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on Investment |
| By: | Chaohua Dong; Jiti Gao; Bin Peng; Yayi Yan |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we consider estimation and inference for both the multi-index parameters and the link function involved in a class of semiparametric multi–index models via deep neural networks (DNNs). We contribute to the design of DNN by i) providing more transparency for practical implementation, ii) defining different types of sparsity, iii) showing the differentiability, iv) pointing out the set of effective parameters, and v) offering a new variant of rectified linear activation function (ReLU), etc. Asymptotic properties for the joint estimates of both the index parameters and the link functions are established, and a feasible procedure for the purpose of inference is also proposed. We conduct extensive numerical studies to examine the finite-sample performance of the estimation methods, and we also evaluate the empirical relevance and applicability of the proposed models and estimation methods to real data. |
| Keywords: | asymptotic theory, multi-index model, ReLU, semiparametric regression |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msh:ebswps:2023-21&r=inv |
| By: | Arne J. Nagengast; Yoto V. Yotov |
| Abstract: | We nest an extended two-way fixed effect (ETWFE) estimator for staggered difference-in-differences within the structural gravity model. To test the ETWFE, we estimate the effects of regional trade agreements (RTAs). The results suggest that RTA estimates in the current gravity literature may be biased downward (by more than 50% in our sample). Sensitivity analyses confirm the robustness of our main findings and demonstrate the applicability of our methods in different settings. We expect the ETWFE methods to have significant implications for the estimates of other policy variables in the trade literature and for gravity regressions on migration and FDI flows. |
| Keywords: | staggered difference-in-differences, gravity model, trade agreements |
| JEL: | C13 C23 F10 F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10782&r=inv |
| By: | Khurana, Saloni (Indian Institute of Foreign Trade (IIFT)); Mahajan, Kanika (Ashoka University); Sen, Kunal (University of Manchester) |
| Abstract: | Using nationally representative data on employment and earnings, this paper documents a fall in wage inequality in India over the last two decades. It then examines the role played by increasing minimum wages for the lowest skilled workers in India in contributing to the observed decline. Exploiting regional variation in changes in minimum wages over time in the country, we find that an increase in minimum wages by one percent led to an increase in wages for workers in the lowest quintile by 0.17%. This effect is smaller at upper wage quintiles and insignicant for the highest wage quintile. Counterfactual wage estimations show that the increase in minimum wages explains 26% of the decline in wage inequality in India during 1999-2018. These findings underscore the important role played by rising minimum wages in reducing wage disparities in India. |
| Keywords: | minimum wages, wage inequality, India |
| JEL: | J31 J38 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16600&r=inv |
| By: | Bilbiie, F. O.; Trabandt, M. |
| Abstract: | We show an equivalence result in the standard representative agent New Keynesian model after demand shocks: assuming sticky prices and flexible wages yields identical allocations for GDP, consumption, labor, inflation and interest rates to the opposite case flexible prices and sticky wages. This equivalence result arises if the price and wage Phillips curves-slopes are identical and generalizes to any pair of price and wage Phillips curve slopes such that their sum and product are identical. Nevertheless, the cyclical implications for profits and wages are substantially different. We discuss how the equivalence breaks when these factor-distributional implications matter for aggregate allocations, e.g. in New Keynesian models with heterogeneous agents, endogenous firm entry, and non-constant returns to scale in production. |
| Keywords: | inflation, Interest Rate, New Keynesian Model, Observational Equivalence, Output, Sticky Prices, Sticky Wages |
| JEL: | E10 E30 E50 |
| Date: | 2023–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2369&r=inv |
| By: | Yanfei Li (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Jia Zhao (Hunan University of Technology and Business); Jianjun Yan (Hunan University of Technology and Business) |
| Abstract: | Currently, major economies are competing on the technological and industrial development of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). This paper discusses the relationship between the patent value of FCEVs and the commercialisation of this technology. First, the patent data of FCEVs are analysed, focusing on data of China, Germany, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the United States. Then, the paper constructs the FCEV patent value index framework based on the technological value and economic value of patents. Finally, this paper conducts an empirical study to analyse the influence of patent value on the development of the FCEV industry. It is found that, under the current situation, individual patent value can significantly promote the development of the FCEV industry, whilst the gross patent value of a certain country even has a negative impact. In addition, the increase of hydrogen infrastructure, research and development expenditure, and market demand will significantly promote the development of the FCEV industry. The development level of related industries such as the battery electric vehicle industry and the reduction of environmental pollution are also significant drivers of the development of FCEVs |
| Keywords: | FCEV, patent value, industry development |
| Date: | 2023–06–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2023-05&r=inv |
| By: | Nikolova, Milena (University of Groningen); Lepinteur, Anthony (University of Luxembourg); Cnossen, Femke (University of Groningen) |
| Abstract: | Using survey data from 20 European countries, we construct novel worker-level indices of routine, abstract, social, and physical tasks across 20 European countries, which we combine with industry-level robotization exposure. Our conceptual framework builds on the insight that robotization simultaneously replaces, creates, and modifies workers' tasks and studies how these forces impact workers' job content. We rely on instrumental variable techniques and show that robotization reduces physically demanding activities. Yet, this reduction in manual work does not coincide with a shift to more challenging and interesting tasks. Instead, robotization makes workers' tasks more routine, while diminishing the opportunities for cognitively challenging work and human contact. The adverse impact of robotization on social tasks is particularly pronounced for highly skilled and educated workers. Our study offers a unique worker-centric viewpoint on the interplay between technology and tasks, highlighting nuances that macro-level indicators overlook. As such, it sheds light on the mechanisms underpinning the impact of robotization on labor markets. |
| Keywords: | robotization, technological change, worker-level data, tasks |
| JEL: | J01 J30 J32 J81 I30 I31 M50 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16610&r=inv |
| By: | Reif, Julian |
| Abstract: | Die Buchungsplattform Airbnb ist zu einem relevanten Buchungskanal im Tourismus weltweit geworden. Mit Blick auf die vielfältigen sozio-ökonomischen Auswirkungen der Plattform ist die Kenntnis über die räumliche Lage des Airbnb-Angebots von hoher Bedeutung. Für Deutschland gibt es bisher keine umfassende, auf die räumliche Verteilung des Airbnb-Angebotes abzielende, Analyse. Der vorliegende Artikel untersucht daher die räumliche Konzentration von Airbnb-Angeboten in Deutschland und den vier einwohnerstärkstem Städten Deutschlands. Erstmals werden neben visuellen Analysen auch mit Hilfe von räumlicher Statistik Maßzahlen zur Airbnb-Konzentration vorgelegt. Dabei wird die Methodik der räumlichen Autokorrelation verwendet. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass es eine starke positive räumliche Konzentration des Airbnb-Angebots gibt. Bundesweit zeigen sich über 2.200 statistisch signifikante Airbnb-Hotspots, die sich i. d. R. an der Verteilung der deutschen Großstädte orientieren. Der Blick auf die Millionenstädte ergibt ebenfalls eine starkes räumliches Konzentrationsmaß. In Berlin sind die Airbnb-Listings am stärksten konzentriert, gefolgt von Köln, Hamburg und München. Die Ergebnisse dienen als Grundlage für weitere Forschung und als Ansatz für planerische Fragestellungen. |
| Abstract: | Airbnb has become a relevant booking channel for tourism. As the socio-economic impacts of the platform are much discussed, knowledge about the spatial location of Airbnb-Listings is of high importance. However, so far there is no comprehensive analysis of the spatial distribution of Airbnb offers in Germany. This paper, therefore, examines the spatial concentration of Airbnb in Germany and the four largest cities. For the first time, measures of Airbnb concentration are presented using spatial autocorrelation. Findings reveal that there is a strong spatial concentration of Airbnb-Listings in Germany and the four major cities with over a million inhabitants. We found over 2, 200 statistically significant Airbnb hotspots, which are generally oriented towards the distribution of the major German cities. Furthermore, Airbnb offers are most concentrated in Berlin, followed by Cologne, Hamburg, and Munich. Results serve as a basis for further research and as an approach to planning issues. |
| Keywords: | Räumliche Autokorrelation, Moran's I, Airbnb-Listings, Big Data, Städtetourismus, Spatial Autocorrelation, Moran's I, Airbnb-Listings, Big Data, Urban Tourism |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ditfwp:280143&r=inv |
| By: | Alexandra Bykova (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Branimir Jovanović (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Nina Vujanović |
| Abstract: | This issue of the wiiw Monthly Report replaces our earlier series of the wiiw FDI Report. FDI in Central, East and Southeast Europe Data availability and preliminary results for 2022 by Alexandra Bykova FDI inflows into CESEE countries, excluding Russia, grew by 10.8% last year. Performance was highly uneven across the countries of the region. Russia’s isolation due to its war in Ukraine led to large-scale disinvestment of EUR 40bn, according to preliminary estimates. Preliminary FDI data for 2022 are available from the wiiw FDI Database as a first FDI data release this year. Data revisions and FDI data by partner and by economic activity will be released later, in autumn. FDI has been holding up, but the outlook is getting cloudier by Olga Pindyuk In contrast to the global trends, FDI inflows in CESEE increased in 2022, apart from in Russia and Ukraine. However, recent trends in greenfield investment and mergers and acquisitions signal a worsening of investment prospects. Southeast Europe is emerging as the most dynamic sub-region in terms of FDI attraction. Spurred by digitalisation and green transition developments, investors in the region have become increasingly interested in the renewable energy and electronic components sectors. What lies behind the strong FDI inflows in the Western Balkans? by Branimir Jovanović The six Western Balkan economies stood out as top performers in terms of FDI inflows within the Central, East and Southeast Europe region in 2022. However, a closer examination reveals a more nuanced picture regarding the composition and characteristics of investments, prompting questions about the overall advantages and long-term sustainability of the inflows. Although the region is projected to continue to attract substantial FDI in the near future, it is likely that the pace will decelerate from the remarkable performance witnessed in 2022. Deriving the underlying FDI trend in CESEE by Nina Vujanović FDI has been pivotal for the growth of CESEE economies. However, the patterns of FDI flows have been highly volatile. To allow policy makers to draw sound conclusions, we derive the underlying FDI trend for the CESEE region. The results show that, although the trend has consistently been upward since 1997, shocks caused by the global financial crisis, COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine have had a strong impact. Forecasts of main economic indicators for Central, East and Southeast Europe for 2023-2025 |
| Keywords: | FDI inflows; FDI outflows; FDI stocks; FDI by instrument of financing; greenfield investment; M&As; FDI by components; FDI by partner; FDI by sector; underlying FDI trend; intra-company loans |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:mpaper:mr:2023-05&r=inv |
| By: | Charles, Constantin; Frydman, Cary; Kilic, Mete |
| Abstract: | We experimentally study the transmission of subjective expectations into actions. Subjects in our experiment report valuations that are far too insensitive to their expectations, relative to the prediction from a frictionless model. We propose that the insensitivity is driven by a noisy cognitive process that prevents subjects from precisely computing asset valuations. The empirical link between subjective expectations and actions becomes stronger as subjective expectations approach rational expectations. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating weak transmission into belief-based asset pricing models. Finally, we discuss how cognitive noise can provide a microfoundation for inelastic demand in the stock market. |
| Keywords: | 1749824 |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2023–10–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120788&r=inv |
| By: | Montse Gomendi0 |
| Abstract: | The information provided by international surveys is essential to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the Spanish education system, since one of its unique features is the lack of national standardized evaluations. Historically, Spain has lagged behind most other European countries in terms of the rate of expansion of the education system, the increase in years of schooling and the lengthening of compulsory education. When convergence was eventually achieved, Spain continued to focus its efforts on increasing access to tertiary education and pre-school, to the extent that it has surpassed most European countries in these quantitative targets. Unfortunately, much effort has been placed on inputs with little regard for outcomes. |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2023-35&r=inv |
| By: | Samuel Bryson; Kwabena Adu-Ababio; Evaristo Mwale; John Rand |
| Abstract: | We investigate the behavioural responses of individual taxpayers to changes in marginal personal income tax rates applying empirical bunching methodology to tax administrative data from Zambia over the period from 2014 to 2021. We find evidence for excess bunching at the first kink in the tax schedule for all years but less evidence of bunching at the second and third thresholds. While bunching is considerable and behavioural responses are observed to changes in the location of the kinks over time, bunching at reference points ('round-number bunching') also appears large. |
| Keywords: | Personal income tax, Zambia, Income distribution, Tax data |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2023-142&r=inv |
| By: | International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) |
| Abstract: | The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi with the goal of providing clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. The reports are intended as a resource for those interested in maize markets in Malawi, namely producers, traders, consumers, policy makers, and other agricultural stakeholders. |
| Keywords: | MALAWI, SOUTHERN AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, maize, market prices, retail prices, food prices |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:masspr:october2023&r=inv |
| By: | Black, B.; French, E.; McCauley, J.; Song, J. |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effect of Disability Insurance and Supplemental Security Income receipt on mortality for individuals on the margin of being allowed versus denied benefits. Exploiting the random assignment of administrative law judges to disability insurance cases, we find that benefit allowance increases 10-year mortality rates by 2.8 percentage points for marginal beneficiaries. However, using a Marginal Treatment Effects approach, we and evidence that benefit receipt reduces mortality for inframarginal beneficiaries, who are typically less healthy than marginal beneficiaries. Furthermore, we find suggestive evidence that allowance reduces mortality among those with expensive health conditions such as cancer. |
| Keywords: | Disability, Benefits, Mortality |
| JEL: | H51 H55 I12 I13 J14 J22 |
| Date: | 2023–11–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2375&r=inv |
| By: | Juhana Hukkinen (Monetary Policy and Research Department of Bank of Finland); Matti Viren (Monetary Policy and Research Department of Bank of Finland & Economics Department of University of Turku) |
| Abstract: | The failure to predict the surge in inflation in 2021 raises questions about whether we are better equipped to anticipate a future decline in inflation. What tools do we intend to use for predicting the trajectory of inflation? Are we still primarily relying on survey data regarding inflation expectations, and are we still employing a Calvo-type structure to model inflation, in which only the intensive margin (the size of price increases) adjusts in response to changes in demand and supply? We would like to emphasize that our highly disaggregated consumer price data for the Euro area, consisting of 280 commodity categories, strongly suggests that price increases (inflation) are influenced not only by aggregate trends but also by sector-specific developments that result in state-dependent price adjustments. These factors may lead to more volatile fluctuations in the inflation rate. Furthermore, these reactions do not appear to be entirely symmetric when it comes to rising and falling inflation. When the inflation rate is close to zero, the role of state-dependent pricing is diminished, and nonlinearities become less significant. |
| Keywords: | inflation, state-dependent pricing, menu costs |
| JEL: | D22 E31 F41 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp163&r=inv |
| By: | Liqui-Lung, C. |
| Abstract: | I show how intersectionality, the interconnections of social organizations that create interdependent systems of disadvantage, plays a role in individual choice behavior when people use outcomes of others like them to cope with sources of noise in decision making they cannot control for. I analyze how the different dimensions of a social type interact in belief formation and choice behavior at the individual and aggregate level, and show how an intersectional lens sheds light on inequalities and patterns in aggregate choice behavior that are not visible with a one-dimensional lens. Finally, I illustrate how these insights could help explain the pitfalls we encounter in the evaluation of one-dimensional policy measures targeting the underrepresentation of social groups, and guide us in developing potentially more effective multidimensional approaches. |
| JEL: | D81 D91 Z13 |
| Date: | 2023–12–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2379&r=inv |