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on International Trade |
| By: | Farris, Jarrad; Morgan, Stephen; Beckman, Jayson |
| Abstract: | Poultry is the second most consumed meat in the world and the most traded livestock commodity by volume. Much of this trade is driven by rising demand in developing country markets; as such, poultry trade is expected to continue to grow over the next decade as incomes increase in these countries. However, poultry trade is among the most heavily protected agricultural sectors in terms of tariffs and tariff rate quotas (TRQs). In addition, many nontariff measures (NTMs) limit or even prohibit poultry trade. This report combines data on World Trade Organization (WTO) poultry NTM notifications with domestic and international poultry trade flows to estimate whether and to what extent different types of NTMs affect the value of poultry trade. The results suggest that, on average, nondiscriminatory poultry NTM initiations notified to the WTO have a small positive effect on the value of international poultry trade compared to domestic poultry trade. In aggregate, this finding suggests that the trade facilitation effect dominates, but this may not be the case for any individual NTM or country pair. This study also finds that the effects of WTO notifications appear to vary by importer region. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersrr:342470&r= |
| By: | Hanwei Huang; Jiandong Ju; Vivian Yue |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the evolution of China's production and trade patterns during its integration into the global economy. We document and explain new facts concerning changes in production and exports at the industry and firm levels using microdata and a quantitative Ricardian and Heckscher–Ohlin model with heterogeneous firms. Counterfactual simulations reveal that capital deepening made China's production and exports more capital-intensive, although labor-biased productivity growth acted as a counterforce. Consistent with the data, our model demonstrates that China's trade openness peaked around the mid-2000s and fell until the 2020s, while the world's exposure to Chinese exports rose continuously. |
| JEL: | D24 E23 E25 F12 F14 F16 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32415&r= |
| By: | S M Toufiqul Huq Sowrov |
| Abstract: | International trade has been in the forefront of economic development and growth debates. Trade openness, its definition, scope, and impacts have also been studied numerously. Tariff has been dubbed as negative influencer of economic growth as per conventional wisdom and most empirical studies. This paper empirically examines relationships among trade openness as trade share to GDP, import tariff rate and economic growth. Panel dataset of 11 G-20 member countries were selected for the study. Results found a positively significant correlation between trade openness and economic growth. Tariff has negatively significant correlation with economic growth in lagged model. OLS and panel data fixed-effects regression were employed to carry out the regression analysis. To deal with endogeneity in trade openness variable, a 1-year lag regression technique was conducted. Results are robust and significant. Policy recommendation suggests country specific trade opening and tariff relaxation. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2405.08052&r= |
| By: | Chad P. Bown (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | Out of fear about its economic security, the European Union is transitioning to a new form of international economic and policy engagement. This paper explores some of the major trade issues surrounding the bloc's economic security, the role of trade and industrial policies in achieving its objectives, and some of the economic costs of doing so. It begins by explaining why economic security is suddenly playing such a prominent role and providing early evidence to motivate these government interventions. It then turns to a case study--new policies associated with China's exports of electric vehicles and graphite--that highlights the difficult choices and practical challenges the European Union faces in tailoring policy to address concerns over economic security. The paper then introduces the domestic policy instruments that the European Union, its member states, and other governments are pursuing to address economic security, including stockpiling and inventory management, investment or production subsidies, tariffs, export controls, and regulations on foreign investment, as well as the scope for selective international cooperation over such policy instruments. The paper concludes with some caveats about abandoning interdependence and lessons from history. |
| Keywords: | Economic security, supply chains, industrial policy, trade policy, tariffs, subsidies, export controls |
| JEL: | F13 L52 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp24-2&r= |
| By: | FERRARI Emanuele (European Commission - JRC); CHRISTIDIS Panayotis (European Commission - JRC); BOLSI Paolo |
| Abstract: | The surge in maritime transport costs has considerable implications for global economic activity and international trade patterns. Monitoring market dynamics is crucial to anticipate challenges and implement timely policies that support vulnerable economies and maintain stable trade flows. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc136906&r= |
| By: | Lorenzo Caliendo; Marcelo Dolabella; Mauricio Moreira; Matthew Murillo; Fernando Parro |
| Abstract: | We study the role of trade policy in one of the most pressing climate policy challenges that developing countries face: meeting voluntary emission restraints (VERs). To do so, we develop a general equilibrium trade model that extends Caliendo and Parro (2015) in three dimensions. First, we model extractive sectors that feature a continuum of producers with heterogeneous productivity, demanding labor, dirty natural resources, and intermediate goods from all industries. Second, we consider that production generates different amounts of emissions across sectors and countries, and households experience disutility from carbon emissions, modeled as a pure externality as in Shapiro (2021). Third, we model a general set of taxes along the value chain—on production, intermediate and final consumption, and on labor—which allows for different options of carbon taxes and tariffs that impact emissions and other outcomes in general equilibrium. In our quantitative analysis, we focus on two groups of policies: those that are in the traditional realm of trade policy, related to tariff reform and potential emission biases; and those that combine a Pigouvian carbon tax with border adjustments. Our main findings point to a nuanced role of trade policy as a climate policy in developing economies. Although it is effective in mitigating emission leakages, such leakages are small in magnitude, and border adjustment tariffs have collateral effects in terms of trade declines, and in many countries, welfare losses. These findings contrast with the implications of climate policy in large economies, where emission leakages are much more significant and the impact on trade less costly. Our main results also indicate that carbon taxes and tariffs will not be enough for most developing countries to meet their net-zero emission targets dictated by the VERs. |
| JEL: | A10 F13 F18 F6 H23 Q5 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32459&r= |
| By: | Bård Harstad |
| Abstract: | There are often conflicts between proponents of trade and environmental activists. This paper shows, however, how trade agreements can be designed so as to motivate environmental conservation. I first analyze a standard trade model, where resource exploitation (e.g., deforestation) is a trade-specific investment that causes environmental damage. In this model, traditional trade agreements will cause more exploitation. Next, I investigate the extent to which conservation can be motivated by a contingent trade agreement (CTA), where default tariffs can vary with changes in the resource stock (e.g., the forest cover). The model permits many products, countries, and collaborators. A numerical example suggests that growth and liberalization can cause Brazil's agricultural area to expand by 27%, but this expansion can be avoided if the EU and the US offer a CTA. |
| JEL: | F13 F18 F55 Q37 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32392&r= |
| By: | Dora Haydee Valenzuela Miranda (Universidad de Sonora); Arturo Robles Valencia (Universidad de Sonora) |
| Abstract: | The commercial relationship between Mexico and the United States of America is of great importance at the international level; it has been formalized since 1994 by the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), now replaced by the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA). When the USMCA entered into force, the volume of trade has grown considerably between the North American partners because it ought to strengthen the economic relationship of these nations. However, some countries present a high commercial concentration due to the exports and imports carried out between countries to satisfy the demands of the commercial partners. By using Stata, the Herfindahl–Hirschmann index (HHI) is computed (Ansari 2012) with the command version hhi5 by Yujun and Lian (2016) and concentration indexes of exports from Mexico and the United States of America to perform an analysis of exports in the states of the mentioned countries, to identify the position of the key states for cross-border trade through commercial corridors established by the USMCA, where 70% of North American trade moves. The most important corridors are the West Coast Corridor, the Canamex Corridor, and the North American Superhighway Corridor. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:mexi23:03&r= |
| By: | Emanuele Ferrari (European Commission – JRC); Christian Elleby (European Commission – JRC); Beyhan DE JONG (European Commission – JRC); Robert M'barek (European Commission – JRC); Ignacio PEREZ DOMINGUEZ (European Commission – JRC) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the potential effects of 10 upcoming free trade agreements (FTAs) under the current EU trade agenda. It quantifies the cumulative sectoral impacts in terms of bilateral trade, production, demand and price developments. Moreover, it provides insights into the evolution of supply, demand and farm-gate prices for the most relevant EU agricultural commodity markets. In contrast to a forecast exercise, this analysis compares two variants of a trade liberalisation scenario (conservative and ambitious) with a business-as-usual (baseline) situation in 2032, including an analysis of the effects of the UK trade agenda on EU agri-food trade. The study confirms that the analysed FTAs have the potential to benefit the EU agri-food sector, especially the dairy, pigmeat, processed food and beverages sectors. It also highlights the vulnerability of the beef, sheep meat, poultry meat, sugar and rice sectors. |
| Keywords: | Trade, EU, general equilibrium model, partial equilibrium model |
| JEL: | C68 F11 Q17 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc135540&r= |
| By: | Schrader, Klaus |
| Abstract: | The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, prompted the German government to fundamentally rethink Germany's political and economic relations with Russia. A “change of times” was proclaimed which meant a caesura in foreign and security policy as well as the overcoming of economic dependencies on Russia. This article analyzes whether Germany has substantially reduced its foreign trade relations with Russia more than a year after this proclamation. It is shown that on the German export side, there was no substantial dependence on exports to Russia in any significant sector in the year of war 2022. The loss of importance of trade with Russia had no negative impact on the overall development of German exports. However, the momentum of Russian exports was already broken after the occupation of Crimea in 2014. On the import side, in contrast, a substantial reduction in trade relations did not take place before. Until 2022, dependencies on Russia as a supplier of raw materials remained high, especially in the case of pipeline-bound natural gas with a Russian import share of 55 percent. Germany corrected this political error at high cost and made itself independent of Russian natural gas imports by the end of 2022. |
| Abstract: | Der russische Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine am 24. Februar 2022 veranlasste die Bundesregierung, die politischen und wirtschaftlichen Beziehungen Deutschlands zu Russland grundlegend zu überdenken. Es wurde eine „Zeitenwende“ ausgerufen, die eine Zäsur in der Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik sowie die Überwindung wirtschaftlicher Abhängigkeiten von Russland bedeutete. In diesem Beitrag wird analysiert, ob Deutschland seine Außenhandelsbeziehungen zu Russland mehr als ein Jahr nach dieser Proklamation deutlich reduziert hat. Es wird gezeigt, dass auf der deutschen Exportseite im Kriegsjahr 2022 in keinem bedeutenden Sektor eine wesentliche Abhängigkeit von Exporten nach Russland bestand. Der Bedeutungsverlust des Handels mit Russland hatte keine negativen Auswirkungen auf die Gesamtentwicklung der deutschen Exporte. Allerdings war die Dynamik der russischen Exporte bereits nach der Besetzung der Krim im Jahr 2014 gebrochen. Auf der Importseite kam es dagegen bisher nicht zu einer wesentlichen Reduzierung der Handelsbeziehungen. Bis 2022 blieb die Abhängigkeit von Russland als Rohstofflieferant hoch, insbesondere bei pipelinegebundenem Erdgas mit einem russischen Importanteil von 55 Prozent. Deutschland hat diesen politischen Fehler mit hohem Aufwand korrigiert und sich bis Ende 2022 von russischen Erdgasimporten unabhängig gemacht. |
| Keywords: | Germany, Russia, International Trade, Sanctions |
| JEL: | F14 F51 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:295209&r= |
| By: | SCHAEFER K. Aleks; NES Kjersti (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Sustainability standards may generate two opposing effects on trade flows between the importer adopting the standard and an affected exporter. First, to the extent a standard leads to an increase in the marginal costs of producing a given product in the exporting country, the standard may lead to a reduction in trade. Conversely, to the extent the standard leads to an increase in the demand for the product in the importing country, the standard may lead to an increase in trade. The net effect on trade, which depends on the relative magnitude of the two factors and the international scope of the standard (i.e. whether it is implemented multilaterally, regionally, bilaterally, or unilaterally). The general consensus in the literature appears to be that the trade-reducing effects of standards typically dominate the trade-enhancing effects of standards. However, in certain situations, the trade-enhancing effects can mitigate or even reverse these negative effects. A trade reduction does necessary imply a reduction in welfare as it may reduce consumption of goods with negative externalities. The trade effects of voluntary sustainability standards tend toward 'trade enhancing' outcomes as opposed to `trade reducing' outcomes. However, there seems to be self-selection effect: only those adopt for whom it is profitable. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc130596&r= |
| By: | Fahr, Stephan; Senner, Richard; Vismara, Andrea |
| Abstract: | While global supply chains have recently gained attention in the context of the Covid-related crisis as well as the war in Ukraine, their role in transmitting and amplifying climate-related physical risks across countries has received surprisingly little attention. To address this shortcoming, this paper for the first time combines country-level GDP losses due to climate-related physical risks with a global Input-Output model. More specifically, climate-related GDP-at-risk data are used to quantify the potential direct impact of physical risks on GDP at the country or regional level. This direct impact on GDP is then used to shock a global Input-Output (IO) model so that the propagation of the initial shock to country-sectors around the world becomes observable. The findings suggest that direct GDP loss estimates can severely underestimate the ultimate impact of physical risk because trade can lead to losses that are up to 30 times higher in the EA than what looking at the direct impacts would suggest. However, trade can also mitigate losses if substitutability across country-sectors is possible. Future research should (i) develop more granular, holistic, and forward-looking global physical risk data and (ii) examine more closely the role of both partially substitutable outputs, and critical outputs that are less substitutable or not substitutable at all, such as in the food sector. JEL Classification: E01, Q54, Q56, F18 |
| Keywords: | climate change, physical risk, supply chains |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242942&r= |
| By: | R, Pazhanisamy; Sri, Thomas Mathew |
| Abstract: | The global economy has witnessed significant transformations in recent decades, marked by the emergence of new economic powers and the evolution of financial systems. Within this context, the globalization of currencies has become a crucial aspect of international economic dynamics. This paper explores the globalization of the Indian Rupee within the framework of the new world economic order. It examines the factors driving the globalization of the rupee, including economic liberalization, financial market reforms, and India's growing integration into the global economy. Furthermore, the paper analyzes the implications of the Rupee's globalization for India's economy, financial markets, and monetary policy. By examining the possibilities of appreciation of Indian rupee and opportunities associated with the globalization of the Rupee, this paper aims to contribute to a better understanding of India's role in the evolving global economic landscape and its implications for domestic and international trade. |
| Keywords: | Money demand, currency in circulation, payment systems, monetary policy Foreign Exchange, International Policy, Globalization, Indian Rupee, New World Economic Order, Internationalization, Monetary Policy, Economic Integration. |
| JEL: | E4 E42 E47 E51 E52 F3 F31 F33 F4 G18 |
| Date: | 2024–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120650&r= |
| By: | Sascha Keil (Chemnitz University of Technology); Walter Paternesi Meloni (Sapienza University of Rome) |
| Abstract: | Over the past decades, models of circular and cumulative causation, based on the endogenous relations between prices, exports, and labour productivity, have lost prominence in explaining economic dynamics. We argue that, in the absence of counterbalancing mechanisms, the combination of price-sensitive exports and the triggering effect of exports on productivity can enable feedback loops and can significantly shape macroeconomic reality in the short-to-medium run. We apply an adapted export-led model of cumulative causation to 10 major countries belonging the Euro area, a region characterized by divergent wage growth trajectories reflected in divergent export competitiveness and lack of equilibrating mechanisms. Specifically, the model is tested for the period 1995–2020 employing a country-level system of equations (3SLS-ARDL). Our findings indicate that for the majority of the countries examined, this feedback mechanism – comprising price-sensitive exports and export demand affecting productivity growth – exacerbates macroeconomic disparities in terms of labour productivity. While nominal wages act as a potential trigger through their impact on price competitiveness, they also serve as a central factor that retards the feedback mechanism due to the Verdoorn effect of wage-induced demand. Overall, our results affirm the significance of price-induced and export-led theories of cumulative causation while also delineating its limitations, particularly regarding price competitiveness-oriented export-led growth strategies. |
| Keywords: | international trade, export, competitiveness, unit labour cost, wages, productivity, European imbalances |
| JEL: | F16 F41 J30 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tch:wpaper:cep063&r= |
| By: | Elliott, M.; Jackson, M. O. |
| Abstract: | We introduce a parsimonious multi-sector model of international production and use it to study how a disruption in the production of intermediate goods propagates through to final goods, and how that impact depends on the goods’ positions in, and overall structure of, the production network. We show that the short-run disruption can be dramatically larger than the long-run disruption. The short-run disruption depends on the value of all of the final goods whose supply chains involve a disrupted good, while by contrast the long-run disruption depends only on the cost of the disrupted goods. We use the model to show how increased complexity of supply chains leads to increased fragility in terms of the probability and expected short-run size of a disruption. We also show how decreased transportation costs can lead to increased specialization in production, with lower chances for disruption but larger impacts conditional upon disruption. |
| Keywords: | Supply Chains, Globalization, Fragility, Production Networks, International Trade |
| JEL: | D85 E23 E32 F44 F60 L14 |
| Date: | 2024–05–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2424&r= |
| By: | Alvaro Silva; Julian di Giovanni; Muhammed A. Yildirim (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan |
| Abstract: | We estimate a multi-country multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of domestic inflation during 2020–2023 in several countries, including the United States. The model matches observed inflation together with sector-level prices and wages. We further measure the relative importance of different types of shocks on inflation across countries over time. The key mechanism, the international transmission of demand, supply and energy shocks through global linkages helps us to match the behavior of the USD/Euro exchange rate. The quantification exercise yields four key findings. First, negative supply shocks to factors of production, labor and intermediate inputs, initially sparked inflation in 2020–2021. Global supply chains and complementarities in production played an amplification role in this initial phase. Second, positive aggregate demand shocks, due to stimulative policies, widened demand-supply imbalances, amplifying inflation further during 2021–2022. Third, the reallocation of consumption between goods and service sectors, a relative sector-level demand shock, played a role in transmitting these imbalances across countries through the global trade and production network. Fourth, global energy shocks have differential impacts on the US relative to other countries’ inflation rates. Further, complementarities between energy and other inputs to production play a particularly important role in the quantitative impact of these shocks on inflation. |
| Keywords: | Russia, Ukraine, China, COVID-19, Inflation |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cid:wpfacu:440&r= |
| By: | Leone, Fabrizio |
| Abstract: | U.S. equity outperformance and sustained dollar appreciation have led to large valuation gains for the rest of the world on the U.S. external position. I construct their global distribution, carefully accounting for the role of tax havens. Valuation gains are concentrated and large in developed countries, while developing countries have been mostly bypassed. To assess the welfare implications of these capital gains, I adopt a sufficient statistics approach. In contrast to the large wealth changes, most countries so far did not benefit much in welfare terms. This is because they did not rebalance their portfolios and realize their gains. In contrast, direct effects from the dollar appreciation on import and export prices are an order of magnitude larger. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Assets, Global Imbalances, Valuation Effects |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:docweb:2404&r= |
| By: | Lesego Chanza; Koketso Mantsena; Mpho Rapapali |
| Abstract: | In this economic note, we uncover changes to the big drivers of export and import volumes. We also use an error correction model to determine how the elasticities have changed over time. After co-moving with trading partner GDP, export volumes decoupled from this relationship in 2015 and tracked mining production. The economic recovery after COVID-19 saw export volumes rebound away from mining production towards global growth. However, export volumes are still constrained by domestic factors. The GFC and COVID-19 interrupted the positive relationship between import volumes and real domestic demand, albeit temporarily. The ECM results show that elasticities of export and import volumes declined after the GFC and COVID-19. The speed of adjustment to long-run equilibrium also decreased after both shocks. |
| Date: | 2024–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbz:oboens:11058&r= |
| By: | Sébastien Jean; Ariell Reshef; Gianluca Santoni; Vincent Vicard |
| Abstract: | We characterize China’s atypical dominance in world trade at the product level and analyze a number of factors that could explain it. Defining product-level dominant positions as a share of more than 50% of worldwide exports, we show that China held a dominant position in almost 600 products out of some 5, 000 in 2019. This is at least six times greater than the equivalent number for the United States, Japan or any other country, and twice the number for the European Union considered as a whole. This large number of dominant positions held by China is atypical by historical standards, at least since the 1970s. While we do not identify definite causes of China’s numerous dominant positions, we can rule out some explanations. The number of dominant positions is not explained by Chinese global market share alone. Nor is it explained by China’s sector specialization; dominant positions are prevalent in several important sectors (electronics, textiles/wearing apparel, footwear and machinery). Looking at pricing behavior, a fine-grained analysis based on individual firms’ average market share suggests that Chinese firms use their market power to charge significant mark-ups, much more than French exporters. Such product-level dominant positions make it difficult for importers to substitute their supplier for another, at least in the short term. This may be consequential in an open world increasingly seen through the lens of dependencies. |
| Keywords: | China;Export Concentration;Trade Dependencies;Economic Security |
| JEL: | F5 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepipb:2023-44&r= |
| By: | Ackah, Charles; Alemayehu Geda Fole; Görg, Holger; Merchan, Federico |
| Abstract: | Foreign investments bring in not only new employment but also novel technology, managerial skill and know-how, that may also dissipate into the local economy. It is not clear whether this effect differs by the nationality of source countries, in particular between Chinese and non-Chinese firms. Based on a firm level survey on Ethiopia and Ghana, we found that all types of firms are engaged in limited R&D and innovation activity and their transfer to host countries in both countries. There is little difference between Chinese and non-Chinese foreign firms in such technology and managerial skill transfer once controlling for firm size and industry characteristics in the majority of metrices (R&D activities, horizontal & vertical spillover, directly adopting techniques). However, we found for Ghana that Chinese firms have more suppliers but are less likely to transfer technology to them. Chinese firms are more likely to transfer managerial skills than non-Chinese firms in Ghana though not in Ethiopia. Also, there is little evidence that foreign firms transfer technology via horizontal or backward spillovers in either countries. Finally, Chinese firms are much more likely to receive host country policy support than other foreign firms in Ghana but not in Ethiopia. |
| Keywords: | Foreign direct investment, China, Africa, technological transfer, Ethiopia, Ghana |
| JEL: | F2 O1 O3 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:295225&r= |
| By: | Martin, Will; Mamun, Abdullah; Minot, Nicholas |
| Abstract: | Food trade barriers in many countries are systematically adjusted to insulate domestic markets from world price changes—a response not predicted by traditional political economy models. In this study, policymakers are assumed to minimize the political costs associated with changing domestic prices and deviating from longer-run political-economy equilibria. Error correction techniques applied to domestic and world price data for rice and wheat collected to measure trade policy distortions allow estimation of policy response parameters. The results suggest that systematic short-run price insulation reduces shocks to domestic prices but sharply increases world price volatility and the costs of trade distortions. However, idiosyncratic domestic price shocks resulting from inefficient policy instruments such as quantitative restrictions increase domestic price volatility relative to the magnified volatility of world prices—frequently outweighing the stabilizing impacts of price insulation. This fundamentally changes our understanding of the impacts of price-insulation—from a zero-sum game where some countries reduce the volatility of their prices using beggar-thy-neighbor policies that raise price volatility elsewhere, into one where price volatility rises in most countries. National policy reforms to move away from discretionary, destabilizing policies could lower costs, reduce volatility in domestic and world prices, and facilitate reform of international trade rules. |
| Keywords: | food prices; volatility; consumer economics; trade policies; behaviour; econometric models |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2253&r= |
| By: | Stephane Becuwe (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Bertrand Blancheton (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Bossoma Doriane N'Doua (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Christophe Leveque (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Samuel Maveyraud (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This article mobilises new customs data from the Third Republic in order to discuss the impact of a protectionist shock – the Méline tariff of 1892 – on French wood imports and exports (minus ⁓65 million francs per year). We show that the massive increase of the customs duty from 0.11 to 12.74% represented a fiscal boon for the State and decreased imports. Furthermore, preventive imports occurred in 1891 before the tariff was implemented. We also discuss the effect of this tariff on the evolution of the wood resource and the wood sector. Contrary to the concerns of certain contemporaries, the Méline tariff does not seem to have led to resource overexploitation. |
| Abstract: | Cet article mobilise de nouvelles données douanières sur la Troisième République afin de discuter de l'impact d'un choc protectionniste – le tarif Méline de 1892 – sur les importations et les exportations de bois françaises (environ -65 millions de francs par an). Nous montrons que la hausse massive du taux de protection douanière (passant de 0, 11 % à 12, 74 %) a représenté une aubaine fiscale pour l'État et a diminué les importations. Par ailleurs, nous remarquons un phénomène d'importations préventives en 1891 avant la mise en place du tarif. Nous discutons également de l'effet de ce tarif sur l'évolution de la ressource et sur la filière bois. Au contraire des inquiétudes de certains contemporains, le tarif Méline ne semble pas avoir conduit à une surexploitation des ressources. |
| Keywords: | Protectionism, Foreign trade, Méline tariff, Third Republic, protectionnisme, commerce extérieur, tarif Méline, troisième République |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04564585&r= |
| By: | Okan Akarsu; Altan Aldan; Huzeyfe Torun |
| Abstract: | Financial constraints may hamper firm exports since firms may have to bear export-related costs before they obtain export revenues. Hence, export credits are widely used around the world to mitigate the negative effects of financial constraints. This paper focuses on a specific type of subsidized export credit, namely the export rediscount credit scheme implemented by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT), and investigates whether credit-using firms' exports increase more than they do for firms that do not use this credit in the short run without implying a causal relationship. To achieve this, we combine four datasets: the firm-level monthly data on rediscount credit, firm-level monthly data on exports, firms’ annual balance sheet and income statements, and firm-level annual data on employment. We find that receiving rediscount credit is positively correlated with export growth in the short run. This correlation is robust to using alternative measures of credit use, such as a discrete measure of receiving the rediscount credit and the amount of credit. Second, we discover that the correlation between the use of rediscount credits and export growth is stronger among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Third, we investigate whether the association between rediscount credits and firm exports is non-linear and find that exports increase less proportionately for a higher level of rediscount credits. Finally, we find that both FX- and TL-denominated credits are positively correlated with exports. |
| Keywords: | Rediscount credit, Exports, Türkiye |
| JEL: | D22 F14 O16 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2407&r= |
| By: | Simon J. Bolz; Fabrice Naumann; Philipp M. Richter |
| Abstract: | Expanding on a general equilibrium model of offshoring, we analyze the effects of a unilateral emissions tax increase on the environment, income, and inequality. Heterogeneous firms allocate labor across production tasks and emissions abatement, while only the most productive can benefit from lower labor and/or emissions costs abroad and offshore. We find a non-monotonic effect on global emissions, which decline if the initial difference in emissions taxes is small. For a sufficiently large difference, global emissions rise, implying emissions leakage of more than 100%. The underlying driver is a global technique effect: While the emissions intensity of incumbent non-offshoring firms declines, the cleanest firms start offshoring. Moreover, offshoring firms become dirtier, induced by a reduction in the foreign effective emissions tax in general equilibrium. Implementing a BCA prevents emissions leakage, reduces income inequality in the reforming country, but raises inequality across countries. |
| Keywords: | offshoring, emissions leakage, environmental policy, BCA, heterogeneous firms, income inequality |
| JEL: | F18 F12 F15 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11096&r= |
| By: | Bolz, Simon J.; Naumann, Fabrice; Richter, Philipp M. |
| Abstract: | Expanding on a general equilibrium model of offshoring, we analyze the effects of a unilateral emissions tax increase on the environment, income, and inequality. Heterogeneous firms allocate labor across production tasks and emissions abatement, while only the most productive can benefit from lower labor and/or emissions costs abroad and offshore. We find a non-monotonic effect on global emissions, which decline if the initial difference in emissions taxes is small. For a sufficiently large difference, global emissions rise, implying emissions leakage of more than 100%. The underlying driver is a global technique effect: While the emissions intensity of incumbent non-offshoring firms declines, the cleanest firms start offshoring. Moreover, offshoring firms become dirtier, induced by a reduction in the foreign effective emissions tax in general equilibrium. Implementing a BCA prevents emissions leakage, reduces income inequality in the reforming country, but raises inequality across countries. |
| Keywords: | Offshoring, Emissions leakage, Environmental policy, BCA, Heterogeneous firms, Income inequality |
| JEL: | F18 F12 F15 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wuewep:295231&r= |
| By: | Christoph Albert; Paula Bustos; Jacopo Ponticelli |
| Abstract: | Climate change is expected to reduce agricultural productivity in developing countries. Classic international trade and geography models predict that the optimal adaptation response is a reallocation of capital and labor from agriculture towards sectors and regions gaining comparative advantage. In this paper, we provide evidence on the effects of recent changes in climate in Brazil to understand to what extent factor market frictions constrain this reallocation process. We document that persistent increases in dryness do not generate capital reallocation but a sharp reduction in credit to all sectors in both drying areas and financially integrated regions. In additionn, dryness generates a large reduction in agricultural employment. Workers staying in drying regions reallocate towards manufacturing but climate migrants are allocated to small firms outside of manufacturing in destination regions. The evidence suggests that frictions in the interbank market and spatial labor market frictions constrain the reallocation process from agriculture to manufacturing. |
| Keywords: | droughts, SPEI, Brazil, migration, financial integration |
| JEL: | O1 Q54 O16 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1887&r= |
| By: | Carlos, Ann M.; Green, Erik; Links, Calumet; Redish, Angela |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the responses of Indigenous nations and European companies to new trading opportunities: Cree nations and the Hudson's Bay Company (HBC), and Khoe nations and the Dutch East India Company (VOC). This case study is important because of the disparate outcomes: within a few decades the Cree standard of living had increased, and Khoe had lost land and cattle. Standard histories begin with the establishment of trading posts but this elides the decades of prior intermittent contact which played an important role in the disparate outcomes in the two regions. The paper emphasizes the significance of Indigenous agency in trade. |
| Keywords: | Indigenous economics, trade, ecology, cross-continental comparison |
| JEL: | N30 N70 N71 N77 J15 Q57 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:295244&r= |
| By: | - |
| Abstract: | This report presents significant findings from the Regional Digital Trade Integration Index (RDTII), highlighting similarities and differences among the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean. After introducing the Digital Trade Integration database and the methodology used in RDTII, the report outlines the main index scores by country and pillar. Jamaica, with the lowest score of 0.14, has the most open regulatory environment for digital trade in the region, whereas Cuba, with the highest score of 0.62, has a regulatory environment that is quite restrictive. The report also summarizes the findings for each of the 12 pillars of RDTII and offers a snapshot of the regulatory similarity across pillars, highlighting the pillars that offer opportunities for practicable regulatory harmonization in the region. The document concludes with some policy recommendations. |
| Date: | 2024–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:69178&r= |
| By: | ITO Hiroyuki; KAWAI Masahiro |
| Abstract: | The US dollar has long been the most dominant international currency used for international trade, investment, financial settlements, foreign exchange market trading, foreign reserve holding, and exchange rate anchoring. This paper develops a new method to estimate the size of major currency zones, i.e., those for the US dollar (USD), euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British pound sterling (GBP), and Chinese yuan (RMB), and identify their determinants. The paper employs the simple Frankel-Wei (1994) and Kawai-Pontines (2016) estimation models to identify major anchor currencies and the degree of exchange rate stability (ERS) for each economy. The paper uses the estimated currency weights to construct the size of major currency zones globally and regionally over time and econometrically identify the determinants of these currency weights. In this analysis, the paper considers the degree of ERS, defined by the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of the estimation model, which allows for the possibility that a part of each economy or region or part of the world is under a floating exchange rate regime. This method avoids overestimating the size of a particular major currency zone such as the RMB zone, when economies do not rigidly stabilize their currencies to such a major currency, and thus presents a better picture that is more consistent with the current state of the international monetary system. The paper yields several interesting results. First, the global economic share of the USD zone, still the largest in the world, has declined over time due to the emergence of the EUR zone and the recent rapid rise of the RMB zone. The size of the EUR zone is larger than that of the RMB zone if the degree of ERS is taken into account. Additionally, the share of the world economy under floating exchange rates has expanded in size over time. Second, the USD zone is the largest in the Middle East & Central Asia, followed by emerging & developing Asian and Sub-Saharan African economies, while the EUR zone is dominant in emerging & developing economies in Europe. The USD zone share has been declining rapidly in Latin America & the Caribbean. The size of the RMB zone has been increasing in most regions. Third, the USD weight is positively affected by the share of trade with the United States and the US dollar shares in export invoicing and cross-border bank liabilities. Similarly, the EUR weight is positively affected by economies’ shares of trade with the Euro Area as well as the euro shares in export invoicing, inward FDI stock, and cross-border bank liabilities. The RMB weight is not significantly affected by economies’ shares of trade with, or inward FDI stock or borrowing from China. The paper provides some policy implications. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:24059&r= |
| By: | Marcel Smolka |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effect of immigration on consumer prices in Spain between 1997 and 2013. Using variation across provinces, we first document a positive correlation between consumer prices and the share of migrants in the population. However, controlling for regional supply and demand shocks, and addressing endogeneity through an instrumental variables approach, we show that immigration has actually reduced consumer prices in Spain. An increase in the share of migrants by 10 percentage points reduces (CPI-weighted) consumer prices by approx. 1.25 percent. We show that the effect materializes around the years of the 2008 financial crisis, and that it is concentrated among non-tradable goods and services. Focusing on individual products, we find that some of those products that rely most heavily on migrant labor have been subject to considerable price reductions, while we find no such effects for those products that make intensive use of native labor. Finally, we find that it is immigration from outside Western Europe that led to a reduction in consumer prices, while the effect of immigration from Western Europe is zero. Overall, our results paint a complex picture of the effects of immigration on consumer prices. They support the idea that immigration can reduce consumer prices through both supply-side and demand-side channels. |
| Keywords: | immigration, consumer prices, Spain |
| JEL: | F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11097&r= |
| By: | Patrice Pieretti (DEM, Université du Luxembourg); Giuseppe Pulina (Banque Centrale du Luxembourg); Andreas Sintos (DEM, Université du Luxembourg); Skerdilajda Zanaj (DEM, Université du Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we model migration patterns as the outcome of strategic public policies adopted by competing jurisdictions. We assume that two economies, distinguished by different technological levels, host a continuum of mobile individuals with varying skill levels. To maximize their net revenues, governments compete for mobile workers by taxing wages and providing a public good that enhances firm productivity (public input). We show that the most skilled workers migrate to the technologically advanced economy. However, by offering lower taxes or more public inputs, the less technologically developed country can retain part of its skilled labor force and attract skilled workers from abroad, albeit not the most qualified. As a result, a two-way migration pattern emerges, driven by governments’ strategic policy choices. Finally, the introduction of heterogeneity in population size does not significantly alter the results. |
| Keywords: | Bilateral migration; Tax competition; Heterogeneous skills; Technological gap; Policy competition. |
| JEL: | H20 H30 H54 H87 F22 F60 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luc:wpaper:24-04&r= |
| By: | Valérie Mignon; Blaise Gnimassoun; Carl Grekou |
| Abstract: | Premature deindustrialization in most emerging and developing economies is one of the most striking stylized facts of the recent decades. In this paper, we provide solid empirical evidence supporting that the choice of a fixed exchange rate regime accelerates this phenomenon. Relying on a panel of 146 developed, emerging, and developing countries over the 1974-2019 period, we show that fixed exchange rate regimes have had a negative, significant, and robust effect on the size of the manufacturing sector —developing countries being the most affected by the industrial cost of such a regime. Additional gravity model regressions show that the impact of fixed regimes passes through the trade channel. In particular, this regime has kept countries with low relative productivity in a state of structural dependence on imports of manufactured products to the detriment of the emergence of a strong local manufacturing sector. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate regimes; (De)industrialization; Manufacturing; Developing countries; Emerging economies |
| JEL: | E42 F43 F45 F6 O14 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2024-18&r= |
| By: | Bottasso, Anna (CIRIEC); Cerruti, Gianluca (University of Genoa); Conti, Maurizio (University of Genoa); Santagata, Marta (University of Genova) |
| Abstract: | In this study we evaluate the role that Mediterranean Medieval trade with Africa and the Middle-East still plays today in Italian politics by shaping the attitudes towards migrants of individuals that live close to Medieval ports. Trade connections between Medieval ports and Muslim Africa and Middle East might have indeed favoured the emergence of cultural traits that helped the interaction with foreigners from different cultures, ethnicity and religion a few centuries before with respect to other areas of the country. We use a representative survey of young individuals (aged 20-35) to show that, conditionally on a rich set of geographic, historic, economic and individual controls, people living close to a Medieval port are less likely to think that migrants make Italy an unsafe place as well as to report right-wing voting attitudes. Moreover, we also find, in those areas, a lower probability of xenophobic attacks during the spike of refugees from Siria of 2015. Interestingly, right-wing parties started to attract less votes near Medieval ports only when immigration had become a very salient issue. Similarly, we find a lower probability of Jewish deportations close to Medieval ports during the Nazi occupation, the only period in Italian contemporary history when a minority group was explicitly targeted by the government. This in turn suggests that some deep-rooted cultural traits, although not observed and not clearly at work in society, can become visible when the right historical and political circumstances take place. |
| Keywords: | political ideology, immigration, cultural transmission, medieval trade sea routes, Roman road network |
| JEL: | D72 N70 N90 O10 O12 P48 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16996&r= |
| By: | Jang, Won-Joon (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Kim, Mi Jung (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Park, Hea Ji (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | The newly elected government in Poland has made a series of public statements suggesting it may review the major defense contract that its predecessor administration signed with Korea. On December 27, 2023, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that his government had yet to receive the contractually specified loans necessary for Poland to finalize the purchase and acquisition of Korean weapons and technologies. Tusk hinted that his government may review the entirety of the contract, while suggesting that he did not wish to see any changes made to it. Seeing its major arms deal with Poland collapse would make it much more difficult for the Korean government to realize its vision of making Korea one of the four major global defense exporters. Over the past two years, Korea and Poland have concluded a two-phase defense contract. The first is worth USD 12.4 billion and would see Korea send K2 tanks and other major systems to Poland. The second phase is worth USD 2.6 billion, and involves the sale of K9 self-propelled howitzers, among other systems. The two countries are yet to complete the third phase of the contract, which could be worth as much as USD 30 billion. This would see more K2 tanks and K9 howitzers shipped to Poland, along with K239 multiple-launch rocket systems. Failing to close the deal would be a significant setback to Korea’s plans to increase its exports to the rest of Europe and the world. It is crucial that the government take immediate action to amend the Export-Import Bank of Korea Act. This is necessary to raise the ceiling on the Export-Import Bank of Korea (Eximbank)’s capital reserves, from the current KRW 15 trillion to KRW 35 trillion or more. Incentives should also be devised to encourage Korean commercial banks to participate (by providing syndicated loans, for example), helping to mitigate interest rate risk and facilitate the purchase of Polish sovereign debt. |
| Keywords: | arms deals; weapons systems; Korea-Poland deal; defense financing; defense exports; arms industry; defense industry; weapons exports; K2 tank; K9 howitzer; K239 rocket; KIET |
| JEL: | F13 F53 G21 G28 G32 G38 L52 L62 L64 |
| Date: | 2024–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietia:2024_002&r= |
| By: | Toke S. Aidt; Facundo Albornoz; Esther Hauk |
| Abstract: | This article explores the complex interplay between deforestation policies and foreign influence, using a game theoretical model to analyze geopolitical factors influencing forest conservation decisions in countries with significant rainforests. The model highlights the conflicting interests of foreign powers – one aiming for economic benefits from agriculture and the other advocating for forest preservation due to environmental services. The paper demonstrates how domestic political dynamics and economic shocks influence the regulatory decisions on deforestation. This understanding is crucial for formulating strategies that balance developmental needs and global environmental concerns. |
| Keywords: | foreign influence, geopolitics, deforestation, food security, Brazil, China, rainforest |
| JEL: | D72 D74 O13 Q23 P33 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1441&r= |
| By: | Giovanis, Eleftherios; Akdede, Sacit Hadi; Ozdamar, Oznur |
| Abstract: | Political tensions linked with immigration flows have sparked and stimulated the debate about migration and the integration of migrants to host societies. We aim to examine the participation of Syrian forced migrants in socio-cultural activities in Turkey and compare the frequency of participation with Turkish respondents. The second aim is to study the influence of participation in socio-cultural activities on subjective well-being (SWB). An interesting finding is that Syrians report higher SWB levels than Turkish respondents. Moreover, the study shows that integration and social inclusion should not be attributed solely to immigrants but should also rely on the efforts of the recipient societies since financial constraints and income disparities may potentially make it more difficult for migrants’ socio-cultural participation. It is critical to explore the role of socio-cultural participation in SWB because of the belief that this facility promotes social inclusion, building more cohesive communities, which in turn improves well-being. |
| Keywords: | Cinema and Theatrical Plays; First-Generation Immigrants; Social and Cultural Participation; Subjective Well-Being; Syrian Migrants |
| JEL: | Z10 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120906&r= |
| By: | Boeing, Philipp; Mueller, Elisabeth |
| Abstract: | The global economic landscape has fundamentally shifted from the paradigm of globalization to renewed concerns regarding the risks and rewards of technological interdependence. This shift has sparked a critical discussion on technology sovereignty. This concept refers to a country's ability to provide essential technologies for competitiveness and welfare, and to develop or acquire them from other geographic areas without being unilaterally dependent on any particular one. We analyze the technology sovereignty of the world's leading innovators, including Europe, the US, China, Japan and Korea. By examining citation data from the universe of PCT patent applications, we determine the strength and direction of inventions' influence at global and bilateral levels to assess each geographic area's technology sovereignty. Our analysis shows that the US holds substantial technology sovereignty due to its leading global and bilateral influence. Despite ongoing US-European integration, their global positions differ, as Europe is dependent on all other areas except China. Although China has globally filed the most patent applications in recent years, bilaterally it remains dependent on all other geographic areas. Moreover, only Japan and Korea show a recent decline in their global influence. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewpbs:294873&r= |
| By: | Fortin, Pierre |
| Abstract: | I study the impact of Canada's expansive immigration policy launched in 2016 on labour shortages in six regions of the country, particularly in Quebec, which enjoys some autonomy of management in this area. I look at movements of the Beveridge curve, which draws the classical inverse relation between the job vacancy rate and the unemployment rate, before, during, and after the 2020-2021 pandemic. Since immigration not only expands the supply of labour, but also adds to the demand for labour in the overall economy, its net effect on job vacancies in the aggregate is a priori uncertain. To clarify matters, I present a statistical analysis of pre- and post-pandemic data in the six Canadian regions. Results suggest that the common-sense belief that more immigration contributes to reducing economy-wide labour scarcity is wrong and constitutes a dangerous fallacy of composition. |
| Abstract: | La présente étude analyse l'effet de la politique d'immigration expansive du Canada amorcée en 2016 sur la pénurie de main-d'œuvre dans six régions du pays, et tout particulièrement au Québec, qui dispose d'une certaine autonomie de gestion en la matière. J'examine l'évolution de la courbe de Beveridge, c'est-à-dire de la relation classique inverse observée entre le taux de postes vacants et le taux de chômage, avant, pendant et après la pandémie de 2020-2021. Comme l'immigration fait augmenter non seulement l'offre de main-d'œuvre, mais aussi la demande de main-d'œuvre, son effet net sur le taux de postes vacants dans l'ensemble de l'économie est a priori incertain. Pour y voir clair, je présente une analyse statistique des données d'avant et d'après la pandémie dans les six régions du Canada. Elle tend à démontrer que l'hypothèse du « gros bon sens », voulant que plus d'immigration permet d'atténuer une pénurie de main-d'œuvre qui est généralisée dans l'économie, est fausse et constitue un dangereux sophisme de composition. |
| Keywords: | immigration, labour shortages, job vacancies, unemployment, Beveridge curve |
| JEL: | J11 J21 J23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:clefwp:295741&r= |
| By: | Charly Porcher; Eduardo Morales; Thomas Fujiwara |
| Abstract: | We investigate the role of information frictions in migration. We develop novel moment inequalities to estimate worker preferences while allowing for unobserved worker-specific information sets, migration costs, and location-specific amenities and prices. Using data on internal migration in Brazil, we find that common estimation procedures underestimate the importance of expected wages in migration choices, and that workers face substantial and heterogeneous information frictions. Model specification tests indicate that workers living in regions with higher internet access and larger populations have more precise wage information, and that information precision decreases with distance. Our estimated model predicts that information frictions play a quantitatively important role in reducing migration flows and worker welfare, and limit the welfare gains from reductions in migration costs. |
| JEL: | F10 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32413&r= |
| By: | Glyn Wittwer |
| Abstract: | The USAGE-TERM database has been updated to 2019. The tasks commences with a dated national CGE database. BEA's supply-use matrices for 2017 provide updates to industry technologies. National accounts data at the national and state level for 2019 provide broad sector targets for updates and regional industry activity shares. International trade data by port for 2019 are used to update international merchandise trade in the database. As in previous USAGE-TERM databases, agricultural census data provides estimates of regional outputs for disaggregated crops and livestock. International data on the location and type of generation of power stations enable a split of electricity into different types of generation. An innovation in this version of USAGE-TERM is a split of a subset of national commodities. The split distinguishes commodities reliant on water transport in the Mississippi Valley and Snake-Columbia river systems from the same commodities reliant on land transport elsewhere. |
| Keywords: | Regional CGE modelling |
| JEL: | C68 D57 D58 R15 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-346&r= |
| By: | Saheel A. Chodavadia; Sari Pekkala Kerr; William R. Kerr; Louis J. Maiden |
| Abstract: | Immigrants contribute disproportionately to entrepreneurship in many countries, accounting for a quarter of new employer businesses in the US. We review recent research on the measurement of immigrant entrepreneurship, the traits of immigrant founders, their economic impact, and policy levers. We provide updated statistics on the share of US entrepreneurs who are immigrants. We utilize the Annual Business Survey to quantify the greater rates of patenting and innovation in immigrant-founded firms. This higher propensity towards innovation is only partly explained by differences in education levels and fields of study. We conclude with avenues for future research. |
| JEL: | F22 F6 J15 J61 L26 M13 O15 O3 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32400&r= |
| By: | Christoph Böhringer; Knut Einar Rosendahl; Halvor Briseid Storrøsten |
| Abstract: | Countries with ambitious climate targets are concerned about carbon leakage to countries with more lenient or no carbon pricing. A common policy measure against leakage is output-based allocation of emissions allowances, whose effectiveness could be further enhanced by consumption taxes levied on the carbon intensity of goods. We combine theoretical and numerical analysis to derive optimal combinations of output-based allocation and consumption taxes for different assumptions on the stringency of emissions reduction targets, the coverage of emissions in regulated sectors, and their trade exposure. A key analytical finding is that output-based allocation and consumption taxes are complements rather than substitutes, i.e., the extent of output-based allocation should be higher if combined with a consumption tax. A key numerical finding is that the optimal output-based allocation and consumption tax rates should be set at almost the same rate and increase substantially with the stringency of the emissions reduction targets. |
| Keywords: | carbon leakage, output-based allocation, consumption taxes |
| JEL: | D61 F18 H23 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11102&r= |
| By: | Antea Barišić; Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Alireza Sabouniha (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the determinants of outward migration decisions while focusing on CESEE countries and using data from the OeNB Euro Survey conducted by the Oesterrichische Nationalbank (OeNB), a data source that has yet to be exploited at the individual level. Applying a two-stage Heckman procedure, we identify the determinants of the intention to migrate, including age, gender, ties at home, household characteristics and income. In the second stage, we analyse the characteristics of those who expressed a desire to migrate and investigate the determinants of the choice of the respective destination, distinguishing between EU15, EU-CEE and extra-EU countries. The insights in this paper might help to inform fact-based migration and public policies in addition to laying some groundwork for further research (a) concerning the impact of new technologies and demographic trends on the intentions to migrate as well as (b) establishing a firmer link between the intention to migrate and actual migration. |
| Keywords: | migration drivers, migration aspirations/desires, destination decision, choice model |
| JEL: | F22 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:247&r= |
| By: | NECHIFOR Victor (European Commission - JRC); FERRARI Emanuele (European Commission - JRC); NDONG NTAH Marcellin; NANDELENGA Martin; YALEW Amsalu Woldie |
| Abstract: | The Kenyan economy was significantly affected by the global supply chain disruptions stemming from the Russian invasion. The macroeconomic impacts were largely driven by global fertilizer and fossil fuel price increases. Rural households were nevertheless affected by raising food prices, notably those of vegetable oils. Kenyan Government intervention through fossil fuel subsidies contributed to an ease of the cost of living crisis by reducing prices, but came at a considerable fiscal cost. Fertilizer subsidies proved to enhance food security by boosting agricultural output with positive fiscal secondary effects. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc136628&r= |
| By: | Alpes, Maybritt Jill |
| Abstract: | The article examines how academics can mobilize their epistemic resources to engage with justice claims able to challenge border violence. Many migration scholars would like to find ways to mobilize their knowledge to resist migrants’ human rights violations. Despite increased focus on research impact, border violence is only increasing. On the one hand, policy makers do not act on scholarly recommendations that are highly critical, but not necessarily actionable. On the other hand, when scholarly recommendations are actionable, legal and policy changes do not necessarily result in meaningful improvements for refugees’ and other migrants’ dignity. As a result, there is a dichotomy between applied research that is not critical and critical research that is not actionable. Against this backdrop, this article explores how migration researchers can reclaim the meaning of impact and smuggle critique into the term. The article is based on auto-biographical explorations of what it means for an anthropologist to produce knowledge on migration from within law faculties and as policy officer and research consultant for human and refugee rights organizations. Based on this material, the article argues that migration scholars who seek justice should not produce more evidence, but rather take law seriously as a knowledge practice. The article develops three design principles for migration scholars who seek to resist in the short- and medium-term migration laws and policies that violate human right principles. First, build knowledge alliances with justice actors. Second, theorize knowledge needs in justice claims. Third, broker the validity of truth claims. |
| Date: | 2024–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:mzy8h&r= |
| By: | Xiao Cen; Vyacheslav Fos; Wei Jiang |
| Abstract: | China’s industrial policies (“Five-Year Plans”) displace U.S. production/employment and heighten plant closures in the same industries as those targeted by the policies in China. The impact was not anticipated by the stock market, but U.S. companies in the "treated industries" suffer a valuation loss afterwards. Firms shift production to upstream or downstream industries benefiting from the boost, or offshore to government-endorsed industries in China. Such within-firm adjustments offset the direct impact. U.S. firms are better able to withstand foreign government interventions provided that they enjoy flexibility, including preexisting business toeholds in the "beneficiary" industries, financial access, and labor fluidity. |
| JEL: | G3 G30 G31 G38 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32411&r= |
| By: | KERAMIDAS Kimon; FOSSE Florian (European Commission - JRC); DIAZ RINCON Andrea (European Commission - JRC); DOWLING Paul (European Commission - JRC); GARAFFA Rafael (European Commission - JRC); ORDONEZ Jose (European Commission - JRC); RUSS Peter (European Commission - JRC); SCHADE Burkhard (European Commission - JRC); SCHMITZ Andreas (European Commission - JRC); SORIA RAMIREZ Antonio (European Commission - JRC); VAN DER VORST Camille (European Commission - JRC); WEITZEL Matthias (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | This edition of the Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO 2023) presents an updated view on the implications of energy and climate policies worldwide to reaching the goals of the Paris Agreement, and contributes to JRC’s work in the UNFCCC policy process. This report provides insight into the investment and related new jobs required by the transition to a low-carbon economy. Current climate policy pledges and targets imply a rapid decline in greenhouse gas emissions. Still, there remains both an implementation gap in adopting policies aligned with countries' mid-term Nationally Determined Contributions and Long-Term Strategies, and a collective ambition gap in reducing emissions to reach the Paris Agreement targets of pursuing efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Global emissions are projected to peak during the current decade, but failing to implement additional policies puts the world on a trajectory towards a long-term temperature increase of 3°C. The current decade is key for keeping the 1.5°C target possible. GECO 2023 highlights the global investment needs of the 1.5°C scenario. Accelerated carbonisation efforts are needed across all sectors of the economy. Energy sector investments need to triple this decade, doubling energy efficiency rates and bringing renewables deployment to 11 TW by 2030. This transition comes along with substantial investment spill-over and stimulus effects, boosting investment and employment across value chains, e.g. in the construction and electrical and equipment goods manufacturing. |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc136265&r= |
| By: | Saroj Bhattarai (University of Texas at Austin); Arpita Chatterjee (University of New South Wales); Gautham Udupa (CAFRAL, Reserve Bank of India) |
| Abstract: | Exogenous global commodity price shocks lead to a significant decline over time in Indian household consumption. These negative effects are heterogeneous along the income distribution: households in lower income groups experience more adverse consumption effects following an exogenous rise in food prices, whereas households in the lowest and the two highest income groups are affected similarly following an exogenous rise in oil prices. We investigate how income and relative price changes contribute to generating these heterogeneous effects. Global food price shocks lead to significant negative wage income effects that mirror the pattern of negative consumption effects along the income distribution. Both global oil and food price shocks pass-through to local consumer prices in India and increase the relative prices of fuel and food respectively. Expenditure share of food increases with such a rise in relative prices, which provides unambiguous evidence for nonhomothetic preferences. Using the expenditure share responses together with theory, we show that food, compared to fuel, is a necessary consumption good for all income groups. |
| Keywords: | Global Price shocks; Food prices; Oil prices; Inequality; Household heterogeneity; Household consumption; Necessary good; Non-homotheticity; India |
| JEL: | F41 F62 O11 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:swe:wpaper:2024-03&r= |
| By: | Peter B. Dixon; Maureen T. Rimmer |
| Abstract: | By 2020, the GTAP team had created 4 comparable GTAP databases, referring to the years 2004, 2007, 2011 and 2014. They had also produced a preliminary 2017 database. The aim of the project reported in this paper was to use this time series of databases to derive and apply methods for: 1: estimating trends at a disaggregated level in industry technologies and consumer preferences; 2: creating baseline forecasts incorporating a wide range of macro, demographic and energy forecasts from specialist organizations together with disaggregated technology and preference trends; and 3: updating and checking GTAP databases, and establishing validation methods for assessing the performance of baseline forecasts. Towards these objectives, we produced several interim reports and 3 final reports. This paper explains our methods and reviews the project findings. |
| Keywords: | GTAP data, Estimating technology trends, Baseline forecasting, Updating and validation |
| JEL: | C68 E17 D57 D58 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-345&r= |