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on International Trade |
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Issue of 2026–08–31
sixteen papers chosen by Nicola Daniele Coniglio, Università degli Studi di Bari “Aldo Moro” |
| By: | Emek Basker; Fariha Kamal |
| Abstract: | National-security restrictions on exports constrain exporters' market access, but empirical evidence on their domestic costs is limited. We leverage data on export transactions that includes the product classifications used to administer U.S. export controls to document a doubling in the share of U.S. exports subject to controls between 2010 and 2024 and a skewed firm-size distribution among firms that export controlled products. We then exploit the 2014 U.S. restriction on exports to Russia as a natural experiment to examine the impact of export controls on firm-level outcomes. These controls not only reduced U.S. firms' probability of exporting targeted goods to Russia but also had indirect effects: they reduced affected firms' exports of other products and to other destinations and lowered affected firms' average payroll. Our findings imply that the domestic costs of export controls extend beyond direct restrictions. |
| Keywords: | Sanctions, Export Controls, U.S.-Russia Trade |
| JEL: | F51 F13 F14 F23 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:26-50 |
| By: | David J. Kuenzel (Department of Economics, Wesleyan University) |
| Abstract: | Temporary trade barriers (TTBs) in the form of antidumping, countervailing and safeguard duties are the most commonly used policy instruments to counteract surges in imports. Using a theory-consistent structural gravity model, this paper investigates for the first time at the product level (HS 6-digit) how the trade effects of these measures vary over their entire life cycle. Employing a cross-country dataset over the period 1995 to 2023, I find that product-level imports from exporters targeted with TTBs are significantly elevated during the pre-investigation period and remain so during the WTO-required investigation to justify these duties. When imposed, TTB tariffs lower imports on average by 24 percent while final duties are in place, but there are only modest negative effects on imports during the preliminary duty phase. The negative import effects intensify with the duration of the final duties. Average price increases are significant but modest during the final duty phase, indicating a limited effectiveness of TTBs to provide protection in the form of higher profit opportunities for import-competing industries. While focusing on TTBs, the estimates in this paper offer detailed insights on how tariff changes more generally affect the trading behavior and market conditions for domestic and foreign firms. |
| Keywords: | Temporary Trade Barriers, Tariffs, Trade, Gravity |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wes:weswpa:2026-009 |
| By: | Christian Lessmann; Zhixiao Yao |
| Abstract: | This paper studies whether access to the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) increases trade and through which margin. Using newly constructed ISO access data in a domestic-inclusive structural gravity framework for 185 trading partners from 1980 to 2016, the paper shows that ISO access increases international trade relative to domestic trade. Trade involving one ISO access country is about 63 percent higher than trade between countries without ISO access, while trade between two ISO access countries is about 95 percent higher. The effects are more visible for less developed countries and are stronger when the ISO access country is the exporter. Evidence on ISO certification uptake is consistent with an exporter-side standardization and certification-capacity channel. The paper identifies ISO access as an upstream quality infrastructure channel of trade. The findings imply that standardization and certification capacity can help countries overcome non-tariff barriers and upgrade exports. |
| Keywords: | ISO access, gravity, international trade |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F53 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12923 |
| By: | Yoto V. Yotov (School of Economics, Drexel University and Center for Global Policy Analysis (CGPA)); Gabriel Felbermayr (Vienna University of Economics and Business and Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO)); Heider Kariem (Vienna University of Economics and Business and Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO)); Aleksandra Kirilakha (School of Economics, Drexel University); Ohyun Kwon (University of Pennsylvania and Center for Global Policy Analysis (CGPA)); Constantinos Syropoulos (School of Economics, Drexel University and Center for Global Policy Analysis (CGPA)); Erdal Yalcin (HTWG Konstanz University of Applied Sciences) |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of financial sanctions on international trade. To pursue this objective, we assemble new data that distinguish between six types of financial sanctions across all countries in the world over the period 1950-2025. Combining these data with aggregate and disaggregated trade data in a structural gravity framework, we find that financial sanctions can exert substantial adverse effects on trade. However, these effects are highly heterogeneous across sectors, across sanction cases, and, most importantly, across the different types of financial sanctions in our data. Payment restrictions are most effective in eliminating trade between senders and targets. Unlike sanctions on goods, they also significantly reduce trade between targets and third countries. |
| Keywords: | Financial sanctions; Payment restrictions; International trade; The Global Sanctions Data Base (GSDB) |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F51 F52 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202614 |
| By: | Gabriel Felbermayr (Vienna University of Economics and Business and Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO)); Ohyun Kwon (University of Pennsylvania and Center for Global Policy Analysis (CGPA)); Constantinos Syropoulos (School of Economics, Drexel University and Center for Global Policy Analysis (CGPA)); Yoto V. Yotov (School of Economics, Drexel University and Center for Global Policy Analysis (CGPA)) |
| Abstract: | Using established econometric techniques and disaggregated data that include intra-national trade flows, we estimate the direct and extraterritorial effects of complete trade sanctions on international trade. Across sectors, the direct effects of complete trade sanctions are negative, as expected. However, their extraterritorial effects are predominantly positive, working in the opposite direction of the direct effects. At the extreme, the extraterritorial effects of complete trade sanctions may fully offset their direct effects and lead to a perverse scenario in which the target's overall trade rises in the aftermath of sanctions. |
| Keywords: | Trade sanctions; Trade creation; Trade diversion; Third-country effects; Sanctions busting |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F51 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202615 |
| By: | Mo, Taejun; Nino, Gustavo; Ridley, William |
| Abstract: | Disruptions to supply chain transportation networks, such as natural disasters, can generate substantial economic costs. This paper combines data on more than 1, 200 road-related landslides with seven years of weekly domestic trade data in Colombia to estimate the effects of transportation network disruptions on domestic trade and welfare. Using a structural gravity framework, we show that landslides reduce trade by increasing transport frictions. However, their welfare effects are not uniform and disruptions reallocate trade across regions, generating both winners and losers. Our results show that regions with stronger export orientation experience welfare gains when landslides occur, while regions more dependent on imports experience welfare losses. These effects reflect both direct bilateral impacts and indirect multilateral adjustments across the domestic trade network. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404669 |
| By: | Felix Montag |
| Abstract: | Current enforcement practice does not consider how mergers alter the merging parties' incentives to petition for trade protection. I document mergers between domestic producers across jurisdictions that are followed by tariff petitions. I develop a model to characterize the trade-policy channel of mergers. Theoretically, a domestic merger raises the profitability of tariffs when offshoring is unavailable; once offshoring is possible, the effect becomes ambiguous. I apply this framework to a merger between domestic producers in the U.S. appliance industry. Empirically, I find that when import competition is weak, the merging parties prefer to lower their own costs through offshoring; when import competition is strong, the merger makes it more profitable for them to raise their foreign rivals' costs through tariffs. The resulting consumer harm is comparable in magnitude to the direct market-power effect. A hypothetical cross-border merger reduces the profitability of tariffs in this market. |
| Keywords: | competition, lobbying, tariffs, protectionism, mergers |
| JEL: | F13 L13 L41 D72 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12880 |
| By: | Jones, Kyle; Palmou, Christina |
| Abstract: | Trade matters. There is indisputable evidence across countries that firms that participate in international markets are more productive. But literature is less clear as to why. What are the mechanisms driving the trade-productivity premia observed in the data? To investigate this, we use an innovative dataset originally developed by Wales et al. (2018), which combines administrative data on trade in goods with survey data on firm labour productivity. We extend this dataset to include trade in services and updated trade in goods information between 2017 and 2022. This dataset, covering the 2005 to 2022 period, allows us to build the most comprehensive picture of British traders and to, not only estimate the most up-to-date relationship between trade and productivity but also to disentangle the role of self-selection of productive firms into exporting, from other causal impacts of trade on productivity via, for instance, technological upgrading or learning-by-doing. |
| Keywords: | trade; productivity; administrative data; learning-by-exporting |
| JEL: | F1 O3 O4 |
| Date: | 2025–08–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eoe:escoed:escoe-dp-2025-10 |
| By: | Delina E. Agnosteva (Pennsylvania State University); Constantinos Syropoulos (School of Economics, Drexel University and Center for Global Policy Analysis (CGPA)); Yoto V. Yotov (School of Economics, Drexel University and Center for Global Policy Analysis (CGPA)) |
| Abstract: | We characterize collusive pricing in an international cartel spanning two host countries and pooling incentive constraints across markets, under general demand restricted only by a mild curvature condition that admits constant elasticity. Under domestic monopoly, fragmentation can weaken collusion and raise host welfare, whereas richer profit opportunities abroad strengthen collusion and may lower it; hosts prefer moderate barriers to either free trade or complete separation. Under domestic competition both results reverse. Whether fragmentation disciplines cartels thus depends on market structure in their home countries. Since collusion requires no trade between members, prices rather than trade flows carry the identifying information. |
| Keywords: | Fragmentation; Oligopoly; Multimarket interactions; Cartel discipline; Collusive pricing; Trade costs; Domestic market structure |
| JEL: | D43 F10 F12 F13 F15 L12 L13 L41 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202617 |
| By: | Rutledge, Zach; Mayorga, Joaquin |
| Abstract: | China’s accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001 reshaped global trade, reducing U.S. demand for Mexican manufactured goods and weakening Mexico’s manufacturing employment. This study estimates how this trade-induced decline affected migration and employment decisions among rural Mexicans. Using individual-level panel data from the Mexican National Rural Household Survey (ENHRUM) and a long-difference framework, we instrument manufacturing employment with regional exposure to Chinese import competition. Results show that a 10-percentage-point decline in manufacturing employment increased the probability of U.S. migration by 24 percentage points and U.S. nonagricultural employment by 17 points, with no significant effects on agricultural employment. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404603 |
| By: | Benny Kleinman; Ernest Liu; Stephen J. Redding |
| Abstract: | The existence of aggregate welfare gains from trade is one of the classic insights from international economics. However, these conventional welfare gains are static, in the sense that they take existing factor supplies and production technologies at a point in time as given. Recent research has highlighted dynamic effects of trade through endogenous factor accumulation and technological innovation over time, although there remains less consensus about the quantitative magnitude of these dynamic effects than about their static counterparts. Key insights from this research are that short-run and long-run responses to trade liberalization differ; capital accumulation amplifies the impact of international trade shocks; trade can facilitate technology adoption and the diffusion of ideas by changing the composition of suppliers; effects on lifetime welfare differ substantially from those on steady-state welfare, once transition dynamics are taken into account; and market failures can either magnify the overall welfare gains from trade or rationalize activist trade and industrial policies. |
| JEL: | F14 F15 F50 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35595 |
| By: | Francesco Ferrante; Andrea Prestipino; Andrea Raffo; Michael E. Waugh |
| Abstract: | U.S. tariff rates in 2025 rose to levels not seen since the Great Depression, yet imports increased. To account for the missing trade collapse, we develop an open-economy New Keynesian model with tariff heterogeneity, inventories, and shocks to investment that capture the AI-driven boom. The model matches the untargeted paths of imports, output, and inflation; we use it to decompose the effects of tariffs and the investment boom. Absent the investment boom, imports would have fallen by 10 percent and activity would have contracted by 0.7 percent. The effects of tariffs depend on which goods are tariffed: tariffs on consumption and intermediates act like shocks to supply; tariffs on capital goods act like shocks to demand. The concentration of the 2025 tariff increases on consumption goods and the relative sparing of capital goods limited the damage to output while amplifying the inflationary impulse. |
| JEL: | E12 E52 F13 F41 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35630 |
| By: | Alberto Chong (Department of Economics, Georgia State University and Department of Economics, Universidad del Pacifico) |
| Abstract: | Does deeper trade integration advance or undermine women's civil liberties, their freedom of movement, property rights, freedom from forced labor, and access to justice? Trade can raise women's civil standing by expanding female employment and bargaining power, by importing legal commitments through labor and dispute-settlement chapters, and through rule-of-law spillovers. However, it can erode that standing through coercive export-sector labor practices, competitive deregulation, and the displacement of women from protected sectors. We estimate the effect of entering a free trade agreement with the United States on women's civil liberties for all the countries with bilateral agreements drawing on an annual panel of 182 countries observed from 1970 to 2025. When applying a staggered difference-in-differences estimator with common support we find a decline of roughly five percent of a cross-country standard deviation, which is robust to a broad battery of empirical tests. Our results caution against the optimistic view that trade agreements diffuse women's rights. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper2626 |
| By: | Philipp Barteska; Oliver Kim; Nathan Lane; Seung Joo Lee |
| Abstract: | How did geopolitics shape East Asia's economic development? We find that U.S. military procurement during the Vietnam War — a shock which peaked at nearly 3% of South Korean GDP, rivaling the Marshall Plan — catalyzed Korea's export-led industrialization. We construct a new firm-level dataset that matches Korean export records with U.S. procurement contracts awarded between 1965 and 1974 to estimate the causal impact of winning a contract on export performance. A firm winning its first contract raises its likelihood of exporting by 14.7 percentage points and its export value by 40%. Treated firms are more likely to expand into third-country markets and export manufacturing products — and these gains are unlikely to come from business stealing. Finally, we find that U.S. procurement and domestic industrial policy were likely complementary. Our findings reveal a neglected channel through which Cold War geopolitics shaped the East Asian economic miracle. |
| Keywords: | export promotion, firm development, East Asian Miracle, procurement, geoeconomics |
| JEL: | F14 F35 O14 H56 N45 O25 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12926 |
| By: | Sebastien Bradley (School of Economics, Drexel University and Center for Global Policy Analysis (CGPA)); Mian Dai (School of Economics, Drexel University); Blaize Giangiulio (School of Economics, Drexel University and Center for Global Policy Analysis (CGPA)); Yoto V. Yotov (School of Economics, Drexel University and Center for Global Policy Analysis (CGPA)) |
| Abstract: | We study the spillover effects of the 2025 "Liberation Day" automotive tariffs on the untaxed U.S. used-car market. Using over eight million weekly listings and a VIN-based crosswalk identifying each vehicle's country of assembly, we document an immediate and persistent 0.2-0.6% increase in the prices of foreign-brand used vehicles relative to domestic-brand vehicles. The effect is concentrated among the newest vehicles - the closest substitutes for new cars - consistent with demand-side substitution. We also find that foreign-brand vehicles produced in the U.S. appreciate as much as those assembled abroad, suggesting that the perceived foreignness of used vehicles may be largely independent of true production location. Neglecting tariff pass-through to untaxed product substitutes understates overall consumer incidence. |
| Keywords: | Tariffs; Tariff incidence; Spillover effects; Used cars; Trade policy |
| JEL: | F13 F14 L62 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202616 |
| By: | Schwarzbauer, Wolfgang; Gillesberger, Michael; Perschke, Simon |
| Abstract: | Regional economic resilience, the capacity of regions to absorb and recover from external shocks, has gained renewed attention in light of recent crises. This paper examines how different forms of economic diversity shaped the resilience of European regions during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/09. We distinguish between gross export diversification, value-added export diversification, and domestic sectoral diversity, thereby capturing both external and internal dimensions of economic structure. Our results show that regions with more diversified industrial structures and value-added export linkages experience significantly smaller output losses during the initial downturn. In contrast, the recovery phase is primarily driven by specialization in industrial activities and regional innovation capacity, which facilitate faster postcrisis adjustment. These findings remain robust when accounting for spatial spillovers across regions. Combining gross and value-added trade measures with regional industrial structures, this study provides novel evidence on the distinct channels through which diversity affects resilience. The results highlight a trade-off between short-term shock absorption and the speed of recovery, with important implications for regional development strategies and crisis preparedness. |
| Abstract: | Wirtschaftliche Krisen wirken sich sehr unterschiedlich auf Regionen aus. Während einige Regionen starke Einbrüche verzeichnen, zeigen andere eine höhere Widerstandsfähigkeit und erholen sich schneller. Die Ursachen dieser Unterschiede sind insbesondere vor dem Hintergrund jüngster globaler Krisen von wachsender Bedeutung. Diese Studie untersucht, wie verschiedene Formen wirtschaftlicher Diversifikation die Resilienz europäischer Regionen während der globalen Finanzkrise 2008/09 beeinflusst haben. Dabei unterscheiden wir zwischen Branchen-Diversifikation, Exportdiversifikation und der Einbindung in globale Wertschöpfungsketten. So können sowohl interne Wirtschaftsstrukturen als auch externe Handelsverflechtungen berücksichtigt werden. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Regionen mit einer breiteren Branchen-Basis besser gegen wirtschaftliche Schocks geschützt sind. Eine diversifizierte Wirtschaftsstruktur und stärkere Verflechtungen entlang der Wertschöpfungsketten tragen dazu bei, negative Auswirkungen abzufedern und Produktionsrückgänge zu begrenzen. Dagegen sind stark spezialisierte Regionen - insbesondere in der Produktion - stärker von Einbrüchen der externen Nachfrage betroffen. Dieser Stabilisierungsvorteil geht jedoch mit einem Zielkonflikt einher. Diversifikation erleichtert zwar die Abfederung von Krisen, führt aber nicht automatisch zu einer schnelleren Erholung. Vielmehr sind es spezialisierte Regionen - insbesondere geprägt durch industrielle Produktion - sowie eine hohe Innovationsfähigkeit, die eine raschere Anpassung und Erholung erfahren. Darüber hinaus zeigt die Analyse die Bedeutung räumlicher Verflechtungen. Wirtschaftliche Schocks und Erholungsprozesse verbreiten sich über regionale Produktionsnetzwerke, bleiben jedoch weitgehend innerhalb nationaler Grenzen. Dies unterstreicht die Rolle institutioneller und wirtschaftspolitischer Rahmenbedingungen auf nationaler Ebene. Insgesamt weisen die Ergebnisse auf einen grundlegenden Zielkonflikt hin: Diversifikation erhöht die Stabilität in Krisenzeiten, während Spezialisierung eine schnellere Erholung begünstigt. Daraus ergeben sich wichtige Implikationen für die regionale Wirtschaftspolitik, da keine einheitliche Strategie zur Förderung von Resilienz ableitbar ist. |
| Keywords: | regional economics, economic resilience, export diversification, multi-regional input-output model, global value chains, Financial Crisis 2008 |
| JEL: | R11 R15 F15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ecoarp:342493 |