nep-inv New Economics Papers
on Investment
Issue of 2023‒09‒04
fifteen papers chosen by
Daniela Cialfi, Università degli Studi di Teramo

  1. More Than Just Numbers: Assessing the Real Impact of Minimum Wage Increases on Childcare Labor Markets By Franco, Rodrigo
  2. BRICS. Compliance Amid Global Governance System Crisis By Doronin, Pavel (Доронин, Павел); Ignatov, Alexander (Игнатов, Александр); Kolmar, Olga (Колмар, Ольга)
  3. Exploring the viability of Smart Public Universities in the Philippines’ Zamboanga Peninsula Region By Sulasula, Josephine
  4. Multi-directional Robust Benefit of the Doubt model: a comprehensive measure for the quality of health care in OECD countries By Vidoli, F.;; Fusco, E.;; Pignataro, G.;; Guccio, C.;
  5. Capacity-building needs assessment for Futures Thinking in State Universities and Colleges in Zamboanga Peninsula Region, Philippines By Sulasula, Josephine
  6. Prévision de la circulation des billets en euros à l'aide de modèles structurels de séries temporelles durant la pandémie de COVID-19 By Bartzsch Nikolaus; Brandi Marco; Devigne Lucas; De Pastor Raymond; Maddaloni Gianluca; Posada Restrepo Diana; Sene Gabriele
  7. You’re not welcome! Violence and support for a grazing ban policy in Kaduna, Nigeria. By Tuki, Daniel
  8. How to measure inFLAtion volatility. A note By Alfredo García-Hiernaux; María T. González-Pérez; David E. Guerrero
  9. FEATURES OF SMALL BUSINESS SUPPORT IN RURAL AREAS By Gataulina, Ekaterina (Гатаулина, Екатерина); Potapova, Alexandra (Потапова, Александра); Ternovskiy, Denis (Терновский, Денис); Shishkina, Ekaterina (Шишкина, Екатерина)
  10. locproj: A new Stata command to estimate local projections By Alfonso Ugarte-Ruiz
  11. Correlation-diversified portfolio construction by finding maximum independent set in large-scale market graph By Ryo Hidaka; Yohei Hamakawa; Jun Nakayama; Kosuke Tatsumura
  12. The state-dependent impact of changes in bank capital requirements By Lang, Jan Hannes; Menno, Dominik
  13. Imprisoning Complexity in Modules By Richard N. Langlois
  14. Subjective Expected Utility and Psychological Gambles By Gianluca Cassese
  15. The Epidemic Effect: Epidemics, Institutions and Human Capital Development By Francis Annan; Belinda Archibong; Uche Ekhator-Mobayode

  1. By: Franco, Rodrigo
    Abstract: This paper investigates the causal effects of minimum wage changes on the childcare labor market, a sector often characterized by low wages. Leveraging a difference-in-differences approach, I estimated treatment effects using two-way fixed effects and Callaway and Sant’Anna estimators. This research analyzes the causal impact of minimum wage law changes on earnings, employment, and turnover within childcare centers. The results underline a statistically significant 3% increase in the logarithm of earnings, indicating a strong causal relationship between minimum wage increase and earnings. However, the impacts on employment and turnover, while negative, are not statistically significant. These findings provide an insightful understanding of the labor dynamics in the childcare industry and suggest a potential model of perfect competition with search frictions and mobility costs. The pre-trend assumption in each case is validated by a dynamic model, strengthening the causal inference from the results. By dissecting the intricate causal relationship between wages and childcare quality, this research contributes to the broader discourse on minimum wage policies. It invites a reevaluation of wage structures in sectors like childcare, where the quality of service is directly linked to labor conditions.
    Keywords: Labor and Human Capital
    Date: 2023–05
  2. By: Doronin, Pavel (Доронин, Павел) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ignatov, Alexander (Игнатов, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kolmar, Olga (Колмар, Ольга) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The paper assesses the effectiveness of BRICS as a global governance institution in the time of global social-economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and escalation of political tensions in the first half of 2022. The main object of the study is the implementation of the decisions made at the BRICS summit in New Delhi in 2021. The goal of the study is to monitor and assess the BRICS compliance with the collective decisions made in the key areas such as security, macroeconomics, finance, international institutions’ reform agenda, etc. The research is relevant as it attempts to find an optimal strategy for preserving Russia’s position at the global fora in order to mitigate growing pressure over Russia’s economic and political system. The ongoing study will enable an objective assessment of the role BRICS plays in the context of realizing Russia's interests in key areas - macroeconomic policy, healthcare, energy sector, etc. The study is based on the methodology of comparative analysis of the effectiveness of international institutions, content analysis and criterial selection method. The authors conclude that in the crisis situation, BRICS has maintained adherence to the key decisions made in top-priority spheres and demonstrated high solidarity amid growing tensions between Russia and the Western countries, which signifies the value of the BRICS role in meeting Russia’s strategic priorities and keeping the country’s influence in the global politics.
    Keywords: BRICS, global governance, macroeconomics, development, crisis, digital economy, monitoring
    Date: 2022–08
  3. By: Sulasula, Josephine
    Abstract: This research examines the viability of implementing Smart Public Universities (i.e., State Universities and Colleges [SUCs]) in Zamboanga Peninsula (Region IX), Philippines. Utilizing a mixed-methods approach, the study investigates the current technological infrastructure, digital literacy levels, and public opinion regarding the integration of smart technologies in higher education institutions. The research also evaluates the potential benefits and challenges associated with the adoption of smart technologies in public universities, focusing on improved access to education, enhanced learning experiences, and increased institutional efficiency. The results reveal that a majority of respondents possess basic digital literacy skills, while a smaller percentage demonstrate proficiency in utilizing advanced technologies. The findings suggest the need for comprehensive digital skills development programs to bridge the existing gap. Through interviews with university administrators, it was identified that the key benefits of implementing smart technologies include increased student engagement, expanded access to educational resources, and streamlined administrative processes. However, concerns related to infrastructure limitations and data privacy and security were also expressed. Thus, this study provides valuable insights for policymakers, university administrators, and other stakeholders in Zamboanga Peninsula, guiding them in making informed decisions regarding the integration of smart technologies in public universities. The findings underscore the importance of investing in digital literacy programs, ensuring robust infrastructure, and implementing effective data protection measures to maximize the potential of Smart Public Universities.
    Keywords: Smart Public Universities, digital literacy, higher education, technology integration, Zamboanga Peninsula, Philippines
    JEL: H0 H00 H8 H83 M0 M00 O3 O31 O32 O33 O35 O38 Z0 Z1 Z13 Z18
    Date: 2023–07–08
  4. By: Vidoli, F.;; Fusco, E.;; Pignataro, G.;; Guccio, C.;
    Abstract: While individual indicators in health care quality assessment provide detailed insights into specific aspects, they often fail to capture the full and relevant information. Consequently, there is a growing need to develop composite measures that comprehensively assess the overall quality or performance of health care systems, especially those not covered by official OECD measures. A novel multi-directional robust Benefit of the Doubt approach is proposed to measure overall health care quality, through a composite indicator, while, at the same time, highlighting the potential improvement directions for each single component indicator. The method is developed within a robust framework. To show its advantages, the approach is applied, first, to simulated data, and then to country-level OECD data, drawn from the Healthcare Quality and Outcomes program, relative to acute care services.
    Keywords: robust composite indicators; non-compensatory; multi-directional benefit of the doubt; health care quality;
    JEL: C14 C43 C44 I18
    Date: 2023–08
  5. By: Sulasula, Josephine
    Abstract: This academic research presents a comprehensive capacity-building needs assessment for Futures Thinking in State Universities and Colleges (SUCs) within the Zamboanga Peninsula Region of the Philippines. The study aims to identify the knowledge gaps and training requirements necessary to enhance the capacity of educational institutions in the region to engage in effective futures thinking practices. Through a rigorous data collection process, including surveys and interviews with key stakeholders, the research gathered empirical evidence on the current state of futures thinking in SUCs. The findings reveal a significant need for capacity-building initiatives in futures thinking methodologies. The study also identified specific areas where SUCs lacked expertise, including scenario planning, trend analysis, and strategic foresight. Additionally, faculty members expressed a desire for more resources and support to integrate futures thinking into their curricula. The research underscores the importance of addressing these capacity-building needs to ensure that SUCs in the Zamboanga Peninsula Region are equipped to navigate future uncertainties and contribute to the development of the Philippines. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, university administrators, and education professionals seeking to enhance futures thinking capabilities in higher education institutions. This study lays the groundwork for future interventions aimed at strengthening the capacity of SUCs in the region, enabling them to effectively anticipate and shape future trends and challenges through the application of futures thinking methodologies
    Keywords: capacity-building, needs assessment, futures thinking, State Universities and Colleges (SUCs), Zamboanga Peninsula Region, Philippines
    JEL: H10 H11 H4 H41 H7 H70 H75 H77 H8 H83 I2 I23 I25 I28 L3 L30 L31 L38 L8 M0 M00 M1 M10 M15 M19 M2 O2 O20 O3 O31 O32 O33 O38 Z0 Z00
    Date: 2023–07–13
  6. By: Bartzsch Nikolaus; Brandi Marco; Devigne Lucas; De Pastor Raymond; Maddaloni Gianluca; Posada Restrepo Diana; Sene Gabriele
    Abstract: As part of the Eurosystem’s annual banknote production planning, the national central banks draw up forecasts estimating the volumes of national-issued banknotes in circulation for the three years ahead. As at the end of 2021, more than 80 per cent of euro banknotes in circulation (cumulated net issuance) had been issued by the national central banks of France, Germany, Italy and Spain (collectively referred to as the “4 NCBs”). To date, the 4 NCBs have been using ARIMAX models to forecast the banknotes issued nationally in circulation by denomination (“benchmark models”). This paper presents the structural time series models developed by the 4 NCBs as an additional forecasting tool. According to the forecast accuracy measures employed, the Structural Time series Models (“STSMs”) outperform the benchmark models at each of the 4 NCBs and for most of the denominations. However, it should be borne in mind that the statistical informative value of this comparison is limited by the short projection period of just 12 months.
    Keywords: Euro, Demand for Banknotes, Forecast of Banknotes in Circulation, Structural Time Series Models, ARIMA Models, Intervention Variables
    JEL: C22 E41 E47 E51
    Date: 2023
  7. By: Tuki, Daniel
    Abstract: This study examined the effect of victimization – i.e., the concrete experience of violence – on support for a policy banning the opening grazing of livestock in the state of Kaduna in Northern Nigeria. This policy, which aims to reduce the incidence of conflicts between nomadic herders and sedentary farmers, has been implemented to various degrees in some states across Nigeria. Kaduna is a suitable case study for investigating this relationship because despite having the third highest incidence of farmer-herder conflicts among Nigeria’s 36 states, the state government has not implemented a grazing ban policy there. The regression results showed that the effect of victimization on support for a grazing ban policy depends on who is perpetrating the violence. General victimization (i.e., irrespective of the perpetrator) had no statistically significant effect on support for a grazing ban policy, but victimization by herders did have a significant positive effect. The positive effect was particularly strong among Christians. 78 percent of the respondents who had been victimized by herders were Christians.
    Date: 2023–07–27
  8. By: Alfredo García-Hiernaux (DANAE and ICAE); María T. González-Pérez (Banco de España); David E. Guerrero (CUNEF)
    Abstract: This paper proposes a statistical model and a conceptual framework to estimate inflation volatility assuming rational inattention, where the decay in the level of attention reflects the arrival of news in the market. We estimate trend inflation and the conditional inflation volatility for Germany, Spain, the euro area and the United States using monthly data from January 2002 to March 2022 and test whether inflation was equal to or below 2% in this period in these regions. We decompose inflation volatility into positive and negative surprise components and characterise different inflation volatility scenarios during the Great Financial Crisis, the Sovereign Debt Crisis, and the post-COVID period. Our volatility measure outperforms the GARCH(1, 1) model and the rolling standard deviation in one-step ahead volatility forecasts both in-sample and out-of-sample. The methodology proposed in this article is appropriate for estimating the conditional volatility of macro-financial variables. We recommend the inclusion of this measure in inflation dynamics monitoring and forecasting exercises.
    Keywords: inflation, inflation trend, inflation volatility, rational inattention, positive and negative surprises.
    JEL: C22 C32 E3 E4 E5
    Date: 2023–06
  9. By: Gataulina, Ekaterina (Гатаулина, Екатерина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Potapova, Alexandra (Потапова, Александра) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ternovskiy, Denis (Терновский, Денис) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Shishkina, Ekaterina (Шишкина, Екатерина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: One of the priorities of state policy is small business and the development of rural areas. It is obvious that rural small business (SB) is an important aspect of the development of rural areas. However, it has been little studied, which justifies the relevance of the study. The purpose of the work is to analyze the state of rural small business, to identify the peculiarities of its support. The objectives of the study include an analysis of methodological issues of identification and support of small businesses in rural areas, the formation of a database based on a review of information sources, analysis of the current state of, and support measures for, small businesses in rural areas based on the generated data sets. A separate task of the study is to identify the status quo and peculiarities of support for rural small businesses in the context of COVID-19. The work was carried out at the Center for Agri- Food Policy of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration in 2021. The main sources of information were data from the Unified Register of Small and Medium-sized Businesses and the Unified Register of Small and Medium-sized Businesses receiving support. The two registers are maintained by the Federal Tax Service of the Russian Federation. Comparative, computational-constructive, statistical methods were used. As a result, for the first time, an assessment of the current state of rural small business in Russia was obtained in regional and sectoral cross-sections in terms of the number and density of businesses; in comparison with the urban areas, which is also the novelty of this work. The regions with the highest concentration of rural small business, as well as regions where it develops less successfully, are highlighted. It is shown that the main volume of support for rural SBs falls on agriculture, although the main sphere of rural SBs is trade, transport, and only then agriculture. The results can be used to improve regional and federal policy in the field of rural development. Further research can develop in terms of further monitoring of rural small business, expanding the analysis of the characteristics of rural small businesses, now available through a limited range of indicators, identifying factors affecting the development of rural small businesses.
    Keywords: Small-scale rural entrepreneurship, rural development, government support, agriculture, subsidies and grants, Register of small and medium-sized businesses
    Date: 2021–12–14
  10. By: Alfonso Ugarte-Ruiz (BBVA)
    Abstract: locproj estimates linear and nonlinear impulse response functions (IRFs) based on the local projections methodology first proposed by Jorda (2005). The procedure allows one to easily implement several options used in the growing literature of local projections. The options allow defining the desired specification in a fully automatic or in a customized way. For instance, it allows defining any nonlinear combination of variables as the impulse (shock) or defining methodological options that depend on the response horizon. It allows choosing different estimation methods for both time series and panel data, including the instrumental variables options currently available in Stata. It performs the necessary transformations to the dependent variable in order to estimate the local projections in the desired transformation, such as levels, logs, differences, log-differences, cumulative changes, and cumulative log-differences. For every option, the procedure generates the corresponding transformation of the dependent variable needed in case the user wants to include lags of the dependent variable. It reports the IRF, together with its standard error and confidence interval as an output matrix and through an IRF graph. The user can easily choose different options for the desired IRF graph and other options to save and use the results.
    Date: 2023–07–29
  11. By: Ryo Hidaka; Yohei Hamakawa; Jun Nakayama; Kosuke Tatsumura
    Abstract: Correlation-diversified portfolios can be constructed by finding the maximum independent sets (MISs) in market graphs with edges corresponding to correlations between two stocks. The computational complexity to find the MIS increases exponentially as the size of the market graph increases, making the MIS selection in a large-scale market graph difficult. Here we construct a diversified portfolio by solving the MIS problem for a large-scale market graph with a combinatorial optimization solver (an Ising machine) based on a quantum-inspired algorithm called simulated bifurcation (SB) and investigate the investment performance of the constructed portfolio using long-term historical market data. Comparisons using stock universes of various sizes [TOPIX 100, Nikkei 225, TOPIX 1000, and TOPIX (including approximately 2, 000 constituents)] show that the SB-based solver outperforms conventional MIS solvers in terms of computation-time and solution-accuracy. By using the SB-based solver, we optimized the parameters of a MIS portfolio strategy through iteration of the backcast simulation that calculates the performance of the MIS portfolio strategy based on a large-scale universe covering more than 1, 700 Japanese stocks for a long period of 10 years. It has been found that the best MIS portfolio strategy (Sharpe ratio = 1.16, annualized return/risk = 16.3%/14.0%) outperforms the major indices such as TOPIX (0.66, 10.0%/15.2%) and MSCI Japan Minimum Volatility Index (0.64, 7.7%/12.1%) for the period from 2013 to 2023.
    Date: 2023–08
  12. By: Lang, Jan Hannes; Menno, Dominik
    Abstract: Based on a non-linear equilibrium model of the banking sector with an occasionally binding equity issuance constraint, we show that the economic impact of changes in bank capital requirements depends on the state of the macro-financial environment. In 'normal' states where banks do not face problems to retain enough profits to satisfy higher capital requirements, the impact on bank loan supply works through a 'pricing channel' which is small: around 0.1% less loans for a 1pp increase in capital requirements. In 'bad' states where banks are not able to come up with sufficient equity to satisfy capital requirements, the impact on loan supply works through a 'quantity channel', which acts like a financial accelerator and can be very large: up to 10% more loans for a capital requirement release of 1pp. Compared to existing DSGE models with a banking sector, which usually feature a constant lending response of around 1%, our state-dependent impact is an order of magnitude lower in 'normal' states and an order of magnitude higher in 'bad' states. Our results provide a theoretical justification for building up a positive countercyclical capital buffer in 'normal' macro-financial environments.
    Keywords: Bank capital requirements, loan supply, dynamic stochastic equilibrium model, financial accelerator, global solution methods
    JEL: D21 E44 E51 G21 G28
    Date: 2023
  13. By: Richard N. Langlois (University of Connecticut)
    Abstract: In a modular system, complexity is effectively imprisoned within subsystems, thus mitigating the propagation of influences to distant parts of the larger system. This paper briefly outlines the idea of modularity as a design principle; explores its benefits – which go beyond the imprisonment of complexity – as well as its limitations; and applies the ideas of modularity to social institutions. Although modular design may or may not be an optimal response to a given environment (typically understood as a given optimization problem), modular design shines in the far more important realm of innovation, which is driven by the recombination of knowledge. The concepts of encapsulation and information hiding in the theory of modular systems turn out to be analogous in many ways to the principles of constitutional design articulated in constitutional political economy. The paper considers the difficulty of creating a modularconstitutional structure as well as the threats to established modular-constitutiona systems that arise from rent seeking and externalities, including intangible externalities or moralisms. The paper concludes by applying these ideas to one particular set of social institutions, present-day Internet social networks.
    JEL: D02 D23 D71 D74 K11 P14 P16
    Date: 2023–08
  14. By: Gianluca Cassese
    Abstract: We obtain an elementary characterization of expected utility based on a representation of choice in terms of psychological gambles, which requires no assumption other than coherence between ex-ante and ex-post preferences. Weaker version of coherence are associated with various attitudes towards complexity and lead to a characterization of minimax or Choquet expected utility.
    Date: 2023–07
  15. By: Francis Annan; Belinda Archibong; Uche Ekhator-Mobayode
    Abstract: Epidemics can negatively affect economic development unless they are mitigated by global governance institutions. We examine the effects of sudden exposure to epidemics on human capital outcomes using evidence from the African meningitis belt. Meningitis shocks reduce child health outcomes, particularly when the World Health Organization (WHO) does not declare an epidemic year. These effects are reversed when the WHO declares an epidemic year. Children born in meningitis shock areas in a year when an epidemic is declared are 10 percentage points (pp) less stunted and 8.2 pp less underweight than their peers born in non-epidemic years. We find evidence for the crowd-out of routine vaccination during epidemic years. We analyze data from World Bank projects and find evidence that an influx of health aid in response to WHO declarations may partly explain these reversals.
    Keywords: Africa; World Bank; Disease; Aid; WHO; Epidemic; Vaccination
    JEL: O12 I18 H84 I15 I12 O19
    Date: 2023–07–19

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