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on International Trade |
| By: | Kaan Celebi; Werner Roeger |
| Abstract: | The new US administration has a clear agenda of reducing imports to the US and attract FDI by reducing tariffs and using the proceeds for supporting investment in the US. This paper uses a dynamic two country US vs RoW model where monopolistically competitive firms make export and FDI decisions. We study how this additional FDI channel affects the impact of import tariffs on the US and RoW economy. We model both the international supply linkages of domestic producers and subsidiaries of foreign firms as well as EoS of FDI sales with domestic products and imports in order to capture cost and demand channels affecting FDI decisions. Concerning the respective elasticities we use both trade elasticities as well as estimates on the effect of tariffs on the import to inward FDI sales ratio. We are in particular interested how the use of tariff revenues affects the outcome of a tariff. We find that a unilateral US tariff with transfers to households has positive effects on US consumption and leads to rising inward FDI and reduces US imports. However, rising production and investment cost reduce total US investment. A real dollar appreciation cushions the effect of tariffs on RoW exporters but increase the cost for production and investment, generating a negative spillover to the RoW. If tariffs are accompanied by investment subsidies the expansionary effects for the US are significantly larger and total US investment becomes positive. This holds especially for FDI flows to the US. The investment boom generated in the US increases world interest rates. This contributes to larger negative spillovers to the RoW. The use of tariff revenues also affects how the US and RoW are affected in case of (full) retaliation. In case of transfers, the US is hit more since higher openness increases cost of production and investment more in the US. This ranking is reversed in case of subsidies. Higher US openness generates more tariff revenues as a share of GDP and therefore more investment subsidies. |
| Keywords: | international trade, foreign direct investment, import tariffs, USA, two-country open economy model |
| JEL: | F13 F21 F23 F41 O24 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2111 |
| By: | Sonali Chowdhry |
| Abstract: | US trade policy has taken a sharp turn away from multilateralism, with sweeping new tariffs posing a serious threat to global supply chains. As the US remains the EU’s largest export market for goods, these measures carry significant repercussions for the bloc. Exports to the US are heavily reliant on a small number of companies and high-value business relationships—making the EU particularly vulnerable to targeted trade measures. In Germany, the top ten business relationships alone account for a fifth of maritime exports to the US. Intra-company trade also plays a crucial role: One quarter of automotive exports from Germany to the US is between business entities with clear common ownership. Simulations further suggest that a transatlantic tariff conflict would halve EU exports to the US and trigger widespread production losses, with Germany’s GDP contracting by approximately 0.33% in the long term. To limit these economic damages and build long-term resilience, the EU should accelerate its export diversification by deepening trade ties with Free Trade Agreement partners and enhancing integration within the single market. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwfoc:11en |
| By: | Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki |
| Abstract: | Abstract The United States has proposed large tariff increases, which will probably also apply to the EU. The majority of exports from both Finland and the EU to the United States consist of goods, which would be subject to customs duties. Conversely, the bulk of US exports to the EU are services. Consequently, the EU’s retaliatory actions targeting US service exports would be more effective than counter tariffs on imports of goods alone. Roughly estimated, Finland’s GDP would fall by 0.5–1.6% if the US raised tariffs on all products to 25%. |
| Keywords: | Trade, Trade policy, Tariff, Geoeconomics, the United States |
| JEL: | F15 F12 F41 L5 |
| Date: | 2025–03–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:155 |
| By: | Jelliffe, Jeremy; Gerval, Adam |
| Abstract: | Brexit marked the beginning of a new era in European trade, with implications for global commerce as the United Kingdom has sought to broaden its import sources for agricultural commodities. Since formally leaving the European Union on January 31, 2020, the United Kingdom has kept strong, but weakening, trade links to the European bloc. This analysis seeks to quantify the degree of change in the trade dynamic across a range of agri-food and related commodity groups. This analysis is done by measuring the difference in trade trends between United Kingdom and the European Union relative to the rest of the world and their average bilateral trade over the last decade. The following is addressed: • Do post-Brexit trends for European Union-United Kingdom agri-food trade differ from their trade with the rest of the world? • Which product categories experienced the largest relative changes? Key findings include: • United Kingdom trade openness is high in agri-food relative to other regions but has contracted since 2016. • Relative to trade with the rest of the world, rates of agri-food trade growth in the European Union and the United Kingdom suggest that both regions are diversifying to other trading partners despite observed increases in bilateral trade. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Research Research Methods/Statistical Methods, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uerseb:355527 |
| By: | Zgovu, Evious; Morrissey, Oliver |
| Abstract: | This paper provides estimates of the potential for East African Community (EAC) member countries to increase exports to the rest of Africa as the other countries reduce tariffs under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), using a simple approach to identify the markets (countries) and products most likely to benefit considering only growth of existing imports from the EAC. The assumption is that EAC member countries have evident export capacity in such products and markets, and that these products are unlikely to be excluded from liberalization by importing countries. The results suggest that the EAC could expand exports overall by 10-15%, largely concentrated in relatively close countries, and agriculture and resource-based products, but with basic manufactures. Relatively distant markets in North and West Africa offer reasonable potential to EAC countries, except Rwanda (concentrated on the Democratic Republic of Congo - DRC) and Tanzania (concentrated on Southern Africa). The EAC can anticipate moderate gains from AfCFTA and, by identifying the markets and products most likely to be affected, the study provides a guide to policy makers in EAC countries on sectors to target in supporting exports, including products that could target new distant markets (that include some basic manufactures). Textiles and apparel offer the best potential to engage in regional value chains. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:713bbf40-a893-4e79-87bf-eb58ac32c3a2 |
| By: | Paola Conconi; Fabrizio Leone; Glenn Magerman; Catherine Thomas |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a new explanation for the dominance of multinational corporations (MNCs) in international trade: after being acquired by an MNC, firms face lower entry frictions in countries in which their global parent already has a presence. We provide a model of firms’ export and import choices that delivers firm-level gravity regressions to isolate these “MNC network effects” from other channels through which multinationalownership can affect firms’ trade participation. We estimate the model combining rich administrative data for Belgium with data on MNCs’ global affiliate networks. Event study results reveal that acquired firms are more likely to start exporting to and importing from countries that belong—or that are exogenously added—to their parental network. The effects are stronger when new affiliates are geographically and culturally close to their direct parent, which can facilitate transfer of information about the global parent’s network. Combining the structure of our model with the empirical estimates, we find that MNC network effects have a large impact on firm growth. The effects of MNC ownership extend beyond the boundaries of the multinational: new affiliates are also more likely to start trading with countries that are geographically and culturally close to the MNC network, even if their parent has no affiliates there. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/389310 |
| By: | Lu Han |
| Abstract: | Exporters frequently change their set of destination markets. This paper proposes a new approach to identifying the underlying drivers of changes in exporters’ market decisions over time. The approach exploits information on the price and quantity of the changes in firms’ continuing markets, to uncover the microshocks that drive firms’ market changes. Applying the method to customs data from China (2000-2006) and the UK (2010-2016), I find consistent results showing that most firm- and firm-product-level market changes are driven by demand-related shocks, with a nontrivial proportion of these changes being correlated across markets. |
| Keywords: | International topics; Economic models; Firm dynamics; Trade integration |
| JEL: | F14 F12 L11 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:25-11 |
| By: | Hiroaki MORI; Kiho MUROGA; Akira SASAHARA |
| Abstract: | Using the sharp increase in trade with China from 1995 to 2005 as a natural experiment, we examine the impact of international trade on Japan’s labor market and family formation. By exploiting sectoral differences in gender ratios and spatial variations in sectoral specialization, we construct gender-specific exposure measures to import competition from China and export opportunities to China and examine their effects. Our results show that import competition adversely affected manufacturing employment, reduced labor force participation, and increased unemployment rates, while export opportunities had the opposite effects. These labor market impacts were particularly pronounced among young individuals in their 20s and 30s. Additionally, we find that a trade-induced improvement in women’s relative labor market conditions increased the share of never-married men and women in their 30s and early 40s. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25031 |
| By: | Omisakin, Olusegun; Adekunle, Wasiu; Vincent, Oluwaseyi; Erumebor, Wilson; Taiwo, Shakirudeen; Iyoha, Faith; Olofin, Sodik; Oluwaserantimi, Ore |
| Abstract: | Over the years, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows are often associated with the increased availability of a robust workforce. This is because FDI assists recipient countries in building human capital through technology and knowledge transfer. However, emerging trends indicate that motive(s) guiding FDI inflow immensely influence its role in capacity building activities of the available workforce in the host country. In Nigeria, recent FDI inflows are becoming more sensitive to the characteristics of the country's labour force. In the past years, FDI inflows usually focus on the oil-sector - resource-seeking activities, which have resulted in little or zero gains for the country in terms of employment creation, capacity building for the existing workforce, and insignificant human capital gains. |
| Date: | 2024–04–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:6c661c41-7c46-46dc-956c-ec2989e74411 |
| By: | De Melo, Jaime; Solleder, Jean-Marc |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the likely effects of tariff reductions under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. It proceeds in three steps, with all estimates relying on the most recent, i.e. 2015, disaggregated data on emissions intensities. First, we show that, across African countries, CO2 intensities are higher in the more protected sectors, so that, at unchanged emission intensities, tariff elimination on intra-African trade during AfCFTA should favour CO2 intensive activities. Second, for the EAC and ECOWAS, the two RECs for which AfCFTA-compliant tariff reduction schedules are available, we estimate that removing tariffs on goods in the tariff elimination list would reduce progressively the carbon intensity of trade for these goods. The estimates suggest that an increase of 1% of the emission intensity is associated with a decrease of about 0.09% of the MFN tariff. Third, to see which effect will dominate, we estimate partial equilibrium effects of full tariff elimination under AfCFTA and find that intra-African trade would increase by 32% and emissions embedded in trade by 24%, implying a CO2 elasticity to trade of 0.74, thus, reducing the CO2 emission intensity of Intra-African trade. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:77a7d84a-0c8e-4b20-b1c1-a89ee8d596c8 |
| By: | Tim de Leeuw; Konstantin M. Wacker (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Foreign direct investment (FDI) is often seen as a means to boost domestic investment and, hence, capital accumulation. Yet, the empirical support for such a positive investment effect of FDI is inconclusive. A possible reason is that FDI is often directed towards the financial sector, where capital investment tends to be low. In this paper, we first explore the within-industry relationship between FDI and domestic investment. We then use a novel approach to analyse how FDI into the financial sector transmits into domestic investment by non-financial industries. Using industry-level FDI and investment data from 12 Central and Eastern European countries between 1997 and 2019, we find that about a quarter of FDI into an industry results in domestic investment. Additionally, we document that industries with close links to the financial sector increase domestic investment in the presence of financial FDI, particularly manufacturing, trade and real estate. |
| Keywords: | investment, capital formation, FDI, foreign direct investment, inter-industry linkages |
| JEL: | F21 F3 E22 O11 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:261 |
| By: | Seda Koymen Ozer (Baskent University, Ankara, Turkey); Alessia Lo Turco (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (UNIVPM)); Daniela Maggioni (Department of Economics, Catholic University of the Sacred) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how the import of automation impacts upgrading within firm production networks. We use comprehensive data on product mix, foreign trade, balance sheets, employment, and firm-to-firm transactions for Turkish manufacturing firms from 2009 to 2020. By employing Propensity Score Matching (PSM) alongside event study analyses and an instrumental variable (IV) approach, our research provides robust evidence that firms importing automation enhance the quality and lower quality-adjusted prices of their products. Importantly, the benefits of automation extend downstream throughout the supply chain to firms sourcing inputs from suppliers that have adopted automation. No significant effects propagate, instead, to upstream firms supplying automation adopters. |
| Keywords: | buyer-supplier links, product upgrading, manufacturing, Turkiye |
| JEL: | O14 F61 F63 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wpaper:495 |
| By: | Salvatore Carrozzo; Elisabetta Lodigiani; Alessandra Venturini |
| Abstract: | The consumption of cultural goods can play a crucial role in the social and economic integration of immigrants into their destination country. In this paper, we investigate the effect of the cultural national program, IoStudio, designed to enhance the consumption of cultural goods - by providing free or discount access - among upper secondary students in Italy, on post-secondary investment in education and early labor market conditions among young immigrants. Using data from a unique survey conducted by the Institute for Multiethnic Studies (ISMU) on a representative sample of the entire immigrant population in the Italian Lombardy region and employing a difference-in differences estimator, we find that the IoStudio policy has positive effects on investment in post-secondary education. Additionally, young foreigners exposed to the policy exhibit higher earnings, at least in the short run, when they enter the labour market. We claim that cultural consumption by immigrants is a relevant concern, deserving close attention in terms of increasing social capital and labour market inclusion. |
| Keywords: | Cultural participation; migrants; integration; Italy |
| JEL: | Z11 J61 J62 I26 |
| Date: | 2025–03–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csl:devewp:501 |
| By: | Lisandra Flach; Andreas Baur |
| Abstract: | Key MessagesUS President Donald Trump has recently announced 25% tariffs on US imports from Canada and Mexico. A simulation analysis using a quantitative framework shows that Trump’s tariffs would hit the manufacturing sector of the US’s North American neighbors particularly hard.In the event that Mexico and Canada impose symmetric retaliatory tariffs, all sectors of the economy (services, agriculture, and manufacturing) would incur permanent value-added losses.In Mexico and Canada, manufacturing has the largest decline in value added, 13% and 14%, respectively.For the US economy, agriculture has the largest decline in value added (-2.39%), but other sectors of the economy also incur permanent losses.In the event of retaliation, Canada would have to expect a long-term permanent decline in total exports of up to 28%, while Mexico could see a drop of more than 35% and the US of 22%. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:econpb:_70 |
| By: | Hoang, Diem |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the impacts of trade liberalization on the marital and fertility choices of women in Vietnam. Applying a regional exposure approach, we leverage the U.S.-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) as an exogenous and positive shock to the nation's export growth. Our results indicate that young women (aged 18-28) in provinces more exposed to export tariff reductions tend to delay marriage and childbirth. In contrast, we observe no significant impact on the marriage and fertility decisions of older women, nor any changes in sex-selective behavior across the general population. Further analysis reveals that this trade shock does not influence women's participation in the labor force or their employment status, nor does it lead to increased gender segregation in the labor market. The observed delay in marriage and fertility among young women may be attributed to a shift from agriculture to manufacturing and women staying longer at schools. |
| Abstract: | In diesem Beitrag werden die Auswirkungen der Handelsliberalisierung auf die Heirats- und Fertilitätsentscheidungen von Frauen in Vietnam evaluiert. Unter Anwendung eines regionalen Expositions-Ansatzes nutzen wir das bilaterale Handelsabkommen (BTA) zwischen den USA und Vietnam als exogenen und positiven Schock für das Exportwachstum des Landes. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass junge Frauen (im Alter von 18 bis 28 Jahren) in Provinzen, die stärker von Exportzollsenkungen betroffen sind, dazu neigen, Heirat und Geburten zu verschieben. Im Gegensatz dazu beobachten wir keine signifikanten Auswirkungen auf die Heirats- und Fertilitätsentscheidungen älterer Frauen und auch keine Veränderungen im geschlechtsspezifischen Verhalten in der Allgemeinbevölkerung. Eine weitere Analyse zeigt, dass dieser Handelsschock weder einen Einfluss auf die Erwerbsbeteiligung von Frauen oder ihren Beschäftigungsstatus hat, noch zu einer verstärkten Geschlechtertrennung auf dem Arbeitsmarkt führt. Die beobachtete Verzögerung bei Heirat und Geburten bei jungen Frauen kann auf eine Verlagerung von der Landwirtschaft zum verarbeitenden Gewerbe und auf einen längeren Schulbesuch der Frauen zurückgeführt werden. |
| JEL: | F61 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:314409 |
| By: | Imbierowicz, Björn; Nagengast, Arne J.; Prieto, Esteban; Vogel, Ursula |
| Abstract: | The pace of globalization has slowed since the global financial crisis, raising concerns about widespread deglobalization and market fragmentation. We examine the effects of a deglobalization shock on bank lending, firm internal capital markets, and the real economy. Leveraging a unique dataset that combines a credit register with foreign direct investment (FDI) data, we are able to observe both domestic and cross-border credit exposures of German banks as well as internal capital market dynamics within multinational corporations (MNCs) - a feature rarely available in other countries' data. We analyze the response to the Brexit referendum shock. On average, German banks reduced lending to United Kingdom (UK) firms following the shock due to increased uncertainty about future losses. More prudent banks reduced their credit more extensively, and less profitable subsidiaries experienced greater reductions. However, UK subsidiaries of large MNCs, with access to internal capital markets, offset this credit supply shock through internal funding, shielding them from negative real effects. We find that non-UK subsidiaries play a crucial role in internal capital markets by securing external financing and reallocating funds to support UK affiliates. Well capitalized banks reallocated lending to firms outside the UK, particularly those of German MNCs. Our findings underscore that while international financial frictions following deglobalization shocks can imply negative real effects, firms integrated into global networks mitigate these impacts through internal capital markets. |
| Keywords: | Bank lending, deglobalization shock, policy uncertainty, real-financial linkages, internal capital markets |
| JEL: | F23 F34 F36 G21 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:314411 |
| By: | naryono, endang (STIE PASIM SUKABUMI) |
| Abstract: | The most crucial challenge that Indonesia faces is the trade challenge created by other countries. Mining products, such as nickel, are often subject to anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures by the European Union. The existence of Law no. 3 of 2020 concerning Amendments to Law No. 4 of 2009 concerning Mineral and Coal Mining mandates the sale of minerals abroad after three years of enactment or 2023. This policy aims to downstream so as to create added value while meeting domestic needs. The mining industry in Indonesia has great potential to be developed through the downstream process. The downstream process carried out in the last two years shows that mining has made a significant contribution to Indonesia's trade balance. This increase in downstream exports has helped create a trade balance and balance of payments surplus which has had a positive impact on the stability of the rupiah exchange rate and macroeconomic indicators. Apart from that, job creation has also increased significantly. "Especially in the Teluk Weda, Obi, Morowali and Konawe areas, where the number of workers reaches tens of thousands and the average salary is above the regional minimum wage. The government's target is to integrate downstreaming to an advanced stage in order to attract greater investment. However, the downstream process is not easy, in fact it faces various challenges that need to be resolved. Such as in the process of downstreaming the mining industry in Indonesia. One of the main challenges is the large investment required. On average, downstream projects in the mining industry have quite large costs, above US$ 1 billion. |
| Date: | 2023–09–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:qhgdb_v1 |
| By: | William Ginn (Labcorp and Coburg University of Applied Sciences); Jamel Saadaoui (University Paris 8) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of political polarization on output growth, capital formation, and foreign direct investment (FDI) across 139 economies via a panel Local Projections (LP) model. We examine whether the effects of political polarization vary by income group (advanced [AEs], emerging markets [EMs]) and by political regimes (democracy, autocracy). Our findings reveal that political polarization negatively affects output growth and capital formation, with adverse effect on FDI in EMs and autocracies, highlighting “hidden” economic costs of polarization. |
| Keywords: | Political polarization, panel local projections, economic development |
| JEL: | E |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inf:wpaper:2025.3 |
| By: | Ferid Belhaj |
| Abstract: | Geopolitical tensions and competing interests define the Eastern Mediterranean's energy landscape. Vast natural gas reserves offer economic potential, but overlapping maritime claims and ongoing conflicts—particularly the Israel-Lebanon war and the Gaza conflict—threaten existing agreements and future projects. The European Union’s efforts to reduce dependence on Russian gas initially positioned the region as a key supplier, but escalating instability now puts these ambitions at risk. Key factors include the impact of conflicts on gas exploration and exports, the roles of Turkey, Egypt, and Qatar, the influence of global powers and multinational corporations, and the uncertain prospects for regional energy cooperation. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb011_25 |
| By: | Waltraut Urban |
| Abstract: | Abstract: The Belt and Road initiative (BRI), introduced by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013, is an economic and geopolitical mega-project that has become a centrepiece of China’s foreign and economic policy. The original goal was to better connect the Asian economies with Europe. However, over time the BRI has changed fundamentally. This Policy Brief will provide an overview of these changes, starting with a rapid extension of the BRI to Africa and Latin America, followed by a certain slowing down of China’s engagement. After the COVID-19 pandemic, a significant change of the pattern of projects can be observed, with a pivot away from large-scale infrastructure projects, a certain ‘multilateralisation’ of projects, and a focus on investments in ‘green energy’ and ‘green technologies’, e.g. batteries. However, securing critical minerals, strategically important transport infrastructure for trade and China’s position in the ‘Global South’ remain important. Therefore, some geopolitical aspects and challenges for Europe and the U.S. as well as possible answers (such as Global Gateway and the Partnership for Global Infrastructure Investment, PGII) are discussed. We will conclude with some remarks on policy options for Europe respectively European and, in particular, Austrian companies. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:pbrief:y:2025:m:03:i:66- |
| By: | Vasily Astrov; Lisa Scheckenhofer; Camille Semelet; Feodora Teti |
| Abstract: | In 2023, Russia experienced a 3.5% economic growth, but forecasts for 2024 indicate a slowdown to 1.5% due to tightened monetary policies and the expected global economic slowdown. Despite large military spending and Western energy sanctions eroding budget revenues, fiscal deficits have been generally kept under control. Intensified scrutiny of third-country firms violating energy sanctions widened discounts on Russian oil prices in late 2023. Generally, Russian import patterns remained relatively stable. In particular, EU exports of economically critical and common high priority goods to Russia in November 2023 represent just 2% of its pre-war levels, underscoring the effectiveness of sanctions in halting direct exports. Besides China and Hong Kong, Türkiye and CIS countries became vital suppliers, meeting Russia's demand for economically critical goods and high-priority items. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:econpr:_47 |
| By: | Leoni Alewell; Pia Heckl |
| Abstract: | Key MessagesIncreased globalization has led to major transformations of labor markets in developed and developing countries.Analyses focusing on aggregate effects of increased import competition and ignoring the structure of the labor market miss important developments.Higher exposure to import competition affects male and female workers in Mexico differently.Displaced workers partly move into informal employment which attenuates negative employment effects.Entrance into the labor market through informal work in periods of lower la-bor demand can lay the foundation for the inclusion of women in the labor force. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:econpb:_69 |
| By: | Mehmet Burak Turgut (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Grzegorz Wesołowski (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the domestic and international transmission of U.S. fiscal news shocks emphasizing the importance of the sentiment channel for the global economy. We identify these shocks using federal government spending forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Employing the local projection method, we find that anticipated increases in U.S. government spending are expansionary domestically, leading to improved sentiment and enhanced financial conditions. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar appreciates, and the U.S. trade balance deteriorates when future fiscal expansion is expected. In the international context, we apply panel local projection models across a broad set of countries and show that positive sentiment and improved financial conditions driven by U.S. fiscal news spill over, stimulating demand and output growth in other economies. However, we find no significant effect of currency depreciation on net exports in a broad sample as rising domestic demand tends to boost imports. In turn, in a subsample of countries with high trade exposure to the U.S., the trade channel becomes significant, while financial channel diminishes in importance. At the same time, sentiment channel appears to play a significant role in all subsamples. Finally, we find that positive fiscal news shocks have strong stimulating effects (both domestic and international) during US recessions but not in expansions. |
| Keywords: | government spending, news shock, international spillovers, international business cycles |
| JEL: | C32 C33 E32 E62 F41 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2025-05 |
| By: | Bayona, Pamela |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the application of Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques to automate Harmonized System (HS) tariff line transposition, employing a three-stage process: unique 1:1 tariff code matching (Round 1), exact description matching (Round 2), and "smart" description matching (Round 3) using Artificial Intelligence (AI) and lexical similarity methods paired with harmonized 6- digit concordance and cosine similarity. Similarity is calculated using either Term Frequency Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF) vectors or Sentence-BERT (SBERT) embeddings, comparing two scenarios: a straightforward case (Economy A) with standardized descriptions, and a complex case (Economy B), with more detailed technical descriptions. Results indicate that automated HS transposition can significantly augment the efficiency of traditionally manual methods, reducing processing time from two to three weeks to approximately half a day (up to 30 times faster). The overall accuracy rate is 99.6% for the simpler scenario and 98.8% for the complex one, for a standard set of approximately 10, 000 HS codes. While non-AI techniques cover most of the accurate matches, AI-based Round 3 techniques address cases requiring the most manual effort. SBERT generally outperforms TF-IDF, however including subheadings tends to reduce its accuracy. In certain cases, particularly for highly technical tariffs, TF-IDF's straightforward approach provides an advantage over SBERT. Overall, NLP techniques hold significant potential for improving HS transposition methods and facilitating the development of richer tariffs and trade datasets to enable more in-depth analyses. Future research should focus on refining these techniques across diverse datasets to optimize their broader application in tariff and trade data analysis. |
| Keywords: | Harmonized System, tariff line, HS transposition, correlation tables, concordance, natural language processing |
| JEL: | F10 F13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wtowps:314422 |
| By: | Glyn Wittwer |
| Abstract: | This paper describes a method of combining national GTAP regions with sub-national detail. The approach extends the sub-national TERM methodology to create a family of models named GlobeTERM. In each model, the master database includes 74 sectors, based on GTAP with electricity split into 9 generation sectors plus a distribution sector. The other 64 sectors are those in on GTAP version 11c. In most examples, one country within GTAP is split into sub-national regions, while retaining the other 159 GTAP regions in the master database. Examples include China, Germany, UK and USA. Another version represents Europe's regions at the NUTS-2 level. Using the US version of GlobeTERM, an illustrative simulation examines the impacts of the imposition of large bilateral tariffs between USA and China. The aggregation for this scenario depicts swing states separately. While almost all US regions lose in the short run from the imposition of high bilateral tariffs, there are winning and losing states in the long run. |
| Keywords: | Computable general equilibrium, regional economics, tariffs |
| JEL: | R15 C68 D58 B17 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-350 |
| By: | Diallo, M.A; Diallo, S. CRES. |
| Abstract: | Senegal is one of the sub-Saharan African countries that has the highest number of emigrants. In 2019, out of a population of close to 16 million people, 640 thousand people that were born in Senegal, lived in another country, of which 45% were to be found in Africa, and 48% in Europe. The main factor that influences migration is the search for better standards of living and employment; wages, social security and employment opportunities being drivers for migration. A focus on Economic issues related to return migrants is important for two reasons: The first is that a significant number of return migrants (37%) consider migrating once more just six months after their return to Senegal. The second is that there are very few studies on the subject. This policy brief aims to fill this gap by examining the impact of return migration on professional insertion in Senegal. |
| Date: | 2024–04–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:05f5f129-7159-4f71-b5b4-abfae8526bac |
| By: | Rod Tyers (University of Western Australia Business School, Perth, Australia) |
| Abstract: | Motivation is offered for the scenario in which a large country imposing a general tariff, notwithstanding gains toward fiscal balance, suffers a contraction in output and employment, with output and net welfare effects that depend on monetary policy and are generally larger than the associated undergraduate dead-weight efficiency losses. A global model is then used to simulate the effects of such a tariff, demonstrating that, while trading partners would be hurt by the tariff, the US economy would also suffer a contraction. The size of the net welfare effects is shown to depend importantly on targets of monetary policy and their associated inflation rates. Nonetheless, the tariff effects are also shown to be dwarfed by those of a proposed business tax break, which redirects investment to the US and would yield larger domestic gains and foreign punitive losses. |
| Keywords: | tariffs, tax breaks, monetary policy |
| JEL: | F3 E5 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:25-02 |
| By: | Korhonen, Iikka; Simola, Heli; Solanko, Laura |
| Abstract: | Three years of war, sanctions and Russia's isolation from the global community have changed its economy in many ways. Some changes such as the degraded business environment and increased government presence in the economy are likely to persist. War has also exacerbated Russia's already poor demographic trends. While a break in the war and relaxation of sanctions would eventually at least partially reinvigorate Russian trade with the European Union and other economic blocs, Russia's heavy dependence on China undoubtedly continues. An end to the war, even an ugly end, would reduce pressure for public sector spending and help Russia get inflation back under control. A prolonging of the war and continuation of the current sanctions regime would mean further increases in public spending as sustaining the war is non-negotiable for the current government. Inflation would remain high and economic imbalances worsen. In all our scenarios, Russia's share of the global economy continues to decline. Russia, however, has the resources it needs to continue the war, the desire to fund its armed forces and the commitment to support its military-industrial complex come what may. |
| Keywords: | Russia, economy, war, sanctions |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:312567 |
| By: | Ngepah, Nicholas |
| Abstract: | Le conflit actuel en Ukraine a eu des consequences profondes au-dela des frontieres du pays, notamment sur la securite alimentaire et nutritionnelle dans dautres parties du monde. Il a perturbe les marches cerealiers mondiaux, en particulier ceux du ble et du mais, car lUkraine en est un grand exportateur. En 2013/14, lUkraine etait le sixieme producteur mondial de ble et en 2019/20, elle a exporte environ 18, 5 millions de tonnes de ble, soit 16 % des exportations mondiales (World Food Programme [Programme alimentaire mondial], 2022). Le conflit a entraine une baisse de la production agricole, en particulier dans les regions orientales de lUkraine, ou sont cultivees la plupart des cereales du pays. Associee aux perturbations des chaines dapprovisionnement au niveau mondial, cette situation a contribue a laugmentation des prix des cereales sur le marche mondial, avec des effets nefastes sur les pays qui dependent des importations de cereales.LAfrique du Sud et le Mozambique sont deux pays africains qui ont ete touches par la guerre en Ukraine, avec des effets significatifs sur leur propre securite alimentaire. Or la securite alimentaire est une question cruciale pour de nombreux pays en developpement, en particulier ceux de lAfrique subsaharienne, ou la faim et la malnutrition sont tres repandues. LAfrique du Sud et le Mozambique sont tous deux des importateurs nets de cereales et sont donc vulnerables aux fluctuations de leurs prix au niveau mondial. En Afrique du Sud le mais est un aliment de base et le pays depend fortement des importations pour satisfaire ses besoins interieurs. Bien que le Mozambique produise une grande quantite de mais, il importe egalement des quantites importantes de ble et dautres cereales. La hausse des prix de ces produits de base resultant de la guerre en Ukraine a donc eu un impact significatif sur les deux pays. |
| Date: | 2024–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:516a4eb1-6e81-4407-a678-9e056c8e453a |
| By: | Angella Faith Montfaucon; Csilla Lakatos; Bayu Agnimaruto; Jana Mirjam Silberring |
| Keywords: | International Economics and Trade-Trade Policy International Economics and Trade-Trade and Environment Environment-Adaptation to Climate Change |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40925 |