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on International Trade |
| By: | Levelu, Anthonin; Mayda, Anna Maria; Orefice, Gianluca |
| Abstract: | An increasing number of regional trade agreements contains provisions that ease access to visas among member countries, which reduces the administrative cost of crossing the border. Combining United Nations data on bilateral stocks of immigrants in the period 1990-2020 with World Bank data on the content of 279 regional trade agreements, this paper presents robust evidence of a positive effect of visa provisions in regional trade agreements on bilateral migration: the presence of visa provisions in regional trade agreements increases the bilateral stock of immigrants by 5.9 percent. This result is robust to an instrumental variable strategy addressing the endogeneity problem. The effect of the inclusion of visa provisions in regional trade agreements is particularly effective among country pairs with different income levels (such as North-South). For this type of country pairs, the presence of visa provisions in regional trade agreements increases the bilateral stock of immigrants by 13 percent. Finally, the paper shows that the effectiveness of visa provisions in regional trade agreements reduces with the anti-immigration sentiment of voters in the destination. |
| Date: | 2023–02–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10324 |
| By: | Njikam, Ousmanou |
| Abstract: | Today, almost 50% of the world trade involves Global Value Chains (GVCs). New technologies entering GVCs participating firms exports are skill-biased and understanding the job implications in African countries endowed with unskilled workers is vital. Using firm-level panel data in Cameroon, this paper analyses whether GVCs integration and position have contributed to job generation and explores whether firm characteristics such as capital and skill intensity of production influence the GVCs-job relationship. I estimate dynamic labour demand functions for skilled and unskilled workers including sector-level GVCs and their interactions with firm characteristics. GVCs integration and position have no significant impact on any type of job. However, examination of moderator effects yields important results: while forward GVCs and GVCs position hurt both (un)skilled workers in less capital- and skill-intensive firms, backward GVCs have a significantly positive impact on (un)skilled jobs in more capital- and skill-intensive firms, and GVCs participation enhances only unskilled jobs in more capital-intensive firms. The findings are robust to the disaggregation of sectors into manufacturing vs services, high- vs low-GVCs participation, and upstream vs downstream industries and highlight the role of human capital in influencing the GVCs-job nexus in African economies. |
| Date: | 2024–11–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:9c11f70d-4bdd-4c50-8fb6-69738f68ad52 |
| By: | Egger, Peter H.; Masllorens, Gerard |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the effect of preferential trade agreements and their depth on firm ownership, in particular, along global value chains. It measures shareholder-affiliate ownership links at the country-sector-pair level to discern between vertical and horizontal links. The findings show that preferential trade agreements boost vertical international investment links (both backward and forward) while reducing horizontal investment. Deep preferential trade agreements stimulate investment particularly for sector pairs, where a high input specificity prevails. |
| Date: | 2023–02–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10321 |
| By: | Montfaucon, Angella Faith |
| Abstract: | Trade openness is a key factor in making an economy more receptive to technology spillovers from the global market. This paper assesses how trade liberalization and processes of importing affect innovation in Malawi. Two measures of innovation are used at the macro-level: technological processes and products (TPP) and the technological intensity of imports. At the firm-level, four measures are used: new products, new methods, new logistics, and new ideas. At the macro-level, the results suggest that trade liberalization leads to increased imports of technological products, more than other products, and the benefits are relatively larger for imports from outside COMESA. Therefore, there is a limited role for further COMESA trade integration in regard to innovation enhancement from trade. However, when the technological intensity of imports is assessed, high-technology imports would benefit less than primary and resource-based imports regardless of origin, suggesting low absorption of foreign technologies. At the firm level, firms that reported facing obstacles from customs and trade regulations and those that face higher delays in clearing customs are less likely to innovate using all four measures. On the other hand, firms that use foreign-owned technology are more likely to innovate, confirming the channel through which trade impacts innovation. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:ac819120-3d9d-4c1f-802c-eebc9b739f0f |
| By: | Felbermayr, Gabriel Johannes; Teti, Feodora Francesca Angelika |
| Abstract: | Modern regional trade agreements focus on promoting bilateral exchange mostly by lowering non-tariff barriers to trade. But do existing regional trade agreements actually deliver what they promise This paper argues that existing results in the literature are upward biased because of measurement error in a crucial control variable: tariff rates. Using a novel data set of high-quality tariff information, the paper shows that, on average, non-tariff barriers reductions in deep regional trade agreements boost services trade but not goods trade. Estimating separate non-tariff barrier effects for each regional trade agreement reveals strong heterogeneity: only 23 percent of all regional trade agreements seem to lower non-tariff barriers. For most regional trade agreements, we fail to find any significant effect, while 9 percent appear to reduce trade, possibly because a more balanced regulation evens out comparative advantages. The trade agreements that foster trade the most include non-discriminatory trade policy changes. |
| Date: | 2023–02–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10322 |
| By: | , samok66696@rustetic.com |
| Abstract: | Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows play a crucial role in the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region's economic growth, as they contribute capital, technology, managerial expertise, and enhance economic integration among member states. However, FDI distribution across ASEAN countries is uneven, with larger and more open markets receiving a larger share, while smaller or less developed countries attract less investment. This research aims to identify the determinants of FDI inflows in the ASEAN-10 region from 2010 to 2021. A quantitative approach is employed, utilizing panel data regression analysis. The models tested include the Common Effect Model (CEM), Fixed Effect Model (FEM), and Random Effect Model (REM), with the FEM selected as the most appropriate. The results of the partial test reveal that economic growth and regulatory quality positively influence FDI inflows in ASEAN-10, while the Voice and Accountability indicator has a negative effect. Conversely, political stability, government effectiveness, rule of law, and control of corruption do not significantly impact FDI inflows. Overall, these variables account for approximately 87.20% of the variance in FDI flows in the region. The findings suggest that ASEAN countries should formulate more effective policies to attract FDI, particularly by implementing sound economic strategies, enhancing institutional quality, improving the investment climate, and boosting global competitiveness. |
| Date: | 2024–12–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:7ge9z_v1 |
| By: | Bessan, Eudoxie; Ayedoun, Christian |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to analyze the impact of information and communication technologies (ICTs) on bilateral trade flows among sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Utilizing an extended ICT gravity model, the study explores how key ICT indicators influence exports, imports, and trade in manufactured goods. The analysis covers a sample of 35 countries over the period from 2010 to 2019. To address potential over-representation of zero trade flows, the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator is employed. The findings reveal that ICT development, particularly access to mobile telephony, mitigates the effect of distance on trade by facilitating intra-African trade flows. However, the limited availability of ICT infrastructure, especially restricted Internet access, means that physical distance remains a significant barrier to trade. Based on these insights, the study recommends strategic investments in ICT infrastructure and innovation, aimed at reducing transaction costs and improving ICT accessibility. Enhanced regional economic integration is also suggested as a pathway to facilitate these improvements and strengthen trade networks among SSA countries. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:6d8f262b-3e69-4c6a-9831-8af9b8dc3452 |
| By: | Lundberg, Clark Christopher; Szmurlo, Daniel Anthony; Abman, Ryan Michael |
| Abstract: | Reducing trade barriers offers tremendous potential for economic growth and productivity gains. However, higher incomes and increased industrial output can negatively impact the environment. This paper studies the impacts of trade liberalization on the emissions of ozone depleting substances regulated under the Montreal Protocol. While freer trade might challenge the gains achieved by the Montreal Protocol by increasing domestic use of ozone depleting substances, environmental provisions in regional trade agreements linked to Montreal Protocol participation might mitigate such negative environmental outcomes. The paper provides causal evidence that signing a new regional trade agreement leads to increases in consumption of ozone depleting substances relative to Montreal Protocol targets. Environmental provisions aimed at controlling ozone depleting substances offset the increase in consumption of ozone depleting substances observed in regional trade agreements without such provisions. The findings show that the effect is rooted in preventing a “reduction in overcompliance” with the Montreal Protocol observed in regional trade agreements without provisions. The findings also show that cumulative exposure to trade agreements, especially those with ozone depleting substances provisions, increases the speed at which countries ratify the Montreal Protocol amendments. |
| Date: | 2023–02–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10319 |
| By: | , Rojas Daniel; Trejo, Alfredo III; Peters, Margaret E.; Zhou, Yang-Yang (University of British Columbia) |
| Abstract: | When do host governments protect migrants and expand their rights? On February 8, 2021, Colombian President Iván Duque announced a 10-year temporary protected status for over 1.7 million Venezuelan migrants, a policy shift that contrasts with more restrictive migration responses globally. This paper examines the underlying motivations for Colombia's unexpected generosity, identifying three key factors: the pragmatic response to challenges in border control, the economic and legibility benefits of migrant regularization, and the pursuit of international reputation gains. Drawing on interviews with 30 Colombian policymakers, politicians, diplomats, bureaucrats, and NGO leaders, this study offers new insights into the drivers of inclusive migration policies in the Global South. |
| Date: | 2024–12–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:f4j63_v1 |
| By: | Malah-Kuete, Flora Yselle; Avom, Desire |
| Abstract: | This study aims to contribute to the empirical literature on the drivers of Cameroonian firms participation in Global Value Chains (GVCs) by examining the role of innovation. We use logistic regressions and matching techniques to analyse pooled cross-sectional data from the 2008 and 2016 Cameroonian Enterprise Censuses. Our findings indicate that investments in innovation, particularly in machinery and equipment, as well as software and technology, significantly enhance the probability of Cameroonian firms participating in GVCs through subsidiary ties with foreign firms. Building upon these results, we discuss the implications of promoting innovation and making strategic investments in critical sectors of the economy to facilitate greater engagement of local firms in GVCs. |
| Date: | 2024–11–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:8a4f6e2e-f44f-4393-bace-150d332276cb |
| By: | Osabuohien, Evans S.; Karakara, Alhassan Abdul-Wakeel; Edafe, Oluwatosin D. |
| Abstract: | Global value chains (GVC) have become an important developmental issue. However, empirical studies on the peculiar nature of the GVC participation of firms are sparse, especially in West Africa. Thus, this study empirically examines the factors that constitute the major drivers of firm GVC participation and the institutional obstacles to firm GVC participation. The study discusses how such factors could be surmounted. We use the logit model as the empirical strategy and the World Bank's Enterprise Survey (ES) database for two biggest West African countries: Ghana and Nigeria. The findings show that firms in West Africa face constraints that militate against their participation in GVC. Also, we find crucial factors that can influence firms participation in GVC, which differ relatively between Ghana and Nigeria. In essence, medium and large-scale firms have higher likelihood to participate in GVC than small-scale firms. Similarly, the legal status of the firm helps in enhancing the firms participation in GVC, as firms that are shareholding or partnership firms are more likely to participate in GVC than sole proprietorship firms. Also, firm location serves as an advantage to the firm GVC participation, as firms in cities with a human population of over one million are more likely to be engaged in GVC. The finding of the study is relevant to industry players and firms, particularly on the mode of participation in GVC and in helping policy makers in creating a favourable policy ambience for GVC participation of firms, which could enhance corporate relations among domestic firms and international players to spur firms productivity and participation in GVC. |
| Date: | 2024–11–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:f3859c4f-97c5-4116-b6c8-12fcdac38779 |
| By: | Jaud, Melise; Kukenova, Madina; Strieborny, Martin |
| Abstract: | Foreign investors facilitate efficiency-enhancing structural change in the recipient countries. After countries liberalize their stock markets and allow foreign investors to acquire equity stakes in domestic firms, products that do not correspond to the liberalizing countries' comparative advantage disappear disproportionately faster from their export portfolios. At the same time, the overall long-term export performance of the liberalizing countries improves. Domestic stock market development does not have the same disciplining effect in terminating inefficient exports. Foreign investors thus play a unique role in improving resource allocation in the real economy. |
| Date: | 2023–02–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10307 |
| By: | Njikam, Ousmanou; Elomo, Therese Zogo |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether multinational enterprises (MNEs) create high quality jobs than domestic firms in least-developed countries. We argue that the quality of jobs offered by MNEs may differ depending on their two alternative entry modes, that is, greenfields (GRFs) versus joint ventures (JVs). Using 2005-2017 firm-level Cameroonian data, we find that relative to local firms, MNEs offer more secure jobs through lower speeds and greater half-lives of employment adjustment as well as lower elasticity of employment, and they also offer high-wage jobs. GRFs and JVs also offer more secure jobs than local firms, but through different mechanisms, i.e., employment adjustment processes for the former and wage elasticity for the latter, and their generous wage policies differ across skill groups and occupations. In contrast, skill-intensive MNEs and namely GRFs employ less unskilled workers while skill-intensive JVs enhance managerial and technical occupations. We also find that capital-intensive JVs have a significantly positive impact on both non-production and production employment and generate less jobs in managerial and technical occupations. These results hold for the intensity of foreign ownership and firm exit. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:fd1d1549-cd45-4420-95de-f3de4d0570cb |
| By: | Kweka, Josaphat; Sooi, Fadhili |
| Abstract: | Using firm-level data from the recently available Tanzania Enterprise Survey (TES) 2022, this paper provides empirical analysis of drivers of firm participation in global value chains (GVCs), and implication of such participation on firm performance in Tanzania. The findings show that, firm size, awareness of external markets, investment in Research and Development (RandD), and engagement in innovation and technology upgrading are significant drivers of firm participation in GVCs for Tanzania. The paper confirms the widely acclaimed conclusions in the literature that firm participation in GVCs is positively and significantly associated with higher firm performance. However, despite the positive role of GVC, the extent of firm participation appears low for Tanzania, mainly on account of low level of capacity of often small and informal firms. The findings underscore the need to increase government's efforts to improve environment and incentive for small firms to formalize and grow. The results are also supportive of the need for policy to promote regional integration, investment in RandD, innovation, and technology upgrading. |
| Date: | 2024–11–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:014dd339-fb25-4c3f-a81b-d4c2e1f7edb2 |
| By: | Shrestha, Maheshwor |
| Abstract: | This descriptive paper provides a nuanced perspective on the relationship between development and migration, extending the non-parametric analysis in Clemens (2020). A few stylized patterns of migration emerge as countries develop. First, the migration response to development differs by the types of origin and destination countries. As low-income countries develop, their migration to high-income destinations increases slowly but steadily, whereas migration to other low-income or neighboring countries decreases at early levels of development. As middle-income countries develop, their migration to high-income countries increases steadily and plateaus once they reach sufficiently high levels of income. Second, the composition of migrants changes as countries develop. In particular, migrants to high-income destination countries become more educated. Third, the emigration response from middle-income countries is muted for countries with larger populations, particularly toward high-income destinations. These patterns suggest a strong role multiple transformations—such as increasing incomes, increased global integration, a demographic transition, increased human capital, and domestic structural change—play in changing migration patterns as countries develop. The paper explores these migration patterns in light of these transformations. |
| Date: | 2023–02–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10295 |
| By: | Ljubica Nedelkoska; Diego Martin; Alexia Lochmann; Ricardo Hausmann; Dany Bahar; Muhammed A. Yildirim |
| Abstract: | Various factors influence why some countries are more open to immigration than others. Policy is only one of them. We design country-specific measures of openness to immigration that aim to capture de facto levels of openness to immigration, complementing existing de jure measures of immigration, based on enacted immigration laws and policy measures. We estimate these for 148 countries and three years (2000, 2010, and 2020). For a subset of countries, we also distinguish between openness towards tertiary-educated migrants and less than tertiary-educated migrants. Using the measures, we show that most places in the World today are closed to immigration, and a few regions are very open. The World became more open in the first decade of the millennium, an opening mainly driven by the Western World and the Gulf countries. Moreover, we show that other factors equal, countries that increased their openness to immigration, reduced their old-age dependency ratios, and experienced slower real wage growth, arguably a sign of relaxing labor and skill shortages. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2502.16407 |
| By: | Kinuthia, Bethuel Kinyanjui |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the determinants of GVCs participation among manufacturing firms in Kenya. Using the propensity matching method and firm-level cross-sectional data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES) for the period 20072018, the analysis identifies key determinants across the entire manufacturing sector. These determinants are labour productivity, foreign ownership, firm size, website presence, generator use, and transport costs. Additional factors depend on the specific GVC definition applied. The study also reveals that smaller and female owned firms are more susceptible to business environment factors such as security, corruption, and competition with the informal sector compared to larger and male owned counterparts. Furthermore, the study examines factors that influence GVCs participation in the food and chemical sectors, highlighting sector-specific factors which can result in tailored policy recommendations. |
| Date: | 2024–11–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:206048e4-8485-44a6-9635-bd8b798d8e2b |
| By: | Huikuri, Tuuli-Anna |
| Abstract: | How can dissatisfied parties adjust the terms of international cooperation in asymmetric agreements? While powerful states can often effectively demand renegotiation, others may struggle to convince their partners to redistribute the gains from cooperation. Strategic exit, whereby a dissatisfied state conducts unilateral exit from an agreement to initiate new negotiations, may become an attractive option in such situations. This paper investigates the prevalence of strategic exit in the international investment treaty regime, where backlash against investment dispute settlement has led some governments to exit from their bilateral investment treaties. I present evidence from two theory-building case studies of investment treaty terminations and renegotiations by Ecuador and Indonesia, including elite interviews with key policymakers. I show that while exit has successfully led to some new negotiations, dissatisfied governments have been unlikely to exit treaties only for the purposes of catalyzing reform. Rather, exit becomes attractive when domestic political benefits mitigate the international reputational costs of exit. The strategic benefit of terminations for catalyzing new negotiations, although not necessarily sought after by the withdrawing state, more likely emerges as a secondary benefit of exit. The theoretical insights from the investment treaty regime can also inform renegotiation dynamics in other international regimes. |
| Date: | 2024–07–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:ascmh_v1 |
| By: | Alessandria, George; Khan, Shafaat Yar; Khederlarian, Armen; Mix, Carter; Ruhl, Kim J. |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the aggregate effects of supply chain disruptions in the post-pandemic period in a heterogeneous-firm, general equilibrium model with input-output linkages and a rich set of supply chain frictions: uncertain shipping delays, fixed order costs, and storage costs. Firms optimally hold inventories that depend on the source of sup- ply, domestic or imported. Increases in shipping times are contractionary, raise prices, and increase stockouts, particularly for goods intensive in delayed inputs. These effects are larger when inventories are already at low levels. The paper fits the model to the United States and global economies over 2020|2022 and estimates large aggregate effects of supply disruptions. The model predicts that the boost in outpu t from reducing delays will be smaller than the contraction from the waning effects of stimulus. |
| Date: | 2023–02–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10303 |
| By: | Tambunan, Alrin; Wiyono, Satrio Bagus |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the legal frameworks and practical challenges associated with immigration travel documents, including passports, visas, and emergency travel certificates. These documents play a critical role in facilitating international mobility while upholding national security and compliance with immigration laws. The study employs a normative-empirical approach to examine the issuance, use, and management of travel documents in the context of Indonesian immigration regulations and international standards such as the 1951 Refugee Convention and ICAO guidelines. Key findings reveal significant administrative barriers, legal inconsistencies, and human rights concerns, particularly for vulnerable groups like refugees and stateless individuals. The paper concludes with recommendations to enhance global collaboration, streamline administrative processes, and integrate advanced technologies for more effective travel document management. |
| Date: | 2025–01–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:m2euv_v1 |
| By: | Perrot De Champ, Francois Marie Jean Fernand Joseph; Hoekman, Bernard M.; Manchin, Miriam; Santi, Filippo |
| Abstract: | Using a data set covering more than 120 countries spanning several decades, this paper employs a synthetic difference in difference estimator to study whether non-trade provisions on labor standards, environmental protection and civil and human rights in trade agreements yield improvements in corresponding indicators. The paper distinguishes between binding (enforceable) and non-binding provisions and investigates linkages between non-trade provisions and official development assistance. The analysis finds no evidence that provisions related labour or civil rights improved the associated outcome indicators, while evidence on environmental outcomes is mixed. Official development assistance is significantly greater with non-binding environmental and civil rights provisions, but not with labor standards. |
| Date: | 2023–02–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10323 |
| By: | Asada, Hidekatsu |
| Abstract: | Determinants of regional foreign direct investment inflows in China from 2008 to 2019 are analysed in terms of the progress of the marketisation such as non-state-owned sectors’ share of output, investment and employment, the state of price controls in commodity markets, the state of development of factor markets such as finance and labour, and the state of development of the institutional system supporting the market economy system. Additionally, human capital development, infrastructure development and industrial structure are incorporated as control variables. Key results of the analysis of China’s regional FDI inflows include: 1) the progress of marketisation had a positive impact; 2) an increase in per capita GDP had a positive impact, and 3) the increase in the ratio of the secondary industry to GDP had a negative impact, while the tertiary industry had a positive impact. This result reflects the ongoing shift from vertical FDI in export-oriented labour-intensive manufacturing industries to horizontal FDI oriented toward sales to the local market. |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:4xu36_v1 |
| By: | Boustan, Leah Platt (Princeton University and NBER); Jensen, Mathias Fjællegaard (University of Oxford); Abramitzky, Ran (Stanford University); Jácome, Elisa (Northwestern University); Manning, Alan (London School of Economics); Perez, Santiago (University of California, Davis); Watley, Analysia (Princeton University); Adermon, Adrian (Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy (IFAU)); Arellano-Bover, Jaime (Yale University); Aslund, Olof (Uppsala University); Connolly, Marie (University of Melbourne); Deutscher, Nathan (University of Technology, Sydney); Gielen, Anne C. (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Giesing, Yvonne (Ifo Institute for Economic Research); Govind, Yajna (Copenhagen Business School); Halla, Martin (Vienna University of Economics and Business); Hangartner, Dominik (Stanford University); Jiang, Yuyan (University of Cambridge); Karmel, Cecilia (Australian National University); Landaud, Fanny (CNRS); Macmillan, Lindsey (University College London); Martínez, Isabel Z. (KOF Swiss Economic Institute); Polo, Alberto (New York University); Poutvaara, Panu (University of Munich); Rapoport, Hillel (Paris School of Economics); Roman, Sara (IFAU); Salvanes, Kjell G. (Norwegian School of Economics); San, Shmuel (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem); Siegenthaler, Michael (ETH Zurich); Sirugue, Louis (London School of Economics); Espín, Javier Soria (Paris School of Economics); Stuhler, Jan (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Violante, Giovanni L. (Princeton University); Webbink, Dinand (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Weber, Andrea (Central European University); Zhang, Jonathan (McMaster University); Zhang, Angela (University of Sydney); Zohar, Tom (CEMFI) |
| Abstract: | We estimate intergenerational mobility of immigrants and their children in fifteen receiving countries. We document large income gaps for first-generation immigrants that diminish in the second generation. Around half of the second-generation gap can be explained by differences in parental income, with the remainder due to differential rates of absolute mobility. The daughters of immigrants enjoy higher absolute mobility than daughters of locals in most destinations, while immigrant sons primarily enjoy this advantage in countries with long histories of immigration. Cross-country differences in absolute mobility are not driven by parental country-of-origin, but instead by destination labor markets and immigration policy. |
| Keywords: | immigration, intergenerational mobility |
| JEL: | J15 J61 J62 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17711 |
| By: | Muffert, Johanna (FAU Erlangen Nuremberg); Winkler, Erwin (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | We study how the effects of exports on earnings vary across individual workers, depending on a wide range of worker, firm, and job characteristics. To this end, we combine a generalized random forest with an instrumental variable strategy. Analyzing Germany's exports to China and Eastern Europe, we document sharp disparities: workers in the bottom quartile (ranked by the size of the effect) experience little to no earnings gains due to exports, while those in the top quartile see considerable earnings increases. As expected, the workers who benefit the most on average are employed in larger firms and have higher skill levels. Importantly, however, we also find that workers with the largest earnings gains tend to be male, younger, and more specialized in their industry. These factors have received little attention in the previous literature. Finally, we provide evidence that the contribution to overall earnings inequality is smaller than expected. |
| Keywords: | machine learning, earnings, inequality, exports, skills, labor market |
| JEL: | C52 F14 J23 J24 J32 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17667 |
| By: | Jonathan Benchimol (BoI - Bank of Israel); Luigi Palumbo (Bank of Italy - Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This study leverages daily web-scraped data to evaluate the impact of economic sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine on consumer prices and product availability across different goods categories. We find that international sanctions significantly disrupted Russian price dynamics, with the exchange rate serving as the primary transmission mechanism. Utilizing granular online data allows us to circumvent potential misreporting and track real-time economic indicators at high frequency. Our analysis uncovers heterogeneous effects across product groups, with sanctions associated with an average increase of 11.7 percentage points in the Russian CPI. The results highlight how trade policies and geopolitical events can rapidly propagate through retail markets, underscoring the importance of timely price monitoring during periods of economic turbulence. More broadly, we demonstrate the value of online data for evaluating policy shocks, paving the way for similar applications in other contexts. |
| Keywords: | Political economy, Online prices, Product availability, Sanctions, Conflict, Russia, Ukraine |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:emse-04943866 |
| By: | Yaya, Aminou |
| Abstract: | This paper's objective is to analyse the role of fiscal policies and the exchange rate regime in the effect of terms of trade shocks on growth volatility in SSA. To achieve this objective, we use an estimation technique based on instrumental variables (2SLS) for a sample of 44 sub-Saharan African countries covering the period spanning 1980 to 2020. The results show that terms of trade shocks as well as discretionary policy contribute to growth volatility in sub-Saharan Africa. However, fiscal rules reduce the effects of terms of trade shocks and discretionary policy volatility on growth volatility. Furthermore, exchange rate regime fixity tends to positively affect growth volatility. This result implies the need for sub-Sahara African countries to consider fiscal policies, and the nature of the exchange rate regime in their resilience and volatility reduction strategy. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:9c842ab2-4340-4e28-93c0-607d12e69a60 |
| By: | Dube, Benhilda; Nyika, Teresa; Pasara, Michael Takudzwa |
| Abstract: | This study analyses global value chain participation (GVCP) in Zimbabwe's two critical sectors of agriculture and mining in the face of environmental pollution and climate change. Mining and agriculture are Zimbabwe's largest export sectors by value, and the later plays a critical role towards food security. However, the two sectors have potential conflicting interests on land as well as environmental pollution. The study employs the Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) and ARDL-EC (error correction), to analyse short-run and long-run relationships. The results indicate that, in the short run, lagged GVCP agriculture exerts positive pressure on GVCPagriculture by 0.66% while, climate change (droughts) and pollution (CO2 emissions) exert negative pressure on GVCP agriculture at 5% and 1% level of significance, respectively. However, GVCP mining and population growth did not significantly reduce GVCP agriculture. Moreover, GVCP mining and population growth increase transport CO2 emissions both in the short run and long run at 5% and 1% level, respectively. Thus, mining is not environmentally neutral. In the long run, interaction between population growth and mining rents reduce transport CO2 levels at 5% level. The study recommends government to raise mineral taxes for those participating in mining and use the revenues to subsidise the agriculture sector. In the agriculture sector, government can remove import tax on agriculture equipment such irrigation equipment as well as the removal of other restrictions including opening up grain price to market forces to increase quality and level of participation. The government should continue enacting and enforcing policies which minimize pollution, such as limits on carbon emissions. |
| Date: | 2024–11–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:0ad7f4c9-011d-4ab6-b748-ae6e68a079eb |