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on International Trade |
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Issue of 2025–05–26
28 papers chosen by Nicola Daniele Coniglio, Università degli Studi di Bari “Aldo Moro” |
| By: | Hammed Adededji Adetokunbo; Blaise Gnimassoun; Anthony Simpasa |
| Abstract: | Contrary to popular belief, the majority of Africans who leave their country remain in Africa and contribute to shaping the economic performance of the continent. This paper investigates the effects of intra-African immigration on the current account in African countries over the past thirty years. To this end, we use a panel data approach and a gravity-based 2SLS estimation strategy to overcome the potential endogeneity bias. We find that intra-African immigration has a positive, strong and robust impact on the current account of African countries. In particular, intra-African immigration contributes to significantly improve the trade balance of African countries, including inside and outside the continent. Further investigations reveal that the strengthening of intra-African trade or the reduction of trade extroversion as well as the demographic vitality favoured by intra-African immigration are the mechanisms behind these results. Thus, full implementation of the African Union protocol on free movement of people between countries can deepen regional integration and help reduce structural current account deficits that countries face. |
| Keywords: | international migration, current account, trade, Africa. |
| JEL: | F14 F22 F32 O55 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2025-03 |
| By: | Maximiliano Dvorkin; Cassandra Marks |
| Abstract: | An analysis of the 2018-19 tariff hikes on Chinese imports suggests they affected import patterns and prices of the kind of goods subject to the duties. |
| Keywords: | tariffs; imports; trade; China |
| Date: | 2025–05–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:100000 |
| By: | Zongwu Cai (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA); Jinyan Li (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the indirect effects of the ongoing China-US trade war on trade balances, employing a modified mediation analysis that includes lagged mediators to enhance the accuracy of traditional models. By integrating these lagged variables, our approach can capture the temporal dynamics. Through a comprehensive econometric analysis on indirect effects bypassing some mediators, we disentangle the direct and indirect effects of trade policies, highlighting the distinct impacts across major regions involved in trade between the two nations. Our findings suggest that the trade war has produced asymmetric effects on the trade balances of China and the US, with notable regional variation. For China, positive indirect effects are observed across all mediators, where rerouted supply chains helped maintain export flows under tariff pressures. In contrast, the US benefits more directly from the trade war, with strong direct effects and minor indirect effects across multiple regions. The inclusion of lagged mediators reveals the gradual adjustment of trade patterns over time, offering a more comprehensive perspective on how the trade war has reshaped global trade dynamics. |
| Keywords: | International trade, Trade friction, Mediation analysis, Indirect effects, Lagged mediators. |
| JEL: | C10 F51 F13 C54 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:202512 |
| By: | Angela Cheptea (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates how the overseas activity of multinational retailers (MRs) affects the global export patterns of host country firms. Recent empirical works testify that the entry of foreign retailers leads to a productivity upgrade in the domestic upstream sectors. Combined with the main result of the new international trade theory on firm heterogeneity, an increase in the export capacity of local firms should follow. The current paper establishes a connection between these empirically identified effects and the new new theory of international trade with heterogeneous firms and intermediaries. Two mechanisms are analysed. First, the higher productivity at the industry and firm level leads to an increase in the overall export capacity of local firms. Second, the expansion of transnational retail networks reinforces trade between host countries. |
| Keywords: | Export patterns, Intermediaries, Multinational retailers, Productivity gains, Transnational networks |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05043642 |
| By: | Thomas Klitgaard |
| Abstract: | The obvious answer to the question of why the United States runs a trade deficit is that its export sales have not kept up with its demand for imports. A less obvious answer is that the imbalance reflects a macroeconomic phenomenon. Using national accounting, one can show deficits are also due to a persistent shortfall in domestic saving that requires funds from abroad to finance domestic investment spending. Reducing the trade imbalance therefore requires both more exports relative to imports and a narrowing of the gap between saving and investment spending. |
| Keywords: | trade; exports; imports; current account; deficit; balance; saving; investments spending; trade policy; international; macroeconomics |
| JEL: | F4 |
| Date: | 2025–05–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:99992 |
| By: | Nicolas Gavoille (Latvijas Banka) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines firm-level responses to the large trade shock induced by the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing European Union sanctions. Using detailed administrative data from Latvia - a small, open economy with strong pre-war trade ties with Russia - I document the heterogeneous effects of the shock across firms with varying degrees of exposure. Employing a machine learning-based approach to determine a set of impacted firms and a difference-in-differences local projection method, the analysis shows that firms with lower initial exposure to Russia are the most likely to sever trade ties. Only a small set of firms, the most exposed to Russian trade, suffered significant losses in turnover, employment, and profitability, despite some trade reorientation towards CIS countries. Mere exposure to Russia emerges as the primary determinant of these patterns, whereas sanctions targeting specific goods do not play a direct role. These findings contribute to the broader literature on economic sanctions and trade policy by providing micro-level evidence on the adjustment mechanisms of European firms in response to geopolitical disruptions. |
| Keywords: | Sanctions, Trade shock, Firm behavior, Adjustment margins |
| JEL: | F14 F16 F61 |
| Date: | 2025–05–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ltv:wpaper:202503 |
| By: | Mattia Di Ubaldo (University of Sussex); Michael Gasiorek (University of Sussex); Barry Reilly (University of Sussex); Aldo Sandoval-Hernandez (Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada) |
| Abstract: | Regulatory requirements are an important determinant of production and thus trade patterns. The effects can be complex as the requirements with which firms and/or products have to comply can either hinder or stimulate international trade. We use machine learning and text-analysis tools on a core set of EU Regulations and Directives to construct a novel set of indices of EU ‘regulatory intensity’ at the HS 6-digit level along three dimensions: technical production requirements, compliance, and conformity assessment. We then test the responsiveness of EU imports from EU and non-EU countries to regulatory intensity by estimating a gravity model with a stringent set of fixed effects. Distinguishing between the areas of regulation is crucial to understand the its impacts on trade: higher production requirements stimulate EU imports, while higher compliance and conformity assessment requirements affect EU imports negatively, mainly from non-EU countries. The trade effects are driven by products characterised by higher complexity, and countries for which the EU is a less relevant export-destination. |
| Keywords: | Non-tariff Measures, EU Single Market, regulatory intensity, imports |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:0325 |
| By: | Mario Larch (University of Bayreuth); Serge Shikher (United States International Trade Commission); Yoto Yotov (School of Economics, Drexel University) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces Release 3 of the International Trade and Production Database for Estimation (ITPD-E-R03). ITPD-E-R03 covers the period 1986-2022 for 265 countries and 170 industries across four broad sectors: Agriculture, Mining and Energy, Manufacturing, and Services. The new release includes 3 additional years of data and more observations: 84.6 million, compared to 72.5 in Release 02 and 35.8 million in the original release. ITPD-E-R03 can be downloaded for free from the USITC's Gravity Portal at https://www.usitc.gov/data/gravity/itpde .htm. |
| Keywords: | International trade and production data, Domestic trade data, The gravity models of trade. |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F16 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202524 |
| By: | Bracco, Jessica; Brambilla, Irene; Cerimelo, Manuela; César, Andrés; Falcone, Guillermo |
| Abstract: | This paper studies concentration and market power in Chile and Colombia and the role that globalization and automation have had in shaping these two phenomena. Using panels of firm surveys, we compute firm-level markups and industry-level concentration measures. Applying a difference in differences methodology that relies on variation across industries in exposure to robotization technology, import competition from China and tariff declines in US markets due to the signature of free trade agreements, we study the causal effects of these shocks on market power and concentration. We find that, while robotization technology has reduced markups on average, it has increased markups and total factor productivity of top industry firms; that the pro-competitive effect of Chinese imports has indeed led to a decrease in market power of domestic firms; and that increased export opportunities due to free trade agreements have led to an increase in market power, with interesting heterogeneities across the two countries. |
| Keywords: | Mark-ups;Market concentration;trade agreements;Robotization |
| JEL: | L11 F14 F61 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14099 |
| By: | Harald Oberhofer (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Zhenyi Wang (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the role of dataset choices for trade policy estimates in structural gravity models. Using twelve publicly available data sources and applying alternative and commonly used dataset restrictions, we obtain 586 estimates for the EU membership trade effects from a standard structural gravity model specification. These estimates are used in a meta-regression analysis to shed light on potential sources for heterogeneity in the obtained EU membership trade effects. The meta study reveals a crucial role of domestic trade flows for the effect size of the EU membership trade effect estimate. The estimated EU trade effect is on average 20 percentage points larger in datasets that include domestic trade flows. The effect size of the EU membership trade effect estimates also vary with the time- and country coverage, across time interval and consecutive year panel data, alternative product classifications, the level of sectoral disaggregation in the data and the use of imports as alternative measure for trade flow. Alternative estimation packages do not significantly alter the effect size of our estimates for the EU membership trade effects. The paper concludes with some recommendations on data source selection and dataset restrictions. |
| Keywords: | Trade policy; EU membership trade effects; Gravity models; meta study; meta-regression analysis. |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 C80 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202523 |
| By: | Andrés Rodríguez-Clare; Mauricio Ulate; Jose P. Vasquez |
| Abstract: | We use a dynamic trade and reallocation model with downward nominal wage rigidities to quantitatively assess the economic consequences of the recent increase in the U.S. tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, as well as the “reciprocal” tariff changes announced on “Liberation Day” and retaliatory measures by other countries. Higher tariffs trigger an expansion in U.S. manufacturing employment, but this comes at the expense of declines in service and agricultural employment, with overall employment declining as lower real wages reduce labor-force participation. For the United States as a whole, real income falls around 1% by 2028, the last year we assume the high tariffs are in effect. Importantly, our analysis disaggregates the U.S. into its 50 states, while incorporating cross-state redistribution of the tariff-generated fiscal revenue, allowing us to analyze which states gain or lose more from the shock. Around half of the states lose, with some states experiencing real income declines of more than 3%. Turning to cross-country results, some close U.S. trading partners—like Canada, Mexico, China, and Ireland—suffer the largest real income losses. |
| Keywords: | trade; Trade Dynamics; reallocation; downward nominal wage rigidity; tariffs |
| JEL: | F10 F11 F13 F16 F40 F42 |
| Date: | 2025–04–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:99957 |
| By: | Ingo Borchert (University of Sussex); Mattia Di Ubaldo (University of Sussex) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how exporting firms in India respond to the removal of preferential market access abroad. We exploit episodes of unexpected graduations from the EU Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), whereby the EU removes preferential (i.e. lower than MFN) GSP tariffs from beneficiary countries in sectors in which they are considered to be internationally competitive. Graduations impact on Indian firms in a variety of ways. First, graduations lead to an increase in the likelihood of firms exiting exporting altogether and, for surviving exporters, to a reduction in the total value exported. Second, we find a strong knockon effect from reduced export opportunities to lower purchases of both foreign and domestic inputs. Looking at quantity and prices of sales and inputs separately, we find that firms react mainly along the price margin as unit prices of both sales and purchases fall. Third, graduations trigger a substitution response: firms’ product scope shrinks, and resources are re-oriented internally towards non-affected products, whose sales increase in the aftermath of graduations. |
| Keywords: | GSP, trade preferences, graduations, firms |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:0125 |
| By: | Alviarez, Vanessa; Blyde, Juan S. |
| Abstract: | Trade flows are the result of the interaction between buyers and sellers. Understanding how these firm-to-firm relationships form, survive, and evolve over time helps identify how countries can improve their export outcomes. Using a very granular dataset of United States import transactions from all countries around the world, we present a battery of static and dynamic metrics of firm-to-firm relationships. We show how Latin American exporters compare with exporters from other regions across all the metrics. We show that trade costs negatively affect the formation and duration of firm-to-firm networks. Regional differences in these costs partially explain Latin Americas performance. The study discusses a series of measures to reduce trade-related cots in the region that, in light of the results, are likely to improve the trade networks of Latin American countries. |
| Keywords: | Trade networks;Supply Chains;exports |
| JEL: | F12 F14 L22 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14092 |
| By: | Lionel Gérard Fontagné; Yoto V. Yotov |
| Abstract: | We propose and construct novel measures of the effectiveness and potential of trade blocs, combining estimation with granular data and simulation with a New Quantitative Trade Model. We deploy our methods and new indexes to quantify the potential benefits from (i) further integration within the largest and most successful trade liberalization effort in the world – the Single European Market – and (ii) a possible enlargement. Three main results and implications stand out from our analysis. First, European integration has been very effective in promoting trade among its members, with heterogeneous effects across industries and member states. Second, and most novel and important, our estimates reveal that only half of the potential benefits from EU membership have been realized to date. Third, EU accession will generate very large gains from trade for the new joiners and moderate gains for existing members, with larger benefits for some small and peripheral EU members. Importantly, our methods enable us to construct confidence bounds for the effects of EU enlargement. |
| Keywords: | European integration, trade costs, trade cost efficiency, single market potential. |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F16 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11850 |
| By: | Minetti, Raoul; Murro, Pierluigi; Rowe, Nick |
| Abstract: | Banks differ in specialization. We study the aggregate and distributive effects of financial development in a heterogeneous-firm model where firms can produce for domestic and foreign markets and banks specialize in monitoring firms’ domestic or foreign activities. Internationally oriented banks promote the growth of larger incumbent exporters. Locally specialized banks enable financially vulnerable firms to enter foreign markets but induce incumbent exporters to focus on domestic markets and lower their export intensities, fragmenting the export sector. The quantitative analysis reveals that financial development boosts total output, moderates inter-firm inequalities driven by internationalization, but may reduce aggregate trade. The predictions are supported by evidence from a major Italian banking deregulation. |
| Keywords: | Financial Development, Banking Specialization, International Trade, Credit |
| JEL: | E44 F4 G21 G28 O16 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124370 |
| By: | Uraku Yoshimoto; Kiyotaka Sato; Takatoshi Ito; Junko Shimizu; Yushi Yoshida; Taiyo Yoshimi |
| Abstract: | While Japanese exports are generally considered invoiced mainly in U.S. dollars (USD), this study presents contrary evidence that most Japanese firms choose yen-invoiced exports. Surprisingly, only the top one percent of firms in size tend to choose USD-invoiced exports, based on the Japan Customs export declaration data that was newly made available to researchers. By conducting fixed-effect panel estimation using the granular Japan Customs transaction data, combined with the most comprehensive firm-level data compiled by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), we demonstrate that the firm size and the intra-firm export share significantly reduce yen-invoiced exports. Smaller firms with few overseas subsidiaries tend to choose yen-invoiced exports to avoid foreign exchange risk. In contrast, larger firms efficiently manage foreign exchange risk arising from USD-invoiced exports, since they tend to export to overseas subsidiaries and benefit from operational hedging that offsets USD-denominated import payments with export revenues within group companies. Smaller firms would continue to choose yen-invoice exports unless they can benefit from operational hedging. |
| JEL: | F30 F31 F37 F41 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33748 |
| By: | Parrinello, Sergio (University of Rome “La Sapienza”) |
| Abstract: | Recent years have seen a reinterpretation of Ricardo's numerical example on foreign trade from Sraffa's note (1930), prompting economic historians and theorists to recon-sider the scope of the example. This article seeks to clarify the revised interpretation and explain the common and distinct principles that govern the laws of comparative and absolute advantage. The condition of balanced trade in aggregated value is emphasized relative to the equations of normal prices based on this revisiting. Its special role is shown by the reformulation of Sraffa's price equations for two trading economies with-out international capital movements. It is proved that there is no additional degree of freedom for the choice of exogenous distributive variables if countries move from a state of autarky to one of free trade. |
| Keywords: | David Ricardo; comparative advantage; absolute advantage; trade balance; global economy |
| JEL: | B12 B17 F10 |
| Date: | 2025–05–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:sraffa:0072 |
| By: | Bouamra-Mechemache, Zohra; Gaigné, Carl; Turolla, Stéphane |
| Abstract: | We develop a methodology to evaluate the role of both price and non-price competitiveness factors for domestic industries competing with foreign imports. Using a structural trade model and an instrumental variables approach, we estimate the elasticities of the imported-to-domestic consumption ratio (i.e. the imported-to-domestic ratio) with respect to changes in labor cost, productivity, and product quality. We then perform counterfactual simulations to assess the impact of unilateral changes in labor cost or product quality at the country-industry level. By adapting the widely-used exact-hat algebra approach, we compute the effects on imports, domestic consumption, and both producer and consumer revenues. We apply this methodology to the EU food sector using publicly available trade and production data. Our results highlight the importance of both price and non-price factors in explaining the share of food expenditure on imports. However, the counterfactual analysis shows that improving the cost or quality channel generates very different outcomes across countries, but also across industries within a country. Furthermore, competitiveness gains vary substantially between consumers and producers. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade, Productivity Analysis |
| Date: | 2025–05–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:inrasl:356832 |
| By: | Lionel Fontagné (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Yoto V Yotov (Drexel University) |
| Abstract: | We propose and construct novel measures of the effectiveness and potential of trade blocs, combining estimation with granular data and simulation with a New Quantitative Trade Model. We deploy our methods and new indexes to quantify the potential benefits from (i) further integration within the largest and most successful trade liberalization effort in the world -the Single European Market -and (ii) a possible enlargement. Three main results and implications stand out from our analysis. First, European integration has been very effective in promoting trade among its members, with heterogeneous effects across industries and member states. Second, and most novel and important, our estimates reveal that only half of the potential benefits from EU membership have been realized to date. Third, EU accession will generate very large gains from trade for the new joiners and moderate gains for existing members, with larger benefits for some small and peripheral EU members. Importantly, our methods enable us to construct confidence bounds for the effects of EU enlargement. |
| Keywords: | European Integration, Trade Costs, Trade Cost Efficiency, Single Market Potential |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-05048951 |
| By: | Laura Alfaro; Mariya Brussevich; Camelia Minoiu; Andrea F. Presbitero |
| Abstract: | Finding new international suppliers is costly, so most importers source inputs from a single country. We examine the role of banks in mitigating trade search costs during the 2018–2019 U.S.-China trade tensions. We match data on shipments to U.S. ports with the U.S. credit register to analyze trade and bank credit relationships at the bank-firm level. We show that importers of tariff-hit products from China were more likely to exit relationships with Chinese suppliers and to find new suppliers in other Asian countries. To finance their geographic diversification, tariff-hit firms increased credit demand, drawing on bank credit lines and taking out loans at higher rates. Banks offering specialized trade finance services to Asian markets eased both financial and information frictions. Tariff-hit firms with specialized banks borrowed at lower rates and were 15 pps more likely and 3 months faster to establish new supplier relationships than firms with other banks. We estimate the cost of searching for suppliers at $1.9 million (or 5% of annual sales revenue) for the average U.S. importer. |
| JEL: | F34 F42 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33754 |
| By: | Mitchener, Kris; Wandschneider, Kirsten |
| Abstract: | Explaining President Trump's "Liberation-day" tariffs on April 2nd, 2025, Stephen Miran, President Trump's chairman of the council of economic advisors suggested that countries accept the U.S. tariffs without retaliation to come to a fair "burden sharing"(Miran: 2025). History shows that this assumption is wrong: using a detailed data set of bilateral trade flows constructed for the interwar period, this column shows that in fact the US faced substantial and widespread retaliation from trade partners in response to the U.S. Tariff Act of 1930 (i.e., the Smoot-Hawley Tariff). U.S. exports to retaliating countries fell by as much as 33%, with U.S. trade partners specifically targeting high-end, branded consumer products, such as U.S. autos. The drop in trade contributed to the Great Depression, which in turn triggered a large currency war: between 1929 and 1936, 70 countries devalued their currencies relative to gold. We show that trade was further reduced by more than 21% following devaluation. The currency war destroyed the trade-enhancing benefits of the global monetary standard, ending regime coordination and increasing trade costs. The 1930s are a potent reminder of what can happen when international policy coordination breaks down and countries go it alone when negotiating trade and exchange-rate policies. |
| Abstract: | Bei der Erläuterung von Präsident Trumps "Befreiungstag"-Zöllen vom 2. April 2025 schlug Stephen Miran, Präsident Trumps Vorsitzender des Rates der Wirtschaftsberater, vor, dass Länder die US-Zölle ohne Vergeltungsmaßnahmen akzeptieren, um zu einer fairen "Lastenteilung" zu kommen (Miran: 2025). Die Geschichte zeigt jedoch, dass diese Annahme falsch ist: Anhand eines detaillierten Datensatzes bilateraler Handelsströme, der für die Zwischenkriegszeit erstellt wurde, zeigt unsere Analyse, dass die USA tatsächlich erheblichen und weit verbreiteten Vergeltungsmaßnahmen von Handelspartnern als Reaktion auf das US-Zollgesetz von 1930 (auch bekannt als Smoot-Hawley-Tariff) ausgesetzt waren. Die US-Exporte in Länder, die mit Gegenzöllen oder anderen Maßnahmen reagierten, sanken um bis zu 33%, wobei US-Handelspartner gezielt hochwertige, markengebundene Konsumgüter wie US-Autos ins Visier nahmen. Der Rückgang des Handels trug zur Großen Depression bei, die wiederum einen Währungskrieg auslöste: Zwischen 1929 und 1936 werteten 70 Länder ihre Währungen gegenüber Gold ab. Wir zeigen, dass der Handel infolge dieser Abwertungen zusätzlich um mehr als 21% zurückging. Der Währungskrieg zerstörte die handelsfördernden Vorteile des globalen Goldstandards, beendete internationale Koordination und erhöhte die Handelskosten. Die 1930er Jahre sind eine eindringliche Mahnung daran, was geschehen kann, wenn die internationale politische Koordination zusammenbricht und Länder bei Handels- und Wechselkurspolitiken im Alleingang handeln. |
| Keywords: | US trade policy, tariff policy, Trump administration, historic trade wars, US national debt, S-Handelspolitik, Zollpolitik, Trump-Administration, historische Handelskriege, US-Staatsschulden |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:317793 |
| By: | Lawrence, Alice |
| Abstract: | The fragility of global supply chains has become increasingly evident in recent years, driven by factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, trade wars, and geopolitical instability. In response, companies are reevaluating traditional sourcing models and turning toward nearshoring and reshoring as strategic tools for mitigating risk and enhancing resilience. Nearshoring refers to relocating production closer to consumption markets, often within the same region, while reshoring brings operations back to a company's home country. This study examines the motivations, challenges, and implications of these shifts, drawing on empirical data, industry case studies, and recent supply chain analytics. The analysis highlights how proximity can improve responsiveness, reduce transportation vulnerabilities, and align supply chains with shifting consumer and regulatory expectations. However, it also considers the limitations, including labor shortages, infrastructure readiness, and potential cost increases. Ultimately, the paper contributes to a broader understanding of how firms can balance global efficiency with localized control in an increasingly uncertain economic landscape. Keywords: Nearshoring, Reshoring, Supply Chain Management, Risk Mitigation, Global Disruptions, Strategic Relocation, Manufacturing Resilience, Localization, Trade Policy |
| Date: | 2024–07–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:5atfw_v1 |
| By: | Nobuhiro Hosoe (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan) |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the impact of additional tariffs and reciprocal tariffs on US imports, which were announced immediately after the inauguration of the second term of the Trump administration, using a computable general equilibrium model. Our simulations show that China, which is subject to high tariffs, and Canada and Mexico, whose supply chains are closely connected by trade, suffer large economic welfare losses, while other countries and regions do not suffer much from Trump’s tariffs. Welfare in the US varies greatly depending on whether tariff revenues are spent on government consumption or returned to households, and in the latter case, the US would gain in welfare. Considering the countermeasures that Japan can take against Trump’s tariffs, Japan could maximize its welfare (or minimize its losses due to Trump’s tariffs) by imposing retaliatory tariffs of about 15% on the premise that tariff revenues would be returned to households, but only marginally. Rather than raising tariffs, it would be of great welfare benefit for Japan to eliminate tariffs on imports from the US, even if it is unilateral. Also, Japan’s retaliatory tariffs would inflict only small losses on the US, which would be far from sufficient for motivating the US to withdraw the additional or reciprocal tariffs. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:25-03 |
| By: | Minetti, Raoul; Murro, Pierluigi; Peruzzi, Valentina |
| Abstract: | We investigate the influence of firms' global status on the allocation of credit during a financial crisis. Using data on 15, 000 businesses from seven European countries, we find that firms participating in global value chains were 25% less likely to be rationed by banks during the 2009 Great Recession. We next match information on the geography of firms' value chains with data on banks' branch and subsidiary networks. We find that banks especially insulated from credit rationing firms with supply chain relationships in the countries where banks have the largest presence. The results reveal that banks aimed at reducing spillovers on their lending and consulting activities with global chains rather than leveraging their knowledge of internationally traded products. |
| Keywords: | Banks; global value chains; financial crises; spillovers. |
| JEL: | D22 F10 G20 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124369 |
| By: | Blaise Gnimassoun; Carl Grekou; Valérie Mignon |
| Abstract: | Premature deindustrialization in most emerging and developing economies is one of the most striking stylized facts of the recent decades. In this paper, we provide solid empirical evidence supporting that the choice of a fixed exchange rate regime accelerates this phenomenon. Relying on a panel of 146 developed, emerging, and developing countries over the 1974-2019 period, we show that fixed exchange rate regimes have had a negative, significant, and robust effect on the size of the manufacturing sector—developing countries being the most affected by the industrial cost of such a regime. Additional gravity model regressions show that the impact of fixed regimes passes through the trade channel. In particular, this regime has kept countries with low relative productivity in a state of structural dependence on imports of manufactured products to the detriment of the emergence of a strong local manufacturing sector. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate regimes; (De)industrialization; Manufacturing; Developing countries; Emerging economies. |
| JEL: | E42 F43 F45 F6 O14 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2025-02 |
| By: | Jean-Pierre Landau (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This Policy Insight examines a set of proposals gaining traction among economists and policymakers aligned with the new US administration, who seek to overhaul the global trading and financial system to better serve US economic interests. Departing from traditional protectionism, this emerging approach embraces tariffs as tools for revenue generation and burden sharing, while framing persistent trade deficits as symptoms of broader macroeconomic imbalances - particularly a chronically overvalued dollar driven by global capital inflows. These inflows, the authors argue, result from both domestic distortions in surplus economies like China and the dollar's role as the world's dominant reserve currency. The proposed remedies include unconventional measures, such as penalising foreign reserve accumulation in dollars, accepting a reduced international role for the currency as a necessary trade-off for revitalising US industry and correcting current account imbalances. Drawing primarily on recent work by Miran (2024) and Pettis and Hogan (2024), the Insight explores the technical underpinnings of the ‘new arrangement' and assesses its implications for the long-term health of the US economy. |
| Keywords: | International Finance, International Trade |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05043295 |
| By: | Mirko Sch\"afer; Tiernan Buckley; Frank Boerman; Anke Weidlich |
| Abstract: | In 2023, Germany's electricity trade balance shifted from net exports to net imports for the first time since 2002, resulting in an increasing discussion of these imports in the public debate. This study discusses different data driven approaches for the analysis of Germany's cross-border trade, with a focus on the methodological challenges to determine the origin of imported electricity within the framework of European electricity market coupling. While scheduled commercial flows from ENTSO-E are often used as indicators, generally these do not correspond to bilateral exchanges between different market actors. In particular, for day-ahead market coupling only net positions have an economically reasonable interpretation, and scheduled commercial exchanges are defined through ex-post algorithmic calculations. Any measure of the origin of electricity imports thus depends on some underlying interpretation and corresponding method, ranging from local flow patterns to correlations in net positions. To illustrate this dependence on methodological choices, we compare different approaches to determine the origin of electricity imports for hourly European power system data for 2024. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.20232 |
| By: | Lutfu S. Sua; Haibo Wang; Jun Huang |
| Abstract: | A novel spatiotemporal framework using diverse econometric approaches is proposed in this research to analyze relationships among eight economy-wide variables in varying market conditions. Employing Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Granger causality, we explore trade policy effects on emerging manufacturing hubs in China, India, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam. A Bayesian Global Vector Autoregression (BGVAR) model also assesses interaction of cross unit and perform Unconditional and Conditional Forecasts. Utilizing time-series data from the Asian Development Bank, our study reveals multi-way cointegration and dynamic connectedness relationships among key economy-wide variables. This innovative framework enhances investment decisions and policymaking through a data-driven approach. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2503.17790 |