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on Investment |
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Issue of 2024‒06‒10
29 papers chosen by |
| By: | Alexander Moog |
| Abstract: | Internal migration is an essential aspect to study labor mobility. I exploit the German statutory minimum wage introduction in 2015 to estimate its push and pull effects on internal migration using a 2% sample of administrative data. In a conditional fixed effects Poisson difference-in-differences framework with a continuous treatment, I find that the minimum wage introduction leads to an increase in the out-migration of low-skilled workers with migrant background by 25% with an increasing tendency over time from districts where a high share of workers are subject to the minimum wage (high-bite districts). In contrast the migration decision of native-born low-skilled workers is not affected by the policy. However, both native-born low-skilled workers and those with a migrant background do relocate across establishments, leaving high-bite districts as their workplace. In addition, I find an increase for unemployed individuals with a migrant background in out-migrating from high-bite districts. These results emphasize the importance of considering the effects on geographical labor mobility when implementing and analyzing policies that affect the determinants of internal migration. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.19590&r= |
| By: | Cassimon, Danny; Fadare, Olusegun; Mavrotas, George |
| Abstract: | The focus on Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG-2) to address hunger and food security has led to increased foreign capital flows into Sub-Saharan Africa, yet the region continues to grapple with rising food insecurity and malnutrition rates, exacerbated by governance challenges and dependency on imported staple crops. Recent research underscores the critical relationship between governance quality, capital flows, and food insecurity in the region, particularly in the context of post-pandemic challenges. |
| Keywords: | Sub-Saharan Africa, food security, development finance, governance quality |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iob:apbrfs:2024002&r= |
| By: | Steven Fazzari (Washington University in St. Louis); Alejandro Gonzalez (Washington University in St. Louis) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates a demand-led model of macroeconomic growth and fluctuations in which the growth rate of the economy's supply side converges to the growth rate of demand. Convergence happens because labor supply and productivity growth respond to the degree of slack in the economy. Faster demand growth reduces slack and stimulates supply (and vice-versa). We estimate the model using simulated method of moments and find statistically significant and quantitatively important hysteresis effects: the semi-elasticity of productivity and labor supply to the unemployment rate are 0.73 and 0.26, respectively. For an economy with labor market slack, these estimates imply that supply growth could accommodate a one percentage point increase in the growth rate of demand with a reasonable 0.75 percentage point reduction in the long-run unemployment rate. Additionally, we show the model replicates major features of business cycles as well the response of the economy to autonomous demand shocks, providing further validation of this approach to understanding macroeconomic dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Hysteresis, Demand-Led Growth, Supermultiplier |
| JEL: | E32 E12 O41 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:fmmpap:89-2023&r= |
| By: | Sascha Keil; Walter Paternesi Meloni |
| Abstract: | Over the past decades, models of circular and cumulative causation, based on the endogenous relations between prices, exports, and labour productivity, have lost prominence in explaining economic dynamics. We argue that, in the absence of counterbalancing mechanisms, the combination of price-sensitive exports and the triggering effect of exports on productivity can enable feedback loops and can significantly shape macroeconomic reality in the short-to-medium run. We apply an adapted export-led model of cumulative causation to 10 major countries belonging the Euro area, a region characterized by divergent wage growth trajectories reflected in divergent export competitiveness and lack of equilibrating mechanisms. Specifically, the model is tested for the period 1995–2020 employing a country-level system of equations (3SLS-ARDL). Our findings indicate that for the majority of the countries examined, this feedback mechanism – comprising price-sensitive exports and export demand affecting productivity growth – exacerbates macroeconomic disparities in terms of labour productivity. While nominal wages act as a potential trigger through their impact on price competitiveness, they also serve as a central factor that retards the feedback mechanism due to the Verdoorn effect of wage-induced demand. Overall, our results affirm the significance of price-induced and export-led theories of cumulative causation while also delineating its limitations, particularly regarding price competitiveness-oriented export-led growth strategies. |
| Keywords: | international trade, export, competitiveness, unit labour cost, wages, productivity, european imbalances |
| JEL: | F16 F41 J30 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:fmmpap:103-2024&r= |
| By: | Marini, Andrea |
| Abstract: | In this paper I investigate the retirement-consumption puzzle in Italy for the period 2010-2016, using SHIW data. In order to address the endogeneity of the retirement decision, I estimate the effect of retirement by exploiting the exogeneity of pension eligibility in an instrumental variable approach; the IV regression is then applied in a regression discontinuity design where only households close to the eligibility point are considered. The eligibility-instrument is found to be a strong predictor of the retirement decision, and the estimated non-durable consumption drop is equal to 12.3%. When households are distinguished according to the gender of the household head, female-led households are found to undergo a consumption decline that is more than double that estimated for households with male heads. The data and the literature on the subject indicate that this large difference is likely related to the gender pay-gap that translates into a gender pension-gap. Moreover, the consumption decline appears to be concentrated in households in the lower part of the wealth distribution. Nonetheless, households in the lowest wealth quintile, do not show a significant consumption decline. The data suggests that this might be due to the impossibility for these households to further reduce their consumption at retirement, as they are mostly composed of essential expenditures. JEL Classification: E2, E21, E24, J26, C01 |
| Keywords: | expenditures, household economics, inequality, instrumental variable regression, regression discontinuity design |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242936&r= |
| By: | Ravi B. Sojitra; Vasilis Syrgkanis |
| Abstract: | We consider Dynamic Treatment Regimes (DTRs) with one sided non-compliance that arise in applications such as digital recommendations and adaptive medical trials. These are settings where decision makers encourage individuals to take treatments over time, but adapt encouragements based on previous encouragements, treatments, states, and outcomes. Importantly, individuals may choose to (not) comply with a treatment recommendation, whenever it is made available to them, based on unobserved confounding factors. We provide non-parametric identification, estimation, and inference for Dynamic Local Average Treatment Effects, which are expected values of multi-period treatment contrasts among appropriately defined complier subpopulations. Under standard assumptions in the Instrumental Variable and DTR literature, we show that one can identify local average effects of contrasts that correspond to offering treatment at any single time step. Under an additional cross-period effect-compliance independence assumption, which is satisfied in Staggered Adoption settings and a generalization of them, which we define as Staggered Compliance settings, we identify local average treatment effects of treating in multiple time periods. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2405.01463&r= |
| By: | Mancino, M. Antonella; Morales, Leonardo Fabio; Salazar, Diego F. |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the returns to signaling occupation-specific skills using unique administrative data from a nationwide certification program in Colombia. The program certifies skills and issues three certificates: basic, intermediate, and advanced. We use regression discontinuity methods to compare workers' earnings around certificateassignment thresholds. Signaling advanced occupation-specific skills yields significant returns: 9.7%, on average, within two years of certification. Instead, we find no effects from signaling basic or intermediate occupation-specific skills. Our analysis reveals that the primary mechanism behind the observed income effects associated with the advanced certificate is the ability to signal occupation-specific skills to potential employers. |
| JEL: | J01 J31 J44 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:clefwp:294853&r= |
| By: | Adelia Fatikhova; Fabrizio Fusillo; Sandro Montresor; |
| Abstract: | This work investigates the role of external exchanges of green knowledge on the regional development of new green technological specializations. We extend the recombinant knowledge framework to commodity-embodied knowledge and posit that inter-industry inter-regional flows of commodities, in which new green knowledge gets incorporated, are a channel through which regions can increase their opportunities of specializing in new green technologies and diversify in a more exploratory manner. We further expect these dynamics to be stronger when foreign rather than domestic embodied flows are concerned. By combining the EUREGIO input-output database with patent data, we test our hypotheses on a sample of 237 EU (NUTS2) regions over the period 2000-2019. We measure the regions’ centrality in the network of inter-regional flows of embodied green knowledge (GreenFlowNet) and exploit regional network centrality in a model of related diversification for green technologies. Results show that the centrality of regions in the network is positively associated with green diversification, making this process more exploratory. We also find that the regional ability to acquire new green-techs is mainly associated with the centrality in outward flows of green knowledge towards other regions rather than inward ones. Lastly, we find that regions’ green-tech diversification seems to be enabled (at the extensive margin) primarily by their centrality in the foreign network and accelerated (at the intensive margin) by their centrality in the domestic one. Policy implications are drawn accordingly. |
| Keywords: | green technologies, diversification, relatedness, knowledge networks |
| JEL: | R11 R15 O52 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2413&r= |
| By: | Zhi-Chun Li; De-Ping Yu; André de Palma (CY Cergy Paris Université, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | We propose an analytical solvable model for household residential location choice in a linear monocentric city corridor with bottleneck congestion. Households are heterogeneous in terms of their income. The bottleneck is located between central downtown and adjacent suburb. The urban equilibrium is formulated as the solution of differential equations. We analytically explore the distributional effects of bottleneck capacity expansion on households and the bottleneck capacity investment issues under no toll and first-best and second-best tolls. The results show that the benefits of different-income households from bottleneck capacity expansion change with toll schemes. Specifically, under the no toll and first-best toll, those who gain most are the mid-income households residing at the bottleneck and in a suburban location (close to the bottleneck) respectively, whereas those who gain least are the poorest or richest households. Under the second-best toll, there are two possible cases: the poorest households gain most while the richest households gain least, or the mid-income households residing at the bottleneck gain most while the richest or poorest households gain least. With constant return to scale for capacity investment, self-financing principle still holds for the first-best and second-best tolling in the urban spatial context. Ignoring the changes in urban spatial structure due to household relocation may cause overinvestment or underinvestment in optimal bottleneck capacity under the no toll, but definitely underinvestment under the first-best and second-best tolls. |
| Keywords: | Bottleneck congestion; urban spatial structure; heterogeneous households; capacity expansion; distributional effect; congestion tolling; self-financing |
| JEL: | R13 R14 R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2024-04&r= |
| By: | Bandiera, Oriana (London School of Economics); Kotia, Ananya (London School of Economics); Lindenlaub, Ilse (Yale University); Moser, Christian (Columbia University); Prat, Andrea (Columbia University) |
| Abstract: | Are labor markets in higher-income countries more meritocratic, in the sense that worker-job matching is based on skills rather than idiosyncratic attributes unrelated to productivity? If so, why? And what are the aggregate consequences? Using internationally comparable data on worker skills and job skill requirements of over 120, 000 individuals across 28 countries, we document that workers' skills better match their jobs' skill requirements in higher-income countries. To quantify the role of worker-job matching in development accounting, we build an equilibrium matching model that allows for cross-country differences in three fundamentals: (i) the endowments of multidimensional worker skills and job skill requirements, which determine match feasibility; (ii) technology, which determines the returns to matching; and (iii) idiosyncratic matching frictions, which capture the role of nonproductive worker and job traits in the matching process. The estimated model delivers two key insights. First, improvements in worker-job matching due to reduced matching frictions account for only a small share of cross-country income differences. Second, however, improved worker-job matching is crucial for unlocking the gains from economic development generated by adopting frontier endowments and technology. |
| Keywords: | skills, sorting, matching, multidimensional heterogeneity, development accounting, wage inequality, gender, migration |
| JEL: | C78 E24 J24 J31 O11 O12 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16938&r= |
| By: | Lin, Zhuoer; Yin, Xuecheng; Levy, Becca R.; Yuan, Yue; Chen, Xi |
| Abstract: | Cognitive impairment poses considerable challenges among older adults, with the protective role of family support becoming increasingly crucial. This study examines the role of children's residential proximity and spousal presence with dementia risk in cognitively impaired older adults. We analyzed 14, 600 individuals aged 50 and older with cognitive impairment from the Health and Retirement Study (1995-2018). Family support was categorized by spousal presence and children's residential proximity. Modifiable risk factors, including smoking, depressive symptoms, and social isolation, were assessed. Mixed-effects models were estimated. A significant proportion of older adults with cognitive impairment lacked access to family support, with either no spouse (46.9%) or all children living over 10 miles away (25.3%). Those with less available family support, characterized by distant-residing children and the absence of a spouse, had a significantly higher percentage of smoking, depressive symptoms, and social isolation. Moreover, we revealed a consistent gradient in the percentage of the risk factors by the degree of family support. Relative to older adults with a spouse and co-resident children, those without a spouse and with all children residing further than 10 miles displayed the highest percentage of the risk factors. These findings were robust to various sensitivity analyses. |
| Keywords: | dementia, depression, social isolation, smoking, long-term care, family support, residential proximity |
| JEL: | I12 J14 I18 I11 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1437&r= |
| By: | Sebastian Dullien (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Silke Tober (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)) |
| Abstract: | Mit 3, 7 % lag die Inflationsrate im Dezember 2023 infolge eines Basiseffekts höher als im November 2023, aber dennoch etwas niedriger als im Oktober 2023. Die Jahresinflationsrate betrug 5, 9 % nach 6, 9 % im Jahr 2022. Die auf Grundlage der Einkommens- und Verbrauchsstichprobe und der Verbraucherpreisstatistik berechneten Inflationsraten für unterschiedliche Haushaltstypen in verschiedenen Einkommensklassen unterschieden sich im Dezember 2023 kaum; im Januar 2023 hatte die Spanne noch bei 2, 6 Prozentpunkten gelegen, im März 2023 sogar bei 2, 7 Prozentpunkten. Damals hatten einkommensschwache Haushalte wie bereits im Jahr 2022 die höchsten Inflationsraten zu verzeichnen, da Nahrungsmittel und Haushaltsenergie, die als Güter des Grundbedarfs einen hohen Anteil an den Konsumausgaben dieser Haushalte haben, besonders stark im Preis stiegen. Im Dezember 2023 betrug der maximale Unterschied zwischen den haushaltsspezifischen Inflationsraten nur noch 0, 3 Prozentpunkte, wobei einkommensschwache Alleinlebende anders als in den drei Monaten zuvor die höchste Inflationsrate aufwiesen. Im Jahr 2023 insgesamt hatten einkommensschwache Alleinlebende die höchste Inflationsrate (6, 3 %). Diese lag um einen Prozentpunkt höher als die am unteren Rand liegende Inflationsrate einkommensstarker Alleinlebender. Die Inflation hat sich schneller zurückgebildet als vor einem Jahr vielfach erwartet. Für den Euroraum prognostizierte die Europäische Zentralbank im Dezember 2022 eine Inflationsrate von 6, 3 % für 2023. Letztendlich lag die Inflationsrate im Euroraum im vergangenen Jahr aber bei 5, 4 % und im Dezember 2023 trotz des Basiseffekts im größten Euroland Deutschland bei 2, 9 %. Angesichts der seit dem vierten Quartal 2022 stagnierenden Wirtschaft im Euroraum, einer zu erwartenden leicht schrumpfenden deutschen Wirtschaft auch 2024 und absehbar geringerer Lohnsteigerun-gen sollte die EZB zeitnah über eine Korrektur ihrer ausgeprägt restriktiven Geldpolitik nachdenken. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:pbrief:163-2024&r= |
| By: | Joshua S. Gans |
| Abstract: | Mobile app commissions paid by app developers to a monopolist device maker/app store operator are examined. Three results are demonstrated. First, unregulated app commissions are set at a level that maximises consumer surplus. Second, eliminating app commissions will lead to higher device prices. Third, requiring a menu of options for consumers as to how device makers receive subsidies from app developers constrains app commissions in a way that provides a more equal balance between consumer versus app developer interests. |
| JEL: | L11 L40 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32339&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The Moroccan economy once again showed resilience to negative shocks in 2023, as economic activity accelerated, inflation slowed, and the current account deficit narrowed despite headwinds from water scarcity (which caused a severe loss of jobs in the agricultural sector), the September 2023 earthquake, and lower growth in the Euro Area. The ambitious infrastructure plan announced by the authorities (including in water and energy sectors) is expected to boost investment and growth in the next few years, with the current account gradually converging towards the medium-term norm. The fiscal deficit in 2023 was below the level projected in the Budget and the authorities reiterated their commitment to a gradual fiscal consolidation over the next three years. Implementation of the structural reform agenda has continued, particularly regarding the overhaul of social protection, health care, and education systems. |
| Date: | 2024–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/099&r= |
| By: | Robert G. Valletta; Mary Yilma |
| Abstract: | We assess the effects of the historically unprecedented expansion of U.S. unemployment insurance (UI) payments during the COVID-19 pandemic. The adverse economic impacts of the pandemic, notably the pattern of job losses and earnings reductions, were disproportionately born by lower-income individuals. Focusing on household income as a broad measure of well-being, we document that UI payments almost completely offset the increase in household income inequality that otherwise would have occurred in 2020 and 2021. We also examine the impacts of the $600 increase in weekly UI benefit payments, available during part of 2020, on job search outcomes. We find that despite the very high replacement rate of lost earnings for low-wage individuals, the search disincentive effects of the enhanced UI payments were limited overall and smaller for individuals from lower-income households. These results suggest that the pandemic UI expansions improved equity but had limited consequences for economic efficiency. |
| Keywords: | unemployment insurance; covid19; inequality; income support; job search |
| JEL: | D31 J64 J65 |
| Date: | 2024–05–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:98195&r= |
| By: | Rutledge, Zachariah; Rickman, Samuel |
| Abstract: | On November 2, 2023, the Michigan State University Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics held a farm labor conference to investigate labor challenges that domestic agricultural employers and employees are facing, discuss potential solutions, and provide Michigan's agricultural stakeholders with information and resources to help address these challenges. One hundred and twenty individuals registered for the conference and 90 guests attended in person. The specific objectives of the conference were to (i) determine the most pressing labor challenges being faced by agricultural employers and employees, (ii) identify industry and government resources that can help address these challenges and disseminate this information to agricultural stakeholders, and (iii) find and discuss (amongst academia, industry, and government) potential policy and regulatory solutions. |
| Keywords: | Farm Management, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midaae:342307&r= |
| By: | Silvia Angerer (UMIT TIROL - Private University for Health Sciences and Health Technology); Hanna Brosch (Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Management, Heilbronn Campus); Daniela Glätzle-Rützler (University of Innsbruck); Philipp Lergetporer (Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Management, Heilbronn & ifo Institute); Thomas Rittmansberger (Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Management) |
| Abstract: | We present representative evidence of discrimination against migrants through an incentivized choice experiment with over 2, 000 participants. Decision makers allocate a fixed endowment between two receivers. To measure discrimination, we randomly vary receivers’ migration background and other attributes, including education, gender, and age. We find that discrimination against migrants by the general population is both widespread and substantial. Our causal moderation analysis shows that migrants with higher education and female migrants experience significantly less discrimination. Discrimination is more pronounced among decision makers who are male, non-migrants, have right-wing political preferences, and live in regions with lower migrant shares. |
| Keywords: | discrimination, representative sample, migration, experiment |
| JEL: | C91 C93 J15 D90 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aiw:wpaper:35&r= |
| By: | Noemia Goulart; Rui Dias |
| Abstract: | The United Nations General Assembly adopted the 2030 Agenda, which unites the efforts of all countries to achieve sustainable development by that year with 17 development areas and an equal number of universal objectives - the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Implementing the necessary public policies in this regard requires instruments such as the national budget to take these goals into account. Budgeting for the SDGs (B4SDG) has thus emerged as an instrument for better budgeting, promoting the incorporation of these goals systematically and across the board in government decisionmaking. This text presents the state of the art about the implementation of budgeting for the SDGs and its framework in the budgetary process in Portugal, and the information available on the realisation of the SDG targets. |
| Keywords: | Sustainable Development Goals, Programme budgeting; 2030 Agenda |
| JEL: | H59 H61 Q01 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:alf:opaper:2023-02&r= |
| By: | Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio; Özak, Ömer (Southern Methodist University) |
| Abstract: | We explore the effect of historical ethnic borders on contemporary conflict in Africa. We document that the intensive and extensive margins of contemporary conflict are higher close to historical ethnic borders. Exploiting variations across artificial regions within an ethnicity's historical homeland and a theory-based instrumental variable approach, we find that regions crossed by historical ethnic borders have 27 percentage points higher probability of conflict and 7.9 percentage points higher probability of being the initial location of a conflict. We uncover several key underlying mechanisms: competition for agricultural land, population pressure, cultural similarity, and weak property rights. |
| Date: | 2024–05–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8uxd4&r= |
| By: | Sebastian Dullien (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Silke Tober (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)) |
| Abstract: | Die Inflationsrate lag im November 2023 mit 3, 2 % deutlich niedriger als im Oktober 2023 (3, 8 %) und um mehr als 5 Prozentpunkte unter dem Niveau von einem Jahr zuvor. Einkommensschwache Haushalte haben angesichts sinkender Energiepreise und abgeschwächt steigender Nahrungsmittelpreise die geringsten Inflationsraten, nachdem sie bis vor kurzem noch Monat für Monat die höchste Belastung hatten. Nahrungsmittel und alkoholfreie Getränke verteuerten sich im Vergleich zum Vorjahresmonat um 5, 8 % (Oktober 2023: 6, 4 %), Haushaltsenergie verbilligte sich um 2, 7 % (Oktober 2023: +0, 1 %). Den höchsten Preisanstieg verzeichnete Haushaltsenergie im Oktober 2022 mit 47, 1 %, Nahrungsmittel und alkoholfreie Getränke im März 2023 mit 21, 2 %. Die Spanne der haushaltsspezifischen Teuerungsraten lag im November 2023 bei 0, 6 Prozentpunkten, verglichen mit 3, 1 Prozentpunkten auf ihrem Höhepunkt im Oktober 2022 und noch 2, 4 Prozentpunkten im März dieses Jahres. Für einkommensschwache Paare mit zwei Kindern ist die Teuerungsrate von 11, 0 % im Oktober 2022 auf nunmehr 2, 4 % gesunken, für einkommensschwache Alleinlebende von 10, 7 % im November 2022 auf 2, 5 %. Die höchste Inflationsrate hatten wie bereits im Vormonat einkommensstarke Paare mit zwei Kindern zu verzeichnen (3, 0 %). Der Erdgaspreis war im November 2023 erstmals seit Ende 2020 niedriger als im Vorjahr. Im Dezember wird die Teuerungsrate von Erdgas infolge des Basiseffekts der staatlichen Abschlagsübernahme ein Jahr zuvor deutlich positiv sein und die Inflationsrate nach oben ziehen. Entfallen im Januar 2024 die Preisbremsen und im März 2024 die begünstigte Mehrwertsteuer, kommt es jeweils zu einem merklichen Preissprung gegenüber dem Vormonat. Im weiteren Verlauf des ersten Halbjahres dürften die Erdgas- und Strompreise aber deutlich abnehmen, da die Preise bei Neuabschlüssen wie bereits aktuell deutlich niedriger sein dürften als bei den laufenden Verträgen. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:pbrief:162-2023&r= |
| By: | Clint Harris; Jon Eckhardt; Brent Goldfarb |
| Abstract: | Selection into samples undermines efforts to describe populations and to estimate relationships between variables. We develop a simple method for correcting for sample selection that explains differences in survey responses between early and late respondents with correlation between potential responses and preference for survey response. Our method relies on researchers observing the number of data collection attempts prior to each individual's survey response rather than covariates that affect response rates without affecting potential responses. Applying our method to a survey of entrepreneurial aspirations among undergraduates at University of Wisconsin-Madison, we find suggestive evidence that the entrepreneurial aspiration rate is larger among survey respondents than the population, as well as the male-female gender gap in the entrepreneurial aspiration rate, which we estimate as 21 percentage points in the sample and 19 percentage points in the population. Our results suggest that the male-female gap in entrepreneurial aspirations arises prior to direct exposure to the labor market. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.17693&r= |
| By: | Nilsson, Peter (Institute for International Economic Studies & Linnaeus University); Tarduno, Matthew (University of Illinois at Chicago); Tebbe, Sebastian (School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California San Diego) |
| Abstract: | We provide a framework for setting congestion charges that reflect emission and congestion externalities and policy responses, such as vehicle ownership, driving, and residential sorting. Using Swedish administrative microdata, we identify these responses by exploiting a temporary exemption for alternative fuel vehicles and variation in individuals’ exposure to congestion charges. We find that commuters respond by adopting exempted alternative fuel vehicles, shifting trips away from fossil fuel toward alternative fuel vehicles, and changing where they live and work. We combine the estimated responses with the framework to recover an optimal congestion charge of €9.46 per crossing in Stockholm. |
| Keywords: | congestion pricing; |
| JEL: | R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2024–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vxesta:2024_007&r= |
| By: | Athey, Susan (Stanford University); Simon, Lisa (Revelio Labs); Skans, Oskar (Dep. of Economics, Uppsala University); Johan Vikström, Johan (IFAU; Dep. of Economics, Uppsala University); Yakymovych, Yaroslav (Institute for Housing and Urban Research, Uppsala University) |
| Abstract: | Using generalized random forests and rich Swedish administrative data, we show that the earnings effects of job displacement due to establishment closures are highly heterogeneous. We find as much heterogeneity within as across closing establishments, and within as across worker types defined by age and schooling. We display the potential of market-based policy interventions by showing that much of the heterogeneity across establishments is shared within markets. Several results suggest that the effect heterogeneity disfavors already vulnerable workers. Thus, targeted policy interventions may be justified to a larger extent than suggested by estimated average earnings effects. |
| Keywords: | Plant closures; heterogeneous effects; GRF; |
| JEL: | C45 J21 J31 J65 |
| Date: | 2024–05–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2024_010&r= |
| By: | Raphael Auer; Mathieu Pedemonte; Raphael Schoenle |
| Abstract: | Is inflation (still) a global phenomenon? We study the international co-movement of inflation based on a dynamic factor model and in a sample spanning up to 56 countries during the 1960-2023 period. Over the entire period, a first global factor explains approximately 58% of the variation in headline inflation across all countries and over 72% in OECD economies. The explanatory power of global inflation is equally high in a shorter sample spanning the time since 2000. Core inflation is also remarkably global, with 53% of its variation attributable to a first global factor. The explanatory power of a second global factor is lower, except for select emerging economies. Variables such as a broad dollar index, the US federal funds rate, and a measure of commodity prices positively correlate with the first global factor. This global factor is also correlated with US inflation during the 70s, 80s, the GFC, and COVID. However, it lags these variables during the post-COVID period. Country-level integration in global value chains accounts for a significant proportion of the share of both local headline and core inflation dynamics explained by global factors. |
| Keywords: | globalization; inflation; Phillips curve; monetary policy; global value chain; international inflation synchronization |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 F02 F41 F42 F14 F62 |
| Date: | 2024–05–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:98253&r= |
| By: | Barron, Kai; Fries, Tilman |
| Abstract: | We study how one person may shape the way another person interprets objective information. They do this by proposing a sense-making explanation (or narrative). Using a theory-driven experiment, we investigate the mechanics of such narrative persuasion. Our results reveal several insights. First, narratives are persuasive: We find that they systematically shift beliefs. Second, narrative fit (coherence with the facts) is a key determinant of persuasiveness. Third, this fit-heuristic is anticipated by narrative-senders, who systematically tailor their narratives to the facts. Fourth, the features of a competing narrative predictably influence both narrative construction and adoption. |
| Keywords: | Narratives, beliefs, explanations, mental models, experiment, financial advice |
| JEL: | D83 G40 G50 C90 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbeoc:295066&r= |
| By: | Boris Chafwehé; Andrea Colciago; Romanos Priftis |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a New Keynesian multi-sector industry model incorporating firm heterogeneity, entry, and exit dynamics, while considering energy production from both fossil fuels and renewables. We examine the impacts of a sustained fossil fuel price hike on sectoral size, labor productivity, and inflation. Final good sectors are ex-ante heterogeneous in terms of energy intensity in production. For this reason, a higher relative price of fossil resources affects their profitability asymmetrically. Further, it entails a substitution effect that leads to a greener mix of resources in the production of energy. As production costs rise, less efficient firms leave the market, while new entrants must display higher idiosyncratic productivity. While this process enhances average labor productivity, it also results in a lasting decrease in the entry of new firms. A central bank with a strong anti-inflationary stance can circumvent the energy price increase and mitigate its inflationary effects by curbing rising production costs while promoting sectoral reallocation. While this entails a higher impact cost in terms of output and lower average productivity, it leads to a faster recovery in business dynamism in the medium-term. |
| Keywords: | Energy, productivity, firm entry and exit, monetary policy. |
| JEL: | E62 L16 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mib:wpaper:534&r= |
| By: | Weihong Qi |
| Abstract: | This study reevaluates the traditional understanding of the "political resource curse" by examining the unique impact of energy transition metals, specifically cobalt, on local-level conflicts in Africa. Contrary to previous studies that primarily focus on high-value minerals and their political outcomes resulted from substantial economic revenues, this study investigates cobalt's influence on local conflict. Despite its strategic importance, cobalt's limited commercial value presents a unique yet critical case for analysis. Different with the prevailing view that links mineral reserves with increased conflict, this research finds that regions rich in cobalt experience a reduction in conflict. This decrease is attributed to enhanced government security measures, which are implemented independently of the economic benefits derived from cobalt as a commodity. The study utilizes a combination of georeferenced data and a difference-in-difference design to analyze the causal relationship between cobalt deposits and regional conflict. The findings suggest that the presence of cobalt deposits leads to enhanced security interventions by governments, effectively reducing the likelihood of non-governmental actors taking control of these territories. This pattern offers a new perspective on the role of energy transition metals in shaping conflict and governance, highlighting the need to reassess theoretical frameworks related to the political implications of natural resources with the ongoing energy revolution. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.17713&r= |
| By: | Li, Zehang; Elías, Antonio; Morales, Juan M. |
| Abstract: | Gathering knowledge of supply curves in electricity markets is critical to both energy producers and regulators. Indeed, power producers strategically plan their generation of electricity considering various scenarios to maximize profit, leveraging the characteristics of these curves. For their part, regulators need to forecast the supply curves to monitor the market’s performance and identify market distortions. However, the prevailing approaches in the technical literature for analyzing, clustering, and predicting these curves are based on structural assumptions that electricity supply curves do not satisfy in practice, namely, boundedness and smoothness. Furthermore, any attempt to satisfactorily cluster the supply curves observed in a market must take into account the market’s specific features. Against this background, this article introduces a hierarchical clustering method based on a novel weighted-distance that is specially tailored to non bounded and non-smooth supply curves and embeds information on the price distribution of offers, thus overcoming the drawbacks of conventional clustering techniques. Once the clusters have been obtained, a supervised classification procedure is used to characterize them as a function of relevant market variables. Additionally, the proposed distance is used in a learning procedure by which explanatory information is exploited to forecast the supply curves in a day-ahead electricity market. This procedure combines the idea of nearest neighbors with a machine-learning method. The prediction performance of our proposal is extensively evaluated and compared against two nearest-neighbor benchmarks and existing competing methods. To this end, supply curves from the markets of Spain, Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM), and West Australia are considered. |
| Keywords: | Clustering; Forecasting; Supply curve; Electricity market |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:wsrepe:43805&r= |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | Central banks are considering the issuance of a central bank digital currency to serve as a payment tool to support economic activities. A central bank digital currency can also serve secondary purposes that are related or unrelated to the statutory objectives of a central bank which is monetary and price stability. Many central banks are thinking too fast about central bank digital currencies – they are very optimistic about the potential benefits of central bank digital currencies. While such optimism is good, central banks also need to think slowly about central bank digital currency by paying serious attention to known risks and whether there is a unique use case for CBDC. This calls for cautious optimism and a need for central banks to think fast and slow about central bank digital currencies. |
| Keywords: | CBDC, central bank digital currency, cryptocurrency, digital payment, thinking fast and slow |
| JEL: | E40 E42 E49 E50 E52 E58 E59 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120774&r= |