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on International Trade |
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Issue of 2026–09–21
six papers chosen by Nicola Daniele Coniglio, Università degli Studi di Bari “Aldo Moro” |
| By: | Marc-Antoine Faure; César Ducruet |
| Abstract: | Container shipping has become a cornerstone of global supply chains, regional integration, and port-city development. The globalization of trade and, at the same time, the increased vulnerability of supply chains have created a more efficient yet fragile system. In this chapter, using a unique dataset of more than four million ship movements, we uncover the local and global dynamics of container flows. Starting in the 1970s, with the diffusion of container technology in international trade, we analyse fifty years of global trade through the lens of network structures and community detection. We document (i) an almost continuous expansion in nodes and links with improving topological efficiency up to the mid-2010s, followed by (ii) the consequences of recent shocks, such as COVID-19, Red Sea disruptions, and the Panama Canal drought, which highlights the vulnerability of the container shipping network. Using single linkage analysis, we also show the evolution of trade dependencies, the emergence of China particularly towards Africa over the last decade, and the persistence of certain port systems such as the European system around Rotterdam. We open a new avenue of research by combining global and local, systemic and long-term quantitative analyses to understand the dynamics of international trade. |
| Keywords: | complex networks; international trade; container shipping |
| JEL: | F14 R40 L91 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2026-19 |
| By: | Egorov, Konstantin; Korovkin, Vasily; Makarin, Alexey; Nigmatulina, Dzhamilya |
| Abstract: | Does uncertainty created by the risk of sanctions affect trade above and beyond the sanctions actually imposed? While most restrictions on Russian imports were introduced immediately after the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the sanctioning countries simultaneously pledged further escalation unless the conflict ended. In line with this threat, we estimate that the subsequent escalations were largely anticipated in advance, with trade flows declining many months before they actually became subject to sanctions. Crucially, this effect was not limited just to sanctioned trade flows: we also estimate a decline for a wide range of never-sanctioned trade flows that nonetheless could have been perceived as being at risk of future sanctions. Overall, our results imply that Russia lost the equivalent of about a month and a half of imports over 2022-23 due to the escalation of sanctions after April 2022, with two-thirds of this loss driven by reductions in never-sanctioned trade flows that were only at risk of sanctions. |
| Keywords: | sanctions, international trade, Russia-Ukraine war, geoeconomics, uncertainty |
| JEL: | D22 D74 F14 F51 H56 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:343078 |
| By: | Huppertz, Maximilian (Department of Economics, Oberlin College) |
| Abstract: | It is well established that climate change affects productivity, but its effects on trade costs have not been studied. I combine international trade and weather data covering 190 years and show how an augmented gravity framework can be used to estimate the impact of climate change on bilateral trade cost. I find that climate change, as measured by decadal temperature shifts at the origin or destination country, increases them. Adaptation to these changes seems slow. They appear to be driven by impacts on maritime trade in particular, perhaps due to the vulnerability of seaports to climate change. Combining these results with a standard international trade model, I find that 2010s welfare would increase by 1.7 percent if we could undo the impact of climate change on trade cost over the preceding 100 years. Welfare gains depend not only on countries’ own climate trends, but also on their neighbors’ trajectories. Smaller economies, which are more reliant on international trade, are especially affected. Ignoring this trade cost channel and focusing only on productivity impacts leads to a nine percent underestimate of the welfare effect of climate change, with larger differences for smaller open economies. Because it is based on a gravity framework, my methodology can easily be embedded in studies of the impact of climate change. |
| Date: | 2026–08–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cxv:wpaper:2606 |
| By: | Nick Heyman; Colin J. Hottman; Ryan Monarch |
| Abstract: | This note examines the heterogeneous exposure of states in terms of their consumption of direct consumer goods imports, which is an important channel through which states are exposed to increases in trade costs such as tariffs. Building on the methodology that Hottman and Monarch (2020) and Hottman and Monarch (2026) used to construct a similar measure for U.S. income deciles and other demographic groups, we construct a new state-level measure using a recent year of data. |
| Date: | 2026–09–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:103749 |
| By: | Erik Dietzenbacher; Hylke Dijkstra; Konstantin M. Wacker (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Geopolitical tensions, security concerns, and the COVID-19 supply chain disruptions have prompted countries to reconsider their reliance on the origin of the inputs they use in production. Consequently, policy makers and researchers are increasingly interested in understanding shoring strategies and patterns of production relocation. While the interest in shoring has surged, the literature offers ample measures for (off-, re-, near-, friend-) shoring, ranging from intuitively appealing, simple indicators to more sophisticated, complex metrics based on input-output techniques. Those measures come with specific trade-offs and assumptions. Without a proper understanding of these measures, empirical analyses – and the policies based on them – risk being misinformed. Against this background, this paper compares five different measures – so-called domestic participation indicators (DPIs) – that aim to measure shoring and production locations. In particular, we examine how they behave under different forms of shoring. We use global multiregional input-output (GMRIO) tables from the OECD, covering 45 industries in 76 countries, to track the development of the five DPIs through the stages of (de-)globalisation between 1995 and 2022. We find that the direct DPIs explain the trends in globalisation well. |
| Keywords: | Offshoring, reshoring, domestic participation indexes, global value chains, input-output tables |
| JEL: | F15 F14 F62 L60 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:spaper:statr:14 |
| By: | Moaz Elsayed; Christoph Grosse Steffen; Magali Marx |
| Abstract: | Not all supply-chain disruptions have the same macroeconomic consequences. We developed the Global Supply Chain Tension Index (GSTIX), a novel set of publicly available indicators. It distinguishes transportation disruptions from input-production disruptions, which reduce the availability of critical intermediate inputs. We show that the latter have more persistent effects on inflation. The GSTIX offers a tool for assessing inflationary pressures and informing policy. <p> Les perturbations des chaînes d’approvisionnement n’ont pas toutes les mêmes conséquences macroéconomiques. Nous avons développé l’indice de tension sur les chaînes d’approvisionnement mondiales (Global Supply Chain Tension Index, GSTIX), un nouvel ensemble d’indicateurs accessibles au public. Il établit une distinction entre les perturbations du transport et les perturbations de la production d’intrants, qui réduisent la disponibilité d’intrants intermédiaires critiques. Nous montrons que les secondes ont des effets plus persistants sur l’inflation. L’indice GSTIX constitue un outil permettant d’évaluer les tensions inflationnistes et d’éclairer la prise de décisions. |
| Date: | 2026–08–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:econot:458 |