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on Investment |
| By: | Ju, Hyeon (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | The following is an annual column written by the president of the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade. With the arrival of the Year of the Blue Dragon, I am privileged to extend my greetings to the readers and supporters of i-KIET Issues & Analysis as we usher in the new year. Reflecting on the year gone by, 2023 presented formidable challenges to our economy, marked by a downturn that commenced in the latter part of 2022 and that culminated in a recession during the first half of 2023. Despite a modest resurgence in the second half of the year, 2023 was overall characterized by weak economic performance. Factors such as languid export momentum due to the global recession, the decline in the semiconductor industry, and a smaller-than-expected rebound in China persisted until the third quarter. Moreover, high inflation and interest rates dampened domestic demand. The end result was a growth rate just half of the one the country posted in 2022. As we look ahead to 2024, economic uncertainties linger, with major global and domestic risks weighing on the economy. Of paramount concern are the ongoing geopolitical tensions, epitomized by two major ongoing wars that have cast a pall over the global economy. This geopolitical situation is compounded by persistently high inflation and interest rates, which are not likely to fall anytime soon and should continue to retard global economic growth. Nevertheless, amid these challenges, our economy in 2024 is projected to beat 2023’s performance, fueled largely by a surge in exports owing to a rallying semiconductor industry. However, enduring geopolitical uncertainties and slack domestic demand hampered by worsening financial conditions may exert downward pressure on growth. Internal and external factors pose substantial challenges to Korea achieving a robust recovery and sustainable economic growth. To address these challenges, our institution remains steadfastly committed to meticulously analyzing current issues in the real economy and formulating policies. We pledge our unwavering commitment to revitalizing the domestic economy and fostering an industrial resurgence. In this new year, we will strive to augment our capacity and serve as a pivotal think tank driving industrial development in Korea. May the new year bring prosperity to your homes and workplaces. Ju Hyeon, President Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade |
| Keywords: | Korean economy; inflation; interest rates; macroeconomy; exports; growth; 2024 outlook; Korea; KIET |
| JEL: | E40 E66 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietia:2024_001&r=inv |
| By: | Markonah Markonah (Faculty of Economics and Business, Perbanas Institute, Jakarta, Indonesia Author-2-Name: Hedwigis Esti Mediteraniai Author-2-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Economics and Business, Perbanas Institute, Jakarta, Indonesia Author-3-Name: Yohanes Ferry Cahaya Author-3-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Economics and Business, Perbanas Institute, Jakarta, Indonesia Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | " Objective - Personal financial management is a way of managing finances that is the responsibility of the individual. This study analyzes the effect of financial literacy, financial attitude, and hedonistic lifestyle on personal financial management in Islamic Economics students at Perbanas Institute Jakarta. The benefit of this research is that Islamic Economics Students at the Perbanas Institute, Jakarta, are more careful in managing their personal finances. Methodology – The population in this study was Perbanas Institute Jakarta Islamic Economics students' class of 2018-2021. The sample in this study was obtained from questionnaire data distributed to 100 respondents using the nonprobability sampling method. Sampling used accidental sampling. Findings – Using regression analysis, data were processed with SPSS version 25. The results showed that the hedonistic lifestyle proved to have a positive and significant effect on personal financial management. In contrast, financial literacy and financial attitude had no effect on personal financial management. Adjusted R Square value of 23.2% states that Personal Financial Management is influenced by Financial Literacy, Financial Attitude, and hedonistic lifestyle of 23.2%. Novelty – It is recommended to improve the hedonistic lifestyle in managing their finances and how to allocate time effectively so that Personal Financial Management also increases so that they can save expenses. Type of Paper - Empirical" |
| Keywords: | Financial Literacy, Financial Attitude, Hedonism Lifestyle, Personal Financial Management. |
| JEL: | G21 G34 B26 |
| Date: | 2023–12–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jfbr218&r=inv |
| By: | Kadir, Kadir; Prasetyo, Octavia Rizky; Rudiana, Eka |
| Abstract: | Measuring the food insecurity of agricultural households is very important in the Indonesian context since the country’s agricultural sector is dominated by small-scale farmers that are prone to food insecurity. Moreover, it also describes the resilience and sustainability of the agricultural sector in the country from the social dimension. However, to date, there is no study assessing the prevalence of food insecurity among agricultural households in Indonesia utilizing a nationwide agricultural survey. Hence, to fill the gap, this study aims to gauge the prevalence of food insecurity among agricultural households in Indonesia. In doing so, we applied the Rasch model to the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) data obtained from the results of first Indonesia’s Agricultural Integrated Survey (AGRIS) conducted in 2021. After applying the Rasch Model on FIES data collected from 212, 339 agricultural household samples responding to all FIES questions, we found that our FIES data provide a reliable measurement of food insecurity in agricultural households. Following the SDG 2.1.2 framework, the final results showed that the proportion of agricultural households in Indonesia experiencing severe levels of food insecurity was 0.29 per cent while the proportion of agricultural households experiencing moderate or severe levels of food insecurity, combined, was 3.27 per cent of around 20 million agricultural households. As expected, those households experiencing severe food insecurity only manage a small area of agricultural land, particularly on Java Island with an average of fewer than 0.5 hectares per household. This finding may suggest that food insecurity exists in Indonesia among agricultural households with limited access to agricultural land resources. |
| Keywords: | agricultural household; FIES; AGRIS; Rasch model; Indonesia |
| JEL: | Q12 Q18 |
| Date: | 2023–04–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119416&r=inv |
| By: | Gohdes, N.Nicholas; Simshauser, P.; Wilson, C. |
| Abstract: | Energy markets were designed to maximise productive, allocative and dynamic efficiency. Although renewables have become the dominant investment in deregulated energy markets, decarbonisation may not proceed at a pace consistent with the aspirations of policymakers. This has led governments in a number of jurisdictions to prime markets through ‘Contracts for- Differences’ (CfDs) or Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), thus bringing forward investment and decarbonisation efforts. The war in Ukraine and its adverse impact on energy prices only emphasises a sense of urgency on an energy security dimension. Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) projects in Australia are typically underpinned by run-of-plant PPAs, but an emerging trend has been rising number of semi-merchant projects whereby some level of spot market exposure is retained. In this article, we examine how and why the semi-merchant investment model has arisen along with the minimum contracted coverage for a bankable project financing. Results reveal for investors with a target of 60-65% debt within the capital structure, a revenue mix comprising 73-78% PPA coverage and 22-27% merchant plant exposure is viable and a tractable project financing. For policymakers seeking to elicit 5000 MW of VRE plant capacity, the auction need only offer ~3800MW of CfD’s capacity, which has the benefit of reducing taxpayer exposures (cf. on-market transactions). |
| Keywords: | PPAs, Renewable Energy, Counterparty Credit, Project Finance, Cost of Capital |
| Date: | 2023–12–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2334&r=inv |
| By: | Koutroukis, Theodore (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Chatzinikolaou, Dimos (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on the global economy (SotoAcosta, 2020), which has been further compounded by the rapid technological advancements of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, leading to the disruption and restructuring of many established professions and industries (Bonilla-Molina, 2020). This has resulted in a significant shift for all socioeconomic entities worldwide (Koutroukis et al., 2022; Marinov & Marinova, 2021), including the labor market, which has been greatly impacted (Dhakal et al., 2021; Eaton & Heckscher, 2021; Pacheco et al., 2022). In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, it has become evident that further research is required to comprehensively understand the profound changes taking place in the workforce. The purpose of this conceptual essay is to examine the alterations that have occurred in human resources and employment relations due to the pandemic (Jaakkola, 2020). It also proposes the concept of social dialogue as a means of facilitating the necessary organizational reforms. With the emergence of structural changes in labor relations, the objective is to establish whether Social Dialogue (SD) is a critical factor for the future growth of all socioeconomic organizations that have been affected by the crisis, and to draw definitive conclusions. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 Pandemic; Human Resource Management; Labor Relations; Social Dialogue; New Global Era |
| JEL: | F16 F60 O15 |
| Date: | 2023–12–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:duthrp:2023_003&r=inv |
| By: | Ramírez-Orihuela, Mitzi Vania; Venegas-Martínez, Francisco |
| Abstract: | Objetivo: Esta investigación examina el impacto de la pandemia de Covid-19 en la Incertidumbre de la Política Económica (EPU) y en la actividad económica en las principales economías de América Latina, específicamente en México, Brasil, Chile, Colombia y Argentina. Estas economías no sólo son las más grandes, sino también las más afectadas por la pandemia de Covid-19. Metodología: Se utiliza un modelo de datos de panel con datos diarios (enero 2019-agosto de 2021). Utilizamos las siguientes variables: índices EPU, índice de actividad económica, índice de letalidad. Resultados: Los principales hallazgos con que las economías latinoamericanas sufrieron una fuerte desaceleración en la actividad económica, afectando principalmente en el sector industrial, sector servicios, comercio al menudeo, construcción, manufactura, consumo y turismo, ocasionado por las medidas de contención implementadas por cada gobierno. Así mismo, la evidencia empírica muestra que un choque de incertidumbre tiende a reducir el nivel de actividad económica. Además, la actividad económica impacta en la incertidumbre de política económica. Por último, ante aumentos en los casos confirmados de Covid-19, se presentaron disminuciones en el índice de actividad económica para todos los países de estudio, siendo Brasil y Argentina los más afectados. // Objective: This research examines the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and economic activity in the main economies of Latin America, specifically in Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Argentina. These economies are not only the largest, but also the most affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Methodology: A panel data model is used (January 2019-August 2021). We use the following variables: EPU indices, economic activity index and fatality index. Results: The main findings are that Latin American economies suffered a strong slowdown in economic activity, mainly affecting the industrial sector, services sector, retail trade, construction, manufacturing, consumption and tourism, caused by the containment measures implemented by each government. Likewise, empirical evidence shows that an uncertainty shock tends to reduce the level of economic activity. Moreover, economic activity impacts the uncertainty of economic policy. Finally, due to the increase in confirmed cases of Covid-19, there were drops in the economic activity index of all the countries in the study, with Brazil and Argentina being the most affected. |
| Keywords: | economic activity, economic policy uncertainty, panel data models, Latin American countries. |
| JEL: | C54 |
| Date: | 2024–01–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119668&r=inv |
| By: | Anissa Lestari Kadiyono (Faculty of Psychology-Universitas Padjadjaran, Sumedang - Indonesia 45363 Author-2-Name: Aryo Bima Fathoni Cahyono Author-2-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Psychology-Universitas Padjadjaran, Sumedang - Indonesia 45363 Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | " Objective - This research is conducted with a focus on women-owned SMEs in Indonesia, which play a crucial role in driving the nation's economic progress. The study aims to determine whether the psychological empowerment and entrepreneurial orientation of women who own and operate SMEs can be enhanced to encourage further economic development. Methodology/Technique - This study employs quantitative analysis, with primary data collected through a questionnaire survey. The survey garnered responses from 796 participants selected via quota sampling from 3 major densely populated provinces in Indonesia, namely West Java Province, West Sumatra Province, and Yogyakarta D.I. Province. Structural Equation Modeling was used to test the model. Finding - The results of the analysis reveal that women's psychological empowerment has a significant impact on entrepreneurial orientation. Interventions designed to bolster psychological empowerment and entrepreneurial orientation are expected to enhance the productivity of women-led SMEs. The research has yielded an alternative model for improving the performance of female entrepreneurs in the SME sector to boost competitiveness by fostering increased entrepreneurial intentions. Novelty - In the framework of social cognitive theory, Women's Psychological Empowerment represents a psychological asset that enables individuals, particularly female SME operators, to address challenges in their environments proactively. This empowerment is associated with a positive orientation towards entrepreneurial behavior. The study has yielded a model that aims to augment the capabilities of women SME entrepreneurs, thereby preparing them to thrive within the digital economy ecosystem. Type of Paper - Empirical" |
| Keywords: | Psychological Empowerment; Entrepreneurial Orientation; Women-Owned SMEs; Gender |
| JEL: | L2 L26 |
| Date: | 2023–12–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:gjbssr640&r=inv |
| By: | Ilma Nurul Rachmania ("School of Business and Management, Bandung Institute of Technology, 40116, Bandung, Indonesia" Author-2-Name: Gatot Yudoko Author-2-Workplace-Name: "School of Business and Management, Bandung Institute of Technology, 40116, Bandung, Indonesia" Author-3-Name: Mursyid Hasan Basri Author-3-Workplace-Name: School of Business and Management, Bandung Institute of Technology, 40116, Bandung, Indonesia Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | " Objective - The concept of the service ecosystem is gaining recognition in the academic community of management scholars. In this context, the discussion revolves around service-dominant logic, where the focus shifts to the value derived from service and relationships in the broader ecosystem. Therefore, this study aimed to explore the phenomena of healthcare access and how to navigate the service ecosystem to enhance healthcare accessibility management. Methodology - The qualitative method was used with a case study design across two private primary care facilities in West Java. Results - The results showed that challenges related to healthcare access were prevalent in developing countries, including Indonesia. However, there was a significant potential for innovation to achieve improvements. The results underscored the crucial need for collaborative efforts from multiple sectors and critical stakeholders. Novelty - The novelty of this study lies in the adoption of an ecosystem perspective, accentuating the significance of value co-creation through collaborative efforts among interconnected actors. The results also contributed to a more comprehensive understanding of healthcare accessibility management in developing countries, offering insights that could inform strategies for fostering a more equitable and inclusive healthcare service management. Type of Paper - Empirical" |
| Keywords: | Healthcare Access, Service Ecosystem, Value Co-Creation, Healthcare Services, Primary Care |
| JEL: | I11 M15 D63 I12 I13 |
| Date: | 2023–12–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jmmr325&r=inv |
| By: | Carmen Marín-González; Diego Martínez-López |
| Abstract: | This paper focusses on the objectives guiding the fiscal policy of the Spanish regions over the period 2013-2022. Beyond the usual concerns of national governments for closing the output gap and guaranteeing debt sustainability, we have included an additional task at the subnational level, namely, the provision of public services such as health and education. The results indicate that, except for the year 2020, there is a strong policy preference for primary public spending, with a relative weight of between 40 and 60 per cent among the objectives driving fiscal policy. The preference for debt sustainability has ranged between 20 per cent (with the maximum value reached in 2013 and then again after the pandemic) and 0, depending on the model specification. And finally, the weight of stabilisation has been estimated, using previous contributions, at between 0.39 and 0.25. Additional results regarding variations across regions have been also obtained. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2024-02&r=inv |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This Joint Staff Advisory Note (JSAN) reviews the mid-term review report(MTR) of Somalia’s Ninth National Development Plan (NDP9).1 NDP9 is a nationallyowned and comprehensive strategy for poverty reduction and inclusive growth. It covers2020–2024 and is organized around the four pillars: Inclusive Politics, Security and theRule of Law, Economic Development, and Social Development. NDP9 was submitted tothe IMF and World Bank on October 15, 2019, to fulfill the Enhanced Heavily IndebtedPoor Countries (HIPC) Initiative’s poverty reduction strategy requirement. The firstAnnual Progress Report (APR) was received by the World Bank and the IMF in June 2022, and a JSAN was prepared and submitted to the Boards in July 2023. The MTR tracksprogress of the first 30 months of NDP9 implementation and serves as APR for 2021 and2022. The MTR also identifies the gaps, challenges, and lessons learned, and makespractical recommendations for improvement in the implementation of NDP9’s finalphase from 2023 to 2024. |
| Date: | 2023–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/441&r=inv |
| By: | Carlos Esquivel (Rutgers University) |
| Abstract: | Capital and its sectoral allocation affect default incentives. Under general assumptions, default risk is decreasing in the total stock of capital and increasing in the share of capital allocated to non-tradable production. This implies that when competitive households make all investment decisions capital has two externalities: a capital-stock externality and a portfolio externality. These hamper the ability of a benevolent government to make optimal borrowing and default decisions and are exacerbated during periods of distress. Competitive equilibria feature underinvestment, larger non-traded sectors, more default, and lower debt and consumption than a centralized planner's allocation. Select number of author(s): : 1 |
| Keywords: | Soveriegn default, Underinvestment, Investment externalities |
| JEL: | F34 F41 H63 |
| Date: | 2024–11–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rut:rutres:202402&r=inv |
| By: | Schmidt, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | What are the macroeconomic consequences of a government that is limited in its willingness or ability to raise primary surpluses, and a central bank that accommodates its interest-rate policy to the fiscal conditions? I address this question in a dynamic stochastic sticky-price model with endogenous shifts between an “orthodox” and a “fiscally-dominant” policy regime. The risk of future regime shifts has encompassing effects on equilibrium. Inflation is systematically higher than it would be if fiscal policy always adjusted its primary surplus sufficiently and monetary policy was solely concerned with price stability. This inflation bias is increasing in the real value of government debt. Regime-switching probabilities are not invariant to policy. The central bank can attenuate the risk of a shift to the fiscally-dominant regime by raising the real interest rate sufficiently moderately when inflation increases. Lower fiscal dominance risk, in turn, mitigates the inflation bias. JEL Classification: E31, E52, E62, E63 |
| Keywords: | endogenous regime shifts, fiscal dominance, fiscal policy, inflation bias, monetary policy |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242889&r=inv |
| By: | Cummins, Neil |
| Abstract: | We use the universe of probate and vital registers, from England between 1838 and 2018 to document the status of the Irish in England. We identify the ‘Irish’ in the records as those individuals with distinctively Irish surnames. From at least the mid-19th century to 2018, the Irish in England have persisted as an underclass, being on average 50% poorer than the English. Infant mortality was about 25% higher for the Irish between the 1830s and the mid-twentieth century but has subsequently equalized. Sorting, both to urban areas, and to the North of England, are important elements in the Irish experience. We discuss the potential roles of selective migration, social mobility, and discrimination in this, and signpost directions for future research. |
| Keywords: | inequality; economic history; big data |
| JEL: | N00 N33 N34 |
| Date: | 2024–01–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121184&r=inv |