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on International Trade |
| By: | Wani, Nassir Ul Haq; Grover, Veena |
| Abstract: | India faces significant challenges in trade policy, including global economic contraction, protectionism, delayed implementation of mega-trade agreements, and concerns related to agriculture and fisheries subsidies. To achieve its policy objectives, the government and industry, particularly the manufacturing sector, must be prepared to seize opportunities and increase their involvement. The Indian government recently unveiled its Foreign Trade Policy 2023, aiming for a $2 trillion export objective by 2030. However, India faces numerous challenges, including a limited understanding of trade policy, an inadequately developed manufacturing sector, unsatisfactory outcomes from regional trade agreements, and constrained relations with its primary trading partners. Economic reforms that produce a technologically innovative, open, and competitive economy are needed to support India's trade policy framework. Implementing initiatives like the Make in India programme can increase the manufacturing sector's contribution to the country's gross domestic product. The new Foreign Trade Policy 2023 should focus on establishing long-lasting international alliances with India's principal trading partners, eliminating obstacles impeded by product and service flow, and promoting enhanced integration into worldwide supply chains. India should also adapt to international standards regarding technical trade barriers and phytosanitary measures. With the current pause or lack of progress in certain trade agreements, India has a significant amount of time to ensure adherence to these standards and re-establish the multilateral trading system's pre-eminence. This revival aligns with India's interests and benefits from the most-favoured-nation treatment facilitated by WTO-anchored multilateral trading systems. |
| Keywords: | Trade Policy, India, Subsidies, FTP 2023, Export Promotion, WTO |
| JEL: | F14 |
| Date: | 2024–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120991&r= |
| By: | Kaan Celebi; Werner Roeger; Paul J. J. Welfens |
| Abstract: | This paper re-evaluates the US external deficit which has considerably widened over the 1990s. US safe asset provision to the rest of the world is the dominant explanation for the persistent nature of the US external deficit. We suggest that apart from the safe asset hypothesis, there is an important role for technology shocks originating in US multinational companies that have a strong foreign direct investment presence. It is shown that technology shocks that increase the market value of FDI assets are loosening the sustainability constraint on the trade balance and therefore generate persistent trade balance deficits. Our analysis suggests that this channel can explain why the US tech-boom in the 1990s has contributed significantly to the increase of the US current account deficit and its duration. Technology shocks have been neglected as a reason for longer lasting current account deficits since for these shocks, standard open economy DSGE models can only generate temporary external deficits. We show that our enhanced DSGE-model – covering both trade and FDI – not only matches well the dynamics of the US external balance but can also account for the observed evolution of FDI related components of the external balance. In particular, US technology shocks can match the increase in net FDI income and a rising FDI capital balance. Our analysis suggests that FDI flows and their determinants should play a more important role in monitoring external imbalances by international organizations. |
| Keywords: | Foreign direct investment, current account imbalance, USA, DSGE, technology shocks |
| JEL: | D5 F21 F23 F32 O3 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2074&r= |
| By: | Charlotte Emlinger; Karine Latouche |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impact of the inclusion of GIs in bilateral agreements on French exports of foodstuffs. We rely on a unique dataset of firms and products concerned by Geographical Indications (GIs) in the French agri-food industry (excluding wine) for 2012-2019, merged with firm-product-destination level data from French Customs and the French National Institute of Statistics. Controlling for market and firm characteristics, we compare the exports of GI firms with those of non-GI firms before and after the signing of the 13 agreements (25 destination countries) that include a list of GIs to be protected. We show that the protection of GIs in EU RTA helps French firms to reach new markets and to sell their products at higher price, but it depends on the level of protection provided by the agreement. |
| Keywords: | Geographical Indications;Regional Trade Agreements;Trade Margins |
| JEL: | F10 F14 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2024-05&r= |
| By: | TAGUCHI, HIROYUKI |
| Abstract: | Servicification in global value chains (GVCs) in emerging and developing Asian economies has become a trend recently. However, there have been no scientific studies to elucidate the mechanism of servicification in GVCs. To fill this missing gap, this study aims at investigating the involvement of service sectors into GVCs in Asian economies in terms of the quantitative interactions between service inputs and manufacturing exports and inputs and between service inputs and service exports. For this purpose, a panel vector -autoregressive model and the Trade in Value Added (TiVA 2023) database of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) are used for the empirical analysis during 1995-2020. The estimation results find that, first, there exist reciprocal interactions between the business services and manufacturing sectors; foreign business service inputs are induced by manufacturing exports, whereas manufacturing inputs are induced by business service exports. Second, foreign manufacturing inputs facilitate foreign business service inputs. Third, business service inputs are promoted by business service exports. These trends in the involvement of business services’ involvement in GVCs have accelerated from the mid-2000s and are expected to expand toward the post-COVID-19 era. To enhance role of services in GVCs, Asian economies should facilitate the removal of explicit restrictions in service trade and address regulatory divergence across countries. |
| Keywords: | servicification; global value chains; emerging and developing Asian economies |
| JEL: | F14 O53 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121004&r= |
| By: | Haishi Li; Zhi Li; Ziho Park; Yulin Wang; Jing Wu |
| Abstract: | How do firms in neutral developing countries adjust their supply chains in response to geopolitical and economic fragmentation? Do they comply with or circumvent Western sanctions on Russia? Using comprehensive transaction-level bill of lading data from major developing countries, we study these questions in the context of the Russo-Ukrainian War. We find that firms in non-sanctioning countries significantly reduced exports of sanctioned products to Russia (and Belarus) if their headquarters are located in sanctioning countries (i.e., sanctioning MNEs), highlighting MNEs’ role in propagating sanctions globally. Domestic firms in developing countries observed a relative increase in such exports, weakening the effect of Western sanctions. Sanctioning MNEs expanded exports of sanctioned products to both sanctioning and Russia-friendly countries, indicating a blend of compliance and non-compliance. Sanctioning MNEs significantly reduced imports from Russia (and Belarus) in financially risky sectors, consistent with the effect of financial sanctions. To strengthen the effectiveness of sanctions, sanctioning countries should use their MNE networks, induce domestic firms in neutral countries to comply, and prevent sanction avoidance of MNEs through indirect exports. |
| Keywords: | global supply chains, geopolitical risk, international conflict |
| JEL: | F14 F63 O19 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11110&r= |
| By: | Amendolagine, Vito; Crescenzi, Riccardo; Rabellotti, Roberta |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how institutional conditions at national and regional levels shape the decisions of Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) to invest abroad by means of either acquisitions or greenfield investments. The empirical analysis covers all Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) projects in the European Union by the largest MNEs in the world to study alternative choices by the same firm and account for firm-level characteristics in investment decisions. The empirical results show that - other things being equal - regions with stronger investment eco-systems are more likely to attract acquisitions, while greenfield investments are more likely in regions with comparatively weaker systemic conditions. Howerver, the regional quality of institutions makes a fundamental difference to the nature of the investment projects attracted by regions: those with high quality of government can attract greenfield investments undertaken by the most productive MNEs. By improving their quality of government, local and regional policy makers can attract higher quality greenfield investment projects to their constituencies, potentially breaking the vicious circle between low productivity areas and low productivity FDI. |
| Keywords: | foreign direct investment; greenfield investment; cross-border acquisitions; multinational enterprises; firm heterogeneity; regions; European Union; institutions; European Union Horizon 2020 Programme H2020/2014-2020 (Grant Agreement n 639633-MASSIVE-ERC-2014-STG).; Wiley deal |
| JEL: | R12 R58 F23 |
| Date: | 2024–05–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122662&r= |
| By: | Kluge, Janis |
| Abstract: | Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally changed the terms of Russia-China economic relations. Economic cooperation with China has become vital for the Russian economy. Trade turnover between Russia and China has increased significantly since February 2022. However, Chinese companies remain hesitant about investing in Russia. Energy cooperation remains the backbone of Sino-Russian cooperation, but the expansion of Russian exports is hindered by infrastructure limitations. Russian arms exports have declined in recent years. Meanwhile, China exports large quantities of dual-use goods to Russia, which are urgently needed by the Russian military industry. Sino-Russian cooperation in the digital economy has been hit hard by Western sanctions. China's digital giants cancelled several projects in Russia due to fears of secondary U.S. sanctions. Russia's trade with China is mainly conducted in Chinese yuan. However, Russia continues to rely on the U.S. dollar for trade with the rest of the world. |
| Keywords: | Russia-China economic rlations, invasion of Ukraine, energy cooperation, arms exports, dual-use goods, Russian military industry, digital economy, yuan, U.S. dollar |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swprps:296472&r= |
| By: | James E. Anderson (Boston College) |
| Abstract: | Intense US-China commercial rivalry is quantified in this paper with novel non-parametric relative resistance sufficient statistics. The accounting method minimizes the demand specification error variance in revealed resistances. China’s manufacturing seller incidence falls (seller price rises) 7.6% yearly as China’s sales share quadruples over 2000-14. US seller incidence rises 4.1% yearly as US sales share halves. Domestic trade shares closely fit revealed relative resistances with trade elasticity equal to one. Industrial policy pays for itself in suggestive projections. A 10% rise in US 2014 sales share reduces seller incidence 6.0%, exports rise and net benefit is positive. |
| Keywords: | Non-parametric, seller incidence, terms of trade |
| JEL: | F10 F14 |
| Date: | 2024–05–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:1075&r= |
| By: | Robin Sogalla; Joschka Wanner; Yuta Watabe |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the elusive role of productivity heterogeneity in new trade models in the trade and environment nexus. We contrast the Eaton-Kortum and the Melitz models with firm heterogeneity to the Armington and Krugman models without heterogeneity. We show that if firms have a constant emission share in terms of sales — as they do in a wide range of trade and environment models — the three models’ emission predictions exactly coincide. Conversely, if firms have a constant emission intensity per quantity — a prominent alternative in the literature — the emission equivalence between the three models breaks. We provide a generalization that nests both constant emission shares in sales and constant quantity emission intensities as special cases. We calibrate the models to global production and trade data and use German firm-level data to estimate the key elasticity of how emission intensity changes with productivity. Our multi-industry quantification demonstrates that the role of firm heterogeneity depends both on the model and the estimated parameters. Moving from the Armington model to the EK model increases the emissions effect on trade, while moving from the Krugman model to the Melitz model decreases the emission effects on trade. |
| Keywords: | International trade; carbon emissions; firm heterogeneity |
| JEL: | F11 F12 F18 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2077&r= |
| By: | Yibo Qiao; Nicola Cortinovis; Andrea Morrison; |
| Abstract: | This article investigates how MNEs influence the export behavior of domestic firms in the context of China. We conceptually disentangle different MNE spillovers related to local export dynamics, linking in a unique framework specific spillover mechanisms, channels, activation conditions and type of knowledge conveyed. Empirically, our analysis relies on a panel dataset containing all Chinese manufacturing firms in the period 2000-2007. The results show that relatedness linkages matter in the context of export quantity, while forward-backward linkages matter for the sophistication of export. These findings suggest that relatedness linkages convey mainly marketing-related knowledge spillovers, while forward-backward linkages are diffusing mainly product-related knowledge spillovers. |
| Keywords: | Relatedness, forward-backward linkages, multinational enterprises, export, innovation, China |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2415&r= |
| By: | Philémon Votsoma (UGa - Université de Garoua); Votsoma Djekna (UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia); Itchoko Motande Mondjeli Mwa Ndjokou |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to assess the effect of trade openness on economic growth. Using a panel of five countries from the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CAEMC), we examine three trade openness measures over the period 1995 to 2017: the real ratio, the adjusted ratio, and the composite trade ratio. The results show a positive correlation between economic growth and the real trade ratio on the one hand, and between economic growth and the adjusted and composite ratios on the other. These countries therefore have an interest in further intensifying their trade and particularly trade flows related to export diversification. |
| Abstract: | L'objectif de cet article est d'évaluer l'effet de l'ouverture commerciale sur la croissance économique. À partir d'un panel de cinq pays de la Communauté économique et monétaire des États de l'Afrique centrale (CEMAC) sur la période allant de 1995 à 2017, nous spécifions le ratio d'ouverture commerciale réel, le ratio commercial ajusté et le ratio commercial composé. Les résultats montrent une corrélation positive entre la croissance économique et, d'une part, le ratio commercial réel, et, d'autre part, le ratio commercial ajusté et le ratio commercial composé. Ces pays ont donc intérêt à intensifier davantage leurs échanges commerciaux et particulièrement les flux commerciaux liés à la diversification des exportations. Classification JEL : F43, F40, C30 |
| Keywords: | Croissance économique, Ouverture commerciale, CEMAC |
| Date: | 2024–04–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04560475&r= |
| By: | Lionel Fontagné; Stephen Karingi; Simon Mevel; Cristina Mitaritonna; Yu Zheng |
| Abstract: | The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement aims to create a single market for goods and services, increase intra-Africa trade and promote sustainable socioeconomic development in Africa. African countries need to balance efforts to address these goals with the urgency of climate change. As of the 27th session of the Conference of Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2022, most African countries had submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to mitigate the impact of climate change. Establishing a carbon market is now on the policy agenda. This paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium model with different sources of energy (including renewable energy) and an in-depth presentation of greenhouse gas emissions to assess the economic and environmental impacts of implementing the AfCFTA Agreement and adopting various climate policies in Africa, including those NDCs and the International Monetary Fund’s proposal of carbon price floors. It shows that implementing the agreement and achieving Africa’s climate objectives are compatible. Continental coordination of emissions reduction among African countries proves most efficient for climate action. |
| Keywords: | International Trade;Climate Change;AfCFTA |
| JEL: | F13 F17 F18 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2024-04&r= |
| By: | Bò, Ernesto Dal; Hutková, Karolina; Leucht, Lukas; Yuchtman, Noam |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the role of taxes on overseas trade in the development of imperial Britain’s fiscal-military state. Influential work, e.g., Brewer’s Sinews of Power, attributed increased fiscal capacity to the taxation of domestic, rather than traded, goods: excise revenues, coarsely associated with domestic goods, grew faster than customs revenues. We construct new historical revenue series disaggregating excise revenues from traded and domestic goods. We find substantial growth in revenue from traded goods, accounting for over half of indirect taxation around 1800. This challenges the conventional wisdom attributing the development of the British state to domestic factors: international factors mattered, too. |
| Keywords: | fiscal capacity; international trade; British empire; taxation |
| JEL: | N43 N73 H20 P16 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:123526&r= |
| By: | Carmen Díaz-Mora (University of Castilla-La Mancha.); Silviano Esteve-Pérez (University of Valencia and INTECO Joint Research Unit UJI-UV); Salvador Gil-Pareja (Salvador Gil-Pareja, Facultad de Economía, Departamento de Estructura Económica, Av. de los Naranjos s/n, C.P. 46022, Valencia, Spain.); Fernando Ríos-Avila (Levy Economics Institute of Bard College.) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the EMU effect on trade accounting for heterogeneous effects across space and time. To that end, we use an extended two-way fixed effect estimator for staggered difference-in-differences within the structural gravity model. The average EMU impact on trade between members taking into account the heterogeneity of the treatment effect at the cohort-year level is positive (close to 20%) but very similar to that found using the standard two-way fixed effects estimator. However, the new approach allows us to analyze the EMU impact by cohorts and by periods from treatment, which reveals heterogeneity in the results and provides new insights into the study of the impact of EMU. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: EMU, gravity equation, staggered difference-in-differences, heterogeneity |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eec:wpaper:2407&r= |
| By: | Subhayu Bandyopadhyay; Hoang Le |
| Abstract: | Geography, historical linkages and economic partnerships have shaped variations in immigration flows across the U.S. and other developed nations. |
| Keywords: | immigration; Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) |
| Date: | 2024–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:98282&r= |
| By: | Justin R. Pierce; Peter K. Schott; Cristina Tello-Trillo |
| Abstract: | We examine US workers' employment and earnings before and after trade liberalization with China. Among workers initially employed in manufacturing, we find substantial and persistent declines in both outcomes, with indirect exposure via input-output linkages exacerbating the negative effects of direct exposure. For workers initially employed outside manufacturing, however, we find that the positive impact of greater upstream exposure via inputs more than offsets the adverse impacts of own- and downstream exposure, inducing relative earnings gains. We also find that spatial exposure is more influential than industry exposure. |
| JEL: | F0 F13 J30 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32438&r= |
| By: | Kim, Kye Hwan (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Yang, Jooyoung (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Cho, Eun Kyo (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | China and the United States are both pursuing strategic de-risking to navigate the murky waters of their relationship, fraught with conflict but bound by trade. De-risking is essentially a kind of industrial policy that focuses on dominating advanced technologies and industries, protecting technologies and markets, and courting the support of like-minded nations. Washington’s de-risking strategy for the semiconductor and battery sectors focuses on bolstering the competitiveness of American industries via internalization, supply chain diversification, and deeper partnerships with allies and friendly nations. China meanwhile is working to navigate the US sanctions regime on technologies and supply chains by establishing China-centered industrial ecosystems and weaponizing key battery inputs, such as rare earths and other important minerals. In the chip sector, the reconfiguration of supply chains would simultaneously feature an accelerated decoupling in cutting-edge nodes and the creation of alternative supply chains in Southeast Asia and India that support mature nodes. Battery supply chains are likely to be reshaped by the rise of major regional blocs or markets (encompassing China, South Korea, and Japan) and concentration of technologies and manufacturing capacity in a few multinational corporations. Korea should pursue a five-pronged industrial policy to respond to these developments. First, it needs to invest in the establishment of vertically integrated industrial clusters. Doing so could transform the country into a trusted hub and middleman. Second, the Korean government should adopt an industrial policy that fosters these clusters. Third, Korea should strive to become a major production hub capable of meeting the high standards necessitated by new protectionist policies. Fourth, Korean firms should establish overseas bases of these integrated clusters as well. Finally, Korea should work to promote green technology partnerships as a viable alternative to the current international trade order. Only with a multifaceted and systematic de-risking policy can Korea hope to overcome the challenges posed by the fragmentation wreaking havoc in contemporary supply chains. |
| Keywords: | semiconductors; chips; batteries; EVs; China; US; Korea; US-China conflict; de-risking; supply chains; supply chain risk; supply chain diversification; industrial policy; supply chain weaponization; Korea; KIET |
| JEL: | F51 F52 L52 L62 L63 L65 L72 |
| Date: | 2024–02–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:2024_002&r= |
| By: | Stéphane Auray; Michael B. Devereux; Aurélien Eyquem |
| Abstract: | Monetary rules may have a large effect on the outcome of trade wars if central banks target the CPI inflation rate or more generally changes in the relative price of traded goods. We lay out a two-country open-economy model with sticky prices where countries engage in trade wars. In the presence of monopoly pricing markups, we show that the final level of tariffs and welfare losses from trade wars critically depend on the design of monetary policy. If central banks adopt a fixed nominal exchange rate or even better target the CPI inflation rate, trade wars are much less intense than those under PPI inflation targeting. We further show that an optimally delegated monetary rule that internalizes the formation of non-cooperative trade policy can actually completely eliminate a trade war, and even act to partly offset the welfare cost of monopoly markups. |
| JEL: | F30 F40 F41 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32451&r= |
| By: | Giulia Brancaccio (New York University); Myrto Kalouptsidi (Harvard University); Theodore Papageorgiou (Boston College) |
| Abstract: | Transportation infrastructure is vital for the smooth functioning of international trade. Ports are a crucial gateway to this system: with more than 80% of trade carried by ships, they shape trade costs, and it is critical that they operate efficiently. Yet ports are susceptible to disruptions, causing costly delays. With enormous budgets spent on infrastructure to alleviate these costs, a key policy question emerges: in a world with high volatility, what are the returns to investing in infrastructure? To address this question, we introduce an empirical framework that combines insights from queueing theory to capture port technology, with tools from demand estimation. We use our framework, together with a collection of novel datasets, to quantify the costs of disruptions and evaluate transportation infrastructure investment. Our analysis unveils three policy-relevant messages: (i) investing in port infrastructure can lead to substantial trade and welfare gains, but only if targeted properly– in fact, net of costs, investment has positive returns at a minority of US ports; (ii) there are sizable spillovers across ports, as investing in one port can decongest a wider set of ports, suggesting that decision-making should not be decentralized to local authorities; (iii) macroeconomic volatility can drastically change returns to investment and their geography. |
| Keywords: | transportation, infrastructure, ports, congestion, macroeconomic volatility, disruptions, spillovers, welfare |
| JEL: | E39 F1 F14 L0 L90 L91 R4 R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2024–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:1072&r= |
| By: | Beber, Bernd; Ebert, Cara; Sievert, Maximiliane |
| Abstract: | We investigate the extent to which asylum policies that aim to deter individuals from migrating irregularly in fact do so. We specifically consider effects of Germany's recent and high-profile asylum policy adjustments, which include accelerated asylum decision processes, the prospect of asylum processing outside of Europe, the introduction of a payment card to replace cash benefits, and an extended waiting period for native-level benefits. In order to estimate effects of these policy measures on irregular migration intent, we implement a conjoint experiment with 989 men aged 18-40 in four cities in Senegal, a population of most-likely migrants in a country where irregular migration to Europe is highly salient. We find that offshoring the asylum process significantly and substantially lowers irregular migration intentions across nearly all types of subjects. Extending the waiting time for native-level benefits only has a small, marginally significant effect on intent, and no effect among the poorest subjects and those that are most motivated to migrate internationally. Neither reducing asylum processing times nor replacing cash benefits with a payment card significantly alters intentions. We note that the presence or absence of an effect does not resolve political and normative questions concerning these policies, which are beyond the scope of this particular study. |
| Abstract: | Wir untersuchen, inwieweit asylpolitische Maßnahmen, die darauf abzielen, Menschen von irregulärer Migration abzuhalten, dies auch tatsächlich tun. Wir untersuchen insbesondere die Auswirkungen der jüngsten und öffentlichkeitswirksamen Anpassungen der deutschen Asylpolitik, zu denen beschleunigte Asylentscheidungsverfahren, die Aussicht auf Asylverfahren außerhalb Europas, die Einführung einer Bezahlkarte als Ersatz für Barleistungen und eine verlängerte Wartezeit für Analogleistungen gehören. Um die Auswirkungen dieser politischen Maßnahmen auf die Absicht der irregulären Migration zu schätzen, führen wir ein Conjoint-Experiment mit 989 Männern im Alter von 18 bis 40 Jahren in vier senegalesischen Städten durch, also mit einer Bevölkerungsgruppe, in der irreguläre Migration nach Europa präsent ist. Wir stellen fest, dass die Verlagerung des Asylverfahrens die Absicht zur irregulären Migration bei fast allen Subjekttypen signifikant und erheblich senkt. Die Verlängerung der Wartezeit für Analogleistungen hat nur einen kleinen, marginal signifikanten Effekt auf Migrationsabsichten, und keinen Effekt bei den ärmsten Personen und denjenigen, die am meisten motiviert sind, international zu migrieren. Weder die Verkürzung der Bearbeitungszeiten für Asylanträge noch die Ersetzung von Geldleistungen durch eine Bezahlkarte haben einen signifikanten Einfluss auf die relevante Migrationsabsicht. Wir weisen darauf hin, dass das Vorhandensein oder Nichtvorhandensein eines Effekts politische und normative Fragen in Bezug auf diese Maßnahmen nicht löst. |
| Keywords: | Asylum policy, irregular migration, conjoint experiment |
| JEL: | F22 J61 K37 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:295228&r= |
| By: | Jimena Villanueva Kiser; Riley Wilson |
| Abstract: | Exploiting variation created by Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), we document the effects of immigrant legalization on mobility investments and economic outcomes. DACA increased both geographic and job mobility of young immigrants, leading them to high paying labor markets and licensed occupations. Employing these shifts, we examine whether these gains to immigrants are offset by losses among U.S.-born workers. Employment of U.S.-born workers grows in the occupations that DACA recipients shifted into after DACA is implemented, even when controlling for local demand. Spillover estimates are consistent with worker complementarities and suggest that immigrant legalization generates broader economic benefits. |
| Keywords: | legal status, DACA, immigration, geographic mobility, job mobility, occupational licensing, local labor markets |
| JEL: | J15 K37 R23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11106&r= |
| By: | Joseph P. Kaboski; Jianyu Lu; Wei Qian; Lixia Ren |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of roads on structural transformation and business composition theoretically and empirically. We develop a two-sector model of regional trade with endogenous firm entry that highlights two opposing forces. \textit{Ceteris paribus} lower trade costs in non-agriculture lead to fewer firms, but cheaper agricultural imports releases labor from local agricultural production leading to more firms. Using major highway programs in India and China, we find results broadly consistent with the theory, with declines in the number of businesses where structural transformation is weak, and increases where it is strong. |
| JEL: | F15 O13 O18 O41 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32448&r= |
| By: | Shumin Qiu; Claudia Steinwender; Pierre Azoulay |
| Abstract: | We investigate the phenomenon of home bias in scientific citations, where researchers disproportionately cite work from their own country. We develop a benchmark for expected citations based on the relative size of countries, defining home bias as deviations from this norm. Our findings reveal that China exhibits the largest home bias across all major countries and in nearly all scientific fields studied. This stands in contrast to the pattern of home bias for China’s trade in goods and services, where China does not stand out from most industrialized countries. After adjusting citation counts for home bias, we demonstrate that China’s apparent rise in citation rankings is overstated. Our adjusted ranking places China fourth globally, behind the US, the UK, and Germany, tempering the perception of China’s scientific dominance. |
| JEL: | F14 I23 O32 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32468&r= |
| By: | Andersson, Malin; Byrne, Stephen; Emter, Lorenz; Pardo, Belén González; Jarvis, Valerie; Schmitz, Martin; Zorell, Nico; Blatnik, Nina; Zwick, Christoph |
| Abstract: | The activities of multinational enterprises (MNEs) have become an increasingly important feature of the euro area economy, affecting output, trade and financial linkages. MNEs contribute to domestic output by maintaining large production facilities, offering high-paid jobs, bringing in new technologies and generating tax revenues. Following statistical changes implemented in 2015 to better capture the increasing importance of intangible investment, the economic impact of MNE activities has become much more evident in measures of intellectual property product (IPP) investment and external IPP trade flows. MNE activities, which often entail large and instantaneous transfers of IPP, are frequently highly volatile and can blur real-time assessment – and forecasting – of the business cycle, the current account and the capital stock in the euro area. Focusing on Ireland, given the strong prevalence of MNE activities in that economy and their importance for the euro area aggregate, this paper assesses the usefulness of the “modified” series for Irish non-construction investment and services imports. Using the modified series would provide a more accurate picture of the domestic dynamics of the Irish economy and enhance real-time assessment of the euro area business cycle, current account and capital stock. This paper brings insights into the unwinding of IPP shocks, which is a more straightforward exercise than seeking to anticipate the shocks themselves. The conclusions of this work underline the urgent need for more granular and internationally harmonised data on MNE activities to gain a clearer understanding of the dynamics of IPP operations and the implications for both short and long-term macroeconomic developments. JEL Classification: E22, F23, F62 |
| Keywords: | intangible capital, macroeconomic impact of globalisation, multinational firms |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2024350&r= |
| By: | Kim, Dongsoo (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | China boasts an indomitable presence in the global market of critical mineral resources (CMRs). Not only is China a major producer of many of these rare minerals, but the country is also the largest importer and exporter of the minerals used in the manufacture of secondary battery materials. It is unlikely that any other country will topple China’s position in the global mineral market for some time. The United States, Europe, and Japan have been reconfiguring their CMR supply chains over the last several years with the aim of reducing their dependency on China. Korean EV battery makers import 80 to 90 percent of the CMRs they need from China. Washington has sought to restructure its CMR supply chains since it first openly declared its intent to contain China in 2017. Beijing has responded by restricting exports of key minerals and increasing investment in joint ventures with businesses overseas. The Korean government has sought to respond to the growing uncertainty cast by the US-China rivalry over CMR supply chains by designing its own strategy for securing access to CMRs. It has since made law the Special Act on the Security of National Resources, which lays the legislative foundation for an early warning system, stockpiling, import diversification, and infrastructure expansion. At the more fundamental level, however, Korea needs to increase its cooperation with resource-rich countries with a view to establishing an integrated CMR ecosystem. In the short term, however the Korean government needs to grow public stockpiles of key minerals and quickly nurture companies capable of refining and processing raw minerals. Policy support and incentives are also needed to encourage the private sector to grow its own stockpiles. In the long term, Korea needs to build and maintain trust with China and redesign policies to minimize the risks of supply crises. |
| Keywords: | critical mineral resources; CMR; US-China conflict; Korea; rare earths; battery materials; battery precursors; supply chains; international cooperation; Indonesia; Vietnam; India; stockpiling; mineral processing |
| JEL: | F51 F52 L65 L72 L78 Q34 Q37 Q38 |
| Date: | 2024–02–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:2024_001&r= |
| By: | Hany Abdel-Latif; Mr. Antonio David; Rasmané Ouedraogo; Markus Specht |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the macroeconomic spillover effects of conflict within sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using a new Conflict Spillover Index (CSI), which accounts for conflict intensity and distance from conflict-affected countries. Our findings reveal an escalation in conflict spillovers across SSA since 2011, marked by considerable cross-country heterogeneity. Impulse responses show that conflict spillovers shocks significantly and persistently hinder economic growth, while concurrently elevating inflation in the “home” country. Conflict spillover shocks are also associated with increases in (current) government spending and government debt. Furthermore, the international trade transmission channel of spillovers operates mostly through increased imports, while negative effects on FDI winddown over time. Moreover, state-dependent impulse responses underscore the importance of good governance, fiscal space, and foreign aid in attenuating the adverse macroeconomic spillover effects of conflict. The detrimental impact of conflict on output is more severe in environments with weaker governance and limited fiscal space. Government expenditures tend to rise following a spillover shock in contexts of high governmental effectiveness, possibly reflecting the use of policy buffers to respond to shocks. In that context, the papers shed light on important factors to promote resilience in SSA economies. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomic Spillovers; Conflict; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024–05–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/100&r= |
| By: | Vianney Dequiedt (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International, CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Audrey-Anne De Ubeda (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International); Édouard Mien (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International) |
| Abstract: | Regularly the subject of international discussions over the last two decades without reaching a consensus, taxation on maritime transport has been on the agenda of international negotiations since the Summit for a New Global Financing Pact held in Paris in June 2023 and the Paris Pact for People and the Planet (4P). The past year has been marked by strong political declarations and signals, including the launch of a taskforce on international taxation1 to tackle the joint development, climate and nature agenda. It has further affirmed the opening of an unprecedented window of opportunity, which many countries in the South and North are eager to seize. |
| Keywords: | Tax, Taxation, Tax coordination |
| Date: | 2024–05–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04573848&r= |
| By: | Chiara Maria Zisler; Eric Bettinger; Uschi Backes-Gellner |
| Abstract: | Given the increase in global refugee and migration flows and the severe labor shortages in host countries, actively helping refugees enter the labor market constitutes a critical solution for both challenges. This paper analyzes the effect of targeted training programs for refugees on their labor market and social integration. Using a quasi-experimental approach, we investigate a Swiss IT and coding bootcamp that combines occupational skills training with workplace-based cultural skills training (i.e., implicit skills that can be learned only through work experience). By matching individual survey data with detailed records from the program application process, we compare the labor market and social integration outcomes of program applicants around the admission threshold. Results for this quasi-random sample of applicants show that program participation significantly increases labor market outcomes compared to non-participation within the first three years after program graduation. |
| Keywords: | Refugees, Labor market integration, Skills training, Natural experiment |
| JEL: | J61 M53 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iso:educat:0218&r= |
| By: | Vuving, Alexander |
| Abstract: | This article examines how Vietnam has responded to the Russia-Ukraine war, how the war has impacted Vietnam’s foreign policy, and why Hanoi has behaved the way it has. It is organized into three major sections. The first discusses the impact of the Ukraine war on Vietnam’s strategic environment and grand strategy. It also outlines the broad contour of Vietnam’s grand strategy and identifies major possible directions along which Hanoi may steer its course in the future. The second section examines Russia’s unique role in Vietnam’s strategic calculus and Russian soft power in Vietnam. It also discusses the pre-war developments that strengthened Russia’s role and soft power, thus providing a larger context without which Vietnam’s responses to the war cannot be fully understood. The third section documents Vietnam’s domestic and foreign policy responses to the war. The article argues that although the Russia-Ukraine war has triggered diverse, even opposing, responses from Vietnam’s ruling elite, it has not changed the general direction of Vietnam’s foreign policy because it has not directly and fundamentally affected Vietnam’s quest for security, resources, and identity. However, the war posed moral and strategic dilemmas for Hanoi, tore the web of geopolitical partnerships upon which Vietnam relied to secure its place in the world, and threatened to shake Russia’s unique and critical role in Vietnam’s foreign relations. Hanoi responded by reinforcing the current paradigm of its foreign policy, performing a delicate balancing act between the great powers, and deepening ties with the major powerhouses in its surrounding region. In the long term, however, the costs of this “bamboo diplomacy” may outweigh its benefits. |
| Date: | 2024–05–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:e3rf4&r= |
| By: | Rudloff, Bettina; Mensah, Kristina; Wieck, Christine; Kareem, Olayinka; Montesclaros, Jose Ma Luis; Orden, David; Sonddergaard, Neils; Yu, Wusheng |
| Abstract: | This study contributes to the recent literature on geostrategic aspects of economic policy and the objective of economic security by addressing food security as a subcategory within economic security. Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 crisis and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, this study analyses whether and how the relevance of food security as a national policy goal has changed. It focuses on the questions of whether countries’ policy choices towards this objective have initiated longer-term strategic shifts, rather than just acute reactions, and analyses the extent to which these adjustments are influenced by underlying geopolitical considerations. To answer these questions, developments in food security policies are identified, focusing primarily on the perspective of security of supply. This perspective fits with the recent political focus and current initiatives by many countries aiming at national economic and supply security in general. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2024–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatrcp:343001&r= |
| By: | Kutam, Matthew; Roth, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | We replicate the primary results from Ahlquist and Downey (2023, AD), who examine the effects of Chinese import competition on both industryand state-level unionization in the US. We are able to directly replicate the main results in AD Tables 1 and 2. We consider two main extensions. First, we consider a version of the industry-level analysis that uses log union share instead of the level. We again find a significant negative effect on union share, although the effect on log union share explains a larger fraction of the total drop between 1990 and 2014. Second, for the state-level results, we segment the manufacturing employment share into unionized and nonunionized manufacturing. We find that at the state level, the impacts of import exposure are concentrated entirely in non-union manufacturing. The estimated impact on union manufacturing employment is actually positive, but small and statistically insignificant. This is contrast with the results at the industry level where the effects are negative for both union and non-union manufacturing and larger in magnitude for union manufacturing. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:120&r= |
| By: | Kunimoto, Takashi (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Zhang, Cuiling (School of Economics, Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | Crémer and McLean (1988) show that the seller can extract full surplus almost always by an incentive compatible, individually rational mechanism in a single-unit auction model with a finite type space in which agents' beliefs are correlated and their valuations can be interdependent. We first show that this paradoxically positive result can be extended to a model of bilateral trades. To make it more realistic, we investigate when ex-post efficiency and ex-post budget balance in bilateral trades can also be achieved by an incentive compatible, individually rational mechanism. We identify a necessary condition for the existence of such mechanisms and show that it is also sufficient for a two-type model. We next show that the identified condition is not sufficient in general. Through a series of examples, we show that the imposition of ex post budget balance in a bilateral trade model induces a delicate interaction between interdependent values and correlated beliefs, so that the existence of incentive compatible, individually rational mechanisms becomes a very subtle problem. Finally, focusing on a model with linear valuations, we give the precise sense in which a possibility result under interdependent values is more fragile than that under private values. |
| Keywords: | bilateral trade; interdependence; correlation |
| JEL: | C72 D78 D82 |
| Date: | 2024–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:0000_000&r= |
| By: | Leila Ben Salem; Ridha Nouira; Sami Saafi; Christophe Rault |
| Abstract: | Revealing the precise thresholds at which fluctuations in oil prices start to affect gross domestic product and its various components (consumption, investment, expenditure and exports) holds significant implications for policymakers in both oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. Existing studies assessing the effects of oil prices on economic activity typically assume constant or stable threshold values. However, recent evidence suggests that this restrictive assumption may not accurately capture the dynamic nature of these relationships. We address this issue by adopting a more realistic framework that allows for the possibility that oil prices will have a time-varying effect on economic activity. We also employ the innovative time-varying threshold regression kink model of Yang and Su (2018). Our analysis focuses on a sample of 20 top oil-importing and oil-exporting countries during the period 1995Q1 to 2023Q2. The findings of our investigation provide compelling evidence to support the existence of time-varying threshold levels in the relationship between oil prices and macroeconomic activity for most countries in our sample. Notably, our research unveils a substantial heterogeneity in the oil price thresholds across the investigated countries, thereby challenging the notion of a universal threshold applicable to all. |
| Keywords: | oil price, GDP and its components, time-varying threshold, oil-importing countries, oil-exporting countries |
| JEL: | C50 Q40 Q43 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11107&r= |
| By: | Salem, Leila Ben (University of Sousse); Nouira, Ridha (University of Sousse); Saafi, Sami (University of Sousse); Rault, Christophe (University of Orléans) |
| Abstract: | Revealing the precise thresholds at which fluctuations in oil prices start to affect gross domestic product and its various components (consumption, investment, expenditure and exports) holds significant implications for policymakers in both oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. Existing studies assessing the effects of oil prices on economic activity typically assume constant or stable threshold values. However, recent evidence suggests that this restrictive assumption may not accurately capture the dynamic nature of these relationships. We address this issue by adopting a more realistic framework that allows for the possibility that oil prices will have a time-varying effect on economic activity. We also employ the innovative time-varying threshold regression kink model of Yang and Su (2018). Our analysis focuses on a sample of 20 top oil-importing and oil-exporting countries during the period 1995Q1 to 2023Q2. The findings of our investigation provide compelling evidence to support the existence of time-varying threshold levels in the relationship between oil prices and macroeconomic activity for most countries in our sample. Notably, our research unveils a substantial heterogeneity in the oil price thresholds across the investigated countries, thereby challenging the notion of a universal threshold applicable to all. |
| Keywords: | oil price, GDP and its components, time-varying threshold, oil-importing countries, oil-exporting countries |
| JEL: | C5 Q4 Q43 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16970&r= |
| By: | Roskruge, Matthew (Massey University); Poot, Jacques (University of Waikato) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we present evidence from quantitative research over the last decade on how the social capital of individuals in Aotearoa New Zealand is associated with birthplace and, for migrants, years since migration. We also consider the effects of spatial sorting and ethnic diversity on social capital formation. Aotearoa New Zealand has one of the highest rates of immigration in the OECD and, consequently, one of the highest shares of foreign-born individuals in the population. Additionally, the population is characterized by high ethnic diversity and a large indigenous population, with Māori representing 17 percent of the population. Using several data sources, we measure social capital by focusing on participation and volunteering in a range of community activities, perceptions of safety and inclusion, and voting in elections. Regression modelling shows that, as expected, migrants have little local social capital upon arrival. However, differences between their social capital and that of native-born individuals reduce considerably as the duration of residence in Aotearoa New Zealand increases. When the migrant share in a region is larger than the national average, migrants invest less in bridging social capital. Migrant clustering within a region increases their investment in bonding social capital. Bridging activities are associated with better employment outcomes. Less than one in five respondents in the utilized survey data report discrimination, and for migrants, discrimination declines with years of residence. However, the trend in discrimination has been upward over time and particularly affects non-European migrants and persons identifying with Māori and Pacific Peoples ethnicities. Residential location matters. Greater ethnic diversity is associated with the perception of a less safe neighbourhood, but individuals in ethnically diverse regions experience relatively less discrimination. Additionally, there is more involvement in elections in such regions. In contrast, greater ethnic polarisation in regions is associated with less civic engagement and more discrimination. |
| Keywords: | social capital, ethnic diversity, bonding, bridging, linking, immigrant integration, spatial sorting |
| JEL: | F22 R11 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17012&r= |
| By: | Pablo, Elverdin; Said, Andrés D. |
| Abstract: | Since the Industrial Revolution, the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) has consistently risen, leading to a 1.15°C increase in global mean temperatures by 2022. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirms human activities as the primary cause of global warming, with emissions continuing to rise. Climate change has resulted in adverse impacts on various fronts, disproportionately affecting vulnerable communities. International efforts, including the United Nations Frame-work Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol, aimed at stabilizing green-house gas concentrations. These efforts were followed by the Paris Agreement in 2015, focusing on limiting global temperature increases and relying on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) from countries. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change mandates Countries to develop and regularly update national inventories of greenhouse gas emissions and removals. These inventories, aligned with IPCC methodologies, serve as crucial tools for transparent reporting, building mutual trust among countries for effective climate change agreements. National GHG inventories play a vital role in policy development, monitoring impact, and tracking progress toward achieving NDCs outlined in inter-national agreements, such as the Paris Agreement. Varying capacities for GHG inventory development among developing and developed countries, coupled with diverse reporting requirements, create challenges in data comparability. Developed countries face rigorous annual submission requirements, producing comprehensive National Inventory Reports and Common Reporting Format tables. In contrast, developing countries submit their national GHG inventories through Biennial Update Reports (BURs), and flexibility is granted to Least Developed Country Parties (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) regarding submission timelines. The re-porting landscape is progressing, with the introduction of the biennial transparency report (BTR) for Paris Agreement Parties. The BTR, due by December 31, 2024, will convergence in methodologies be-tween countries. |
| Keywords: | climate change; emissions from agriculture; global warming; greenhouse gases |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:lacwps:33&r= |