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on International Trade |
| By: | Rebecca Freeman; Marco Garofalo; Enrico Longoni; Kalina Manova; Rebecca Mari; Thomas Prayer; Thomas Sampson |
| Abstract: | How does dismantling deep integration affect international trade? This paper provides new evidence on the consequences of disintegration by estimating the impact of Brexit on goods trade by UK firms. The UK’s exit from the EU’s single market and customs union in January 2021 led to an immediate, sharp drop in both exports and imports with the EU for the average firm. In addition, many exporters and importers stopped trading with the EU entirely. However, heterogeneous firm-level responses to the implementation of trade barriers mitigated Brexit’s impact on aggregate trade. The decline in exports was concentrated among smaller firms, but insignificant for the largest firms. Our estimates imply that, in the short run, leaving the EU reduced worldwide UK exports by 6.4% and worldwide imports by 3.1%. The fall in imports was driven by lower imports from the EU, which importers offset by sourcing more from the rest of the world. |
| Date: | 2024–12–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:1062 |
| By: | Fairuz , Maisha (Maastricht University); Foster-McGregor , Neil (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | While global value chains (GVCs) are considered an important development escalator, concerns over their environmental consequences have been increasing. By providing opportunities to shift production to developing economies, GVCs risk carbon leakage. Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) have proved important drivers of GVC trade. In this paper we examine whether the presence and breadth of PTAs is associated with increased emissions embodied in GVC trade, and further ask whether the presence of environmental provisions in PTAs impacts upon emissions traded in GVCs. Our results suggest that the presence of a PTA between partners is associated with increased emissions embodied in GVC trade, with this effect largely the result of increased GVC trade between PTA partners. We also show, however, that the presence of an environmental provision in PTAs can mitigate this effect, with environmental provisions reducing both the scale of GVC trade and the emissions intensity of that trade. |
| Keywords: | global value chains; CO2 emissions; preferential trade agreements; gravity model |
| JEL: | F13 F18 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0755 |
| By: | Elhan-Kayalar, Yesim (Asian Development Bank); Kucheryavyy, Konstantin (CUNY Baruch College); Nose, Manabu (International Monetary Fund); Sawada, Yasuyuki (University of Tokyo); Shangguan, Ruo (Jinan University); Thanh Tung, Nguyen (National Economics University) |
| Abstract: | In developing economies, foreign direct investment (FDI) plays a crucial role by providing resources that facilitate participation in international trade and support economic development. Focusing on Viet Nam as a case study, this research aims to quantify the distributional effects of the United States–People’s Republic of China trade dispute across different regions in Viet Nam. By utilizing detailed firm-level and customs data, we demonstrate that FDI in Viet Nam is geographically concentrated in the northern, central, and southern regions. Access to road and port networks significantly influences the choice of FDI locations. Furthermore, we highlight the important role that the foreign affiliates of multinational firms from East Asia and the United States have played in reshaping Viet Nam’s trade flows in the aftermath of the trade dispute between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. This study sheds light on the interplay between transport infrastructure, FDI, and international trade. |
| Keywords: | trade; ports; roads; US–PRC trade dispute; Viet Nam; PRC |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F14 R40 R41 |
| Date: | 2024–12–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0761 |
| By: | Ivan DESEATNICOV; FUKAO Kyoji |
| Abstract: | The increased export controls on advanced technologies like semiconductors imposed by the U.S. and aligned countries targeting primarily China are accelerating technological decoupling. What are consequences of this process on global value chains (GVCs) dominated by the activities of multinational enterprises (MNEs)? To answer this question, we use Japanese microdata for the period 2017–2021. We find an increase in the exit of Japanese MNEs from China. Building on this observation, we hypothesize that this increase in exits may have been triggered by an increase in production costs brought about by a decline in the variety of imported intermediate inputs as a direct consequence of the increased export controls. We offer a simple theoretical framework to rationalize this mechanism, which guided us in creating an export controls index using a detailed review of U.S. Federal Register documents and input-output tables. Our empirical analysis of the probability of exit confirms that the reduction in imported intermediate inputs plays an important role in the behavior of Japanese MNEs. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:24082 |
| By: | Samuel Kortum (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); David A. Weisbach (The University of Chicago Law School) |
| Abstract: | Climate policy by a coalition of countries can shift activities extraction, production, and consumptionÑto regions outside the coalition. We build a stylized general-equilibrium model of trade and carbon externalities to derive a coalitionÕs optimal Pareto-improving policy in such an environment. It can be implemented through: (i) a tax on fossil-fuel extraction at a rate equal to the global marginal harm from carbon emissions, (ii) a tax on imports of energy and goods, and a rebate of the tax on exports of energy but not goods, all at a lower rate per unit of carbon than the extraction tax rate, and (iii) a goods- specific export subsidy. This combination of taxes and subsidies exploits international trade to expand the policyÕs reach. It promotes energy efficient production and eliminates leakage by taxing the carbon content of goods imports and by encouraging goods exports. It controls the energy price in the non-taxing region by balancing supply-side and demand-side taxes. We use a quantitative version of the model to illustrate the gains achieved by the optimal policy and simpler variants of it. Combining supply-side and demand-side taxes generates first-order welfare improvements over current and proposed climate policies. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2311r1 |
| By: | Rafael Machado Parente; Mr. Flavien Moreau |
| Abstract: | Trade barriers and poor infrastructure play an important role in limiting trade integration in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Closing half of the infrastructure gap between LAC and advanced economies could lift exports by 30 percent. Reducing import tariffs could boost LAC’s trade, but its responsiveness is lower than in other EMDEs, particularly in the long run, due to the region’s specialization in agricultural exports with inelastic demand and supply constraints like growing cycles and weather conditions. Amid deepening global trade tensions, LAC is well placed to withstand a mild trade fragmentation scenario, in which trade barriers are erected only among large economies. However, the region’s output losses could be sizable in more extreme scenarios, where the global economy splinters into competing economic blocs and LAC loses access to important markets. Boosting trade, including regional trade, could pay a double dividend of lifting growth in the region while mitigating risks from global fragmentation. |
| Keywords: | Latin America and the Caribbean; Trade barriers; Gravity; Geoeconomic fragmentation |
| Date: | 2024–12–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/253 |
| By: | Görg, Holger; Jacobs, Anna; Meuchelböck, Saskia |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we use a novel firm level dataset for Germany to investigate the effect of sanctions on export behaviour and performance of German firms. More specifically, we study the sanctions imposed by the EU against Russia in 2014 in response to the annexation of Crimea and Russia’s countermeasures. We find a substantial negative effect on both the extensive and intensive margin of German exports. While the negative effects are strongest for firms exporting products subject to trade restrictions, we provide further evidence on the indirect effects of sanctions. Analysing the impact on broader measures of firm performance, we document that the cost of sanctions is heterogeneous across firms but overall modest. Our results reveal that the negative impact of the shock was concentrated primarily among a small number of firms that were highly dependent on Russia as an export market and those directly affected by the sanctions. |
| Keywords: | Sanctions, Foreign policy, Firm behaviour, Germany, Trade |
| JEL: | F1 F14 F51 L25 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:307099 |
| By: | Viral V. Acharya; Zhengyang Jiang; Robert J. Richmond; Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes international trade and health policy coordination during a pandemic by developing a two-economy, two-sector trade model integrated into a micro-founded SIR model of infection dynamics. Disease transmission intensity can differ by goods (manufactured versus services and domestic versus foreign). Governments can adopt containment policies to suppress infection spread domestically, and levy import tariffs to prevent infection from abroad. The globally coordinated policy dynamically adjusts both policy instruments heterogeneously across sectors. The more-infected country aggressively contains the pandemic, raising tariffs and tilting the terms of trade in its favor, while the less-infected country lowers tariffs to share its economic pain. In contrast, in the Nash equilibrium of uncoordinated policies the more infected country does not internalize the global spread of the pandemic, lowering tariffs and its terms of trade, especially in the contact-intensive services sector, while the less infected coun- try counters the spread by raising tariffs. Coordination therefore matters: the health-cum-trade war leads to less consumption and production, as well as smaller health gains due to inadequate global diversification of infection curves. |
| Keywords: | Trade War, Terms of Trade, Pandemics, Health Policy |
| JEL: | E61 F13 F42 H12 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_612 |
| By: | Javier Flórez Mendoza; Robert Stehrer |
| Abstract: | Abstract:Africa’s trade relationship with Europe is shaped by historical ties and by emerging economic opportunities. This policy brief examines Africa’s trade with Europe, showing selected trends, the current status and future potential, with a special focus on the European Union (EU) and Austria. It also considers Africa’s economic interactions with major global players such as China and the United States, providing comparisons with Africa-EU trade flows, total trade volumes and key industries. In addition, it highlights how the EU could strengthen its supply chains and reduce dependency risks by fostering co-operation with Africa in sectors aligned with its green and digital goals. It examines how the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could be a catalyst to reshape trade dynamics by serving as an intercontinental economic bridge. Finally, the brief draws policy conclusions, offering insights into how the EU can enhance its trade strategies with Africa to foster mutual economic growth and resilience. |
| Keywords: | EU, AfCFTA |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:pbrief:y:2025:m:01:i:65 |
| By: | Ms. Nan Li; Sergii Meleshchuk |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates, for the first time, the exchange rate elasticity of bilateral trade in services, providing indirect evidence of both producer currency pricing and dominant currency pricing in services trade. We developed a novel dataset of bilateral trade flows in services, covering twelve broad service sectors across 245 countries from 1985 to 2022. We find that, similar to manufacturing trade, the value of services trade is more closely associated with US dollar exchange rates than with bilateral exchange rates, although this relationship varies by service category. Zeroing in on tourism, where proxies for trade volume (such as tourist arrivals and hotel stays) are available, we find that bilateral exchange rates play a larger role on tourism volume compared to the dollar exchange rates. In addition, in the context of global supply chain, we find that downstream dollar exchange rate movements, rather than downstream bilateral exchange rates, affect the demand for service imports via forward linkages. |
| Keywords: | trade in services; exchange rates; dominant currency pricing; producer currency pricing; global value chain; dollar exchange rate movement; pricing in service; exchange rate elasticity; currency pricing; Currencies; Trade balance; Exports; Global |
| Date: | 2024–11–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/242 |
| By: | von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan; Nivievskyi, Oleg |
| Abstract: | In 2016 the EU granted Ukraine trade preferences in the form of tariff rate quotas (TRQs) for agricul- tural products including sugar under the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement. In June 2022 in response to Russia's attack on Ukraine, the EU extended these preferences to full liberalisa- tion of sugar trade under the so-called Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs). Prior to 2022, EU imports of sugar from Ukraine were sporadic and never amounted to more than 11% of total EU imports in any given month. However, in late 2022 in response to the ATMs, EU imports of white sugar from Ukraine increased, and by late 2023 and early 2024 Ukraine was supplying over 50% of the EU's monthly sugar imports. [...] |
| Keywords: | Sugar, Import, Sugar market, Stakeholders, Ukraine, EU countries |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:daredp:308055 |
| By: | Kangasharju, Aki |
| Abstract: | Abstract This memorandum summarises recent research findings on the effects of immigration to Finland. Analysed research papers are published mainly in 2024. The memorandum was sent as background material to the growth working group led by Risto Murto in November 2024. The memorandum consists of five perspectives: migration needs, structure, employment and income of immigrants, studies and qualifications, and macroeconomic impacts. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Economic effects, Destination country |
| JEL: | J61 D6 |
| Date: | 2024–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:146 |
| By: | Larch, Mario; Wanner, Joschka |
| Abstract: | International cooperation is at the core of multilateral climate policy. How is its effectiveness harmed by individual countries not participating in the global mitigation effort? We use a multi-sector structural trade model with carbon emissions from production and a constant elasticity of fossil fuel supply function to simulate the consequences of unilateral non-participation in the Paris Agreement. Taking into account both direct and leakage effects, we find that non-participation of the US would eliminate more than a third of the world emissions reduction (31.8% direct effect and 6.4% leakage effect), while a potential non-participation of China lowers the world emission reduction by 24.1% (11.9% direct effect and 12.2% leakage effect). The substantial leakage is primarily driven by technique effects induced by falling international fossil fuel prices. In terms of welfare, the overwhelming majority of countries gain from the implementation of the Paris Agreement and most countries have only very little to gain from unilaterally deciding not to participate. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, International trade, Carbon leakage, Fossil fuel supply |
| JEL: | F14 F18 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:307097 |
| By: | Povilas Lastauskas; Ziran Ding; Mustapha Douch |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how export activity impacts a firm's energy intensity, emphasizing the upgrading process. We introduce a firm-level complexity index incorporating two dimensions: the complexity of the traded goods and market destinations. We show that growth in external demand incentivizes firms to undertake upgrading activities, resulting in lower energy intensity. However, financial constraints diminish the energy efficiency gains from upgrading, especially for small firms. Additionally, upgraded firms can leverage higher markups, but this is effective only for larger firms. The findings suggest targeted support for small firms and underscore the necessity of open trade in a fragmented global landscape. |
| Keywords: | complexity index; energy intensity; export activity; upgrading activity; upgrading process; Exports; Energy conservation; Imports; Global value chains; Demand elasticity; Global |
| Date: | 2024–12–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/248 |
| By: | Kurz, Antonia; Rubínová, Stela |
| Abstract: | Policies that affect t he c ost o f u sing f ossil f uels i n p roduction h ave a complex impact on the economy. In this paper, we focus on the role of these policies for the pattern of comparative advantage through their effect o n p roduction c osts in manufacturing industries. Using data on carbon prices and fossil fuel subsidies, we show that less stringent carbon pricing policies increase comparative advantage in carbon intensive industries. In the first step, we use a fixed-effects gravity model of trade to estimate the export capabilities that determine the pattern of comparative advantage. In the second step, we regress the change in export capability of a country in an industry on the change in the country's carbon pricing policy, interacted with the carbon intensity of the industry, controlling for country and industry fixed effects. O ur r esults s uggest t hat a 1 0% i ncrease i n c arbon p rice i s a ssociated with a decline in export capability in the most carbon-intensive industry by 0.3% to 0.7%. On the other hand, industries with low carbon intensity are barely affected. Overall, we estimate that changes in all the policy instruments combined can explain up to 1.2% of the changes in export capabilities in the periods 2012-2015 and 2015-2018. We then use the econometric results to illustrate the potential impact of removing fossil fuel subsidies on the pattern of comparative advantage in carbon intensive industries. Furthermore, we extend our analysis to consider potential policy spillovers along the supply chain. The results suggest that carbon pricing policies compound along the domestic supply chain so that an industry's export competitiveness increases when its carbon intensive domestic suppliers face lower carbon prices or higher fossil fuel subsidies. We also find s ome l imited empirical support for supply chain spillovers of foreign carbon prices. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Pricing, Fossil Fuel Subsidies, Fossil Fuel Taxes, Comparative Advantage, Competitiveness |
| JEL: | F18 Q48 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wtowps:308083 |
| By: | Jin Liu |
| Abstract: | Multinational firms colocate production and innovation by offshoring them to the same host country or region. In this paper, I examine the determinants of multinational firms’ production and innovation locations. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variations in tariffs, I find complementarities between production and innovation within host countries and regions. To evaluate manufacturing reshoring policies, I develop a quantitative multicountry offshoring location choice model. I allow for rich colocation benefits and cross-country interdependencies and prove supermodularity of the model to solve this otherwise NP-hard problem. I find the effects of manufacturing reshoring policies are nonlinear, contingent upon firm heterogeneity, and they accumulate dynamically. |
| Keywords: | multinational firms, colocation of production and innovation, offshoring |
| JEL: | F14 F23 L23 O32 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:24-64 |
| By: | Di Mauro, Filippo; Matani, Marco; Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P. |
| Abstract: | Based on the sufficient statistics approach developed by Huang and Ottaviano (2024), we show how the state of technology of European industries relative to the rest of the world can be empirically assessed in a way that is simple in terms of computation, parsimonious in terms of data requirements, but still comprehensive in terms of information. The lack of systematic cross-industry correlation between export specialization and technological advantage suggests that standard measures of revealed comparative advantage only imperfectly capture a country's technological prowess due to the concurrent influences of factor prices, market size, markups, firm selection and market share reallocation. |
| Keywords: | comparative advantage, European cross-country data, firm heterogeneity, international trade, monopolistic competition, multi-product firms, productivity |
| JEL: | B17 C19 C51 C80 D21 D43 F02 F12 F14 F61 L13 L25 O49 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:308049 |
| By: | Maczulskij, Terhi |
| Abstract: | Abstract This study examines the relationship between immigration and firmlevel innovation in the Finnish manufacturing sector. The analysis leverages unique matched data, including employees’ immigration status, firm-level patenting, process and product innovation activities, and innovation inputs spanning the 2000–2018 period. To address the potential endogeneity of a firm’s immigrant employment, an instrumental variables approach is employed using the historical geographic distribution of immigrants in the region where the firm is located. The results reveal that an increase in immigrant employment positively influences process and product innovation, and skilled foreign knowledge boosts the number of patent applications. Additionally, immigration leads to reduced external R&D expenditures, indicating that immigrant workers may substitute outsourced innovation inputs. The study also finds no evidence that immigration adversely affects native workers’ employment in Finnish firms. By contrast, it may benefit natives with complementary skills. |
| Keywords: | Firm-level, Immigration, Innovation |
| JEL: | D22 F22 O30 |
| Date: | 2025–01–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:wpaper:124 |
| By: | José Pulido |
| Abstract: | The Covid-19 pandemic severely disrupted the maritime transportation industry, leading to historic surge in container freight rates, which only returned to normal in 2023. In this paper I examine the welfare effects on a particular country, Colombia, of the observed disruption in international freight rates during the 2020-2023 period. For this, I use a quantitative model of international trade with out-of-steady-state transitional dynamics and a global production network, along with an instrumental variable approach to estimate a trade elasticity to freight. I quantify both the direct effects of freight increases on goods transported to and from Colombia, as well as the indirect impact of heightened rates on routes across the rest of the world. The freight disruption caused a welfare loss of 0.4%, attributable solely to the direct effects, as the indirect impact simultaneously enhances Colombia’s relative trade openness, thereby compensating for the increased shipping costs globally. **** RESUMEN: La pandemia de Covid-19 afectó severamente a la industria del transporte marítimo, provocando un aumento histórico en los fletes de contenedores, los cuales retornaron a niveles previos solo en 2023. Este artículo estudia los efectos sobre el bienestar de Colombia del ajuste observado en las tarifas internacionales de fletes de contenedores durante el período 2020-2023. Para ello, se utiliza un modelo cuantitativo de comercio internacional con dinámicas de ajuste fuera del estado estacionario y una red de producción global, junto con una estrategía de variable instrumental para estimar la elasticidad de los flujos comerciales a los fletes. Se cuantifican tanto los efectos directos del aumento en los fletes de los bienes transportados desde y hacia Colombia, asi como el impacto indirecto del incremento en los fletes en las demás rutas internacionales. La disrupción en los fletes causó una pérdida de bienestar del 0, 4 % atribuible únicamente a los efectos directos, ya que el aumento en los fletes en las demás rutas internacionales mejora simultáneamente el grado relativo de apertura comercial de Colombia, compensando los efectos de costos. |
| Keywords: | Container freight, transportation costs, international trade, Covid-19, Fletes, contenedores, transporte marítimo, comercio |
| JEL: | F16 F62 F17 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1288 |
| By: | Mitchener, Kris James (Santa Clara University, CAGE, CESifo, CEPR & NBER); Wandschneider, Kirsten (University of Vienna) |
| Abstract: | The Great Depression is the canonical case of a widespread currency war, with more than 70 countries devaluing their currencies relative to gold between 1929 and 1936. What were the currency war’s effects on trade flows? We use newly-compiled, high- frequency bilateral trade data and gravity models that account for when and whether trade partners had devalued to identify the effects of the currency war on global trade. Our empirical estimates show that a country’s trade was reduced by more than 21% following devaluation. This negative and statistically significant decline in trade suggests that the currency war destroyed the trade-enhancing benefits of the global monetary standard, ending regime coordination and increasing trade costs. |
| Keywords: | currency war, monetary regimes, gold standard, competitive devaluations, “beggar thy neighbor, †gravity model JEL Classification: F14, F33, F42, N10, N70 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:740 |
| By: | Doireann Fitzgerald |
| Abstract: | Static trade models imply modest gains from trade. I quantify the gains from trade in a multi-country dynamic stochastic environment, taking into account the contributions to welfare of trade across states of the world, and over time, as well as trade within dates and states (3-D gains). For developing countries, which have volatile productivity, standard risk aversion implies that 3-D gains from trade are at least twice as big as static gains, even under financial autarky. Because productivity is less volatile for developed countries, their 3-D gains from trade are only modestly bigger than static gains, even under complete markets. |
| Keywords: | Gains from Trade; International risk sharing |
| JEL: | F11 F41 |
| Date: | 2024–12–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmwp:99350 |
| By: | Easaw, Joshy (Cardiff Business School); Sun, Yang (Cardiff Business School) |
| Abstract: | Recent studies show that significant historical events, particularly the slave trade, had an impact on contemporary African economies. The transmission mechanisms, however, are not well established. The purpose of the present paper is to consider two such transmission mechanisms, notably militarism and economic institutions. The present paper explores the impact of the historical slave trade, or exports, on institutions in two ways. Firstly, its impact on contemporary militarism as a political institution and, secondly, its impact on economic institutions, in particular property rights enforcement. The analysis uniquely shows the causal link between an important aspect of the historical slave trade, notably the import of military arms, and current African institutions. Finally, we also show that contemporary militarism, especially in the affected African economies, has a direct impact on their incomes. |
| Keywords: | African slave exports, militarism, property rights, institutions, average incomes |
| JEL: | N17 N47 O43 O55 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2024/22 |
| By: | Glenn Magerman (ULB, CEPR and CESIfo); Alberto Palazzolo (Economics and Research Department, National Bank of Belgium and ULB) |
| Abstract: | After decades of globalization, many countries are now considering various measures to reduce their dependence on third countries and to incentivize domestic production. This paper analyzes a policy toolbox encompassing trade, industrial, and public policies and their effects on the EU and its geographical regions. We develop a multi-sector, multi-region general equilibrium framework with imperfect competition, input-output linkages, and external economies of scale. Regional and supranational governments set policies and raise taxes and provide subsidies to fund these. We calibrate our framework using detailed data on 235 EU NUTS2 regions and 25 Rest of the World aggregates, with 55 sectors and input-output linkages both within and across regions. Our results show that raising trade barriers reduces EU welfare, with substantial variation across regions. Industrial policy generates positive welfare effects. Public policy results are ambiguous. Across all policies, input-output linkages significantly amplify positive and negative welfare changes, dominating other channels such as classical gains from trade or economies of scale channels. Even common policies, like trade policy, can generate significant winners and losers across regions within the same country. Moreover, the same region can gain under one policy but lose under another. These results highlight that one policy objective can be implemented through multiple instruments, generating positive or negative aggregate welfare effects under each instrument, while obfuscating massive heterogeneity in regional outcomes, even within countries. |
| Keywords: | Deglobalization, Regional Inequalities, Trade policy, Industrial Policy, Public Policy, Supply Chains, General Equilibrium |
| JEL: | F10 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:202410-464 |
| By: | Jeronimo Carballo; Richard Mansfield; Kassandra McLean |
| Abstract: | We link U.S. job records with both firm-level business register and customs records to construct a novel set of summary statistics and descriptive regressions that highlight the central role played by the small set of multinational firms (denoted RP XM firms) who engage in both importing and exporting with related parties in translating international trade shocks to shifts in labor demand. We find that RP XM firms 1) dominate trade volumes; 2) account for very disproportionate shares of national employment and payroll; 3) employ greater shares of workers in higher pay deciles; 4) disproportionately poach other firms’ high paid workers; 5) offer higher raises to their existing workers. These hiring and pay patterns generally exist even among new RP XM firms, but strengthen with RP XM tenure, and continue to hold, albeit at smaller magnitudes, after conditioning on standard proxies for firm and worker productivity. Taken together, these findings reveal that RP XM status is a reliable proxy for the kind of firm that drives the initial labor market impacts of trade shocks, and that high paid workers are likely to be most directly exposed to such shocks. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:24-77 |
| By: | Sotiris Blanas (University of Warwick); Maurizio Zanardi (University of Sussex) |
| Abstract: | Using a representative sample of firms in Belgian manufacturing over 2001Q1–2017Q4, we study the effects of their international sourcing activities and domestic wages on their domestic output prices, as well as the effects of international sourcing on (relative) domestic wages. Controlling for firm size and other factors, we find that higher shares of imported intermediates, especially when they originate from lower-income countries, result in lower domestic output prices. This is consistent with the cost- saving aspect of international sourcing. For high-tech products, however, we also find that higher shares of imported intermediates from high-or lower-income countries lead to higher domestic prices. This is consistent with the input quality-enhancing aspect of international sourcing, but also its cost- saving aspect allowing for the re-allocation of domestic resources towards innovation and technology-intensive activities. In addition, we find that the share of imported intermediates from high-income countries is differentially negatively associated with the wage bill share and relative wage for white- collar workers in high-tech firms. Taken together, we view these results as suggestive evidence of firms combining higher-quality foreign inputs and domestic labour—especially blue-collar workers—in order to service the domestic market with higher-quality outputs at higher prices. |
| Keywords: | International sourcing; importing; intermediates; wages; producer prices |
| JEL: | F10 F14 E31 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:202411-470 |
| By: | Kamin, Katrin; Langhammer, Rolf J. |
| Abstract: | The paper explores whether the changing dynamics of the BRICS potentially influence the formation of economic and political blocs and investigates whether BRICS+ can serve as a geoeconomic counterweight to the G7. Evaluating the impact of resource endowment, trade relations, political regimes, and financial market roles of BRICS+ members on the global economic and political landscapes, the article discusses the geopolitical importance of BRICS+, and the G7 responses. We conclude that the BRICS+ serve as a wake-up call for the G7, urging a reassessment of political and economic ties in the face of a changing global scenario. |
| Keywords: | BRICS, trade, financial markets, resources, geopolitics, G7 |
| JEL: | F1 F3 F5 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:306420 |
| By: | Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); López Molina, Gonzalo (Analistas Financieros Internacionales) |
| Abstract: | What is the future of international migration flows? The growing availability of bilateral international migration data has resulted in an improved understanding of the determinants of migration flows through the estimation of theory-based gravity models. However, the use of these models as a prediction tool has remained a mostly unexplored research area. This paper estimates simple gravity models of bilateral migration flows for the whole world and projects these models into the future. Our results confirm a limited role for economic factors and a large one for demographic ones, in line with the literature. As a novel contribution, we show that estimates based on net flows are substantially lower than those based on gross flows. The reason is that network effects are historically more correlated with gross than with net flows. |
| Keywords: | international migration, prediction, gravity model |
| JEL: | F22 J11 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17572 |
| By: | Mark Vancauteren (Universiteit Hasselt); Kevin Randy Chemo Dzukou (INRAE, Nantes); Michael Polder (Statistics Netherlands); Pierre Mohnen (Maastricht University); Javier Miranda (Halle Institute for Economic Research, Friedrich-Schiller University Jena) |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between ICT, total factor productivity and export at the firm level in Belgium, France and the Netherlands. In particular, we look at whether ICT has both a direct effect on export and an indirect effect via productivity improvements. We allow for endogeneity, unobserved heterogeneity, dynamic feedback, initial conditions and correlations between the time-invariant random effects and between the idiosyncratic random effects. We find similarities but also differences in the effects of ICT on export between the three countries. |
| Keywords: | ICT, productivity, export, firm data, Panel Data, international comparison |
| JEL: | C23 D24 F14 O30 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:202410-462 |
| By: | Lavery, Paul; Spaliara, Marina-Eliza; Görg, Holger |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether private equity (PE)-backed companies are better able to remain active on export markets compared to similar non-PE firms, when hit by a negative shock. We look at two such recent shocks, namely the global financial crisis (GFC) and COVID-19 pandemic. We construct two matched samples, one for each crisis period, to assess the resilience of exporting under PE ownership in recessionary periods. We then explore how improvements in working capital management allow PE-backed firms to engage in international activities and maintain their export relationships relative to similar, non-PE-backed firms. Our results show that the export activities of PE-backed firms are significantly more resilient to the effects of the GFC but less pronounced following COVID-19. PE investment enhances working capital management, which in turn improves the persistence in export markets at the onset of the crises. |
| Keywords: | Private equity buyouts, exporting, working capital, recessions |
| JEL: | F14 G01 G32 G34 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:306864 |
| By: | Bruno Merlevede (UGent); Bernhard Michel (Federal Planning Bureau) |
| Abstract: | This paper documents a trend towards deglobalization in European-based multinational networks for the period 2010-2019. In the second half of the decade, the number of foreign contraction episodes shows an increasing trend, while the number of foreign expansions decreased substantially. Foreign expansions also increasingly resulted in a reduced geographic scope of networks (nearshoring) and a higher concentration of activity in geopolitically aligned host countries (friendshoring). We estimate home-country effects of foreign network restructuring by analyzing the number of domestic affiliates and different outcomes for parents and domestic affiliates. We find no evidence of increased home country activity in the wake of foreign contraction episodes, but foreign expansion yields benefits for the domestic economy both along the domestic extensive and intensive margins. A reduced geographic scope and geopolitical reorientation do not induce systematic differences in the home-country effects neither for expansion nor for contraction episodes. |
| Keywords: | on episodes.; International Organization of Production, Multinational Networks, Restructuring, Home Country Effects, Deglobalization |
| JEL: | F14 F23 F44 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:202410-465 |
| By: | Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the external economic relations in the former command economies of Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) by exploring historical trade data. It provides a descriptive analysis of foreign trade statistics, drawing on the newly introduced wiiw COMECON Dataset, which contains economic time series of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA or COMECON) countries from 1945 to 1994. While trade with the West was limited, the majority of trade took place among the CMEA members states, with the Soviet Union (USSR) serving as the most important partner. The USSR supplied energy and raw materials to its partners in exchange for manufactured products and other goods. However, when examining historical data from CESEE’s command economies, it is important to consider the limitations of data and distinctive features of this economic system. wiiw COMECON Dataset https //comecon.wiiw.ac.at/ |
| Keywords: | Command economies; Central, East and Southeast Europe; international trade; CMEA; COMECON; economic history, historical statistics |
| JEL: | N74 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:256 |
| By: | Francisco Rodr\'iguez |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the potential impact of different US economic sanctions policies on Venezuelan migration flows. I consider three possible departures from the current status quo in which selected oil companies are permitted to conduct transactions with Venezuela's state-owned oil sector: a return to maximum pressure, characterized by intensive use of secondary sanctions, a more limited tightening that would revoke only the current Chevron license, and a complete lifting of economic sanctions. I find that sanctions significantly influence migration patterns by disrupting oil revenues, which fund imports critical to productivity in the non-oil sector. Reimposing maximum pressure sanctions would lead to an estimated one million additional Venezuelans emigrating over the next five years compared to a baseline scenario of no economic sanctions. If the US aims to address the Venezuelan migrant crisis effectively, a policy of engagement and lifting economic sanctions appears more likely to stabilize migration flows than a return to maximum pressure strategies. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2412.19301 |
| By: | G. BARATE (Ecole nationale des ponts et chaussées); L. FONTAGNE (Banque de France, CEPII, PSE); R. LAFROGNE-JOUSSIER (INSEE, CREST, Ecole Polytechnique) |
| Abstract: | In an increasingly uncertain environment, firms are differently exposed to shocks and may or may not bear the cost of reorganizing their value chain by reshoring or offshoring. This paper draws on a survey of French firms about the decision to reorganize part of their value chain between January 2018 and December 2020. Reorganizations prove to be infrequent, made by firms employing a higher proportion of skilled workers, in manufacturing rather than in services, with a predominance of multinational firms. Even though high-skill firms are reorganizing more, reorganized business functions are less skill-intensive, but more intensive in routine tasks. Activities more intensive in intangible capital are more likely to be reorganized within firm’s boundaries. Last, besides reshoring in France, activities are located close to France when offshored. India, combining low-average wage and a large endowment of high-skilled workers, receives a disproportionate share of skill intensive activities. |
| Keywords: | Supply-chains, Reshoring, Offshoring |
| JEL: | F14 F23 L10 L23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nse:doctra:2024-24 |
| By: | Pia M. Orrenius; Chloe N. Smith; Madeline Zavodny |
| Abstract: | Hiring someone who is not authorized to work in the United States is illegal, and employers who knowingly hire unauthorized immigrant workers may face civil and criminal penalties. The federal government uses a variety of actions, including worksite raids and paperwork audits, to enforce the prohibition on hiring unauthorized workers. Compliance costs and the possibility of becoming the target of an immigration enforcement action may affect U.S. businesses’ decisions about whom to hire as well as how many workers to employ and how much to pay them, but little previous research has studied such potential impacts. We find that increases in worksite enforcement actions in an industry raise employment but reduce the average wage. Enforcement also boosts both hires and separations, so worker turnover rises. Actions that target employers—audits, investigations, fines and criminal charges—have larger effects than raids, which target workers. The results are consistent with businesses shifting to on-the-books or legal workers when immigration enforcement activity increases. However, tougher enforcement does not lead to an increase in business sign-ups in E-Verify or IMAGE, which are two federal government programs that can help businesses determine whether workers are authorized. This suggests that, even in the face of tougher enforcement, employers find it costly to use programs that check workers’ employment eligibility. |
| Keywords: | unauthorized immigration; Immigration enforcement; raids; audits; E-Verify |
| JEL: | J15 J61 J63 K37 |
| Date: | 2024–11–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:99175 |
| By: | Aksoy, Cevat Giray (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development); Eichengreen, Barry (University of California, Berkeley); Litina, Anastasia (University of Macedonia); Özgüzel, Cem (Paris School of Economics); Yu, Chan (University of International Business and Economics Beijing) |
| Abstract: | Scholars and politicians have expressed concern that immigrants from countries with low levels of political trust transfer those attitudes to their destination countries. Using large-scale survey data covering 38 countries and exploiting origin-country variation across different cohorts and survey rounds, we show that, to the contrary, immigrants more exposed to institutional corruption before migrating exhibit higher levels of political trust in their new country. Higher trust is observed for national political institutions only and does not carry over to other supra-national institutions and individuals. We report evidence that higher levels of political trust among immigrants persist, leading to greater electoral participation and political engagement in the long run. The impact of home-country corruption on political trust in the destination country is further amplified by large differences in levels of income and democracy between home and host countries, which serve to highlight the contrast in the two settings. It is lessened by exposure to media, a source of information about institutional quality. Finally, our extensive analyses indicate that self-selection into host countries based on trust is highly unlikely and the results hold even when focusing only on forced migrants who were unlikely to have been subject to selection. |
| Keywords: | corruption, institutions, immigrants, political trust |
| JEL: | Z1 D73 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17553 |
| By: | Zhesheng Qiu; Yicheng Wang; Le Xu; Francesco Zanetti |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the design of monetary policy in small open economies with domestic and cross-border production networks and nominal rigidities. The monetary policy that closes the domestic output gap is nearly optimal and is implemented by stabilizing the aggregate inflation index that weights sectoral inflation according to the sector’s roles as a supplier of inputs and a net exporter of products within the international production networks. To close the output gap, monetary policy should assign large weights to inflation in sectors with small direct or indirect (i.e., via the downstream sectors) import shares and failing to account for the cross-border production networks overemphasizes inflation in sectors that export intensively directly and indirectly (i.e., via the downstream sectors). We validate our theoretical results using the World Input-Output Database and show that the monetary policy that closes the output gap outperforms alternative policies that abstract from the openness of the economy or the input-output linkages |
| Date: | 2025–01–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:1064 |
| By: | David Autor; David Dorn; Gordon Hanson; Maggie R. Jones; Bradley Setzler |
| Abstract: | We analyze the distinct adjustment paths of U.S. labor markets (places) and U.S. workers (people) to increased Chinese import competition during the 2000s. Using comprehensive register data for 2000–2019, we document that employment levels more than fully rebound in trade-exposed places after 2010, while employment-to-population ratios remain depressed and manufacturing employment further atrophies. The adjustment of places to trade shocks is generational: affected areas recover primarily by adding workers to non-manufacturing who were below working age when the shock occurred. Entrants are disproportionately native-born Hispanics, foreign-born immigrants, women, and the college-educated, who find employment in relatively low-wage service sectors like medical services, education, retail, and hospitality. Using the panel structure of the employer-employee data, we decompose changes in the employment composition of places into trade-induced shifts in the gross flows of people across sectors, locations, and non-employment status. Contrary to standard models, trade shocks reduce geographic mobility, with both in- and out-migration remaining depressed through 2019. The employment recovery instead stems almost entirely from young adults and foreign-born immigrants taking their first U.S. jobs in affected areas, with minimal contributions from cross-sector transitions of former manufacturing workers. Although worker inflows into non-manufacturing more than fully offset manufacturing employment losses in trade-exposed locations after 2010, incumbent workers neither fully recover earnings losses nor predominately exit the labor market, but rather age in place as communities undergo rapid demographic and industrial transitions. |
| JEL: | F16 J23 J31 J62 L6 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:24-78 |
| By: | Ricardo Correa; Julian di Giovanni; Linda S. Goldberg; Camelia Minoiu |
| Abstract: | This paper uses U.S. credit register data and the 2018–19 Trade War to study the effects of uncertainty on domestic credit supply. Exploiting differences in banks' ex-ante exposure to trade uncertainty, we find that increased uncertainty is associated with a broad lending contraction across their customer firms. This result is consistent with banks responding to uncertainty with wait-and-see behaviors, where more exposed banks curtail risky exposures, reduce loan maturities, and adjust loan supply along both intensive and extensive margins. The lending contraction is larger for more capital-constrained banks and has significant real effects, especially for bank-dependent firms. |
| Keywords: | uncertainty; bank loans; trade finance; credit supply; trade war |
| JEL: | F34 F42 G21 |
| Date: | 2024–10–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedawp:99199 |
| By: | Susie McKenzie (The Treasury) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model to investigate the impacts of global shocks on four key New Zealand macroeconomic variables: gross domestic product (GDP), interest rates, the consumer price index (CPI), and the exchange rate, and also reports the forecast error variance decomposition. The model is used to assess New Zealand’s vulnerability to cyclical shocks in its major trading partners: China, the United States, and Australia. Results show that New Zealand’s GDP responds positively to positive GDP shocks from China and the world block, with effects that feed through the economy having an impact on price levels, interest rates and exchange rates. New Zealand’s CPI responds differently to shocks depending on the country of origin, and interest rates respond strongly to most foreign interest rate and foreign GDP shocks with persistent effects. The impact of most foreign shocks on New Zealand’s exchange rate cannot be accurately determined in the model developed in this paper. The analysis shows some of the risks New Zealand faces if it concentrates its trade too heavily on a small number of key economies, and provides a useful lens for thinking about the macroeconomic relationships between New Zealand and the rest of the world. |
| JEL: | E32 F41 F15 F44 |
| Date: | 2024–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nzt:nztans:an24/04 |
| By: | Fetzer, Thiemo (Warwick University & University of Bonn, Departments of Economics. Also affiliated or fellowed at Grantham Research Institute, ECONtribute, CEPR, NIESR, CESifo and STICERD); Lambert, Peter John (London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), Department of Economics. Also affiliated: Centre for Economic Performance (CEP), Programme on Innovation and Diffusion (POID)); Feld, Bennet (London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), Department of Economics); Garg, Prashant (Imperial College London, Department of Economics and Public Policy. Also affiliated with IFC) |
| Abstract: | This paper leverages generative AI to build a network structure over 5, 000 product nodes, where directed edges represent input-output relationships in production. We layout a two-step 'build-prune' approach using an ensemble of prompt-tuned generative AI classifications. The 'build' step provides an initial distribution of edge predictions, the 'prune' step then re-evaluates all edges. With our AI-generated Production Network (AIPNET) in toe, we document a host of shifts in the network position of products and countries during the 21st century. Finally, we study production network spillovers using the natural experiment presented by the 2017 blockade of Qatar. We find strong evidence of such spill-overs, suggestive of on-shoring of critical production. This descriptive and causal evidence demonstrates some of the many research possibilities opened up by our granular measurement of product linkages, including studies of on-shoring, industrial policy, and other recent shifts in global trade. |
| Keywords: | Supply-Chain Network Analysis, Large Language Models, On-shoring, industrial policy, Trade wars, Econometrics-of-LLMs JEL Classification: F14, F23, L16, F52, O25, N74, C81 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:733 |
| By: | Kendall, Alissa; Parés Olguín, Francisco |
| Abstract: | International second-hand vehicle (SHV) exports are a multi-billion-dollar market for the US and an integral process in removing older vehicles from the road and enabling a robust new vehicle market. Mexico is the largest importer of SHVs from the US. As the US rapidly increases electric vehicle (EV) sales to meet decarbonization targets for the transportation sector, EVs will be an increasing large fraction of SHVs. While the benefits of EV adoption are numerous, introducing a radically new technology such as EVs without responsive measures in second-hand market regions may lead to an unintended transfer of economic and environmental burdens, especially if waste EV batteries cannot be managed properly. This research undertook a battery material flow analysis, life cycle assessment of SHVs traded from the US to Mexico, and a qualitive analysis of environmental and transport justice implications of SHV trade. The research finds that SHVs disproportionately contribute to waste battery generation in Mexico, and that second-hand EVs are frequently retired early due to a lack of repairability. In terms of life cycle emissions, SH EVs still contribute to reduced GHG emissions and air pollution relative to internal combustion engine vehicles newly sold in Mexico, but at end-of-life, their batteries are being disposed of in landfills, rather than in recycling facilities. From a justice standpoint, coordination between the US and Mexico and anticipatory policies are needed to ensure that only EVs with sufficient remaining battery life are transferred between the US and Mexico, and that sufficient infrastructure exists to safely dispose of waste EV batteries in Mexico. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Business, Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Second-Hand vehicles, electric vehicles, LCA, battery recycling, critical battery minerals, LMICs, Mexico |
| Date: | 2024–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt7cf8785q |
| By: | GROS Daniel |
| Abstract: | Electronic circuitry has always be considered strategic. 40 years ago it was the dominant position of Japan that seemed to represent a threat to vital national security interests of the US. But, despite its perceived strategic importance, the global semiconductor market is rather small, only about 0.5% of world GDP – and is not a growth industry as this percentage has not increased over the last 20 years. There are many different types of chips that fulfill very different functions (memory, logic and discrete). It is the most advanced logic chips with the smallest nodes that have captured the attention of policy makers. However, this type is little needed in Europe. The security of supply argument for subsidizing fabs to produce these chips is thus weak. This contribution first analyses the key factors driving changes in the supply chain for chips over the last decades, which were mainly the migration of fabs to capital abundant countries in Asia and the increasing importance of software and design, that now account for over one half of the value of a finished chip. The global division of labor that has emerged is that the software comes from the US, the fabs are in Asia and Europe has a strong position in the machines to produce the most advanced (logic) chips. Semiconductors is one of the few industries in which China plays only a secondary role. Strengthening the EU presence in the chip ‘ecosystem’ requires addressing the fundamental weakness in support for software development and R&D. Support for the precision manufacturing needed for the advanced chip manufacturing machines would also be useful but would require an order of magnitude less than the tenths of billions of euro for fabs foreseen in the Chips Act. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc139558 |
| By: | Borjas, George J. (Harvard University); Breznau, Nate (German Institute for Adult Education (DIE)) |
| Abstract: | When studying policy-relevant topics, researchers' policy preferences may shape the design, execution, analysis, and interpretation of results. Detection of such bias is challenging because the research process itself is not normally part of a controlled experimental setting. Our analysis exploits a rare opportunity where 158 researchers working independently in 71 research teams participated in an experiment. After being surveyed about their position on immigration policy, they used the same data to answer the same well-defined empirical question: Does immigration affect the level of public support for social welfare programs? The researchers estimated 1, 253 alternative regression models, producing a frequency distribution of the measured impact ranging from strongly negative to strongly positive. We find that research teams composed of pro-immigration researchers estimated more positive impacts of immigration on public support for social programs, while anti-immigration research teams reported more negative estimates. Moreover, the methods used by teams with strong pro- or anti-immigration priors received lower "referee scores" from their peers in the experiment. These lower-rated models helped produce the different effects estimated by the teams at the tails of the immigration sentiment distribution. The underlying research design decisions are the mechanism through which ideology enters the production function for parameter estimates. |
| Keywords: | impact of immigration, social cohesion, meta analysis |
| JEL: | C90 I38 J69 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17561 |
| By: | Sallam, Hend; Christl, Michael |
| Abstract: | This study quantifies the direct average net fiscal impact (ANFI) of migration in Germany, taking into account both indirect taxes and in-kind benefits such as health and education spending. Using a status quo approach with data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) for 2018 and microsimulation techniques to impute both indirect taxes and in-kind benefits, our results show that migrants, especially first-generation migrants, have a more favorable net fiscal impact on average compared to natives. However, we demonstrate that this result is mainly driven by the favourable age structure of migrants. When controlling for demographic differences between these groups, we show that second-generation migrants contribute very similarly to natives to the German welfare state. Nevertheless, both natives and second-generation migrants, respectively, contribute more than first-generation migrants. These differences persist even when we do not account for indirect taxes and benefits-in-kind. |
| Keywords: | immigration, net fiscal impact, public finances, tax-benefit system |
| JEL: | F22 H24 H50 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1530 |
| By: | Ricardo Hausmann (Harvard's Growth Lab) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I argue that a focus on exports, both at the intensive margin (where existing products increase their volume), but especially at the extensive margin (where new products start being exported), can help countries figure out what policies to adopt in order to achieve sustained growth. I present five stylised facts about growth and its trends in the decades that followed the Washington Consensus. |
| Keywords: | Washington Consensus, Economic Complexity |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:231 |
| By: | Faaiqa Hartley; Sherwin Gabriel |
| Abstract: | The world has faced an increasing number of global shocks that have resulted in large and unpredictable changes in global prices, particularly of food. These increases, coupled with the negative impacts of shocks to economic growth, have had damaging effects on welfare, hunger, and diets. Future global price shocks are likely, whether spurred by geopolitical tensions, climatic extremes, or natural disasters. This paper assesses the distributional impact of food price shocks on households in South Africa using price increases during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war as a case study. |
| Keywords: | Computable general equilibrium, Microsimulation, Price shocks, Poverty, Food price |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2024-81 |