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on International Trade |
| By: | Jaerim Choi (School of Economics, Yonsei University); Masahiro Endoh (Faculty of Business and Commerce, Keio University); Akira Sasahara (Faculty of Economics, Keio University) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the effects of imports from China and exports to the rest of the world on labor markets using the data from two major trading partners of China: Japan and the US. An analysis shows that imports of final goods from China and exports to the rest of the world have the same effects on manufacturing employment in the two countries: the former effect is negative, and the latter is positive. In contrast, imported inputs are shown to have different effects on manufacturing employment across the two countries: positive in Japan but negative in the US. We show that these contrasting effects relate to the extent to which these countries integrate into global value chains. In particular, we focus on areas specializing in more downstream sectors in the two countries and uncover that cheaper access to Chinese intermediate inputs allow Japanese input buyers to boost manufacturing employment through input-output linkages. However, the US experienced negative employment effects in those areas, suggesting that the US input buyers do not take advantage of the complementary effects of global value chains, especially with China. |
| Keywords: | The China trade shock, imported inputs, exports, global value chains, manufacturing employment |
| JEL: | F14 F16 F66 |
| Date: | 2024–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:2024-012&r= |
| By: | Balma, Lacina; Heidland, Tobias; Jävervall, Sebastian; Mahlkow, Hendrik; Mukasa, Adamon N.; Woldemichael, Andinet |
| Abstract: | Russia's invasion of Ukraine has threatened global grain supplies as it reduces production and exports while increasing trade costs. While the overall share of Africa's trade with Ukraine and Russia is small, the concentration of imports in products such as wheat, other grains, and fertilizer is critical to food security. This paper investigates the long‐term impacts of the conflict on grain imports and prices in Africa. We use a long‐run general equilibrium trade model to study three scenarios that may evolve as a consequence of the conflict: (1) a heavily reduced Ukrainian production of wheat and other grains; (2) rising trade costs with Ukraine and Russia due to disrupted trade routes in the Black Sea and the sanctions against trading with Russia; and (3) an outright ban on Russian grain export. The model simulations show that the conflict severely affects grain imports, raising local prices for wheat and other grains, with especially strong effects in high import‐dependent countries. That creates risks for food security in some African countries. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, food insecurity, food prices, grain, trade, trade disruptions, war, wheat |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:294185&r= |
| By: | MASKAEVA Asiya; MGENI Charles; MSAFIRI Mgeni; KINYONDO Godbertha; MSEMO Emanuel Mbazi; NECHIFOR Victor (European Commission - JRC); EL MELIGI Andrea (European Commission - JRC); FERREIRA Valeria; BOYSEN Ole (European Commission - JRC); SIMOLA Antti (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | This study utilises the DEMETRA (Dynamic Equilibrium Model for Economic Development, Resources and Agriculture) computable general equilibrium model to conduct an economy-wide assessment of the impacts of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on mainland Tanzania. The model provides a comprehensive description of the trade agreements effects on the economy as a whole, and on the agriculture and industrial sectors in particular. The study also employs a global, multiregional model to determine the trade creation and diversion effects of four liberalisation schedules defined by various policy objectives. The findings show that the AfCFTA will have a positive effect on both economic growth and welfare, mainly because the reduction in trade barriers, especially non-tariff barriers, will result in increased consumption and output (by reducing distortions) and consequently an improvement in efficiency. The Tanzanian national income is expected to improve as exports increase. Exporting sectors that are expected to gain include the agriculture, food processing, textiles, chemicals, paper and glass sectors. The AfCFTA will lead to increased output in industries that employ a large number of women, leading to a rise in their relative wages. In the agriculture sector, cash crops production will expand to a greater extent than that of food crops, and male labour employment in this sector will expand. Primary commodities will continue to be the most important exports. The study shows that trade in Tanzania is dominated by trade in raw materials, with trade in manufactured goods correspondingly weak, which is clearly reflected in current patterns in intra- and extra-African trade. The findings thus highlight the need for the Tanzanian government to promote industrialisation. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc136637&r= |
| By: | Sascha Keil; Walter Paternesi Meloni |
| Abstract: | Over the past decades, models of circular and cumulative causation, based on the endogenous relations between prices, exports, and labour productivity, have lost prominence in explaining economic dynamics. We argue that, in the absence of counterbalancing mechanisms, the combination of price-sensitive exports and the triggering effect of exports on productivity can enable feedback loops and can significantly shape macroeconomic reality in the short-to-medium run. We apply an adapted export-led model of cumulative causation to 10 major countries belonging the Euro area, a region characterized by divergent wage growth trajectories reflected in divergent export competitiveness and lack of equilibrating mechanisms. Specifically, the model is tested for the period 1995–2020 employing a country-level system of equations (3SLS-ARDL). Our findings indicate that for the majority of the countries examined, this feedback mechanism – comprising price-sensitive exports and export demand affecting productivity growth – exacerbates macroeconomic disparities in terms of labour productivity. While nominal wages act as a potential trigger through their impact on price competitiveness, they also serve as a central factor that retards the feedback mechanism due to the Verdoorn effect of wage-induced demand. Overall, our results affirm the significance of price-induced and export-led theories of cumulative causation while also delineating its limitations, particularly regarding price competitiveness-oriented export-led growth strategies. |
| Keywords: | international trade, export, competitiveness, unit labour cost, wages, productivity, european imbalances |
| JEL: | F16 F41 J30 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:fmmpap:103-2024&r= |
| By: | João Bento (University of Aveiro) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to examine the direct effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the host-country environment. More specifically, how FDI moderates the relationship between democratic institutions and anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in a panel of 80 democratic nations during the period 1992-2018. The author uses the System Generalized Method of Moments, first difference and system estimators, which allows for the control for present reverse causality and endogeneity in the research design. For robustness checks, I use the cross-sectional dependence and Driscoll-Kraay robust errors panel regression method. Robust evidence is found in support of the pollution halo hypothesis, in a way that carbon dioxide emissions fall. The findings suggest that FDI moderates the relationship between several varieties of democratic institutions and carbon dioxide emissions. |
| Keywords: | FDI, Environmental impact, Anthropogenic emissions, Democratic institutions, Pollution halo, STRIPAT, GMM, Fixed effects |
| JEL: | Q01 Q58 Q56 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:14115811&r= |
| By: | Elliott, M.; Jackson, M. O. |
| Abstract: | We introduce a parsimonious multi-sector model of international production and use it to study how a disruption in the production of intermediate goods propagates through to final goods, and how that impact depends on the goods’ positions in, and overall structure of, the production network. We show that the short-run disruption can be dramatically larger than the long-run disruption. The short-run disruption depends on the value of all of the final goods whose supply chains involve a disrupted good, while by contrast the long-run disruption depends only on the cost of the disrupted goods. We use the model to show how increased complexity of supply chains leads to increased fragility in terms of the probability and expected short-run size of a disruption. We also show how decreased transportation costs can lead to increased specialization in production, with lower chances for disruption but larger impacts conditional upon disruption. |
| Keywords: | Supply Chains, Globalization, Fragility, Production Networks, International Trade |
| JEL: | D85 E23 E32 F44 F60 L14 |
| Date: | 2024–05–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camjip:2415&r= |
| By: | Luca Tausch; Jeffrey Althouse |
| Abstract: | The theory of ecologically unequal exchange (EUE) suggests that there exists an asymmetric transfer of biophysical resources from the periphery to the core. Despite ample evidence demonstrating this fact, the theory fails to account for the complex role of the semi-periphery, or how global (inter-country) and domestic (intra-country) environmental inequalities between regions are connected. To fill this gap, we rely on an environmentally extended multi-regional input-output (EEMRIO) model to provide empirical evidence for China's involvement in global (G-EUE) and domestic (D-EUE) ecologically unequal exchange from 1987 to 2017. While being a net exporter of energy to all income groups, we show that China is a net exporter of land, labour, and materials to the core, but a net importer of land, labour, and materials from the periphery and the semi-periphery. On the domestic level, we show that the wealthy East Coast zone is the only net importer of embodied energy and TiVA, while all other economic zones are net exporters of embodied energy to the East Coast zone. While China continues to be exploited by the core, it has fuelled its ascent in the world-system by creating its own peripheries from which it extracts natural resources, as well as by creating extractive peripheries within its borders. Our results suggest the need to move beyond a simple core-periphery dichotomy when studying the world ecological system: EUE arises through a multi-tiered hierarchy that depends on uneven biophysical flows between regions both domestically and globally. |
| Keywords: | Ecologically unequal exchange, China, Embodied trade flows, Environmentally extended multi-regional input-output analysis, Inter- and Intra-Country Inequality, International Trade, Structural Decomposition Analysis |
| JEL: | Q56 Q57 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:fmmpap:100-2024&r= |
| By: | Guichard, Lucas (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Machado, Joël (LISER) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the externalities arising from a bilateral asylum policy - the list of safe origin countries - relying on a tractable model. Using self-collected monthly data, we estimate that including one origin country on the safe list of a given destination decreases asylum applications from that origin to that destination by 29%. We use a counterfactual policy simulation to quantify the spillover effects occurring across origin and destination countries. Individuals from targeted origin countries move to alternative destinations. Individuals from untargeted origins divert from alternative destinations. The magnitude of the externalities depends on the size of the affected flows. |
| Keywords: | migration, asylum seekers, asylum policy, safe origin country, refugee |
| JEL: | F22 K37 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16935&r= |
| By: | Tjaden, Jasper; Heidland, Tobias |
| Abstract: | In 2015, German Chancellor Angela Merkel decided to allow over a million asylum seekers to cross the border into Germany. One key concern was that her decision would signal an open‐door policy to aspiring migrants worldwide – thus further increasing migration to Germany and making the country permanently more attractive to irregular and humanitarian migrants. This ‘pull‐effect’ hypothesis has been a mainstay of policy discussions ever since. With the continued global rise in forced displacement, not appearing welcoming to migrants has become a guiding principle for the asylum policy of many large receiving countries. In this article, we exploit the unique case study that Merkel's 2015 decision provides for answering the fundamental question of whether welcoming migration policies have sustained effects on migration towards destination countries. We analyze an extensive range of data on migration inflows, migration aspirations and online search interest between 2000 and 2020. The results reject the ‘pull effect’ hypothesis while reaffirming states’ capacity to adapt to changing contexts and regulate migration. |
| Keywords: | migration, policy, refugee, pull effect, Germany |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:294184&r= |
| By: | Bolz, Simon J.; Naumann, Fabrice; Richter, Philipp M. |
| Abstract: | Expanding on a general equilibrium model of offshoring, we analyze the effects of a unilateral emissions tax increase on the environment, income, and inequality. Heterogeneous firms allocate labor across production tasks and emissions abatement, while only the most productive can benefit from lower labor and/or emissions costs abroad and offshore. We find a non-monotonic effect on global emissions, which decline if the initial difference in emissions taxes is small. For a sufficiently large difference, global emissions rise, implying emissions leakage of more than 100%. The underlying driver is a global technique effect: While the emissions intensity of incumbent non-offshoring firms declines, the cleanest firms start offshoring. Moreover, offshoring firms become dirtier, induced by a reduction in the foreign effective emissions tax in general equilibrium. Implementing a BCA prevents emissions leakage, reduces income inequality in the reforming country, but raises inequality across countries. |
| Keywords: | Offshoring, Emissions leakage, Environmental policy, BCA, Heterogeneous firms, Income inequality |
| JEL: | F18 F12 F15 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tudcep:294834&r= |
| By: | Sylvain Leduc; Zheng Liu |
| Abstract: | We study the implications of trade uncertainty for reshoring, automation, and U.S. labor markets. Rising trade uncertainty creates incentive for firms to reduce exposures to foreign suppliers by moving production and distribution processes to domestic producers. However, we argue that reshoring does not necessarily bring jobs back to the home country or boost domestic wages, especially when firms have access to labor-substituting technologies such as automation. Automation improves labor productivity and facilitates reshoring, but it can also displace jobs. Furthermore, automation poses a threat that weakens the bargaining power of low-skilled workers in wage negotiations, depressing their wages and raising the skill premium and wage inequality. The model predictions are in line with industry-level empirical evidence. |
| Keywords: | offshoring; reshoring; automation; robots; uncertainty; unemployment; wages; productivity |
| JEL: | F41 E24 J64 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–05–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:98206&r= |
| By: | Michele Di Maio; Patricia Justino; Valerio Leone Sciabolazza; Cecilia Nardi |
| Abstract: | We show that the Russia-Ukraine-war-induced changes in the international price of wheat affected political violence in Asia. Using data from 13 countries and more than four million cell-level observations, we show that a higher wheat price increases political violence in areas that are more suitable to produce that crop. We interpret this evidence as consistent with a rapacity effect being at play: the higher value of agricultural output increases the incentive to violently appropriate it. Our result is robust to a number of falsification and robustness tests. |
| Keywords: | War, Commodity shocks, Trade, Political violence, Agricultural market performance, Asia |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2024-30&r= |
| By: | Raphael Auer; Mathieu Pedemonte; Raphael Schoenle |
| Abstract: | Is inflation (still) a global phenomenon? We study the international co-movement of inflation based on a dynamic factor model and in a sample spanning up to 56 countries during the 1960-2023 period. Over the entire period, a first global factor explains approximately 58% of the variation in headline inflation across all countries and over 72% in OECD economies. The explanatory power of global inflation is equally high in a shorter sample spanning the time since 2000. Core inflation is also remarkably global, with 53% of its variation attributable to a first global factor. The explanatory power of a second global factor is lower, except for select emerging economies. Variables such as a broad dollar index, the US federal funds rate, and a measure of commodity prices positively correlate with the first global factor. This global factor is also correlated with US inflation during the 70s, 80s, the GFC, and COVID. However, it lags these variables during the post-COVID period. Country-level integration in global value chains accounts for a significant proportion of the share of both local headline and core inflation dynamics explained by global factors. |
| Keywords: | globalization; inflation; Phillips curve; monetary policy; global value chain; international inflation synchronization |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 F02 F41 F42 F14 F62 |
| Date: | 2024–05–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:98253&r= |
| By: | Kimberly A. Clausing (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Mary E. Lovely (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | At the beginning of its history, the United States relied on tariffs--taxes on imported goods--as its major source of government revenue. That changed starting in the early 20th century, with the enactment of the federal income tax and the advent of a new consensus recognizing tariffs as regressive, burdening the working class while leaving untaxed much of the income accruing to the wealthy. At present, less than 2 percent of government revenue in high-income countries comes from import taxes. Today, however, the United States may be on the cusp of reverting to an antiquated approach to funding its government. Presidential candidate Donald Trump is proposing to reduce US reliance on income taxes while increasing our reliance on import tariffs. He proposes extending expiring tax cuts from 2017 and has also suggested possible new rounds of tax cuts. At the same time, he has proposed a ten percent "across- the -board" tariff and a 60 percent or more tariff on imports from China. Together, these policy steps would amount to regressive tax cuts, only partially paid for by regressive tax increases. The tariffs would reduce after-tax incomes by 3.5 percent for those in the bottom half of the income distribution and cost a typical household in the middle of the income distribution about $1, 700 in increased taxes each year. If executed, these steps would increase the distortions and burdens created by the rounds of tariffs levied during the first Trump administration (and sustained during the Biden administration), while inflicting massive collateral damage on the US economy. This Policy Brief leverages recent research to provide approximate calculations for the cost of the higher proposed tariffs to US consumers, considering the distribution of these costs across US households and the consequences for US federal revenues. In sum, Trump's tax proposals entail sharply regressive tax policy changes, shifting tax burdens away from the well-off and toward lower-income members of society while harming US workers and industries, inviting retaliation from trading partners, and worsening international relations. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb24-1&r= |
| By: | Andreas Haufler; Hayato Kato |
| Abstract: | The Global Minimum Tax (GMT) is applied only to firms above a certain size threshold. We set up a simple model of tax competition and profit shifting by heterogeneous multinational firms to evaluate the effects of this partial coverage of the GMT. A non-haven and a haven country are bound by the GMT rate for large multinationals, but can set tax rates for firms below the threshold non-cooperatively. We show that the introduction of the GMT with a moderate tax rate increases tax revenues in both the non-haven and the haven countries. Gradual increases in the GMT rate, however, trigger a sudden change in the tax competition equilibrium from a uniform to a split corporate tax rate, at which tax revenues in the non-haven country decline. In contrast, gradual increases in the coverage of the GMT never harm the non-haven country. We also discuss the quantitative effects of introducing a $15\%$ GMT rate in a calibrated version of our model. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.14302&r= |
| By: | Ignatenko, Anna (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | This paper documents price discrimination by transport companies, revealing their market power. Larger shipments of similar products sharing a container receive lower prices. A trade model with non-linear pricing of transportation rationalizes this with economies of scale and price discrimination, highlighting their distinct policy implications. To distinguish them, I test for the effect of competition on freight price variation specific to price discrimination. Using unexpected water level changes to instrument for competition in river transportation, I find increased competition causes steeper discounts for larger shipments. Thus, market power in transportation is less distortionary for larger firms gaining additional cost advantages. |
| Keywords: | price discrimination; quantity discounts; transportation; competition; economies of scale; mark-ups; market power |
| JEL: | D22 D43 F10 F12 F14 |
| Date: | 2024–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2024_006&r= |
| By: | Mary Amiti; Sebastian Heise |
| Abstract: | The increasing dominance of large firms in the United States has raised concerns about pricing power in the product market. The worry is that large firms, facing fewer competitors, could increase their markups over marginal costs without fear of losing market share. In a recently published paper, we show that although sales of domestic firms have become more concentrated in the manufacturing sector, this development has been accompanied by the entry and growth of foreign firms. Import competition has lowered U.S. producers’ share of the U.S. market and put smaller, less efficient domestic firms out of business. Overall, market concentration in manufacturing was stable in recent decades, though import penetration has greatly altered the makeup of the U.S. manufacturing sector. |
| Keywords: | concentration; markups; import competition |
| JEL: | E2 F0 |
| Date: | 2024–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:98182&r= |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the global economic consequence of the Russia-Ukraine war over a four-month period from December 2021 to March 2022. Russia invaded Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022. The study used the Pearson correlation and two-stage least square regression methods to assess the impact of Russian invasion of Ukraine on the global economy. It was observed that stock prices plunged on the day of the invasion. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic jointly led to a significant increase in the world price of food and crude oil. The rise in the world food price index after the invasion was driven by a significant increase in the price of dairy and oils. The rise in inflation in Russia and Ukraine after the invasion was followed by a rise in inflation in countries that imposed severe sanctions on Russia, and in countries that were not involved in the conflict in any way. |
| Keywords: | Russia, Ukraine, War, Inflation, Crisis |
| JEL: | E65 E66 O5 O52 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120781&r= |
| By: | Eduardo Andrade; Otaviano Canuto |
| Abstract: | Most high-income countries will experience declines in their populations over the next few decades. Some negative consequences of aging are on the horizon: greater fiscal imbalances and risks of economic stagnation. Immigration may by a way for those countries to mitigate the tendency. On the source side of immigration flows, brain drain is a risk. The policy paper presents the case of Japan, a nation that has grappled with the consequences of a declining and aging population for several years, as an example for other countries destined to confront similar circumstances in the forthcoming decades. Population aging is a strong trend in place. Some negative consequences of aging are on the horizon: greater fiscal imbalances and the risk of economic stagnation. Most high-income countries will experience a decline in their populations over the next few decades, and immigration is a way to offset this tendency. On the source side of immigration flows, ‘brain drain’ is a risk. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaper:pp-0324&r= |
| By: | Bibi, Samuele; Valdecantos, Sebastián |
| Abstract: | In the period 2000-2019, Peru enjoyed sustained GDP growth and a long period of macroeconomic stability; as a result, poverty was reduced markedly in comparison to the 1980s and early 1990s, when the country faced severe recessions and hyperinflation. This positive economic performance coincided with the implementation of a mainstream macroeconomic framework which, alongside favourable external conditions, allowed for continuous external financing of current account deficits, mainly through foreign direct investment (FDI). Against the background of current debates regarding the resurgence of debt crises and the advocacy of FDI as a way to avoid such crises, this article uses balance of payments and international investment position statistics to assess whether Peru's acquired macroeconomic stability can be deemed sustainable. Drawing on the contributions of the Latin American structuralist school and more recent analyses that have raised concerns, the article shows that Peru's external position has taken on a Ponzi profile, casting doubt on the idea that FDI is a superior way of external financing compared to external debt. It concludes with a discussion of the social and environmental implications of Peru's widely praised macroeconomic framework, highlighting the limits that peripheral economies face when their growth relies excessively on external financing. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomía; Estabilidad Económica; Inversiones Extranjeras; Perú; |
| Date: | 2023–09–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:4078&r= |
| By: | GRASSANO Nicola; NAPOLITANO Lorenzo (European Commission - JRC); M'BAREK Robert (European Commission - JRC); RODRIGUEZ CEREZO Emilio (European Commission - JRC); LASARTE LOPEZ Jesus (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | In this document, we focus on innovation in biotechnologies (biotech), as captured by patented invention worldwide. To this aim, we focus on international patents filed at multiple offices, at least one of which belonging to the IP5 consortium (see methodological box for more details). Moreover, we rely on expert knowledge collected by the OECD to select the inventions connected to biotech. The analysis aims to produce a bird’s eye view on the evolution of patenting in this technological area over time and its relevance across the geographical and technological dimensions. The key points emerging from this analysis are: Biotech patents represent around 5% of all the IP5 patents in the period 2001-2019. The US are by far the country with the highest share of biotech patents, the EU is lagging behind (with an increasing gap with the US) , while China seem to have started catching Up with the EU; The majority of the biotech patents are withe (industrials) and red (medical) biotechnologies. Japanese, Chinese, and EU applicants show relatively high specialization in white biotech patents, while UK and US applicants are relatively specialized in horizontal and red biotech patents. Germany and France have the highest number of biotech patent applicants in the EU, accounting for slightly over 50% of all EU biotech patents; The single biotechnology most patented is C12Q 1/66, "Measuring or testing processes involving luciferase", which alone represents 6.4% of all the biotech patents analysed; Preliminary analysis suggests that the competition among regions in biotech patents revolves around the number of patents in each of the main biotechnological domains, rather than the different types of biotechnologies patented. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc137266&r= |
| By: | Michael Reiterer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | While Russia’s war of aggression on Ukraine is shaking the liberal international order, the Global South is using the occasion to demand overdue reforms and complaining about the neglect of its acute structural problems. Alternative organisations, such as BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and various new development banks, are stepping out of the shadows. At the same time, efforts to achieve more economic security by making supply, production and value chains more resilient are also offering a chance for change – if well steered – to prevent industrial policy at home from turning into protectionism abroad. |
| Keywords: | BRICS, Global South, Economic Security, Indo-Pacific, managing change |
| JEL: | F13 F53 F55 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:75&r= |
| By: | Alizade, Jeyhun (WZB Berlin Social Science Center) |
| Abstract: | Concern that immigration worsens crime problems is prevalent across Western publics. How does it shape electoral politics? Prior research asserted a growing left-right divide in immigration attitudes and voting behavior due to educational realignment. In contrast, I argue that leftist voters are more conservative on immigrant crime than leftist parties, which can drive highly-educated progressives (so-called `cosmopolitans') to right-wing parties. I demonstrate this voter-party mismatch using survey data from 14 Western European countries linked with expert ratings of party positions. A panel survey from Germany further shows that concern about immigrant crime increases vote intention for the center right among voters of the Greens – the party of leftist cosmopolitans. A conjoint experiment among German voters replicates this defection effect and shows that it persists even if the center right stigmatizes immigrants or adopts conservative socio-cultural issue positions. Repercussions of immigration can in fact drive leftist cosmopolitans to the right. |
| Date: | 2024–04–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:h967e&r= |
| By: | Boingotlo Gasealahwe; Konstantin Makrelov; Shanthessa Ragavaloo |
| Abstract: | South Africa has a high carbon intensity and a very low effective carbon price. This exposes the country to adverse economic shocks from carbon border adjustment mechanisms (CBAM) and changing consumer sentiments. Current impact assessments of the European Unions CBAM suggest small initial impacts, but these are likely to increase as (1) more goods and services become subject to the adjustment, (2) more countries implement such mechanisms, and (3) consumer choices shift away from carbon- intensive products. South Africa needs a higher, more predictable, and effective carbon price to drive the green transition and avoid revenue leakage. The additional government revenues can promote clean investment and reduce some of the negative impacts associated with carbon taxation. Economic and financial frictions to transitioning should be reduced by using a combination of price and non-price instruments. The focus of policy should be on how to position South Africa as a green production destination relative to other countries and consequently, reduce the exposure to CBAMs and changing consumer sentiments. |
| Date: | 2024–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbz:oboens:11056&r= |
| By: | Renato Molina; Juan Carlos Villaseñor-Derbez; Gavin McDonald; Grant McDermott |
| Abstract: | Maritime transport has been historically susceptible to piracy. While broad assessments suggest the impact of modern piracy causes large economic losses, the literature lacks quantification of the magnitude of the costs and the behavioral responses that underpin them. Here, we combine theory and a unique geospatial dataset combining more than 25 million shipping voyages and thousands of pirate encounters across the globe to find that pirate encounters lead to significant and costly avoidance measures. Shippers modify their path along a route to avoid locations with known pirate encounters. This increases voyage distance and duration, which lead to significant increases in fuel and labor costs estimated to be over US$1.5 billion/year. Additionally, emission of CO2, NOx, and SOx due to increased fuel consumption results in environmental damages valued at US$5.1 billion per year. Together, our results provide the first global estimates linking the presence of pirates to individual behaviour and aggregate transportation cost, as well as its environmental impact, with major implications for the shipping industry and maritime security at a global scale. |
| Keywords: | piracy, shipping, avoidance |
| JEL: | Q50 F50 R40 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11077&r= |
| By: | Maschke, Andreas |
| Abstract: | This paper uses quantitative and qualitative text analysis methods to study the discourse surrounding Germany's current account surplus across seven national newspapers. The results of the analysis highlight that the German surpluses are a contested discursive subject across the different newspapers. From this result, the overall balanced reporting in the business paper Handelsblatt as well as the critical stance of the important broadsheet Süddeutsche Zeitung stand out. That newspapers publish comparatively few articles openly defending the German surpluses after 2014 is likewise a surprising finding. The paper discusses and situates these results within the recent growth model literature in comparative political economy. |
| Abstract: | Der vorliegende Beitrag untersucht den Diskurs über Deutschlands Leistungsbilanzüberschuss in sieben überregionalen Zeitungen mit Methoden der quantitativen und qualitativen Textanalyse. Die Ergebnisse der Analyse zeigen, dass die deutschen Überschüsse in den verschiedenen Zeitungen ein kontrovers diskutiertes Thema sind. Insbesondere die insgesamt ausgewogene Berichterstattung der Wirtschaftszeitung Handelsblatt und die kritische Haltung des wichtigen Qualitätsblatts Süddeutsche Zeitung stechen aus diesem Ergebnis hervor. Überraschend ist auch, dass die Zeitungen nach 2014 relativ wenige Artikel veröffentlichen, die die deutschen Überschüsse offen verteidigen. Der Beitrag diskutiert diesen Befund und ordnet ihn in die aktuelle Literatur zu Wachstumsmodellen in der Vergleichenden Politischen Ökonomie ein. |
| Keywords: | discourse, Germany, growth, media, political economy, Diskurs, Deutschland, Medien, Politische Ökonomie, Wachstum |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mpifgd:294839&r= |