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on International Trade |
| By: | PHAM PHUONG NGOC (Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, Hanoi, Vietnam); DAINN WIE (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates trade diversion in Vietnam, driven by the US-China trade war, which provided Vietnamese firms with relatively favorable access to the US market. Analyzing US import data, we observe a substantial rise in imports of targeted goods from Vietnam due to the trade war. Utilizing microdata from Vietnamese firms, we establish empirical evidence that tariff hikes on Chinese products augmented the likelihood of Vietnamese firms in targeted industries becoming exporters. Employing tariff wedges as an instrumental variable, our findings indicate that firms transitioning into exporters witnessed a significant increase in productivity. |
| Keywords: | trade diversion, trade war, export, foreign direct investment |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:23-06&r= |
| By: | Gupta, Pralok (Indian Institute of Foreign Trade); Das, Sanchita Basu (Asian Development Bank); Sharma, Saarthak (Commonwealth Secretariat, London); Domingo, Ma. Veronica (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Pacific developing member countries (DMCs) depend heavily on international tourism, which can promote merchandise exports by reducing trade costs. This paper empirically analyzes tourist inflows as a determinant of merchandise exports for Pacific DMCs by deploying a gravity model technique. Other relevant variables that augment the model are trade agreements, language affinity, visa policies, etc. The paper finds that inbound tourism to Pacific DMCs significantly increases merchandise exports: a 1% increase in tourist inflows is associated with a 0.17% rise in merchandise exports in the region. This relationship is along expected lines, as international tourist arrivals can help reduce trade costs, increasing such exports. If international tourists come from countries with a shared language and that have formed an economic partnership through free trade agreements and easy visa policies, the increase is bigger. Based on the findings, the paper recommends that inbound tourism be used to develop other industries such as garments or souvenir-related manufacturing in countries in the region. These products hold good export potential, provided they can be customized to the tastes and preferences of international tourists. |
| Keywords: | tourism; international trade; Pacific developing member countries |
| JEL: | C33 F14 L83 Z38 |
| Date: | 2024–06–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0732&r= |
| By: | Gao, Longfei; Tang, Yao |
| Abstract: | In a multi-product Melitz model, we demonstrate that after a drop in domestic trade costs, the cost savings on the shipping of domestic intermediate inputs dominate the pressure from increased competition, thus aiding surviving domestic firms in increasing the number of export varieties. The response of export revenue at the product level is heterogeneous; revenue from a firm’s low-markup varieties will increase, while that from high-markup varieties will decrease. Total export revenue of a firm increases if its export varieties or its exports of low-markup products expand significantly. Using 2SLS regressions, we test this theory with data on Chinese manufacturing firms from 2000 to 2007 and find supportive evidence. As access to domestic intermediate inputs improves with the expansion of the railway network, the number of export varieties of domestic firms increases. Meanwhile, revenue per product drops. Because the positive effect on varieties dominates the negative effect on revenue per product, the total export revenue of firms increases on average. Furthermore, the entry of new firms also increases, lending additional support to our theoretical model. |
| Keywords: | export performance, domestic transportation infrastructure, access to intermediate inputs, railway network, Chinese manufacturing firms |
| JEL: | F10 F15 R40 |
| Date: | 2024–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121155&r= |
| By: | Christine Arriola; Przemyslaw Kowalski; Frank van Tongeren |
| Abstract: | This report analyses the broad risks associated with sectoral output disruptions both domestically and abroad, examining several exposure metrics. The results indicate that domestic shocks generally have larger sectoral impacts than foreign shocks. In most cases, foreign production disruptions cause minimal domestic output responses, suggesting that domestic and international linkages, along with economic adjustment mechanisms, tend to dampen rather than amplify foreign shocks. However, a cumulation of adverse shocks can significantly affect specific sectors, with manufacturing sectors are on average much more exposed to foreign output shocks than services and agrifood given their greater internationalisation of output and inputs. Economies with strong backward and forward global value chain links to major foreign economies also tend to be more exposed to foreign shocks. |
| Keywords: | CGE, Exposure risk, Global Value Chains, GVCs, METRO Model, Shock transmission, Supply Chains |
| JEL: | C68 F14 |
| Date: | 2024–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:283-en&r= |
| By: | Hanna Adam; Mario Larch; Jordi Paniagua |
| Abstract: | We quantify the economic impact of a potential secession of Catalonia from Spain. Using a novel dataset of trade flows between 17 Spanish sub-national regions and 142 countries, we estimate the effects of different levels of borders on trade flows and un- cover heterogeneity in country-to-country, region-to-country, region-to-region, and EU border effects. We use a general equilibrium analysis to understand the con- sequences of a potential Catalan secession, considering the associated political un- certainty. In counterfactual experiments, we impose new borders on Catalan trade, potentially within or outside the EU, resulting in a welfare decline for Catalonia and the remaining Spanish regions. |
| Keywords: | international trade; regional trade; border effects; regional independence |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bav:wpaper:231_adamlarchpaniagua&r= |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Carsten Brockhaus; Julian Hinz; Levke Jessen-Thiesen; Hendrik Mahlkow; Patrik Svab |
| Abstract: | This report focuses on Russia's adaptation in its commodity exports during 2023, amidst ongoing international sanctions. It examines the shifts in export and maritime shipping patterns, emphasizing coal, crude oil, and liquefied natural gas, and their redirection towards alternative, non-sanctioning markets. The analysis details Russia's efforts to maintain its commodity exports by leveraging new maritime routes and — possibly — spoofing Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals to avoid detection of ship-to-ship transfers of oil. |
| Keywords: | commodity exports, maritime shipping, ship-to-ship oil transfers |
| JEL: | F14 F51 Q4 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:rusmon:3&r= |
| By: | Brühl, Volker |
| Abstract: | Some observers warn that a high level of economic dependence on China could negatively affect the economic resilience of Western economies and therefore recommend reducing such dependence by gradually decoupling from China. On the other hand, industry leaders emphasise the economic importance of China and warn against any kind of trade conflicts. Against this background, we briefly analyse the development of China's export strategy. We find that the export intensity of the Chinese economy is diminishing and that exports are becoming more diversified overall. In addition, the relative importance of the United States and the European Union as export markets has been reduced, indicating a gradual decoupling of China from Western economies. Conversely, we find that exports to China have become more important, both for the EU and the United States. Although the figures remain at a non-critical level, Europe's export activities could be more diversified as well. |
| JEL: | F01 F14 O1 O53 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfswop:298855&r= |
| By: | Campbell, Douglas; Brodeur, Abel; Johannesson, Magnus; Kopecky, Joseph; Lusher, Lester; Tsoy, Nikita |
| Abstract: | Berger, Easterly, Nunn and Satyanath (2013) find that increased US political influence, arising from Cold War interventions, was used to create a larger export market for American products. They find that after CIA interventions, US imports increased dramatically, and the authors rule out other explanations. We first reproduce all regression tables in Berger et al. (2013), and then test for robustness by controlling for imports from other NATO countries and various forms of US aid, sanctions, by multi-way clustering the errors, and by conducting influential analysis. We find that the impact of CIA interventions on US exports is sensitive to additional controls and omitting outliers, although adding in region*year interactive fixed effects tends to strengthen the results. Overall, we find that the paper's original results are robust with a coefficient in the same direction and significant at 5% in 17% of the robustness checks we ran (although 58% were significant at 10%). We find t/z scores 58% as large as the original study on average. |
| Keywords: | Cold War, Trade, CIA interventions, Globalization and International Relations |
| JEL: | D72 F14 F54 N42 N72 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:131&r= |
| By: | James E. Anderson |
| Abstract: | Intense US-China commercial rivalry is quantified in this paper with novel non-parametric relative resistance sufficient statistics. The accounting method minimizes the demand specification error variance in revealed resistances. China's manufacturing seller incidence falls (seller price rises) 7.6% yearly as China's sales share quadruples over 2000-14. US seller incidence rises 4.1% yearly as US sales share halves. Domestic trade shares closely fit revealed relative resistances with trade elasticity equal to one. Industrial policy pays for itself in suggestive projections. A 10% rise in US 2014 sales share reduces seller incidence 6.0%, exports rise and net benefit is positive. |
| JEL: | F10 F14 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32543&r= |
| By: | Hong, Sungwoo (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Jino (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kang, Jungu (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Park, Mi-Sook (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Lee, Seungho (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 과학기술 진보와 서비스업의 발전에 따라 서비스 무역이 증가하고 있으며, 특히 코로나19 팬데믹 이후 디지털 전환의 가속화로 서비스 무역이 더욱 중요해지고 있다. 글로벌화가 진행되면서 중남미 국가들은 상품 및 서비스 시장 개방을 통해 자국의 경쟁력 향상과 글로벌 가치사슬 참여를 모색하는 것으로 보인다. 이러한 배경에서 본 연구는 서비스 분야에서 한국과 중남미 간 경제협력 방향을 제시하는 것을 목적으로 수행되었다. 이를 위해 중남미 서비스 시장의 개방 정도와 주요 제한 사항을 파악하고, 서비스 무역에서 양 지역간 협력을 강화하기 위한 논리를 제공하기 위해 중남미 국가들의 서비스 시장 개방이 GVC 참여에 미치는 영향을 실증분석을 통해 밝혀냈다. 분석결과, 국내 서비스 관련 규제의 문제점 검토와 개선, 제조업과의 연계를 통한 상품 및 서비스 수출 증대전략 마련, 향후 중남미 국가와의 서비스 협정에 대비한 양허 요청 논리 마련을 정책 제언으로 제시하였다. Since the 2000s, service trade has steadily risen due to the progress in global science and technology, alongside the growth of each country’s service industry. Over the past two decades, countries have persistently worked on liberalizing service trade through negotiations and agreements within the WTO system, as well as through bilateral and multilateral trade agreements. The rapid acceleration of digital transformation, particularly since the onset of COVID-19 pandemic, is anticipated to further elevate the contribution of service trade to the economies of major countries worldwide. Services and the global value chain are intricately interconnected. Services not only serve as a significant input in the manufacturing sector, which is the most complex component of the global value chain, but they also facilitate both forward and backward linkages in the production process. The recent movement undertaken by Latin American countries to open their service markets might be driven by a policy goal to increase involvement in the global value chain, especially focused on the manufacturing industry, while aiming to enhance the competitiveness of their service sector. Currently, Korea’s exports remain predominantly centered on manufacturing-based product trade, posing challenges in enhancing competitiveness within the service sector. This pattern is notably reflected in Korea’s trade with Latin America. Exports from Korea to Latin America primarily revolve around manufacturing-oriented product trade, with limited engagement in service-related trade and collaboration between Korea and Latin American nations. As global economic recovery stalls due to increased protectionism and a sluggish export environment for Korea, there’s a shift in approach by both the government and companies. They are moving away from the previous Korea-Latin America cooperation model, which was primarily focused on manufacturing-centered product trade, to instead expand into service trade and innovate new solutions within the service sector. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | latin american nations; service market opening; global value chain involvement |
| Date: | 2023–12–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2023_016&r= |
| By: | Maryna Tverdostup (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Over the past few decades, immigration has become the primary factor contributing to population growth in the European Union (EU) due to rapid population ageing and declining fertility rates. However, the traditional migration source countries – namely, the EU countries in Central and East Europe (EU-CEE) and the EU neighbourhood countries – have limited potential to supply much-needed labour to Western Europe due to own their grim population prospects. Immigration from non-EU, non-European Free Trade Association (EFTA) or non-EU candidate countries as of 2015 (i.e. Georgia, Moldova, Turkey and Ukraine) appears to be the only factor that can prevent population decline in the long run, as third-country nationals are, on average, younger than natives or immigrants from the EU neighbourhood. However, current evidence suggests that higher immigration has only a limited capacity to stabilise population decline and offset labour shortages in the EU countries most affected by negative demographic trends, as they receive fewer immigrants relative to other EU countries. Moreover, the labour market integration of immigrants from non-traditional source countries, including Middle Eastern and African countries, has proved challenging for both legal and infrastructural reasons. This has resulted in an immense pool of untapped talent and skills, which will require the appropriate policy steps to be fully identified and effectively employed in the labour market. These policies, like the ones proposed in this report, will become increasingly important as the EU moves steadily towards new immigration source regions. |
| Keywords: | demographic trends, labour shortages, migration, refugees, integration policies |
| JEL: | J11 J15 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:78&r= |
| By: | Steven Cassimon; Antonella Liberatore; Andres Fiallos |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the 2024 version of the OECD International Transport and Insurance Cost of Merchandise Trade (ITIC) database, offering insights into bilateral international transport and insurance costs across more than 200 countries and their trading partners. Covering over 1 200 products from 1995 to 2022, the database combines officially reported information with estimates based on a gravity model. The model operates at a detailed six-digit Harmonised System (HS) product code level, subsequently aggregated into four-digit HS product code categories for analysis. The findings of ITIC 2024 indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic had a more significant impact on international transport and insurance costs for trade between countries located in different continents compared to trade between partners within the same continent. Additionally, they confirm that trade costs have exhibited a declining trend during the study period, and that the CIF/FOB margins vary among different reporting entities, trading partners, and products. |
| Keywords: | CIF-FOB margin, gravity model, International Trade, Transport and Insurance costs |
| JEL: | C23 F14 L91 |
| Date: | 2024–06–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stdaaa:2024/05-en&r= |
| By: | Cao, Cong |
| Abstract: | China’s remarkable rise as an international technology and innovation powerhouse comes courtesy of domestic efforts to upgrade its scientific enterprise. In this brief, Cong Cao, a professor in innovation studies at Nottingham University Ningbo China, argues that the globalization of science has also played a significant role, fostering links between Chinese and international researchers, allowing Chinese students to study abroad, and attracting foreign direct investment to China’s research sector. However, as pressures in Western countries to decouple from China mount, the future of China’s science, technology, and innovation system faces strong headwinds. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, china, innovation, globalization, study abroad, foreign direct investments |
| Date: | 2024–05–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:globco:qt74j7h65s&r= |
| By: | JaeBin Ahn; Shekhar Aiyar; Andrea F. Presbitero |
| Abstract: | This paper provides cross-country firm-level evidence on productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:wpaper:node_10134&r= |
| By: | Yuqing Xing (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan) |
| Abstract: | Chinese processing exports use imported intermediates more intensively than its ordinary exports. The share of processing exports in the Chinese exports to high income countries is much higher than that to low income ones. That heterogeneity suggests that the domestic value added of Chinese processing exports differs from that of ordinary exports, and the domestic value added of Chinese bilateral exports should vary across its trading partners. In this study I estimate the domestic value added of Chinese processing exports, ordinary exports, total exports and bilateral exports to 150 countries from 2004 to 2018, giving consideration to the heterogeneity. The estimates indicate that the domestic value added of processing exports was 30.1% in 2004, about 55 percentage points lower than that of ordinary exports. From 2004 to 2018, the domestic value added of total Chinese exports rose from 54.5% to 63.7%. However, the significant disparity in the domestic value added between processing and ordinary exports was persistent during the period. The domestic value added of Chinese exports also varied significantly across 150 trading partners. In 2004, it ranged from 39.5% to 84.1%. Generally, Chinese exports to developing countries were embedded with higher domestic value added than that to developed countries. Compared with the Chinese domestic value added reported by the OECD TiVA, the estimates of this study are 20 percentage lower on average. |
| Keywords: | China, GVC, Domestic Value added |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:22-12&r= |
| By: | Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki; Kuusela, Olli-Pekka; Kuusi, Tero |
| Abstract: | Abstract The new era of geopolitics and geoeconomy significantly alters the economic landscape and the operating environment. It is already clear that industrial policies and barriers to international trade increasingly influence the location of investment decisions. These trends challenge the foundations of the international division of labor. Our report outlines the key drivers, assumptions, and policy actions behind these changes. In addition, the report provides recommendations and key principles for a small open economy, such as Finland, on how to navigate the changing landscape. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, Industrial policy, Globalization, Fragmentation |
| JEL: | F15 F12 F41 L5 |
| Date: | 2024–06–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:report:150&r= |
| By: | Ana Maria Santacreu |
| Abstract: | Excluding China, foreign patent applications have narrowed the gap with domestic patent applications, suggesting a global trend toward cross-border patenting. |
| Keywords: | patents; patent applications |
| Date: | 2024–06–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:98379&r= |
| By: | Carlos G\'oes |
| Abstract: | Can trade integration induce product innovation? I document that countries that joined the European Union (EU) started producing more product varieties, investing more in R&D, and trading more compared to candidate countries that did not join at a given horizon. Additionally, I show that a plausibly exogenous increase in market access increases the probability of a given country starting production of and exporting a given product. To rationalize this reduced-form evidence, I propose a new quantitative framework that integrates the forces of specialization and market size. This is a dynamic general equilibrium model of frictional trade and endogenous growth with arbitrarily many asymmetric countries that nests the Eaton-Kortum model of trade and the Romer growth model as special cases. The key result is an analytical expression to decompose gains from trade into dynamic and static components. In this framework, the product innovation growth rate increases with higher market access. Finally, a quantitative version of the model suggests that: (a) the EU enlargement increased its long-run yearly growth rate by about 0.10pp; and (b) dynamic gains can account for between 65-90% of total welfare gains from trade. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2406.08727&r= |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Lisa Scheckenhofer; Camille Semelet; Feodora Teti |
| Abstract: | Nearly two years after the start of the war in Ukraine, the report gives an overview of the current state of the Russian economy, with a focus on the fiscal situation, external balances, and the effects of Western sanctions on Russia’s trade with the EU and selected third countries. Increased scrutiny of companies from third countries violating the energy sanctions led to a renewed widening of the price discount on Russian oil during the last few months of 2023. However, despite this and heavy military spending, last year’s fiscal deficit was kept under control and primarily covered from the sovereign National Welfare Fund. EU exports to Russia of sanctioned economically critical (EC) goods and common high-priority (CHP) items have virtually stalled, indicating that the sanctions are effectively preventing direct exports. However, third countries, notably China, Hong Kong, Türkiye and the CIS countries, have increased their market shares and become Russia’s most important suppliers of missing EC goods and CHP items. Our findings suggest a particularly high likelihood of sanctions evasion via such CIS countries as Armenia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, and to a lesser extent via Türkiye and China. |
| Keywords: | sovereign fund, energy sanctions, economically critically goods, common high priority items, trade sanctions, sanctions evasion |
| JEL: | F14 F51 H6 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:rusmon:4&r= |
| By: | Jang, Youngook (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Yoonjung (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); lee, Cheolwon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Oh, Taehyun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Lee, Hyun-Jean (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Lim, You-Jin (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Cho-Rong (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Jun, Hae-Won (Korea National Diplomatic Academy) |
| Abstract: | 본 보고서에서는 EU가 내세운 ‘개방형 전략적 자율성’ 기조가 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 전후 공급망, 에너지 전환, 인적 교류, 안보 통합의 영역에서 어떻게 구현되는지 고찰하였다. 미중 전략경쟁, 코로나19 팬데믹, 전쟁 등 최근의 통상환경 변화에 대한 EU의 정책 대응을 현지조사, 문헌조사, 통계분석 등을 통해 폭넓게 분석하였으며, 이를 통해 한국 정부와 기업이 활용할 수 있는 기회요인과 맞대응해야 할 도전요인, 그리고 한-EU 협력 유망 영역을 제시하였다. This report examines how EU’s ‘open strategic autonomy’ has been developed and realized facing recent changes in the global trade landscape, especially in areas such as supply chain, energy transition, immigration, and security integration. In response to the fragmentation and blocization of the global economy, which manifested in the US-China strategic competition, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine war, the EU has sought to strengthen the competitiveness of its own high-tech and strategic industries and reduce its dependence on foreign countries (strategic autonomy). At the same time, it seeks to continue cooperation with like-minded countries with shared values and interests to address challenges that require global effort (openness). Chapter 2 defines open strategic autonomy in more detail and investigates how it has been implemented in the supply chain sector. The industrial and trade policies that have been published since the inauguration of the current EU Presidency in 2019 embody the concept of open strategic autonomy, which is defined as “strengthening competitiveness Executive Summary in the region to defend EU interests without relying on other countries, while continuing to cooperate with partners who share the values and interests.” After the Russia-Ukraine War, the EU continued its efforts to identify areas of weakness in the EU’s competitiveness and to localize and diversify its supply chains. This strategic shift was reflected in a series of supply chain legislation such as the European Chips Act, Critical Raw Materials Act, Net-Zero Industrial Act, and Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive. The EU sets targets for the share of home-produced goods and provides various support measures such as subsidies, tax benefits, R&D investment, and workforce training. In addition, the legislation emphasizes bilateral and multilateral strategic partnerships, reflecting the open strategic autonomy of the region to continue cooperation with like-minded countries. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | Russian-Ukraine War; EU; Open Strategic Autonomy; energy transition; refugee influx; security integration |
| Date: | 2023–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2023_008&r= |
| By: | Lee, Jin-Myon (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Kang, Ji Hyun (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Indonesia is becoming a more and more important player in the global economy due to its large and growing population, abundant natural resources, strategic location, emerging market potential, investment in infrastructure, and membership in key regional economic blocs. Bilateral trade between this new regional player and South Korea has been steadily growing, encompassing a wide range of goods and services, and Indonesia offers attractive investment opportunities for Korean businesses across various sectors. Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol, attending the Korea-Indonesia Business Roundtable held in Indonesia in 2023, presented a development strategy for a new 50-year partnership between the two countries. Yoon stressed the potential for fruitful cooperation between Indonesian and Korean companies in advanced industries, including the electric vehicle (EV) and battery sectors, given Indonesia’s status as the largest ASEAN economy and its vast reserves of critical minerals. However, despite the two country’s longstanding economic relationship, key challenges remain, such as stagnation and instability. In this paper, we analyze major trends and core features of the economic cooperation between Korea and Indonesia, focusing on trade and investment. We then address some of the strengths and weaknesses of the cooperative relationship. Based on this, conclude the paper by describing the implications for a more sustainable economic partnership. |
| Keywords: | Korea-Indonesia relationship; natural resources; critical mineral resources; economic cooperation; Korea-Indonesia trade; Foreign Direct Investment; FDI; industrial development; industrial cooperation; strategic collaboration; supply chain stability; Korea; KIET |
| JEL: | F00 F10 F13 F15 F20 F21 F23 |
| Date: | 2024–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:2024_008&r= |
| By: | Zareei, Afsaneh (Stockholm University); Falahi, Mohammad Ali (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad); Wadensjö, Eskil (Stockholm University); Sadati, Saeed Malek (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad) |
| Abstract: | Sanctions have severe adverse effects on societies. Even though sanctions are used against governments, the population is punished for its government's behavior. Sanctions can create problems due to international migration. Iran is an unique case study because it faced the most and hardest sanctions in the world until February 2022. Many negative effects on the economy have been observed such as losing the Rial's value against the US Dollar by 80 percent, increasing poverty, and reducing exports and imports. At the same time, Iran had a very fast growth of emigration with an increase of 141 percent. Sanctions have been imposed on Iran's economy in different ways, but so far, it has not been determined how each type of sanctions will affect emigration. The aim of this study is to study the relationship between different kinds of economic sanctions and labor emigration using the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model. Different types of sanctions as oil and nonoil exports and three different import sanctions on consumer, capital, and intermediate goods are considered. The results show that sanctions on nonoil exports are most influencing emigration. Sanctions on the imports of intermediate and consumer goods, as well as sanctions on oil exports, are in the next steps, but not as much as the non-oil exports. It can be noticed that out of approximately 24 million people working in Iran, up to 4 percent of the working force have a desire to leave the country as migrant workers due to the sanctions. |
| Keywords: | international sanctions, labor emigration, DSGE Models, Iran |
| JEL: | B22 C02 C11 C68 F22 P00 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17062&r= |
| By: | Rodrigo Adao; Arnaud Costinot; Dave Donaldson |
| Abstract: | The primary motivation behind quantitative modeling in international trade and many other fields is to shed light on the economic consequences of policy changes. To help assess and potentially strengthen the credibility of such quantitative predictions we introduce an IV-based goodness-of-fit measure that provides the basis for testing causal predictions in arbitrary general-equilibrium environments as well as for estimating the average misspecification in these predictions. As an illustration of how to use our IV-based goodness-of-fit measure in practice, we revisit the welfare consequences of Trump’s trade war predicted by Fajgelbaum et al. (2020). |
| Keywords: | international trade, urban economics, testing economic models |
| Date: | 2024–06–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2002&r= |
| By: | Lu, Yue; Ma, Minghui; Gao, Longfei; Tang, Yao |
| Abstract: | In a trade model incorporating within-firm productivity differences in intermediate products, we show that specialization in the production of intermediate products enabled by decreased trade costs can reduce firm-level emissions. Using firm-level data from China (1998-2012), we provide supporting evidence in the context of domestic trade. Increased domestic trade integration, associated with the expansion of China's railway network, reduces emissions of sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide, and other pollutants. Counterfactual analysis indicates that without the 1.88% (1, 203-kilometer) railway expansion in 2005—--the year in the middle of our sample period, as an example---national SO2 emissions would have been 0.43% higher. |
| Keywords: | emissions, market access, railway network, Chinese manufacturing firms |
| JEL: | F18 Q56 R40 |
| Date: | 2024–06–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121156&r= |
| By: | Dimitris Drakopoulos; Mr. Yibin Mu; Dmitry Vasilyev; Mr. Mauricio Villafuerte |
| Abstract: | Cross-border payment inefficiencies are a significant barrier to trade both within Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and between LAC and other regions. This paper provides a comprehensive review of historical efforts undertaken by various countries within the LAC region to address these challenges. We also explore the potential of recent financial innovations, such as digital currencies and blockchain technology, to enhance cross-border payments. While new technologies do not substitute for prudent and credible macroeconomic policies, leveraging these technologies can help LAC countries reduce transaction costs and times, thus enhancing economic efficiency and fostering deeper regional and global trade relationships. |
| Keywords: | Cross-Border Payments; Financial Innovation; International Trade; Economic Integration. |
| Date: | 2024–06–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/119&r= |
| By: | Simola, Heli |
| Abstract: | Russia has long aimed at reducing its dependency on imported technology. These aspirations intensified after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and sanctions restricting Russia's access to foreign technology. We analyze Russian company surveys and a small sample of product-level statistical data to evaluate recent trends in Russia's import substitution of technology products. For the goods included in our sample, import substitution seems quite limited. Instead, Russian companies have replaced many sanctioned imports with similar or equivalent goods from other countries. Shortfalls of certain goods suggest unavailability of adequate import substitutes and the inability of domestic production to make up for the lost imports. |
| Keywords: | Russia, imports, sanctions, technology |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:297996&r= |
| By: | Kenichi Kawasaki (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan) |
| Abstract: | Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have continued to increase. The targets of GHG emissions reduction under the Paris Agreement have been far from achievement. Carbon pricing has been implemented but it is limited, covering less than a quarter of global GHG emissions. This paper presents an overview of recent developments in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and investigates quantitatively the relative significance of the impact of carbon pricing, using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The results of model simulations suggest that the impact of carbon pricing in the European Union (EU) member states and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries would be limited compared with that of a global initiative. Carbon tax (once introduced in a strong enough form worldwide, in particular if it included developing countries) would be effective for substantially reducing global CO2 emissions. However, the adverse economic impact of carbon pricing would be serious and much larger than the magnitude of possible carbon tax revenue. On the other hand, the impact of a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) would be minor compared with that of a carbon tax, regardless of the coverage of countries. Trade effects of a CBAM could more or less be offset by trade liberalization. The economic and trade impact of carbon pricing would vary by region as well as by sector. Climate and trade policies would need to be well designed and based on sound quantitative analysis. |
| Keywords: | carbon tax, carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), European Union (EU), Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:22-13&r= |
| By: | Kaz Miyagiwa (Department of Economics, Florida International University); Yunyun Wan (Department of Humanities and Regional Studies, Akita University, Akita, Japan) |
| Abstract: | A search-theoretic model of illegal immigration is presented to examine the effect of deportation and other policy measures on unemployment, crimes and immigration flows. It is found that deporting immigrants who commit crimes lowers the unemployment rate and causes an increase in native labor force. However, if hiring immigrants is more profitable than hiring natives, deportation increases the immigrant population and the number of crimes they commit. Anti-crime policy and higher minimum wages generate similar effects. |
| Keywords: | illegal immigration, deportation, unemployment, crimes, minimum wages |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fiu:wpaper:2408&r= |
| By: | Haibo Wang; Lutfu S. Sua; Jun Huang; Jaime Ortiz; Bahram Alidaee |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has compelled multinational corporations to diversify their global supply chain risk and to relocate their factories to Southeast Asian countries beyond China. Such recent phenomena provide a good opportunity to understand the factors that influenced offshore decisions in the last two decades. We propose a new conceptual framework based on econometric approaches to examine the relationships between these factors. Firstly, the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) for multi-way cointegration analysis by a Johansen test as well as the embedding Granger causality analysis to examine offshore decisions--innovation, technology readiness, infrastructure, foreign direct investment (FDI), and intermediate imports. Secondly, a Quantile Vector Autoregressive (QVAR) model is used to assess the dynamic connectedness among Southeast Asian countries based on the offshore factors. This study explores a system-wide experiment to evaluate the spillover effects of offshore decisions. It reports a comprehensive analysis using time-series data collected from the World Bank. The results of the cointegration, causality, and dynamic connectedness analyses show that a subset of Southeast Asian countries have spillover effects on each other. These countries present a multi-way cointegration and dynamic connectedness relationship. The study contributes to policymaking by providing a data-driven innovative approach through a new conceptual framework. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2406.07525&r= |
| By: | Kim, C.K. (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Advancements in production technology have significantly improved automobile performance and lifespan, nearly doubling the average useful life of a vehicle in Korea to 16 years in 2021, up from just 8.3 in 2000. However, a consumer survey by a secondhand vehicle sales company in 2023 found that Koreans typically change their vehicles every three to six years. This suggests that most vehicles are traded several times over their lifecycle, and in Korea, this includes export abroad. Used vehicle exports extend the vehicle’s life and contribute to the formation of a circular economy, and also minimize the amount of resource waste generated in the scrapping process. In this paper I explore the rapidly evolving used vehicle market, focusing on exports, and provide a suite of policy recommendations based on my findings to improve the competitiveness of Korea’s used vehicle exports. |
| Keywords: | used vehicles; used cars; secondhand vehicles; used vehicle exports; circular economy; export regulations; SMEs; used vehicle inspection; used vehicle quality certification; Korean used vehicles; Hyundai; Kia; Genesis; automotive industry; Automobile Management Act; Korea; KIET |
| JEL: | F10 F13 L62 |
| Date: | 2024–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:2024_006&r= |
| By: | Piero Stanig; Italo Colantone; Gianmarco Ottaviano |
| Abstract: | Is there a popular backlash against globalization? When did it start and in which forms? What do we know about its causes? We address these questions in the context of advanced democracies. We see the “globalization backlash” as the political shift of voters and parties in a protectionist and isolationist direction, with substantive implications on governments’ leaning and enacted policies. We discuss the empirical evidence on the backlash. We develop a theoretical discussion within the framework of the crisis of embedded liberalism. We nest within this framework theoretical results from international economics showing how the backlash may arise within standard trade models when considering the “social footprint” of globalization. These theoretical insights are consistent with available empirical evidence pointing to the role of globalization as a driver of the backlash. Yet, globalization is only one of the drivers of the backlash. There are other economic factors playing a similar role, such as technological change, fiscal austerity, and immigration. Moreover, cultural concerns such as status-threat, authoritarianism, and nativism do play a relevant role, with a significant interplay with economic drivers. This calls for a broad and comprehensive approach to the backlash, both from an academic and from a policy making perspective. Classification-JEL Keywords |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp24226&r= |
| By: | Bown , Chad P. (Peterson Institute and Centre for Economic Policy Research); Conconi, Paola (Oxford University); Erbahar , Aksel (Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute); Trimarchi, Lorenzo (Université de Namur) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that the Electoral College system used to elect presidents of the United States (US) distorts US federal policies in favor of key industries in swing states. Using detailed data on US trade policies during the past few decades, we find that the level of trade protection granted to an industry during a presidential term depends on its importance in expected swing states in elections at the end of that term. Crucially, swing-state politics only matters during first terms, when the incumbent president can be reelected. We next examine the effects of politically motivated trade protection, exploiting exogenous changes in the identity of swing states across terms and heterogeneous exposure to these political shocks across industries. We find that swing-state politics generates winners and losers: it fosters growth in protected industries, but hampers growth in downstream industries. |
| Keywords: | Electoral College; swing states; trade protection; supply chains |
| JEL: | D72 D78 F13 |
| Date: | 2024–06–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0729&r= |
| By: | Tom Schmitz (Queen Mary University of London and CEPR); Italo Colantone (Bocconi University, Baffi-Carefin Research Centre, CESifo and FEEM); Gianmarco Ottaviano (Bocconi University, Baffi-Carefin Research Centre, CEP, CEPR and IGIER) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the aggregate impact of air pollution regulations introduced by the US Environmental Protection Agency in the early 2000s. We first provide regression evidence on the regulations’ effects across industries and local labor markets. We then use these results to calibrate a quantitative model allowing for general equilibrium spillovers through trade, migration, industry switching, input-output linkages and emission externalities. Our model implies that regulations lowered emissions by 11.1%, but also destroyed between 228’000 and 267’000 jobs. Ignoring general equilibrium spillovers and naively extrapolating from our regressions overestimates job losses in polluting industries, but underestimates job losses in clean industries. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Policy, Fine Particles, Clean Air Act, Employment, Trade |
| JEL: | E24 Q50 Q53 |
| Date: | 2024–06–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:980&r= |
| By: | Arsenii Shcherbov |
| Abstract: | Recent years have spurred significant migration movements, underscoring the need to understand their impacts. This study explores a widely-debated correlation between crime and migration. Specifically, I investigate the 2014 migration wave, studying the response of Russian crime rates to the influx of immigrants from Ukraine. I approximate local crime rates using court data on sentencing decisions and describe relevant migration flows with internet search activity. The application of the difference-in-differences method reveals positive effects for property crime sentencing and the heterogeneous response of violent crime sentencing. The findings of this study are policyrelevant and could prove beneficial in understanding and mitigating the effects of future migration waves. |
| Keywords: | Crime, Migration |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp782&r= |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | The growing participation of state enterprises in industrial supply chains raises concerns over the implications for global markets of the subsidies that some of these companies receive. New firm-level evidence from the OECD MAGIC database shows that state enterprises are relatively larger recipients of industrial subsidies than their private competitors. They can also benefit from indirect government support, such as favourable treatment under competition rules and government procurement. Despite these advantages, evidence indicates that state enterprises in manufacturing tend to underperform financially. The report provides unprecedented evidence about the role certain state enterprises play as providers of subsidies, such as when providing financing and inputs to other firms at below-market prices. The analysis concludes by describing the implications of these findings for trade rules and the governance of state-owned enterprises. |
| Keywords: | Bank loans, Competition, Level playing field, Market distorsions, State-owned enterprises |
| JEL: | F13 F23 H25 H81 O25 |
| Date: | 2024–06–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:282-en&r= |
| By: | Renli Wu; Christopher Esposito; James Evans |
| Abstract: | Major shifts in the global system of science and technology are destabilizing the global status order and demonstrating the capacity for emerging countries like China and India to exert greater influence. In order to measure changes in the global scientific system, we develop a framework to assess the hierarchical position of countries in the international scientific collaboration network. Using a machine-learning model to identify the leaders of 5, 966, 623 scientific teams that collaborated across international borders, we show that Chinese scientists substantially narrowed their leadership deficit with scientists from the US, UK, and EU between 1990 and 2023 in absolute terms. Consequently, China and the US are on track to reach an equal number of team leaders engaged in bilateral collaborations between 2027 and 2028. Nevertheless, Chinese progress has been considerably slower in per-collaborator terms: after adjusting for the number of non-leaders from each country, our models do not predict parity between the US and China until after 2087. These dynamics extend to 11 critical technology areas central to ongoing diplomacy between the two nations, such AI, Semiconductors, and Advanced Communications, and to China's scientific leadership with respect to the European Union and the United Kingdom. Thus, while China's elite scientists are achieving leadership in the international scientific community, China's scientific enterprise continues to face developmental constraints. We conclude by reviewing several steps that Chinese science is taking to overcome these constraints, by increasing its engagement in scientific training and research in signatory nations to the Belt and Road Initiative. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2406.05917&r= |
| By: | Massimo Motta; Volker Nocke; Martin Peitz |
| Abstract: | With the increased risks of international trade frictions and geopolitical disruptions merger control that does not account for such risks may be too lenient. This article provides a proposal on how competition authorities should systematically assess mergers based on a risk assessment and how they should adjust their market share and UPP analysis. The authors also argue that the approach fits well into recent developments of merger analyses in the European Union. |
| Keywords: | merger control, market shares, UPP, resilience, geopolitical risks |
| JEL: | K21 L40 L13 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_568&r= |
| By: | Schulze, Meike |
| Abstract: | The recent political consensus on the European Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) marks a significant step towards a common raw materials policy within the European Union (EU). Against the backdrop of increasing geopolitical tensions, the EU aims to bolster its "strategic autonomy" within its raw material supply chains. To achieve this goal, it is essential for the EU and its member states to enhance collaboration with mineralrich third countries. The current geopolitical environment will require a concerted effort on the part of the EU with respect to its raw material diplomacy, as only through such effective engagement will the EU be able to diplomatically and programmatically implement raw material partnerships that appeal to third countries. |
| Keywords: | geo-economic fragmentation, EU's raw materials policy, Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), supply chains |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:297220&r= |
| By: | Tom Schmitz; Italo Colantone; Gianmarco Ottaviano |
| Keywords: | Environmental Policy, Employment, Trade, Clean Air Act |
| JEL: | E24 Q50 Q53 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp24225&r= |
| By: | Lucie Coufalová (Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Economics, Brno, Czech Republic); Fanny H. Dellinger (WIFO, Vienna, Austria); Peter Huber (WIFO, Vienna, Austria); Štěpán Mikula (Masaryk University, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Department of Economics, Brno, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the impacts of three major unexpected border regime changes that occurred during the course of 20th century on population growth along the Austrian-Czech border. Using historical municipal-level census data reaching back to 1880, we find no effects of the dissolution of the Austro-Hungarian Empire (1919) but strong and oppositely signed effects of the drawing (1948) and the fall (1989) of the Iron Curtain in both countries. Our findings indicate that border regimes affect population growth via economic as well as non-economic mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | Population growth, border regions, economic geography |
| JEL: | N94 R12 R23 J11 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mub:wpaper:2024-03&r= |
| By: | Han, Hyongmin (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Ro, Yoon-Jae (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Doyeon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Pek, Jong-Hun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Soeun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 서비스 산업은 인도 국내총생산(GDP)에서 가장 높은 비중을 차지하는 산업이다. 미국, 일본 등 주요국은 최근 인도서비스 산업의 구조적 변화에 발맞추어 해당 부문에서 협력의 폭을 넓히고 있다. 본 연구는 상대적으로 저조한 한-인도 서비스 산업 협력을 위한 정책 방향과 구체적 과제 도출을 목적으로 한다. 이를 위하여 본 연구에서는 인도 서비스 산업의 구조, 인도 정부의 서비스 산업 정책, 주요국의 대인도 서비스 산업 협력, 그리고 인도에 진출한 국내외 서비스 기업의 정책 수요를 분석하였다. The service industry has the largest share in India’s domestic production. While the Modi government has pursued various policies to grow the manufacturing sector, the role of services industry in the Indian economy still continues. IT sector has been one of the important sources for India’s service sector, but now software, internet services, and e-commerce have emerged as important sectors in India. This means that the services industry in India is undergoing structural changes in recent years. Responding to these structural shifts, many countries start to collaborate with Indian service sector. Yet, the cooperation between South Korea and India is mainly limited to the manufacturing sector. This research on India’s services industry aims to delve deeply into India’s ongoing industrial structural changes and related policies, analyze the changing demands within India’s service sector, and suggest a new direction for South Korea-India collaboration focused on manufacturing. Based on quantitative and qualitative data analysis of India’s services industry, it is evident that a diverse range of service industries are emerging in India beyond the IT and software sectors. The productivity of Indian service firms and the share of skilled labor are increasing, and there’s a notable structural shift with a significant expansion in the opening up of the service sector to foreign direct investment. India’s service sector generates the most added value within the country, and its job creation is growing significantly compared to other industries. Additionally, there’s been an increase in exports, foreign direct investment, and integration with global supply chains. Traditionally, India’s services industry was dominated by retail and public services. More recently, however, corporate facility management and business support services, including R&D, equipment leasing, data management, and marketing, have emerged as key players. Financial and insurance services and educational services, are also on the rise. Indian domestic companies in retail, telecommunication services, transportation, cultural services, and financial services are experiencing an increase in their average total factor productivity, suggesting that various service domains within India are spearheading the growth of the country’s services industry. Additionally, the proportion of highly skilled workers in India’s service sector is steadily increasing. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | India; service industry; indusrial structural change; service industry policy; South Korea-India cooperation |
| Date: | 2023–12–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2023_007&r= |
| By: | Théo Aphecetche; Maria Bianchi; Guergana Stanoeva |
| Abstract: | Global imbalances, as measured by current account surpluses and deficits, had been on a narrowing path for several years, before widening in 2020 and 2021. While there is nothing wrong per se, excessive current account imbalances, if unaddressed, might pose serious risks to the global economy. These Brief analyses the recent dynamics in global imbalances in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and discusses the possible effects of the ongoing Russia’ war in Ukraine. It notes that while the recent global imbalances widening appears to reflect mostly transitory shocks, uncertainty and downside risks to the global outlook remain exceptionally high. It also underlines that while Emerging Markets Economies’ macroeconomic fundamentals appear more resilient to the current monetary tightening, weaknesses remain. The Brief also considers how climate change as a systemic risk could jeopardise the fragile equilibrium of macroeconomic fundamentals. Finally, the Brief presents possible macroeconomic and structural policy options to reduce excess current account imbalances in a growth-friendly manner and to prevent or cushion possible risks. |
| Keywords: | Global Current Account Imbalances; COVID-19 Pandemic; Russia’s War in Ukraine, Climate Change, Global Economic Governance; International Cooperation; Multilateralism; Economy and Finance, G20, Aphecetche, Bianchi, Stanoeva. |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:euf:ecobri:074&r= |