that employs large numbers of rural population across the three countries. Concurrently, it is also heavily impacted by climate variability and climate change, which compounds the existing vulnerabilities of people employed in agriculture. The report is based on analyzing four main agricultural systems which are key for more than 80 percent of agricultural households in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras: coffee, staple grains, livestock, and vegetables. The objective of this report is to systematize primary data and existing knowledge about climate change impacts and vulnerability of the agricultural sector in the NTCA countries, specifically of coffee, staple grains, livestock and vegetables farmers, with an additional aim of having spatial detail on livelihoods and beneficiaries of interventions for building resilience and contributing to the U.S. Strategy for Addressing the Root Causes of Migration in Central America. To our best knowledge, this report is the only one to use systems and livelihoods approach for an analysis of agricultural vulnerability, resilience, food security and migration, and to additionally provide a comprehensive inquiry that includes spatial specificity. The report links the results of the analysis with the existing, on-the-ground practices and it offers concrete proposals for actions in the NTCA. Based on the field data, USDA and CATIE scientists’ inputs, and complemented with reviews of relevant literature, this report highlights some of the key issues related to agricultural livelihoods, their resilience to the effects of climate change, and interlinkages of agricultural resilience, food security and migration, and it provides concrete suggestions for strategic interventions for increasing agricultural resilience in the NTCA. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Labor and Human Capital, Livestock Production/Industries, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usdami:342472&r= |
| By: | Valérie Mignon; Blaise Gnimassoun; Carl Grekou |
| Abstract: | Premature deindustrialization in most emerging and developing economies is one of the most striking stylized facts of the recent decades. In this paper, we provide solid empirical evidence supporting that the choice of a fixed exchange rate regime accelerates this phenomenon. Relying on a panel of 146 developed, emerging, and developing countries over the 1974-2019 period, we show that fixed exchange rate regimes have had a negative, significant, and robust effect on the size of the manufacturing sector —developing countries being the most affected by the industrial cost of such a regime. Additional gravity model regressions show that the impact of fixed regimes passes through the trade channel. In particular, this regime has kept countries with low relative productivity in a state of structural dependence on imports of manufactured products to the detriment of the emergence of a strong local manufacturing sector. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate regimes; (De)industrialization; Manufacturing; Developing countries; Emerging economies |
| JEL: | E42 F43 F45 F6 O14 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2024-18&r= |
| By: | Patrick T. Harker |
| Abstract: | In remarks at the Research and Practice 2024 Anchor Economy Conference, Philadelphia Fed President and CEO Patrick T. Harker offered an overview of the Philadelphia Fed’s “groundbreaking” Anchor Economy Initiative. The initiative aims to provide data on how hospitals and higher education institutions impact their local economies. Harker spoke about the data available in the Anchor Economy Dashboard, which for the first time, provides metrics on how dependent a given region is on anchor institutions. The dashboard and subsequent research, Harker said, are “powerful tools that stakeholders in each region can have at their disposal to put challenges in perspective and show a path for collaboration that can strengthen long-term economic prospects.” |
| Date: | 2024–05–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpsp:98246&r= |
| By: | Joaquin Vespignani; Russell Smyth |
| Abstract: | This paper employs insights from earth science on the financial risk of project developments to present an economic theory of critical minerals. Our theory posits that back-ended critical mineral projects that have unaddressed technical and nontechnical barriers, such as those involving lithium and cobalt, exhibit an additional risk for investors which we term the “back-ended risk premium†. We show that the back-ended risk premium increases the cost of capital and, therefore, has the potential to reduce investment in the sector. We posit that the back-ended risk premium may also reduce the gains in productivity expected from artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in the mining sector. Progress in AI may, however, lessen the back-ended risk premium itself through shortening the duration of mining projects and the required rate of investment through reducing the associated risk. We conclude that the best way to reduce the costs associated with energy transition is for governments to invest heavily in AI mining technologies and research. |
| Keywords: | critical minerals, artificial Intelligence, risk premium |
| JEL: | Q02 Q40 Q50 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2024-30&r= |
| By: | Lonjezo Sithole |
| Abstract: | I propose a locally robust semiparametric framework for estimating causal effects using the popular examiner IV design, in the presence of many examiners and possibly many covariates relative to the sample size. The key ingredient of this approach is an orthogonal moment function that is robust to biases and local misspecification from the first step estimation of the examiner IV. I derive the orthogonal moment function and show that it delivers multiple robustness where the outcome model or at least one of the first step components is misspecified but the estimating equation remains valid. The proposed framework not only allows for estimation of the examiner IV in the presence of many examiners and many covariates relative to sample size, using a wide range of nonparametric and machine learning techniques including LASSO, Dantzig, neural networks and random forests, but also delivers root-n consistent estimation of the parameter of interest under mild assumptions. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.19144&r= |
| By: | Tian Tian; Jiahao Deng |
| Abstract: | This pioneering research introduces a novel approach for decision-makers in the heavy machinery industry, specifically focusing on production management. The study integrates machine learning techniques like Ridge Regression, Markov chain analysis, and radar charts to optimize North American Crawler Cranes market production processes. Ridge Regression enables growth pattern identification and performance assessment, facilitating comparisons and addressing industry challenges. Markov chain analysis evaluates risk factors, aiding in informed decision-making and risk management. Radar charts simulate benchmark product designs, enabling data-driven decisions for production optimization. This interdisciplinary approach equips decision-makers with transformative insights, enhancing competitiveness in the heavy machinery industry and beyond. By leveraging these techniques, companies can revolutionize their production management strategies, driving success in diverse markets. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2405.01913&r= |
| By: | Susan Athey; Emil Palikot |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the labor market value of credentials obtained from Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) and shared on business networking platforms. We conducted a randomized experiment involving more than 800, 000 learners, primarily from developing countries and without college degrees, who completed technology or business-related courses on the Coursera platform between September 2022 and March 2023. The intervention targeted learners who had recently completed their courses, encouraging them to share their credentials and simplifying the sharing process. One year after the intervention, we collected data from LinkedIn profiles of approximately 40, 000 experimental subjects. We find that the intervention leads to an increase of 17 percentage points for credential sharing. Further, learners in the treatment group were 6\% more likely to report new employment within a year, with an 8\% increase in jobs related to their certificates. This effect was more pronounced among LinkedIn users with lower baseline employability. Across the entire sample, the treated group received a higher number of certificate views, indicating an increased interest in their profiles. These results suggest that facilitating credential sharing and reminding learners of the value of skill signaling can yield significant gains. When the experiment is viewed as an encouragement design for credential sharing, we can estimate the local average treatment effect (LATE) of credential sharing (that is, the impact of credential sharing on the workers induced to share by the intervention) for the outcome of getting a job. The LATE estimates are imprecise but large in magnitude; they suggest that credential sharing more than doubles the baseline probability of getting a new job in scope for the credential. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2405.00247&r= |
| By: | Malburg-Graf, Barbara; Zademach, Hans-Martin; Dornbach, Falk; Dudek, Simon; Graef, Marie; Jerjen, Damian; Kießling, Nadine; Kufeld, Walter; Miosga, Manfred; Neubauer, Petra; Pütz, Marco; Ritzinger, Anne; Saller, Raymond; Stark, Alexander; Warner, Barbara |
| Abstract: | Das vorliegende Positionspapier fasst Diskussionsergebnisse und Anregungen der gemeinsamen Arbeitsgruppe "Große Transformation und nachhaltige Raumentwicklung machen: Impulse zur Umsetzung eines komplexen Konzepts in der regionalen und kommunalen Praxis" der Landesarbeitsgemeinschaften Baden-Württemberg und Bayern für die Praxis der Raumplanung und Raumentwicklung zusammen. Es zielt darauf ab, die Diskrepanz zwischen dem Anspruch an eine Raumentwicklung, die vom Gedanken einer starken Nachhaltigkeit geleitet und auf das Ziel der großen Transformation im Sinne des WBGU (2011) orientiert ist, und einer oftmals ernüchternden Wirklichkeit der Planungspraxis zu verringern. Dazu zeigt das Papier konkrete Möglichkeiten auf, mit denen diese Implementierungslücke geschlossen werden kann. Es richtet sich vor allem an Vertreterinnen und Vertreter in Raumentwicklung, Raumplanung und Raumordnungspolitik, die sich mit zukunftsfähigen Planungsparadigmen auseinandersetzen und umsetzbare Lösungen suchen. |
| Abstract: | This position paper summarises the results and suggestions of the joint working group 'Making great transformation and sustainable spatial development a reality: Impulses for implementing a complex concept in regional and municipal practice' of the Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria state working groups for the practice of spatial planning and development. It aims to reduce the discrepancy between the demand for spatial development that is guided by the idea of strong sustainability and orientated towards the goal of the great transformation as defined by the WBGU (2011) and the often sobering reality of planning practice. To this end, the paper identifies specific ways in which this implementation gap can be closed. It is primarily aimed at representatives in spatial development, spatial planning and spatial planning policy who are concerned with sustainable planning paradigms and are looking for realisable solutions. |
| Keywords: | Große Transformation, Nachhaltige Raumentwicklung, Planungs- und Raumentwicklungspraxis, Great Transformation, Sustainable Spatial Development, Planning and Spatial Development Practice |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:arlpos:295734&r= |
| By: | Dalida Kadyrzhanova; Ander Pérez-Orive; Eliezer Singer |
| Abstract: | The total volume of outstanding debt issued by U.S. nonfinancial firms relative to GDP has increased by about 8 percentage points in the past decade. While a growing volume of debt was largely viewed as benign in the low interest rate environment of the 2010s, the rapid increase in both short- and long-term rates since early 2022 has raised concerns about the debt-servicing capacity of the corporate sector. |
| Date: | 2024–05–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2024-05-09&r= |
| By: | Juan Pablo Chauvin; Clemence Tricaud |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new evidence on why men and women leaders make different choices. We first use a simple political agency model to illustrate how voters' gender bias can lead reelection-seeking female politicians to undertake different policies. We then test the model's predictions by exploring leaders’ responses to COVID-19. Assuming that voters expect policies to be less effective if decided by women, the model predicts that female politicians undertake less containment effort than male politicians when voters perceive the threat as low, while the opposite is true when voters perceive it as serious. Exploiting Brazilian close elections, we find that, early in the pandemic, female mayors were less likely to close non-essential businesses and female-led municipalities experienced more deaths per capita, while the reverse was true later on, once the health consequences materialized. These results are exclusively driven by mayors facing reelection and stronger in municipalities with greater gender discrimination. |
| JEL: | D72 H11 J16 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32410&r= |
| By: | Pardey, Philip G.; Alston, Julian M. |
| Abstract: | Has the golden age of U.S. agricultural productivity growth ended? We analyze the detailed patterns of productivity growth spanning a century of profound changes in American agriculture. We document a substantial slowing of U.S. farm productivity growth, following a late mid-century surge—20 years after the surge and slowdown in U.S. industrial productivity growth. We posit and empirically probe three related explanations for this farm productivity surge-slowdown: the time path of agricultural R&D-driven knowledge stocks; a big wave of technological progress associated with great clusters of inventions; and dynamic aspects of the structural transformation of agriculture, largely completed by 1980. |
| Keywords: | Productivity Analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2024–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:umaesp:342428&r= |
| By: | Aysu Celgin; Mert Gokcu |
| Abstract: | [TR] Ýstanbul Sanayi Odasi tarafindan yayimlanan Turkiye Ýmalat Satin Alma Yoneticileri Endeksi (PMI) ve Mustakil Sanayici ve Ýsadamlari Dernegi tarafindan aciklanan Satin Alma Mudurleri Endeksi (SAMEKS), iktisadi faaliyetin seyri hakkinda bilgi edinmek amaciyla takip edilen onemli anket gostergelerindendir. Bu iki onemli endeksin tarihsel olarak uyumlu hareket etmekle beraber, son yillarda daha belirgin olmak uzere, bazi donemlerde birbirlerinden ayristiklari gorulmektedir. Bu calismada, soz konusu ayrismanin kaynaklari farkli basliklar altinda incelendikten sonra her iki endeksin imalat sanayi uretimiyle olan iliskisi esik deger analizi ile incelenmektedir. Bu cercevede, PMI icin sabit esik degerin 50’nin altinda (47, 9) oldugu ve SAMEKS sanayi endeksi ile yapilan analizde ise istatistiki olarak anlamli katsayilar elde edilemedigi gozlenmistir. Buna ek olarak, PMI gostergesinin imalat sanayi ile iliskisi yorumlanirken, endeksin seviyesinin yaninda degisiminin de kritik oldugu tespit edilmistir. Ozetle, analiz sonuclari, manset degerin yaninda anket göstergelerine butuncul bakis acisinin da onemli oldugunu ima etmektedir. [EN] Türkiye Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) published by Istanbul Chamber of Industry and Purchasing Managers’ Index (SAMEKS) released by Independent Industrialists’ and Businessmen's Association are among the important survey indicators which are monitored in order to obtain information about the course of economic activity. Although these two important indices have moved in tandem historically, it is observed that they have diverged from each other in some periods, more visibly in recent years. In this study, after examining the sources of this divergence under different headings, the relationship of both of these indices with the manufacturing industry production is examined with threshold value analysis. Accordingly, it is observed that the fixed threshold value for PMI is below 50 (47.9), and no statistically significant coefficients could be obtained in the analysis conducted by SAMEKS industry index. In addition, it has been detected that the change of the index as well as its level is critical when interpreting the relation between PMI indicator and the manufacturing industry. In sum, the analysis results imply that a holistic view of survey indicators is important as well as headline value. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:2407&r= |
| By: | Sugat Chaturvedi (Ahmedabad University); Kanika Mahajan (Ashoka University); Zahra Siddique (University of Bristol) |
| Abstract: | We study the demand for skills by using text analysis methods on job descriptions in a large volume of ads posted on an online Indian job portal. We make use of domain-specific unlabeled data to obtain word vector representations (i.e., word embeddings) and discuss how these can be leveraged for labor market research. We start by carrying out a data-driven categorization of required skill words and construct gender associations of different skill categories using word embeddings. Next, we examine how different required skill categories correlate with log posted wages as well as explore how skills demand varies with firm size. We find that female skills are associated with lower posted wages, potentially contributing to observed gender wage gaps. We also find that large firms require a more extensive range of skills, implying that complementarity between female and male skills is greater among these firms. |
| Keywords: | Gender; Machine learning; online job ads; Skills demand; Text analysis |
| Date: | 2023–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ash:wpaper:107&r= |
| By: | NECHIFOR Victor (European Commission - JRC); FERRARI Emanuele (European Commission - JRC); NDONG NTAH Marcellin; NANDELENGA Martin; YALEW Amsalu Woldie |
| Abstract: | The Kenyan economy was significantly affected by the global supply chain disruptions stemming from the Russian invasion. The macroeconomic impacts were largely driven by global fertilizer and fossil fuel price increases. Rural households were nevertheless affected by raising food prices, notably those of vegetable oils. Kenyan Government intervention through fossil fuel subsidies contributed to an ease of the cost of living crisis by reducing prices, but came at a considerable fiscal cost. Fertilizer subsidies proved to enhance food security by boosting agricultural output with positive fiscal secondary effects. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc136628&r= |
| By: | Kenny, Sean |
| Abstract: | This paper constructs annual GDP estimates for Ireland (1924-47) to join the first complete official aggregates. The new series is deployed to revisit Ireland's economic performance in the post-independence decades. Ireland's economy grew at 1.5 per cent per annum and average living standards improved by 40 per cent. The bulk of this was due to labour productivity improvements stemming from workers moving out of agriculture. Starting in 1924 captures the civil war recovery and paints a more positive picture of the 1920s, while the traditional narrative of a "mild" Great Depression is upheld. The 1930s recovery was aided by strong contributions from services and industry, while the economy contracted by 7 per cent during the early "Emergency". Though supporting O'Rourke's view that Irish growth was not unique against European peers, the new data provide evidence of stronger convergence against UK regions. Industry contributed most to growth during the period, growing at 3.6 per cent per annum. The equivalent rate for services was 1.3 per cent, though it contributed substantially during recovery periods. Agricultural output hardly changed due to its post-war contraction. This paper joins a growing number of studies that suggest that Ireland was poorer at independence than previously believed. |
| Keywords: | Historical National Accounts, interwar period, Ireland, GDP, comparative growth, regional GDP, productivity |
| JEL: | N1 N14 O4 O47 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:295737&r= |
| By: | Richard Bruns |
| Abstract: | This is an evaluation of "Accelerating Vaccine Innovation for Emerging Infectious Diseases via Parallel Discovery". [Extract from the evaluator's summary follows.] This is an advance on the literature, a promising foundation for future research. In its current form I do not find it convincing as a model of the future of vaccine development, and I am very skeptical of its repeated claims that the portfolio will have a 66% chance of preventing a major 'Disease X' pandemic, because the paper does not provide enough information about how it simulates the development of these vaccines for a previously unknown pathogen. However, it provides some insight in its current form (it shows that challenge trials, while potentially helpful, are not sufficient to solve the problem), and there are several minor extensions that could make it much more useful. |
| Date: | 2024–03–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bjn:evalua:accelvax-e1&r= |
| By: | Rajashri Chakrabarti; Dan Garcia; Maxim L. Pinkovskiy |
| Abstract: | Veterans constitute a significant segment of the male labor force, and understanding labor market disparities between veterans and non‑veterans is an important component of studying disparities in the economy as a whole. In a previous Liberty Street Economics post, we have shown that even relative to a group of comparable non-veterans, veterans have lower employment and labor force participation rates. One year later, we see that veterans continue to experience lower labor market attachment and the employment gap has widened, though the earnings gap has closed. |
| Keywords: | veterans; labor force participation; employment; inequality |
| JEL: | J2 J3 |
| Date: | 2024–05–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:98287&r= |
| By: | Haufe, Luise |
| Abstract: | Peri-urbanisation has been conceptualised during the recent years. In this research work, peri-urbanisation is viewed through the lens of water body conversion from rural to eventually urban use. Underlying power relations and networks are examined, using an assemblage thinking approach combined with the framework of Situated (Urban) Political Ecology on a case study in peri-urban Chennai, Tamil Nadu, South India. Chennai experiences rapid expansion and its peri-urban zone tells numerous stories of transformation. The underlying rural landscape was defined by the eri (or tank) system and has evolved as a cultural landscape within the past centuries. An eri (Tamil: lake, reservoir) is a semi-natural water body, which catches water during monsoon to retain and release it during the dry season. With the help of eris, agriculture was enabled throughout the year by creating a balance between wet and dry seasons. Eris are connected to each other and form a system of water bodies, which increases the efficiency of water retention as the capacities of the entire system can be utilised through spillover from one eri to another. Within the current context of urbanisation however, eris have to change their meaning to fit into the new setting. This research is focussed on how eris in peri-urban Chennai are being transformed from rural irrigation reservoirs to urban water bodies - a transformation with very diverse outcomes, ranging from modern drinking water reservoirs to decaying water bodies used as landfills. Moreover, the eri defines its surroundings in the traditional cultural landscape, by creating two types of land: irrigated farmland under individual ownership and common land. Peri-urbanisation of eris usually includes their disconnection from their immediate surroundings on the physical, social and administrative level. The characteristics of the two traditional land types and their connection to the eri shape the peri-urbanisation process in regard to legal security, pace of change, land value, environmental and social impact. This results in urban areas of different characteristics, which are based on their former rural land type. The eri as defining landscape feature can therefore be seen as peri-urban development nucleus. Hence, the term "urban eri" is established to define a water body, which has undergone disconnection from its earlier rural surroundings to be reintegrated into its later urban context, thus (re)shaping access mechanisms and the future urban form. |
| Date: | 2024–05–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:pgkn5&r= |
| By: | Chad P. Bown (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | Out of fear about its economic security, the European Union is transitioning to a new form of international economic and policy engagement. This paper explores some of the major trade issues surrounding the bloc's economic security, the role of trade and industrial policies in achieving its objectives, and some of the economic costs of doing so. It begins by explaining why economic security is suddenly playing such a prominent role and providing early evidence to motivate these government interventions. It then turns to a case study--new policies associated with China's exports of electric vehicles and graphite--that highlights the difficult choices and practical challenges the European Union faces in tailoring policy to address concerns over economic security. The paper then introduces the domestic policy instruments that the European Union, its member states, and other governments are pursuing to address economic security, including stockpiling and inventory management, investment or production subsidies, tariffs, export controls, and regulations on foreign investment, as well as the scope for selective international cooperation over such policy instruments. The paper concludes with some caveats about abandoning interdependence and lessons from history. |
| Keywords: | Economic security, supply chains, industrial policy, trade policy, tariffs, subsidies, export controls |
| JEL: | F13 L52 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp24-2&r= |
| By: | Christine L. Dobridge; Joanne W. Hsu; Mike Zabek |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effects of personal income tax decreases on financial well-being, including qualitative subjective assessments and quantitative measures. A plausibly causal design shows that tax decreases in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act made survey respondents more likely to say they were "living comfortably" financially, with null effects at lower levels of subjective financial well-being. Estimates from a similar design using credit bureau data show that people who had larger tax decreases were modestly more likely to open new accounts, and more likely to have higher consumer credit balances. Tax decreases had effects on credit scores that are indistinguishable from zero. Results suggest that larger tax decreases improve financial well-being in ways not fully proxied by typical administrative data. |
| Keywords: | Taxes; Subjective well-being; Household finances; Credit; Financial well-being |
| JEL: | H24 G50 I31 |
| Date: | 2024–05–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-29&r= |
| By: | Bahnsen, Lewe |
| Abstract: | Die Studie enthält unsere aktuellen Vorausberechnungen des Beitragssatzes in der SPV. Die Untersuchung offenbart die Zunahme des finanziellen Drucks und damit den Reformbedarf in der SPV, selbst bei konservativen Annahmen der zukünftigen Einnahmen- und Ausgabenentwicklung. Die wichtigsten Ergebnisse sind: In den letzten zwanzig Jahren stiegen die Ausgaben in der SPV um durchschnittlich 5, 7 Prozent, während sich die Einnahmen um 2 Prozent erhöhten. Dies führt nach unseren Berechnungen bis ins Jahr 2040 zu einer mehr als Verdopplung des heutigen SPV-Beitragssatzes. Die zukünftige Beitragssatzentwicklung ist in hohem Maße von der Ausgabenentwicklung in der Pflegeversicherung abhängig. Die mehrfache Erhöhung der Leistungsansprüche durch den Gesetzgeber hat die Finanzierungslage zusätzlich zur demografischen Situation verschärft. So führten die Pflegestärkungsgesetze I und II bereits im Einführungsjahr zu sehr hohen Ausgabensteigerungen von 13, 4 Prozent (2015) bzw. 22, 9 Prozent (2017) und auch in den Folgejahren zu einem höheren Ausgabenniveau. Das erforderliche Finanzvolumen für die Begrenzung des Eigenanteils an den pflegebedingten Aufwendungen (§ 43c SGB XI) wurde von der Bundesregierung unterschätzt. Sie ging für das Jahr 2022 von Mehrausgaben von 2, 75 Mrd. € aus. Tatsächlich dürften die Ausgaben bei 3, 6 Mrd. € gelegen haben. Für 2024 sind laut den WIP-Berechnungen voraussichtlich sogar Ausgaben in Höhe von 5, 4 Mrd. € zu erwarten. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wipkan:295235&r= |
| By: | Tony Addison; Alan R. Roe |
| Abstract: | Companies in the oil, gas, and mining sectors face ever intensifying scrutiny over their environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices and impacts: from civil society but also from investment funds and other stakeholders with ESG mandates. Companies with good practices—and the paper documents significant progress since 2000—can deliver substantial benefits to host economies: both local and national. The paper suggests further ways in which they could enhance their impacts in partnerships with government. |
| Keywords: | Africa, Extractive industries, Mining, Natural gas, Oil |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2024-34&r= |
| By: | Forero Buitrago, Juan Camilo (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | El propósito de este trabajo de investigación es identificar el efecto y las relaciones que pueden ocurrir sobre la inflación, el crecimiento económico y el consumo de combustibles fósiles (gasolina y diésel), a través del mecanismo de estabilización de precios de los combustibles que tiene Colombia, el Fondo de Estabilización de Precios de los Combustibles (FEPC). Se estima un modelo autorregresivo vectorial estructural (SVAR, por sus siglas en inglés) para cada combustible fósil utilizando datos desde marzo de 2010 hasta agosto de 2023. En particular, a lo largo de este documento será posible resaltar el efecto positivo que el subsidio implícito entregado a través del FEPC ha tenido sobre el poder adquisitivo de los hogares y el crecimiento económico del país, así como la diferencia de estos efectos entre los subsidios implícitos para gasolina y diésel. Simultáneamente, este estudio se cuantifica el impacto de este subsidio en el consumo de combustibles fósiles, proporcionando un análisis integral de los efectos que ejerce. |
| Keywords: | precios de los combustibles; inflación; crecimiento económico; consumo de combustible; SVAR |
| JEL: | C32 E31 O40 Q43 |
| Date: | 2024–05–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021141&r= |
| By: | Humphreys, Sheila |
| Keywords: | Engineering, 150w, UCB, Women in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science |
| Date: | 2024–05–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:cshedu:qt3mn8m639&r= |
| By: | Feld, Immanuel (University of Warwick); Fetzer, Thiemo (University of Warwick & Bonn and affiliated with CEPR, CAGE, NIESR, ECONtribute, Grantham Institute) |
| Abstract: | Climate action requires significant public- and private sector investment to achieve meaningful reductions in carbon emissions. This paper documents that large-scale austerity, coupled with barriers to flows of data and a lack of (digital) skills in (local) government, may have been a significant barrier to delivering climate action in the form of retrofitting. Decomposing heterogeneity in estimated treatment effects of a large-scale energy efficiency savings program that was rolled out through a regression discontinuity design in the early 2010s, we find that both the extent of austerity-induced local budget cuts and poor digital connectivity – may be responsible for up to 30% fewer retrofit installations that counterfactually would have taken place had it not been for austerity |
| Keywords: | state capacity, austerity, skills, climate action, public economics JEL Classification: Q54, Q58, H76, C21, O33, R11, H54 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:708&r= |
| By: | Marion POUZOULET (Sciences Po Bordeaux / France ESS Forum International, Paris (France)) |
| Abstract: | Au cours de la dernière décennie, les agences des Nations Unies (ONU) ont développé diverses initiatives en faveur de la promotion de l'économie sociale et solidaire (ESS) : la création de l'UNTFSSE en 2013, l'adoption d'une résolution à la Conférence internationale du travail en juin 2022, l'Académie annuelle de l'OIT sur l'ESS, etc. Les réseaux transnationaux de l'ESS, qui tentent toujours de légitimer l'ESS au niveau international, citent souvent ces activités comme un soutien institutionnel fort à l'ESS. Cependant, cette affirmation soulève des questions quant à la place réelle des préoccupations de l'ESS dans le système des Nations Unies. L'hypothèse ici est que, malgré les grandes annonces, l'ESS (et les quelques agents qui la promeuvent) occupe une position marginale au sein des agences de l'ONU. Basé sur une série d'entretiens semi-directifs avec des agents de l'ONU, ce papier permet de comprendre pourquoi, malgré l'absence d'une ligne directrice générale, l'ESS a fait son chemin dans l'agenda de plusieurs agences de l'ONU. L'analyse suppose qu'avant d'être un intérêt institutionnel, cette appétence pour l'ESS est le résultat de l'engagement de plusieurs agents de l'ONU. L'objectif sous-jacent est également de comprendre si l'émergence de l'ESS au sein des agences de l'ONU a produit des "innovations" et des "changements" dans les institutions. L'ensemble de ce travail de recherche est facilité par la position de l'autrice en tant que doctorante bénéficiant d'une convention CIFRE. Cette spécificité française lui permet, parallèlement à ses activités de recherche, d'être chargée de mission pour ESS Forum International, l'un des principaux réseaux d'acteurs de l'ESS à l'échelle internationale. Cette position lui facilite donc l'accès au terrain et aux agents interviewés, qu'elle rencontre régulièrement dans le cadre de ses activités salariées. Outre les entretiens réalisés, cette communication s'appuie donc sur une observation participante et une analyse de documents d'archives. |
| Keywords: | Nations Unies, ESS, agenda international, organisations internationales, trajectoire individuelle |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crc:wpaper:2302&r= |
| By: | Proeger, Till; Meub, Lukas; Alhusen, Harm |
| Abstract: | Die Überlegungen zum Einsatz von künstlicher Intelligenz (KI) in der Handwerksorganisation nehmen mit der Verbreitung praktischer Anwendungen zu. Dabei erfolgt eine schrittweise Konkretisierung von KI-Lösungen für die verschiedenen Aufgabenbereiche der Handwerksorganisation. Eine vielfältig und leicht nutzbare Anwendung ist die generative KI ChatGPT. Auf Basis von Workshopergebnissen wird in dieser Studie für die handwerkliche Betriebsberatung die Nutzung von ChatGPT skizziert. Es werden dafür drei zweckmäßige Anwendungsbereiche identifiziert: (1) Organisation der Betriebsberatung, (2) die direkte Anwendung in der Betriebsberatung sowie (3) die Unterstützung einer Eigenanwendung durch die Betriebe. Innerhalb dieser Anwendungsbereiche werden insgesamt 19 Prozesse für die Nutzung von ChatGPT beschrieben, wobei eine Zeitersparnis und/oder zusätzliche Informationen für die verantwortlichen Personen erzielt werden. 1. Im Bereich der Organisation der Betriebsberatung betrifft dies die Prozesse: Beratungsberichte, Stellungnahmen, Erstinformation, Beratungsinhalte, Veranstaltungsplanung, Konjunkturberichte, Öffentlichkeitsarbeit, Übersetzung, Wettbewerbe und Förderanträge sowie Onboarding innerhalb der Kammer. 2. Im Bereich der Durchführung der Betriebsberatung: Tutoren-Funktion, Einzelfallrecherche, Kreative Fragen, Recherche nach der Beratung, Checklisten sowie Illustrationen. 3. Im Bereich der Eigenanwendung der Betriebe: Erstinformation, Vorbereitung auf Beratungsgespräche, Informationen zu Spezialthemen. Im Folgenden werden diese Prozesse beschrieben und beispielhafte Prompts entwickelt, mit denen die Umsetzung der jeweiligen Prozesse innerhalb von ChatGPT erfolgen kann. Der Anhang gibt zudem eine detaillierte Übersicht über die einzelnen Prozesse, ausführliche Beispiele für Prompts und die korrespondierenden Outputs, um so einen praktischen Einstieg in die Nutzung von ChatGPT in der Betriebsberatung zu geben. Auf diese Weise wird ein inhaltlicher Überblick bereitgestellt und ein praktischer Einstieg in die ChatGPT-Nutzung in der Betriebsberatung ermöglicht. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifhfob:295236&r= |
| By: | Duff, Cameron; Johnson, Guy; Blunden, Hazel; Horton, Ella; Nygaard, Andi |
| Abstract: | This research examines the organisational and resource implications of transitioning from ‘output-based’ to ‘outcomes-based’ funding arrangements for providing social housing in Australia. It explores relevant housing policy contexts, reviewing opportunities and key policy barriers for this reform goal. With outcomes-based service models, organisational funding arrangements are tied to specific service outcomes (such as better health or employment outcomes) rather than discrete service volumes (such as number of clients served). To work properly, outcomes-based funding requires ongoing accurate measurements and evaluation of the effectiveness of welfare interventions. While there is widespread agreement among stakeholders—policy makers, service providers and consumers—that a shift from an output-based to an outcome-oriented housing assistance and support system makes sense, there are concerns about the best way to measure outcomes that take into account the complex differences among social housing tenants, and the recognition that when outcome measurement is done poorly, it can have a damaging impact on both service users and service providers. The research strongly recommends government do more to standardise outcomes measures. There are broader national health and social care services datasets that could be used to drive this standardisation of performance benchmarks and measures, such as the existing data analytics and evaluation capabilities of organisations like the Australian Bureau of Statistics or the Australian Institute for Health and Welfare. In addition, establishing a National Housing Outcomes Clearinghouse could support the development of standardised outcomes tools, methods and approaches, clarifying what outcomes agencies are responsible for, while also supporting the dissemination of key outcomes findings to drive service improvements across the sector. |
| Date: | 2024–05–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:7jdgm&r= |
| By: | Gorgens, Tue (Australian National University); Meng, Xin (Australian National University); Zhao, Guochang (Southwest University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu) |
| Abstract: | Fifty years ago, China sent more than 16 million urban youths aged 16–19 to rural villages to work and they spent between 1 and 10 years there. This is known as the 'sent-down youth' (SDY) program. This paper examines how this internal migration impacted rural economic development in the regions that received a larger number of SDY per capita relative to regions that received less. We find a sizeable and persistent impact of the SDY program on real per capita GDP and nighttime light in the years after the program ended. Surprisingly, although our results confirm that the SDY increased education level of relevant cohorts, the variation in the education level of these cohorts does not seem to contribute directly to rural GDP and nighttime lights. We provide suggestive evidence regarding mechanisms through which the SDY influenced rural economic development. |
| Keywords: | economic development, migration, sent-down youth, China |
| JEL: | O18 J61 R23 N00 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16951&r= |
| By: | Philip N. Jefferson |
| Date: | 2024–05–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgsq:98260&r= |
| By: | Prachi Mishra; Alvaro Ortiz; Antonio Spilimbergo; Tomasa Rodrigo; Sirenia Vázquez |
| Abstract: | Joint project with the IMF to analyze the evolution of e-commerce in Spain during and after Covid. The secular positive trend in e-commerce is well alive. The pandemic\'s boost was temporary with a moderating trend once the restrictions were lifted. Significant heterogeneity by individuals and categories of consumption Joint project with the IMF to analyze the evolution of e-commerce in Spain during and after Covid. The secular positive trend in e-commerce is well alive. The pandemic\'s boost was temporary with a moderating trend once the restrictions were lifted. Significant heterogeneity by individuals and categories of consumption |
| Keywords: | Big Data, Big Data, Digital consumption, Consumo digital, Spain, España, Analysis with Big Data, Análisis con Big Data, Consumption, Consumo, Digital Economy, Economía Digital, Working Paper, Documento de Trabajo |
| JEL: | E00 L81 C55 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bbv:wpaper:2408&r= |
| By: | Guido Friebel (Goethe University of Frankfurt and CEPR and IZA); Matthias Heinz (University of Cologne and CEPR and Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods); Mitchell Hoffman (UC Santa Barbara and University of Toronto and NBER and CEPR and IZA); Tobias Kretschmer (LMU Munich and CEPR); Nick Zubanov (University of Konstanz and IZA) |
| Abstract: | In a large German bakery chain, many workers report negative perceptions of monitoring via checklists. We survey workers and managers about the value and time costs to all in-store checklists, leading the firm to randomly remove two of the most perceivedly time-consuming and low-value checklists in half of stores. Sales increase and store manager attrition substantially decreases, and this occurs without a rise in measurable workplace problems. Before random assignment, regional managers predict whether the treatment would be effective for each store they oversee. Ex post, beneficial effects of checklist removal are fully concentrated in stores where regional managers predict the treatment will be effective, reflecting substantial heterogeneity in returns that is well-understood by these upper managers. Effects of checklist removal do not appear to come from workers having more time for production, but rather due to improvements in employee trust and commitment. Following the RCT, the firm implemented firmwide reductions in monitoring, eliminating a checklist regarded as demeaning, but keeping a checklist that helps coordinate production. |
| Keywords: | Monitoring; checklists; respect; time use |
| JEL: | M5 C93 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:304&r= |
| By: | Kotte, Volker (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Stöckmann, Andrea (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "Dieser Bericht betrachtet den Strukturwandel nach Berufen und beruflichen Anforderungsniveaus für Schleswig-Holstein. Dabei wird der Zeitraum 1999 bis 2019 mit den zu erwartenden Entwicklungen aus Entwicklungen aus den Qualifikations- und Berufsprojektionen (QuBe) des IAB für 2020 bis 2040 verglichen. In Zukunft sind geringere Änderungsraten bei Berufen und Anforderungsniveaus zu erwarten als in der Vergangenheit. Damit ändert der berufliche Strukturwandel sein Gesicht. Viele Veränderungsprozesse werden sich in die Berufe verlagern. Statt des personellen Auf- und Abbaus von Branchen oder Berufen werden künftig die einzelnen Tätigkeiten und Anforderungsniveaus im Mittelpunkt stehen. Dieser Wandel stellt Arbeitnehmer vor veränderte Herausforderungen. Die Bedeutung von Bildung und Qualifizierung wird durch einen Ausblick auf die Megatrends Digitalisierung und Dekarbonisierung unterstrichen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Schleswig-Holstein ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Dekarbonisierung ; Auswirkungen ; Berufsgruppe ; Berufsstrukturwandel ; Bundesländer ; IAB-Beschäftigtenhistorik ; Anforderungsprofil ; Qualifikationsniveau ; regionaler Vergleich ; BIBB/IAB-Qualifikations- und Berufsfeldprojektionen ; BIBB/IAB-Qualifikations- und Berufsfeldprojektionen ; Arbeitskräftenachfrage ; Tätigkeitswandel ; technischer Wandel ; Arbeitsmarktprognose ; 1999-2040 |
| Date: | 2024–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabrno:202401&r= |
| By: | Nathaniel T. Wilcox |
| Abstract: | Experimental and behavioral economists, as well as psychologists, commonly assume conditional independence of choices when constructing likelihood functions for structural estimation of choice functions. I test this assumption using data from a new experiment designed for this purpose. Within the limits of the experiment’s identifying restriction and designed power to detect deviations from conditional independence, conditional independence is not rejected. In naturally occurring data, concerns about violations of conditional independence are certainly proper and well-taken (for wellknown reasons). However, when an experimenter employs the particular experimental mechanisms and designs used here, the findings suggest that conditional independence is an acceptable assumption for analyzing data so generated. Key Words: Alternation, Conditional Independence, Choice Under Risk, Discrete Choice, Persistence, Random Problem Selection |
| JEL: | C22 C25 C91 D81 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apl:wpaper:24-15&r= |
| By: | Ge, S.; Li, S.; Linton, O. B.; Liu, W.; Su, W. |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we propose two novel frameworks to incorporate auxiliary information about connectivity among entities (i.e., network information) into the estimation of large covariance matrices. The current literature either completely ignores this kind of network information (e.g., thresholding and shrinkage) or utilizes some simple network structure under very restrictive settings (e.g., banding). In the era of big data, we can easily get access to auxiliary information about the complex connectivity structure among entities. Depending on the features of the auxiliary network information at hand and the structure of the covariance matrix, we provide two different frameworks correspondingly —the Network Guided Thresholding and the Network Guided Banding. We show that both Network Guided estimators have optimal convergence rates over a larger class of sparse covariance matrix. Simulation studies demonstrate that they generally outperform other pure statistical methods, especially when the true covariance matrix is sparse, and the auxiliary network contains genuine information. Empirically, we apply our method to the estimation of the covariance matrix with the help of many financial linkage data of asset returns to attain the global minimum variance (GMV) portfolio. |
| Keywords: | Banding, Big Data, Large Covariance Matrix, Network, Thresholding |
| JEL: | C13 C58 G11 |
| Date: | 2024–05–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camjip:2416&r= |
| By: | António Afonso; José Carlos Coelho |
| Abstract: | We assess the drivers of fiscal sustainability in 20 OECD economies between 1950 and 2019. We find stable long-term relationships between government revenues and expenditures as well as between the primary budget balance and past public debt ratio for the full panel. Performing an expanding window analysis, we conclude that the differential between the long-term real interest rate and the real GDP growth rate (r-g) plays a crucial role in fiscal sustainability, as well as the existence of fiscal rules in terms of the budget balance, and also the output gap. The effects of inflation, external accounts balance and fiscal rules on sustainability coefficients à la Hakkio and Rush (1991) and Bohn (1998) are heterogenous. Furthermore, before the global financial crisis of 2008, the effects of the (r-g) differential were particularly strong, and depended on its sign as well as on past debt-to-GDP ratios. |
| Keywords: | fiscal sustainability; primary budget balance; public debt; panel data; expanding window; fiscal rules. |
| JEL: | C23 H61 H63 E62 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03252024&r= |
| By: | Ziwei XU (Faculté de droit, d’économie et de finance, Université du Luxembourg, (Luxembourg)) |
| Abstract: | The development of social enterprises in China has been underway for many years, but there are as yet no laws regulating them. Even though several local governments or private platforms have issued a few social enterprise certification documents in the past years, it is only confined to the standards for social enterprise certification, and such standards are not identical, one reason is the lack of a superior law, i.e., the gap in the regulation and law at the national level, as well as the absence of legal status for social enterprises. Meanwhile, the rapid growth in the number of social enterprises has raised new demands for the legal recognition of social enterprises. As a result of covid-19, the collapse of the real economy and the rise in unemployment due to the delinking of China’s economy from globalization is also awaiting a breakthrough in the legitimacy of social enterprises to seek a solution. The role played by the Chinese government will also have an impact on the need for social enterprise legal frameworks. The introduction of social enterprise legislation in China, especially the timing of the adoption of this legal framework, cannot be separated from the situation of the development of the local social enterprise ecosystem, which is not isolated and closely related to the Chinese social system, economic development, political environment, and cultural background. This paper employs a literature-based analysis, supplemented by a comparative approach, to explore and analyze the need and timing of the introduction of legislation for social enterprises, with the hope of shedding some light on social enterprise stakeholders, potential investors, legal practitioners, lawmakers, and researchers in other fields. |
| Keywords: | social enterprise, legislation, need, time, ecosystem, China |
| JEL: | K22 L30 L31 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crc:wpaper:2306&r= |