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on Investment |
| By: | Oscar Iván Ávila-Montealegre; Anderson Grajales-Olarte; Juan J. Ospina-Tejeiro; Mario A. Ramos-Veloza |
| Abstract: | We examine the adjustment of a small, open, emerging market economy (SOEME) to an unexpected increase in the minimum wage using an extended New-Keynesian SOE model that incorporates heterogeneous households, a flexible production structure, and a minimum wage rule. We calibrate the model for Colombia and find that an unexpected increase in the minimum wage has significant effects on the low-skilled labor market, and weaker impacts on inflation and the policy interest rate. The rise in the minimum wage increases production costs and prompts the substitution of formal low-skilled labor with informal workers and machinery, resulting in reduced output, increased inflation, and higher policy interest rates. We also observe that the minimum wage influences the transmission of productivity, demand, and monetary shocks, leading to a more persistent impact on macroeconomic variables, and a less efficient monetary policy to control inflation. Our findings suggest that the minimum wage has important macroeconomic implications, and affects emerging market economies through different channels than in developed economies. **** RESUMEN: En este artículo estudiamos el ajuste macroeconómico de una economía emergente pequeña y abierta ante un cambio inesperado en el salario mínimo. Para ello, construimos un modelo neo-keynesiano de economía pequeña y abierta con hogares heterogéneos, una estructura de producción con distintos tipos de trabajo y de capital, y una regla de ajuste del salario mínimo que responde a la inflación y productividad laboral pasadas, así como a choques inesperados. Tras calibrar el modelo para Colombia encontramos que un aumento inesperado del salario mínimo tiene efectos significativos sobre la producción y el empleo, y efectos moderados sobre la inflación y la tasa de política monetaria. En particular, observamos que el choque incrementa los costos de contratar mano de obra formal no calificada, la cual es sustituida por trabajadores informales y maquinaria. A pesar de esta sustitución, los mayores costos generan una contracción de la actividad económica, acompañada por un incremento en la inflación y en la tasa de política monetaria. Por otra parte, encontramos que la existencia de una regla de ajuste del salario mínimo afecta la transmisión de choques convencionales (productividad, demanda y política monetaria), aumentando su persistencia y reduciendo la efectividad de la política monetaria. Estos resultados son relevantes para economías emergentes en las que la política de salario mínimo tiene una mayor incidencia en el mercado laboral. |
| Keywords: | modelo de equilibrio general dinamico y estocástico, salario mínimo, mercado laboral informal, política monetaria, agentes heterogeneos, DSGE model, minimum wage, informal labor markets, monetary policy, heterogeneous agents |
| JEL: | E13 E50 J31 J46 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1264&r=inv |
| By: | Héloïse Berkowitz (LEST - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Sociologie du Travail - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, AMU - Aix Marseille Université); Mathias Guérineau (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - IUML - FR 3473 Institut universitaire Mer et Littoral - UM - Le Mans Université - UA - Université d'Angers - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Nantes Université - pôle Sciences et technologie - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Nantes Univ - ECN - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université, i3-CRG - Centre de recherche en gestion i3 - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Gaëlle Petit (ARENES - Arènes: politique, santé publique, environnement, médias - UR - Université de Rennes - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Rennes - EHESP - École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | As a blind spot in the transition, Life, in the sense of animal and plant species, landscapes and natural processes connected to the biosphere, raises specific and complex evaluation challenges. In this article, we propose a theoretical and evaluative framework for integrating the living world in transitions. By adopting a pragmatic environmental ethics approach, we discuss four major trajectories: technological-industrial, systemic rupture, regeneration and epistemic rupture. |
| Abstract: | Angle mort de la transition, le vivant au sens d'espèces animales et végétales, de paysages et de processus naturels liés à la biosphère, pose des enjeux spécifiques et complexes d'évaluation. Dans cet article, nous proposons un cadre théorique et évaluatif permettant d'intégrer le vivant dans les transitions. En adoptant une démarche d'éthique environnementale pragmatiste, nous discutons quatre trajectoires de transition : technologico-industrielle, de rupture systémique, de régénération et de rupture épistémique. |
| Keywords: | ecological and social transition, value, living, food system, meat industry, sustainability transitions, Transition écologique et sociale, Valeur, vivant, système alimentaire, filière viande |
| Date: | 2023–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04361332&r=inv |
| By: | Allen IV, James; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Kurdi, Sikandra; Shokry, Nada; Yassa, Basma |
| Abstract: | 1. Forsa, which means “Opportunity†in Arabic, is a new economic inclusion program of the government of the Arab Republic of Egypt. Implemented by the Ministry of Social Solidarity (MoSS), one major goal of the program is to graduate beneficiaries of Takaful to economic self reliance by enabling them to engage in wage employment or small-scale productive enterprises. 2. The Forsa program began in 2023, after significant delays. Obstacles to implementation in cluded the Covid-19 pandemic, nationwide inflation subsequent to the Ukraine-Russia war result ing in funding challenges for asset purchases, and administrative challenges with procurement approvals by the Ministry of Finance. Forsa implementation was conducted under MoSS super vision by local non-governmental organizations (NGOs). While a few NGOs received their first payments in the first quarter of 2022, most NGOs received their first payments in October 2022, delaying program implementation to February 2023. According to the MoSS, in the second half of 2023, households receiving assets through the program increased from around 3, 000 (9%) to 10, 302 (29%) out of a target of 35, 000 households through 49 contracted NGOs and two private hiring firms, and the number of participants receiving a job has increased from 3, 324 (23%) in August to 5, 392 (38%) by end of November of 2023 out of a target of 14, 314 households through 22 NGOs and two private firms. |
| Keywords: | economic aspects; employment; wages; enterprises; inflation; households; EGYPT; ARAB COUNTRIES; MIDDLE EAST; NORTH AFRICA; AFRICA |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menawp:43&r=inv |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Despite a series of shocks in the recent past, the Belgian financial sector has remained resilient and firm evidence for sustained credit or real estate price booms is limited. The profitability, capital adequacy and liquidity of banks have surpassed their pre-pandemic levels, remaining comfortably above regulatory thresholds. Notwithstanding the blows to the economy inflicted by the pandemic, spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the energy crisis, bankruptcies have not materialized, and the quality of loan portfolios has stayed strong as automatic wage indexation and government support have helped households and firms. The credit gap turning positive in late 2017 did not herald the beginning of a prolonged period of further widening, with private sector borrowing expanding at a robust pace until the rapid tightening of financial conditions since 2022 triggered an ebbing of lending growth. Prices for residential and commercial dwellings have steadily increased since 2014, yet market dynamism over this period has been generally below developments seen in other euro area countries, keeping valuations in check. |
| Date: | 2023–12–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/392&r=inv |
| By: | Zakariae Majid (FSJESO - Faculté des sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales, Université Mohammed Premier, Oujda, Maroc, mohammed.eddaou@ump.ac.ma); Driss Driouchi (FSJESO - Faculté des sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales, Université Mohammed Premier, Oujda, Maroc, mohammed.eddaou@ump.ac.ma) |
| Abstract: | In recent years, Morocco has pursued a consistent strategy of public debt to finance its expenditures. However, this continual reliance on borrowing has not yielded the necessary revenues to fulfill commitments to creditors while requiring the state to meet credit deadlines without compromising economic growth. In this context, this article aims to empirically explore the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Morocco from 2000 to 2020. The adopted methodology is based on a hypothetico-deductive approach, commencing with a comprehensive review of theoretical and empirical literature addressing this specific issue. Following this foundation, an econometric modeling is undertaken, specifically applying multiple regression model. This thorough analytical approach allows us to grasp the implications of public debt on Morocco's economic performance. The obtained results reveal a positive relationship between public debt and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This conclusion suggests that, in the Moroccan context, the increase in public debt is associated with an augmentation of GDP. However, interpreting this correlation requires nuanced analysis, taking into account the specificities of the Moroccan economic context. This study thus contributes to understanding the complex dynamics between public debt and economic growth, providing significant insights for policymakers and economic stakeholders. |
| Abstract: | Au cours des dernières années, le Maroc a opté pour une stratégie soutenue d'endettement public pour financer ses dépenses. Cependant, ce recours constant à l'emprunt n'a pas généré les revenus nécessaires pour honorer les engagements envers les créanciers, tout en exigeant de l'État le respect des échéances de crédit sans compromettre la croissance économique. Dans ce contexte, cet article vise à explorer empiriquement la relation entre la dette publique et la croissance économique au Maroc sur la période allant de 2000 à 2020. La méthodologie adoptée repose sur une approche hypothético-déductive, débutant par une revue exhaustive de la littérature théorique et empirique traitant de cette problématique spécifique. En suivant cette base, une modélisation économétrique est entreprise, notamment à travers l'application du modèle de régression multiple. Cette démarche analytique approfondie nous permet d'appréhender les implications de la dette publique sur la performance économique du Maroc. Les résultats obtenus révèlent un lien d'effet positif entre la dette publique et le Produit Intérieur Brut (PIB). Cette conclusion suggère que, dans le contexte marocain, l'accroissement de la dette publique est associé à une augmentation du PIB. Toutefois, l'interprétation de cette corrélation nécessite une analyse nuancée, prenant en compte les spécificités du contexte économique marocain. Cette étude contribue ainsi à la compréhension des dynamiques complexes entre endettement public et croissance économique, offrant des perspectives importantes pour les décideurs politiques et les acteurs économiques |
| Keywords: | Public debt; Economic growth; multiple regression; Morocoo, Dette publique; Croissance économique; Régression multiple; Maroc |
| Date: | 2023–12–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04358305&r=inv |
| By: | Matt Clancy |
| Abstract: | Scientific and technological progress has historically been very beneficial to humanity but this does not always need to be true. Going forward, science may enable bad actors to cause genetically engineered pandemics that are more frequent and deadly than prior pandemics. I develop a quantitative economic model to assess the social returns to science, taking into account benefits to health and income, and forecast damages from new biological capabilities enabled by science. I set parameters for this model based on historical trends and forecasts from a large forecasting tournament of domain experts and superforecasters, which included forecasts about genetically engineered pandemic events. The results depend on the forecast likelihood that new scientific capabilities might lead to the end of our advanced civilization - there is substantial disagreement about this probability from participants in the forecasting tournament I use. If I set aside this remote possibility, I find the expected future social returns to science are strongly positive. Otherwise, the desirability of accelerating science depends on the value placed on the long-run future, in addition to which set of (quite different) forecasts of extinction risk are preferred. I also explore the sensitivity of these conclusions to a range of alternative assumptions. |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2312.14289&r=inv |
| By: | MARQUES SANTOS Anabela (European Commission - JRC); CONTE Andrea (European Commission - JRC); MOLICA Francesco (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Using data from the execution of 2014-2020 cohesion policy, the paper offers a comprehensive analysis of the speed of absorption capacity of European funds by introducing novel metrics. It evaluates absorption capacity considering time performance and distinguishing between national and regional governance models. The study employs a Tobit model to explain the overall speed of absorption and a multinomial regression model to describe the drivers of the thematic area with the highest absorption capacity. Programmes and territorial characteristics are both relevant factors explaining the level of absorption of funds. However, when explaining the thematic area with the highest absorption capacity, programme characteristics are more relevant than territorial ones. |
| Keywords: | Cohesion policy; Absorption capacity; European Union |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:termod:202314&r=inv |
| By: | Baptiste Cougot (QualiPsy - E.E. 1901 - Qualité de vie et Santé psychologique [Tours] - UT - Université de Tours, CHU Nantes - Centre hospitalier universitaire de Nantes, IGEIA - Intervention Formation Recherche en Santé Psychosociale et Santé au Travail); Nicolas Gillet (QualiPsy - E.E. 1901 - Qualité de vie et Santé psychologique [Tours] - UT - Université de Tours, IUF - Institut Universitaire de France - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche); Alexandre J S Morin (Substantive-Methodological Synergy Research Laboratory); Jules Gauvin (IGEIA - Intervention Formation Recherche en Santé Psychosociale et Santé au Travail, CHU Nantes - Centre hospitalier universitaire de Nantes); Florian Ollierou (CHU Nantes - Centre hospitalier universitaire de Nantes, IGEIA - Intervention Formation Recherche en Santé Psychosociale et Santé au Travail); Leïla Moret (SPHERE - MethodS in Patients-centered outcomes and HEalth ResEarch - UT - Université de Tours - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - Nantes Univ - UFR Pharmacie - Nantes Université - UFR des Sciences Pharmaceutiques et Biologiques - Nantes Université - pôle Santé - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université, CHU Nantes - Centre hospitalier universitaire de Nantes); Dominique Tripodi (LPPL - Laboratoire de Psychologie des Pays de la Loire - UA - Université d'Angers - Nantes Univ - UFR LL - Nantes Université - UFR Lettres et Langages - Nantes Université - pôle Humanités - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université, CHU Nantes - Centre hospitalier universitaire de Nantes) |
| Abstract: | Purpose Research on structural empowerment has typically adopted a variable-centered perspective, which is not ideal to study the combined effects of structural empowerment components. This person-centered investigation aims to enhance our knowledge about the configurations, or profiles, of healthcare employees' perceptions of the structural empowerment dimensions present in their workplace (opportunity, information, support, and resources). Furthermore, this study considers the replicability and stability of these profiles over a period of two years, and their outcomes (perceived quality of care, and positive and negative affect). Design Participants completed the same self-reported questionnaires twice, two years apart. Methods A sample of 633 healthcare employees (including a majority of nurses and nursing assistants) participated. Latent transition analyses were performed. Results Five profiles were identified: Low Empowerment, High Information, Normative, Moderately High Empowerment, and High Empowerment. Membership into the Normative and Moderately High Empowerment profiles demonstrated a high level of stability over time (79.1% to 83.2%). Membership in the other profiles was either moderately stable (43.5% for the High Empowerment profile) or relatively unstable (19.7% to 20.4% for the Low Empowerment and High Information profiles) over time. More desirable outcomes (i.e., higher positive affect and quality of care, and lower negative affect) were observed in the High Empowerment profile. Conclusions These results highlight the benefits of high structural empowerment, in line with prior studies suggesting that structural empowerment can act as a strong organizational resource capable of enhancing the functioning of healthcare professionals. These findings additionally demonstrate that profiles characterized by the highest or lowest levels of structural empowerment were less stable over time than those characterized by more moderate levels. Clinical Relevance From an intervention perspective, organizations and managers should pay special attention to employees perceiving low levels of structural empowerment, as they experience the worst outcomes. In addition, they should try to maintain high levels of structural empowerment within the High Empowerment profile, as this profile is associated with the most desirable consequences. Such attention should be fruitful, considering the instability of the High Empowerment and Low Empowerment profiles over time. Registration: NCT04010773 on ClinicalTrials.gov (04 July, 2019) |
| Keywords: | PREPS-16-681, Structural empowerment, Well - being, Quality of care, Person-centered approach, Profile analysis |
| Date: | 2023–12–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04349766&r=inv |
| By: | Mohamad Adhami; Mark Bils; Charles I. Jones; Peter J. Klenow |
| Abstract: | Economic growth is typically measured in per capita terms. But social welfare should arguably include the number of people as well as their standard of living. We decompose social welfare growth — measured in consumption-equivalent (CE) units — into contributions from rising population and rising per capita consumption. Because of diminishing marginal utility from consumption, population growth is scaled up by a value-of-life factor that exceeds one and empirically averages nearly 3 across countries since 1960. Population increases are therefore a major contributor, and CE welfare growth around the world averages more than 6% per year since 1960 as opposed to 2% per year for consumption growth. Countries such as Mexico and South Africa rise sharply in the growth rankings, whereas China, Germany, and Japan plummet. These results are robust to incorporating time use and fertility decisions using data from the U.S., Mexico, the Netherlands, Japan, South Africa, and South Korea. Falling parental utility from having fewer kids is roughly offset by increases in the “quality” of kids associated with rising time investment per child. |
| JEL: | E01 O47 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31999&r=inv |
| By: | Anghel, Răzvan (Constanța Court of Appeal, Romania) |
| Abstract: | Team building activities are often combined with professional training activities or purely recreational activities. For this reason, the legal regime of these activities can be unclear and difficult to determine, with multiple implications in the relationship between employer and employee. The article examines the issue of the existence of the subordination relationship specific to labor law in the period affected by team-building activities and the meeting of the constitutive elements of the notion of working time. For this purpose, a multidisciplinary examination is carried out, namely of the fiscal regime of the expenses incurred by the employer for the organization of these activities, of the criminal liability for events that occurred on this occasion and of the incidence of the rules regarding work accidents, illustrated with jurisprudential examples and taking into account the jurisprudence of the CJEU regarding Directive 2003/88/EC. Concluding, given the conditions in which team-building activities are imposed on employees by the employer, under the aspects of the period, place, and way of organization, pursuing a specific goal of improving labor relations, the workers being at the disposal of the employer, without being able to freely dispose of the time declared as rest time and to devote themselves to their own interests, the time allocated to these activities should be considered working time within the meaning of Directive 2003/88, so only for the purpose of protecting health and safety at work. |
| Date: | 2023–12–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:z3564&r=inv |
| By: | Enrique Ide; Eduard Talamas |
| Abstract: | How does Artificial Intelligence (AI) affect the organization of work and the structure of wages? We study this question in a model where heterogeneous agents in terms of knowledge--humans and machines--endogenously sort into hierarchical teams: Less knowledgeable agents become "workers" (i.e., execute routine tasks), while more knowledgeable agents become "managers" (i.e., specialize in problem solving). When AI's knowledge is equivalent to that of a pre-AI worker, AI displaces humans from routine work into managerial work compared to the pre-AI outcome. In contrast, when AI's knowledge is that of a pre-AI manager, it shifts humans from managerial work to routine work. AI increases total human labor income, but it necessarily creates winners and losers: When AI's knowledge is low, only the most knowledgeable humans experience income gains. In contrast, when AI's knowledge is high, both extremes of the knowledge distribution benefit. In any case, the introduction of AI harms the middle class. |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2312.05481&r=inv |
| By: | Rafael Andersson Lipcsey |
| Abstract: | As AI adoption accelerates, research on its economic impacts becomes a salient source to consider for stakeholders of AI policy. Such research is however still in its infancy, and one in need of review. This paper aims to accomplish just that and is structured around two main themes. Firstly, the path towards transformative AI, and secondly the wealth created by it. It is found that sectors most embedded into global value chains will drive economic impacts, hence special attention is paid to the international trade perspective. When it comes to the path towards transformative AI, research is heterogenous in its predictions, with some predicting rapid, unhindered adoption, and others taking a more conservative view based on potential bottlenecks and comparisons to past disruptive technologies. As for wealth creation, while some agreement is to be found in AI's growth boosting abilities, predictions on timelines are lacking. Consensus exists however around the dispersion of AI induced wealth, which is heavily biased towards developed countries due to phenomena such as anchoring and reduced bargaining power of developing countries. Finally, a shortcoming of economic growth models in failing to consider AI risk is discovered. Based on the review, a calculated, and slower adoption rate of AI technologies is recommended. |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2312.06679&r=inv |