|
on Investment |
| By: | Julian di Giovanni; Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan; Alvaro Silva; Muhammed A. Yildirim; Muhammed Ali Yildirim |
| Abstract: | We estimate a multi-country multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of domestic inflation during 2020–2023 in several countries, including the United States. The model matches observed inflation together with sector-level prices and wages. We further measure the relative importance of different types of shocks on inflation across countries over time. The key mechanism, the international transmission of demand, supply and energy shocks through global linkages helps us to match the behavior of the USD/Euro exchange rate. The quantification exercise yields four key findings. First, negative supply shocks to factors of production, labor and intermediate inputs, initially sparked inflation in 2020–2021. Global supply chains and complementarities in production played an amplification role in this initial phase. Second, positive aggregate demand shocks, due to stimulative policies, widened demand-supply imbalances, amplifying inflation further during 2021–2022. Third, the reallocation of consumption between goods and service sectors, a relative sector-level demand shock, played a role in transmitting these imbalances across countries through the global trade and production network. Fourth, global energy shocks have differential impacts on the US relative to other countries’ inflation rates. Further, complementarities between energy and other inputs to production play a particularly important role in the quantitative impact of these shocks on inflation. |
| Keywords: | inflation, international spillovers, global production network |
| JEL: | E20 E30 E60 F10 F40 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10789&r=inv |
| By: | Christophe Midler (i3-CRG - Centre de recherche en gestion i3 - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Académie des Technologies); Marc Alochet (i3-CRG - Centre de recherche en gestion i3 - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | In China, Europe and the United States, the transition from thermal to battery electric vehicles is ongoing under the effect of technology forcing regulations. We investigate whether and how those related to high voltage batteries could shape the future of the automotive industry. Wile China is leading the way, Europe and the United States, with very high levels of funding, are racing against time to catch up and develop a sustainable battery value chain controlled by local champions. As the U.S. resorts to protectionism, we hypothesize that we may see the emergence of three geographic production hubs, ending the globalization of the battery industry. |
| Keywords: | High voltage battery, zero emission vehicle, regulation, China, Europe, United States, Battery manufacturing, battery supply chain, localization |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04303575&r=inv |
| By: | Ahrens, Achim; Hangartner, Dominik; Casalis, Marine; Sánchez, Rodrigo |
| Abstract: | Since 2015, over 7 million Venezuelans have been forced to leave their homes, seeking refuge predominantly in neighboring countries across Latin America and the Caribbean. The displacement is typically accompanied by vulnerability and marginalization, yet there is a scarcity of actionable evidence on how to alleviate poverty among immigrants and refugees and facilitate their economic, political, and social integration. This study evaluates the impact of a cash-based intervention (CBI) on multidimensional integration outcomes of highly vulnerable Venezuelan immigrants in Peru. Utilizing an original panel survey of beneficiaries and the staggered rollout of the program, which provided a one-time payment of 760 soles (approximately 190 USD or 74% of the monthly minimum wage), we estimate that the CBI increased the IPL-24 index---an overall measure of immigrant integration capturing several dimensions---by at least 0.12 standard deviations. This increase is mainly driven by improvements in the navigational, social and economic components of the IPL-24 index. Moreover, the CBI boosted self-employment by 2 percentage points and raised the intention to emigrate from Peru by 1.2 percentage points. Additionally, our heterogeneity analysis reveals that the benefits of the fixed-amount cash payment diminish significantly with the size of the household. We discuss how these findings inform the design of future CBI programs aimed at supporting vulnerable immigrant and refugee families. |
| Date: | 2023–11–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5sh8a&r=inv |
| By: | Dionisius, Regina; Illiger, Amelie; Kriesi, Irene; Neumann, Jörg; Müller, Marianne |
| Abstract: | Deutschland und die Schweiz hatten lange Zeit ähnliche (Aus-)Bildungssysteme mit klarer Trennung zwischen allgemeiner und beruflicher Bildung. Beide Länder haben ihre Systeme an die Herausforderungen der Globalisierung und des Strukturwandels auf verschiedene Weise angepasst. Vor diesem Hintergrund vergleichen wir den Trend zu höheren Bildungsabschlüssen und die relative Bedeutung der Abschlüsse in Sekundarstufe II und der Tertiärstufe zwischen 2005 und 2019. Die Diskussion der Gemeinsamkeiten und Unterschiede erfolgt in Anlehnung an die vier neuralgischen Punkte von Busemeyer/Trampusch (2012). Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass sich die Sekundarstufe II in der Schweiz eher pluralisiert und die Tertiärstufe sich distinktiv entwickelt hat. In Deutschland ist eine umgekehrte Entwicklung zu beobachten. |
| Keywords: | Weiterführende Schule, Bildungsabschluss, Vergleich, Deutschland, Schweiz |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bibbfb:280275&r=inv |
| By: | Vedev, Alexey (Ведев, Алексей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Silchuk, Aleksandra (Сильчук, Александра) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Tuzov, Konstantin (Тузов, Константин) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kovaleva, Marina (Ковалева, Марина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Eremkin, Vladimir (Ерёмкин, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The relevance of the topic is due to the fact that the sharp changes in the sectors of the economy caused by the coronavirus pandemic have affected all existing forecasts of socioeconomic development. At the same time, a number of new support measures have appeared, both at the federal level and at the regional level. In this regard, it is necessary to analyze the current support measures aimed at the development of economic sectors, taking into account risks and opportunities, which seems to be the most important task for the Russian economy. The purpose of the study was to study the effectiveness of industry support measures in a crisis caused by non-economic reasons. The subject of the study is the effectiveness of support measures in the context of the coronavirus pandemic and their contribution to the restoration of the economic activity of the Russian Federation. The research method or methodology is to conduct a comprehensive economic analysis, a review of research literature (Russian and foreign), an analysis of foreign practices in providing business support, an assessment of financial stability and the effectiveness of support measures in a pandemic As a result of the work carried out, the effectiveness of support measures in the context of the coronavirus pandemic and their contribution to the restoration of economic activity, both in foreign countries and in federal and regional support measures for Russia, were analyzed. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the analysis and application of the experience of foreign countries in Russian realities and the study of the contribution to the Russian economy of the impact of existing support measures. The recommendations obtained as a result of the study indicate the need to calculate the effectiveness of support measures before its introduction. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics, support measures, financial market, medium-term planning, fiscal system, recovery growth |
| JEL: | C53 E17 E37 E47 G17 |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220298&r=inv |
| By: | Justin Sandefur (Center for Global Development); Thomaz Alvares de Azevedo (MSI, A Tetra Tech Company); Xiaomin Ju (Center for Global Development); Thi Le (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | Over two decades and dozens of countries, the United States Agency for International Development has refined a package of support for early-grade reading, often referred to as “structured pedagogy”, which includes textbooks, teacher training, coaching, and lesson plans. Programs are implemented by American companies in public schools and evaluated using harmonized learning metrics, yielding a portfolio of 12 experimental and 15 difference-in-difference evaluations. Results vary widely, but on average programs increase oral reading fluency by approximately 3 words from a base of 13 correct words per minute in early primary. The average program costs about $200 per pupil, roughly equivalent to doubling school spending. Larger programs cost much less per pupil, but yield (insignificantly) smaller impacts. Newer programs yield somewhat bigger impacts, consistent with the idea that program evaluation can improve the quality of aid through iterative learning. |
| Keywords: | education, early-grade reading assessments, impact evaluation, foreign aid, USAID |
| JEL: | F35 I25 O15 |
| Date: | 2023–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:668&r=inv |
| By: | Hirvonen, Johannes; Kässi, Otto; Ropponen, Olli |
| Abstract: | Abstract This paper examines the labour market impacts of Finland’s initial COVID-19 subsidy program, designed to mitigate the economic fallout of the pandemic. Utilising a novel and comprehensive dataset and a judge-leniency instrumental variables design, we analyse the effects of these subsidies at both the firm and worker levels. Our findings reveal nuanced effects: the program increased the wage sum in the treated firms and decreased the risk of unemployment. On the other hand, the subsidies reduced labour productivity in treated firms, potentially hindering creative destruction. At the worker level, subsidised employees fared better in subsequent years than their non-subsidised counterparts, with slight increases in annual salaries and a higher likelihood of being employed. However, these workers were more likely to be employed in lower-productivity firms. This paper contributes to our understanding of the implications of fiscal interventions during crises and provides critical insights for shaping future economic policies in similar contexts. |
| Keywords: | Business Finland subsidy program, Crisis subsidies, COVID-19, Fiscal policy, Productivity, Unemployment |
| JEL: | H25 H32 E24 |
| Date: | 2023–12–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:wpaper:111&r=inv |
| By: | Baum, Christopher F. (Boston College, DIW Berlin and CESIS); Lööf, Hans (Royal Institute of Technology and CESIS); Stephan, Andreas (Linnaeus University and DIW Berlin); Zimmermann, Klaus F. (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, CEPR and GLO) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the wage earnings of fully-employed refugee immigrants in Sweden. Using administrative employer-employee data from 1990 and onwards, about 100, 000 refugee immigrants who arrived between 1980 and 1996 and were granted asylum are compared to a matched sample of native-born workers. Employing recentered influence function (RIF) quantile regressions for the period 2011–2015 to wage earnings, the occupational task-based Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition approach shows that refugees perform better than natives at the median wage, controlling for individual and firm characteristics. This overperformance is due to female refugee immigrants, who have higher wages than comparable native-born female peers up to the 8th decile of the wage distribution. Refugee immigrant females perform better than native females across all occupational tasks studied, including non-routine cognitive tasks. A remarkable similarity exists in the relative wage distributions among various refugee groups, suggesting that cultural differences and the length of time spent in the host country do not significantly affect their labor market performance. |
| Keywords: | refugees; wage earnings gap; occupational sorting; employer-employee data; correlated random effects model; Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition |
| JEL: | C23 F22 J24 J60 O15 |
| Date: | 2023–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cesisp:0496&r=inv |
| By: | Huma Javaid (Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, The University of Manchester); Xavier Castaner (Department of Strategy, Globalisation and Society, The University of Lausanne); Panos Desyllas (School of Management, The University of Bath); Orietta Marsili (School of Management, The University of Bath) |
| Abstract: | Based on information economics and organizational learning literatures, we investigate how information asymmetry and uncertainty regarding the value of technological resources of target firms influence the due diligence process after an acquisition announcement is made by the acquirer. We study how information asymmetry between the acquirer and target firm captured by the technological distance between the two firms’ patent portfolio extends the due diligence process. Additionally, we study how uncertainty about target firms’ technological resources explained by the pending patent applications of target firms tends to prolong the duration of due diligence. Further, we argue that business similarity reduces information asymmetry between the acquirer and target firm and shortens the duration of due diligence. We test the predictions on a sample of acquisitions of privately held technology firms in the UK and find a significantly positive effect of targets’ pending patent applications on due diligence duration that is amplified by technological distance but reduced by business similarity. The findings of the study contribute to the M&A literature that higher information asymmetry and uncertainty lengthen the due diligence process of the acquirers when evaluating prospective target firms. |
| Keywords: | Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A), Due diligence, Information asymmetry, Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdj:smioir:2023-02&r=inv |
| By: | De Pablo Juan Carlos |
| Abstract: | Henry Kissinger nació el 27 de mayo de 1923. Las líneas que siguen fueron inspiradas en la lectura de sus principales obras, de las cuales me declaro incondicional admirador, por todo lo que aprendí. Específicamente, me refiero a los 3 volúmenes de memorias, que reflejan su paso por el gobierno de Estados Unidos (White House years, publicado en 1979; Years of upheaval, 1982; y Years of renewal, 1999); así como otras, más conceptuales, pero que también se nutrieron por su experiencia en la función pública (Diplomacy, publicado en 1994; On China, 2011; World order, 2014; y Leadership, 2022). Estudié durante la década de 1960 (UCA, entre 1960 y 1964; Harvard entre 1966 y 1968). Probablemente, mucho de lo que aprendí de Kissinger, le resulta obvio a quien estudió, por ejemplo, administración de empresas, sociología o ciencia política. Existen las decisiones individuales y las decisiones colectivas. El liderazgo se refiere a las decisiones colectivas, ámbito en el cual las decisiones no se imponen. En el caso de las pulseadas entre países, el liderazgo no sólo tiene que ver con el poder de convicción y persuasión, sino con las armas (bélicas, económicas, etc.) con las cuales actúa cada parte. Enfatizar la importancia del liderazgo va mucho más allá del hecho de que las decisiones las adoptan seres humanos. Esta cuestión es hoy particularmente relevante, a la luz de la discusión referida a quién adopta mejor las decisiones, si los seres humanos de carne y hueso, o los algoritmos. Probablemente el mejor resultado surja de una combinación de ambos. La historia complementa el análisis de estática comparativa, en la formación de los economistas. |
| JEL: | H1 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4642&r=inv |
| By: | Blanga-Gubbay, Michael; Rubínová, Stela |
| Abstract: | Using monthly data on trade in goods between January 2016 and May 2023, this study assesses the impact of recent shocks on the fragmentation of the global economy, looking in particular at the dynamics of friend-shoring, near-shoring and decoupling between the world's two largest economies. Results based on gravity model regressions with high-dimensional fixed effects show that trade flows have become more sensitive to geopolitical distance since the start of the war in Ukraine, leading to the first signs of overall trade fragmentation along geopolitical lines, i.e. friend-shoring. Trade in goods between hypothetical East and West blocs has grown 4 per cent slower than intra-bloc trade since the start of the war. On the other hand, we find no evidence of an increased regionalisation of world trade since the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic or the war in Ukraine. Therefore, our results suggest that near-shoring strategies did not have a large impact on world trade. Finally, our results confirm that the increased trade tensions between the world's two largest economies have significantly reduced their bilateral trade, a trend that has been exacerbated by the geopolitical tensions and uncertainty created by the war in Ukraine. |
| Keywords: | global trade outlook, empirical studies of trade, fragmentation, decoupling |
| JEL: | F01 F14 F52 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wtowps:280428&r=inv |
| By: | Lucas Herrenbrueck, Zijian Wang (Simon Fraser University) |
| Abstract: | The Euler equation of a representative consumer – or its long-run counterpart, the Fisher equation – is at the heart of modern macroeconomics. But it prices a bond – short-term, perfectly safe, yet perfectly illiquid – that does not exist in reality, where most safe assets can be easily traded or pledged as collateral to obtain money, or even for goods and services directly, and their prices reflect their moneyness as much as their dividends. In this paper, we deploy a New Monetarist framework to capture these facts and derive implications for monetary policy and asset pricing. Consistent with the model, we find that the return on a hypothetical illiquid bond, estimated via inflation and consumption growth, behaves very differently from the return on safe and liquid assets. This distinction helps resolve a great number of puzzles associated with the Euler/Fisher equation, and points to a better way of understanding how monetary policy affects the economy |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sfu:sfudps:dp23-11&r=inv |
| By: | Dench, Daniel (Georgia Institute of Technology); Pineda-Torres, Mayra (Georgia Institute of Technology); Myers, Caitlin Knowles (Middlebury College) |
| Abstract: | The U.S. Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization sparked the most profound transformation of the landscape of abortion access in 50 years. We provide the first estimates of the effects of this decision on fertility using a pre-registered synthetic difference-in-differences design applied to newly released provisional natality data for the first half of 2023. The results indicate that states with abortion bans experienced an average increase in births of 2.3 percent relative to states where abortion was not restricted. |
| Keywords: | abortion, Dobbs, fertility, power analysis |
| JEL: | I11 I12 I18 J13 K23 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16608&r=inv |
| By: | Karsten O. Chipeniuk; Gulnara Nolan (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the effect of monetary policy shocks on the distribution of wealth using a stylised model of the New Zealand economy. We find that a 50 basis point reduction in the OCR leads to a more equal distribution of wealth in the economy – with the Gini coefficient falling by approximately 0.5 percentage points. This drop occurs gradually and reaches its trough after 5 quarters, remaining persistently lower thereafter. NB. The key missing channel in the model used in this Analytical Note is asset prices, which may also change following a monetary policy shock - this is the portfolio composition (capital gains) channel, which will be investigated in future work. In New Zealand there has been a sharp increase in house prices over the past 18 months, in part due to lower mortgage interest rates. This research aims to take initial steps in analysing the distributional implications of low interest rates by building a macroeconomic model that captures changes in savings and income flows of different households. The version of the model used in this note does not yet capture the impact of capital gains, but future versions will aim to cast more light on asset prices. About the research programme: The Reserve Bank is carrying out a wide range of research about the different ways changes in interest rates could affect the distribution of wealth and income in New Zealand. Each research paper is aimed at giving the bank (and other decision-makers) parts of the jigsaw puzzle, to help our understanding, rather than a complete picture all at once. |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nzb:nzbans:2022/01&r=inv |
| By: | Spektor Stanislav (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University); Nazarova Ekaterina (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University); Akhtemzyanov Rafael (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University) |
| Abstract: | The distinction between the concepts of market power and bargaining power is not only a methodological, but also a practical problem. The paper describes the currently existing approaches to understanding these phenomena. An attempt has been made to include not only market power, but also bargaining power in the theoretical model. In addition, game-theoretic models of interaction between market participants with an asymmetric distribution of market power and bargaining power between them are considered. Also in the work in the context of the ratio of bargaining power between agents one of the classical economic experiments is considered. The article describes real situations in which a correct understanding of market power and bargaining power was very important for making a decision on the need to apply antitrust regulation measures. Antimonopoly regulation is currently focused on considering only market power, however, when determining the justification for the use of certain influences, it should be borne in mind that manifestations of market power may be similar to the effects of asymmetry in the distribution of bargaining power, and it is also necessary to clearly distinguish between these phenomena. At the same time, an individual approach is required for each case to assess the impact on public welfare of both the phenomena themselves and the regulatory influences applied. Length: 33 pages |
| Keywords: | market power, bargaining power, antitrust policy, competition, bilateral monopoly, experimental economics |
| JEL: | K21 L40 L41 L50 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upa:wpaper:0059&r=inv |
| By: | Eko Arief Yogama (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, 9 Mappin Street, Sheffield, S1 4DT, UK.); Daniel J. Gray (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, 9 Mappin Street, Sheffield, S1 4DT, UK.); Matthew D. Rablen (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, 9 Mappin Street, Sheffield, S1 4DT, UK.) |
| Abstract: | We conducted a randomised controlled trial in Indonesia to evaluate the effect of three intervention letters on tax penalty compliance behaviour. Over 10, 000 individual taxpayers are randomly assigned to receive either a deterrence, information, or simplification letter, or no letter. Our results indicate that simplification, which makes paying a penalty less burdensome administratively by providing billing codes to pay the penalties, yields the highest probability of timely settlement, increasing compliance by 32 per cent compared to the control group. Deterrence also positively impacts penalty compliance, increasing timely settlement rates by 27 per cent. The least effective intervention is the information letter. Although associated with a 12 per cent increase in tax compliance, this effect is only statistically significant at the 10 per cent confidence level. Our results suggest that strategic messaging by tax authorities in developing countries can be a cost-effective tool for improving tax penalty payment compliance. |
| Keywords: | Tax penalties; Tax compliance; RCT; Simplification; Deterrence; Information; Indonesia |
| JEL: | C93 D91 H26 Z18 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2023023&r=inv |
| By: | Fischer, Sabine |
| Abstract: | Direkte Verhandlungen über einen Waffenstillstand im Krieg Russlands gegen die Ukraine brachen bereits nach wenigen Monaten ab. Heute versuchen Moskau und Kyjiw, durch diplomatische Initiativen den internationalen Kontext des Krieges in ihrem Sinne zu beeinflussen. Die russische Kriegsdiplomatie zielt darauf ab, den "kollektiven Westen" auf globaler Ebene zu schwächen. Dies soll dazu beitragen, dass die externe Unterstützung für die Ukraine zum Erliegen kommt. Die Ukraine arbeitet darauf hin, Russland zu isolieren. Derweil setzt Russland seinen völkerrechtswidrigen Angriffskrieg fort. Deutschland und seine Partner müssen die Ukraine weiter militärisch stärken, um künftige Waffenstillstandsverhandlungen überhaupt erst zu ermöglichen. |
| Keywords: | Russland, Ukraine, Krieg gegen die Ukraine, Friedensverhandlungen, Waffenstillstandsverhandlungen, Diplomatie, Kopenhagener Prozess, Bachmut, Black Sea Grain Initiative, BSGI, Grain from Ukraine, kollektiver Westen, Antikolonialismus, BRICS, Friedensformel, Kyiv Security Compact, security commitments, Sicherheitsgarantien |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:279947&r=inv |
| By: | Chakraborty, Somnath (Ruhr-Universität Bochum); Lederer, Johannes (Universität Hamburg); von Sachs, Rainer (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/ISBA, Belgium) |
| Abstract: | We develop a finite-sample theory for estimating the coefficients and for the prediction of multiple stable autoregressive processes that (i) share an unknown lag order but (ii) can differ in their individual sample sizes. Our technique is based on penalisation similar to hierarchical, overlapping group-Lasso but requires a new mathematical set-up to accommodate (i) and (ii). The set-up differs from existing work considerably, for example, in that we estimate the common lag order directly from the data rather than using extrinsic criteria. We prove that the estimated autoregressive processes enjoy stability, and we establish rates for both the estimation and prediction error that can outmatch the known rates in our setting. Our insights on the lag selection and the stability are also of interest for the case of individual autoregressive processes. |
| Keywords: | Autoregressive process ; effective noise ; statistical guarantees ; tuning parameter ; dual norm ; hierarchical-group norm ; group LASSO ; lag selection ; false discoveries ; regularised least square ; sample complexity ; stable AR process ; gaussian innovation ; restricted eigenvalue property |
| Date: | 2023–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aiz:louvad:2023037&r=inv |
| By: | Pedro H. Albuquerque (Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France and ACCELERATION & ADAPTATION, Aix-en-Provence, France); Sophie Albuquerque (Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, Département de philosophie et des arts, Trois-Rivières, Canada and Aix Marseille Univ, SMPM, Marseille, France and ACCELERATION & ADAPTATION, Aix-en-Provence, France) |
| Abstract: | Aims: we propose a sociotechnical taxonomy for the analysis of socioeconomic disruptions caused by technological innovations. Methodology: a transdisciplinary principled approach is used to build the taxonomy through categorization and characterization of technologies using concepts and definitions originating from cybernetics, occupational science, and economics. The sociotechnical taxonomy is then used, with the help of logical propositions, to connect the characteristics of different categories of technologies to their socioeconomic effects, for example their externalities. Results: we offer concrete illustrations of concepts and uses, and an Industry 5.0 case study as an application of the taxonomy. We suggest that the taxonomy can inform the analysis of opportunities and risks related to technological disruptions, specially of those that result from the rise of cognitive machines. |
| Keywords: | sociotechnical taxonomy, technological disruptions, technological innovations, automatic, autonomous, physical technology, cognitive technology, skill-enhancing, skill-replacing, externalities, Industry 5.0, cognitive machines, artificial intelligence, occupational science |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2323&r=inv |
| By: | Ye Yang; Osman Dogan; Suleyman Taspinar; Fei Jin |
| Abstract: | The matrix exponential spatial models exhibit similarities to the conventional spatial autoregressive model in spatial econometrics but offer analytical, computational, and interpretive advantages. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the literature on the estimation, inference, and model selection approaches for the cross-sectional matrix exponential spatial models. We discuss summary measures for the marginal effects of regressors and detail the matrix-vector product method for efficient estimation. Our aim is not only to summarize the main findings from the spatial econometric literature but also to make them more accessible to applied researchers. Additionally, we contribute to the literature by introducing some new results. We propose an M-estimation approach for models with heteroskedastic error terms and demonstrate that the resulting M-estimator is consistent and has an asymptotic normal distribution. We also consider some new results for model selection exercises. In a Monte Carlo study, we examine the finite sample properties of various estimators from the literature alongside the M-estimator. |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2311.14813&r=inv |
| By: | Faninam, Farzan (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Huisman, Kuno (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Kort, Peter (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Vera, J. C. (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research) |
| Keywords: | investment analysis; real options; reinforcement learning |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:e02a7330-d8ca-4e1e-9564-f59e7848539a&r=inv |
| By: | Rathgeb, Philip; Hopkin, Jonathan |
| Keywords: | populism; Eurozone; Euro crisis; COVID-19 pandemic; Next generation EU; coronavirus; 392405337 |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2023–11–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120673&r=inv |
| By: | Takanori Adachi |
| Abstract: | The experience of unknown events such as financial crises and infectious disease crises, which are black swans that appear suddenly, has revealed the limitations of measuring risk under a fixed probability measure. In order to solve this problem, the importance of so-called ambiguity, which allows the probability measure itself to change, has long been recognized in the financial world. On the other hand, there have been many studies on subjective probability measures in the field of economics, including Savage's work. But even in those cases, the studies are based on the two levels of uncertainty: risk when a conventional probability measure (probability distribution) is known, and ambiguity due to the fact that the subjective probability measure (prior) can be taken arbitrarily in a certain space. In this study, we express n-layer uncertainty, which we call hierarchical uncertainty by introducing a new concept called uncertainty spaces which is an extended concept of probability spaces. We use uncertainty spaces for providing examples that illustrate Ellsberg's paradox. Next, we construct an endofunctor S of Mble, the category formed by measurable spaces and measurable functions between them, in order to embed a given set of uncertainty spaces into it. The endofunctor S maps a measurable space to a set of capacities defined on the space, where a capacity is a non-additive probability measure introduced by Choquet. After developing n-layer uncertainty analysis through uncertainty spaces, we construct the universal uncertainty space as a limit of the sequence of measurable spaces representing multi-layer uncertainty. This universal uncertainty space can serve as a basis for multi-layer uncertainty theory because it has as its projections the uncertainty spaces of all levels. |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2311.14219&r=inv |
| By: | Castro-Pires, Henrique (University of Surrey); Mello, Marco (University of Aberdeen); Moscelli, Giuseppe (University of Surrey) |
| Abstract: | We exploit the 2016 Brexit referendum as a migration shock to evaluate the impact of reduced labour supply on the provision of hospital care. After the referendum, a sharp drop in the number of early-career new joiners from Europe resulted in a considerable decrease in the share of EU nurses in the English NHS. Using an enclave instrumental variable empirical strategy, we find that emergency readmission rates increased, and more so in hospital organizations more exposed to the missing inflow of new joiners. A theoretical model shows that this is consistent with a decrease in the quality of new hires. |
| Keywords: | labour supply, workers' mobility, immigration, patient care, hospital quality, Brexit |
| JEL: | J45 J61 J68 I11 C26 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16616&r=inv |