|
on Investment |
| By: | Park, Ji Hye (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Korean dramas and films have secured prominent positions as the leading genres driving the hallyu wave. This owes in part to the increase in Over-The-Top (OTT) platform users during COVID-19, when audiences worldwide watched Korean dramas and films on streaming platforms in large numbers, and multinational OTT platform companies such as Netflix, Disney+, and Apple have since made substantial investments in Korean content. As competition intensifies among OTT platforms in the market, competing firms are pursuing differentiated strategies by producing and securing their own content, flooding the market with more Korean dramas and movies. Two major platforms in the OTT market, Netflix and Disney+, in particular are investing in Korean content. Moreover, these platforms provide Korean works with subtitles and dubbing in local languages, facilitating the accessibility of Korean content in foreign markets. Investments in the production of original content by global OTT platforms are exerting a significant influence on the domestic content industry as well. Domestic firms can access production funding, produce high-quality content, have their content widely distributed, and have opportunities for international expansion. However, concerns have arisen regarding IP ownership issues. Given the overreliance on substantial investments by Netflix, there are calls within the industry to prepare for an interruption of this investment. In addition, as Netflix tends to invest in larger production companies, smaller-scale production houses are seeing fewer opportunities. Establishing criteria for securing IP rights and a stable investment system within the domestic content industry is crucial to ensuring the continued creation and global expansion of Korean content to diverse international markets. |
| Keywords: | K-Dramas; K-pop; Hallyu; Korean wave; OTT; streaming platforms; Netflix; Disney; Disney+; Tving; Watcha; Wavve; Squid Game; The Glory; content industry; television industry; K-content; Korea; KIET |
| JEL: | L82 L86 |
| Date: | 2023–12–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:2023_029&r=inv |
| By: | Sangyup Choi; Jaehun Jeong; Dohyeon Park; Donghoon Yoo |
| Abstract: | Barsky and Sims (2012, AER) demonstrated, via indirect inference, that confidence innovations can be viewed as noisy signals about medium-term economic growth. They highlighted that the connection between confidence and subsequent activity, such as consumption and output, is primarily driven by news shocks about the future. We expand upon their research in two significant ways. First, we incorporate the Great Recession and ZLB episodes, and second, we employ unique state-level data to offer insights into how to interpret the relationship between consumer confidence and economic activity. Our results are still consistent with the main finding of Barsky and Sims (2012) that this relationship is predominantly driven by news about the future. |
| Keywords: | consumer confidence, news, animal spirits, Great Recession, state-level analysis |
| JEL: | E12 E21 E31 E32 E71 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2024-06&r=inv |
| By: | Dang, Hai-Anh (World Bank); Pullinger, John (Office for National Statistics, UK); Serajuddin, Umar (World Bank); Stacy, Brian (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Country statistical capacity is increasingly recognized as crucial for development, but no academic study exists that reviews the available assessment tools. We offer the first review study that fills this gap, paying particular attention to data and practical measurement challenges. We compare the World Bank's recently developed Statistical Performance Indicators and Index (SPI) with other widely used indexes such as the Open Data Inventory index (ODIN), the Global Data Barometer index (GDB), and other regional and self-assessment tools. We find that the indexes bring their own advantages regarding their data sources, number of indicators, measurement focus, coverage of country and time periods, and correlation with common development indexes. Specifically, the ODIN covers most countries, the GDB collects data through its surveys, and the SPI offers clearer mathematical foundations and somewhat stronger correlation with Sustainable Development Goals indicators. We offer further thoughts on the potential mechanisms through which these tools can bring positive impacts on economic activities and some political economy concerns, as well as future directions of development. |
| Keywords: | statistical capacity, statistical performance, statistical indicators, statistical capacity index, national statistical system |
| JEL: | C8 H00 I00 O1 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16745&r=inv |
| By: | Federico Echenique; Farzad Pourbabaee |
| Abstract: | We provide a quantitative assessment of welfare in the classical model of risk-sharing and exchange under uncertainty. We prove three kinds of results. First, that in an equilibrium allocation, the scope for improving individual welfare by a given margin (an $\ve$-improvement) vanishes as the number of states increases. Second, that the scope for a change in aggregate resources that may be distributed to enhance individual welfare by a given margin also vanishes. Equivalently: in an inefficient allocation, for a given level of resource sub-optimality (as measured by the coefficient of resource under-utilization), the possibilities for enhancing welfare by perturbing aggregate resources decrease exponentially to zero with the number of states. Finally, we consider efficient risk-sharing in standard models of uncertainty aversion with multiple priors, and show that, in an inefficient allocation, certain sets of priors shrink with the size of the state space. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.07337&r=inv |
| By: | Benjamin Monnery (EconomiX (UMR 7235), UPL, Université Paris Nanterre, CNRS, 200 avenue de la République, 92001 Nanterre cedex, France); Alexandre Chirat (EconomiX (UMR 7235), UPL, Université Paris Nanterre, CNRS, 200 avenue de la République, 92001 Nanterre cedex, France) |
| Abstract: | Western democracies experienced in recent decades a transformation of the relationship between citizens and their representatives towards greater accountability and transparency. These demands led to the emergence of new regulations and anti-corruption institutions. However, it often remains unknown whether such institutions are able to secure public trust and legitimacy in order to fulfill their mission effectively. The paper investigates this question by focusing on France, which quickly became a leader in the fight against corruption after the launch in 2013 of the High Authority for the Transparency in Public Life (HATVP). We run a survey experiment among 3, 000 citizens and 33 experts to collect their prior beliefs about political corruption, and then evaluate the impact of granting basic information on citizens’ perceptions about the effectiveness and legitimacy of the French anti-corruption agency. First, results show a large divide between the average citizen and the more optimistic experts about the dynamics of political integrity. Second, citizens have heterogeneous beliefs and those most distrustful are not only more likely to vote for populist candidates or abstain but are also the least informed about the anti-corruption agency. Third, the information provision experiment has meaningful and positive impacts on citizens’ perceptions of the HATVP, political transparency, and representative democracy. The beneficial effects are as large or even larger among the most distrustful and ill-informed citizens, and can close part of the gap with the assessments made by experts. |
| Keywords: | Political corruption; Political trust; Anti-corruption agency; Integrity; Populism; survey experiment |
| JEL: | C99 D72 M48 P37 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:afd:wpaper:2402&r=inv |
| By: | Elodie Djemai (PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine, LEDa); Yohan Renard (Universite d’Orleans, Laboratoire d’Economie d’Orleans) |
| Abstract: | We use a randomized experiment to study how a subsidy for a mosquito-repellent ointment to protect from malaria affects uptake, usage, and future demand for the product in Burkina Faso. We randomly vary the subsidy level across enumeration areas and approximately 3, 100 households are randomly allocated to one of the three groups: 0%, 50% of 100% subsidy. Our main results are that subsidies strongly and significantly increase the likelihood of acquiring a jar of mosquito-repellent ointment, and of using it on a regular basis during the rainy season. We do not find any evidence supporting heterogeneous treatment effects based on household characteristics, nor on the use of preventive measures at baseline. |
| Keywords: | Malaria, Behavior, Technology adoption, Price, Africa, Burkina Faso |
| JEL: | I12 O33 H43 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt202307&r=inv |
| By: | Timoth\'ee Fabre; Ioane Muni Toke |
| Abstract: | We propose a novel approach to marked Hawkes kernel inference which we name the moment-based neural Hawkes estimation method. Hawkes processes are fully characterized by their first and second order statistics through a Fredholm integral equation of the second kind. Using recent advances in solving partial differential equations with physics-informed neural networks, we provide a numerical procedure to solve this integral equation in high dimension. Together with an adapted training pipeline, we give a generic set of hyperparameters that produces robust results across a wide range of kernel shapes. We conduct an extensive numerical validation on simulated data. We finally propose two applications of the method to the analysis of the microstructure of cryptocurrency markets. In a first application we extract the influence of volume on the arrival rate of BTC-USD trades and in a second application we analyze the causality relationships and their directions amongst a universe of 15 cryptocurrency pairs in a centralized exchange. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.09361&r=inv |
| By: | Coady Wing; Seth M. Freedman; Alex Hollingsworth |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces the concept of a "trimmed aggregate ATT, " which is a weighted average of a set of group-time average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) parameters identified in a staggered adoption difference-in-differences (DID) design. The set of identified group-time ATTs that contribute to the aggregate is trimmed to achieve compositional balance across an event window, ensuring that comparisons of the aggregate parameter over event time reveal dynamic treatment effects and differential pre-trends rather than compositional changes. Taking the trimmed aggregate ATT as a target parameter, we investigate the performance of stacked DID estimators. We show that the most basic stacked estimator does not identify the target aggregate or any other average causal effect because it applies different implicit weights to treatment and control trends. The bias can be eliminated using corrective sample weights. We present a weighted stacked DID estimator, and show that it correctly identifies the target aggregate, providing justification for using the estimator in applied work. |
| JEL: | C01 C13 I0 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32054&r=inv |
| By: | Catherine Hausman |
| Abstract: | Economists, energy experts, and policymakers have called for accelerating investment in the U.S. electricity transmission network. Additional transmission lines could better integrate markets, reducing the total cost of electricity generation. They could also allow for the better integration of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, located in areas that traditionally did not have much generation capacity and that are far away from centers of demand. In this paper, I document the magnitude of static allocative inefficiencies induced by transmission congestion in two major U.S. electricity markets. I show that the allocative inefficiencies are rising over time, totaling more than $2 billion in 2022. Moreover, I document an important political economy dimension not yet explored in the literature: the magnitudes of gains and losses from this market integration at some individual firms is surprisingly large: four firms would have experienced a collective $1.6 billion drop in operating profits in 2022 had the market been integrated. I then tie some of these firms to reports of transmission hold-up in these markets. I argue that understanding firm-level gains and losses is just as important as understanding overall inefficiencies, particularly in an environment where incumbents may have the power to block new lines. |
| JEL: | L94 P18 Q41 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32091&r=inv |
| By: | Zhenhao Gong (Shanxi University of Finance and Economics); Min Seong Kim (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | The use of multilevel regression models is prevalent in policy analysis to estimate the effect of group level policies on individual outcomes. In order to allow for the time varying effect of group heterogeneity and the group specific impact of time effects, we propose a group interactive fixed effects approach that employs interaction terms of group factor loadings and common factors in this model. For this approach, we consider the least squares estimator and associated inference procedure. We examine their properties under the large n and fixed T asymptotics. The number of groups, G; is allowed to grow but at a slower rate. We also propose a test for the level of grouping to specify group factor loadings, and a GMM approach to address policy endogeneity with respect to idiosyncratic errors. Finally, we provide empirical illustrations of the proposed approach using two empirical examples. |
| Keywords: | endogeneity; GMM estimation; group heterogeneity; group level test; least squares estimation; panel; repeated cross-sections |
| JEL: | C12 C13 C23 C54 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2024-01&r=inv |
| By: | Poonam Munjal (National Council of Applied Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic had a severe impact on the tourism industry across the world. Be it aviation or hospitality, transportation, tour operators or eateries, every activity related to tourism was adversely affected by the pandemic in an unprecedented manner. India saw the first severe impact during the first quarter of 2020-21 when the tourism industry was severely affected, in terms of loss in tourism demand due to a significant fall in tourist arrivals. The industry saw gradual signs of recovery post-October 2020, but was hit again by the second wave during April-June 2021 and then the third wave during the period November 2021-January 2022. Given the contribution that tourism makes to the entire economy in terms of income and employment generation, it is important to do a systemic estimation of the losses caused by the pandemic so that resilient policies are put in place to address the challenges at all levels and put the tourism sector back on the path it was traversing before the pandemic. This paper presents the estimates of economic losses resulting from the changes experienced during the most critical period of the pandemic, that is, the first quarter of 2020-21, which witnessed a complete lockdown, and the subsequent two quarters, wherein the sector started showing gradual recovery following various relaxations in economic activities and travel movements. The estimates are based on the methodology which draws from the framework laid out in the Tourism Satellite Account of India, which, in turn, is based on the methodological framework recommended by the United Nations World Tourism Organisation |
| Keywords: | Pandemic COVID-19; Tourism Satellite Account; Indian Tourism; Domestic Tourism; Inbound Tourism; Tourism Direct Gross Value Added |
| JEL: | L83 Z30 Z32 O10 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:155&r=inv |
| By: | Anna Balestra (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy); Raul Caruso (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, & Centro Studi Economia Applicata (CSEA), Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy - Catholic University ‘Our Lady of Good Counsel’, Tirana, European Center of Peace Science, Integration and Cooperation (CESPIC)) |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the empirical analysis of social peace, specifically aiming to assess the suitability of an economic policy instrument for the maintenance of social peace. The contention advanced in this paper is that identifying the ratio of public education investment to military expenditure (hereafter referred to as Edumilex) serves as a pertinent instrument for fostering peaceful economic policies. To empirically evaluate this instrument, we employ a target variable serving as a measure of internal peace, structured as a concise metric of positive peace based on four pillars: (i) Health; (ii) Standard of living; (iii) Quality of institutions; (iv) Spread of violence. More precisely, we empirically estimate the impact of Edumilex on social peace, utilizing a panel comprising 85 countries spanning the years from 1990 to 2020. We utilize an Instrumental Variable approach. In particular, in the baseline estimation we employ an IV/GMM estimator. The robust and positive relationship identified in our analysis suggests the viability of Edumilex as an instrument of economic policy. This proposition constitutes a noteworthy innovation since governments commonly perceive education and military spending as distinct policy domains. However, in the light of this work, such a perspective appears flawed, as these factors both exert influence on the levels of peace within a society. |
| Keywords: | Peace, Education, Military Expenditures, Development |
| JEL: | H56 H52 O47 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie5:dipe0035&r=inv |
| By: | Josten, Cecily (London School of Economics); Krause, Helen (Citi, Citigroup Centre); Lordan, Grace (London School of Economics); Yeung, Brian (Citi, Citigroup Centre) |
| Abstract: | Technology is disrupting labor markets. We analyze the demand and reward for skills at occupation and state level across two time periods using job postings. First, we use principal components analysis to derive nine skills groups: 'collaborative leader', 'interpersonal & organized', 'big data', 'cloud computing', 'programming', 'machine learning', 'research', 'math' and 'analytical'. Second, we comment on changes in the price and demand for skills over time. Third, we analyze non-linear returns to all skills groups and their interactions. We find that 'collaborative leader' skills become significant over time and that legacy data skills are replaced over time by innovative ones. |
| Keywords: | skills, cognitive skills, soft skills, inclusive leadership, wages, demand for skills |
| JEL: | J10 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16755&r=inv |
| By: | Kadir, Kadir; Prasetyo, Octavia Rizky |
| Abstract: | Our study aims to evaluate the accuracy of the forecasts produced based on the paddy growing phase obtained from the results of the Area Sampling Frame (ASF) Survey and, as a comparison, proposes an alternative forecast method taking into account the seasonal pattern and hierarchical structure of the national paddy harvested area estimation obtained from the ASF to improve the accuracy. In doing so, we calculated the MAPE by comparing the realization of paddy harvested area during the period January to September 2022 with their forecasts produced from the area of generative, late vegetative, and early vegetative phases. We also implemented a Hierarchical forecasting method on monthly data of the harvested area from January 2018 to August 2022 for all provinces. Specifically, we applied the bottom-up method for the reconciliation and the rolling window method to produce a three-consecutive month forecast for the period January to September 2022. We found that the accuracy prediction based on the paddy growing phase is moderately accurate. The combination of the bottom-up reconciliation method and the SARIMA model produces a much better accuracy for the national figure of paddy harvested area as shown by a lower MAPE. Our findings suggest that the Hierarchical forecasting method could be an alternative for the prediction of harvested area based on the ASF results other than the prediction obtained from the standing crops. |
| Keywords: | ASF, Hierarchical, forecasting, paddy, SARIMA |
| JEL: | C1 C18 C40 Q1 Q10 |
| Date: | 2023–08–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119893&r=inv |
| By: | Hector Chade; Ilse Lindenlaub |
| Abstract: | How does the presence of risk sharing affect sorting patterns on productive attributes when there are complementarities among partners' skills in match output? We develop a matching model in which risk-averse agents, who differ in skills, match pairwise for productive purposes. Match output has stochastic returns and matched partners efficiently share this risk. We find that under plausible assumptions the risk-sharing benefit of marriage tends to push toward negative sorting on partners' skills. To obtain the prediction of positive skill sorting—a robust empirical feature of marriage markets—this force needs to be counteracted by sufficiently strong skill complementarities in match output. We provide a novel inequality that characterizes monotone (positive or negative) equilibrium sorting, balancing out skill complementarities and risk-sharing considerations in the right way. Several classes of primitives (utility and match output functions) render monotone sorting optimal. We then highlight a new implication of positive sorting on exogenous skills for matching patterns on endogenous differences in risk aversion: Positive sorting on skills translates into positive sorting on risk aversion—in line with the evidence from marriage markets. |
| JEL: | C78 D81 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32051&r=inv |
| By: | Thomas Heggarty (RTE - Réseau de Transport d'Electricité [Paris], PERSEE - Centre Procédés, Énergies Renouvelables, Systèmes Énergétiques - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jean-Yves Bourmaud (RTE - Réseau de Transport d'Electricité [Paris]); Robin Girard (PERSEE - Centre Procédés, Énergies Renouvelables, Systèmes Énergétiques - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Georges Kariniotakis (PERSEE - Centre Procédés, Énergies Renouvelables, Systèmes Énergétiques - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Capacity expansion models provide the basis on which to decide where, when, how much and what technology type to deploy. In systems with large shares of variable renewable energy, the low temporal detail of these models has been shown to introduce biases, prompting much recent work to reduce them. This paper shows that this issue is fairly secondary compared to the impact of maximum investment rates. Through this parameter, typically not discussed in capacity expansion studies, many notions can collectively be expressed, such as the rate at which capacity is financed, institutions approve development, manufacturers roll-out equipment, civil engineers build infrastructure, network operators connect plants etc. This paper shows that considering even ambitious development rates significantly increases total system costs, and drastically changes the structure of an optimal generation mix. The presented sensitivity analysis is based on a multi-region representation of the European power system, modelled using the open-source tool OSeMOSYS, to which a novel power transmission module has been added. Results stress the extent to which hopes of meeting climate targets hinge on society's collective ability to deploy new low-carbon infrastructure fast enough. Energy policy can enhance this ability by providing long-term visibility and stability, reducing investment risk. |
| Keywords: | Capacity expansion planning, maximum investment rate, optimal investment pathways, brownfield study, climate targets, energy transition, Prospective studies, Renewable energies |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04383397&r=inv |
| By: | Anna Burova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Danila Karpov (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Denis Koshelev (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation) |
| Abstract: | Applying a new method of decomposition of corporate credit growth, we estimated what part of credit expansion in Russia in 2018–2021 was accounted for by companies that had experience in credit borrowing in the past, and what part was due to newcomers to the corporate bank loan market. In absolute terms, the share of the loan portfolio attributable to companies that are new to the credit market (the extensive component of growth) is small. A fact that is not obvious at first glance, which we confirm in the course of the study, is that their contribution to fluctuations in the growth rates of credit aggregates, on the contrary, is large. The fact is that companies with existing credit relationships (the intensive component of growth) borrow and repay comparable amounts. Moreover, both the same borrower and different borrowing companies can borrow and repay - we draw a conclusion about their net activity. What unites them and allows us to consider such borrowers on a net basis is the presence of bank loans in the past (based on this fact, we can talk about such a set of borrowers as an intensive component of the growth of corporate bank loans). Thus, the net contribution of the intensive component to credit expansion is small. During the acute phase of the pandemic (from June 2020 to May 2021), the role of lending on preferential terms increased noticeably and then decreased. For companies new to the lending market from affected industries (according to the list of the Russian Government), this growth was especially noticeable. This corresponds with other results: the massive inflow of borrowers at the beginning of the pandemic was sporadic and tightly linked to the state support measures. In this regard, the lower default rates of loans issued with the start of state support programs (between June and September 2020) probably do not imply better quality of borrowers, but reflect the features of the subsidised loans. Within the framework of already existing credit relations (the intensive component of growth), the contribution of preferential lending to the growth of corporate credit was relatively stable until July 2021, after which the contribution of the non-preferential component began to grow rapidly. An increase in the share of inactive borrowers, i.e., those who have open but unused credit lines starting from April 2021. Potentially, this type of borrowers may quickly increase their borrowings via open credit lines under adverse economic conditions. Thus, entail additional risks to banks. In this regard, we suggest the close monitoring of open and used credit lines. However, actual utilisation of credit lines could be bounded by terms of credit agreement, revaluation of collateral, and could led to smaller volumes of funds available during adverse economic conditions. |
| Keywords: | corporate debt, loan portfolio, state support measures, credit lines, credit aggregates |
| JEL: | E44 F34 G28 G31 G32 G38 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps119&r=inv |
| By: | Viacheslav Kramkov (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation) |
| Abstract: | If the consumer price index (CPI), one of the main indicators of inflation, consists of several components, would it be more accurate to forecast them separately? International experience shows that the aggregate of individual forecasts is often more accurate than the forecast of the aggregated index. In this paper, we explore this issue for Russia and test whether the quality of inflation forecasts can be improved by the CPI individual components forecasting. Using the panel data of Russian regions for the period from 2010 to 2021 we partially confirm the usefulness of a disaggregated approach. Individual modelling of the short-term price dynamics of individual commodity groups is ahead in terms of accuracy of the overall inflation model, including standard benchmark models, but only under certain conditions. First, it is necessary to include the factors of trend inflation in the models, which helps to separate the trend inflation acceleration/deceleration from short-term idiosyncratic fluctuations. Secondly, the models should have the property of inflation convergence to its long-term level, determined by the Bank of Russia's goal. Under these conditions, the disaggregated approach gives a more accurate forecast on short horizons than the aggregated one and a forecast of comparable to non-structural models’ accuracy on longer ones. Additionally, good predictive properties of the “anchored” forecast model were established (the “anchored” forecast is equal to the target inflation rate). The accuracy of this forecast turns out to be higher than the accuracy of standard models and does not deteriorate with an increase in the forecast horizon. This allows us to recommend this model as a simple non-structural benchmark for measuring the quality of inflation forecast models in Russia. |
| Keywords: | price dynamics of CPI components, forecasting, relative prices, trend inflation, idiosyncratic shocks, comparison of forecasting models in panel data |
| JEL: | E31 E37 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps112&r=inv |
| By: | Hannes Wallimann |
| Abstract: | Measures to reduce transport-related greenhouse gas emissions are of great importance to policy-makers. A recent example is the nationwide KlimaTicket in Austria, a country with a relatively high share of transport-related emissions. The cheap yearly season ticket introduced in October 2021 allows unlimited access to Austria's public transport network. Using the synthetic control and synthetic difference-in-differences methods, I assess the causal effect of this policy on public transport demand by constructing a data-driven counterfactual out of European railway companies to mimic the number of passengers of the Austrian Federal Railways without the KlimaTicket. The results indicate public transport demand grew slightly faster in Austria, i.e., 3.3 or 6.8 percentage points, depending on the method, than it would have in the absence of the KlimaTicket. However, the growth effect after the COVID-19 pandemic appears only statistically significant when applying the synthetic control method, and the positive effect on public transport demand growth disappears in 2022. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.06835&r=inv |
| By: | Anatoliy Kostruba (UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | The scientific publication analyses the interdisciplinary concept of corporate governance, thereby illuminating different aspects of this phenomenon. Three interconnected aspects are observed: corporate governance as a management category, its social context and its legal implications. Examining each component in isolation from the others serves to limit the corporation's functionality to its applied value in the social arena. An assessment of corporate governance as behavioural models, considering representation, efficiency, growth, financial structure and attitude toward stakeholders, enables the depersonalisation of organisational unity, a defining characteristic of any legal entity. Through an interdisciplinary approach, we demonstrate how corporate management functions to organise a corporation's activities by influencing the subjects of management in microeconomic processes and their interaction with one another, ultimately ensuring optimal socioeconomic viability of the corporation within the macroeconomic environment. |
| Abstract: | La publication scientifique analyse le concept interdisciplinaire de gouvernance d'entreprise, éclairant ainsi différents aspects de ce phénomène. Trois aspects interconnectés sont observés : la gouvernance d'entreprise en tant que catégorie de gestion, son contexte social et ses implications juridiques. Examiner chaque composante indépendamment des autres sert à limiter la fonctionnalité de l'entreprise à sa valeur appliquée dans le domaine social. Une évaluation de la gouvernance d'entreprise en tant que modèles comportementaux, prenant en compte la représentation, l'efficacité, la croissance, la structure financière et l'attitude envers les parties prenantes, permet de dépersonnaliser l'unité organisationnelle, caractéristique déterminante de toute entité juridique. Grâce à une approche interdisciplinaire, nous démontrons comment la gestion d'entreprise fonctionne pour organiser les activités d'une entreprise en influençant les sujets de gestion dans les processus microéconomiques et leur interaction les uns avec les autres, garantissant finalement une viabilité socio-économique optimale de l'entreprise dans l'environnement macroéconomique. |
| Keywords: | Corporation, Corporate governance, Board of directors, Shareholders, Legal entities, Ownership, Management Boards, Legal entities of commercial law, Kostruba, corporate law, Gouvernance d'entreprise, Actionnaires majoritaires et minoritaires, Personnes morales corporatives, Propriété, Direction d'entreprise, Société Anonyme SA, Société |
| Date: | 2024–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04407461&r=inv |
| By: | David R. Agrawal; James M. Poterba; Owen M. Zidar |
| Abstract: | This paper catalogues policies that have been deployed by jurisdictions seeking to mitigate the effects of tax competition. There are many instruments in this policy arsenal, since the tax base associated with a particular tax instrument may be affected by multiple policy choices, including some such as capital controls and development incentives that are outside the traditional realm of tax policy. This paper describes sixteen instruments that both federal and sub-federal governments have adopted in an effort to limit tax competition. It classifies them into three groups: those that can be pursued unilaterally, those that require bilateral or multilateral agreement, and those that require action by an external actor such as an overarching government. It also discusses the set of economic responses that are relevant to the evaluation of these policies, and then summarizes new evidence on the impact of a subset of these policy instruments in the United States and several other nations. |
| JEL: | H2 H3 H73 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32090&r=inv |
| By: | Romuald Grouille (VALLOREM - Val de Loire Recherche en Management - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours); Lauryane Tassigny (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | L'objectif de ce papier est de questionner le rôle et la place de la reconnaissance en tant que pratique favorable et potentiellement centrale au processus d'inclusion, en vue de contribuer à la compréhension et l'étude du phénomène dans son acception organisationnelle.L'approche adoptée est celle d'une revue de littérature comparée des deux champs conceptuels de la reconnaissance et de l'inclusion dont le dialogue n'est que très peu engagé. Notre revue permet de penser la reconnaissance comme une pratique organisationnelle instanciée favorable à la satisfaction des besoins d'unicité et d'appartenance, i.e. aux deux besoins présidant à l'inclusion d'un sujet. En outre, nous soulignons l'importance de considérer les motivations à l'inclusion des individus et du groupe en tant qu'acteurs, au-delà des facteurs organisationnels classiquement étudiés en MRH. Au terme de ce travail, nous proposons une définition renouvelée de l'inclusion, intégrant la reconnaissance et en faisant un mécanisme d'effectivité privilégié.Nous concluons notre travail par une tentative de modélisation heuristique d'un processus interactionnel et dynamique de l'inclusion dont nous discutons les apports pratiques et les perceptives de recherches induites notamment dans une optique d'opérationnalisation. |
| Keywords: | Reconnaissance, inclusion, climat inclusif, diversité, unicité, appartenance |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04412980&r=inv |
| By: | Anomita Ghosh (National Council of Applied Economic Research); Rupayan Pal (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR)) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines strategic trade policy for differentiated network-goods oligopolies under alternative scenarios when there is export-rivalry between two countries. We demonstrate that, in the absence of managerial delegation, the optimal trade policy entails an export tax (subsidy) if network externalities are weak (strong). However, when price competition is combined with managerial delegation, the opposite is true. Subsidizing exports, on the other hand, is always optimal under quantity competition. We also show that the welfare consequences of strategic trade policy depend not only on the mode of product market competition, but also on firms’ internal organizations and the strength of network externalities. |
| Keywords: | Strategic trade policy, network goods, relative-performance based managerial delegation, price competition, quantity competition. |
| JEL: | F12 F13 L13 L22 D21 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:152&r=inv |
| By: | Blanc, Corin |
| Abstract: | Based on the International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) of 2020, we are analyzing the relationship between political positioning, trust, and attitudes towards environmental policies. Our study reveals that voters of far-right parties in France, Europe, and the United States are less concerned about environmental issues compared to others. Their environmental concerns also differ in nature: they focus on local issues whose consequences directly affect their daily lives. Furthermore, these voters are generally opposed to any binding environmental policy, regardless of its nature. They also prefer punitive environmental policies over positive incentives for behavioral change, unlike centrist voters. We also confirm a previously known result: far-right voters express lower trust than others towards the rest of society and institutions in general. However, this distrust appears to hinder their adherence to environmentally friendly policies and attitudes. |
| Keywords: | Environnement, Vote, Wellbeing, far-right |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:notobe:2315b&r=inv |
| By: | Bada Han; Jangyoun Lee; Taehee Oh |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine how, contrary to the ‘original sin’ hypothesis, emerging market economies have gained the ability to borrow abroad in their local currency. We empirically analyze the relationship of various economic variables with local currency debt and identify three crucial conditions for the capacity to borrow in local currency: institutional quality, sufficient depth in the domestic bond market, and adequate performance in inflation targeting. While shares in JPMorgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) index also appear to be influential, the associations with local currency debt is less clear. We conduct a similar empirical analysis on portfolio equity, which represents a safer form of external liability than foreign currency debt, and verify that the depth of the equity market plays a key role in attracting foreign capital to domestic equity markets. Finally, we propose a simple portfolio model based on the inelastic market hypothesis to explain the positive correlation between capital market depth and the dissipation of original sin, which refers to the presence of more external liability in the form of equity or local currency debt. In essence, our analysis suggests that emerging market economies with reasonably strong fundamentals are not necessarily reliant on foreign currency debt. |
| Keywords: | Original Sin; Local Currency Debt; Emerging Markets |
| Date: | 2024–01–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/018&r=inv |
| By: | Miguel Angel Montanes-Del-Rio; Jose Aurelio Medina-Garrido |
| Abstract: | Tourism's increasing share of Gross Domestic Product throughout the world, its impact on employment and its continuous growth justifies the interest it raises amongst entrepreneurs and public authorities. However, this growth coexists with intense competition; as a result of which, tourism companies must continuously innovate in order to survive and grow. This is evident in the diversification of tourism products and destinations, the improvement of business processes and the incorporation of new technologies for intermediation, amongst other examples. This paper expounds on the factors that explain the propensity for innovation amongst tourism entrepreneurs and it may help governments to promote innovation that is based on those determining factors. The hypotheses are tested using a logistic regression on 699 international tourism entrepreneurs, taken from the 2014 Global Adult Population Survey of the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor project. The propensity for innovation amongst tourism entrepreneurs has a statistically significant relationship to gender, age, level of education and informal investments in previous businesses. |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.13679&r=inv |
| By: | Chakraborty, Lekha (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Kaur, Amandeep (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Mohanty, Ranjan Kumar (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Rangan, Divy (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | Against the backdrop of COP28, this paper investigates the impact of intergovernmental fiscal transfers (IGFT) on climate change commitments in India. Within the analytical framework of environmental federalism, we tested the evidence for Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) using a panel model covering 27 Indian States from 2003 to 2020. The results suggest a positive and significant relationship between IGFT and the net forest cover (NFC) across Indian States. The analysis also suggests an inverse-U relationship between Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) and the environmental quality, indicating a potential Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) for India. The findings substantiate the fiscal policy impacts for climate change commitments within the fiscal federal frameworks of India, and the significance of IGFT in increasing the forest cover in India. This has policy implications for the sixteenth Finance Commission of India in integrating a climate change related criterion in the tax transfer formula in a sustainable manner. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Federalism ; Environmental Kuznets Curve ; Intergovernmental Fiscal Transfers ; Government Expenditures |
| JEL: | E6 H5 H7 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:24/406&r=inv |
| By: | Fogelberg, Irma (European Institute of Japanese Studies) |
| Abstract: | Since the 1990s, Japan has faced economic decline and demographic challenges. In response, the government has implemented pro-natalist and pro-family policies to solve the issue. A prominent discourse surrounding these policies, however, attributes demographic changes to the LGBTQ+ community. Contrary to this belief, the following article explores the economic benefits of LGBTQ+ inclusive social policies in Japan, emphasizing that such measures are not only a humanitarian necessity but also align with the country’s economic self-interest. This article argues that strengthening LGBTQ+ rights and creating an inclusive society can contribute to economic growth, higher work performance, and improved foreign direct investment (FDI). Highlighting areas such as anti-discrimination laws, same-sex marriage, assisted reproductive treatment, and Comprehensive Sexuality Education (CSE), the article advocates for legal reforms and policy measures to promote LGBTQ+ rights and, in turn, positively influence Japan’s economic landscape and societal well-being. |
| Keywords: | LGBTQ+ right; social policy; economic development; economic policy; creative class; demographic challenges; human rights; FDI; Japan |
| JEL: | F21 J13 J16 J24 J71 J78 |
| Date: | 2024–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:eijswp:0246&r=inv |
| By: | van Oosterhout, Kars (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Human capital in the region); Bakens, Jessie (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Labour market and training); Cörvers, Frank (RS: GSBE MORSE, RS: FdR Research Group ITEM, RS: GSBE - MACIMIDE, ROA / Human capital in the region) |
| Abstract: | Distance can form a barrier to enrolment in a university programme, particularly when it requires a student to move out of the parental home. |
| JEL: | R23 I22 I23 I24 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–01–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umaror:2024001&r=inv |
| By: | Pierre Cotterlaz; Vincent Vicard |
| Abstract: | Different reporting standards are applied to determine the country of origin of trade flows in existing international trade databases, altering the geography of trade. We illustrate this issue using two extensively used trade databases, UN-Comtrade and IMF-DoTS and show that it has important implications when evaluating the impact of trade policies using a gravity framework. We provide evidence that IMF-DoTs applies different reporting standards for intra- and extra-EU trade from 1999 onwards. Such discrepancies generate a (significant) upward bias in the estimated impact of RTA, the EU and the euro area on trade. Reporting standards also differ across declaring countries in UN-Comtrade. We show that it inflates the estimated impact of Brexit on trade. |
| Keywords: | Gravity Equation;International Trade;Statistics;Regional Trade Agreements;European Union;Brexit |
| JEL: | F14 F13 F15 F62 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2023-23&r=inv |
| By: | David A. Keiser; Bhashkar Mazumder; David Molitor; Joseph S. Shapiro; Brant J. Walker |
| Abstract: | The quality and inequality of US drinking water investments have gained attention after recent environmental disasters in Flint, Michigan, and elsewhere. We compare the formula-based targeting of subsidized loans provided under the Safe Drinking Water Act with the targeting of congressional drinking water earmarks (“pork barrel” spending). Earmarks are often critiqued for potentially privileging wealthier and more politically connected communities. We find that earmarks target Black, Hispanic, and low-income communities, partly due to targeting water systems serving large populations. Earmark and loan targeting differ significantly across all the demographics we analyze. Compared to Safe Drinking Water Act loans, earmarks disproportionately target Hispanic communities but not Black or low-income communities. |
| JEL: | H2 I1 P0 Q5 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32058&r=inv |
| By: | Ben Aoki-Sherwood; Catherine Bregou; David Liben-Nowell; Kiran Tomlinson; Thomas Zeng |
| Abstract: | A common theory of choice posits that individuals make choices in a two-step process, first selecting some subset of the alternatives to consider before making a selection from the resulting consideration set. However, inferring unobserved consideration sets (or item consideration probabilities) in this "consider then choose" setting poses significant challenges, because even simple models of consideration with strong independence assumptions are not identifiable, even if item utilities are known. We consider a natural extension of consider-then-choose models to a top-$k$ ranking setting, where we assume rankings are constructed according to a Plackett-Luce model after sampling a consideration set. While item consideration probabilities remain non-identified in this setting, we prove that knowledge of item utilities allows us to infer bounds on the relative sizes of consideration probabilities. Additionally, given a condition on the expected consideration set size, we derive absolute upper and lower bounds on item consideration probabilities. We also provide algorithms to tighten those bounds on consideration probabilities by propagating inferred constraints. Thus, we show that we can learn useful information about consideration probabilities despite not being able to identify them precisely. We demonstrate our methods on a ranking dataset from a psychology experiment with two different ranking tasks (one with fixed consideration sets and one with unknown consideration sets). This combination of data allows us to estimate utilities and then learn about unknown consideration probabilities using our bounds. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.11016&r=inv |
| By: | Antoine Mandel; Van-Quy Nguyen; Bach Dong-Xuan |
| Abstract: | We provide a strategic model of the formation of production networks that subsumes the standard general equilibrium approach. The objective of firms in our setting is to choose their supply relationships so as to maximize their profit at the general equilibrium that unfolds. We show that this objective is equivalent to the maximization by the firms of their eigenvector centrality in the production network. As is common in network formation games based on centrality, there are multiple Nash equilibria in our setting. We have investigated the characteristics and the social efficiency of these equilibria in a stylized version of our model representing international trade networks. We show that the impact of network structure on social welfare is firstly determined by a trade-off between costs of increasing process complexity and positive spillovers on productivity induced by the diversification of the input mix. We further analyze a variant of our model that accounts for the risks of disruption of supply relationships. In this setting, we characterize how social welfare depends on the structure of the production network, the spatial distribution of risks, and the process of shock aggregation in supply chains. We finally show that simple trade policies characterized by sets of links that are either prevented or catalyzed can be a powerful equilibrium selection device. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.08929&r=inv |
| By: | Garvit Arora; Shubhangi Shubhangi; Ying Wu; Xuan Mei |
| Abstract: | As a quantitative characterization of the complicated economy, Macroeconomic Variables (MEVs), including GDP, inflation, unemployment, income, spending, interest rate, etc., are playing a crucial role in banks' portfolio management and stress testing exercise. In recent years, especially during the COVID-19 period and the current high inflation environment, people are frequently talking about the changing "correlation structure" of MEVs. In this paper, we use a principal component based algorithm to better understand MEVs' correlation structure in a given period. We also demonstrate how this method can be used to visualize historical MEVs pattern changes between 2000 and 2022. Further, we use this method to compare different hypothetical or historical macroeconomic scenarios and present our key findings. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.10162&r=inv |
| By: | Nicolas HÉRAULT; Stephen P. JENKINS |
| Abstract: | We decompose the redistributive effect of direct taxes into vertical, horizontal, and reranking components applying the methods of Urban and Lambert (Public Finance Review, 2008). In the first such application to the UK, and using yearly data covering 1977–2020, we find that redistributive effect increased over the period. However, there is no clear trend in horizontal inequity and this component forms a very small fraction of total redistributive effect by comparison with reranking and especially vertical components. It is also the vertical component that best tracks trends in redistributive effect. We give specific attention to the choice of the bandwidth used to define ‘close equals’ in terms of pre-tax income. We also show that implausible estimates of the horizontal inequity component arise for some years regardless of bandwidth used. |
| Keywords: | Redistributive effect; redistribution; horizontal inequity; reranking; Urban-Lambert decomposition; income tax |
| JEL: | D31 H24 H50 I38 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grt:bdxewp:2023-11&r=inv |
| By: | Daniel S. Hamermesh; Anwen Zhang |
| Abstract: | Since the mapping of the human genome in 2004, biologists have demonstrated genetic links to the expression of several income-enhancing physical traits. To illustrate how heredity produces intergenerational economic effects, this study uses one trait, beauty, to infer the extent to which parents’ physical characteristics transmit inequality across generations. Analyses of a large-scale longitudinal dataset in the U.S., and a much smaller dataset of Chinese parents and children, show that a one standard-deviation increase in parents’ looks is associated with a 0.4 standard-deviation increase in their child’s looks. A large data set of U.S. siblings shows a correlation of their beauty consistent with the same expression of their genetic similarity, as does a small sample of billionaire siblings. Coupling these estimates with parameter estimates from the literatures describing the impact of beauty on earnings and the intergenerational elasticity of income suggests that one standard-deviation difference in parents’ looks generates a 0.06 standard-deviation difference in their adult child’s earnings, which amounts to additional annual earnings in the U.S. of about $2300. |
| JEL: | D31 D64 J71 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32086&r=inv |