nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2024‒02‒05
34 papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici, Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Global value chain integration and non-tariff measures By Garcés Iriarte, Irene; Vogt, Achim
  2. Do Deep Trade Agreements with Intellectual Property Provisions Actually Increase International Trade? By Ridwan Ah Sheikh; Sunil Kanwar
  3. Firm Export Dynamics in Interdependent Markets By Alonso Alfaro-Ureña; Juanma Castro-Vincenzi; Sebastián Fanelli; Eduardo Morales
  4. Assessing the impact of a firm's export and import status on its efficiency By Knobel, Alexander (Кнобель, Александр); Zaytsev, Yuriy (Зайцев, Юрий); Sedalishchev, Vladimir (Седалищев, Владимир); Bagdasaryan, Kniaz (Багдасарян, Княз); Kuznetsov, Dmitry (Кузнецов, Дмитрий); Besov, Vladislav (Бесов, Владислав); Yeremin, Vladimir (Еремин, Владимир)
  5. Trade Barriers and Market Power: Evidence from Argentina's Discretionary Import Restrictions By David Atkin; Joaquin Blaum; Pablo D. Fajgelbaum; Augusto Ospital
  6. Local Export Spillovers within and between Industries in Japan By KONDO Keisuke
  7. Cross-Border Patenting, Globalization, and Development By Jesse LaBelle; Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso; Ana Maria Santacreu; Yoto V. Yotov
  8. EXIM’s Exit: The Real Effects of Trade Financing by Export Credit Agencies By Poorya Kabir; Adrien Matray; Karsten Müller; Chenzi Xu
  9. Indirect FDI under EU FDI regulation in times of war: Is the anti-circumvention clause enough? By Di Benedetto, Fabrizio
  10. Nepal-India Treaty of Trade: Avenues for amendments By Posh Raj Pandey; Paras Kharel; Kshitiz Dahal
  11. Assessing Regional Production Potential to Strengthen the Security of Supply in Strategic Products By Matthias Firgo; Fabian Gabelberger; Andreas Reinstaller; Yvonne Wolfmayr
  12. U.S. Trade Strategies and Korea-U.S. Cooperation Plans By Kang, Gu Sang; Kim, Hyok Jung; Kim, Jonghyuk; Kwon, Hyuk Ju; Park, Eunbin; Yeo Joon, Yeo Joon
  13. Opinion formation in the world trade network By C\'elestin Coquid\'e; Jos\'e Lages; Dima L. Shepelyansky
  14. ASSESSMENT OF THE OUTCOMES OF THE USE OF FOREIGN TRADE INSTRUMENTS TO REGULATE THE DOMESTIC MARKET OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN RUSSIA By Svetlov, Nikolai (Светлов, Николай); Ternovsky, Denis (Терновский, Денис); Uzun, Vasily (Узун, Василий); Shagaida, Natalia (Шагайда, Наталья); Potapova, Alexandra (Потапова, Александра); Shishkina, Ekaterina (Шишкина, Екатерина)
  15. AI Revolution: Reshaping Global Value Chains for the Future By Yu, Chen
  16. Estimation of empirical models for margins of exports with unknown non-linear functional forms: A Kernel-Regularized Least Squares (KRLS) approach Evidence from eight European countries By Joachim Wagner
  17. Democratization, state capacity and developmental correlates of international artificial intelligence trade By Unver, Hamid Akin; Ertan, Arhan S.
  18. 미국의 공급망 재편 정책에 대한 기업의 대응 및 시사점(Analysis of Firms’ Reactions to the US Government’s Supply Chain Reorganization Policies) By Joe, Dong-Hee; Moon, Seongman; Yoon, Yeo Joon
  19. Immigration and vocational training: Evidence from England By Alan Manning; Sandra McNally; Guglielmo Ventura
  20. Harnessing the Opportunities in Services Trade under RCEP: Perspectives from the Philippines By Tullao, Tereso Jr. S.; Rivera, John Paolo R.
  21. The Evolutionary and Correlative SWOT Analysis in Geoeconomics: Examining the RCEP within Today’s Global Political Economy By Chatzinikolaou, Dimos; Kapaltzoglou, Foteini (Feni); Vlados, Charis
  22. FDI, exchange rate and firm's gain in terms of real assets By Nizam, Ahmed Mehedi
  23. Intellectual Property Rights and the Efficiency of International Production Networks: Evidence from the Automotive Industry By Giuseppe Cavaliere; Graziano Moramarco; Alireza Naghavi
  24. Immigration and Provision of Public Goods: Evidence at the Local Level in the U.S. By Anna Maria Mayda; Mine Z. Senses; Walter Steingress
  25. On the time-varying impact of China’s bilateral political relations on its trading partners (1960–2022). By António Afonso; Valérie Mignon; Jamel Saadaoui
  26. Homeward Bound: How Migrants Seek Out Familiar Climates By Marguerite Obolensky; Marco Tabellini; Charles Taylor
  27. Media Coverage of Immigration and the Polarization of Attitudes By Schneider-Strawczynski, Sarah; Valette, Jérôme
  28. Modernisation of Container Ship Fleets: State of Play and Consequences for the Baltic Sea By Ronan Kerbiriou
  29. Contributions of international migration to development in Latin America and the Caribbean: good practices, challenges and recommendations By Cano Christiny, María Verónica; Martínez Pizarro, Jorge
  30. Developing country and industry materiality assessments to increase sustainable FDI By Dullabh, Nitesh
  31. Optimal Compellance By Tomas Sjostrom
  32. Designing EU Supply Chain Regulation By Gabriel Felbermayr; Klaus Friesenbichler; Markus Gerschberger; Peter Klimek; Birgit Meyer
  33. The Role of Labor Unions in Immigrant Integration By Dodini, Samuel; Willén, Alexander; Zhu, Julia Li
  34. Displacement and migration in the international climate negotiations: Loss and damage debate offers new scope for action By Biehler, Nadine; Knapp, Nadine; Koch, Anne

  1. By: Garcés Iriarte, Irene; Vogt, Achim
    Abstract: Abstract This paper investigates the degree to which domestic value added embodied in gross trade determines the formation of non-tariff measures (NTMs) imposed at the border and regulatory differences in technical regulation. We apply a recently developed political economy model of trade policies and global value chains to indicators of NTM restrictiveness. Our results demonstrate that higher domestic value added content in imports lowers policy makers’ incentives to impose trade restrictive NTM policies in a similar way as tariffs. These effects are heterogeneous with respect to sectors and income group of the policy-imposing country. More generally, the results imply that further globalization of production processes may trigger a reduction in NTM border measures and possibly lead to harmonization of technical regulation. However, at the same time re-shoring increases the risk of protectionism, which may occur primarily via imposing opaque NTMs rather than increasing tariffs, which in many cases are bound by international agreements. About the authors Irene Garcés and Achim Vogt
    Date: 2024–01–19
  2. By: Ridwan Ah Sheikh (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics); Sunil Kanwar (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) and deep trade agreements (DTAs) containing intellectual property rights (IPRs) provisions on export flows, for a panel of 87 countries spanning 1990-2017. We estimate a structural gravity model using the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) framework that simultaneously accounts for heteroskedasticity and a preponderance of zeros in trade flows, and include a rich set of fixed effects to account for multilateral resistance factors and endogeneity in binary trade agreement indicators. We introduce treatment leads and lags to account for anticipatory and phased-in effects of our key trade policy instruments. Our estimation results reveal, first, that there are no significant contemporaneous effects of PTAs or DTAs with IPRs-provisions on export flows. Any discernible effects manifest over time, as businesses gradually adapt to changes in tariff and non-tariff barriers. Second, the heterogeneous impact of deep versus shallow agreements does not appear to matter in our sample. Third, the depth of PTAs though positive significant, is economically small in magnitude. However, the depth of IPRs-related provisions and alternative policy areas within IPRs reveals a significantly negative impact on export flows.This indicates that the inclusion of additional provisions actually diminishes trade volumes, one conceivable explanation for which might be that the increased complexity of IPRs-related provisions in the DTAs renders compliance with the agreements more challenging. Fourth, our results indicate a lagged response of both PTAs and IPRs on high-IP and low-IP export flows. The patent-related, copyright-related and trademark-related provisions have a lagged impact on trade flows in the patent-intensive, copyright-intensive and trademark-intensive industries, respectively. Our findings suggest that IPRs promote trade contemporaneously in specific industrial clusters, demonstrating increased sensitivity to intellectual property. Our results are robust to various checks.
    Keywords: Preferential trade agreements, Deep trade agreements, Intellectual property rights, International trade. JEL codes: F100, F130, F140, O340
    Date: 2024–01
  3. By: Alonso Alfaro-Ureña (Banco Central de Costa Rica and Universidad de Costa Rica); Juanma Castro-Vincenzi (Harvard University); Sebastián Fanelli (CEMFI); Eduardo Morales (Princeton University)
    Abstract: We estimate a model of firm export dynamics featuring cross-country complementarities. The firm decides where to export by solving a dynamic combinatorial discrete choice problem, for which we develop a solution algorithm that overcomes the computational challenges inherent to the large dimensionality of its state space and choice set. According to our estimated model, firms enjoy cost reductions when exporting to countries geographically or linguistically close to each other, or that share deep trade agreements; and countries, especially small ones, sharing these traits with attractive destinations receive significantly more exports than in the absence of complementarities.
    Keywords: export dynamics, integer programming problem, deep free trade agreements
    JEL: F12 F13 F14
    Date: 2023–08
  4. By: Knobel, Alexander (Кнобель, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zaytsev, Yuriy (Зайцев, Юрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sedalishchev, Vladimir (Седалищев, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Bagdasaryan, Kniaz (Багдасарян, Княз) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kuznetsov, Dmitry (Кузнецов, Дмитрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Besov, Vladislav (Бесов, Владислав) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Yeremin, Vladimir (Еремин, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: Improving the efficiency of firms is one of the most important factors in economic growth. There are studies pointing to a possible increase in the productivity of firms as a result of their involvement in international trade. Partly, these differences are due to the fact that more efficient firms initially enter the international market (selection effect), but beyond this effect there is a direct effect on the productivity of participation in international trade. In addition, there is reason to believe that simultaneous participation in both exporting and importing activities (e.g. as a result of being embedded in value chains) may have a greater effect. Using econometric and analytical methods of data analysis, the heterogeneity of causal relationships between the increase in productivity of enterprises and their export and import status was revealed. However, the paper developed a methodology to identify enterprises whose potential involvement in international trade can contribute most to the growth of their productivity. The results of this research can be used for: the patterns established, as well as quantitative estimates of the magnitude of the effects corresponding to them, can be used to refine the forecasts of the effects of economic policy in the scenario analysis. Estimates of the effects of lowering the barriers to firms' export market entry on the productivity of Russian enterprises.
    Keywords: production frontier, export status, efficiency, international trade, productivity, selection effect, stochastic frontier model, high-dimensional model
    JEL: D21 F23 L22 B17 F13
    Date: 2022–11–11
  5. By: David Atkin; Joaquin Blaum; Pablo D. Fajgelbaum; Augusto Ospital
    Abstract: Countries are increasingly turning to non-tariff barriers that are hard to measure and often illegal under WTO rules. What are the impacts of these policies, and what do they reveal about market power in international trade? We study a comprehensive system of discretionary import licenses imposed by Argentina, where we observe the universe of transaction-level requests and approval decisions between 2013 and 2015. Approvals varied across firms and products in a manner consistent with the government's trade and investment objectives, and over time to safeguard the current account. Interacting these sources of variation to construct an instrument, we estimate that stricter restrictions increased the prices paid by importers, a result that runs counter to competitive price-setting behavior. Informed by a model and a classifier-Lasso, the price and quantity responses identify—for each combination of importer, narrow product, and origin—which side (importer or exporter) holds market power. We find that larger importers are more likely to hold market power, and those trading with richer countries are less likely to. The market-power distribution strongly shapes the effects of quantitative restrictions and the magnitude of optimal tariffs. Import prices rose by 4% as a result of Argentina's import restrictions, but would have risen by 13% (fallen by 8%) had all foreign firms (Argentinian firms) held market power.
    JEL: F12 F13 F14
    Date: 2024–01
  6. By: KONDO Keisuke
    Abstract: This study empirically tests the hypothesis that neighboring exporters increase the probability of export market entry (extensive margin) and export values (intensive margin). As mentioned in the international trade literature, export initiation requires additional fixed entry costs, and therefore, a high productivity is required to earn a positive profit. If neighboring establishments are already exporting, the necessary information for initiating exports is available in those areas, thus lowering entry costs. Prior studies provide mixed evidence on local export spillovers and need further validation. Using panel data on Japanese manufacturing establishments, this study provides evidence regarding intra-industry local export spillover effects on the extensive and intensive margins of exports; however, evidence concerning inter-industry local export spillovers is limited.
    Date: 2023–12
  7. By: Jesse LaBelle; Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso; Ana Maria Santacreu; Yoto V. Yotov
    Abstract: We build a stylized model that captures the relationships between cross-border patenting, globalization, and development. Our theory delivers a gravity equation for cross-border patents. To test the model’s predictions, we compile a new dataset that tracks patents within and between countries and industries, for 1980-2019. The econometric analysis reveals a strong, positive impact of policy and globalization on cross-border patent flows, especially from North to South. A counterfactual welfare analysis suggests that the increase in patent flows from North to South has benefited both regions, with South gaining more than North post-2000, thus lowering real income inequality in the world.
    Keywords: cross-border patents, gravity, policy, globalization, development
    JEL: F63 O14 O33 O34
    Date: 2023
  8. By: Poorya Kabir; Adrien Matray; Karsten Müller; Chenzi Xu
    Abstract: We study the role of export credit agencies—the predominant tool of industrial policy—on firm behavior by using the effective shutdown of the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) from 2015-2019 as a natural experiment. We show that firms that previously relied on EXIM support saw a 18% drop in global sales after the agency closed down, driven by a reduction in exports. Firms affected by the shutdown were unable to make up for the loss of trade financing, especially if they were financially constrained, and consequently laid off employees and curtailed investment. These negative effects were more pronounced for firms with higher export opportunities and higher ex-ante marginal revenue products of capital. Lower exports at the firm level aggregate up to lower total exports for industries most reliant on EXIM support. These findings suggest that government policies aimed at providing trade financing can boost exports and firm growth even in countries with well-developed financial markets without necessarily leading to a misallocation of resources.
    JEL: F13 F14 G31 H25 O24
    Date: 2024–01
  9. By: Di Benedetto, Fabrizio
    Abstract: This Perspective explores the consequences of the ECJ decision in the Xella case over the protection of EU security from threats linked to indirect FDI. While the judgement excludes them from the scope of the EU FDI Screening Regulation, this Perspective offers a solution to include them under its scope.
    Date: 2023
  10. By: Posh Raj Pandey (South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment); Paras Kharel (South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment); Kshitiz Dahal (South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment)
    Abstract: Although Nepal gains duty-free access in India for almost all of its products, some provisions of the bilateral trade treaty constrain Nepal’s exports to India. Furthermore, some of the reciprocal provisions of the treaty do not pay heed to the huge asymmetry in the size of the economies and their levels of development. This paper suggests amendments that could mitigate the main deficiencies in the current version of the treaty, as well as implementation and miscellaneous issues that need to be addressed to make bilateral trade more mutually beneficial.
    Date: 2023–10
  11. By: Matthias Firgo; Fabian Gabelberger (Austrian Institute of Economic Research); Andreas Reinstaller; Yvonne Wolfmayr
    Abstract: Recent shocks to global value chains and geopolitical tensions have reignited the debate on domestic production of strategic goods and technologies. This paper proposes an analytical framework for identifying and prioritising activities and regions for potential reshoring policies combining methods from international, industrial and regional economics. Particularly, we assess import dependencies, potentials and risks for competitive domestic production, and evaluate the embeddedness of existing and potential production in cognitively and technologically related activities in a region. We highlight the relevance of this approach as a policy tool using industries manufacturing strategic products and regions in Austria as an example.
    Keywords: Strategic products, reshoring, industrial policy, comparative advantage, import dependency, skill-relatedness
    Date: 2024–01–16
    Abstract: The U.S. has taken a leading role in global discussions, not only in addressing major economic and trade issues but also in formulating cooperative measures on the international stage. Consequently, understanding the U.S. position and response strategies for each critical issue arising from external shocks is essential. This understanding holds significant importance in shaping Korea's mid- to long-term foreign economic strategy. By comprehending the U.S. position and response strategies, particularly regarding major issues, this study aims to derive Korea’s future trade strategies with the U.S. and develop cooperation plans with the U.S. As a result of conducting research under these objectives, the following cooperation strategies between South Korea and the United States have been derived. First, in the context of supply chain restructuring, South Korea should consider expanding local investment and production in the semiconductor and battery sectors within the U.S. close collaboration between the government and companies is essential to maximize national interests. It is crucial for our companies to take advantage of the tax incentives and other regulatory incentives offered by the U.S. government when entering the U.S. market, and our government should provide diplomatic support for these efforts. Regarding digital trade, South Korea should actively participate in international discussions led by the U.S. to set standards for essential infrastructure in the global digital transformation, such as advanced communication networks like 5G and 6G. Further-more, South Korea should actively lead discussions within the IPEF on the Trade Facilitation and Digital Commerce Working Group to overcome limitations within the KORUS FTA's digital trade provisions and collaborate with participating countries to develop a roadmap for digital trade norms. In the area of climate change mitigation, South Korea and the U.S. should strengthen their cooperation by promoting joint research in environmentally friendly, low-carbon technologies such as hydrogen production and utilization, fuel cells, carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), and energy storage devices. Additionally, both countries should collaborate on producing related products. Furthermore, South Korea should proactively engage with the U.S. in discussions related to climate change policies that the U.S. and the EU are considering. (the rest omitted)
    Keywords: Korea-U.S. cooperation; Global Supply Chain; Digital Trade; Climate Change
    Date: 2023–12–28
  13. By: C\'elestin Coquid\'e; Jos\'e Lages; Dima L. Shepelyansky
    Abstract: We extend the opinion formation approach to probe the world influence of economical organizations. Our opinion formation model mimics a battle between currencies within the international trade network. Based on the United Nations Comtrade database, we construct the world trade network for the years of the last decade from 2010 to 2020. We consider different core groups constituted by countries preferring to trade in a specific currency. We will consider principally two core groups, namely, 5 Anglo-Saxon countries which prefer to trade in US dollar and the 11 BRICS+ which prefer to trade in a hypothetical currency, hereafter called BRI, pegged to their economies. We determine the trade currency preference of the other countries via a Monte Carlo process depending on the direct transactions between the countries. The results obtained in the frame of this mathematical model show that starting from year 2014 the majority of the world countries would have preferred to trade in BRI than USD. The Monte Carlo process reaches a steady state with 3 distinct groups: two groups of countries preferring, whatever is the initial distribution of the trade currency preferences, to trade, one in BRI and the other in USD, and a third group of countries swinging as a whole between USD and BRI depending on the initial distribution of the trade currency preferences. We also analyze the battle between USD, EUR and BRI, and present the reduced Google matrix description of the trade relations between the Anglo-Saxon countries and the BRICS+.
    Date: 2024–01
  14. By: Svetlov, Nikolai (Светлов, Николай) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ternovsky, Denis (Терновский, Денис) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Uzun, Vasily (Узун, Василий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Shagaida, Natalia (Шагайда, Наталья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Potapova, Alexandra (Потапова, Александра) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Shishkina, Ekaterina (Шишкина, Екатерина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The current stage of regulation of the domestic market of agricultural products using foreign trade restrictions, associated with the growth of world food prices in 2020-2022 solves the problem of preventing the transfer of growth in world prices to domestic prices. The need to assess the impact of the regulatory tools used on the state of agricultural producers forms a hypothesis and determines the relevance of the study. Objective: to assess the impact of foreign trade instruments for regulating the agricultural market on the state of its producers. Object: producers of agricultural products. Subject: production, consumption, export and import of agricultural products. The study was carried out at the Center of Agro-Food Policy, RANEPA, 2022. Methods and data: data from Rosstat, Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, Federal Tax Service of Russia, Federal Customs Service of Russia, Bank of Russia, FAS USDA, CEPII. The data and regulatory documents used, links to which are placed in the text of the study, are relevant as of May 2022. Methods of economic and statistical analysis were used during the study. Results: assessment of the current regulation of the domestic market of agricultural goods and the prerequisites for the use of alternative instruments. Conclusions. The introduced export duty on grain crops performs a fiscal function and, in part, a regulatory function in terms of reducing domestic prices. The direct effect of the introduction of export customs duties is a multiple of the fiscal effect of the current tax system. There are disproportions in the distribution of the amount of collected duties - in regions with developed chains of vertical integration, the cost recovery rate per 1 ton is higher than in regions where the produced grain is fully sold on the market. The level of marketability of production has a significant impact on the amount of support. The transition to determining the amount of subsidies using the maximum level of co-financing of the expenditure obligation of the subject of the federation leads to a significant decrease in the funds received by manufacturers in regions with a high level of budgetary security. Research prospects. The analysis carried out serves as a basis for studying the effectiveness of domestic market regulation instruments, alternative to foreign trade restrictions.
    Keywords: Agriculture, food markets, agri-food policy, tariff regulation, grain damper, subsidies
    JEL: Q11 Q17 Q18
    Date: 2022–11–07
  15. By: Yu, Chen
    Abstract: The article "AI Revolution: Reshaping Global Value Chains for the Future" explores the transformative impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on global value chains (GVCs). It provides an in-depth analysis of the current landscape of traditional GVCs, the role of AI in reshaping value chains, implications and challenges arising from AI adoption, and future outlook and predictions. The article emphasizes the importance of adaptability, innovation, and responsible AI adoption in navigating the evolving landscape of AI-driven value chains.
    Date: 2023–12–29
  16. By: Joachim Wagner (Leuphana Universität Lüneburg, Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre and Kiel Centre for Globalization)
    Abstract: Empirical models for intensive or extensive margins of trade that relate measures of exports to firm characteristics are usually estimated by variants of (generalized) linear models. Usually, the firm characteristics that explain these export margins enter the empirical model in linear form, sometimes augmented by quadratic terms or higher order polynomials, or interaction terms, to take care or test for non-linear relationships. If these non-linear relationships do matter and if they are ignored in the specification of the empirical model this leads to biased results. Researchers, however, can never be sure that all possible non-linear relationships are taken care of in their chosen specifications. This note uses for the first time the Kernel-Regularized Least Squares (KRLS) estimator to deal with this issue in empirical models for margins of exports. KRLS is a machine learning method that learns the functional form from the data. Empirical examples show that it is easy to apply and works well. Therefore, it is considered as a useful addition to the box of tools of empirical trade economists.
    Keywords: Margins of exports, empirical models, non-linear relationships, kernel-regularized least squares, krls
    JEL: F14
    Date: 2024–01
  17. By: Unver, Hamid Akin (Ozyegin University); Ertan, Arhan S. (Bogazici University)
    Abstract: Does acquiring artificial intelligence (A.I.) technologies from the U.S. or China render countries more authoritarian or technologically less advantageous? In this article, we explore to what extent importing A.I./high-tech from the U.S. and/or China goes parallel with importers’ a) democratization or autocratization, b) state capacity, and c) technological progress across a decade (2010–2020). Our work demonstrates that not only are Chinese A.I./high-tech exports not congruous with importers’ democratic backsliding, but autocratization attributed to Chinese A.I. is also visible in importers of U.S. [AH1] A.I. In addition, for most indicators, we do not observe any significant effect of acquiring A.I. from the U.S. or China on importers’ state capacity or technological progress across the same period. Instead, we find that the story has a global inequality dimension as Chinese exports are clustered around countries with a lower GDP per capita, whereas U.S. high-technology exports are clustered around relatively wealthier states with slightly weaker capacity over territorial control. Overall, the article empirically demonstrates the limitations of some of the prevalent policy discourses surrounding the global diffusion of A.I. and its contribution to democratization, state capacity, and technological development of importer nations.
    Date: 2023–12–17
  18. By: Joe, Dong-Hee (Keimyung University); Moon, Seongman (JEONBUK NATIONAL UNIVERSITY); Yoon, Yeo Joon (Pusan National University)
    Abstract: 코로나19 팬데믹으로 기존 공급망의 취약성이 드러난 상황에서 출범한 미국 바이든 행정부는 반도체, 전기차 배터리 등 전략적으로 중요한 산업에서 공급망을 자국 중심으로 재편하고 해외, 특히 중국에 대한 의존도를 낮추려 하고 있다. 이러한 미국정부의 정책에 대한 논의는 풍부하지만, 공급망의 결정 주체인 기업의 대응에 대한 실증적 증거는 부족하다. 본 연구는 가용한 양적자료를 활용하여, 바이든 행정부의 반도체 및 전기차 배터리 공급망 재편 정책에 대한 해당 분야 주요 기업들의 반응에 관한 실증적 근거를 수립하였다. 이를 통하여 본 연구는 한국의 주요 수출산업이자, 한국이 포함된 공급망에서 미국과 중국이 중요한 위치를 차지하는 반도체와 전기차 배터리 산업에서 한국 정부와 기업을 위한 참고자료를 제공한다. The Biden administration in the US was inaugurated in 2021 amid the disruptions in supply chains caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. To address the supply-chain disruptions in a structural manner, the administration embarked on a series of policies aimed to strengthen the country’s supply chains in strategically important industries including semiconductors and batteries for electric vehicles (EVs hereinafter). In particular, the administration aims to reduce its reliance on foreign countries, especially China, and increase self-sufficiency. While discussions on the US government’s policies are abundant in the media and among policymakers, empirical evidence on how firms, who actually designs supply chains, are responding is lacking. Furthermore, existing supply chains are the results of optimization when they were designed, and there is significant uncertainty regarding the future of the US government’s policies on supply chains. It thus remains uncertain whether firms will align with the Biden administration’s intentions. This report aims to establish some empirical evidence on the responses of major firms in the semiconductor and EV battery industries to the Biden administration’s supply-chain policies, based on quantitative data. The semiconductor and EV battery industries are major export industries in Korea, and both the US and China hold crucial positions in the supply chains that involve Korea. The decision-making of major foreign firms is an important factor of consideration in Korean government’s economic security policies and Korean firms’ decisions on their own supply chains. This report aims to provide some reference for them.(the rest omitted)
    Keywords: Economic security; international trade; United States; supply chain reorganization
    Date: 2023–12–26
  19. By: Alan Manning; Sandra McNally; Guglielmo Ventura
    Abstract: Firms have two ways to ensure access to a skilled workforce: they can train their employees to the required level of skill or they can hire workers who are already skilled. Training is costly and an increase in the availability of skilled workers may dissuade firms from providing it. In this paper we study the impact of a large increase in net migration to the UK on workers' participation in vocational training. We use administrative information on publicly-funded workplace training capturing provision of training in nationally-recognised sector-wide general skills. We consider variation in migration inflows across local labour markets using a shift-share IV approach to deal with migrants' endogenous sorting across regions or occupations. Our evidence suggests that higher migration intensity led to a reduction in training participation among workers. But effects are concentrated in types of training that are less valuable and among workers who are less likely to benefit from it (in terms of higher earnings).
    Keywords: migration, training
    Date: 2024–01–10
  20. By: Tullao, Tereso Jr. S.; Rivera, John Paolo R.
    Abstract: This study investigates how the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) can deepen the contributions of trade in services in the Philippine economy through the commitments made and limitations imposed. It reviews and assesses the specific commitments of AFPs joining the RCEP in terms of trade in services, particularly on market access and national treatment. These commitments were compared, and their relevance was evaluated to the needs of the Philippines to determine the benefits it can reap from RCEP. The analysis suggests that the RCEP is a marginal regional trading arrangement that should be viewed as a compilation of previous regional trading agreements for key economies in the Asia-Pacific region. Because of the additional commitments made by the signatory economies, specific opportunities in trade in services may be valuable for the Philippines. However, challenges exist in the form of market access and national treatment limitations, which the Philippines must view as an opportunity to enhance its domestic productivity.
    Keywords: ASEAN;Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership;free trade agreements;market access;national treatment;trade in services;RCEP
    Date: 2024
  21. By: Chatzinikolaou, Dimos (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Kapaltzoglou, Foteini (Feni) (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: We aim at presenting a dynamic interpretation and use of SWOT (evolutionary and correlative) as a strategic evaluation tool in geoeconomics, using the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) as an illustrative example. We identify the arising challenges and hazards by assessing the relative strengths and weaknesses of the RCEP, its participating countries, and the worldwide system. Our findings suggest that applying a correlative SWOT methodology in geoeconomics aids in gaining a well-rounded comprehension of the current stage of the new globalization. It appears that dynamic geoeconomics investigates contrasting opinions and objectives dialectically. We discover that, in comparison to other multilateral institutions, the RCEP’s objectives and aspirations lack substantial socioeconomic depth. This issue presents strategic dangers to the trade bloc’s endurance and socioeconomic viability.
    Keywords: evolutionary SWOT evaluation; geoeconomics; geostrategic planning; global political economy; RCEP; economic development; new globalization
    JEL: B52 F60 P16
    Date: 2023–12–27
  22. By: Nizam, Ahmed Mehedi
    Abstract: Here we argue that the difference between market exchange rate and PPP exchange rate of the local currency unit with respect to the investing one induces gain/loss for the investing firm in terms of ownership of real assets. When the market exchange rate of the local currency unit is greater than its PPP exchange rate, then the foreign investors gain in terms of PPP in the local market, i.e., the foreign investors now get the ownership of more assets than they could probably have in their native land by investing the exact same amount of money. On the other hand, when the market exchange rate is lower than the PPP exchange rate, then the foreign investors incur losses in terms of asset ownership, i.e., they now own less amount of physical assets than they could have alternatively owned if they chose to invest in their native land instead. Building upon the above arguments, here we empirically estimate the regions where US FDI should flow toward in order to reap the maximum benefits arising out of exchange rate differentials and compare it with the actual US investments abroad. The strategy presented here will provide firms a new perspective to gauge their overseas investment opportunities.
    Keywords: FDI; market exchange rate; PPP exchange rate; multinational firms; wealth transfer
    JEL: F3 F4 F41
    Date: 2023–12–28
  23. By: Giuseppe Cavaliere; Graziano Moramarco; Alireza Naghavi
    Abstract: This paper investigates the potential benefits of intellectual property rights (IPR) institutions for international production networks. Using unique data on manufacturer-supplier linkages in the automotive industry, we establish a positive empirical relationship between the productivity and efficiency of manufacturing firms and IPR protection in their suppliers’ locations. Notably, IPRs do not have the same impact on ownership networks, and protection of physical property rights does not generate any improvement in performance. We confirm that the results are not driven by other firm-level characteristics and address potential endogeneity concerns by employing a novel gravity-based IV approach, followed by a GMM analysis.
    Keywords: International production networks, Intellectual property rights, Ownership, Internalization, Automotive industry, Knowledge dissipation, Firm efficiency
    JEL: F21 F23 L14 L25 L62 O34 G32
    Date: 2024–01–16
  24. By: Anna Maria Mayda; Mine Z. Senses; Walter Steingress
    Abstract: Using U.S. county-level data from 1990 to 2010, we study the causal impact of immigration on the provision of local public goods. We uncover substantial heterogeneity across immigrants with different skills, mainly due to the asymmetric impact immigrants have on the per capita tax base and local revenues. In the absence of full insurance through intergovernmental transfers, the changes in per capita revenues are reflected in changes in the provision of local public services: per capita public expenditures decrease with the arrival of low-skilled immigrants and increase with the arrival of high-skilled immigrants. While the two types of immigrants offset each other on average, spatial differences in the population shares of low- and high-skilled immigrants lead to unequal fiscal effects across U.S. counties. We find the estimated impact to differ across various public services and for second-generation immigrants.
    Keywords: Fiscal policy; International topics; Regional economic developments
    JEL: F22 H41 H7 J61 J68 R5
    Date: 2023–11
  25. By: António Afonso; Valérie Mignon; Jamel Saadaoui
    Abstract: We assess the impact of China’s bilateral political relations with three main trading partners—the US, Germany, and the UK—on current account balances and exchange rates, over the 1960Q1-2022Q4 period. Relying on the lag-augmented VAR approach with time-varying Granger causality tests, we find that political relationships with China strongly matter in explaining the dynamics of current accounts and exchange rates. Such relationships cause the evolution of the exchange rate (except in the UK) and the current account; these causal links being time-varying for the US and the UK and robust over the entire period for Germany. These findings suggest that policymakers should account for bilateral political relationships to understand the global macroeconomic consequences of political tensions.
    Keywords: Political relations; time-varying causality; lag-augmented vector autoregression; China.
    JEL: C22 F51 Q41
    Date: 2023
  26. By: Marguerite Obolensky; Marco Tabellini; Charles Taylor
    Abstract: This paper introduces the concept of “climate matching” as a driver of migration and establishes several new results. First, we show that climate strongly predicts the spatial distribution of immigrants in the US, both historically (1880) and more recently (2015), whereby movers select destinations with climates similar to their place of origin. Second, we analyze historical flows of German, Norwegian, and domestic migrants in the US and document that climate sorting also holds within countries. Third, we exploit variation in the long-run change in average US climate from 1900 to 2019 and find that migration increased more between locations whose climate converged. Fourth, we verify that results are not driven by the persistence of ethnic networks or other confounders, and provide evidence for two complementary mechanisms: climate-specific human capital and climate as amenity. Fifth, we back out the value of climate similarity by: i) exploiting the Homestead Act, a historical policy that changed relative land prices; and, ii) examining the relationship between climate mismatch and mortality. Finally, we project how climate change shapes the geography of US population growth by altering migration patterns, both historically and into the 21st century.
    JEL: J15 J61 N31 N32 Q54 R11
    Date: 2024–01
  27. By: Schneider-Strawczynski, Sarah (University of Exeter); Valette, Jérôme (CEPII, Paris)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of media coverage on immigration attitudes. It combines data on immigration coverage in French television with individual panel data from 2013 to 2017 that records respondents' preferred television channel and attitudes toward immigration. The analysis focuses on within-individual variations over time, addressing ideological self-selection into channels. We find that increased coverage of immigration polarizes attitudes, with initially moderate individuals becoming more likely to report extremely positive and negative attitudes. This polarization is mainly driven by an increase in the salience of immigration, which reactivates preexisting prejudices, rather than persuasion effects from biased news consumption.
    Keywords: immigration, media, polarization, salience
    JEL: D8 F22 L82
    Date: 2023–12
  28. By: Ronan Kerbiriou (IDEES - Identité et Différenciation de l’Espace, de l’Environnement et des Sociétés - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IRIHS - Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université, SFLog - Structure Fédérative en Logistique - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université, LISE - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire pour la sociologie économique - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - HESAM - HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: In order to adapt to structural changes in world trade, container ship owners have developed their transport services. Thus, the unit transport capacity of container ships has been multiplied by 3 in the space of 20 years. The maritime transport of containers has developed very speedily and there have been changes in the strategies of shipping companies. These giants of the seas, put into service on the maritime trades linking the worldʹs main production and consumption markets, have led to the repositioning of ships on secondary maritime spaces. This is known as cascading. The objective of this paper is to study the impacts on the ports and the maritime network of the Baltic Sea. For this purpose, we will carry out an analysis of the evolution of container ship calls from 2012 to 2020 (number of calls, capacity offered in calls, ...) followed by a graph analysis to study the evolution of the maritime network.
    Keywords: Containership, Baltic sea, Graph theory, Maritime network
    Date: 2024
  29. By: Cano Christiny, María Verónica; Martínez Pizarro, Jorge
    Abstract: This document presents the results of five studies on the contribution of migration to sustainable development in a selection of Latin American and Caribbean countries (Chile, Costa Rica, Jamaica, Mexico and Peru), within the framework of a project under the twelfth tranche United Nations Development Account entitled “Harnessing the contribution of international migration to sustainable development in Latin American and Caribbean countries”, implemented by ECLAC between 2020 and 2023. Evidence from economic, demographic and cultural studies is compared using quantitative and qualitative methodologies. An analysis is provided with regard to the dissemination of the studies in national workshops, which were delivered using an expository and participatory methodology to encourage relevant actors and decision makers to engage in discussions that would be useful for designing public policies based on evidence and the protection of rights. Lastly, the document includes a list of proposed indicators on the contributions of migration to development, as well as reflections and recommendations to guide and facilitate the work of policymakers on migration.
    Date: 2023–12–08
  30. By: Dullabh, Nitesh
    Abstract: An alignment between country-led ESG indicators and industry materiality assessment topics that coincide with MNEs' specific ESG-related indicators drive impactful, sustainable FDI. This Perspective suggests the creation of country and industry materiality assessments to promote sustainable FDI through an environmental, social, and governance (ESG) lens.
    Date: 2023
  31. By: Tomas Sjostrom (Rutgers University; Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University)
    Abstract: In many scenarios, a protagonist tries to compel a political leader (the antagonist) to cooperate. The protagonist can impose targeted measures (e.g., "smart" sanctions) that hurt the antagonist directly, and comprehensive measures (e.g., trade embargoes) aimed at provoking a popular uprising against the antagonist. However, there is no uprising if the citizens think the antagonist is defending their interests against a hostile protagonist: the rally-'round-the-flag effect. The effectiveness of the protagonist's compellent policy depends on the complex ways in which it influences the rally-`round-the-flag effect. First, there is the direct impact on costs and benefits. Second, the policy may signal the protagonist's level of hostility. Third, the policy influences the antagonist's "political bias", i.e., the misalignment between his interests and those of the representative citizen. We study the optimal mix of targeted and comprehensive measures, and whether the different measures are substitutes or complements.
    Keywords: Conflict, Sanctions
    JEL: F51
    Date: 2023–10–24
  32. By: Gabriel Felbermayr (WIFO); Klaus Friesenbichler; Markus Gerschberger; Peter Klimek; Birgit Meyer (Austrian Institute of Economic Research)
    Abstract: The EU Directive on Corporate Sustainable Due Diligence has sparked fierce debate about the regulations of supply chains. The Directive's objectives are aligned with European values. Assuming that enforcements of social and environmental rules are absent in certain third countries, it privatises compliance costs in complex supply networks. This paper suggests options to make the Directive more effective and efficient. It should exclude countries with a sufficient regulatory system and focus not on the entire network but on supplier-buyer relationships only. Public agencies should set harmonised regulatory standards, interpret the regulations and organise a private certification scheme in which liabilities are assumed by certification companies. The proposed system resembles the market for financial auditors.
    Keywords: EU, Supply Chain, Due Dilligence, Regulation, Firm, International Trade
    Date: 2024–01–15
  33. By: Dodini, Samuel (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Willén, Alexander (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Zhu, Julia Li (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)
    Abstract: We examine if unions narrow or widen labor market gaps between natives and immigrants. We do so by combining rich Norwegian employer-employee matched register data with exogenous variation in union membership obtained through national government policies that differentially shifted the cost to workers to join a union. While union membership significantly improves the wages of natives, its positive effects diminish substantially for Western immigrants and disappear almost entirely for non-Western immigrants. The effect of unions on native wages, and the role of unions in augmenting the native-immigrant wage gap, is nonexistent in competitive labor markets while it is substantial in markets characterized by a high degree of labor concentration. This implies that unions act as a countervailing force to employer power in imperfect markets and can ameliorate the negative labor market effects of labor market concentration, but only for natives. Using unions as a means to empower workers and solve market failures caused by imperfect competition in the labor market, therefore, is likely to lead to a significant increase in societal inequality.
    Keywords: Unions; Migration; Inequality
    JEL: J10 J50 J60
    Date: 2023–12–22
  34. By: Biehler, Nadine; Knapp, Nadine; Koch, Anne
    Abstract: Climate change is leading to increasing displacement and migration, as well as involuntary immobility. The associated challenges and costs have long been neglected in the international climate negotiations. Until now, efforts to open up mobility choices for people negatively affected by climate change have been chronically underfunded. One important starting point for changing this is the explicit reference to human mobility in the new Loss and Damage Fund. However, financial resources and tech­nical support alone are not enough. In order to meet the epochal challenge of climate change-induced human mobility ambitious migration policy solutions are needed, including planned relocation and the consideration of climate change impacts in the management of labour migration.
    Keywords: displacement, migration, climate change, International Climate Negotiations, COP 28, loss und damage, Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
    Date: 2023

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