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on International Trade |
| By: | Matthias Fauth; Benjamin Jung; Wilhelm Kohler |
| Abstract: | We investigate the systematic complementarities between import and export activities of firms using a novel firm-level data set for Germany. Specifically, we examine whether firms that import more are also inclined to export more, decomposing this relationship into extensive country and product as well as intensive margins of trade, with separate analyses for goods and services. By analyzing conditional correlations, the paper quantifies the role of imports in explaining exports. This complements prior studies that largely focused on either exporting or importing activities in isolation, or on specific trade liberalization episodes. We find robust evidence of import-export complementarities. Such complementarities exist for both, goods trade and, though to a lesser extent, between services trade and goods trade. |
| Keywords: | firm-level trade, margin decomposition, import-export complementarity, goods and services trade, Germany |
| JEL: | F23 F14 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11673 |
| By: | Sebastian Franco Bedoya; Woori Lee |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of the Central America–Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement on trade among member countries. It uses the structural gravity model to estimate both the aggregate and heterogeneous effects across countries and sectors. The findings show that the agreement increased intraregional trade among Central American countries by 27 percent. The impact on Central American exports to the United States was smaller but positive, while the effect on US exports to Central America was insignificant. The paper highlights the importance of controlling for member-specific globalization dynamics as well as using domestic trade flows to capture the effects of specific trade agreements. Studying dynamic effects, the paper shows that anticipation effects were important for the Central America–Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement and trade creation effects strengthened over time. |
| Date: | 2024–10–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10951 |
| By: | Maczulskij, Terhi |
| Abstract: | Abstract This study examines whether non-native workers contribute to firms’ export growth, using matched data spanning nearly three decades and covering the entire workforce and all manufacturing firms. The estimation strategy relies on the timing of a firm’s first non-native hire, constructing counterfactuals from otherwise similar firms that hire non-native workers a few years later. The results indicate that nonnative employment is associated with increased total exports, greater trade with workers’ home countries, and a higher number of exported products. These findings remain robust when addressing potential endogeneity concerns, such as the simultaneity of hiring decisions and broader export growth strategies. |
| Keywords: | Firm-level, Hiring, Immigrant, Trade |
| JEL: | F14 F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2025–02–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:wpaper:126 |
| By: | Hunter L. Clark |
| Abstract: | With new tariffs on China back in the headlines, this post seeks to offer some perspective on how much China’s exports have really been affected by multiple rounds of U.S. tariffs and export restrictions over the past seven years. The key takeaway is that U.S. imports from China have decreased by much less than has been reported in official U.S. statistics. As a result, the recent tariff increase on China could have a larger impact on the U.S. economy than is suggested by official U.S. data on the China import share, especially if favorable tariff treatment for direct-to-consumer imports is ended. |
| Keywords: | China; trade; tariff |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2025–02–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:99617 |
| By: | Abreha, Kaleb; Gladys Lopez-Acevedo |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses patterns and drivers of current trade restructuring and its welfare implications. The main trade restructuring drivers include lower cost advanced technologies, rising offshore labor costs, and recent shocks like COVID-19, trade disputes, and geopolitical tensions. Data on bilateral trade flows show that the United States and the European Union have reoriented their trade relationships. Between 2017 and 2023, for example, U.S. imports from countries like Mexico and Viet Nam grew significantly, whereas imports from China and Japan declined significantly. Market reallocation stems from tariffs, trade restrictions, and large-scale industrial policies. Countries with greater competitiveness, high logistics capabilities, and technological readiness are emerging as new production hubs. Additionally, restructuring is having significant welfare effects. Automation has increased reshoring and increased wage inequality between high- and low-skilled workers in offshoring countries, reduced export demand, and led to job and income losses in offshore countries. Furthermore, protectionist measures have, predictably, decreased welfare. U.S.-China trade tensions, for example, raised U.S. consumer costs, reduced product variety, generated small tariff revenue, and forced exporters to absorb most of the retaliatory tariffs. Looking ahead, more evidence is needed on the long-run effects from restructuring and its effects on welfare. Meanwhile, policy dialogue should focus on preventing trade fragmentation and mitigating adverse welfare effects. |
| Date: | 2024–10–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10955 |
| By: | Ana Maria Santacreu; Ashley Stewart |
| Abstract: | FDI in major economies such as China has grown steadily while FDI in tax havens has stabilized or declined amid a global rise in investment abroad. |
| Keywords: | foreign direct investment; tax havens; China |
| Date: | 2025–02–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:99539 |
| By: | Arpita Mukherjee (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Pritam Banerjee; Aahana Srishti |
| Abstract: | The paper presents the discussions on e-commerce in the WPEC and the JSI. It presents India's position in the WTO and trade agreements, its concerns, domestic regime and negotiating strategies and options. It provides data driven analysis of the impact of the moratorium on India's e-commerce trade and suggests why digital taxation may be better than a tariff for revenue collection. It compares India's autonomous regime (AR) with JSI obligations. It analyses trade agreements across parameters related to cross-border e-commerce trade, with a focus on agreements in the APAC region, in terms of their scope, coverage and depth of commitments. The paper concludes by providing a roadmap to move forward with discussions in the JSI and recommendations for India to find its stand in global negotiations. |
| Keywords: | E-commerce, India, Trade Agreements, Cross-border Trade, WTO, icrier |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:wpaper:426 |
| By: | Woubet Kassa; Ndubuisi, Gideon; Owusu, Solomon |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the discussion on Africa's pathways to economic transformation by examining the roles of trade patterns—specifically, South-South and North-South trade—focusing on intermediate and capital goods sourced from both the Global North and the Global South. The paper relies on a panel dataset comprising 44 African countries from 2000 to 2022. To address endogeneity concerns, it uses a two-stage least squares method, employing instrumental variables that leverage exogenous changes in trading partner conditions. Findings from the analysis indicate that imported capital and intermediates significantly predict economic transformation in Africa. However, the impact of imports from the Global North and the Global South varies depending on the specific channel of economic transformation. Imports from the Global South are more influential in driving structural change, while those from the Global North are more effective in facilitating productivity convergence. This divergence highlights the distinct roles that North-South and South-South trade play in Africa’s economic transformation agenda. The findings underscore the importance of a nuanced trade policy that leverages the strengths of both regional and global trade partners to advance Africa's economic transformation. |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10896 |
| By: | Kokas, Deeksha; Roche Rodriguez, Jaime Alfonso; Gladys Lopez-Acevedo; Robertson, Raymond; Wendy Karamba |
| Abstract: | Cambodia’s rapid economic growth in the past few decades has coincided with trade liberalization and structural transformation. This growth has been extensively associated with more employment, higher wages, shared prosperity, and poverty reduction. By combining two complementary approaches, the gravity model and the Bartik model, this paper estimates: (i) the relationship between trade agreements and trade flows, and (ii) the relationship between trade exposure and various local labor market outcomes. The gravity estimates show that trade agreements between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations are positively related with trade flows, and that Cambodia’s specific gains from these increases in trade have been larger than for the average trade agreement. This has led to better results for workers in Cambodia’s local labor markets. The shift-share Bartik results suggest that increases in trade exposure in Cambodian districts between 2009 and 2019 correlate with reduced informality and an increase in hours worked, with more positive effects for female workers. |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10895 |
| By: | Spirin, Victor |
| Abstract: | The main models of international economics categorically assert that free trade benefits all countries, including underdeveloped ones. However, these models are based on assumptions that are totally inadequate for the technological era: the equivalence of highly skilled labor, which also utilizes the most advanced technologies, and unskilled labor, which uses primitive tools and produces Stone Age products. This paper once again examines the most fundamental of all models of international trade: Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage. An extremely instructive example of “proof” of the benefits of free trade for all participants is analyzed, based on complete disregard for the difference in highly skilled and low-skilled labor. It is shown that the universal equivalence of unit of labor is a necessary condition for the mutual benefit of free trade in Ricardo's model. If the value of a unit of labor is differentiated by the qualifications of the workforce, then trade liberalization leads to a decrease in the well-being of the country specializing in primitive types of economic activity. |
| Keywords: | Vanek-Reinert effect, free trade, macroeconomic effects of globalization |
| JEL: | F00 F60 F62 F63 |
| Date: | 2025–02–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123541 |
| By: | Hiau Looi Kee; Enze Xie; Xu, Mingzhi |
| Abstract: | Since 2000, China has been upgrading its infrastructure, exemplified by the expansion of the high-speed railways (HSR), while simultaneously moving up the global value chains, evidenced by the rising domestic value-added ratio (DVAR) in exports. To analyze the impacts of the HSR on China’s DVAR, this paper develops a new methodology to estimate firm-level DVAR using only customs transaction data, without relying on the industry input-output tables or matching firm-level industrial census data. This paper also proposes a novel way to capture firm-level input-output linkages by matching the custom product codes of importers and exporters. The results confirm that the HSR increases the DVAR through firm linkages by connecting downstream exporters with upstream domestic suppliers. A two-sector model shows that, by improving the probability of exporters connecting with low-communication cost domestic suppliers, the HSR decreases domestic material prices and increases the variety of accessible domestic materials, hence pushing up DVAR. |
| Date: | 2024–11–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10985 |
| By: | Enrique Aldaz-Carroll; Euijin Jung; Maryla Maliszewska; Iryna Sikora |
| Abstract: | The three major players in the global economy, the United States, the European Union, and China, have been designing climate mitigation policies that will help reduce their carbon emissions but will also likely reshape developing countries’ trade, prices, and access to technology. This paper examines developing countries’ exposure to such changes. Overall, the policies are expected to curtail demand for fossil fuels, energy-intensive manufacturing, and agricultural exports linked to environmental degradation. They are also expected to open export opportunities in critical minerals, electric vehicles and their components, and renewable energy technologies and components. The exposure of affected export sectors and the overall economy to these changes will vary across countries based on the orientation of their export sectors to the markets in the European Union, the United States, and Chinese as well as the weight of affected exports in their economies. The climate policies will also likely reduce oil prices and raise critical mineral prices, help reduce the cost of green technologies, and increase green foreign investment. The paper draws recommendations for developing countries, the European Union, the United States, and China, as well as the international community, on how best to help developing countries lessen the potential negative competitiveness effects of these climate policies and make the most of the opportunities for a faster green transition and economic development. |
| Date: | 2024–11–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10988 |
| By: | Hiau Looi Kee; Enze Xie |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the factors affecting governments’ mixed use of tariffs and non-tariff measures (NTMs) as trade and industrial policies. Results based on detailed bilateral-product-level ad valorem equivalent estimates for a wide range of countries show that restrictive NTMs coexist with lower tariffs, particularly for high-income importing countries, low-income exporting countries, country pairs with deep trade agreements, and products with consumption externalities. A terms-of-trade model with externalities rationalizes the results. The model is further used to shed light on the recent Sino-EU battery electric vehicle (BEV) disputes, whereby the EU imposed NTMs on top of the tariffs on China’s BEVs. |
| Date: | 2024–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10855 |
| By: | Kokas, Deeksha; Gladys Lopez-Acevedo; Vu, Ha |
| Abstract: | Are changes in the labor market in response to changes in exports contained specifically within exporting industries, or do they disperse throughout the economy through supply chain linkages? This paper studies the case of Viet Nam, an example of a successful export-led growth economy, to examine this question. Combining UN COMTRADE data, input-output tables from the Global Trade Analysis Project, and 2010 to 2019 annual labor force survey data for Viet Nam, the study constructed a measure of each worker’s total exposure to export shocks. The measure accounts for changes due to both direct export exposure (increase in exports in the worker’s own industry) and indirect exposure (from increased exports in other industries that use inputs from the worker’s industry). Estimates of the repercussions from increasing exports on labor market outcomes show that both direct and indirect exposure significantly increase workers’ wages and employment, while reducing inactivity and inequality. Wage premiums for attending college decrease, and the gender wage gap narrows. Wages increase more for the lowest-income workers and employment gains accrue more to unskilled workers, while employment decreases for more skilled workers. |
| Date: | 2024–08–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10868 |
| By: | Mitsuyo Ando; Kazunobu Hayakawa; Fukunari Kimura |
| Abstract: | This study examines recent changes in international production networks facing various risks. We primarily investigate how import sources of the European Union (EU) countries in machinery industries have changed from the pre-pandemic to the post-pandemic period using monthly and annual international trade data at the finely disaggregated level, with a particular focus on East Asia. We confirm that Factory Asia experienced a much smaller negative impact and had a more rapid recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic compared with Factory America and Factory Europe, showing its robust and resilient nature. At least until 2023, the inter-regional linkages of East Asia as a supplier did not weaken. Moreover, we reveal that the two directions of links between East Asia and the EU are asymmetric. East Asian countries are important suppliers for the EU, particularly in general and electrical machinery industries, and the relative importance of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China, in particular, as EU import sources strengthened further in the post-pandemic period. We also demonstrate that EU countries increased imports from longer-distance countries, indicating no quantitative evidence of intensifying near-shoring in machinery industries in the post-COVID-19 era. Furthermore, we demonstrate that EU countries have prioritised friend-shoring from an economic perspective but not necessarily from a political perspective when purchasing machinery products in the post-pandemic period. |
| Keywords: | International production networks, machinery trade, East Asia, EU, near-shoring, friend-shoring, post-COVID-19 |
| JEL: | F14 F15 F53 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:260 |
| By: | Dr. Ghamz E Ali Siyal; Dr. Adeel Ahmed (Assistant Professor, School of Economics and Social Sciences (SESS), Institute of Business Administration (IBA), Karachi.; Lecturer, Economics and Finance, RMIT, Vietnam.) |
| Abstract: | Globally, production and waste generation have been increasing for several decades. The flow of recyclable waste from developed to developing countries has also risen. Notably, China was the primary importer of recyclable waste for recycling and reuse. However, to reduce the burden of recycling and solid waste management, China has begun restricting the import of low-quality waste. This study analyzes the impact of trade restriction policy, specifically the National Sword Policy (NSP), on waste exports, with a focus on plastic waste scrap . This waste is exported to China from the rest of the world. The analysis relies on two major data sources: the Center for Prospective Studies and International Information (CEPII) database and GDP per capita (GDPPC) from the World Development Indicators (WDI). Using the Gravity model, this study examines trade patterns over a 24-year period from 1995 to 2018, deliberately excluding the pandemic years to avoid bias in the results. The findings indicate that the NSP reduced plastic waste scrap exports to China by 177% while increasing the flow of low-quality plastic waste scrap to the rest of the world by 135%. Considerably, countries with poor environmental regulations received more (339%) plastic, compared to the top 20 importers, which saw an increase of 285%. These findings highlight the need for further analysis of trade patterns, particularly through a multi-product approach and an intensive and extensive margin analysis of all types of plastic waste scrap. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aho:ibaess:wpsil7 |
| By: | Zolezzi, Sandro |
| Abstract: | This Perspective explores how impact evaluation on IPA's activities and projects can substantially improve the effectiveness and the competitive position of attracting FDI to the host country. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:colfdi:311081 |
| By: | Bickenbach, Frank; Bode, Eckhardt; Dohse, Dirk; Görg, Holger; Heidland, Tobias; Hinz, Julian; Langhammer, Rolf J.; Liu, Wan-hsin; Rickels, Wilfried; Schularick, Moritz |
| Abstract: | Europe: • Germany must once again see itself as an important part of and a leading nation within the EU. The new German government should consistently think and act in a European way on foreign trade issues. • Only a strong EU single market can compete on equal terms with the USA and China. Together, the EU has strong market power that can be used to counteract trade-restricting measures and enable fair international competition. • The markets for digital products, financial services and energy are still highly fragmented in Europe. The single market must therefore finally be completed. Furthermore, a strong European market for venture capital, a capital market and banking union is needed. China: • In the negotiations on countervailing duties for electric cars produced in China, the EU should not engage in sham solutions such as minimum prices or import quotas but should insist on the reduction of unfair subsidies and better protection of European companies against discrimination in the Chinese market. The German government should support the Commission in this. • Together with the other EU member states and the Commission, the new German government should quickly develop an appropriate regulatory framework to effectively counter threats to national security that may arise from the use of Chinese products in safety-related areas and critical infrastructures in the EU. USA: • Trump's announced import tariffs on European goods would affect the German automotive industry and other export-oriented sectors. With additional tariffs of 10%, German exports to the US would fall by up to 10% in the medium term. • The EU's united stance on targeted countermeasures and increased investment in defense in Europe should be part of the strategic response to Trump's unpredictable trade policy. At the same time, Europe should champion openness and liberalization in its relations with the rest of the world. Trade Agreements: • The EU Commission's plans to conclude trade agreements with regional communities beyond Mercosur should be supported by the German government. The EU's sustainability standards should be adapted to the level of development of the partners to trade agreements. Africa: • Germany must develop a strategic Africa policy that aims at long-term common interests. Germany should act as a long-term and reliable partner to Africa, taking a leading role within the EU and developing resource partnerships. Migration policy should not aim at isolation but be orientated towards opportunity. Security of raw materials: • The German government should support the EU's plans for intensive monitoring of the supply situation for strategically important raw materials, intermediate and finished products, and define criteria for security of supply in selected areas, such as antibiotics. In addition, it should promote the research for and development of economically superior alternative products European climate policy: • The EU emissions trading system for the transport and building sector should be implemented swiftly and established as a central climate instrument in the long term by adjusting the initial allocation of allowances. CO2 removal should be supported and corresponding certificates stored for later crediting periods. • The introduction of the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) should be maintained, but other trade barriers should be removed at the same time. Developing countries should be supported in collecting emissions data. |
| Abstract: | Europa: • Deutschland muss sich wieder als wichtiger Teil und als eine der Führungsnationen der EU verstehen. Die neue Bundesregierung sollte in außenwirtschaftlichen Fragen konsequent europäisch denken und handeln. • Nur ein starker EU-Binnenmarkt schafft Augenhöhe mit den USA und China. Gemeinsam hat die EU eine starke Marktmacht, die eingesetzt werden kann, um handelsbeschränkenden Maßnahmen entgegenzuwirken und einen fairen internationalen Wettbewerb zu ermöglichen. • Die Märkte für digitale Produkte, Finanzdienstleistungen und Energie sind in Europa nach wie vor stark fragmentiert. Der Binnenmarkt muss daher endlich vollendet werden. Es bedarf eines starken europäischen Marktes für Risikokapital sowie einer Kapitalmarkt- und Bankenunion. China: • In den Verhandlungen über Ausgleichszölle für in China produzierte Elektroautos sollte sich die EU nicht auf Scheinlösungen wie Mindestpreise oder Importquoten einlassen, sondern auf dem Abbau unfairer Subventionen und einem besseren Schutz europäischer Unternehmen vor Diskriminierung auf dem chinesischen Markt bestehen. Die Bundesregierung sollte der Kommission dabei den Rücken stärken. • Gemeinsam mit den anderen EU-Mitgliedstaaten und der Kommission sollte die neue Bundesregierung rasch ein geeignetes regulatorisches Regelwerk erarbeiten, um Gefahren für die nationale Sicherheit, die sich aus dem Einsatz chinesischer Produkte in sicherheitsrelevanten Bereichen und kritischen Infrastrukturen der EU ergeben können, effektiv zu begegnen. USA: • Die angekündigten Importzölle auf europäische Waren würden die deutsche Automobilindustrie und andere exportorientierte Sektoren treffen. Bei zusätzlichen Zöllen von 10% würden die deutschen Exporte in die USA mittelfristig um bis zu 10% fallen. • Geschlossenes Auftreten der EU bei gezielten Gegenmaßnahmen und höhere Investitionen in Verteidigung in Europa sollten Teil der strategischen Antwort auf die unberechenbare Handelspolitik von Trump sein. Sein Streben nach schnellen Deals kann aber auch Chancen bieten. Europa sollte gleichzeitig zum Champion von Offenheit und Liberalisierung gegenüber dem Rest der Welt werden. Handelsabkommen • Pläne der EU-Kommission, mit regionalen Gemeinschaften über Mercosur hinaus Handelsabkommen zu schließen, sollten von der Bundesregierung unterstützt werden. Nachhaltigkeitsstandards der EU sollten an den Entwicklungsstand der Partner von Handelsabkommen angepasst werden. Afrika: • Deutschland muss eine strategische Afrika-Politik entwickeln, die auf langfristige gemeinsame Interessen zielt. Deutschland sollte gegenüber Afrika als langfristiger und verlässlicher Partner auftreten und darin eine Führungsrolle innerhalb der EU übernehmen und Ressourcenpartnerschaften entwickeln. Die Migrationspolitik sollte nicht von Abschottung, sondern von Chancenorientierung geprägt sein. Rohstoffsicherheit: • Die Bundesregierung sollte das von der EU geplante intensive Monitoring der Versorgungslage mit strategisch wichtigen Rohstoffen, Zwischen- und Fertigprodukten unterstützen und in auch in anderen Bereichen wie z.B. bei Antibiotika Kriterien für Versorgungssicherheit definieren. Die Bundesregierung sollte zudem die Erforschung und Entwicklung wirtschaftlich überlegener alternativer Produkte gezielt fördern. Europäische Klimapolitik: • Das EU-Emissionshandelssystem für den Verkehrs- und Gebäudesektor sollte zügig umgesetzt und langfristig als zentrales Klimainstrument mit Anpassung der Zertifikateallokation etabliert werden. Die CO2-Entnahme sollte unterstützt und die entsprechenden Zertifikate für spätere Anrechnungszeiträume gespeichert werden. • An der Einführung des CO2-Grenzausgleichs (CBAM) sollte festgehalten werden, aber gleichzeitig andere Handelshemmnisse abgebaut werden. Entwicklungsländer sollten bei der Erfassung von Emissionsdaten unterstützt werden. |
| Keywords: | foreign trade, German federal election, China, USA, Africa, trade agreement, climate policy, Außenwirtschaft, Bundestagswahl, China, USA, Afrika, Handelsabkommen, Klimapolitik |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:311213 |
| By: | Ural Marchand, Beyza (University of Alberta, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of imports from developed countries on industry-specific employment in India between 1983 and 2010. The identification strategy relies on comparing differential changes in import exposure across regions to the differential changes in employment within industries. The variation in the changes in imports to other developing countries is used to identify the component of the changes in imports driven by world demand. The results suggest that the increase in import exposure during the post-liberalization period reduced agricultural employment but increased employment in manufacturing, business, and social services. No significant impacts were found in the pre-liberalization period. |
| Keywords: | Import Competition; Trade; Employment |
| JEL: | F16 J21 J23 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–02–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:albaec:2025_002 |
| By: | Leal, Alan (Departamento de Economia, Universidade de São Paulo); Martins, Michelle Marcia Viana (Universidade Federal of Viçosa) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to present a new algorithm to estimate Brazilian municipalities exports at the HS6 level. Currently, the information available to academics and policymakers are available at a HS4 level and more importantly it does not inform the municipalities producing and directing this producing to foreign markets, it only addresses the bureaucracy of the export activity. Beyond this, we also review, through LLama, the literature that mentions the words "municipal exports", finding that no particular work mentions this distinction. The method proposed in this paper can help many stakeholders to analyze and make more informed decisions regarding themes of international trade. Hence, it possesses academic and policy relevance within the type of data that is available in Brazil. |
| Keywords: | Exports data; Brazil; Spatial Methods |
| JEL: | F10 |
| Date: | 2025–02–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nereus:2025_003 |
| By: | Samuel Rosenow; Alvaro Raul Espitia Rueda; Ana Margarida Fernandes |
| Abstract: | Addressing climate change requires the deployment of green technologies. Using novel transaction-level import data from firms in 35 emerging markets in a firm-level structural gravity model, this paper examines the trade policy determinants of firms' imports of products associated with green value chains of solar photovoltaic, wind power, and electric vehicles. The panel estimates indicate that firms' import response to tariffs is particularly adverse for products associated with green value chains relative to average imports, driven by the solar value chain and downstream segments across all green value chains. This effect is pervasive for both the values and quantities imported by firms as well as for the probability of firms importing these products. Moreover, the effect is even more negative for undiversified firms. In contrast, import regulations have a smaller and more varied impact on firms' imports of products associated with green value chains. The findings suggest that governments in emerging markets should avoid adopting protectionist policies that are increasingly used in high-income countries, as their local firms rely on imports for the short-term diffusion of green technologies. |
| Date: | 2024–11–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10977 |
| By: | Rajasekhar Reddy Talla (Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)) |
| Abstract: | This research examines how blockchain technology improves international commerce cybersecurity and efficiency. We want to see how blockchain enhances transparency, reduces costs, and streamlines global trading networks by addressing security risks and inefficiencies. Secondary data-based literature reviews, case studies, and industry reports are used to assess blockchain's trade potential. The research found that blockchain improves cybersecurity by decentralizing data storage, assuring immutability, and preventing fraud and data breaches. Automation via smart contracts, trade paperwork simplification, and supply chain visibility boost efficiency. However, scalability, interoperability, and regulatory issues persist. The report underlines that blockchain may lower costs by removing intermediaries and increasing direct peer-to-peer interactions. Standards, cross-border legislation, and incentives for blockchain implementation, especially for SMEs, have policy implications. It also emphasizes stakeholder engagement and capacity-building to overcome technical and financial hurdles. The research finds that blockchain may transform international commerce by making it safer, more efficient, and transparent, but it needs concerted governmental initiatives to overcome present constraints. |
| Keywords: | Blockchain Technology, Cybersecurity, International Trade, Supply Chain Transparency, Smart Contracts, Trade Documentation, Digital Transformation |
| Date: | 2023–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04890061 |
| By: | Hanqin Chen; Ye Lu; Huaqin Huang |
| Abstract: | Trade policy uncertainty has become a significant feature of today's global economy. While its impact on free trade is evident, its microeconomic effects remain open to debate. This study explores the influence of trade policy uncertainty on corporate ESG performance and its underlying mechanisms, using data from A-share listed companies in China from 2010 to 2020. The findings reveal that increased trade policy uncertainty significantly and robustly enhances corporate ESG performance. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that high-tech enterprises are better equipped to improve their ESG performance in response to trade policy uncertainty. Furthermore, strengthening internal controls and appointing CEOs with environmental backgrounds also help firms seize the opportunities arising from trade policy uncertainty. In terms of mechanisms, trade policy uncertainty intensifies industry competition, compelling firms to enhance their ESG performance to gain market share. Additionally, it stimulates green technological innovation, further optimizing ESG outcomes. Therefore, efforts should focus on improving the ESG standards system, establishing ESG incentive policies, increasing the transparency and predictability of trade policies, and promoting corporate green development to advance national sustainable development goals. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2502.01640 |
| By: | Barreto Cifuentes, Carlos Sebastian; Beshkardana, Katayoon; Majed M. El-Bayya; Rotunno, Lorenzo |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how procurement rules affect international trade, leveraging a novel dataset that characterizes national laws across 141 countries. Text analysis of national laws on government procurement identifies prevalent protectionist measures such as preferential treatment for domestic bidders and mandatory domestic sourcing. A descriptive analysis reveals that 124 countries incorporate preferential treatment provisions, highlighting the widespread nature of protectionism. The prevalence of procurement policies characterized as protectionist negatively correlates with trade openness across countries, in both public and private markets. This protectionist effect is confirmed in gravity regressions. Countries with more protectionist procurement laws are found to trade more domestically than from abroad in procurement markets. Industry-level estimates suggest that these effects are stronger for goods than for services. |
| Date: | 2024–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10937 |
| By: | Mar Delgado-Téllez (EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK); Javier Quintana (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Daniel Santabárbara (BANCO DE ESPAÑA) |
| Abstract: | An increase of €100 per tonne in the EU carbon price reduces the carbon footprint but lowers GDP due to higher energy costs and carbon leakage. Using a dynamic multi-sector, multi-country model augmented with an energy block that includes endogenous renewable energy investment, we analyze the macroeconomic and emissions effects of a carbon price. Investment in renewable energy mitigates electricity price increases in the medium term, leading to a smaller GDP loss (up to -0.4%) and a larger emissions reduction (24%) in the EU. Neglecting renewable energy investment overestimates the negative economic impact. We also find that a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) reduces carbon leakage but slightly hurts GDP and inflation as the competitive gain is offset by the higher costs of imported intermediate inputs. |
| Keywords: | carbon pricing, renewable energy investment, carbon border adjustment, production networks |
| JEL: | C6 H2 Q5 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2506 |
| By: | Subhayu Bandyopadhyay; Hoang Le |
| Abstract: | The number of people attempting to enter the U.S. without authorization rose sharply in recent years, but the latest data show a downward trend. |
| Keywords: | unauthorized immigration |
| Date: | 2025–02–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:99610 |
| By: | Leng, Alyssa Amanda; Edwards, Ryan Barclay (Australian National University); Wood, Terence |
| Abstract: | Exposure to quantitative information about immigrants or narratives around the costs and benefits of immigration can alter people’s immigration policy preferences. Using a survey experiment with a representative sample of over 5, 000 respondents in Australia, we find substantial and contradictory misperceptions across the number, origins and labour market attributes of immigrants. Most respondents prefer less immigration overall, but favour increased high-skilled immigration. Support for increased immigration rises by 4.5—7 percentage points when respondents are shown narratives on how immigrants can help improve housing affordability. Conversely, highlighting the perceived negative impacts of immigration on housing affordability reduces support for increasing or maintaining current immigration levels. Providing quantitative information on immigrants’ characteristics generates smaller increases in support for more immigration than narratives. For immigration from Pacific Island countries, exposure to quantitative information increases support for relaxing visa requirements but there is no evidence that narratives have any effect. |
| Date: | 2025–02–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:c63uq_v1 |
| By: | Arpita Mukherjee (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Ketaki Gaikwad; Aahana Srishti |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to (a) examine the growth of e-commerce in the Asia-Pacific region, (b) identify the growth drivers and the contribution of the sector to MSMEs, women entrepreneurs, and allied sectors like express delivery services, (c) examine the policy landscape and how it is evolving in APAC countries with a focus on learning from each other’s best practices (d) identify the policy and other challenges such as those related to cross-border data sharing, consumer privacy, cross-border payments, gaps in paperless trade, etc., that may impact the current and/or future growth of the e-commerce sector and its users and (e) make recommendations to facilitate cross border e-commerce trade and help users of e-commerce platforms like MSMEs and women entrepreneurs enhance their global reach. |
| Keywords: | Asia-Pacific, E-commerce, Trade, Policy, MSMEs, icrier |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:wpaper:425 |
| By: | Góes, Carlos; Segnana, Juan; Robertson, Raymond; Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys C. |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the dynamic effects of export exposure on local labor markets in Indonesia, that is, how an increase in exports affects a range of labor market indicators over time. The paper develops an empirical strategy to instrument exposure to foreign demand shocks and validates it by showing that labor market responses are consistent with what a quantitative spatial model would predict after demand shocks. The results show that employment, labor force, real wages, and real wage bills increase more in districts that are more exposed to foreign demand shocks—that is, where exports increase more—relative to the least exposed regions. Extending the analysis over multiple response horizons shows that these shocks persist six years after the foreign demand shock. Lastly, employment responses are stronger among skilled workers relative to unskilled workers and in the formal sector relative to the informal sector. |
| Date: | 2024–06–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10829 |
| By: | Andres Fortunato (Center for International Development at Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | This is one of four Growth Lab reports that aim to identify promising growth opportunities for Hermosillo. The focus of this report is nearshoring. Nearshoring is not a new phenomenon in Mexico, but recent changes in U.S. policy aimed to incentivize nearshoring of critical industries. This report first explores current realities of nearshoring and friendshoring in recent years, based on global trade and the distance which U.S. imports are traveling, and Mexico’s dynamics in global trade and investment in comparison to other countries. The report then evaluates the economic growth opportunities that nearshoring could incentivize in Hermosillo. We analyze the nearshoring opportunity set for Hermosillo across products and industries and if they are based on the city’s productive capabilities. This report confirms that nearshoring and friendshoring have been taking place in global trade and investment in response to U.S. policy between 2017 and 2023. Mexico has made gains in its exports to the U.S. market in recent years as exports from China have lost ground, but it is not the only country doing so. A few countries like Vietnam benefited even more, despite being geographically far from the U.S. market. Mexico is seeing growth in products it has traditionally exported, but it is not seeing much diversification into products that the U.S. has deemed critical. Nor is Mexico seeing promising investment trends that would signal an acceleration of growth in these opportunities. Given Hermosillo’s position as a large city that is near the U.S. market, and to a growing market in Arizona in particular, the process of nearshoring represents a potentially transformational chance to jumpstart growth in attractive industries to better position the local economy for the future. This report provides analysis to begin to identify the most promising nearshoring opportunities for Hermosillo, but local action is needed to build on these initial observations. We identify products and industries that are attractive opportunities for nearshoring in Hermosillo and we evaluate which industries are most consistent with Hermosillo’s existing industry structure and underlying productive capabilities. Promising opportunities stand out in industries related to medical equipment, electronics, machinery, and plastics and the latter sections of this report explore these opportunities in some detail, both quantitatively and more qualitatively. Local strategies to capitalize on these opportunities will vary in design and local actors should weigh the criteria provided and other considerations when deciding which industries are the highest priority for targeted investment promotion and other action steps. One exception, however, is in the value chain for semiconductors, where the emerging opportunity to supply and complement the value chain that is forming in Arizona is too large to pass up. Semiconductors represent an essential area that policymakers and the business community in Hermosillo should embrace, along with a set of additional promising nearshoring opportunities. |
| Keywords: | Hermosillo, Nearshoring |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:240 |
| By: | Yu Cao; Francesca de Nicola; Aaditya Mattoo; Jonathan David Timmis |
| Abstract: | Recent U.S.-China tensions have raised the specter of technological decoupling. This paper examines the impact of U.S. export restrictions and technology licensing on Chinese firms’ innovation. It finds that U.S. sanctions reduce the quantity and quality of patent outputs of targeted Chinese firms, primarily due to decreased collaboration with U.S. inventors. However, firms with higher initial patent stock or in sectors with a smaller technological distance to the U.S. are less affected. Sanctions in specific technology fields lead to a decline in the patent output of both Chinese firms with U.S. collaborators and U.S. firms with Chinese collaborators. |
| Date: | 2024–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10950 |
| By: | Segnana, Juan; Gladys Lopez-Acevedo; Robertson, Raymond; Roche Rodriguez, Jaime Alfonso |
| Abstract: | The Syrian Civil War in 2011 led to a substantial influx of refugees into Jordan, with more than 660, 000 Syrians arriving by 2015. More than half of these refugees were of working age. This study shows that Syrian refugees have less education than their Jordanian counterparts, and policies attempted to help them to assimilate into manufacturing. The study tests two hypotheses related to refugee assimilation. The first hypothesis examines the 2016 Jordan Compact with the European Union, which aimed to integrate Syrian refugees and improve Jordan’s export profile with simplified rules of origin for certain industries. If the Jordan Compact was effective, a relative increase in exports to the European Union, compared to other regions, would be expected. The second hypothesis suggests that the successful integration of Syrian workers into the manufacturing sector contributed to a boost in manufacturing exports to all destinations relative to other exports. The study conducts a gravity difference-in-differences analysis to evaluate these two hypotheses. The findings show little, if any, evidence supporting the first hypothesis but strong support for the second. These findings suggest that although the simplified rules of origin had limited impact on exports to the European Union, the Jordanian government effectively integrated Syrian workers into the manufacturing sector. Labor force surveys indicate that a skill mismatch impeded the integration of Syrian workers into the industries targeted by the Jordan Compact, but refugees were successfully assimilated into the manufacturing industry. |
| Date: | 2024–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10903 |
| By: | Benjamin Cornejo Costas; Nicola Cortinovis; Andrea Morrison; |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between migrant inventors, informal institutions and the development of green technologies in European regions. We argue that migrant inventors act as an unlocking mechanism that transfers external knowledge to host regions, and that informal institutions (i.e. social capital, migrant acceptance) mediate this effect. The work is based on an original dataset of migrant inventors covering 271 NUTS2 regions in the 27 EU countries, the UK, Switzerland, and Norway. The analysis shows that migrant inventors help their host regions to diversify into green technologies. The regions with the highest levels of both measures of social capital show a higher propensity of migrant inventors to act knowledge brokers. Conversely, regions with lower levels of migrant acceptance and social capital do not seem to contribute to this effect. |
| Keywords: | lock-in, international migration, green innovation, social capital, acceptance, regional diversification, EU regions |
| JEL: | F22 J61 O30 R12 Q55 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2503 |
| By: | Tristan Reed |
| Abstract: | Industrial policy prioritizes growth in specific sectors. Yet there is little agreement about how to target sectors in practice, and many argue that governments cannot pick winners. This essay observes that governments can and do identify tradable sectors where public inputs accelerate growth and generate economic benefits. These strategic sectors are: (i) those that are relatively more productive, and (ii) those that are relatively less productive but require technology like the country’s existing technology and have rapidly growing markets and limited international competition. Since developing countries are productive in fewer sectors and have less technology, targeting can be more valuable for them. Export promotion agencies are institutions that have demonstrated effectiveness in coordinating public inputs to grow these sectors. Compared to protectionism, this alternative approach to ‘industrial policy’ is cheaper, less susceptible to capture by unproductive firms, and permissible under the rules of international trade agreements. Many countries’ development strategies adopt this approach. |
| Date: | 2024–09–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10902 |
| By: | Paulo Bastos; Katherine Stapleton; Daria Taglioni; Wei, Hannah Yi |
| Abstract: | This study examines the role of multinational firms and global value chain linkages in the cross-country diffusion of emerging technologies. The analysis combines detailed information on the near-universe of online job postings in 17 countries with data on multinational networks and firm-to-firm linkages from 2014 to 2022. Online job postings are utilized to investigate how jobs related to emerging technologies spread through firm networks. The findings show that emerging technology jobs are highly concentrated within multinational firms and their supply chains. Approximately one third of all emerging technology job postings during this period come from Fortune 500 firms, their affiliates, buyers, suppliers, or innovation partners. Although the locations where these technologies originate exhibit a higher prevalence of technology job openings, this advantage diminishes over time as diffusion accelerates in wealthier and geographically closer countries and regions. The study highlights the significant role of firm-to-firm linkages in technology diffusion, with some linkages proving more influential than others. Firms that were previously buyers or innovation partners of establishments in technology-originating locations experienced faster growth in jobs related to these technologies. Moreover, relationships outside corporate boundaries play a particularly critical role, and these connections are influential beyond the factor of geographical distance. |
| Date: | 2024–09–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10905 |
| By: | Guillermo Arcay (Harvard's Growth Lab); Tim O'Brien (Center for International Development at Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | Technological advances have increased the general tradability of services, leading international trade in services to outpace trade in goods, especially after the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Services once considered less tradable due to the necessity of physical proximity between consumer and provider are now increasingly digitized and delivered remotely. Cross-border services now represent 79% of all internationally traded services, and digitally deliverable activities like engineering, accounting, database and other information services are experiencing yearly U.S. imports growth rates over 15%. This report analyzes how Mexico has been capitalizing on some of these trends over the past five years using the most granular data available. Then, we analyze opportunities from the perspective of Hermosillo. Hermosillo is poised to benefit from this global expansion due to its comparative advantages and existing productive capabilities in potentially tradeable services. We estimate the revealed comparative advantage of Hermosillo in each tradeable service category and find that the city is better positioned than similarly rich and complex cities in Mexico to take advantage of several of these opportunities. This is because Hermosillo is currently intensive in these opportunities, and also because Hermosillo has other industries that are similar to the opportunities in terms of their occupational structure (which could potentially supply additional labor in case tradeable service industries were to expand rapidly). Moreover, Hermosillo’s wage differentials compared to the U.S. are significant for most industries and occupations, including all tradable service industries and teleworkable occupations. This provides a cost advantage for foreign firms seeking to outsource part of their operations. Hermosillo also boasts a well-educated workforce with high levels of schooling and a strong emphasis on STEM fields, positioning it well to meet a potential expansion in educated labor demand. Some tradable services represent bigger opportunities for Hermosillo, but the city will need to develop new capabilities in cross-border service provision in order to take advantage of them. In particular, engineering services, database and other information services, business and management consulting, research and development, education, and accounting services require attention and further research to inform effective strategies. To realize these opportunities, local firms may need to overcome sector-specific challenges related to internationalization. Policymakers can play a pivotal role by fostering strategic partnerships, attracting multinational service providers to bring in knowhow, and creating supportive enabling environments for teleworking and digital service provision. |
| Keywords: | Hermosillo, Trade |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:242 |
| By: | Arvis, Jean Francois; Rastogi, Cordula; Rodrigue, Jean Paul; Ulybina, Daria |
| Abstract: | Global supply chains recently faced widespread disruptions. The COVID-19 pandemic caused major disruptions in 2021 and 2022, while in late 2023, geopolitical incidents in the Red Sea and water shortages in the Panama Canal disrupted global shipping routes. Regardless of the cause, delays, or rerouting mean that disruption diffuses at a global scale. To quantify and assess the magnitude of disruptions globally or locally, in 2021, the World Bank developed a proposed metric, the Global Supply Chain Stress Index. The index derives from Automatic Identification System tracking data. It calculates the equivalent stalled ship capacity measured in twenty-foot equivalent units), providing data at the port, country, regional, and global levels. This granular information can inform targeted interventions and contingency planning, improving the resilience of maritime infrastructure and networks. The index explains the observed surges in shipping rates during disruptions, assuming shippers’ willingness to pay for scarcer shipping slots. An increase of 1 million twenty-foot equivalent units in global stress pushes the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index up by US$2, 300 per twenty-foot equivalent unit. |
| Date: | 2024–07–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10839 |
| By: | Reinert, Kenneth A. |
| Abstract: | Traditional economic nationalism, techno-nationalism and national security concerns have converged into a modern industrial policy, which is being pursued by multiple actors, including the US, China, India, Republic of Korea, and the EU. Driven by new subsidy wars, these policies pose a tremendous challenge for global economic relations. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:colfdi:311082 |
| By: | Koetter, Michael; Nguyen, Huyen; Uzonwanne, Sochima |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how firms' exposure to supply chain disruptions (SCD) affects firm outcomes in the European Union (EU). Exploiting heterogeneous responses to workplace closures imposed by sourcing countries during the pandemic as a shock to SCD, we provide empirical evidence that firms in industries relying more heavily on foreign inputs experience a significant decline in sales compared to other firms. We document that external finance, particularly bank financing, plays a critical role in mitigating the effects of SCD. Furthermore, we highlight the unique importance of bank loans for small and solvent firms. Our findings also indicate that highly diversified firms and those sourcing inputs from less distant partners are less vulnerable to SCD. |
| Keywords: | bank debt, external finance, firm sales, supply chains, supply chain disruptions |
| JEL: | D22 F14 G21 L14 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:311193 |
| By: | Lisa Martin; Mr. Christopher S Adam; Douglas Gollin |
| Abstract: | We develop a spatial dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open agricultural economy to study the impact of global food, fuel and fertilizer price shocks on consumption patterns of heterogeneous households located in different regions, under alternative fiscal responses, including direct price subsidies and household transfers. We show strong spatial heterogeneity in response to shocks, with associated implications for welfare. In particular, while urban households’ consumption baskets are more exposed to the direct effects of global food price shocks, remote rural households’ production and consumption are more exposed to supply-side dislocations associated with shocks to fuel and fertilizer prices. |
| Keywords: | Spatial General Equilibrium; Import Price Shocks; Household Heterogeneity; Food Security; Fiscal Policy |
| Date: | 2025–02–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/039 |
| By: | Merli, M. Giovanna |
| Abstract: | We describe the heterogeneity of the Chinese immigrant population in France and investigate how immigrants’ diverse patterns of social integration predict perceptions of racism, using survey data and in-depth interviews collected during the COVID-19 outbreak, a period during which anti-Chinese and anti-Asian xenophobia and racism were activated. Our unique data, collected for the Chinese Immigrants in the Paris Region (ChIPRe) Study, enable a classification of Chinese immigrants at the intersection of their migration histories, socio-demographic profiles, broad social integration indicators, and attributes of their social ties that characterize distinct patterns of social interaction with co-ethnics and with the wider French society. Our classification highlights three distinct groups: an established ethnic enclave of Wenzhou Chinese, an immigrant underclass whose members arrived in France after the dismantling of China’s centrally planned economy, and successive cohorts of international students, many of whom have gained professional employment in France or intend to stay in France after graduation from institutions of higher education. These distinct immigrant profiles predict different frequencies of subjective experiences of racism that are not attributable to the conventional predictors of racism perceptions alone and add nuance to the discrepancy between conventional social integration indicators and discrimination and racism found among the main immigrant groups and their children in many European countries. |
| Date: | 2024–09–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:24zqd_v1 |
| By: | Jonas Feld (IAAEU; University of Trier); Joanna Tyrowicz (Group for Research in Applied Economics (GRAPE); University of Warsaw; Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)) |
| Abstract: | We provide novel evidence on the inequality of returns to immigrant skills in hosting economies. Although migrant wage gaps are well established in the literature, less is known about the origins of their heterogeneity. We propose a potential rationale for this gap related to the linguistic proximity between the destination and origin countries. We exploit individual-level data from nine diverse destination countries, with migrants from a highly heterogeneous group of origin countries, for both recent and long-term migrants. We find that lower linguistic proximity between origin and destination is associated with a higher average wage penalty for highly skilled migrants and a substantially lower position in the wage distribution. |
| Keywords: | migration, linguistic proximity, returns to education |
| JEL: | F22 I23 I26 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fme:wpaper:102 |
| By: | Asad, Asad L. (Stanford University); Gonzalez-Rodriguez, Sofia; Ro, E Ju; Medina, Daniel Tovar; Mousa, Nora |
| Abstract: | This report describes how immigration advocates—people engaging in political or legal campaigns for, and/or offering direct services and support to, immigrants—understand their efforts to reduce or prevent the harms of the U.S. immigration system on immigrants and their families. We draw on interviews with 67 immigration advocates representing 76 immigrant-serving nonprofits across the United States between November 2021 and February 2023. The interviews affirm advocates and their organizations’ important frontline roles in reducing systemic harm by addressing immigrants’ immediate material, social, and/or legal needs. Yet, when it comes to preventing harm by reforming or transforming the immigration system, many advocates believe their efforts do little but maintain the system’s structure. Advocates attribute this dynamic to several sources, including the ever-evolving harms of the current system; the demands of the public and private funders their organizations rely on; intraorganizational challenges common to immigrant-serving organizations; and the perceived immovability of the national, state, and local political contexts they work in. We conclude with several immediate and long-range suggestions for immigration advocates to consider as they continue their work. |
| Date: | 2024–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:u78ks_v1 |
| By: | Stephen Broadberry; Tamás Vonyó |
| Abstract: | A pre-war policy of free trade in Britain and protection in Germany meant that Britain entered the war producing 35 per cent of its food needs while Germany produced 80 per cent. And yet Britain managed to feed itself adequately while Germany faced food shortages. Britain successfully adopted a range of counter-measures, exhibiting a capacity for substitution, allowing the economy to be flexible enough to survive the German blockade. The blockade accounted for at most around a quarter of the decline in German food consumption, which was largely the result of a collapse in domestic production caused by excessive mobilisation. German counter-measures were sometimes successful, but at other times indicate a less flexible economy with a limited capacity for substitution. The British government quickly reversed wartime policies to boost agricultural production and entered World War 2 equally vulnerable to submarine blockade, while Germany pursued autarkic policies to avoid dependence on seaborne imports. |
| Date: | 2025–02–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_217 |
| By: | Picciotto, Sol |
| Abstract: | Protracted debates and negotiations have led to a new approach to taxation of multinationals: apportionment of their global profits based on their real presence in each country. A concerted initiative by willing states could implement this approach using standards now agreed, facilitated through the UN Framework Convention now under negotiation. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:colfdi:311080 |
| By: | Brancati, Emanuele; Di Maio, Michele; Roberta V. Gatti; Asif M Islam |
| Abstract: | This study provides a global analysis of the effect of conflict exposure on firms’ performance, combining geolocalized longitudinal firm-level data and information on political violence events from 91 countries between 2006 and 2019. Higher conflict exposure does not affect firm profits, as it reduces both sales and total costs. Sales decline due to the conflict-induced reduction in the availability of production inputs and the increase in informal competition. Firms react to lower sales by reducing labor costs and expenditure on other production inputs. The effect of conflict is more detrimental for firms in countries with low-quality bureaucracy and that are initially at peace. |
| Date: | 2024–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10898 |
| By: | Balgova, Maria (Bank of England); Illing, Hannah (University of Bonn) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the differential impact of job displacement on migrants and natives. Using administrative data for Germany from 1997–2016, we identify mass layoffs and estimate the trajectory of earnings and employment of observationally similar migrants and natives displaced from the same establishment. Despite similar pre-layoff careers, migrants lose an additional 9% of their earnings in the first five years after displacement. This gap arises from both lower re-employment probabilities and post-layoff wages and is not driven by selective return migration. Key mechanisms include sorting into lower-quality firms and depending on lower-quality coworker networks during job search. |
| Keywords: | Immigration; job displacement; job search |
| JEL: | J62 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2024–12–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:1099 |
| By: | Francisco E. Ilabaca; Robert Mann; Philip Mulder |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that when natural disasters hit low-income countries, banks operating in those countries reduce their cross-border lending (Working Paper no. 24-05). |
| Keywords: | International Lending, Global Banks, Climate Finance, Natural Disasters, Information Frictions |
| Date: | 2024–07–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ofr:wpaper:24-05 |
| By: | Njinkeu, Dominique; Tchana Tchana, Fulbert; Lohi, Julie Saty; Alli, Mosuru Olukayodé |
| Abstract: | Livestock contributes 6 to 7 percent of Chad's gross domestic product and over 35 percent of total wealth in rural areas. This paper analyzes trade and transport logistics facilitation measures for curtailing the adverse effects of trade disruptions arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis pays specific attention to measures related to behavior during border crossings and transactions along the trade corridors. The relevant actors do not understand the implication of the relevant measures; hence, there is a need for a peer pressure in the framework of empowered professional organizations, enforcement of regional regulations through universal reliance on the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa’s veterinary passport, as well as the practice of physical distancing through measures eliminating congestion at border crossing posts. A bolder post-COVID-19 reform will need to foster livestock-driven agro-industrialization. |
| Date: | 2024–06–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10830 |
| By: | Stacciarini, João Henrique Santana (Federal University of Goiás); Gonçalves, Ricardo Junior de Assis Fernandes |
| Abstract: | Environmental challenges, social pressures, and international agreements underscore the need for a transition to renewable energy sources. This shift is driven by the economic feasibility of technologies such as solar and wind power. However, the transition to renewable energy faces significant obstacles: its lower energy density compared to fossil fuels requires larger structures to produce equivalent amounts of energy. Additionally, these sources have a shorter lifespan than conventional ones, leading to increased demand for minerals, which are often extracted in Global South countries. This dynamic may exacerbate the socio-environmental conflicts and impacts associated with mining. Based on data collection and analysis from various global reports, complemented by academic studies from different regions, this study explores the intrinsic connection between renewable energy sources and the expansion of mining activities, highlighting the implications of this process. |
| Date: | 2025–02–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:jdfyw_v1 |
| By: | Peter H. Egger; Yulong Wang |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a novel method to estimate firm-specific market-entry thresholds in international economics, allowing fixed costs to vary across firms alongside productivity. Our framework models market entry as an interaction between productivity and observable fixed-cost measures, extending traditional single-threshold models to ones with set-valued thresholds. Applying this approach to Chinese firm data, we estimate export-market entry thresholds as functions of domestic sales and surrogate variables for fixed costs. The results reveal substantial heterogeneity and threshold contours, challenging conventional single-threshold-point assumptions. These findings offer new insights into firm behavior and provide a foundation for further theoretical and empirical advancements in trade research. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2502.03406 |
| By: | Dasgupta, Susmita; Blankespoor, Brian; Wheeler, David J. |
| Abstract: | This paper builds on recent advances in machine-based pattern recognition to estimate species occurrence maps, using georeferenced open-source data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility. With currently available data, the estimation algorithm has produced maps for more than 600, 000 vertebrates, invertebrates, other animals, vascular plants, and fungi. The algorithm is designed for rapid map updates and estimation of new maps with continued increases in Global Biodiversity Information Facility occurrence reports. The paper compares the algorithm-produced maps with species-matched sets of expert maps for mammals, ants, and vascular plants. Using comparative species density counts in a high-resolution grid, it finds close similarity in global distribution patterns. It also traces regional differences to technical differences in estimation methods or cases where the boundaries of existing expert maps could be revised to reflect species-level patterns in Global Biodiversity Information Facility reports. The paper uses the estimated Global Biodiversity Information Facility maps to explore the global distributions of endemic species and species whose small occurrence regions increase their extinction risks. It finds a high overall incidence of endemism, with significant variations across major species groups. It also identifies about 118, 000 species whose small occurrence regions create significant extinction risks. For both endemic and small-occurrence region species, the paper finds patterns of spatial clustering that identify candidate areas for cost-effective protection. |
| Date: | 2024–06–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10821 |
| By: | Swapan-Kumar Pradhan; Viktors Stebunovs; Előd Takáts; Judit Temesvary |
| Abstract: | We use bilateral cross-border bank claims by nationality to assess the effects of geopolitics on cross-border bank flows. We show that a rise in geopolitical tensions between countries — disagreements in UN voting, broad sanctions, or sentiments captured by geopolitical risk indices — significantly dampens cross-border bank lending. Elevated geopolitical tensions also amplify the international transmission of monetary policies of major central banks, especially when geopolitical tensions coincide with monetary policy tightening. Overall, our results suggest that geopolitics is roughly as important as monetary policy in driving cross-border lending. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; Geopolitical tensions; Cross-border claims; Diff-in-diff estimations |
| JEL: | E52 F34 F42 F51 F53 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–02–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1403 |
| By: | Broadberry, Stephen (Nuffield College, Oxford, CAGE and CEPR); Harrison, Mark (CAGE and Department of Economics, University of Warwick, and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | We draw lessons from three centuries of economic warfare and sanctions. Establishing cause and effect is difficult because much else was typically changing during periods of conflict. Unintended consequences were everywhere. Impact was followed (and sometimes preceded) by adaptation so that countermeasures blunted the effectiveness of economic warfare measures and sanctions. This does not mean that the original measures were unimportant, because countermeasures were costly to the target country. Civilian lives and interests were collateral damage. Economic warfare and sanctions worked most effectively when complemented by fighting power either engaged in conventional warfare or credibly threatening war as a deterrent, and they were ineffective in its absence. |
| Keywords: | complementary force, conventional warfare, displacement effect, economic warfare, economic sanctions JEL Classification: H56, N4 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:747 |