nep-inv New Economics Papers
on Investment
Issue of 2023‒09‒18
twelve papers chosen by
Daniela Cialfi, Università degli Studi di Teramo

  1. How institutions shape the economic returns of public investment in European regions By Inmaculada C. Alvarez; Javier Barbero; Luis Orea; Andrés Rodríguez-Pose
  2. Gendered effects of minimum wage By Di Nola, Alessandro; Haywood, Luke; Wang, Haomin
  3. Sources of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects of Incorporating Manufacturing Kohsetsushi : Evidence from panel data of technology extension By FUKUGAWA Nobuya
  4. Survival, Emergence, and Disappearance of Manufacturing Firms in the First Phase of Regional Revitalization (Japanese) By NAKAMURA Ryohei
  5. Addressing Bias in Politician Characteristic Regression Discontinuity Designs By Torres, Santiago
  6. Statement based on the 4 TH international conference on global food security – December 2020: Challenges for a disruptive research Agenda By Patrick Caron; Martin van Ittersum; Tessa Avermaete; Gianluca Brunori; Jessica Fanzo; Ken Giller; Etienne Hainzelin; John Ingram; Lise Korsten; Yves Martin-Prével; Moses Osiru; Cheryl Palm; Marta Rivera Ferre; Mariana Rufino; Sergio Schneider; Alban Thomas; Daniel Walker
  7. The Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Sudanese Output: An Asymmetric Analysis using the NARDL Model By Mesbah Fathy Sharaf; Abdelhalem Mahmoud Shahen
  8. Multidimensional tool for assessment of social protection framework - a life cycle approach: conceptualisation, construction and comparison By Dongare, Ashish
  9. Aid for Trade flows, Patent Rights Protection and Total Factor Productivity By Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm
  10. The Economics of Abortion Policy By Clarke, Damian
  11. Measuring systemic financial stress and its risks for growth By Chavleishvili, Sulkhan; Kremer, Manfred
  12. UAMM: UBET Automated Market Maker By Daniel Jiwoong Im; Alexander Kondratskiy; Vincent Harvey; Hsuan-Wei Fu

  1. By: Inmaculada C. Alvarez (Universidad Autonoma de Madrid); Javier Barbero (Universidad Autonoma de Madrid); Luis Orea (Universidad de Oviedo); Andrés Rodríguez-Pose (London School of Economics)
    Abstract: In this paper, we examine the impact of institutional quality on the returns on key drivers of economic growth in 230 European Union (EU) NUTS-2 regions from 2009 to 2017. To estimate region-specific elasticities, we employ a latent class modelling approach, considering the quality of government and the degree of authority in each region as mediators. Our findings reveal significant variation in the returns to education, physical capital investment, and innovation across regions. Moreover, we observe that changes in government quality and regional authority influence the ability of EU regions to leverage different types of investment effectively. These results emphasize the importance of considering the government quality in regions where investments are made in order to maximize the returns on European Cohesion investment.
    Keywords: Institutional quality, European funds, public investment, regional development
    JEL: O43 E61 H54 R11
    Date: 2023–08
  2. By: Di Nola, Alessandro; Haywood, Luke; Wang, Haomin
    Abstract: Women are more likely to work in jobs with low hours than men. Low-hour jobs are associated with lower hourly wages and are more likely impacted by minimum wages that set a floor on hourly wages. We document that the first German minimum wage significantly increased women's transition towards jobs with higher weekly hours. We construct and estimate an equilibrium search model with demographic and firm productivity heterogeneity. The model replicates observed gender gaps in employment, hours and wage and the positive relationship between hours and hourly wages. We implement the minimum wage in our model with a penalty to address non-compliance. Based on our model, the minimum wage primarily reduces the gender income gap through the gender wage gap. At its 2022 level, the German minimum wage reduces the gender employment and hours gap due to an upward reallocation effect, resulting in women's increased participation in higher-hour jobs with lower separation rates. The upward reallocation effect is the strongest for women with children and varies by marital state and spousal income. While the minimum wage only modestly discourages firms from posting jobs, it shifts job offers toward full-time positions.
    Keywords: Minimum wage, gender gaps, equilibrium job posting, hour requirement
    JEL: J08 J31 J16 E24 E64
    Date: 2023
  3. By: FUKUGAWA Nobuya
    Abstract: A series of public administration reforms were implemented in Japan to cope with the secular stagnation since the 1990s, some of which took the form of the incorporation of public organizations. Drawing on the incorporation of Kohsetsushi , technology extension service providers established by local governments, which was a policy program implemented in the early 2000s, this study evaluates its average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) by applying the difference-in-differences (DID) model to panel data (2000-2021). Unlike the uniform and simultaneous incorporation of national universities, it was local governments that decided whether and when to incorporate their Kohsetsushi , which implies a staggered treatment. Applying the conventional two-way fixed effects DID (TWFE DID) model to panel data with staggered treatments may yield biased ATTs due to forbidden comparisons between late and early treated units where early treated units are used as a control group. This study adopted the DID model proposed by Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) (CS DID) to correct the bias by avoiding contaminated comparisons. The ATTs in terms of scientific knowledge and inventive activities are significantly positive for both models. In contrast, the ATTs in terms of technology extension are heterogeneous and significantly positive for the TWFE DID model but insignificant for the CS DID model. Sources of heterogeneity are discussed from the perspectives of agglomeration externalities, learning capacity, and industrial knowledge bases.
    Date: 2023–08
  4. By: NAKAMURA Ryohei
    Abstract: In many non-metropolitan municipalities, in addition to the revitalization of existing firms and the birth of new business establishments, attracting manufacturing firms with large shipment volume is still an important measure for regional development. Although the job creation effect is smaller than it used to be, manufacturing plants remain key in rural regions. However, unlike the attraction of heavy and large-scale industries during the high economic growth period, there is a tendency to attract firms that exhibit regional comparative advantages. In this paper, we will identify what kinds of manufacturing firms disappear, withdraw, appear, and survive in what kind of regions during the first phase of regional revitalization, and analyze their factors. Looking at the distribution of value-added productivity in a comparison of manufacturing firms in 2014 and 2019, the labor productivity of manufacturing firms that existed in both 2014 and 2019 was the highest, followed by manufacturing firms that existed in 2019. The lowest was for firms that existed in 2014 but did not exist in 2019. Also, from the results of the logit analysis, it was presumed that there was a tendency to remain viable if productivity was high and the size of the firm was large, and that there was a tendency towards dissolution if the degree of urbanization was high. On the other hand, for newly established manufacturing firms, regression analysis by municipality showed a positive effect for both the agglomeration of the same industry and urban agglomeration measured by population size.
    Date: 2023–08
  5. By: Torres, Santiago (Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía)
    Abstract: Politician characteristic regression discontinuity (PCRD) designs are a popular strategy when attempting to casually link a specific trait of an elected politician with a given outcome. However, recent research has revealed that this methodology often fails to retrieve the target causal effect¿a problem also known as the PCRD estimation bias. In this paper, I provide a new econometric framework to address this limitation in applied research. First, I propose a covariate-adjusted local polynomial estimator that corrects for the PCRD estimation bias provided all relevant confounders are observed. I then leverage the statistical properties of this estimator to propose several decompositions of the bias term and discuss their potential applications. Next, I devise a strategy to assess the robustness of the new estimator to omitted confounders that could potentially invalidate results. Finally, I illustrate these methods through an application: a PCRD aimed at evaluating the impact of female leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic.
    Keywords: Regression discontinuity designs; Close elections; Bias correction; Sensitivity analysis.
    JEL: C18 C51 P00
    Date: 2023–08–25
  6. By: Patrick Caron (UMR ART-Dev - Acteurs, Ressources et Territoires dans le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Cirad-ES - Département Environnements et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Martin van Ittersum (WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]); Tessa Avermaete (KU Leuven - Catholic University of Leuven - Katholieke Universiteit Leuven); Gianluca Brunori (University of Pisa - Università di Pisa); Jessica Fanzo (John’s Hopkins Berman Institute of Bioethics); Ken Giller (WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]); Etienne Hainzelin (Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); John Ingram (University of Oxford); Lise Korsten (University of Pretoria [South Africa]); Yves Martin-Prével (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Moses Osiru (ICIPE - International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology - ICIPE); Cheryl Palm (UF - University of Florida [Gainesville]); Marta Rivera Ferre (INGENIO - CSIC-UPV); Mariana Rufino (Lancaster University); Sergio Schneider (UFRGS - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul [Porto Alegre]); Alban Thomas (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Daniel Walker (ACIAR - Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research)
    Abstract: The 4th Global Food Security conference highlighted four major developments: the shift from food security to food systems; a focus on diets and consumption patterns; the importance of unknown futures and inherent uncertainties and risks; and the central role of multi-level connections between local- and global-oriented research. These shifts highlight the importance for research to contribute to dialogue and collective intelligence through evidence-based brokerage, and to move beyond polarization of debates. These shifts also call for the involvement of scientists in multi-stakeholder arrangements to strengthen innovation and learning at different levels, and for their participation in foresight studies to help navigate plausible futures. Delegates discussed five scientific challenges to be addressed through both research investments and by improving science-policy interfaces.
    Keywords: Food systems, Scientific challenges, Science-policy interface, Transformation, Innovation
    Date: 2021–09
  7. By: Mesbah Fathy Sharaf (Faculty of Arts, University of Alberta); Abdelhalem Mahmoud Shahen
    Abstract: This study tests the hypothesis that the real effective exchange rate changes have an asymmetric impact on the domestic output in Sudan from 1960 to 2020. The analysis uses a multivariate framework by controlling for the various channels through which exchange rate changes could affect domestic output. To disentangle the potential asymmetric impact of exchange rate changes on domestic income, we use the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) framework of Shin et al. (2014) to separate real currency appreciations from depreciation. The results show that fiscal policy has no statistically significant effect on domestic output, while monetary policy has a statistically significant long-run contractionary effect. Results of the NARDL model show long-run asymmetry in the effect of real currency appreciations and depreciations. In particular, real currency appreciations (depreciations) have an expansionary (contractionary) effect on domestic output. There is a considerable difference in the magnitude of the effect of the positive exchange rate shocks compared to the negative shocks, in which the magnitude of the effect of the real currency appreciations on domestic output is almost double that of real currency deprecations. Monetary authorities in Sudan can use the real exchange rate as an effective instrument to affect domestic output in the long run.
    Date: 2023–07–20
  8. By: Dongare, Ashish
    Abstract: With the objective of introducing a holistic approach for review and assessment of social protection framework, the Multidimensional Social Protection Index (MSPI) is conceptualised in this paper. While developing the proposed MSPI ‘human life cycle’ has been kept at the centre. Accordingly, three sub-indices representing different life phases namely Young Social Protection Index (YSPI), Adult Social Protection Index (ASPI) and Elderly Social Protection Index (ESPI) are constituted. For ascertaining these sub-indices, social protection programs covering important areas like livelihood, education and health are evaluated by assessing their three dimensions viz. adequacy, coverage and efficacy. For this purpose, a set of indicators are framed. A detailed stepwise methodology for construction of MSPI is presented herein. The study is extended to compute MSPI for Indian states on the basis of selected social protection programs to gauge its practical applicability. Using a seven-step computation methodology presented in this paper, MSPI scores for Indian states are estimated and demonstrated herein with stepwise calculation. Further, a robustness check of MSPI is also conducted; the results reveal that MSPI scores estimated under different scenario are not significantly different and thus endorse the robustness of MSPI and its given methodology. Therefore, this study advocates that MSPI is quantifiable, practically implementable and a robust tool which would enable policy makers in developing benchmarks, assessing gaps, optimising allocation of resources and designing appropriate social protection programs.
    Keywords: adequacy; coverage; efficacy; life-cycle phases; multidimensional social protection index; etc.
    JEL: I31 I38 J18
    Date: 2023–08–01
  9. By: Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm
    Abstract: This study has examined both the effect of Aid for Trade (AfT) flows on the total factor productivity (TFP) level, and the extent to which this effect depends on countries' strength of protection of patent rights. The analysis has used the fixed effects estimator the Method of Moments Quantile Regression approach over a panel dataset of 59 countries and the period from 2002 to 2019. It has established several findings. AfT flows are instrumental in improving productivity in recipient countries, with the largest effect arising from AfT flows for productive capacities. The positive productivity effect of total AfT flows is larger in countries with higher productivity levels. On average over the full sample, total AfT flows exert a larger positive effect on the TFP level in countries that have face higher trade costs, lower innovative output and weaker patent rights protection. Interestingly, increasing the real per capita research and development (R&D) expenditure and concurrently strengthening patent rights laws (to protect the returns on R&D expenditure) result in a larger positive effect of total AfT flows on productivity. In addition, countries with low productivity levels (i.e., those located in lower quantiles) and that increase R&D expenditure in the context of stronger patent rights laws, experience a positive and significant effect of total AfT flows (in particular AfT for productive capacities) on productivity. The magnitude of this positive effect is larger, the lower the quantile of the TFP distribution in which a country is located. These findings have important policy implications.
    Keywords: Aid for Trade flows, Intellectual Property Rights, R&D Expenditure, Total Factor Productivity
    JEL: F35 O34 O47
    Date: 2023
  10. By: Clarke, Damian (University of Chile)
    Abstract: This article provides a review of the economics of abortion policy. In particular, it focuses on the determinants of abortion reform, as well as the effects of abortion reform on individual circumstances. The economic literature on abortion policy is broad, studying abortion reforms that have occurred over the past two centuries, although there is a concentration of studies examining policy reform over the 20th and 21st centuries. The literature has examined a range of policies: both those which restrict access and those which legalise elective abortion, but within these two broad classes, the precise nature of policy reform can vary greatly. Policy reforms studied range from particular types of limits or financial barriers restricting access for particular age groups, up to policies which entirely criminalise or legalise elective abortion. The economic literature on abortion reform has illuminated a number of clear links, showing that increased availability of abortion decreases rates of undesired births, and vice versa when access to abortion is limited. These effects have been shown to have downstream impacts in many domains such as family formation, educational attainment, labour market attachment, as well as impacts on health, empowerment and well-being. There is mixed evidence when examining the impact which abortion reform has on cohorts of children exposed to reform variation. Much of what is known in the economic literature on abortion is gleaned from country-level case studies and cohort variation in access, with this evidence generated from a relatively small number of countries in which reforms have occurred and data is available. In general, much of the literature available covers low fertility and industralised settings. Additional evidence from other settings would allow for a more broad understanding of how abortion reform affects well-being.
    Keywords: abortion, contraceptives, labour markets, fertility, child outcomes, crime, health, political economy
    JEL: A33 I18 J10 K36 O57
    Date: 2023–08
  11. By: Chavleishvili, Sulkhan; Kremer, Manfred
    Abstract: This paper proposes a general statistical framework for systemic financial stress indices which measure the severity of financial crises on a continuous scale. Several index designs from the financial stress and systemic risk literature can be represented as special cases. We introduce an enhanced daily variant of the CISS (composite indicator of systemic stress) for the euro area and the US. The CISS aggregates a representative set of stress indicators using their time-varying cross-correlations as systemic risk weights, computationally similar to how portfolio risk is computed from the risk characteristics of individual assets. A boot-strap algorithm provides test statistics. Single-equation and system quantile growth-at-risk regressions show that the CISS has stronger effects in the lower tails of the growth distribu-tion. Simulations based on a quantile VAR suggest that systemic stress is a major driver of the Great Recession, while its contribution to the COVID-19 crisis appears to be small. JEL Classification: C14, C31, C43, C53, E44, G01
    Keywords: Financial crisis, Financial stress index, Macro-financial linkages, Quantile VAR, Systemic risk
    Date: 2023–08
  12. By: Daniel Jiwoong Im; Alexander Kondratskiy; Vincent Harvey; Hsuan-Wei Fu
    Abstract: Automated market makers (AMMs) are pricing mechanisms utilized by decentralized exchanges (DEX). Traditional AMM approaches are constrained by pricing solely based on their own liquidity pool, without consideration of external markets or risk management for liquidity providers. In this paper, we propose a new approach known as UBET AMM (UAMM), which calculates prices by considering external market prices and the impermanent loss of the liquidity pool. Despite relying on external market prices, our method maintains the desired properties of a constant product curve when computing slippages. The key element of UAMM is determining the appropriate slippage amount based on the desired target balance, which encourages the liquidity pool to minimize impermanent loss. We demonstrate that our approach eliminates arbitrage opportunities when external market prices are efficient.
    Date: 2023–08

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