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on International Trade |
| By: | Ouyang, Hanzhen; Shi, Shuo |
| Abstract: | In 2023, Mexico exceeded China and became the largest trade partner of the US. Will Mexico further replace China and rise to a strategically vital supplier for US supply chains? This working paper shows that although US supply chain sources are shifting from China to Mexico, China remains the primary value-added source of Mexican exports to the US market. Moreover, Mexican exports to the US rely on low-skill sectors, whereas more Chinese exports are high-skill goods. The current US trade shift is likely caused by China’s FDI inflows to Mexico’s traditionally competitive export sector. However, Mexico lacks edge-cutting manufacturing firms to substitute China in US supply chains. Therefore, the US strategy of “trade diversion” cannot support Mexico’s role in reducing the US supply chain dependence on China. The US should rethink a sustainable trade framework that promotes stable cooperation with China. |
| Keywords: | supply chains; Mexico-China competition; USMCA; trade diversion |
| JEL: | L81 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:123941&r= |
| By: | Shota Miki (Bank of Japan); Yoichiro Tamanyu (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an overview of the ongoing restructuring of global semiconductor supply chains and investigates how long-term developments in competitiveness between trading countries as well as recent changes in trade policies have affected this restructuring. Using as an example the U.S. tariff hikes against China during 2018-19, which serves as a natural experiment, we first confirm that the stylized facts shown in previous studies--that China's exports to the U.S. decreased significantly, while bystander countries not directly involved in the tariff hikes increased their exports to the U.S.--hold true for semiconductor-related products. Then, to further examine the restructuring of global semiconductor supply chains, we calculate the upstreamness--the distance from final use--of each country's exports in the supply chain, and examine how this has evolved over time and how it can be related to wage differences between those countries. We find that export upstreamness is positively correlated with the wage gap between the trading countries and confirm that this tendency existed well before the recent tariff hikes. These observations imply that the restructuring of global semiconductor supply chains is not led solely by the direct consequences of the tariff hikes, but also by the endogenous response to changes in comparative advantage between the countries involved in the supply chain. |
| Keywords: | Tariffs; Semiconductors; Global supply chains; Upstreamness |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2024–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp24e06&r= |
| By: | Erick Sager; Olga A. Timoshenko |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of uncertainty on elasticities of trade flows with respect to variable trade costs in a canonical model of trade with monopolistic competition and heterogeneous firms. We identify two channels through which uncertainty impacts trade: through export participation thresholds (the selection effect) and the distribution of shocks governing export selection (the dispersion effect). While the selection effect dampens trade elasticities under uncertainty, the dispersion effect is ambiguous. We develop a methodology for using customs firm-level data to quantify trade elasticities under uncertainty, and the magnitude of each of the two channels through which uncertainty impacts trade. We find that uncertainty amplifies trade elasticities, on average, indicating that the dispersion effect of idiosyncratic firm-level shocks dominates -- though the effect is heterogeneous across industries. The overall magnitude of the endogenous selection mechanism on trade elasticities is small, indicating that the main drivers of trade in this class of trade models are overwhelmingly incumbent firms. |
| Keywords: | Demand uncertainty; Firm size distribution; Extensive margin; Selection; Trade elasticities; Welfare |
| JEL: | F12 F13 |
| Date: | 2024–06–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-42&r= |
| By: | Zhiyuan Li (School of Economics, Fudan University); Bing Lu (School of Statistics, Beijing Normal University); Sili Zhou (Faculty of Business and Administration, University of Macau, and Asia-Pacific Academy of Economics and Management, University of Macau) |
| Abstract: | This paper documents that international trade can cause uneven distribution of production opportunities to countries in face of uncoordinated environmental policies. Specifically, we use exogenous introductions of national carbon policy to study how local firms react to such shocks, especially when they make sourcing decisions on carbon inputs. Results show that regulatory carbon taxes lead domestic firms to import more carbon products, such as cement, iron and steel, from foreign producers. Micro evidence further shows that firms will increase their trade shares to foreign suppliers located in pollution haven. Exploiting global supply chain information, we further find that domestic regulatory carbon taxes do benefit foreign carbon suppliers, helping them to, for example, increase fixed investment, expand production scales and improve financial performance. These findings highlight the importance to take into account international trade when forming environmental policies in order to fulfill the growth, welfare and emission reduction goals of such policies. |
| Keywords: | Green Trade, Carbon Taxes, Carbon Leakage, Production Reallocation, Global Supply Chain |
| JEL: | F18 F23 F64 H23 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boa:wpaper:202413&r= |
| By: | Keiko Ito (Graduate School of Social Sciences, Chiba University); Masahiro Endoh (Faculty of Business and Commerce, Keio University); Naoto Jinji (Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University); Toshiyuki Matsuura (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University); Toshihiro Okubo (Faculty of Economics, Keio University); Akira Sasahara (Faculty of Economics, Keio University) |
| Abstract: | This study is the first to comprehensively investigate international trade at the firm-level using Japan fs customs data for the 2014-2020 period. We first decompose international trade into the intensive and extensive margin and show that the intensive margin accounts for around 30% and 40% of the variation in partner country-specific exports and imports, respectively. We next find a substantial concentration of trading firms: in 2017, the top 10% of exporters accounted for 96.6% of all exports, while the top 10% of importers were responsible for 94.6% of all imports. Finally, we match the customs data with other firm-level datasets and estimate the performance premia of exporting firms. Our findings indicate that exporting firms outperform non-exporting firms in all aspects we consider: sales, value added, the number of employees, the capital-labor ratio, productivity, and wages. Interestingly, the exporter premia for value added, labor productivity, and total factor productivity decreased between 2014 and 2016 and then increased until 2019, whereas the exporter premium for the average wage steadily increased. |
| Keywords: | Japan fs international trade, customs data, intensive and extensive margin of trade, exporter premia |
| JEL: | F10 F14 L25 |
| Date: | 2024–06–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:2024-017&r= |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | The dynamics of Austria’s economic relations with the EU Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine – and with Russia have deviated from those of the EU in several important ways. During the decade preceding the war in Ukraine, Austrian trade with the region generally developed less dynamically than EU trade, as trade with countries that did not sign Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements (DCFTAs) with the EU – unsurprisingly –underperformed. However, Austrian investments in Russia have shown greater resilience than EU investments, especially since the start of the war in Ukraine. Austria ranks third from bottom among EU member states for the share of companies that have completely withdrawn from Russia or are in the process of doing so, probably explaining in part why its exports to Russia have suffered much less than EU exports. In addition, chemicals, including pharmaceuticals, which have been little affected by sanctions, account for a large share of Austrian exports. Also, unlike the EU, Austria’s dependence on Russian natural gas remains high, partly for geographical reasons and also because of contractual obligations between Austria’s ÖMV and Russia’s Gazprom. Austria would be well advised to build on its record of economic involvement in the EaP region and capitalise on the new opportunities offered by the improved EU accession prospects of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. |
| Keywords: | EU Eastern Partnership countries, Austria, EU, trade, investment, gas dependence |
| JEL: | F14 F21 Q40 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:81&r= |
| By: | Ralph Janik |
| Abstract: | Abstract:The global investment regime stands at a crossroads. From the late 1980s onwards, its predominant, if not exclusive focus on economic growth has been increasingly shifting towards sustainable development. The delicate balance between these considerations is reflected in bilateral or multilateral negotiations , national legislation, and decisions by domestic courts or investment tribunals. One does not work without the other.To contribute to this discussion, this policy brief summarizes existing environmental provisions in investment treaties and and free trade agreements to outline their potential role as part of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In so doing, it summarizes the positions of the relevant multilateral institutions and fora, namely the UN Conference on Trade and Development, the OECD, or the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law. The general assumption is clear: While investment protection in general and investor-state-dispute settlement is under enormous pressure due to accusations of ignoring societal values such as environmental concerns, calls for disbanding it are premature. Foreign direct investment can and should play More, not less, foreign direct investment is needed to protect the environment. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:pbrief:y:2024:m:06:i:63&r= |
| By: | Justin Sandefur (Center for Global Development); Arvind Subramanian (Peterson Institute for International Economics; Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | Starting in 2001, duty-free access to U.S. markets under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) led to a brief boom in African manufacturing exports, particularly apparel, which then fizzled in the face of unfettered Chinese competition after 2005. The looming expiration of AGOA—and eroding Chinese competitiveness—offers an opportunity for the United States to think more imaginatively about actions to boost African industrialization. Re-establishing the same degree of trade preferences Africa enjoyed relative to competitors in the early 2000s would require negative tariffs, i.e., import subsidies. While unconventional, we estimate targeted subsidies equivalent to 2 percent of current U.S. aid to Africa could double the region’s light-manufacturing exports to the U.S. On the investment side, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation could complement AGOA’s boost to structural transformation by redirecting a portion of its portfolio from banking and mining to manufacturing. |
| Keywords: | African Growth and Opportunity Act, trade preferences, apparel exports |
| JEL: | F14 L67 O14 |
| Date: | 2024–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:689&r= |
| By: | Viral V. Acharya; Zhengyang Jiang; Robert J. Richmond; Ernst-Ludwig Von Thadden |
| Abstract: | We analyze international trade and health policy coordination during a pandemic by developing a two-economy, two-sector trade model integrated into a micro-founded SIR model of infection dynamics. Disease transmission intensity can differ by goods (manufactured versus services and domestic versus foreign). Governments can adopt containment policies to suppress infection spread domestically, and levy import tariffs to prevent infection from abroad. The globally coordinated policy dynamically adjusts both policy instruments heterogeneously across sectors. The more-infected country aggressively contains the pandemic, raising tariffs and tilting the terms of trade in its favor, while the less-infected country lowers tariffs to share its economic pain. In contrast, in the Nash equilibrium of uncoordinated policies the more infected country does not internalize the global spread of the pandemic, lowering tariffs and its terms of trade, especially in the contact-intensive services sector, while the less infected country counters the spread by raising tariffs. Coordination therefore matters: the health-cum-trade war leads to less consumption and production, as well as smaller health gains due to inadequate global diversification of infection curves. |
| JEL: | F1 F3 I1 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32566&r= |
| By: | Ken-ichi Hashimoto (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University); Kaz Miyagiwa (Department of Economics, Florida International University); Yoshiyasu Ono (Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University; Osaka University of Economics); Matthias Schlegl (Department of Economics, Sophia University, Tokyo, Japan) |
| Abstract: | This paper first presents a dynamic model that features both real and monetary aspects of international trade and is capable of dealing with both full employment and secular unemployment. The model is then utilized to examine the effect of a tariff on the terms of trade, the trade pattern, real consumption and employment of labor. It is shown that with full employment in both countries, a tariff by the home country improves its terms of trade and increases its national welfare at the expense of the foreign country. These results however are reversed in the presence of unemployment in both countries. We also examine the asymmetric cases and calibrate our model to evaluate numerically the effect of large tariff changes. The main ï¬ nding is that the tariff only worsens the economy when it is already stagnant. |
| Keywords: | demand shortage, unemployment, tariffs, secular stagnation |
| JEL: | E24 E31 F13 F41 J20 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fiu:wpaper:2409&r= |
| By: | Dutta, Sourish (Vivekananda Institute of Professional Studies-Technical Campus) |
| Abstract: | This article reiterates the importance of understanding and addressing the strategic inquiries and potential responses in the context of global value chain (GVC) participation. Policymakers must address these crucial matters to engage in GVCs effectively. Governments aspiring to participate in GVCs must focus on determining which tasks to prioritise and exploring various forms of GVC governance. The challenges and opportunities of establishing top-notch GVC connections and fostering a favourable environment for foreign assets are significant for countries looking to integrate into GVCs. While navigating power dynamics and supply chain risks, these efforts can attract suitable foreign investors, enhance market connectivity, and develop high-quality infrastructure and services, all of which can lead to significant economic growth and development. The potential benefits of GVC participation are vast, and by understanding and addressing the strategic inquiries and possible responses, policymakers can take control of the situation and pave the way for a prosperous future. |
| Date: | 2024–06–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:zxmru&r= |
| By: | Christoph Boehm; Andrei A. Levchenko; Nitya Pandalai-Nayar; Hiroshi Toma |
| Abstract: | Yes. We state closed-form expressions for steady state gains from trade that apply in a class of dynamic trade models that includes dynamic versions of the Krugman (1980), Melitz (2003), and customer capital (e.g., Arkolakis, 2010) models. The gains are a function of the domestic trade share and the long-run elasticity of trade with respect to iceberg trade costs, similar to Arkolakis, Costinot, and Rodríguez-Clare (2012). In contrast to static settings, in a dynamic world this long-run elasticity cannot be estimated in one step by relying on tariff variation as shifters of trade costs. We show, instead, that this object can be recovered by combining two tariff elasticity estimates: the long- and the short-run. Thus, the short-run tariff elasticity indirectly enters the formula for the steady state gains from trade. Our main substantive finding is that the gains from trade are large. They depend crucially on the short-run tariff elasticity, and can be arbitrarily large even if the long-run tariff elasticity is high. Accounting for the transition path has a minor impact on the magnitude of the gains from trade, relative to simply comparing steady states. |
| JEL: | F12 F15 F62 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32565&r= |
| By: | Kim, Jeong-Gon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Kyunghoon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Pek, Jong-Hun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Nam, Yoojin (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Cho, Won-Deuk (Korea National Diplomatic Academy) |
| Abstract: | 본 연구에서는 외교·경제 측면에서 인도의 전략적 중요성이 높아지는 배경과, 주요국의 대인도 전략 변화 및 인도의 대응, 그리고 인도와 주요국 간 경제협력 어젠다를 분석했다. 또한 설문조사 및 인터뷰를 통해 한·인도 협력에 대한 양국 전문가의 시각을 조사했다. 본 연구에서는 인도태평양 시대 한·인도 경제협력의 중장기 방향으로 ‘지속성 있고 호혜적인 경제협력을 통한 신뢰관계 구축’을 강조하고, 양국간 경제협력의 핵심 과제로 제조업을 중심으로 한 호혜적 협력 다각화를 제안했다. With the geopolitical and geoeconomic importance of the Indo-Pacific region in the spotlight, India’s strategic value has come to the fore, and its eventual positioning in the G3 is more likely than ever. The United States and other like-minded countries are committed to building diplomatic, military, and economic ties with India. In response, India is more actively pursuing strategic autonomy. While increasingly estranged from China and relatively close to the United States, India is clearly seeking to minimize its dependence on any one country and maximize its autonomy to consider its own interests and make alliances on a case-by-case basis. This is true in the economic sphere as well as in foreign and security affairs. Therefore, it is important to understand the nature of the issue and India’s unique position and needs on it. For example, while India has some cooperation with China in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, it opposes the Belt and Road Initiative. Meanwhile, it continues to engage in military and economic exchanges with Russia, despite the cold shoulder from the US and other Western countries. Major players in the international community, such as the United States and Japan, have significantly strengthened their strategic economic cooperation with India in recent years, especially as they have begun to reshape their global supply chains. While complete decoupling from China is unlikely at least in the short term, it is clear that India is emerging as an alternative partner in the new Asia (Altasia). With a growing network of strategic, economic, and technological partnerships already centred on India, there is every likelihood that India will become a major player in global supply chains in the medium to long term. South Korea seems to have started to ride this wave. By adopting Korea’s Indo-Pacific Strategy to strengthen its role as a ‘global pivot’, the South Korean government has created an opportunity to share its strategic vision with India. It should develop the bilateral relationship into one of close strategic solidarity and cooperation, and adjust its approach to India. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | India; Indo-Pacific region; Korea-India economic cooperation |
| Date: | 2023–12–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2023_002&r= |
| By: | Kim, Gyupan (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Lee, Hyong-Kun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Seung-Hyun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Son, Wonju (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 본 연구는 미국 주도의 글로벌 공급망 재편 움직임 속에서 일본정부가 추진하고 있는 경제안전보장 전략과 공급망 강화정책을 심도 있게 평가하고, '일본의 공급망 리스크'를 중국에 대한 의존도를 중심으로 분석했다. 이어 일본정부의 중요물자 공급망 관리정책에 대해 살펴본 다음, 우리 정부의 공급망 3법 및 부문별 공급망 관리정책에 대해 알아보았다. 이러한 분석 결과를 바탕으로 정책적 시사점과 함께 반도체, 이차전지, 핵심광물 3개 부문에 대한 한·일 협력 방향을 제시하였다. This study outlines the Japanese government’s economic security strategy in response to the U.S.-led global supply chain reorganization, and analyzes the geographical risks of the Japan’s supply chain and the management policies on critical products. It also examines Korea’s supply chain management policy and provides policy implications for Korea-Japan cooperation in the following sectors: semiconductors, batteries, and critical minerals. Chapter 2 analyzes Japan’s economic security policies, especially export control and the two measures included in ‘the Economic Security Promotion Act’ which are highly related to global supply chain reorganization or domestic supply chain reinforcement. This research also evaluates the policies from Japan’s perspective in the context of the US-led global supply chain reorganization. Based on the findings that Japan participates in multilateral frameworks, is careful not to directly provoke China, and is more interested in pursuing economic benefits through bilateral cooperation with the U.S., this chapter attempts to evaluate Japan’s strategy from two perspectives: Japan’s position on US-led multilateral global supply chain reorganization (IPEF, MSP), and US-Japan bilateral economic security cooperation. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | Japan; global supply chain; risk management; Korea-Japan cooperation |
| Date: | 2023–12–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2023_010&r= |
| By: | Willem THORBECKE; CHEN Chen; Nimesh SALIKE |
| Abstract: | Traditional models indicate that appreciations of the exporting country’s currency relative to the importing country’s currency decrease exports. The dominant currency paradigm (DCP) holds that, since so much trade is invoiced in U.S. dollars (USD), a change in the importing country’s currency relative to the USD rather than relative to the exporting country’s currency influences trade. We seek to choose between these hypotheses for China, the world’s largest exporter. The results indicate that both the traditional model and the DCP framework help to explain China’s exports over the 1995-2018 period. When we focus on the period before renminbi internationalization policies increased renminbi invoicing, we find that the DCP framework no longer has explanatory power, but the bilateral RMB exchange rate does. We find that one reason for this puzzling finding is that exchange rates in countries that provide parts and components to China are correlated with the bilateral RMB rate and influence China’s exports. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:24062&r= |
| By: | Ruiyang Hu (Department of Economics, University of Macau); Chen Yin (School of Social Development and Public Policy, Fudan University); Zhijie Zheng (Bay Area International Business School, Beijing Normal University.); Sili Zhou (Faculty of Business and Administration, University of Macau, and Asia-Pacific Academy of Economics and Management, University of Macau) |
| Abstract: | If the domestic market operates under an inefficient economic structure, then access to foreign markets can lead to long-term benefits. In this paper, we examine the effect of free trade zones (FTZs), a progressive trade liberalization program, on corporate innovation. By using data on Chinese publicly listed firms, we find that firms operating in FTZs experience significant increases in their innovation output. These positive effects are primarily attributed to the easing of financial constraints, increased market competition, and improved access to foreign markets, even though their effects on the quantity and quality of corporate innovation can be noticeably distinct. Our empirical findings are rationalized by a simple Schumpeterian model with endogenous quality improvement, and they provide implications for policymakers to promote domestic firm growth in the global marketplace. |
| Keywords: | Free Trade Zone, Corporate Innovation, Financial Constraint, Market Competition, Trade Liberalization |
| JEL: | G30 G31 G32 O19 O30 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boa:wpaper:202414&r= |
| By: | Kim, Hong-Won (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Lee, Hanna (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 본 연구는 중국 내 서비스 분야 개혁개방과 무역자유화 조치가 우선적으로 도입되고 있는 하이난 자유무역항 정책을 분석하여 서비스 분야의 한·중 협력방안을 모색하고 홍콩 자유무역항 기능의 분산 가능성을 검토하였다. 이를 위해 하이난 자유무역항 정책을 기존 중국의 대외개방 플랫폼인 자유무역시험구, 홍콩의 제도와 비교하여 차별성과 특징을 도출하였다. 또한 하이난 자유무역항 구축 초기 단계의 성과를 검토하고, 대중국 경제협력을 제안하기 위하여 무역·투자·면세관광 측면에서 변화와 해외 협력사례를 분석하였다. Recently, China has signed and applied for membership in several trade agreements, including RCEP, CPTPP, and DEPA, which are expected to promote the reform and opening up of China’s trade sector. Specifically in the area of services trade, China needs to prepare itself for transitioning from the current positive list approach to the negative list method within three years after the implementation of RCEP in 2022, while also adopting an internationally recognized methodology. Several policies are being implemented. This study analyzed the Hainan Free Trade Port policy, which prioritizes the introduction of regulatory reform and trade liberalization measures in China’s services sector. It aimed to explore ways for Korea and China to cooperate in the service industry while also assessing the potential for decentralizing the functions of the Hong Kong Free Trade Port. The conclusions and implications of this study are as follows. First, China is initially promoting the reform and opening up of Hainan’s service industry through the implementation of market access relaxation measures and negative lists, which constitutes a fundamental aspect of the Hainan’s Free Trade Port policy. China is anticipated to elevate trade standards by conducting openness assessments, amending domestic laws and regulations, and simultaneously applying a negative list and market access relaxation measures for the Hainan Free Trade Port, renowned for its highest level of openness. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | China; Hainan; Trade and Investment Liberalization |
| Date: | 2024–06–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepre:2023_009&r= |
| By: | Horn, Henrik (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Lavenius, Axel (IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute); Sanctuary, Mark (KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm) |
| Abstract: | Protecting biodiversity will require the phase-out of harmful production at a large scale. However, some of these stranded investments will be foreign-owned, and can therefore be protected by the more than 2, 600 investment treaties that are in force worldwide. These treaties' compensation requirements are often alleged to dissuade host countries from undertaking desirable policy measures that harm foreign investor interests. This paper seeks to identify the countries, and the bilateral investment treaties they are parties to, that pose the most severe threat to biodiversity protection. It assumes that these treaties combine three features: (i) they can be interpreted to impose far-reaching protection of (ii) considerable foreign investment positions, and (iii) in countries with vulnerable biodiversity. To operationalize these notions, the paper identifies 15 criteria that a treaty must fulfill to be considered problematic from a host country regulatory perspective. It also introduces an index for biodiversity vulnerability, based on Red List data. The analysis of 1, 781 bilateral investment treaties and the 172 countries that are parties to these treaties identifies 12 countries that are the most concerned from a biodiversity perspective. These countries are almost all newly industrialized and middle-income. The paper also identifies 44 agreements that from a biodiversity perspective should be prioritized targets for renegotiation or termination. |
| Keywords: | Biodiversity; International investment agreements; Investment treaties; Stranded assets; Regulatory chill |
| JEL: | F21 F23 F53 K33 Q57 |
| Date: | 2024–06–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1496&r= |
| By: | Paulo Barbosa; João Cortes; João Amador (ISEG - University of Lisbon and Portugal Trade & Investment; Portugal Trade & Investment; Banco de Portugal and Nova SBE) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates how distant a firm is from becoming a successful exporter. The empirical exercise uses very rich data for Portuguese firms and assumes that there are non-trivial determinants to distinguish between exporters and non-exporters. An array of machine learning models - Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART), Missingness not at Random (BART-MIA), Random Forest, Logit Regression and Neural Networks – are trained to predict firms’ export probability and shed light on the critical factors driving the transition to successful export ventures. Neural Networks outperform the other techniques and remain highly accurate when we change the export definitions and the training and testing strategies. We show that the most influential variables for prediction are labour productivity, firms’ goods and services imports, capital intensity and wages. |
| Keywords: | Machine learning, Forecasting exporters, Trade promotion, Micro level data, Portugal |
| JEL: | F17 C53 C55 L21 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mde:wpaper:182&r= |
| By: | Schmitz, Martin; Dietrich, Andreas; Brisson, Rémy |
| Abstract: | The nominal effective exchange rate (EER) of a currency is an index of the trade-weighted average of its bilateral exchange rates vis-à-vis the currencies of selected trading partners, while the real EER is derived by adjusting the nominal index for relative prices or costs. The nominal EER provides a summary measure of a currency’s external value, while the real EER is the most commonly used indicator of the international price and cost competitiveness of an economy. Additionally, for all individual euro area countries, harmonised competitiveness indicators (HCIs) are published by the European Central Bank (ECB) based on the same methodology as the euro EERs. This paper describes how the calculation of the ECB’s EERs and HCIs has been enhanced to take into account in the underlying trade weights the evolution of international trade linkages and, in particular, the growing importance of trade in services. The paper includes an in-depth description of the methodology used to calculate these enhanced EERs and HCIs. In particular, it presents how to overcome the challenges arising from the inclusion of services trade, foremost in terms of data availability, with imputation and estimation techniques. Importantly, the ECB’s well-established methodology – which in particular accounts for competition faced by euro area exporters in third markets – did not have to be changed with the inclusion of services trade. Finally, the paper provides some evidence on the usefulness of the enhanced indicators for policymakers, economic analysts and the public at large. JEL Classification: C82, F10, F17, F30, F31, F40 |
| Keywords: | competitiveness, effective exchange rate (EER), gravity model, harmonised competitiveness indicator (HCI), nominal effective exchange rate (NEER), real effective exchange rate (REER), services trade, trade weights |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbsps:202449&r= |
| By: | Sahar Amidi (Université d'Orléans); Rezgar Feizi (University of Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how various factors affect pollution levels in Europe’s manufacturing industry. The paper explores how productivity, expenditure share, trade cost, and environmental regulations affect pollution levels in Europe’s manufacturing industry. The World Input-Output Database provides data on global and local pollution for each industrial sector solely for the period ranging from 1995 to 2009. We use a general equilibrium model and quantitative trade model that considers pollution as a byproduct of production. The study aims to examine the effectiveness of regulations and control for the primary causes of environmental pollution (the main causes). Our empirical results reveal that air pollution emissions from EU manufacturing decreased by 33.21 percent despite an 85.44 percent increase in real manufacturing output. This outcome could provide evidence for the role of reducing the pollution contamination of manufacturing. The study finds that most of the decrease in emissions can be ascribed to changes in environmental regulations, rather than changes in expenditure share, trade cost, and productivity. Increasing environmental regulations by 20 percent can eliminate emissions intensity. After increasing environmental regulations by 20%, the emission of global pollutants such as methane decreased by 17.27% in 2009. |
| Keywords: | Environmental account and accounting, environmental taxes, general equilibrium model, productivity, quantitative model, technological innovation, trade cost |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inf:wpaper:2024.10&r= |
| By: | Jinapor, John Abdulai; Abor, Joshua Yindenaba; Graham, Michael |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the potential impact of energy consumption and foreign direct investment (FDI) on inclusive growth in 32 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries from 2000 to 2019. The results from the 2-stage system generalised method of moment (GMM), reveal that energy consumption induces inclusive growth. The results also show a substantial impact of non-renewable energy, relative to renewable energy, on inclusive growth. Additionally, the results further reveal that FDI has a non-linear relationship with inclusive growth, where FDI dampens inclusive growth to a certain point and begins to induce it after that point. Moreover, FDI effectively forms synergies with energy consumption towards promoting inclusive growth in SSA. The interactive term results revealed that FDI forms synergies with both renewable and non-renewable energy to promote inclusive growth in SSA. We recommend that African leaders focus on attracting FDIs towards financing their energy needs, particularly in the area of low-carbon or renewable energy sources, by leveraging private sector capital investments to achieve inclusive growth whilst attaining sustainable development. |
| Keywords: | SSA; Renewable Energy Consumption; Non-Renewable Energy Consumption; FDI; Inclusive Growth |
| JEL: | F20 O20 Q4 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121143&r= |
| By: | Amodio, Francesco; Brancati, Emanuele; De Roux, Nicolas; Di Maio, Michele |
| Abstract: | Using establishment-level data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey, we assess the market power of exporting firms across 16 countries in Latin America. Leveraging information on export destinations, as well as exchange rate and price data, we construct exchange rate-driven shocks to the marginal revenue product of individual firms. By examining firms' employment and wage responses, we estimate the inverse elasticity of the labor supply they face a direct indicator of labor market power. In our preferred specification, we estimate that workers employed in exporting firms produce on the margin 83% more than what they earn as wage. We investigate the correlations between labor market power and firm characteristics, country attributes, and labor market institutions and regulations. We find that labor market power is higher for firms in countries where unions, collective bargaining, and unemployment protection are less prevalent. |
| Keywords: | Firms;exports;Labor market power;Labor market institutions;Latin America |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F16 J42 L10 O54 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13451&r= |
| By: | Philipp Barteska; Jay Euijung Lee |
| Abstract: | Does bureaucratic capacity matter for growth miracles? This paper investigates how much the effect of an industrial policy during South Korea’s growth miracle depends on bureaucratic capacity. We find that the bureaucrats implementing the policy greatly change its effect on exports – the variable targeted by the policy and key to South Korea’s economic success. These bureaucrats manage offices that promote exports on appointments to 87 countries between 1965, when South Korea was one of the world’s poorest countries, and 2000. We exploit the three-yearly rotation of managers between countries to show that increasing bureaucrat ability by one standard deviation causes a 37% increase in exports. This effect is comparable to the policy’s average effect – estimated from office openings. Hence, this industrial policy entirely depends on bureaucratic capacity: It has no effect when implemented by a bureaucrat one standard deviation below average. We find evidence for a key mechanism via which better bureaucrats increase exports: transmitting information about market conditions. Under better bureaucrats South Korean exports increase more strongly with a country’s import demand – taking advantage of this demand. Finally, we investigate whether bureaucrat experience increases South Korean exports. We isolate quasi-random variation in experience: a product’s import demand growth during the bureaucrat’s first appointment. Such experience increases exports in subsequent appointments of this bureaucrat. This highlights that organizational capacity grows endogenously, implying a novel channel for path dependence in organizational capacity. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notnic:2024-11&r= |
| By: | Sulehri, Fiaz Ahmad; Ali, Amjad |
| Abstract: | The concept of sustainable development holds significant importance for both current and future generations. This research examines the different pathways and relationships among sustainable development, stock market performance, foreign direct investment, regulatory framework, and innovation. The structural equation modeling technique used and analysis have been conducted using a sample of 24 countries that contribute around 65% of global greenhouse gas emissions over the period from 2000 to 2019. The empirical analysis, based on direct effects, confirms that innovation enhances stock market performance and necessitates stringent regulations. Conversely, innovation reduces foreign direct investment. Similarly, a set of regulations and stock market performance have an adverse impact on sustainable development. Additionally, the empirics of indirect effects reveal that innovation and stock market performance encourage foreign direct investment by using regulations as mediators. Moreover, innovation reduces sustainable development indirectly, considering stock market performance and foreign direct investment as mediators. |
| Keywords: | Stock Market Performance, Innovation, Foreign Direct Investment, Regulatory Framework, Sustainable Development, Structural Equation Model |
| JEL: | F21 G18 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121286&r= |
| By: | Parisa Ghasemi (University of Coimbra, Faculty of Economics); Paulino Teixeira (University of Coimbra, Centre for Business and Economics and Faculty of Economics); Carlos Carreira (University of Coimbra, Centre for Business and Economics and Faculty of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we investigate the impact of the share of the foreign labor force on the labor productivity of firms operating in Portugal between 2010 and 2019, drawing on data from two main sources: linked employer-employee data from Quadros de Pessoal and firm-level balance sheet data from SCIE-Sistema de Contas Integradas das Empresas. The empirical analysis, conducted using Fixed Effects Two-Stage Least Squares, shows that immigrants do not contribute to the productivity of firms in which they are employed. We further investigate whether the productivity response to increased immigrant labor varies across different subsamples. Notably, low-productivity firms experience adverse effects when the share of immigrants rises, whereas smaller firms benefit from their presence. Furthermore, our analysis shows a positive and statistically significant impact on labor productivity from foreign-born workers with 5 to 9 years of formal education. This finding suggests that this particular demographic brings valuable skills and contributions to the workforce, enhancing overall productivity levels. |
| Keywords: | Firms, Immigration, Low skilled Immigrants, Productivity |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gmf:papers:2024-01&r= |
| By: | von Daniels, Laura |
| Abstract: | The United States sees the rise of authoritarian China as the primary risk to its national security and the global order. US foreign policy views the economy across party lines as being part of "national security" - especially vis-à-vis China. In its competition with China, the United States is increasingly resorting to coercive economic instruments, some of which can also apply to companies in third countries. These are primarily tariffs, financial sanctions as well as export and investment controls. Industrial policy, including large-scale subsidies, complements these defensive economic measures. US allies and economic partners see both coercive economic measures and industrial policy as challenges. Biden's customised technology controls ("small yard, high fence" approach) are being met with scepticism concerning their scope, practicability and effectiveness. Biden's new industrial policy was seen as a risk to the economic base of the European Union and was introduced at a particularly bad time - when European industry is struggling most with energy price increases and rising production costs. In this situation, the European Commission has rightly initiated a process to focus on the EU's own vulnerabilities and to strengthen the coordination of external economic policy decision processes beyond trade policy. Regardless of the outcome of the US presidential election in 2024 - and in order to reduce dependence on an authoritarian China - the European Commission and the governments of the member states should work together with companies to further develop de-risking strategies and to control critical technologies. The Commission's recently published package of measures on economic security is an important step in this direction. The next European Commission should set up an Economic Security Council to independently assess issues relevant to the EU's security and economy and enable faster and better informed decisions by the member states. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swprps:300000&r= |
| By: | Jaji, Rose |
| Abstract: | This Policy Brief addresses the challenges that Ghana faces in implementing governance norms on international migration. Although Ghana has committed to the goals of the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (GCM) and the African Union (AU) and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Protocols on Free Movement, along with complementing them with comprehensive domestic migration policies, there are obstacles to holistic implementation of these goals as well as those in the country's National Migration Policy (NMP). This Policy Brief specifically addresses conflicting interests and priorities among the various actors; reliance on external funding; and lack of coordination and synchronisation between policies as well as between policy and experience at the local level. Ghana participated in the development of the GCM as well as in the Global Compact on Refugees (GCR). It was also actively involved in the Global Forum on Migration and Development (GFMD), a platform for UN Member States to discuss the opportunities and challenges of migration. Moreover, Ghana committed to submitting a voluntary review of its implementation of the GCM. Accordingly, itsNational Development Planning Commission (NDPC) held a meeting to begin the National Consultation on the GCM on 30 November 2020. Ghana followed up on this by launching the National Coordination Mechanism (NCM) on migration on 28 November 2023, which was set up to strengthen the coordination and coherence of the government's implementation of the GCM in relation to domestic policies and activities related to migration. Ghana also committed to the AU Free Movement Protocol and the ECOWAS Protocol on Free Movement. At domestic level, it passed a comprehensive National Migration Policy (NMP) in 2016 and unveiled other policies addressing specific aspects of migration such as the Labour Migration Policy (2019) and the Diaspora Engagement Policy (2020). In view of the implementation challenges for these international pacts and domestic policies, this Policy Brief recommends that the government of Ghana: Implement international and (sub-)regional frameworks as well as domestic migration policies in Ghana in a holistic manner. Match the ambition for (sub-)regional integration with concrete actions that align domestic policies with the ECOWAS and AU Protocols on Free Movement. Earmark funds for policy implementation instead of relying on external funders. The government needs a clear strategy on how it will achieve the goals of its policies in terms of the source and amount of resources needed. This would reduce the counter-productive tension between internal priorities and external funders' interests and narrow the gap between policy and action. Develop and implement policies that complement the NMP and, in the process, dissuade young people from unsafe and 'irregular' migration. This includes harmonisation of migration policies with policies that address factors that influence the decision to migrate. Enforce compliance with migration policies by actors such as migrant recruitment agencies that continued to recruit migrants for domestic work in the Gulf States even when the government had halted this migration corridor in order to reach bilateral agreements with the Gulf States, meant to ensure that Ghanaian domestic workers in this region would be safe and treated with dignity. |
| Keywords: | Migration policy, international norms, migration governance, localisation, partnerships, interests |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:idospb:299534&r= |
| By: | Dany Bahar (Brown University; Harvard Growth Lab; Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the link between Southwest US border crossings and labor market tightness, measured by the job openings to unemployed ratio, over nearly 25 years (2000–2023). Analyzing monthly data, it finds a strong positive correlation, suggesting that increased border crossings align with greater job availability. Exploiting data across different presidential administrations reveals no statistically significant differences in this relationship, regardless of the President’s party. The findings suggest a natural economic adjustment mechanism in which crossings naturally decrease as the labor market cools. |
| Keywords: | migration, border crossings, labor market tightness |
| Date: | 2024–06–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:695&r= |
| By: | Kim, Yoonjung (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Lee, Cheolwon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Oh, Taehyun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Chorong (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kang, Yooduk (Hankuk University of Foreign Studies) |
| Abstract: | 본 연구에서는 러시아의 우크라이나 침공 이후 EU의 추가 확대 가능성에 대한 고찰을 통해 향후 한-EU 경제협력 관련 정책 시사점을 제시한다. 기존의 EU 확대 관련 연구가 글로벌 금융위기 이전에 주로 수행된 반면, 본 연구는 금융위기 및 유로존 위기와 팬데믹 등을 거치며 나타난 변화를 반영한다는 점에서 차별성을 갖는다. 특히 중동부유럽 국가들의 EU 가입 이후 성과에 대한 평가와 함께 다양한 경제지표 및 거버넌스 지수 분석을 통해 신규 가입 후보국들의 현 상황을 세부적으로 진단하고, 기업 및 산업 구조에 대한 조망을 통해 우리나라의 대EU 진출 전략을 도출하였다. This study assesses the previous enlargement of the EU and investigates the potential enlargement EU in the future. The European Union has established itself as a politically and economically integrated community in the European region, and it continues to evolve. The biggest change in the EU in the last two decades was the massive enlargement of the EU to the countries of Central and Eastern Europe in 2004, when eight Central and Eastern European countries joined the EU together at the same time. The discussion of EU enlargement, which has been stagnant since the last enlargement when Croatia joined the EU, seems to have been revitalized by the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine. As further changes in the EU are becoming increasingly visible, the purpose of this study is to draw implications for Korea’s future strategy to cooperate with the EU candidate countries. To this end, Chapter 2 provides an understanding of the EU’s enlargement process, and Chapter 3 lays the groundwork for future conjectures through an economic and political assessment of existing Central and Eastern European countries since their accession to the EU. In addition, Chapter 4 examines the prospects for the accession of the candidate countries through a diagnosis of their current economies and governance, and Chapter 5 examines Korea’s cooperation with the existing Central and Eastern European countries and the current status of cooperation with the candidate countries. We conclude with the prospects for further enlargement of the EU and policy implications for Korea’s future cooperation in Chapter 6. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | enlargement; EU; Central and Eastern Europe; GDP; trade share; foreign direct investment |
| Date: | 2023–12–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2023_035&r= |
| By: | Federico S. Mandelman; Yang Yu; Francesco Zanetti; Andrei Zlate |
| Abstract: | We document a steady decline in low-skilled immigration that began with the onset of the Great Recession in 2007, which was associated with labor shortages in low-skilled service occupations and a decline in the skill premium. Falling returns to high-skilled jobs coincided with a decline in the educational attainment of native-born workers. We develop and estimate a stochastic growth model with endogenous immigration and training to account for these facts and study macroeconomic performance and welfare. Lower immigration leads to higher wages for low-skilled workers and higher consumer prices. Importantly, the decline in the skill premium discourages the training of native workers, persistently reducing aggregate productivity and welfare. Stimulus policies during the COVID-19 pandemic, amid a widespread shortage of low-skilled immigrant labor, exacerbated the rise in consumer prices and reduced welfare. We show that the 2021-2023 immigration surge helped to partially alleviate existing labor shortages and restore welfare. |
| Date: | 2024–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:1047&r= |
| By: | Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania, NBER, and CEPR); Tomohide Mineyama (International Monetary Fund); Dongho Song (Johns Hopkins University) |
| Abstract: | After decades of rising global economic integration, the world economy is now fragmenting. To measure this phenomenon, we introduce an index of geopolitical fragmentation derived from various empirical indicators. This index is developed using a flexible dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility. We then employ structural vector autoregressions and local projections to assess the causal effects of changes in fragmentation. Our analysis demonstrates that increased fragmentation negatively impacts the global economy, with emerging economies suffering more than advanced ones. Notably, we document a key asymmetry: fragmentation has an immediate negative effect, while the benefits of reduced fragmentation unfold gradually. A sectoral analysis within OECD economies reveals that industries closely linked to global markets —such as manufacturing, construction, finance, and wholesale and retail trade— are adversely affected. Finally, we examine the interaction between fragmentation and the economic dynamics of regional economic blocs, highlighting significant differences in the impacts across various geopolitical blocs. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic factor model, causality, geopolitical fragmentation, fragmentation index |
| JEL: | C11 C33 E00 F01 F2 F4 F6 |
| Date: | 2024–06–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pen:papers:24-015&r= |
| By: | Jang, Youngook (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Lee, Cheolwon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Na, Suyeob (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Lee, Hyun-Jean (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Lim, You-Jin (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 본 보고서에서는 최근 EU 및 유럽 주요국에서 제시하고 있는 경제안보 분야 대중국 전략을 문헌조사, 통계분석, 현지조사, 전문가간담회를 통해 다각도로 분석하였다. EU 및 유럽 주요국이 제시하고 있는 다양한 산업 및 통상 정책에는 중국의 경제적, 정치적 위상 제고에 대응하여 자국의 산업경쟁력을 보호하기 위한 노력이 반영되고 있다. 유럽 주요국의 대중국 전략 변화가 우리 기업에 미치는 영향을 파악하여 대응하는 한편, 우리나라의 대중국 전략을 수립하는 참고자료로 활용할 필요가 있다. This report analyzes the recent strategies of the EU and major European countries regarding economic relations with China, through literature review, statistical analysis, field research, and expert interviews. Chapter 2 of this report examines the background to the recent changes in the public attitudes towards China and ‘China Strategy' of Europe. China’s rising economic and diplomatic profile has led to an intensification of the U.S.-China trade dispute since the mid-2010s. The COVID-19 pandemic has turned the U.S.-China conflict into a competition over values such as democracy, freedom, and human rights. The West has intensified its criticism of the Chinese Communist Party regime, including human rights issues and media control. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, China’s pro-Russian behavior further aggravated European perceptions of China, and countries responded by establishing official ‘China Strategy’. Chapter 2 further examines the trends and determinants of public attitudes towards China in major European countries. The trend of rising anti-China sentiment over the past decade was evident in the data from Eurobarometer, Pew Research Center, and YouGov. Regression analyses showed that the trade deficit is the most significant factor in worsening public perceptions of China, while trade with China itself is effective in improving public perceptions. Institutional factors, such as the rule of law, were not significant in the full sample, but were found to be significant in explaining changes in public attitudes after 2017, when the regime competition with China began to intensify. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | EU; economic security; China; China Strategy |
| Date: | 2023–12–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2023_027&r= |
| By: | Côté, Charles-Emmanuel; Hamamoto, Shotaro; Menkes, Marcin J.; Qian, Xu |
| Abstract: | There is a growing interest for joint interpretations (JIs) of international investment agreements (IIAs) by state parties. Correct legal characterization of the vast array of JIs is critical to their proper use by tribunals in interpreting IIAs. This Perspective argues that a streamlined approach to JIs will encourage states to use them. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:colfdi:299542&r= |
| By: | Na Wei; Wen-Jie Xie; Wei-Xing Zhou |
| Abstract: | With the frequent occurrence of black swan events, global energy security situation has become increasingly complex and severe. Assessing the resilience of the international oil trade network (iOTN) is crucial for evaluating its ability to withstand extreme shocks and recover thereafter, ensuring energy security. We overcomes the limitations of discrete historical data by developing a simulation model for extreme event shock-recovery in the iOTNs. We introduce network efficiency indicator to measure oil resource allocation efficiency and evaluate network performance. Then, construct a resilience index to explore the resilience of the iOTNs from dimensions of resistance and recoverability. Our findings indicate that extreme events can lead to sharp declines in performance of the iOTNs, especially when economies with significant trading positions and relations suffer shocks. The upward trend in recoverability and resilience reflects the self-organizing nature of the iOTNs, demonstrating its capacity for optimizing its own structure and functionality. Unlike traditional energy security research based solely on discrete historical data or resistance indicators, our model evaluates resilience from multiple dimensions, offering insights for global energy governance systems while providing diverse perspectives for various economies to mitigate risks and uphold energy security. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2406.11467&r= |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | This paper outlines and analyses the evolution of the manner in which investment treaties have dealt with the question of importing dispute settlement arrangements from third-party treaties. |
| Date: | 2022–11–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:dafaaa:2022/1-en&r= |
| By: | Hayatullah Ahmadzai; Oliver Morrissey |
| Abstract: | The increasing impact of natural disasters (floods, earthquakes, landslides, and avalanches) in Afghanistan, notably flooding and similar climate shocks, poses a growing concern as vulnerability to climate change intensifies the potential severity of these impacts in future. This paper uses two household surveys (2011/12 and 2013/14) combined with other data to assess the effects of climate shocks (especially floods) on the welfare of agricultural households, allowing also for conflict and price shocks. We evaluate the impacts of shocks on several measures of food security, dietary diversity, household food consumption spending, farm revenue and income comparing affected to non-affected households. The analysis is based on endogenous switching regressions (ESR) and propensity score matching (PSM) allowing for selection bias and addressing endogeneity. Floods are the main shock and have significant adverse effects on food security and welfare indicators. For example, the estimated average treatment effect in 2013-14 implies a decrease of about a third in food consumption expenditures, with similar reductions in household income and farm revenue. The findings highlight the need for better disaster risk reduction and planing strategies to support affected populations to respond to and recover from climate shocks.disaster risk management, conflict, Afghanistan |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notcre:24/04&r= |