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on International Trade |
| By: | Donni Fajar Anugrah (Bank Indonesia); Cicilia Anggadewi Harun (Bank Indonesia); Dian Rahmawati (Bank Indonesia); Sulistiyo Kadam Ardiyono (Bank Indonesia); Hilya Jannatul Imron (Bank Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | The global economy is currently experiencing geo-economic fragmentation, one of which is driven by the trade war between the United States (US) and China. This trade war has led to tariff increases that have significantly impacted strategic sectors, creating distortions in global supply chains. Indonesia's export dependence on the US and China makes its export performance particularly sensitive to tensions between these countries. To mitigate risks and capitalize on export opportunities arising from global geoeconomic fragmentation, this study analyzes the costs and benefits of trade cooperation and strategies for diversifying Indonesia’s export products and markets. The methods used include the Structural Match Index (SMI), Demand Index, Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), and the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, based on version 9.0 data. The results indicate that the simulation of alternative cooperation with the Chinese trade bloc yields better export performance for Indonesia than the US bloc. A 95% tariff reduction simulation across all sectors shows a more significant increase in Indonesia’s export value to allied blocs. The study also identifies nontraditional export destinations with high potential as alternative markets for Indonesia, such as Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Pakistan, and South Africa. Indonesia demonstrates comparative advantages in commodities like rubber, iron, steel, and minerals, though challenges remain in improving product competitiveness in international markets. Therefore, Indonesia must enhance its manufacturing capacity and strengthen trade relations with nontraditional countries, reducing dependence on traditional markets and seizing opportunities emerging from global trade shifts. |
| Keywords: | International Trade, Export Diversification, GTAP |
| JEL: | F13 F51 O24 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idn:wpaper:wp062024 |
| By: | Kaitila, Ville; Kuusi, Tero; Pajarinen, Mika; Wang, Maria |
| Abstract: | Abstract This study examines the impacts of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on corporate costs, adaptation strategies, and international trade. CBAM aims to supplement the EU’s emissions trading system and mitigate the risk of carbon leakage. The report evaluates the effects of CBAM’s initial phase and anticipates its future significance for Finnish enterprises. Through the use of gravity modeling, the study distinguishes the effects of CBAM from other trade-influencing factors. Furthermore, companies were surveyed regarding the administrative expenses incurred by CBAM and its influence on value chains. Findings indicate that CBAM decreases imports of covered products from non-EU countries and promotes intra-EU procurement. The system’s complexity and associated costs are deemed particularly burdensome for small businesses. |
| Keywords: | Carbon leakage, Carbon border adjustment mechanism, Gravity model, Survey, Administrative cost |
| JEL: | Q38 |
| Date: | 2025–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:report:162 |
| By: | Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde; Yiliang Li; Le Xu; Francesco Zanetti |
| Abstract: | We examine the rise of dark shipping – oil tankers disabling AIS transceivers to evade detection – amid Western sanctions on Iran, Syria, North Korea, Venezuela, and Russia. Using a machine learning-based ship clustering model, we track dark-shipped crude oil trade flows worldwide and detect unauthorized ship-to-ship transfers. From 2017 to 2023, dark ships transported an estimated 7.8 million metric tons of crude oil monthly – 43% of global seaborne crude exports – with China absorbing 15%. These sanctioned flows offset recorded declines in global oil exports but create distinct economic shifts. The U.S., a net oil exporter, faces lower oil prices but benefits from cheaper Chinese imports, driving deflationary growth. The EU, a net importer, contends with rising energy costs yet gains from Chinese demand, fueling inflationary expansion. China, leveraging discounted oil, boosts industrial output, propagating global economic shocks. Our findings expose dark shipping’s central role in reshaping oil markets and macroeconomic dynamics. |
| Keywords: | dark shipping, oil sanction, satellite data, clustering analysis, LP |
| JEL: | C32 C38 E32 Q43 R40 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-12 |
| By: | Lorie Logan |
| Abstract: | Dallas Fed President Lorie K. Logan delivered these remarks at the Outlook for North American Trade and Immigration conference in Dallas. |
| Keywords: | economics; trade; Mexico; U.S. |
| Date: | 2025–04–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddsp:99827 |
| By: | Dawn Chinagorom-Abiakalam; Fernando Leibovici |
| Abstract: | An analysis examines the prevalence and types of nontariff measures that affect trade, such as technical and safety regulations, in the U.S. and EU. |
| Keywords: | trade barriers |
| Date: | 2025–04–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:99814 |
| By: | Popov, Alexander |
| Abstract: | During his reign from 1979 to 2005, Pope John Paul II visited 129 countries, more than the 263 Popes before him combined. I document a significant increase in exports to trading partners with a relatively high share of Catholics following a Pastoral visit, leading to a non-negligible increase in aggregate exports. The biggest beneficiaries in terms of increased trade are visited countries that are at lower stages of economic development and have relatively few Catholics and weak trade links. The effect is absent for other prominent episodes, such as global sports events or visits by political dignitaries. JEL Classification: Z12, O1, F1 |
| Keywords: | economic development, international trade, religion |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253037 |
| By: | Florencia Airaudo; Francois de Soyres; Keith Richards; Ana Maria Santacreu |
| Abstract: | Recent geopolitical tensions have revived interest in understanding the economic consequences of geopolitical fragmentation. Using bilateral trade flows, portfolio investment data, and detailed records of economic policy interventions, we revisit widely-used geopolitical distance metrics, specifically the Ideal Point Distance (IPD) derived from United Nations General Assembly voting. We document substantial variability in measured fragmentation, driven significantly by methodological choices related to sample periods and vote categories, especially in the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Our results show robust evidence of increasing fragmentation in both trade flows and economic policy interventions among geopolitically distant country pairs, with particularly strong effects observed in strategically important sectors and policy motives. In contrast, financial portfolio allocations exhibit weaker, more heterogeneous, and context-sensitive responses. These findings highlight the critical importance of methodological transparency and careful specification when assessing geopolitical realignments and their implications for international economic relations. |
| Keywords: | fragmentation; geoeconomics; trade; financial flows |
| JEL: | F14 F36 F50 F60 |
| Date: | 2025–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:99766 |
| By: | Francois de Soyres; Ece Fisgin; Alexandre Gaillard; Ana Maria Santacreu; Henry L. Young |
| Abstract: | Since 2018, Chinese officials have been emphasizing the need for China to achieve greater self-reliance. As discussed in de Soyres and Moore (2024), China has reduced its reliance on imported inputs, while simultaneously becoming more dependent on foreign demand to absorb its manufactured goods. In this Note, we look at the evolution of the sectoral composition of China's exports and imports and investigate its similarity with the sectoral composition of the trade baskets of advanced economies (AEs). First, using a gravity model, we show that bilateral trade flows are significantly influenced by the complementarity between trading partners' export and import profiles---a metric we develop to complement existing measures that primarily focus on export similarity. This relationship persists after controlling for conventional variables. Our findings demonstrate how sectoral analysis can reveal shifting trade patterns and competitive dynamics during periods of rapid industrial transformation. We then document three key trends regarding the sectoral composition of Chinese international trade over the past decade. First, using existing measures of export similarity, we show that China has shifted towards producing and exporting in the same sophisticated product categories as advanced economies, particularly the euro area. Second, using our new index capturing the congruence between the sectoral specialization of an exporter and sectoral dependencies of an importer, we highlight that China is importing fewer of the types of goods that European countries typically export, potentially limiting European exporters' ability to benefit from Chinese economic growth. Third, we reveal how China's export basket is becoming more aligned with the import patterns of advanced economies, which could potentially strengthen China's position to serve AE markets. |
| Date: | 2025–02–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2025-02-28-2 |
| By: | Pablo A. Cuba-Borda; Albert Queraltó; Ricardo M. Reyes-Heroles; Mikaël Scaramucci |
| Abstract: | To quantify the effects of trade disruptions on inflation, we construct a measure of bilateral trade costs for a panel of 41 countries using annual data from 1995 through 2020. We then estimate an empirical model linking changes in trade costs to inflation. |
| Date: | 2025–02–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2025-02-28-1 |
| By: | Sutirtha Bandyopadhyay (Indian Institute of Management, Indore); Bharat Ramaswami (Ashoka University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines, within a panel data setting, the spatial impacts on prices and on wages, of India’s trade liberalization in edible oils. Starting, from near-autarkic policies that prohibited import of edible oils, imports surged to meet most of the domestic demand, following trade liberalization in the 1990s. While the domestic oils sector provides negligible employment, it uses domestically grown non-traded oilseeds which occupy 14% of cultivable land and are next in importance only to the cereal grains of rice and wheat. These oilseeds are grown in the dryland arid regions where farm incomes are low and precarious. To examine spillover effects , the paper constructs geographically varying exposure to trade shocks that depend on the cultivable area planted with oilseeds. Consistent with a model of spatial price competition, the paper finds greater price impacts in the high oilseed growing regions. On the other hand, spatial impacts on wages are not significant suggesting labor reallocation. While we do find significantly greater cropping pattern and production responses in the high oilseeds growing regions, such evidence does not extend to labor reallocation outside agriculture. |
| Date: | 2024–10–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ash:wpaper:131 |
| By: | Asjad Naqvi (WIFO) |
| Abstract: | This study applies the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) to the Asian Development Bank's Multi-Region Input-Output (MRIO) dataset to estimate global demand and supply elasticities across intermediate versus final, and domestic versus foreign sectors. Using pooled data from 2021-2023, results show that supply is generally less responsive to income changes than demand, but more reactive to price changes, particularly for intermediate goods. Over time, demand for foreign intermediate and final goods has outpaced supply, reflecting a growing dependence on foreign inputs with low substitutability. At a more detailed sectoral level, demand elasticities exhibit stronger income and substitution effects, especially in Household final demand and intermediate Services, while supply elasticities are predominantly price-driven, with greater responsiveness in sectors such as Construction, Manufacturing, and Agriculture. These elasticities are then used to simulate welfare impacts of ongoing trade tensions between the USA and the rest of the world, using the latest bilateral tariff data. Findings indicate a global welfare loss of approximately –1.3 percent, with some countries, particularly those highly dependent on US imports with limited substitution options, face losses up to 5.6 percent. Counter-tariffs also adversely affect sanctioning countries; for example, Canada could experience revenue losses of up to 5 percent, while others see welfare losses ranging from 0.5 to 1.8 percent. Despite retaliatory tariffs, the USA faces minimal welfare losses. This framework presented in this paper showcases how monitoring elasticities can support with adapting policies to potential trade-related price shocks. |
| Keywords: | Elasticities, Demand system, QUAIDS, Tariffs, Price shocks |
| Date: | 2025–04–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2025:i:702 |
| By: | Mauricio Stern |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effect of commodity price fluctuations on a commodity-exporting economy. Using Chilean and international copper market data, I find that positive copper price changes resulting from copper-specific demand shocks generate a broad GDP expansion, with no visible decline in manufacturing exports. These results provide evidence against the Dutch disease hypothesis, which posits the crowding-out effect of commodity price increases on the manufacturing sector. I then estimate a small open economy business-cycle model and find that a low degree of substitution between domestic and foreign goods explains the positive sectoral effect of a commodity price shock. Finally, I evaluate how tariffs on imports determine the volatility of total output in response to commodity price shocks, and find that lower tariffs reduce the volatility of total production when commodity prices fluctuate. |
| Keywords: | Commodity exporting economy;International market shocks;Dutch disease;Elasticity of substitution |
| JEL: | E32 F13 F14 F16 F31 F41 F44 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2025-06 |
| By: | Delera, Michele; Mathew, Nanditha (Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, RS: GSBE MORSE, RS: GSBE MGSoG); Treibich, Tania (RS: GSBE MORSE, Macro, International & Labour Economics) |
| Abstract: | The global fragmentation of production has important implications for the environment. As emerging economies increase their participation in trade, scale effects increase environmental impacts worldwide. Yet at the same time, access to international markets might help offset these impacts by increasing the efficiency of production. Existing literature suggests that trading firms tend to be more energy efficient than non-traders. However, this literature does not take into account the effect of firms’ product baskets. In this paper, we leverage a rich plantand product-level database from India to investigate the effects of importing on plant-level environmental outcomes. We first construct a measure of energy efficiency that is net of effects arising from plants’ product baskets. We then use an event study set up to compare outcomes between importers and future importers at the time of their entry into import markets. Our design takes advantage of plants’ staggered entry into importing to address issues of selection. Our findings suggest that after they start importing, plants experience increases in their energy intensity. Plants which start importing also grow larger and more productive, and diversify their product baskets. Our results suggest that access to international markets leads to gains in scale and productivity, but not in environmental performance. This finding suggests that there is an environmental cost to learning and product diversification. |
| JEL: | D22 F10 F14 F18 O11 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2025009 |
| By: | Uribe-Terán, Carlos; Grijalva, Diego F.; Gachet, Iván |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of safeguard import tariffs on market diversity in Ecuador from 2015 to 2017. Using firm-level data, we estimate the effects of tariffs on revenue and market shares in the Manufacturing and Wholesale & Retail (W&R) sectors with a Quantile Treatment Effect on the Treated (QTT) estimator. We also assess firm exit probabilities and pass-through effects on prices through a difference-in-differences approach. By linking firm-level QTT estimates to industry-level diversity measures, we construct counterfactual revenue distributions to quantify the effect on market concentration. We find that tariffs disproportionately reduced revenue and market shares for smaller firms, significantly increasing exit rates and reducing market diversity, with stronger effects in W&R. While tariffs did not generate broad inflationary pressures, they induced short-term pass-through effects that further strained smaller firms. These sector-specific price responses reinforced market consolidation, accelerating the decline in market diversity. |
| Keywords: | market structure;trade policy;Protectionism;emerging markets |
| JEL: | D40 F13 F14 O24 O54 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14063 |
| By: | Banao, Fawzi |
| Abstract: | In resource-rich African countries, the illicit trafficking of mineral resources poses a growing threat to state stability and governance. Therefore the paper investigates the effect of gold customs fraud on military spending, using a panel dataset of 50 African countries from 2000 to 2019. Employing an instrumental variable strategy, we find that higher levels of gold customs fraud are significantly associated with lower military expenditures. These findings suggest that illicit resource flows erode governments' tax mobilization and undermine their ability to respond to defense needs. The results are robust across multiple econometric specifications, including system GMM, and Jackknife estimation. |
| Keywords: | Military spending, Gold customs fraud, Illicit natural resource trade |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:315363 |
| By: | Ernest Liu (Princeton University); Yukun Liu (Rochester University); Vladimir Smirnyagin (University of Virginia); Aleh Tsyvinski (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of supply chain disruptions on U.S. firms based on the universe of seaborne shipment-level import transactions from 2013 to 2023. The granularity of the data allows us to build an index of firm-level disruptions of international suppliers and introduce a comprehensive set of stylized facts for supply chain relationships in the cross-section of firms. We build a general equilibrium heterogeneous firms model with two types of capital stocksÑphysical and international supplier capitals. Accumulation of supplier capital is an important endogenous margin of adjustment, and limiting this ability substantially delays recovery, especially in financially constrained firms. |
| Date: | 2024–02–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2402r1 |
| By: | Eoin T. Flaherty (Geary Institute for Public Policy, University College Dublin and Department of Finance, Ireland); Sean O'Boyle (National Treasure Management Agency, Ireland); Giselle Myles (Central Statistics Office, Ireland) |
| Abstract: | This paper adds to our understanding of the sectoral interlinkages in the Irish economy and how it relates to the wider EU economy. While the Irish economy is highly concentrated on a GVA basis, it is much less concentrated on the basis of employment and input-output interdependencies. Except for GVA, this level of concentration has not changed much over time. The MNE and domestic sectors each account for close to half of economic output. Their activity is very different but there is still a sizeable interlinkage between them. We also examine the interlinkages of the EU economy. Increasing European strategic autonomy would require greater manufacturing output. Our model suggest that central and eastern member states would benefit most from doing so, relative to their size. Ireland would benefit seventh least. Splitting the Irish economy in two, we find the MNE sector would benefit more than the EU average while the domestic sector is amongst those to benefit least. |
| Keywords: | network analysis, IO tables, macroeconomic measurement, multinational firms, macroeconomic aspects of international trade, globalisation |
| JEL: | C45 E01 D57 E01 F23 F4 F62 |
| Date: | 2025–01–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucd:wpaper:202503 |
| By: | Johnson, Michael E.; Williams, Angelica; Valdes, Constanza; Ajewole, Kayode; Beckman, Jayson |
| Abstract: | Global demand for chicken meat has grown more than fivefold since the 1960s, from 6.2 to 33.9 pounds per person today. The expansion of broiler production to meet this growing demand has also increased the need for feed. However, the demand for feed is complex, as these feedstuffs are also used for human consumption and biofuels, and broiler farmers tend to be risk averse for input prices. This study looks at how the increased demand for broiler feed may have affected the demand for feed alternatives among some of the world’s major broiler producing countries when faced with uncertain global feed prices and rising feed costs. The study examines these countries’ willingness to substitute sorghum for corn and what this substitution means for future sorghum exports from the United States. Results indicate a high substitution effect of sorghum for corn may have occurred over this period when price risk is considered. Whenever the price of sorghum fell sufficiently below that of corn and if corn prices were more volatile, risk-averse broiler producers shifted to sorghum. Countries that strongly showed this behavior are China, the United States, Egypt, and, to some degree, Mexico. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries, Productivity Analysis, Research Research Methods/Statistical Methods, Risk and Uncertainty, Supply Chain |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersrr:356238 |
| By: | Haug, Sebastian; Novoselova, Anna; Klingebiel, Stephan |
| Abstract: | The United States of America has long been a leading force in international development cooperation, both politically and financially. However, the first weeks of the second Trump administration have called the traditional role of US foreign aid fundamentally into question. From a 90-day funding freeze to the withdrawal from United Nations (UN) bodies and the dismantling of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), measures taken by Trump and his team are not only having palpable repercussions on a wide range of humanitarian and development programmes, but they also point to more far-reaching implications. Against this backdrop, this paper presents the contours and discusses the global consequences of Trump's assault on US foreign aid, as of late February 2025. We outline the extant role of the United States as a donor in Section 2 and review the changes announced - and/or implemented - by the current US government in Section 3. Section 4 discusses the implications of US funding cuts for bilateral cooperation, while Section 5 focuses on repercussions on multilateral development work. Section 6 outlines three scenarios on how the ongoing changes in the United States might affect the field of international development. We discuss the possible ramifications of (a) a revamped US approach to foreign aid centring on crude national interests, (b) a US retreat that is at least partially offset by other providers and (c) a US retreat without other providers stepping in. Section 7 concludes by discussing the implications for dealing with the second Trump administration. We outline four recommendations that address stakeholders across the - increasingly outdated - donor-recipient divide: (1) refining development cooperation approaches, (2) strengthening the multilateral development system, (3) promoting Southern self-reliance and (4) fostering alliances beyond a Trump-led US government. |
| Keywords: | USA, USAID, foreign aid, development cooperation, development policy, Donald Trump, United Nations, multilateralism |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:313624 |
| By: | Diana Carolina Garcia Rojas; Nishant Yonzan; Christoph Lakner |
| Abstract: | Global income inequality captures income differences among all individuals around the world. Global inequality around the world increased from 1820 to 1990 as incomes in richer countries grew faster than incomes in relatively poorer countries. However, these trends were reversed over the three decades starting in 1990. Inequality among all citizens of the world decreased as populous and relatively poorer countries, in particular China, reduced the income gap with richer parts of the world. Growth in average incomes played a critical role in this reduction, with differences within countries contributing relatively little. The Covid-19 pandemic abruptly halted the reduction in global income inequality and was responsible for the largest increase in global income inequality in at least three decades. The future of global inequality largely depends on how incomes grow in various parts of the world. If the trends of the last three decades continue, inequality may increase as growth in those countries that drove the reduction in inequality now contributes to increasing inequality, since these countries are in the upper part of the global distribution. However, if poorer countries today grow faster than their richer peers, global inequality could continue to fall. Climate adaptation and mitigation challenges will play an increasing role in shaping country-level growth trends and thus the changes in global income inequality. |
| Date: | 2025–03–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11093 |
| By: | Tesseltje de Lange; Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Maryna Tverdostup (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This policy brief draws on the findings of Tverdostup et al. (2025) to examine Austrian firms’ responses to labour shortages through automation and migration. Like many European nations, Austria has been grappling with labour shortages over the past decade. These shortages have been influenced by demographic shifts, economic cycles and evolving industry demands. Understanding these trends is crucial for formulating effective policy responses, particularly in the realms of migration, education and automation, three policy domains central to our Horizon Europe project formulating a Global Strategy for Skills, Migration and Development (GS4S). The referenced empirical evidence indicates that automation largely complements human labour, notably benefiting low-educated migrants who are not from the European Economic Area (EEA), but posing challenges for highly educated migrant workers. Policy recommendations include improving EU migration policies, streamlining the recognition of qualifications, developing targeted training initiatives, and incentivising responsible automation practices to foster inclusive labour market growth and resilience. |
| Keywords: | automation, labour migration, skills, labour shortages, substitution, EU |
| JEL: | F22 O15 K37 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:95 |
| By: | Emilija Jankovic, Stojan Jankovic and Andrea Jovic; Emilija Jankovic (National Bank of Serbia); Stojan Jankovic (National Bank of Serbia); Andrea Jovic (National Bank of Serbia) |
| Abstract: | Following S&P’s decision in October 2024 to raise Serbia’s credit rating to investment grade (BBB–) for the first time in its history, the question arises regarding the manner in which changes in the credit rating level and outlook may impact key macroeconomic indicators. For this purpose, we conducted research analysing the short- and long-run impact of change in the rating awarded by the three leading international agencies (S&P, Fitch and Moody’s) on FDI inflow and economic activity in Serbia (approximated by the industrial production index). For the econometric analysis, we used linear and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag models ((N)ARDL) confirming the initial thesis that an improvement in the credit rating can have a significant impact on higher FDI inflow and industrial production growth in Serbia in both short and long run. This supports a more favourable investment and business environment, and a better living standard for citizens, contributing to sustainable economic growth over the long term. |
| Keywords: | credit rating, investment grade, FDI, industrial production, ARDL |
| JEL: | F21 G15 G24 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsb:bilten:30 |
| By: | Philippe Andrade; Alexander Dietrich; John Leer; Raphael Schoenle; Jenny Tang; Egon Zakrajšek |
| Abstract: | Small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) constitute an integral part of the US economy, driving job creation and economic growth. They account for approximately half of private-sector employment and play a crucial role in fostering competition, all the while supporting local communities. This brief uses a new survey of SMB decision-makers to study how US tariff changes could affect businesses’ costs and prices. |
| Keywords: | business expectations; surveys; tariffs; cost-price pass-through; inflation |
| JEL: | E31 F13 F14 F40 C83 |
| Date: | 2025–04–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbcq:99813 |