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on International Trade |
| By: | Immaculada Martinez-Zarzoso; Ana Maria Santacreu |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of cross-border patenting on the margins of international trade using disaggregated data on international patenting and trade flows. We develop a theoretical framework of trade and firms' patenting decisions that motivates our empirical analysis. The main results reveal that cross-border patenting has a larger effect on the extensive margin of trade compared to the intensive margin. This finding suggests that firms tend to seek patent protection in international markets prior to entering those markets with new products, rather than with their existing products. |
| Keywords: | cross-border patents; gravity model; margins of trade; trade agreements |
| JEL: | F63 O14 O33 O34 |
| Date: | 2024–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:98864 |
| By: | JaeBin Ahn (International Monetry Fund); Shekhar Aiyar (National Council of Applied Economic Research, Delhi); Andrea F. Presbitero (International Monetry Fund) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides cross-country firm-level evidence on productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI), separately for greenfield FDI and cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As). The granularity of bilateral sector-level FDI datasets allows for addressing possible endogeneity issues by applying a two-step approach whereby an exogenous FDI measure is constructed from a gravity-type regression of bilateral FDI flows. When looking at the effects of greenfield investments on firm labor productivity we find: i) positive intraindustry spillover effects for firms located in advanced countries, and ii) positive backward spillover effects for firms located in emerging and developing countries. These spillovers are driven entirely by FDI from advanced countries. The results from cross-border M&As are noisier, with weakly suggestive evidence for positive intra-industry spillovers in advanced countries but negative backward spillovers in emerging markets and developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Foreign direct investment; Cross-border M&A; Intra-industry spillovers; Backward spillovers; Forward spillovers |
| JEL: | F14 F21 F23 F60 |
| Date: | 2024–05–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:172 |
| By: | Owens, Jeffrey; Wamuyu, Ruth |
| Abstract: | The international tax framework has undergone several changes that present constraints to the use of tax incentives. This Perspective highlights these constraints and explores the potential opportunities, beyond the corporate tax realm, available to countries to attract foreign direct investment. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:colfdi:302797 |
| By: | Jiao, Yang (Singapore Management University); Kwon, Ohyun (Drexel University); Lee, Saiah (Ulsan National Institute of Science & Technology) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the internationalization of Renminbi (IoR) since 2006 by examining its increased utilization among Korean exporters to China. Employing proprietary data fromKorean customs, which includes detailed invoicing information, our analysis reveals that products invoiced, either fully or partially, in RMB have experienced more rapid export growth. Furthermore, firms adopting RMB invoicing also exhibit faster export growth to China after controlling for relevant observables. Our findings remain robust when employing an instrumental variable approach to address potential endogeneity concerns. With the help of a currency invoicing model that demonstrates different impact channels, we show that the increased trade volume is due to Chinese importers facing lower currency costs when purchasing RMB-invoiced products compared to USD-invoiced products. |
| Keywords: | RMB internalization; invoicing currency; international trade |
| JEL: | D22 F14 F31 |
| Date: | 2024–09–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:drxlwp:2024_013 |
| By: | Catherine Casanova; Eugenio Cerutti; Swapan-Kumar Pradhan |
| Abstract: | While Chinese banks have become the top cross-border lender to EMDEs, their expansion has slowed recently, both in terms of volume and market share. Also, the strong correlation of China’s bilateral trade and its banks’ cross-border lending has weakened, while during 2020-22 lending became more positively correlated with FDI. In our paper, we analyse these patterns and we explore the role of borrower risk variables and foreign policies. Our findings show that, although the shifting correlation from trade to FDI is a general EMDE phenomenon, China’s Belt and Road Initiative reinforces it. By contrast, borrowers that potentially benefit from geoeconomic fragmentation do not display stronger FDI-lending relationships. We also find that Chinese banks exhibit different levels of risk tolerance relative to other bank nationalities as borrower country risk variables are positively correlated with Chinese banks’ market shares, but not with their amounts of cross-border lending. |
| Keywords: | cross-border lending, chinese banks, trade, FDI, borrower indebtedness, pandemic, sanctions, geoeconomic fragmentation |
| JEL: | F34 F36 F65 G21 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1213 |
| By: | Warwick J. McKibbin (Peterson Institute for International Economics; Australian National University); Megan Hogan (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Marcus Noland (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores policies promoted by former president and now candidate Donald Trump that would potentially affect the global economy. We focus on immigration policy, trade, and erosion of the Federal Reserve Board's political independence. Each policy has differing macroeconomic and sectoral impacts on the United States and other countries. We find, however, that all the policies examined cause a decline in US production and employment, especially in trade-exposed sectors such as manufacturing and agriculture, as well as higher US inflation. The trade policies do little to improve the US trade balance; however, the erosion of Fed independence does so by causing capital outflows, a significant depreciation of the dollar, and higher unemployment toward the end of 2028, which worsen American living standards. Scenarios combining individual policies show that the changes cause a large inflationary impulse and a significant loss of employment (particularly in manufacturing and agriculture) in the US economy. The negative impact of a contraction in global trade is significant for countries that trade with the United States the most. The adverse effect is offset for some economies by the positive effects of an inflow of foreign capital that would otherwise have gone into the US economy. An online dashboard contains a full set of macroeconomic and sectoral results for all countries. The Peterson Institute for International Economics has no partisan goal in publishing this research. Our concerns are about the policies, not the candidate. Our objective is to educate policymakers and the public about the effects these policies would have on Americans and other people around the world. |
| Keywords: | trade policy, migration, deportations, central bank independence, China, Trump |
| JEL: | F1 F13 F17 F22 F37 E58 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp24-20 |
| By: | Brian Pustilnik |
| Abstract: | The welfare effects of trade policy are shaped by the outcomes of imports reallocation and price changes. In this paper, I show that these outcomes crucially depend on whether importing firms are matched with multinational suppliers or with single-country suppliers. I study an antidumping duty imposed by Colombia on the imports of Chinese truck tires. I observe the full network of Colombian importers and their foreign suppliers. More importantly, plant location data shows that a few suppliers engage in multinational production, while most suppliers produce in only one country. Due to the policy, approximately 75% of Chinese tire imports were replaced with those from other origins, predominantly involving multinational suppliers in a diverse array of interactions. I estimate a quantitative trade framework to match the reallocation and price changes in the data. The model isolates three distinct channels of reallocation, influenced by connections with multinational suppliers and other complex market dynamics. This nuanced approach reveals that traditional reduced-form strategies to quantify reallocation may overlook these channels, potentially skewing welfare effect predictions of tariff -and similar- shocks. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1009 |
| By: | Shekhar Aiyar (National Council of Applied Economic Research, Delhi); Franziska Ohnsorge (Australian National University) |
| Abstract: | Geoeconomic fragmentation—the phenomenon of international transactions being increasingly restricted to politically aligned partners—creates risks for individual countries but also opportunities that some hope to seize by becoming “connector†countries. We formalize the concept of connectedness as the property of transacting with international partners drawn from across the ideological spectrum, and explore various policy correlates of connectedness. We show that more open and financially developed countries tend to be the ones that are more connected. Higher tariffs (including those used for industrial policy) are associated with less connectedness. Using a new database of geoeconomic vulnerabilities and geoeconomic connectedness for trade and financial transactions, we document that rising fragmentation since 2016 has been accompanied by broad-based cutbacks in both vulnerability and connectedness, especially in exports and FDI. The largest cutbacks have occurred in countries that were initially the most vulnerable. |
| Keywords: | geoeconomic fragmentation, geopolitics, economic vulnerability, database, trade, international lending, foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, BIS-reporting banks. |
| JEL: | F02 F15 F21 F41 F60 |
| Date: | 2024–05–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:173 |
| By: | Dahmouni Khelidja (UMBB - Université M'Hamed Bougara Boumerdes) |
| Abstract: | This study has analyzed Algerian non-hydrocarbon exports, revealing a promising trend in the past three years. It has explored Algeria's major trade partners and governmental efforts to boost exports, in addition to highlighting significant obstacles.Several potential solutions were proposed. However, despite government efforts, nonhydrocarbon exports have been adversely affected due to bureaucratic challenges, warranting further attention in enhancing their growth for the country's economic development. |
| Keywords: | exports non-hydrocarbons exports foreign trade trade barriers JEL Classification Codes: F13 F31 N7 P33, exports, non-hydrocarbons exports, foreign trade, trade barriers JEL Classification Codes: F13, F31, N7, P33 |
| Date: | 2023–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04680581 |
| By: | Sophia Baum (Complexity Science Hub Vienna); Peter Klimek (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Medical University of Vienna, Section for Science of Complex Systems, CeDAS; Complexity Science Hub Vienna) |
| Abstract: | India's proposed rice export restrictions, potentially affecting 40% of the global rice supply, may have severe consequences for several African and Middle Eastern countries. Projected losses of up to 304 kg per capita, as seen in the case of Djibouti, pose a significant threat to food security. The indirect effects through production and further trade can impact the availability of a range of secondary products such as meat, eggs, sweeteners, and alcohol. For example, Liberia’s losses over secondary products, excluding rice itself, accumulate to 5.2 kg per capita. While a diverse portfolio of import sources and domestic production can mitigate these losses to a certain extent, it cannot completely eliminate them. |
| Keywords: | Food Security, Rice Embargo, India, Global Trade, African Countries, Middle Eastern Countries, Secondary Products, Supply Chain |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdt:asciis:001 |
| By: | Gabriel Felbermayr (Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO); Kiel Institute for the World Economy); Klaus Friesenbichler (Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO); Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria (ASCII)); Julian Hinz (Kiel Institute for the World Economy); Hendrik Mahlkow (Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO); Kiel Institute for the World Economy) |
| Abstract: | On 12 June, the European Commission announced provisional countervailing tariffs of 21% on battery electric vehicles (BEVs) imported from China. This paper uses a large-scale trade model (KITE) to assess the impact of the tariffs, showing that while short-term effects may be larger, long-term effects are likely to be moderate. BEV imports from China are projected to fall by 42%, with limited impacts on EU car exports. This policy brief also analyzes potential retaliatory measures from China, including tariffs on EU pork exports, and highlights the need for careful negotiation to avoid escalation. |
| Keywords: | BEVs, Trade Policy, Countervailing Tariffs, EU-China Relations, Retaliatory Measures, KITE Model |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdt:asciis:004 |
| By: | El Weriemmi, Malek; Bakari, Sayef |
| Abstract: | This study aims to investigate the impact of CO2 emissions, domestic investment, and trade openness on economic growth in North African countries over the period 1998 to 2022. Utilizing a panel static gravity model, the results reveal that domestic investment exerts a negative influence on economic growth, while CO2 emissions and exports demonstrate a positive contribution. Furthermore, the analysis suggests that imports have an adverse, though statistically insignificant, effect on economic growth. The findings underscore the importance of fostering policies that promote exports and mitigate CO2 emissions, while carefully considering the potential negative implications of imports on the economic growth of North African countries. |
| Keywords: | CO2 Emissions, Domestic Investment, Trade Openness, Economic Growth, North African Countries, Panel Data, Gravity Model. |
| JEL: | C33 F43 O13 O55 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122152 |
| By: | Guannan Miao; Fons Strik |
| Abstract: | The new way of looking at international trade not by measuring the face value of a product but by where the production takes place has changed the way we understand international trade. It also changes the way we assess how sophisticated a countrys export basket is. This paper uses the latest OECD Trade in Value Added database to re-evaluate cross-country export sophistication as defined in Hausmann et al. (2007). It finds that the gap between the export sophistication of high-income and low-income countries is wider from a value-added perspective. The global financial crisis (GFC) marked a fundamental shift in the ability of low-income countries to catch up: before the GFC, the export sophistication gap between high-income and low-income countries narrowed, but after the GFC export sophistication in high-income countries outgrew export sophistication in low-income countries. A decomposition analysis shows that these trends are underpinned by the basket effect, which measures the extent to which changes in a countrys export sophistication are caused by changes in its own export basket. The paper also finds that higher export sophistication positively affects future economic growth, even more so when measuring export sophistication from a value-added perspective. In the early 2000s, South Africa performed relatively well in value-added export sophistication but started to lag behind its peers after the GFC, with the basket effect dragging on export sophistication growth. Nevertheless, South Africa's key strategic industries, such as motor vehicles and chemicals, appear relatively sophisticated. |
| Date: | 2024–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbz:wpaper:11066 |
| By: | Stephan Heblich; Stephen J. Redding; Yanos Zylberberg |
| Abstract: | We examine the distributional consequences of trade using the New World Grain Invasion that occurred in the second half of the 19th century. We use a newly-created dataset on population, employment by sector, property values, and poor law transfers for over 10, 000 parishes in England and Wales from 1801–1901. In response to this trade shock, we show that locations with high wheat suitability experience population decline, rural-urban migration, structural transformation away from agriculture, increases in welfare transfers, and declines in property values, relative to locations with low wheat suitability. We develop a quantitative spatial model to evaluate the income distributional consequences of this trade shock. Undertaking counterfactuals for the Grain Invasion, we show that geography is an important dimension along which these income distributional consequences occur. |
| JEL: | F14 F16 F66 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32958 |
| By: | Johannes Boehm; Thomas Chaney |
| Abstract: | What caused the end of antiquity, the shift of economic activity away from the Mediterranean towards northern Europe? We assemble a large database of coin flows between the 4th and 10th century and use it to document the shifting patterns of exchange during this time period. We build a dynamic model of trade and money where coins gradually diffuse along trade routes. We estimate the parameters of this model and recover time-varying bi-lateral trade flows and real consumption from data on the spatial and temporal distribution of coins. Our estimates suggest that technical progress, increased minting, and to a lesser degree the fall in trade flows over the newly formed border between Islam and Christianity contributed to the relative growth of Muslim Spain and the Frankish lands of northern Europe and the decline of the Roman-Byzantine world. Our estimates are consistent with the increased urbanization of western and northern Europe relative to the eastern Mediterranean from the 8th to the 10th century. |
| Keywords: | gravity models, international trade, market access, diffusion |
| Date: | 2024–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2030 |
| By: | Megan Hogan (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Warwick J. McKibbin (Peterson Institute for International Economics; Australian National University); Marcus Noland (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | The United States' granting of permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status, formerly known as most favored nation status, to China in 2000 resulted in a large expansion of bilateral trade. Concerns over Chinese trade practices and the impact of Chinese exports on US import-competing sectors have contributed to US political discontent and calls for the revocation of PNTR, including by former president Donald Trump in his reelection campaign and in the 2024 Republican Party Platform. The authors find that revoking China's PNTR status would cause higher inflation and a short-term decline in US gross domestic product relative to baseline from which the economy never fully recovers. The loss of output and employment would be felt unevenly across the economy, with agriculture, durable manufacturing, and mining taking the biggest hits. Stock market prices would fall, with agricultural, durable manufacturing, and mining firms absorbing the biggest declines. All of these impacts would be magnified if China retaliates. Ironically, the revocation would damage the US industrial sector and contribute to a wider US trade deficit. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb24-9 |
| By: | Stephan Heblich; Stephen J. Redding; Yanos Zylberberg |
| Abstract: | We examine the distributional consequences of trade using the New World Grain Invasion that occurred in the second half of the 19th century. We use a newly-created dataset on population, employment by sector, property values, and poor law transfers for over 10, 000 parishes in England and Wales from 1801-1901. In response to this trade shock, we show that locations with high wheat suitability experience population decline, rural-urban migration, structural transformation away from agriculture, increases in welfare transfers, and declines in property values, relative to locations with low wheat suitability. We develop a quantitative spatial model to evaluate the income distributional consequences of this trade shock. Undertaking counterfactuals for the Grain Invasion, we show that geography is an important dimension along which these income distributional consequences occur. |
| Keywords: | international trade, income distribution, geography |
| Date: | 2024–09–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2033 |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on economic growth in Nigeria from 2010 to 2019. Using the ordinary least square regression methodology, the findings reveal that foreign direct investment inflows do not have a significant effect on economic growth in Nigeria. The result holds when different measures of economic growth and different measures of foreign direct investment inflows are employed. Meanwhile, population size, real interest rate, domestic private credit and the inflation rate are significant determinants of economic growth in Nigeria while gross capital formation is an insignificant determinant of economic growth in Nigeria. The implication of the findings is that policy makers in Nigeria should focus on other drivers of economic growth other than foreign direct investment inflows when developing policy initiatives to stimulate economic growth in Nigeria. |
| Keywords: | Nigeria, foreign direct investment, economic growth, gross capital formation, GDP, inflation, domestic private credit, population, interest rate, GDP growth |
| JEL: | F13 F18 F31 F38 O47 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122167 |
| By: | Ghasemi, Parisa (University of Coimbra); Teixeira, Paulino (University of Coimbra); Carreira, Carlos (University of Coimbra) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we investigate the impact of the share of the foreign labor force on the wage of native workers in Portugal between 2010 and 2019 using linked employer-employee data from Quadros de Pessoal. By leveraging job characteristics from the O*NET skill taxonomy, we create more homogeneous skill groups, enabling a precise analysis of immigration's impact on specific skill sets. The empirical analysis, focusing on occupation-experience groups, reveals a positive association between native wages and immigrant shares. In contrast, when groups are based on education-experience, the relationship appears negative. These contradictory findings suggest that the impact of immigration on native wages varies significantly depending on how labor markets are segmented. Furthermore, our analysis demonstrates a positive and statistically significant effect on native wages in high-skilled occupations, while native wages in low-skilled occupations are negatively affected due to increased competition. Our findings highlight the importance of considering occupation classification over simple education levels and suggest that diverse results in existing literature may be due to sample averaging. |
| Keywords: | immigration, native wages, native-immigrants' complementarities |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17266 |
| By: | Marcus Roesch (Erasmus School of Economics); Michiel Gerritse (Erasmus School of Economics); Bas Karreman (Erasmus School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Do workers in multinational enterprises (MNEs) build stronger CVs? We track the careers of all workers entering the Dutch labor market over the years 2006-2021 and find large and portable wage premia of MNE employment experience. Workers with experience at MNEs instead of domestic firms earn up to 14% higher wages within the MNE, and up to 11% higher wages after moving to another firm. Consistent with a model of MNEs that leverage the value of their employment experience, we find that MNEs hire more juniors, pay lower starting wages, and are more selective towards senior workers than domestic firms. |
| Keywords: | multinationals, experience wage premia, firm organization, AKM, knowledge spillovers, Netherlands |
| JEL: | F23 F66 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2024–01–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20240005 |
| By: | Fernando, Gonzalez Laxe; José Francisco, Armesto Pina; Patricio Sanchez, Sanchez Fernandez |
| Abstract: | In today's world, geopolitics is leading the decisions, generating opportunities in a more inclusive globalization for many countries, while at the same time giving rise to a more fragmented economy, with fewer common rules of the game. Therefore, we are witnessing a series of overlapping crises or simultaneous crises, in which issues as disparate as tariff increases on numerous products from all corners of the world; problems arising from the supply of raw materials and food products; the effects of the emergence of artificial intelligence; China's maritime expansion; or the repercussions generated by migratory movements are intertwined. |
| Keywords: | National Accountability, Ukrania, China, international trade. |
| JEL: | E01 E02 H00 J08 |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122150 |
| By: | Matilde Bombardini; Andres Gonzalez-Lira; Bingjing Li; Chiara Motta |
| Abstract: | The latest resurgence in the U.S. of policies aimed at reducing imports and bolstering domestic production has included the expansion of Buy American provisions. While some of these are new and untested, in this paper we evaluate long-standing procurement limitations on the purchase of foreign products by the U.S. Federal Government. We use procurement micro-data to first map and measure the positive employment effects of government purchases. We then calibrate a quantitative trade model adapted to include features relevant to the Buy American Act: a government sector, policy barriers in final and intermediate goods, labor force participation, and external economies of scale. We show that current Buy American provisions on final goods purchase have created up to 100, 000 jobs at a cost of between $111, 500 and $137, 700 per job. However, the recently announced tightening of the policy on the use of foreign inputs will create fewer jobs at a higher cost of $154, 000 to $237, 800 per job. We also find scant evidence of the use of Buy American rules as an effective industrial policy. |
| JEL: | F1 F13 H41 H57 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32953 |
| By: | Carrozzo, Salvatore (University of Naples Parthenope); Lodigiani, Elisabetta (University of Padova); Venturini, Alessandra (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | The consumption of cultural goods can play a crucial role in the social and economic integration of immigrants into their destination country. In this paper, we investigate the effect of the cultural national program, IoStudio, designed to enhance the consumption of cultural goods among upper secondary students in Italy, on post-secondary investment in education and early labor market conditions among young immigrants. Using data from a unique survey conducted by the Institute for Multiethnic Studies (ISMU) on a representative sample of the entire immigrant population in the Italian Lombardy region and employing a difference-in-differences estimator, we find that the IoStudio policy has positive effects on investment in post-secondary education. Additionally, young foreigners exposed to the policy exhibit higher earnings, at least in the short run, when they enter the labour market. We claim that cultural consumption by immigrants is a relevant concern, deserving close attention in terms of increasing social capital and labour market inclusion. |
| Keywords: | cultural participation, migrants, integration, Italy |
| JEL: | Z11 J61 J62 I26 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17307 |
| By: | Yang, Dongkyu |
| Abstract: | The idea that labor scarcity can induce economic development has been long hypothesized (Hicks, 1932; Habakkuk, 1962), but the evidence is scarce, especially on non-agricultural development. In this paper, I assess the role of the Second Great Migration (1940-1970) on the subsequent structural change in the American South between 1970 and 2010. Empirical results using shift-share instruments show that out-migration incentivized physical capital investment and capital-augmenting technical change, increasing capital and output per worker in both agriculture and manufacturing at least until 2010. Labor reallocated from agriculture to nonagriculture. I then develop and calibrate a dynamic spatial equilibrium model that allows substitution between factors of production, factor-biased technical change, and Heckscher–Ohlin forces in trade. The quantitative results indicate that the adjustments to the Second Great Migration could have contributed to 7% of the total decrease in agricultural employment between 1940 and 2010 in the South. The contribution analyses suggest that labor-capital substitution played a leading role in economic adjustment to the migration, with capital-biased technical change and the quasi-Rybczynski effect playing important supplementary roles. |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:dtxn4 |
| By: | Abdullahi, Isah Usman; Muhammad, Umar Farouq; Yahaya, Umar Isah |
| Abstract: | This study used a disaggregated macroeconomic model and an Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) to analyze the effects of non-oil exports (NOE) on Nigeria's economic growth from 1980 to 2021. Before estimating the model, unit root and co-integration tests were conducted to determine the stationarity and long-run properties of the variables. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test results indicated that all-time series were non-stationary at level but became stationary after first differencing. The Johansen co-integration test results revealed that the variables are co-integrated, suggesting a long-run equilibrium relationship among them. The ECM findings indicated that NOE components positively impacted Nigeria's economic growth in both the short and long run, although the impact was largely insignificant. Based on these results, it was recommended that Nigeria's export development strategy be refocused and reinforced to address supply capacity constraints in various NOE sectors. The argument is that the government can initially manage and develop these non-oil sectors and later transfer them to private enterprises. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth: Non-Oil Export (NOE): Trade Openness: Exchange Rate |
| JEL: | G0 |
| Date: | 2024–05–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122084 |
| By: | Mohamed Bendjiar (Blida2 University Lounici Ali); Cheboui Salim (TIPAZA UNIVERSITY CENTER DZA - Partenaires IRSTEA - IRSTEA - Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture); Gachi Khaled (TIPAZA UNIVERSITY CENTER DZA - Partenaires IRSTEA - IRSTEA - Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this study is to analyze the effect of national export-promotion programs (NEPPs) on the export performance (EXP). This study used the resourcebased view (RBV) and the Institutional-based view (IBV) theory to provide a holistic understanding of the issue. we developed model include the NEPPs as an independent variable, EXP as dependent variable, and the Marketing planning capabilities (MPC) as an intermediary variable. the study tests the direct and the indirect effect for the model variables Using a partial least-squares equation model (PLS SEM) method to analyze 47 samples collected from 2022 randomly by accessing Algerian's export managers in the Algerian's food industry companies. The results confirm and show the significant direct and indirect effects of Financial aid-related national export promotion program on the export performance, and the indirect effect of Information-related national export promotion program on the export performance through the Marketing planning capabilities. |
| Keywords: | National export promotion program (NEPPs) Export performance (EXP) Marketing JEL Classification Codes: M160 F23 L250, National export promotion program (NEPPs), Export performance (EXP), Marketing JEL Classification Codes: M160, F23, L250 |
| Date: | 2023–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04684565 |
| By: | Hayo, Bernd (University of Marburg); Roth, Duncan H.W. (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | A sizeable literature analyses how immigration affects attitudes towards migrants and discusses differences between socio-economic groups and their potential correlation with perceived concerns about labour market competition. Against the background of the large-scale influx of refugees into Germany between 2015 and 2016, this paper uses data from a unique and representative survey of the German population to assess whether respondents express fears of job loss due to immigration. We focus on the importance of perceptions of migrants' ability to do one's job in relation to these fears. Moreover, we compare concerns about refugees with those about EU migrants and propose several hypotheses. Our findings indicate that: (i) Respondents are more likely to view EU migrants as potential competitors in the labour market. (ii) Workers in blue-collar occupations and without tertiary education are more likely to view migrants as potential competitors on the labour market. (iii) The perception of potential competition from migrants strongly predicts fear of job loss. Once we control for this perception, occupation and skill levels are no longer significantly related to the probability of reporting fear of job loss. Moreover, there are no longer significant differences between the two migrant groups. (iv) Anti-migrant sentiments are also associated with concerns about job loss. |
| Keywords: | refugees, EU migration, immigration, labour market, perceptions, competition, job loss, Germany |
| JEL: | F22 J61 D84 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17278 |
| By: | Mr. Mario Catalan; Mr. Salih Fendoglu; Tomohiro Tsuruga |
| Abstract: | Do geopolitical tensions between countries influence the cross-border asset allocation of investment funds? Our answer is yes. We estimate gravity models and find that investment funds allocate smaller shares of their portfolios to recipient countries that are geopolitically more distant to their country of origin—with geopolitical distance measured by dissimilarity in countries’ voting behavior in the United Nations General Assembly. We also find an investment diversion effect: a recipient country attracts additional investments when its source countries get geopolitically more distant to third-party countries. These results are robust to instrumenting geopolitical distance and using alternative distance measures. |
| Keywords: | Globalization; geopolitics; geoeconomics; fragmentation; portfolioflows; cross-border; asset allocation; investment funds; gravitymodel; international finance. |
| Date: | 2024–09–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/196 |
| By: | Pascal Beckers; Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Ksenija Ivanović; Sandra M. Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Friedrich Poeschel; Alireza Sabouniha (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of labour shortages on migration aspirations and destination preferences among individuals from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia. Using a two-stage Heckman selection model, we analyse data from the OeNB Euro Survey and the World Bank’s STEP Measurement Program. The results indicate that labour shortages significantly influence migration decisions individuals are more likely to aspire to migrate if there is a shortage of workers in their occupation in the aspired destination countries, while shortages in their home country reduce migration aspirations. These findings suggest that both origin and destination countries should consider labour market conditions when formulating migration policies. For destination countries, highlighting demand for specific skills can attract needed workers, while Western Balkan countries should address the education-labour market mismatch to mitigate local shortages. Policy co-ordination between regions is crucial to manage migration flows and address skill gaps without exacerbating local shortages. |
| Keywords: | migration drivers, migration aspirations/desires, destination decision, choice model |
| JEL: | F22 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:252 |
| By: | Dardati, Evangelina; Laurent, Thibault; Margaretic, Paula; Thomas-Agnan, Christine |
| Abstract: | Using a comprehensive dataset of bilateral migration flows and employing the Palmer index as a proxy for climate change, we demonstrate that conflict acts as an amplifying mechanism for climate-induced migration. Our results show that, as drought conditions worsen, middle- and high-income countries experiencing conflict are more inclined to have higher rates of international out-migration. In particular, we find that one standard deviation contraction in the Palmer index, indicating drier conditions, is associated with a 12% increase in out-migration flows from middle/high-income countries experiencing conflict. We also explore spatial autocorrelation and observe positive and significant origin-and destination-spatial dependence effects. Our findings contribute to understanding the intricate dynamics of climate change, conflict, and international migration while offering insights into migration patterns across countries. |
| Keywords: | Migration flows, climate change, conflict, droughts |
| JEL: | C31 F22 Q34 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:129726 |
| By: | Jakree Koosakul; Ms. Longmei Zhang; Maryam Zia |
| Abstract: | After decades of increasing global economic integration, the world is facing a growing risk of geoeconomic fragmentation, with potentially far-reaching implications for the global economy and the international monetary system. Against this background, this paper studies how geopolitical proximity, along with other economic factors, affects the usage of five SDR currencies in cross-border transactions. Since World War II, the global currency landscape has remained relatively stable, with the U.S. dollar serving as the dominant currency. Using country-level SWIFT transaction data, our analysis confirms the importance of inertia, trade and financial linkages in shaping the currency landscape, consistent with existing studies. On geopolitical proximity, we find that closer proximity can boost the use of the euro and renminbi, notably among emerging market and developing economies, although the impact is rather muted in the full sample. The effect on RMB usage in the full sample is more pronounced during periods of heightened trade policy uncertainty. These findings suggest that in a more geoeconomically fragmented world, alternative currencies could play a greater role. |
| Date: | 2024–09–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/189 |
| By: | Turati, Riccardo (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes whether natives with a network abroad have a distinctive cultural stance compared to similar individuals without such connections within the same region. Using individual-level data on connectedness from the Gallup World Poll across 2, 256 within-country regions over 148 countries, it characterizes the cultural stance based on three traits: pro-social behavior, religiosity and gender-egalitarian attitudes. The paper shows that natives who have a connection abroad are characterized by stronger pro-social behavior, religiosity and genderegalitarian attitudes. To address potential biases arising from omitted variables, it controls for an extensive array of individual characteristics and region-by-year fixed effects. The results are also consistent after employing comprehensive measures of connectedness, employing matching techniques, and assessing selection biases related to unobservable factors. Finally, by leveraging both country and individual-level heterogeneity, the analysis indicates that the pro-social behavior stance of connected individuals is fairly consistent across different contexts and individuals, while the findings on religiosity and gender-egalitarian attitudes are more sensitive to local and individual factors. The paper therefore shows that factors enhancing or dampening this relation are cultural trait specific. |
| Keywords: | cultural traits, connectedness, social remittances, international migration |
| JEL: | F22 O15 Z10 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17270 |
| By: | Anton Pichler; Jan Hurt; Tobias Reisch; Johannes Stangl; Stefan Thurner |
| Abstract: | The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 entailed the threat of a drastic and sudden reduction of natural gas supply to the European Union. This paper presents a techno-economic analysis of the consequences of a sudden gas supply shock to Austria, one of the most dependent countries on imports of Russian gas. Our analysis comprises (a) a detailed assessment of supply and demand side countermeasures to mitigate the immediate shortfall in Russian gas imports, (b) a mapping of the net reduction in gas supply to industrial sectors to quantify direct economic shocks and expected relative reductions in gross output and (c) the quantification of higher-order economic impacts through using a dynamic out-of-equilibrium input-output model. Our results show that potential economic consequences can range from relatively mild to highly severe, depending on the implementation and success of counteracting mitigation measures. We find that securing alternative gas imports, storage management, and incentivizing fuel switching represent the most important short-term policy levers to mitigate the adverse impacts of a sudden import stop. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.07981 |
| By: | Hufbauer, Gary Clyde |
| Abstract: | Subsidies to the semiconductor industry have been massive ever since chips were created in the 1950s. Yet, semiconductor subsidies have never been challenged in the GATT or WTO, and rarely in bilateral commercial relations. Reasons suggest a permanent vacuum of subsidy discipline for this and kindred industries. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:colfdi:302798 |
| By: | Khellil Khaled (OEB - Université Larbi-Ben-Mhidi [Oum-El-Bouaghi]); Loucif Kamilia (OEB - Université Larbi-Ben-Mhidi [Oum-El-Bouaghi]) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to assess the development of small and medium-sized enterprises in Algeria from 2010 to 2022 and their contribution to economic diversification and reducing Algeria's reliance on oil revenues, using descriptive and analytical techniques plus the inductive approach to examine and analyze data collected, the study shows that Algeria's small and medium-sized enterprises are vulnerable and ineffective at contributing to the country's economic diversification, and their extensive orientation towards the services and construction sectors does not help create added value despite the significant growth in their count during the period of study. |
| Keywords: | Small and Medium-sized Enterprises Economic Diversification Algerian exports. JEL Classification Codes : Q32 Q37, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises, Economic Diversification, Algerian exports. JEL Classification Codes : Q32, Q37 |
| Date: | 2023–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04684569 |
| By: | Oikawa, Keita; Iwasaki, Fusanori; Ueki, Yasushi; Urata, Shujiro |
| Abstract: | The study conducted a comprehensive examination of the digital divide in the ASEAN region through a large-scale questionnaire survey targeting regional MSMEs. Two types of surveys, web and phone, were employed to capture a diverse range of responses, considering company size, industry, and geographical location. Findings reveal that before COVID, basic digital devices and e-payment systems were widely adopted, even by entry-level firms, while other digital tools saw limited adoption, widening the digital divide. Post-COVID, digitally developed firms accelerated their adoption of digital tools, especially web conferencing and e-commerce, while entry-level firms showed little progress. The study identifies a five-stage progression in digital tool adoption, highlighting the need for tailored support at each stage. Firm attributes significantly influenced adoption: economic development levels positively affected smaller firms, firm size consistently impacted adoption, and rural firms were not disadvantaged. FDI and ownership structure also played crucial roles, with FDI firms adopting a broader range of tools but lagging in advanced tools. Participation in global value chains positively influenced adoption, especially at higher stages. Public and private support benefited digitally developed firms but was less effective for entry-level firms, indicating a need for targeted support mechanisms. The study underscores the connection between digital tool adoption and improved business performance post-COVID, with digitally developed firms experiencing positive growth and entry-level firms showing increased robustness. The findings suggest that policymakers should provide targeted assistance, enhance support access, and address stage-specific challenges to ensure all firms benefit from digital transformation initiatives. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302492 |
| By: | Peter Klimek (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Complexity Science Hub Vienna; Medical University of Vienna, Section for Science of Complex Systems, CeDAS); Markus Gerschberger (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Josef Ressel Centre for Real-Time Value Network Visibility, Logistikum, FHOO); Christopher Schwarz (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Josef Ressel Centre for Real-Time Value Network Visibility, Logistikum, FHOO); Tiberiu-Alexandru Cioban (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Josef Ressel Centre for Real-Time Value Network Visibility, Logistikum, FHOO); Agnes Kügler (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Austrian Institute of Economic Research); Elma Dervic (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Josef Ressel Centre for Real-Time Value Network Visibility, Logistikum, FHOO); Georg Heiler (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Complexity Science Hub Vienna); Hernán Picatto (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria); Klaus Friesenbichler (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Austrian Institute of Economic Research); Lukas Schmogil (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Austrian Institute of Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | This report delves into Austria's role in the global semiconductor supply chain against the backdrop of significant global initiatives to incentivize the production of semiconductors, to secure availability for applications, to promote innovation and prepare for future chip supply crises. Leveraging a model of the stylized semiconductor value chain (SSVC) and employing large-scale data-mining techniques, the study classifies and maps over 20, 000 semiconductor companies to their positions in the extended SSVC (chip production and application). The results reveal that the United States, China, Taiwan, Japan, and Korea are key players in various segments of the value chain. Austria emerges with a concentration in specific value chain segments and a well-diversified presence in a wide range of application domains. Austria has noteworthy capabilities in wafer fabrication, providing equipment and tools for core sub-processes such as lithography, deposition, and packaging. Regarding semiconductor applications, Austria focuses particularly on various industrial applications. It demonstrates proficiency in fields such as sensors, encompassing security, RFID, and imaging applications, power electronics, design automation, high-performance design, mixed-signal circuits, wireless network applications, storage solutions, memory cards, and processors chips. Notably, Austria's strengths extend to applications within the automotive industry, where opportunities might arise with the shift to electric vehicles. Opportunities for Austria lie also in focusing on segments with increasing exclusivity and importance (such as advanced packaging) and combining low capital expenditure with high value add, particularly in chip design and equipment/tools segments. The report highlights potential weaknesses, such as dependencies on external segments and a lack of domestic production in certain areas. |
| Keywords: | Semiconductor, Supply Chain, Global Trade, Austria, Automotive Industry, Electric Vehicles, RFID, Wafer Fabrication, Sensors |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdt:wpaper:002 |