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on International Trade |
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Issue of 2025–12–01
nine papers chosen by Nicola Daniele Coniglio, Università degli Studi di Bari “Aldo Moro” |
| By: | Wassie, Mengistu Alamneh; Kornher, Lukas; Zaki, Chahir |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the trade impacts of trade facilitation (TF) and computes ad valorem tariff equivalents of trade facilitation for Africa. Its contribution is threefold. First, a structural gravity model is used to estimate the impact of TF on trade at a disaggregated level. Second, we validate our results by using different indices that measure TF (time to trade, logistic performance index, and trade-enabling index). Third, in a partial equilibrium framework, it simulates the impact of TF in African countries. Our findings indicate that time to trade has a strong and negative impact on trade, whereas logistics performance and the trade-enabling index positively and significantly impact trade. The analysis suggests that African countries benefit most from TF improvements, particularly those with long delays and weak infrastructural and logistics performance. We find that a one-day custom delay has a 0.9% tariff equivalent. At the product level, the agriculture, food, and some manufacturing sectors, which are the leading African imports, benefit the most from implementing TF. In contrast, mining-related products, which are the major export components of Africa, benefit the least. An ambitious and realistic TF implementation of reducing trade delay by half enhances Africa’s exports and imports by 30.2% and 12.7 % respectively. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344296 |
| By: | Zhuokai Huang; Benny Kleinman; Ernest Liu; Stephen J. Redding |
| Abstract: | How has aggregate income and welfare in the United States been affected by globalization and rapid productivity growth in emerging economies? We use the class of constant elasticity trade models to provide quantitative evidence on these questions. We find that reductions in worldwide trade frictions over the period from1960-2020 reduced the share of the United States in global GDP but raised its aggregate welfare. Similarly, productivity growth in Japan and China led to a decline in the relative income of the United States, but brought aggregate welfare gains from the resulting expansion in global production possibilities. Trade integration and foreign productivity growth have relatively modest effects on domestic income and welfare compared to domestic productivity growth. |
| Keywords: | competitiveness, convergence, globalization, globalisation, welfare gains from trade |
| Date: | 2025–11–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2136 |
| By: | Baiker, Laura; Borchert, Ingo; Echandi, Roberto; Fernandes, Ana Margarida; Hans, Ishrat; Magdeleine, Joscelyn; Marchetti, Juan A.; Rubio, Ester |
| Abstract: | The economic environment for services trade has changed dramatically over the past 15 years, driven by rapid technological progress that has expanded the possibilities for exchanging services. How has trade policy responded to these changes? How do policy stances in a wide range of service sectors compare across economies? With its unprecedented global coverage, the Services Trade Policy Database and the associated Services Trade Restrictions Index, developed jointly by the World Bank and the World Trade Organization, help address these questions. This paper makes three principal contributions. First, it offers an in-depth discussion of the current state of services trade policies and their differences across 134 economies and 34 services subsectors. Second, the paper reveals how recent (2016-22) changes in policy stances have seen progressive liberalization by lower-income economies but stabilization or even slight policy reversals in high-income economies. This dynamic differs fundamentally from the trend that unfolded after the Great Recession over 2008-16. Third, the paper shows the implications of policy changes over the past six years on services trade costs, and it showcases how the Services Trade Policy Database's regulatory information can inform trade negotiations, regulatory analysis, and policy making. Alongside these contributions, the paper documents updates to the Services Trade Policy Database's economy and sector coverage and explains the latest methodological improvements made to the World Bank- World Trade Organization Services Trade Restrictions Index. |
| Keywords: | services trade policy, investment, STRI, trade restrictions, quantification |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F23 L80 O24 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wtowps:331897 |
| By: | Kornher, Lukas; Sakyi, Daniel; Tannor, Linus Linnaeus |
| Abstract: | Agricultural exports are especially important because of their great potential for poverty reduction among smallholder farmers. However, many African countries, such as Ghana, fail to realize their full export potential due to institutional and technical constraints. This paper examines the importance of port efficiency and service quality in complying with food trade standards in Ghana. We provide a stylized theoretical model in which exporting firms are willing to pay for improved port service quality as long as the marginal revenue derived from a reduced likelihood of (border) rejection exceeds the marginal costs for improved service quality. We test the model's predictions using primary data from 120 agri-food exporters in Ghana. Our results show that about two-thirds of exporting firms have a positive willingness-to-pay for a reduction in the handling time at the port and the risk of spoilage due to inadequate handling. These findings emphasize the importance of trade facilitation measures in improving port efficiency and service quality to accelerate agricultural exports. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2024–08–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344297 |
| By: | Mr. Tamon Asonuma; Mr. Marcos Chamon; Yasumasa Morito; Akira Sasahara |
| Abstract: | Sovereign debt restructurings can have large impacts on trade, with a significant compression of imports and a more ambiguous effect on exports. We show that the magnitude of that impact depends on whether restructurings preempt a default or take place after payments have been missed, with the latter associated with longer and deeper crises. Import compression is significantly higher following post-default restructurings, which also tend to be associated with higher exports relative to preemptive restructurings. This is consistent with the need for a larger external adjustment following a default. We also show how the effect varies across types of goods, and a larger impact when initial aggregate domestic demand in the debtor’s economy is high. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign Debt; Sovereign Default; Sovereign Debt Restructuring; Trade; Export; Imports; Domestic Aggregate Demand |
| Date: | 2025–11–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/240 |
| By: | Koller, Julian; Stefanova, Stefani |
| Abstract: | We leverage a novel spatial IV approach to develop a reduced-form estimator that maps local trade shocks into aggregate outcomes, accounting for inter-regional spillovers. For the China shock in the U.S., we find strong evidence for employment spillovers at the local level, which appear to propagate through input-output linkages rather than labor mobility. They shift the shock’s employment ramifications away from the Pacific and North Atlantic towards the South Atlantic region. For aggregate employment, our model rationalizes the 30% difference between Autor et al. (2013) and the structural follow-up literature but implies that it is insignificant from a statistical standpoint. |
| Keywords: | Trade Flows, Local Labor Markets, Import Competition |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F16 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126772 |
| By: | Wenli Cheng (Department of Economics Monash University) |
| Abstract: | This paper extends the classical Ricardian model from a barter system to a monetary framework which emphasizes the pivotal role of the banking system in facilitating production and exchange. It studies international trade under three different monetary systems: (1) the Euro system, where a single currency facilitates both domestic and international trade; (2) the Bancor system, which relies on a supranational currency for trade between nations; and (3) the Dollar system, where one country’s national currency serves as the international media of exchange. The model preserves the Ricardian insight that specialization based on comparative advantage enhances global wealth, and identifies distinct features arising from different monetary systems. It shows that neither the Euro nor the Bancor system inherently generates trade imbalances. In contrast, the Dollar system imposes an asymmetric demand for the national currency used to conduct global trade. Since the currency demanded must be earned through net exports, trade imbalances are an intrinsic feature of the Dollar system. |
| Keywords: | : Ricardian model, the Euro sy |
| JEL: | F10 F33 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2025-19 |
| By: | Becker, Sascha O (University of Warwick and Monash University); Egger, Hartmut (University of Bayreuth); Koch, Michael (Aarhus University); Muendler, Marc-Andreas (University of California San Diego) |
| Abstract: | This paper links globalization, worker efficiency, and wage inequality within plants to internal labor market organization. Using German plant–worker data and information on the task content of occupations, we document that larger plants (i) use more occupations, (ii) assign fewer tasks per occupation, and (iii) exhibit greater wage dispersion. We develop a model where plants endogenously bundle tasks into occupations, improving worker-task matching at the cost of higher fixed span-of-control costs. Embedding this into a Melitz framework, we show that trade increases worker efficiency and wage inequality in exporting plants, whereas non-exporting plants experience the opposite effects. Structural estimation and simulations confirm the model’s predictions and point to non-monotonic economy-wide effects. |
| Keywords: | Tasks; specialization; international trade; firm-internal labor allocation JEL Classification: F12, F16, J3, L23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:783 |
| By: | Jaimovich, Esteban (University of Turin (ESOMAS Department) and Collegio Carlo Alberto); Madzharova, Boryana (Central Bank of Ireland, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, and CESIfo); Merella, Vincenzo (University of Cagliari and Prague University of Economics and Busines) |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates firms’ rollout strategies for quality-differentiated products across geographically dispersed markets. Using a theoretical framework that integrates nonhomothetic preferences, we show that premium goods are more likely to enter wealthier markets first, allowing firms to capture higher markups. We find that the main factors influencing the selection of follow-up markets differ by product quality: for premium goods, income levels are the primary determinant of expansion paths, whereas geographic proximity is the main driver for lower-quality products. Using micro-level data from the refrigeration industry, we confirm a significant positive association between market-entry order and income for higherquality products. Furthermore, we observe that follow-up markets tend to be geographically more dispersed for premium goods, reflecting a shift away from proximity-based expansion strategies. |
| Keywords: | market entry, gravity; nonhomothetic preferences, quality differentiated products. |
| JEL: | F1 F14 F23 L68 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:wpaper:18/rt/25 |