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on International Trade |
| By: | Feodora Teti |
| Abstract: | This paper reveals significant errors in a key variable in international trade: tariff rates. The issues arise from incomplete reporting, leading to measurement error from false interpolation by the data provider, the World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS), and selection bias from dropping tariffs when no trade is recorded. I develop a novel interpolation algorithm to correct these issues and construct a global tariff dataset. Reestimating recent studies relying on WITS data highlights the importance of correcting these errors. Studies using cross-country tariff variation, such as estimates of the trade elasticity, are particularly sensitive to the mishandling of the tariff data. |
| Keywords: | tariffs, MFN, preferences, trade elasticity, WITS |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11590 |
| By: | Gonciarz, Tomasz; Verbeet, Thomas |
| Abstract: | The Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) principle has historically been instrumental in promoting stability and equitable trade conditions. In recent decades there has been a rise in bilateral and regional trade agreements, which deviate from the MFN principle in providing more favourable tariff treatment to specific partners. At the same time, WTO Members can, under certain circumstances, raise trade barriers against imports for different reasons, including to counter unfair trade practices. Using a novel and comprehensive dataset based on customs data submitted by WTO Members to the WTO's Integrated Database and complemented by other sources, this paper provides an in-depth analysis of global merchandise trade flows under both MFN and preferential tariffs. The methodology takes into account trade remedies, including anti-dumping and countervailing duties, additional duties in the US and China, and the utilization of trade preferences by incorporating preferential tariffs and bilateral trade flows for 184 economies. The research highlights the nuanced effects of MFN trade across different economies, regions, product and income groups, and compares MFN treatment on imports and exports. The paper concludes that more than 80% of global trade in goods is conducted on MFN terms and underscores the continued importance of the multilateral framework for the global trading system. |
| Keywords: | World Trade Organization, International Trade, Most-Favoured-Nation, Regional Trade Agreements, Preferential Trade Arrangements, Preference Utilization, Trade remedies, Antidumping and Countervailing Duties |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 F53 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wtowps:308810 |
| By: | Pau S. Pujolas; Jack Rossbach |
| Abstract: | We apply the quantitative theory in Pujolas and Rossbach (2024), which determines optimal tariff rates in a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium model with input-output linkages and services trade, to a hypothetical trade war between the United States and Canada. While the United States can “win" a trade war if its tariffs against Canadian products are optimally chosen, a 25% across-the-board tariff met with optimal retaliatory tariffs by Canada causes the United States to also lose the trade war. Canada loses the trade war in all the scenarios we consider. However, the United States gains substantially more from engaging in a trade war with China than with Canada. |
| Keywords: | Trade War; Tariffs; Applied General Equilibrium; International Trade |
| JEL: | F11 F13 F14 F17 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcm:deptwp:2025-01 |
| By: | Zongwu Cai (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA); Jinyan Li (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA) |
| Abstract: | The escalating trade war between China and the United States, initiated in 2018, has significantly impacted the trade pattern of these two nations. This event can be treated as an intervention which has led to a series of retaliatory actions, resulting in substantial economic and trade frictions between the two largest economies. This paper aims to analyze the economic impacts of the trade war effects using advanced econometric techniques. Our empirical study employs panel data analysis combined with a factor model, inspired by the methodologies of Hsiao, Ching and Wan (2012) and Bai, Li and Ouyang (2014), to construct trade patterns for both China and the US. By using annual trade data from multiple countries as a control group, we construct counterfactual results for China's and the US's imports, exports, and trade balance, respectively. Under a non-stationary setting, the counterfactual results indicate a significant decline in China's exports and a notable reduction in its trade surplus with the US post-2018. Meanwhile, US imports from China decreased, aligning with the trade war's goal of reducing the trade deficit, while US exports to China unexpectedly increased, possibly influenced by the Phase One trade agreement. Furthermore, our method, compared to other approaches, demonstrates superior accuracy and reliability in illustrating the effects of the trade war. |
| Keywords: | Causal inference; Counterfactual estimation; Trade balance; Trade friction; Trade war effects. |
| JEL: | C10 F51 F13 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:202419 |
| By: | Malkún Montoya, Samuel (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | In just over ten years trade between Colombia and Venezuela vanished due to diplomatic tensions between both nations and the economic crisis in Venezuela. This study examines the impact of political disruptions, particularly stemming from Colombia's Defense Cooperation Agreement with the United States in 2009, on Colombian exports to Venezuela. Employing a gravity model incorporating time-varying and country-pair fixed effects, this research forecasts trade flows and compares them to the observed export data. While predicted exports mirror the observed data during most of the series, since 2010 both trends have deviated significantly. Between 2010 and 2015 losses amounted to $6bn, as only 65% of predicted trade took place. In contrast, Colombian exports to other partners in the region maintained an upward trajectory. |
| Keywords: | economic diplomacy; trade |
| JEL: | F17 F51 |
| Date: | 2025–01–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021297 |
| By: | Caraballo Candela, David Santiago (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of the Colombia-Korea Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on trade flows following its entry to force, sanctioned by the Colombian government in 2016. Employing a structural gravity model of trade and synthetic control methods, it estimates trade creation and trade diversion effects at both aggregate and sectoral levels. Results suggest that, while the FTA did not significantly impact overall trade flows, Colombia experienced a notable trade creation effect, with a 54% increase in exports, particularly in agricultural products and heavy metals. In contrast, Korea saw a 28% decline in its trade volume, primarily due to reduced sales of automotive, and industrial and electronic machinery. Evidence also points to null trade diversion effects among the FTA members, which is consistent with expectations given the low economic interdependence between the two countries, as trade flows with their usual regional partners have been sustained. |
| Keywords: | trade flow; FTA; gravity model; synthetic counterfactual |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2025–01–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021296 |
| By: | Sanjeev Vasudevan (Assistant Professor, Madras School of Economics, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India, 600025); Suresh Babu Manalaya (Professor and Director, Madras Institute of Department Studies, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India, 600020.) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether trade continuity is a determinant of global production sharing and trade in intermediate goods. We argue that the literature on global production sharing overlooks the dependent and hierarchical nature of trade relations. Huge switching costs faced by countries warrant the continuity of trade relations. With an unbalanced panel dataset of finely disaggregated bilateral exports of 29 emerging economies for 2004-17, we estimate an augmented gravity model using the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood method. We show that trade continuity has a significantly positive impact on global production sharing. We also show that the nature of trade continuity in global production sharing is process-specific and may vary between exports of parts and components and final assembly. |
| Keywords: | Global Production Sharing, Parts And Components, Intermediate Goods, Trade Continuity, Gravity Model, Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood, Emerging Economies |
| JEL: | F10 F14 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mad:wpaper:2025-275 |
| By: | Ibrahim Nana (World Bank Group); Rasmané Ouedraogo (International Monetary Fund (IMF)); Sapwende Jules Tapsoba (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International) |
| Abstract: | The ongoing global trend is marked by increasing geopolitical fragmentation, leading to policy differences, longer supply chains, and heightened uncertainty. Recent events such as the war between Russia and Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East, and trade disputes between the United States and China demonstrate this global uncertainty. The World Uncertainty Index has steadily increased since the 1990s and peaked in 2020 due to factors like US-China trade tensions, Brexit, and the coronavirus pandemic. |
| Keywords: | Trade, International trade, Geopolitics, supply chains |
| Date: | 2024–11–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04809647 |
| By: | David S. Jacks; Christopher M. Meissner; Nikolaus Wolf |
| Abstract: | For all its importance, there still is no comprehensive quantitative assessment of the Suez Canal’s opening in 1869. We find that it led to a 72% relative increase in bilateral exports for affected country pairs and a likely permanent increase in world trade. With respect to the composition of trade, Suez was associated with large changes in export shares but only for a handful of goods categories. With respect to mechanisms, the relative cost of using steamships on Suez-affected routes fell dramatically and immediately after 1869, suggesting a vital role for the canal in the global diffusion of steam technology. |
| JEL: | F1 N7 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33250 |
| By: | YAMASHITA Kazuhito |
| Abstract: | Although there are claims that population growth will cause a food crisis in 2050, the inflaton-adjusted real price of world grains has been declining for more than a century. This is because the increase in grain production has outpaced population growth. However, grain prices do spike in the short term. People in developing countries, who spend more than half of their income on food consumption, will starve if they cannot afford to buy grain when prices triple. Grain exporting countries such as the U.S., Canada, and Australia export more than half of their production and do not restrict exports. In contrast, in developing countries, when international prices soar, grain flows out of the country for profit and domestic prices rise, causing starvation. Export restrictions in developing countries are intended to prevent such a situation. Demanding that developing countries not impose export restrictions despite starvation in the country is clearly unacceptable. Unlike wheat and soybeans, which are exported by the U.S. and other developed countries, rice is largely exported by developing countries such as India, Thailand, and Vietnam, which export only a marginal portion of their production and tend to employ export restrictions. Global rice markets are extremely unstable. If Japan abolishes its rice acreage reduction and exports larger amounts of rice, it could make a significant contribution to global food security. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rpdpjp:25004 |
| By: | Vincent Chatellier (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | World trade in poultry meat (all species, including preparations and cured meats), excluding intra-European Union (EU) trade, reached 22.3 million tce in 2022, worth 31.6 billion euros, the highest level ever. This increase in trade, dominated by exports from Brazil, the United States, the EU and Thailand, is taking place against a backdrop in which global consumption of poultry meat has doubled since 2000. The main importers are China, Japan, the UK and the EU. The EU's poultry meat trade balance remains positive (2.3 billion euros in 2023), thanks to sustained exports to the UK market and despite increased imports from Ukraine. Within the EU, Poland stands out with a four-fold increase in production and a rapid rise in exports in two decades. In France, the sector's economic trajectory is unfavorable, with imports accounting for 44 % of domestic consumption. Using three databases (BACI, COMEXT and French customs), this article summarizes the evolution of world, European and French trade in poultry meat. |
| Abstract: | Le commerce mondial de viande de volailles (toutes espèces confondues, préparations et viandes saumurées incluses), mesuré hors échanges intra-Union européenne (UE), s'est élevé à 22, 3 millions de tec en 2022 pour un montant de 31, 6 milliards d'euros, le plus haut niveau jamais atteint. La hausse de ces échanges, dominés à l'export par le Brésil, les États-Unis, l'UE et la Thaïlande, intervient dans un contexte où la consommation mondiale de viandes de volailles a doublé depuis 2000. Les principaux importateurs sont la Chine, le Japon, le Royaume-Uni et l'UE. La balance commerciale de l'UE en viande de volailles demeure toujours positive (2, 3 milliards d'euros en 2023) grâce aux exportations soutenues vers le marché britannique et en dépit d'importations accentuées en provenance de l'Ukraine. Au sein de l'UE, la Pologne se distingue avec un quadruplement de sa production et un essor rapide de ses exportations en deux décennies. En France, la trajectoire économique de cette filière est défavorable avec des importations qui représentent 44 % de la consommation intérieure. En valorisant trois bases de données (BACI, COMEXT et douanes françaises), cet article propose une synthèse sur l'évolution du commerce mondial, européen et français de viande de volailles. |
| Keywords: | Trade, Competitiveness, Exports, Imports, Poultry, Commerce, Compétitivité, Exportations, Importations, Volailles |
| Date: | 2024–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04829482 |
| By: | Vincent Chatellier (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | World trade in animal products, excluding trade between member states of the European Union (EU), has risen sharply over the past two decades to reach 239 billion euros in 2022 (the highest level ever), equivalent to 17% of total agricultural and agri-food trade. With a trade balance of 49.8 billion euros in 2023, the EU is the world's biggest surplus zone for animal products, ahead of Brazil, New Zealand and Australia. Despite the proliferation of free-trade agreements and the fears they inevitably arouse, this trade balance has improved significantly, thanks above all to dairy products and pork. While a potential future agreement between the EU and Mercosur countries raises legitimate concerns, especially for beef, several other agreements already signed (Canada, South Korea, Japan, etc.) have not led to a significant increase in European imports of animal products. |
| Abstract: | Les échanges mondiaux de produits animaux, hors commerce entre les États membres de l'Union européenne (UE), ont fortement progressé au fil des deux dernières décennies pour atteindre 239 milliards d'euros en 2022 (le plus haut niveau jamais atteint), soit l'équivalent de 17 % du total des échanges agricoles et agroalimentaires. Avec une balance commerciale de 49, 8 milliards d'euros en 2023, l'UE est la zone la plus excédentaire en produits animaux, devant le Brésil, la Nouvelle-Zélande et l'Australie. En dépit de la multiplication des accords de libre-échange et des craintes que ceux-ci ne manquent pas de susciter, cette balance commerciale s'est nettement améliorée grâce surtout aux produits laitiers et à la viande porcine. Si un potentiel futur accord entre l'UE et les pays du Mercosur soulève de légitimes inquiétudes, surtout en viande bovine, plusieurs autres accords déjà signés (Canada, Corée du Sud, Japon, etc.) n'ont pas entraîné une hausse significative des importations européennes de produits animaux. |
| Keywords: | Trade, Exports, Imports, Competitiveness, Animal production, European Union, Echanges commerciaux, Exportations, Importations, Compétitivité, Productions animales, Union européenne |
| Date: | 2024–12–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04829718 |
| By: | Kris James Mitchener; Kirsten Wandschneider |
| Abstract: | The Great Depression is the canonical case of a widespread currency war, with more than 70 countries devaluing their currencies relative to gold between 1929 and 1936. What were the currency war’s effects on trade flows? We use newly-compiled, highfrequency bilateral trade data and gravity models that account for when and whether trade partners had devalued to identify the effects of the currency war on global trade. Our empirical estimates show that a country’s trade was reduced by more than 21% following devaluation. This negative and statistically significant decline in trade suggests that the currency war destroyed the trade-enhancing benefits of the global monetary standard, ending regime coordination and increasing trade costs. |
| Keywords: | currency war, monetary regimes, gold standard, competitive devaluations, “beggar thy neighbour”, gravity model |
| JEL: | F14 F33 F42 N10 N70 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11589 |
| By: | Vincent Chatellier (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | World trade (excluding intra-EU-27 trade) in poultry meat amounted to 23.9 billion euros in 2021. On the export side, three quarters of this amount were accounted for by just four players: Brazil (29.5%), the USA (18.2%), the EU-27 (14.2%) and Thailand (12.7%). While these countries already occupied a central position in 2000 (with 79% of total exports), the weight of Brazil has increased significantly, unlike that of the USA and the EU-27. On the import side, the level of concentration is less clear-cut, with 41% of global flows in 2021 coming from the top four players, namely China (12.6%), Japan (12.5%), the UK (10.2%) and the EU-27 (5.6%). In 2022, the EU-27 trade balance in poultry meat reached 2.12 billion euros. EU-27 exports went mainly to the UK (58.6% of the total in 2022), followed by Switzerland (4.7%), Ghana (3.7%) and Saudi Arabia (3.7%). Imports into the EU-27 came mainly, in 2022, from Brazil (35.1%), Thailand (26.7%) and Ukraine (10.7%), the latter gaining market share in recent years. Within the EU-27, the two Member States with the largest poultry meat surpluses in 2022 were Poland (4.4 billion euros) and the Netherlands (1.3 billion euros). France, which has seen its trade balance deteriorate sharply over the last two decades, has become the EU-27 member state with the biggest deficit (-1.14 billion euros in 2022, compared with +1.15 billion euros in 2000). Imports now cover a large share of domestic consumption (42% of volumes in 2022). By mobilizing three complementary customs databases (BACI, COMEXT and French Customs), over a long period (since 2000), the aim here is to highlight the main trends in the poultry meat trade (in terms of both value and volume), at different geographical scales (world, EU-27 and France). |
| Abstract: | Le commerce mondial (hors échanges intra-Union européenne -UE-27-) de viande de volailles s'est élevé à 23, 9 milliards d'euros en 2021. A l'export, les trois quarts de ce montant étaient le fait de seulement quatre acteurs : le Brésil (29, 5%), les Etats-Unis (18, 2%), l'UE-27 (14, 2%) et la Thaïlande (12, 7%). Si ces pays occupaient déjà une place centrale dès 2000 (avec 79% du total des exportations), le poids du Brésil a nettement augmenté contrairement à celui des Etats-Unis et de l'UE-27. A l'import, le niveau de concentration est moins net, 41% des flux mondiaux de 2021 résultant des quatre premiers acteurs, à savoir la Chine (12, 6%), le Japon (12, 5%), le Royaume-Uni (10, 2%) et l'UE-27 (5, 6%). En 2022, le solde commercial de l'UE-27 en viande de volailles atteignait 2, 12 milliards d'euros. Les exportations de l'UE-27 étaient surtout orientées vers le Royaume-Uni (58, 6% du total en 2022), les pays qui arrivaient ensuite étant la Suisse (4, 7%), le Ghana (3, 7%) et l'Arabie Saoudite (3, 7%). De leur côté, les importations de l'UE-27 résultaient, en 2022, pour l'essentiel du Brésil (35, 1%), de la Thaïlande (26, 7%) et de l'Ukraine (10, 7%), ce dernier pays gagnant des parts de marché depuis quelques années. Au sein de l'UE-27, les deux Etats membres les plus excédentaires en viande de volailles étaient, en 2022, la Pologne (4, 4 milliards d'euros) et les Pays-Bas (1, 3 milliard d'euros). La France, qui a enregistré une forte dégradation de sa balance commerciale au fil des deux dernières décennies, est devenue l'Etat membre de l'UE-27 le plus déficitaire (avec -1, 14 milliard d'euros en 2022 contre +1, 15 milliard d'euros en 2000). Les importations couvrent désormais une large part de la consommation intérieure (42% des volumes en 2022). En mobilisant trois bases de données complémentaires issues des douanées (BACI, COMEXT et les Douanes françaises), sur une période longue (depuis 2000), l'objectif poursuivi ici est de mettre en évidence les principales tendances à l'oeuvre dans le commerce de viande de volailles (tant en valeur qu'en volume), ce à différentes échelles géographiques (monde, UE-27 et France). |
| Keywords: | Poultry, Trade, Competitiveness, Volailles, Commerce, Echanges, Compétitivité |
| Date: | 2024–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04835283 |
| By: | Policarpo Gomes Caomique (UFSM - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria = Federal University of Santa Maria [Santa Maria, RS, Brazil]); Fatimata Belem (United Nations); Jules Sampawende (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines United States-African economic relations, focusing on trade and investment. It reviews historical and contemporary interactions, arguing that the engagement of the United States in Africa has largely been constrained by geopolitical factors, resulting in trade and investment levels that fall short of expectations. To enhance these connections, American and African policymakers need to reevaluate strategies, including developing policy frameworks to make Africa more attractive for investment and trade, leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), aligning with existing initiatives, and mobilizing resources from the African diaspora in the United States. |
| Keywords: | Trade, Investment, United States, Africa |
| Date: | 2024–11–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04817255 |
| By: | Di Mauro, Filippo; Matani, Marco; Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P. |
| Abstract: | Based on the sufficient statistics approach developed by Huang and Ottaviano (2024), we show how the state of technology of European industries relative to the rest of the world can be empirically assessed in a way that is simple in terms of computation, parsimonious in terms of data requirements, but still comprehensive in terms of information. The lack of systematic cross-industry correlation between export specialization and technological advantage suggests that standard measu-res of revealed comparative advantage only imperfectly capture a country's tech-nological prowess due to the concurrent influences of factor prices, market size, markups, firm selection and market share reallocation. |
| Keywords: | comparative advantage, European cross-country data, firm heterogeneity, international trade, monopolistic competition, multi-product firms, productivity |
| JEL: | B17 C19 C51 C80 D21 D43 F02 F12 F14 F61 L13 L25 O49 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhcom:308809 |
| By: | NAKATOMI Michitaka |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the status of security exceptions in the WTO, their actual implementation and interpretation, and desired responses for the international trade system. In order to maintain the balance between security exceptions and free trade, it is essential to restore the WTO's legislative function, strengthen its monitoring and surveillance function, and quickly restore its dispute settlement function. The expansion of security exception measures is largely due to the sluggish legislative function of the WTO, and it is important to realize the results in such areas as the JSI (Joint statement initiative), as well as to specify negotiation issues such as trade remedy measures. Moreover, the dialogue on matters of specific trade concern (STC) at WTO committees based on the TBT Agreement and other agreements has been effective and has also been helpful in resolving disputes, and is expected to be utilized for security exceptions. The establishment of new National Security Committee is also an issue for consideration. With regard to the restoration of the dispute resolution function, in order to prevent the abuse of the security exception and the acceleration of its black-boxing, it is essential to take into account its political nature and the U.S. position on the issue of justiciability, and it may be necessary to consider introducing a compensation mechanism on the grounds of non-violation. In disputes related to security exceptions, there is currently a strong possibility that the losing party will file an appeal into the void, which will further hollow out the dispute settlement function of the WTO. It is necessary to consider the option of introducing a binding, one stage dispute settlement system into the WTO dispute settlement to avoid this. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:polidp:24003 |
| By: | Otaviano Canuto; Mahmoud Arbouch; Pepe Zhang; Abdelaaziz Ait Ali |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have reignited the debate on efficiency versus resilience in international trade and global value chains (GVCs). This policy brief [a] (i) explains the contrasting perspectives of the private sector (primarily seeking efficiency) and the public sector (aiming for resilience); (ii) demonstrates that GVCs are still flourishing, despite some mounting signals of a geo-fragmentation leading to greater reallocation of the GVCs; and (iii) provides recommendations to help the G20 navigate the balancing act between efficiency and resilience considerations. Domestic policy design in the G20 countries and international coordination among these countries is essential. |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pbnn_32 |
| By: | Pawel Krolikowski; Andrew H. McCallum |
| Abstract: | We study uniform tariffs in a general equilibrium dynamic model with search frictions between heterogeneous exporting producers and importing retailers. We analytically characterize unilateral import tariffs that maximize domestic welfare. Search frictions lower these tariffs because of market thickness effects, which reinforce aggregate production nonconvexities. A calibration using 2016 U.S. and Chinese data suggests that optimal U.S. unilateral and Nash equilibrium tariffs with baseline search frictions are 10 ppt. below those in a model with reduced search frictions. Changes in welfare in response to changes in tariffs are smaller in the model with baseline search frictions than in the model with reduced frictions. In the Nash equilibrium with baseline search frictions, U.S. (Chinese) tariffs are 17 (8) ppt. higher and welfare is 0.1 (0.9) percent lower relative to 2016 tariff levels. |
| Keywords: | optimal tariffs; trade policy; efficiency; search; welfare; social planner |
| JEL: | C78 D62 D83 F12 F13 |
| Date: | 2025–01–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:99459 |
| By: | Robin Sogalla; Joschka Wanner; Yuta Watabe |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of firm heterogeneity in environmentally extended new trade models, contrasting Eaton-Kortum and Melitz models to Armington and Krugman models. We show that when emissions per sales are constant across firms -- a standard assumption in the literature -- all four models predict identical emission responses. However, when emissions per quantity are constant across firms, this equivalence breaks. We propose a generalized framework that nests both assumptions. Calibrating the model with multiple industries and estimating the key elasticity between emission intensity and productivity using German firm-level data, we find that firm heterogeneity considerably raises emissions from trade liberalization. |
| Keywords: | international trade, carbon emissions, firm heterogeneity, quantitative modeling |
| JEL: | F11 F12 F18 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11596 |
| By: | Mohamed Reda Ararsa (FSJES Souissi RABAT - Faculté des Sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales Souissi RABAT); ELOUARDIRHI Saad (FSJES Souissi RABAT - Faculté des Sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales Souissi RABAT) |
| Abstract: | BREXIT is a significant event in the history of the United Kingdom, whether economically or geopolitically since it has had major repercussions that have disrupted not only economic growth but also the country's trade with its partners. The objective of this paper is to analyze these repercussions on the United Kingdom's exports. To do this, we took a sample of data from 19 countries that have trade links with the United Kingdom. The study period spans from 2013 to 2023. The method we chose to estimate our model is that of generalized moments (MMG), because it allows us to identify the reverse causal relationships between the variables. The results showed that among the variables chosen for our model, the GBP exchange rate variable, the BREXIT variable and the partner's GDP variable had a significant effect on the United Kingdom's exports. |
| Abstract: | El BREXIT es un acontecimiento importante en la historia del Reino Unido, tanto en el plano económico como geopolítico, El Acuerdo tuvo importantes repercusiones que afectaron no sólo al crecimiento económico sino también a los intercambios comerciales de ese país con sus socios. El objetivo de este documento es analizar estas repercusiones sobre las exportaciones del Reino Unido. Para ello, se tomó una muestra de datos de 19 países con vínculos comerciales con el Reino Unido. El período de estudio se extiende a lo largo de un Período comprendido entre 2013 y 2023. El método que hemos elegido para estimar nuestro modelo es el de los momentos generalizados (MMG), ya que permite desvelar las relaciones de causalidad inversas entre las variables. Los resultados han permitido que entre las variables elegidas para nuestro modelo, la variable tipo de cambio del GBP, la variable BREXIT y la variable PIB del socio hayan tenido un efecto significativo en las exportaciones del Reino Unido. |
| Abstract: | Le BREXIT constitue un événement marquant dans l'histoire du Royaume Uni que ça soit sur le plan économique ou géopolitique, puisqu'il a eu des répercussions majeures qui ont bouleversé non seulement sur la croissance économique mais aussi sur les échanges commerciaux de ce pays avec ses partenaires. L'objectif de ce papier est d'analyser ces répercussions sur les exportations du Royaume Uni. Pour ce faire nous avons pris un échantillon de données de 19 pays ayant des liens commerciaux avec le Royaume uni. La période de l'étude s'étale sur une période allant de 2013 à 2023. La méthode que nous avons choisie pour estimer notre modèle est celle des moments généralisés (MMG), car il permet de dégager les relations de causalité inverses entre les variables. Les résultats ont abouti à ce que parmi les variables choisis pour notre modèle, la variable taux de change du GBP, la variable BREXIT et la variable PIB du partenaire ayant eu un effet significatif sur les exportations du Royaume Uni. |
| Keywords: | BREXIT, Generalized Method of Moments, UK Exports, Free Trade |
| Date: | 2024–10–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04788288 |
| By: | Larabi Jaïdi; Bruce Byiers; Saloi El Yamani |
| Abstract: | As the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) enters its fifth year, the rules of origin for trade in goods are still being finalised, but the institutional architecture is nearly complete with increased capacity, technical committees and new supporting instruments. Despite this progress in AfCFTA ‘policy supply’, meaningful trade under the AfCFTA is still to begin. For this to happen, there must be ‘policy demand’ from the private sector to use the agreement’s range of protocols in shaping their investment and trade decisions and relations. Private sector engagement has so far varied across member states, with some demonstrating robust integration of business feedback while others lag in private sector consultation and involvement. Recommendations focus on enhancing private sector engagement and thus the use and impact of the AfCFTA through: - Increased awareness and practical application of AfCFTA protocols. - Sector-specific support aligned with AfCFTA’s goals. - Strengthening the roles of AU, RECs and the AfCFTA secretariat in national strategy alignment. - Promoting regional value chains with strategic financing and partnerships. - Improving the investment climate to facilitate cross-border trade and investment. Ultimately, AfCFTA’s success depends on robust implementation, dynamic private sector involvement and tailored strategies to meet diverse economic needs across Africa. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pbnn_40 |
| By: | Massimiliano Coda Zabetta (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Ernest Miguelez (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Francesco Lissoni (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Sarah Hegarty |
| Abstract: | AbstractBuilding upon the upper echelons theory of organizations as applied to internationalization strategies, we investigate the impact of foreign-origin top management team (TMT) members on their companies' location choice. We propose that a manager-from-target effect may exist, by which a manager's knowledge of their country of origin increases the likelihood of choosing that country as a target. We expect it to be stronger for acquisitions than for greenfield investments, the inputs of foreign-origin managers being more relevant in the first case. Based on a large sample of foreign direct investment from 2013 to 2019, and using name analysis to identify TMT members' origins, we find that the effect is present in both establishment modes but larger and more robust for acquisitions. It is also larger in companies with less diverse TMTs, for which targeting one manager's country of origin instead of others' may be less likely to cause conflict. Future research should explore whether investments in locations suggested by managers from the target country outperform others. If this is the case, it implies that recruiting foreign-origin top managers can improve a company's internationalization strategy via better location choices. |
| Keywords: | Foreign direct investment, Location choice, International migration |
| Date: | 2024–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04783226 |
| By: | Marta F. Arroyabe (University of Sussex); Christoph Grimpe (Copenhagen Business School); Katrin Hussinger (DEM, Université du Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether strengthened legal protection of trade secrets increases the likelihood of a firm being acquired. Stronger protection can make a firm more attractive for acquisition due to better safeguarding of trade secrets, but it may also increase information asymmetries that discourage potential acquirers. Using the staggered implementation of the Uniform Trade Secrets Act (UTSA) in the U.S., we show that stronger trade secret protection increases the likelihood of being acquired, but also changes firms’ acquisition strategies more broadly depending on the distance between acquirer and target. Compared to domestic acquirers, foreign acquirers are only half as likely to make an acquisition, and they prefer to acquire minority rather than majority stakes. Both domestic and foreign acquirers are more likely to pursue stepwise acquisitions of a target as protection increases, consistent with a real options rationale. Further investigation suggests that, while increased trade secret protection increases information asymmetries for all acquirers, foreign acquirers as well as domestic acquirers located further away from a target are disproportionately affected. |
| Keywords: | trade secret protection, firm acquisitions, ownership stakes, distance, Uniform Trade Secrets Act (UTSA). |
| JEL: | G34 O34 L20 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luc:wpaper:25-05 |
| By: | Mustafizur Rahman |
| Abstract: | The 13th Ministerial Conference of the WTO (WTO-MC13) in Abu Dhabi, UAE (February 26–March 1, 2024) was, for understandable reasons, of heightened interest and importance to Bangladesh as a Graduating Least Developed Country (GLDC). |
| Keywords: | WTO, Trade, MC-13, Least Developed Country, LDCs, Bangladesh |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:pbrief:63 |
| By: | Silke Anger (Institute for Employment Research); Jacopo Bassetto (University of Milan); Malte Sandner (Nuremberg Institute for Technology) |
| Abstract: | While Western countries worry about labor shortages, their institutional barriers to skill transferability prevent immigrants from fully utilizing foreign qualifications. Combining administrative and survey data in a difference-in-differences design, we show that a German reform, which lifted these barriers for non-EU immigrants, led to a 15 percent increase in the share of immigrants with a recognized foreign qualification. Consequently, non-EU immigrants’ employment and wages in licensed occupations (e.g., doctors) increased respectively by 18.6 and 4 percent, narrowing the gaps with EU immigrants. Despite the inflow of non-EU immigrants in these occupations, we find no evidence of crowding out or downward wage pressure for natives. |
| Keywords: | Skill Transferability, Occupational Recognition, Immigrant Integration |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J62 F2 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2427 |
| By: | YAMASHITA Kazuhito |
| Abstract: | In grain exporting countries like the U.S. and the EU, there are no domestic grain shortages. If rice acreage reduction is abolished in Japan, exports will be possible. Even if domestic consumption increases or production decreases, the turmoil resulting from rice shortages in 2024 could easily be avoided by adjusting (reducing) export volumes. Abolishing the rice acreage reduction policy would increase the supply of rice and lower the price. Small part-time farmers with high costs could lease their farmland to larger full-time farmers. Limiting direct payments from the government to full-time farmers would reduce the burden of renting land and promote the liquidation of farmland. With increasing numbers of larger-scale, full-time farmers, costs would decline, and profits would increase, and rent paid to former small-scale farmers would also increase. The rice acreage policy has made breeding to increase yield a taboo subject for researchers at the national and prefectural levels. Increasing the yield of Japanese rice to the level of California rice by abolishing the policy would increase the supply of rice and significantly reduce costs. A decline in prices resulting from higher yields and larger rice production would improve international competitiveness and increase rice exports. Even in the event of a food crisis if imports are disrupted, it would be possible to supply the nation with sufficient supplies. Exports in peacetime would also serve as a free stockpile. As structural reform of agriculture progresses and the earnings increase, the rents received by landowners who provide farmland to farmers would also increase. Structural reform is also necessary for rural development. China, a major market for Japanese rice, uses plant quarantine (SPS) measures to restrict rice imports from Japan. In order to expand exports of all Japanese agricultural products, active negotiations on agricultural trade must be conducted to prevent SPS measures from being utilized as shadow import restrictions in addition to traditional import restriction measures such as tariffs. We also use theoretical and practical information to explain the fallacies in the criticisms against ending rice acreage reductions and direct payments to expand rice exports and ensure food security. Furthermore, it is shown that the “individual income compensation†program implemented by the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) in the past was an obstacle to structural reform and preserved the regressive nature of the system. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rpdpjp:25003 |
| By: | Clayton, Christopher; Maggiori, Matteo (Stanford University); Schreger, Jesse |
| Abstract: | Great powers are increasingly using their economic and financial strength for geopolitical aims. This rise of "geoeconomics" has the potential to reshape the international trade and financial system. This paper examines the role of domestic political economy forces in determining a government’s ability to project geoeconomic power abroad. We also discuss the role that persuading or coercing foreign governments plays in projecting geoeconomic power around the world. |
| Date: | 2025–01–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:j8p3m |
| By: | Ahmet Duhan Yassa; Kamil Yýlmaz |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the propagation of foreign trade-related shocks through domestic supply chain networks. By combining firm-level customs data with domestic firm-to-firm transaction data, we demonstrate that importer and exporter firms occupy a central position within Türkiye’s domestic supply chain network. These firms interact with numerous other firms and account for a significant share of total domestic trade, facilitating the transmission of external shocks through the supply chain. Our empirical analysis reveals that Turkish firms’ indirect exposure to exchange rate fluctuations, imported input price changes, and foreign demand shocks—via their suppliers or customers—is at least as significant as their direct exposure in explaining variations in gross profitability. Given the close relationship between gross profitability and value added, our results suggest that foreign trade-related shocks can significantly impact gross domestic product (GDP), both directly and indirectly. |
| Keywords: | Production network, Supply chains, Foreign trade, GDP volatility, Centrality |
| JEL: | B17 D22 D24 L14 L61 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2503 |
| By: | Mr. Philip Barrett; Brandon Tan |
| Abstract: | We use a shift-share approach to estimate the impact of inward immigration on local inflation in the United States. We find that a higher rate of immigration reduces inflation, lowering it by about 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points following a doubling of immigration. Higher immigration flows also lower local goods inflation, increase local housing and utilities inflation, and have no statistically significant impact on inflation in other services. Effects are approximately two and three time larger for working age and low-education immigrants. We do not detect a statistically significant impact of more educated immigrants on overall inflation, but they do increase local housing inflation. Our results can be jointly rationalized by a simple general equilibrium model where the substitutability of capital and labor varies across industries but capital is fixed in the short run. |
| Keywords: | Immigration; inflation |
| Date: | 2025–01–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/005 |
| By: | Mirjam Bachli (HEC University of Lausanne); Albrecht Glitz (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) |
| Abstract: | Immigration may affect income inequality not only by changing factor prices but also by inducing policy makers to adjust the prevailing income tax system. We assess the relative importance of these economic and political channels using administrative data from Switzerland where local authorities have a high degree of tax autonomy. We show that immigrant inflows not only raise gross earnings inequality but also reduce the progressivity of local income taxes, further increasing after-tax inequality. Our estimates suggest that 10 percent of the impact of immigration on the net interquartile and interdecile earnings gaps can be attributed to the political channel. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Income Taxes, Earnings Inequality |
| JEL: | H23 H24 H71 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2435 |
| By: | TODO Yasuyuki |
| Abstract: | With the increase in geopolitical risks globally, there is an increasing demand for building supply chains that account for economic security. In response, many countries have implemented large-scale industrial policies aimed at fostering domestic industries. This shift requires a transformation in policy recommendations and practices based on international economics, which were previously centered on free trade and competition, toward approaches that address these new realities. This paper discusses appropriate policies and industrial strategies for building resilient supply chains in light of these new economic security concerns, drawing on recent theoretical and empirical research on the resilience of supply chains and the effectiveness of industrial policy. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rpdpjp:25001 |
| By: | Zhesheng Qiu; Yicheng Wang; Le Xu; Francesco Zanetti |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the design of monetary policy in small open economies with domestic and cross-border production networks and nominal rigidities. The monetary policy that closes the domestic output gap is nearly optimal and is implemented by stabilizing the aggregate inflation index those weights sectoral inflation according to the sector’s roles as a supplier of inputs and a net exporter of products within the international production networks. To close the output gap, monetary policy should assign large weights to inflation in sectors with small direct or indirect (i.e., via the downstream sectors) import shares and failing to account for the cross-border production networks overemphasizes inflation in sectors that export intensively directly and indirectly (i.e., via the downstream sectors). We validate our theoretical results using the World Input-Output Database and show that the monetary policy that closes the output gap outperforms alternative policies that abstract from the openness of the economy or the input-output linkages. |
| Keywords: | production networks, small open economy, monetary policy |
| JEL: | C67 E52 F41 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-03 |
| By: | Pascal Ricordel (EDEHN - Equipe d'Economie Le Havre Normandie - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université) |
| Abstract: | A common statement found in regional policy reports is that regional growth is an "export or die" issue. However, the succession of disruptions in the international supply chain has highlighted the crucial roles of domestic activities, local markets and short supply chains, turning the environmental and resilience challenge present in growth policy into a "domestic or die" issue. Recent regional growth theories have seriously questioned export activity as the only way in which to drive regional growth and have highlighted the crucial role of the domestic sector. However, no empirical study has assessed the roles of the domestic and export sectors in growth during this troubled economic period, despite the usefulness of this information for nonbiased policy decisions. Using a spatial endogenous regional growth model as a framework, we investigate the role of the domestic sector during the 1999–2014 period for 263 European Union (EU) Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) regions. The results stress the importance of domestic productivity for regional growth during this period, which is characterized by three economic shocks, thereby elucidating the importance of domestic productivity for competitiveness and resilience issues. |
| Keywords: | domestic export sectors economic base theory endogenous growth model regional Dutch disease regional growth regional resilience spatial model, domestic export sectors, economic base theory, endogenous growth model, regional Dutch disease, regional growth, regional resilience, spatial model |
| Date: | 2024–02–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04841821 |
| By: | Nizar Messari |
| Abstract: | The G20 Summit held in November 2024 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, under the Brazilian G20 presidency, showed what decentering from the Western agenda and Western domination of world politics could mean. The summit’s main achievement was the constitution of an Alliance against Hunger and Poverty, with a membership of, and funds mobilized from, not only all G20 members, but also from more than 60 other countries. In fact, what the West showed was discomfort at not having its agenda, its problems, and its challenges dominating the agenda of a meeting of world leaders. Brazilian diplomacy showed that when the South is in command, another agenda, dealing with the problems and the challenges of other members of international society, can dominate summits such as the G20. In sum, the G20 had a different focus and a different agenda to other summits, reflecting a different worldview, and potentially signaling a tectonic change in world politics. This is likely one of the main successes of President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva in his third term as president. Indeed, when Mr. Lula da Silva was elected president of Brazil in 2022 for a third (but non- consecutive) mandate, one of the objectives he and his coalition had was to restore the image of Brazil on the world stage, after that image was significantly undermined under former President Bolsonaro. Brazil had become isolated from its traditional allies, both in South America and globally: in the Western Hemisphere, former President Bolsonaro snubbed Mercosur, the main trade partnership in the Southern hemisphere, and banned the Venezuelan President from Brazil. He was also on cold terms with U.S. President, Joe Biden, and his administration. In Europe, the EU-Mercosur trade agreement was not well received by the European Parliament, in a large measure because of Bolsonaro’s policies in the Amazon forest. Strange sparring matches between Bolsonaro and French President Emmanuel Macron, and icy relations with then German Chancellor Angela Merkel, added unnecessary strains to the tense relationships between Brazil and its main European partners. For all these reasons, one of Lula’s first priorities when he was elected was to restore that international image. In this policy paper, I assess the first two years of President Lula in power. An intrinsic part of the assessment has to do with the evolution of the image of Brazil internationally. Brazil hosting of the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro in November 2024 symbolizes the renewed prestige that Brazil enjoys internationally, while also underlining the fluidity of that prestige. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pp_20-24 |
| By: | Alexander Bick |
| Abstract: | The number of recent immigrants to the U.S. varies greatly among data sources. What might an undercount of this population mean for U.S. productivity growth? |
| Keywords: | immigration; productivity growth |
| Date: | 2025–01–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:99415 |
| By: | Ali Bouzerouata (FSJESJ - faculté des sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales d'El Jadida); Younesse El Menyari (aculté des Sciences Juridiques Economiques et Sociales FSJES –Ain -Chock Université Hassan II, Casablanca, Maroc) |
| Abstract: | The present article investigates the impact of artificial intelligence on Moroccan's manufacturing exports. For this purpose, artificial intelligence was materialized by neural machine translation. The methodological approach was based on the gravity model namely by adopting estimation of the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood estimator on a panel data composed of 20 major trading partners of Morocco for the period between 2011and 2023. The results highlight that Moroccan manufacturing exports are positively and significantly affected by neural machine translation and GDP partners, however distance all other things being equal has negative impact on Moroccan manufacturing exports. |
| Abstract: | Le présent article étudie l'impact de l'intelligence artificielle sur les exportations manufacturières marocaines. À cet effet, l'intelligence artificielle a été matérialisée par la traduction automatique neuronale. L'approche méthodologique a été basée sur le modèle de gravité notamment en adoptant l'estimation de l'estimateur de Poisson Pseudo-Maximum de Vraisemblance sur des données de panel composées de 20 partenaires commerciaux majeurs du Maroc pour la période allant de 2011 à 2023. Les résultats soulignent que les exportations manufacturières marocaines sont positivement et significativement affectées par la traduction automatique neuronale et le PIB des pays partenaires, cependant la distance toutes choses égales par ailleurs a un impact négatif sur les exportations manufacturières marocaines. |
| Keywords: | Artificial intelligence, neural machine translation, Gravity model, manufacturing exports, Intelligence artificielle traduction automatique neuronale modèle de gravité exportations manufacturières. JEL Classification : F76 Type du papier : Recherche empirique Artificial intelligence neural machine translation Gravity model manufacturing exports |
| Date: | 2024–12–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04825931 |
| By: | Axelle Ferriere (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | The invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022 prompted numerous countries to impose economic sanctions against Russia. In the months following the onset of the conflict, coalitions of nations collaboratively devised a set of measures aimed at restricting trade with Russia. Additionally, assets belonging to Russian individuals or companies were frozen. The scale of these sanctions has been unparalleled, marking a historic moment not witnessed for decades. This pertains not only to the extent and variety of economic actions taken against Russia but also to the aspect of implementing such actions against a nation of Russia's size and geopolitical importance. To evaluate the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy, analysts examined the exchange rate, which has the advantage of being available in real time. Initially, after the sanctions were imposed, the Ruble experienced depreciation, prompting several analysts to assert the effectiveness of the sanctions. However, a few months later, the Ruble began to appreciate, eventually surpassing its pre-war level in late spring 2022 and maintaining this elevated position for several months. This rebound in the Russian currency raised inquiries about the correlation between sanctions and exchange rates: is it inevitable for the currency to depreciate after sanctions, and if so, why? |
| Date: | 2024–04–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04849208 |
| By: | Debapriya Bhattacharya; Naima Jahan Trisha |
| Abstract: | To secure and reap the benefits from GI recognition, the government’s role is necessary, but the role of producers is no less pertinent. Although twenty-eight GI products have been registered in Bangladesh, none have been exported with the GI tag yet, indicating a failure on the part of exporters to capitalise on the GI tags. Eligible businesses must contact the GI owner organisations to gain from premium export prices. |
| Keywords: | Geographical Indications, GI recognition, GI products, Trans-border GIs, Bangladesh |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:pbrief:59 |
| By: | Bård Harstad |
| Abstract: | A simple dynamic game is used for analyzing international environmental problems and climate agreements. Different countries are, over time, emitting as well as investing in green technology. In this framework, we can analyze the business-as-usual outcome, short vs. long term agreements, self-enforcing agreements, participation, compliance, alternative designs, and the development from the Kyoto Protocol to the Paris Agreement. The text should be accessible to students at any level. |
| JEL: | C72 F53 H87 Q2 Q5 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33161 |