nep-inv New Economics Papers
on Investment
Issue of 2023‒08‒14
eighteen papers chosen by
Daniela Cialfi
Università degli Studi di Teramo

  1. Facilitating the Digital Transformation of Service Companies By Kang, Minsung
  2. Termination of SNAP Emergency Allotments, Food Sufficiency, and Economic Hardships By Kabir Dasgupta; Alexander Plum
  3. Conflict inflation and autonomous demand: a supermultiplier model with endogenous distribution By Guilherme Spinato Morlin; Riccardo Pariboni
  4. Costs and scale-up costs of integrating HIV self-testing into civil society organisation-led programmes for key populations in Côte d'Ivoire, Senegal, and Mali By Marc d’Elbée; Métogara Mohamed Traore; Kéba Badiane; Anthony Vautier; Arlette Simo Fotso; Odé Kanku Kabemba; Nicolas Rouveau; Peter Godfrey-Faussett; Mathieu Maheu-Giroux; Marie-Claude Boily; Graham Francis Medley; Joseph Larmarange; Fern Terris-Prestholt Terris-Prestholt
  5. How institutions shape the economic returns of public investment in European regions By Inmaculada C. Alvarez; Inmaculada C. Alvarez; Luis Orea; Andrés Rodríguez-Pose
  6. Toward the rebuilding of modern macroeconomic theory: Market failure and Keynes' unemployment By Eizo Kawai
  7. Benefit-Cost Analysis of Municipal Rural and Industrial System on Crow Reservation Montana By Reichhardt, Tasha
  8. Modelling the governance of European medium-sized port-cities By Lilian Loubet; Géraldine del Mondo; Julius Bañgate; Eric Sanlaville; Pierrick Tranouez
  9. The state of science and innovations in Russia in 2022 By Dezhina Irina
  10. Financial feasibility of developing solar irrigation in Mali By Xie, Hua; Ringler, Claudia
  11. New asymptotics applied to functional coefficient regression and climate sensitivity analysis By Qiying Wang; Peter C. B. Phillips; Ying Wang
  12. "From Aspirations for Climate Action to the Reality of Climate Disasters": Can Migrants Play Key Role in Disaster Response? By Farid Makhlouf; Refk Selmi; Kamal Kasmaoui
  13. El impacto de la pandemia por la COVID-19 en las brechas de género en América Latina. Un estudio de mediano plazo (2014-2022) By Actis Di Pasquale, Eugenio
  14. Satellites Turn “Concrete”: Tracking Cement with Satellite Data and Neural Networks By Aspremont Alexandre; Ben Arous Simon; Bricongne Jean-Charles; Lietti Benjamin; Meunier Baptiste
  15. The Renaissance of Ordoliberalism in the 1970s and 1980s By Tim Krieger; Daniel Nientiedt
  16. Currency Risk Premiums: A Multi-horizon Perspective By Mikhail Chernov; Magnus Dahlquist
  17. Is the supermultiplier nil? A replication study of Deleidi and Mazzucato (2021) By Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  18. (Breaking) Intergenerational Transmission of Mental Health By Aline Bütikofer; Rita Ginja; Krzysztof Karbownik; Fanny Landaud

  1. By: Kang, Minsung (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade)
    Abstract: As a country’s industry develops and advances, the service industry typically comes to account for an ever-larger proportion of the economy. In advanced economies, the service industry is thus a significant source of employment, but one that is highly susceptible to economic fluctuations. And so managing this critical sector is a major point of interest among policymakers. Recently, the digital transformation (DX) of the service industry has garnered much attention in the policy literature, as scholars study the ways in which DX can enhance productivity and create new jobs in the service industry. DX refers to the phenomenon by which technology, economics, and cultural paradigms developed and discussed in relation to the Fourth Industrial Revolution are combined with actual service sector business models. In this paper, I examine individual cases of leading service industry firms that have embraced DX and government DX policies. Through this analysis I propose effective policy alternatives that the Korean government could implement to promote DX within the service industry
    Keywords: industrial structure; service sector; industry; services; digital transformation; DX; Fourth Industrial Revolution; 4IR; Industry 4.0; servicification; servitization; service value-added; DX policy; digital policy; digital services; service technology; service sector policy
    JEL: L80 L88 L89 O14 O25 O30 O32 O38
    Date: 2023–06–30
  2. By: Kabir Dasgupta; Alexander Plum
    Abstract: To meet the rising need for food and nutrition assistance during the pandemic in the United States, all states were approved to provide Emergency Allotments (EA) to households enrolled in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). In this analysis, we use the Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Surveys and exploit staggered state-level variation in dissolution of the SNAP EA payments to study whether the end of EA is associated with food-related challenges and economic hardships. Our findings indicate that EA termination is followed by a decrease in the likelihood that adult survey respondents had sufficient food for consumption and an increase in the probability of experiencing difficulty in paying meeting with usual household expenses. These findings provide policy-relevant insights into the potential impact of the nationwide termination of the EA payments that came into effect in early 2023.
    Keywords: SNAP; Emergency Allotments; Pandemic; Staggered difference-in-differences
    JEL: I10 I18 I31 J10
    Date: 2023–07–07
  3. By: Guilherme Spinato Morlin; Riccardo Pariboni
    Abstract: The disciplinary role of unemployment has long been acknowledged in economic theory. Seminal works on conflict inflation have included the unemployment rate as a determinant of workers’ bargaining power, which thus affects distribution and inflation (Rowthorn, 1977). In extensions to the long run, however, conflict inflation models have shifted away from this analytical approach and replaced the unemployment rate with the rate of change in unemployment as a determinant of workers’ claim (Cassetti, 2002; Lavoie, 2022). A similar approach is found in Nah and Lavoie (2019), who introduced conflict inflation in an autonomous demand-led growth model in which the unemployment rate – contrarily to empirical evidence – has no permanent effect on wage claims and income distribution We propose here an alternative way to combine conflict inflation and autonomous demand-led growth in a Sraffian supermultiplier model. We introduce the unemployment rate as a determinant of workers’ claim in a conflicting claims model. Modeling of the labor market relies on an endogenous adjustment of labor supply to demand (Fazzari, Ferri, and Variato, 2020). We extend the typical results of short-run conflict inflation models to the long run, finding that high (low) unemployment rate reduces (increases) both the equilibrium wage share and conflict inflation. By incorporating income distribution as an endogenous factor through a conflicting claims process, we establish a direct relationship between the growth rate of autonomous demand and the wage share. This relation discloses a conflict underlying the determinants of autonomous demand growth. We conclude that in the political economy of growth and distribution it is crucial to consider the impact of autonomous demand growth on workers’ bargaining power and income distribution
    Keywords: Phillips curve; Sraffian supermultiplier; demand-led growth; autonomous demand; inflation; distributive conflict.
    JEL: B51 E11 E24 E31 O41
    Date: 2023–06
  4. By: Marc d’Elbée (LSHTM - London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine); Métogara Mohamed Traore (SOLTHIS - Solidarité thérapeutique & initiatives contre le sida); Kéba Badiane (SOLTHIS - Solidarité thérapeutique & initiatives contre le sida); Anthony Vautier (SOLTHIS - Solidarité thérapeutique & initiatives contre le sida); Arlette Simo Fotso (CEPED - UMR_D 196 - Centre population et développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UPCité - Université Paris Cité, SAGESUD - ERL Inserm U1244 - Santé, vulnérabilités et relations de genre au sud - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - CEPED - UMR_D 196 - Centre population et développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UPCité - Université Paris Cité); Odé Kanku Kabemba (SOLTHIS - Solidarité thérapeutique & initiatives contre le sida); Nicolas Rouveau (CEPED - UMR_D 196 - Centre population et développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UPCité - Université Paris Cité, SAGESUD - ERL Inserm U1244 - Santé, vulnérabilités et relations de genre au sud - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - CEPED - UMR_D 196 - Centre population et développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UPCité - Université Paris Cité); Peter Godfrey-Faussett (ONUSIDA - UNAIDS [Genève, Suisse], LSHTM - London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine); Mathieu Maheu-Giroux (McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada]); Marie-Claude Boily (Imperial College London); Graham Francis Medley (LSHTM - London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine); Joseph Larmarange (SAGESUD - ERL Inserm U1244 - Santé, vulnérabilités et relations de genre au sud - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - CEPED - UMR_D 196 - Centre population et développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UPCité - Université Paris Cité, CEPED - UMR_D 196 - Centre population et développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UPCité - Université Paris Cité); Fern Terris-Prestholt Terris-Prestholt (LSHTM - London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , ONUSIDA - UNAIDS [Genève, Suisse])
    Abstract: BACKGROUND: Despite significant progress on the proportion of individuals who know their HIV status in 2020, Côte d'Ivoire (76%), Senegal (78%), and Mali (48%) remain far below the 90-90-90 targets. Key populations including female sex workers (FSW), men who have sex with men (MSM), and people who use drugs (PWUD) are the most vulnerable groups with HIV prevalence at 5%-30%. HIV self-testing (HIVST) was introduced in West Africa in 2019 as a new testing modality through the ATLAS project coordinated by the international partner organisation Solthis (IPO). METHODS: We estimated the costs of implementing HIVST through twenty-three civil society organisations (CSO)-led models in Côte d'Ivoire (N=7), Senegal (N=11), and Mali (N=5). We modelled costs for programme transition (2021) and early scale-up (2022-2023). RESULTS: Between July-2019 and September-2020, a total of 51, 028, 14, 472 and 34, 353 HIVST kits were distributed in Côte d'Ivoire, Senegal, and Mali, respectively. Across countries, 64%-80% of HIVST kits were distributed to FSW, 20%-31% to MSM, and 5%-8% to PWUD. Cost per HIVST kit distributed ranged from $12-$15 (FSW), $14-$27 (MSM), to $15-$143 (PWUD), driven by personnel costs at various intervention levels (53%-78% of total costs), and HIVST kit costs (2%-15%). Predicted costs at scale-up ranged from $5-$13 (FSW), $5-$24 (MSM), to $13-$53 (PWUD), and were mainly explained by the spreading of IPO costs over higher HIVST distribution volumes. CONCLUSIONS: In all countries, CSO-led HIVST kit provision to key populations showed relatively high costs related to the progressive integration of the programme to CSO activities and contextual challenges (e.g. country security issues). In the transition to scale-up and further integration of the HIVST programme into CSO activities, this model can become less costly. This is particularly relevant as it remains today the most promising strategy for reaching key populations and their sexual partners not accessing HIV testing.
    Date: 2021–07
  5. By: Inmaculada C. Alvarez; Inmaculada C. Alvarez; Luis Orea; Andrés Rodríguez-Pose
    Abstract: In this paper, we examine the impact of institutional quality on the returns of key drivers of economic growth in 230 European Union (EU) NUTS-2 regions from 2009 to 2017. To estimate region-specific elasticities, we employ a latent class modelling approach, considering the quality of government and the degree of authority in each region as mediators. Our findings reveal significant variation in the returns to education, physical capital investment, and innovation across regions. Moreover, we observe that changes in government quality and regional authority influence the ability of EU regions to leverage different types of investment effectively. These results emphasize the importance of considering the government quality in regions where investments are made in order to maximize the returns on European Cohesion investment
    Date: 2023
  6. By: Eizo Kawai
    Abstract: This study perceives an unacceptable unreality of a macro price mechanism: i.e., the unreality that under any severe recession, worsening deflation, or a consistent decline in the rate of inflation will lead an economy to full employment equilibrium. This unreality is a result of an arbitrary assumption that the micro price mechanism operates even in a macroeconomy: a fallacy of composition. This study challenges the modern macroeconomics theories on price mechanism and unemployment based on the skepticism toward existing theories. This study gets the following two conclusions: First, in a macroeconomy, market failure occurs because the price mechanism does not function, especially under deflation. Consequently, even if nominal values are sufficiently flexible, steady-state and thus full employment equilibrium do not hold. In other words, there is no macro general equilibrium corresponding to a micro general equilibrium. Market failure in a short-run macroeconomy is because of the unavoidable spillover effects, or the derived demand effects between goods and labor markets under disequilibrium from rigid wages and prices. Market failure would occur even in the long-term macroeconomy as an inevitable conjecture from the short-run analysis. For the above analyses, a static model is sufficient, and dynamic models are unnecessary and theoretically unfeasible. Second, Keynes' unemployment equilibrium is realized owing to market failure in a macroeconomy. It shows that involuntary unemployment results from quantitative and not price aspects. In other words, the unemployment results from shortage in labor demand under rigid real wages and not under rigidity of real wages. Final section shows three novel proposals for future contributions of this study's implications.
    Date: 2023–03
  7. By: Reichhardt, Tasha
    Abstract: There is currently little research about the economic outcomes for tribes that settle their water rights with the United States. To address this gap, I conduct a benefit-cost analysis on the Crow Reservation’s Municipal, Rural, and Industrial System funded by the Crow Tribe Water Rights Settlement Act of 2010. This project is designed to revitalize the existing community water systems on Crow Reservation and provide community water access to over half of the reservation's residents that otherwise rely on wells, springs, or hauling water. I also discuss the implications this may have for tribes unable or ineligible to settle water rights. Based on the baseline scenario of the cost-benefit model, the benefits of this system accumulate to $413 million (95% CI $339 million - $508 million) at a 3 percent discount rate, $1, 464 (95% CI $1, 261 million - $1, 776 million) at a 0.1 percent discount rate, and $153 million (95% CI $115 million - $194 million) at a 7 percent discount rate. Costs accumulate to $320 million at a 3 percent discount rate, $632 million at a 0.1 percent discount rate, and $196 million at a 7 percent discount rate. The respective benefit-cost ratio for each discount rate is 1.29, 2.31, and 0.78.
    Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis, Environmental Economics and Policy
    Date: 2023–05
  8. By: Lilian Loubet (IDEES - Identité et Différenciation de l’Espace, de l’Environnement et des Sociétés - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IRIHS - Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université); Géraldine del Mondo (LITIS - Laboratoire d'Informatique, du Traitement de l'Information et des Systèmes - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - INSA Rouen Normandie - Institut national des sciences appliquées Rouen Normandie - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - NU - Normandie Université); Julius Bañgate (LITIS - Laboratoire d'Informatique, du Traitement de l'Information et des Systèmes - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - INSA Rouen Normandie - Institut national des sciences appliquées Rouen Normandie - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - NU - Normandie Université); Eric Sanlaville (LITIS - Laboratoire d'Informatique, du Traitement de l'Information et des Systèmes - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - INSA Rouen Normandie - Institut national des sciences appliquées Rouen Normandie - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - NU - Normandie Université); Pierrick Tranouez (LITIS - Laboratoire d'Informatique, du Traitement de l'Information et des Systèmes - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - INSA Rouen Normandie - Institut national des sciences appliquées Rouen Normandie - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - NU - Normandie Université)
    Abstract: The paper presents a model designed to analyse port governance. It considers that the stakeholders ability to adopt cooperative behaviors constitutes the key element to port development. Its focus is on medium-sized European ports and fifteen cases were studied. Each territory was first subject to a qualitative survey and analysis of the contents of local stakeholders discourse (over 80 interviews conducted). The material is rich, allowing for the comparison between two or even three ports, yet the delicate nature of the relations brought to light adds considerable complexity to the comparison within a larger ensemble. The paper, therefore, proposes a semi-automatic treatment which helps to mitigate this difficulty by means of a computer model based on graph theory. It involves a modelling system based on the relations between the entities of the system. In this context, the relations between stakeholders were analysed in order to create typologies and eventually envisage some standard models of governance. In order to territorialize the subject, six emblematic cases out of fifteen were used:
    Abstract: Ce travail présente un modèle d'analyse de la gouvernance portuaire considérant que la capacité des acteurs à adopter des comportements coopératifs constitue l'élément moteur du développement. Il se concentre sur les ports moyens européens ; une quinzaine de cas ont été étudiés (plus de 80 entretiens réalisés). Toutefois, si ce matériau riche permet de comparer la gouvernance de deux, voire trois ports, la finesse des relations mises en lumière complexifie considérablement la comparaison au sein d'un ensemble plus important. Aussi cet article propose un traitement semi-automatique participant à pallier cette difficulté au moyen d'un modèle informatique basé sur la théorie des graphes. Il s'agit de modéliser un système en se basant sur les relations entre les entités du système. Ainsi, les relations entre acteurs ont été analysées afin de créer des typologies et d'envisager à terme des modèles types de gouvernance. Afin de territorialiser le propos, six cas emblématiques ont été retenus sur les quinze : Le Havre, Nantes-Saint Nazaire, Dunkerque (France), Gdynia (Pologne), Klaipėda (Lituanie), Hamina-Kotka (Finlande). Tous ces environnements portuaires modélisés selon un même format (i.e. un graphe) donnent lieu à l'application d'un certain nombre de métriques permettant de les comparer. Deux principales métriques ont été présentées à titre illustratif dans le cadre de cet article : la "Densité" et la "S_metric". Elles ont été couplées à d'autres indicateurs (distribution des degrés et nombre de hubs par port) qui ont permis de mesurer l'intensité des relations, la répartition de cette intensité entre les acteurs, d'identifier les acteurs majeurs ou peu influents.
    Keywords: governance, port governance, stakeholder, modelling, graph theory, gouvernance portuaire, gouvernance, parties prenantes, modélisation, théorie des graphes
    Date: 2023–07–06
  9. By: Dezhina Irina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Sanctions were the main factor influencing the sphere of science and innovation in 2022. Quick measures to solve the issues that arose were developed only to a certain extent. The first priority steps were made in such areas of science policy as changing the composition of reporting and accounting indicators and revising the partners and directions of international cooperation. In technological field the agenda was reoriented toward ensuring technological sovereignty. For this purpose, first of all, the following were planned: strengthening support of applied research; growth of financing of innovations from regional budgets; identification of “niches” where there is a potential for the development of necessary technologies and products.
    Keywords: Russian economy, R&D, science, technology
    JEL: I28 O31 O32 I2 O3
    Date: 2023
  10. By: Xie, Hua; Ringler, Claudia
    Abstract: Mali is home to 22 million people, 12 million of whom live in rural areas and work mostly in agriculture. Although remarkable progress has been made, food insecurity still affects a large share of the population; during 2019-2021, the prevalence of undernourishment in the population was 10%, and in 2020 26% of children below the age of five were stunted.
    Keywords: MALI; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; groundwater irrigation; irrigation; groundwater; solar powered irrigation systems; investment
    Date: 2023
  11. By: Qiying Wang (University of Sydney); Peter C. B. Phillips (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Ying Wang (Renmin University of China)
    Abstract: A general asymptotic theory is established for sample cross moments of nonstationary time series, allowing for long range dependence and local unit roots. The theory provides a substantial extension of earlier results on nonparametric regression that include near-cointegrated nonparametric regression as well as spurious nonparametric regression. Many new models are covered by the limit theory, among which are functional coefficient regressions in which both regressors and the functional covariate are nonstationary. Simulations show finite sample performance matching well with the asymptotic theory and having broad relevance to applications, while revealing how dual nonstationarity in regressors and covariates raises sensitivity to bandwidth choice and the impact of dimensionality in nonparametric regression.
    Date: 2023–06
  12. By: Farid Makhlouf (ESC PAU - Ecole Supérieure de Commerce, Pau Business School); Refk Selmi (ESC PAU - Ecole Supérieure de Commerce, Pau Business School); Kamal Kasmaoui (ESC PAU - Ecole Supérieure de Commerce, Pau Business School)
    Abstract: Climate change and extreme weather events have led to a surge in natural hazards in Pakistan that have escalated into humanitarian disasters. Prior studies have largely documented the significant role of remittances in dealing with unforeseen natural disasters. This paper investigates the reaction of Pakistani migrants to natural disasters via remittances from 1972 to 2023. Using a flexible event-study methodology suited to examining the changes in remittances beyond expectation during a specific period of time, the paper compares the responses of remittances in different host countries namely Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Europe and North America Countries. Our findings reveal that the response is significant two (one) months after the events for GCC (Europe and North America), and tends to dissipate five months from the disaster occurrence (except for GCC). The intensity and the persistence of remittances'responsiveness (abnormal returns and volatility) depends on the nature of disasters, host countries'features and the economic conditions of migrants limiting their ability to send additional financial resources at home.Overall, migrant remittances may act as immediate and direct aid to households harmfully affected by disasters, substituting for the delayed arrival of official aid.
    Keywords: Remittances, Natural Disaster, Pakistan, Event study methodology, Abnormal returns, Volatility
    Date: 2023–06–22
  13. By: Actis Di Pasquale, Eugenio
    Abstract: La crisis económica, sanitaria y humanitaria generada como consecuencia de la pandemia por la COVID-19 fue desigual entre países, habida cuenta de las diferencias estructurales y la evolución que ya presentaban durante los años previos. Tal como se destaca en la bibliografía, la región de Latinoamérica y el Caribe entre los años 2014 y 2019 estuvo prácticamente estancada: el crecimiento promedio había sido de sólo 0, 3%, razón por la cual se produjo una disminución del PIB por habitante en el período (CEPAL, 2021a). En este contexto, irrumpe la pandemia y los distintos países fueron tomando medidas sanitarias de contención y distanciamiento social que afectaron a la economía y el mundo del trabajo. Esto provocó caídas en los niveles de producción que alcanzaron el 40% en algunos países durante abril y mayo, llegando al 9, 1% en el conjunto de la región durante 2020. De acuerdo a Maurizio (2021) la tasa de ocupación promedio llegó en 2020 a un mínimo histórico y significó que más de 26 millones de personas perdieron sus puestos de trabajo. A partir de este contexto y teniendo en cuenta las tendencias de mediano plazo del mercado de trabajo de cada país, en este capítulo analizamos el impacto diferencial entre mujeres y varones debido a la pandemia por COVID-19 y la salida de esa crisis en una etapa que denominaremos pospandemia. Para ello abordaremos las problemáticas a partir de las siguientes dimensiones que conforman las tres secciones del presente estudio: 1) participación laboral, ocupación y desocupación, 2) segregación ocupacional y brecha salarial, y 3) acceso a la protección y seguridad social. El período de análisis lo comenzamos en 2014, lo que nos permite estudiar las tendencias de mediano plazo (prepandemia), habida cuenta del período de estancamiento económico en la región de Latinoamérica. Luego con información trimestral, lo ocurrido durante el año 2020 (pandemia) y la salida de la crisis entre 2021 y 2022 (pospandemia). La fuente de datos utilizada es la plataforma estadística de la OIT denominada ILOSTAT2 que permite cierta comparabilidad entre países. La región de Latinoamérica y el Caribe (LAC) está conformada por 33 países, sin embargo, una gran parte de estos tiene incompleta la serie de indicadores trimestrales para el período bajo análisis. En este sentido, aclaramos para cada uno de los indicadores la cantidad de países con los que se cuenta información, que son como máximo trece.
    Keywords: Mercado de Trabajo; Brecha de Género; Impacto Socioeconómico; Pandemia; COVID-19; Aislamiento Social; América Latina; 2014-2022;
    Date: 2023–06
  14. By: Aspremont Alexandre; Ben Arous Simon; Bricongne Jean-Charles; Lietti Benjamin; Meunier Baptiste
    Abstract: The Covid crisis has demonstrated the need for alternative data, in real-time and with global coverage. This paper exploits daily infrared images from satellites to track economic activity in advanced and emerging countries. We first develop a framework to read, clean and exploit satellite images. We construct an algorithm based on the laws of physics and machine learning to detect the heat produced by cement plants in activity. This allows to monitor in real-time if a cement plant is functioning. Using this information on more than 500 plants, we construct a satellite-based index tracking activity. Using this satellite index outperforms benchmark models and alternative indicators for nowcasting the activity in the cement industry and in the construction sector. Exploring the granularity of daily and plant-level data, using neural networks yields significantly more accurate predictions. Overall, combining satellite images and machine learning allows to track industrial activity accurately.
    Keywords: Data Science, Big Data, Satellite Data, Machine Learning, Nowcasting, Cement, Construction, Industry, Economic Activity, Neural Network
    JEL: C51 C81 E23 E37
    Date: 2023
  15. By: Tim Krieger; Daniel Nientiedt
    Abstract: The economic tradition of ordoliberalism, understood as the theoretical and policy ideas of the Freiburg School, emerged in 1930s and 1940s Germany. In the years thereafter, it was quickly superseded by Keynesianism and other theories imported from the English-speaking world. The crisis in Keynesian economics in the mid-1970s led to what has been described as a “renaissance of ordoliberal reasoning” (Gebhard Kirchgässner) during the late 1970s and the 1980s. The present paper describes this development in detail and shows how it affected the academic discourse and, more indirectly, policymaking. In academic economics, ordoliberal concepts were used to inform debates about pressing issues of the day such as unemployment, social security reform, competition policy, the provision of public goods, and European integration. There was, however, no consensus on the methodological question of whether ordoliberalism could be fully integrated into international research programs such as the new institutional economics or constitutional economics. The paper argues that the renaissance of ordoliberalism failed to have a lasting impact on German academic economics and discusses possible implications of this finding for the future of the ordoliberal research agenda.
    Keywords: ordoliberalism, Freiburg school, economic policy, social market economy, Keynesianisnm, European integration
    JEL: B29 D40 E60 H60 P16
    Date: 2023
  16. By: Mikhail Chernov; Magnus Dahlquist
    Abstract: We review the literature on multi-horizon currency risk premiums. We show how the multi-horizon implications arise from the classic present-value relationship. We further show how these implications manifest themselves in the interaction between bond and currency risk premiums. This link is strengthened by explicitly accounting for stochastic discount factors. Information about currency risk premiums at different horizons presents a wealth of new evidence and challenges for existing models.
    JEL: E43 E52 F31 G12 G15
    Date: 2023–06
  17. By: Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
    Abstract: Analyzing US macro data via a structural vector-autoregressive model, Deleidi and Mazzucato (2021) find strong positive spillover of mission-oriented government spending on private research and development activity and on overall economic dynamism ("crowding in"). However the result hinges on specific transformation of the data. Deleidi and Mazzucato deflate all variables in their model via the GDP deflator. Applying originally price adjusted data a spillover on GDP cannot be found. Estimating the model with data starting in 1984, the results point at 'crowding out' of private research and development activity.
    Keywords: Replcation study, Mission oriented innovation policies, Fiscal multiplier, Sraffian supermultiplier
    JEL: C32 E22 E62 O25 O30
    Date: 2023
  18. By: Aline Bütikofer; Rita Ginja; Krzysztof Karbownik; Fanny Landaud
    Abstract: We estimate health associations across generations and dynasties using information on healthcare visits from administrative data for the entire Norwegian population. A parental mental health diagnosis is associated with a 9.3 percentage point (40%) higher probability of a mental health diagnosis of their adolescent child. Intensive margin physical and mental health associations are similar, and dynastic estimates account for about 40% of the intergenerational persistence. We also show that a policy targeting additional health resources for the young children of adults diagnosed with mental health conditions reduced the parent-child mental health association by about 40%.
    JEL: I14 I18 J12 J62
    Date: 2023–07

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