|
on Investment |
| By: | Lee, Sul-Ki (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | South Korea's active hydrogen industry policy has fueled significant growth, with the number of firms increasing 56 percent by 2021 and industry-wide revenue rising 474 percent. Participation by large corporations led to this rapid expansion, but our analysis identifies further key steps: 1) developing and localizing core materials and technologies to transform the industry into a new growth engine, and 2) incentivizing small and medium enterprises to participate, sustaining the momentum. This study proposes two key policy actions to strengthen the position of the Korean hydrogen industry: 1) foster targeted demand, particularly in the mobility sector, and 2) bolster the supply chains of core materials for hydrolysis and fuel cells. |
| Keywords: | hydrogen; hydrogen energy; alternative energy; renewable energy; green hydrogen; hydrogen policy; hydrogen industry; hydrogen fuel cells; transportation industry; hydrogen supply chains; Korea; KIET |
| JEL: | Q41 Q42 Q48 Q55 Q58 |
| Date: | 2023–11–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:2023_022&r=inv |
| By: | Lee, Jae Yoon (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Lee, Go Eun (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | The steel industry, which has been pivotal to the growth of the Korean manufacturing sector, remains a pillar of the Korean economy amid an ongoing transition into an advanced economy driven by cutting-edge technologies and services. As climate change looms as the predominant issue on almost all countries’ policy radar, however, the Korean steel industry faces significant challenges ahead, with rising pressure to achieve environmental sustainability. In this report, we analyze the structure and characteristics of the steel industry and its value chain, comparing its competitiveness to international counterparts with a view toward identifying implications for policy that might enhance the competitiveness of the Korean steel industry. Korea is the world’s fourth-largest steelmaker. But despite this, Korean steelmakers cannot rest on their laurels, and should strive to maintain their global position by accelerating electric-arc furnace production and shifting toward a low-carbon, high-value-added structure. In this paper we highlight the need for developing eco-friendly technologies such as hydrogen-based reduction methods, boosting product and value chain competitiveness, and securing robust legal, institutional, and infrastructure investment to ensure a sustainable future for the industry. |
| Keywords: | steel; steel industry; climate change; emissions; greenhouse gases; sustainability; electric arc furnaces; electric arc steel; green steel; hydrogen reduction |
| JEL: | L61 Q01 Q54 Q55 Q56 |
| Date: | 2023–12–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:2023_020&r=inv |
| By: | Bing, Hyun Ji (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | With the age of petroleum seemingly drawing to an end, the political and economic landscape of the Middle East is undergoing a rocky transition. Saudi Arabia had long been a passive foreign policy player, reliant for nearly a century on the military assurance of Washington. But it recently has shifted its approach, increasing cooperation with China and venturing more actively into various matters of diplomacy. Qatar, the traditional mediator and peacekeeper in the Middle East, maintains perfunctory relations with its neighbors, but in fact faces growing threats and intensifying regional rivalries. Qatar and Saudi Arabia have announced their respective visions for the future, inviting the rest of the world to join. Another boom in the Middle East would be a boon for the South Korean economy, but there lie many obstacles on this path. To cooperate successfully with these oil-rich Middle Eastern states, Korea needs to closely monitor the changing state of affairs and power dynamics in the region and develop a bespoke approach. Korean firms and policymakers need to understand the divergent needs of the region’s major players down to the last detail, and carve out niches in which they may succeed. Early success is crucial to continued cooperation in the region, and so the Korean government needs to do its part to lay the groundwork for effective partnerships between Middle Eastern countries and Korean businesses. |
| Keywords: | oil; petroleum; Middle East; petropolitics; Qatar; Saudi Arabia; UAE; China; power dynamics; regional dynamics; Korea; KIET |
| JEL: | F01 F50 F52 O13 Q35 Q37 |
| Date: | 2023–11–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:2023_021&r=inv |
| By: | Alexandre Janiak; Jonathan Rojas Hepburn |
| Abstract: | We study the macroeconomic impact of raising the minimum wage on the labor market and the distribution of wealth, with particular emphasis on the presence of labor market risk and how the minimum wage can potentially shape such risk. Building on the empirical observation of substantial wealth heterogeneity among minimum-wage workers, we set up a model with uninsurable idiosyncratic income risk, search frictions, and Nash bargaining. Our quantitative exercises suggest important non linearities on the impact of minimum-wage increases on the wealth distribution: while a moderate increase has little effect on job creation, slightly compresses the wage distribution, and exerts little impact on the distribution of wealth, a larger increase can have a non-negligible labor-market impact and generate more wealth inequality. This latter effect is mainly due to the enhancement of precautionary-savings motives among richer workers caused by the increased risk of job separation, which becomes stronger for wealthier individuals likely to earn the minimum wage in the future. We show that this precautionary-savings channel is quantitatively more important than the more traditional inequality channel, according to which wealth inequality rises because the fraction of the population earning a wage falls. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ioe:doctra:570&r=inv |
| By: | Thanasis Stengos (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Guelph, Guelph ON Canada); Stelios Arvanitis (Athens University); Mehmet Pinar (Universidad de Sevilla); Nikolas Topaloglou (Athens University) |
| Abstract: | In the Frequentistic Model Averaging framework and within a linear model background, we consider averaging methodologies that extend the analysis of both the generalized Jacknife Model Averaging (JMA) and the Mallows Model Averaging (MMA) criteria in a multi-objective setting. We consider an estiÂmator arising from a stochastic dominance perspective. We also consider averÂaging estimators that emerge from the minimization of several scalarizations of the vector criterion consisting of both the MMA and the JMA criteria as well as an estimator that can be represented as a Nash bargaining solution between the competing scalar criteria. We derive the limit theory of the estiÂmators under both a correct specification and a global misspecification frameÂwork. Characterizations of the averaging estimators introduced in the context of conservative optimization are also provided. Monte Carlo experiments sugÂgest that the averaging estimators proposed here occasionally provide with bias and/or MSE/MAE reductions. An empirical application using data from growth theory suggests that our model averaging methods assign relatively higher weights towards the traditional Solow type growth variables, yet they do not seem to exclude regressors that underpin the importance of factors like geography or institutions. |
| Keywords: | frequentistic model averaging, Jacknife MA, Mallows MA, multiÂobjective optimization, stochastic dominance, approximate bound, £P-scalarization, Nash bargaining solution, growth regressions, core regressors, auxiliary regresÂsors. |
| JEL: | C51 C52 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gue:guelph:2024-01&r=inv |
| By: | Bernard Claverie (IDC - Institut de Cognitique - Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Cognitique, EA-487 - Laboratoire de Sciences Cognitives - Université Bordeaux Segalen - Bordeaux 2, ENSC - Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Cognitique - Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux, IMS - Laboratoire de l'intégration, du matériau au système - UB - Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 - Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, HEAL - Human engineering for Aerospace Laboratory - THALES [France]); Baptiste Prébot (ENSC - Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Cognitique - Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux) |
| Abstract: | Cognitive Warfare is defined in different ways, and the main approaches concern social phenomena, largely collective and shared communication, and orient attention on target groups or societies. However, based on information physics technologies and artificial intelligence, the targeting aspect of cognitive warfare differs in that it focuses on the cognitive skills of the victims' brains, whose functioning is altered in this way. |
| Abstract: | La guerre cognitive est définie de différentes manières, et les principales approches concernent les phénomènes sociaux, de communication largement collective et partagée, et mobilisent l'attention sur des groupes ou des sociétés cibles. Néanmoins, s'appuyant sur les technologies de la physique de l'information et de l'intelligence artificielle, un volet de ciblage de la guerre cognitive se différencie en abordant l'action sur des niveaux de compétences cognitives du cerveau des victimes dont le fonctionnement est ainsi altéré. |
| Keywords: | influence, brain, cognition, intelligence, cognitive warfare, psychological warfare, neurotechnology, Cerveau, influence numérique, guerre cognitive, Influence |
| Date: | 2024–02–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04475734&r=inv |
| By: | Effrosyni Adamopoulou; Elisabetta Olivieri; Eleftheria Triviza |
| Abstract: | This study explores the long-run effects of a temporary scarcity of a consumption good on preferences towards that good once the shock is over. Specifically, we focus on individuals who were children during World War II and assess the consequences of the temporary drop in meat availability they experienced early in life. To this end, we combine new hand-collected historical data on the number of livestock at the local level with microdata on eating habits, health outcomes, and food consumption expenditures. By exploiting cohort and regional variation in a difference-in-differences estimation, we show that individuals who as children were more exposed to meat scarcity tend to consume relatively more meat and spend more on food during late adulthood. Consistent with medical studies on the side effects of meat overconsumption, we also find that these individuals have a higher probability of being obese, having poor self-perceived health, and developing cancer. The effects are larger for women and persist intergenerationally, as the adult children of mothers who experienced meat scarcity similarly tend to overconsume meat. Our results point towards a behavioral channel, where early-life shocks shape eating habits, food consumption, and adult health. |
| Keywords: | preferences, food consumption, early life experiences, gender differences |
| JEL: | D12 I10 N44 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2021_276v2&r=inv |
| By: | Pica-Téllez, Andrés; Cid, Francisca; Ferrer, Jimy; Francos, Martin; Dishmey, Yanna |
| Abstract: | Este documento, que forma parte de un conjunto de estudios nacionales realizados por la División de Desarrollo Sostenible y Asentamientos Humanos de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) en apoyo a los sistemas nacionales de inversión pública de América Latina y el Caribe, presenta la estimación del precio social del carbono para la República Dominicana. En el documento se incluyen un breve análisis sobre la conveniencia de usar el precio social del carbono como parte de la evaluación de los proyectos de inversión y opciones metodológicas para definir ese precio. Se dan a conocer distintas experiencias internacionales sobre su uso y algunos valores sugeridos de precios sociales del carbono estimados por organismos internacionales. Tomando en cuenta las características de cada metodología, sus ventajas y desventajas, sus necesidades de información y la disponibilidad en el país, se seleccionó como mejor alternativa el costo social del carbono para la República Dominicana. Del estudio surgen recomendaciones para utilizar un precio social del carbono de 26 dólares de 2021 por tonelada de carbono. Además, se realiza una estimación preliminar de los valores proyectados para 2025 y 2030, sobre la base del modelo dinámico integrado de cambio climático y economía (Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy -DICE) y el análisis de políticas del efecto invernadero (Policy Analysis of Greenhouse Effect -PAGE), usando la tasa de descuento social decreciente. |
| Date: | 2024–01–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:68810&r=inv |
| By: | Sehnbruch, Kirsten; Apablaza, Mauricio; Foster, James |
| Abstract: | Job quality is becoming a higher policy priority among governments in both developing and advanced economies. In public policy and economics a ‘good’ job tends to mean a well-paid job. Other social sciences, however, recognise that employment is a multidimensional phenomenon that requires careful conceptualisation and measurement to account for other employment conditions that also have a significant impact on the wellbeing of workers. These include job stability, types of contracts, and autonomy levels. This paper summarises recent research on this topic, addresses issues of data availability, and presents empirical evidence from both Latin America and Europe to show how multidimensional deprivations or clustered disadvantages in the labour market can be measured by means of a dedicated measure of poor-quality employment. It illustrates how, in both regions, this concept better captures deprivation in labour markets than simpler indicators of wages or informal employment, which are unidimensional and do not reflect the fact that many workers are deprived in more than one aspect of their employment conditions. This conclusion should matter to public policy, which tends to focus on different aspects of deprivation separately, if at all, without considering that multidimensional deprivations compound each other and thus affect the well-being of workers very negatively. |
| Keywords: | multidimensional measurement; capability approach; labour markets; job quality; poor-quality of employment; social protection systems; social security; welfare states; GP1\100170 |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2024–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122222&r=inv |
| By: | Susann Rohwedder (RAND); Péter Hudomiet (RAND); Michael D. Hurd (RAND) |
| Abstract: | We study out-of-pocket (OOP) medical expenditure risk of the U.S. population ages 55 and older using data from the Health and Retirement Study and its supplemental survey on household spending. We document trends in individual-level OOP spending from 1998 to 2018, both at the median and 95th percentile, showing a large increase until 2004, followed by rapid declines, so that 2018 OOP was less than 1998 OOP spending. We show how these changes impacted the budget share of OOP as a fraction of total household spending and analyze how households adjust the composition of their spending as OOP expenses vary. Because the distribution of OOP expenses is skewed, households face a non-negligible risk of incurring a large expense. We examined the extent to which OOP medical expenditures contribute to economic hardship among older households, as measured by food insecurity and skipping medications because of cost. We found a weak relationship with respect to food insecurity, suggesting that government programs, like Medicaid, help protect against OOP risk leading to such as an extreme form of hardship. However, we obtained statistically significant and economically meaningful effects with respect to medication insecurity: An increase from the 10th to the 90th percentile in OOP spending would increase the probability of medication insecurity by about 15 percentage points. When asked about their perceived OOP risk, individuals tend to substantially overestimate the chances of large OOP spending, although less so at advanced ages; prior experience with OOP expenses seems to lead to more accurate expectations. |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrr:papers:wp457&r=inv |
| By: | Runst, Petrik; Thomä, Jörg |
| Abstract: | The literature has established that young firms engaged in R&D exhibit a pronounced asymmetry in their economic performance, with high premia at the upper end of the conditional growth distribution. We argue that this binary view - i.e., R&D-oriented firms versus all others - is somewhat limited. In particular, non-R&D innovation activity should be treated as an important category in its own right, and that its sui generis mode of learning is reflected in a distinct growth pattern. We examine data from the German IAB/ZEW Start-up Panel. Our evidence suggests that young non-R&D innovators also exhibit asymmetric and improved economic performance relative to non-innovators, although less so than R&D firms. Our results also suggest that firms engaged in non-R&D innovation grow in a less risky and costly way than R&D innovators, and that a young firm's decision whether to engage in R&D for the purpose of innovation and growth can therefore usefully be understood as being driven by a specific risk-return trade-off. |
| Keywords: | Firm growth, R&D, non-R&D innovation, Modes of innovation |
| JEL: | D21 L11 L25 L26 O31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifhwps:285360&r=inv |
| By: | Alan Fairlie Reinoso (Departamento de Economía de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.); Paula Paredes Quintana (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.) |
| Abstract: | La Comunidad Andina es uno de los procesos de integración pioneros en la región, y ha tenido diferentes fases de auge y crisis. En este trabajo se identificó la evolución de la relación bilateral de los países miembros en los últimos 20 años, a través de la elaboración de los principales indicadores de comercio. Con la construcción de esta evidencia empírica, se busca contribuir al esfuerzo de convergencia, el desarrollo de cadenas regionales productivas más diversificadas y con mayor valor agregado. Y, se fortalezca así la competitividad de la región, y se avance en la profundización de la integración regional. JEL Classification-JE: F13, F15. |
| Keywords: | COMPLEMENTARIEDAD, Comunidad Andina, Convergencia, Indicadores comerciales, Integración. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00517&r=inv |
| By: | Tommaso Gasparini; Vivien Lewis; Stéphane Moyen; Stefania Villa |
| Abstract: | Increases in firm default risk raise the default probability of banks while decreasing output and inflation in US data. To rationalize the empirical evidence, we analyse firm risk shocks in a New Keynesian model where entrepreneurs and banks engage in a loan contract and both are subject to default risk. In the model, a wave of corporate defaults leads to losses on banks' balance sheets; banks respond by selling assets and reducing credit provision. A highly leveraged banking sector exacerbates the contractionary effects of firm defaults. We show that high minimum capital requirements jointly implemented with a countercyclical capital buffer are effective in dampening the adverse consequences of firm risk shocks. |
| Keywords: | Bank Default, Capital Buffer, Firm Risk, Macroprudential Policy |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 E61 G28 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:944&r=inv |
| By: | Busch, Berthold; Sommer, Julian; Sultan, Samina |
| Abstract: | Spätestens seit dem russischen Angriffskrieg in der Ukraine und dem Beschluss, Beitrittsgespräche mit dem Land zu eröffnen, hat das Thema Erweiterung für die Europäische Union (EU) wieder deutlich an Bedeutung gewonnen. Die strategische Dimension einer Erweiterung tritt durch die geopolitische Lage in den Vordergrund. Durch eine Erweiterung könnte zudem der Binnenmarkt an Attraktivität gewinnen. Einhergehen mit der Erweiterungsdebatte muss aber stets auch die Frage nach der Erweiterungsfähigkeit der EU - und damit nach Reformen. Im Raum steht die Aufnahme von bis zu acht Ländern - neben der Ukraine wären dies Albanien, Bosnien Herzegowina, Georgien, Montenegro, Nordmazedonien, Serbien sowie die Republik Moldau. Dies hätte Veränderungen auf verschiedenen Ebenen zur Konsequenz. Dieser Report diskutiert die Folgen für die drei zentralen Institutionen der EU - Kommission, Rat und Parlament -und macht Reformvorschläge, um deren Arbeits- und Handlungsfähigkeit zu erhalten. Die Europäische Kommission würde gemäß der derzeitigen Regelung auf 35 Mitglieder wachsen. Es erscheint unwahrscheinlich, dass die Mitgliedstaaten auf ihr Recht, ein Kommissionsmitglied zu stellen, ganz oder zeitweise im Zuge einer Rotation verzichten werden. Daher erscheint eine stärkere Hierarchisierung der Kommission als die beste Option. Der Rat der EU entscheidet in den meisten Bereichen mit qualifizierter Mehrheit. Durch eine Erweiterung auf eine EU-35 könnte sich die wirtschaftliche Ausrichtung des Rates hin zu weniger wirtschaftlicher Freiheit verschieben. Dadurch würde es dem eher liberalen Block, zu dem auch Deutschland gehört, schwerer fallen, per Sperrminorität Entscheidungen zu verhindern oder per Mehrheitsbeschluss Entscheidungen durchzusetzen. |
| Abstract: | At the latest since the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine and the decision to open accession talks with the country, the topic of enlargement has once again become much more important for the European Union (EU). The strategic dimension of enlargement has come to the fore due to the geopolitical situation. Enlargement could also help to make the internal market more attractive. However, the enlargement debate must always go hand in hand with the question of the EU's capacity for enlargement - and thus for reform. The admission of up to eight countries is under discussion - in addition to Ukraine, these would be Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and the Republic of Moldova. This would result in changes at various levels. This report discusses the consequences for the three central institutions of the EU - Commission, Council and Parliament - and puts forth recommendations for reforms to ensure their continued efficacy. With the current framework, the European Commission would expand to encompass 35 members. IGiven the unlikelihood of member states relinquishing their right to appoint a Commissioner, a more hierarchical structure within the Commission appears to be the most viable solution. The Council of the EU predominantly operates on a system of qualified majority voting in most domains. Enlargement to an EU-35 could shift the economic focus of the Council towards less economic freedom. This would make it more difficult for the more liberal bloc, to which Germany also belongs, to prevent decisions by blocking minority or to enforce decisions by majority vote. |
| JEL: | D02 F68 O52 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:285372&r=inv |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | Human activity has transformed the planet at a pace and scale unprecedented in recorded history, causing irreversible damage to communities and ecosystems. Countries have focused their capacities on economic growth, with too little attention to externalities in terms of environmental quality. The world will not avoid catastrophic warming unless wealthy nations accelerate their reduction of own emissions and help poorer countries to do the same. North America and Europe have contributed 62 % of carbon dioxide emissions since the industrial revolution, while Africa has contributed only 3%. However, it is in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) that the impacts are most severe and the people most vulnerable. Developed countries, in their own interests, should focus on ways to help developing countries phase out fossil fuels and transition to renewable energy. However, there are tensions between richer and poorer nations over who should pay the costs of global warming. Rich countries have a responsibility to act more quickly than their low-income counterparts. Yet governments continue to subsidise the use of fossil fuels, and banks and companies still invest more in polluting industries than in climate solutions. The consumption habits of the richest 10 % of people generate three times more pollution than those of the poorest 50 %. Emerging economies such as China and India, which plan to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060 and 2070 respectively, should join the developed world in accelerating emissions reductions. It is not just the way we produce and use energy that needs to change quickly. It's the way we consume food, the way we protect nature. It's everything, everywhere, all at once. The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable, especially in SSA countries where agriculture is central to the economy. Among the top eight countries with the highest cumulative net emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use are two SSA countries, Nigeria and DR Congo. Most of these emissions are embodied in trade and are caused by consumption in regions such as Europe, the United States and China. The establishment of the Loss and Damage Fund agreed at COP27 will not be enough to turn the tide, nor will it necessarily translate into climate finance commitments, given the lack of progress in delivering the promised US$100 billion in annual climate finance from rich countries. African countries themselves need to reflect on their own strengths and step up their efforts in a timely and substantial way. |
| Keywords: | Environmental sustainability; Carbon neutrality; climate change; Carbon dioxide; environmental pollution; greenhouse gas; fossil fuel; renewable energy; Governance; European Union; highly industrialized countries; emerging economies; BRICS; Sub-Saharan Africa; South Africa; Nigeria; DR Congo; |
| JEL: | E21 E22 E23 E26 F18 F54 F64 G38 H23 H84 H87 I15 I31 K32 N17 N37 N57 O13 O44 O55 Q54 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–02–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120210&r=inv |
| By: | Lucio Gobbi; Ronny Mazzocchi; Roberto Tamborini |
| Abstract: | When inflation picks up, central banks are most concerned that the de-anchoring of inflation expectations and the ignition of wage-price spirals will trigger inflation dynamic instability. However, such scenarios do not materialize in the standard New Keynesian theoretical framework for monetary policy. Using a simulative model, we show that they can materialize upon introducing in particularly strong doses boundedly-rational expectations that de-anchor endogenously, as they are updated according to the actual inflation process, with indexed wages, and persistent inflation shocks. In these cases, a more hawkish central-bank stance on inflation expands the stability region of the system, which however remains bounded. On the other hand, the critical combinations of factors that trigger instability can be regarded as extreme in empirical terms, while in "normal times" the system is resilient to shocks and expectation de-anchoring even with more dovish monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | cost-push inflation, New Keynesian models for monetary policy, wage-price spiral, de-anchoring of inflation expectations |
| JEL: | E17 E30 E50 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10966&r=inv |
| By: | Tsuyoshi Kunihama (Department of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University); Zehang Richard Li (Department of Statistics, University of California, Santa Cruz); Samuel J. Clark (Department of Sociology, Ohio State University); Tyler H. McCormick (Department of Statistics and Department of Sociology, University of Washington) |
| Abstract: | Verbal autopsies (VAs) are extensively used to investigate the population-level distributions of deaths by cause in low-resource settings without well-organized vital statistics systems. Computer-based methods are often adopted to assign causes of death to deceased individuals based on the interview responses of their family members or caregivers. In this article, we develop a new Bayesian approach that extracts information about cause-of-death distributions from VA data considering the age- and sex-related variation in the associations between symptoms. Its performance is compared with that of existing approaches using gold-standard data from the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium. In addition, we compute the relevance of predictors to causes of death based on information-theoretic measures. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian factor models, Causes of death distribution, Multivariate data, Verbal autopsies, Survey data |
| JEL: | C11 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:266&r=inv |
| By: | Baraldi, Anna Laura; Cantabene, Claudia; De Iudicibus, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | It is well documented that organized crime heavily affects the waste management system. This paper focuses on examining the impact of Law 164/1991, one of Italy’s most stringent measures against organized crime. The law, designed to counteract suspected mafia infiltration by mandating the dissolution of city councils, is investigated for its role in reinstating a more efficient waste management system. This involves an increase in selective waste collection for recycling purposes. We exploit the staggered enforcement of Law 164/1991 to show that both the percentage and the per-capita tonnes in selective waste collection, measured for municipalities in Apulia, Calabria, Campania and Sicily, increase sharply starting from the first election after compulsory administration in dissolved municipalities compared to the control group of those never dissolved; the average treatment effect of the anti-mafia policy is measured in a 5 percentage points and 17.5 Kg increase in the percentage and in per-capita tonnes of selective waste collection, respectively. This outcome is influenced by the city council dismissal, as it severs the connections between organized crime and local politicians. The resulting refreshed pool of elected officials, characterized by lower levels of corruption, then implements policies that are unfavorable to organized crime. This leads to a more effective allocation of public funds in sectors specifically targeted by organized crime, such as waste management. |
| Keywords: | Selective waste collection, Anti-mafia policies, Staggered Diff-in-diff, Corruption |
| JEL: | C2 D73 D78 I38 K42 Q53 |
| Date: | 2023–11–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120296&r=inv |
| By: | Nicoletta Berardi |
| Abstract: | Working Paper Series no. 942. This paper investigates the interaction between financial constraints faced by firms and their price setting behaviour. We find systematic differences in the frequencies of price increases and decreases between financially constrained and unconstrained firms, consistently across several alternative proxies. Financial constraints affect price adjustments asymmetrically. When firms are financially struggling, they are more likely to increase their prices, while simultaneously exhibiting greater rigidity in lowering prices. |
| Keywords: | Producer Price Setting, Firm Financial Constraints, Customer Market |
| JEL: | E31 G30 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:942&r=inv |
| By: | Kuchler, Fred; Sweitzer, Megan; Chelius, Carolyn |
| Abstract: | U.S. food suppliers make claims about their production processes on food packaging that highlight attributes some consumers want while charging a higher price than for unlabeled products. Some labels use such claims as “USDA Organic” and “raised without antibiotics, ” which require different and more expensive production techniques than conventional agriculture. However, food suppliers can use the label that claims the food is “natural” at a relatively low cost because regulatory agencies treat the claim as meaning nothing artificial was added and the product was minimally processed. Numerous consumer food choice studies concluded that consumers equate the natural label on food with healthier food choices and more costly production practices that signify environmental stewardship. Informed by these previous studies’ findings, the authors of this report estimate the frequency with which food suppliers make the natural claim on food packaging labels. Estimates are based on scanner data and comprehensive label data. Across all foods in 2018, 16.3 percent of retail food expenditures and 16.9 percent of all items purchased (unit sales) were for foods labeled natural, whereas 11.0 percent of Universal Product Codes (UPC) in stores were labeled natural on the packaging. Expenditures for food labeled natural were larger than expenditures for foods labeled USDA Organic. Natural labels were found predominately on processed products. For example, 95.6 percent of expenditures for vitamins and meal supplements were for products labeled natural, compared with 0.5 percent of expenditures for potatoes. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Health Economics and Policy, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uerseb:340804&r=inv |
| By: | Mr. Nicolas E Magud; Samuel Pienknagura |
| Abstract: | Using individual-level survey data for both advanced economies and emerging markets spanning over 45 years for 42 countries, we show that cohorts who have had higher exposure to past inflationary episodes (levels, as well as to more persistent or to more volatile inflation), systematically express higher concerns over rising prices. The link between past high inflation exposure and expressed concerns over price stability is particularly strong when an individual’s exposure occurs in the latter part of her working-age (as in lifecycle theory). The impact of past exposure to high inflation on contemporaneous preferences over price stability increases when surveyed in the midst of high ongoing inflation and with macroeconomic instability (as measured by GDP growth volatility), but diminishes with the quality of institutions. |
| Keywords: | Price Stability; Inflation; Individual Preferences; Learning from Experience |
| Date: | 2024–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/040&r=inv |
| By: | Laura Breitkopf; Shyamal Chowdhury; Shambhavi Priyam; Hannah Schildberg-Hörisch; Matthias Sutter |
| Abstract: | We use novel data on nearly 6, 000 children and adolescents aged 6 to 16 that combine incen-tivized measures of social, time, and risk preferences with rich information on child behavior and family environment to study whether children’s economic preferences predict their behavior. Re-sults from standard regression specifications demonstrate the predictive power of children’s pref-erences for their prosociality, educational achievement, risky behaviors, emotional health, and behavioral problems. In a second step, we add information on a family’s socio-economic status, family structure, religion, parental preferences and IQ, and parenting style to capture household environment. As a result, the predictive power of preferences for behavior attenuates. We discuss implications of our findings for research on the formation of children’s preferences and behavior. |
| Keywords: | social preferences, time preferences, risk preferences, experiments with children, origins of preferences, human capital, behavior |
| JEL: | C91 D01 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10988&r=inv |
| By: | Masashi Goto (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | This early-stage study explores how traditional expert craft occupations, continuing through the pre-modern age, can maintain and transfer expert knowledge today. A literature review was conducted on Toji (Japanese sake master brewer), revealing (1) its organising with craft unions (an organizational form for craft expert occupations) after the Meiji restoration and (2) drastic changes with decreasing Toji population in the last five decades. The analysis identifies three factors that potentially contribute to the sustainability of expert craft occupation's knowledge maintenance and transfer: (a) hybrid organising integrated with the corporate and government sector, (b) formation of open communities of innovation-oriented craft workers and (c) new technologies substituting tacit human knowledge. |
| Keywords: | Craft union; Traditional craft; Occupation; Sake; Toji |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2024-07&r=inv |
| By: | Emma Aguila (University of Southern California); Zeewan Lee (University of Southern California) |
| Abstract: | Growing U.S. income inequality and the aging of Black and Hispanic populations point to greater risks of financial insecurity for older populations in coming years. Research on retirement determinants for Blacks and Hispanics is limited. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we analyze retirement determinants for Blacks and Hispanics. We link this data to the Working Trajectories file and restricted SSA individual-level files to determine Social Security wealth by race and ethnic origin. Using sociodemographic, health, and economic covariates, we construct a conditional probit model that identifies the probability a given individual will retire from the workforce over time. We find that Hispanics, Blacks, and non-Hispanic whites respond similarly to Social Security, private pension incentives, and other institutional (e.g., health insurance) influences on retirement. In their retirement decisions, non-Hispanic Blacks are not responsive to some sociodemographic characteristics (male, couple, and number of household members), but they are responsive to physical and mental health problems. Hispanics are less responsive than non-Hispanic whites to most sociodemographic characteristics (male, education, and couple) and mental health problems in their retirement decisions. Our findings for non-Hispanic whites are consistent with previous literature. Our research can inform programs and policies to improve the quality of life for older adults, especially those isolated by cultural, economic, educational, or other barriers. |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrr:papers:wp452&r=inv |
| By: | Stephan D. Whitaker |
| Abstract: | This Data Brief updates the figures that appeared in “Urban and Regional Migration Estimates: Will Your City Recover from the Pandemic?” with data for 2023:Q4 for all series. Migration estimates enable us to track which urban neighborhoods and metro areas are returning to their old migration patterns and where the pandemic has permanently shifted migration trends. |
| Keywords: | urban migration; Regional migration; COVID-19 pandemic |
| Date: | 2024–03–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:c00003:97961&r=inv |
| By: | Marc Gronwald; Sania Wadud; Kingsley Dogah |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the informational efficiency of the WTI crude oil markets using a recently proposed quantitative measure for market inefficiency. The procedure measures the extent to which observed oil price behaviour deviates from the Random Walk benchmark which represents an efficient market. The key findings are, first, that crude oil market inefficiency varies over time. Second, abrupt increases in inefficiency occur during extreme episodes such as the price downturns witnessed in 2008, 2014, and early 2020, as well as the begin of the Ukraine war in 2022. Third, the paper puts forward the interpretation of oil market inefficiency as oil market turbulence. This occurs when the quantity of information the market has to process is exceptionally high. Fourth, the paper demonstrates that oil market turbulence (or the drivers behind it) have negative macroeconomic consequences. |
| Keywords: | crude oil markets, efficient market hypothesis, quantity of information, fractional integration |
| JEL: | C22 E30 G14 Q02 Q31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10995&r=inv |
| By: | Takahiro Akita (IUJ Research Institute, International University of Japan) |
| Abstract: | This study explores the relationship between educational expansion and educational inequality through the use of hypothetical examples. It also examines the relationship empirically based on a Barro and Lee dataset on educational attainment for Asian countries and economies. If individuals without formal education are assigned 0 years of education, the education Gini coefficient is likely to decline monotonically with educational expansion. In contrast, if we assume that they receive some sort of informal education equivalent to a small amount of formal education, then the education Gini coefficient is likely to exhibit an inverted U-shaped pattern. Transforming years of education into human capital using an exponential function could lead to the Gini coefficient of human capital exhibiting an inverted U-shaped pattern with respect to human capital expansion. On the other hand, the standard deviation of education is likely to display an inverted U-shaped pattern, whether individuals without formal education are assigned 0 years of education or not. The Barro and Lee dataset reveals that the standard deviation of education follows an inverted U-shaped pattern, even when individuals without formal education are assigned 0 years of education. In contrast, the education Gini coefficient demonstrates a downward-sloping pattern when individuals without formal education are assigned 0 years of education. However, when assigning one year to individuals without formal education, the education Gini coefficient displays an inverted U-shaped pattern. These empirical observations align with the conclusions drawn from hypothetical examples. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: educational expansion, educational inequality, education Gini coefficient, inverted U-shaped pattern, human capital inequality, Asian countries and economies |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iuj:wpaper:ems_2024_02&r=inv |