nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2024‒01‒29
37 papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici, Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Foreign direct investment, trade and economic development: An overview By Blanga-Gubbay, Michael; Rubínová, Stela
  2. Can Multinationals Withstand Growing Trade Barriers? By Mahdi Ghodsi; Michael Landesmann; Nina Vujanović
  3. Third-Country Effects of U.S. Immigration Policy By Agostina Brinatti; Xing Guo
  4. Microfoundation of ICIO Tables through Firm-Level Data: Enhancing GVC Participation and Positioning Indicators By Iaria Fusacchia; Anna Giunta; Marianna Mantuano; Enrico Marvasi; Silvia Nenci; Luca Salvatici; Davide Vurchio
  5. Effect of the timber legality requirement system on lumber trade: focusing on EUTR and Lacey Act By Kim, Ki-Dong; Shim, Gyuhun; Choi, Hyun-Im; Kim, Dong-Hyun
  6. Transfer (mis)pricing of multinational enterprises: evidence from Finland By Viertola, Marika
  7. The transmission of trade shocks across countries: firm-level evidence from the Covid-19 crisis By Konstantins Benkovskis; Jaanika Merikull; Aurelija Proskute
  8. International Sanctions and Emigration By Gutmann, Jerg; Langer, Pascal; Neuenkirch, Matthias
  9. Resolving the complexity puzzle: economic complexity and positions in global value chains jointly explain economic development By Tamás Sebestyén; Erik Braun; Zoltán Elekes
  10. Divided We Fall: Differential Exposure to Geopolitical Fragmentation in Trade By Shushanik Hakobyan; Sergii Meleshchuk; Robert Zymek
  11. Cross-border Patenting, Globalization, and Development By LaBelle, Jesse; Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada; Santacreu, Ana Maria; Yotov, Yoto
  12. Impact of Global Value Chains’ Participation on Manufacturing Employment in China By Ping Hua
  13. Carbon Taxes and Tariffs, Financial Frictions, and International Spillovers By Stefano Carattini; Giseong Kim; Givi Melkadze; Aude Pommeret
  14. Prospects for LNG and Hydrogen Export from Sub-Saharan Africa to the EU By Kohnert, Dirk
  15. Poor Substitutes? Counterfactual Methods in IO and Trade Compared By Keith Head; Thierry Mayer
  16. Assessing Policy Impacts in Digital Services Trade: Implications for the Philippines By Quimba, Francis Mark A.; Moreno, Neil Irwin S.
  17. Immigration, monopsony and the distribution of firm pay By Michael Amior; Jan Stuhler
  18. How do Multinational Firms Impact China’s Technology? The Role of Quid Pro Quo Policy and Technology Spillovers By Ma, Xiao; Zhang, Yiran
  19. Low-cost Chinese goods in Tanzania: the rise of transnational trade routes’ peripheral branches By Sylvain Racaud
  20. Non-traded Gains From Trade - Selection in the Non-Traded Sector: Evidence from Brazil By Rafael Machado Parente; Rowan Shi
  21. The transmission of preferences on immigration from the first to the second generation of immigrants: an analysis of the European Social Survey By Galli, Fausto; Russo, Giuseppe
  22. Institutions, Comparative Advantage, and the Environment By Shapiro, Joseph S
  23. Do Subsidized Export Credits Affect Firms’ Behavior in the FX Market? Micro Evidence from Türkiye By Unal Seven; Ertan Tok
  24. The land use, trade, and global food security impacts of an agroecological transition in the EU By Michele Schiavo; Chantal Le Mouël; Xavier Poux; Pierre-Marie Aubert
  25. Trade, slavery, and state coercion of labor: Egypt during the first globalization era By Saleh, Mohamed
  26. Migrants’ contribution to sustainable development in Jamaica By Mejía, William
  27. Capital Markets, Temporary Migration and Entrepreneurship: Evidence from Bangladesh By Bossavie, Laurent; Goerlach, Joseph-Simon; Özden, Çağlar; Wang, He
  28. An Index for Climate-Induced Migration Uncertainty By Salisu, Sulaiman; Salisu, Afees
  29. Reflection on the implementation of Decision on Implementation of Article 66.2 of the TRIPS Agreement: Incentive for technology transfer to least-developed countries By van Weelde, Jessyca; Wu, Xiaoping; Chiang, Ting-Wei (Alex); Khazin, Bassam Peter
  30. Global economic crises: origins, impacts and possible outcomes By Abdelbaki Noureddine; Rajae Sabhi; Abderrahim Oiskhine; Taghouti Younes
  31. Dedollarization: The Role of Expanded BRICS and the Global South By Khan, Haider
  32. Emigration, Business Dynamics, and Firm Heterogeneity in North Macedonia By Ninghui Li; Thomas Pihl Gade
  33. How and where global food supplies fall short of healthy diets: Past trends and future projections, 1961-2020 and 2010-2050 By Leah Costlow; Anna Herforth; Timothy B. Sulser; Nicola Cenacchi; William A. Masters
  34. Current approaches to improving customs administration in the system of regulation of foreign economic activity By Balandina, Galina (Баландина, Галина)
  35. Challenging global changes in a post-revolutionary context: the case of irrigated olive growing in central Tunisia By Emilie Lavie; Pepita Ould Ahmed; Philippe Cadène; Ismail Chiab; Vassili Kypreos
  36. Global Banks and the Transmission of Shocks across Borders By Deyan Radev
  37. Global political ties and the global financial cycle By Ambrocio, Gene; Hasan, Iftekhar; Li, Xiang

  1. By: Blanga-Gubbay, Michael; Rubínová, Stela
    Abstract: This paper explores the dynamic relationships between foreign direct investment (FDI), international trade, and economic development. First, emphasizing the pivotal role of multinational enterprises (MNEs) - particularly in the context of Global Value Chains (GVCs) - it underscores how FDI and trade are mutually reinforcing. Then, it highlights the convergence of investment and trade policies, pointing out the impact of Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) on trade flows and the increasing inclusion of investment provisions in Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs). Third, examining global FDI trends, it shows that developing and emerging economies are still lagging behind, but they are fast growing in importance. Finally, it draws on a rich empirical literature to show how FDI drives economic development through knowledge spillovers, technology transfer, and export upgrading.
    Keywords: foreign direct investment, international trade, economic development
    JEL: F21 F23 O19
    Date: 2023
  2. By: Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Michael Landesmann (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Nina Vujanović
    Abstract: Multinational enterprises (MNEs) are increasingly dealing with challenges shaped by the new geopolitical and trade environments. Besides traditional tariffs, exporting firms need to comply with regulatory non-tariff measures (NTMs) in the form of technical barriers to trade (TBTs) and sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures. Although trade costs associated with these policy measures affect all firms, implications could be multifaceted for multinationals that base their international activities on exporting and importing and are important for the formation of global supply chains. Applying Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood to the unique Orbis dataset of firms on multinational subsidiaries, we show that NTMs pose a greater challenge to MNEs’ subsidiaries’ activity and performance than tariffs do. High-tech manufacturing subsidiaries of foreign MNEs are particularly vulnerable to these NTMs, as they suffer higher regulatory losses. However, multinational affiliates that have higher productivity, those with full foreign ownership representation, those that are embedded within a larger international network of subsidiaries, and those that are located in trading partners with deep preferential trade agreements can turn these trade challenges to their advantage. Our results have important implications for policy makers regulating trade in goods.
    Keywords: trade, FDI, global supply chains, tariffs, non-tariff barriers, multinational firms
    JEL: F23 F12 F13 F15 C55
    Date: 2024–01
  3. By: Agostina Brinatti; Xing Guo
    Abstract: We study how the effects of U.S. restrictions on skilled immigration affect the Canadian economy and American workers’ welfare. In 2017, the United States implemented a policy that tightened the eligibility criteria for U.S. visas. This was followed immediately by a trend break in the number of skilled immigrant admissions to Canada. We use quasi-experimental variation introduced by this policy over time and across immigrant groups, along with U.S. and Canadian visa applications data, to show that in 2018 visa applications for moving to Canada increased by 30% relative to the period before the restrictions were imposed. We then study how the restrictions affected Canadian firms. We use comprehensive Canadian administrative databases containing the universe of employer-employee linked records, immigration records, and international trade data. We find that Canadian firms that were relatively more exposed to the inflow of immigrants increased production, exports, and employment of Canadian workers. Finally, we study the policy’s impact on American workers by incorporating immigration policy into a multi-sector international trade model. With international trade, the increase in immigration to other countries due to the restrictions affects American wages through U.S. exports and consumption prices. We calibrate the model using our novel data and reduced-form estimates. We find that the welfare gains for American workers targeted for protection by the 2017 policy are up to 25% larger in a closed economy than they are in an open economy with the observed trade levels.
    Keywords: International topics; Labour markets; Recent economic and financial developments; Trade integration
    JEL: F16 F22 J61
    Date: 2023–12
  4. By: Iaria Fusacchia; Anna Giunta; Marianna Mantuano; Enrico Marvasi; Silvia Nenci; Luca Salvatici; Davide Vurchio
    Abstract: This paper provides a methodological contribution to reconciling and integrating the Inter- Country Input-Output accounting framework, commonly used for country-industry Global Value Chain (GVC) analysis, with firm-level data. The goal is to establish robust micro-founded indicators of GVC participation and positioning. Firm-level data on production, and exported and imported (narrowly defined) products are used to more precisely measure bilateral trade flows by intermediate or final use within the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). This integration enhances the accuracy of estimating the sourcing and allocation of imported inputs across sectors, thereby improving the quality of data for calculating trade in value-added indicators. The resulting integrated database is used to compute improved GVC-related indicators, providing insights into the participation and positioning of Italian firms.
    Keywords: Global Value Chains; Inter-Country Input-Output tables; Firm-level data; GTAP
    JEL: C67 C81 E01
    Date: 2024–01
  5. By: Kim, Ki-Dong; Shim, Gyuhun; Choi, Hyun-Im; Kim, Dong-Hyun
    Abstract: This study provides novel insights into the policy effects of timber legality verification methods, specifically Due-diligence (under the European Union Timber Regulation (EUTR)) and Due-care (under the Lacey Act), on coniferous and non-coniferous lumber trade, highlighting their significance in the context of global lumber trade. Timber legality verification plays a pivotal role in the global timber trade. We comprehensively assess the impact of verification methods on coniferous and non-coniferous lumber trade, utilizing two decades of trade data (1997–2017) across approximately 160 countries. We employ the difference-in-differences method based on the gravity model of international trade, utilizing robust export–import data and demographic profiles. Our findings demonstrate that the effect of EUTR on coniferous lumber imports ranged between −0.32% and −0.05%, and that on non-coniferous lumber imports ranged between −0.44% and −0.05%, whereas the effect of the Lacey Act on coniferous lumber imports ranged between −0.93% and −0.09%. Non-coniferous lumber imports remained unaffected. The Voluntary Partnership Agreement (VPA) led to decreased exports to the EU and US. Our findings hold two key implications. First, Due-diligence exhibits more consistent policy effects than Due-care. Second, supporting VPA-participating countries is crucial for facilitating timber trade. These insights inform timber trade policies and sustainable practices.
    Keywords: timber legality requirement system; lumber trad; VPA; gravity model; difference-in-difference
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2023–11–13
  6. By: Viertola, Marika
    Abstract: This paper studies how firms manipulate their transfer prices to shift profit from high tax countries to low tax countries. Using detailed transactiondestination level firm data for years 2013-2019, I find evidence of Finnish multinational enterprises underpricing their exports to low tax destinations. By exploiting variation in corporate income tax rate differences and differences in the ownership of affiliates, I apply a triple difference estimation strategy. I find that a 1 percentage point increase in tax rate difference decreases export unit value by 1.2% among multinational firms exporting to low tax countries. My results suggest firms use transfer pricing as a complement channel, as firms more prone to other profit shifting mechanisms also underprice their exports more. Also, I provide evidence that transfer mispricing is concentrated in exports destined to countries where the multinational’s affiliate has a higher level of economic activity. Where the results with exports are very robust, the results with imports are mixed, suggesting an asymmetrical pattern in transfer pricing.
    Keywords: multinational firms, international corporate taxation, tax avoidance, profit shifting, Business taxation and regulation, F23, H25, H26, fi=Verotus|sv=Beskattning|en=Taxation|,
    Date: 2024
  7. By: Konstantins Benkovskis (Latvijas Banka); Jaanika Merikull (Eesti Pank); Aurelija Proskute (Lietuvos bankas)
    Abstract: This paper studies the margins and heterogeneity of adjustments to trade shocks by estimating how Covid-19 restrictions affected imports and exports. We use data from Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia on foreign trade at the level of the firm and the partner country and at monthly frequency from January 2019 to December 2020. The focus is on the short-term adjustment and on the first wave of the pandemic. We find that the adjustment to the restrictions mostly occurs through the intensive margin, meaning trade values are reduced rather than trade in cer- tain markets or products ceasing. It is further observed that quantity played a more important role in the adjustment process than prices and that both upstream and downstream restrictions played an equally important role in the decline of foreign trade. It is shown that differentiated products that are difficult to replace are responsible for this adjustment pattern.
    Keywords: transmission of shocks, input-output linkages, global value chains, Covid-19, workplace closing
    JEL: F14 F61 D22
    Date: 2024–01–12
  8. By: Gutmann, Jerg; Langer, Pascal; Neuenkirch, Matthias
    Abstract: In this first empirical analysis of how sanctions affect international migration, we apply two estimation strategies, a panel difference-in-differences model and an event study approach. Our dataset covers 79, 791 dyad-year observations, reflecting migration flows from 157 origin countries to 32 (largely OECD) destination countries between 1961 and 2018. The data supports that UN and joint EU-US sanctions increase emigration from target countries by around 20 percent. Our event study results for joint EU-US sanctions imply a gradual increase in emigration over the course of a sanction episode. The impact of UN sanctions on international migration is smaller and less persistent. Moreover, the effects are driven by target countries with fewer political rights and civil liberties, where emigration substitutes for the costly voicing of dissent. Finally, our results do not support systematic gender differences in the effect of sanctions on migration.
    Keywords: Exit, Gender Differences, International Sanctions, Migration, Voice
    JEL: F22 F51 J16 O15
    Date: 2024
  9. By: Tamás Sebestyén; Erik Braun; Zoltán Elekes
    Abstract: It is now well established that complex economies with sophisticated export specialization experience higher income and economic growth levels. A group of countries, including those in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), have pursued a distinctive and arguably successful economic development strategy, focusing on foreign direct investment and embedding in global value chains (GVCs) in manufacturing. However, while these countries now appear to have a high degree of economic sophistication after considerable modernization, they also face significant challenges in catching up with more developed economies in terms of prosperity. In this paper, we propose that considering the coordination of local and non-local capabilities in the same theoretical framework and empirical application helps to resolve this apparent complexity puzzle. Using a panel dataset covering 67 territories and 45 sectors from 1995 to 2018, we first show that measuring countries’ economic complexity based on value-added trade adjusts the resulting country ranking and reduces the measured complexity gap favoring CEE countries. Second, we argue that value-added-based economic complexity needs to be complemented by measures of positions in GVCs to account for access to non-local capabilities. Our results from benchmark regression analyses show that economic complexity and positions in GVCs together offer improved predictive power for income and economic growth. Finally, we show that GVC positions in services are particularly important for economic development but that a related pattern of diversification, whereby CEE countries and factory economies more broadly strengthen their GVC positions in manufacturing activities, is likely to limit their future opportunities for functional upgrading and for achieving highly complex economic structures that would be rooted in local capabilities.
    Keywords: capability base, economic complexity, global value chains, upstreamness, down- streamness, economic development
    Date: 2024–01
  10. By: Shushanik Hakobyan; Sergii Meleshchuk; Robert Zymek
    Abstract: This paper assesses differences in countries’ macroeconomic exposure to trade fragmentation along geopolitical lines. Estimating structural gravity regressions for sector-level bilateral trade flows between 185 countries, we find that differences in individual countries’ geopolitical ties act as a barrier to trade, with the largest effects concentrated in a few sectors (notably, food and high-end manufacturing). Consequently, countries’ exposure via trade to geopolitical shifts varies with their market size, comparative advantage, and foreign policy alignments. Introducing our estimates into a dynamic many-country, many-sector quantitative trade model, we show that geoeconomic fragmentation—modelled as an increased sensitivity of trade costs to geopolitics and greater geopolitical polarization—generally leads to lower trade and incomes. However, emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) tend to see the largest impacts: real per-capita income losses for the median EMDE in Asia are 80 percent larger, and for the median EMDE in Africa 120 percent larger, than for the median advanced economy. This suggests that the costs of trade fragmentation could fall disproportionally on countries that can afford it the least.
    Keywords: Geoeconomic fragmentation; trade barriers; gravity; emerging markets and developing economies
    Date: 2023–12–22
  11. By: LaBelle, Jesse (Northwestern University); Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada (Univerity of Göttingen & Universitat Jaume I); Santacreu, Ana Maria (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Yotov, Yoto (Drexel University)
    Abstract: We build a stylized model that captures the relationships between cross-border patenting, globalization, and development. A byproduct of our theory is a gravity equation for cross-border patents. To test the model’s predictions, we compile a new comprehensive dataset that tracks patents within and between countries and industries, for 1980-2019. The econometric analysis reveals a strong, positive impact of policy and globalization on cross-border patent flows, especially from rich (North) to poor (South) countries. A counterfactual welfare analysis suggests that the increase in patent flows from North to South has benefited both regions, with South gaining more than North post-2000, thus lowering real income inequality in the world.
    Keywords: Cross-border Patents; Gravity; Policy; Globalization; Development
    JEL: F63 O14 O33 O34
    Date: 2023–12–15
  12. By: Ping Hua (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The literature on the employment impact of China's GVCs participation has focused on the substitution effects of Chinese inputs imported by developed countries, while few studies have been made on its domestic job creations. To complete this gap, this study proposes a GVCs augmented labor demand function, which is applied to panel data of 16 Chinese manufacturing industries over the 2005-2014 period using Arellano and Bond's GMM estimator for dynamic panel data model specifications to estimate employment effects of different GVCs participation modes. The obtained positive coefficients of backward linkages show that increasing labor intensity processing and assembly increased employment, while the negative coefficients of China's forward linkages and position mean that producing more capital intensity intermediate inputs to be embodied in third countries' exports and upgrading along to GVCs provided less job opportunities. Thus, the decrease of processing and assembly exports, the growth of intermediated inputs' exports and the position improvement during the studied period have all diminished the manufacturing employment. These results support the ‘mixed-blessing hypothesis' of GVC participation in the literature.
    Keywords: GVCs, Manufacturing employment, China
    Date: 2023–10–16
  13. By: Stefano Carattini; Giseong Kim; Givi Melkadze; Aude Pommeret
    Abstract: Ambitious climate policy, coupled with financial frictions, has the potential to create macrofinancial stability risk. Such stability risk may expand beyond the economy implementing climate policy, potentially catching other countries off guard. International spillovers may occur because of trade and financial channels. Hence, we study the design and effects of climate policies in the world economy with international trade and financial flows. We develop a two-sector, two-country, dynamic general equilibrium model with financial frictions, climate policies, including carbon tariffs, and macroprudential policies. Using the calibrated model, we evaluate spillovers from unilateral domestic carbon pricing to foreign economies and back. We also examine more ambitious climate architectures involving carbon tariffs or a global carbon price. We find that accounting for cross-border financial flows and frictions in credit markets is crucial to understand the effects of climate policies and to guide the implementation of macroprudential policies at the global scale aimed at minimizing transition risk and paving the way for ambitious climate policy.
    Keywords: financial frictions, carbon tax, carbon tariffs, open economy
    JEL: E44 E58 F38 F42 G18 Q58
    Date: 2023
  14. By: Kohnert, Dirk
    Abstract: Since Russia's war in Ukraine, many European countries have been scrambling to find alternative energy sources. One of the answers was to increase imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). By bypassing the use of pipelines from the East and by building LNG terminals, the EU opened up a wider variety of potential suppliers. The Europe-Africa Energy and Climate Partnership provides a framework for a win-win alliance. African countries will be key players in the future, including sub-Saharan countries such as Nigeria, Senegal, Mozambique and Angola. According to the REPowerEU plan, hydrogen partnerships in Africa will enable the import of 10 million tons of hydrogen by 2030, replacing about 18 billion cubic meters of imported Russian gas. Algeria, Niger and Nigeria recently agreed to build a 4, 128-kilometer trans-Saharan gas pipeline that would run through the three countries to Europe. Once completed, the pipeline will transport 30 billion cubic meters of gas per year. The African Coalition for Trade and Investment (ACTING) estimates potential sub-Saharan LNG export capacity at 134 million tonnes of LNG (approximately 175 billion m3) by 2030. Sub-Saharan Africa is also expected to become the main producer of green hydrogen by 2050. However, this market remains to be developed and requires significant expansion of renewable production and water availability. However, the EU countries and companies involved would be well advised to take note of the adoption of much stricter EU greenhouse gas reduction targets for 2030 and the publication of the European Commission's methane strategy. That being said, the EU could risk having more than half of Europe's LNG infrastructure idle by 2030, as European LNG capacity in 2030 exceeds total forecast gas demand, including LNG and pipeline gas. Regardless, it should not be forgotten that African countries want and need to develop their domestic gas markets as a priority, and that export potential depends on this domestic development. However, LNG alone is not enough to ensure the resilience of the system in the event of a supply failure. Alternative energy sources and energy conservation remain essential.
    Keywords: LNG; Hydrogen economy; e-fuels; LNG terminals; Natural gas; Energy security; Gas storage; Sub-Saharan Africa; EU; REPowerEU; Trans-Saharan gas pipeline; emerging markets; Sonatrach; European Green Deal; African Continental Free Trade Agreement; Eni; TotalEnergies; BP; Nigeria; Angola; Mozambique; Tanzania; Senegal; Cameroon; Equatorial Guinea; Namibia; African Studies;
    JEL: E22 E23 F13 F18 F23 F35 F54 L71 L95 N57 N77 O13 Q35 Z13
    Date: 2023–12–09
  15. By: Keith Head (UBC - University of British Columbia, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Thierry Mayer (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPII - Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations internationales, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR)
    Abstract: Constant elasticity of substitution (CES) demand for monopolistically competitive firm-varieties is a standard tool for models in international trade and macroeconomics. Inter-variety substitution in this model follows a simple share proportionality rule. In contrast, the standard toolkit in industrial organization (IO) estimates a demand system in which cross-elasticities depend on similarity in observable attributes. The gain in realism from the IO approach comes at the expense of requiring richer data and greater computational challenges. This paper uses the data generating process of Berry et al. (1995), BLP, who established the modern IO method, to simulate counterfactual trade policy experiments. We use the CES model as an approximation of the more complex underlying demand system and market structure. Although the CES model omits key elements of the data generating process, the errors are offsetting, allowing it to fit BLP-based predictions closely. For aggregate outcomes, it turns out that incorporating non-unitary pass-through matters more than fixing oversimplified substitution patterns.
    Keywords: Constant Elasticity of Substitution, Industrial Organization, Oligopoly, Trade, Tariffs, Counterfactual analysis
    Date: 2023
  16. By: Quimba, Francis Mark A.; Moreno, Neil Irwin S.
    Abstract: Rapid digitalization has become integral to the global economy, connecting markets and introducing new modes of production and trade. With a relatively open digital environment, the Philippines is well-positioned for digital trade integration with its Asia-Pacific neighbors. However, various measures must be taken to prepare for regional integration, some of which are considered low-hanging fruits that the government can quickly adopt. This paper examines the effects of these low-hanging fruits on the bilateral trade of digitally deliverable services. The authors conducted a two-stage regression of the gravity model of trade using data from various sources, allowing for the estimation of country-specific characteristics in the presence of three-way fixed effects. The results reveal that the low-hanging fruits generate heterogeneous effects on digital services trade.
    Keywords: digital services trade;WTO GPA;local loop unbundling;data retention policy;copyright enforcement;regional integration;
    Date: 2023
  17. By: Michael Amior; Jan Stuhler
    Abstract: We argue that the arrival of immigrants with low reservation wages can strengthen the monopsony power of firms. Firms can exploit "cheap" migrant labor by offering lower wages, though at the cost of forgoing potential native hires who demand higher wages. This monopsonistic trade-off can lead to large negative effects on native employment, which exceed those in competitive models, and which are concentrated among low-paying firms. To validate these predictions, we study changes in wage premia and employment across the firm pay distribution, during a large immigration wave in Germany. These adverse effects are not inevitable and may be ameliorated through policies which constrain firms' monopsony power over migrants.
    Keywords: immigration, monopsony, firms
    Date: 2024–01–04
  18. By: Ma, Xiao; Zhang, Yiran
    Abstract: Multinationals play a crucial role in international knowledge diffusion. Given the recent concern that multinationals are departing China, understanding the importance of multinationals for China's technology is also particularly policy-relevant. Using comprehensive patent data from China, we document: (1) multinational affiliates and their foreign parent firms comprise a significant portion of patents filed with China’s patent office; and (2) there are subsequent transfers and spillovers of these technologies to domestic firms. Guided by the empirical findings, we develop a quantitative framework of multinational activities featuring cross-country technology flows, transfers, and spillovers. Quantitatively, we find that without multinational production and knowledge spillovers, China's total technology capital would drop by 36%. Furthermore, due to the externalities of multinationals’ technology investments, subsidizing multinationals in China will be socially beneficial, and reduced knowledge transfers/spillovers largely amplify the negative effects of multinationals' departing China on both China's GDP and technology.
    Keywords: multinational activities; technology transfers; knowledge spillovers
    JEL: F23 O33
    Date: 2023–12–05
  19. By: Sylvain Racaud (LAM - Les Afriques dans le monde - IEP Bordeaux - Sciences Po Bordeaux - Institut d'études politiques de Bordeaux - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Bordeaux - UBM - Université Bordeaux Montaigne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This article illustrates how rural margins and urban-rural relations in southwest Tanzania join up with transnational trade routes for Chinese goods. It examines the trade in low-cost imported goods from China (plastic sandals, cheap jewellery, various fashion accessories, cheap clothing, etc.) that are widely spread in Tanzania up to peripheral countryside. Through the concept of trade route, it contributes to the literature on urban-rural relations in African studies and on "inconspicuous globalisation" by first proposing a reverse perspective, with rural areas viewed as consumption areas of imported products. It then rescales the globalisation analysis by putting urban-rural relations at the heart of local and global interconnections. The article demonstrates that geographically peripheral places and actors, have a real capacity to influence the direction of the global trade route as they combine complementarities between the urban-rural continuum and the topological continuity of networks from local to global. The global trade geography is profoundly influenced by what goes on in its inconspicuous tentacles in upcountry regions such as the Uporoto mountains, where the global trade route relies on the dynamism of local agriculture, the latter increasingly merged with other livelihoods. This is exemplified by the complementarities between trade and agriculture in terms of livelihood, circulation of capital, urban-rural mobility, and links with global scales, which highlight the de-agrarianisation process and the development of a mass consumption society.
    Abstract: Cet article illustre comment des marges rurales et des relations rural-urbain en Tanzanie s'intègrent aux routes transnationales de produits chinois. Il analyse le commerce de produits bon marché importés de Chine (sandales en plastique, bijoux fantaisie, accessoires de mode, vêtements bon marché, etc.) largement accessibles en Tanzanie, jusqu'aux périphéries rurales. A partir du concept de route marchande, l'article contribue au champ des ‘mondialisations discrètes' et à la littérature sur les relations rural-urbain en études africaines en proposant une perspective inversée, où les espaces ruraux sont appréhendés comme des espaces de consommation d'objets importés. Il envisage l'analyse de la globalisation en situant les relations rural-urbain à l'interface du local et de connexions globales. L'article montre que des lieux et des acteurs géographiquement périphériques ont le pouvoir d'influencer la direction de routes marchandes globales en combinant des complémentarités du continuum urbain-rural et la continuité topologique du réseau, du local au global. La route marchande globale est profondément marquée par ce qui se passe dans ses ramifications discrètes telles les montagnes Uporoto, où la route globale s'appuie sur le dynamisme de l'agriculture locale, laquelle est de plus en plus combinée avec d'autres activités. Cela se traduit par des complémentarités entre le commerce et l'agriculture en matière de moyens d'existence, de circulation du capital, de mobilités rural-urbain et de liens avec d'autres échelles. Cela souligne la désagrarianisation et le développement d'une société de consommation de masse.
    Keywords: trade route, Chinese goods, urban-rural links, rural markets, network, mobility, Tanzania
    Date: 2022
  20. By: Rafael Machado Parente; Rowan Shi
    Abstract: We investigate how trade shocks affect the allocation of labor across plants at the local labor market level. Using Brazil’s import liberalization as a quasi-natural experiment, we uncover a new margin for the gains from trade: the reallocation of labor from smaller to larger producers in the non-traded sector. We find that in response to liberalization, larger non-traded producers self-select into importing, expanding as they gain access to inputs from abroad. We then develop a parsimonious model of heterogeneous producers incorporating this mechanism. The theory is consistent with the empirical findings and show that reallocation among non-traded producers is welfare-enhancing. In contrast, this reallocation effect disappears when all nontraded producers make the same importing decision.
    Keywords: Gains from trade; trade liberalization; non-traded sector; firm Selection
    Date: 2023–12–22
  21. By: Galli, Fausto; Russo, Giuseppe
    Abstract: This article studies the immigrants’ attitude towards immigration with special emphasis on the transition from the first to the second generations. We use European Social Survey data for the 2002-2020 period, which include many questions on the attitude to immigration, in order to estimate the impact of the immigrant status through ordered probit models. We find that first-generation immigrants support immigration more than natives. We also find that evidence of generational convergence towards natives’ opinions is limited. This result suggests that the effect of the immigration experience on preferences is persistent across generations.
    Keywords: immigrants, immigrant integration, attitudes/view towards immigration, intraEU migration
    JEL: J11 J61 Z13
    Date: 2023–06–06
  22. By: Shapiro, Joseph S
    Abstract: This paper proposes that strong financial, judicial, and labor market institutions provide comparative advantage in clean industries, and thereby improve a country’s environmental quality. Five complementary tests support this hypothesis. First, industries that depend on institutions are disproportionately clean. Second, strong institutions increase relative exports in clean industries, even conditional on environmental regulation and factor endowments. Third, an industry’s complexity helps explain the link between institutions and clean goods. Fourth, a quantitative general equilibrium model indicates that strengthening a country’s institutions decreases its pollution through relocating dirty industries abroad, though increases pollution in other countries. Fifth, cross-country differences in the composition of output between clean and dirty industries explain more of the global distribution of emissions than differences in the techniques used for production do. The comparative advantage that strong institutions provide in clean industries gives one under-explored reason why developing countries have relatively high pollution levels.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, institutions, comparative advantage, pollution
    Date: 2024–01–11
  23. By: Unal Seven; Ertan Tok
    Abstract: Exports have direct and indirect contributions to growth and welfare; therefore, countries have been implementing various policies to boost exports. Among these policies, export credit remains an important policy instrument. Through its export-led growth strategy, Türkiye intends to increase its exports by subsidizing exporters via a rediscount credit scheme, a form of subsidized export credit, that is mostly financed by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT). In this paper, we aim to answer whether benefiting from such cost-effective financial support causes unintended consequences. We focus on the foreign exchange (FX) purchases of treated firms and estimate whether they purchase more FX than their non-treated pairs during the treatment period. Using firm-level data, we employ a propensity score matching (PSM) difference-in-differences (DD) estimator. Focusing only on firms that used rediscount credit for the first time after June 2020, we find evidence of positive and significant impact of using rediscount credits on the treated firms’ net FX purchases. However, this impact significantly diminishes after the CBRT regulations on the conditions for allocation and repayment of rediscount credits came into effect. We also find that being net importer increases the sensitivity of net FX purchase to using rediscount credit. We show that the effect of using rediscount credits on net FX purchase is higher in SMEs than in large firms. Our results suggest that directing rediscount credits from net importers to net exporters and preventing unintended uses through efficient regulations may increase the positive contribution of rediscount credit programs to financial stability.
    Keywords: Rediscount credits, Propensity score matching, Difference-in-differences, Türkiye
    JEL: F13 F31 O24 E58
    Date: 2023
  24. By: Michele Schiavo (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Chantal Le Mouël (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Xavier Poux (ASCA - Partenaires IRSTEA - IRSTEA - Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture, IDDRI - Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris); Pierre-Marie Aubert (IDDRI - Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris)
    Abstract: The need for an agroecological transition is regularly advocated by many actors and policymakers on the European scene, but many questions arise regarding the potential consequences that this transition may have on the rest of the world. Using a world biomass balance model, in this paper we show that a deep agroecological transition in the EU, if accompanied by a shift of EU food regimes towards more plant-based diets, is not detrimental to global food security. Without increasing its cropland areas, the EU can maintain the same level of exported calories as in a business-as-usual scenario while reducing its import needs. This result holds true also in an alternative scenario in which the other world regions adopt agroecological production methods and healthier diets. In contrast, an agricultural transition taking place in the EU without a change of EU food regimes, would drastically increase EU food dependence on global markets and contribute to the expansion of agricultural land in the rest of the world.
    Keywords: Agroecology, Agricultural transition, DIETS, Modelling, Organic agriculture, TYFA
    Date: 2023–08–24
  25. By: Saleh, Mohamed
    Abstract: I investigate the effects of trade on labor coercion under the dual-coercive institutions of slavery and state coercion. Employing novel data from Egypt, I document that the cotton boom in 1861–1865 increased both imported slaveholdings of the rural middle class, and state coercion of local workers by the elite. As state coercion reduced wage employment, it reinforced the demand for slaves among the rural middle class. While the abolition of slavery in 1877 increased wages, it did not affect state coercion or wage employment. I discuss the political effects of the abolition as a potential explanation for these findings.
    Keywords: slavery; state corecion; trade; abolition; cotton
    JEL: F16 N35
    Date: 2023–12–26
  26. By: Mejía, William
    Abstract: The study focuses on migrants’ contributions to Jamaica’s development from the ECLAC perspective on the contributions of international migration to sustainable development. Improving understanding of these contributions will enhance capacity to formulate and implement public policies and development plans that take into account the opportunities and challenges of international migration in countries of origin or return, transit and destination, in compliance with the commitments set forth in international and multilateral agreements, such as the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration, the Montevideo Consensus on Population and Development and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The first chapter analyses recent population trends, focusing on population changes between 1990 and 2020 and highlighting the role of migration. The second addresses the current contributions of migrants to sustainable development. Lastly, the document presents a series of conclusions drawn from the study.
    Date: 2023–12–14
  27. By: Bossavie, Laurent (World Bank); Goerlach, Joseph-Simon (Bocconi University); Özden, Çağlar (World Bank); Wang, He (World Bank)
    Abstract: This paper examines international temporary migration as an intermediary step among aspiring entrepreneurs to accumulate the needed capital when they face credit constraints at home. The analysis is based on a representative dataset of lifetime employment histories of return migrants from Bangladesh. After establishing the credit constraints that potential entrepreneurs face, the paper shows that non-agricultural self-employment rates are significantly higher among returning migrants – over half versus around 20% of non-migrants. Most migrants transition into self-employment by using their savings from abroad as the main source of financing. The paper then offers, for the first time, a detailed account of the financial costs and benefits of international migration. Our findings suggest that temporary migration can contribute to structural transformation of lower-income countries by enabling credit-constrained workers to enter into non-agricultural entrepreneurship.
    Keywords: temporary migration, credit constraints, risky investment, entrepreneurship
    JEL: J61 O15
    Date: 2023–12
  28. By: Salisu, Sulaiman; Salisu, Afees
    Abstract: Climate change has had a significant impact on the world, and many efforts have been made to mitigate its risks. This study aims to create a new index that measures the uncertainty surrounding migration due to climate change. To do this, the study uses a variety of international newspapers with a global readership. Although climate change has increasingly spurred migration decisions in vulnerable areas, there is still a lack of quantitative research that explores this link. This is the contribution of our study. The evidence from the index shows an upward trend in climate-induced migration decisions, especially in the last two decades, which supports the motivation behind the study. Our index has several practical applications that can be useful for future research agendas.
    Keywords: News; Climate change; International migration; Uncertainty
    JEL: C15
    Date: 2023–12–08
  29. By: van Weelde, Jessyca; Wu, Xiaoping; Chiang, Ting-Wei (Alex); Khazin, Bassam Peter
    Abstract: Technology transfer is deeply embedded in the WTO Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS Agreement). Several provisions address technology transfer, which constitute an essential part of the efforts made by the TRIPS negotiators to strike a balance between the advancement of technological innovation and the promotion of transfer and dissemination of technology. Article 66.2 specifically obligates developed country Members to provide incentives to enterprises and institutions in their territories to promote and encourage technology transfer to least-developed country (LDC) Members in order to enable them to create a sound and viable technological base. This paper summarizes the WTO TRIPS Council's work on the implementation of Article 66.2 from 2018 to 2020, including the implementation of a reporting mechanism for developed country Members' programmes established by the TRIPS Council and the TRIPS Council's review of the ensuing reports, and annual Workshops convened to enhance practical dialogue on technology transfer under this provision. In particular, it provides an analytical review of 708 programmes broken down into seven categories of technology, namely agriculture and food; environment and climate change; information and communication technology (ICT); public health and pharmaceuticals; intellectual property; business, trade and finance; and education and social sciences. The paper also reports on a survey of LDC Members which identified as priority areas for technology transfer as agriculture and food; environment and climate change; ICT; and public health and pharmaceuticals. The paper concludes by drawing on lessons learned from the past 25 years' experiences and reflecting on prospects for future work.
    Keywords: technology transfer, LDCs, Article 66.2, TRIPS, incentives, agriculture, environment, public health, ICT, SDGs, knowledge transfer
    JEL: F13 O3 O31 O34 O38
    Date: 2023
  30. By: Abdelbaki Noureddine (ENCGK - ENCG University Ibn Tofail of Kenitra, Morocco); Rajae Sabhi (ENCGK - ENCG University Ibn Tofail of Kenitra, Morocco); Abderrahim Oiskhine (ENCGK - ENCG University Ibn Tofail of Kenitra, Morocco); Taghouti Younes (ENCGK - ENCG University Ibn Tofail of Kenitra, Morocco)
    Abstract: The article takes an in-depth look at the sources of global economic crises, highlighting their complexity and link to financial and trade issues such as inappropriate economic policies, growing public and private debt, trade imbalances, commodity price variations and financial crises. The crisis generated by the COVID-19 pandemic has had major repercussions on public health and the global economy, encompassing trade and finance. The essential aim of this article is to provide a detailed and thoughtful account of the various approaches that can be taken to mitigate the adverse effects of such crises. Reforming financial systems is central to these measures, while promoting a sustainable economy is equally crucial. The article highlights the need for concerted action to resolve the complex challenges posed by global economic crises, from a global and forward-looking perspective.
    Abstract: L'article examine en profondeur les sources des crises économiques mondiales, mettant en lumière leur complexité et leur lien avec des enjeux financiers et commerciaux tels que des politiques économiques inappropriées, une dette croissante publique et privée, des déséquilibres commerciaux, des variations des prix des matières premières et des crises financières. La crise générée par la pandémie de COVID-19 a engendré d'importantes répercussions sur la santé publique et l'économie mondiale, englobant le commerce et les finances. L'objectif essentiel de cet article consiste à exposer de manière détaillée et réfléchie les diverses approches envisageables pour atténuer les effets néfastes de telles crises. Parmi les mesures prises, la réforme des systèmes financiers occupe une place centrale, tandis que la promotion d'une économie durable s'avère tout aussi cruciale. L'article met en évidence la nécessité de ces actions concertées pour résoudre les défis complexes nés des crises économiques mondiales, et ce, dans une perspective globale et prospective
    Keywords: Trade, World economy, Crisis, Covid-19, Finance
    Date: 2023–07–28
  31. By: Khan, Haider
    Abstract: Abstract: Dedollarization is accelerating. Inter alia, the US-led western sanctions have accelerated the thinking about dedollarization and some tentative actions in the BRICS countries in particular. Further expansion of BRICS has strengthened these tendencies. With support from the other countries in the Global South, dedollarization will receive continuing impetus. It is one of the main theses of this paper that eventually the US will be forced to settle down to its substantial but reduced role in the Global Economy while a multipolar order replaces the brief ---in historical terms--- the dollar-based US hegemony during the cold war and dollar dominance during the unipolar two decades from 1991 to 2010. However, the pace of this evolution will depend on international politics and strategic foreign policy moves by the major powers and coalitions in both the Global North and the Global South. Thus a historical nodal point has arisen with the advent of the tragic war in Ukraine and the US hostilities towards China. The sanctions regimes of the US-led Global North have compounded the instabilities in the existing system. As the world system moves towards multipolarity, an opportunity exists for the Global South to construct through partial delinking from the post WW2 financial architecture under US hegemony. Construction of an expanded BRICS-led supra regional financial architecture along with regional financial architectures will be a strategic step forward. Within two decades dedollarization will become a reality. Finally, a new non-aligned movement and construction of genuinely pro-people development programs can also become a reality.
    Keywords: Dedollarization, Regional and Cross-Regional Financial Architectures, New Global Financial Architecture, CBDCs, Ukraine, multipolarity, BRICS, expanded BRICS or BRICS-plus, China, Russia, The Global South
    JEL: E58 F33 F50
    Date: 2023–12–21
  32. By: Ninghui Li; Thomas Pihl Gade
    Abstract: High emigration rates are a challenge in the Western Balkans. High emigration rates might lead to inadequate skilled labor and affect firm creation, capital formation, and economic convergence. The 2021 North Macedonia census reveals that more than 12.4% of North Macedonians live abroad. To assess the consequences, we estimate the impact of emigration on the number of firms and capital formation. Business dynamics can affect emigration reversely. To alleviate the endogeneity bias, we use a shift-share instrument with the historical diaspora networks and destination countries’ GDP growth rate as a source of exogenous variations. Our results show that (1) In the short run, a 1 percentage point increase in the emigration rate leads to a 2.91% decrease in the number of firms in the area of origin; (2) The long-run effects of emigration on the number of firms are less negative than the short-run impacts; (3) Emigration mainly reduces the number of micro and small firms; (4) Emigration affects the number of firms and capital formation more in the industrial sector than the other sectors, through the skilled labor shortage channel. This paper contributes to the literature on emigration and provides implications and policy considerations for developing countries, where high emigration rates are prevalent.
    Keywords: Emigration; Labor market; Firm dynamics; Capital formation; North Macedonia; Panel data.
    Date: 2023–12–22
  33. By: Leah Costlow; Anna Herforth; Timothy B. Sulser; Nicola Cenacchi; William A. Masters
    Abstract: Most of the world still lacks access to sufficient quantities of all food groups needed for an active and healthy life. This study traces historical and projected changes in global food systems toward alignment with the new Healthy Diet Basket (HDB) used by UN agencies and the World Bank to monitor the cost and affordability of healthy diets worldwide. We use HDB as a standard to measure adequacy of national, regional and global supply-demand balances, finding substantial but inconsistent progress toward closer alignment with dietary guidelines, with large global shortfalls in fruits, vegetables, and legumes, nuts, and seeds, and large disparities among regions in use of animal source foods. Projections show that additional investments in the supply of agricultural products would modestly accelerate improvements in adequacy where shortfalls are greatest, revealing the need for complementary investments to increase purchasing power and demand for under-consumed food groups especially in low-income countries.
    Date: 2024–01
  34. By: Balandina, Galina (Баландина, Галина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the most important tools of modern customs administration: authorized economic operator, customs audit, financial guarantees for payment of customs duties. Based on the analysis carried out and taking into account international practice, proposals have been developed for the further development of these institutions.
    Date: 2022–11–17
  35. By: Emilie Lavie (PRODIG (UMR_8586 / UMR_D_215 / UM_115) - Pôle de recherche pour l'organisation et la diffusion de l'information géographique - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité, LAM - Les Afriques dans le monde - IEP Bordeaux - Sciences Po Bordeaux - Institut d'études politiques de Bordeaux - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Bordeaux - UBM - Université Bordeaux Montaigne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Pepita Ould Ahmed (CESSMA UMRD 245 - Centre d'études en sciences sociales sur les mondes africains, américains et asiatiques - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Inalco - Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales - UPCité - Université Paris Cité); Philippe Cadène (CESSMA UMRD 245 - Centre d'études en sciences sociales sur les mondes africains, américains et asiatiques - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Inalco - Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales - UPCité - Université Paris Cité); Ismail Chiab (PRODIG (UMR_8586 / UMR_D_215 / UM_115) - Pôle de recherche pour l'organisation et la diffusion de l'information géographique - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité, Université de Sfax - University of Sfax); Vassili Kypreos (UMR ART-Dev - Acteurs, Ressources et Territoires dans le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UM - Université de Montpellier, PRODIG (UMR_8586 / UMR_D_215 / UM_115) - Pôle de recherche pour l'organisation et la diffusion de l'information géographique - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité)
    Abstract: Research on agricultural development models shows that local applications of global models are adapted both to the globalisation of agricultural markets and to climate change. The circulation of such models is also linked to local political and historical contexts. However, few studies have focused on abrupt changes in economic policies, such as those following the Arab Spring. We propose to study the evolution of olive-growing development policies in post-revolutionary Tunisia. In order to mitigate both market- and climate-induced vulnerabilities and to make the sector more competitive with major olive producers, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) guidelines recommend intensification of Tunisian olive farming through irrigation. Our research makes two main claims: (1) the change in the production model towards irrigation aims to respond to globalisation, climate change and national policies. (2) Some exporters are involved at several levels of the value chain. This research conducted by geographers and economists analyses the mutations of the olive sector towards irrigation, using a double theoretical framework on the circulation of agricultural development models, with a political-ecology approach. This paper contributes to a growing body of research on the relationship between commodity production networks and water studies.
    Keywords: Global Change, Agriculture, Olive oil, Tunisia
    Date: 2023
  36. By: Deyan Radev (Sofia University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration)
    Abstract: In this study, we explore the impact of solvency and wholesale funding shocks on the lending behavior of 84 OECD parent banks and their 375 foreign subsidiaries. Our findings indicate that solvency shocks play a more significant role than wholesale funding shocks in influencing subsidiary lending. Moreover, we observe that solvency shocks have a heightened impact on larger subsidiary banks operating in mature markets with limited growth opportunities. These results carry substantial theoretical and policy implications, contributing to a deeper understanding of how solvency and wholesale shocks traverse borders and affect the lending dynamics of global banking entities.
    Keywords: Commercial banks, global banks, wholesale shocks, solvency shocks, transmission, internal capital markets
    JEL: G01 G21 G28
    Date: 2024–01
  37. By: Ambrocio, Gene; Hasan, Iftekhar; Li, Xiang
    Abstract: We study the implications of forging stronger political ties with the US on the sensitivities of stock returns around the world to a global common factor - the global financial cycle. Using voting patterns at the United Nations as a measure of political ties with the US along with various measures of the global financial cycle, we document evidence indicating that stronger political ties with the US amplify the sensitivities of stock returns in developing countries to the global financial cycle. We explore several channels and find that a deepening of financial linkages along with a reduction in information asymmetries and an amplification of sentiment are potentially important factors behind this result.
    Keywords: Political Ties, Global Financial Cycle, International Spillovers, Stock returns
    JEL: E44 F30 F50 G15
    Date: 2024

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