nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2024‒01‒08
eighty-two papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici, Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Services in Global Competition By Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki; Kuosmanen, Natalia; Pajarinen, Mika; Ylhäinen, Ilkka
  2. How far has globalization gone? a tale of two regions By Rodolfo Campos; Samuel Pienknagura; Jacopo Timini
  3. Winners and Losers from the U.S.-China Trade War By Alicia H. Dang; Kala Krishna; Yingyan Zhao
  4. Broken Relationships: De-Risking by Correspondent Banks and International Trade By Lea Borchert; Ralph De Haas; Karolin Kirschenmann; Alison Schultz
  5. Impact of Temporary Trade Barriers within APEC: Evidence from Korea By Lee, Seungrae
  6. The carbon footprint of global trade imbalances By Mahlkow, Hendrik; Wanner, Joschka
  7. Exporting processed food: Sri Lanka’s experience in the Asian context* By Prema-chandra Athukorala1, Jeevika Weerahewa2 and Navaratne Bandara Kandangama2
  8. Staggered difference-in-differences in gravity settings: Revisiting the effects of trade agreements By Nagengast, Arne J.; Yotov, Yoto
  9. Quantifying Non-Tariff Barriers and Assessing their impacts on India’s key Agricultural exports using a Gravity Model By Saarthak Sharma
  10. Tickets to the Global Market: First US Patent Awards and Chinese Firm Exports By Robin Kaiji Gong; Yao Amber Li; Kalina Manova; Stephen Teng Sun; Kalina B. Manova
  11. MATS Report: "Year Three of Russia’s Aggression. Production and Trade Risks for Global Food Security." By Häberli, Christian; Kostetsky, Bogdan
  12. Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Political Stability ? Evidence from Developing Economies By Assi Okara
  13. Is the global economy fragmenting? By Blanga-Gubbay, Michael; Rubínová, Stela
  14. The Impact of AI and Cross-Border Data Regulation on International Trade in Digital Services: A Large Language Model By Ruiqi Sun; Daniel Trefler
  15. Quantifying a vertical differentiation trade model By Evgenii Monastyrenko; Pierre M. Picard
  16. Building Stronger Economic Institutions in Developing Countries, the Role of FDI By Assi Okara
  17. Does international trade promote economic growth? Europe, 19th and 20th centuries By Bajo-Rubio, Oscar; Ramos-Herrera, María del Carmen
  18. Investigating the Role of Youth in Gender Equitable and Inclusive Trade By Marize Abdou Kalliny; Nadia Hasham; Modesta Adjoa Nsowaa-Adu; Regina Kaseka
  19. Does Trade Uncertainty Affect Bank Lending? By Ricardo Correa; Julian di Giovanni; Linda S. Goldberg; Camelia Minoiu
  20. Trade Between WAEMU And EU Countries Ante-Brexit : Lessons From A Gravity Model By Coulibaly Niénéyéri Mamadou
  21. El Desarrollo Sostenible en los Acuerdos de Inversión Suscritos por Chile (Sustainable Development in Chile‘s Investment Agreements) By Polanco, Rodrigo
  22. In search of factors that explain the impact of climate change on international trade. By Alejandra Martínez – Martínez; Silviano Esteve – Pérez; Salvador Gil – Pareja; Rafael Llorca - Vivero
  23. Better together: How digital connectivity and regulation reduce trade costs By Bellucci, Chiara; Rubínová, Stela; Piermartini, Roberta
  24. Institutions, Development, and Patterns of Trade By Andrea Greppi; Alireza Naghavi
  25. Economic Impact of Tennessee Forest Product Exports in 2022 By Muhammad, Andrew; Menard, R. Jamey; Hughes, David W.; Clark, Harrison; Taylor, Adam
  26. WTO 서비스 국내규제 규범의분석과 시사점(Analysis of WTO Discipline on Services Domestic Regulations and Its Policy Implications) By Kim, June Dong; Koh, Joon Sung; Kang, Jungu
  27. Revisiting the Impacts of COVID-19 Government Policies and Trade Measures on Trade Flows: A Focus on RCEP Nations By Nathapornpan Piyaareekul Uttama
  28. Import Competition and Firm-Level CO2 Emissions: Evidence from the German Manufacturing Industry By Jakob Lehr
  29. Pandemic-Era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers By Julian di Giovanni; Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan; Alvaro Silva; Muhammed A. Yildirim; Muhammed Ali Yildirim
  30. Final Report of USMCA Arbitration, US – Automobile Rules of Origin ï¼ Failure of an attempt to impose a condition that was not obtained through USMCA negotiations ï¼ (Japanese) By UMEJIMA Osamu
  31. Neoclassical growth in an interdependent world By Benny Kleinman; Ernest Liu; Stephen J. Redding; Motohiro Yogo
  32. Free Trade Agreements with Environmental Provisions Between Asymmetric Countries: Transfer of Clean Technology and Enforcement By Hideo Konishi; Minoru Nakada; Akihisa Shibata
  33. Containing Tariff Evasion By Clement Anne; Cyril Chalendard; Ana Fernandes; Bob Rijkers; Vincent Vicard; Ana Margarida Fernandes
  34. Trade policies to promote the circular economy: A case study of the plastics value chain By Evdokia Moïsé; Enxhi Tresa
  35. The Impact of COVID-19 on the Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Sustainable Development By Waliu O. Shittu; Gazi M. Hassan; Frank G. Scrimgeour
  36. Extended producer responsibility and trade flows in waste: The case of batteries By Marco Compagnoni; Marco Grazzi; Fabio Pieri; Chiara Tomasi
  37. Monthly Report No. 6/2023 By Artem Kochnev; Bernhard Moshammer; Jan Muś; Waltraut Urban
  38. How China’s African Swine Fever Outbreaks Affected Global Pork Markets By Gale, Fred; Kee, Jennifer; Huang, Joshua
  39. An Analysis on the Regional Integration of Northeast Asia by Developing NARCI (Northeast Asia Regional Cooperation Index) By Lee, Seungrae; Park, Jehoon; Park, Sung-Hoon
  40. Trade, Income and Heterogeneous Labor Supply By Abbate Nicolás; Depetris Chauvin Nicolas; Velasquez Agustin
  41. Foreign Nurses and Hospital Quality: Evidence from Brexit By Castro-Pires, Henrique; Mello, Marco; Moscelli, Giuseppe
  42. Unequal Expenditure Switching: Evidence from Switzerland By Raphael Auer; Ariel Burstein; Sarah Lein; Jonathan Vogel; Raphael A. Auer; Sarah Marit Lein; Jonathan E. Vogel
  43. Unveiling structure and dynamics of global digital production technology networks: A new digital technology classification and network analysis based on trade data By Andreoni, Antonio; Anzolin, Guendalina; Labrunie, Mateus; Spinola, Danilo
  44. Foreign Capital and Economic Growth: Evidence from Bangladesh By Ummya Salma; Md. Fazlul Huq Khan; Md. Masum Billah
  45. Robotizing to Compete? Firm-level Evidence By Paulo Bastos; Lisandra Flach; Klaus Keller
  46. Investment Treaties and the Replacement of Stranded Investment By Horn, Henrik; Sanctuary, Mark
  47. Recent Trends in Unauthorized Crossing Attempts at the Southwestern U.S. Border By Subhayu Bandyopadhyay; Hoang Le
  48. The Consequences of the 2017 US International Tax Reform: A Survey of the Evidence By Dhammika Dharmapala
  49. Anticipation Effects of EU Accession on Immigrants' Labour Market Outcomes By Dalmazzo, Alberto; Leombruni, Roberto; Razzolini, Tiziano
  50. Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine: revealers of the vulnerability of international supply chains? By Bruno Durand
  51. Rethinking revealed comparative advantage with micro and macro data By Hanwei Huang; Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano
  52. Comparing scenarios of the carbon regulation for the BRICS and EAEU economies using the GTAP-E model By Davydova Altana
  53. The EU’s Competitive Advantage in the 'Clean-Energy Arms Race' By Dahlström, Petter; Lööf, Hans; Sjöholm, Fredrik; Stephan, Andreas
  54. Does Financial or Trade Integration Cause Instability? Evidence from Emerging and ASEAN Economies By Rakesh Padhan; K.P. Prabheesh
  55. Privatization in an International Mixed Oligopoly: the Role of Product Differentiation under Price Competition By Marco Catola; Alessandra Chirco; Marcella Scrimitore
  56. Shipping Cost Uncertainty, Endogenous Regime Switching and the Global Drivers of Inflation By Christina Anderl; Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  57. China-Russia energy interdependence and the hybridization of the governance of international hydrocarbon markets By Catherine Locatelli; Mehdi Abbas
  58. Companies’ Resilience in the Midst of Crises By Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki; Deschryvere, Matthias; Koski, Heli; Kuusi, Tero
  59. From Refugees to Citizens: Labor Market Returns to Naturalization By Francesco Fasani; Tomamso Frattini; Maxime Pirot
  60. A comment on Xu (2022). Reshaping Global Trade: The Immediate and Long-Term Effects of Bank Failures By Bérard, Guillaume; Freitas, Dimitria; Verma, Priyam
  61. Sanctions, Co-sanctions, and Counter-sanctions: A Multilateral, Evolutionary Game among Three Global Powers By Zhou, Peng; Guo, Dong
  62. Beyond the North-South binarity: Social neutrality as a commodity ethic in globalisation By Adolphe Badiel
  63. Are Immigrants More Innovative? Evidence from Entrepreneurs By Kyung Min Lee; Mee Jung Kim; J. David Brown; John S. Earle; Zhen Liu
  64. Attracting Global Talents: Bringing Digital Nomads and the Highly Skilled into ASEAN By Amelia Litania; Giulia Ajmone Marsan
  65. Patterns of Cross-Border Venture Capital Flows in Europe By Pierfederico Asdrubali
  66. On the (de)stabilization role of protectionism: Theory and evidence By Nastasia Henry; Alain Venditti
  67. Capital Markets, Temporary Migration and Entrepreneurship: Evidence from Bangladesh By Laurent Bossavie; Joseph-Simon Görlach; Çağlar Özden; He Wang
  68. How Do People Form the Perception of a Link between Foreign Exchange Rates and Exports? The Experience of Japan in the 1920s By Mariko Hatase
  69. Global income polarization: Relative and absolute perspectives By Vanesa Jorda; Miguel Niño-Zarazúa; Laurence Roope; Finn Tarp
  70. Income Inequality and External Wealth of Nations By Montes Rojas Gabriel; Carrera Jorge; Panigo Demián; Solla Mariquena; Toledo Fernando
  71. Estimating the wage premia of refugee immigrants: Lessons from Sweden By Baum, Christopher F.; Lööf, Hans; Stephan, Andreas; Zimmermann, Klaus F.
  72. On the time-varying impact of China’s bilateral political relations on its trading partners (1960–2022) By António Afonso; Valérie Mignon; Jamel Saadaoui
  73. High-tech component import substitution as an important factor in national security By Dariya, Akimkina; Oleg, Khrustalev; Evgeniy, Khrustalev
  74. Environmental Policies and Stagnation in a Two-Country Economy By Masako Ikefuji; Yoshiyasu Ono
  75. Corporate Debt Structure with Home and International Currency Bias By Matteo Maggiori; Brent Neiman; Jesse Schreger
  76. Supply Chain Constraints and Inflation By Diego Comin; Robert C. Johnson; Callum J. Jones
  77. Immigration and the Labor Market in the Post-Pandemic Recovery By Kristin F. Butcher; Lucas Cain; Camillo Garcia-Jimeno; Ryan Perry
  78. What Explains Global Inflation By Jongrim Ha; M. Ayhan Kose; Franziska Ohnsorge; Hakan Yilmazkuday
  79. The long-term impact of parental migration on the health of young left-behind children By Li, Jinkai; Luo, Erga; Cockx, B.
  80. Foreign Exchange Interventions and Foreign Shocks: The case of Uruguay By Garcia-Cicco Javier; Bucacos Elizabeth; Mello Miguel
  81. Who Benefits from Migrant and Female Labor? Connecting Wages to Demographic Changes in French Workplaces 1 By Matthew Soener; Olivier Godechot; Mirna Safi
  82. Innovation and Globalization: Benefactors or Barriers to Inclusive Growth? By Duong, Khanh; Nguyen Phuc Van

  1. By: Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki; Kuosmanen, Natalia; Pajarinen, Mika; Ylhäinen, Ilkka
    Abstract: Abstract Services in Global Competition project examined the internationalization of service companies and service functions. This brief presents the main findings of this project based on three distinct perspectives. The first involves a comparison of Finland’s foreign trade in services with that of other countries. The second focuses on the relocation of service functions between countries and the international intermediate service trade. The third delves into service company acquisitions and their impact.
    Keywords: Acquisition, Globalization, Internationalization, Offshoring, Trade, Service
    JEL: F14 L8
    Date: 2023–11–30
  2. By: Rodolfo Campos (Banco de España); Samuel Pienknagura (International Monetary Fund); Jacopo Timini (Banco de España)
    Abstract: We study the globalization of trade in Latin America and Asia over the past 25 years and quantify its economic impact. Employing structural gravity models, we first estimate a proxy of trade globalization that captures the ease of trading internationally with respect to trading domestically. The results indicate similar trade globalization patterns in the two regions, albeit with a high degree of heterogeneity within them. Trade globalization has been particularly strong in agriculture, mining and manufacturing, but has lagged in services. Within-region heterogeneity is associated with a set of trade policy instruments, including tariffs, non-tariff measures, WTO membership and trade agreements. Next, we quantify the economic implications of the estimated globalization trends. Simulations of a multi-sector trade model point to heterogeneous long-term impacts of globalization on GDP (some countries exhibiting substantial gains and others experiencing large losses), with no single sector playing a predominant role.
    Keywords: trade, globalization, structural gravity, Latin America, Asia
    JEL: F13 F14 F15
    Date: 2023–10
  3. By: Alicia H. Dang; Kala Krishna; Yingyan Zhao
    Abstract: We investigate the phenomenon of trade re-allocations across countries as a result of the U.S.- China trade war. Using quarterly data on U.S. imports, we find evidence, as do others, of trade diversion in a range of industries and products, including products not targeted by U.S. tariffs on China. We are however the first to ask what seems to drive these trade reallocation activities. First, we show that they seem to be driven by differences in comparative advantage across countries: countries with a greater revealed comparative advantage in a product benefit (in terms of exports to the U.S.) more from U.S. tariffs on China. Second, we show that there is evidence of spillovers to similar non-targeted products: products in similar industries (as defined by their HS codes) are also similarly affected. This is consistent with the colocation effects. Third, our findings also suggest that bystander countries with greater capital abundance are more heavily impacted in capital-intensive industries, suggesting that a higher proportion of more flexible or transferable assets provides flexibility to alter production to respond to new trade opportunities. Finally, we show that the countries that export more to the U.S. as a result of the tariffs on China also export more to other countries. This suggests that firms are entering these countries and once there, export not just to the U.S. but everywhere.
    JEL: F13 F14
    Date: 2023–11
  4. By: Lea Borchert; Ralph De Haas; Karolin Kirschenmann; Alison Schultz
    Abstract: We exploit proprietary information on severed correspondent banking relationships (due to the stricter enforcement of financial crime regulation) to assess how payment disruptions impede cross-border trade. Using firm-level export data from emerging Europe, we show that when local respondent banks lose access to correspondent banking services, their corporate borrowers start to export less. This trade decline occurs on both the extensive and intensive margins, and firms only partially substitute these foregone exports with higher domestic sales. As a result, total firm revenues and employment shrink. These findings highlight an often overlooked function of global banks: providing the payment infrastructure and trade finance that enables firms in less-developed countries to export to richer parts of the world.
    Keywords: Correspondent banking; trade finance; de-risking, global banks; international trade; anti-money laundering
    JEL: F14 F15 F36 G21 G28
    Date: 2023–12
  5. By: Lee, Seungrae (Sungkyunkwan University)
    Abstract: This study uses a detailed product-level data to examine the trade deflection of Korean exports as a result of antidumping (AD) duty impositions. Given that APEC economies account for a large share of Korean exports and AD duty impositions on Korean exports, especially by the U.S. and China, this study focuses on the deflection of Korean export to APEC economies following the imposition of AD duties by the U.S. and China. This study finds robust evidence of Korean export deflection within APEC as a result of the imposition of AD duties by the U.S. and China. Moreover, intra-APEC trade deflection is associated with the type of products involved in the AD duty orders. U.S. AD duties have an impact on the export deflection of intermediate products, while Chinese AD duties have an impact on final products, towards APEC economies.
    Keywords: antidumping duties; APEC; Korean exports; trade deflection
    JEL: F13 F14
    Date: 2023–11–30
  6. By: Mahlkow, Hendrik; Wanner, Joschka
    Abstract: International trade is highly imbalanced both in terms of values and in terms of embodied carbon emissions. We show that the persistent current value trade imbalance patterns contribute to a higher level of global emissions compared to a world of balanced international trade. Specifically, we build a Ricardian quantitative trade model including sectoral input-output linkages, trade imbalances, fossil fuel extraction, and carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion and use this framework to simulate counterfactual changes to countries' trade balances. For individual countries, the emission effects of removing their trade imbalances depend on the carbon intensities of their production and consumption patterns, as well as on their fossil resource abundance. Eliminating the Russian trade surplus and the US trade deficit would lead to the largest environmental benefits in terms of lower global emissions. Globally, the simultaneous removal of all trade imbalances would lower world carbon emissions by 0.9 percent or 295 million tons of carbon dioxide.
    Keywords: Carbon emissions, international trade, gravity
    JEL: F14 F18 Q56
    Date: 2023
  7. By: Prema-chandra Athukorala1, Jeevika Weerahewa2 and Navaratne Bandara Kandangama2
    Abstract: In recent decades, there has been a palpable shift in the commodity composition of world agri-food trade away from the traditional primary (unprocessed) products mostly exported from developing countries. However, this structural change in trade patterns and its policy implications have so far received scant attention in policy making in most agricultural-resource rich developing countries. Policy makers are still wedded to the conventional division of primary products and manufactured goods that lumps together processed food with primary (unprocessed) agri-food products. This paper aims to draw attention to this policy oversight by examining the experience of Sri Lankan in processed food exports against the backdrop of the experiences of the other countries is the Asian region. The analysis uses a new dataset that systematically delineate processed food from the traditional primary good products, The analytical narrative of inter-country pattern of export performance shows that, unlike primary commodity dependence, exporting processed food is positively associated with the state of economic advancement of countries. The results of the econometric analysis suggests that export success of a country is determined by a combination of growth of world demand, the domestic agricultural resource endowment and the conduciveness of the policy regime for global economic integration.
    Keywords: agri-food, processed food, trade policy, globalization, export performance
    JEL: F13 F63 N45 O13 Q17
    Date: 2023
  8. By: Nagengast, Arne J.; Yotov, Yoto
    Abstract: We nest an extended two-way fixed effect (ETWFE) estimator for staggered difference-in-differences within the structural gravity model. To test the ETWFE, we estimate the effects of regional trade agreements (RTAs). The results suggest that RTA estimates in the current gravity literature may be biased downward (by more than 50% in our sample). Sensitivity analyses confirm the robustness of our main findings and demonstrate the applicability of our methods in different settings. We expect the ETWFE methods to have significant implications for the estimates of other policy variables in the trade literature and for gravity regressions on migration and FDI flows.
    Keywords: Staggered Difference-in-Differences, Gravity Model, Trade Agreements
    JEL: C13 C23 F10 F13 F14
    Date: 2023
  9. By: Saarthak Sharma
    Abstract: It is certain that the new world order in international trade restriction for domestic industry protection are not only tariffs but also various non-tariff barriers. As a matter of fact, identifying and measuring the extent of such barriers is far harder, whereas for tariffs, its simply, a numerical value that can be used to estimate the loss of trade and even the loss of welfare to an extent. However, this is not possible for non-tariff barriers simply due to their complexity and intertwining nature with other laws of the particular country as well as with its governmental structure. Thus, measuring such barriers and the extent to which such barriers cause damage to trade is extremely hard to measure accurately. Despite the hardships, several studies have been undertaken to analyse the impact of such barriers on exports of nations. This study aims to conduct a similar analysis for India, keeping in mind the variables that may affect India’s exports, there shall be an attempt to keep the model as explanatory and dynamic as possible. The study will consider data for a period of 10 years, 2010-2020, since the purpose is to judge and compare the impact of Non-tariff barriers relative to tariffs, all the variables included in the model will be considered with the view that they contribute more to the explanatory power of the model and are impacted by or are impactful on non-tariff barriers. The methodologies that are used, as well as the expected results, are discussed in the subsequent sections.
    Keywords: World Trade Organization, Non-Tariff Barriers, Tariffs, HS-Codes, Gravity Model
    JEL: F13 F14
    Date: 2023–12
  10. By: Robin Kaiji Gong; Yao Amber Li; Kalina Manova; Stephen Teng Sun; Kalina B. Manova
    Abstract: We investigate how international patent activity enables firms from emerging economies to thrive in the global marketplace. We match Chinese customs data to US patent records, and leverage the quasi-random assignment of USPTO patent examiners to identify the causal effect of a US patent grant on the subsequent export performance of Chinese firms. Successful first-time patent applicants achieve significantly higher export growth, compared to otherwise similar first-time applicants that failed. This effect operates only in small part through market protection for technologically patent-related products in the US, and is largely driven by expansion in other markets. The response across destinations and products reveals that a US patent award signals the Chinese firm’s capacity to produce high-quality products and credibility to honor contracts, mitigating information frictions in international trade. There is little evidence for the relaxation of financial constraints or the promotion of follow-on innovation.
    Keywords: patent rights, innovation, export performance, trade, market protection, asymmetric information, signaling
    JEL: F10 F14 O30 O31 O34
    Date: 2023
  11. By: Häberli, Christian; Kostetsky, Bogdan
    Abstract: The latest report on "Repairing Broken Food Trade Routes Ukraine – Africa” covers: Production and trade risks for global food security Investment risks for Ukraine Diversification and processing as partial solutions to the export problems Importance of Ukraine’s victory for global food security This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme “Making Agricultural Trade Sustainable” (MATS) programme ( The role of MATS/WTI in this programme is to identify and explore “broken” Ukrainian - African food trade routes due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Starting with a food trade flow chart pre- and post-24 February 2022, it will assess, first, whether Ukrainian (or African) traders can again supply these products (Output 1). Failing that, whether the new EU-financed “Crisis Management” (or another) programme can possibly make up for lost Ukrainian agrifood exports (Output 2). It will also identify alternative exporters (if any) that might already have filled in agrifood demand in Africa (Output 3). Importantly, the Project also looks at the potential effect of these developments on competing farm production in Africa (Output 4). For further information, please write to Christian Häberli ( or Bogdan Kostetsky (
    Date: 2023–12–19
  12. By: Assi Okara (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the potential of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to counter socio-political instability, one of the most pressing challenges faced by developing countries. Socio-political (in)stability is approached from an institutional perspective and linked to one particular type of FDI, greenfield FDI, for its more direct socio-economic externalities and their influences on greed and grievance. The issue of causality is primarily addressed using a gravity-based instrumental variable for FDI, taking advantage of bilateral greenfield projects data. The empirical results using data over the period 2003-2017 for a large sample of developing countries show that FDI favors institutional development not only in terms of overall socio-political stability but also human rights compliant socio-political stability. The results are robust to a range of specifications and alternative identification strategies, as well as to a series of sensitivity tests. Overall, this study highlights the promotion of political stability as another channel through which FDI can contribute to development.
    Keywords: Greenfield FDI, institutions, political stability, developing countries
    Date: 2022–02
  13. By: Blanga-Gubbay, Michael; Rubínová, Stela
    Abstract: Using monthly data on trade in goods between January 2016 and May 2023, this study assesses the impact of recent shocks on the fragmentation of the global economy, looking in particular at the dynamics of friend-shoring, near-shoring and decoupling between the world's two largest economies. Results based on gravity model regressions with high-dimensional fixed effects show that trade flows have become more sensitive to geopolitical distance since the start of the war in Ukraine, leading to the first signs of overall trade fragmentation along geopolitical lines, i.e. friend-shoring. Trade in goods between hypothetical East and West blocs has grown 4 per cent slower than intra-bloc trade since the start of the war. On the other hand, we find no evidence of an increased regionalisation of world trade since the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic or the war in Ukraine. Therefore, our results suggest that near-shoring strategies did not have a large impact on world trade. Finally, our results confirm that the increased trade tensions between the world's two largest economies have significantly reduced their bilateral trade, a trend that has been exacerbated by the geopolitical tensions and uncertainty created by the war in Ukraine.
    Keywords: global trade outlook, empirical studies of trade, fragmentation, decoupling
    JEL: F01 F14 F52
    Date: 2023
  14. By: Ruiqi Sun; Daniel Trefler
    Abstract: The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and of cross-border restrictions on data flows has created a host of new questions and related policy dilemmas. This paper addresses two questions: How is digital service trade shaped by (1) AI algorithms and (2) by the interplay between AI algorithms and cross-border restrictions on data flows? Answers lie in the palm of your hand: From London to Lagos, mobile app users trigger international transactions when they open AI-powered foreign apps. We have 2015-2020 usage data for the most popular 35, 575 mobile apps and, to quantify the AI deployed in each of these apps, we use a large language model (LLM) to link each app to each of the app developer's AI patents. (This linkage of specific products to specific patents is a methodological innovation.) Armed with data on app usage by country, with AI deployed in each app, and with an instrument for AI (a Heckscher-Ohlin cost-shifter), we answer our two questions. (1) On average, AI causally raises an app's number of foreign users by 2.67 log points or by more than 10-fold. (2) The impact of AI on foreign users is halved if the foreign users are in a country with strong restrictions on cross-border data flows. These countries are usually autocracies. We also provide a new way of measuring AI knowledge spillovers across firms and find large spillovers. Finally, our work suggests numerous ways in which LLMs such as ChatGPT can be used in other applications.
    JEL: F12 F13 F14 F23
    Date: 2023–11
  15. By: Evgenii Monastyrenko (DEM, Université du Luxembourg); Pierre M. Picard (DEM, Université du Luxembourg)
    Abstract: We build a trade model that simultaneously embeds vertical product differentiation, within- country heterogeneous income, heterogeneous goods, and many countries. Under some spec- ifications of costs and preferences, we can establish the existence of the general equilibrium and obtain a very tractable quantification model. We estimate all of the model parameters by applying the model properties on OECD countries. We finally quantify the effect of trade costs and economic shocks – like Brexit – on each country’s share of high-quality goods.
    Keywords: vertical differentiation, general equilibrium, international trade.
    JEL: F12 F16 L11 L15
    Date: 2023
  16. By: Assi Okara (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)
    Abstract: Foreign Direct Investment flows to developing economies have increased significantly over the last decades, bringing about important changes in the developing world. This paper is interested in the institutional aspect of these changes, a dimension weakly investigated in the development literature. More precisely, it explores how the quality of economic institutions in developing countries responds to changes in FDI inflows. The results, based on extensive data on FDI for a large sample of developing countries over the period 1990-2009, show that economic institutions improve in countries with larger FDI flows. On average, a 10-point increase in FDI inflows as a percent of GDP is associated with a 0.9-point increase in the quality of economic institutions. The results also show that this effect is driven by FDI flows from developed economies while no significant link is detected for FDI from developing economies. Furthermore, they indicate that the positive institutional impact of total FDI is likely to be mitigated in countries where the natural resources sector represents a major driver of FDI. The findings suggest that the quality of the institutions in FDI origin countries matters in the FDI/economic institutions relationship in the developing world. Overall, the results are robust to a series of sensitivity tests including the introduction of additional control variables, the exclusion of outliers, the test of income group and regional effects, and heterogeneity analysis based on the level of institutional development of the origin countries.
    Keywords: economic institutions, property rights, FDI, developing countries
    Date: 2022–02
  17. By: Bajo-Rubio, Oscar; Ramos-Herrera, María del Carmen
    Abstract: In this paper, we analyse the relationship between international trade and economic growth in an unbalanced panel of 20 European countries in a long-term perspective, since the mid-19th century to present days, differentiating between the periods before and after the start of the Second World War. To this end, we perform Granger-causality tests between exports and GDP, and between imports and GDP, following the novel methodology of Juodis et al. (2021) for panel data models with large cross-sectional and time series dimensions. Our results support the existence of a bi-directional relationship between both trade variables and GDP, for the whole period and across subperiods.
    Keywords: International trade, Economic growth, Europe, Granger-causality
    JEL: F41 F43 N10 O47
    Date: 2023
  18. By: Marize Abdou Kalliny (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Nadia Hasham; Modesta Adjoa Nsowaa-Adu; Regina Kaseka
    Abstract: Young women and men play critical roles in trade, as entrepreneurs, skilled workers, cross-border traders, and consumers, yet face structural and capacity barriers to participating in trade. This paper investigates the participation of young women and men in trade with a focus on their entrepreneurial and employee roles. It considers the challenges faced by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which youth are more likely to own or run. In the absence of age-disaggregated data, the authors use the World Bank Enterprise Surveys to assess the characteristics and the barriers faced by SMEs engaged in global value chains. This is complemented by literature and qualitative evidence that can be applied to the experience of youth. The paper then investigates the situation of youth in employment by considering the gap in skilled labour faced by trading firms that can be addressed by youth, with a particular focus on digital skills. A gender mainstreaming approach is applied throughout to assess the differences in the experiences of young women and men. The analysis then considers successful policy, private sector, and partner interventions to address these gaps and highlights the newer trend of integrating youth considerations in trade agreements. Findings suggest that the primary challenge faced by youth-owned or -led smaller trading firms is access to finance and that greater integration in global value chains allows SMEs to overcome barriers related to factors of production. Trading firms may provide more stable and skilled employment for young women and increased opportunities for youth if successful policies and programmes to address a labour-skills mismatch are scaled. Youth participation in leadership and decision-making can address sustainability and impact gaps through a holistic approach involving capacity building and mentorship. Existing experience and evidence show initial successes and provide insight into approaches stakeholders can take at the level of trade agreements, policy, and implementation to ensure young women and men fully benefit from trade and trade outcomes are enhanced as a result. The paper ultimately argues that policies and programmes to encourage and ensure the full participation of youth in trade in all their roles can address market gaps and enhance trade.
    Keywords: Gender, Youth, Trade
    Date: 2023–11–13
  19. By: Ricardo Correa; Julian di Giovanni; Linda S. Goldberg; Camelia Minoiu
    Abstract: The recent era of global trade expansion is over. Faced with increased geopolitical risk, fragile foreign supply chains, and uncertainties in the international trade environment, firms are postponing entry into foreign markets and pulling back from foreign activities (IMF 2023). Besides its direct effects on real activity, the recent rise in trade uncertainty has potentially important implications for the financial sector. This post describes how the lending activities of U.S. banks were affected by the rise in trade uncertainty during the 2018-19 “trade war.” In particular, banks that were more exposed to trade uncertainty contracted lending to all of their domestic nonfinancial business borrowers, regardless of whether these borrowers were facing high or low uncertainty themselves. Furthermore, banks’ lending strategies exhibited the type of “wait-and-see” behavior usually found in corporate firms facing investment decisions under uncertainty, and the lending contraction was larger for those banks that were more financially constrained.
    Keywords: bank loans; trade finance; trade uncertainty
    JEL: F34 F42 G21
    Date: 2023–12–20
  20. By: Coulibaly Niénéyéri Mamadou (UJloG - Université Jean Lorougnon Guédé)
    Abstract: The aim of this study is to analyse trade between the member countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) and those of the European Union (EU) pre-Brexit over the period 2014-2019. It estimates a gravity model based on panel data. Three econometric estimation techniques are used : the WITHIN method, the Generalised Least Squares (GLS) method and the Hausman and Taylor (HT) method. These different estimation techniques are then compared to determine which is the most appropriate. The data used are secondary data from several sources : the International Monetary Fund (World Economic Outlook), the World Bank (World Development Indicators), the United Nations (UN Comtrade) and the ephemeride website. The results show that trade between these two groups of countries is positively and significantly influenced by income in WAEMU countries, infrastructure in WAEMU countries and population in EU countries. They also show that when an EU country is landlocked, its trade flows with WAEMU countries are reduced, while at the same time, the landlocked status of a WAEMU country does not affect its trade with EU countries. Variables such as the bilateral real exchange rate, distance, language and colonial links were found to be insignificant.
    Keywords: Trade, Trade flows, Gravity model, EU, WAEMU and Brexit
    Date: 2023–10
  21. By: Polanco, Rodrigo
    Abstract: Abstract This article describes the sustainable development provisions found in general in international investment agreements, as well as those that explicitly refer to environmental and labour standards. In turn, it examines in detail Chilean international investment agreements and their sustainable development provisions, both in bilateral investment promotion and protection agreements and as part of free trade agreements and compares them with the inclusion of these provisions in international investment agreements worldwide. Considering that Chile is one of the leading countries in the negotiation of trade agreements and, at the same time, has made a strong public commitment to promote sustainable development, in the conclusion, we propose some recommendations for future negotiations or renegotiations of Chilean international investment agreements to include more provisions on sustainable development. About the author Dr Rodrigo Polanco, WTI Senior Researcher and Lecturer, Academic Coordinator, Advanced Master Programmes
    Date: 2023–12–20
  22. By: Alejandra Martínez – Martínez (Departamento de Estructura Económica, Facultad de Economía. Avda, de los Naranjos s/n. 46022, Valencia, Spain); Silviano Esteve – Pérez (Departamento de Estructura Económica, Facultad de Economía. Avda, de los Naranjos s/n. 46022, Valencia, Spain); Salvador Gil – Pareja (Departamento de Estructura Económica, Facultad de Economía. Avda, de los Naranjos s/n. 46022, Valencia, Spain); Rafael Llorca - Vivero (Departamento de Estructura Económica, Facultad de Economía. Avda, de los Naranjos s/n. 46022, Valencia, Spain)
    Abstract: Climate change impacts international trade. The literature suggests that thisrelationship is driven by the damage to infrastructure and reduced productivitycaused by this global phenomenon. Furthermore, recent research indicates thatthe impact on energy consumption could explain the real effects of disasters inthe United States. Using a sample of 67 countries during the period 1986–2016, we analyze whether the secular increase in global temperatures and theoccurrence of drastic climate events (wildfires, floods, extreme temperatures, epidemics, insect infestations, storms, droughts, and landslides) affectcountries’ energy consumption and labor productivity, which can subsequentlyimpact international trade. By estimating a theory-based gravity model, ourresults suggest that energy intensity is the channel through which risingtemperatures affect international trade. Furthermore, the impact of events oninternational trade does not seem to be channeled through either energyefficiency or labor productivity. A deeper analysis suggests the key role playedby China in this regard. The Chinese government’s enormous investment ininfrastructure since 1998 to manage these types of disasters seems to be themost reasonable explanation.
    Keywords: climate change, energy consumption, productivity, extreme weather events, international trade
    JEL: C1 F14 F15
    Date: 2023–12
  23. By: Bellucci, Chiara; Rubínová, Stela; Piermartini, Roberta
    Abstract: In this paper we study the impact of digitalization on trade costs in 58 economies over the period 2014 - 2018. Improvements in digital connectivity can reduce trade costs through multiple channels, including better access to information, lower transaction costs, the reduced need for business travel, more efficient customs and logistics, and easier communication. However, these positive effects depend on effective regulation that ensures trust in digital markets and open access to digital infrastructure, services and data. We assess the impact of digital connectivity, proxied by the number of active mobile broadband subscriptions per capita, on a broad measure of trade costs that captures all impediments that make international trade more difficult or costly than domestic trade. We estimate that a 10 percentage point higher digital connectivity is associated with around 2 per cent lower trade costs both in goods and services. Digital trade regulation that ensures cross-border connectivity and information flows amplifies the trade-cost-reducing effect of improved digital connectivity. This result is particularly strong in digitally deliverable services where the marginal effect of connectivity at the best regulation is 80 per cent larger than at the median regulation.
    Keywords: digital trade, trade costs, gravity model, digital regulation
    JEL: F10 F14 F15
    Date: 2023
  24. By: Andrea Greppi (OECD); Alireza Naghavi (University of Bologna, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: This study investigates how easing international transactions through im- proved legal institutions can result in divergent trade patterns for different economies. We provide evidence that the level of development governs the relevance of intellectual property rights (IPR) institutions in determining a country’s comparative advantage. While IPR protection changes the composi- tion of OECD exports towards IP-intensive sectors, contract enforcement is the key driver of specialization of non-OECD exports in relation-specific inputs. The findings suggest a concentration of innovation activities in the OECD, with non-OECD countries serving as potential outsourcing destinations. We exploit information on IPR reforms over time to show the robustness of our results through both an instrumental variable and a difference-in-difference approach. We extend the analysis to a bilateral framework to show that better IPR quality could nevertheless encourage technology transfer by encouraging imports of IP-intensive goods into non-OECD countries.
    JEL: F13 F14 F63 O34 D23
    Date: 2022–12–12
  25. By: Muhammad, Andrew; Menard, R. Jamey; Hughes, David W.; Clark, Harrison; Taylor, Adam
    Abstract: The U.S. is the world’s largest source of industrial wood production (FAO, 2019), with the U.S. South accounting for half of total production (Howard and Liang, 2019). Most of this production is from the “pine belt, ” which includes states like Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. Unlike these pine-belt states, Tennessee is primarily a hardwood state (deciduous trees), which are rela- tively high value and make an important contribution to Tennessee’s economy (Pelkki and Sherman, 2020). Tennessee’s forestry activity tends to be in rural areas and is often smaller scale than other industries, so the economic and social importance of the wood products industry are often underappreciated. It is estimated that forestry in Tennessee provides over 85, 000 jobs and has an annual economic impact of over $21 billion (Menard, English and Jensen, 2021). Tennessee is among the top ten states in terms of the relative importance of forestry, alongside Maine, Wisconsin, and Oregon (Pelkki and Sherman, 2020). Tennessee’s forestry industry is globally connected, and many sawmills in the state are dependent on global sales. About half of the higher-grade hardwood lumber produced in Tennessee is exported (Luppold et al., 2018). Consequently, changes in global markets can have a significant impact on Tennessee’s forest economy. In this report, we discuss the economic impact of Tennessee’s forestry exports. We examine the export changes in 2022 (relative to 2021) across destination countries (e.g., China, European Union) and by product (e.g., oak lumber, hardwood logs, barrels), and further assess the full economic impact of export sales on income and jobs at the state level. Forestry exports are not just important to Tennessee but to the entire country. U.S. sales of forest products to foreign countries were $10.5 billion in 2022. In the context of agriculture and related products (as defined by the U.S. Department of Agriculture), 1 forest products are an important share of total U.S. exports, with global sales comparable to America’s top agricultural exports: beef ($11.8 billion), dairy products ($9.5 billion), cotton ($8.9 billion), and wheat ($8.3 billion). Forestry exports in Tennessee ($194 million in 2022) ranked third among agricultural and related exports behind distilled spirits and cotton (USDA, 2023). Exports of forest products were negatively impacted by the U.S. trade war with China in 2018 and 2019 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This was the case for both the U.S. and Tennessee. The pandemic had a significant impact on global sales due to supply and demand disruptions in the global market for finished wood products (e.g., furniture) and the interrelated market for raw materials and inputs (e.g., logs and lumber) (Muhammad and Taylor, 2020). These effects were in addition to the negative impacts of China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. timber, which are still in place (Muhammad et al., 2022). Exports of forest products from 2019 to 2022, nationally, regionally, and for Tennessee are reported in Table 1. From 2020 to 2021, U.S. exports increased by $2.1 billion. In 2022, exports continued to increase by $756 million (nearly 8%) when compared to the previous year, reaching 10.5 billion. This increase was mostly in Southern states, followed by Western states. U.S. and Tennessee exports further recovered in 2022 by 8% and 4%, respectively, when compared to 2021 (USDA, 2023). The increase in exports sales in 2021 and 2022 was a welcomed turnaround given the declines experienced in previous years.
    Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2023–12–13
  26. By: Kim, June Dong (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Koh, Joon Sung (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Kang, Jungu (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP))
    Abstract: 지난 2021년 12월 2일 70개 WTO 회원국이 참여한 서비스 국내규제에 관한 공동 이니셔티브(WTO 서비스 국내규제 규범)가 타결되었다. 현재 진행 중인 WTO의 인증 절차가 마무리되면 이 복수국가 간 협정은 법적 구속력을 갖게 된다. 이에 본 연구에서는 WTO 서비스 국내규제 규범의 조문별 내용을 분석하고, 동 규범과의 합치성을 판단하기 위한 기준을 제시하며, 나아가 개별 조항에 관한 국내 모범관행을 파악함으로써 동 규범의 국내적 이행을 위한 대응방안을 제시하였다. On December 2, 2021, seventy WTO members announced the successful conclusion of the negotiations within the Joint Initiative on Services Domestic Regulation. The participants acknowledged the conclusion of negotiations on the Reference Paper on Services Domestic Regulation. As of September 2023, the participants are currently in the process of WTO certification by integrating the disciplines outlined in the Reference Paper as additional commitments in their GATS schedules. After this process is completed, these plurilateral agreements will come into effect. This study aimed to analyze the contents of each article of WTO Services Domestic Regulation, and to present standards for compatibility of domestic regulations with this discipline. Additionally, this study identified domestic best practices related to each article to present how to implement this discipline domestically. In other words, the study presented the general guidelines and detailed checking guides that each official in charge of those domestic regulations should be aware of. First, in analyzing each article of WTO Disciplines on Services Domestic Regulations, we reviewed their meanings and then identified major matters to be checked and addressed. Subsequently, we analyzed our cases for implementation of the relevant legislations. Next, we outlined the likely economic impacts based on prior research that estimated tariff equivalents of domestic regulations on services. By implementing the WTO Disciplines on Services Domestic Regulations, we can anticipate (i) an increase in consumer welfare (ii) a boost in foreign direct investment due to the improvement of domestic business environment from enhancement of transparency and predictability of domestic regulations (iii) enhanced competitiveness of domestic firms (iv) improved economy-wide productivity by employing efficient services as inputs, and (v) facilitated outbound activities of domestic firms through improved overseas business environment as a result of the implementation of these Disciplines by other WTO members.(the rest omitted)
    Keywords: WTO service negotiations; service domestic regulation; service domestic regulation; regulatory reform; trade policy
    Date: 2023–11–24
  27. By: Nathapornpan Piyaareekul Uttama (School of Management, Mae Fah Luang University, Chiang Rai, Thailand)
    Abstract: This study investigates the impacts of COVID-19 government policies and trade measures on trade flows and trade resilience in Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) nations from the first quarter of 2017 to the fourth quarter of 2022. Using panel data analysis and penalised Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood regression, the results show that COVID-19 containment and health policies implemented by RCEP and partner countries as well as income support and debt relief measures taken by RCEP nations have favourable impacts on trade flows and trade resilience for RCEP countries. However, COVID-19 stringency measures implemented by RCEP and partner countries, as well as partners' income support and debt relief measures, had detrimental impacts on the trade flows and trade resilience of RCEP countries. RCEP trade flows were also influenced by liberalised and restricted trade measures. The implications of these findings for improving trade performance amongst RCEP nations post-COVID-19 are highlighted.
    Keywords: : Trade flows; trade resilience; COVID-19 government policies; temporary COVID-19 trade measures
    Date: 2023–11–29
  28. By: Jakob Lehr
    Abstract: Using the German census of the manufacturing industry, I analyze the impact of import competition on carbon emissions per unit of deflated sales (emission intensity). I combine precise information on firm-level CO2 emissions with sector-level trade flows. Looking at the period 1995 until 2017, I focus on the impact of the rise of Eastern Europe and China while addressing the endogeneity of trade flows with an instrumental variable approach. The baseline results suggest that a 1pp increase in the import penetration ratio caused a reduction of the average firms’ emission intensity by approximately 0.3%. This result implies that the rise of the joint East kept the average firm emission intensity 6% below the level it would have had in the absence of the East’s rise. I do not find strong indication for reallocation of production towards more efficient firms. Finally, I supplement the analysis by examining the effect of export opportunities due to the East’s rise. The results indicate that exporting to the East increased sales and, through that channel, lowered emission intensities.
    Keywords: CO2 Emission Intensity, Energy Efficiency, Import Competition, Manufacturing Firms, Environment, Germany
    JEL: F18 Q54 L60 D22
    Date: 2023–12
  29. By: Julian di Giovanni; Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan; Alvaro Silva; Muhammed A. Yildirim; Muhammed Ali Yildirim
    Abstract: We estimate a multi-country multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of domestic inflation during 2020–2023 in several countries, including the United States. The model matches observed inflation together with sector-level prices and wages. We further measure the relative importance of different types of shocks on inflation across countries over time. The key mechanism, the international transmission of demand, supply and energy shocks through global linkages helps us to match the behavior of the USD/Euro exchange rate. The quantification exercise yields four key findings. First, negative supply shocks to factors of production, labor and intermediate inputs, initially sparked inflation in 2020–2021. Global supply chains and complementarities in production played an amplification role in this initial phase. Second, positive aggregate demand shocks, due to stimulative policies, widened demand-supply imbalances, amplifying inflation further during 2021–2022. Third, the reallocation of consumption between goods and service sectors, a relative sector-level demand shock, played a role in transmitting these imbalances across countries through the global trade and production network. Fourth, global energy shocks have differential impacts on the US relative to other countries’ inflation rates. Further, complementarities between energy and other inputs to production play a particularly important role in the quantitative impact of these shocks on inflation.
    Keywords: inflation, international spillovers, global production network
    JEL: E20 E30 E60 F10 F40
    Date: 2023
  30. By: UMEJIMA Osamu
    Abstract: This paper presents the final report of the USMCA arbitration, United States – Automobile Rules of Origin , and provides an overview of the rules of origin in free trade agreements in general, and the regional value content (RVC) calculation for passenger vehicles and light trucks (the “automobiles†) under NAFTA and the USMCA. USMCA increased the RVC for automobiles to 75 percent, from 62.5 percent under NAFTA. An importing party is then required to permit duty-free imports up to one-tenth of recent production of automobiles with RVC of 62.5 percent until July 2025. The United States added to the permit a condition that the RVC must be calculated without applying the roll-up method. The Panel rejected the interpretation by the United States, and found that the roll-up applies to the RVC calculation. This paper found no errors in the findings of the Panel. The United States, however, has been hesitating implementation of the rulings.
    Date: 2023–11
  31. By: Benny Kleinman; Ernest Liu; Stephen J. Redding; Motohiro Yogo
    Abstract: We generalize the closed-economy neoclassical growth model (CNGM) to allow for costly goods trade and capital flows with imperfect substitutability between countries. We develop a tractable, multi-country, quantitative model that matches key features of the observed data (e.g., gravity equations for trade and capital holdings) and is well suited for analyzing counterfactual policies that affect both goods and capital market integration (e.g., U.S.-China decoupling). We show that goods and capital market integration interact in non-trivial ways to shape impulse responses to counterfactual changes in productivity and goods and capital market frictions and the speed of convergence to steady-state.
    Keywords: economic growth, international trade, capital flows
    Date: 2023–12–05
  32. By: Hideo Konishi (Boston College); Minoru Nakada (Nagoya University); Akihisa Shibata (Kyoto University)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the e§ects of a free trade agreement (FTA) with environmental provisions between northern and southern countries. We explicitly consider clean technology transfers from the North to the South and the enforcement levels of adopting clean technology in the South, which have not been discussed so far. Southern producers beneÖt greatly from having unimpeded access to a northern market, but they are reluctant to use new high-cost, clean technology provided by the North. We investigate how environmentally conscious northern countries could design an FTA in which southern countries are provided with sufficient membership benefits but follow tighter enforcement requirements. We provide a quantitative evaluation of FTA policies using a numerical example.
    Keywords: Free trade agreements; Deep integration; Technology transfer; Monetary transfer; Environmental provisions; Enforcement
    JEL: F15 F18 Q56
    Date: 2023–12–02
  33. By: Clement Anne; Cyril Chalendard; Ana Fernandes; Bob Rijkers; Vincent Vicard; Ana Margarida Fernandes
    Abstract: To identify transactions at risk of tariff evasion, this paper matches export transaction data from France with import transaction data from Madagascar using container identifiers. Reporting discrepancies between exporters and importers are prevalent but small, with over two-fifths of importers reporting in a way that increases their tariff liability. Yet, aggregate tariff revenues are 24 percent lower due to discrepancies. These revenue losses are highly concentrated: the top five evaders account for three-quarters of all tariff revenue losses and larger shipments are more at risk of evasion. Tariff enforcement in Madagascar is ineffective and only marginally mitigates revenue losses.
    Keywords: tax evasion, mirror statistics, trade, corruption, exporters, importers, tariffs
    JEL: F13 D73 H26
    Date: 2023
  34. By: Evdokia Moïsé; Enxhi Tresa
    Abstract: Plastic products present several environmental, health, social and economic challenges that span from the extraction of raw materials to primary and final plastics production, to their distribution and use, and to the collection and sorting of plastic waste. International trade, which has facilitated the development of plastics supply chains, also comes with a range of challenges, such as a surge in demand for plastics ― notably in packaging ― difficulties to monitor plastics embedded in other products, and an increased risk of plastic waste leaking in countries that have less rigorous environmental regulations. Yet trade can also serve as a vehicle to access foreign pollution control technologies or to foster economies of scale for circular economy practices. Indeed, the implementation of circular economy solutions through trade policies is crucial in addressing plastic pollution. Such policies could include reduced tariffs on environmentally-friendly alternatives to plastic products; trade facilitation measures for reverse supply chains; or technical regulations, standards, labelling schemes, and conformity assessment procedures that promote product designs which will minimise pollution throughout the entire plastic lifecycle.
    Keywords: Green transition, Trade policies, Value chains
    JEL: F18 F53 F64 O34 Q38 Q53 Q56
    Date: 2023–12–11
  35. By: Waliu O. Shittu (University of Waikato); Gazi M. Hassan (University of Waikato); Frank G. Scrimgeour (University of Waikato)
    Abstract: This study measures the role of COVID-19 on the nexus between FDI and sustainable development in SSA. The empirical analysis relies on a panel data from 38 SSA countries, covering 2000 – 2022. The findings suggest that during this period, FDI minimally effected economic growth and development. Specifically, FDI does not have a significant impact on sustainable development in the linear estimates, and a negative effect in the non-linear estimates. When the effect of FDI is further analysed on economic growth, the environment, and human development, the estimates remain consistent. While COVID-19 reduces the levels of economic growth, the environment, human development, and sustainable development, the moderating effect shows that FDI reduces the negative effect of COVID-19 on economic growth and sustainable development. Finally, it is observed that rule of law promotes sustainable development; financial development does not exert a significant connection with sustainable development, and negatively affects economic growth and human development, yet the interaction effects of economic growth and financial development on sustainable development is statistically insignificant. Appropriate policies are discussed.
    Keywords: foreign direct investment;sustainable development;corona virus;instrumental variables regression
    JEL: C26 F21 Q01
    Date: 2023–12–18
  36. By: Marco Compagnoni (Dept. of Economics and Management, University of Trento (Italy)); Marco Grazzi (Dept. of Economic Policy, Catholic University of the Sacred Heart, Milan (Italy)); Fabio Pieri (Dept. of Economics and Management, University of Trento (Italy)); Chiara Tomasi (Dept. of Economics and Management, University of Trento (Italy))
    Abstract: In the debate on international waste trade, the focus on resource efficiency and recycling has gradually begun to accompany the focus on negative environmental externalities. In this context, we examine the impact of Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) on the export of waste batteries (WB). EPR is considered as a key policy for the “marketization of waste”. On the other hand, WB are a hazardous waste that also contain a high concentration of critical raw materials. As such, they are of strategic importance for the recovery of critical resources, while at the same time requiring proper environmental management. Therefore, it is crucial to understand where WB are treated and how this is affected by related policies. Our results, based on difference-in-difference models in a gravity framework, show a consistent increase in WB exports after EPR implementation compared to the trend for other wastes. This result is likely to be an indirect consequence of the ability of EPR to support growth in waste collection rates, more accurate tracking of transboundary waste flows, and specialization of national waste management systems. In particular, EPR exports appear to be directed to countries with more advanced waste management systems rather than to developing countries.
    Keywords: Extended producer responsibility, batteries, trade, recycling, circular economy
    JEL: K32 Q51 Q53 Q56
    Date: 2023–10–25
  37. By: Artem Kochnev (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Bernhard Moshammer; Jan Muś; Waltraut Urban (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Chart of the Month Estimated reconstruction needs in Ukraine by Artem Kochnev Opinion Corner EU enlargement reality check – integration rather than membership by Jan Muś Despite the optimistic declarations by many EU leaders, the ambitions of Ukraine and Moldova regarding membership of the EU are likely to be put on ice indefinitely. This is strongly suggested by the case of the Western Balkans, where there has been far more integration (in terms of the economy and remittances) than actual institutional inclusion in EU structures. This often gives rise to the criticism that the EU’s policy on its eastern periphery reflects the expansionary process of a capitalist economy, rather than its much-vaunted democratic values. This may undermine its soft power in the regions concerned. ‘China plus X’ how might it work? by Waltraut Urban With a share of around 20%, China is by far the largest source of imports to the EU. This raises concerns over one-sided dependence and potential vulnerabilities and has given rise to calls for diversification the so-called ‘China plus X’ strategy. However, empirical studies show that only about 14% of Chinese imports can be considered to be of strategic importance. For some of those – such as rare earth minerals, active pharmaceutical ingredients, Li-ion batteries and solar products – the potential for diversification is particularly low. This calls for supportive government measures. EU-Caucasus trade and political relations in the wake of the Ukraine war by Bernhard Moshammer Although, as the largest export destination and the second-biggest source of imports, the EU is a key trading partner for the Caucasus region, EU-Caucasian political relations continue to be dominated by issues that extend beyond the sphere of trade. The war in Ukraine has shifted the dynamics of power in the region, fostered the debate on Georgia’s potential EU membership and brought the EU into the role of mediator in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict – a consequence of Russia losing its leverage in the region, due to its own war in Ukraine. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe
    Keywords: Russia-Ukraine war, reconstruction needs, EU enlargement, Common Foreign and Security Policy, economic integration, ‘China plus X’, critical dependence, import diversification, trade relations, European Neighbourhood Policy, Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
    Date: 2023–06
  38. By: Gale, Fred; Kee, Jennifer; Huang, Joshua
    Abstract: After reaching China from Europe in 2018, the African swine fever (ASF) virus spread throughout the country, dramatically reducing China’s pork supplies. This report investigates the impacts on China’s pork market that resulted from the virus and how China’s increased demand for imported pork affected markets for pork-exporting countries. China’s swine herd experienced a 30-month cycle of decline and recovery, as the country lost an estimated 27.9 million metric tons of its pork output. Pork prices in China more than doubled despite a surge of pork exports from the European Union, United States, Canada, Brazil, and other countries. Pork exports to China prompted smaller price increases in exporting countries’ pork markets. As China’s domestic pork supplies recovered about 3 years after the first ASF outbreaks, Chinese pork prices declined to near their pre-ASF level. U.S. pork exports to China declined but remained above their pre-ASF volume. Volatility in China’s pork market is an ongoing source of uncertainty for exporters despite the rebound in China’s production.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries, Productivity Analysis
    Date: 2023–11
    Abstract: This paper aims to develop an index to analyze regional cooperation in Northeast Asia, which is Northeast Asia Regional Cooperation Index(NARCI). NARCI evaluates intra-regional cooperation and integration in four areas, which are functional cooperation, politico-security cooperation, socio-cultural cooperation, and institutionalization, in order to identify the conflict and cooperation situation in the Northeast Asian region. The analysis of economic integration found that Northeast Asian regional cooperation is characterized by a high level of integration in goods trade and regional value chain cooperation, but a relatively low level of integration in intra-regional direct investment and energy supply chain cooperation. The analysis of the political and security cooperation shows that the intensification of U.S.-China competition and the factional confrontation between Korea, U.S., Japan, and North Korea, China, Russia have had a significant impact on regional cooperation in political and diplomatic security. The result shows that the level of integration is low, with all evaluation indicators being negative. The analysis of the socio-cultural integration shows a relatively low level of integration in civil society cooperation and intergovernmental exchanges, a relatively high level of integration in cultural and educational exchanges and study abroad, and a neutral level of integration in information technology cooperation, labor mobility, and the share of tourists in the region. Finally, the analysis of institutional integration shows a relatively high level of integration in the bilateral channels between governments and the institutionalization of regional cooperation in the socio-cultural field, and half of the countries had institutional integration in financial integration and regional cooperation in the economic field. The level of integration in the political and security field was low due to the existence of only multilateral meetings. The analysis of NARCI shows that the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the economy and socio-culture has been expanding in recent years. However, the low level of political and diplomatic cooperation in the region and related institutional deficiencies are considered to be insufficient to buffer these risks, and efforts are needed to address them.
    Keywords: Northeast Asia; Regional Cooperation; Regional Integration; Index Development
    JEL: F02 F50
    Date: 2023–10–27
  40. By: Abbate Nicolás; Depetris Chauvin Nicolas; Velasquez Agustin
    Abstract: Workers in developing countries tend to spend more time at work than those in developed countries. This can be explained by preferences with prevalent income effects: as income rises, workers reduce their supply of labor hours to consume more leisure. However, not all workers benefit alike. In this study, we estimate the heterogeneous effects of trade, as a shifter of aggregate income, on workers’ labor supply by age, education, and gender. We find that all workers benefit from more leisure caused by the income boost triggered by trade. However, young and elder workers benefit significantly more than prime-age workers. In addition, following increased trade openness women and less educated workers tend to reduce their labor supply relatively more.
    JEL: F16 J22
    Date: 2023–11
  41. By: Castro-Pires, Henrique (University of Surrey); Mello, Marco (University of Aberdeen); Moscelli, Giuseppe (University of Surrey)
    Abstract: We exploit the 2016 Brexit referendum as a migration shock to evaluate the impact of reduced labour supply on the provision of hospital care. After the referendum, a sharp drop in the number of early-career new joiners from Europe resulted in a considerable decrease in the share of EU nurses in the English NHS. Using an enclave instrumental variable empirical strategy, we find that emergency readmission rates increased, and more so in hospital organizations more exposed to the missing inflow of new joiners. A theoretical model shows that this is consistent with a decrease in the quality of new hires.
    Keywords: labour supply, workers' mobility, immigration, patient care, hospital quality, Brexit
    JEL: J45 J61 J68 I11 C26
    Date: 2023–11
  42. By: Raphael Auer; Ariel Burstein; Sarah Lein; Jonathan Vogel; Raphael A. Auer; Sarah Marit Lein; Jonathan E. Vogel
    Abstract: What are the unequal effects of changes in consumer prices on the cost of living? In the context of changes in import prices (driven by, e.g., changes in trade costs or exchange rates), most analyses focus on variation across households in initial expenditure shares on imported goods. However, the unequal welfare effects of non-marginal foreign price changes also depend on differences in how consumers substitute between imported and domestic goods, on which there is scant evidence. Using data from Switzerland surrounding the 2015 appreciation of the Swiss franc, we provide evidence that lower-income households have higher price elasticities. We quantify the contribution of heterogeneous elasticities for the unequal welfare effects of observed price changes between 2014–15 and for counterfactual shocks to the mean and dispersion of import price changes.
    JEL: E30 F10 F41
    Date: 2023
  43. By: Andreoni, Antonio; Anzolin, Guendalina; Labrunie, Mateus; Spinola, Danilo
    Abstract: This research pioneers the construction of a novel Digital Production Technology Classification (DPTC) based on the latest Harmonised Commodity Description and Coding System (HS2017) of the World Customs Organisation. The DPTC enables the identification and comprehensive analysis of 127 tradable products associated with digital production technologies (DPTs). The development of this classification offers a substantial contribution to empirical research and policy analysis. It enables an extensive exploration of international trade in DPTs, such as the identification of emerging trade networks comprising final goods, intermediate components, and instrumentation technologies and the intricate regional and geopolitical dynamics related to DPTs. In this paper, we deploy our DPTC within a network analysis methodological framework to analyse countries' engagements with DPTs through bilateral and multilateral trade. By comparing the trade networks in DPTs in 2012 and 2019, we unveil dramatic shifts in the global DPTs' network structure, different countries' roles, and their degree of centrality. Notably, our findings shed light on China's expanding role and the changing trade patterns of the USA in the digital technology realm. The analysis also brings to the fore the increasing significance of Southeast Asian countries, revealing the emergence of a regional hub within this area, characterised by dense bilateral networks in DPTs. Furthermore, our study points to the fragmented network structures in Europe and the bilateral dependencies that developed there. Being the first systematic DPTC, also deployed within a network analysis framework, we expect the classification to become an indispensable tool for researchers, policymakers, and stakeholders engaged in research on digitalisation and digital industrial policy.
    Keywords: Digital Production Technology (DPT); DPT Classification; Network Analysis; Bilateral Trade; Digitalisation patterns.
    Date: 2023–12–06
  44. By: Ummya Salma; Md. Fazlul Huq Khan; Md. Masum Billah
    Abstract: This study aims to examine the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), personal remittances received, and official development assistance (ODA) in the economic growth of Bangladesh. The study utilizes time series data on Bangladesh from 1976 to 2021. Additionally, this research contributes to the existing literature by introducing the Foreign Capital Depthless Index (FCDI) and exploring its impact on Bangladesh's economic growth. The results of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) suggest that the economic growth of Bangladesh depends on FDI, remittances, and aid in the long run. However, these variables do not exhibit a causal relationship with GDP in the short run. The relationship between FCDI and economic growth is positive in the long run. Nevertheless, the presence of these three variables has a more significant impact on the economic growth of Bangladesh
    Date: 2023–12
  45. By: Paulo Bastos (World Bank); Lisandra Flach (LMU Munich, ifo Institue); Klaus Keller (LMU Munich, Max-Planck Institute for Competition and Innovation)
    Abstract: We investigate the impact of product market competition on firms’ automation investments. We use a rich combination of micro-data on Portuguese exporters and exploit a novel source of variation in the degree of competition they face – a tariff liberalization between the European Union and Central and Eastern European countries in the 1990s. We find that firms facing greater competition in export markets tend to reduce investments in automation technologies. These average negative effects are driven by the least productive firms, while the most efficient exporters in industries that are more prone to automation tend to robotize in order to compete. These findings suggest that an increase in the degree of product market competition widens disparities between firms.
    Keywords: automation; product market competition; firm heterogeneity; trade liberalization; workers; multi-product firms;
    JEL: D22 F16 J23 L25 O33
    Date: 2023–11–28
  46. By: Horn, Henrik (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Sanctuary, Mark (IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Stockholm)
    Abstract: Halting the ongoing global loss of biodiversity will require extensive phase-out of harmful production. A significant share of the affected production will be foreign-owned, and can therefore potentially be covered by investment treaties. These treaties are sometimes alleged to dissuade host countries from phasing out harmful investments, while other observers argue that the treaties are needed to provide incentives for the replacement investments that are required to prevent large income losses. To examine the impact of investment treaties on biodiversity protection, this paper studies a setting with both a stranded and a replacement investment. Among other findings, the paper shows how the dissuading effect of the agreement on host country regulation of the replacement investment, induces the investor to choose a replacement investment that is harmful to biodiversity, and how this in turn reduces the host country's willingness to phase out the stranded investment. The framework also sheds light on fundamental legal notions such as investor "legitimate expectations, " "full compensation, " and "investment."
    Keywords: International investment agreement; Biodiversity protection; Regulatory chill; Legitimate expectations
    JEL: F21 F23 F53 K33
    Date: 2023–11–22
  47. By: Subhayu Bandyopadhyay; Hoang Le
    Abstract: An analysis compares the level of unauthorized border crossing attempts by different source nations before and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
    Keywords: COVID-19; unauthorized immigration
    Date: 2023–12–04
  48. By: Dhammika Dharmapala
    Abstract: The 2017 US tax legislation - widely referred to as the Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) - fundamentally transformed the US system of international taxation. It ostensibly ended worldwide taxation but introduced, for instance, a new tax on “Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income” (GILTI). This paper surveys the emerging empirical literature on the impact of the TCJA’s international provisions. It documents five robust findings in this empirical literature. First, the TCJA led to a general decline in US MNCs’ foreign acquisitions. Second, the TCJA increased US MNCs’ investment in routine foreign tangible assets. Third, the reform did not lead to any change in profit shifting by US MNCs beyond the magnitude that would be expected based on the TCJA’s tax rate reduction. Fourth, The TCJA appears to have reduced the market value of US MNCs relative to domestic US firms. Fifth, the TCJA does not appear to have had any detectable impact on domestic US investment and wages (although there are some contrary results for capital expenditures). The welfare implications of these findings depend crucially on whether US MNCs’ are viewed as having engaged in too much or too little foreign activity prior to the TCJA. This depends on the choice of theoretical framework and the relevant normative benchmark, and cannot readily be resolved empirically.
    Keywords: international taxation, multinational firms, Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA), repatriation taxes, global intangible low-taxed income tax
    JEL: H25 F23
    Date: 2023
  49. By: Dalmazzo, Alberto (University of Siena); Leombruni, Roberto (University of Turin); Razzolini, Tiziano (University of Siena)
    Abstract: Regulations in host countries often impose heavy limitations on the opportunities of migrant workers. Here, we analyse how (the anticipation of) a change in the legal status of foreign workers may affect their terms of employment. Building on a simple theoretical model, we consider a sample of non-EU immigrants in Italy over the period which led to the accession of Romania and Bulgaria to the European Union in 2007. We find that the expectation of achieving EU citizenship increased Romanians' and Bulgarians' bargaining power over wages and job attributes, relative to other non-EU migrants, and also stimulated business venture.
    Keywords: migration, labor market restrictions, EU accession, workplace safety
    JEL: J28 J32 J71
    Date: 2023–11
  50. By: Bruno Durand (CEROS - Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur les Organisations et la Stratégie - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre)
    Abstract: 2020 was the beginning of the Covid-19 health crisis and 2021 was very similar. In early 2022, as Europe was recovering, war broke out in Ukraine. These unexpected international events have impacted and still impact global supply chains. This exposed the vulnerability of supply chains, pointing to their lack of resilience. These events allowed us to assess again the relevance of the academic work conducted on the supply chain, during the period 2008-2010, following the major subprime crisis. At the time, for some managers, the time for relocations had come. Today, the time for regionalization seems to have come…
    Abstract: La covid-19 et la guerre en Ukraine : révélateurs de la vulnérabilité des supply chains internationales ? Résumé L'année 2020 a été marquée par le début de la crise sanitaire de la covid-19. L'année 2021 lui a ressemblé en tous points. Début 2022, alors que l'Europe s'en relevait, la guerre a éclaté en Ukraine. Ces évènements internationaux, inattendus, ont impacté et impactent toujours les supply chains mondiales. Ils nous ont révélé la vulnérabilité des chaînes d'approvisionnement, pointant leur manque de résilience. Ces évènements nous ont encore permis d'apprécier la pertinence des travaux académiques conduits sur la chaîne logistique, lors de la période 2008-2010, suite à la crise majeure des subprimes. À l'époque, pour certains managers, l'heure des relocalisations avait sonné. Aujourd'hui, c'est l'heure de la régionalisation qui semble arrivée…
    Keywords: global supply chains, vulnerability, Russian-Ukrainian war, regionalization, Covid-19, supply chains internationales, vulnérabilité, guerre en Ukraine, régionalisation
    Date: 2023
  51. By: Hanwei Huang; Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano
    Abstract: The Balassa's index of revealed comparative advantage does not necessarily reveal Ricardian comparative advantage. We propose an alternative sufficient statistics approach based on a quantitative standard trade model incorporating firm and product selection. We show that the model's micro foundations do not necessarily imply that the relevant data for the proposed sufficient statistics must include micro information, but its micro structure is needed to understand how only macro information can be used instead. Applying our approach to Chinese micro data and cross-country macro data, we find that firm behavior has far-reaching implications for understanding aggregate productivity and revealed comparative advantage.
    Keywords: revealed comparative advantage, sufficient statistics, firm heterogeneity, multi-product firms
    Date: 2023–11–28
  52. By: Davydova Altana (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University)
    Abstract: The paper compares the economic effects of the introduction of a national carbon taxation and the emission trading system (ETS) between the EAEU and BRICS countries in the medium-term. We also add to this group of countries Uzbekistan, which has an observer status in the EAEU, and Turkmenistan, trade and economic partner of the EAEU. The static computable general equilibrium model GTAP-E is used. Targets for reducing emissions are formulated on the basis countries’ intermediate goals, according to the national documents under the Paris Agreement. The results of simulations show that in terms of real GDP, countries such as Belarus, Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Brazil, and India prefer an emission trading scheme to national taxation. While for China, South Africa, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, participation in the ETS leads to a greater reduction in GDP. Since the second group of countries has lower abatement costs than the equilibrium carbon price under the ETS, in the ETS scenario they reduce emissions by a greater amount and sell emission permits. The analysis also shows which sectors increase production after the carbon regulation. A considerable increase in production and exports is observed in chemicals, nonferrous, ferrous metals in several BRICS and EAEU countries. Despite that these industries are energy-intensive, countries decrease emissions by reducing production in the energy sectors. These industries can be potential joint comparative advantages in the context of declining demand for traditional energy sources. The findings can be useful for the integration policy.
    Keywords: Computable general equilibrium model, Carbon regulation, ????2 emissions, BRICS, EAEU, integrational policy
    JEL: D58 F11 Q43 Q48 Q56
    Date: 2023–11
  53. By: Dahlström, Petter (Indek, Royal Institute of Technology); Lööf, Hans (Indek, Royal Institute of Technology); Sjöholm, Fredrik (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Stephan, Andreas (Linnaeus University)
    Abstract: The net-zero agreement on carbon emission from Paris 2015 gives a key role to fossil-free energy technologies with an expected multifold growth rate over the coming decades, when successively replacing oil, coal, and gas. In this paper, we delve into the EU’s competitive advantage in the evolving trade war in clean energy, investigate European strengths and weaknesses in innovation and production, and discuss the impact of the upcoming trade war on the global warming challenge. Our results show that the EU has a strong position in innovation capabilities in the strategic net-zero technologies. However, this is not matched by production capabilities: EU has only a few firms among the leading manufacturers in net-zero technologies.
    Keywords: Energy geopolitics; Net-zero technologies; Patents; Innovation Energy geopolitics; Net-zero technologies; Patents; Innovation
    JEL: F02 O18 Q50 R10
    Date: 2023–12–15
  54. By: Rakesh Padhan (Department of Management Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Uttarakhand, India.); K.P. Prabheesh (Department of Liberal Arts, Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad, India.)
    Abstract: This study empirically examines the nexus amongst financial integration, trade integration, and instability in various emerging and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies. Using newly constructed financial integration indices and the Toda-Yamamoto causality test, it is found that (i) tremendous changes occurred in the levels of financial and trade integration in these economies during the COVID-19 pandemic; (ii) in most cases, financial integration caused exchange rate volatility, inflation volatility, and interest rate volatility, while trade integration caused credit volatility, exchange rate volatility, and growth volatility; and (iii) not all types of integration caused instability, and portfolio integration caused exchange rate instability in most cases.
    Keywords: Financial Integration; Trade Integration; Instability; Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test
    JEL: F20 F21 F41 F65
    Date: 2023–11–29
  55. By: Marco Catola; Alessandra Chirco; Marcella Scrimitore
    Abstract: By developing a linear model in a two-country framework of international price competition, we show how the degree of product differentiation and the cross-country distribution of private firms affect the strategic privatization choices made by governments concerned with their own country’s welfare. More particularly, the work points out that sufficiently low product differentiation may lead public ownership to be optimally chosen to restrict competition in the country with the larger number of firms, and privatization to be global welfare enhancing in this case.
    Keywords: Mixed oligopoly, price competition, strategic privatization, internationalmarkets
    JEL: F23 L13 L32
    Date: 2023–12–01
  56. By: Christina Anderl; Guglielmo Maria Caporale
    Abstract: The recent Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted global supply chains and led to large increases in shipping costs. This paper first provides shipping cost mean and uncertainty measures by using the endogenous regime switching model with dynamic feedback and interactions developed by Chang et al. (2023). The uncertainty indicator measures overall risk in the shipping market and is shown to represent a useful addition to the existing set of economic and financial uncertainty indices. Both the shipping cost mean and uncertainty measures are then included in structural VAR models for the US, the UK and the euro area to examine the pass-through to headline CPI, core CPI, PPI and import price inflation vis-à-vis other global and domestic shocks. The results suggest that shipping cost uncertainty shocks have sizeable effects on all inflation measures and are characterised by a stronger pass-through than that of other domestic or global shocks. Unlike the latter, they also affect significantly core CPI inflation. These findings imply that shipping cost mean and uncertainty should also be considered by policymakers when assessing the global drivers of inflation.
    Keywords: shipping cost uncertainty, inflation pass-through, endogenous regime switching
    JEL: C13 E31 E37
    Date: 2023
  57. By: Catherine Locatelli (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Mehdi Abbas (PACTE - Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)
    Abstract: What are the effects of the intensification of energy interdependence between Russia, the world's second largest exporter of hydrocarbons, and China, the world's largest importer? Bilateral interdependence is the lever for the hybridization of the institutions governing international energy relations. Based on the issues of power and energy security, the intensification of interdependence leads to institutional changes, known as hybridisation, which are linked to a specific security-efficiency trade-off. Four factors shape this hybridisation: the structural context faced by the actors, the strategic behaviour of the state-firm complex, sectoral properties and existing institutional arrangements.
    Abstract: Quels sont les effets de l'intensification de l'interdépendance énergétique entre la Russie, deuxième exportateur mondial d'hydrocarbures, et la Chine, premier importateur mondial ? L'interdépendance bilatérale serait le levier de l'hybridation des institutions d'encadrement des relations énergétiques internationales. Centrée sur des enjeux de puissance et de sécurité énergétique, l'intensification de l'interdépendance s'accompagne de changements institutionnels, qualifiés d'hybridation, fondés sur un arbitrage sécurité-efficience spécifique. Quatre facteurs paramètrent cette hybridation : le contexte structurel auquel font face les acteurs, le comportement stratégique du complexe Etat-Entreprises, les propriétés sectorielles et les arrangements institutionnels existants.
    Keywords: Hybridization, Energy interdependence, Energy security, Hybridation, Interdépendance énergétique, Sécurité énergétique
    Date: 2023
  58. By: Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki; Deschryvere, Matthias; Koski, Heli; Kuusi, Tero
    Abstract: Abstract Company Resilience in the era of Globalization project looked at the following three themes: companies’ ability to survive, the impact of crisis on companies and policy instruments related to resilience. This brief presents the main findings and their policy implications. This project was carried out in cooperation between Etla and VTT. See also Etla Working Paper nro 111 Jobs, Workers, and Firms: Dissecting the Labour Market Effects of Finland’s COVID-19 Subsidy Program.
    Keywords: Globalization, Internationalization, Crisis, Survival, Resilience
    JEL: F14 H25 F6
    Date: 2023–12–14
  59. By: Francesco Fasani (University of Milan); Tomamso Frattini (University of Milan); Maxime Pirot (University of Milan)
    Abstract: Is naturalization an effective tool to boost refugees’ labor market integration? We address this novel empirical question by exploring survey data from 21 European countries and leveraging variation in citizenship laws across countries, time, and migrant groups as a source of exogenous variation in the probability of naturalization. We find that obtaining citizen status allows refugees to close their gaps in labor market outcomes relative to non refugee migrants while having non-significant effects on the latter group. We then further explore the heterogeneity of returns to citizenship in a Marginal Treatment Effect framework, showing that migrants with the lowest propensity to naturalize would benefit the most if they did. This reverse selection on gains can be explained by policy features that make it harder for more vulnerable migrant groups to obtain citizenship, suggesting that a relaxation of eligibility constraints would yield benefits for both migrants and host societies.
    Keywords: Forced migration, citizenship, asylum policy
    JEL: J15 J61 F22
    Date: 2023–12
  60. By: Bérard, Guillaume; Freitas, Dimitria; Verma, Priyam
    Abstract: Xu (2022) estimates the causal impact of bank failures on the level of trades with a staggered difference-in-differences design and an IV strategy with Bartik instrument, using the 1866 banking crisis as a quasi-natural experiment. Findings, based on historical data on the trades and loans between London banks and banks around the world, show that countries exposed to bank failures in London immediately exported significantly less and did not recover their lost growth relative to unexposed places. Moreover, the effect lasted for decades. First, we reproduce the paper's main findings by running the original code and uncover three issues, one of which that slightly affects the main estimates reported in the study. Second, we test the robustness of the results to (1) removing weights from the regressions, (2) using a spatial HAC correction for the standard errors, and (3) implementing a method for possibly heterogeneous treatment effects with a staggered difference-indifferences design. Overall, we conclude that the main findings are valid and robust.
    Keywords: Replication, Robustness, Trade, Bank failures, Historical data, Difference-in-differences
    JEL: F14 G01 G21 N20
    Date: 2023
  61. By: Zhou, Peng (Cardiff Business School); Guo, Dong
    Abstract: Facing the sanctions from the West since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russia quickly converged to a strong counter-sanction strategy. The US and the EU staggered the strengths of sanctions in turns, with the EU first imposing relatively stronger commercial sanctions first and the US relaying with stronger financial sanctions later. Using US-EU-Russia sanctions as an example, we develop a multilateral, evolutionary game to capture the strategic complementarity between the sanctioners and the sanctionee, as well as the strategic substitutability between the leading sanctioner and the co-sanctioner. In an extended model, the sanction technology is introduced to endogenize how sanctions are designed before deployment. The model is then calibrated to match the summarized stylized facts, to demonstrate the simulated evolutionary paths, and to verify the derived strategic dependence.
    Keywords: Sanction; Strategic Dependence; Evolutionary Game Theory
    Date: 2023–12
  62. By: Adolphe Badiel (LINCS - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire en études culturelles - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The commodity is a cultural attribute of some things that have the property of being exchangeable; it has a social trajectory that consists of its election as such or of its exclusion, hence the thesis of its social life. This social life influences the stability of societies. In the era of globalization, reflecting the interconnection of different societies, practices around the commodity tend to obscure this dimension, undermine lifestyles, and generate violence in both production and consumption areas. Globalization is essentially based on an economic conception of the world, at once bipolar and dichotomous, which is proving to be erroneous today. This paper proposes a new understanding of socialization at the global scale and its ethical implications: it argues that world socialization is an extra-social dynamic that has its source in the externalization of social violence. Because ethics has become a direct political action, social neutrality is defended here as the ethical principle of the commodity.
    Abstract: La marchandise est un attribut culturel de certains objets qui ont la propriété d'être échangeables ; elle a une trajectoire sociale qui consiste en son identification comme telle ou en son exclusion, d'où sa biographie sociale. Cette vie sociale influence l'équilibre des sociétés. À l'ère de la globalisation, traduisant une interconnexion des différentes sociétés, les pratiques commerciales tendent à occulter cette dimension, subvertissent les modes de vie et génèrent de la violence dans les zones de production et de consommation. La globalisation fonctionne sur une conception essentiellement économique d'un monde, à la fois bipolaire et dichotomique, qui se révèle erronée de nos jours. Cette approche propose une nouvelle compréhension de la socialisation à l'échelle du monde et en tire ses conséquences éthiques : elle essaie de comprendre la mondialisation comme une dynamique extra-sociale qui prend sa source dans l'externalisation de la violence sociale. Parce que l'éthique est devenue une action politique directe, la neutralité sociale est ici défendue comme le fondement éthique de la marchandise.
    Keywords: globalization, world socialization, North-South binarity, commodity ethics, social neutrality, mondialisation, globalisation, binarité Nord-Sud, éthique de la marchandise, neutralité sociale
    Date: 2023
  63. By: Kyung Min Lee; Mee Jung Kim; J. David Brown; John S. Earle; Zhen Liu
    Abstract: We evaluate the contributions of immigrant entrepreneurs to innovation in the U.S. using linked survey-administrative data on 199, 000 firms with a rich set of innovation measures and other firm and owner characteristics. We find that not only are immigrants more likely than natives to own businesses, but on average their firms display more innovation activities and outcomes. Immigrant owned firms are particularly more likely to create completely new products, improve previous products, use new processes, and engage in both basic and applied R&D, and their efforts are reflected in substantially higher levels of patents and productivity. Immigrant owners are slightly less likely than natives to imitate products of others and to hire more employees. Delving into potential explanations of the immigrant-native differences, we study other characteristics of entrepreneurs, access to finance, choice of industry, immigrant self-selection, and effects of diversity. We find that the immigrant innovation advantage is robust to controlling for detailed characteristics of firms and owners, it holds in both high-tech and non-high-tech industries and, with the exception of productivity, it tends to be even stronger in firms owned by diverse immigrant-native teams and by diverse immigrants from different countries. The evidence from nearly all measures that immigrants tend to operate more innovative and productive firms, together with the higher share of business ownership by immigrants, implies large contributions to U.S. innovation and growth.
    Date: 2023–11
  64. By: Amelia Litania (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Giulia Ajmone Marsan (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA))
    Abstract: The advancement of technology and borderless working accelerated by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has pushed the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to rethink its strategy in the race for global talent. ASEAN needs to address domestic challenges and gaps in talent and skills development. The rise of 'digital nomads' and digital talent mobility can provide a significant boost to ASEAN's competitiveness on the global stage by contributing to innovation, business creation, and economic growth. This brief explores approaches taken by ASEAN countries to attract and retain global talent and digital nomads, highlighting characteristics of digital nomad and talent visas as well as strategic policies ASEAN must consider to create a vibrant ecosystem in this sphere.
    Date: 2023–11–27
  65. By: Pierfederico Asdrubali
    Abstract: A well-functioning and efficient Venture Capital (VC) market is one of the key pillars to enhance European medium- and long-term economic growth, through the creation of new businesses and sustainable employment, the improvement of managerial practices and increased capital investments, which boost innovation, productivity and competitiveness. These conditions are enhanced in the presence of an integrated VC market, which improves capital allocation, generates economies of scale and spurs competition and diversification of financing sources.This paper analyses cross-border VC flows in Europe in the 2007-2020 period, highlighting the deep fragmentation of the European market, with each country featuring its own peculiarities and evident disparities, and Northern European countries, the UK, and Ireland witnessing significantly higher cross-border volumes than Eastern-European and Mediterranean countries. Overall, the analysis of cross-border investments in the industry confirms that they are still rather infrequent, mainly due to local bias, with the domestic component accounting on average for 64.0% of the total VC activity and cross-border investments within Europe accounting on average for only 23.1%. Using a Grubel-Lloyd index, we find that the highest values of two-way flows of venture capital are concentrated in the major financial centres, with a prominent role of the United Kingdom. Furthermore, theory-grounded gravity equations investigate the determinants of cross-border VC flows, exploring, inter alia, the role of different financial structures across countries. Besides GDP (or market capitalisation) and distance, the quality of institutions and especially the degree of global financial integration do play a role in shaping cross-border VC flows. The uneven development of the financial market within Europe ‒ with a market-based country cluster distinct from a bank-based country cluster ‒ appears to matter little for cross-border VC flows.
    JEL: C58 F36 G24
    Date: 2023–11
  66. By: Nastasia Henry (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France); Alain Venditti (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France)
    Abstract: To what extent protectionism affects growth and (de)stabilizes the economies? Since 2018, some countries have resorted to protectionist measures as the United States. Although the impacts of protectionism on growth have been widely explored without reaching a consensus, few has been said on its impacts on macroeconomic stability. The present paper attempts to gauge more precisely its implications using a Barro-type (1990) endogenous growth model with public debt and credit constraint where tariffs are a proxy of protectionism. Our main result is to show that when the debt level is high, and the share of foreign goods in total consumption is large enough, increasing tariffs may have a dramatic destabilizing effect generating some expectation coordination failure between multiple equilibria and the possible existence of large self-fulfilling fluctuations. We also exhibit some trade-off between tariffs and growth as tariffs are beneficial only to the low growth equilibrium which may only appear in the globally indeterminate case. We also propose some numerical illustrations confirming the destabilizing impact of tariffs in the case of the US economy. We finally propose an Event Study analysis to confront our results. While our effects appear short lasting, two quarters, we show that the implementation of protectionism destabilizes the US economy in the short run.
    Keywords: public debt, tariffs, small open economy, credit constraint, global and local indeterminacy
    JEL: C62 E32 F13 F34 F43 O41
    Date: 2023–11
  67. By: Laurent Bossavie (World Bank); Joseph-Simon Görlach (Bocconi University); Çağlar Özden (World Bank); He Wang
    Abstract: This paper examines international temporary migration as an intermediary step among aspiring entrepreneurs to accumulate the needed capital when they face credit constraints at home. The analysis is based on a representative dataset of lifetime employment histories of return migrants from Bangladesh. After establishing the credit constraints that potential entrepreneurs face, the paper shows that non-agricultural self-employment rates are significantly higher among returning migrants over half versus around 20% of non-migrants. Most migrants transition into self-employment by using their savings from abroad as the main source of financing. The paper then offers, for the first time, a detailed account of the financial costs and benefits of international migration. Our findings suggest that temporary migration can contribute to the structural transformation of lower-income countries by enabling credit-constrained workers to enter into non-agricultural entrepreneurship.
    Keywords: Temporary migration, credit constraints, risky investment, entrepreneurship
    Date: 2023–12
  68. By: Mariko Hatase (Director and senior economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (currently, Professor, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, E-mail:
    Abstract: Perceptions of the effects of exchange rate fluctuations may influence policymaking processes. We examine how people understood the relationship between exchange rates and exports taking into account the interwar period in Japan, when exchange rates fluctuated and a policy debate regarding returning to the gold standard was active, as an example. The results of textual analysis drawing on newspaper articles from 1925 to 1929 assure that people clearly recognised a relationship between exchange rates and exports, while they also paid attention to the relationship between exchange rates and imports. By detailed analysis of historical materials of major export sectors, namely raw silk and cotton yarns and cotton fabrics, we find that neither sector preferred weak foreign exchange rates and they even called for the gold standard with pre-WWI parity with stronger yen rates. The results of the analyses on profit structures of those sectors show that the producers of raw silk preferred stable exchange rates to a cheaper yen because of the risk transfer system and the market structure. The results also indicate that cotton yarn and fabric sectors preferred a stronger yen for cheaper raw materials with the considerable share of domestic sales of their products.
    Keywords: Exchange rate, Gold standard, Exports, Imports
    JEL: F31 F33 N15 N65
    Date: 2023–12
  69. By: Vanesa Jorda; Miguel Niño-Zarazúa; Laurence Roope; Finn Tarp
    Abstract: This paper presents the first global and regional estimates of polarization and bipolarization spanning the period 1960-2020. The study relies on group data to implement a flexible parametric model to obtain the global income distribution and polarization estimates. The study introduces a battery of sensitivity tests to assess the reliability of polarization estimates under various assumptions, with particular emphasis on the impact of survey under-coverage of top incomes on global polarization levels and trends.
    Keywords: Income distribution, Bipolarization, Polarization
    Date: 2023
  70. By: Montes Rojas Gabriel; Carrera Jorge; Panigo Demián; Solla Mariquena; Toledo Fernando
    Abstract: We study the relationship between income inequality and external wealth using dynamic panel data models with annual observations of 88 emerging and developing economies for the period 1970-2020. We find evidence in favor of a significant and positive association between inequality indicators and net external wealth. This relationship is statistically significant for all income inequality measures and net external wealth variables. If the Top 1 of the richest individuals in a given country increments their share by 1 percentage point this will produce an average same-year increment in net foreign assets of 0.45% in terms of the country’s GDP. The long-run effect is more than double in magnitude (1.05% of GDP). For the Top 10, the long-run effect increases tenfold (11.6% of GDP). When disaggregated into foreign assets and liabilities, we find a heterogeneous behavior of the financial elites. These findings reveal that financialized elites have a greater propensity to accumulate external wealth than the rest of the population.
    JEL: O15 E21
    Date: 2023–11
  71. By: Baum, Christopher F. (Boston College, DIW Berlin and CESIS); Lööf, Hans (Royal Institute of Technology and CESIS); Stephan, Andreas (Linnaeus University and DIW Berlin); Zimmermann, Klaus F. (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, CEPR and GLO)
    Abstract: This paper examines the wage earnings of fully-employed refugee immigrants in Sweden. Using administrative employer-employee data from 1990 and onwards, about 100, 000 refugee immigrants who arrived between 1980 and 1996 and were granted asylum are compared to a matched sample of native-born workers. Employing recentered influence function (RIF) quantile regressions for the period 2011–2015 to wage earnings, the occupational task-based Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition approach shows that refugees perform better than natives at the median wage, controlling for individual and firm characteristics. This overperformance is due to female refugee immigrants, who have higher wages than comparable native-born female peers up to the 8th decile of the wage distribution. Refugee immigrant females perform better than native females across all occupational tasks studied, including non-routine cognitive tasks. A remarkable similarity exists in the relative wage distributions among various refugee groups, suggesting that cultural differences and the length of time spent in the host country do not significantly affect their labor market performance.
    Keywords: refugees; wage earnings gap; occupational sorting; employer-employee data; correlated random effects model; Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition
    JEL: C23 F22 J24 J60 O15
    Date: 2023–12–18
  72. By: António Afonso; Valérie Mignon; Jamel Saadaoui
    Abstract: We assess the impact of China’s bilateral political relations with three main trading partners—the US, Germany, and the UK—on current account balances and exchange rates, over the 1960Q1-2022Q4 period. Relying on the lag-augmented VAR approach with time-varying Granger causality tests, we find that political relationships with China strongly matter in explaining the dynamics of current accounts and exchange rates. Such relationships cause the evolution of the exchange rate (except in the UK) and the current account; these causal links being time-varying for the US and the UK and robust over the entire period for Germany. These findings suggest that policymakers should account for bilateral political relationships to understand the global macroeconomic consequences of political tensions.
    Keywords: Political relations; time-varying causality; lag-augmented vector autoregression; China.
    JEL: C22 F51 Q41
    Date: 2023–11
  73. By: Dariya, Akimkina; Oleg, Khrustalev; Evgeniy, Khrustalev
    Abstract: The long-term nature of transformational crisis processes caused by accelerated scientific and technological progress, the coronavirus epidemic, and political conflicts increases significantly uncertainty and the need to organize domestic production of high-tech components. The research investigates how the shortage of semiconductors due to the epidemic and territorial issues has affected sectors that depend on semiconductors. The importance of autonomy for the successful and ongoing functioning of the high-tech industry is demonstrated by the example of the automotive industry. The article discusses aspects of the semiconductor industry's production organization, including the complex hierarchical structure that proves how increasing import substitution is crucial to improving Russia's competitiveness and national security and removing external pressure points on the country. A number of recommendations for the domestic semiconductor industry will help to boost the process of import substitution, develop science-intensive and high-tech industries in Russia, and increase competitiveness in the global market
    Keywords: science-intensive industry, sanctions, import substitution, semiconductors industry
    JEL: O14
    Date: 2023–02–01
  74. By: Masako Ikefuji; Yoshiyasu Ono
    Abstract: Global warming is a serious and acute threat to our planet, but, when negotiating the allocation of permissible carbon emissions, conflicts of interest exist between developed and developing countries. Developing countries insist that global warming is the result of prolonged pollution emissions by developed countries, while developed countries demand that developing countries make efforts comparable to their own to reduce carbon emissions. They both generally believe that stricter emission limits will burden their economies because of the extra abatement costs required. We use a two-country model with wealth preferences and find that the effects of a country’s emission limit on the two countries’ real consumption and pollution emissions differ, depending on the combination of their business situations. If both countries achieve full employment, one country’s stricter emission limit decreases both countries’ real consumption, as expected. However, if one country faces aggregate demand stagnation and the other achieves full employment, a stricter emission limit imposed by the stagnant country increases both countries’ real consumption.
    Date: 2023–11
  75. By: Matteo Maggiori; Brent Neiman; Jesse Schreger
    Abstract: We explore the consequences of global capital market segmentation by currency for the optimal currency composition of borrowing by firms. Global bond portfolios are driven by the currency of denomination of assets as investors prefer to lend in their home currency or the international currency, the US Dollar. Larger and more productive firms select into foreign currency issuance. International segmentation results in a quantity-dimension of the exorbitant privilege whereby US firms that only issue in the domestic currency benefit from being able to more easily borrow from global investors.
    JEL: F3 G15
    Date: 2023–11
  76. By: Diego Comin; Robert C. Johnson; Callum J. Jones
    Abstract: We develop a multisector, open economy, New Keynesian framework to evaluate how potentially binding capacity constraints, and shocks to them, shape inflation. We show that binding constraints for domestic and foreign producers shift domestic and import price Phillips Curves up, similar to reduced-form markup shocks. Further, data on prices and quantities together identify whether constraints bind due to increased demand or reductions in capacity. Applying the model to interpret recent US data, we find that binding constraints explain half of the increase in inflation during 2021-2022. In particular, tight capacity served to amplify the impact of loose monetary policy in 2021, fueling the inflation takeoff.
    Keywords: Monetary policy; Goods constraints; Import constraint; Inflation; Occasionally binding constraint; Supply chain constraints
    JEL: E30 E50
    Date: 2023–11–22
  77. By: Kristin F. Butcher; Lucas Cain; Camillo Garcia-Jimeno; Ryan Perry
    Abstract: Standard estimates based on the main household survey used to shed light on labor markets—the Current Population Survey (CPS)—suggest that after a significant drop during the pandemic, recent rapid growth has brought the foreign-born population back to, or above, levels predicted by the pre-pandemic trend. However, we document that the weighting factors used to make the CPS nationally representative have recently displayed some unusual movements and conclude that standard estimates of the foreign-born population may currently be too high. We also show that recent labor market indicators are inconsistent with increased foreign-born induced slack.
    Date: 2023–10–09
  78. By: Jongrim Ha; M. Ayhan Kose; Franziska Ohnsorge; Hakan Yilmazkuday
    Abstract: This paper examines the drivers of fluctuations in global inflation, defined as a common factor across monthly headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation in G7 countries, over the past half-century. We estimate a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model where a wide range of shocks, including global demand, supply, oil price, and interest rate shocks, are identified through narrative sign restrictions motivated by the predictions of a simple dynamic general equilibrium model. We report three main results. First, oil price shocks followed by global demand shocks explained the lion’s share of variation in global inflation. Second, the contribution of global demand and oil price shocks increased over time, from 56 percent during 1970-1985 to 65 percent during 2001-2022, whereas the importance of global supply shocks declined. Since the pandemic, global demand and oil price shocks have accounted for most of the variation in global inflation. Finally, oil price shocks played a much smaller role in global core CPI inflation variation, for which global supply shocks were the main source of variation. These results are robust to various sensitivity exercises, including alternative definitions of global variables, different samples of countries, and additional narrative restrictions.
    Keywords: oil prices, demand shocks, supply shocks, interest rate shocks
    JEL: E31 E32 Q43
    Date: 2023–12
  79. By: Li, Jinkai; Luo, Erga; Cockx, B.
    Abstract: In 2015, 15% of all children in China were left behind in the countryside because at least one of their parents migrated to a city. We implement an event study analysis between 2010 and 2018 on five waves of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) to investigate the dynamic effects of parental migration on the health of left behind young children (LBC). While we find a gradual increase in medical expenditures, we do not detect any significant impact on the incidence of sickness. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the incidence of overweight declines gradually since their parents’ first migration and reports suggestive evidence for mental health improvement. We argue that these long-term positive effects on health and health consumption can be explained by the transitory nature of migration, the high-quality substitution of the caregiver role by grandparents, and by a reorientation in family expenditures, partly induced by government policy.
    JEL: I15 J10 J61
    Date: 2023–12–18
  80. By: Garcia-Cicco Javier; Bucacos Elizabeth; Mello Miguel
    Abstract: We study the effects of exchange rate interventions in Uruguay on relevant macroeconomic variables such as the exchange rate, inflation, activity, and interest rates. Instead of attempting to identify exogenous variations in the intervention policy (a frequent strategy in the related literature, but that raises many endogeneity concerns), we investigate the effect of interventions in dampening the impact of external shocks that are relevant determinants of exchange rate movements. This estimation is carried out through a novel econometric tool called constrained impulse response functions, which allows to construct counterfactual scenarios that are locally valid (i.e. marginal effects around average responses). We find that interventions can help dampen exchange rate effects, and may have non-trivial effects inflation as well, but generally no consequences in terms of activity. Importantly, these effects depend on the type and sign of the external shock under consideration.
    JEL: E58 E42
    Date: 2023–11
  81. By: Matthew Soener; Olivier Godechot (Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Mirna Safi (Sciences Po - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: We ask how an increasing share of women or migrants in the workplace affects wages for different groups depending on market‐based or relational outcomes. Using data on nearly every French employee and workplace, we propose four theoretically informed outcomes. We do not find an increase in the share of women or migrants provokes a wage backlash but that these groups instead have some "power in numbers." Yet, most importantly, our results show demographic changes are conditioned by class position through a surplus appropriation mechanism. The share of women and the share of migrants in the professional and managerial class raise wages within this class especially for men and migrants in this class, respectively. We also find the entry of migrant workers puts downward pressure on worker wages—both natives and migrants. We offer an interpretation of these results based on the redistribution of labor costs when hiring employees like women and migrants who earn less on average.
    Date: 2023–10–16
  82. By: Duong, Khanh; Nguyen Phuc Van
    Abstract: Technological advancements are often viewed as drivers of green growth, but they also carry the potential to widen social inequality, particularly in job automation and the transformation of work routines. This study delves into the relationship between technology and inclusive growth, drawing on global data. We introduce a new concept called 'Inequality-Stabilizing Growth' (ISG), which balances economic progress with social equity. The ISG is calculated by combining factors that both decrease and increase inequality within total growth. Our findings indicate that technology or innovation alone does not necessarily lead to greater social equality or inclusive growth. In developed countries, the transfer of technology supports growth that includes more people, but this is not consistently the case in developing nations. The research also highlights a crucial point: focusing solely on growth without inclusive policies may worsen inequality, hindering future economic development. To counter this, we recommend policies that enhance education and financial growth, adapted to different stages of national development, and include fertility control measures in less developed areas. These factors promote social mobility, which is considered a 'key to curbing inequality.'
    Keywords: innovation, globalisation, inclusive growth, unified growth theory
    JEL: C33 D63 F63
    Date: 2023

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