nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2024‒03‒25
35 papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici, Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. High-priority battlefield items and television sets: How sanctions reduced Russians' access to goods By Korhonen, Iikka; Simola, Heli
  2. The trade effects of a new agreement on services domestic regulation By So, Roger Yu; Bekkers, Eddy
  3. The Pro-competitive Effects of Trade Agreements By Meredith Crowley; Lu Han; Thomas Prayer
  4. Global Supply Chains and U.S. Import Price Inflation By Mary Amiti; Oleg Itskhoki; David E. Weinstein
  5. International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Sanctions By Fabio Ghironi; Daisoon Kim; G. Kemal Ozhan
  6. Brexit and Foreign Students in Gravity By Ronald B. Davies; Lena S. Specht
  7. Deflecting Economic Sanctions: Do Trade and Political Alliances Matter? By Devasmita Jena; C. Akash; Prachi Gupta
  8. Mapping and testing product-level vulnerabilities in granular production networks By Antoine Berthou; Antton Haramboure; Lea Samek
  9. US Inequality in the 1980s: The Tokyo Round Trade Liberalization and the Swiss Formula By James Lake; Andrew Greenland; John Lopresti
  10. Shipping Disruptions in the Red Sea: Ripples across the Globe By Jason Dunn; Fernando Leibovici
  11. From Dominant to Producer Currency Pricing: Dynamics of Chilean Exports By José De Gregorio; Pablo García; Emiliano E. Luttini; Marco Rojas
  12. Global supply chain bottlenecks and exporter performance: evidence from Italy By Fadi Hassan
  13. Soybean Production, Marketing Costs, and Export Competitiveness in Brazil and the United States By Valdes, Constanza; Gillespie, Jeffrey; Dohlman, Erik
  14. Product innovation and export strategy By Kevin Randy Chemo Dzukou; Sabine Duvaleix; Karine Latouche
  15. The Role of Domestic and Foreign Sentiment for Cross-Border Portfolio Flows By Birru, Justin; Wynter, Matthew
  16. Regional representation in the European Parliament: Parliamentary Questions on Geographical Indication By Martijn Huysmans; Niels Gheyle
  17. Globalization and Profitability of US Firms: The Role of Intangibles By Bullipe R. Chintha; Ravi Jagannathan; Sri S. Sridhar
  18. Credit Constraints, Corporate Transparency, and Export By Yikai Zhao; Rui Sun; Jun Nagayasu
  19. Breaking Barriers: The Impact of Employer Exposure to Immigrants By Lehrer, Steven; Lepage, Louis-Pierre; Sousa Pereira, Nuno
  20. In brief... The discussion of immigration needs to improve By Alan Manning
  21. The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory By Xiwen Bai; Jesús Fernández-Villaverde; Yiliang Li; Francesco Zanetti
  22. The price of war By Federle, Jonathan; Meier, André; Müller, Gernot J.; Mutschler, Willi; Schularick, Moritz
  23. Estimating the wage premia of refugee immigrants: Lessons from Sweden By Baum, Christopher F.; Lööf, Hans; Stephan, Andreas; Zimmermann, Klaus F.
  24. The SDGs and food system challenges: Global trends and scenarios toward 2030 By Martin, Will; Vos, Rob
  25. Appropriate Entrepreneurship? The Rise of China and the Developing World By Josh Lerner; Junxi Liu; Jacob Moscona; David Y. Yang
  26. Historical and Future Global Emissions Reductions due to Qatar’s LNG Exports By Muez Ali; Abdalftah Hamid; Gonzalo Castro de la Mata; Alex Amato
  27. Assessing China's Efforts to Increase Self-Reliance By Francois de Soyres; Dylan Moore
  28. Navigating the Evolving Landscape between China and Africa’s Economic Engagements By Ms. Wenjie Chen; Michele Fornino; Henry Rawlings
  29. Offshoring Emissions through Used Vehicle Exports By S. J. Newman; K. Schulte; M. M. Morellini; C. Rahal; D. Leasure
  30. Immigrant Diversity and Long-Run Development By Luigi Minale; Rudi Rocha; Bruno Vigna
  31. The US Equity Valuation Premium, Globalization, and Climate Change Risks By Stulz, Rene M.; Doidge, Craig; Karolyi, George Andrew
  32. Pakistan’s Emigration: Trends & Insights By Junaid Ahmed
  33. Signing as Signalling in International Environmental Agreements By Antonina Nazarova; Corrado Di Maria; Emiliya Lazarova
  34. Stagnation der liechtensteinischen Güterexporte: Bestandsaufnahme und Ursachensuche By Berend, Lukas; Brunhart, Andreas; Geiger, Martin
  35. Potable Intellectual Property: WTO TRIPS and EU Geographical Indication Wines By Daniele Curzi; Martijn Huysmans; Oliver Ken Haase

  1. By: Korhonen, Iikka; Simola, Heli
    Abstract: We examine Russian imports since a coalition of countries imposed sanctions on exports to Russia. As Russia no longer publishes detailed statistics on foreign trade, we rely on export data from its largest trading partners (mirror statistics). We are particularly interested in trade diversion, i.e. the extent to which Russian imports have shifted from sanctioning countries to other countries. Our analysis is based on monthly export data and focuses on technology goods (HS codes 84 and 85) utilizing a difference-in-difference approach. Our dataset covers exports to Russia at the HS6-level of disaggregation from 26 sanctioning and 14 non-sanctioning countries during 2018-2023. We find that the exports of sanctioning countries to Russia fell drastically overall, with exports of sanctioned goods declining more than average exports. On the other hand, the export of sanctioned goods to Russia by non-sanctioning countries have risen more than their overall exports, indicating that Russia has managed to replace some goods no longer available from sanctioning countries, but not all of them.
    Keywords: Russia, sanctions, foreign trade
    JEL: F12 F14 F51
    Date: 2024
  2. By: So, Roger Yu; Bekkers, Eddy
    Abstract: In this paper, we project the impact of the implementation of a Joint Statement Initiative (JSI) on Services Domestic Regulation (SDR). We proceed in three steps. First, we include the WTO SDR Index, a binary score of SDR implementation in 23 sectors and 86 economies, in a gravity equation, estimated with the balance of payments services trade. We take into account domestic services trade to identify the impact of the importer-specific SDR Index by interacting the SDR Index with a border dummy, following an established methodology in the gravity literature. The estimation generates a significant impact of the SDR Index in a series of regressions pooled across all sectors, accounting for other determinants of services trade. Second, we map the estimates together with projected changes in the SDR Index into ad valorem equivalent trade cost changes under the implementation of the negotiated outcome on SDR. Estimated trade cost reductions are 10%, 14%, and 8.5% in lower-middleincome, upper-middle-income, and high-income countries respectively. In dollars, the estimated trade cost reduction of $127 Bn is similar to earlier OECD estimates of the trade cost reduction of the SDR of about $150 Bn. Third, the WTO Global Trade Model, a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, is employed to project the economic effects of the SDR outcome which are modelled as resourcesaving reductions in iceberg trade costs. Simulations indicate that global income would increase by 0.3% in the long run (over 10 years), while global exports are projected to rise by 0.8%. The projected gains are largest in lower- and upper-middle-income countries while impacts on non-participants are projected to be marginally positive.
    Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium models, gravity estimation, services trade
    JEL: F13 F17
    Date: 2024
  3. By: Meredith Crowley; Lu Han; Thomas Prayer
    Abstract: How does trade policy affect competition? Using the universe of product exports by firms from eleven low and middle-income countries, we document that tariff reductions under trade agreements have strong procompetitive effects – they encourage entry and reduce the (tariff exclusive) price-cost markups of exporters. This finding, that markups fall with tariff cuts, contradicts a core prediction of standard oligopolistic competition models of trade. We extend a workhorse international pricing model of oligopolistic competition to include multiple countries and a rich preference structure. Our preference structure allows for fierce competition among firms from the same country and less intense competition among firms from different countries. We show a firm’s optimal markup after a tariff cut can rise or fall depending on the parameters of the preference structure and tariff-induced reallocation of market share among firms and across countries.
    Keywords: trade agreements, variable markups, markup elasticity, trade elasticity, competition policy, firm level data.
    JEL: F13 F14 F15
    Date: 2022–07
  4. By: Mary Amiti; Oleg Itskhoki; David E. Weinstein
    Abstract: Inflation around the world increased dramatically with the reopening of economies following COVID-19. After reaching a peak of 11 percent in the second quarter of 2021, world trade prices dropped by more than five percentage points by the middle of 2023. U.S. import prices followed a similar pattern, albeit with a lower peak and a deeper trough. In a new study, we investigate what drove these price movements by using information on the prices charged for products shipped from fifty-two exporters to fifty-two importers, comprising more than twenty-five million trade flows. We uncover several patterns in the data: (i) From 2021:Q1 to 2022:Q2, almost all of the growth in U.S. import prices can be attributed to global factors, that is, trends present in most countries; (ii) at the end of 2022, U.S. import price inflation started to be driven by U.S. demand factors; (iii) in 2023, foreign suppliers to the U.S. market caught up with demand and account for the decline in import price inflation, with a significant role played by China.
    Keywords: global supply chains; imports; inflation; China
    JEL: E31 F14 F42
    Date: 2024–03–04
  5. By: Fabio Ghironi; Daisoon Kim; G. Kemal Ozhan
    Abstract: We study international trade and macroeconomic dynamics triggered by the imposition of sanctions. We begin with a tractable two-country model where Home and Foreign countries have comparative advantages in production of differentiated consumption goods and a commodity (e.g., gas), respectively. Home imposes sanctions on Foreign. Financial sanctions exclude a fraction of Foreign agents from the international bond market. Gas sanctions take the form of a ban on gas trade, equivalent to an appropriate price cap in our model. Differentiated goods trade sanctions exclude a fraction of Foreign and Home exporters from international trade. All sanctions lead to resource reallocation in both economies. Exchange rate movements reflect the direction of reallocation and the type of sanctions imposed rather than the success of the sanctions. Welfare analysis shows that gas sanctions are more costly for Home, while differentiated consumption goods trade sanctions are more costly for Foreign. A third country that refrains from joining the sanctions mitigates welfare losses in Foreign, but refraining from joining the sanctions is beneficial for the third country. These findings highlight the importance and the difficulty of international coordination when imposing sanctions.
    JEL: F31 F41 F42 F51
    Date: 2024–03
  6. By: Ronald B. Davies; Lena S. Specht
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of Brexit on international student migration. In a structural gravity model, we estimate student migration between 69 countries for counterfactual scenarios in which the United Kingdom leaves the European Union one year before the referendum. This exercise reveals a decrease in exchange students studying in the UK of around 3.8% to 4.9%. While the number of non-EU students to the UK rises, a drop in EU student numbers drives this result. Similarly, 30% to 38% fewer UK students choose to study abroad. The estimated changes in international student stocks show that most other member countries lose international students and non-EU countries host more than without Brexit. Our findings provide evidence that there may be hidden costs to Brexit affecting global student exchanges that we have yet to see.
    Keywords: international migration, international students, gravity model, Brexit
    JEL: F22 I28 J11
    Date: 2024
  7. By: Devasmita Jena (Corresponding Author, Madras School of Economics (MSE), Chennai); C. Akash (MSE); Prachi Gupta (Temple University, Tokyo, Japan)
    Abstract: Success of economic sanctions hinges on their impact on sanctioned countries’ trade. This, in turn, depends on the sanctioned country’s opportunity to divert trade to a third-party (country, not involved in sanctions). History is witness to third-parties facilitating trade diversion, thus busting sanction. Nonetheless, literature does not present conclusive evidence on trade diversion or on motivation for busting sanctions. Therefore, in this paper, we address the following. What bearing sanctions have on bilateral trade flows and trade diversion? Is diversion dependent on the political and trade alliance the third-party shares with the sanctioned and/or the sanctioning countries? We estimate a structural gravity model for globally representative country-dyads, during 1990-2019, using, inter-alia the Global Sanctions Database. We find that sanctions depress bilateral trade between sanctioned and sanctioning nations and cause trade diversion via third-party. The existence of trade alliance between third-party and country involved in sanction has additional impact on trade diversion. Furthermore, a political alliance between third-party and sanctioned country heightens trade between them. However, political alliance between third-party and sanctioning country doesn’t explain trade between them. Our results have insight for India’s evolving trade relations with Russia, since 2022, as Russia reels under Western sanctions.
    Keywords: Sanction, GSDB, Trade Agreement, Political Alliance, Structural Gravity Model
    JEL: F1 F14 F51 N4
    Date: 2023–10
  8. By: Antoine Berthou; Antton Haramboure; Lea Samek
    Abstract: This paper conducts an in-depth mapping of global value chain (GVC) vulnerabilities, using granular product-level trade data to identify vulnerable products with limited suppliers and substitutability. The study reveals that, in OECD countries, approximately 8% of foreign-sourced intermediate products are vulnerable, with about 50 products identified as highly vulnerable, particularly in the pharmaceutical, mining, and manufacturing sectors. The paper also introduces a quantitative framework for simulating supply shock transmission from upstream suppliers to downstream industries over the short and medium term. This framework leverages unique data that combine Inter-Country Input-Output with detailed product-level trade data from Comtrade. Through simulation exercises, the paper highlights the role of supplier concentration and geography in shock transmissions, as well as the effectiveness of policies in mitigating these impacts. This novel cross-country assessment of GVC disruptions provides new insights on how to manage supply chains in a global economy subject to multiple risks.
    Keywords: Global Value Chains, International trade, Resilience
    JEL: F14 F68 L52
    Date: 2024–03–15
  9. By: James Lake (Department of Economics, University of Tennessee); Andrew Greenland (Department of Economics, North Carolina State University); John Lopresti (Department of Economics, William and Mary)
    Abstract: Against a backdrop of sharply rising inequality, the Tokyo Round of the GATT resulted in a 1.6 percentage point reduction in average US tariffs – larger than CUSFTA, NAFTA, and the liberalization accompanying the granting of PNTR to China. We construct a novel IV based on the so-called ``Swiss formula'' that governed Tokyo Round tariff liberalization to provide the first evidence of its effects on imports and inequality. Instrumented tariff reductions explain 17% of the within-industry rise in income inequality between skilled and unskilled workers between 1979 and 1988. This effect is largest in more technology-intensive industries, suggesting a complementarity between trade liberalization and skill-biased technological change. We also show that tariff liberalization in upstream industries produced a shift away from labor more broadly and towards intermediate inputs. Finally, we show that policymakers dampened the observed impact of tariffs on inequality by assigning smaller tariff reductions to industries more reliant on low-skilled labor.
    JEL: F13 F14 F66
    Date: 2024–02
  10. By: Jason Dunn; Fernando Leibovici
    Abstract: Recent attacks on cargo vessels in the Red Sea have disrupted a major shipping lane. This analysis looks at the impact on shipping costs and global trade flows.
    Keywords: shipping disruptions; cargo vessels; shipping costs; global trade
    Date: 2024–02–15
  11. By: José De Gregorio; Pablo García; Emiliano E. Luttini; Marco Rojas
    Abstract: We revisit a central question for international macroeconomics: the response of export prices and quantities to movements in the exchange rate (ER). We use granular export data for Chile and study how the effects of ER movements vary over time with the currency of invoicing and the destination of exports. For prices, we find that the short-run effects of bilateral ER movements vanish when controlling for U.S. dollar ER, which supports dominant currency pricing. However, over longer horizons a more significant role is played by bilateral ER movements, in line with the predictions of producer currency pricing. These dynamics do not depend on the invoicing currency. The results we find for quantities support the view that bilateral exchange rate movements contribute to macroeconomic adjustment through export volumes over the medium term.
    JEL: F14 F31 F41
    Date: 2024–02
  12. By: Fadi Hassan (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: Using custom-level and survey data for Italian firms, this paper examines the performance of firms exposed to global value chain (GVC) bottlenecks in terms of exports, revenues, and hours worked. We find evidence that firms reporting greater difficulties in sourcing the desired amount of inputs experienced posted significantly higher growth on average. The magnitude of this result is larger for firms with more diversified suppliers and is unaffected by the geographical distance of suppliers. We disentangle the role of demand and supply factors in firms’ performance and the results suggest that, despite constraints on the supply side, problems in sourcing inputs mostly mirrored an increase in demand. These findings hold true when using alternative direct and indirect measures of firms’ exposure to bottlenecks, as well as when taking into account several firms’ characteristics and fixed effects. We also examine firms’ future GVC strategies through a survey. There is limited evidence of firms willing to retrench from GVCs through re-shoring or near-shoring, but there is strong evidence of firms aiming to increase GVCs’ resilience through greater diversification of suppliers and larger inventories.
    Keywords: GVCs, production bottlenecks, exports
    JEL: F1 F6 D22
    Date: 2023–10
  13. By: Valdes, Constanza; Gillespie, Jeffrey; Dohlman, Erik
    Abstract: The production of soybeans, the fourth leading crop produced globally, is projected to reach a record level in marketing year (MY) 2023/24. Combined, soybeans and their products—soybean meal and soybean oil—are the most traded agricultural commodity, accounting for nearly 9 percent of the total value of global agricultural trade. Brazil is the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter, with the United States and Brazil jointly supplying 89 percent of soybean exports to the world in MY 2021/22 (USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service [FAS], 2023). Soybeans stand out as a crucial crop in the expansion of Brazil’s farm sector and the country’s ascent as a top global supplier of agricultural products. This report focuses on the export competitiveness for soybeans in Brazil and the United States over the MY 2017/18–2021/22 periods by comparing farm-level production costs, producer returns, the cost of internal transportation, and the cost of shipping to a common export destination. With soybean production in Brazil expected to reach a record high in MY 2023/24, a weaker value of Brazil’s currency, and the country’s exporting capabilities expecting a boost (from expanding transportation infrastructure), changes in the competitiveness of Brazil will have important implications for U.S. and international agricultural markets.
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade, Land Economics/Use, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis
    Date: 2023–12
  14. By: Kevin Randy Chemo Dzukou (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Sabine Duvaleix (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Karine Latouche (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement)
    Abstract: This paper analyses the relationship between innovation and export performance. More specifically, we highlight the effect of the introduction of new products on the quality and prices charged by firms in international markets. Based on Hallak and Sivadasan (2013)'s theoretical work, we develop a model to explain the mechanism underlying the relationship between innovation and product quality. Using a unique database of new product launches combined with data on production and trade in the French dairy industry, we tested this mechanism in several ways. Our results show that the export prices charged by the firms increase after the introduction of a new product in a given market. We also show that the projected quality of the new product increases after its introduction in a given market. This confirms the quality-upgrading effect of innovation at product level. These results are highly robust econometrically.
    Keywords: New product introduction, Export prices, Quality upgrading, Quality differentiation
    Date: 2023–05–26
  15. By: Birru, Justin (Ohio State U); Wynter, Matthew (Stony Brook U)
    Abstract: We show that sentiment influences the demand for foreign stocks, as identified by international portfolio flows between investors in the United States and investors in 44 other countries. We document two channels through which sentiment affects flows. First, inflows are higher to countries with higher sentiment. Second, higher sentiment in a given country is associated with lower outflows from that country to bilateral trade partners, suggesting that sentiment in one country can have spillover effects on demand for assets in other countries. The combined sentiment effects are associated with economically meaningful implications for net flows. Finally, we consider country closed-end funds and find evidence of pricing effects of sentiment.
    JEL: F30 F32 G11 G14 G15
    Date: 2023–05
  16. By: Martijn Huysmans; Niels Gheyle
    Abstract: The European Parliament represents the citizens of the European Union. However, individual Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) also face incentives to represent more narrow regional economic interests. Geographical Indications such as Feta or Champagne are an ideal policy area to study regional representation. Their defined regions provide clear incentives and a reliable measurement of regional representation. This article codes and analyses the written questions on Geographical Indications posed by MEPs during the period 2009-2019. Descriptively, we find that MEPs often mention products from their region. We also find that MEPs focus their questions on contentious products and on politicized free trade agreements. Quantitatively, logit regressions provide evidence for more regional representation by MEPs from countries with regional lists for EP elections. We conclude with the implications of our research for representation in the European Union, and the idea of transnational lists.
    Keywords: European Parliament, Regional Representation, Parliamentary Questions, Geographical Indications, Trade Agreements
    Date: 2023–10
  17. By: Bullipe R. Chintha; Ravi Jagannathan; Sri S. Sridhar
    Abstract: China's admission into the WTO in 2001 heralded a new era of globalization, increasing both import competition in domestic markets and foreign opportunities for US firms. In the aggregate, the average annual profitability of US public firms during the post globalization period (2003-2019) increased by 11.5% of the corresponding pre-globalization period (1984-2002) profitability. This increase in overall aggregate profitability was primarily driven by foreign profitability increasing by 47.4% for firms in the S&P 500 index, which are larger and have more intangible assets created by R&D and SG&A expenditures. In contrast, following globalization, the average aggregate domestic profitability of US firms remained flat, and firms employed more capital to generate sales. Firms with higher intangible assets benefited more from globalization.
    JEL: F20 F30 G0 G12 G30 L1 L25
    Date: 2024–03
  18. By: Yikai Zhao; Rui Sun; Jun Nagayasu
    Abstract: This study investigates the impact of corporate transparency on a firm's extensive margin in exports ("transparency-export" (TE) relationship). We propose a theoretical model for an asym­metric information environment and demonstrate that the TE relationship depends on a firm's current corporate transparency record. Moreover, we posit that mandated firms, especially those with severe financing constraints, can harm their export activities to enhance transparency. How­ever, improving a city's financial deepening and legal environment could offset these negative impacts and positively impact its TE relationship. The Chinese data support these theoretical implications.
    Date: 2024–02
  19. By: Lehrer, Steven (Queen's University); Lepage, Louis-Pierre (Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University); Sousa Pereira, Nuno (University of Porto)
    Abstract: We study how exposure of employers to immigrants, both at the market and at the individual firm level, mitigates immigrant-native disparities. We use administrative employee-employer matched data from Portugal, which provides a unique setting given that it experienced almost no immigration until the early 2000s followed by substantial immigration waves. Focusing on the evolution of market wages across successive immigration cohorts, we find that increased employer exposure to immigrant groups can account for up to 25% of the wage convergence between immigrants and natives over the last two decades. We also document that individual-level exposure of firms to immigrants plays an important role, influencing future hiring and remuneration of immigrants. Our results provide new insights into how barriers to hiring different worker groups shape economic inequality, with novel implications for immigration policies.
    Keywords: immigration; immigrant-native wage gaps
    JEL: J15 J31
    Date: 2024–03–01
  20. By: Alan Manning
    Abstract: Those who believe in a more open, liberal approach to immigration often frame their argument as being on the side of 'good economics' versus 'bad politics'. Alan Manning explains why the arguments presented as 'good economics' are often unconvincing; those on this side of the argument really need to up their game.
    Keywords: immigration, uk economy
    Date: 2024–02–20
  21. By: Xiwen Bai; Jesús Fernández-Villaverde; Yiliang Li; Francesco Zanetti
    Abstract: We study the causal effects and policy implications of global supply chain disruptions. We construct a new index of supply chain disruptions from the mandatory automatic identification system data of container ships, developing a novel spatial clustering algorithm that determines real-time congestion from the position, speed, and heading of container ships in major ports around the globe. We develop a model with search frictions between producers and retailers that links spare productive capacity with congestion in the goods market and the responses of output and prices to supply chain shocks. The co-movements of output, prices, and spare capacity yield unique identifying restrictions for supply chain disturbances that allow us to study the causal effects of such disruptions. We document how supply chain shocks drove inflation during 2021 but that, in 2022, traditional demand and supply shocks also played an important role in explaining inflation. Finally, we show how monetary policy is more effective in taming inflation after a global supply chain shock than in regular circumstances.
    Keywords: supply chain disruptions, search-and-matching in the goods market, SVAR, state-dependence of monetary policy
    JEL: E32 E58 J64
    Date: 2024
  22. By: Federle, Jonathan; Meier, André; Müller, Gernot J.; Mutschler, Willi; Schularick, Moritz
    Abstract: In an integrated global economy, the economic fallout of war is not confined to the country where the conflict is fought but spills over to other countries. We study the economic effects of large interstate wars using a new data set spanning 150 years of data for more than 60 countries. War on a country's territory typically leads to an output decline of 30 percent and a 15 percentage point increase in inflation. We find large negative effects also for countries that are geographically close to the war site, irrespective of their participation in the war. Output in neighboring countries falls by more than 10 percent over 5 years, and inflation rises by 5 percentage points on average. Negative spillovers decline with geographic distance and increase in the degree of trade integration with the war site. For very distant countries, output spillovers can turn positive so that wars create winners and losers in the international economy. We rationalize these findings in an international business cycle model, calibrated to capture key features of the data. As the war destroys capital in the war site and productivity falls, trade with nearby economies decreases, generating an endogenous supply-side contraction abroad.
    Keywords: Interstate Wars, Business Cycles, Spillovers, Distance, Supply Shocks, InternationalTransmission
    JEL: F40 F50 E50
    Date: 2024
  23. By: Baum, Christopher F.; Lööf, Hans; Stephan, Andreas; Zimmermann, Klaus F.
    Abstract: This paper examines the wage earnings of fully-employed previous refugee immigrants in Sweden. Using administrative employer-employee data from 1990 onwards, about 100, 000 refugee immigrants who arrived between 1980 and 1996 and were granted asylum, are compared to a matched sample of native-born workers. Employing recentered influence function (RIF) quantile regressions to wage earnings for the period 2011-2015, the occupational-task-based Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition approach shows that refugees perform better than natives at the median wage, controlling for individual and firm characteristics. This overperformance is due to female refugee immigrants, who have-relative to their endowment-higher wages than comparable native-born female peers up to the 8th decile of the wage distribution. Given their endowments, refugee immigrant females perform better than native females across all occupational tasks studied, including non-routine cognitive tasks. A remarkable similarity exists in the relative wage distributions among various refugee groups, suggesting that cultural differences and the length of time spent in the host country do not significantly affect their labor market performance.
    Keywords: refugees, wage earnings gap, occupational sorting, employer-employee data, correlated random effects model, Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition
    JEL: C23 F22 J24 J6 O15
    Date: 2024
  24. By: Martin, Will; Vos, Rob
    Abstract: Progress toward reducing global hunger has stalled since the mid-2010s. In fact, hunger is on the rise again, driven by slowing economic growth and protracted conflict, intensified by the impacts of climate change and economic shocks in many low- and middle-income countries. In addition, food systems worldwide have suffered disruptions in recent years, caused by the COVID-19-related global recession and associated supply chain disruptions, and exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. These factors have also jeopardized efforts at addressing the challenges to food system sustainability. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the related sustainable development goals (SDGs), defined in 2015, recognize these challenges and set ambitious targets to end hunger and all forms of malnutrition and to make agriculture and food systems sustainable by 2030. Many other fora have restated and reiterated these ambitions, including the 2021 United Nations Food System Summit (UNFSS). While governments around the world have subscribed to these ambitions, collectively they have not been very specific as to how to achieve the SDGs and related goals and targets, except for three means of implementation (MOI) involving (i) increases in research and development, (ii) reductions in trade distortions, and (iii) improved functioning and reduced volatility in food markets. This paper is part of a wider effort at assessing the international community’s follow-through on the above ambitions and the related (implicit or explicit) commitments made toward action for achieving them. While not presenting new research findings, we bring together available evidence and scenario analyses to assess the progress made toward the ambitions for transforming food systems, the actions taken in regard of the internationally concerted agenda, and the potential for accelerating progress. The number of hungry people in the world has risen from 564 million in 2015, when the SDGs were agreed, to 735 million in 2022. While declines to between 570 and 590 million by 2030 are projected, this is far above the 470 million projected in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war. The share of the world’s people unable to afford healthy diets is projected to decline from 42 percent in 2021 to a still far too high 36 percent by 2030. On the means of implementation, levels of spending on agricultural research and development have increased, particularly in key developing countries such as Brazil, China and India. However, rates of investment remain too low for comfort, particularly in low-income countries. Also, little progress has been made in reducing agricultural trade distortions and many countries continue to use trade policy measures, such as export restrictions, which have proven to increase the volatility of both world and domestic food prices. We conclude that progress toward the SDG-2 targets has been dismal, and that the food system challenges have only become bigger. But we also find that it is not too late to accelerate progress and that the desired food system transformation can still be achieved over a reasonable timespan and at manageable incremental cost. Doing so will require unprecedented concerted and coherent action on multiple fronts, which may prove the biggest obstacle of all.
    Keywords: food security; food systems; hunger; nutrition; diet; sustainable development goals
    Date: 2024
  25. By: Josh Lerner; Junxi Liu; Jacob Moscona; David Y. Yang
    Abstract: Global innovation and entrepreneurship has traditionally been dominated by a handful of high-income countries, especially the US. This paper investigates the international consequences of the rise of a new hub for innovation, focusing on the dramatic growth of high-potential entrepreneurship and venture capital in China. First, using comprehensive data on global venture activities, we show that as the Chinese venture industry rose in importance, entrepreneurship increased substantially in other emerging markets, particularly in sectors dominated by Chinese companies. Using a broad set of country-level economic indicators, we find that this effect was driven by country-sector pairs most similar to their counterparts in China. Second, turning to mechanisms, we show that the baseline findings are driven by local investors and by new firms that more closely resemble existing Chinese companies. Third, we find that this growth in emerging-market investment had wide-ranging positive consequences, including a rise in serial entrepreneurship, cross-sector spillovers, innovation, and broader measures of socioeconomic well-being. Together, our findings suggest that developing countries benefited from more “appropriate” businesses and technology pioneered by China, and that a system where only rich countries lead in innovation could limit entrepreneurial activity in large parts of the world.
    JEL: O11 O33
    Date: 2024–03
  26. By: Muez Ali (Center for a Sustainable Future, Qatar Foundation, Qatar); Abdalftah Hamid (Center for a Sustainable Future, Qatar Foundation, Qatar); Gonzalo Castro de la Mata (Center for a Sustainable Future, Qatar Foundation, Qatar); Alex Amato (Center for a Sustainable Future, Qatar Foundation, Qatar)
    Abstract: Qatar exports most of its LNG to South Korea, Japan, China and India. Most of Qatar’s export markets have carbon-intensive economies where industry contributes, on average, 32% to total GDP. This paper attempts to estimate the reductions in carbon dioxide emissions due to Qatar’s LNG displacing more carbon-intensive fuels in Qatar’s main export markets. LNG emits almost 50% less carbon dioxide than coal and 30% less carbon dioxide than oil products. Therefore, LNG is a cleaner alternative to coal and oil products, particularly in the power sector and industry. Using data from the IEA, EIA and the World Bank, we estimate the reductions in carbon dioxide emissions due to Qatar’s LNG replacing more carbon-intensive fuels in Qatar’s export markets by assuming a hypothetical scenario where Qatar’s LNG disappears from the global energy mix between 2005 and 2020. We estimate an upper bound where all of Qatar’s LNG is replaced by coal and a lower bound where Qatar’s LNG is replaced by all fuels in the energy mix in proportion to their existing shares. Finally, using a stochastic approach, we develop a ‘most likely’ scenario that considers the annual growth rate in coal consumption and the share of coal in the energy mix.The same analysis is conducted for a scenario that projects energy consumption and emissions to 2040. The results of the analysis show that between 2005 and 2020, in the ‘most likely’ scenario, by replacing coal and other carbon-intensive fuels, Qatar’s LNG exports likely reduced global emissions by more than 600 MtCO2. During the same period, these emission reductions amounted to 40% of Qatar’s annual local emissions on average. However, in the future scenario, emission reductions due to Qatar’s LNG exports decrease significantly and the gap between Qatar’s local emissions and how much it offsets by exporting LNG grows over time. This is mainly due to the phase out of coal from global energy systems. We conclude with policy recommendations on how Qatar can close the gap between its local emissions and how much it offsets through LNG exports.
    Date: 2024–01–20
  27. By: Francois de Soyres; Dylan Moore
    Abstract: Since the beginning of 2018, the United States and China have been increasing tariff rates on each other's imports, spurring debates about a possible fragmentation of trade into blocs of aligned countries (Pierce and Yu (2023), Alfaro and Chor (2023)). Later that year, in a November 2018 speech to workers at a state-owned enterprise, President Xi Jinping mentioned that current events were forcing China to "travel the road of self-reliance."
    Date: 2024–02–02
  28. By: Ms. Wenjie Chen; Michele Fornino; Henry Rawlings
    Abstract: China and Africa have forged a strong economic relationship since China’s accession to the WTO in 2001. This paper examines the evolution of these economic ties starting in the early 2000s, and the subsequent shift in the relationship triggered by the commodity price collapse in 2015 and by the COVID-19 pandemic. The potential effects on the African continent of a further slowdown in Chinese growth are analyzed, highlighting the varying effects on different countries in Africa, especially those heavily dependent on their economic relationship with China. The conclusion offers a discussion of ways how African countries and China could adapt to the changing relationship.
    Keywords: Africa; sub-Saharan Africa; China; Trade; Debt; Lending; Investment; Belt and Road Initiative.
    Date: 2024–02–23
  29. By: S. J. Newman; K. Schulte; M. M. Morellini; C. Rahal; D. Leasure
    Abstract: Policies to reduce transport emissions often overlook the international flow of used vehicles. We quantify the rate at which used vehicles generated CO2 and pollution for all used vehicles exported from Great Britain; a globally leading used vehicle exporter across 2005-2021. Destined for low-middle-income countries, exported vehicles fail roadworthiness standards and, even under extremely optimistic functioning as new assumptions, generate at least 13-53 percent more emissions than scrapped or on-road vehicles.
    Date: 2024–02
  30. By: Luigi Minale (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Rudi Rocha (São Paulo School of Business Administration, Getulio Vargas Foundation); Bruno Vigna (BNDES)
    Abstract: The article investigates the long-term economic effects of immigrant diversity. Focusing on the large immigration wave experienced by Brazil at the turn of the twentieth century, we ask whether municipalities in the State of São Paulo that received a population of immigrants characterized by a more diverse mix of origin countries ended up having better long-term economic outcomes. To identify causal effects, we leverage on unique historical individual-level data in immigrants arriving in São Paulo between 1880 and 1920, and develop an instrumental variable strategy that combines time variation in the composition of immigrants arriving from overseas with the timing of the railway network expansion in the state. We find that a one standard deviation increase in accumulated immigrant diversity in 1920 is associated with a 7-8% higher income per capita in 2000. This effect is economically relevant and robust to various identification tests. Furthermore, when exploring the mechanisms through which immigrant diversity affected long-term development, we document that municipalities that hosted more a more diverse pool of immigrants experienced (i) larger proportions of employment in manufacturing and services as well as greater occupational diversity within manufacturing in the long-term; (ii) higher investment in public goods, as measured by municipal spending on education; (iii) and higher education outputs in the long-run.
    Keywords: birthplace diversity, immigration, long-term development
    JEL: C36 N36 O15
    Date: 2024–03
  31. By: Stulz, Rene M. (Ohio State U and ECGI); Doidge, Craig (U of Toronto); Karolyi, George Andrew (Cornell U)
    Abstract: In the 2000s, US firms have higher valuations than comparable non-US firms listed only outside the US but not non-US firms cross-listed in the US. Though one would expect this US valuation premium to fall over time because of globalization, it widens for firms in developed markets by 36% and falls for firms in emerging markets by 20% after the global financial crisis of 2007-2008. This evolution is explained in part by the decreased valuation of brown firms in other developed countries relative to the US. Other potential explanations are explored and rejected.
    JEL: F21 F65 G10 G15 G34
    Date: 2023–09
  32. By: Junaid Ahmed (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics)
    Abstract: In recent times, Pakistan has witnessed a significant trend in emigration as millions of its citizens actively seek opportunities abroad. This trend is a direct response to the challenges the country currently grapples with, including a burgeoning population, economic instability that has resulted in limited domestic job prospects, and the impact of soaring inflation. These factors have together fueled the increasing wave of emigration from Pakistan. In 2020, nearly 6.3 million Pakistani immigrants were residing abroad, making Pakistan one of the top ten immigrant populations globally.
    Date: 2024
  33. By: Antonina Nazarova (University of East Anglia); Corrado Di Maria (School of Economics, University of East Anglia); Emiliya Lazarova (School of Economics, University of East Anglia)
    Abstract: In this paper, we revisit the role of the signature by the executive in the context of international environmental agreements. Using a novel panel dataset covering 52 agreements involving 203 countries over the period 1975-2017, we show that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the act of signing a treaty significantly increases the probability of ratification.
    Keywords: International Environmental Agreements, Strategic Interaction, Signalling, Signature, Proportional Hazard Models
    JEL: F53 Q58 K33
    Date: 2024–02
  34. By: Berend, Lukas; Brunhart, Andreas; Geiger, Martin
    Abstract: Die Güterexporte Liechtensteins entwickelten sich während Jahrzehnten sehr dynamisch, synchron mit dem internationalen Aussenhandel und insgesamt positiver als das Welt-BIP. Seit der Finanzkrise 2008/09 hat das Wachstum der liechtensteinischen Exporte jedoch deutlich an Dynamik verloren und es kann eine zunehmende Entkopplung von der globalen Wirtschaftsentwicklung beobachtet werden. Die nachfolgende Analyse basierend auf Daten zu internationalen Güterhandelsströmen und liechtensteinischen Statistiken zeigt, dass diese Entkopplung nicht mit einem allgemeinen internationalen Nachfragerückgang nach Produkten der liechtensteinischen Industrieunternehmen erklärt werden kann, sondern in erster Linie mit Produktionsverschiebungen ins Ausland.
    Keywords: Liechtenstein, Export, Wettbewerbsfähigkeit, Aufwertung, Wertschöpfung
    JEL: F14 F62 L60
    Date: 2024
  35. By: Daniele Curzi; Martijn Huysmans; Oliver Ken Haase
    Abstract: To stimulate sustainable economic development and a greener economy, the European Commission co-funds public projects through the European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIF), which are among the largest such funds in the world worth approximately 100 billion euros annually. Since 2014, ESIF beneficiaries are incentivized to increase their use of green public procurement (GPP). In this paper, we study to what extent ESIF co-funding affects the uptake of GPP, making use of a rare dataset containing all public tender notices in the Czech Republic (2006-2019). We find a positive effect of ESIF on GPP and suggestive evidence that ESIF co-funding instigates selection behaviour by contracting authorities, that allocate their projects and resources to improve their chances of receiving co-funding. Exploiting two policy changes, we show that the ESIF’s effect on GPP is driven by financial incentives and not by ‘greener’ policy objectives. Finally, we study the effect of gained experience with GPP and find that it only increases contracting authorities’ later uptake of GPP to a limited extent. Mainstreaming of GPP calls for a more systemic approach that covers public procurement as a whole, for instance, by making GPP on a national level less voluntary for ESIF eligibility.
    Keywords: Geographical Indications, Wine, WTO, Intellectual Property, TRIPS
    Date: 2023–10

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