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on International Trade |
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Issue of 2025–05–05
25 papers chosen by Nicola Daniele Coniglio, Università degli Studi di Bari “Aldo Moro” |
| By: | Clara Brandi (German Institute of Development and Sustainability); Federico Carri-Caccia (Department of International and Spanish Economics, University of Granada) |
| Abstract: | The present paper re-visits the link between cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) and bilateral trade liberalization. It presents new evidence on the extent to which investment related environmental provisions (IEP) embedded in Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) moderate the impact of PTAs on cross-border M&As. To this end, we estimate a gravity model. Our findings suggest that IEPs diminish the positive effect of PTAs on bilateral M&As. We show that IEP undermines the positive effect of PTAs on investments flows between countries with high environmental stringency. |
| Keywords: | Gravity; M&As; Pollution haven; PTA |
| JEL: | F13 F21 F23 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202513 |
| By: | vJeff Luckstead (Washington State University) |
| Abstract: | Recent geopolitical events—including, the U.S.-China trade war, Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine—have heightened trade policy uncertainty, disrupted supply chains, and accelerated nearshoring. These shifts may have reshaped the role of globalization in agri-food trade, particularly in how distance, trade networks measured by the number of export destinations, and nearshoring influence trade flows. Using a structural gravity model, this study examines how these factors in agri-food trade have changed between 2010 and 2023. The results indicate that recent globalization trends have increased the impact of distance on primary commodity trade but reduced it for processed food trade, though these changes do not appear to be driven by any single event. Nearshoring has reduced trade in primary and minimally processed food but has not affected processed food trade. While trade networks do not influence primary commodity trade, they enhance trade in both minimally processed and processed food products. Importantly, the interaction between nearshoring and trade networks expands trade, suggesting that these factors jointly mitigate trade frictions. Finally, the findings indicate that countries with broader trade networks experience lower trade costs associated with distance. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Trade; Distance Puzzle; Globalization; Nearshoring; Trade Networks |
| JEL: | Q17 F14 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202515 |
| By: | Steinbach, Sandro; Yildirim, Yasin; Zurita, Carlos |
| Abstract: | U.S. agriculture faces heightened exposure to retaliatory trade actions. This report evaluates the potential risks to U.S. and North Dakota agriculture under four trade policy scenarios involving Canada, Mexico, and China. We quantify trade risks across key commodities using detailed trade elasticity estimates and projected agricultural export data. The results show that soybean and wheat exports are particularly vulnerable, with southeastern and north-central counties in North Dakota projected to experience the greatest economic impact. These findings underscore the substantial vulnerability of North Dakota’s agricultural economy to retaliatory tariffs and highlight the need for targeted risk mitigation strategies that enhance market resilience, stabilize farm revenues, and reduce dependence on a narrow set of export markets. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade, Risk and Uncertainty, Supply Chain |
| Date: | 2025–04–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ndsure:356548 |
| By: | Lisa Scheckenhofer; Feodora A. Teti; Joschka Wanner; Feodora Teti; Feodora Teti |
| Abstract: | The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to unprecedented sanctions aimed at denying Russia access to critical technologies essential for sustaining its war efforts. This paper examines whether trade sanctions targeting military goods were undermined by evasion, specifically through transshipment through Russia-friendly countries. We find that Russia-friendly countries are 20 pp more likely to export military goods to Russia relative to neutral countries after the war began, while exports of military goods from Western allies to these countries also increased. Our results show that weak enforcement significantly undermines the effectiveness of sanctions. |
| Keywords: | trade sanctions, sanction evasion, military goods trade |
| JEL: | F14 F51 K42 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11743 |
| By: | Paola Conconi; Fabrizio Leone; Glenn Magerman; Catherine Thomas |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a new explanation for the dominance of multinational corporations (MNCs) in international trade: after being acquired by an MNC, firms face lower entry frictions in countries in which their global parent already has a presence. We provide a model of firms’ export and import choices that delivers firm-level gravity regressions to isolate these “MNC network effects” from other channels through which multinational ownership can affect firms’ trade participation. We estimate the model combining rich administrative data for Belgium with data on MNCs’ global affiliate networks. Event study results reveal that acquired firms are more likely to start exporting to and importing from countries that belong—or that are exogenously added—to their parental network. The effects are stronger when new affiliates are geographically and culturally close to their direct parent, which can facilitate transfer of information about the global parent’s network. Combining the structure of our model with the empirical estimates, we find that MNC network effects have a large impact on firm growth. The effects of MNC ownership extend beyond the boundaries of the multinational: new affiliates are also more likely to start trading with countries that are geographically or culturally close to the MNC network, even if their parent has no affiliates there. |
| Keywords: | multinational corporations, production networks |
| JEL: | F10 F23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11740 |
| By: | Samuel Rosenow; Alvaro Espitia; Ana Margarida Fernandes |
| Abstract: | Addressing climate change requires green technology deployment. This paper uses firm-level import data in 35 emerging markets to examine how trade policies affect firms’ imports of products associated with solar, wind power, and electric vehicle value chains. Panel estimates show a particularly negative effect of tariffs on green value chain imports compared to average imports, especially in solar and downstream segments. This effect is pervasive from import values and quantities to import probabilities, with undiversified firms most affected. Import regulations have smaller, varied impacts. Emerging markets should avoid protectionist policies, as local firms depend on imports to adopt green technologies. |
| Keywords: | imports, green value chains, trade policy, tariffs, non-tariff measures, firm-level imports, decarbonization value chains, green technology adoption, trade and environment, green technologies |
| JEL: | F13 F14 L11 O19 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11726 |
| By: | Rodolphe Desbordes; Markus Eberhardt; Mario Larch |
| Abstract: | We study the causal effect of country-specific democratic regime change on bilateral trade flows, extending structural gravity empirics to ‘heterogeneous gravity’ estimated at the country-pair level. Our difference-in-differences implementation accounts for selection into regime change, multilateral resistance, globalisation effects, and spatial dependence. We find average effects of 46% higher exports for countries after thirty years in democracy, but demonstrate that these effects are driven by the democratic dividend for income: the causal chain runs from democracy to economic prosperity to trade, and democracy appears to have a limited ‘direct’ effect on trade flows. |
| Keywords: | trade gravity model, democratic regime change, monadic variables, heterogeneity, panel data, interactive fixed effects |
| JEL: | P16 F13 F14 C23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11735 |
| By: | Yang Jiao (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Ohyun Kwon (School of Economics, Drexel University); Saiah Lee (Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST)) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the internationalization of Renminbi (IoR) since 2006 by examining its increased utilization among Korean exporters to China. Employing proprietary data from Korean customs, which includes detailed invoicing information, our analysis reveals that products invoiced, either fully or partially, in RMB have experienced more rapid export growth. Furthermore, firms adopting RMB invoicing also exhibit faster export growth to China after controlling for relevant observables. Our findings remain robust when employing an instrumental variable approach to address potential endogeneity concerns. With the help of a currency invoicing model that demonstrates different impact channels, we show that the increased trade volume is due to Chinese importers facing lower currency costs when purchasing RMB-invoiced products compared to USD-invoiced products. |
| Keywords: | RMB internalization, invoicing currency, international trade |
| JEL: | F14 F31 D22 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202521 |
| By: | James Giesecke; Robert Waschik |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the economic impacts of U.S. tariff increases announced over March-April 2025 using GTAP-FIN, a dynamic global general equilibrium model. We simulate three scenarios: (1) U.S. tariff increases without retaliation; (2) retaliation by all trading partners except Australia, Japan, and South Korea; and (3) retaliation coupled with U.S. fiscal consolidation via tariff revenue. Across all scenarios, U.S. real GDP declines, driven by deep short-run employment losses, long-run capital stock contractions, and persistent allocative efficiency losses. In the no retaliation case, improved U.S. terms of trade buoy U.S. real consumption outcomes relative to the contractions in real GDP. However, this benefit is reversed under retaliation, which lowers U.S. export prices and consumption. Fiscal consolidation amplifies U.S. consumption losses but mitigates investment declines. Australia is modestly affected, benefiting from improved terms of trade and investment in the retaliation scenarios. For China, heavy tariff exposure results in sustained terms of trade and consumption losses, although outcomes improve marginally with U.S. fiscal consolidation. Globally, regions most exposed to U.S. tariffs see the sharpest consumption declines, particularly under the no retaliation scenario. The analysis does not capture the heightened investor uncertainty arising from the unclear policy rationale behind the tariffs, suggesting that adverse economic impacts may exceed those estimated in this paper. |
| Keywords: | U.S. tariffs, Trump tariffs, "Liberation Day" tariffs. |
| JEL: | F13 F47 C68 D58 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-354 |
| By: | Pia Heckl; Carolina Lennon; Alyssa Schneebaum |
| Abstract: | Global firms have a higher share of female employees than domestic non-exporters. To explain this fact, this paper tests whether international trade and FDI are channels through which norms regarding gender (in)equality are transmitted from customers and investors to firms. We employ pooled cross-sectional data from 2007 - 2016 for around 28, 000 firms in 104 different countries. We compare global versus non-global firms in the same market to study the influence of firms’ exposure to gender norms in commercial partner countries. The results show a race to the top for low- and mid-level jobs and the opposite for top managerial positions. |
| Keywords: | globalization, international trade, FDI, gender, transmission of social norms |
| JEL: | F66 D22 F42 J16 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11704 |
| By: | Aaheli Ahmed; Sugata Marjit; Debashis Chakraborty |
| Abstract: | A major section of the existing literature on strategic trade policy, following a partial equilibrium framework, observed that imposition of tariff by the domestic country leads to a rise in their wage level. Analysis on the impact of strategic trade policy intervention (tariff) on wages and welfare in a two-country general oligopolistic equilibrium (GOLE) model framework in the current paper leads to a number of interesting results. First, imposition of tariff does not affect the wages in domestic country. In addition, the welfare of the tariff-imposing country unambiguously comes down. Second, a comparison of the revenue generated from tariff and the subsidy required to compensate the affected workers reveals that when only trade in final goods is allowed, such compensation is possible beyond a specific level of tariff rate, which is directly related to foreign tariff rate. In effect, a high value of foreign tariff implies a lower ability of the domestic government to subsidize the workers. Third, however, when trade in both final and intermediate goods take place, the opposite results emerge, where tariff revenue can compensate the workers up to a certain level of tariff rate. The underlying logic is that imposition of tariff may lead to a fall in the overall demand for workers in the domestic country. The results are of crucial policy relevance, especially given the increasing participation of developing countries in Global Value Chains (GVCs) and re-emergence of tariff protectionism in several countries. |
| Keywords: | Cournot Competition, tariff, wage, compensation, general oligopolistic equilibrium (GOLE), welfare |
| JEL: | D43 J33 L13 I31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11707 |
| By: | Michelle R. Garfinkel; Constantinos Syropoulos |
| Abstract: | We provide a selective overview of the literature on the linkages between interstate conflict and international trade, paying special attention to how trade openness (i) affects arming incentives, (ii) the channels through which its effects travel, and (iii) its consequences for the emergence of war (or peace) as an equilibrium outcome. We also discuss how restrictive trade policies may interact with national security concerns and what they imply for welfare. |
| Keywords: | gains from trade, national security, arming, war and peace. |
| JEL: | C78 D30 D70 D74 F10 F51 F60 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11801 |
| By: | Salih Bora (Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy–VUB); Mary E. Lovely (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Luis Simón (Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy–VUB; Elcano Royal Institute) |
| Abstract: | Heightened concerns about China's exports have intensified competitive pressures on producers and compelled American and European policymakers, government officials, and political leaders to try to counteract those concerns. President Donald Trump's decision to raise tariffs on China by 145 percent is the most recent--and arguably most dramatic--example of broader concerns about Chinese overcapacity. The clash with China is particularly evident in sectors that US and European leaders have deemed essential for growth and security, charging that Chinese industrial subsidies, rather than comparative advantage, are the basis for the country's export success. However, the European Union and the United States have taken different approaches to resolve tensions with China. The European Union seeks, at least for now, to preserve and adhere to global trading rules. By contrast, the United States has acted unilaterally (even before the second Trump administration) to defend its domestic production by engaging in a trade confrontation with China that, together with China's retaliation, has rattled global financial markets. This Policy Brief explores these EU-US divisions, their reflection on trade and industrial policy, and prospects for coordinated action against Chinese overcapacity. The authors argue that the European Union can take the lead toward a resolution within the rules-based system while maintaining an open door to future US participation. This Policy Brief has been copublished with the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy–VUB. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb25-2 |
| By: | Yoto Yotov (School of Economics, Drexel University) |
| Abstract: | The gravity equation is the “workhorse†model of international trade and the most popular tool for trade policy analysis. Yet, despite its solid theoretical foundations, remarkable empirical success, intuitive appeal, and ease of implementation, the gravity equation has not received proper introduction and well-deserved coverage that would enable and enhance research by undergraduate students and novices to the gravity literature. The objective of this chapter to introduce the gravity model of trade to the undergraduate student and to translate the theoretical gravity equation into an econometric model that can be used for a wide range of research projects and policy analysis. |
| Keywords: | Gravity model, Methods, Teaching, Theory, Estimation |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F16 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202519 |
| By: | Lionel Fontagne (Paris School of Economics); Yoto Yotov (School of Economics, Drexel University) |
| Abstract: | We propose and construct novel measures of the effectiveness and potential of trade blocs, combining estimation with granular data and simulation with a New Quantitative Trade Model. We deploy our methods and new indexes to quantify the potential benefits from (i) further integration within the largest and most successful trade liberalization effort in the world – the Single European Market – and (ii) a possible enlargement. Three main results and implications stand out from our analysis. First, European integration has been very effective in promoting trade among its members, with heterogeneous effects across industries and member states. Second, and most novel and important, our estimates reveal that only half of the potential benefits from EU membership have been realized to date. Third, EU accession will generate very large gains from trade for the new joiners and moderate gains for existing members, with larger benefits for some small and peripheral EU members. Importantly, our methods enable us to construct confidence bounds for the effects of EU enlargement. |
| Keywords: | European Integration, Trade Costs, Trade Cost Efficiency, Single Market Potential |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F16 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202522 |
| By: | Michele Ruta; Monika Sztajerowska |
| Abstract: | Industrial policies have been on the rise with subsidies provided to firms accounting for the lion’s share of interventions. The effects of these measures on productivity, trade, investment and other economic and non-economic variables are largely an open question. This paper examines empirically the link between subsidies and inward cross-border investment using data on greenfield investments across a large sample of advanced and emerging economies between 2010 and 2020. Employing a difference-in-difference approach, we find that—while the average effect of all subsidies is zero—financial subsidies, such as loans and loan guarantees, increase new cross-border investment projects by an average of 7%. These effects are primarily driven by capital-intensive sectors in capital-abundant countries, suggesting that subsidies can affect foreign direct investment—but they reinforce (rather than reshape) countries’ comparative advantage. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Direct Investment; Industrial Policy; Subsidies |
| Date: | 2025–04–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/080 |
| By: | Michelle R. Garfinkel; Constantinos Syropoulos |
| Abstract: | We consider a dynamic setting where two countries with competing claims to a resource/asset first arm and then choose whether to resolve their dispute through war or peacefully through settlement. War precludes international trade and can be destructive, but also locks gains and eliminates arming costs in the future. By contrast, a peaceful resolution, possibly supported by arming, avoids destruction and allows for mutually advantageous trade; yet future settlements must be renegotiated under the threat of war. We characterize the conditions under which peace is stable and show that, depending on war’s destructiveness, time preferences, and the distribution of resource endowments, greater gains from trade can pacify international tensions, but possibly only for more uneven endowment distributions. |
| Keywords: | interstate war, armed peace, unarmed peace, security policies, gains from trade, shadow of the future. |
| JEL: | C72 C78 D30 D70 D74 F10 F51 F60 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11802 |
| By: | Jean Chateau; Hugo Rojas-Romagosa; Sneha D Thube; Dominique van der Mensbrugghe |
| Abstract: | IMF-ENV is a global dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model developed by the IMF's Research Department. The model features a database of 160 countries and regions, along with 76 sectors, and can be calibrated to a wide range of country-sector combinations. The model's general equilibrium structure, combined with its high level of detail, enables it to assess both direct and indirect domestic structural changes and cross-border spillover effects of policies. This makes it suitable for examining the medium- and long-term macroeconomic effects as well as structural shifts arising from national and/or global climate mitigation, energy, fiscal and trade policies. The model reports impact on macroeconomic variables, sectoral outcomes, employment and bilateral trade flows, along with detailed information for energy demand and supply, electricity generation and GHG emissions. |
| Keywords: | Computable general equilibrium models; energy transition; energy security; energy policies; climate policies; structural change; trade policies |
| Date: | 2025–04–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/077 |
| By: | Kalina Manova; Andreas Moxnes; Oscar Perelló; Kalina B. Manova |
| Abstract: | This paper examines intermediation in production networks to unpack the firm attributes and matching costs that govern firm-to-firm networks and the gains from trade. Exploiting rich customs data for Chile, we show that exporters of all sizes use intermediaries, mix trade modes across buyers, and set lower prices on intermediated flows. We rationalize these facts in a model of network formation with suppliers of heterogeneous productivity and matchability, buyers of heterogeneous productivity, and intermediaries that reduce matching costs for a brokerage fee. Empirical evidence on trade activity across firms and countries corroborates the model, and informs how geographic distance, logistics and customs efficiency, formal institutions, and cultural-linguistic similarity shape network costs. Model estimation reveals that sellers’ attributes are negatively correlated, such that intermediaries enable highly productive sellers with low matchability to reach smaller buyers. This amplifies the welfare gains from intermediation due to wider and deeper network connectivity. |
| Keywords: | production networks, intermediation, productivity, matching costs |
| JEL: | F10 F12 F14 F23 L11 L14 L81 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11717 |
| By: | Ohyun Kwon (School of Economics, Drexel University); Constantinos Syropoulos (School of Economics, Drexel University; CESifo); Yoto V. Yotov (School of Economics, Drexel University) |
| Abstract: | Direct measures of the economic impact of sanctions are contaminated by the endogeneity that arises when other events in target countries (e.g., civil or interstate conflicts, political independence, etc.) instigate the imposition of sanctions. To address this issue, we propose a novel instrument, sender’s aggressiveness, captured by the number of sanctions imposed in a given year. After establishing the validity of this instrument, we quantify the impact of sanctions on growth in sanctioned states and show that, on average, an additional sanction decreases contemporaneous real GDP per capita in target states by 0.39 percent. We also substantiate the presence of a significant (in magnitude) downward bias in the corresponding OLS estimates and demonstrate that the effects of sanctions on growth vary widely depending on the types of sanctions considered, their purported objectives, measures of their success, and the duration of their effects. |
| Keywords: | Real GDP per capita growth, trade sanctions, smart sanctions, long-run effects |
| JEL: | F43 F51 F63 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202516 |
| By: | Sydney Eck; Trang T. Hoang; Devashish Mitra; Hoang Pham |
| Abstract: | Many developing and developed countries have experienced a declining labor share of national output in recent decades (Karabarbounis and Neiman, 2014). Some blame the decline on globalization, although it is surprisingly unclear whether and how globalization is a key contributing factor (Grossman and Oberfield, 2022). |
| Date: | 2025–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2025-03-31-1 |
| By: | Yükçü, Onur |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how ethnic networks shaped trade among Armenian, Greek, Jewish, and Turkish traders in Istanbul after the collapse of the OttomanEmpire. I draw on a novel micro-dataset of 3, 777 transactions extracted frombulletins of the Istanbul Commodity Exchange published in December 1928.These sources provide detailed information on commodity type, geographicalorigin, price, quantity, contract type, and the names of buyers and sellers. Incontrast to much of the trade literature that relies on administrative unit-levelethnic or religious shares, the use of transaction-level data enables a more preciseanalysis of the role of ethnic networks in commerce. Building on the theoreticalframeworks developed by Janet T. Landa (1981) and Avner Greif (1989, 1993, 2006), I also test how ethnic homophily operated through certain channels. Theempirical findings reveal the existence of a Greek trade coalition in post-OttomanIstanbul: Greek traders were significantly more likely to transact with one anotherand less likely to trade with Armenians, Jews, or Turks. Greek-Greek transactionsare associated with an average increase of approximately 26% in transaction valuein flour trade. The Greek trade coalition appears to have reduced transaction costsfor its members, equivalent to approximately 10% of the seller's profit. Since Icontrol for flour quality, the findings on transaction value and costs are notconfounded by quality-related variation. Moreover, in long-distance tradeinvolving agricultural imports, Greek traders were more likely to trade with one another. |
| Keywords: | Homophily; Greek merchants; Ottoman economic history; Interwar Turkey; Cultural networks |
| JEL: | N85 F14 D85 |
| Date: | 2025–04–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:whrepe:46490 |
| By: | John S. McAlister; Jesse L. Brunner; Danielle J. Galvin; Nina H. Fefferman |
| Abstract: | Global trade of material goods involves the potential to create pathways for the spread of infectious pathogens. One trade sector in which this synergy is clearly critical is that of wildlife trade networks. This highly complex system involves important and understudied bidirectional coupling between the economic decision making of the stakeholders and the contagion dynamics on the emergent trade network. While each of these components are independently well studied, there is a meaningful gap in understanding the feedback dynamics that can arise between them. In the present study, we describe a general game theoretic model for trade networks of goods susceptible to contagion. The primary result relies on the acyclic nature of the trade network and shows that, through the course of trading with stochastic infections, the probability of infection converges to a directly computable fixed point. This allows us to compute best responses and thus identify equilibria in the game. We present ways to use this model to describe and evaluate trade networks in terms of global and individual risk of infection under a wide variety of structural or individual modifications to the trade network. In capturing the bidirectional coupling of the system, we provide critical insight into the global and individual drivers and consequences for risks of infection inherent in and arising from the global wildlife trade, and any economic trade network with associated contagion risks. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.06905 |
| By: | Akbulut-Yuksel, Mevlude (Dalhousie University); Zhang, Zhuo; Zhou, Weina (affiliation not available) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causal impacts of reducing solid waste imports on water quality in China, which was the world’s largest importer of waste until recently. We focus on the National Sword policy, introduced at the end of 2017, which abruptly banned the import of plastics, textiles, vanadium slag, and paper, reducing waste imports from 1.25 million tons per month to nearly zero. Using administrative data on waste imports and daily water quality readings from real-time automated monitoring stations across China, we exploit the sudden reduction in imported waste to identify significant improvements in dissolved oxygen levels in prefectures that previously imported the banned waste. These positive effects vary by the type of waste imported and are smaller in prefectures where the main importers are multinational firms. Our results are supported both by the Regression Discontinuity Design and the Difference-in-Differences framework. The magnitude of the effect is strongest immediately after the ban and gradually declines over time. |
| Keywords: | import waste, waste reduction, water pollution |
| JEL: | Q53 Q56 Q58 F18 O13 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17828 |
| By: | Bonnet Paolo (European Commission - JRC); Ciani Andrea (European Commission - JRC); Molnar Jozsef (European Commission - JRC); Nardo Michela (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | This report provides an in-depth analysis of the European Union's (EU) position in the global semiconductor industry. The analysis reveals that while the EU has long been a significant player in the global semiconducotor market, it faces challenges and dependencies that could impact its future competitiveness. The report examines the EU's trade dependencies, equipment ecosystem, and chips' market, identifying areas of strength and vulnerability. It also delves into the automotive sector, a key driver of the EU semiconductor demand, and highlights the complex and evolving nature of the automotive semiconductor supply chain. With the European semiconductor market projected to continue growing, this report provides valuable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders seeking to strengthen the EU's position in the global semiconductor industry. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc141323 |