|
on International Trade |
| By: | Javier López González; Silvia Sorescu; Chiara Del Giovane |
| Abstract: | The digital transformation is having a profound impact on the international trade of the United Kingdom (UK). Digital trade exports have grown three times faster than other exports and now represent more than half of total exports, twice the OECD and EU averages. This strong performance is, in part, driven by a favourable domestic regulatory environment and an ambitious digital trade agenda in the United Kingdom’s trade and digital economy agreements. Econometric analysis shows that digital trade chapters in trade agreements can double the impact of the agreements, with issues around data protection, consumer protection, source code and cybersecurity potentially delivering the largest gains. To remain at the forefront of digital trade the United Kingdom should continue domestic reforms, including digitisation of trade documents and processes. To ensure that exporters maintain access to other markets, the United Kingdom should continue to engage in discussions on digital trade provisions in trade agreements and support ongoing multilateral and plurilateral discussions, including in the context of the WTO Work Programme on E-commerce and the Agreement on E-commerce. |
| Keywords: | Data flows, Digital connectivity, E-commerce, Services trade, Trade agreements |
| JEL: | C54 F13 F14 F15 F68 O3 |
| Date: | 2024–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:285-en |
| By: | Boukezata Salim (UMBB - Université M'Hamed Bougara Boumerdes) |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of this article is to examine the effect of Information Communication Technology (ICT), market size and trade openness on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for the panel of 21 countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), over the period 1998-2021, using the panel Vector Error Correction Models (panel VECM). overall, we find a strong evidence supporting the view that ICT, market size and trade openness effects FDI in OIC members countries in the long-term. however, in the short-term ICT, market size and trade openness haven't a significant effect on FDI inflows. |
| Keywords: | ICT FDI VECM trade openness market size OIC countries. JEL Classification Codes: D83 F13 F14 F21 G11 P45, ICT, FDI, VECM, trade openness, market size, OIC countries. JEL Classification Codes: D83, F13, F14, F21, G11, P45 |
| Date: | 2024–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04678750 |
| By: | Pédussel Wu, Jennifer; Banach, Clark N.; Goulas, Sofoklis; Silva Neira, Ignacio |
| Abstract: | The question of whether trade agreements are 'stepping stones' or 'stumbling blocks' to multilateral trade liberalization is not a new one; however, the empirical methods and the quality of the data used to address this question are continually improving. This paper explores this familiar question using a robust combined dataset and advances in structural gravity analysis to offer insight into regional integration agreements and trade networks. We introduce the Bilateral Longitudinal Observations and Country Statistics (BLOCS) database and demonstrate variation in PPML estimations using measures from varying sources. The data includes observations between 218 sovereign states, and their trading partners, over 60 years (1963-2022). We estimate specifications using four measures of trade flows, and several trade agreement dummies, accounting for varying definitions and reporting practices. Observations also include information on agreement depth and country attributes to contextualize existing literature and further understand the relationship between international trade and agreements. Differences observed between measures of Regional Trade Agreement (RTA) pairs indicate that the methodology for coding trade agreement participation matters. Our findings also suggest that variations in agreement details predict variation in total trade, thus supporting the hypothesis that not all trade agreements are created equal. It is the institutional details that determine whether a trade agreement will be a 'stepping stone' or a 'stumbling block' to multilateral trade liberalization. |
| Keywords: | Database, Empirical gravity models, International trade, Regional trade patterns |
| JEL: | C80 C89 D02 F02 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ipewps:301875 |
| By: | Krieger, Bastian; Trottner, Fabian |
| Abstract: | We study the implications of services trade for firm innovation. Using a quasi-experimental shift-share design, we find that access to foreign knowledge-related services improves the innovativeness of domestic firms and complements their indigenously sourced R&D. To confront this evidence, we develop a theoretical model. It demonstrates outsourcing can foster firms' innovation efficiency by mitigating decreasing economies of scale in in-house innovation efforts. As a result, firms become more likely to outsource innovation efforts as they become more innovative, whereas the prevalence of offshoring depends on its associated trade costs. |
| Keywords: | International integration, Service trade, Firm innovation |
| JEL: | F14 F15 F23 O31 O32 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:301867 |
| By: | El Weriemmi, Malek; Bakari, Sayef |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the impact of agricultural exports on economic growth in 30 upper-middle-income countries from 2004 to 2023 using World Bank data and static gravity model. The results indicate that agricultural exports positively influence economic growth, with a 1% increase in exports associated with a 0.13% rise in growth. Capital investment and labor also significantly contribute to economic progress. The findings suggest that enhancing agricultural export policies and infrastructure can effectively boost economic growth. Balancing trade policies to mitigate the negative effects of imports is also recommended. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Exports, Economic Growth, Static Gravity Model, Upper Middle-Income Countries. |
| JEL: | F11 F14 O47 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121660 |
| By: | Zanane Reda (UMBB - Université M'Hamed Bougara Boumerdes); Mohamed Benlakehal (UMBB - Université M'Hamed Bougara Boumerdes) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to analyze the issue of export diversification, by trying to focus on the opportunities offered by the African continental free trade area, and the obstacles that prevent the achievement of this goal, with the hypothesis that it constitutes in the medium and long term, a vital space for the marketing of Algerian industrial products.The study concludes the importance of moving towards integration within the African space to achieve development goals, which must be preceded by taking several steps at the strategic level that lead to the removal of various obstacles, especially logistical ones. |
| Keywords: | African Continental Free Trade Area Small and medium industries Export opportunities Economic Diversification JEL Classification Codes : Q56 Q32 Q37, African Continental Free Trade Area, Small and medium industries, Export, opportunities, Economic Diversification JEL Classification Codes : Q56, Q32, Q37 |
| Date: | 2024–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04678399 |
| By: | Kokas, Deeksha (Nanyang Technological University, Singapore); Roche Rodriguez, Jaime Alfonso (World Bank); Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys (World Bank); Robertson, Raymond (Texas A&M University); Karamba, Wendy (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Cambodia's rapid economic growth in the past few decades has coincided with trade liberalization and structural transformation. This growth has been extensively associated with more employment, higher wages, shared prosperity, and poverty reduction. By combining two complementary approaches, the Gravity model and the Bartik model, this paper estimates: (i) the relationship between trade agreements and trade flows, and (ii) the relationship between trade exposure and various local labor market outcomes. Our gravity estimates show that trade agreements between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are positively related with trade flows, and that Cambodia's specific gains from these increases in trade have been larger than for the average trade agreement. This has led to better results for workers in Cambodia's local labor markets. Our shift-share Bartik results suggest that increases in trade exposure in Cambodian districts between 2009 and 2019 correlate with reduced informality and an increase in hours worked, with more positive effects for female workers. |
| Keywords: | trade policy, exports, trade exposure, employment, informality, wages |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17209 |
| By: | Sebastian Benz; Alexander Jaax; Elisabeth van Lieshout |
| Abstract: | The contribution of services in the United Kingdom (UK) to exports, value added, and employment is one of the highest amongst OECD countries. UK employment also depends strongly on exports of digital services: in 2019 the jobs of around 3.2 million domestic workers in digital services sectors were embodied in UK exports. Median wages in these services are considerable higher than wages in other sectors of the UK economy. Econometric analysis shows that strong growth of employment in digital services generates multiplier effects benefitting local economies in the United Kingdom, with each additional digital services job creating around 0.3 jobs in the local non-tradable sector. Continued support for plurilateral and multilateral initiatives to dismantle barriers to services trade, including via the WTO Joint Initiative on Services Domestic Regulation, can help to enable more UK firms to take advantage of the potential for further growth in digital services trade. Improving the availability of training programmes and aligning curricula with the rapidly evolving needs of exporters of digital services is crucial to enable for workers to shift into sectors with growing labour demand. |
| Keywords: | E-commerce, Multipliers, Services Trade, Wages |
| JEL: | E4 F13 F15 F16 J21 L86 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:284-en |
| By: | Duran-Fernandez, Roberto |
| Abstract: | This paper critically examines the phenomenon of nearshoring in Mexico within the broader context of global value chain (GVC) reconfiguration. As geopolitical tensions, rising labor costs in Asia, and the push for supply chain resilience have intensified, nearshoring has emerged as a prominent strategy, particularly in Mexico. However, despite the optimistic narratives surrounding nearshoring, this paper argues that its impact on Mexico is more complex and nuanced than often portrayed. By analyzing economic, geopolitical, and environmental factors, the paper evaluates Mexico's positioning to benefit from nearshoring trends. It highlights the opportunities, such as increased foreign direct investment (FDI) and potential GDP growth, while also addressing the significant challenges, including infrastructure deficits and the need for strategic industrial policies. The analysis reveals that the benefits of nearshoring are likely to be concentrated in specific sectors and regions, necessitating a balanced perspective that recognizes both the potential and limitations of this trend. Ultimately, the paper provides a grounded assessment of nearshoring's implications for Mexico, offering insights into the broader narrative of GVC reconfiguration and its localized effects |
| Keywords: | Nearshoring, Global Value Chains, Economic Development, Industrial Policy |
| JEL: | F63 O14 O25 R58 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:301885 |
| By: | Oualid MECHTI (UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal]); Khadija EL ISSAOUI (UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal]) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to analyse the impact of corruption control and the economic environment on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to African middle-income countries over the period 2002-2022 (21 years). To examine this relationship, this paper uses the dynamic two-stage system GMM approach suggested by Blundell and Bond (1998). The results reveal that controlling corruption (휷ퟒ= 3.61) has a positive effect on FDI inflows. Indeed, a one-percentage point improvement in the control of corruption generates a 3.61% increase in FDI inflows in the context of African middle-income countries. In terms of macroeconomic indicators, only the variables GDP growth rate (휷ퟏ= 0.015) and trade openness (휷ퟑ= 0.046) have a positive and significant influence on the attractiveness of FDI. Inflation, on the other hand, has no significant effect. This proves that a healthy macroeconomy and effective control of corruption are essential for attracting FDI flows, which is another novelty of this study. These results constitute important empirical evidence for researchers, as well as for African economies to apply macroeconomic reforms and policies aimed at reducing corruption. |
| Abstract: | L'objectif poursuivi dans ce papier est d'analyser l'impact du contrôle de la corruption et l'environnement économiquesur les flux d'investissements directs étrangers (IDE) dans les pays africains à revenu intermédiaire au cours de la période 2002-2022 (21 ans). Pour examiner cette relation, ce papier, utilise le modèle dynamique de l'approche GMM en système et en deux étapes suggéréespar Blundell et Bond (1998). Les résultats révèlent que le contrôle de la corruption (휷ퟒ= 3.61) a un effet positif sur les entrées d'IDE. En effet, une amélioration d'un point de pourcentage du contrôle de la corruption engendre une hausse de 3.61% des entrées d'IDE dans le contexte des pays africains à revenu intermédiaire. Concernant les indicateurs macroéconomiques seuls les variables le taux de croissance du PIB (휷ퟏ= 0.015) et l'ouverture commerciale (휷ퟑ= 0.046), exercent une influence positive et significative sur l'attractivité des IDE. Tandis que ‘'le taux d'inflation'' ne génère aucun effet significatif. Cela prouve qu'une macroéconomie saine et un contrôle efficace de la corruption sont essentiels pour attirer les flux d'IDE, ce qui est une autre nouveauté de cette étude. Ces résultats constituent des preuves empiriques importantes pour les chercheurs, ainsi que pour les économies africaines à d'appliquer des réformes macroéconomiques, ainsi que des politiques visant à réduire la corruption. |
| Keywords: | African economies, FDI flows, corruption control, macroeconomic approach., Economies africaines, flux d’IDE, contrôle de corruption, approche macroéconomique, Economies africaines flux d'IDE contrôle de corruption approche macroéconomique Classification JEL : F21 G28 O16 O11 O38 O55 African economies FDI flows corruption control macroeconomic approach. JEL Classification: F21 G28 O16 O11 O38 O55, flux d'IDE, approche macroéconomique Classification JEL : F21, G28, O16, O11, O38, O55 African economies, macroeconomic approach. JEL Classification: F21, O55 |
| Date: | 2024–08–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04679512 |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | The OECD database on export restrictions on staple crops is an integral part of the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) initiative. Data collected between January 2007 to April 2024 show an increased use of export restrictions during the global food price crisis of 2007-08, the COVID-19 pandemic, and following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with the first period witnessing a significantly higher use of export restrictions than the two subsequent crises. During the first two periods, export taxes prevailed, while prohibitions have been more prominent during the war in Ukraine. The analysis shows that the type of export restriction most commonly used varied by commodity. Maize experienced predominantly export taxes and prohibitions, while minimum export prices and quotas were frequently used for rice. Soybeans were primarily targeted by export taxes, whereas a mix of export quotas and taxes were used for wheat. Only a small proportion of export restrictions lasted less than a month. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural policy, Agricultural trade, Export bans, Food trade, Grains |
| JEL: | F13 Q17 Q2 Q18 |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:agraaa:210-en |
| By: | Nedumpara, James J.; Reddy, Pushkar |
| Abstract: | The investment chapter of the Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement concluded between India and EFTA includes a ground breaking commitment - EFTA to achieve specific investment and employment generation targets and India to foster investment friendly conditions. This Perspective explores how the trading partners can meet these shared objectives. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:colfdi:302123 |
| By: | Kossi Messanh Agbekponou (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Ilaria Fusacchia (ROMA TRE - Università degli Studi Roma Tre = Roma Tre University) |
| Abstract: | Value creation forms the basis for the construction of global value chains (GVCs) and has received significant scholarly attention, yet the issue of value capture or power distribution along supply chains, "within" industries, is still unresolved. A recent property rights framework (Antr`as and Chor, 2013; Alfaro et al., 2019) highlights how final goods producers exert power over their suppliers to optimally organize their sequential production process. In such an environment, how can suppliers (exporters) act strategically to increase their bargaining power with respect to buyers (importers)? We contribute, theoretically and empirically, to a better understanding of the extent to which the division of surplus in the agri-food sector is affected by manufacturing exporters' position in GVCs. We argue that: (1) further upstream specialization along agri-food GVCs increases bargaining power (the "specialization effect"); (2) expansion along GVCs by importing more upstream inputs and exporting more processed goods also increase bargaining (the "expansion effect"); and (3) the "specialization effect" outweighs the "expansion effect" so that the overall effect is similar to the former. These theoretical hypotheses are tested using firm-level data on French agri-food industries (from French customs and the AMADEUS database) over 2002-2017 period. We build on the bilateral stochastic frontier model to measure the bilateral bargaining power of manufacturers. Following recent approaches in the literature, we identify manufacturers that participate in GVCs with those that jointly import and export, and measure their position in value chains through the level of transformation (upstreamness) of goods they use and produce. Hypotheses (1) and (3) are strongly supported and are mainly driven by product mix upgrade and the reduction of the hol-up problem, while hypothesis (2) is weakly supported and is only due to the high-quality production. |
| Keywords: | Bargaining power, Division of surplus, Global value chains, Upstreamness, Agri-food industry |
| Date: | 2024–03–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04666053 |
| By: | Trang T. Hoang; Devashish Mitra; Hoang Pham |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of an export market expansion created by the US-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) on labor market competition among Vietnamese manufacturing firms. We measure distortionary wedges between equilibrium marginal revenue products of labor (MRPL) and wages nonparametrically and find that the median firm pays workers 59% of their MRPL. The BTA permanently decreases labor market distortion in manufacturing by 3.4%, mainly for domestic private firms. The median distortion is 26% higher for women than men, and the decline in distortion for women drives the overall distortion reduction. We shed some light on the mechanisms for these results. |
| Keywords: | International Trade; Export Market Access; Labor Market Distortion; Misallocation; Income Distribution; Labor Share; Gender Inequality; Monopsony; Oligopsony |
| JEL: | F16 F63 O15 O24 J42 J16 |
| Date: | 2024–08–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1394 |
| By: | Federico S. Mandelman (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta); Yang Yu (Shanghai Jiao Tong University); Francesco Zanetti (University of Oxford; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)); Andrei Zlate (Federal Reserve Board) |
| Abstract: | We document a steady decline in low-skilled immigration that began with the onset of the Great Recession in 2007, which was associated with labor shortages in low-skilled service occupations and a decline in the skill premium. Falling returns to high-skilled jobs coincided with a decline in the educational attainment of native-born workers. We develop and estimate a stochastic growth model with endogenous immigration and training to account for these facts and study macroeconomic performance and welfare. Lower immigration leads to higher wages for low-skilled workers and higher consumer prices. Importantly, the decline in the skill premium discourages the training of native workers, persistently reducing aggregate productivity and welfare. Stimulus policies during the COVID-19 pandemic, amid a widespread shortage of low-skilled immigrant labor, exacerbated the rise in consumer prices and reduced welfare. We show that the 2021-2023 immigration surge helped to partially alleviate existing labor shortages and restore welfare. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, skill premium, task upgrading, heterogeneous workers |
| JEL: | F16 F22 F41 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:2429 |
| By: | Fabrice Defever; Alejandro Riano; Gonzalo Varela |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the impact of two large export finance support schemes on firm-level export performance. The Export Finance Scheme (EFS) and the Long-Term Finance Facility for Plant & Machinery (LTFF), provide loans at subsidized interest rates for Pakistani exporters to finance working capital and the purchase of machinery and equipment respectively. We combine customs data with information on firms' participation in each program between 2015 and 2017 and use matching combined with difference-in-differences to estimate the effect of the subsidies on firms' export values, the number of products exported and the number of destinations they serve. We find that both programs deliver a large and positive impact on export growth rates - primarily along the intensive margin - and do so in an effective way relative to the direct financial cost of the subsidies. |
| Keywords: | trade finance, export subsidies, working capital, machinery and equipment, export margins, Pakistan |
| Date: | 2024–08–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2027 |
| By: | Kornher, Lukas; Balezentis, Tomas; Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano |
| Abstract: | Since the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine War, global food markets have been in turmoil. Agricultural input and energy prices doubled between 2020 and 2022, with immediate consequences on food accessibility. We examine the drivers of the EU food inflation patterns, and how trade integration shapes these dynamics. We find that food price inflation has been mainly driven by surges in agricultural production costs and, to a lesser extent, by global food price increases. Trade openness has not exacerbated the inflating dynamics during this period. |
| Keywords: | Europe, food price inflation, Russia–Ukraine War, trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk |
| JEL: | E31 Q11 Q18 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121673 |
| By: | Hickel, Jason; Hanbury Lemos, Morena; Barbour, Felix |
| Abstract: | Researchers have argued that wealthy nations rely on a large net appropriation of labour and resources from the rest of the world through unequal exchange in international trade and global commodity chains. Here we assess this empirically by measuring flows of embodied labour in the world economy from 1995–2021, accounting for skill levels, sectors and wages. We find that, in 2021, the economies of the global North net-appropriated 826 billion hours of embodied labour from the global South, across all skill levels and sectors. The wage value of this net-appropriated labour was equivalent to €16.9 trillion in Northern prices, accounting for skill level. This appropriation roughly doubles the labour that is available for Northern consumption but drains the South of productive capacity that could be used instead for local human needs and development. Unequal exchange is understood to be driven in part by systematic wage inequalities. We find Southern wages are 87–95% lower than Northern wages for work of equal skill. While Southern workers contribute 90% of the labour that powers the world economy, they receive only 21% of global income. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 J1 |
| Date: | 2024–07–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124543 |
| By: | Marco Garofalo (Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM); University of Oxford; Bank of England); Giovanni Rosso (University of Oxford); Roger Vicquery (Bank of England; Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM)) |
| Abstract: | We explore an episode of aggregate transition to dominant currency pricing in a large developed economy, relying on transaction-level data on the universe of UK trade between 2010 and 2022. Until 2016, the majority of UK non-EU exports were invoiced in British pounds, the ”producer” currency. However, in the aftermath of the June 2016 Brexit referendum and the subsequent depreciation of the pound, the share of non-EU UK exports invoiced in pounds started to sharply decrease– by more than 20 percentage points. This was mirrored by an increase of similar magnitude in the share of US dollar invoicing, which by 2019 overtook the pound as the main non-EU export invoicing currency. Using shift-share and event-study identification strategies, we show that large foreign-exchange movements can generate a transition in invoicing choices for firms with low levels of operational hedging, that is whose exports are not denominated in the same currency as their import. We find that that this currency-mismatch valuation channel accounts for most of the transition away from producer currency pricing, above and beyond effects from strategic complementarities and market power. Finally, we show that this shift in export pricing paradigm has important aggregate consequences for export pass-through and the allocative effects of price rigidities. Exports exhibit significantly higher elasticity to USD exchange-rate movements after the Brexit referendum: a USD dollar appreciation depresses demand for exports by twice as much than before this ‘dominant currency pricing transition'. |
| Keywords: | Invoicing currency of trade, Dominant currency pricing, Foreign-exchange mismatch, Firm-level data, Exchange-rate pass-through |
| JEL: | F14 F31 F41 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:2419 |
| By: | Kim, Hyok Jung (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Oh, Jonghyuk (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kwon, Hyuk Ju (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 본 보고서에서는 최근 미국이 강화하고 있는 대중국 반도체 수출통제 제도가 미치는 경제적 영향에 대해 분석하였다. 미국의 대중국 수출통제는 반도체 제조시설과 AI 반도체를 중심으로 강화되는 추세이며, 해당 분야에서 우리나라의 반도체 제조를 비롯한 장비 산업에 영향을 미칠 수 있음을 알아보았다. 이러한 미국의 수출통제 제도에 대응해 우리나라는 반도체 산업 상류의 경쟁력을 강화하고 반도체 제조와 관련해 노출된 위험을 분산할 필요가 있다. This report examines the status of U.S. semiconductor export controls and estimates their impact. We focus on two major areas of semiconductor export controls implemented by the Biden Administration: restrictions on certain semiconductor manufacturing facilities and AI chips. In Chapter 2 reviews the history of U.S. semiconductor export controls, which progressively became stronger and broader in scope during the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations. In doing so, we confirmed that semiconductor export controls have become more frequent and in an effort to overcome the limitations of existing sanctions. Regarding export controls attempted by the Obama administration, American companies were able to circumvent them by assisting Chinese companies. The Trump and Biden administrations have closed such loopholes by expanding existing sanctions. The scope of the Trump administration’s sanctions against some companies, such as Huawei and SMIC, has been greatly expanded to include export controls targeting all of China under the Biden administration. Additionally, Chapter 2 reviews the concerns of various companies, associations, and organizations regarding these broader export controls and reviews key countries’ responses to the semiconductor supply chain. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | export control; semiconductor; economic impact; manufacturing facility; AI chips |
| Date: | 2023–12–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2023_020 |
| By: | Chen Chen; Koralai Kirabaeva; Danchen Zhao |
| Abstract: | Financially constrained governments, particularly in emerging and developing economies, tend to face a fiscal trade-off between adapting to climate change impacts and pursuing broader development goals. This trade-off is especially relevant in the agriculture sector, where investing in adaptation is critical to ensure food security amidst climate change. International trade can help alleviate this challenge and reduce adaptation investment needs by offsetting agricultural production shortages. However, in the presence of trade fragmentation, the adaptive role of trade diminishes, exacerbating food insecurity and increasing investment needs for adaptation. In this paper, we present a model to guide policymakers in deciding on the cost-efficient balance between investing in adaptation in the agricultural sector versus in broader development under financing and trade constraints. We apply the model to Ghana, Egypt, and Brazil, to examine the adaptation-development trade-off and highlight factors that would potentially lower adaptation investment needs. These factors include trade openness, higher agricultural productivity and efficiency of adaptation spending, and reduced labor market distortions. The key takeaways from the model applications suggest that (i) promoting trade openness and accessing concessional finance for adaptation help tackle climate challenges and ensure food security in lower-income countries; and (ii) domestic structural reforms are necessary to facilitate adaptation investments and reduce investment needs, by improving labor market flexibility, adaptation efficiency, and agriculture productivity. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; investment; adaptation; trade; climate change |
| Date: | 2024–08–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/184 |
| By: | El Weriemmi, Malek; Bakari, Sayef |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of agricultural exports and CO2 emissions on economic growth in 78 high-income countries from 2004 to 2023. Using a robust econometric framework that includes fixed-effects and random-effects models, the research finds that agricultural exports positively influence economic growth by generating revenue and enhancing competitiveness, while CO2 emissions negatively affect growth due to the associated environmental costs. The analysis, supported by the Hausman test and panel data techniques, highlights the need for balanced policy interventions that promote agricultural export growth while mitigating CO2 emissions. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers seeking to achieve sustainable economic development by integrating environmental considerations into economic strategies. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Exports, CO2 Emissions, Economic Growth, Static Gravity Model, High-Income-Countries. |
| JEL: | F11 F14 O47 Q17 Q18 R11 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121697 |
| By: | Kiet Duong (University of York.); Toan Huynh (Queen Mary University of London); Anh Phan (University of Liverpool); Nam Vu (Miami University) |
| Abstract: | We propose a novel explanation for why sanctions on Russian firms might not work as intended: these firms' ability to diversify sanction risks via partner countries friendly with Russia. Using indirect links with partner firms as a plausibly exogenous proxy for this risk-sharing channel, we show that exposed Russian firms were able to leverage these links to alleviate the negative impacts of sanctions in 2014. |
| Keywords: | International risk-sharing, sanction, Russia, firm-level |
| JEL: | F31 F41 F42 F51 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgs:wpaper:119 |
| By: | Calzada, BCO; Spinola, Danilo |
| Abstract: | Export diversification is crucial for economic development, yet many resource-rich countries have struggled to achieve significant progress in diversifying its economic structure. While the lack of capabilities is often highlighted as a primary barrier to diversification, the literature frequently underestimates the significant impact of macroeconomic conditions on diversification potential. This study seeks to bridge the gap between the capabilities literature and macroeconomic factors, particularly in the context of economies heavily dependent on extractive industries. In order to address our question, we initially introduce a novel measure of product relatedness, expanding on the framework developed by Nomaler and Verspagen (2022), and econometrically estimate its relationship with key macroeconomic variables such as international prices, exchange rates, energy and mineral dependency, and GDP per capita. The analysis spans over 5, 000 products across multiple countries from 1995 to 2019, with the objective of determining the relative significance of these factors in predicting diversification patterns and assessing how macroeconomic conditions either facilitate or impede diversification, particularly in non-extractive sectors. Product relatedness predicts diversification, especially in extractive industries where path dependence is highly pronounced. However, macroeconomic factors exert a major influence on diversification outcomes. These macroeconomic variables can either constrain or enable diversification, shaping the pathways through which industries evolve and expand their portfolios. |
| Keywords: | Export Diversification; Product Relatedness; Macroeconomic Factors; Extractive Sectors |
| Date: | 2024–09–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:akf:cafewp:30 |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | The Alliance of Sahel States (AES), created in September 2023 by the three military governments of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso as a counterweight to ECOWAS and the postcolonial influence of France and other Western countries, announced the creation of a confederation of its three countries in July 2024. The AES have more in common than the other countries of the Sahel. First, they are the centre of the Sahel and most vulnerable to jihadism. They figure among the least developed countries, with 40% to 50% of the population living in poverty. They are also landlocked countries with vast desert areas, making them more vulnerable to climate change. The creation of the AES came amid a decade of escalating unrest in the Sahel, fuelled by the aftermath of the NATO-led intervention in Libya in 2011. The resulting instability caused rampant arms trafficking and the rise of armed groups linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. The Sahel region accounts for a staggering 43% of global terrorist deaths, more than South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa combined. Previous leaders have often put French interests ahead of those of their own people, allowing the continued exploitation of the region's natural resources, including uranium, gold and manganese, without much benefit to the local population. In the face of critical comments from the AU about the AES countries' exit from ECOWAS, the former rejected any interference in their internal affairs. The AES confederation will expand the operational space of the junta alliance and consolidate its military and economic partnership with Russia and China, as well as Turkey and Iran. However, the AES secession undermines the legitimacy of ECOWAS by hindering regional economic and security integration and further complicating the return to democratization. The confederation will seek to absorb new members such as Chad, Guinea and Sudan to further strengthen its power and legitimacy as an alternative regional bloc. However, a divided Sahel will make tackling regional challenges even more difficult. If the AES were to replace the CFA franc with its own currency, as announced, and other Francophone countries in the UEMOA were to follow suit, this would require a fundamental restructuring of both the UEMOA and ECOWAS and finally also call into question the introduction of the ECO, the common West African currency, envisaged for 2027. |
| Keywords: | Alliance of Sahel States; West Africa; Sahel; ECOWAS; UEMOA; Jihadism; Decolonization; Nationalism; Sovereignty; Sustainable development; good governance; CFA franc; Mali; Niger; Burkina Faso; Guinea; Nigeria; France; Russia; China; |
| JEL: | F15 F35 F52 F53 F54 H77 N17 N47 O17 O55 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–07–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121554 |