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on International Trade |
| By: | TODO Yasuyuki; NISHITATENO Shuhei; Sean BROWN |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on foreign direct investment (FDI) from China and other major source countries, such as the United States (US), France and Japan, by applying staggered difference-in-differences (DID) event study estimations to a gravity model. In addition to estimations using country-pair fixed effects, we employ models with source and host country-year fixed effects to control for effects through changes in any host country attribute due to the BRI, such as infrastructural changes. By so doing, we separately estimate the BRI effect as changes occur in bilateral relationships. We find that FDI from China, Hong Kong, the US, Switzerland, Japan, and France to BRI countries increased in the post-BRI period, whereas FDI from the UK, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg decreased. After controlling for country-year fixed effects, there remains a post-BRI upward trend in FDI from the US, Switzerland, and France and a downward trend in FDI from the UK, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg. These findings suggest that FDI from non-China countries to BRI countries are affected by individual bilateral relationships between the non-China countries and the BRI recipient countries. For example, the US may invest more in BRI countries to strategically compete with China in those locations. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25004 |
| By: | Juarez, Leticia; Bernini, Federico; García-Lembergman, Ezequiel |
| Abstract: | As WTO regulations limited tariffs, non-tariff barriers, such as import licenses (NAILs), became essential trade policy tools. This paper examines how NAILs impact downstream firms in Argentina. Using a novel dataset and the staggered introduction of NAILs between 2005-2011 for identification, we analyze their causal effects on firms' imports and the subsequent effect on exports and employment. Results indicate that NAILs reduce firms' imports, inducing more exposed firms to reduce exports and employment. A trade model with oligopolistic competition suggests that firms' market power can moderate the impact of NAILs in highly concentrated markets. |
| JEL: | D43 F13 F14 F42 F68 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13961 |
| By: | Agbekponou, Kossi Messanh; Cheptea, Angela; Latouche, Karine; Le Roy, Cécilia |
| Abstract: | Value chains have become increasingly global over the past decades. Production processes are incrementally fragmented across countries, and more and more firms search for suppliers and customers beyond the domestic market. Still, there is strong heterogeneity in the degree at which individual firms are involved in global value chains (GVCs). Measuring firms' participation and position in GVCs requires both firm-level data on international trade flows and detailed input-output tables. While the former are usually well reflected in countries' customs data, the latter usually aggregate economic activities into a small number of large sectors. This broad definition of sectors/industries narrows down the possibility to differentiate between upstream and downstream activities and products, which is essential for measuring the implication in GVCs of firms from a specific sector or industry. In this paper, we develop a method based on the proportionality hypothesis that permits to properly match the rich U.S. input-output table, where industries/sectors are defined at a very narrow level, with detailed French firm-level trade data. Based on correspondences between industries in U.S. and French data, we rewrite the U.S. input-output table at the level of detail at which industries are defined in the French customs data. We apply the result to the case of the agri-food sector, and characterize the participation and positioning of French agri-food firms in GVCs. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Organization, International Relations/Trade, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:inrasl:349136 |
| By: | Fahmida Khatun; Syed Yusuf Saadat; Afrin Mahbub |
| Abstract: | In Bangladesh, bicycle exports are the largest exports in the country’s light engineering sector. Notably, bicycle exports account for 7.5 per cent of all light engineering exports (Kathuria & Malouche, 2016). In the global value chain (GVC) of bicycle production, Bangladesh focuses on assembling a large number of parts, with the manufacturing process being less energy-intensive. Currently, the leading producers of bicycles are in China, followed by Indonesia, India, and Japan (Veliu & Surabian, 2016). In Bangladesh, the bicycle export industry has emerged only recently. However, the bicycle manufacturing industry has significant potential in the global economy. The top destinations for bicycle exports from Bangladesh include the United Kingdom (64 per cent), Germany (14 per cent), and Belgium (9 per cent) (Kathuria & Malouche, 2016). |
| Keywords: | Bicycle Industry, Value Chain, Bangladesh |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:pbrief:51 |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad |
| Abstract: | In 2024, one of the most notable developments in the Azerbaijani economy that demands detailed analysis is the transformation of foreign trade statistics. This article provides an in-depth examination of Azerbaijan's foreign trade landscape in 2024, focusing on its dynamics, structure, and geographic composition. It evaluates emerging trends, highlights current and future challenges, and considers devaluation expectations alongside their short- and medium-term implications. For a comprehensive perspective, the analysis also includes a retrospective review of the past three years, emphasizing the post-COVID recovery period. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, customs statistics, foreign trade turnover, export, import, trade balance, trade partner, goods, crude oil, natural gas, food products, currency, manat, devaluation |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:309064 |
| By: | Xiaopeng Wang; Chengyi Tu; Shuhao Chen; Sicheng Wang; Ying Fan; Samir Suweis; Paolo D'Odorico |
| Abstract: | As the global population and the per capita demand for resource intensive diets continues to grow, the corresponding increase in food demand challenges the global food system, enhancing its reliance on trade. Most previous research typically constructed either unweighted networks or weighted solely by tonnage to represent food trade, and focused on bilateral trade relationships between pairs of countries. This study investigates the properties of global food trade constructed in terms of total food calories associated with all the main food products exchanged along each trade link (edge of the food trade network). Utilizing data from the Food and Agriculture Organization between 1986 and 2022, we construct a directed, weighted network of net caloric flows between countries. This approach highlights the importance of considering nutritional value in discussions of food security and trade policies, offering a more holistic view of global food trade dynamics. Our analysis reveals significant heterogeneity in trade patterns, with certain countries emerging as major exporters or importers of food calories. Moreover, we employ network measures, including network connectivity, network heterogeneity, network modularity, and node correlation similarity, to elucidate the structural dynamics of global net food calorie trade networks that are relevant to the stability and resilience of the global food system. Our work provides a more nuanced understanding of global food trade dynamics, emphasizing the need for comprehensive strategies to enhance the resilience and sustainability of food trade networks. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2411.18856 |
| By: | Arghya GHOSH; MUKUNOKI Hiroshi |
| Abstract: | Given the rising trend of cross-ownership and mergers and acquisitions, this study builds an oligopoly model with general demand to analyze how partial cross-ownership (PCO) affects market competition and merger control policies in international trade. In our model, ad valorem tariffs are imposed on imports. If the extent of PCO is sufficiently large, international PCO becomes more anti-competitive than domestic PCO, resulting in a higher price. This contrasts with previous results indicating that an international merger is always less anti-competitive than a domestic merger. Additionally, international PCO can result in a higher price than both domestic and international mergers, even without merger synergy effects. Moreover, when competition authorities employ a consumer surplus standard as the merger control policy, pre-merger PCO facilitates approval of the subsequent merger. Trade liberalization encourages the approval of domestic mergers but blocks international mergers from being approved. By way of policy implications, these results suggest that competition authorities should regulate international PCO more heavily. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25003 |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad |
| Abstract: | Since March 2020, Azerbaijan has maintained the closure of its land borders with Russia, Iran, and Georgia. While initially framed as a response to the global pandemic, this decision carries profound and lasting implications. Although the government may perceive political benefits, the broader public continues to bear the economic costs. The direct and indirect consequences of these closures are substantial and warrant thorough examination. This article aims to explore the complex social and economic repercussions—both immediate and long-term—resulting from the prolonged closure of Azerbaijan’s land and sea borders. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan-Georgia border, Azerbaijan-Russia border, Azerbaijan-Iran border, regional economy, cross-border trade, cross-border regional economy, transportation, tourism, unemployment, immigration, inflation |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:309065 |
| By: | MAHMOUD ARBOUCH; ASYA PELKES |
| Abstract: | The European Union’s (EU) Global Gateway initiative, established to enhance global connectivity and sustainable infrastructure, offers a significant opportunity to align with Africa’s development goals under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). However, the challenge lies in whether the Global Gateway can effectively complement AfCFTA’s objectives of boosting intra-African trade and industrialization by addressing critical infrastructure gaps. This paper examines how the EU’s initiative can foster successful partnerships rather than dependencies, while supporting Africa’s economic integration and sustainable development. The paper argues that aligning the AfCFTA and Global Gateway initiatives can foster sustainable and inclusive growth by reducing logistical bottlenecks, enhancing regional trade, and creating a competitive and integrated African market. However, achieving these goals requires strategic coordination, robust policy frameworks, and a commitment to balancing external partnerships with Africa-centric priorities, to ensure long-term sovereignty and economic resilience. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pp_21-24_0 |
| By: | Rutar, Tibor (Faculty of Arts, University of Maribor); Hočevar, Marko |
| Abstract: | Liberal economic institutions – such as secure property rights, modest regulation, and free international trade – seem to boost economic development, but how do they relate to relative poverty? Surprisingly, given the social salience of this question in the age of globalization, there is almost no comprehensive research using global panel data and aggregate indices of economic freedom to investigate it. We construct such a dataset with 139 countries, and present fixed-effects and dynamic-panel regressions of relative poverty on liberal economic institutions, measured with the Fraser Institute’s Economic Freedom of the World (EFW) index. Our baseline finding is that over-time increases in economic freedom – especially modesty of government size and freedom of international trade – predict decreases in relative poverty. This relationship turns out to be heterogenous and strongly mediated by unemployment, such that economic freedom decreases unemployment, which in turn decreases relative poverty. Crucially, we find that collectivism, a cultural variable, strongly moderates the relationship between economic freedom and poverty to the extent that it becomes non-significant in societies tending toward collectivism. Concerning endogeneity, our results are shown to be quite robust to moderate levels of omitted-variable bias in formal tests, and there are indications that they are not biased by reverse causality. |
| Date: | 2025–01–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:7ay6p |
| By: | Arpita Mukherjee (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Souvik Dutta; Eshana Mukherjee; Ketaki Gaikwad; Trishali Khanna |
| Abstract: | India is one of the world's largest producers and exporters of spices, including turmeric, the 'Golden Spice of India'. Over 30 varieties of turmeric are cultivated in India across more than 20 states, of which six varieties have a geographical indication (GI) tag to safeguard and promote their uniqueness. As of 2023, India accounts for 73.40 per cent of global production and 66.56 per cent of global exports of turmeric, driven by its diverse range of end-uses, including dyes, cosmetics, food, traditional medicines (Ayurveda) and modern preventive care (nutraceuticals). The Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India, launched the National Turmeric Board and has projected that turmeric exports will reach USD 1 billion by 2030. Aligned with this vision, the report outlines a roadmap to elevate India’s position in the global value chain from an exporter of raw and intermediate products to unlocking the full potential of the 'Make in India' initiative for value-added products.The report is based on secondary data and information analysis, and a primary survey of value chain partners. The report is the first of its kind to capture the entire value chain of a key spice grown in India with an aim to support the governments at the Centre and states to come up with targeted policies for value addition in the country and linking farmers and small manufacturers to global value chains. If the recommendations are implemented, it will bring in investment in manufacturing and across the value chain. The report is of value to manufacturers, their value chain partners, policymakers, researchers, and other stakeholders working towards enhancing India's standing in product-specific value chains. |
| Keywords: | turmeric, curcumin, spices, value chain, make in India, haldi |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:report:25-r-02 |
| By: | Hong Ma; Luca Macedoni; Jingxin Ning; Mingzhi (Jimmy) Xu |
| Abstract: | Using disaggregated US household expenditure data, we study the distributional consequences of the US-China trade war. We estimate a highly flexible demand system to compute household-specific price indexes. The increases in US tariffs on Chinese products between 2018 and 2019 led to an average price index increase of 1.09%, with a disproportionately larger impact on low-income households. Specifically, we document a 0.9 percentage point smaller increase in the household price index for the top 20% income households compared to the bottom 20%. The dif-ference stems from wealthier households’ greater expenditure adjustments and smaller reductions in product variety. |
| Keywords: | US-China trade war, tariffs, income inequality, distributional effects of tariffs, household consumption |
| JEL: | F14 D31 F13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11610 |
| By: | Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm |
| Abstract: | The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a non-reciprocal trade preference offered by the United States to Sub-Saharan African countries, is set to expire on 30 September 2025. The present article examines the effect of the AGOA suspension on poverty in suspended countries. The analysis covers an unbalanced sample of 43 SSA countries, of which 15 SSA countries at least once from the benefits of the AGOA (the treatment group), and 28 SSA countries eligible to the benefits of the programme, but that never suspended from those benefits (control group). The empirical findings indicate that the AGOA suspension has raised poverty in suspended countries, with countries that export non-resource products being the most adversely affected. In addition, the AGOA suspension results in a higher poverty rate in the long-term than in the short-term. Finally, the analysis has revealed that the poverty situation of suspended countries has worsened relatively to countries that never benefited from the programme. This shows that the poverty situation of the suspended countries has deteriorated after the AGOA suspension compared to what their situation would have been if they did not benefit from the programme. The analysis sheds light on the poverty increases consequences of the AGOA suspension, and also points to the adverse consequences of the uncertainty surrounding non-reciprocal trade preferences for beneficiary countries. |
| Keywords: | AGOA Suspension, Poverty, Sub-Saharan African countries |
| JEL: | F14 I30 O11 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:309194 |
| By: | Christopher Clayton; Matteo Maggiori; Jesse Schreger |
| Abstract: | Great powers are increasingly using their economic and financial strength for geopolitical aims. This rise of "geoeconomics" has the potential to reshape the international trade and financial system. This paper examines the role of domestic political economy forces in determining a government's ability to project geoeconomic power abroad. We also discuss the role that persuading or coercing foreign governments plays in projecting geoeconomic power around the world. |
| JEL: | F3 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33353 |
| By: | Mehling, M. A.; Dolphin, G.; Ritz, R. A. |
| Abstract: | Adopted in 2023, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is a significant component of the European Union's ambitious decarbonization strategy under the European Green Deal. This working paper questions the CBAM's effectiveness in achieving its stated objective, prevention of carbon leakage, but proceeds to document its impactful role in accelerating the global diffusion of carbon pricing. Empirical evidence for carbon leakage remains sparse, and implementation challenges would limit the capacity of the CBAM to counteract leakage even where it occurs. Nonetheless, the CBAM has already demonstrated a powerful spillover effect by incentivizing the acceleration of carbon pricing roadmaps across EU trading partners, suggesting that trade-related climate measures can effectively encourage global climate action. As the EU navigates the complexities of operationalizing the CBAM, it must balance several tradeoffs to maintain this important spillover effect. If successful, the CBAM could catalyze a virtuous cycle of carbon pricing adoption, reinforcing its pivotal role in the EU's toolbox to manage the environment-trade nexus. |
| Keywords: | CBAM, Carbon Pricing, Carbon Leakage, Environment-Trade Nexus, European Union |
| JEL: | F42 H23 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2459 |
| By: | Maria Jose Carreras-Valle; Alessandro Ferrari |
| Abstract: | Since 2018, there has been a consistent decline in the distance traveled by U.S. manufacturing imports, reaching a level not observed since 2008. This trend is the result of the substitution away from imports from China and towards imports from closer countries. At the same time, U.S. manufacturing inventory-to-sales ratio has continued to rise. These trends are at odds with the literature, which finds that reductions in the distance of imports are associated with a decline in inventories. We argue that a rise in delivery time risk, driven by longer and more frequent delays and supply disruptions, can reconcile these trends. We do so in the context of a model of global sourcing with stochastic delivery times and inventories. Firms trade off the lower price of farther inputs with the increase in exposure to demand volatility and longer delays. In response, firms increase their inventories. Yet, as delivery delays rise, firms need to carry more inventories per unit of the input used. We calibrate the model for the period from 2018 to 2024 using data on the increase in tariffs for inputs from China, and the rise in inventories over sales. We find an increase in delivery delays for foreign inputs of 21 days across the period. The rise in delays and tariffs had an output loss of 7.3% and a price increase of 1.8%. Of these, the rise in delivery delays alone generated a 2.6% drop in output and a 0.4% increase in prices. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.08728 |
| By: | Fahmida Khatun; Syed Yusuf Saadat; Afrin Mahbub |
| Abstract: | The leather industry is an important contributor to Bangladesh’s export revenue. As such, this industry is vital in emerging as a promising sector, especially in export diversification and creating a more integrated industrial value chain. The industry benefits significantly from backward linkages in the value chain, consequently increasing its external competitiveness. In addition, there is substantial potential for producing higher value-added goods within the sector, which can be pivotal in attracting premium export prices. The leather industry provides Bangladesh with an optimistic avenue for greater participation within the global value chain (GVC), owing to its labour-intensive nature and horizontal linkages with the RMG industry (Razzaque, Uddin, & Rahman, 2018). |
| Keywords: | Leather Industry, Value Chain, Bangladesh |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:pbrief:52 |
| By: | Sundaravalli Narayanaswami |
| Abstract: | This paper examines India’s gold trade dynamics in the context of expectations of a rise in customs duty rates in the Union Budget 2025-26. The persistent demand for physical gold in India, which has remained inelastic over time, is largely met through imports due to limited domestic sources. The Government of India has attempted to regulate gold imports through customs duty adjustments, but our findings reveal that such measures have limited long-term effectiveness. Instead, higher rates encourage imports which utilise multi-duty structures. We argue for a structural shift in policy, including eliminating duty differential for all gold-based commodities, fostering strategic mining partnerships with resource-rich nations, and introducing short-term tax amnesty schemes to monetize household gold holdings. Furthermore, our analysis emphasizes the need to complement import management strategies with efforts to enhance exports, particularly in the gems and jewellery sector, which faces significant structural challenges. |
| Date: | 2025–01–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:14719 |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa); Juste Some (Université Norbert Zongo, Koudougou, Burkina Faso) |
| Abstract: | The motivation of the present study is to complement the extant literature by assessing the relevance of governance and information technology in how African trade affects female labour force participation. The study focuses on 48 African countries using data for the period 1996 to 2021. An adopted empirical strategy is the fixed effects regressions that are designed to address concerns for simultaneity and the unobserved heterogeneity. The fractional probit model based on the pooled Bernoulli quasi-maximum likelihood method is also employed. The following main findings are established. First, governance moderates intra-African trade to engender positive synergies on female labour force participation. The positive synergies are apparent from the overall quality of institutions, government effectiveness and the rule of law. Second, information technology does not significantly moderate intra-African trade to affect female labour force participation. The established findings from fixed effects regressions are robust to fractional probit model estimations. The findings are relevant in informing policy makers on how governance can be used to moderate the influence of African trade in promoting female labour force participation. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | ICT; Governance; Inclusion; Gender; Africa |
| JEL: | G20 I10 I32 O40 O55 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aak:wpaper:24/013 |
| By: | Vanya Georgieva |
| Abstract: | Industrial policy has gained popularity in recent years and across all regions and income levels. Consequently, it is increasingly important to understand how governments choose the sectors they target. This analysis explores the role of domestic production networks in sector targeting, while controlling for other sector and global value chain characteristics. Combining datasets on industrial policy (Global Trade Alert) and input-output linkages (ICIO, OECD) provides novel insight into the network features of industrial policy. In particular, a sector’s ‘centrality’—i.e., its degree of connectedness - within the domestic production network is an important and significant predictor of sector intervention. The results indicate that industrial policy is used differently across regions, income groups, time periods, and types of policy tools. Notably, emerging economies tend to target more central sectors, while advanced economies target less central ones, on average. However, there has been a global shift toward more central sectors over time. Lastly, subsidies are deployed on more central sectors, while tariffs are used on less central ones. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Policy; Trade Policy; Subsidies; Global Value Chains; Production Networks; Spillovers |
| Date: | 2025–01–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/023 |
| By: | Mina Baliamoune |
| Abstract: | Using panel data from a large group of developing economies and a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator, we examine the effects of trade and other factors on female labor-force participation and wage employment. We focus particularly on comparing the effects of trade openness in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region with Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The empirical results indicate that trade openness affects female labor-force participation and wage employment differently in these three regions. Moreover, the effects of other determinants of labor market outcomes, such as income, education, fertility, and electricity, also vary by region. We discuss the policy implications of the findings for the MENA region. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pp_18-24 |
| By: | Ilya Stepanov; Diego A Gutierrez; Mr. Camilo E Tovar Mora |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the potential impact of border carbon adjustments on Trinidad and Tobago’s exports. Despite its marginal contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions, the country’s high carbon intensity exposes the economy to global low-carbon transition risks. The paper aims to raise awareness and encourage discussions on critical actions needed to maintain export competitiveness, enhance diversification, support balance of payments stability, and finance a green transition. The analysis recommends building on existing policies to integrate transition risks into development strategies, promote carbon intensity reduction, accumulate relevant data, and explore innovative emissions reduction approaches, including carbon pricing. |
| Keywords: | carbon pricing; border carbon adjustment; Trinidad and Tobago; EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM); decarbonization; climate policy |
| Date: | 2025–01–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/028 |
| By: | HIGASHIDA Keisaku; OKOSHI Hirofumi |
| Abstract: | Parallel to governments’ fiscal policy competition to attract a foreign firm, countries’ attention to environmental damages grows. This paper analyzes fiscal competition between two asymmetric-sized countries under production-based pollution. An indigenous local firm exists in a large country, and two countries design a lump-sum fiscal policy for a multinational enterprise (MNE) outside the region. We find that fiscal competition changes the equilibrium location of an MNE from the large country to the small country when interregional trade costs are sufficiently small. Moreover, we show that whether a change in the MNE’s location due to fiscal competition leads to eco-friendly location depends on how superior clean technology the MNE owns. Besides, we find that fiscal competition can improve welfare in competing countries simultaneously: the small country successfully attracts the MNE with a tax because the counteroffer by the large government has a heavier tax whereas a large country benefits from losing the MNE through less environmental damages. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:24086 |
| By: | Fahmida Khatun; Syed Yusuf Saadat; Anika Ferdous Richi; Anisha Ushrat Aurchi |
| Abstract: | The pharmaceutical industry of Bangladesh is one of the most technologically advanced sectors in the country, contributing significantly to domestic healthcare and exports. Despite its strengths, the industry faces technological limitations, particularly in producing active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and investing in research and development (R&D). Bangladesh’s pharmaceutical sector also benefits from a Trade Related Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) waiver, which allows it to produce generic versions of patented drugs. However, with Bangladesh’s imminent graduation from the Least Developed Country (LDC) status in 2026, the industry is at a critical juncture where it must enhance its technological capabilities to stay competitive in the global market. This paper explores Bangladesh’s pharmaceutical industry’s preparedness to overcome these challenges. |
| Keywords: | Pharmaceutical Industry, Technological Readiness, LDC Graduation, R&D Investment, Bangladesh |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:report:62 |
| By: | Dimitri Sarkiss Tatoyan (CRJ-CCJ - Centre de recherches sur le Japon - CCJ - Chine, Corée, Japon - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité); Aleksandra Kobiljski (CRJ-CCJ - Centre de recherches sur le Japon - CCJ - Chine, Corée, Japon - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité); Hiroki Yamashita (Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris); Éric Mermet (TSE-R - TSE-R Toulouse School of Economics – Recherche - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | The 1445 Toll Register is the only surviving medieval customs register in Japan. As such, it is a precious window into Japan's medieval commercial revolution. While well studied using traditional methods, this article is the first attempt to submit this source to social network analysis (SNA) methods. It highlights the potential of statistical, spatial and network analysis, producing visualizations which nuance our understanding of the role of commercial agents in the medieval maritime trade. Starting from visualizing the overall network, this article probes into the legwork of a commodity network, much of which passed through the hands of the commercial agents. Our analysis also reveals that a group of 32 actors, who in the register appear to have been principally commercial agents, were in fact also shipmasters. A community detection method allows us to open up new avenues of understanding maritime trade clusters, while geospatial data visualization point to a historically irregular absence which requires further research. |
| Keywords: | medieval studies, 15th century, medieval Japan, maritime trade, commerical agents, shipmasters, commodification |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04870442 |
| By: | Fahmida Khatun; Syed Yusuf Saadat; Anika Ferdous Richi; Anisha Ushrat Aurchi |
| Abstract: | The pharmaceutical industry of Bangladesh is one of the most technologically advanced sectors in the country, contributing significantly to domestic healthcare and exports. Despite its strengths, the industry faces technological limitations, particularly in producing active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and investing in research and development (R&D). Bangladesh’s pharmaceutical sector also benefits from a Trade Related Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) waiver, which allows it to produce generic versions of patented drugs. However, with Bangladesh’s imminent graduation from the Least Developed Country (LDC) status in 2026, the industry is at a critical juncture where it must enhance its technological capabilities to stay competitive in the global market. This paper explores Bangladesh’s pharmaceutical industry’s preparedness to overcome these challenges. |
| Keywords: | Pharmaceutical Industry, Technological Readiness, LDC Graduation, R&D Investment, Bangladesh |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:report:63 |
| By: | Hasna Mrani Alaoui (UIT - Faculty of economics and management University Ibn Tofail of Kenitra, Morocco); Aziz Bensbahou (UIT - Faculty of economics and management University Ibn Tofail of Kenitra, Morocco) |
| Abstract: | Abstract The main objective of this contribution is to estimate empirically the long-run relationship and short-run dynamics between the level of TFP in Morocco and some factors that may affect it. We focus on human capital, participation in global value chains, the quality of institutions and the budget deficit. We use as an econometric tool an ARDL bound testing approach combined with the Toda-Yamamoto test to study causality. Our research shows that the effects of these variables vary between the short and long term. In the short term, the impact of human capital and institutions is negative, the variable participation in global value chains has no instantaneous effect on TFP growth and the variable that captures macroeconomic stability, i.e. public budget deficit has an insignificant negative impact. In the long term, the effects of human capital accumulation on TFP growth is positive. The quality of institutions has a positive impact on productivity. Differently with what we observed in the short-term, participation in global value chains has a negative impact on TFP. Analysis of the impulse response function yields the following results. A shock to human capital results in an immediate increase in TFP, while a shock to the PVC variable results in an immediate drop in TFP. The immediate response of TFP to an impulse from the two variables INS and DB is negative, but becomes positive from the second year onwards. Key words: Total factor productivity, Participation in value chains, Human capital, Morocco, ARDL bound testing. |
| Keywords: | Total factor productivity, Participation in value chains, Human capital, Morocco, ARDL bound testing., Total factor productivity Participation in value chains Human capital Morocco ARDL bound testing, ARDL bound testing |
| Date: | 2024–12–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04828266 |
| By: | Mr. Rabah Arezki; Patrick A. Imam; Mr. Kangni R Kpodar |
| Abstract: | Countries facing commodity (net) export price shocks tend to implement fiscal rules and to financially close their economies, demonstrating “macroeconomic prudence”. These effects are (unsurprisingly) asymmetric between import and export price shocks. The impact of commodity (net) export prices on macroeconomic institutions is influenced by the intensity of shocks and income levels of the countries, with higher-income countries driving the main results. These findings remain robust across various checks, including different estimators and additional control and dependent variables. These findings suggest that macroeconomic institutions are reactive to terms of trade shocks stemming from commodity price fluctuations. |
| Keywords: | Commodity prices; macroeconomic institutions; natural resources; resource curse |
| Date: | 2025–01–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/015 |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes the current state of the Russian economy, which is characterized by a complex interplay of overheating, inflationary pressures, and the impact of international sanctions. Despite moderate GDP growth and low unemployment, the economy faces significant vulnerabilities, including rising inflation, declining investment activity, and a depreciating ruble. The Central Bank of Russia’s policy of maintaining high interest rates, intended to stabilize the currency and control inflation, has inadvertently constrained economic growth and heightened uncertainty for businesses. These challenges are further exacerbated by shifts in foreign trade dynamics, with declining exports and imports reducing the balance of payments surplus. Western-imposed sanctions continue to target Russia’s energy sector, implementing measures such as oil price caps and restrictions on Gazprombank. While these sanctions aim to undermine the Russian economy, previous efforts at localization have partially mitigated their impact, allowing the country to sustain energy revenue streams. Nevertheless, the prioritization of military expenditures, surpassing budgetary allocations for social policies, healthcare, and education, risks destabilizing public finances and undermining social commitments. The interaction of geopolitical tensions, energy revenues, and evolving sanctions will play a decisive role in shaping Russia’s economic future. This study offers a comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic indicators, trade dynamics, and fiscal imbalances, providing valuable insights into the uncertainties facing the Russian economy. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, Russian ruble, inflationary pressures, sanctions, Central Bank of Russia, energy sector, fiscal policy, trade dynamics, macroeconomic indicators, geopolitical tensions |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:309044 |
| By: | Lehdonvirta, Vili; Wu, Boxi; Hawkins, Zoe |
| Abstract: | U.S. and Chinese technology companies dominate digital networks. What explains the extent to which third countries attach to U.S. versus Chinese network hubs? The answer matters, because both governments have demonstrated the ability to “weaponize” their hubs to advance their security interests. We synthesize three hypothetical explanations for third countries' network hub attachment from previous qualitative literature: 1) network hub attachment is a product of economic forces; 2) network hub attachment is determined by rivaling great powers coaxing and coercing third countries to attach to their hubs over their rival’s; and 3) network hub attachment results from third-country governments’ strategic policy choices. In the first quantitative study on the topic, we assess these explanations with original data on the global geography of U.S. and Chinese -owned hyperscale cloud infrastructures. Based on the findings, we argue that third countries or “spoke states” enjoy agency in bipolar networks which they did not have in unipolar networks, and that their strategic interests in combination with economic forces shape the topology of geographically distributed bipolar networks more so than great-power rivalry. Our model contributes to the weaponized interdependence framework which predicted the rise of alternative hubs but lacked a model of bipolar network topology. |
| Date: | 2025–01–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:6s7dn |
| By: | Henderson, Richard; Gastelle, Jesse; Caffarelli, Peter |
| Abstract: | This report provides a breakout by mode of corn, wheat, soybeans, sorghum, and barley movements to either domestic markets or U.S. ports for export between 1984 and 2022. It is the fourteenth update of an initial modal share study completed in 1992. The purpose of this series of reports is to provide the latest information about changes and trends in the relative competitiveness and efficiency among the different transportation modes in moving grain. Estimates of the tonnages (and shares) of grain railed, barged, and trucked are developed from a variety of secondary sources. This data can be used to identify trends and implications on transportation from factors, such as changes in production volumes and commodity mix, as well as changes in the relative demand for U.S. grain for domestic purposes versus export. Tables included: Tonnages of U.S. Grains Transported, by Type of Crop and Type of Movement, 2005-2022 --- Tonnages and Modal Shares for U.S. Corn, 2005–2022 --- Tonnages and Modal Shares for U.S. Wheat, 2005-2022 --- Tonnages and Modal Shares for U.S. Soybeans, 2005-2022 --- Tonnages and Modal Shares for U.S. Sorghum, 2005-2022 --- Tonnages and Modal Shares for U.S. Barley, 2005-2022. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade, Marketing, Productivity Analysis, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uamstr:349143 |
| By: | Eric BOND; HOANG Trang; MA Yan; MAKIOKA Ryo |
| Abstract: | The paper studies the effect of R&D investments by parent multinational corporations (MNC) and their affiliates on the decisions of those affiliates to purchase intermediate inputs across different locations. We first develop a theoretical model of R&D and sourcing decisions to provide potential mechanisms and to guide our empirical analysis. Our fixed-effects regression results imply that, first, higher affiliate R&D expenditures are associated with a higher share of the affiliate’s purchases from local firms. Second, higher R&D expenditures by affiliates in other countries (i.e., those under the same parent firm but located in a different foreign country) are associated with a higher share of affiliate purchases from those countries. Third, we find that the affiliate’s R&D expenditures are negatively correlated with the purchase share from the parent home country and from the parent firm. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25007 |
| By: | Ranaldi, Marco |
| Abstract: | This article studies the global distributions of capital and labor incomes among individuals in 2000 and 2016. By constructing a novel database covering approximately 80% of the global output and 60% of the world population, two major findings stand out. First, the world underwent an important process of capitalization. The share of world individuals with positive capital income rose from 20% to 32%. Second, the global middle class benefited the most, in relative terms, from such a capitalization process, with China being the main driver of this global trend. The findings of this paper are robust to changes in the income definition, top-income and functional income distribution adjustments. The global composition of capital and labor incomes is more equal today than it was twenty years ago. |
| Keywords: | capital and labor; compositional inequality; global inequality |
| JEL: | J1 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126608 |
| By: | Karim El Aynaoui; Hinh Dinh |
| Abstract: | This Paper was originally published on geopolitique.eu In an era of unprecedented global interconnectedness, developing countries face an increasingly complex and often hostile economic landscape. This landscape is shaped by three main groups of policy constraints. First, the rise among major powers of protectionist tendencies has made the global environment more challenging, particularly as advanced economies increasingly turn to industrial policies to achieve specific economic objectives, and intensifying geopolitical rivalries lead to restructuring of global value chains and regrouping of countries into economic blocs. Second, at a time when demand for government services is at an all-time high, the macroeconomic policy space in developing countries has become significantly constrained, leaving little room for maneuver. A series of crises—from the Global Financial Crisis to COVID-19 to commodity price shocks—has drained government budgetary resources. Third, rapid technological advances are disruptive, rendering traditional policy reforms for growth and structural transformation outdated, and thus necessitating policy experimentation in new, uncharted areas. These three groups of policy constraints have created a perfect storm of challenges for developing countries. This paper examines the multifaceted impact of these global shifts on the economic policy options available to developing countries. Currently, these countries face the challenge of operating without a clear and coherent framework for their development policies and strategies. This has led to a paradigm shift characterized by a landscape where ‘every country is for itself, ’ resulting in the absence of clear policy objectives or instruments to navigate this new reality. Such an approach is unsustainable and poses significant risks to global economic stability and inclusive development. This paper proposes an alternative: a robust, nuanced, and tailored economic policy framework that addresses the unique challenges of developing countries while leveraging their inherent strengths and potential. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:rpnn_84 |
| By: | Adrien Bilal; Diego R. Känzig |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that unilateral decarbonization pays for itself in large economies. We estimate economic damages from global temperature shocks and combine them with a climate-economy model to construct Domestic Costs of Carbon: $226 per ton for the United States and $216 per ton for the European Union. When compared to marginal abatement costs, these values imply over 80% unilateral decarbonization for both economies, an order of magnitude larger than under conventional damages estimated based on local temperature. |
| JEL: | E01 E23 F18 O44 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33364 |
| By: | Mr. Augusto Azael Pérez Azcárraga; José M García-Sanjinés; Rossana A San Juan; Selvin A Lemus; Philip R Wood; Mr. Robert Kokoli |
| Abstract: | This technical note offers practical guidance to senior managers and technical staff in Customs administrations for developing a Compliance Improvement Plan (CIP) using an Integrated Risk Management (IRM) approach. It clearly outlines the components of a CIP based on IRM, explains what it entails for a Customs administration, and how to develop it step-by-step. Additionally, it underscores the importance of identifying and implementing tailored treatment measures for various trader segments, which is crucial for enhancing compliance levels. Furthermore, it emphasizes the need to identify key vulnerabilities within processes that may lead to the realization of risks, proposing appropriate strategies to address them. The note also highlights other critical factors that must be considered to ensure the effective implementation of a CIP. |
| Keywords: | Customs Administrations; risk management; integrated risk management; transactional risk management; customs compliance; compliance improvement plan; trade facilitation; segmentation; treatment measures; compliance indicators; compliance risks; institutional risk; governance; core customs processes; global risk index |
| Date: | 2025–01–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imftnm:2025/002 |
| By: | Olaniran, Abeeb; Akanni, Lateef; Salisu, Afees |
| Abstract: | We explore the role of fear associated with migration in predicting exchange rate volatility of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom within the context of the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) mixed-data-sampling (MIDAS) framework using United States dollar (USD) as the reference currency. While we adopt the quarterly Migration Fear Index and daily exchange rate of Euro (for France and Germany) and GBP (for the UK) to USD for the nexus between migration anxiety and exchange rate volatility, we equally augment our model with Migration Policy Uncertainty (MPU) to examine the joint predictability of the two migration fears proxies on exchange rate volatility. We conduct an empirical analysis that covers the full sample period which is further partitioned into pre- and post-GFC periods to see if the nexus is sensitive to crises periods. We find evidence of migration fears predicting exchange rate volatility of the G-3 country considered, given the statistical significance of our model’s slope coefficient. Although the influence of migration fears on the strengths of the euro and pounds relative to the USD differ, as migration fear causes the former to depreciate and the latter to appreciate, both currencies exhibit high volatility persistence during the period under scrutiny. Our findings have implications for policy-makers on whose shoulders the responsibility of exchange rate management falls. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate, Migration, Fear, GARCH-MIDAS |
| JEL: | J6 |
| Date: | 2024–11–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123196 |
| By: | Dai, C.; Pollitt, M. G. |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses China's move from local carbon markets (CL-ETS) to a national carbon market (CN-ETS). We explore the challenge of expanding the CN-ETS to include sectors already covered in some of the CL-ETSs. We do this in three ways. First, through a systematic review of relevant policy documents and market data, the study analyzes the background and development process of the CN-ETS. Second, in-depth interviews with 22 industry experts are conducted to gather insights from various stakeholders regarding industry expansion and data quality issues, forming a multidimensional understanding of the market's status. Finally, quantitative analysis methods are used to statistically analyze the collected data and explore the impact of different factors on the development of the CN-ETS. We find that the CN-ETS currently faces challenges in industry expansion, such as insufficient data quality and complex accounting, which directly affect the market's effective operation. Experts differ in their views on the possible speed of expansion. However, we identify 2034 as a crucial date for the achievement of a comprehensive strengthening of the CN-ETS, in the light of the implementation of the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). |
| Keywords: | Emission Trading System (ETS), Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), China's national Emissions Trading System (CN-ETS), China's local Emissions Trading System (CL-ETS) |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2460 |
| By: | Khondaker Golam Moazzem; Mashfiq Ahasan Hridoy; Tamim Ahmed |
| Abstract: | This insightful study identifies barriers hindering Chinese overseas investment in the renewable energy sector of Bangladesh, from currency volatility and bureaucratic hurdles to skill shortages and regulatory unpredictability. By comparing Bangladesh’s fiscal tools with China’s robust investment strategies, it identifies actionable solutions to bridge the gaps and attract substantial global funding. |
| Keywords: | Renewable Energy, Chinese Overseas Investment, Regulatory Uncertainty, Bureaucratic Hurdles, Skill Shortages, Bangladesh |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:report:60 |
| By: | Hany Abdel-Latif; Ms. Adina Popescu |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the global economic spillovers emanating from G20 emerging markets (G20-EMs), with a particular emphasis on the comparative influence of China. Employing a Bayesian Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, we assess the impacts of both demand-side and supply-side shocks across 63 countries, capturing the nuanced dynamics of global economic interactions. Our findings reveal that China's contribution to global economic spillovers significantly overshadows that of other G20-EMs. Specifically, China's domestic shocks have significantly larger and more pervasive spillover effects on global GDP, inflation and commodity prices compared to shocks from other G20-EMs. In contrast, spillovers from other G20-EMs are more regionally contained with modest global impacts. The study underscores China's outsized role in shaping global economic dynamics and the limited capacity of other G20-EMs to mitigate any potential negative implications from China's economic slowdown in the near term. |
| Keywords: | Emerging Economies; Growth Spillover; Global transmission; GVAR model |
| Date: | 2025–01–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/027 |
| By: | Michal Kobielarz |
| Abstract: | The dwindling popularity of globalization and international cooperation poses the issue of exiting an international union. An individually made exit decision is inefficient, as it neglects the losses of the other members. Fiscal transfers inside the union eliminate socially inefficient exits and restore the first-best outcome. When fiscal transfers are impossible, the union benefits from introducing exit costs during the formation process. Those costs are Pareto-optimal despite being a deadweight loss. If the union cannot fully commit to imposing exit costs ex post, it can use the anticipation of further exit decisions to increase its credibility. The paper also explores the scope for post-exit cooperation between the exiting country and the union. I show that both parties prefer a soft exit over a no-deal exit. However, the union might be reluctant to agree to a deal if it forms a precedent for the other union members. The model sheds light on Brexit and the UK-EU negotiations but also applies to other international unions. |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:ceswps:746860 |
| By: | Joseph Ikechukwu Uduji (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Nduka Vitalis Elda Okolo-Obasi (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Joy Ukamaka Uduji (udujijoyukamaka@gmail.com) |
| Abstract: | Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to critically examine the multinational oil companies’ (MOCs) corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiatives in Nigeria. Its special focus is to investigate the impact of the global memorandum of understanding (GMoU) on gender in the facets of palm oil value chain in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach – This paper adopts an explanatory research design using both descriptive and inferential statistics to answer the four research questions. We generated cross-sectional primary data from a sample of 1200 women selected from the nine states of Niger Delta region using multiple sampling techniques. Findings - Results from the estimation of a logit model and use of propensity score matching to determine the mean difference between variables in the treatment and control show that significant efforts have been made by the MOCs’ through their CSR in the areas that will help the women compete favourably in the oil palm value chain. Research limitations/implications – This study implies that MOCs’ CSR interventions that enhanced women acquisition of improved mechanised meals, accompanied by awareness creation and demonstration of value of improved processing technologies and practices to female processors will lift many women out of poverty in the Niger Delta. Social implications – This implies that fostering gender access to credit through GMoU interventions will improve extraction efficiency of female primary processors and enhance linkages between women producers/processors and large mills in palm oil value chain deliveries in the Niger Delta. Originality/value – This research contributes to gender debate in the agricultural value chain from a CSR perspective in developing countries and rationale for demand for social projects by host communities. It concludes that business has an obligation to help in solving problems of public concern. |
| Keywords: | Gender dynamics, palm oil value chain, corporate social responsibility, multinational oil companies, sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aak:wpaper:24/012 |