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on International Trade |
| By: | Hanna Adam (University of Bayreuth); Mario Larch (University of Bayreuth. CEPII, CESifo, ifo Institute, GEP); Jordi Paniagua (University of Valencia. Kellogg Institute, University of Notre Dame) |
| Abstract: | We quantify the economic impact of a potential secession of Catalonia from Spain. Using a novel dataset of trade flows between 17 Spanish sub-national regions and 142 countries, we estimate the effects of different levels of borders on trade flows and uncover heterogeneity in regional, national, and EU border effects. We use a general equilibrium analysis of trade with fiscal transfers to understand the consequences of a potential secession with political uncertainty. In counterfactual experiments, we impose new borders on Catalan regional and international trade, potentially within or outside the EU, resulting in a welfare decline for Catalonia and Spain. |
| Keywords: | international trade, regional trade, border effects, regional independence |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F14 H77 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eec:wpaper:2409 |
| By: | Charlotte Emlinger; Houssein Guimbard |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to assess how trade facilitation measures reduce the costs induced by non-tariff measures (NTMs). It focuses on the Authorized Economic Operator (AEO) certification, a firm-level trade facilitation measure defined by the World Customs Organization. This status allows firms to benefit from customs simplifications at the border, reduced physical and document-based controls, and priority treatment. We use an original and exhaustive dataset of French firms certified as AEO by the European Customs, merged with firm level trade from the French Customs. Our empirical strategy is to compare the export structure of firms before and after their certification to see whether the impact of NTMs on trade can be reduced by trade facilitation measures. Our results show that the AEO status enhances trade, but only when facing NTMs in the destination market. This confirms that some of the trade costs generated by NTMs are administrative in nature and can be reduced by pre-certifying firms. Our conclusion is informative about the kind of trade cost reductions that could be achieved by trade agreements that go beyond tariff reductions, without hindering the level of actual regulation. |
| Keywords: | Trade Facilitation;Customs Certification;Non-tariff-Measures |
| JEL: | F14 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2024-11 |
| By: | Haishi Li (The University of Hong Kong); Zhi Li (The Chinese University of Hong Kong); Ziho Park (National Taiwan University); Yulin Wang (The University of Hong Kong); Jing Wu (The Chinese University of Hong Kong) |
| Abstract: | We study how firms in neutral countries adjusted supply chains to Western sanctions on Russia. Firms with headquarters in sanctioning countries (sanctioning MNEs) reduced sanctioned product exports to Russia, showing MNEs' global influence. However, domestic firms in neutral countries increased sanctioned exports, weakening sanctions. Firms exporting more to sanctioning countries complied more, while those sourcing more inputs rerouted sanctioned products to Russia. Sanctioning MNEs expanded exports to both sanctioning and Russia-friendly countries, blending compliance and evasion. Financial sanctions led sanctioning MNEs to reduce imports from Russia in risky sectors. To improve sanctions, stronger secondary sanctions and MNE involvement are essential. |
| Keywords: | Global Supply Chains; Geopolitical Risk; International Conflict |
| JEL: | F14 F63 O19 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:net:wpaper:2401 |
| By: | Gaygysyz Ashyrov; Nicolas Gavoille; Kjetil Haukås; Rasmus Bøgh Holmen; Jaan Masso |
| Abstract: | While attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) has been at the core of the economic policy of many countries since the 1980s, existing evidence of a causal foreign ownership effect on firm-level productivity is mixed. This paper revisits the productivity effect of foreign takeovers on domestic firms. Leveraging administrative firm-level data from Estonia, Latvia and Norway, we shed light on the following key questions: 1) Does the magnitude of the effect of foreign ownership depend on the host country's level of development?; 2) Does spatial, cultural, and economic proximity between the sending and receiving countries play a role in the foreign ownership effect?; and 3) To what extent are these effects heterogeneous across industries? By implementing a propensity score matching procedure, combined with a difference-in-differences approach, our results indicate that the productivity effect of foreign ownership greatly varies across host countries, sectors and the region of origin for the FDI. We document an overall positive but heterogeneous effect of foreign acquisitions on domestic firms, with a stronger productivity boost in Estonia and Latvia than in Norway. The effects in each country are concentrated on FDI from particular regions and specific economic sectors. These results suggest that the positive effect of FDI on receiving companies is conditional on both the characteristics of the investor and the acquisition target. |
| Keywords: | Productivity, foreign direct investment, foreign ownership, Northern Europe |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtk:febawb:148 |
| By: | Kevin Lefebvre; Pauline Wibaux |
| Abstract: | Faced with growing competition and geopolitical tensions, major economies worry about the risks associated with over-reliance on the Chinese economy. Using detailed product-level import data, we compare both large countries’ trade dependencies and the extent to which they supply their trading partners with products they depend on. China stands out for its low number of dependent products. While the United States and the European Union have a similar number of trade dependencies, this number is larger for Japan. The sources of dependencies are common to all four countries, and lie in four sectors: chemicals, electronics, pharmaceuticals and the steel industry. The EU is heavily exposed to China: 61% of its import dependencies come from that country. This potential vulnerability is partially offset by the fact that the EU is China’s leading supplier for a fourth of its 47 import-dependent products. China is three times as exposed to the EU as it is to the US. The EU dependence on China increased between 2019 and 2022 owing to both an increase in the number of European dependencies on China and a reduction in the number of Chinese dependencies on the EU. |
| Keywords: | Import Dependencies;Geo-economics;European Union |
| JEL: | F5 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepipb:2024-47 |
| By: | Mathias Juust; Urmas Varblane |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the resources and capabilities that determine firm-level adjustments after a sudden unexpected closure of a major export market. We focus on the effects of the 2014 Russian embargo on Western food exporters using the example of Estonian firms. The paper applies a novel multimethod approach consisting of Study I quantifying the embargo effect on the exports of all embargoed firms, and Study II conducting a multiple case study into three dairy exporters highly affected by the embargo. Study I employs a difference-in-difference model with matched embargoed firms as treatment. Study II builds on extensive document analysis that serves as input for interviews with the CEOs of the sample dairy firms. We find that pre-shock productivity is on average a good predictor of post-shock firm resilience (Study I), however, we specify that the key firm-level resources and capabilities necessary for successful post-shock adjustments might not be reflected in the standard quantitative productivity level measures (Study II). We conclude that key firm-level resources and capabilities for embargo-resilience are the quality of exporting experience, competitive product-market matching, absorptive capacity, and managerial vision and empowerment. |
| Keywords: | negative export shock, embargo, firm-level capabilities, trade barriers, trade diversion, trade policy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtk:febawb:145 |
| By: | Moonhee Cho (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Hyungseok Joo (University of Surrey) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of sovereign debt default on foreign direct investment (FDI) transactions by US firms into Argentina following the Argentine sovereign default in 2019–20. Using the synthetic control approach, we find that the number of FDI transactions decreased by approximately 60% after the Argentine default with a particularly pronounced decline in the non-manufacturing sector. By examining the changes in the number of transactions, we provide a more precise picture of the cost of sovereign default, capturing the FDI activity of small firms better. |
| JEL: | F13 F21 F34 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sur:surrec:0324 |
| By: | Magdalena Olczyk; Marjan Petreski |
| Abstract: | This study explores the differential impacts of global value chain (GVC) participation on foreign direct investment (FDI)-related job creation in EU-27, emphasizing the role of sector-specific and regional factors. The study is based on a rich set of project-level data on FDI-generated jobs. It utilizes a labor demand function estimated through GMM estimator to account for endogeneity. Results indicate that forward GVC participation significantly boosts FDI-related job creation by enhancing domestic value-added and production capacity. However, this effect is moderated by sector-specific characteristics such as productivity or wages. Conversely, backward GVC participation, characterized by reliance on foreign inputs, generally reduces FDI-generated jobs due to lower domestic labor requirements and diminished competitiveness. Despite this, the negative impact of backward GVC participation on employment becomes less significant when regional diversification is considered, highlighting the importance of regional factors like infrastructure and skilled labor. The study also finds that the impact of GVC participation on employment varies with EU membership status and sectoral characteristics, with old EU member states and high-tech sectors benefiting more from forward GVC integration. In contrast, new EU member states and low-tech sectors face greater challenges, particularly with backward GVC participation. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.04160 |
| By: | Alvaro Silva (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies inflation in small open economies with production networks. I show that the production network alters the elasticity of the consumer price index (CPI) to changes in sectoral technology, factor prices, and import prices. Sectors can import and export directly but also indirectly through domestic intermediate inputs. Indirect exporting dampens the inflationary pressure from domestic forces, while indirect importing increases the inflation sensitivity to import price changes. Computing these CPI elasticities requires knowledge of the production network structure as these do not coincide with typical sufficient statistics used in the literature, such as sectoral sales-to-GDP ratios, factor shares, or imported consumption shares. Using input-output tables, I provide empirical evidence that adjusting CPI elasticities for indirect exports and imports matters quantitatively for small open economies. I use the model to illustrate the importance of production networks during the recent COVID-19 inflation in Chile and the United Kingdom. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.00705 |
| By: | Gergely Hudecz; Alexandre Lauwers; Yasin Mimir; Graciela Schiliuk |
| Abstract: | Geoeconomic fragmentation is on the rise amidst heightened geopolitical tensions and a surge in inward-looking policies to strengthen economic and national security. Focusing on trade and capital flows, this paper takes a closer look at the implications of geoeconomic fragmentation for the ASEAN+3 and euro area regions, respectively. Both regions exhibit high degrees of trade openness that expose them to repercussions from geoeconomic fragmentation. Our analysis shows that overall ASEAN+3 trade values remain stable, but trade patterns have shifted. While China's exports have been affected by trade tensions with the United States, ASEAN exports have benefited from the region’s “connector” role. From the European perspective, we document an increase in the euro area’s financial exposures to geopolitically distant countries over the last two decades, and our analysis points to the vulnerability of capital flows to geopolitical risks. Regional financing arrangements should stand ready to support members as they navigate the risks of geoeconomic fragmentation, adapting tools and policies as necessary in line with their mandates. This paper is prepared jointly by staff from AMRO and the ESM. |
| Date: | 2024–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stm:dpaper:23 |
| By: | Brian D. Varian |
| Abstract: | Economic historians have identified Victoria's McCulloch Tariff of 1866 as the genesis of Australian protection of manufacturing—a trade-policy regime that was to persist until the latetwentieth century. The McCulloch Tariff imposed 10 per cent duties on a range of manufactured imports; this range was further extended by the closely following Customs Act of 1867. Victoria's pathbreaking protectionist legislation of 1866–7 has, until now, escaped any direct cliometric assessment of its consequences. This paper relies on what little industryspecific data are available for Victoria in this period: annual data on the number of manufactories in operation in the years preceding and following the policy change. Following a difference-in-differences approach, this study finds no statistically significant association between the imposition of the 10 per cent duties and the number of manufactories. This finding is irrespective of changes in the regression sample, definition of an untreated industry, and estimation method used. The McCulloch Tariff is better remembered for the trajectory on which it placed Victorian economic policy. |
| Keywords: | Australia, manufacturing, protectionism, tariffs, trade policy, Victoria |
| JEL: | F13 N67 N77 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auu:hpaper:124 |
| By: | Lorenzo Esposito (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy - Banca d’Italia, Milano, Italy); Ettore Giuseppe Gatti (DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy); Giuseppe Mastromatteo (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy) |
| Abstract: | In this work we discuss how the development of geopolitical confrontation between Eastern and Western blocs will affect globalization after the end of the hyper-globalization era. The debate on these issues is developing by the day and the perspective of an increasingly fragmented world is more and more real. However, global supply chains and global financial markets and flows are not going to disappear overnight. What is developing is a new form of globalization, with also a new set-up in the relationship between the State and large corporations. This work is divided in two parts. The first deals with the trade dimension, where we discuss the changing geometry of international trade and the connection between growth and the balance of payments; then we analyse what are the weak spots of the two blocs and the resulting strategies. The second part deepens the military dimension that is growingly mixed up with economic issues. We discuss some general aspects of military economics, the US military industrial base and their military-entertainment complex; then we discuss the equivalent base in Europe and, finally, how the World War II succeeded in rapidly and totally overhaul US economy as an example for Europe in the next future. In the conclusions, we discuss the main characteristics of the China-United States relationship and the three policies that must be blocked as soon as possible to prevent the sliding towards a new world war. |
| Keywords: | globalization, friendshoring, international trade, military expenses |
| JEL: | F20 F50 H56 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie5:dipe0040 |
| By: | Oualid MECHTI (UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal]); Khadija EL ISSAOUI (UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal]) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the short-and long-term impact of institutional quality on FDI inflows in 31 African middle-income countries over the period 2002-2022 using the ARDL method with PMG. We constructed a synthetic index of institutional quality using the principal component analysis method in order to best reproduce the variance of the six kaufman-kray governance indicators. The results show that, in the short term, institutional quality has no effect on FDI inflows, unlike the economic environment, which has an effect in both the short and long term. On the other hand, institutional quality plays a key role in attracting foreign capital in the long term, more so than the economic environment. In fact, a one-percentage point increase in 'institutional quality' generates a 1, 068% increase in 'FDI flows'. However, the results of the individual effect of the six governance indicators reveal the importance of these indicators, with a significant and positive coefficient, except for the 'capacity to make demands and express oneself' indicator, which has a negative effect. |
| Abstract: | Cet article analyse l'impact à court et à long terme de la qualité institutionnelle sur les flux entrants des IDE dans 31 pays africains à revenu intermédiaire au cours de la période 2002-2022 en utilisant la méthode ARDL avec PMG. Nous avons construit un indice synthétique de la qualité institutionnelle à l'aide de la méthode analyse en composante principale afin de reproduire au mieux la variance des six indicateurs de la gouvernance de kaufman-kray. Les résultats révèlent qu'à court terme, la qualité institutionnelle n'exerce aucun effet sur les entrées d'IDE, contrairement à l'environnement économique qui agit à la fois à court et long terme. En revanche, la qualité institutionnelle joue un rôle primordial dans l'attractivité des capitaux étrangers à long terme, plus que l'environnement économique. En effet, une augmentation d'un point de pourcentage de «la qualité institutionnelle» engendre une hausse de 1.068% des «flux d'IDE». Cependant, les résultats de l'effet individuel des six indicateurs de la gouvernance, il se révèle l'importance de ces indicateurs, avec un coefficient significatif et positif, sauf pour l'indicateur «capacité revendicative et d'expression», qui a un effet négatif. |
| Keywords: | African middle-income countries FDI flows institutional quality ARDL Pays africains à revenu intermédiaire flux d'IDE qualité institutionnelle ARDL, African middle-income countries, FDI flows, institutional quality, ARDL Pays africains à revenu intermédiaire, flux d'IDE, qualité institutionnelle, ARDL |
| Date: | 2024–09–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04698139 |
| By: | Anton A. Cheremukhin; Sewon Hur; Ron Mau; Karel Mertens; Alexander W. Richter; Xiaoqing Zhou |
| Abstract: | The U.S. experienced an extraordinary postpandemic surge in unauthorized immigration. This paper combines administrative data on border encounters and immigration court records with household survey data to document two new facts about these immigrants: They tend to be hand-to-mouth consumers and low-skilled workers that complement the existing workforce. We build these features into a model with capital, household heterogeneity and population growth to study the inflationary effects of this episode. Contrary to the popular view, we find little effect on inflation, as the increase in supply was largely offset by an increase in demand. |
| Keywords: | immigration; population growth; inflation; skills; hand-to-mouth |
| JEL: | E21 E22 E31 F22 J11 J15 |
| Date: | 2024–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:98919 |
| By: | César Ducruet (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); In Joo Yoon (KMI - Korea Maritime Institute - Korea Maritime Institute) |
| Abstract: | The North Korean economy is experiencing a deepening economic and political crisis since the early 1990s. Although North Korea is not commonly seen as a shipping nation, its major cities are coastal, and it hosts nine international trading ports. However, little is known about the role of maritime transport in its development. This article uses vessel movement data to reconstitute the maritime network linking North Korean ports and other ports, over the period 1977-2021. Besides the drastic connectivity loss, main results conclude about a limited role of maritime transport in economic development, except for its participation to China's increasing grip on North Korea. This research brings new knowledge about North Korea and contributes to advance maritime network studies in general. |
| Keywords: | multivariate analysis, international trade, maritime connectivity, network analysis |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04689246 |
| By: | Rhea Ravenna Sohst; Alessio Fusco; Philippe Van Kerm |
| Abstract: | We provide evidence on the relative differences in the disposable incomes of native and foreign-born households in 21 European countries using EU-SILC data for 2008, 2013 and 2018. Using influence function regression, we derive the contribution of foreign-born households to host country indicators of income inequality and polarization. Individuals living in foreign-born households tend to be over-represented in the lower tails of the income distribution. Although there is heterogeneity in the incomes of foreign-born households, their generally disadvantaged positions tend to push national income inequality upward. This pattern persists in many countries, albeit mitigated in magnitude, when we account for the differences in socio-demographic characteristics. The effect on the Foster-Wolfson index of polarization is more mixed, with immigrants in many countries showing no significant contribution to polarization. Using tools adapted from meta-analysis, we find a strong association between welfare regimes and the contribution of immigrant households to inequality and polarization. |
| Keywords: | migration; inequality; Europe; bi-polarization; EU-SILC; RIF regressions; meta-analysis |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irs:cepswp:2024-06 |
| By: | Hung Tran |
| Abstract: | The Global South features prominently in the context of geopolitical rivalry and efforts by developing countries to change the current international economic and financial architecture. While there are questions about whether some countries—such as China or Russia—should be considered parts of the Global South (GS), it is obvious that Africa is at the center of the group. Different aspects of Africa—its potential, its reality, and its efforts to realize its potential—embody the challenges and the prospects of the GS in general. More specifically, the difficulties Africa faces, how it will deal with them, its progress or lack of progress, and the changes it would like to see in the current international economic and financial system to help it overcome the obstacles to development, help make clear what the GS is all about. Africa’s desirable action plan constitutes a comprehensive agenda GS countries can rally around. On the other hand, the various fault lines inherent in Africa typify the lack of cohesiveness that has kept the GS from speaking with one voice, able to pull its weight in international fora. Instead, Africa, and similarly the GS, have been viewed by major powers as arenas of competition for influence. As such, how Africa deals with these problems will offer benchmarks to judge how the GS has progressed. In other words, Africa embodies the agenda of the GS; its progress drives that of the GS. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb32-24 |
| By: | Ivan Savchuk (GC (UMR_8504) - Géographie-cités - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité) |
| Abstract: | The question of the impact of positive radical transformations of small ports in large ports due to the war is not well studied in transport geography. An analysis of the theoretical approach to the positive impact of the development of small ports during a war has enabled me to distinguish two variants of these transformations – a rapid increase in goods traffic and the formation a naval base ultraperipheral in a small port. In both cases, there are the preliminary conditions to achieve them: the location on the seafront to escape the adversary's effective blockade, direct access to a sea for have free relations with the world, the existence of rail line for goods traffic. Ukrainian ports on the Danube are a good example, becoming the leading ports in terms of traffic in 2022. Local ports in the ultra-periphery were radically transformed in the big ports. Local ports in the ultra-periphery. Before the Russian invasion of 2022, the Ukrainian Danube ports were as very small ports. After the collapse of the communist system, they lost much of their traffic and were deprived of rail access. The soviet Odessa railway was divided. One part came under the control of the self-proclaimed Republic of Transnistria, other was formed Moldavian national railway company and other part was integrated in Odessa regional railway of Ukrainian national railway company – Ukrzaliznytsya. This has since prevented the transport of goods from these ports. There has also been a drastic reduction in the amount of goods that were transported by river to the Danube countries during the Soviet era. As a result, traffic in Ukrainian Danube ports ranks last among the ports of the independent period. What's more, in 2006 Moldova managed to create a small port on the Danube – Giurgiulești. The Ukrainian Danube ports thus have a competitor that absorbs the majority of Moldovan goods. Before 2022, goods were transported by local roads. Only one road connected the Ukrainian Danube ports to the national network. However, part of this motorway crosses Moldovan territory, which sometimes causes problems with traffic control and the fight against smuggling. Gateways to the world during the blockade. The role of these ports changed radically after the start of the Russian invasion in 2022. They became Ukraine's only window to the world. This was due to their favorable location on the cross-border river linking the Ukrainian ports with the Romanian port of Constanţa. Ukraine and Moldova have signed an agreement to reactivate rail freight traffic on the border line between the two countries (2022), which has been reconstructed by Ukrzaliznytsya. As a result, new terminals and silos have been built or are under construction, and the traffic in the Danube ports increased rapidly. Since 2022, small ports have become the main sea ports of the country as a result of the Russian invasion. More than half of grain exports in 2022 were loaded in the ports of the Great Odessa, and a quarter of in the Danube ports. New war's logistics chains have created in new conditions for port operations in Ukraine. For this reason, the operators must radically change their logistics. A regular 50-container train has been launched between Constanţa (Romania) and Reni (Ukraine) in 2022. Maersk has launched new container barge services from Constanța to Reni in 2023, one via the Danube Canal and the other in Romanian territorial waters. United Global Logistics has launched a container vessel service between Constanţa and Izmail in 2022. During the naval blockade, only Viking Alliance container terminal in the port of Reni continues to operate. The port of Constanța will become very important for Ukraine. The uncertain future. The radical changes in the role of the three Ukrainian Danube ports – Reni, Izmail and Ust-Dunaysk – as a result of the actual situation are a good example of contradictory developments: large-scale negative processes have a positive effect at the local level. But what will happen after the war: will these ports maintain the same level of traffic as during the war, or will it return to the previous state? |
| Abstract: | Deux facteurs peuvent avoir une influence positive sur le développement des petits ports pendant une guerre, l'augmentation rapide du trafic des marchandises et la formation d'une base navale. Dans les deux cas, des conditions préliminaires sont nécessaires : une localisation ultrapériphérique sur la façade maritime, un accès direct à mer libre, la présence d'un accès ferroviaire. Les ports ukrainiens du Danube avaient, avant l'invasion russe de 2022, une fonction de ports locaux. En raison de la chute de système soviétique ils avaient perdu une grande partie de leur trafic et de ports moyens ils se sont transformés en petits ports. En effet, la fragmentation du chemin de fer soviétique de la région d'Odessa pénalise le transport des marchandises envoyées précédemment vers ces ports. Jusqu'en 2022, les marchandises étaient acheminées en général par la route. Un seul axe routier reliait les ports ukrainiens du Danube au réseau national, avec un tronçon de cette route traversant le territoire moldave, ce qui crée de temps en temps des problèmes de contrôle de circulation et de lutte contre la contrebande. Le rôle de ces ports a été radicalement bouleversé après l'introduction du blocus de la façade maritime de l'Ukraine en 2022. Ils sont devenus les portes d'accès au monde du pays grâce à leur localisation sur le fleuve transfrontalier. L'Ukraine et la Moldavie ont signé le 25.03.2022 un accord de réactivation de la circulation en Transdanubie sur la ligne ferroviaire transfrontalière qui, de plus, a été reconstruite en 2022. Ceci a entraîné une augmentation rapide du trafic et de nouveaux terminaux ont été construits ou sont en chantier dans les ports du Danube. Autre particularité à noter : le port d'Ust-Dunaysk a été privatisé, et c'est le premier cas en Ukraine. Les changements radicaux du rôle des trois ports ukrainiens du Danube (Reni, Izmail, Ust-Dunaysk) à cause de la guerre, sont un bon exemple de transformations contradictoires : les processus négatifs au niveau national provoquent au niveau local un impact positif. La question est néanmoins posée de l'après-guerre : ces ports conserveront-ils des trafics aussi élevés ou retourneront-ils à la situation antérieure ? Tous dépendent de l'activité militaire et de l'efficacité de la défense pour garantir la libre circulation des navires de commerce dans les eaux territoriales de l'Ukraine en mer Noire |
| Keywords: | Ust-Dunaysk, small port, war, Russian invasion, Ukraine, geopolitics, Transdanubia, Reni, Izmail, Petit port, guerre, invasion russe, géopolitique, Transdanubie |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04680042 |
| By: | Jacopo Bassetto; Giuseppe Ippedico |
| Abstract: | Brain drain is a key policy concern for many countries. In this paper we study whether tax incentives are an effective policy to attract high-skilled expatriates back to their home country, exploiting a generous income tax break for Italian returnees. Using administrative data and a Triple Differences design, we find that eligible individuals are 27% more likely to return to Italy. Additionally, we uncover significant effects throughout the wage distribution, revealing that tax-induced migration is a broad phenomenon beyond top earners. A cost-benefit analysis shows that the tax scheme can pay for itself by targeting young high-skilled individuals. |
| Keywords: | tax incentives, return migration, wage distribution |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notgep:2024-05 |
| By: | Giovanni Federico; Andrea Incerpi |
| Abstract: | The accuracy of Italy’s current account series in the Liberal Age has been debated since ISTAT reconstruction in 1957, resulting in a few isolated attempts to shed lights on the topic. The aim of the paper is to provide a new estimate for the main components of the current account, that is trade balance and invisibles, taking into account some possible corrections and new methodologies to overcome the limited availability of data. Results suggest to deepen the analysis of post-Unification Italy looking to different perspectives |
| Keywords: | Italy, current account, post-Unification |
| JEL: | N13 N73 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usi:wpaper:911 |
| By: | Antonella Angelini (University of Pisa); Al-Esia Zena (University of Bath); Yorgancioglu Ayse (University of Bath); Tim Bartley (Stockholm University); Nadia Bernaz (Wageningen University); Flaviano Bianchini (Source International); Flora Panna Biro (University of Venice); Ignas Bruder (Hertie School); Rachele Cavara (University of Venice); Luciana Oranges Cezarino (University of Venice); Andrew Crane (University of Bath); Elisa Giuliani (University of Pisa); Maria-Therese Gustafsson (Stockholm University); Tamara Horbachevska (Yaroslav Mudryi National Law University); Iatridis Kostas (University of Bath); Chiara Macchi (Wageningen University); Johanna Mair (Hertie School); Sébastien Mena (Hertie School); Anna Moretti (University of Venice); John Murray (Stockholm University); Federica Nieri (University of Pisa); Andjela Pavlovic (University of Venice); Francesco Rullani (University of Venice); Olena Uvarova (Yaroslav Mudryi National Law University); Francesco Zirpoli (University of Venice) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this working paper is to conduct a comprehensive review of existing literature that explores the relationship between business organizations and democracy. This review draws from various fields, including management, business ethics, sociology, international law, and other relevant disciplines for this Project and has several objectives. Firstly, it aims to provide insight into prior research on how democratic institutions regulate economic actors and how these actors, particularly large multinational corporations (MNCs), resist such regulation. Additionally, it examines how these economic actors develop behaviors and economic models that pose challenges to democratic governance, such as business-related human rights violations. In the initial part of the review, we delve into the historical and contemporary aspects of the relationship between business and democracy. Furthermore, the report explores how companies can contribute to shaping a more democratic future by addressing gaps in governance, especially in cases where populist governments fail to protect the rights of their citizens. It also considers the development of alternative business models, such as social enterprises and cross-sector partnerships. Moreover, it looks into how businesses can actively engage in democratic governance and promote principles of participation. The final section of the working paper involves a bibliometric analysis, including co-authorship, co-citation, and keyword co-occurrence maps. This analysis is based on key references used by team members in their literature reviews and is designed to examine the connections that exist among various strands of research that support the research questions of the Rebalance Project. |
| Keywords: | Human Rights, Lobbying, Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), Democratization, Democratic Processes, Multinational Enterprises, Democratic Institutions |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vnm:wpdman:203 |
| By: | Roth, Felix |
| Abstract: | This paper starts with brief introductory remarks, providing the underpinning of the academic argument and a summary statement of its main findings. It then elaborates on the evolution of existing cryptocurrencies' market capitalization from 2009 until 2022. Third, the paper investigates the economic nature of cryptocurrencies and discusses whether they are money. Fourth, it will discuss the direct and indirect impact of cryptocurrencies on financial markets and global trade. Fifth, the paper offers two main conclusions. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:uhhhdp:17 |
| By: | Amaresh K Tiwari |
| Abstract: | Using the universe of firms in Estonia, we study the implications of imports-led and FDI- facilitated automation for productivity and factor shares of tasks and value-added. First, in contrast to the findings for developed economies, we find that the aggregate labour share of value-added for automation adopting firms is higher than that for non-adopters, and has grown, among others, through the reallocation of economic activities towards adopting firms. Second, the aggregate total factor productivity of the adopters concurrently grew faster than that of the non-adopters. Third, from the micro-level study, we find that the estimated labour share of tasks has declined over time among the adopting firms and is lowest in firms that automate frequently, where the frequency of automation provides rich information on firm automation characteristics. The study emphasizes international spillovers and the creation of productive new jobs by multinational adopters among the reasons for the increase in the labour share of value-added for adopters, even as their labour share of tasks declined. Fourth, the productivity impact of automation is heterogeneous: (a) firms that automate regularly, (b) multinational adopters, and (c) firms that realize complementarities between automation and innovative management practices are among the most productive adopters. The latter establishes that the innovative management practices instituted by adopters are those that help discover and facilitate complementarities be- tween automation and human labour. |
| Keywords: | Imports-Led Automation, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Productivity, Labour Share, Factor Task Content of Production, Complementarities |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtk:febawb:144 |
| By: | Catherine Leining (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Sasha Maher (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Hannah Kotula (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | Cooperation between countries is key to avoiding the most severe impacts of climate change. Under current policies, the world will face temperatures of 3oC above pre-industrial levels by 2100. Developing countries hold three quarters of the cost-effective mitigation needed in 2030 under 1.5oC pathways, but currently lack the capability to make it happen and historically have contributed least to the problem. If higher- and lower-income countries fail to work together to unlock that mitigation, the world will lock in dangerous climate change. Providing conventional climate finance to lower-income countries is crucial but is not the only option – nor has it been sufficient so far. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; emissions trading; carbon markets; Paris Agreement; New Zealand; Article 6; cooperation |
| JEL: | Q54 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtu:wpaper:24_54 |
| By: | Gilles Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | Since October 2023, the Middle East has once again experienced a dramatic episode in its history, with an Israeli-Palestinian conflict following a bloody terrorist attack on Israeli territory by 3, 000 Hamas assailants. At the end of 2023, the Gaza Strip, at the heart of violent fighting, was experiencing a catastrophic situation for its population, leading many NGOs to speak of a major humanitarian crisis. While this is an essential issue, it should not conceal the possibility of a logistical and environmental crisis. This research note highlights the potential impacts of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, pointing out that they are most often common to all military conflicts. However, a few weeks after the October 2023 terrorist attack, the logistical crisis in global supply chains has been averted, while the environmental crisis is inevitable for the Gaza Strip. |
| Keywords: | environment, Gaza Strip, global supply chains, logistics, military conflict, terrorism, war damage |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04696631 |
| By: | Mariam Camarero (University Jaume I and INTECO); Josep Lluís Carrión-i-Silvestre (University of Barcelona and AQR-IREA); Cecilio Tamarit (University of Valencia and INTECO) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the determinants of external imbalances for a group of 26 developed and emerging countries over the period 1972-2021. In addition to traditional factors, the model incorporates the impact of external imbalances in third countries. The empirical evidence highlights the importance of accounting for parameter instabilities in modeling external imbalances, with countries exhibiting heterogeneous behavior in terms of the estimated break dates. The results underscore the critical role of external drivers, such as oil shocks, and the growing influence of third-country imbalances in an increasingly globalized world. Additionally, demographic trends emerge as a significant long-run internal driver. Finally, the paper calculates regime-specific short-run multipliers. |
| Keywords: | current account, global factors, breaks, dynamic multipliers |
| JEL: | F02 F32 C32 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eec:wpaper:2410 |
| By: | Rabah Arezki (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The volume is aimed at fostering our understanding of the shifting environment for resource rich countries impacted by radical transformations linked to climate change, technology and geopolitics. On the climate change front, efforts by the international community to achieve net zero emissions have launched an ambitious but uneven energy transition away from fossil fuels leading to both potential losers and winners. Among the potential winners are the resource rich countries endowed with minerals critical for the energy transition. On the technology front, in addition the decarbonization process, digitalization will also raise the demand for critical minerals and (hopefully cleaner) energy in extraordinary ways. On the geopolitical front, the race between superpowers to access critical materials and energy resources to power the technological transformations is not only driving demand for these resources but also potential (geo-)political realignment of resource rich countries vis-à-vis super-powers. The volume also explores ways in which policies can avoid a repeat of past mistakes in the management of natural resources which contributed to the coining of the phrase "resource curse' to describe the paradox that resource dependent countries were performing poorer than others. The new boom in resources should this time serve to promote both an ethical, sustainable and inclusive development. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Natural resource, Geopolitics |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04703672 |