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on International Trade |
| By: | Rebecca Freeman; Marco Garofalo; Enrico Longoni; Kalina Manova; Rebecca Mari; Thomas Prayer; Thomas Sampson; Kalina B. Manova |
| Abstract: | How does dismantling deep integration affect international trade? This paper provides new evidence on the consequences of disintegration by estimating the impact of Brexit on goods trade by UK firms. The UK’s exit from the EU’s single market and customs union in January 2021 led to an immediate, sharp drop in both exports and imports with the EU for the average firm. In addition, many exporters and importers stopped trading with the EU entirely. However, heterogeneous firm-level responses to the implementation of trade barriers mitigated Brexit’s impact on aggregate trade. The decline in exports was concentrated among smaller firms, but insignificant for the largest firms. Our estimates imply that, in the short run, leaving the EU reduced worldwide UK exports by 6:4% and worldwide imports by 3:1%. The fall in imports was driven by lower imports from the EU, which importers offset by sourcing more from the rest of the world. |
| Keywords: | trade policy, Brexit, disintegration, deep integration |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11614 |
| By: | Beckman, Jayson; Jarrell, Philip; Morgan, Stephen |
| Abstract: | The retaliatory tariffs against U.S. agricultural exports emerging in mid-2018 have been removed by all countries except for China and Turkey. The tariffs put in place by Turkey largely targeted U.S. tree-nut exports. As of November 2023, Turkey increased the most-favored-nation duty, the tariff that all World Trade Organization members pay, on almonds and walnuts, which further increased the tariff on U.S. exports. This report used a computable general equilibrium model to estimate the impacts to U.S. tree-nut exports from the higher tariff. In addition to the most-favored-nation tariff, the authors examined nontariff barriers that push the effective tariff rate for almonds and walnuts sometimes beyond Turkey’s bound rate (the highest tariff allowed by the World Trade Organization) for imports of tree nuts. The report uses that information to consider a scenario that applied the bound rate for almonds and walnuts to Turkey’s imports. Results indicate that Turkey decreases imports of tree nuts from the United States (and the world) if most-favored-nation tariffs are increased. The effects are magnified if the bound rates are considered. Results from the model indicate that increasing most-favored-nation rates would lead to decreases in U.S. exports to Turkey of almonds by 19.4 percent and walnuts by 26.6 percent. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uerseb:349305 |
| By: | Nomaler, Onder; Verspagen, Bart (RS: GSBE MGSoG, RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, Mt Economic Research Inst on Innov/Techn, RS: UNU-MERIT Theme 1) |
| Abstract: | We propose to use canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) as a way to summarize the main trends in the dynamics of trade, global value chains and development over the period 1995 – 2018. CCA is a descriptive method that extends the algorithm (non-canonical correspondence analysis) that is widely used for calculating the economic complexity index. Both techniques (CCA and economic complexity) are aimed at reducing the dimensionality of large cross-country datasets on international trade. CCA has the advantage that the correlation between the derived indicator(s) to a set of underlying economic variables (in our case at the country level) is included in the derivation of the summary indicators. This facilitates the use of >1 dimensions to summarize the trade dataset. We illustrate this by relating the summary trade indicators (CCA dimensions) to a set of variables about integration of countries in global value chains, as well as a number of general indicators about development. The results indicate a trade-off between general GVC integration and a specialization in supplying intermediates to the global economy. We construct dynamic trajectories that show how individual countries or groups of products (such as high-, medium- and low-tech) navigate this trade-off over time. |
| JEL: | O11 F14 F63 |
| Date: | 2024–06–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2024013 |
| By: | SIMOLA Antti (European Commission - JRC); FERRARI Emanuele (European Commission - JRC); NECHIFOR Victor (European Commission - JRC); BOYSEN Ole (European Commission - JRC); KIBIRU Jane; ONYANGO Christopher Hugh |
| Abstract: | This study analyses the impact of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) using a recursively dynamic global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, MAGNET. The study considers two policy measures: cuts in bilateral tariff rates and the reduction of non-tariff measures (NTMs) in intra-African trade flows. The results show that AfCFTA can generate an additional 0.55% increase in COMESA's economic growth by 2035, with a corresponding increase in household disposable income and purchasing power for lower-income households. The study also finds that COMESA will increase its total trade, especially with African trade partners, and diversify its export and import markets in Africa. The AfCFTA is expected to promote industrialization in COMESA through trade creation in manufactured goods and increase the share of agricultural consumption imports. However, non-tariff barriers remain a challenge in facilitating trade into the African markets. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc138532 |
| By: | Carlo Lombardo; Leonardo Peñaloza-Pacheco |
| Abstract: | We examine firm-level upgrading in Colombian manufacturing firms as a result of a high-skilled labor supply shock triggered by the Venezuelan exodus. Using a unique and confidential dataset from 2013 to 2019 and a shift-share instrumental variables approach, we find that the increased supply of skilled workers primarily drove high-skill hires, especially in R&D divisions. This skill-upgrading process boosted investments in R&D activities. Improved access to higher-quality inputs led to better production and organizational processes, product enhancements, and an increased likelihood of obtaining quality certifications, which serve as a straightforward objective measure of firm-level upgrading. Collectively, these changes were crucial for firms to increase their exports at both the extensive and intensive margins. This effect was driven by a rise in differentiated product exports, allowing firms to enter new and more sophisticated markets, particularly in high- and upper-middle-income countries. |
| Keywords: | firm-level upgrading, migration, trade, development |
| JEL: | D22 D24 F22 F14 F16 J61 L16 O14 O31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11645 |
| By: | Gustavo de Souza; Haishi Li |
| Abstract: | How do import tariffs affect employment? We develop an empirical strategy to identify the effects of tariffs using difference-in-differences, comparing anti-dumping (AD) investigations resulting in dumping tariffs to those not resulting in dumping tariffs. We find that an AD tariff decreases imports and increases employment in the protected sector. Moreover, downstream firms decrease employment, while upstream ones are unaffected because the protected sector sources inputs abroad. Using a model to quantify the aggregate effects, we find that the Brazilian AD policy increased employment by 0.06% at a welfare loss of 2.4%. |
| Keywords: | employment, tariffs, anti-dumping, international trade |
| JEL: | F13 F16 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11654 |
| By: | Alessandra Bonfiglioli; Rosario Crinò; Mattia Filomena; Gino Gancia |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the determinants of comparative advantage in Artificial Intelligence (AI)-intensive industries using a comprehensive dataset of US imports from 68 countries across 79 manufacturing and service industries over the period 1999–2019. Using a novel measure of AI intensity based on the prevalence of occupations requiring expertise in machine learning and data analysis, we identify key factors influencing exports in AI-intensive industries. Our analysis reveals that countries with larger STEM graduate populations, broader Internet penetration and higher export volumes exhibit stronger export performance in AI-intensive industries. In contrast, regulatory barriers to digital trade are associated with lower AI-intensive exports. These results are robust to controlling for traditional sources of comparative advantage and addressing potential threats to identification. Our findings have implications for understanding competitiveness in the digital economy and highlight that fostering capabilities in data-driven industries may be particularly important due to their pronounced scale economies. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, international trade, digital data, comparative advantage |
| JEL: | F10 F14 J23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11642 |
| By: | Tadashi Ito |
| Abstract: | Although there are many news articles about tariff dodging by re-routing made-in-China goods through third countries and relabelling them as made-in-Mexico or made-in-Viet Nam, there are no scientific studies on the issue. This paper provides statistical evidence on whether such practices are taking place. Using monthly trade statistics at the most disaggregated level, analysis using data up to 2019, the year before the COVID-19 shock, show little evidence of roundabout trade. With an extended data set up to 2023, overall, there is little sign of roundabout trade, although some slight signs of roundabout trade for Mexico and Viet Nam. |
| Keywords: | Trump tariffs; Roundabout trade |
| JEL: | F14 |
| Date: | 2024–11–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2024-31 |
| By: | RUEDA CANTUCHE Jose Manuel (European Commission - JRC); LOPEZ ALVAREZ Jorge (European Commission - JRC); PEDAUGA Luis (European Commission - JRC); CATALAN PIERA Alba (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | In her political guidelines, President Von der Leyen emphasised the significance of “Clean Trade and Investment Partnerships” to en-hance competitiveness and decrease reliance on other world economic regions, while rein-forcing trade defence mechanisms. Within this policy context, this policy brief aims to help prioritising trade policy actions by un-ravelling the EU vulnerabilities and dependen-cies at three levels: EU, national and territorial, with a high industry detail. This brief is focused on the possibility of a change in US trade defence policy towards China in light of the forthcoming US elections, which may affect EU exports to the US with high Chinese value added content. At EU level, China accounted for around 18-27% of the foreign value added incorporated in the EU exports to US of motor vehicles, ma-chinery and equipment and computer and electronics. At national level, Germany and France alone cumulated more than half of the total Chinese value added content in the EU exports to US whereas other smaller Eastern European countries, such as Estonia or Hungary, showed high relative dependence levels. At regional level, Stuttgart and Upper Bavaria (Germany), Ile-de-France (France), North Bra-bant (Netherlands) and the Southern, and Eastern and Midland regions (Ireland) ac-counted for half of the total Chinese value added content in EU exports to US. Our findings can help informing EU trade de-fensive measures and prepare upcoming pref-erential trade agreements and investment partnerships to be more effective in the re-gions and industries that would be more im-pacted by US trade policy shifts towards pe-nalising the entrance of goods and services with high Chinese value added content. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc139823 |
| By: | Marius Faber; Kemal Kilic; Gleb Kozliakov; Dalia Marin |
| Abstract: | The world economy has become more and more globalized as firms have organized production along global value chains. But more recently, globalization has stalled. This paper shows that higher uncertainty, in combination with better automation technologies, has likely contributed to that trend reversal. We show that plausibly exogenous exposure to uncertainty in developing countries leads to reshoring to high-income countries, but only if industrial robots have made this economically feasible. In contrast, we find no strong evidence of nearshoring or diversification. We address concerns about reverse causality by showing that results hold when using two alternative identification strategies. In a narrative approach, we use only locally generated spikes in uncertainty, for which the narrative around the events suggest that they are plausibly exogenous. In a small open economy approach, we restrict the sample to small developed countries that are unlikely to cause uncertainty in the developing world. Moreover, we show that results are robust to the main threats to identification related to shift-share instruments. |
| Keywords: | Global value chains, Uncertainty, Automation, Reshoring, Shift-share design |
| JEL: | F14 F15 F16 J23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2025-02 |
| By: | Eliav Danziger; Leif Danziger |
| Abstract: | We study how demand uncertainty affects risk-neutral firms. number of export destinations when uncertainty is resolved after firms choose their export destinations and output. We show that firms’ ability to allocate their output across destinations in response to destination-specific shock realizations provides even risk-neutral firms an incentive to export. Without appealing to firm-country heterogeneity or increasing marginal cost, our framework can explain why firms export to some but not all ex-ante indistinguishable destinations. We also show how, for a given firm productivity, the optimal number of export destinations depends on the correlation of shocks across the home and foreign countries. |
| Keywords: | international trade, demand uncertainty, risk-neutral firms, optimal number of export destinations |
| JEL: | F12 F61 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11633 |
| By: | Antoine Bouët; Leysa Maty Sall; Yu Zheng |
| Abstract: | This Policy Brief conducts an ex-ante evaluation of Donald Trump’s protectionist proposal, an increase by 10 percentage points of tariffs on all goods from all origins, except Canada and Mexico, combined with 60 percentage points of tariffs on all goods from China. US partners retaliate. World GDP declines by 0.5%, with sharp contraction in the US (-1.3%) and China (-1.3%), limited negative impact in France and Germany, and significantly positive effects on Canada and Mexico. Trade between the US and China becomes almost decoupled; US wages fall while Mexican wages rise. Trade retaliation not only punishes the US, but also allows some countries to reduce their losses in terms of trade and economic activity. Most US trading partners benefit from a more protectionist US trade policy against China. |
| Keywords: | Tariffs;Trump;Trade war;Trade |
| JEL: | F02 F17 F50 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepipb:2024-49 |
| By: | Britz, Wolfgang; Olekseyuk, Zoryana; Vogel, Tim |
| Abstract: | In times of heightened uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, it is increasingly vital to secure a development-friendly approach toward African countries. They are among the most vulnerable to climate change, conflicts and pandemics, yet are also gaining geo-economic significance. Given the expiry of the US Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) in 2020 and the upcoming expiry of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in September 2025, Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries urge policymakers to timely reauthorise and upgrade the non-reciprocal trade programme to improve market access to the US and ensure long-term support for sustainable development across the African continent. While the AGOA Renewal and Improvement Act of 2024 was introduced to Congress with bipartisan support, the election of Donald Trump and his "America First" approach have increased doubts about a swift extension of AGOA. This policy brief examines the potential effects of the expirations of GSP and AGOA using a multi-region Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. By simulating the shift from duty-free to Most Favoured Nation (MFN) treatment, we find the following: All in all, aggregated effects over all countries are rather muted while some specific countries face strong losses. Whereas bilateral exports of AGOA-eligible countries to the US decline by 3.7%, their total exports fall by only 0.1%, with real GDP remaining almost unaffected. Looking more closely, specific SSA countries would face high bilateral losses: The most substantial reduction of exports to the US occurs in Lesotho (-35%), Malawi (-25%) and Kenya (-16%), while welfare decline is the highest in Lesotho and Mauritius. The most affected sectors are sugar, wearing apparel, leather, dairy products, and beverages and tobacco. The limited aggregate effects of a loss in trade preferences are mainly driven by relatively weak ties of SSA to the US and rather low US MFN tariff rates. This highlights the limited effectiveness of the AGOA preference scheme, indicating that its renewal should go hand in hand with a comprehensive modernisation of the programme. While the AGOA Renewal and Improvement Act of 2024 acknowledges this, it still falls short of modernising the programme in some key areas. To ensure long-term benefits for SSA economies, we recommend: - A swift reauthorisation for a longer period, incorporating continuation provisions to reduce future uncertainty. - More transparent and predictable eligibility reviews, with a possibility of partial exclusion for non-compliance, would also help mitigate uncertainty. - Expansion of rules of origin, which is crucial for stimulating intra-continental trade and enhancing value addition within SSA. - Widening the programme's scope by addressing, for example, digital trade, services, non-tariff measures, regulatory cooperation and investment facilitation. |
| Keywords: | global governance, transnational governance, Africa, trade and investment |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:idospb:309597 |
| By: | Glauber, Joseph W.; Mamun, Abdullah |
| Abstract: | Rice is a major food crop supplying, on average, 516 kcal per capita per day or roughly 17.3% of total calories consumed globally in 2022. Rice production and consumption is concentrated in Asia though rice has grown as an important staple crop outside of Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa currently accounts for 7 percent of global rice consumption but account for over 28 percent of total rice imports. Rice is a thinly traded crop compared to other staples like wheat and maize. Rice imports account for about 10 percent of total consumption today but import penetration is expected to grow to about 11 percent by 2033. India is the world’s largest exporter accounting for about 40 percent of total exports in recent years. Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam and the United States account for an additional 40 percent of world exports. Mid-range projections for the next 10 years suggest that trends in place will likely continue. Yields are assumed to keep pace with global consumption trends. Sub-Saharan Africa will account for a significant share of the overall growth in consumption. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that Sub-Saharan Africa will account for 27 percent of the growth in global rice consumption and 47 percent of the growth in global imports over the next 10 years. Climate and government distortions remain the single largest vulnerabilities to the rice market. Because of the large concentration of rice production in South and Southeast Asia, crop production is vulnerable to El Niño and other climatic events like the Indian Ocean Dipole which can bring hot and dry weather and disrupt the monsoon season. Since rice is so thinly traded, market restrictions imposed by one of more of the major exporting countries can cause large price impacts. In 2007/08, export bans affected as much as 80 percent of rice trade which caused global prices to almost triple. In July 2023, India imposed export restrictions fearing that domestic production would be harmed by a developing El Nino event. Global rice prices rose by 30 percent as a result. Importing countries bore much of the brunt of those increases, particularly poorer countries in the rice-importing areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. Other potential vulnerabilities include logistical issues, particularly bottlenecks in the major shipping lanes of Asia. |
| Keywords: | climate; rice; risk; trade; vulnerability |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2310 |
| By: | Wu, Ningzhu |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of international trade in shaping the economic development of Imperial China and Western Europe, focusing on the 50 years following the Opium War, a pivotal moment in the Great Divergence. Utilizing newly discovered primary data from Chinese Customs records, this study explores how trade dynamics—including volume, volatility, and product categories—interacted with political, institutional, and colonial factors. While trade significantly boosted industrialization in Western Europe, China’s weak institutions and colonial exploitation made it particularly vulnerable to trade fluctuations. Unlike other peripheral economies that experienced deindustrialization, China faced economic instability without industrial decline due to deteriorating trade terms. Trade, acting as an influence amplifier, magnified China’s institutional weaknesses, further deepening the divergence between China and the West. This paper contributes fresh insights into the broader impact of trade on the Great Divergence and offers practical lessons for underdeveloped regions today. |
| JEL: | N75 N73 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:127152 |
| By: | Nii-Aponsah, Hubert (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, Mt Economic Research Inst on Innov/Techn); Verspagen, Bart (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, Mt Economic Research Inst on Innov/Techn, RS: UNU-MERIT Theme 1); Mohnen, Pierre (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, QE Econometrics) |
| Abstract: | Technological progress in automation technologies, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), is expected to impact production activities beyond the home country adopting them as countries interact within the global trade system. Firms tend to offshore production activities to other countries when it is more profitable to produce elsewhere than at home. The adoption of automation technologies reduces the cost of producing in the home country, making previous offshore locations relatively less attractive. From a global perspective, the altered cost structure induces reshoring: a reorganization of production activities back home or to other lower-cost locations. Developing economies, which previously served as low-cost locations, could be adversely impacted by experiencing a drop in the production of the affected sectors and goods. This paper analyses the potential effect of automation on the global portfolio of trade specialization based on the principle of comparative advantage, employed in an extension of Duchin’s World Trade Model to include non-tradable sectors. Through scenario-based analyses within the global economic context and using data, primarily, from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) and the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC), we find that countries in lower-income Asia are likely to be the most adversely affected by reshoring induced by automation in advanced economies. |
| JEL: | O33 D33 E25 F14 F17 F47 J21 |
| Date: | 2023–05–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2023018 |
| By: | Sumit Chowdhury; Sugata Marjit; Gouranga Das |
| Abstract: | While FTA negotiations are proliferating, our paper shows that targeting the appropriate sector is crucial for generating employment opportunities subsequent to FTA. In particular, we show that, countering conventional wisdom, targeting skill-biased exports and not the sector that employs unskilled workers who usually constitute the large core of the unemployed, could ameliorate the unemployment problem. The mechanism hinges on how the demand for goods produced by the non-traded sector is stimulated by such a policy. If targeting the skilled sector with an FTA can stimulate local demand more, employment impact of FTA may be more significant. |
| Keywords: | FTA, minimum wage, demand effect, non-tradable, employment, elasticity of substitution, factor-intensity |
| JEL: | C52 D50 F16 J21 J31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11657 |
| By: | TODO Yasuyuki |
| Abstract: | With the rise of geopolitical risk around the world, there is a growing need to build supply chains that take economic security into account, and as a result, large-scale industrial policies have been implemented in various countries to foster domestic industries. In order to respond to this reality, policy and managerial advice based on international economics are also necessarily changing from the previous focus on free trade and competition. This paper discusses policies for building resilient supply chains and strengthening economic security, based on recent theoretical and empirical research outcomes. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:polidp:25005 |
| By: | Matthieu Crozet (RITM - Réseaux Innovation Territoires et Mondialisation - Université Paris-Saclay); Laura Hering (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Sandra Poncet (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Abstract Export growth affects individuals through numerous and contradictory channels. In China, the development of exports has promoted economic development and income growth, but it has also disrupted social structures and work environments. This paper explores the overall effect of exports on perceived well-being by combining responses from a large longitudinal survey covering over 45, 000 Chinese with a shift-share measure of local export opportunities. Results show that individuals' perceived life satisfaction increases significantly in prefectures that benefited from greater export opportunities, despite a negative effect on self-reported health. The positive well-being gains go beyond a simple income effect. These non-monetary gains are related to the individuals' professional life: export-related well-being gains are stronger for working-age individuals (especially men and low-skilled workers), are largest for workers in the manufacturing sector (which produces the vast majority of China's exports), and are found when the satisfaction indicator focuses on work but not on other aspects of daily life. |
| Keywords: | Happiness Export opportunities Globalization China. JEL codes: F61 F66 I31 J28, Happiness, Export opportunities, Globalization, China |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-04505684 |
| By: | Andreoni, Antonio; Anzolin, Guendalina; Labrunie, Mateus; Sartorello Spinola, Danilo |
| Abstract: | This research pioneers the construction of a novel Digital Production Technology Classification (DPTC) based on the latest Harmonised Commodity Description and Coding System (HS2017) of the World Customs Organisation. The DPTC enables the identification and comprehensive analysis of 127 tradable products associated with digital production technologies (DPTs). The development of this classification offers a substantial contribution to empirical research and policy analysis. It enables an extensive exploration of international trade in DPTs, such as the identification of emerging trade networks comprising final goods, intermediate components, and instrumentation technologies and the intricate regional and geopolitical dynamics related to DPTs. In this paper, we deploy our DPTC within a network analysis methodological framework to analyse countries' engagements with DPTs through bilateral and multilateral trade. By comparing the trade networks in DPTs in 2012 and 2019, we unveil dramat ic shifts in the global DPTs' network structure, different countries' roles, and their degree of centrality. Notably, our findings shed light on China's expanding role and the changing trade patterns of the USA in the digital technology realm. The analysis also brings to the fore the increasing significance of Southeast Asian countries, revealing the emergence of a regional hub within this area, characterised by dense bilateral networks in DPTs. Furthermore, our study points to the fragmented network structures in Europe and the bilateral dependencies that developed there. Being the first systematic DPTC, also deployed within a network analysis framework, we expect the classification to become an indispensable tool for researchers, policymakers, and stakeholders engaged in research on digitalisation and digital industrial policy. |
| JEL: | O14 O33 F14 |
| Date: | 2023–12–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2023044 |
| By: | Jeffrey H. Bergstrand (University of Notre Dame); Matthew W. Clance (University of Pretoria); Joao M.C. Santos Silva (University of Surrey) |
| Abstract: | Economic integration agreements (EIAs) can have substantial welfare effects, but there is now considerable evidence suggesting that these effects can be very heterogeneous. However, most studies neglect this heterogeneity and simply estimate the coefficient of a single EIA dummy on the conditional mean of bilateral trade flows. We propose the novel use of Poisson-based expectile regressions to estimate the heterogeneous effects of EIAs across the entire conditional distribution. Like standard Poisson regression, this method does not need the dependent variable to be logged, accommodates observations at zero, and is easy to implement. Using the proposed estimator, we find systematic evidence that agreements have larger effects at the lower tail of the conditional distribution. Additionally, we use the method to investigate the causes of heterogeneity. Our results suggest that the success of trade liberalizations strongly depends on potential for expansions along the extensive margin. For instance, at the 10th conditional expectile, the estimated partial equilibrium effects of EIAs for country-pairs with large potential for expansion at the extensive margin is over six times larger than that of country-pairs with small potential. |
| JEL: | F1 F13 F14 F15 C21 C51 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sur:surrec:0125 |
| By: | Baum, Christopher F.; Lööf, Hans; Stephan, Andreas; Zimmermann, Klaus |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the wage earnings of fully-employed previous refugee immigrants in Sweden. Using administrative employer-employee data from 1990 onwards, about 100, 000 refugee immigrants who arrived between 1980 and 1996 and were granted asylum, are compared to a matched sample of native-born workers. Employing re-centered influence function (RIF) quantile regressions to wage earnings for the period 2011–2015, the occupational-task-based Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition approach shows that refugees perform better than natives at the median wage, controlling for individual and firm characteristics. This overperformance is due to female refugee immigrants, who have—relative to their endowment—higher wages than comparable native-born female peers up to the 8th decile of the wage distribution. Given their endowments, refugee immigrant females perform better than native females across all occupational tasks studied, including non-routine cognitive tasks. A remarkable similarity exists in the relative wage distributions among various refugee groups, suggesting that cultural differences and the length of time spent in the host country do not significantly affect their labor market performance. |
| JEL: | O15 J60 J24 F22 C23 |
| Date: | 2024–02–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2024004 |
| By: | Willem THORBECKE; CHEN Chen; Nimesh SALIKE |
| Abstract: | China’s exports increased from $62 billion in 1990 to $3.6 trillion in 2022. This surge has generated protectionism abroad. Researchers found that renminbi appreciations in earlier years decreased China’s exports. This paper presents time series and panel data evidence indicating that exchange rates after the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis no longer affect aggregate exports. It also finds that almost all individual export categories were sensitive to exchange rates before the GFC but that less than half are afterwards. These results imply that, if policymakers want to influence China’s trade, they need to use instruments other than exchange rates. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25010 |
| By: | Julien Martin (UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research); Isabelle Mejean (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research); Mathieu Parenti (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, ULB - Université libre de Bruxelles, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | We study how stickiness in business relationships influences the trade impact of aggregate uncertainty. To begin, we construct a product-level index of relationship stickiness using firm-to-firm relationship duration data. We then demonstrate how relationship stickiness shapes trade dynamics in response to uncertainty shocks. We find that episodes of uncertainty lead to a decline in the overall establishment of new business relationships, with the impact varying depending on the level of stickiness. In markets characterized by high stickiness, uncertainty shocks primarily impede investments in new firm-to-firm relationships. In contrast, for non-sticky products, the adjustment to uncertainty shocks mainly manifests as the disruption of existing relationships. |
| Keywords: | international trade, economic uncertainty, relationship stickiness |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-04516313 |
| By: | Kristian Behrens; Sergei Kichko; Filipp Ushchev |
| Abstract: | Abstract Kimball preferences possess properties that make them a powerful tool for multi-sector applied general equilibrium. While they are homothetic, they also can be made arbitrarily close to constant elasticity of substitution (ces) preferences, thereby sharing some of their properties ‘by continuity'. We develop a trade model which brings together traded and nontraded sectors, variable markups, and costly trade for this rich class of homothetic preferences. We characterize the consequences—for both sectors—of trade liberalization in traded sector. Numerical simulations for a calibrated version of the model reveal that the elasticity of utility with respect to trade costs is about 25%–27%, depending on whether traded and nontrade goods are complements or substitutes. |
| Keywords: | Kimball preferences, monopolistic competition, trade liberalization, variable markups |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/387756 |
| By: | Bouët, Antoine; Traoré, Fousseini; Mamboundou, Pierre; Diop, Insa; Sy, Abdourahmane |
| Abstract: | Food security deteriorated in Africa during the past decade, and the number of undernourished people has been increasing since 2010. The prevalence of undernourishment is now above pre-pandemic levelsat 9.7% compared with 7.2% in 2019, and Africa reports the highest level in the world. External factors, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have contributed to this increase Projections show that almost 600 million people in Africa will be chronically undernourished in 2030. Moreover, Africa is not on track for SDG2, eradicate hunger by 2030. To achieve food security and reduce the number of undernourished people, many policymakers are advocating for food self-sufficiency. Relying on local production and promoting it through various policy measures, including restrictive trade policies, appears to many to be a natural solution. Yet, there has been a long-standing debate among analysts as to whether trade restrictions are a good strategy, especially in Africa, to achieve food security. The proponents of food self-sufficiency argue that trade liberalization increases food dependency (and import bills) and makes consumers vulnerable to external shocks in food availability, as well as exposing them to unhealthy foods. They advocate for stimulating local production with subsidies and trade restrictions. For the opponents, opening borders to international trade is a guarantee of cheap and easy access to diversified food products. Furthermore, by partially decoupling local markets from domestic shocks, trade can also help stabilize domestic food markets. This report contributes to that debate. Using both qualitative and quantitative analysis, we reach the conclusion that food self-sufficiency is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for food security. Food security is a multidimensional concept, and only two dimensions– availability and utilization—seem to be affected by food self-sufficiency in Africa. Also, while public support to agriculture can help achieve food self-sufficiency, its impact is not linear, and beyond a certain threshold, diminishing returns are observed. Overall, different approaches can achieve food security, and there is no “one-size-fits-all strategy.†International or regional trade can contribute to food security and stabilize domestic food markets, as regional production is usually less volatile than domestic supply. |
| Keywords: | food security; nutrition; sustainable development goals; self-sufficiency; trade; policies; agriculture; Africa |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:sfs4yp:4 |
| By: | Lionel Fontagné (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique); Ariell Reshef (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Gianluca Santoni (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique); Giulio Vannelli (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | We study how technology adoption and changes in global value chain (GVC) integration jointly affect labor shares and business function specialization in a sample of 14 manufacturing industries in 14 European countries in 1999–2011. Increases in upstream, forward GVC integration directly reduce labor shares, mostly through reductions in fabrication, but also via other business functions. We do not find any direct effects of robot adoption; robotization affects labor only indirectly, by increasing upstream, forward GVC integration. In this sense robotization is "upstream-biased". Rapid robotization in China shaped robotization in Europe and, therefore, relative demand for labor there. |
| Keywords: | labor share, functional specialization, global value chains, upstreamness, technological change, automation, robots |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-04346960 |
| By: | Dom Kandpinijsha (Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand) |
| Abstract: | Within the global value chain, firms' ability to generate economic rents—additional profits above baseline returns—is crucial to their competitiveness, with state-allocated exogenous rents also shaping industry structure. This research examines rent dynamics in the Thai automotive industry, focusing on the interplay between policy rents and GVC rents. It traces these dynamics along the evolving path from the inception of the automotive industry in Thailand to the ongoing disruptive transition to new energy vehicles (NEVs), which accentuates the established configuration of power and interests across the industry. Findings indicate that: 1) local firms occupy subordinate roles throughout the development trajectory due to a lack of policy rents specifically targeting the effective enhancement of indigenous productive competencies; 2) when an industry has matured with established positions within the value chain, stakeholders endowed with significant rents stand to capture more benefits from policy rents, especially during transitional phases; 3) as local firms are not encouraged to proactively accumulate technological rents, they resort to seeking non-productive rents as opportunities permit. This research underscores how the interaction between state policy and foreign investment influences the architecture of the Thai automotive industry, offering insights into broader economic effects in emerging economies. |
| Keywords: | economic rents, industrial policy, global value chain (GVC), foreign direct investment (FDI), automotive industry, NEV transition |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0475 |
| By: | Valverde Carbonell, Jorge (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, Mt Economic Research Inst on Innov/Techn); Micco, Alejandro |
| Abstract: | Minerals are critical for the current energy transition since new clean technologies intensively use a large variety of them. But at the same time, mineral production contributes to a large extent to CO2 world emissions. This dilemma constitutes one of the main challenges for the current techno-economic paradigm shift and, opens green windows of opportunity (GWO) for developing countries. One option to tackle this dilemma is pricing CO2 emissions to induce a restructuring of the mineral global value chains (GVCs) towards minimizing CO2 emissions. The new trade–environmental regulations, such as the cross-border adjustment mechanism of the European Union, point in this direction. In this context, countries with cleaner energy matrixes and the ability to vertically integrate the production of minerals (avoiding emissions) present a competitive advantage. This paper empirically assesses whether pricing CO2 emissions along the GVCs could open a GWO in the copper and lithium processing industries for latecomers. The methodology consists of accounting for the CO2 emissions along the GVCs of the Leader (China) and First-Follower (Chile) countries, pricing the CO2 emissions and incorporating them into each production cost vector. The catching-up process is evaluated by the production cost convergence once CO2 emissions are considered. The results show that a carbon price of US$96.3/tCO2e reduces the cash cost gap of copper processing between Chile and China from 232% to 25%. In turn, this price enlarges the cost competitiveness advantage of Chile at producing lithium carbonate and allows the convergence of Chile in the lithium hydroxide production. Once the CO2 emission value are incorporated into the cash cost vector, producing lithium carbonate and hydroxide in China vis á vis Chile is 69.5% and 5.4% more expensive respectively. Therefore, the study shows that GWOs in the mineral processing industries can be opened for developing countries conditional to favorable technology and endowments. The catching up result is very sensible to the carbon price level and the scope of priced CO2 emissions. |
| JEL: | O31 Q55 F61 F64 F68 L72 Q37 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–02–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2024005 |
| By: | Diego S. Cardoso; Stephen W. Salant; Julien Daubanes; Julien Xavier Daubanes |
| Abstract: | To reduce funds for Russia’s Ukraine invasion, Western governments imposed a price ceiling on Russian seaborne oil exports using Western services. To sell above that ceiling, Russia developed a “shadow fleet” which uses no such services. We use a calibrated model driven by this fleet’s expansion to assess various sanctions. While all sanctions reduce the present value of Russia’s profits, we find that the tighter the ceiling and the tighter the enforcement, the less harm sanctions impose, contradicting conventional wisdom based on Hotelling lemma. However, policies to reduce the shadow fleet’s size may increase the sanction’s effectiveness. |
| Keywords: | economic warfare, sanctions evasion, Hotelling’s lemma |
| JEL: | D04 L51 Q41 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11618 |
| By: | Ayalew, Hailemariam; Breisinger, Clemens; Karugia, Joseph T.; Kimaiyo, Faith Chepkemoi; Kimathi, Sally; Olwande, John |
| Abstract: | Amid global supply chain disruptions and an escalating fertilizer crisis, Kenya’s National Fertilizer Subsidy Program (NFSP) emerges as a critical intervention to enhance agricultural resilience. This paper investigates the NFSP's impacts on fertilizer adoption, maize productivity, and market dynamics, employing a quasi-experimental design with two-way fixed effects and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation. We leverage random variation in government-issued SMS notifications to identify causal effects. Results show that the NFSP increased fertilizer adoption by 7%, leading to maize yield gains of 26–37% (164–233.5 kg/acre), with greater benefits for younger and more educated farmers. However, the program caused a substantial crowding-out effect, reducing private-sector fertilizer use by 49–57%. Barriers such as financial constraints, delayed notifications, and logistical inefficiencies limited equitable access, undermining the program's potential. Despite these challenges, the NFSP was cost-effective, offering favorable value-cost ratios for farmers and the government. To enhance impact and sustainability, we recommend addressing participation barriers and integrating private-sector agro-dealers into the distribution framework. This study provides crucial insights for policymakers on designing subsidy programs that balance immediate productivity gains with market sustainability, especially during periods of global agricultural uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | subsidies; fertilizers; resilience; supply chain disruptions; supply chains; global value chains; maize; smallholders; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Kenya |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2306 |
| By: | Shota Watanabe; Ema Ogura; Keita Oikawa (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | The transition to data-driven societies has heightened the importance of balancing the free flow of data with robust data protection for privacy, intellectual property, trade secrets, and national security. While different countries have introduced various data governance frameworks, including comprehensive privacy laws, differences in regulations across borders hinder data flow, increasing compliance costs and limiting business expansion, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises. The concept of Data Free Flow with Trust (DFFT), introduced at the G20 in 2019, aims to address this balance by promoting interoperability while respecting national sovereignty. In ASEAN, however, regulatory fragmentation further complicates cross-border data flow. Variations in data localisation policies and personal data governance amongst ASEAN Member States (AMS) create significant challenges for businesses. For instance, differences in requirements for sensitive data, data subject rights, and security measures necessitate additional compliance efforts for companies operating in multiple jurisdictions. Moreover, non-personal data regulations, such as restrictions on supply chain and research and development (R&D) data sharing or mandatory technology transfers, impede global R&D collaboration and discourage investment in certain countries. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of data-related regulations in ASEAN and proposes policy recommendations for the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA), set for 2025. It highlights the need for transparency, regulatory alignment, and various mechanisms to ensure smoother cross-border data flow, ultimately fostering regional digital integration. |
| Keywords: | ASEAN; data governance; Data Free Flow with Trust (DFFT); ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) |
| JEL: | K2 |
| Date: | 2025–01–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2024-32 |
| By: | Antoine Bouët (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique); Erica Perego (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique); Vincent Vicard (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique); Mathieu Fouquet (Commissariat général au développement durable - Ministère de l'Ecologie, du Développement durable et du Transport); Alexandre Godzinski (Commissariat général au développement durable - Ministère de l'Ecologie, du Développement durable et du Transport); Frédéric Ghersi (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Sébastien Jean (LIRSA - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire de recherche en sciences de l'action - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM]); William l'Heudé (Direction Générale du Trésor); Vincent Aussilloux (France Stratégie); Romain Schweizer (France Stratégie); Christophe C. Gouel (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Paul Malliet (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); François Langot (CEPREMAP - Centre pour la recherche économique et ses applications - ECO ENS-PSL - Département d'économie de l'ENS-PSL - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, GAINS - Groupe d'Analyse des Itinéraires et des Niveaux Salariaux - UM - Le Mans Université); Aude Pommeret (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc, France Stratégie); Fabien Tripier (Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, CEPREMAP - Centre pour la recherche économique et ses applications - ECO ENS-PSL - Département d'économie de l'ENS-PSL - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Les conséquences économiques et environnementales des politiques françaises de transition énergétique doivent s'envisager dans le cadre d'une économie ouverte. Tout d'abord, le rythme des efforts et les modalités de la décarbonation de l'activité économique sont en partie dictés au niveau européen, comme dans le cas du marché de quotas d'émission pour les industries hautement émissives. Mais surtout, l'Accord de Paris inscrit l'effort français au sein d'une variété d'engagements nationaux de décarbonation, tant en termes d'ambition que d'instruments mis en œuvre pour y parvenir. Cette diversité des efforts et instruments au niveau international contribue à déterminer les effets économiques des choix faits en matière de politiques climatiques adoptées au niveau européen et français. Ce rapport propose un tour d'horizon synthétique de cette dimension internationale des politiques de transition énergétique. En dépit d'éléments communs, notamment leur objectif final de réduction de l'empreinte carbone de l'activité économique, les politiques climatiques des différents pays sont hétérogènes, qu'il s'agisse de leur ambition – à savoir le niveau de leurs engagements en termes de décarbonation – ou des politiques (prix, réglementations, subventions ou crédits d'impôt) mises en œuvre. Il est dès lors illusoire de tenter de réduire les effets de cette hétérogénéité à une métrique commune de l'effort de chaque pays, comme le serait un équivalent prix des mesures réglementaires ou incitatives en place dans les différents pays. |
| Keywords: | changement climatique, Compétitivité, Transition Energétique, Politique environmentale |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-04248556 |
| By: | Mahirah Mahusin (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Hilmy Prilliadi (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | The growth of digital payment use in ASEAN has been significant, with digital payments accounting for over 50% of transactions and projected to reach US$416.60 billion by 2028. This expansion supports financial inclusion, enhances e-commerce, and bolsters micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises. However, challenges – such as interoperability, regulatory fragmentation, and data security – persist. ASEAN’s initiatives, including the Declaration on Advancing Regional Payment Connectivity and Promoting Local Currency Transaction, aim to address these issues. This policy brief emphasises the need for harmonised regulations, enhanced cross-sectoral collaboration, and robust security measures to ensure the seamless integration and sustainable growth of digital payments in the region. Latest Articles |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2024-13 |
| By: | Menéndez de Medina, Maria (RS: GSBE MGSoG, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance); Pietrobelli, Carlo (RS: UNU-MERIT); Valverde Carbonell, Jorge (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, Mt Economic Research Inst on Innov/Techn) |
| Abstract: | Minerals' criticality and countries' mining competitiveness are two dimensions that have gained relevance in the economic and policy agenda due to the key role of minerals in the energy transition. To a certain extent, these product-country dimensions can be seen as two faces of the same coin, which intertwine and simultaneously co-determine each other. Therefore, economic complexity techniques appear as a useful methodology to simultaneously estimate both dimensions. This paper employs economic complexity techniques to build an unsupervised Fitness-Criticality algorithm, that allows simultaneously estimating countries' mining competitiveness (Fitness Mining Index) and minerals' criticality (Criticality Minerals Index). Our indexes are efficient in terms of the set of information employed, and do not rely on subjective perspectives and assessments. The results of the estimates suggest that South Africa, Russia, the United States, Norway, Canada, Australia and Chile are the most competitive countries. Moreover, the Platinum Group Metals, Lithium, Silicon and Rare Earths appear as the most critical minerals. These results are consistent with other methodologies employed by different organizations that separately estimate both dimensions and derive countries’ and minerals’ rankings. |
| JEL: | Q30 Q37 O13 |
| Date: | 2023–07–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2023025 |