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on International Trade |
| By: | Evious Zgovu; Oliver Morrissey |
| Abstract: | This paper provides estimates of the potential for EAC member countries to increase exports to the rest of Africa under AfCFTA, assuming the other countries reduce tariffs on imports from the EAC. We adopt a simple approach to identify the markets (countries) and products most likely to benefit and consider only growth of existing imports from the EAC; the assumption is that EAC have evident export capacity in such products and markets, and that these products are unlikely to be excluded from liberalisation by African importing countries. Results suggest that the EAC could expand exports overall by 10-15%, largely concentrated in relatively close countries and agriculture and resource-based products. Relatively distant markets in North and West Africa do offer potential to EAC countries except Rwanda (concentrated on DRC) and Tanzania (concentrated on Southern Africa). These estimates are complemented with analysis of the welfare effects on Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda of eliminating tariffs on imports from the rest of Africa – overall imports increase by around 10% and, as these tend not to displace intra-EAC trade, the consumption gains from lower prices deliver a positive welfare effect (negligible relative to GDP). The EAC can anticipate moderate gains from AfCFTA and, by identifying the markets and products most likely to be affected, the study provides a guide to policymakers in EAC countries on sectors to target in supporting export growth within Africa. |
| Keywords: | East African Community (EAC), African Free Trade (AfCFTA), Tariff Reductions, intra-African exports |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notcre:24/03&r=int |
| By: | Christine Arriola; Mattia Cai; Przemyslaw Kowalski; Sébastien Miroudot; Frank van Tongeren |
| Abstract: | Supply chain disruptions, related to natural events or geopolitical tensions, have in recent years prompted policy makers to identify potential vulnerabilities related to critical trade dependencies. These are commercial links that could potentially impose significant economic or societal harm, be a source of coercion, a risk to national security, or disrupt strategic activities. Using three complementary methodologies — detailed trade data analysis, input-output data techniques, and computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling — this paper examines the nature and evolution of trade dependencies between the OECD countries and major non-OECD economies (MNOE). It shows that global production has become increasingly concentrated at the product level, with China representing 15% of import dependencies in strategic products for OECD countries in 2020-21 compared to 4% in 1997-99. The methodologies used in this paper unanimously demonstrate a high degree of trade interdependency between OECD and MNOE countries. The current debate on “de-risking” international trade, therefore, needs to carefully consider the possible costs and benefits of different policy choices. |
| Keywords: | Computable equilibrium analysis, Global supply chains, Global value chains, Input-output analysis, International trade, Market concentration, Supply concentration |
| JEL: | C67 F14 F15 F6 C68 |
| Date: | 2024–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:280-en&r=int |
| By: | Hongyong Zhang; Wenyin Cheng; Tao Liang; Bo Meng |
| Abstract: | Industrial subsidies are at the center of the recent political and economic debate. This paper examines the impacts of subsidies along domestic value chains on the export performance of Chinese firms. Using firm-level subsidy data and inter-provincial input-output tables, we measure direct subsidies and indirect subsidies in upstream industries. Our findings reveal several vital points: (1) Direct subsidies significantly enhance Chinese firms' export participation and volume. These subsidies are positively associated with firm investment and R&D expenditure. (2) Surprisingly, upstream indirect subsidies-particularly those from 1st tier upstream industries-have even larger effects on Chinese exports than direct subsidies. These upstream subsidies contribute significantly to export growth. (3) Both domestic firms and foreign-invested enterprises benefit from direct subsidies, but the effect of upstream subsidies varies by ownership. (4) Both direct and indirect subsidies are associated with higher export prices and product quality, leading to a lower quality-adjusted price. These export growth and quality upgrading are driven by direct subsidies through increased investment and R&D, and indirect subsidies through intermediate inputs. These results suggest that government support may promote quality upgrading and enhance the global competitiveness of Chinese exports. This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on government subsidy and industrial policy by shedding light on the intricate relationship between subsidies and exports. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcr:wpaper:e205&r=int |
| By: | Sunde, Tafirenyika |
| Abstract: | The current study investigates the impact of foreign direct investment on the growth of Namibia’s economy from 1990 to 2020 using the ARDL cointegration method. The results reveal that FDI, the interactive variable of FDI and trade openness, and other macroeconomic variables such as domestic investment, overnment consumption expenditure, human capital, a proxy for economic stability, and return on investment are responsible for Namibia’s economic growth. The article confirms the FDI-led growth and the Bhagwati hypotheses for Namibia as shown by the FDI and the interactive variable of FDI and trade openness, respectively. To reap the full benefits of FDI on economic growth in Namibia, the government must focus on improving physical infrastructure and the quality of human resources. It should also facilitate the development of an entrepreneurship culture, create a stable macroeconomic environment, and improve conditions for productive investments to accelerate economic growth and development. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth; foreign direct investment; trade openness; human capital; return on investment; government consumption expenditure cointegration; cointegration; inflation; ARDL |
| JEL: | E0 E01 F1 F14 |
| Date: | 2022–12–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:117366&r=int |
| By: | Sebastian Heise; Justin R. Pierce; Georg Schaur; Peter K. Schott |
| Abstract: | We show that reducing the probability of a trade war promotes long-term importer-exporter relationships that ensure provision of high-quality inputs via incentive premia. Empirically, we introduce a method for distinguishing between these long-term relationships--which the literature has termed "Japanese" due to their introduction by Japanese firms--from spot-market relationships in customs data. We show that the use of "Japanese" relationships varies intuitively across trading partners and products and find that the use of such relationships increases after a reduction in the possibility of a trade war. Extending the standard general equilibrium trade model to encompass potential trade wars and relational contracts, we estimate that eliminating "Japanese" procurement reduces welfare about a third as much as moving to autarky. |
| Keywords: | Supply chain; Uncertainty; Trade war; Procurement |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 F23 |
| Date: | 2024–04–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1389&r=int |
| By: | Robert Gold; Julian Hinz; Michele Valsecchi |
| Abstract: | Do economic sanctions affect internal support of sanctioned countries’ governments? To answer this question, we focus on the sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 and identify their effect on voting behavior in both presidential and parliamentary elections. On the economic side, the sanctions significantly hurt Russia’s foreign trade — with regional variance. We use trade losses caused by the sanctions as measure for regional sanctions exposure. For identification, we rely on a structural gravity model that allows us to compare observed trade flows to counterfactual flows in the absence of sanctions. Difference-in-differences estimations reveal that regime support significantly increases in response to the sanctions, at the expense of voting support of Communist parties. For the average Russian district, sanctions exposure increases the vote share gained by President Putin and his party by 13 percent. Event studies and placebo estimations confirm the validity of our results. |
| Keywords: | economic sanctions, voting behaviour, gravity estimation, rally-around-the-flag |
| JEL: | F12 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11033&r=int |
| By: | Josina Solomons |
| Abstract: | Since the 200809 global financial crisis (GFC), the rate of growth of global trade has been slowing. Global trade is likely to remain under pressure over the short to medium term, but a broad reversal of globalisation seems less likely. Trade and global value chains could become more resilient through greater diversification of suppliers as well as some degree of reshoring or near-shoring. South Africa has been slow in integrating into global value chains. However, an improved business operating environment, effective industrial policies and the development of stronger regional trade ties could help improve the countrys global integration. |
| Date: | 2023–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbz:oboens:11049&r=int |
| By: | Patrick Arni; Peter H. Egger; Katharina Erhardt; Matthias Gubler; Philip Sauré |
| Abstract: | This paper identifies the causal effects of trade shocks on worker outcomes. We exploit a unique setting based on three pillars: (i) a large, unanticipated appreciation of the Swiss franc in 2015, (ii) detailed data with firm-level exposure to trade via output markets (both domestic and foreign) and imported inputs (distinguished by their foreign labor content), which we match to (iii) worker-level panel data with rich information on labor-market outcomes. We find that increased competition in output markets induces negative effects on earnings for workers of affected firms. Conversely, a price drop of foreign inputs generates positive effects for workers of importing firms, but less so the higher the labor content of these imported inputs. All these patterns are consistent with a parsimonious model of task-based production. Moreover, positive and negative earnings effects are especially strong for workers in the lower tail of the within-firm wage distribution and, in particular, for workers who change their employer, pointing at involuntary (voluntary) job separations from firms that are negatively (positively) affected by the exchange rate appreciation. |
| Keywords: | trade and labor, exchange rate shock, matched employer-employee data |
| JEL: | F14 F16 J46 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11041&r=int |
| By: | PATELLI Aurelio; MAZZILLI Dario; SBARDELLA Angelica; TACCHELLA Andrea; PIETRONERO Luciano |
| Abstract: | Developing a comprehensive international trade database is crucial for economic analysis, as trade activities are important drivers for the competitiveness and dynamism of an economy’s productive structure. At present, import-export data are available from the COMTRADE database, maintained by the United Nations on the basis of global customs reports. However, often differences between the information reported between importer and exporter declarations arise, due to factors such as transport costs or unharmonised reporting systems. The main goal of this project is to reconcile trade values, quantities, and unit values with state-of-the-art techniques, and provide a uniform international trade dataset at the product level for each country. Furthermore, newly reconciled features are made available, namely the product Quantities, typically expressed in Kilograms or in the number of items, and the Unit Values, corresponding to the value per unit of quantity of the products. The new features are analyzed in detail, with Unit Value statistics showing unexpected behaviour and power-law price distributions frequently observed. The presence of fat tails in the distribution of export unit values may thus question the possibility of defining the statistical moments of prices, such as the mean or the variance, for international trade. In this report, we integrate Economic Complexity analysis with the literature on Unit Values and propose a possible connection with complexity measures. In fact, prices can be used to redesign the empirical bipartite trade networks connecting countries to the products they export competitively which are an essential tool in Economic Complexity studies. Constructing unit value matrices and using them as input for economic complexity metrics allow us to obtain more accurate GDP forecasting and thus to inform policy on the growth potential of single economies. Differently from traditional international trade theory that overlooks possible differences in the quality of the goods produced by different countries, more recently a large literature has explored the role of prices in the global patterns of bilateral trade, especially as proxies of production and export quality, building on the work of Linder (Linder, 1961) who studied the propensity of higher income countries for high-quality products, both in terms of demand and supply, and argued that exchanges are more likely to happen between countries with similar income per capita levels. Relying on different general equilibrium and gravity models that include quality as a key determinant of the direction of international trade, this literature highlights large country differences in the quality of exported products (Schott, 2004, Hummels and Klenow, 2005). Further, using pricing analysis, we classify products into quality categories based on price-distance dynamics. For instance, a price increasing with the distance between the importer and the exporter is thus related to a market with high-quality products and competition on quality, while if the price decreases, it suggests that the product is in a price-competition market. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc136943&r=int |
| By: | Choi, Jangho (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Dawool (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Rhee, Jung-Kyun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Choi, Yoojeong (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 이 연구는 북한의 관세율표를 최초로 소개하고 분석한 것으로 북한의 관세 및 비관세제도를 분석하고 국제적인 기준과 비교하여 시사점을 도출했다는 점에서 선행연구와 차별점이 있다. 분석 결과 북한 관세율은 5.5%로 WTO 회원국 평균인 8.1%보다 낮아 산업 보호 기능과 관세 제정 조달이라는 기능을 수행하지 못하였으며, 대신 높은 비관세장벽이 산업을 보호하는 역할을 하였다. 향후 북한은 국제사회 편입을 위해 단계적으로 비관세장벽을 철폐하여야 하며, 그로 인한 무역 규제 약화의 공백을 막기 위해 관세율을 최소한 국제적인 수준까지 점진적으로 인상할 필요가 있다. 이 연구가 향후 남북한 통합 관세제도 수립에 바탕이 되는 기초자료가 되기를 바란다. This study comprehensively analyzes North Korea’s tariff and non-tariff regimes and suggests the direction of North Korea’s tariff and non-tariff regimes in the process of reform and opening up. The purpose of the study is to analyze North Korea’s tariff and non-tariff systems to reveal the direction of the North Korean authorities’ trade policy, the structure and characteristics of the legal and institutional framework, and to identify priority reforms for the country’s future integration into the international economy. This study differs from previous studies in that it is the first to quantitatively analyze North Korea’s tariff rates system. Chapter 2 examines the role of the legal system in North Korea and the history and purpose of the trade regime. North Korean authorities regulate tariff and non-tariff regimes through trade laws, customs laws, and tariff rate schedules. In North Korea, the guidance and policies of the Workers’Party take precedence over the law, but for the most part, the law governs the economy as a whole. North Korea’s customs law is similar to ours in that it aims to protect domestic industries, but it does not mention raising revenue through tariffs. In practice, however, North Korea’s tariff system appears to be used to raise revenue by absorbing foreign exchange held by private owners. One of the unique aspects of North Korea’s trade laws is that they are designed to ensure national security. This stems from the closed nature of the North Korean economy, which is designed to preventpolitical and economic influence from neighboring countries through trade, as well as the transmission of foreign cultures through imports and exports that could agitate the North Korean population and threaten the socialist system. Chapter 3 analyzes North Korea’s tariff rate structure and assesses its industrial protection and fiscal revenue effects. A key feature of North Korea’s tariffs is the low overall level of tariffs. The average nominal tariff rate was 5.5% and the average real tariff rate was only 4.6% based on the foreign exchange rate. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | North Korean economy; tariffs; North Korean trade; North Korean tariff rates; North Korean economy |
| Date: | 2023–12–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2023_011&r=int |
| By: | Rodolfo G. Campos; Benedikt Heid; Jacopo Timini |
| Abstract: | The Cold War was the defining episode of geopolitical fragmentation in the twentieth century. Trade between East and West across the Iron Curtain (a symbolical and physical barrier dividing Europe into two distinct areas) was restricted, but the severity of these restrictions varied over time. We quantify the trade and welfare effects of the Iron Curtain and show how the difficulty of trading across the Iron Curtain fluctuated throughout the Cold War. Using a novel dataset on trade between the two economic blocs and a quantitative trade model, we find that while the Iron Curtain at its height represented a tariff equivalent of 48% in 1951, trade between East and West gradually became easier until the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. Despite the easing of trade restrictions, we estimate that the Iron Curtain roughly halved East-West trade flows and caused substantial welfare losses in the Eastern bloc countries that persisted until the end of the Cold War. Conversely, the Iron Curtain led to an increase in intra-bloc trade, especially in the Eastern bloc, which outpaced the integration of Western Europe in the run-up to the formation of the European Union. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.03508&r=int |
| By: | MASSINI Silvia; PISCITELLO Lucia; SHEVTSOVA Yevgeniya (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Recent empirical studies show that firms that simultaneously engage in export/import and internal R&D activities experience stronger productivity benefits with respect to their domestically oriented counterparts. This analysis extends the scope of these studies to explore complementary effects on productivity of engaging in all three activities (i.e. import, export and internal R&D) simultaneously in the context of emerging market firms. The results indicate that emerging markets firms benefit from complementarities stemming from the assimilation and integration of knowledge from external sources (import and export) with internal knowledge (own R&D investment). The effect is more pronounced for private enterprises, especially when they trade with partners from advanced markets. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc136621&r=int |
| By: | BIANCARDI Daniele (European Commission - JRC); MARTINEZ CILLERO Maria (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | This note presents the latest trends in the investment behaviour of multinational enterprises focusing on non-EU (foreign) investors. It looks at merger and acquisition (M&A) deals and other equity investments of at least 10% of capital of the target company in the EU, as well as at greenfield projects. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc135590&r=int |
| By: | Otaviano Canuto |
| Abstract: | Multiple shocks faced by the global economy over the past three years have apparently shaken the conventional wisdom on gains from economic integration, and have sparked widespread calls for protectionist and nationalist policies. Is there already evidence of some ‘deglobalization’, or do the factors that underlie globalization remain strong enough despite the shocks? So far, there are no signs of an overall reversal in the long-term trend of greater global trade integration. However, a partial realignment seems to be underway, reflecting the more durable side of those recent shocks. This is probably leading to higher costs and prices on the margin, in the case of realignments done to overcome shocks of a geopolitical nature. The answer seems to be that global trade has been resilient, although it is undergoing some realignment. |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb44-23&r=int |
| By: | Mina Baliamoune |
| Abstract: | Greater female participation in the labor market and in international trade have been recognized as important drivers for economic growth and essential targets in the context of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, achieving both targets simultaneously will be difficult, if not impossible, in most Middle East and North African (MENA) countries without additional policies to eliminate the remarkably high levels of gender inequality in the labor market. In such countries, women are either excluded from the gains from trade or bear most of the burden of adjustment to greater integration in the global economy. Policymakers should recognize the impacts of greater integration into global trade on women’s labor-market outcomes, and should implement resolute policy measures to alleviate (if not eliminate) these impacts. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb06-24&r=int |
| By: | Andrés César (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET); Guillermo Falcone (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET) |
| Abstract: | We study the causal impact of export growth on Chilean local economic development during 2000–2006 by exploiting spatial and temporal variations in local exposure stemming from the interaction of past differences in industry specialization across local labor markets and the evolution of tariffs cuts and exports across industries. We find that growing exports implied a significant reduction in labor informality and labor income gains in more exposed local markets, driven by job creation and wage growth in the formal sector. These effects concentrate on senior skilled workers. Exposed locations also exhibit a greater relative decline in the poverty rate. |
| JEL: | F14 F16 J23 J31 O17 Q02 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0329&r=int |
| By: | Hung Tran |
| Abstract: | Heightened geopolitical rivalry has greatly complicated the challenges facing the Global South. Countries identifying with the Global South now have to deal with the long-standing problem of promoting changes in the current international political and economic system to better serve their development needs, while navigating the geopolitically driven fragmentation of trade and investment flows. Moreover, the strategic approaches that could be adopted to deal with those challenges are influenced by the vague definition of the ‘Global South’ itself. Further complicating the picture is the fact that China and Russia have played very ambiguous roles—siding with developing countries in the desire for change, but representing one side of the geopolitical competition for global influence. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb07-24&r=int |
| By: | Parag Mahajan; Nicolas Morales; Kevin Shih; Mingyu Chen; Agostina Brinatti |
| Abstract: | We study how random variation in the availability of highly educated, foreign-born workers impacts firm performance and recruitment behavior. We combine two rich data sources: 1) administrative employer-employee matched data from the US Census Bureau; and 2) firm level information on the first large-scale H-1B visa lottery in 2007. Using an event-study approach, we find that lottery wins lead to increases in firm hiring of college-educated, immigrant labor along with increases in scale and survival. These effects are stronger for small, skill-intensive, and high-productivity firms that participate in the lottery. We do not find evidence for displacement of native-born, college-educated workers at the firm level, on net. However, this result masks dynamics among more specific subgroups of incumbents that we further elucidate. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, firm dynamics, productivity, H-1B visa, high-skilled migration |
| JEL: | F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:24-19&r=int |
| By: | Dias, Lucas Cardoso Corrêa; Cícero, Vinicius Curti |
| Abstract: | The growing demand for ejiao, a traditional Chinese medicine product derived from donkey hides, has sparked a global trade that profoundly impacts donkey populations and local economies in low and middle-income countries. In response to the pressing issue of burgeoning populations of stray and abandoned donkeys, Brazil implemented regulatory measures governing the export of these animals to China in 2017. This paper examines the intricate relationship between regulation of a natural resource-based contestable market -- in which property rights are not well-defined -- and local crime rates, focusing on the donkey hide trade in Brazil. Employing a quasi-experimental research design, we leverage the timing of the regulatory measures alongside variations in donkey occurrences per inhabitant across Brazilian municipalities to provide compelling evidence that the surge in ejiao demand has led to an increase in crime and violence within Brazil. These findings underscore the critical importance of nuanced market regulation to mitigate potential social costs in markets lacking well-defined property rights. Furthermore, they highlight the urgent need for robust monitoring and enforcement frameworks to address pressing issues such as the predatory exploitation of donkey populations on a global scale. |
| Date: | 2024–03–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:qreum&r=int |
| By: | Park, Ihn-Hwi (Ewha Womans University); Choi, Yong Sub (SUN MOON University); Lee, Hyo Won (INCHEON NATIONAL UNIVERSITY); Lee, Wang Hwi (Ajou University); Jeong, Hanbeom (Korea National Defense University); Jung, Sung Chul (MYONGJI University); Choi, Kyong Jun (KONKUK University) |
| Abstract: | 본 연구는 과거 영국과 미국이 주도했던 국제질서 변화 분석을 통해 미중간 패권국가 지위 변동 및 국제질서 변화 가능성을 전망했다. 무역, 금융, 군사력, 다자주의 등 4개 영역에 대한 연구 결과, 미래에 중국이 미국을 대체하여 패권국이 되거나 혹은 미국보다 더 큰 영향력을 행사할 가능성은 현재로서는 매우 희박해 보인다. 무역의 경우 많은 국가들이 자유주의 질서하에서 이익 극대화를 추구하고 있으며, 금융 영역에서도 중국은 글로벌 기축통화 지위를 위한 여건을 아직 갖추지 못했거나 나아가서 자체적으로 거부하고 있다. 군사력은 경제력, 운용 능력, 조직력, 해외기지 운용 역량, 첨단기술 등 여러 요소들의 총합인데, 총력 기준으로 중국은 미국에 비해 상당히 뒤처져 있다. 다만 다자주의의 경우 다양한 구심력을 중심으로 국제질서가 재편되는 과정에서, 미국과 중국 간 자국 중심의 다자주의 국제질서 구축전이 치열해질 전망이다. (There has been extensive research on the possibility of the change of the hegemonic leadership between the U.S. and China. When we take a look back the history of the modern international relations, we can recognize that there have been specific leader countries who played leadership roles within each international structural stage. This means the previous experience of the leadership change between the U.K. and the U.S. should tell us some meaningful lessons to prospect the possibility of the leadership change between the U.S. and China. The research starts from this research question. Simply speaking, it is impossible for China to play the role of the U.S. in the areas of ① trade, ② global finance, ③ military security, and ④ multilateralism. Firstly in trade, most of the nations in the current international society pursue to maximize there national interests with the current liberal international trade order. Most of the nations never understand China should play a role to initiate the future international trade order in terms of value, institutions, leadership, and followership even with the many structural problems of the current trade order. Secondly, China, in particular, has not prepared a global financial leadership in the perspective of ‘gold-standard system’ which is one of the most critical preconditions for the global financial leadership. It is also interesting to know that the total volume of the US dollar in the global financial market has been smaller than before, and the same time the portion of the Euro and the Yen got larger, not the Chinese currency. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | International politics; political economy; US-China hegemony; trade; finance; security |
| Date: | 2024–04–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2023_029&r=int |
| By: | Makoto HASEGAWA; Michi KAKEBAYASHI |
| Abstract: | Multinational corporations repatriate foreign profits through dividends, royalties, and interest paid by foreign affiliates to their parent firms. International tax rules concerning how to tax repatriated foreign earnings influence decisions on profit repatriation. In 2009, Japan introduced a foreign dividend exemption system (so-called territorial tax system) that exempted dividends received by Japanese firms from their foreign affiliates from home-country taxation. This paper examines the effects of this tax reform on profit repatriation through dividends, royalties, and interest. The enactment of the foreign dividend exemption system decreased the effective tax rate on foreign income repatriated through dividends on average by 6.8 percentage points in 2009. We find that in response to this tax rate reduction, Japanese-owned foreign affiliates increased dividend payments, but did not change either royalty or interest payments. As a result, these affiliates increased the total payments to their Japanese parents. |
| Keywords: | International taxation; Multinational corporations; Profit repatriation; Foreign dividend exemption; Worldwide tax system; Territorial tax system |
| JEL: | H25 H26 F23 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kue:epaper:e-20-004-v2&r=int |
| By: | Francesco Lissoni (BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Ernest Miguelez (BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Research on international migration and innovation relies heavily on inventor and patent data, with "migrant inventors" attracting a great deal of attention, especially for what concerns their role in easing the international transfer of knowledge. This hides the fact that many of them move to their host country before starting their inventive career or even before completing their education. We discuss the conceptual and practical difficulties that stand in the way of investigating other likely channels of influence of inventor's migration on innovation, namely the easing of skill shortages and the increase of variety in inventive teams, firms, and location. |
| Date: | 2024–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04513336&r=int |
| By: | Guillouët, Louise; Khandelwal, Amit K.; Macchiavello, Rocco; Malhotra, Madhav; Teachout, Matthieu |
| Abstract: | We study communication frictions within multinationals (MNCs), hypothesizing that language barriers reduce management knowledge transfers within the organization. A distinct feature of such MNCs is a three-tier hierarchy: foreign managers (FMs) supervise domestic managers (DMs) who supervise production workers. Tailored surveys from our setting – MNCs in Myanmar – reveal that language barriers impede interactions between FMs and DMs. A first experimental protocol offers DMs free English courses and confirms that lowering communications costs increases their interactions with FMs. A second experimental protocol that asks human-resource managers at domestic firms to rate hypothetical resumes reveals that multinational experience and, specifically, DM-FM interactions are valued in the domestic labor market. Together, these results suggest that reducing language barriers can improve transfers of management knowledge, an interpretation supported by improvements in soft skills among treatment DMs in the first experiment. A model in which communication within MNCs is non-contractible – a realistic feature of workplace life – reveals that the experimental results are consistent with underinvestment in language training and provide a rationale for policy intervention. |
| Keywords: | FDI; multinationals; knowledge transfers; language barriers; management |
| JEL: | F00 F23 L20 |
| Date: | 2024–04–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122568&r=int |
| By: | Cormier, Ben; Heinzel, Mirko; Reinsberg, Bernhard |
| Abstract: | Informal groupings like the G7 aim to address global development challenges but lack the administrative and budgetary capacity to drive change directly. Instead, the G7 seeks to catalyze international action that reflects its priorities. For example, the G7 attempts to set the international development agenda by publishing annual communiqués with actionable commitments designed to influence the behavior of G7 donor countries, non-G7 donor countries, and international organizations. But questions about the G7’s ultimate impact persist, as critics contend the informal G7 can do little more than pay lip service to development challenges. We provide empirical evidence that the G7 shapes international development in two ways. First, when the G7 emphasizes a policy area in its annual communiqués, donors allocate more aid to that policy area. Second, when the G7 highlights a policy area in its annual communiqués, donors establish more trust funds in that policy area. This suggests the G7 serves simultaneous coordination and orchestration roles in international development: it coordinates its member states’ aid and orchestrates non-G7 bilateral and multilateral aid. The study’s theory, approach, and findings can inform further research on whether and how informal organizations ultimately affect states, formal international organizations, international cooperation, and global governance. |
| JEL: | L81 |
| Date: | 2024–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122594&r=int |
| By: | Fasani, Francesco (University of Milan); Mazza, Jacopo (Utrecht University) |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the literature on the Covid-19 effects on workers and labor markets by focusing on the experience of migrant key workers in EU countries. Our analysis, based on survey data on more than 3 million workers, explores three main aspects. First, we document the over-representation of migrant workers in key occupations, particularly in low-qualified roles. Second, we examine the selection into key occupations. According to our estimates, women are more likely to be key workers, the relationship with education is V-shaped, and EU and Extra EU migrants are, respectively, 12 and 15 percent more likely to be key workers than comparable natives. Finally, we estimate the impact of Covid-19 on the labor market, showing that migrant key workers had to extend their working hours during the pandemic and, nevertheless, faced a 2-3 times higher probability of being laid off relative to natives. Our findings imply that migrant workers played a crucial role in the response to the pandemic, but endured a harsher fate than native workers. |
| Keywords: | migrant workers, COVID-19, essential occupations |
| JEL: | F22 J61 K37 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16884&r=int |
| By: | Chung, Sunghoon |
| Abstract: | Among multinational manufacturers, firms engaged in reshoring are typically smaller, laborintensive, less productive, and less experienced in overseas production. Moreover, despite receiving sizable government subsidies, the domestic investments by reshorers yield smaller employment impacts compared to similar-sized domesticonly counterparts. Therefore, incentivizing domestic investment for all firms, irrespective of their repatriation, would be more effective in meeting objectives such as stabilizing supply chains, maintaining domestic manufacturing competitiveness, and boosting employment. The solution to the challenges posed by the excessive globalization of production lies in localizing production activities rather than the firms themselves. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kdifoc:289623&r=int |
| By: | Riccardo Pozzo (Università degli Studi di Roma Tor Vergata [Roma] = University of Rome Tor Vergata); Ekrame Boubtane (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, INED - Institut national d'études démographiques, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Hippolyte D’albis (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Raffaella Greco Tonegutti (Belgian Development Agency); Claudio Paravati (Confronti Study Center on Migration, Religions, Politics, and Society,) |
| Abstract: | Migration and migration-related diversity are likely to remain key topics of the European policy and research agenda for the foreseeable future. This asks for a rethinking of the research agenda on migration, from a strategic perspective as well as from a research perspective. The objective of this chapter is to suggest applications that are useful in shaping the next funding opportunities for migration research, and to provide roadmaps for the optimisation of research efforts in order to avoid overlapping and, where possible, to close the gaps in the global spectrum and national initiatives on migration. Questions such as How to benefit from and get access to available knowledge and expertise? How to promote the accumulation of knowledge and expertise? and How to address gaps in knowledge? have been at the heart of the Horizon 2020 CrossMigration research project and have led to the definition of its strategic research agenda . This chapter considers the need for a future agenda on migration studies, addressing methodological issues; what funding to focus on; how funding might be organised; who should be involved in funding (and procedures); and what prospects there are for the future. We will also propose three strategies to consider how an agenda might help provide towards: (1) keeping the road safe for achieving the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals in 2030, (2) contrasting current and future pandemic/epidemic disease, and (3) establishing a fruitful dialogue with the African scientific community. |
| Date: | 2022–06–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03688979&r=int |
| By: | Valentine Fays (UMONS (Soci&ter) and ULB (CEBRIG, DULBEA)); Benoît Mahy (UMONS (Soci&ter) and ULB (CEBRIG, DULBEA)); François Ryckx (ULB (CEBRIG, DULBEA),) |
| Abstract: | This article is the first to examine how 1st-generation migrants affect the employment of workers born in the host country according to their origin, distinguishing between natives and 2nd-generation migrants. To do so, we take advantage of access to a unique linked employer-employee dataset for the Belgian economy enabling us to test these relationships at a quite precise level of the labour market, i.e. the firm level. Fixed effect estimates, including a large number of covariates, suggest complementarity between the employment of 1st-generation migrants and workers born in Belgium (both natives and 2nd-generation migrants, respectively). Several sensitivity tests, considering different levels of aggregation, workers’ levels of education, migrants’ region of origin, workers’ occupations, and sectors corroborate this conclusion. |
| Keywords: | 1st and 2nd generation migrants, Substainability, Complementarity, Moderating factors |
| JEL: | J15 J24 J62 |
| Date: | 2024–04–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2024004&r=int |
| By: | António Afonso; José Alves; Sofia Monteiro |
| Abstract: | In this article, we study the effects of geopolitical risks and world uncertainty on time-varying fiscal and external sustainability coefficients. We use Schlicht’s (2021) methodology to estimate time-varying fiscal and external sustainability coefficients for the EU for 27 economies between 2001Q4 and 2022Q3. While fiscal sustainability coefficients derive from the government revenues and expenditures relationship, external sustainability coefficients were computed from the exports’ responses to changes in imports. Our results show that geopolitical risks are always associated with lower fiscal and external sustainability, although with a stronger effect when took into consideration the home geopolitical risk. Moreover, the effects of geopolitical tensions are much stronger on external accounts’ sustainability than on fiscal sustainability. The magnitude of GPR detrimental effects on external sustainability can be 3 to 6 times higher, approximately, when compared to public finances’ sustainability. Lastly, geopolitical tensions in border countries have a negative spillover effect on the sustainability of domestic external accounts. |
| Keywords: | Economic integration; Geopolitical risks; Fiscal sustainability; External sustainability; Time-varying coefficients |
| JEL: | E62 F15 F42 H62 H87 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03182024&r=int |
| By: | Federica Cappelli (University “Niccolò Cusano”, National Research Council of Italy – CNR, Institute for Studies on the Mediterranean – ISMed) |
| Abstract: | The question of whether changes in income inequality affect CO2 emissions remains a topic of debate at both theoretical and empirical levels. The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of changes in the full spectre of income distribution on consumption based CO2 emissions per capita. To do so, we estimate a dynamic difference-GMM model and a dynamic threshold regression model allowing for endogeneity on a panel database covering 107 countries between 1990 and 2019. Our analysis highlights how different income classes contribute very differently to consumption-based CO2 emissions. In addition, by accounting for between-country inequalities in the average income of each income group, we uncover non-linearities in the impact on carbon emissions. More specifically, the impact of an increase in the income share of the top 10% on per capita consumption-based carbon emissions varies according to their average income level: it is negative at lower income levels and becomes positive as their income rises. The contribution of the middle class is negative at all income levels, while the CO2 contribution of the poorest segments is negligible. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, Emissions, Income Distribution, Climate Change |
| JEL: | D31 D63 Q54 Q57 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2024.06&r=int |
| By: | Bright A. Gyamfi (Udaipur, India); Divine Q. Agozie (University of Ghana, Business School); Ernest B. Ali (University of Ghana, Ghana); Festus V. Bekun (Istanbul, Turkey); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | As the environmental sustainability effectiveness of various political systems is taken into consideration, it is doubtful as to whether the presumption of the overall efficiency of democracy can be sustained in global governance architecture. The effectiveness of autocracies and democracies (i.e., governance indicators are compared in the present study) with reference to strengths and weaknesses in environmental objectives. This analysis explores the effect of autocracy, democracy, as well as the trend of globalization on CO2 emissions for open and closed economies from 1990 to 2020. Crucial indicators such as economic growth, renewable energy and non-renewable energy are controlled for while examining the roles of economic expansion on the disaggregated energy consumption portfolios for both open and closed economies. The empirical analysis revealed some insightful results. First, for the open economies, with the expectation of non-renewable energy which show a positive significant impact on emissions, all variables show a negative effect on emissions. Furthermore, the closed economies result indicate that, apart from renewable energy which has a negative relationship with emissions, all the variables including the interaction terms have a positive relation with emissions. However, an inverted U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis was validated for both economies. |
| Keywords: | Open economies, closed economies, democracy, autocracy, Environmental Kuznets Curve, globalization index, environmental sustainability |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:24/005&r=int |