nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2023‒11‒13
thirty-one papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici, Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. The E-Commerce and Global Value Chains By Yea, Sangjun; Lee, Seungrae
  2. Optimal Sub-Saharan and European trade policy response to the use of the food weapon by Russia: do regional taste variations count? By Yacine Ouahioune
  3. Gravity with History: On Incumbency Effects in International Trade By Peter Egger; Reto Foellmi; Ulrich Schetter; David Torun
  4. Imported Input Content of Production and Real Exchange Rate Elasticity of Exports: The Case of Türkiye By Demirhan Demir; Selçuk Gül; Abdullah Kazdal
  5. Trends and Inequality in Lifetime Earnings in France By Berthou Antoine
  6. The Empire Project: Trade Policy in Interwar Canada By Markus Lampe; Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke; Lorenz Reiter; Yoto V. Yotov
  7. Monthly Report No. 4/2023 By Vasily Astrov; Olga Pindyuk; Maryna Tverdostup; Sergey Utkin
  8. The distributional effects of trade: Theory and evidence from the United States By Kirill Borusyak; Xavier Jaravel
  9. International Spillovers of Quality Regulations By Ariel Weinberger; Luca Macedoni
  10. Migration and Productivity in the UK: An Analysis of Employee Payroll Data By Nam, Hoseung; Portes, Jonathan
  11. The Unintended Consequences of Trade Protection on the Environment By Taipeng Li; Lorenzo Trimarchi; Guohao Yang; Rui Xie
  12. Climate change and migration: the case of Africa By Bruno Conte
  13. Are sanctions for losers? A network study of trade sanctions By Fabio Ashtar Telarico
  14. The Aggregate Effects of Sectoral Shocks in an Open Economy By Philippe Andrade; Martin Arazi; Viacheslav Sheremirov
  15. Extended producer responsibility and trade flows in waste: The case of batteries By Compagnoni, Marco; Grazzi, Marco; Pieri, Fabio; Tomasi, Chiara
  16. Projecting UK net migration By Tessa Hall; Alan Manning; Madeleine Sumption
  17. Replacing Customs Revenue with Taxes on Income and Domestic Consumption: The South African Experience By Andreas Freytag; Krige Siebrits
  18. The Evolution of the European Union's China Strategy: Challenges in an era of economic security (Japanese) By TSURUOKA Michito
  19. R&D Subsidy and Import Substitution: Growing in the Shadow of Protection By Gustavo de Souza
  20. Relationship between inequality and economic growth in countries highly dependent on oil exports By Shapor, Maria (Шапор, Мария)
  21. Exports and firm survival in times of COVID-19 – Evidence from eight European countries By Joachim Wagner
  22. Questionnaire Survey on Security Export Control Systems at Universities (Japanese) By TEZUKA Saori; IGARASHI Akira
  23. Turkey in the Black Sea region: Ankara's reactions to the war in Ukraine against the background of regional dynamics and global confrontation By Isachenko, Daria
  24. Making renewable energies drivers of competitiveness in the EU Outermost Regions By OECD
  25. Innovative oceans: Drivers of internationalisation for the EU Outermost regions By OECD
  26. Macroeconomic Impacts of Immigration in the Canadian Atlantic Region: An Empirical Analysis Using the Focus Model By Dungan, Peter; Fang, Tony; Gunderson, Morley; Murphy, Steve
  27. The direct and indirect economic consequences of climate damage in poor countries By John Knight
  28. Economics for the Global Economic Order: The Tragedy of Epic Fail Equilibria By Shiro Armstrong; Danny Quah
  29. Predicting irregular migration: High hopes, meagre results By Angenendt, Steffen; Koch, Anne; Tjaden, Jasper Dag
  30. Internationalisation, specialisation and technological collaboration in the EU Outermost Regions: A patent data-based analysis By OECD
  31. Global energy crisis: impact on the global economy By Ozili, Peterson K

  1. By: Yea, Sangjun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Lee, Seungrae (Hankuk University of Foreign Studies)
    Abstract: We investigated the impact of e-commerce on global value chains (GVC). Using firm-level data from Korea for the period 2006-2014, we found that firms that adopted an integrated e-commerce management system had a significantly higher probability of participating in GVC, particularly for firms with productivity levels below the upper quartile. We also examined the implications of firm-level e-commerce participation for the aggregate GVC trade using a theoretical model. The model showed that e-commerce facilitates GVC trade and makes the trade volume more responsive to trade costs. From these results, we conclude that supporting SMEs in their digital transformation and e-commerce participation can be effective in promoting SMEs' participation in GVC. We also highlight that efforts to reduce trade costs remain imperative, even as e-commerce becomes more prevalent.
    Keywords: E-Commerce; Digital Trade; Global Value Chain; GVC
    Date: 2023–10–06
  2. By: Yacine Ouahioune
    Abstract: Short-term trade restrictions amidst world geopolitical crises have greatly contributed to recent global surges in staple prices. Non-cooperative trade policies such as exports bans in 2022 fed into debates about the relationship between food security and trade: although trade is essential to ensure sufficient supply in net-importing countries, it also makes them more vulnerable to external supply shocks. This essay thus examines the mechanisms at play in the diffusion of supply shocks through trade networks, in order to draw conclusions relevant to short-term trade policies protecting food security. It focuses on optimal responses of Sub-Saharan Africa and the European Union to policy shocks happening in Ukraine and Russia. Building on mainstream trade theory, it accounts for worldwide trade and consumption patterns to design ad hoc trade policies for short-term resilience. To do so, I design a three-regions, three-goods microfounded model of trade in which food preferences vary across regions. This model illustrates the point that net importing regions are affected by the demand from other parts of the world with similar preferences. In the face of a price shock, the model implies that trade restrictions in a large importing region may benefit consumers in other importing regions, through both price and substitution channels. I then test my results in a general equilibrium model and simulate a shock on wheat and grain exports from Russia and Ukraine in the Global Trade Analysis Project’s model (GTAP). In this setting, Sub Saharan countries are affected by the higher world price and by the demand of European consumers, which competes with demand from domestic African consumers. I show that, in this context, European import tariffs have the potential to improve welfare in Africa’s food importing countries.
    Keywords: cascading effects , Sub-Saharan Africa , Food security , trade policy , European Union , regional tastes
    Date: 2023
  3. By: Peter Egger; Reto Foellmi; Ulrich Schetter (Center for International Development at Harvard University); David Torun
    Abstract: We introduce incumbency effects into a tractable dynamic model of international trade. The framework nests the canonical Melitz (2003)-Chaney (2008) model as a special case. The key novelty is that fixed costs of market access decrease with tenure. As a consequence, there is less market exit and entry in response to a shock. We derive a gravity equation and show that, ceteris paribus, countries that liberalized their trade relationship earlier trade more today. We provide supporting evidence for the underlying mechanism and derive an augmented ACR formula (Arkolakis et al., 2012) for the gains from trade that accounts for incumbency effects. A quantitative analysis suggests that our mechanism can explain up to 25% of countries’ home shares and that the gains from trade are, on average, 10% larger when accounting for incumbency effects. The analysis further reveals novel distributional effects of trade that benefit real wages but reduce profits.
    Keywords: incumbency effects, sunk cost of market access, gravity equation, gains from trade, home bias, path dependence
    JEL: F12 F14 F15 F17
    Date: 2023–07
  4. By: Demirhan Demir; Selçuk Gül; Abdullah Kazdal
    Abstract: Advances in the integration to global value chains lead the use of imported inputs in production to increase. While the use of foreign intermediate products in domestic production may be linked with productivity gains over the medium-to-long term, the extent of the import dependency in production may also matter, especially from a trade-elasticity perspective. This study examines whether the import dependency of production in the manufacturing sectors in Türkiye plays a role in the relationship between real exchange rate movements and variations in export volume. Estimations regarding the short-run and long-run dynamics and the impulse response functions from the local projections provide evidence that the degree of import dependency does matter in terms of the responsiveness of export demand to the real exchange rate dynamics. Manufacturing sectors with relatively lower import dependency have higher real exchange rate elasticity of exports, which indicates that the firms in those sectors, on average, are more elastic in the price determination process with respect to the real exchange rate fluctuations. On the other hand, the results of the study show that the main determinant of Türkiye’s exports is the variations in external demand, and the effect of real exchange rate movements on export volume is relatively limited.
    Keywords: Import requirement, Real exchange rate elasticity, Local projections
    JEL: C23 F14 F31 L60
    Date: 2023
  5. By: Berthou Antoine
    Abstract: This paper shows that international sanctions can undermine the role of the US dollar in trade invoicing. The analysis is based on the episode of international sanctions targeting Russia after the invasion of regions of Ukraine in 2014. While European sanctions increased trade costs for firms located in the EU and conducting transactions with Russia, sanctions imposed by the United States affected firms located in third countries due to the extra-territoriality of the US law. This created an incentive to diversify away from the US dollar to avoid these sanctions when exporting to target countries such as Russia. The empirical exercise relies on detailed customs data for France with information on the currency of invoicing by transaction. Following the start of the Western sanctions on Russia in 2014, the propensity of French exporters to invoice their contracts in US dollars decreased. Estimation results highlight the role played by (i) strategic complementarities between firms, (ii) the diversification of Russian foreign reserves, (iii) US secondary sanctions targeting exports of dual-use goods, and (iv) threats of US secondary sanctions faced by exporters’ banks.
    Keywords: Dollar dominance, Currency Invoicing, International Sanctions
    JEL: F10 F14 F44
    Date: 2023
  6. By: Markus Lampe; Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke; Lorenz Reiter; Yoto V. Yotov
    Abstract: This paper uses a new dataset on the universe of Canadian imports and tariffs between 1924 and 1936, disaggregated into 1697 goods originating in 112 countries, to analyze the impact on Canadian imports of interwar Canadian trade policy, including the 1932 Ottawa trade agreements. Rather than use a dummy variable approach, we compute the impact of individual tariffs which varied substantially across goods, trade partners, and time. We develop a novel method of controlling for multilateral resistances in the context of a one-country dataset, and perform a variety of counterfactual exercises to determine the impact of tariffs on trade flows. The overall impact of post-1929 tar iff shifts, including the 1932 agreements, was relatively small, reflecting the fact that Canadian trade policy was already highly protectionist: trade agreements can have het erogenous effects on participants because the shocks involved are different. Compared with a free trade counterfactual, the impact of the overall structure of protection on the level and composition of trade was large.
    Date: 2023–05–05
  7. By: Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Maryna Tverdostup (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sergey Utkin
    Abstract: Chart of the Month Ukrainian refugees in the Austrian labour market by Maryna Tverdostup Opinion Corner Russia’s war in Ukraine Stalemate but no ceasefire by Sergey Utkin A ‘war of attrition’ is among the most common descriptions used for the ongoing military stand-off in Ukraine. Both sides are sticking to their territorial ambitions, which are inherently irreconcilable. The widespread analytical conclusions about the future are based on extrapolation from the current situation. And while history rarely develops in a linear way for long, there is indeed good reason to believe that a potential defining moment in the war will come no earlier than next year, which means more casualties and destruction ahead. Trade relations of Eastern Europe with the EU and other global players by Vasily Astrov For most East European countries, the EU is far and away their most important trading partner – although in some post-Soviet countries the EU has been losing out to Russia. The EU is also far more ambitious than other global players with respect to trade integration arrangements with the region, and the exports of East European countries to the EU are generally more advanced than are their exports to Russia. However, the differences in trade complementarity on the export and on the import side mean that the benefits of trade integration tend to be asymmetric the EU emerges as the main beneficiary, while the competitiveness of East European economies often does not improve fundamentally. Financial linkages of Eastern Europe with the EU and other global players by Olga Pindyuk The EU remains the main source of capital for Eastern Europe, in terms of both FDI and banking sector domination. Besides, the bloc is an important source of budgetary support for the region and has provided unprecedented assistance to Ukraine since the start of the war. However, China’s influence in the region has also been growing, especially in the Western Balkans and Turkey, largely within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe
    Keywords: refugees, labour market, Russia’s war in Ukraine, foreign policy, prospects for ceasefire, trade importance, commodity structure of trade, free trade agreements, trade complementarity, foreign direct investment, Belt and Road Initiative, banking sector, budget support
    Date: 2023–04
  8. By: Kirill Borusyak; Xavier Jaravel
    Abstract: How much do consumption patterns matter for the impact of international trade on inequality? In neoclassical trade models, the effects of trade shocks on consumers' purchasing power are governed by the shares of imports in consumer expenditures, under no parametric assumptions on preferences and technology. This paper provides in-depth measurement of import shares across the income distribution in the United States, using new datasets linking expenditure and customs microdata. Contrary to common wisdom, we find that import shares are flat at throughout the income distribution: the purchasing-power gains from lower trade costs are distributionally neutral. Accounting for changes in wages in addition to prices in a unified nonparametric framework, we find substantial distributional effects that arise within, but not across, income and education groups. There is little impact of a fall in trade costs on inequality, even though trade shocks generate winners and losers at all income levels, via wage changes.
    Keywords: trade liberalization, distributional effects, inequality, non-homothetic preferences
    Date: 2023–10–20
  9. By: Ariel Weinberger (George Washington University); Luca Macedoni (Aarhus University)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the positive international spillover effects of non-discriminatory product regulations, such as quality standards. We incorporate regulations into a multi-country general equilibrium framework with firm heterogeneity and variable markups. We model regulations as a fixed cost that any firm selling to an economy must pay, consistent with stylized facts that we present. We demonstrate that in the presence of variable markups, the fixed cost generates a positive spillover on the rest of the world as it induces entry of high-quality firms, and it improves the terms of trade of the non-imposing countries. We argue that the benefits of such regulations are not fully realized under non-cooperative policy settings, leading to a call for international cooperation in setting regulations. We estimate our model and apply its gravity formulation to quantify the global welfare consequences of altering regulatory policies, the extent of the positive externalities across countries, the effects of cooperation, and the comparison with further tariff liberalization. Our analysis reveals that the entry of new high-quality firms, rather than changes in terms of trade, is the main quantitative driver of international spillovers.
    Keywords: Allocative Efficiency, International Spillover, Quality Standards, Variable Markups, Trade Policy
    JEL: F12 F13 L11
    Date: 2023–10
  10. By: Nam, Hoseung (King's College London); Portes, Jonathan (King's College London)
    Abstract: We investigate the impact of immigration on productivity in the UK, using newly published ONS data on employees of non-UK origin by region and sector. Consistent with earlier research, we find some evidence of a positive association between non-EU migration and productivity, and some weaker evidence of a negative association between EU migration and productivity, although results are sensitive to the specifications used.
    Keywords: migration, productivity, labour markets, Brexit
    JEL: F22 J48 J61 J68
    Date: 2023–09
  11. By: Taipeng Li (Hunan University); Lorenzo Trimarchi (Development Finance and Public Policies, University of Namur); Guohao Yang (University College Dublin); Rui Xie (Hunan University)
    Abstract: We analyze the impact of a rise in protectionism on environmental regulation. Using the 2018 US-China trade war as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that higher exposure to Trump tariffs leads to less stringent regulation targets in China, increasing air pollution and carbon emissions. Politically motivated changes in environmental policies rationalize our results: the central government and local party secretaries relax environmental regulations to mitigate the negative consequences of trade protection for the polluting industries. We find heterogeneous effects depending on politicians’ characteristics: younger, recently appointed, and more connected local politicians are more likely to ease environmental regulation if their prefecture is more exposed to the tariff shock. This policy reaction benefits politicians: prefectures with the most considerable easing in environmental regulation manage to curb the negative economic consequences of the trade war, while their mayors have a relatively larger probability of promotion to a higher level of government. This paper presents the first empirical evidence documenting politicians manipulating environmental regulation to curb negative economic shocks.
    Date: 2023–10
  12. By: Bruno Conte
    Abstract: How will future climate change affect rural economies like sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in terms of migration and welfare losses? How can policy enhance SSA’s capacity to adapt to this process? I answer these questions with a quantitative framework that, coupled with rich spatial data and forecasts for the future, estimates millions of climate migrants and sizeable and unequal welfare losses in SSA. Investigating migration and trade policies as mitigating tools, I find a tradeoff associated with the former: reducing SSA migration barriers to the European Union (EU) standards eliminates aggregate welfare losses at the cost of more climate migration and high regional inequality. Reducing tariffs to the EU levels attenuates this cost.
    Keywords: climate change, migration, economic geography
    JEL: O15 Q54 R12
    Date: 2023–10
  13. By: Fabio Ashtar Telarico
    Abstract: Studies built on dependency and world-system theory using network approaches have shown that international trade is structured into clusters of 'core' and 'peripheral' countries performing distinct functions. However, few have used these methods to investigate how sanctions affect the position of the countries involved in the capitalist world-economy. Yet, this topic has acquired pressing relevance due to the emergence of economic warfare as a key geopolitical weapon since the 1950s. And even more so in light of the preeminent role that sanctions have played in the US and their allies' response to the Russian-Ukrainian war. Applying several clustering techniques designed for complex and temporal networks, this paper shows that a shift in the pattern of commerce away from sanctioning countries and towards neutral or friendly ones. Additionally, there are suggestions that these shifts may lead to the creation of an alternative 'core' that interacts with the world-economy's periphery bypassing traditional 'core' countries such as EU member States and the US.
    Date: 2023–10
  14. By: Philippe Andrade; Martin Arazi; Viacheslav Sheremirov
    Abstract: We study the aggregate effects of sectoral productivity shocks in a multisectoral New Keynesian open-economy model that allows for asymmetric input-output linkages, both within and between countries, as well as for heterogeneity in sectoral Calvo-type price stickiness. Asymmetries in the international production network play a key role in the model’s ability to produce large domestic effects of foreign sectoral supply shocks and large differential effects of domestic shocks and global shocks. Larger trade openness and substitutability between domestic inputs and foreign inputs can also significantly amplify the effects of foreign and global sectoral shocks on domestic aggregates. In comparison, sectoral heterogeneity in price stickiness does not materially amplify the domestic responses to productivity shocks that originate abroad.
    Keywords: international input-output linkages; sectoral shocks; Open-Economy New Keynesian Model
    JEL: E12 E31 F41 F44
    Date: 2023–10–01
  15. By: Compagnoni, Marco; Grazzi, Marco; Pieri, Fabio; Tomasi, Chiara
    Abstract: In the debate on international waste trade, the focus on resource efficiency and recycling has gradually begun to accompany the focus on negative environmental externalities. In this context, we examine the impact of Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) on the export of waste batteries (WB). EPR is considered as a key policy for the “marketization of waste”. On the other hand, WB are a hazardous waste that also contain a high concentration of critical raw materials. As such, they are of strategic importance for the recovery of critical resources, while at the same time requiring proper environmental management. Therefore, it is crucial to understand where WB are treated and how this is affected by related policies. Our results, based on difference-in-difference models in a gravity framework, show a consistent increase in WB exports after EPR implementation compared to the trend for other wastes. This result is likely to be an indirect consequence of the ability of EPR to support growth in waste collection rates, more accurate tracking of transboundary waste flows, and specialization of national waste management systems. In particular, EPR exports appear to be directed to countries with more advanced waste management systems rather than to developing countries.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade, Public Economics
    Date: 2023–10–30
  16. By: Tessa Hall; Alan Manning; Madeleine Sumption
    Abstract: Predicting migration is notoriously difficult but unavoidable if, for example, we want projections of future population. We present a new 'bottom-up' approach to projecting net migration, whereby emigration is estimated separately for each migrant category as a function of past immigration levels and the length of stay of migrants. This approach is applied to the UK context to project net migration to 2030. Based on the assumptions that (i) roughly current immigration levels continue, where this is plausible; and (ii) migrants stay in the UK at the same rate that Migrant Journey data has suggested they have done in the past, the model suggests that net migration will fall over the coming years. The largest part of this fall is due to emigration rising: high immigration today leads to higher emigration in future and hence a mechanical decline in net migration.
    Keywords: migration, demographics, UK policy
    Date: 2023–10–16
  17. By: Andreas Freytag; Krige Siebrits
    Abstract: The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) was signed by 54 member states of the African Union and is the largest free trade area in the world. Among other things, dismantling tariffs will have effects on public revenues in member states; this will require a revenue transition from customs duties to other forms of public revenues such as income and value added taxes. This transition may be a politically difficult process. This paper analyses the process of revenue transition in South Africa after World War I and after the end of the Apartheid regime to improve understanding of the constraints to and effects of such a revenue transition. The transition in South Africa from a tax revenue structure anchored by customs revenue to one dominated by income taxes and taxes on domestic consumption was a protracted and unplanned process. The general revenue needs of the government led to the introduction of income taxes in 1914 and a broad-based consumption tax in 1979. In addition, excise taxes have been in use ever since the establishment of the Union of South Africa in 1910 and in recent times have become increasingly important for other purposes as well. Along with the shift in the role of customs duties from revenue-generating to protective instruments and fairly extensive use of non-tariff barriers, these developments meant that import taxes became markedly less important tax handles during the course of the 20th century. As a result, the revenue implications of the trade liberalisation process in the early 1990s were minor, and the implementation of AfCFTA would not be a large shock to government revenue in South Africa either.
    Keywords: free trade agreements, revenue transition, taxes, South Africa
    JEL: H20 H27
    Date: 2023
  18. By: TSURUOKA Michito
    Abstract: The European Union’s China strategy is undergoing a rapid and substantial transformation. While Japanese experts and officials have often criticized Europe of being too soft on China for many years, Europe is changing, albeit belatedly. This DP examines what the EU seeks to achieve in its relations with China, focusing particularly on the issues and the EU’s policy tools related to economic security. The most immediate policy goal is to safeguard the EU’s own economic interest. Brussels has been introducing a series of measures to strengthen investment screening and export control and to counter state aid by foreign countries and economic coercion in recent years. While those measures are global in scope, there is no doubt that the EU’s practical focus is always on China. The fact that the human rights concerns, particularly regarding the forced labor issues in Xinjiang province, are also playing an important part in Europe’s deliberations on China also needs to be highlighted.
    Date: 2023–10
  19. By: Gustavo de Souza
    Abstract: I study the effect of an innovation subsidy on the growth of firms in a developing country. Using administrative microdata for Brazil and difference-in-differences, I find that innovation subsidies drive firm growth by facilitating firm entry into high-tariff markets with domestically produced versions of foreign goods. After receiving an innovation subsidy, firms issue more patents, expand their workforce, and diversify their product line. However, these patents receive minimal citations, while also heavily citing foreign patents. Firms increase imports of foreign inputs and expand their product line towards products with high import tariff. Despite that, in the most conservative estimate, every $1 of innovation subsidy generated $10 in present value wages.
    Keywords: R&D; Industrial policy; Industrial development
    JEL: O3 O14 O25
    Date: 2023–10–05
  20. By: Shapor, Maria (Шапор, Мария) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: This section of the work is devoted to the analysis of the relationship between inequality and economic growth in countries with a high dependence on oil exports. In this section, as in the first part of the study, approaches to modeling the relationship of various types of inequality, mainly related to income inequality in countries with a high dependence on oil exports, are considered, but not from the point of view of the quality of the institutional development of the countries under study, but in the context of dependence of the formation of the revenue part of the country's budget on the export of hydrocarbon energy. Thus, the purpose of this study was to determine the place and role of oil revenues in modeling the relationship between income inequality and economic growth in oil exporting countries and to quantify their significance in reducing inequality in the country and increasing economic growth rates.
    Keywords: inequality, economic growth, resource availability, natural wealth, modeling the relationship between the level of natural wealth and the level of well-being of the country's population
    JEL: F41 F43 F47
    Date: 2023–03–18
  21. By: Joachim Wagner (Leuphana Universität Lüneburg, Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre and Kiel Centre for Globalization)
    Abstract: This paper uses firm level data from the World Bank Enterprise surveys conducted in 2019 and from the COVID-19 follow-up surveys conducted in 2020 in eight European countries to investigate the link between exporting before the pandemic and firm survival until 2020. The estimated effect of exports is positive and statistically significant ceteris paribus after controlling for various firm characteristics that are known to be related to firm survival. Furthermore, the size of this estimated effect can be considered to be large on average. Exporting helped firms to survive.
    Keywords: Exports, firm survival, COVID-19, World Bank Enterprise Surveys, Robit regression
    JEL: D22 F14 L20 L25 L29
    Date: 2023–10
  22. By: TEZUKA Saori; IGARASHI Akira
    Abstract: Technology management is becoming essential as Japan’s economic and security environment is reshaped by the escalating rivalry for technological hegemony between the U.S. and China. In this context, how do universities effectively incorporate security export control policies while creating technology and knowledge? To answer the question, we conducted a questionnaire survey of all national universities in Japan, as well as public and private universities with science, technology, and medicine departments. This study examines what variables are associated with the current university export system, using as dependent variables the five main items that have been raised as problems in academic freedom and export control: university authorities’ understanding of research with foreign companies as part of industry-academia collaboration, their understanding of research that could become dual-use technology, their decisions regarding technology under exceptions to the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Law, their requirement to disclose the source of funds for research projects to researchers or laboratories that are subject to regulations, their implementation of compliance with internal regulations when foreign faculty members or students return to their home countries. The results show that the presence of a full-time staff member within the export control department is effective in ensuring clearer decision-making relating to technology exceptions to the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act and in evaluating research that could become dual-use technology. Furthermore, having an experienced individual in the department who overseas export control policy implementation increases the likelihood of identifying research that could be categorized as dual-use, and in cases of projects with researchers or laboratories that are subject to the list restrictions, increases the chance of disclosure of funding sources for such projects. We recommend that a focus on cultivating specialized human resources be prioritized, as the efficacy of the current government system, including the program of sending advisors to relevant institutions, has proven very limited.
    Date: 2023–09
  23. By: Isachenko, Daria
    Abstract: Turkey's policy in the Black Sea region is the result of not only a complex relationship with Russia but also of a difficult relationship with the West. In particular, US policy in the Middle East has a major impact on how Ankara positions itself in the Black Sea region. An important feature of the Black Sea region has been and continues to be the shared Turkish and Russian vision of a regional order that excludes external actors. This can be seen in the way Turkey interpreted the Montreux Convention after the outbreak of war in Ukraine and in the way the Black Sea Grain Initiative came about. Under the Montreux Convention, Ankara has a decisive role in the limitation of extra-regional fleets in the Black Sea. This is partly due to Turkish control of the straits. On the other hand, there are also treaty-based tonnage restrictions for warships of non-littoral states that are allowed to stay in the Black Sea temporarily. Ankara's manoeuvres are contributing significantly to the West's uncer­tainty about Turkey's foreign policy orientation. However, Ankara is not questioning its security anchorage in NATO. As well as securing its leadership role in the Black Sea region, Ankara is also keen to assert its economic interests.
    Keywords: War in Ukraine, Turkey, Black Sea Region, Turkey's relationship with Russia, Turkey's relationship with the West, regional order, Montreux Convention, Black Sea Grain Initiative, NATO
    Date: 2023
  24. By: OECD
    Abstract: This paper provides a snapshot of the development of renewable energies in the European Union Outermost Regions (EU ORs), focusing on their potential to contribute to the green transition while creating sustainable economic development opportunities. It reviews the policy frameworks and tools in place in EU ORs with respect to renewable energies, and provides specific policy recommendations. The paper is developed within the framework of the EU-OECD project on Global Outermost Regions.
    Keywords: Alternative Energy Sources, EU Outermost Regions, Global Value Chains, Renewable Energy
    JEL: O52 O54 O55 P45 R11 R58 Q42
    Date: 2023–10–31
  25. By: OECD
    Abstract: This paper provides an overview of the ocean economy in the EU Outermost Regions (EU ORs). It discusses the opportunities and challenges that the EU ORs are facing in light of emerging global trends, laying out priority actions for making the ocean a factor of competitiveness and internationalisation. Such actions could be taken together with EU and basin-specific partners such as Small Island Developing States in the Caribbean, Atlantic and Indian Ocean. The paper is developed within the framework of the EU-OECD project on Global Outermost Regions.
    Keywords: EU Outermost Regions, Global value chains, Regional Economic Activity, Sustainable Ocean
    JEL: O52 O54 O55 Q2 Q22 Q57 R11 R58 Q25
    Date: 2023–10–31
  26. By: Dungan, Peter (University of Toronto); Fang, Tony (Memorial University of Newfoundland); Gunderson, Morley (University of Toronto); Murphy, Steve (University of Toronto)
    Abstract: We simulate the impact of an increase in immigration into the Atlantic provinces based on the FOCUS macro-econometric model at the University of Toronto. That national model was adapted to reflect the regional dimensions of the Atlantic provinces. We find robust evidence of positive outcomes for the Atlantic region so long as it is part of a broader increase in immigration for the country as a whole. The positive outcome encompasses higher GDP and GDP per capita, higher consumption, and improved government fiscal balances at both the federal and provincial levels that could in turn be used for tax reductions or the enhancement of government services. These benefits could be enhanced further by carefully targeting new immigrants for needed skills and for their likelihood of remaining in the Atlantic region.
    Keywords: immigration, macroeconomic impacts, Atlantic Canada, FOCUS Model
    JEL: J11 J15 J18 J24
    Date: 2023–10
  27. By: John Knight
    Abstract: The predictions of the adverse effects of greenhouse gas emissions on climate change are now accepted. Somewhat less attention has been given to the economic, social, and political consequences. The three interact: the former will have social and political effects, which in turn will harm economies and economic well-being. This analysis of poor countries draws on much recent evidence and various projections. Climate damage contributes to internal political instability and conflict. There is a risk that poor countries will be driven down economically, so reducing the capacity of their governments: some will become fragile states. Internal migration is likely to become a central policy issue. However, international migration will also grow. Climate damage will drag countries into both cooperation and conflict with each other. The effects on sending countries, contiguous countries, and destination countries are examined. This scenario presented is predictive but should be taken as a warning.
    Keywords: climate change , international migration , domestic and international conflicts , global warming , displacement of population
    Date: 2023
  28. By: Shiro Armstrong; Danny Quah
    Abstract: This paper casts within a unified economic framework some key challenges for the global economic order: de-globalization; the rising impracticability of global cooperation; and the increasingly confrontational nature of Great Power competition. In these, economics has been weaponised in the service of national interest. This need be no bad thing. History provides examples where greater openness and freer trade emerge from nations seeking only to advance their own self-interests. But the cases described in the paper provide mixed signals. We find that some developments do draw on a growing zero-sum perception to economic and political engagement. That zero-sum explanation alone, however, is crucially inadequate. Self-serving nations, even when believing the world zero-sum, have under certain circumstances produced outcomes that have benefited all. In other circumstances, perfectly-predicted losses have instead resulted on all sides. Such lose-lose outcomes -- epic fail equilibria -- generalize the Prisoner's Dilemma game and are strictly worse than zero-sum. In our analysis, Third Nations -- those not frontline in Great Power rivalry -- can serve an essential role in averting epic fail outcomes. The policy implication is that Third Nations need to provide platforms that will gently and unobtrusively nudge Great Powers away from epic-fail equilibria and towards inadvertent cooperation.
    Date: 2023–10
  29. By: Angenendt, Steffen; Koch, Anne; Tjaden, Jasper Dag
    Abstract: German and European migration policy operates in permanent crisis mode. Sudden increases in irregular immigration create a sense of loss of control, which is instrumentalised by populist forces. This has generated great interest in quantitative migration predictions. High expectations are placed in the AI-based tools currently under devel­op­ment for forecasting irregular migration. The potential applications of these tools are manifold. They range from managing and strengthening the EU's reception capacity and border protections to configuring humanitarian aid provision and longer-term planning of development programmes. There is a significant gap between the expectations placed in the new instruments and their practical utility. Technical limits exist, medium-term forecasts are methodologically implausible, and channels for feeding the results into political decision-making processes are lacking. The great demand for predictions is driven by the political functions of migration prediction, which include its uses in political communication, funding acquisition and legitimisation of political decisions. Investment in the quality of the underlying data will be more productive than developing a succession of new prediction tools. Funding for applications in emergency relief and development cooperation should be prioritised. Crisis early warning and risk analysis should also be strengthened and their networking improved.
    Keywords: Migration, Migrationspolitik, Wanderungsprognosen, Vorhersage, Vorausschau, Displacement Forecasting, Krisenfrüherkennung, Risikoanalyse, Künstliche Intelligenz, maschinelles Lernen, Agentenbasierte Modellierung, predicting irregular migration, forecast, quantitative migration prediction, UNHCR, IOM, Frontex Risk Analysis Network (FRAN), Common Integrated Risk Analysis Model (CIRAM), Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC), Frontex, Pact on Migration and Asylum
    Date: 2023
  30. By: OECD
    Abstract: This paper explores the innovation dynamics of the EU Outermost Regions (EU ORs) through patenting behaviour. It emphasises the potential for international collaborations with a wide range of partners, and recommends to mobilise the resources and strategies provided by the EU to strengthen research and innovation in the private sector; enhance the impact of public research centres and universities; and foster intra-regional co-operation. It also calls for stronger ties with African countries, the Latin American and Caribbean region, as well as Small Island Developing States (SIDS), to foster innovation-based collaborations, particularly around sustainable agriculture, renewable energy and the ocean economy. The paper is developed within the framework of the EU-OECD project on Global Outermost Regions.
    Keywords: EU Outermost Regions, Global Value Chains, Intellectual Property Rights, Research and Development, Technological Innovation
    JEL: O33 O34 O52 O55 R11 R58 O54
    Date: 2023–10–30
  31. By: Ozili, Peterson K
    Abstract: This paper explores the 2021-2022 global energy crisis. The 2021-2022 energy crisis was caused by many factors including the global campaign to reduce carbon emission, the shortage in fossil fuel reserves due to divestment from fossil fuels, the halt in oil production due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine and Russia conflict. The empirical results show that gasoline prices rose in Asia, Europe, Africa, the Middle East and the Americas. The rise in gasoline prices occurred during the period when COVID-era restrictions were lifted in 2021 and also during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in early 2022. The correlation results show that gasoline prices in Middle East, Europe, Asia and the Americas were significantly correlated but not in Africa. The findings have implications.
    Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, gasoline, energy crisis, Asia, Europe, Africa, Middle East
    JEL: Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49
    Date: 2023

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