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on Investment |
| By: | Hälbig, Mirja; Mertens, Matthias; Müller, Steffen |
| Abstract: | We study the productivity effect of the German national minimum wage by applying administrative firm data. At the firm level, we confirm positive effects on wages and negative employment effects and document higher productivity even net of output price increases. We find higher wages but no employment effects at the level of aggregate industry × region cells. The minimum wage increased aggregate productivity in manufacturing. We do not find that employment reallocation across firms contributed to these aggregate productivity gains, nor do we find improvements in allocative efficiency. Instead, the productivity gains from the minimum wage result from within-firm productivity improvements only. |
| Keywords: | minimum wage, productivity, reallocation |
| JEL: | D24 J31 L11 L25 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:82023&r=inv |
| By: | Battisti, Michele (University of Glasgow); Fedorets, Alexandra (DIW Berlin); Kinne, Lavinia (Ifo Institute for Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | While gender differences in labor force participation and wages have been studied extensively, gender gaps in cognitive skills among adults are not yet well understood. Using the PIAAC dataset, this paper presents novel findings on cognitive skill distributions by gender across 34 countries. Despite increasing educational equality, inequalities in numeracy skills favoring men compared to women are pervasive. These skill differences account for a sizable part of the gender wage gap. Furthermore, there are larger disadvantages for women at the top of the wage distribution, which are complemented by lower returns to skills compared to men. We also find that these numeracy-wage patterns are especially pronounced for parents and for those with the highest degree in a non-STEM field of study. |
| Keywords: | gender wage gap, skills, numeracy, PIAAC |
| JEL: | I24 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16134&r=inv |
| By: | Gustavo J. Bobonis; Paul Gertler; Marco Gonzalez-Navarro; Simeon Nichter |
| Abstract: | Does combating corruption reduce clientelism? We examine the impact of a prominent anti-corruption program on clientelism using a novel representative survey of rural Brazilians. Randomized audits reduce politicians’ provision of campaign handouts, decrease citizens’ demands for private goods, and reduce requests fulfilled by politicians. With regards to mechanisms, audits undermine clientelist relationships by reducing citizens’ interactions with politicians and their knowledge of incumbents. Furthermore, audits significantly deteriorate citizens’ perceptions of politician reciprocity in a hypothetical trust game. Results also offer novel insights into audits’ dynamic effects: they have more pronounced effects in the short run, especially during electoral periods. |
| JEL: | O10 P37 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31266&r=inv |
| By: | Argan, Damiano; Gary-Bobo, Robert; Goussé, Marion |
| Abstract: | We show that the expected real wages commanded by some highere ducation degrees decreased in absolute terms in France, in the past two decades, and that this drop is not due to adverse selection. To study the returns to degrees and experience, we assume the existence of a finite number of latent types and estimate a finite-mixture model. Each type has its own log-wage equation, experience accumulation and education-choice equation. This allows us to decompose the treatment effects of education as an average of type-dependent effects. We then show that some unobserved types experienced a real-wage drop while others benefited from an increase, with the same degree. The observed “flattening” of returns to experience is also heterogeneous. In the case of Master degrees, the estimated distribution of latent types indicates that student selection improved with time, in spite of the fact that the number of graduates increased substantially. An excess supply of graduate might therefore be a likely explanation for the devaluation of Master’s degrees. |
| Keywords: | Wages; Returns to Education; Returns to Experience; Human Capital; Selection; Unobserved Heterogeneity; Finite-Mixture Models; Latent Types. |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:docweb:2304&r=inv |
| By: | Olga Takács (Corvinus University of Budapest); János Vincze (Corvinus University of Budapest and Centre for Economic and Regional Studies) |
| Abstract: | The gender earnings gap can be attributed either to the different distribution of males and females across jobs or to within job biases in favour of men. The latter is frequently called the wage structure effect, and it may be interpreted as wage discrimination against women. In this paper we focus on this second source of the gap. In particular, we study the heterogeneity of the wage structure effect by looking for the main drivers of it. On Hungarian matched employer-employee data we identify those firm-worker profiles that exhibit extremely high gender wage differentials We apply the Causal Forest methodology, borrowed from the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) literature, which has been utilized in several observational studies, recently. Our findings show that those firms that pay relatively high wages tend to discriminate against women most strongly, and especially with respect to women who have spent a longer time in the same firm. But this tendency is moderated by regional effects; where demand side competition is strong the wage structure effect tends to be smaller. These findings are, by and large, in accordance with the view that relative bargaining power is relevant for wage-setting, or, alternatively, firms practice third degree wage discrimination. |
| Keywords: | Gender pay gap, heterogeneous wage structure effects, random forest regression. |
| JEL: | J16 J31 C14 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2304&r=inv |
| By: | Yannick Hemmerlé; Enes Sunel; Filippo Maria D’Arcangelo; Tobias Kruse; David Haugh; Álvaro Pina; Mauro Pisu; Cassandra Castle; Giuliana Sarcina |
| Abstract: | Governments rapidly provided large support to help households and firms face the 2021-22 energy price crisis. Drawing on the OECD Energy Support Measures Tracker and country case studies, this paper documents countries’ policy responses and draws lessons for enhancing countries’ preparedness to future energy price shocks. Support implemented or announced by countries so far has been largely untargeted and often fiscally costly. As such it might add to inflationary pressures and in many cases reduce incentives to save energy and transition away from fossil fuels. Reliance on imported energy, technical obstacles to implement a targeted approach and political economy constraints help explain the type of support countries provided. There is now a case for withdrawing broad-based energy support, given the recent moderation in energy prices and ongoing or planned minimum-wage and welfare-benefit increases to compensate for high inflation. Digitalisation would help improve the quality of support countries can provide to face a future energy or other crisis by speeding up payment delivery and facilitating a more targeted approach based on vulnerability factors beyond low income, such as the inability to renovate an energy-inefficient home. Ensuring that support measures maintain incentives for energy savings and encourage energy diversification, combined with investments to accelerate the green transition, is key to reducing vulnerability to energy price shocks. |
| Keywords: | Energy demand, Energy prices, Energy supply, Environment, Fiscal Policy, Government Budget, Government Expenditure, Social Assistance, Welfare programmes |
| JEL: | H31 H32 H53 I38 P18 Q41 Q43 Q48 H61 |
| Date: | 2023–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaab:32-en&r=inv |
| By: | Gendron-Carrier, Nicolas (McGill University) |
| Abstract: | I investigate the mechanisms that drive sorting into entrepreneurship and entrepreneurial success among young individuals. I use Canadian matched owner-employeremployee data to conduct my investigation. Empirically, older entrepreneurs and entrepreneurs who have previously worked in high-wage firms tend to do better. To explain these findings, I develop a dynamic Roy model of career choice that features heterogeneous employers, human capital accumulation, and unobserved heterogeneity across individuals. Among other things, I find that prior work experience is particularly valuable for "subsistence" entrepreneurs. I use the estimated model to evaluate policies designed to promote entrepreneurship. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship, human capital, firm heterogeneity, career choice, dynamic Roy model, unobserved heterogeneity |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J62 L26 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16145&r=inv |
| By: | Davies, Grant |
| Abstract: | A strong US dollar and high international commodity prices have characterised much of 2022. To some, this juxtaposition is strange given the observed historical relationship between the two. This paper uses some simple regression models to provide insights and then utilises nonlinear auto regressive distributed lag (NARDL) models to investigate the possibility of an asymmetric relationship between the US dollar and international food prices. A sizeable proportion of the historical changes in international food prices seem to be explained by changes in the value of the US dollar. Evidence for short-run asymmetry in the relationship is found. In the long-run, such asymmetry is rejected by two of the three regression models utilised and the “unit-elastic” association between the US dollar and international prices cannot be rejected at the aggregate ‘food price’ level. Across individual agricultural products there are however notable differences. The provisional econometric modelling suggests that (i) a stronger US dollar in 2022 put some significant downward pressure on international food prices and (ii) allowing for asymmetry can be important in capturing economic relationships. |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis, International Development |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc23:334517&r=inv |
| By: | Lambrecht, Isabel; Mahrt, Kristi; Cho, Ame |
| Abstract: | Women’s and youth’s roles in agriculture vary across contexts and over time. Limited quantitative information is available on this topic from Southeast Asia in general, and particularly from Myanmar. We use nationally representative data to document women’s and youth’s involvement in agriculture in rural Myanmar. First, we show that women and youth contribute substantially to agriculture. Women in farm households perform 39 percent of household farm labour days, and 43 percent of agricultural wage workers are women. Twenty-seven percent of adults performing household agricultural work are youth and 22 percent of agricultural wage workers are youth. Yet, women’s farm wages are 29 percent lower than men’s farm wages. Youth’s farm wages are 17 percent lower than farm wages of non-youth for men, but we don’t find similar wage differences for women. Second, we find a significant gender gap in land rights, but the share of women who have land rights is still sizable. Nineteen percent of adult men are documented landowners compared to seven percent of adult women. Few youth have land rights, but the likelihood increases with age. Third, we explore cropping patterns. No crops are grown exclusively by men or women, but rice is more often and vegetables are less often cultivated by households where men are the sole agricultural decision makers. Finally, we focus on access to credit. Women receive loans less often than men (21 percent vs. 26 percent) and youth rarely receive loans (4 percent). Women’s loans are more often aimed at alleviating basic needs, such as food and health expenditures. Men’s loans are more often aimed at investment in productive activities, especially farming. The evidence suggests that including men, women and youth equally in agricultural projects and policy making is critical to advance equity and achieve development goals. |
| Keywords: | MYANMAR; BURMA; SOUTHEAST ASIA; ASIA; gender; youth; agriculture; women; role of women; equity |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2071b&r=inv |
| By: | Bian, Jiangze; Da, Zhi; He, Zhiguo; Lou, Dong; Shue, Kelly; Zhou, Hao |
| Abstract: | We use granular data covering regulated (brokerage-financed) and unregulated (shadow-financed) margin trading during the 2015 market turmoil in China to provide the first systematic analysis of margin investors' characteristics, leverage management policies, and liquidation choices. We show that leverage constraints induced substantial forced and preemptive sales, and leverage and cash management differed substantially across investor and account types. We explore the relation between margin trading and shock propagation, and show that China's price limit rule led to unintended contagion across stocks. Compared to brokerage investors, shadow investors were closer to their leverage constraints, and played a more significant role in transmitting shocks across stocks. |
| Keywords: | margin trading; leverage management; liquidation policy; contagion |
| JEL: | G00 G12 |
| Date: | 2021–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:118851&r=inv |
| By: | Olkers, Tim; Liu, Shuang; Mußhoff, Oliver |
| Abstract: | The availability of formal credit is crucial for the development of the agricultural sector as it can enhance farmers’ purchasing power to acquire inputs and agricultural technology. This, in turn, can increase productivity and resilience throughout the sector. Therefore, the analysis of bank client and loan data in the agricultural sector in a developing country is of interest. We explore the question of who the clients of agricultural credit are and whether they can be clustered into different groups by using an unsupervised machine learning technique. We also investigate whether the loan repayment performance of these clusters differs based on various logit regressions. According to our results, there are 3 different clusters of farmers in Mali that differ by personal characteristics (such as age or gender) as well as credit demand characteristics (e.g., loan amount, interest rates, credit duration, number of credits). Each cluster that differs in their characteristics demonstrates a dissimilar repayment performance. Hence, different instruments as well as communication designs are needed to meet the financial needs of the different clusters and to strengthen the resilience of different groups of farmers in Mali. Our findings provide an important foundation for the design of future agricultural policies and financial products for the agricultural sector as they emphasise the heterogeneity of agricultural lenders in general. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc23:334547&r=inv |
| By: | Amolegbe, Khadijat Busola; Fontep, Eugenie Rose; Ahodode, Bernadin Géraud Comlan; Pagal, Emmanuelle Dorcas Mbanga; Ardelkrim, Araar |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of climate shocks and crop diversification on household food security in Nigeria by focusing on gender-disaggregated effects. We combine historical rainfall and temperature datasets with the World Bank’s Living Standards Measurement Study - Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) for Nigeria. Furthermore, we use an adapted version of the crop diversification Weighted Shannon index (WSI) to measure crop diversification. The food security indicators adopted are the Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS), the reduced Coping Strategy Index (rCSI), and the per capita food expenditures. We use a set of panel and dynamic panel models for our analysis, and our results show that climate shocks have negative effects on food security, especially in households with men plot managers. However, we find that crop diversification is positively linked to food security. Our results show the need to target policies to encourage crop diversification in households and promote crop diversification components in women empowerment programs. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc23:334551&r=inv |
| By: | Ryan Woodgate; Eckhard Hein; Ricardo Summa |
| Abstract: | Since autonomous demand has to be financed independently of income from current production, this paper starts with the requirement that autonomous demand-led growth models have to include endogenous money and credit, and hence financial dynamics. It then seeks to make two contributions. First, we show that the inclusion of financial stock-flow interactions in a simple closed economy autonomous demand-led growth model provides an endogenous mechanism which, under certain conditions, aligns two autonomous growth rates, as a requirement for long-run equilibrium. Second, using that model, we prove that the relative size of autonomous growth contributions may be misleading as a guide to classify growth regimes if autonomous growth rates are interdependent, both for the steady state growth equilibrium as well as for the traverse towards this equilibrium. Furthermore, we show that the relative growth contributions are economic policy contingent. Therefore, in Sraffian supermultiplier demand-led growth decomposition exercises, interdependencies between autonomous growth components should not be ignored when growth drivers are supposed to be identified, both in medium- to long-run growth regime analysis, as well as in the analysis of autonomous drivers of short-run cycles. |
| Keywords: | Sraffian supermultiplier and endogenous credit, two autonomous growth drivers, demand-led growth accounting, growth regimes |
| JEL: | E11 E12 E20 E62 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2307&r=inv |
| By: | Gardberg, Malin (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Heyman, Fredrik (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Tåg, Joacim (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | Is technology or trade driving increases in wage inequality? We propose that technology interacts with trade in the form of foreign direct investments to widen domestic wage inequality. We show that foreign acquisitions of domestic firms disproportionately affect wages for workers who perform tasks sensitive to the technology specialization (software or robotics) of the acquiring firm. Based on Swedish matched employer-employee data covering two decades and staggered difference-in-differences methods we find wages to decline by up to 5.2% annually over an eight-year post period. Our results suggest that a trade policy aimed at attracting foreign companies with high technological capabilities can help countries advance technologically, but this may come at the cost of increased domestic wage inequality. |
| Keywords: | Acquisitions; AI; Automation; Inequality; Robots; Technology; Trade; Mergers and Acquisitions; Multinational firms; Wages |
| JEL: | F23 G34 J30 R10 |
| Date: | 2023–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1457&r=inv |
| By: | Steven J. Davis; Pawel Krolikowski |
| Abstract: | We design and field an innovative survey of unemployment insurance (UI) recipients that yields new insights about wage stickiness on the layoff margin. Most UI recipients express a willingness to accept wage cuts of 5-10 percent to save their jobs, and one-third would accept a 25 percent cut. Yet worker-employer discussions about cuts in pay, benefits, or hours in lieu of layoffs are exceedingly rare. When asked why employers don’t raise the possibility of job-preserving pay cuts, four-in-ten UI recipients don’t know. Sixteen percent say cuts would undermine morale or lead the best workers to quit, and 39 percent don’t think wage cuts would save their jobs. For those who lost union jobs, 45 percent say contractual restrictions prevent wage cuts. Among those on permanent layoff who reject our hypothetical pay cuts, half say they have better outside options, and 38 percent regard the proposed pay cut as insulting. Our results suggest that wage cuts acceptable to both worker and employer could potentially prevent a quarter of the layoffs in our sample. We draw on our findings and other evidence to assess theories of wage stickiness and its role in layoffs. |
| Keywords: | Wage Rigidity; Sticky Wages; Layoffs; Saving Jobs; Unemployment Insurance |
| JEL: | E24 E31 J31 J64 |
| Date: | 2023–05–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:96137&r=inv |
| By: | Philippe Le Coent (UMR G-EAU - Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs, Usages - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM)); Cécile Hérivaux (BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM), UMR G-EAU - Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs, Usages - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Javier Calatrava (UPCT - Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena / Technical University of Cartagena); Roxane Marchal (Caisse Centrale de Réassurance - parent); David Moncoulon (Caisse Centrale de Réassurance - parent); Camilo Benitez-Avila (Deltares [The Netherlands]); Mónica Altamirano (TU Delft - Delft University of Technology); Amandine Gnonlonfin (UCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Ali Douai (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Guillaume Piton (UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, IGE - Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Kieran Dartée (Fields Factors); Thomas Biffin (Fields Factors); Nabila Arfaoui (UCLy - Université Catholique de Lyon (UCLy)); Nina Graveline (UMR Innovation - Innovation et Développement dans l'Agriculture et l'Alimentation - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | Evidence are dearly needed to understand under which conditions it is relevant for decisions makers to invest in NBS for water-related risk. This chapter presents the methodological framework developed for the economic assessment of NBS for water-related risks and its application to seven case studies. We particularly develop methods for the evaluation of implementation and opportunity costs, the assessment of the reduction of damage costs, and the monetary value of co-benefits. The study confirms that the cost of implementation and maintenance of NBS strategies is lower than the cost of grey solutions for the same level of water risk management, emphasizing the better cost-effectiveness of these solutions. Benefits in terms of avoided damages are however generally not sufficient to cover investment and maintenance costs. Co-benefits represent the largest share of the value generated by NBS strategies. The overall cost-benefit analysis implemented in four cases, is positive in three case studies and negative in one. This confirms the importance to carry out thorough economic assessments for the elaboration of Natural Assurance Schemes. |
| Keywords: | Nature Based Solution, Economic assessment, Ecosystem service, Flood risk |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04093533&r=inv |
| By: | Gontero, Sonia |
| Abstract: | En América Latina, aproximadamente una de cada cuatro personas en edad de trabajar es joven, de entre 15 y 24 años, edad en que la mayoría de las personas hacen la transición de la escuela al mercado laboral. Esta población joven representa un valioso recurso para la región y un potencial para incrementar el crecimiento económico. En este documento se presentan indicadores que dan cuenta de las barreras que excluyen a las personas jóvenes del acceso a un trabajo decente, principalmente quienes provienen de hogares de menores ingresos y las mujeres. Se plantean opciones de política para reducir estas disparidades y facilitar la transición al mercado laboral con un enfoque integral que potencie la demanda, apoye la oferta y facilite la intermediación entre ambas. |
| Keywords: | JUVENTUD, EMPLEO, EMPLEO DE LOS JOVENES, MERCADO LABORAL, COVID-19, VIRUS, PANDEMIAS, ASPECTOS ECONOMICOS, POLITICA DE EMPLEO, ESTADISTICAS DEL EMPLEO, YOUTH, EMPLOYMENT, YOUTH EMPLOYMENT, LABOUR MARKET, COVID-19, VIRUSES, PANDEMICS, ECONOMIC ASPECTS, EMPLOYMENT POLICY, EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS |
| Date: | 2023–05–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:48897&r=inv |
| By: | Fernandez de Soto, Guillermo; Rugeles, Andres |
| Abstract: | This working paper presents the main challenges that Latin America will face in the coming years, within a global context of greater fragmentation, conflict, and disorder, known as "Cold Peace". Over a medium and long-term time horizon, it is possible to identify 5 megatrends: climate change and energy, new technological developments, population, inequality and emerging middle classes, and urban development. The region should avoid the risk of irrelevance and isolation, especially in the face of the geopolitical and economic transition towards Asia as the new center of gravity. Therefore, Latin America needs to enhance its capacity to influence and to address the most critical issues such as creation of wealth and prosperity, peace and social inclusion, and productivity |
| Keywords: | Latin America; megatrends; Cold Peace; multilateralism; United States; China; Asia; climate change; new technological developments; population; inequality; middle classes; urban development |
| JEL: | R14 J01 J1 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:118786&r=inv |
| By: | Quentin Plantec (TBS - Toulouse Business School); Benjamin Cabanes (IHEIE - Institut des Hautes Etudes pour l’Innovation et l’Entrepreneuriat (IHEIE) - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, i3-CRG - Centre de recherche en gestion i3 - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Pascal Le Masson (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Benoit Weil (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04099283&r=inv |
| By: | Ke Wan; Yiwen Liu |
| Abstract: | When tackling binary optimization problems using quantum algorithms, the conventional Ising representation and Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) encounter difficulties in efficiently handling errors for large-scale problems involving multiple constraints. To address these challenges, this paper presents a hybrid framework that combines the use of standard Ising Hamiltonians to solve a subset of the constraints, while employing non-Ising formulations to represent and address the remaining constraints. The resolution of these non-Ising constraints is achieved through either penalty dephasing or the quantum Zeno effect. This innovative approach leads to a collection of quantum circuits with adaptable structures, depending on the chosen representation for each constraint. Furthermore, this paper introduces a novel technique that utilizes the quantum Zeno effect by frequently measuring the constraint flag, enabling the resolution of any optimization constraint. Theoretical properties of these algorithms are discussed, and their performance in addressing practical aircraft loading problems is highly promising, showcasing significant potential for a wide range of industrial applications. |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2305.08056&r=inv |
| By: | Podoba, Zoia (Petersburg Polytechnic University) |
| Abstract: | The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is a relatively newly-formed regional integration bloc. It evolved on the basis of the Customs Union of Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus in 2015 with Armenia and Kyrgyzstan joining the agreement. The foreign economic aspirations of the EAEU as a single market, in the context of tense relations with Western partners, are turned towards Asian countries. The pivot to the East is supported by the ideological concept of “Greater Eurasia” (sometimes translated as “Big Eurasia”), which implies more extensive cooperation with the economies of Central, East, and South Asia. At a time when political efforts to bring the Union and Korea closer together have been put on hold, the paper aims to provide a comprehensive description of the bilateral merchandise trade pattern between the EAEU and the Republic of Korea to verify if statistical evidence on bilateral trade provides ground for the development of guiding actual policy deliberations in the future. Trade Intensity Index (TII), the sectoral bilateral coefficient of revealed comparative advantages, and the standard Grubel-Lloyd index have been used in order to analyze the bilateral trade between the EAEU and the Republic of Korea. |
| Keywords: | Analysis of Trade Pattern; EAEU and South Korea |
| Date: | 2023–05–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:2023_016&r=inv |
| By: | Alessio Baldassarre (Ministry of Economy and Finance); Danilo Carullo (Ministry of Economy and Finance); Paolo Di Caro (University of Catania); Elisa Fusco (Sogei SpA Italy); Pasquale Giacobbe (University of Calabria); Carlo Orecchia (Ministry of Economy and Finance) |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of this paper is to present an innovative approach to estimate the Italian inter-regional trade flows in terms of final and intermediate consumption. It contributes to the literature in several ways. The first innovative feature concerns the data used in the analysis. We reconstruct the flow of households’ final consumption by using administrative data from the Italian VAT returns. The result is then used for estimating a traditional gravity model for final consumption trade; the estimated coefficients are furtherly exploited to compute the flows of intermediate consumption. The second contribution relates to the modeling approach: we combine the literature on gravity models with a spatial autoregressive specification, to take into account spatial dependence in the bilateral flows, and a geographically weighted regression estimator, to control for behavioral instability of data over space. In addition to that, our model controls for commodity dependence by including them as a fixed effect in a pseudo-panel view, where the time dimension captures the commodities dynamics. Therefore, the strategy here introduced is useful to consider both local level economic relations and spillovers, existing between regions, and the link among different types of products. |
| Keywords: | Inter-regional flows; Gravity models; O-D Spatial autoregressive models; Geographically Weighted Regression |
| JEL: | C21 D57 R15 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahg:wpaper:wp2023-18&r=inv |
| By: | Juan Sebastián Uribe Quintero |
| Abstract: | El propósito de este documento es analizar la influencia de las relaciones entre el Gobierno nacional y el Congreso de la República de Colombia en las políticas públicas que se aprueban en el proceso legislativo. Se presenta una investigación cualitativa que consiste en un estudio de caso del Plan Nacional de Desarrollo (PND) 2018-2022, propuesto durante el Gobierno del presidente Iván Duque Márquez. La particularidad de este proceso es el hecho de que el presidente Duque planteara una forma de interacción con el Congreso basada exclusivamente en un debate ideológico, excluyendo la posibilidad de entablar negociaciones de carácter transaccional con los congresistas para lograr su apoyo a la agenda legislativa. Para esto se realizaron entrevistas semiestructuradas a miembros del Gobierno y el Congreso, se describieron las bases de datos de ponentes y enmiendas, y se aplicó la metodología de Arantes y Couto (2009, 2010) utilizada por Andréa Marcondes de Freitas (2016) para determinar el aporte de cada rama al resultado del PND. A grandes rasgos se observó que la estrategia del Gobierno nacional supuso un Congreso de la República más fuerte y crítico, que en un punto puso en riesgo la aprobación del proyecto de PND en el trámite legislativo. Esto llevó a que el Gobierno modificara su aproximación al trámite legislativo, de manera que hubo una transacción de puestos por apoyos para lograr la aprobación del plan. El documento concluye con una serie de recomendaciones de política pública que apuntan a mejorar las relaciones entre el Gobierno nacional y el Congreso de la República en el proceso legislativo en general y el trámite de discusión del Plan Nacional de Desarrollo en particular. ****** The aim of this document is to analyse the influence of the relationship between Colombia’s National Government and its Congress of the Republic regarding the public policies approved through the legislative process. To achieve this a qualitative investigation was carried out consisting of a case study of the Plan Nacional de Desarrollo 2018-2022 (PND) –National Development Plan–, proposed by the president Iván Duque Márquez. This process is particularly relevant because President Duque proposed a way of interacting with Congress based exclusively in an ideological debate, therefore excluding the possibility of establishing negotiations of transactional character with congressman and congresswoman to win their support in the legislative agenda. In order to make this happen semi-structured interviews to congressmen, congresswomen and members of government were conducted, the databases of speakers and amendments were studied, and the methodology of Arantes and Couto (2009, 2010) used by Andréa Marcondes de Freitas (2016) was applied to determine the contribution of each branch to the result of the PND. Broadly speaking, the analysis shows that the strategy implemented by the Government resulted in a stronger and more critical Congress of the Republic, which at one point put at risk the approval of the project of PND. The Government had to change its way of approaching Congress and, therefore, there was a transaction of positions for support to obtain the approval of the plan. Finally, a series of recommendations are made in order to improve the relationship between Government and Congress, both in general and in the process of the discussion process of the PND in particular. |
| Keywords: | Congreso de la República, Gobierno nacional, Plan Nacional de Desarrollo, relaciones ejecutivo-legislativo, política distributiva, proceso legislativo. |
| Date: | 2022–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000547:020761&r=inv |
| By: | Karen Chapple; Julia Greenberg; Jackelyn Hwang; Jae Sik Jeon; Bina Shrimali; Iris Zhang |
| Abstract: | The San Francisco Bay Area is an extreme case of a constrained housing market, with job growth outpacing new housing production and resulting in supply shortages and price spikes that date back at least 30 years. The Bay Area’s structural shortage of housing that is affordable at all income levels affects the regional economy by increasing commuting and housing costs, which creates barriers to full economic participation, especially for lower income workers. An array of solutions have been considered, including subsidized housing production, affordable housing preservation, and tenant protection programs. However, there is little evaluation research available to inform which housing solutions will be most effective in stabilizing communities so that those who wish to stay are able to, even in the midst of an influx of newcomers. This study seeks to fill this gap by examining the impacts of market-rate development, subsidized development, and tenant protections, including rent stabilization and just cause for evictions protections, on movers. Specifically, this study builds two unique and cross-validated datasets on mobility and links them to a bespoke block-level housing construction database. We use granular data on individual and household mobility to assess how specific housing interventions impact both direct and indirect displacement by looking at moves both out of and into neighborhoods with different characteristics in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area. Our research reveals that new market-rate construction in a neighborhood results in a slight increase in people of all income levels moving in and moving out, i.e., churn. The increase in rates of displacement (involuntary moves) for very low- to moderate-socio-economic groups is not as high as commonly feared, at 0.5% to 2% above normal rates. However, the highest socio-economic group disproportionately benefits from new market-rate housing production—they are the least likely to move out and the most likely to move into neighborhoods with new construction. We also find that rent stabilization and just cause eviction protections help residents of the lowest socio-economic status remain in their neighborhoods. At the same time, these protections may have exclusionary impacts as we find that fewer low-income people move into neighborhoods with tenant protections. Together, these findings suggest that equitable solutions to the housing crisis will require more than just upzoning and tenant protections—these are complementary solutions, but not enough. Preserving unsubsidized affordable housing and substantially expanding social housing would help mitigate displacement and exclusion while addressing the housing affordability crisis through market rate housing production and tenant protections. Social housing is the provision of rental or homeownership units affordable at a moderate income or below, and is run by a public or nonprofit entity. To work, it would need to be widely implemented, requiring government investment at levels that match the urgency of the housing crisis. |
| Keywords: | housing; market-rate development; subsidized development; tenant protections; rent stabilization; social housing |
| Date: | 2022–03–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfcw:93849&r=inv |
| By: | Sotarauta, Markku (Tampere University); Grillitsch, Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | The regional development studies community increasingly considers the significance of agency when working to reveal the secrets of local and regional development. While the rapidly emerging literature on agency has increased our understanding of what people do or fail to do for their regions, many scholars have faced challenges incorporating novel conceptual lenses in a discipline more accustomed to studying structures. With the aim to contribute to a collective learning process, we analyze 27 review reports received for a special issue in Regional Studies on “Agency and Regional Development Against All Odds”. We found challenges, for instance, related to articulating the contribution, conceptual layering and drift, and slippery research questions. These three challenges point to the need to decide on the main concept and theory (the hero of the dish), which is particularly challenging and daunting when it requires sacrificing safe conceptual terrain and exploring a more unknown, emerging field. The authors of the special issue have responded brilliantly to the reviewers’ recommendations and with these reflections, we hope to share this learning experience. The work, however, continues - to improve our capacity to study human agency, we must take pains to clarify meta-theoretical commitments, elaborate middle-range theories, and experiment with a variety of methods. The growing body of work on the relationships between human agency and structures is an exciting ontological, theoretical, and methodological programme in the making. |
| Keywords: | Agency and structure; methodology; regional development |
| JEL: | B52 R10 R50 |
| Date: | 2023–06–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2023_006&r=inv |
| By: | Nathalie Scholl; Sébastien Turban; Peter N. Gal |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the methodology used for crosswalking occupation-based measures of Green (“environmentally friendly”) and Brown (“polluting”) jobs from the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) system to the International Standard Occupation Classification (ISCO) 08 at the most detailed (4-digit) level. The original, task-based Greenness scores by Vona et al. (2018) are provided at the 8-digit SOC level, and the industry-based Brownness measures are provided in 6-digit SOC. Crosswalking these measures requires several choices in terms of weighting and aggregating, which this paper describes in detail. The robustness of the resulting measures to the different weighting options and underlying assumption is tested using Linked Employer-Employee data from Portugal. An empirical application to the Productivity-Greenness link at the firm level shows the robustness of this link to different weighting choices, and confirms that all of the different measures derived are consistent in measuring the Greenness of jobs. |
| Keywords: | Brown occupations, Green occupations, Green skills, Green transition, , Occupation Classification, productivity |
| JEL: | J21 J24 L25 |
| Date: | 2023–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaac:33-en&r=inv |
| By: | Raphaël Martin; Thomas Renault (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Baptiste Roux |
| Abstract: | Le lien entre capital humain et productivité a fait l'objet de nombreuses recherches dont les résultats convergent : le stock de capital humain constitue l'un des déterminants majeurs de la croissance de la productivité (voir les travaux fondateurs de Nelson et Phelps, 1966 ; Lucas, 1988 ou Barro, 1991). Dans un document de travail récent, France Stratégie (2020) évalue quantitativement le rôle prépondérant, à hauteur des trois quarts de l'effet total, du capital humain dans le ralentissement de la productivité au cours des 30 dernières années. Parmi les disciplines évaluées dans le cadre des enquêtes de compétences (lecture et écriture, mathématiques, sciences), les mathématiques focalisent l'attention en raison de la dégradation particulièrement forte des scores français, motivant par la suite la remise du rapport Villani‐Torossian, datant de 2018, ainsi que le rapport de la Commission des finances (2021) sur l'enseignement des mathématiques. L'utilisation de compétences mathématiques est en outre associée aux secteurs de l'innovation, susceptibles d'agir comme moteur de la productivité à l'échelle de l'économie. Jones (1995) estime ainsi que les scientifiques et ingénieurs travaillant en R&D sont à l'origine de 50 % de la croissance américaine de la productivité à long terme. Peri et al. (2015) identifient un lien de causalité positif entre les études scientifiques et les revenus des individus, théoriquement liés à leur productivité. Ce Focus étudie le lien entre le niveau de compétences en mathématiques, ou numératie ci‐après, et la productivité du travail. La première partie s'appuie sur plusieurs enquêtes internationales sur les compétences pour mettre en évidence la dégradation du niveau français en mathématiques depuis 30 ans. Nous caractérisons également l'hétérogénéité de cette dégradation par une étude des résultats des élèves se situant à différentes positions de la distribution des scores. Une fois ce constat exposé, nous évaluons le lien statistique avec la productivité du travail afin d'estimer les risques économiques associés à la baisse de niveau. L'analyse empirique comporte plusieurs spécifications à différentes échelles et établit une corrélation positive entre niveau de compétences en mathématiques et productivité du travail. |
| Date: | 2022–09–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04084079&r=inv |
| By: | Paola Molano Ayala; Mauricio Velásquez |
| Abstract: | La producción legislativa y el control político, como las principales actividades que realiza el Congreso, requieren de la organización y puesta en marcha de equipos de respaldo de los congresistas, que en Colombia se conocen como Unidades de Trabajo Legislativo (UTL). Las decisiones sobre cómo se organizan y llevan a cabo el trabajo estos equipos son discrecionales de cada congresista, de modo que estas revelan las maneras como cada uno de ellos entiende y asume su labor de representación política. No obstante, en Colombia se conoce poco sobre el funcionamiento de las UTL. Por ello, es relevante proponer un modelo conceptual de evaluación de la labor legislativa de las UTL, y aplicarlo a un caso. El modelo conceptual de evaluación de una UTL propuesto en este documento consta de los siguientes elementos: (i) agenda de representación; (ii) organización y distribución del trabajo; (iii) procesos de trabajo; (iv) estrategias para impulsar la agenda propia; (v) comunicaciones; y (vi) relación con la ciudadanía. Estos se aplicarán al caso de la UTL de la representante por Bogotá del Partido Alianza Verde, Juanita Goebertus, quien fue reconocida como la representante más destacada del país durante los anos 2019, 2020 y 2021. Para llevar a cabo este trabajo, se realizó una entrevista a profundidad con la Representante, y con la coordinadora de la UTL. Adicionalmente, se recibieron siete documentos de parte de los miembros de ese equipo, en los cuales describían sus funciones y cómo las ejecutaban. Si bien se reconoce que es posible que haya otras formas de organización y gestión de una UTL, el documento muestra un tipo de equipo que cuenta con una agenda de representación definida, la cual organiza y distribuye sus labores en torno a ella. ****** Making laws and political oversight of the Government, as the main activities carried out by Congress, require congressional support teams, known in Colombia as Legislative Work Units (LWU). The decision on how to organize these teams is at the discretion of each congressman and congresswoman, and reveals the way in which each one understands and assumes their work of political representation. However, little is known in Colombia about the functioning of the LWUs. That is why it is relevant to propose a conceptual model for the evaluation of legislative work based on these teams, and to apply it to a case. This document proposes a conceptual model for evaluating a LWU, that consists of the following elements: (i) representation agenda; (ii) organization and distribution of work; (iii) work processes; (iv) strategies to promote the agenda; (v) communications; and (vi) relationship with the citizenry. These will be applied to the case of the LWU of the representative for Bogotá of the Green Alliance Party, Juanita Goebertus, who was recognized as the most outstanding representative of the country during the years 2019, 2020 and 2021. In order to carry out this work, an in-depth interview was conducted with the representative and with the coordinator of the LWU. In addition, seven documents were received from the members of her team, in which they described their functions and how they performed them. Although it is recognized that there may be other ways of organizing and managing a LWU, the document shows a type of team with a clear representation agenda that organizes and distributes its work around it. |
| Keywords: | Congreso de la República de Colombia, representación política, Unidades deTrabajo Legislativo (UTL), funcionamiento del Congreso. |
| Date: | 2022–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000547:020762&r=inv |
| By: | Tilley, Lucas (The Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI)) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies a large-scale educational expansion to evaluate whether shocks to school inputs have an impact on the academic achievement of adult education students. I analyze the spillover effects of a Swedish policy that temporarily doubled enrollment in adult education, thus putting considerable strain on school inputs. Since the policy targeted individuals age 25 and over, my analysis focuses on individuals under age 25 to mitigate concerns that changes in student composition drive my findings. First, I establish that students in regions subject to larger enrollment shocks experienced stronger negative shocks to peer quality and school resources such as teacher credentials and perpupil expenditure. Then, I show that the stronger negative shocks to peer quality and school resources coincided with larger increases in course dropout. Taken together, the two sets of results suggest a causal link between school inputs and course dropout. |
| Keywords: | adult education; educational expansion; per-pupil spending; school resources; student achievement; teacher credentials |
| JEL: | I20 I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2023–04–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2023_009&r=inv |
| By: | Rozo, Sandra V. (World Bank); Quintana, Alejandra (Columbia University); Urbina, Maria José (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | How does easing the economic integration of forced migrants affect native voting behaviors in the Global South? This paper assesses how the regularization of half a million Venezuelan forced migrants affected the electoral choices of Colombian natives by comparing election results in municipalities with higher and lower take-up rates for a program that supports forced migrants. The findings show negligible impacts on native voting behavior. The study then conducted a survey experiment to investigate the lack of voter response. Even after receiving information about the program, Colombian voters showed no changes in voting intentions or prosocial views toward migrants. This suggests that their indifference did not stem from a lack of awareness about the program. In contrast, the electoral indifference of natives may be explained by the fact that the program did not change labor and crime outcomes for native Colombians, and most migrants remained in the informal sector despite benefiting from the program through improvements in labor conditions and better access to public services. |
| Keywords: | refugees, amnesties, electoral outcomes |
| JEL: | D72 F02 F22 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16171&r=inv |
| By: | Takahiro Akita (IUJ Research Institute, International University of Japan); Raquel Celeste (Department of Social Welfare and Development); Sachiko Miyata (Ritsumeikan University) |
| Abstract: | The Philippines has been successful in reducing inequality over the last two decades. This study conducts a two-stage hierarchical inequality decomposition analysis by location and education to explore the determinants of declining expenditure inequality using the Family Income and Expenditure Survey. In the period 1997-2006, falling inequality among urban households with tertiary education is the dominant determinant by explaining 74% of declining overall inequality. In the period 2006-2018, falling disparity between urban and rural areas is the main determinant by explaining 42% of declining overall inequality. Falling inequality among urban households with tertiary education contributed also, but its contribution is 25%. Though expenditure inequality has declined, its level is still very high. To further reduce expenditure inequality, it is imperative to reduce inequality among households with tertiary education. It is also important to reduce inequality between education groups, particularly between households with tertiary education and those with lower education. |
| Keywords: | expenditure inequality, Philippines, hierarchical inequality decomposition, roles of education, urban and rural dimensions |
| JEL: | I24 I25 O15 O18 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iuj:wpaper:ems_2023_07&r=inv |
| By: | Volker, Jamey M.B. Ph.D; Hosseinzade, Reyhane; Handy, Susan L. Ph.D |
| Abstract: | In 2018, pursuant to Senate Bill (SB) 743 (2013), the Governor’s Office of Planning and Research (OPR) and the California NaturalResources Agency promulgated regulations and technical guidance that eliminated automobile level of service (LOS) as a transportation impact metric for land development projects under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA), and replaced it with Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT). The authors investigated how local governments have been implementing the LOS-to-VMT shift for land development projects, and how that differs from past practice. They also explored whether local governments monitor the actual VMT impacts from completed land use developments and what methods are available to do so. Their findings indicate that all responding jurisdictions acknowledged the mandatory LOS-to-VMT shift, but were in varying stages ofimplementing the shift. For those jurisdictions that had adopted VMT impact significance thresholds, most adhered closely to OPR’s recommendations. They also mostly tried to use apples-to-apples methods of calculating baseline VMT levels (for setting thresholds) and estimating project-level VMT, often relying on travel demand model outputs for both. However, most jurisdictions gave short shrift to VMT monitoring. Another important aspect of SB 743 implementation is how LOS will continue to be used outside of CEQA. The authors found that jurisdictions uniformly continue to employ LOS outside of CEQA. However, those LOS analyses are not necessarily as comprehensive and expensive as they would have been for CEQA purposes. The authors found a consensus amongst their interviewees that swapping LOS for VMT could streamline development in urban areas. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Law, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vehicle miles traveled, VMT estimation, VMT mitigation, VMT monitoring, level of service, CEQA, environmental review |
| Date: | 2023–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt01f8m0xn&r=inv |
| By: | Ablam Estel Apeti; Olivier Basdevant; Ms. Veronique Salins |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the performance of fiscal rules in resource-rich countries (RRC). Using panel data for 57 commodity exporting countries from 1976 to 2021, we find that fiscal rules: (i) reduce the procyclicality of real public expenditures with terms of trade in oil exporting countries, and (ii) improve non-resource primary balances in all RRC, especially during terms of trade upturns. The rules’ design matters. Addressing the procyclicality of public expenditures with terms-of-trade can be achieved with expenditure rules, and, for oil-exporters, revenue rules (althoug limited data on the latter calls for taking the results cautiously). To improve non-resource fiscal balances, debt rules and fiscal balance rules are shown to have a positive impact, especially in oil exporting countries. We further investigate the effect of fiscal rules and other features of the fiscal framework through case studies (for Botswana, Mongolia, and Timor-Leste). These cases highlight that even when fiscal rules are not fully complied with, they lead to some degree of fiscal discipline. The case studies also highlight the importance of the quality of fiscal frameworks: frequent revisions, lack of compliance or low stringency of the rules can significantly hamper their effectiveness. |
| Keywords: | expenditure rule; forecasting commodity price; oil exporter; revenue rule; debt rule; design matter; Fiscal rules; Fiscal stance; Terms of trade; Oil exports; Global |
| Date: | 2023–04–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/088&r=inv |
| By: | Gunnar Bårdsen (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology and Department of Economics, University of Oslo); Ragnar Nymoen (Department of Economics, University of Oslo) |
| Abstract: | A framework for forecasting new COViD-19 cases jointly with hospital admissions and hospital beds with COVID-19 cases is presented. This project, dubbed CovidMod, produced 21-days ahead forecasts each working day from March 2021 to April 2022, and forecast errors that were used to assess forecast accuracy. A comparison with the forecasts of the Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NIPH), with dates of origin in the same period, favours the CovidMod forecasts in terms of lower RMSFEs (Root Mean Squared Forecast Errors), both for new cases and for hospital beds. Another comparison, with the short term forecasts (7 day horizon) produced by a forecasting project at the University of Oxford, shows only little difference in terms of the RMSFEs of new cases. Next, we present a further development of the model which allows the effects of policy responses to a central model parameter to be forecasted by an estimated smooth-transition function. The forecasting performance of the resulting non-linear model is demonstrated, and it is suggested as a possible way forward in the development of relevant forecasting tools in general and for pandemics in particular. |
| JEL: | C32 C53 C54 |
| Date: | 2023–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nst:samfok:19623&r=inv |
| By: | Colin-Romero, Alexis David; Venegas-Martínez, Francisco |
| Abstract: | La presente investigación evalúa el impacto que tuvo la pandemia de COVID-19 en 2019-2020 en el mercado laboral de México, Estados Unidos y Canadá. Se consideran los tres sectores económicos (primario, secundario y terciario), y a su vez cada sector económico se divide en 3 grupos, Sexo, Edad y Nivel de Instrucción. Se propone un modelo de datos panel que considera 24 periodos que van del primer trimestre del 2013 al cuarto trimestre del 2018, además de los trimestres de 2019 y 2020. Los resultados empíricos encontrados sugieren que el menor nivel de desempleo para los tres países se dio en el cuarto trimestre de 2019 y el mayor nivel se dio en el segundo trimestre de 2020. Asimismo, el mayor nivel de desempleo durante el periodo de estudio (T1-2013 a T4-2020) se dio en Estados Unidos y el menor nivel se dio en Canadá. Por otro lado, previo a la pandemia de COVID-19, los sectores de la población con mayor nivel de desempleo en el sector primario fueron las mujeres, las personas con edad de 20 a 39 años y las personas con un nivel de educación básica; en el sector secundario fueron las personas con un nivel de educación menor a la básica; y en el sector terciario fueron los hombres, las personas con edad de 15 a 19 años y de 60 años y más, y las personas con un nivel de educación menor a la básica y de educación superior. De manera general, previo a la pandemia el sector con menor población desempleada fue el secundario y el de mayor fue el terciario. Asimismo, durante la pandemia de COVID-19, en el sector primario no se establece un grupo especifico que haya sido mayormente afectado en cuestión de desempleo; en el secundario los grupos con mayor nivel de desempleo fueron las personas con un nivel de educación menor a la básica, básica y media; y en el terciario las personas con mayor nivel de desempleo fueron los hombres, las personas con edad de 20 a 39 años y de 50 a 59 años, y las personas con un nivel de educación menor a la básica, básica y media. De manera general en Norte América, durante la pandemia de COVID-19, el sector con menor población desempleada fue el primario y el de mayor población desempleada fue el terciario. / This research assesses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019-2020 on the labor market in Mexico, the United States, and Canada. We consider the three economic sectors (primary, secondary and tertiary), and in turn each economic sector is divided into 3 groups, Gender, Age and Education Level. A panel data model is proposed that considers 24 periods ranging from the first quarter of 2013 to the fourth quarter of 2018, in addition to the quarters of 2019 and 2020. The empirical results found suggest that, for the three countries, the lowest level of unemployment occurred in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the highest level occurred in the second quarter of 2020. Likewise, the highest level of unemployment during the study period (Q1-2013 to Q4-2020) occurred in the United States and the lowest level occurred in Canada. On the other hand, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the sectors of the population with the highest level of unemployment in the primary sector were women, people between the ages of 20 and 39, and people with a basic educational level; in the secondary sector there were people with a level of education below basic; and in the tertiary sector they were men, people aged 15 to 19 and 60 years and over, and people with less than basic and higher education. In general, before the pandemic, the sector with the lowest unemployed population was the secondary and the sector with the largest level was the tertiary. Likewise, during the COVID-19 pandemic, in the primary sector there is no specific group that has been more affected in terms of unemployment; in secondary, the groups with the highest level of unemployment were people with a level of education below basic, basic and secondary; and in the tertiary, the people with the highest level of unemployment were men, people from 20 to 39 years old and from 50 to 59 years old, and people with an educational level below basic, basic and medium. In general, in North America, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the sector with the lowest unemployed population was the primary sector and the sector with the highest unemployed population was the tertiary sector. |
| Keywords: | América del Norte, mercado laboral, desempleo, Covid-19, sectores económicos, nivel de educación, edad laboral, género. / North America, labor market, unemployment, Covid-19, economic sectors, educational level, working age, gender. |
| JEL: | J40 J44 |
| Date: | 2023–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:117269&r=inv |