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on Investment |
| By: | Lelys Dinarte-Diaz |
| Abstract: | Globally, 150 million adolescents report being victims of or engaging in peer-to-peer violence in and around school. One strategy to reduce this risk is to occupy youth in after-school programs (ASP). Yet, the question remains: how does peer group composition affect the effectiveness of an ASP? I address this question by randomly assigning youths to either a control, homogeneous, or heterogeneous peer group within an ASP implemented in El Salvador. I find that, unlike homo-geneous groups, heterogeneous peer groups do help students avoid violence. These results are relevant to public policy discussions on optimal group composition for violence reduction programs |
| Keywords: | peer effects, violence, integration, tracking, after-school programs |
| JEL: | I29 K42 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10975&r=inv |
| By: | Gasparini, Tommaso; Lewis, Vivien; Moyen, Stéphane; Villa, Stefania |
| Abstract: | Increases in firm default risk raise the default probability of banks while decreasing output and inflation in US data. To rationalize the empirical evidence, we analyse firm risk shocks in a New Keynesian model where entrepreneurs and banks engage in a loan contract and both are subject to default risk. In the model, a wave of corporate defaults leads to losses on banks' balance sheets; banks respond by selling assets and reducing credit provision. A highly leveraged banking sector exacerbates the contractionary effects of firm defaults. We show that high minimum capital requirements jointly implemented with a countercyclical capital buffer are effective in dampening the adverse consequences of firm risk shocks. |
| Keywords: | bank default, capital buffer, firm risk, macroprudential policy |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 E61 G28 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:287761&r=inv |
| By: | In Kyung Kim (Department of Economics, Sogang University, Seoul, Korea); Jinhyuk Lee (Department of Economics, Korea University); Hyejoon Im (School of Economics & Finance, Yeungnam University) |
| Abstract: | Using retail scanner data from Kazakhstan, an emerging economy with significant and un-expected exchange rate fluctuations, we observe an incomplete yet substantial exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into prices. Specifically, we note a 50% change occurring a year after the initial shock. The ERPT demonstrates asymmetry in response to exchange rate movements. Notably, the direction of this asymmetry is opposite for imported versus domestic products. Furthermore, our findings indicate that ERPT is non-linear; the price response is more pro-nounced when the exchange shock is small, aligning with the existence of menu costs. Our results also reveal that larger retailers exhibit a greater ERPT compared to smaller or medium-sized retailers, regardless of the exchange rate shock direction. Understanding these asymmetric and non-linear price responses to exchange rate shocks may be crucial for formulating effective inflation targeting policies, especially in emerging economies prone to high inflation. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate pass-through, consumer prices, scanner data, inflation dynamics |
| JEL: | F31 L16 F41 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgo:wpaper:2303&r=inv |
| By: | Steve Agnew (University of Canterbury); Tom Coupé (University of Canterbury); Cassia Hingston |
| Abstract: | This study analysed a cohort of over 43, 000 students from their first day of school in 2008 to the end of their compulsory schooling in New Zealand in 2018. Data was collected from a range of linked national datasets collated by Stats NZ, New Zealand's official data agency. Variables were categorised into demographic, socioeconomic status (SES), learning support, family climate and parental education categories. These categories and the variables within them were identified in a review of the school exclusion literature. Pacific learners, a group over-represented in school exclusion rates in New Zealand were compared to Pākehā (New Zealand European) learners. Regression analysis established that once variables identified in the literature were accounted for, there was no significant difference in rates of exclusion between Pacific and Pākehā learners. One of the key explanatory variables for the higher rates of Pacific learner school exclusion is receiving English for speakers of other languages (ESOL) support. In this research, receiving ESOL support is suggested to be a proxy for identifying a student with language difficulties. The level of ESOL funding provided to schools, as well as how the funding is applied within each school to address ESOL Pacific learner needs is then discussed. |
| Keywords: | School exclusion; Pacific learners, ESOL |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I28 J15 J18 |
| Date: | 2024–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbt:econwp:24/04&r=inv |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Oxford, UK); Sara le Roux (Oxford, UK) |
| Abstract: | The study investigates the role of governance (i.e., ‘voice & accountability’, political stability/no violence, regulatory quality, government effectiveness, corruption-control and the rule of law) in the incidence of short-term debt services on infrastructure development in the perspective of telecommunication infrastructure and access to electricity. The focus of the study is on 52 African countries for the period 2002-2021. The generalized method of moments is employed as estimation strategy and the following findings are established. Debt service has a negative unconditional effect on access to electricity and telecommunication infrastructure. Governance dynamics moderate the negative effect of debt service on infrastructure dynamics. Effective moderation is from regulatory quality and corruption-control for access to electricity and from government effectiveness, regulatory quality, corruption-control and rule of law, for telecommunication infrastructure. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Debt service, governance; information technology; access to electricity; Africa |
| JEL: | F34 H63 O10 O40 O55 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:24/003&r=inv |
| By: | Doorley, Karina; Gromadzki, Jan; Lewandowski, Piotr; Tuda, Dora; Van Kerm, Philippe |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of robot penetration on household income inequality in 14 European countries between 2006-2018, a period of rapid adoption of industrial robots. Automation reduced relative hourly wages and employment of more exposed demographic groups, similarly to the results for the US. Using robot-driven wage and employment shocks as input to the EUROMOD microsimulation model, we find that automation had minor effects on income inequality. Household labour income diversification and tax and welfare policies largely absorbed labour market shocks caused by automation. Transfers played a key role in cushioning the transmission of these shocks to household incomes. |
| Abstract: | Wir untersuchen die Auswirkungen der Roboterdurchdringung auf die Ungleichheit der Haushaltseinkommen in 14 europäischen Ländern zwischen 2006 und 2018, einer Zeit der schnellen Einführung von Industrierobotern. Ähnlich wie in den USA hat die Automatisierung die relativen Stundenlöhne und die Beschäftigung von stärker belasteten demografischen Gruppen reduziert. Unter Verwendung von roboterbedingten Lohn- und Beschäftigungsschocks als Input für das Mikrosimulationsmodell EUROMOD finden wir, dass die Automatisierung nur geringe Auswirkungen auf die Einkommensungleichheit hatte. Die Diversifizierung des Arbeitseinkommens der Haushalte und Steuer- und Sozialpolitik fingen die durch die Automatisierung verursachten Arbeitsmarktschocks weitgehend ab. Transfers spielten eine Schlüsselrolle bei der Abfederung der Übertragung dieser Schocks auf die Haushaltseinkommen. |
| Keywords: | Robots, automation, tasks, income inequality, wage inequality, microsimulation |
| JEL: | J24 O33 J23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:287766&r=inv |
| By: | Alistair Barton |
| Abstract: | We study finite-state communication games in which the sender's preference is perturbed by random private idiosyncrasies. Persuasion is generically impossible within the class of statistically independent sender/receiver preferences -- contrary to prior research establishing persuasive equilibria when the sender's preference is precisely transparent. Nevertheless, robust persuasion may occur when the sender's preference is only slightly state-dependent/idiosyncratic. This requires approximating an `acyclic' equilibrium of the transparent preference game, generically implying that this equilibrium is also `connected' -- a generalization of partial-pooling equilibria. It is then necessary and sufficient that the sender's preference satisfy a monotonicity condition relative to the approximated equilibrium. If the sender's preference further satisfies a `semi-local' version of increasing differences, then this analysis extends to sender preferences that rank pure actions (but not mixed actions) according to a state-independent order. We apply these techniques to study (1) how ethical considerations, such as empathy for the receiver, may improve or impede comm |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2403.13983&r=inv |
| By: | David Suárez-Cuesta; María Concepción Latorre; Diego Rodríguez |
| Abstract: | Este trabajo examina la Ley de Reducción de la Inflación (IRA) de Estados Unidos de 2022, junto con la Ley de Industria de Cero Emisiones Netas (NZIA) y la Ley de Materias Primas Críticas (CRMA) de la Unión Europea (UE), ambas de 2023, con el objeto de poner de manifiesto sus enfoques diferenciales para acelerar la inversión en tecnologías limpias, mejorar la seguridad energética y fortificar las cadenas de suministro. Las dos regiones comparten el objetivo de disminuir la dependencia del dominio chino en las industrias limpias, con distintas estrategias. Estados Unidos pretende estimular la inversión privada principalmente mediante créditos fiscales sin tope de 2022 a 2031, en algunos casos con requisitos estrictos de contenido nacional. La estrategia de la UE, que ha reaccionado ante una posible violación de las normas de la Organización Mundial del Comercio y ante un posible desplazamiento de la inversión verde hacia Estados Unidos, se basa en gran medida en una estrategia reguladora, con énfasis en la simplificación de los procedimientos. Sin embargo, el modelo de financiación pública de la UE es impreciso y deja muchos detalles a la discreción de los Estados miembros, con el consiguiente riesgo de fragmentación del mercado único. En ese sentido, destacamos el contraste entre los incentivos fiscales inmediatos de la IRA y el enfoque regulador de la NZIA, subrayando que los primeros son más atractivos para las empresas. Con todo, la UE permite a los Estados Miembros igualar los incentivos fiscales ofrecidos por terceros países a las empresas europeas, existiendo ya algún ejemplo real de aplicación de estas ayudas. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdafen:2024-13&r=inv |
| By: | Rustam Jamilov (University of Oxford); Alexandre Kohlhas (University of Oxford); Oleksandr Talavera (University of Birmingham); Mao Zhang (University of St Andrews) |
| Abstract: | We propose an empirically-motivated theory of business cycles, driven by fluctuations in sentiment towards a small number of firms. We measure firm-level sentiment with computational linguistics and analyst forecast errors. We find that 50 firms can account for over 70% of the unconditional variation in U.S. sentiment and output over the period 2006-2021. The “Granular Sentiment Index”, measuring sentiment towards the 50 firms, is dominated by firms that are closer to the final consumer, i.e. are downstream. To rationalize our findings, we embed endogenous information choice into a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous upstream and downstream firms. We show that attention centers on downstream firms because they act as natural “information agglomerators”. When calibrated to match select moments of U.S. data, the model shows that orthogonal shocks to sentiment of the 20% most downstream firms explain more than 90% of sentiment-driven (and 20% of total) aggregate fluctuations. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:2414&r=inv |
| By: | Jose-Miguel Benavente; Claudio Bravo-Ortega; Pablo Egaña-delSol; Bronwyn H. Hall |
| Abstract: | We analyze how expropriation risk reduces incentives for innovation and reallocates resources from the innovative sector, building on Romer’s(1990) model. Our framework predicts the R&D expenditure, the share of human capital in R&D, the number of patents, technical progress, and economic growth are all lower due to lower expected profits and patent devaluation in the presence of expropriation risks. Empirical analyses, based on a LASSO Instrumental Variable approach and a novel comprehensive dataset spanning nearly two decades, confirm our theoretical predictions. We find robust evidence that expropriation risk, such as corruption, negatively impacts innovation by reducing R&D expenditure, human capital in R&D, number of patents, scientific publications, and the Economic Complexity Index, which is our proxy for technical progress. These findings highlight the detrimental effects of expropriation risk on innovation and economic development at the country level. |
| JEL: | O17 O30 O50 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32288&r=inv |
| By: | Juan Armando Torres Munguía (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen); Marlies Hesselman (University of Groningen); Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen); Ilse Ruyssen (Ghent University) |
| Abstract: | This paper compiles and presents a global panel dataset of energy poverty policy actions spanning the period March 2020 and March 2021. It builds on the COVID-19 Energy Map that collects policies to ensure the affordability of energy supplies for households during the COVID-19 pandemic. The monthly-frequency dataset is organized in a user-friendly way, allowing not only experts and researchers, but also the broader non-expert public, to examine and analyse the month-by-month policy changes across countries. The panel dataset is widely applicable for future research, especially as other global or regional datasets pertaining to the early years of the pandemic become available. |
| Keywords: | Energy poverty; COVID-19 |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inf:wpaper:2024.04&r=inv |
| By: | Etienne Fakaba Sissoko (Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako - USSGB - Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako, CRAPES MALI - Centre de Recherche et d'Analyses Politiques, Economiques et Sociales du Mali); Khalid Dembele ((CRAPES) - Centre de Recherches et d'Analyses Politiques, Economiques et Sociales du Mali, USSGB - Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako); Abdoulaye Maiga (LACGAA - Laboratoire d'Algèbre, de Cryptologie, de Géométrie Algébrique et Applications - UCAD - Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar [Sénégal], USSGB - Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako); Tahirou Tangara |
| Abstract: | In Mali, facing a major socio-economic challenge characterized by an official unemployment rate of 8% and a young population (67% under 24 years, UNICEF, 2021), this study analyzes the causes and consequences of unemployment between 1991 and 2022. Despite appreciable economic growth before 2020 (average annual growth of 5%, World Bank, 2020), the country struggles to generate significant employment, especially for the youth and women. The aim of this paper is to deeply examine the impacts of demographic, educational, and economic variables on the job market. Adopting an econometric methodology, the study utilizes analyses of stationarity, cointegration, and an error correction model (ECM). The results indicate that growth alone is insufficient to significantly reduce unemployment, highlighting the need for education aligned with market needs and political stability to stimulate employment. In conclusion, the study recommends targeted reforms to improve employability and promote inclusive economic growth, adapted to the specific realities of Mali. |
| Abstract: | Résumé Dans un Mali confronté à un défi socio-économique majeur, caractérisé par un taux de chômage officiel de 8% et une population jeune (67% de moins de 24 ans, UNICEF, 2021), cette étude analyse les causes et les conséquences du chômage entre 1991 et 2022. En dépit d'une croissance économique appréciable avant 2020 (5% en moyenne annuelle, Banque Mondiale, 2020), le pays peine à générer un emploi significatif, surtout pour les jeunes et les femmes. L'objectif de cet article est d'examiner en profondeur les impacts des variables démographiques, éducatives et économiques sur le marché du travail. Adoptant une méthodologie économétrique, l'étude utilise des analyses de stationnarité, de cointégration et un modèle de correction d'erreur (ECM). Les résultats indiquent que la croissance seule ne suffit pas à réduire le chômage de manière significative, soulignant la nécessité d'une éducation alignée sur les besoins du marché et de la stabilité politique pour stimuler l'emploi. En conclusion, l'étude recommande des réformes ciblées pour améliorer l'employabilité et favoriser une croissance économique inclusive, adaptée aux réalités spécifiques du Mali. Mots clés : Chômage ; Croissance économique ; Éducation et employabilité ; Stabilité politique ; Mali. Classification JEL : J64 ; O11 ; J24 ; O17 ; C32. Type de l'article : Article empirique Abstract In Mali, facing a major socio-economic challenge characterized by an official unemployment rate of 8% and a young population (67% under 24 years, UNICEF, 2021), this study analyzes the causes and consequences of unemployment between 1991 and 2022. Despite appreciable economic growth before 2020 (average annual growth of 5%, World Bank, 2020), the country struggles to generate significant employment, especially for the youth and women. The aim of this paper is to deeply examine the impacts of demographic, educational, and economic variables on the job market. Adopting an econometric methodology, the study utilizes analyses of stationarity, cointegration, and an error correction model (ECM). The results indicate that growth alone is insufficient to significantly reduce unemployment, highlighting the need for education aligned with market needs and political stability to stimulate employment. In conclusion, the study recommends targeted reforms to improve employability and promote inclusive economic growth, adapted to the specific realities of Mali. Keywords: Unemployment; Economic Growth; Education and Employability; Political Stability; Mali. JEL Classification : J64 ; O11 ; J24 ; O17 ; C32. Type of Article: Empirical Research |
| Keywords: | Chômage Croissance économique Éducation et employabilité Stabilité politique Mali. Classification JEL : J64 O11 J24 O17 C32 Unemployment Economic Growth Education and Employability Political Stability Mali. JEL Classification : J64 O11 J24 O17 C32, Chômage, Croissance économique, Éducation et employabilité, Stabilité politique, Mali. Classification JEL : J64, O11, J24, O17, C32 Unemployment, Economic Growth, Education and Employability, Political Stability, Mali. JEL Classification : J64, C32 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04511919&r=inv |
| By: | Nick James; Max Menzies |
| Abstract: | This paper develops new mathematical techniques to identify temporal shifts among a collection of US equities partitioned into a new and more detailed set of market sectors. Although conceptually related, our three analyses reveal distinct insights about financial markets, with meaningful implications for investment managers. First, we explore a variety of methods to identify nonlinear shifts in market sector structure and describe the mathematical connection between the measure used and the captured phenomena. Second, we study network structure with respect to our new market sectors and identify meaningfully connected sector-to-sector mappings. Finally, we conduct a series of sampling experiments over different sample spaces and contrast the distribution of Sharpe ratios produced by long-only, long-short and short-only investment portfolios. In addition, we examine the sector composition of the top-performing portfolios for each of these portfolio styles. In practice, the methods proposed in this paper could be used to identify regime shifts, optimally structured portfolios, and better communities of equities. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2403.15163&r=inv |
| By: | Samuel Pienknagura |
| Abstract: | Curbing carbon emissions to meet the targets set in the Paris Agreement requires the deployment of low carbon technologies (LCTs) at a global scale. This paper assesses the role of climate and trade policies in fostering LCT diffusion through trade. Leveraging a comprehensive database of climate policies and a new database identifying trade in low carbon technologies and the tariffs applied to these goods, this paper shows that the introduction of new climate policies has a positive and significant impact on LCT imports. Zooming into specific climate policies, the paper finds that, except for non-binding ones, all climate policies stimulate LCT imports. The paper also highlights the role of trade policies as an engine of LCT diffusion—reductions in tariffs applied on LCT goods have a sizeable impact on LCT imports. On the flip side, results suggest that more protectionist measures would impede the spread of low-carbon technologies. |
| Keywords: | Climate policies; trade; low carbon technologies; technological diffusion. |
| Date: | 2024–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/075&r=inv |
| By: | Christopher F Baum (Boston College); Andrés Garcia-Suaza (Facultad de Economía, Universidad del Rosario); Miguel Henry (QuantEcon Research); Jesús Otero (Facultad de Economía, Universidad del Rosario) |
| Abstract: | Since the initial outbreak of COVID-19 in the United States, researchers from a variety of scientific disciplines have sought to understand the factors influencing the evolu- tion of cases and fatalities. This paper proposes a two-stage econometric modeling approach to analyze a range of socioeconomic, demographic, health, epidemiological, climate, pollution, and political factors as potential drivers of the spread of COVID- 19 across waves and counties in the United States. The two-step modeling strategy allows us to (i) accommodate the observed heterogeneity across waves and counties in the transmissibility of the virus, and (ii) assess the relative importance of the cross- sectional measures. We leverage the availability of daily data on confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 in counties across the 48 contiguous states and the District of Columbia, spanning a two-year period from March 2020 to March 2022. We find that socioeconomic and demographic factors generally had the greatest influence on the transmissibility of the virus and the associated mortality risk, with health and climate factors playing a lesser role. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, coronavirus, geographic heterogeneity, covariate selection |
| JEL: | C13 C21 R15 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–04–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:1067&r=inv |
| By: | Adam Brzezinski; Nuno Palma; François R. Velde |
| Abstract: | Debates about the nature and economic role of money are mostly informed by evidence from the 20th century, but money has existed for millennia. We argue that there are many lessons to be learned from monetary history that are relevant for current topics of policy relevance. The past acts as a source of evidence on how money works across different situations, helping to tease out features of money that do not depend on one time and place. A close reading of history also offers testing grounds for models of economic behavior and can thereby guide theories on how money is transmitted to the real economy. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, monetary history, natural experiments, policy experiments, identification in macroeconomics |
| JEL: | E40 E50 N10 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:man:allwps:0004&r=inv |
| By: | Fischer-Weckemann, Björn; Ye, Han |
| Abstract: | Um die Finanzierung des Rentensystems bei zunehmender Erhöhung des Alters in der Gesellschaft zu stabilisieren und den Fachkräftemangel zu verringern, werden immer wieder Erhöhungen des Renteneintrittsalters diskutiert. Gleichzeitig hat die Politik staatliche Anreize zur privaten Altersvorsorge - etwa mit der Riester-Rente - eingeführt, um die verfügbaren Einkommen im Rentenalter zu verbessern. Bislang ist jedoch noch wenig darüber bekannt, wie Haushalte beim Sparen für das Alter auf Veränderungen des Renteneintrittsalters reagieren. In einer neuen Studie des ZEW Mannheim in Kooperation mit der Universität Mannheim und dem DIW Berlin wird untersucht, welchen Effekt eine Erhöhung des Renteneintrittsalters für Frauen für die Sparquote der jeweils betroffenen Haushalte hat. So führt eine Erhöhung des Renteneintrittsalters für Frauen dazu, dass diese planen, länger zu arbeiten. Das sorgt bei Haushalten mit verheirateten Frauen für ein höheres erwartetes Lebenseinkommen und höheren Beiträgen in die Rentenkasse, was mehr verfügbares Einkommen im Ruhestand zur Folge hat. Solche Haushalte erhöhen während der Erwerbsphase ihren Konsum und verringern die monatliche Sparquote um geschätzte 1, 5 Prozentpunkte. Die Studie verdeutlicht ferner, dass die betroffenen Haushalte aufgrund der höheren Gesamtverdienste trotz der vorübergehenden Verringerung der Sparquote in der Summe nach der Verrentung über ein höheres Einkommen verfügen. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewpbs:289480&r=inv |
| By: | D. Louis; C. Lombart (Audencia Business School) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of a water brand's CSR message highlighting the brand's environmental concerns on brand-related variables (attitude towards the brand and CSR) and consumer-related variables (consumer efforts to adopt sustainable behaviours and well-being). A research model is proposed, and the relationships postulated are tested on 414 French consumers. The study establishes the effectiveness of this kind of CSR messaging in influencing French consumers to purchase and recommend a particular brand. It then shows the direct and indirect ways in which a brand's CSR messaging can improve consumers' behavioural intentions (i.e. intentions to purchase the brand's products and to recommend the brand and/or its products). It also underscores that brand-related variables contribute to increasing brands', and thus companies', business performance, whereas consumer-related variables contribute to increasing their social performance. Finally, the REBUS-PLS method emphasises the existence of several consumer groups and identifies the core target customer groups on which companies should focus their communication efforts. |
| Keywords: | CSR, CSR message, sustainable behaviours, purchase intentions, well-being |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04386727&r=inv |
| By: | Christopher J. Waller |
| Date: | 2024–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgsq:97977&r=inv |
| By: | Nicolas de Roos; Alexander Matros; Vladimir Smirnov |
| Abstract: | We consider T -round elimination tournaments where players have fixed and equal endowments. We establish conditions for the existence and uniqueness of a symmetric equilibrium for a general class of elimination tournaments. We provide examples illustrating the existence of multiple equilibria. Additionally, we show how equilibrium depends on the prizes scheme, and demonstrate that the winner-take-all prize scheme ensures equal resource allocation across all rounds. |
| Keywords: | Elimination tournaments; Fixed resources. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:syd:wpaper:2024-06&r=inv |
| By: | Daniel Aaronson; Mark Borgschulte; Sunny Liu; Bhashkar Mazumder |
| Abstract: | Does education lead to political engagement? The empirical literature is mixed. Theory suggests economic context matters. Individuals unable to take advantage of education in the labor market are more likely to engage in political activity. We find support for this channel during the rapid expansion of NAACP branches in the South around WWII. Branch growth was stronger where Black workers were denied returns to schooling due to Jim Crow occupational discrimination. We further show that a pre-1931 large-scale school construction program caused greater NAACP activity during the 1940s and 1950s when many former students were in their prime working years. |
| Keywords: | Education; Human capital |
| JEL: | I26 J7 N32 |
| Date: | 2024–02–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:97997&r=inv |
| By: | Marcella Alsan; Arkey M. Barnett; Peter Hull; Crystal Yang |
| Abstract: | A longstanding and influential view in U.S. correctional policy is that “nothing works” when it comes to rehabilitating incarcerated individuals. We revisit this hypothesis by studying an innovative law-enforcement-led program launched in the county jail of Flint, Michigan: Inmate Growth Naturally and Intentionally Through Education (IGNITE). We develop an instrumental variable approach to estimate the effects of IGNITE exposure, which leverages quasi-random court delays that cause individuals to spend more time in jail both before and after the program’s launch. Holding time in jail fixed, we find that one additional month of IGNITE exposure reduces within-jail misconduct by 49% and reduces three-month recidivism by 18%, with the recidivism effects growing over time. Surveys of staff and community members, along with administrative test score records and within-jail text messages, suggest that cultural change and improved literacy and numeracy scores are key contributing mechanisms. |
| JEL: | C26 I26 K4 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32282&r=inv |
| By: | Jules Gazeaud (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Nausheen Khan (World Bank Group); Eric Mvukiyehe (Duke University [Durham]); Olivier Sterck (UA - University of Antwerp, University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | Strong gender and social norms limit women's opportunities and labor market outcomes in the Middle East and North Africa. Empowering women in these settings is a key priority, and one typical policy response involves using cash grants and training programs to improve women's situation. In a recent paper (Gazeaud et al. 2023), we set up a randomized experiment in Tunisia to explore whether inviting women to bring their partners to financial training, combined with an unrestricted cash grant, changed the program's impacts. |
| Abstract: | L'autonomisation des femmes est une priorité au Moyen-Orient et en Afrique du Nord. De nombreux travaux académiques suggèrent qu'une approche efficace est l'utilisation de subventions monétaires et de formations financières. Dans un récent article (Gazeaud et al. 2023), nous utilisons une expérience randomisée en Tunisie pour tester si l'implication des conjoints est bénéfique. |
| Keywords: | Cash Transfers, Financial Training, Gender Roles, Employment |
| Date: | 2024–03–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04523672&r=inv |
| By: | Pétronille Rème-Harnay (AME-SPLOTT - Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports et Travail - Université Gustave Eiffel, AME - Département Aménagement, Mobilités et Environnement - Université Gustave Eiffel) |
| Keywords: | chauffeurs-livreurs, travail, sous-traitance, territorialisation |
| Date: | 2024–01–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04495521&r=inv |
| By: | Nardy Antunes, Davi José; Tunes Mazon, Marilia; Cardoso de Mello, João Manuel |
| Abstract: | The extraordinary technological progress in recent decades rekindles the questions raised by John M. Keynes in Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren, especially about its emancipatory potential. Economic development has rendered work almost irrelevant for social reproduction and wealth generation in the 21st century, by reducing its necessity to produce our existence. It has also made human emancipation possible, expanding freedom and leisure time, creating room for a good life – as Keynes had envisioned through the lens of the ancient Greeks – rich in love, friendship, beauty, and the pursuit of truth. However, overcoming the economic problem seems distant politically. This paper discusses two central issues. The first is the corporate restructuring that has taken place in recent decades, characterized by de-conglomeration and rentism, which has shaped a new international division of labor. Under the logic of “shareholder value”, large corporations have focused on their core business, reduced their productive investments, and prioritized the financial appreciation of their stocks and dividend distribution. Technological monopolization and its private appropriation have led to material abundance for only a small portion of the wealthy and their associates, driven by consumerism and waste, especially in affluent countries. The second issue is related to the impact of the development of productive forces on the rich countries’ labor markets, leading to the exclusion of increasingly larger segments of the population, subject to structural unemployment and deteriorating living conditions. In a neoliberal political order, technological advancement has pushed growing portions of the population into serving the wealthy, the only remaining activity that expands job opportunities while exacerbating social inequality. |
| Keywords: | technological progress; business restructuring; labor market |
| JEL: | O14 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120397&r=inv |
| By: | Pierre-Loup Beauregard |
| Abstract: | Gentrification is associated with rapid demographic changes within inner-city neighborhoods. While many fear that gentrification drives low-income people from their homes and communities, there is limited evidence of the consequences of these changes. I use Canadian administrative tax files to track the movements of incumbent workers and their income trajectory as their neighborhood gentrifies. I exploit the timing at which neighborhoods gentrify in a matched staggered event-study framework. I find no evidence of displacement effects, even for low socioeconomic status households. In fact, families living in gentrifying neighborhoods are more likely to stay longer. I suggest that this might be related to tenant rights protection laws. When they endogenously decide to leave, low-income families do not relocate to worse neighborhoods. Finally, I find no adverse effects on their income trajectory, suggesting no repercussions on their labor market outcomes. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2403.10614&r=inv |
| By: | Bridget Kauma (University of Sussex); Giordano Mion (ESSEC Business School) |
| Keywords: | Firm-level dataset, Merging, BSD, FAME, VAT, FICUS, FARE, Productivity, Markups, UK, France, regional disparities, density |
| JEL: | R12 D24 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anj:wpaper:039&r=inv |
| By: | Nardy Antunes, Davi José; Tunes Mazon, Marilia |
| Abstract: | The thesis of this paper is that the conception of liberal democracy developed by Schumpeter and consecrated by American political science has always been characterized by concealing existing power structures, presuming that the political system is impervious to pressures from the economy and society. The economic, social, political, and cultural transformations of recent decades have undermined the remaining assumptions that supported liberal democracy. A true simulacrum, the political system has become a dictatorship of the rich. This work highlights two aspects of this process. The unprecedented concentration of capital and power in the hands of a financial oligarchy has eliminated power alternatives, imposing its interests through control of the mass media and suppressing the debate on the great destinies of societies. At the same time, recent technological changes, along with neoliberal policies, have disorganized the labor market and the very structure of classes by eliminating numerous jobs and careers and turning work into an appendix of the social reproduction process, where jobs are intermittent and task-based. The result has been the re-emergence of a mass of rootless, undifferentiated, and depoliticized individuals with no capacity to understand contemporary political situations and organize in defense of their interests. These are the basis for the resurgence of fascist trends in contemporary societies. |
| Keywords: | Democracy, Neoliberalism, and Financial Oligarchy |
| JEL: | B31 N2 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120398&r=inv |
| By: | Emre Oral; Simon Rabaté; Arthur Seibold |
| Abstract: | We study the influence of family members, neighbors and coworkers on retirement behavior. To estimate causal retirement spillovers between individuals, we exploit a pension reform in the Netherlands that creates exogenous variation in peers’ retirement ages, and we use administrative data on the full Dutch population. We find large spillovers in couples, primarily due to women reacting to their husband’s retirement choices. Consistent with homophily in social interactions, the influence of the average sibling, neighbor and coworker is modest, but sizable spillovers emerge between similar individuals in these groups. Additional evidence suggests both leisure complementarities and the transmission of social norms as mechanisms behind retirement spillovers. Our findings imply that pension reforms have a large social multiplier, amplifying their overall impact on retirement behavior by 40%. |
| Keywords: | retirement, pension reform, social networks, spillover, peer effects |
| JEL: | D91 H55 J26 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10999&r=inv |
| By: | Haihao Lu; Luyang Zhang |
| Abstract: | Sponsored listing is one of the major revenue sources for many prominent online marketplaces, such as Amazon, Walmart, and Alibaba. When consumers visit a marketplace's webpage for a specific item, in addition to that item, the marketplace might also display a ranked listing of sponsored items from various third-party sellers. These sellers are charged an advertisement fee if a user purchases any of the sponsored items from this listing. Determining how to rank these sponsored items for each incoming visit is a crucial challenge for online marketplaces, a problem known as sponsored listings ranking (SLR). The major difficulty of SLR lies in balancing the trade-off between maximizing the overall revenue and recommending high-quality and relevant ranked listings. While a more relevant ranking may result in more purchases and consumer engagement, the marketplace also needs to take account of the potential revenue when making ranking decisions. Due to the latency requirement and historical reasons, many online marketplaces use score-based ranking algorithms for SLR optimization. Alternatively, recent research also discusses obtaining the ranking by solving linear programming (LP). In this paper, we collaborate with a leading online global marketplace and conduct a series of field experiments to compare the performance of the score-based ranking algorithms and the LP-based algorithms. The field experiment lasted for $19$ days, which included $329.3$ million visits in total. We observed that the LP-based approach improved all major metrics by $1.80\%$ of revenue, $1.55\%$ of purchase, and $1.39\%$ of the gross merchandise value (GMV), compared to an extremely-tuned score-based algorithm that was previously used in production by the marketplace. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2403.14862&r=inv |
| By: | Michael Kalkbrener; Natalie Packham |
| Abstract: | We develop a model for credit rating migration that accounts for the impact of economic state fluctuations on default probabilities. The joint process for the economic state and the rating is modelled as a time-homogeneous Markov chain. While the rating process itself possesses the Markov property only under restrictive conditions, methods from Markov theory can be used to derive the rating process' asymptotic behaviour. We use the mathematical framework to formalise and analyse different rating philosophies, such as point-in-time (PIT) and through-the-cycle (TTC) ratings. Furthermore, we introduce stochastic orders on the bivariate process' transition matrix to establish a consistent notion of "better" and "worse" ratings. Finally, the construction of PIT and TTC ratings is illustrated on a Merton-type firm-value process. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2403.14868&r=inv |
| By: | Diane Coyle (Bennett Institute for Public Policy, University of Cambridge); Ayantola Alayande (Bennett Institute for Public Policy, University of Cambridge) |
| Keywords: | Investment, UK investment, G7 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anj:wpaper:040&r=inv |