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on International Trade |
| By: | Ghose, Devaki; Montfaucon, Angella Faith Lapukeni |
| Abstract: | Using detailed monthly firm-level trade data from Indonesia from February 2019 to June 2021, this paper shows that firm-level exports were overall more resilient than imports during Covid-19. Firms that participated in global value chains were more resilient to the Covid-19 shock beyond the immediate short-run compared to firms that did not. However, among global value chain firms, those that faced certain types of non-tariff measures on their import products, notably port of entry restrictions, on average faced larger reductions in export quantities and number of transactions compared to firms that did not face such restrictions, consistent with the evidence of major port congestion during Covid-19. Therefore, although international connectedness could be a source of vulnerability to global shocks in the immediate short run, policies that enable firms to be more globally engaged through global value chains could enhance resilience. Relatedly, tackling measures such as port of entry restrictions can ensure fast and efficient port and customs procedures, especially during periods of high port congestion, as global value chain trade requires goods to cross borders many times. |
| Date: | 2023–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10514 |
| By: | Larch, Mario; Yotov, Yoto Valentinov |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the relationships between deep trade liberalization and foreign direct investment. To this end, it focuses on the effects of deep trade agreements. The analysis relies on a structural framework that simultaneously enables (i) estimating the direc t impact of deep trade agreements on foreign direct investment, (ii) translating the partial deep trade agreement estimates into general equilibrium effects on foreign direct investment; and (iii) obtaining partial deep trade agreement effects on trade and quantifying the impact of deep trade agreements on foreign direct investment through trade. The paper obtains sizeable, positive, and statistically significant estimates of the effects of deep trade agreements on both trade and foreign direct investment. A counterfactual analysis suggests that together with direct and indirect channels deep trade agreements have contributed. |
| Date: | 2023–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10338 |
| By: | Vazquez, Emmanuel Jose; Winkler, Deborah Elisabeth |
| Abstract: | This study provides new evidence on the local labor market impacts of trade, differentiating between the employment, income, migration, and informality channels. It uses a unique dataset matching information on exports and imports from customs with indicators on employment and labor incomes for around 2, 000 Mexican municipalities over 2004–14. The analysis uses an instrumental variable approach that combines the initial structure of trade across municipalities with global trends in trade between low- and middle-income countries (excluding Mexico) and the United States by sector. First, the study finds that expanding exports per worker in Mexico’s municipalities increased labor force participation but not employment rates. Exports also raised total labor incomes but not average labor incomes, implying a growing labor supply. The results also find that export and import expansion increased immigration and lowered the rate of informal workers. Second, the analysis examines differences by geography and sectors. It finds that trade affected labor markets in the North through the income and migration channels and in the South through the employment and informality channels. Exports benefitted the total incomes of workers in both the manufacturing and service sectors but reduced informality only in manufacturing. Third, the study suggests a more favorable role of intermediate relative to final imports, driven by manufacturing imports. It also finds evidence for positive spillovers from global value chain participation through the employment and income channels. Finally, it examines how local policy mediates the labor market effects from trade, focusing on connectivity, labor market flexibility, and education spending. |
| Date: | 2023–02–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10332 |
| By: | Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou; Reed, Tristan |
| Abstract: | Data on global trade as well as capital and labor flows indicate a slowdown, but not reversal, of globalization post the 2008–09 financial crisis. Yet profound changes in the policy environment and public sentiment in the largest economies over the past five years suggest the beginning of a new era. Increasing anxiety about the labor market effects of import competition from low-wage countries, especially China, laid the groundwork, but was not the catalyst for the reversal in attitudes towards globalization. Similarly, the COVID pandemic provided novel arguments against free trade based on global supply chain resilience, but neither the pandemic nor short run policy response had enduring effects on trade flows. Global trade was remarkably resilient during the pandemic and that supply shortages would likely have been more severe in the absence of international trade. After a temporary decline in 2020, global trade in goods and services increased sharply in 2021. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raised new concerns about national security and the exposure of supply chains to geopolitical risk. This was followed by demands to diversify away from “non-friendly” countries and to the employment of trade policy, export restrictions in particular, to halt China’s technological development. The future of globalization is highly uncertain at this point, but these new policies will likely slow global growth, innovation, and poverty reduction even if they benefit certain industries in certain countries. Regarding resilience, the main goal of recent trade policy changes, measures of trade volatility or concentration can be helpful, but resilience will be elusive as long as we lack benchmarks against which policy performance can be measured. |
| Date: | 2023–04–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10392 |
| By: | Jeronimo Carballo; Richard K. Mansfield |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the composition of firm exposure and competition among imperfectly substitutable workers mediate the earnings, welfare, and unemployment incidence of changes in the international trade environment. We merge LEHD job match records with firm-level import and export records from the LFTTD and use them to estimate a large-scale assignment model of the entire U.S. labor market. The model flexibly accommodates frictions from switching regions, industries, trade engagement status, and even particular employers. We construct firm-level estimates of the employment impact of China's WTO entry using exogenous tariff gap variation via four different channels, import and export competition and import and export access, and combine them with the model to evaluate the shock's worker-level incidence. Our results show that the firm composition of shock exposure does matter for medium-run worker-level earnings incidence, with workers at the highly exposed multinational manufacturing firms experiencing the largest shock-induced earnings losses. However, labor market competition causes the shock's impact to spread to seemingly unaffected sectors and trickle down the skill ladder, so that entry-level non-traded service workers and initially unemployed job-seekers account for a large share of earnings losses and particularly unemployment increases. |
| JEL: | F15 F16 F6 J23 J6 J62 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33481 |
| By: | Borin Keo; Bin Li; Waqas Younis |
| Abstract: | High trade costs pose substantial barriers to the process of trade liberalization. This study aims to measure trade costs and explore the driving forces behind the growth of bilateral trade between Cambodia and its top 30 trading partners from 1993 to 2019. Using a micro-founded measure of trade costs derived from the gravity model, we find that Cambodia's average trade costs decreased by 35.43 percent between 1993 and 2019. Fluctuations in average trade costs persisted until 2014, despite Cambodia's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2004. Since then, these costs have declined more rapidly. Cambodia's bilateral trade costs are lower with its major trading partners in Southeast Asia and East Asia than with those in South Asia, Oceania, Europe, and North America. Cambodia's average trade costs with developing and emerging economies are lower than those with developed economies. Between 2014 and 2019, Cambodia experienced a notable decline in average trade costs with trading partners along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) corridors by 34.78 percent, twice as fast as with non-BRI trading partners. Regarding the decomposition of trade growth, we find that the expansion of Cambodian trade over the period from 1993 to 2019 was driven by three factors: the rise in income (59.65 percent), the decline in trade costs (56.69 percent), and the decline in multilateral resistance (minus 16.34 percent). The findings of this study have significant implications for a better understanding of Cambodia's development process toward global trade integration over the past two decades. Our results suggest that Cambodia can optimize its trade expansion potential by focusing on its relations with trading partners exhibiting high economic growth potential and those showing substantial reductions in trade costs. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2502.18916 |
| By: | Antonio, Ronald Jeremy; Valera, Harold Glenn; Durant-Morat, Alvaro; Hoang, Hoa; Diagne, Mandiaye; Malakhail, Fazal; Pede, Valerien |
| Abstract: | This Handbook aims to provide a global coverage of policy instruments used by governments to realize objectives related to rice production and supply, rice markets, and trade. The handbook covers major rice markets in Asia, Africa, the Americas, Europe, and the Middle East. There are similarities in policies in general and within regions. Given the importance of food security to all countries, policies are designed to increase and supplement farm income to sustain domestic production while ensuring access to and availability of affordable rice for consumers. Rice trade is still regulated mainly through import tariffs to protect domestic producers. Import tariffs are implemented in several countries in Southeast and South Asia and Africa, and in all countries reviewed in East Asia and the Americas. Based on the summary tables below, we can also see that two-tier tariffs are most common in East Asia, with them being implemented in all four of the countries reviewed. Several Asian countries procure rice through state-owned enterprises (SOEs). These countries provide significant control to SOEs to ensure stable domestic prices and control of foreign trade. From the recent developments brought about by the export restrictions imposed by India, state trading as well as government-to-government procurement have both been used to ensure that domestic supplies remain adequate. Asian importers such as Indonesia and Bangladesh have set up government-to-government trade agreements with major Asian exporters such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Myanmar to ensure domestic food availability. India has also secured several exemptions to its trade restrictions for some of its trade partners, most of which are for African countries to provide them with access to lower-priced rice while allowing India to remain as the top rice exporter in the world. Subsidies also remain prevalent, especially in South and Southeast Asia, as well as in some African countries. These subsidies are aimed toward raising farmer income and providing aid for farmers to produce efficiently and continuously. Recent subsidies have been implemented to help farmers navigate increases in fertilizer prices. Aside from providing incentive and aid to farmers, ensuring consistent production also leads to higher domestic supply, less reliance on imports, and lower consumer prices. † Published by the International Rice Research Institute. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14799014. To protect domestic farmers, several countries in Asia and the Americas also implement minimum support prices. Similar to subsidies, minimum support prices are used to encourage domestic production for both rice-importing and -exporting countries. Major exporting countries such as Thailand and India implement them to ensure their place in the world market while importers such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Laos, Nepal, and Sri Lanka implement them to secure food availability in their domestic markets. Lastly, measures such as temporary export bans and price controls are implemented in several African countries. Such measures are usually implemented to control volatile domestic prices and ensure domestic food access. |
| Keywords: | Rice policies, global rice economy, export and import restrictions, subsidies |
| JEL: | F13 Q11 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123642 |
| By: | Devarajan, Shantayanan; Go, Delfin Sia; Robinson, Sherman |
| Abstract: | Armington’s insight that imports and domestically produced goods were imperfect substitutes has unleashed extensive estimates of the associated trade elasticity, primarily for developed countries. This notion of product differentiation, which extends symmetrically to exports and domestic goods, has underpinned trade-focused, computable general equilibrium models of developing countries, including the aggregate, compact version, the 1–2–3 model. Noting that estimates of trade elasticities for developing countries are few, this paper remedies the situation. Using the vector error correction model as the primary method and controlling for global trends and other factors, the analysis derives the long-run elasticity estimates for 191 countries, ranging from China (population of 1.4 billion) to Tuvalu (11, 200), including 45 of 48 Sub-Saharan African countries and understudied countries such as Benin, the Republic of Congo, Niger, Fiji, Haiti, Kiribati, and Tajikistan. Import and export elasticities of high-income countries average about 1.4, reflecting the greater diversity of their economies; developing countries’ elasticities average around 0.7 for imports and 0.6 for exports. Elasticities generally rise with per capita income. That the elasticity is greater than one for developed and less for developing countries implies asymmetric responses to shocks, which conforms to intuition and corroborates the analytical results from the 1–2–3 model. |
| Date: | 2023–06–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10490 |
| By: | Edjigu, Habtamu Tesfaye; Hakobyan, Shushanik; Kassa, Woubet |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of the abrupt suspension of African Growth and Opportunity Act benefits on exports from eligible African countries. The study uses a triple difference-in-differences estimation that controls for both country- and product-level export changes. The results suggest that the suspension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act has had a considerable negative impact on the level of exports to the United States. The impact appears to be bigger for countries with a high African Growth and Opportunity Act utilization rate. The suspension is associated with a 39 percent decline in exports to the United States. At the product level, the suspension hurt apparel and textile exports, leading to a decline of their exports by about 88 percent. Understanding the impact of withdrawing access to a nonreciprocal trade agreement is particularly important now, as the European Union began negotiating Economic Partnership Agreements with African countries, as a sign of a shift to reciprocity; the United States is considering a similar path of negotiating free trade agreements with individual African countries. These developments underscore the need to prepare for a post–African G rowth and Opportunity Act period with more reciprocity, as trade uncertainty is becoming rampant. |
| Date: | 2023–04–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10424 |
| By: | Tobochnik, Howard Jacob; Maskus, Keith E.; Ridley, William Clifton |
| Abstract: | Intellectual property rights have become a central emphasis in the negotiation of “deep” preferential trade agreements containing provisions on regulatory environments besides trade policy. These provisions typically require member countries to implement heightened standards on various aspects of intellectual property rights, such as coverage and enforcement, that go beyond the baseline requirements of international intellectual property rights agreements such as the World Tarde Organization’s Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights agreement. This study implements a structural gravity framework to investigate empirically the impacts of these agreements on bilateral international patenting, to quantify the effects of countries’ membership in intellectual property–related preferential trade agreements on within-agreement patent applications at national patent offices, as well as extra–preferential trade agreement patenting at member country destinations originating from non-member countries. The study further explores the heterogeneity of these effects as originating from the attributes of the agreements, such as whether the major partner in the agreement is the United States or the European Union/European Free Trade Association, and the presence of key “Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights–Plus” provisions in the agreement texts. The findings suggest that intellectual property rights standards in preferential trade agreements tend to generate positive impacts on international patenting, and that the specific features of the agreements give rise to significant disparities in these impacts. Most intriguing is that those agreements involving multiple Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights–Plus norms significantly increase patenting within members compared to patenting from outside those areas, while other types of intellectual property rights encourage more patenting from non-members. |
| Date: | 2023–02–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10320 |
| By: | Ohnsorge, Franziska Lieselotte; Quaglietti, Lucia |
| Abstract: | International trade has been an important engine of output and productivity growth historically. But since the global financial crisis, world trade growth has slowed, reflecting cyclical and structural forces. The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have further disrupted commodity markets, global supply chains and the trade that accompanies them. A removal of impediments that raise trade costs could reinvigorate world trade. Trade costs, on average, roughly double the cost of internationally traded goods relative to domestically sold goods. Tariffs amount to only one-twentieth of average trade costs; the bulk are incurred in shipping and logistics, and trade procedures and processes at and behind the border. Despite a decline since 1995, trade costs remain about one-half higher in EMDEs than in advanced economies; about two-fifths of this gap appears to be due to higher shipping and logistics costs and a further two-fifths due to trade policy. A comprehensive reform package to lower trade costs could yield large dividends. It is estimated that among the worst-performing EMDEs, a hypothetical reform package to improve logistics and maritime connectivity to the standards of the best-performing EMDEs would halve trade costs. |
| Date: | 2023–03–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10356 |
| By: | Shamsi, Javad |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how immigration reshapes political landscapes, centring on the influx of immigrants from the EU's 2004 enlargement and its implications for the UK. I use a new variation in exposure to immigration based on migrant flows across various industries coupled with the employment structure in each region. Addressing potential concerns of endogeneity, I introduce a novel shift-share IV design, harnessing the industry-specific flow of migrants to regions outside the UK within the pre-2004 EU. The findings reveal a significant impact on support for the right-wing UK Independence Party and the Brexit Leave campaign, accompanied by a decline in Labour Party support. Moreover, the research indicates that voters' social attitudes toward immigration become more adverse in response to immigration. Political parties, particularly Conservatives, are also observed to increasingly engage with the topic of immigration in constituencies most affected by immigration, typically marked by negative rhetoric. The paper reconciles these findings by highlighting how immigration shocks entrench immigration cleavage, realigning political conflict from traditional economic lines to new cultural dimensions. |
| Keywords: | immigration; political realignment; industry-specific migration; EU enlargement |
| JEL: | J15 D72 F22 J61 P16 |
| Date: | 2024–03–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126828 |
| By: | Jesús Fernández-Villaverde; Yiliang Li; Le Xu; Francesco Zanetti |
| Abstract: | We examine the rise of dark shipping – oil tankers disabling AIS transceivers to evade detection – amid Western sanctions on Iran, Syria, North Korea, Venezuela, and Russia. Using a machine learning-based ship clustering model, we track dark-shipped crude oil trade flows worldwide and detect unauthorized ship-to-ship transfers. From 2017 to 2023, dark ships transported an estimated 7.8 million metric tons of crude oil monthly – 43% of global seaborne crude exports – with China absorbing 15%. These sanctioned flows offset recorded declines in global oil exports but create distinct economic shifts. The U.S., a net oil exporter, faces lower oil prices but benefits from cheaper Chinese imports, driving deflationary growth. The EU, a net importer, contends with rising energy costs yet gains from Chinese demand, fueling inflationary expansion. China, leveraging discounted oil, boosts industrial output, propagating global economic shocks. Our findings expose dark shipping’s central role in reshaping oil markets and macroeconomic dynamics. |
| JEL: | C32 C38 E32 Q43 R40 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33486 |
| By: | Malin Niemi; Nicklas Nordfors; Anna Tompsett |
| Abstract: | What happens to pollution when developing countries open their borders to trade? Theoretical predictions are ambiguous, and empirical evidence remains limited. We study the effects of the 1991 Indian trade liberalization reform on water pollution. The reform abruptly and unexpectedly lowered import tariffs, increasing exposure to trade. Larger tariff reductions are associated with relative increases in water pollution. The estimated effects imply a 0.12 standard deviation increase in water pollution for the median district exposed to the tariff reform. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2502.09289 |
| By: | Assem Mohammed G Hassan Ahmed, Hoda |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of civil conflicts on international trade. First, it quantifies how much civil conflicts suppress trade and explores the underlying mechanisms within a structural gravity model. Trade openness can lower the risk of civil conflicts because expected gains from international trade could discourage both governments and rebels from igniting conflicts (deterrence mechanism). Alternatively, international trade could act as a substitute for internal trade, lowering the opportunity cost of civil conflicts (insurance mechanism). This paper empirically investigates both mechanisms. Second, the paper investigates the spillovers of civil conflicts on trade for neighboring countries uninvolved in the conflict. Third, it examines if the impact of civil conflicts is contemporaneous or persistent through time. The paper uses data on violent civil conflicts and international and intra-national trade data from 142 countries to estimate a structural gravity trade model for 1989-2006. The results show that civil conflicts in a country can reduce its trade with other countries by over 40 percent. Spillovers of neighboring civil conflicts are also highly detrimental. Finally, the impact of civil conflicts is highly persistent through time and increases with the duration of the conflict. |
| Date: | 2023–05–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10465 |
| By: | Ulate, Mauricio; Vasquez, Jose P.; Zarate Vasquez, Roman David |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the labor market consequences of recent global supply chain disruptions induced by COVID-19. Specifically, it considers a temporary increase in international trade costs similar to the one observed during the pandemic and analyzes its effects on labor market outcomes using a quantitative trade model with downward nominal wage rigidities. Even omitting any health-related impacts of the pandemic, the increase in trade costs leads to a temporary but prolonged decline in U.S. labor force participation. However, there is a temporary increase in manufacturing employment as the United States is a net importer of manufactured goods, which become costlier to obtain from abroad. By contrast, service and agricultural employment experience temporary declines. Nominal frictions lead to temporary unemployment when the shock dissipates, but this depends on the degree of monetary accommodation. Overall, the shock results in a 0.14 percent welfare loss for the United States. The impact on labor force participation and welfare across countries varies depending on the initial degree of openness and sectoral deficits. |
| Date: | 2023–05–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10434 |
| By: | Bastien Alvarez; Gianluca Orefice; Farid Toubal |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how trade liberalization-induced labor demand shocks affect wages and non-wage working conditions. Using exogenous trade shocks from EU enlargement and worker-level data, we find that export liberalization increases temporary contracts and atypical work schedules, particularly for production workers. However, it has no significant effect on wages, which may reflect firms’ ability to expand employment without raising pay due to labor supply elasticity and unemployment. Import liberalization weakly affects working conditions but, consistent with previous studies, lowers wages as firms face stronger competition and reduced labor demand. |
| Keywords: | temporary contracts, working conditions, wages, employment, Eastern European enlargement, trade liberalization |
| JEL: | F15 F16 J30 J51 J81 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11675 |
| By: | Baiker, Laura; Borchert, Ingo; Magdeleine, Joscelyn; Marchetti, Juan |
| Abstract: | In 2023, the global coverage of the Services Trade Policy Database, jointly developed by the World Bank and the World Trade Organization, has been significantly expanded to cover more economies, focusing in particular on the African continent. This enhancement is accompanied by expanded sector coverage including, inter alia, tourism and health care services, which are of particular interest to many African economies. The collection, processing, and vetting of regulatory data took place during 2020–22 and was supported by the German Development Agency GIZ, the European Commission and the International Trade Centre, respectively, as part of their support for the African Continental Free Trade Area negotiations. This paper presents evidence on the 2020/21 state of applied services trade policy across 54 African economies. It offers detailed comparisons of policy stances across economies, broad sectors, subsectors, and modes of supply. Services trade policies in Africa are generally relatively restrictive, albeit with substantial dispersion across economies within each sector. Professional services are the most restricted, while computer and distribution services appear as the least restricted sectors. Larger economies in terms of market size tend to be more restrictive toward services trade, whereas economies with better institutions, including higher regulatory quality, tend to be more open. At the same time, relatively high levels of restrictiveness in transportation among the more industrialized economies may curtail connectivity and thus hamper African economies’ international integration prospects. Landlocked economies also seem to miss an opportunity to alleviate pre-existing geographical disadvantages with more open transportation service policies. Overall, the wealth of quantitative information on policy restrictiveness presented in this paper, along with the underpinning regulatory information, provides a factual basis for the advancement of policy reform, regional integration, and cooperation in service sectors. |
| Date: | 2023–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10537 |
| By: | Lewandowski, Piotr; Madoń, Karol; Winkler, Deborah Elisabeth |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the relationship between participation in global value chains, worker routine task intensity, and within-country wage inequality. It uses unique survey data from 47 countries across the development spectrum to calculate worker-level, country-specific routine task intensity and combines them with sectoral measures of backward and forward global value chains participation. Higher global value chains participation is associated with more routine-intensive work, specifically among offshorable occupations, especially in countries at lower development levels. The results by broad sectors contrast sharply: higher global value chains participation is linked to a higher routine task intensity in offshorable occupations in the industry but a lower routine task intensity in non-offshorable occupations in business services. Higher worker-level routine task intensity is strongly associated with lower wages, so global value chains participation indirectly widens the within-country wage inequality through this routine task intensity channel. At the same time, global value chains participation directly contributes to reduced wage inequality, except for the richest countries. Ov erall, this analysis finds that global value chains participation reduces wage inequality in most low- and middle-income countries that receive offshored jobs but widens wage inequality in high-income countries that offshore jobs. |
| Date: | 2023–05–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10433 |
| By: | Colantone, Italo; Ottaviano, Gianmarco Ireo Paolo; Stanig, Piero |
| Abstract: | We argue that our understanding of industrial policy in the presence of 'strategic' industries that exert positive externalities on the national economy may benefit from an extension of quantitative general equilibrium trade models making the extent and pattern of trade-induced re-allocations more salient. To make these features relevant for national welfare, we introduce the notion of the 'social footprint' of globalization as the result of suboptimal trade-induced structural transformation in the presence of externalities. For proof of concept, we use simple workhorse models featuring two countries and two industries (only one of which is 'strategic') to highlight the role of the 'scale elasticity' of the strategic industry and the consequences of the most common assumptions on market structure in quantitative trade analyses. |
| Keywords: | globalization; quantitative trade models; trade liberalization; market structure; externalities; strategic industries |
| JEL: | F11 F12 F17 F15 F00 |
| Date: | 2024–01–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126837 |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | As Trump takes aim at global norms and institutions, the question of what parts of the post-Cold War order can be saved, and for whom, needs urgent attention. Moving away from these positions will require major changes. Trump 2.0 has generated optimism in Africa. South Africa, in particular, was initially optimistic. But later, bilateral relations with South Africa deteriorated as the Trump administration, including his economic advisor, South African-born Elon Musk, openly sided with the white SA establishment, at least for the next four years. Prospects for democratic transitions were also dashed, as Trump did not care about democratizing sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), but rather supported African autocracies, such as in Biya's Cameroon, Gnassingbé's Togo, and the Central African Republic and Ivory Coast. Trump's intention to dismantle USAid threw all its contractors into disarray. Fear, pain and hunger were the terrible consequences of US funding cuts, for example in Kenya and war-torn Sudan. The US was the largest ODA donor in SSA. In fiscal year 2023/2024, the US had donated nearly $3.7 billion. Jihadism in the Sahel, the Horn of Africa and beyond is likely to intensify and spread. The isolationist US Africa policy under Trump could further reduce Western influence. Trump's trade policies, particularly the imposition of tariffs and withdrawal from multilateral agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), have affected developing countries' access to the US market. This is particularly true in SSA, which relies heavily on exports of commodities, textiles and manufactured goods to the US market. The imposition of tariffs on steel, aluminium and other manufactured goods further increased the cost of exports from these countries, leading to reduced competitiveness and a decline in trade volumes. African countries benefiting from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) have seen their benefits diminish, as the Trump administration has de-prioritised AGOA . |
| Keywords: | Trump government;Sub-Sahara Africa; Trade policy; custom policy; nationalism; rare earths; counter-terrorism; South Africa; DR Congo; Namibia; Somalia; |
| JEL: | F13 F51 F53 F6 H21 P16 P52 |
| Date: | 2025–02–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123735 |
| By: | Cirera, Xavier; Comin, Diego Adolfo; Vargas Da Cruz, Marcio Jose; Lee, Kyungmin; Soares Martins Neto, Antonio |
| Abstract: | There is limited evidence on the role of participating in international trade in the diffusion of technologies. This paper analyzes the impact of exporting on firms’ adoption of more sophisticated technologies, using a novel dataset, the Firm-level Adoption of Technology survey, which includes more than 1, 500 firms in Brazil. The survey provides detailed information on the use of more than 300 technologies, combined with data from Brazil’s census of formal workers and export data from the Ministry of Trade. To address critical endogeneity concerns, the analysis applies difference-in-differences with multiple periods to examine the effects of entering export markets on technology adoption. The findings show that exporting has a positive effect on firms’ likelihood of adopting advanced technologies in business functions related to business administration, production planning, supply chain management, and quality control, which are important for managing tasks associated with export activities. |
| Date: | 2023–05–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10454 |
| By: | Abman, Ryan Michael; Lundberg, Clark Christopher; Mclaren, John Edward; Ruta, Michele |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of child labor standards in regional trade agreements on a variety of child labor market outcomes, including employment, education, and household inequality. It develops a stylized general equilibrium model of child labor in an economy open to international trade and considers the impact of regional trade agreements with and without child labor bans. The paper empirically investigates the effects of these clauses in trade agreements in a broad international panel of 101 developing countries, using harmonized survey microdata. Exploiting quasi-experimental methods to obtain plausibly causal estimates, the analysis finds that regional trade agreements without child-labor bans lead to reductions in child employment and increases in school enrollment, particularly for older children aged 14–17 years. Child labor bans in regional trade agreements perversely increase employment of children aged 14–17 years and decrease school enrollment for both young and older children. These effects appear to decrease inter-household income inequality through increased child earnings. The findings are consistent with the theoretical predictions from the model and the literature on child labor bans. |
| Date: | 2023–02–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10331 |
| By: | Gomez Ortiz, Maria Del Mar; Zarate Vasquez, Roman David; Taglioni, Daria |
| Abstract: | In the Western Balkans, trade and transport policy reforms that reduce waiting time at the border by just three hours are equivalent to removing a value-based tariff of 2 percent. Reform gains are maximized when they are coordinated across economies and implemented jointly: cross-border coordination in the implementation of the package of national single window and other trade facilitation reforms would generate 8 percent higher gains than if each economy were to carry out the reforms autonomously. The impacts of trade reforms and improvements in road infrastructure would be further amplified if Western Balkan economies belonged to the European Union, which would result in an additional 6 percent boost to welfare. Moreover, the accession of Western Balkan economies to the European Union would have positive spillover welfare effects for countries such as Croatia, Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary, and negligible effects for other EU members. |
| Date: | 2023–06–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10491 |
| By: | Valentin Mathieu (AgroParisTech, SILVA - SILVA - AgroParisTech - UL - Université de Lorraine - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Introductory lecture on international wood trade for Master students in Forestry Science and Engineering. The objective of this lecture is to diagnose the current state of the international wood trade and to identify the issues at stake through the following objectives: 1. To define what international timber trade is, its conceptual framework and its scope. 2. To identify the main databases on international timber trade and their limitations. 3. To understand the current structure of the international trade in roundwood and its recent dynamics. 4. To identify the current determinants that drive the international timber trade and explore some perspectives. 5. To identify current issues related to the international timber trade through a series of case studies. |
| Abstract: | Cours d'introduction au commerce international du bois destiné aux étudiants de Master en sciences et ingénierie forestières. L'objectif de ce cours est de diagnostiquer l'état actuel du commerce international du bois et d'en identifier les enjeux à travers les objectifs suivants : 1. Définir ce qu'est le commerce international du bois, son cadre conceptuel et sa portée. 2. Identifier les principales bases de données sur le commerce international du bois et leurs limites. 3. Comprendre la structure actuelle du commerce international de bois rond et sa dynamique récente. 4. Identifier les déterminants actuels du commerce international du bois et explorer certaines perspectives. 5. Identifier les problèmes actuels liés au commerce international du bois à travers une série d'études de cas. |
| Keywords: | International trade, Forest economics, Wood products, Forest science |
| Date: | 2024–11–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04917942 |
| By: | Kruse, Hagen; Timmer, Marcel Peter; De Vries, Gaaitzen Johannes; Ye, Xianjia |
| Abstract: | With international production fragmentation, countries specialize in activities along the production chain rather than particular products. This paper therefore analyzes export diversification taking an activity perspective. It measures export activities combining new data on the export income of workers in industries cross classified by occupational classes. Based on the panel data, the paper documents that countries initially specialize along the extensive margin (shifting activities across industries) but later on along the intensive margin (shifting activities across occupational classes). New activity specialization is found to be strongly related to the proximity of this activity to the initial export basket. Yet, countries that defy proximity appear to grow faster. The results show that an activity perspective delivers novel insights into trade development and structural change. |
| Date: | 2023–05–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10463 |
| By: | Bernini, Andrea; Bossavie, Laurent Loic Yves; Garrote Sanchez, Daniel; Makovec, Mattia |
| Abstract: | Conclusive evidence on the relationship between corruption and migration has remained scant in the literature to date. Using data from 2008 to 2018 on bilateral migration flows across European Union and European Free Trade Association countries and four measures of corruption, this paper shows that corruption acts as both a push factor and a pull factor for migration patterns. Based on a gravity model, a one-unit increase in the corruption level in the origin country is associated with a 11 percent increase in out-migration. The same one-unit increase in the destination country is associated with a 10 percent decline in in-migration. |
| Date: | 2023–09–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10566 |
| By: | Ghose, Devaki; Wang, Zhiling |
| Abstract: | Using a policy change in the Netherlands in 2012 that made it easier and less costly for firms to employ high-skilled short-stay non-EU workers and a matched employer-employee data, this paper shows that firms in high-skill industries respond by both employing a higher share of non-EU immigrants and increasing the total amount of offshoring to non-EU countries. With reduced costs of hiring short-stay non-EU workers, small firms hire and fire more non-EU workers in a given year. Many of these workers return to their home countries, establishing direct connections that boost offshoring to firms in the Netherlands. Large firms, on the other hand, absorb some of the workers leaving the small firms. These workers also establish connections between their host and origin countries, boosting offshoring. |
| Date: | 2023–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10371 |
| By: | ’t Sas-Rolfes, Michael; Gooden, Jennifer Lynn |
| Abstract: | 1. Among factors that threaten wild populations of African megafauna, wildlife trade has gained prominence as a global policy issue, with concerted international campaigns aiming to influence the trade of species such as elephants, rhinos, and lions. Trade policy is strongly contested, confounding attempts to develop coherent approaches across jurisdictions and through international mechanisms such as CITES. This undermines conservation efforts. Understanding the drivers of such conflict may help to address this problem. 2. Scholars of political science increasingly recognize the power of ideas as drivers within policy processes. Guided by this literature, we developed an analytical framework and conducted a thematic analysis to examine the ideas driving wildlife trade policy conflict. Our nested case study approach examined debates over trade policy toward African elephants, rhinos, and lions, at two levels: the international policy arena of CITES and within a single country, South Africa. Informed by earlier literature, we tracked the evolution of international trade policy debates over a four-year period (2016–2019) and analysed submissions to a national policy review process in South Africa that took place during 2020. 3. During the study period, state and non-state actors contributed to vigorous trade policy debates within seven key thematic issues across the case study species. Arguments were driven by both cognitive ideas, which specify cause-and-effect relationships, and normative ideas, which are values-based and especially salient elements of anti-trade stances. 4. Fusing these cognitive and normative ideational elements, we identified three distinct over-arching narratives relating to wildlife trade policy. These three narratives align with broader environmental policy and political narratives and elucidate inherent tensions within the CITES arena. They also reveal differing ethical interpretations and perceptions of risk, precaution, and the role of property rights. 5. Policy implications: Wildlife trade policy conflict is driven at least in part by competing ideological visions, which may be entrenched by the CITES Appendix listing system. The structural role of CITES in perpetuating this polarization—and the consequences thereof—warrants further research. |
| Date: | 2023–06–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:bzse5_v1 |
| By: | Ornelas, Emanuel |
| Abstract: | I study how political competition affects the feasibility of free trade agreements (FTAs). I show that the possibility of political turnover creates strategic motivations for the formation of FTAs. Specifically, a government facing a high enough probability of losing power will have an incentive to form a trading bloc to 'tie the hands' of its successor. This incentive mitigates inefficiencies in the incumbent's decision to form FTAs, regardless of its bias toward special interests. An FTA can affect the likelihood of political turnover as well. Accounting for that effect, I show that an incumbent party with a known bias toward special interests could seek an FTA as a commitment device toward less distortionary policies, thereby enhancing its own electoral prospects. Overall, the analysis reveals the importance of considering the time horizon of policymakers when studying their decision to enter in FTAs. |
| Keywords: | regionalism; free trade agreements; political competition; lobbying |
| JEL: | F15 F13 D72 |
| Date: | 2024–10–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126806 |
| By: | Arezki, Rabah; Fernandes, Ana Margarida; Merchán, Federico; Nguyen, Ha; Reed, Tristan |
| Abstract: | Countries with greater commodity export intensity have more concentrated markets for imported goods. Import market concentration is associated with higher domestic prices, suggesting that markups due to greater concentration outweigh any potential cost efficiency. Tariffs, non-tariff measures, and tariff evasion are mechanisms that concentrate import markets. These results suggest a novel channel for the resource curse stemming from the monopolization of imports. |
| Date: | 2023–03–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10339 |
| By: | Keen, Michael; Liu, Li; Pallan, Hayley Marie |
| Abstract: | This paper articulates and, using newly-assembled data, explores how international taxation affects aggregate tangible cross-border investment. Spillovers from statutory tax rates abroad seem: As sizable as effects from the host’s rate; larger than previous consensus values (attributed to a systematic bias from FDI data); and consistent with ‘implicit’ profit shifting through real investment (rather than ‘paper’ profit shifting). Contrary to much policy discussion, the results also imply that: Host countries’ marginal effective tax rates have at best a weak effect on real investment; those elsewhere have none; and, applied to the prospective global minimum tax, inward tangible investment in most sample countries will increase. |
| Date: | 2023–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10427 |
| By: | Jaud, Melise; Kukenova, Madina; Strieborny, Martin |
| Abstract: | Banks and stock markets play distinct roles in helping exporters survive in foreign markets, conditional on the specific financial needs of exported products. Stock markets rather than banks help exporters who lack easily collateralizable tangible assets. Active rather than large stock markets promote exports of products requiring high levels of working capital. And the trade credit can act as a substitute for external financing only from banks and only in the presence of well-established export links. These results on product-level export survival provide new insights into the transmission process from finance to the real economy. |
| Date: | 2023–04–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10403 |
| By: | Bezerra De Goes, Carlos Andre; Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys C.; Robertson, Raymond |
| Abstract: | Gender segmentation in labor markets shapes the local effects of international trade. This paper develops a theory that embeds trade in gender-segmented labor markets and shows that in this framework, foreign demand shocks may increase or decrease the female-to-male employment ratio. If a foreign demand shock from a relevant market happens in a female-intensive (male-intensive) sector, the model predicts that the female-to-male employment ratio should increase (decrease). The paper then uses plausibly exogenous variation in the exposure of Tunisian local labor markets to foreign demand shocks and shows that the empirical results are consistent with the theoretical prediction. In Tunisia, a country with a high degree of gender segmentation in the labor markets, foreign demand shocks have been relatively larger in male-intensive sectors. This induced a decrease in the female-to-male employment ratio, with households likely substituting female for male labor supply. |
| Date: | 2023–07–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10518 |
| By: | Montfaucon, Angella Faith Lapukeni; Senelwa, Victor Kidake; Doarest, Aufa |
| Abstract: | The Indonesian government implemented comprehensive investment reforms in 2021 to encourage investment inflows and related positive impacts. Compared to the previous investment regulation in 2016, the new decree removed foreign direct investment restrictions in over 500 business activities. By estimating the difference in difference in difference event study model, this paper empirically assesses the response in (realized and planned) foreign direct investment and realized domestic direct investment to the reforms. The paper also assesses whether there was growth in investments in fully liberalized sectors linked to Sustainable Development Goals as a proxy for the quality of investment. The results suggest that the investment reforms were associated with increases in realized foreign direct investment, realized direct domestic investment, and planned foreign direct investment, especially in fully liberalized sectors, while there was a decline in all three types of investments in the non-liberalized sectors. The results for planned foreign direct investment suggest that the increase in fully liberalized sectors is likely to continue. The results on direct domestic investment suggest a possible crowding-in effect. Among the fully liberalized sectors, the base metal industry was a key driver of growth, and s ectors linked to Sustainable Development Goals sectors had mixed results. The findings provide suggestive evidence of the complementary effect of trade reforms, although the analysis does not specify which of the several reforms may have led to the increase. These results are robust when the possible effects of Covid-19 recovery and other macroeconomic factors are controlled for. These results are also robust to alternative event study models. Further analysis would be needed to observe the trajectory in both the quality and quantity of investment going forward, the distributional effects and the needed complementary reforms to ensure sustainable gains beyond the short run. |
| Date: | 2023–06–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10478 |
| By: | Franco Bedoya, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | This paper studies globalization dynamics over 1965–2021. Based on the definition that refers to globalization as an extension beyond national borders of the same market forces that operate at all levels of economic activity, the paper is able to determine where the world economy stands compared to the 1960s. The results show that the world economy has not entered an era of deglobalization and that China’s role as one of the globalization leaders started in the mid-1980s. Also, contrary to what the tradeto- GDP ratio suggests, it is shown that China has outperformed the world economy since then. This paper builds on recent contributions in the structural gravity literature and adopts a long-run perspective to offer an analytical toolkit for the current debate around globalization dynamics. The methodology and empirical results provide deep insights across countries and sectors, showing that country-specific events are intuitively captured and illustrating how to disentangle the role of factors like trade agreements. |
| Date: | 2023–05–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10451 |
| By: | Bénétrix, Agustín; Pallan, Hayley Marie; Panizza, Ugo G. |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the link between FDI and economic growth in emerging and developing economies. Analysis of the early decades of the sample shows that there is no statistically significant correlation between FDI and growth for countries with average levels of education or financial depth. In line with previous contributions, this correlation is positive and statistically significant for countries with sufficiently well-developed financial sectors or high levels of human capital. However, the findings also show that the link between FDI and growth varies over time. For more recent periods, there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between FDI and growth for the average country, with local conditions having a negative effect on this link. The paper also develops a novel instrument aimed at addressing the endogeneity of FDI inflows. Instrumental variable estimates suggest that the results are unlikely to be driven by endogeneity, and the results on the role of absorptive capacities may be due to the GVC revolution in the 1990s. |
| Date: | 2023–04–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10422 |
| By: | Minni, Virginia Magda Luisa |
| Abstract: | How are wages set within a multinational firm? Combining cross-country data on wages and labor regulations with personnel records of a large multinational firm, I find that wage setting depends on the rank of the employee in the firm hierarchy. For managers, wages are set by the headquarters regardless of local labor market conditions. For factory workers, wages are adjusted according to country-specific wages and labor regulations. These results suggest that the multinational's internal labor market shields managers against changes in external market conditions, while the firm adapts to local labor markets for factory workers. |
| Keywords: | multinationals; firm wage-setting; inequality |
| JEL: | F23 J30 J31 M52 |
| Date: | 2024–01–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126836 |
| By: | Choi, Yewon; Fernandes, Ana Margarida; Grover, Arti Goswami; Iacovone, Leonardo; Olarreaga, Marcelo |
| Abstract: | A 2021-22 survey of trade promotion organizations conducted by the World Bank to understand how the COVID-19 pandemic affected their functioning suggests four main findings. First, trade promotion organizations in high-income countries are larger than those in low-income countries, suggesting a stronger capacity to adapt during the pandemic. Second, trade promotion organizations in high-income countries saw a significant jump in their median budget in 2021 indicating a strong response effort. In low-income countries, the budgets of trade promotion organizations declined. Third, most trade promotion organizations in high-income countries put in place a COVID-19 recovery plan, while none of the trade promotion organizations in low-income countries had one in place at the time of the survey. Fourth, trade promotion organizations used several virtual tools during the pandemic, such as business-to-business matching events and training of small firms on e-commerce, and are expecting to increase the use of all virtual tools post COVID-19. Trade promotion organizations’ use of virtual tools in low-income countries remained limited. |
| Date: | 2023–03–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10374 |
| By: | Kim, Dongkyu |
| Abstract: | This article delves into the international competition for COVID-19 vaccine patents, focusing on the tensions between policies and systems, cyber diplomacy for solidarity, and security discourse. These aspects are examined through the lens of the Complex Geopolitics theory, which encompasses technological changes. Firstly, concerning security discourse, apprehensions arose regarding the potential transfer of vaccine technology from holders and companies, particularly from the United States, to Russia and China. The concept of Friction between Policies and Systems pertains to the distribution and accessibility policies for vaccines. Specifically, the discourse on compulsory licensing under TRIPs Article 31 and Article 5A of the Paris Agreement has led to a division between central and peripheral countries. In addition to compulsory licensing, France, Russia, China, and other third countries advocated for a straightforward waiver of patent rights. However, Germany and Italy argued that such a waiver would not effectively prevent global pandemics. Lastly, Diplomacy for Solidarity reveals that although the COVID-19 vaccine deliberations prompted diplomatic maneuvers by major powers to secure vaccine alliances, instances of solidarity diplomacy regarding vaccine patents are rare. Notwithstanding, notable examples include the R&D investments between the Austrian and Danish heads of government, as well as the Inclusive Vaccine Alliance comprising Italy, Germany, France, and the Netherlands. Regrettably, these efforts seem more focused on equitable vaccine access rather than patent waiver and/or compulsory licensing. Thus, we confront an imperative time to delve deeper into the discussion of the "third way" advocated by the WTO Director-General. |
| Date: | 2023–08–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8h7rt_v1 |
| By: | Aya Aboulhosn; Cevat Giray Aksoy; Berkay Ozcan |
| Abstract: | Debates about immigration’s role in addressing population aging typically concentrate on immigrant fertility rates. Moreover, standard projections account for migration’s impact on overall population growth while largely overlooking how immigration might affect native fertility. In contrast, we show that forced immigration influences native fertility as well. We investigate this relationship by examining the influx of refugees into Türkiye following the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Using two complementary instrumental variable strategies, we find robust evidence that native fertility increases in response to forced migration. This result holds across three distinct datasets and is further supported by a corresponding rise in subjective fertility measures, such as the ideal number of children. Additionally, we explore four potential mechanisms and document significant heterogeneity in fertility responses among different native subgroups. Our findings suggest that factors related to the labor market and norm transmission may help explain the observed increase in native fertility. |
| Keywords: | forced migration, fertility, refugees, social interactions |
| JEL: | J13 R23 F22 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11683 |
| By: | Aliu, Armando; Aliu, Dorian (University of New York Tirana) |
| Abstract: | The research aims to analyze the impact of the World Trade Organization on enhancing the legitimacy of global economic governance within the scope of the WTO law. The world economic outlook and macro-data indicators demonstrate that the convergence of interests amongst state actors and nonstate actors reinforces the efficiency of Bretton Woods institutions, such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. The objective of this study is to highlight the fact that the WTO has vital efforts to strengthen the legitimacy of the global economic governance mechanism and liberalize economic activity in the world economic system. In a more liberalized transnational relations environment, the activities, operations, and efforts of nonstate actors provide a ground to stabilize economic cooperation and sustainable development. From a macro perspective, the study aims to monitor the first five-year period of the global financial crisis (2008-2013) and present the descriptive statistics and intercorrelations for 36 OECD countries. The research results indicate that 36 states’ governments should develop sustainable solutions to issues related to GDP, social security, and public / private expenditure in global economic governance platforms. In collaboration with governments, the WTO’s role is vital to cooperate with ILO and enhance its legitimacy and efficiency in labor relations, industrial relations, and employment protection. The research results illustrate that global economic governance has been reshaped by a ‘duality of global governance approach’ (i.e., a de facto G2: US-China relations), and the principles of global economic development have been reconstructed during the transition period from the Washington consensus to the Beijing consensus (G2 hegemony), competitively. |
| Date: | 2023–02–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:p259f_v1 |
| By: | Kim, Taehee; Shikano, Susumu (University of Konstanz) |
| Abstract: | Recent political psychological studies on intergroup relationships emphasize the crucial role of emotion in attitude formation and change toward outgroups. They also showed that the distinct dimensions of emotion play some differentiated roles. Relying on these findings, we hypothesize that emotion mediates the impact of the crisis event on the attitudes toward foreign countries. We also argue that the impact of emotion can differ along the distinct dimensions. To provide empirical evidence, we focus on the case of Japan in summer 2012, in which the most part of the public experienced international crises with South Korea and China almost simultaneously but in an only mediated and remote way. Our empirical analysis using a panel survey showed that the dimensions of anger and hatred played a crucial role in attitude changes, while the dimension of fear has no direct impact. Further, we also found the other socio-demographic factors and political attitudes were mediated by the relevant dimensions of emotion, but had no direct impact. |
| Date: | 2023–08–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:wv6dp_v1 |
| By: | Elie Bola Boongo (UNIKIS - Université de Kisangani); Jonathan Kitoko Asenga (UNIKIS - Université de Kisangani); Micheline Azaro Bahati (ISC-BUNIZ - Institut supérieur de commerce de Bunia) |
| Abstract: | This research examines the relationship between trade openness, income inequality and economic growth in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) from 1990 to 2020. Using an ARDL (Auto Regressive Distributed Lag) econometric model, the study assesses the comment trade openness and income inequality influence economic growth. The results of this study demonstrate that in the short term, trade openness has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. Every additional 1 point of trade opening leads to an increase in economic growth of 26.85%; GINI has a negative and significant effect on economic growth. Any increase in inequality of 1 point leads to a decrease in GDPH of 141.8667%., and that in the long term, trade openness has a positive and insignificant effect on economic growth. Every additional 1 point of trade opening results in an increase in economic growth of 84.85%; GINI has a negative and significant effect on economic growth. |
| Abstract: | Cette recherche examine la relation entre l'ouverture commerciale, les inégalités de revenus et la croissance économique en République Démocratique du Congo (RDC) de 1990 à 2020. En utilisant un modèle économétrique ARDL (Auto Regressive Distributed Lag), l'étude évalue comment l'ouverture commerciale et les inégalités de revenu influencent la croissance économique. Les résultats de cette étude démontrent qu'à court terme, L'ouverture commercial exerce un effet positif et significatif sur la croissance économique. Toute ouverture commercial supplémentaire de 1 point entraine une augmentation de la croissance économique de 26.85 % ; Les inégalités de revenu mesurées par l'indice de GINI exerce un effet négatif et significatif sur la croissance économique. Toute augmentation des inégalités de 1 point entraine une diminution du de la croissance économique (PIBH) de 141.8667%., et qu'à long terme, L'ouverture commerciale mesurée par le degré d'ouverture (OUVCOM) exerce un effet positif et non significatif sur la croissance économique. Toute ouverture commerciale supplémentaire de 1 point entraine une augmentation de la croissance économique de 84.85 % ; GINI exerce un effet négatif et significatif sur la croissance économique. |
| Keywords: | Trade openess, Ouverture commerciale, inégalités de revenu, croissance économique, income inequality, economic growth, governance |
| Date: | 2025–12–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04909611 |
| By: | Englander, Aaron Gabriel Ratliffe; Zhang, Jihua; Villaseñor-Derbez, Juan Carlos; Jiang, Qutu; Hu, Mingzhao; Deschenes, Olivier; Costello, Christopher |
| Abstract: | Input subsidies in natural resource sectors are widely believed to deplete the natural capital on which these sectors depend. However, estimating the causal effect of subsidies on resource extraction has been stymied by identification and data challenges. China’s fishing fleet is the world’s largest, and in 2016 the government changed its fuel subsidy policy for distant water vessels to one that increases with predetermined vessel characteristics. Regression discontinuity estimates imply a long-run elasticity of fishing hours with respect to fuel subsidies of 2.2. Consequently, reducing Chinese fuel subsidies by 50 percent could eliminate biological overfishing in several ocean regions. By demonstrating the substantial impact of fuel subsidies on fishing activity and fish stocks, the findings inform ongoing subsidy reform in China, other nations with subsidized fishing vessel fuel, and the World Trade Organization. |
| Date: | 2023–04–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10412 |
| By: | Dalvit, Nicolo; Iootty De Paiva Dias, Mariana; Melecky, Martin; Srinivasan, Nithya |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the performance of firms in Central Asia. It uses unique data from the Business Pulse Survey run by the World Bank in the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, which tracks the sales and employment—along with other main characteristics—of about 1, 200 to 1, 800 firms in a panel structure. The survey contains two waves before and one wave after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Using the difference-in-differences methodology in a regression setup, the analysis finds that Central Asian firms with pre-invasion trade links to Russia suffered greater drops in sales and employment after the invasion—even though exporters to Russia may have experienced, on average, higher sales during the studied period. Considering the pre-invasion digitization of firms, the findings show that digitization helped firms increase their average employment during the studied period. However, the analysis does not find any significant mitigating effect of digitalization associated with the impact of the invasion. |
| Date: | 2023–08–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10557 |
| By: | Yao, Koffi Yves; Kouakou, Auguste Konan; |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the essential role of migration and remittances in development across sub-Saharan Africa, with a particular focus on Côte d’Ivoire. It demonstrates that these financial flows help alleviate poverty and stabilise the economy in the short term while fostering long-term development through investments in human capital, entrepreneurship, and social protection. However, several challenges persist: excessive reliance on remittances may hinder local productivity, weaken exports, and increase import dependency. The paper recommends policies aimed at economic diversification, enhanced financial inclusion, reduced transfer costs, and better-coordinated migration policies to maximise the developmental benefits of remittances. |
| Keywords: | Migration, Remittances, Financing of Development |
| JEL: | F22 F24 O1 |
| Date: | 2025–02–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123655 |
| By: | Manning, Alan; Mazeine, Graham |
| Abstract: | Return migration is important, but how many migrants leave and who is poorly understood. This paper proposes a new method for estimating return migration rates using aggregated repeated cross-sectional data, treating the number of migrants in a group who arrived in a particular year as an unobserved fixed effect, and the observed number (including, importantly, observed zeroes) in the arrival or subsequent years as observations from a Poisson distribution. Compared to existing methods, this allows us to estimate return rates for many more migrant groups, allowing more in-depth analysis of the factors that influence return migration rates. We apply this method to US data and find a decreasing hazard, with most returns occurring by eight years after arrival, when about 13% of migrants have left. The return rate is significantly lower for women, those who arrive at a young age, and those from poorer; it is higher for those on non-immigrant visas for work or study. We also provide suggestive evidence that, conditional on their country of origin, those with lower education are more likely to return. |
| Keywords: | return migration |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–02–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126831 |
| By: | Iimi, Atsushi |
| Abstract: | The recent global crises, such as the COVID-19 crisis, remind us of the importance of efficient transportation and logistics. Notably, however, even before the crises, some regions were already experiencing a gradual increase in freight costs, with more and more empty trucks observed. The paper recasts light on the question of how road freight costs are determined using large, unique shipping data from Eastern European and Central Asian countries. It finds that economies of scale are significant in both freight weight or load factor and distance. The elasticity with respect to freight weight is particularly high at about 0.3 to 1.0 in absolute terms. Thus, to contain trucking costs, it is important to maximize the load factor through freight consolidation at origins and destinations. The elasticity with respect to distance is relatively modest at 0.04 to 0.16 in absolute terms but still statistically significant, indicating that distance may not necessarily be a constraint on trade and regional integration. Trucking costs also decrease with driving speed, a proxy for efficiency of movements or road conditions. The elasticity is significant for food products (−0.03) and other consumer goods (−0.11). Finally, the paper finds that border crossing adds 3–4 percent to freight costs. |
| Date: | 2023–07–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10533 |
| By: | Halim, Daniel Zefanya; Seetahul, Suneha |
| Abstract: | Work-related migration has many potential drivers. While current literature has outlined a theoretical framework of various “push-pull” factors affecting the likelihood of international migration, empirical papers are often constrained by the scarcity of detailed data on migration, especially in developing countries, and are forced to look at few of these factors in isolation. When detailed data is available, researchers may face arbitrary choices of which variables to include and how to sequence their inclusion. As male and female migrants tend to face occupational segregation, the determinants of migration likely differ by gender, which compounds these data challenges. To overcome these three issues, this paper uses a rich primary household survey among migrant communities in Indonesia and employs two supervised machine-learning methods to identify the top predictors of migration by gender: random forests and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator stability selection. The paper confirms some determinants established by earlier studies and reveals several additional ones, as well as identifies differences in predictors by gender. |
| Date: | 2023–04–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10396 |
| By: | Holmes, Mark; Valera, Harold Glenn; Pede, Valerien; Balié, Jean |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between export prices and domestic fragrant basmati rice markets in Pakistan over the period 2009 to 2022, combining monthly price data from five locations and six international references rice markets. Unlike previous studies, we use a quantile cointegration model to study market cointegration between the international and domestic rice markets. We find that cointegration is less likely when domestic prices are relatively low. In this, we argue that higher domestic prices will serve to motivate arbitrage thereby making domestic prices sensitive to export prices. Furthermore, we find evidence of inelastic relationship in which domestic prices seem insensitive to export prices. The results further suggest that if cointegration is more likely at the higher quantiles, then there might be an increase in sensivity, though an inelastic relationship remains. |
| Keywords: | Rice markets, Cointegration, Quantile regression, Pakistan |
| JEL: | Q11 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123724 |
| By: | Koolwal, Gayatri B.; Grown, Caren; Ahmed, Nasiruddin |
| Abstract: | Using newly available customs data from Bangladesh, along with additional administrative and survey data, this study examines how variation in import tariffs on key agricultural inputs affects men’s and women’s agricultural employment and production—given a high degree of segmentation among men and women in different agricultural activities. In Bangladesh, women and men in agriculture are typically smallholders and maintain distinct occupations within the sector (women in livestock and poultry rearing, and men in crop agriculture). These areas are both heavily dependent on imported commodities (grains and oilseed for livestock and poultry feed, as well as seeds and fertilizer for crop agriculture). The paper shows that import tariff rates are much higher on feed-related inputs; imported inputs for crop agriculture, such as fertilizer, are also heavily subsidized. The paper also shows that the higher resulting prices for inputs used in feed are significantly negatively associated with employment and earnings in poultry and livestock activity, where women are heavily concentrated. Among those marketing output, earnings also tend to be substantially higher in crop agriculture than in livestock/poultry activity, underscoring the need for closely examining how import tariffs can affect more vulnerable groups. Individual producers are also heavily reliant on livestock for own-consumption activity, reducing their ability to pass on increased input costs. |
| Date: | 2023–06–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10488 |
| By: | Manogna R. L.; Nishil Kulkarni |
| Abstract: | The financialization of agricultural commodities and its impact on food security has become an increasing concern. This study empirically investigates the role of financialization in global food markets and its policy implications for a stable and secure food system. Using panel data regression models, moderating effects models, and panel regression with a threshold variable, we analyze wheat, maize, and soybean futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade. We incorporate data on annual trading volume, open interest contracts, and their ratio. The sample consists of five developed countries (United States, Australia, Canada, France, Germany) and seven developing countries (China, Russia, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Vietnam, Thailand), covering the period 2000 to 2021. The Human Development Index (HDI) serves as a threshold variable to differentiate the impact across countries. Our findings indicate that the financialization of agricultural commodities has negatively affected global food security, with wheat and soybean showing a greater adverse impact than maize. The effects are more pronounced in developing countries. Additionally, we find that monetary policy has the potential to mitigate these negative effects. These results provide insights for policymakers to design strategies that ensure a secure and accessible global food supply. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2502.05560 |
| By: | Rasa, Mohammad Mirwais; Haq, Inamul |
| Abstract: | Diversification of transport and trade routes has been the key element of the CAREC Program since its inception in 2001. For this purpose, the concept of six CAREC corridors has been developed.1 The purpose of these corridors is to provide connectivity within and outside the CAREC region in various directions and to expand the economies’ access to new markets. The demand for such diversification in CAREC economies has been greatly amplified by ecent external shocks, which have affected the traditional CAREC transport and transit routes crossing Russian territory. The CAREC Corridor 2, which largely coincides with what is called the Middle Corridor, provides the only feasible alternative to these traditional routes. For this reason, this corridor has attracted a lot of attention from the CAREC governments and development partners. |
| Keywords: | Transit Routes, Central Asia, Afghanistan, Trade Logistics |
| JEL: | F1 F15 F18 |
| Date: | 2023–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123542 |
| By: | Zahid, Hamza |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of U.S. energy shocks on international economic activity and the world oil market. The analysis uses a set of factor-augmented vector autoregressions to identify and compare the impact of unanticipated changes in U.S. energy efficiency and U.S. oil supply over 1980Q1–2019Q4. The identification strategy relies on the fact that positive shocks in both cases decrease the real price of oil and increase global gross domestic product (GDP), while generating opposite implications for world oil production and consumption. On average, U.S. energy efficiency shocks have a larger impact on the real price of oil and global GDP than U.S. oil supply shocks. Historical decompositions suggest that in 2010–19, U.S. oil supply shocks increased GDP by 2 percent, while (negative) energy efficiency shocks decreased global GDP by 1.3 percent. The latter effect dominated during the second shale boom in 2017–19. Considerable heterogeneity exists in cross-country responses, with favorable implications for GDP in advanced and emerging market oil importers and adverse implications for oil exporters. The empirical findings are interpreted through the lens of a dynamic general equilibrium multi-country model that features a global oil market and where key parameters are estimated using indirect inference. |
| Date: | 2023–04–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10402 |