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on International Trade |
| By: | Sedalishchev, Vladimir (Седалищев, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Eremin, Vladimir (Ерёмин, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Over the past century, as one of the main trends in international trade, one should note the noticeable liberalization of trade throughout the world, this trend is still widely supported today in the activities of many economic associations, ranging from the activities of the WTO and the IMF to the activities of economic associations in within the framework of regional trade agreements, for example, the EAEU, the EU and others. Along with the trend towards globalization, there is a decrease in non-tariff barriers to trade in goods and services, and other obstacles to capital flows. The issue of countries taking part in integration processes is widely discussed and debatable, as the object of study is the economies of the EAEU countries, the EU and the economies of Russia's key trading partners. The purpose of the study is to assess the consequences (macroeconomic and sectoral) for the EAEU countries from the implementation by various countries of a number of provisions of agreements governing the functioning of potential integration associations that include the EAEU, and, based on the estimates obtained, to form a profile of foreign trade policy strategies for the EAEU countries, taking into account internal and external situations for choosing the optimal integration directions of the EAEU. The results of the study presented in this paper are as follows: Calculations based on data in the form of a global matrix of social accounts for 2019 showed that under any bilateral scenario of Russia's integration with the 16 listed on the EAEU site, Russia is unlikely to be able to achieve an increase of more than half a percent of GDP. At the same time, no significant industry risks are expected for it. As the country-by-country analysis of the games showed, with the simultaneous entry of several countries into the EAEU, there are no noticeable synergy effects and Russia's gains are approximately equal to the sum of the gains from agreements with each of the partners. |
| Keywords: | global economy, trade policy, Russian Federation, foreign economic strategy, computable general equilibrium models, input-output tables, GTAP database, export restrictions, global social account matrices |
| JEL: | F02 F13 |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220229&r=int |
| By: | SEKINE Takemasa |
| Abstract: | The place for discussion regarding the relationship between trade and labor is gradually shifting from the World Trade Organization (WTO) to free trade agreements (FTAs). Different from the previous theoretical discussions under the WTO, recent discussions in FTAs entail concrete disputes. Among those disputes, Korea – Labor Commitments is a landmark case. The Panel of Experts found that some provisions in the Korea’s trade union law infringed the provision (Article 13.4 EU-Korea FTA) that requires parties to respect the principles of the International Labour Organization (ILO). On the other hand, the Panel rejected the complaint that Korea is not showing sufficient effort to ratify the core ILO Conventions. The case was prominent in that the issues discussed in the dispute had tenuous relationship with trade. The success in bringing the case into FTA dispute settlement mechanism may enhance the possibility that similar “domestic†labor issues will be addressed in FTA mechanisms. In addition, the case was also notable in the sense of excellent implementation of panel’s recommendation. Nevertheless, the EU is reinforcing the implementation power of labor clauses in new FTAs. Korea – Labor Commitments is an essential case in considering the development of labor clauses in trade agreements. |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rpdpjp:23020&r=int |
| By: | Déhou Sohou N’gani Abassi (ESGIS - Ecole Supérieure de Gestion d'Informatique et des Sciences [Lomé]) |
| Abstract: | The world's population is constantly evolving, and Togo is no exception, with its population on an upward curve. We are interested in the impact of this growth on the country's economy, and more specifically on international trade. The impact of Togo's population on international trade needs to be measured in concrete terms, so that we know how to take advantage of the opening up of trade and can make predictions and plans if necessary. This research proposes to model, over the period from 1990 to 2015, the link between the Togolese population and international trade in Togo using a series of simple linear regressions. We found that the relationship between population and imports into Togo is relatively moderate, or even weak, with a significant impact, but that the relationship between population and exports from Togo is relatively strong, without the population being able to help predict the value of exports, all other things being equal. |
| Abstract: | La population mondiale ne cesse d'évoluer et le Togo n'échappe pas à ce phénomène en voyant sa population évoluer en courbe montante. Nous nous sommes intéressés aux impacts de cette croissance sur l'économie du pays, plus précisément, sur le commerce international. Il est nécessaire de mesurer, de façon concrète, l'impact de la population togolaise sur le commerce international au Togo, afin de savoir comment profiter de l'ouverture commerciale et de pouvoir faire des prédictions, des planifications au besoin. Cette recherche propose de modéliser, sur la période allant de 1990 à 2015, le lien entre la population togolaise et le commerce international au Togo par une série de régressions linéaires simples. Nous avons pu découvrir que, la relation entre la population et les importations au Togo est relativement moyenne voire faible avec un impact significatif, mais la relation entre la population et les exportations au Togo est relativement forte sans pour autant que la population puisse aider, toutes choses égales par ailleurs, à prédire la valeur des exportations. |
| Keywords: | impact, demographics, population, world trade, import, export, démographie, commerce international, importation, exportation |
| Date: | 2023–10–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04229021&r=int |
| By: | Michele Mancini (Bank of Italy); Pierluigi Montalbano (Department of Social Sciences and Economics, Sapienza University of Rome); Silvia Nenci (Department of Economics, Roma Tre University); Davide Vurchio (University of Bari) |
| Abstract: | Recently, a strand of the international trade literature has developed measures of the positioning of countries and industries in Global Value Chains (GVCs) using the global Input-Output tables. These measures allow scholars from different research fields to conduct qualitative and quantitative analyses on GVCs, at the aggregate and sectoral level, and inform policymaking. To compute these indicators, a common approach is to consider the extent to which a country-industry pair sells its output for final use to consumers worldwide or instead sells intermediate inputs to other producing sectors in the world. Following this approach, we compute and make available to scholars a new dataset of GVC positioning indicators at the country-industry level based on the most used global Input-Output tables (WIOD, OECD, EORA, ADB). Specifically, we compute two popular measures: i) a measure of distance or upstreamness of a production sector from final demand, which was developed by Fally (2012), Antràs et al. (2012), and Antràs and Chor (2013, 2019); and ii) a measure of distance or downstreamness of a given sector from the economy’s primary factors of production (or sources of value-added), originally proposed by Fally (2012). These indicators are “ready-to-use” and can be freely downloaded from here (https://www.tradeconomics.com/position/). This work illustrates the indicators included in this new open access dataset and the methodologies applied, and provides an international comparison, by sectors and countries, of GVC positioning measures and their evolution over time. Lastly, we propose an empirical exercise to test the consistency of these measures with trade theory. |
| Keywords: | Global Value Chain, positioning indicators, upstreamness, downstreamness, international trade, country-sector analysis, data. |
| JEL: | D57 F14 O50 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:saq:wpaper:3/23&r=int |
| By: | Pakhomov, Alexander (Пахомов, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Bagdasaryan, Kniaz (Багдасарян, Княз) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Due to the changes in the geo-economic situation at the beginning of 2022, the focus of this research is shifted from the general analysis of foreign trade strategies of foreign countries to the study of trade policies of key countries against Russia (including common approaches and sanctions), as well as the response of the Russian side. This approach determines the novelty and relevance of this study. The significance of the work is determined by the research in scientific and applied aspects of the problems of forming common priorities and tools in trade policy of the leading countries of the world, which depend on the global scientific and technological development. Trade policy is a purposeful activity of the state to promote and protect the interests of national business in global markets. The results of the study indicate attempts to create and consolidate new rules of the world economy based on the concept of energy transition and technological breakthrough, which has a negative impact on the established rules of the world economy and international trade. |
| Keywords: | global economy, trade policy, foreign economic strategy, Russian Federation |
| JEL: | F02 F13 |
| Date: | 2022–11–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220225&r=int |
| By: | Joël Cariolle (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International); Petros G Sekeris (TBS - Toulouse Business School) |
| Abstract: | Corruption is an important topic for governments and economics. A widely held belief is that exposure to international trade helps reducing corruption. In this article we show through theory and evidence that the relationship between trade and corruption is more nuanced. We show that firm level corruption actually increases when exports experience booms or busts. The reason is that export booms result in stronger incentives to favor production rather than corruption in low export settings, and vice versa in high export settings. Consequently, export busts when exports are very low, and export booms when exports are high, lead both to higher corruption. We corroborate these findings with an extensive database of some 45, 000 firms from 72 developing and transition economies, surveyed over 2006-2017. We also confirm the corruption-deterrent effect of institutional quality. |
| Keywords: | Corruption Bribery Export shocks |
| Date: | 2023–06–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04217750&r=int |
| By: | Simola, Heli |
| Abstract: | We examine recent changes in the structure of Chinese manufacturing value chains using a standard input-output framework. Our results suggest that the previous increasing trend in the share of domestic value added in Chinese value chains stalled during our observation period (2018-2022). We also note a shift in the geographic structure of foreign value added embodied in Chinese value chains. These changes seem to be mainly associated with trade policy measures implemented by China and other countries. China's share has increased in the foreign value added embodied in manufacturing value chains of the US, EU and Russia. |
| Keywords: | value-added trade, global value chains, fragmentation, input-output, China |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:142023&r=int |
| By: | Kuznetsov, Dmitry (Кузнецов, Дмитрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The goal of this paper is to empirically assess the impact of exchange rate shocks on prices and quantities of Russian exports and imports. The relevance of the work is dictated by the sanctions imposed on Russia in 2022, which can complicate international payments in the dominant currencies in international trade, and by subsequent economic policy measures aimed at reducing the role of the dollar and the euro in Russian foreign trade. Modern studies consider the currency of the contract as one of the most important factors influencing the magnitude of the exchange rate pass-through effect on prices and quantities of exports and imports. The main assumption of such models – short-term price rigidity in terms of contract currency – matches the behavior of real data. These models also predict the dependence of the pass-through effect on the firm's share of the product-country market. In this paper, based on econometric analysis of detailed data from customs statistics of the Russian Federation, it is shown that the key to the dynamics of exports and imports is not bilateral exporter-importer rates, but exporter and importer rates to the dominant currencies in world trade (US dollar and euro), and prices are rigid in the contract currency. Because of the asymmetry in the response between importer currency shocks and exporter currency shocks to the contract currency, there is a statistically and economically significant effect of a uniform appreciation of the dominant currency. This means that Russia's foreign trade prices and quantities respond to the dynamics of the contract currency even if neither the exporter nor the importer is a country issuing the contract currency. This response persists in the long run, and therefore cannot be explained solely by short-term price rigidity. The pass-through effect depends on the value of exports and imports, which is consistent with the predictions of the theory. The main conclusion of the paper is that diversification of the currency structure of foreign trade contract payments will contribute to the sustainability of Russian foreign trade, but the question of the costs of such a transition remains beyond the scope of this study. |
| Keywords: | exports, imports, exchange rate, dominant currencies, contract currency, microdata |
| JEL: | L23 F14 |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220214&r=int |
| By: | Viktor Stojkoski; Philipp Koch; Eva Coll; Cesar A. Hidalgo |
| Abstract: | Despite global efforts to harmonize international trade statistics, our understanding about trade in digital products and its implications remains elusive. Here, we study five key aspects of trade in digital products by introducing a novel dataset on the exports and imports of digital products. First, we show that compared to trade in physical goods, the origin of digital products exports is more spatially concentrated. Second, we show that between 2016 and 2021 trade in digital products grew faster than physical trade, at an annualized growth rate of 20% compared to 6% for physical trade. Third, we show that trade in digital products is large enough to partly offset some important trade balance estimates, like the physical trade deficit of the United States. Fourth, we show that countries that have decoupled economic growth from greenhouse gas emissions have larger and faster growing exports in digital product sectors. Finally, we add digital products to measures of economic complexity, showing that digital products tend to rank high in terms of sophistication contributing positively to the complexity of digital exporters. These findings provide a novel lens to understand the impact of the digital sector in the evolving geography of global trade. |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2310.02253&r=int |
| By: | El-Sahli, Zouheir; Maczulskij, Terhi; Nilsson Hakkala, Katariina |
| Abstract: | Abstract This paper analyzes how firms with different financial strength levels respond to demand shocks in their export markets. We utilize unique administrative datasets of Swedish and Finnish firms matched with national customs data from 1999 to 2014, which allows us to analyze the effects of several macroeconomic shocks affecting the export product demand and performance of exporting firms. We find that financially stronger export firms are better positioned during both positive and negative demand shocks—suffering less from the negative shocks, benefiting more from the positive shocks. While our results suggest that Swedish and Finnish firms tend to respond similarly to different export demand shocks, there are some salient differences in their survival strategies. While the financially stronger Swedish firms expanded their product lines and market areas, the Finnish firms did not make such adjustments during the 2007–2014 period of negative export demand shocks. By analyzing the firm-level survival strategies on export markets, we provide new insights into the divergent export growth trends of the two countries. |
| Keywords: | Export competition, Financial strength, Firm-level, Trade flows |
| JEL: | F14 F61 L11 L25 D22 |
| Date: | 2023–10–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:wpaper:108&r=int |
| By: | Bagdasaryan, Kniaz (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Baeva, Marina (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zaytsev, Yury (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Knobel, Alexander (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Loschenkova, Anna (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The statistics on foreign direct investment (FDI) for 2017 published in early April by the Central Bank of Russia shows a change in the dynamics of an increase in FDI inflows to the Russian Federation that was outlined in 2016 and in the first three quarters of 2017. The slowdown in capital inflows in 4Q 2017 reflected the deteriorating sentiment of foreign investors associated with negative expectations of new US sanctions, as well as a drop in demand for Russian government bonds. Positive investor sentiment was reflected by the positive dynamics of FDI flows in the first three quarters of 2017, when the level of incoming FDI amounted to USD 24.8 billion, which is more than 2 times compared to the same period in 2016. The increase in inflows over this period is due to transactions such as the sale of a 10% stake in the Russian petrochemical holding Sibur to the Chinese Silk Road Fund, the launch of the construction of a Mercedes-Benz automobile plant by the German company Daimler in the Esipovo industrial park, which became the first largest project after the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions by the Western company in Russia. Existing assessments of the impact of sanctions on key macroeconomic indicators provide a rough understanding of their significance for foreign investors. Under the new conditions, foreign investors developed their own approaches to respond to the sanctions regime, depending on their sectoral specialization and the degree of orientation towards the Russian and/or foreign markets. Nevertheless, according to the results of 2017, the volume of foreign direct investment (FDI) attracted to Russia from the EU countries exceeded USD 14 billion (which is more than 6 times the level of 2016). Consequently, a high potential for investment cooperation remains between Russia and the EU countries, despite the sanctions regime. Relevance of the study: portfolio and foreign direct investment are an important source of capital that complements domestic private investment and is often associated with creating new jobs, stimulating technological exchange and encouraging overall economic growth in host countries. Important factors in FDI inflows are the level of the exchange rate and its volatility. The need for an empirical analysis of the impact of the exchange rate on FDI inflows to Russia is caused by the currency crisis of 2014-2015, when the Russian ruble devalued due to the fall in world oil prices, as well as a number of foreign policy events. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of the level of the exchange rate and its trend on the inflow of direct and portfolio foreign investment in the Russian Federation. In accordance with the goal, the following tasks will be solved: – Review of the theoretical and empirical literature on the role of the exchange rate in the inflow of foreign investment; – Analysis of foreign direct investment flows in Russia and in the world; – Building models that take into account the impact of the exchange rate of the national currency of Russia on the inflow of foreign direct investment in the sectors of the Russian economy; – Evaluation of econometric models to study the influence of the exchange rate on the inflow of foreign direct investment to the countries of the world in order to test the hypotheses put forward in the work; – Interpretation of the results and development of recommendations for the Russian foreign economic policy, taking into account the results of the study. The initial data of the work were statistical databases, both international and Russian, in particular, open statistical data provided by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the Federal State Statistics Service, the Eurasian Economic Commission, regulatory and program documents regulating the activities of the regions of the Russian Federation with a special (special legal) regime for the implementation of entrepreneurial and other activities, as well as cases of the largest and most successful investment projects implemented on the territory of individual constituent entities of the Russian Federation. |
| Keywords: | Exchange Rate, Foreign Investment, Foreign Direct Investment, Investment Climate, Import Substitution, Economic Sanctions, Globalization, Russian Federation |
| JEL: | F31 |
| Date: | 2023–02–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220265&r=int |
| By: | Maczulskij, Terhi; Nilsson Hakkala, Katariina |
| Abstract: | Abstract After the financial crisis, Finland’s exports have lagged behind Sweden’s exports. This study analyzes how firms with different financial strength respond to demand shocks in their export markets. We utilize unique administrative datasets of Swedish and Finnish firms matched with national customs data over a period of 15 years, which allows us to analyze the effects of several macroeconomic shocks affecting export product demand and performance of exporting firms. We find that financially stronger export firms are better positioned during both positive and negative demand shocks, suffering less from the negative shocks, benefiting more from the positive shocks. While our results suggest that Swedish and Finnish firms tend to respond similarly to different export demand shocks, there are some salient differences in their survival strategies. While the financially stronger Swedish firms expanded their product lines and market areas, the Finnish firms did not make such adjustments during the 2007–2014 period of negative export demand shocks. The differences in the survival strategies could provide one explanation why the growth of Finnish exports has diverged from the Swedish exports since the financial crisis. |
| Keywords: | Export competition, Financial strength, Firm-level, Trade flows |
| JEL: | F14 F61 L11 L25 D22 |
| Date: | 2023–10–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:125&r=int |
| By: | Knobel, Alexander (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zaytsev, Yury (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kuznetsov, Dmitry (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | This working paper is devoted to identifying patterns of spatial and sectoral distribution of foreign direct investment enterprises in the Russian Federation and to developing recommendations for optimizing the strategy of attracting foreign direct investment to the Russian Federation. In the framework of the study, the following methods were applied: the method of macroeconomic modeling, evaluation of econometric models, as well as logical, systemic, comparative, economic and statistical analysis. Statistical data at the enterprise level were used from the «RUSLANA» and «SPARK-INTERFAX» databases. The results of the study allows to point out some characteristic features of the spatial distribution of foreign enterprises, which must be taken into account when forming a picture of preferences of foreign investors and the policy of attracting foreign investors to Russian regions. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Direct Investments, Russian and Foreign Enterprises, Micro-analysis |
| Date: | 2023–07–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220266&r=int |
| By: | Jalile, Ileana Raquel; Moncarz, Pedro E. |
| Abstract: | Two databases are constructed on GHG emissions associated with Argentina's international trade between 2000 and 2017, emissions derived from the production of exported goods and those associated with the international transport of exports and imports. Food, beverages, and tobacco, and agriculture, hunting, and related activities, followed by manufactures of metal and chemical products, are the main sectors that explain GHG emissions linked to exports. Petroleum, gas, and mining became less significant. The same sectors explain most of the CO2 emissions linked to the international transportation of exports. For emissions linked to the transportation of imports used in the production of exports, the main contributing sectors are those relating to industrial manufacturing. A decomposition exercise reveals that for emissions linked to the production of exports, the scale effect contributed more significantly in 2000-2011 than in 2012-2017, although in both cases its effect was positive. The composition effect was much less significant. For the emissions associated with international transportation, the main drivers were the scale, sector, and partner effects. Changes in the sector structure of exports appear to have caused more emissions between 2000 to 2011, but the opposite was observed between 2011 and 2017. In the case of emissions from international transportation, changes in the sector structure increased pollution in the case of the transportation of exports, while the opposite was the case for the transportation of imports. |
| Keywords: | exports |
| JEL: | F10 F18 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:12153&r=int |
| By: | Taiyo Yoshimi (Faculty of Economics, Chuo University, Japan / Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan); Uraku Yoshimoto (Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan); Kiyotaka Sato (Faculty of International Social Sciences, Yokohama National University, Japan / Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan); Takatoshi Ito (School of International Relations and Public Policy, Columbia University, The United States / National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Japan); Junko Shimizu (Faculty of Economics, Gakushuin University, Japan / Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan); Yushi Yoshida (Faculty of Economics, Shiga University, Japan / Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan) |
| Abstract: | This study empirically investigates the extent to which the choice of invoice currency differs between intra-firm and arm fs length exports. We also examine whether other firm- and product-level factors affect the choice of invoice currency. This study is the first to be granted access to highly disaggregated transaction-level data on Japanese automobile exports to France. By conducting panel logit estimation, we demonstrate that importers f currency tends to be chosen in intra-firm export invoicing, which has not been rigorously shown in previous literature. Our empirical findings remain robust when introducing different types of intra-firm export variables and other conventional explanatory variables such as firm- and product market share, exchange rate volatility, a dummy for intermediate goods exports, euro-invoiced imports, labor productivity, and research and development intensity. Amid growing intra-firm trade and expanding global value chains, Japanese parent firms tend to invoice using the importer fs currency, assuming the foreign exchange risk that arises from intra-firm trade; thus, exchange rate risk management is a significant consideration for Japanese parent firms. |
| Keywords: | Invoice currency; Intra-firm trade; Japan Customs data; Market share; Export competitiveness |
| JEL: | F14 F31 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mof:wpaper:ron353&r=int |
| By: | Lee, Jukwan (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | The international community is striving to establish trade rules for the environmental market in order to secure a free and fair trade order and contribute to achieving carbon neutrality and sustainability. This paper examines the related discussions, reviews the current status and market openness of environmental goods and services, and analyzes the effects of environmental market regulation and liberalization on the global and Korean economies. |
| Keywords: | Environmental goods; Environmental services; Liberalization; Trade and Envionment |
| Date: | 2023–10–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:2023_035&r=int |
| By: | Lewandowski, Piotr (Institute for Structural Research (IBS)); Madoń, Karol (Institute for Structural Research (IBS)); Winkler, Deborah (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the relationship between global value chain (GVC) participation, worker-level routine task intensity, and wage inequality within countries. Using unique survey data from 38 countries, we find that higher GVC participation is associated with more routine-intensive work, especially among workers in offshorable occupations. This relationship is particularly strong in industry and in countries at lower development levels. As higher routine task intensity links with to wages, this indirectly widens within-country wage inequality. However, GVC participation directly contributes to reduced wage inequality, except in the richest countries. Overall, GVC participation is negatively associated with wage inequality in most low- and middle-income countries that receive offshored jobs, and positively in high-income countries that offshore jobs. |
| Keywords: | routine task intensity, global value chains, globalisation, cross-country division of work, wage inequality |
| JEL: | J21 J24 J31 F66 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16510&r=int |
| By: | David R. DeRemer (Nazarbayev University, Graduate School of Business); Yelzhas Kadyr (KU Leuven, Faculteit Economie en Bedrijfswetenschappen, Vlaams Instituut voor Economie en Samenleving (VIVES)); Aigerim Yergabulova (Nazarbayev University, Graduate School of Business) |
| Abstract: | Kazakhstan was the top destination country for Russian immigrants in 2022, a year when Russian emigration sharply increased due to new international sanctions and war mobilization. The circumstances offer a rare opportunity to explore how a large sudden skill-abundant immigration within an economic union affects firm employment dynamics for a middle-income receiving country. Kazakhstan and Russia share the world's longest continuous land border, so immigration effects are regionally dispersed rather than concentrated solely in cities, and Kazakhstan offers business registers data to explore firm-level employment dynamics. Absent fine regional data on immigration flows, our empirical approach uses a pre-war share of the Russian population in 215 districts of Kazakhstan as a reduced-form instrument for the treatment of Russian immigration. We find no pre-war trends in firm employment growth related to the Russian district population shares. Using difference-in-differences estimation, we find large effects of 2022 Russian immigration on the employment growth for Kazakhstan's incumbent firms in more affected regions. The employment growth is larger for small firms, young foreign-owned firms, older domestic firms, and ICT firms, and results are robust to the exclusion or inclusion of Kazakhstan's two major cities of Almaty and Astana. We estimate that Kazakhstan's regions, excluding the two major cities, would have experienced a private sector employment fall of 86, 500 in 2022 rather than the actual increase of 21, 500 if Russian immigration flows had not occurred. |
| Keywords: | gender pay inequality, occupations, foreign ownership, Kazakhstan |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asx:nugsbw:2023-09&r=int |
| By: | Edo, Anthony (CEPII, Paris); Özgüzel, Cem (OECD) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first evidence on the regional impact of immigration on native employment in a cross-country framework. By exploiting the richness of the European Labour Force Surveys and past censuses, we show that the rise in the share of immigrants across European regions over the 2010-2019 period had a modest impact on the employment-to-population rate of natives. However, the effects are highly uneven across regions and workers, and over time. First, the short-run estimates show adverse employment effects in response to immigration, while these effects disappear in the longer run. Second, low-educated native workers experience employment losses due to immigration, whereas high-educated ones are more likely to experience employment gains. Third, the presence of institutions that provide employment protection and high coverage of collective wage agreements exert a protective effect on native employment. Finally, economically dynamic regions can better absorb immigrant workers, resulting in little or no effect on the native workforce. |
| Keywords: | immigration, employment, labour supply, employment dynamics |
| JEL: | F22 J21 J61 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16469&r=int |
| By: | Ashok Gulati (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Raya Das (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Sanchit Gupta; Manish Kumar Prasad |
| Abstract: | India faces a challenging macroeconomic scenario as retail inflation, measured by the year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI), persists above the Reserve Bank of India's upper tolerance limit, reaching 6.83 percent in August 2023. This surge, primarily driven by soaring food prices. The Government of India (GOI) has implemented a series of measures, including export ban on non-basmati white rice, stocking limits on wheat, and export duties on onion, parboiled rice often seen as abrupt and reactionary and impact farmers' income. Our study estimates that these market restrictive policy measures have taken a toll on our farmers, slashing their earnings by a staggering Rs.39, 829 crores. This policy brief advocates for a more rational and dependable trade policy that balances the interests of producers and consumers while containing food inflation. |
| Keywords: | Food Inflation, retail inflation, Basmati, trade policy, food prices, icrier |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:ppaper:15&r=int |
| By: | Joseph S. Shapiro |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes that strong financial, judicial, and labor market institutions provide comparative advantage in clean industries, and thereby improve a country's environmental quality. Five complementary tests support this hypothesis. First, industries that depend on institutions are disproportionately clean. Second, strong institutions increase relative exports in clean industries, even conditional on environmental regulation and factor endowments. Third, an industry's complexity helps explain the link between institutions and clean goods. Fourth, a quantitative general equilibrium model indicates that strengthening a country's institutions decreases its pollution through relocating dirty industries abroad, though increases pollution in other countries. Fifth, cross-country differences in the composition of output between clean and dirty industries explain more of the global distribution of emissions than differences in the techniques used for production do. The comparative advantage that strong institutions provide in clean industries gives one under-explored reason why developing countries have relatively high pollution levels. |
| JEL: | F18 F55 F6 F64 H23 O4 O44 P48 Q50 Q56 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31768&r=int |
| By: | Firanchuk, Alexander (Фиранчук, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the impact of the ruble exchange rate on Russian imports from the EU27. The theoretical model considers exporters with elastic output and incompletely free redistribution of outputs between destination markets. The model predicts that an appreciation (depreciation) of the ruble exchange rate leads to an increase (decrease) in volumes, and the adjustment degree decreases as a destination market’s share in the firm's total exports increases. The degree of prices (in euros) adjustment to exchange rate changes, on the contrary, increases as the share of a destination market increases. The empirical results based on Eurostat data for 2005-21 are consistent with these hypotheses. The extensive component of import reaction is considered separately. I show the ruble depreciation reduces the probability of new companies entering the market and increases the probability of existing suppliers exit the market. At the same time, the probability of a firm's exit increases stronger when the share of the Russian market in the firm's total output decreases. |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220209&r=int |
| By: | Dziadula, Eva; Zavodny, Madeline |
| Abstract: | This study explores the role of individual and local marriage market characteristics in whether recently wed U.S. residents "imported" a spouse instead of marrying someone already present in the country. Our findings indicate that U.S. natives and immigrants whose spouse is a "marriage migrant" (someone who arrived in the U.S. the same year as the marriage occurred) are positively selected along some dimensions but negatively along others. The results also suggest that U.S. immigration policy plays an important role in whether immigrants bring in a spouse. We further investigate the trade-offs in spouse characteristics associated with having a marriage-migrant spouse. There appear to be several advantages to marrying a migrant, including that marriage-migrant spouses tend to be relatively younger and less likely to have been previously married. Immigrants' gains to marrying a migrant are bigger among naturalized citizens, showcasing the desirability of someone who can easily sponsor a spouse for permanent residence. |
| Keywords: | immigration, marriage markets, assortative matching |
| JEL: | J12 J15 K37 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1334&r=int |
| By: | Hennicke, Moritz; Blanga-Gubbay, Michael |
| Abstract: | We provide systematic evidence that lobbying by firms on trade agreements matters for their stock prices. We leverage a unique shock to U.S. trade policy -- the unexpected victory of Donald Trump in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, and the de-facto U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) -- creating exogenous variation in investors' expectations of potential gains from lobbying. We find that share prices of companies that lobbied in favor of TPP underperformed by 0.41pp lower returns over the course of 10 days following the election. We construct an additional measure of lobbying on the agreement from online news articles, that strengthens our assumption that market participants are informed and build expectations over potential gains from TPP. By comparing the original TPP agreement with its newer version (CPTPP) without U.S. participation, we provide suggestive evidence that lobbying on specific provisions of high importance to the U.S. led to lower returns. |
| Date: | 2023–10–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:zcwsn&r=int |
| By: | Shapor, Maria (Шапор, Мария) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The final part of the presented study, which consisted of four parts, is devoted to assessing the consequences of the economic inequality of countries, including those dependent on the export of hydrocarbon energy. Note that the estimates presented in this paper also cover the period of various types of sanctions, which also have certain consequences for income inequality. Based on the presented thesis, the purpose of this part of the study is to assess the consequences of economic inequality in the group of countries under study based on the use of econometric models, as well as to conduct a dynamic assessment of indicators of income inequality between countries. |
| Keywords: | consequences of countries' economic inequality, influence of macroeconomic variables on inequality, quantification of the consequences of income inequality, influence of external shocks on income inequality |
| JEL: | E01 E21 E22 E27 |
| Date: | 2023–03–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220254&r=int |
| By: | Elisa De Carvalho (Department of Social Sciences and Economics, Sapienza University of Rome) |
| Abstract: | In recent years, states have exported wars and "produced" millions of refugees and internally displaced persons. We have Ukraine with over 8 million, Syria with about 6 million, Venezuela (about 5 million), South Sudan (between 2 and 3 million), and so on. Scholarship has evidenced that different groups of migrants receive different types of support and treatment. "Immigrants" (migrants, displaced persons, refugees, and asylum seekers) are often seen as low-skilled workers from developing countries and are ethnically marked (Leinonen, 2012). On the other hand, expatriates are stereotyped as white, high-skilled workers from rich countries (Cranston, 2017). Another example is digital nomads, modern "premium migrants." These categories illustrate how global inequalities and power relations are embedded in the migration structure (Sandoz & Santi, 2019), reproducing exclusion and classification. Economic migrants, expatriates, and digital nomads are groups directly affected by the power relations inherent to the dynamics of the global economy and international politics. Through a literature review and theoretical discussion and using the example of economic migrants, expatriates, and digital nomads, this paper aims to draw attention to how colonial and historical processes have led to the construction and perception of contemporary mobilities. These epistemological constructions play a crucial role in how host societies and policymakers deal with migration, what tools they choose, how policies are implemented, and how problems are identified, understood, and addressed (as a problem or not). |
| Keywords: | colonialism; international law; expatriate; migrant; digital nomads. |
| JEL: | F54 K37 F22 J60 J15 K37 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:saq:wpaper:7/23&r=int |
| By: | Green, David A. (University of British Columbia, Vancouver); Liu, Huju (Statistics Canada); Ostrovsky, Yuri (Statistics Canada); Picot, Garnett (Institute for Research on Public Policy, and Research and Evaluation Branch, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada) |
| Abstract: | Firm ownership is a dening feature of immigrant adaptation: 41% of immigrants own a firm at some point in their first 10 years post-arrival. We use Canadian data linking immigrant arrival records with individual and firm tax data to examine the process of entering firm ownership for immigrants. Higher immigrant firm ownership rates are mainly due to nonincorporated firm ownership, which looks like a last resort. Human capital plays no role in the opening of preferable, incorporated firms. Immigrants are not more entrepreneurial in terms of opening incorporated firms with employees, and standard policy levers appear to have limited effects. |
| Keywords: | immigration, entrepreneurs, human capital |
| JEL: | J61 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16515&r=int |
| By: | Fung, Esabella |
| Abstract: | The online labor market, comprised of companies such as Upwork, Amazon Mechanical Turk, and their freelancer workforce, has expanded worldwide over the past 15 years and has changed the labor market landscape. Although qualitative studies have been done to identify factors related to the global supply to the online labor market, few data modeling studies have been conducted to quantify the importance of these factors in this area. This study applied tree-based supervised learning techniques, decision tree regression, random forest, and gradient boosting, to systematically evaluate the online labor supply with 70 features related to climate, population, economics, education, health, language, and technology adoption. To provide machine learning explainability, SHAP, based on the Shapley values, was introduced to identify features with high marginal contributions. The top 5 contributing features indicate the tight integration of technology adoption, language, and human migration patterns with the online labor market supply. |
| Keywords: | business, boosting, commerce and trade, digital divide, economics, ensemble learning, globalization, machine learning, random forest, social factors, statistical learning, sharing economy |
| JEL: | C60 F14 F16 J11 J22 M2 |
| Date: | 2023–10–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118844&r=int |
| By: | José Victor C. Giarola (Maastricht University); Olivier Marie (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Frank Cörvers (Maastricht University); Hans Schmeets (Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of a policy change in the Netherlands that reduced preferential tax treatment duration for high-skilled migrants arriving from specific countries in certain years. Utilizing comprehensive tax and population data, we document substantial tax-induced emigration responses, primarily driven by the top 1% of earners. Highly mobile individuals within the top 5% also emigrate sooner, particularly to competing countries offering tax-breaks to attract skilled workers. Crucially, we uncover no change in mobility behavior among lower-earning workers. The increased tax receipts from lower-income individuals who remain offset the loss from fleeing high earners, making the policy fiscally cost-neutral. |
| Keywords: | Taxation, immigration, labor income, Netherlands. |
| JEL: | F22 H31 J61 |
| Date: | 2023–10–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20230053&r=int |
| By: | Potashnikov, Vladimir (Поташников, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Levakov, Pavel (Леваков, Павел) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Currently many sectors of the Russian economy, including the fuel and energy sector, are undergoing structural changes. This is due both to the energy transformation (a significant change in the structure of the energy balance) and the recent events of 2022. The article analyzes how these changes will affect the Russian energy sector. Firstly, the risks of reducing natural gas exports to the EU countries are assessed. Gas supplies to the EU are a significant part of Russia's export earnings, and the supplies themselves are difficult to redirect to other directions. Secondly, it is analyzed how recent changes will affect the development of the energy sector using the example of two scenarios for the development of the energy industry before and after 2022. Finally, it is assessed how the changes that have taken place will affect the effectiveness of an active climate policy in Russia. The possibility of a reduction in domestic demand for gas in the EU or an increase in production is unlikely. However, an increase in LNG (liquefied natural gas) imports is possible, which may allow the EU to abandon natural gas imports from Russia in the coming years. EU nominal regasification capacity allows for a potential increase in EU LNG imports by 110 billion cubic meters per year. This can be done both by redirecting supplies from other countries to the EU, and by increasing production and liquefaction of LNG. As a result of an increased sanctions pressure, with a high degree of probability, without an active climate policy, the level of greenhouse gas emissions will increase significantly. In addition to climate effects and associated negative environmental impact, this also negatively affects the prospects for economic development. Thus, greater consumption of fossil fuels makes the economy more dependent on their prices and reduces the potential for an increase in the volume of export. An analysis of decarbonization scenarios has shown that because of the recent events, an active climate policy will cost more, with more modest results. |
| Keywords: | natural gas, climate policy, international trade, energy, decarbonization, RUTIMES, LNG, Representative Energy System |
| JEL: | F1 O13 Q4 |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220267&r=int |
| By: | Takahiro Hattori (Project Assistant Professor, University of Tokyo and Visiting Scholar, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan); Ayako Tomita (Former Senior Economist, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan); Kohei Asao (Visiting Scholar, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan) |
| Abstract: | Recently, income balance has been gaining importance in current accounts among many countries. We assess the effect of the real effective exchange rate (REER) on income balance using Japan-specific data and multi-country data. Our results show that the REER does not affect income balance, both on gross and net basis. We also show that accumulation of net foreign assets, driven by the glocalization h of Japanese manufacturing firms, has fostered the income balance surplus in Japan. |
| Keywords: | Current account; Income account; International investment position; Exchange rates; Japan |
| JEL: | F1 F32 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mof:wpaper:ron351&r=int |
| By: | Postigo, Antonio |
| Abstract: | Thailand is among the ASEAN countries that have seen the most rapid growth in digital infrastructure and e-commerce since the COVID-19 pandemic. In a 2022 study conducted by the Asian Development Bank, Thailand was among just eight countries in the Asia-Pacific region that have implemented comprehensive legislation governing digital trade. In the absence of a multilateral agreement, Thailand, like many other countries, is leveraging its participation in FTAs to shape global rules for digital trade; but this approach requires significant administrative resources and can lead to regulatory fragmentation and increased business costs. Alternatively, the standalone Digital Economy Partnership Agreement (DEPA) is emerging as a key consensus-building platform towards a multilateral digital economy regime that Thailand may consider joining. |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2023–07–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120302&r=int |
| By: | Fuchs, Andreas; Gröger, André; Heidland, Tobias; Wellner, Lukas |
| Abstract: | The widespread use of foreign aid to address the "root causes" of irregular migration lacks a robust empirical foundation. In a new study (Fuchs, A., A. Groeger, T. Heidland, and L. Wellner (2023). The Effect of Foreign Aid on Migration: Global Micro-Evidence from World Bank Projects. Kiel Working Paper 2257) that we summarize here for a wider audience, we provide the first comprehensive causal analysis that examines micro-level evidence across all developing countries that received assistance from the World Bank between 2008 and 2019. Our analysis is the first to disentangle the impacts of foreign aid on various aspects of migration: individuals' aspirations, capabilities, and actual migration patterns. In alignment with the notion of utilizing aid to mitigate the root causes of irregular migration, our study reveals that the announcements and disbursements of new aid projects significantly reduce people's migration aspirations. This effect is temporary in nature and is notably absent in fragile countries. Over the longer term, the critical factor is whether aid ultimately enhances living conditions. Our findings provide some evidence supporting this, as improvements in living conditions bolster individuals' capabilities. This can lead to increased migration, yet the notable difference is that these individuals tend to follow regular channels for migration. These findings hold substantial significance for policymakers and those involved in foreign aid allocation that we discuss towards the end of this policy brief. |
| Keywords: | Migration, Foreign Aid, Root causes, Irregular migration, Refugees, Asylum, Development, Migration, Entwicklungshilfe, Fluchtursachen, Irreguläre Migration, Flüchtlinge, Asyl, Entwicklung |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:169&r=int |
| By: | Larionova, Marina (Ларионова, Марина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The working paper studies the approaches of the digital economy leaders (the US, the EU and China) to data governance and approaches they promote in international institutions. Data can generate not only profits for tech giants, but also social value. However, the market forces by themselves will not create data-based public goods. Government actions are needed at the county level and inter-state and multilateral institutions cooperation at the international level. The study is highly relevant, since to date despite numerous initiatives to establish coordination mechanisms and data regulation, cooperation on data governance is highly fragmented and gridlocked due to contradictions and tough competition between key players. One of the key disagreements is related to the regulation of cross-border data flows. The working paper aims to explore contradictions between the regulatory practices of the key actors in digital economy, the US, EU and China in the first place, and approaches they promote in international institutions (the WTO, G20, G7, OECD). In particular, the author looks into the G20 agenda on data governance and the Initiative on free data flow with trust, its challenges, and risks of cooperation stagnation. The working paper presents possible scenarios of future cooperation on data governance, their risks and perspectives, including the establishment of the Digital Economy and Data Governance Board by the G20, G7 initiative on shaping global digital order, deepening of cooperation on data governance within the G7 and the OECD, and the UNCTAD proposal on building a multilevel distributed polycentric data-governance model with the UN central role. The author concludes with a proposal on BRICS cooperation aimed at shaping inclusive multilateral data governance. |
| Keywords: | digital economy, data governance, G20, localization, free data flows |
| JEL: | F52 F53 O38 |
| Date: | 2022–10–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220224&r=int |
| By: | Walid Agrar (ENCGO - Ecole Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion); Mimoun Derraz (Université Mohammed Premier [Oujda]) |
| Abstract: | From the beginning of the 1980s, Morocco, like other emerging countries, organized a set of measures and reforms working in favor of the attractiveness of FDI.FDI represents the "bridge" for African countries to integrate into and be part of the international financial and commercial sphere.Morocco is aware of the role of FDI in economic growth, it has embarked on a project of structural, institutional and regulatory reforms and changes in order to ensure their attractiveness.The presence of FDI in an economy symbolizes an open and efficient internationalized economic system and acts as an engine of economic growth.Through this study, we will demonstrate the effects of FDI on the economic and social growth of Morocco, via an analysis of macroeconomic indicators, to conclude with recommendations drawn on the basis of the practices of pioneering countries in the attraction of FDI. FDI remains a determining factor and a had a degree of influence on the economic growth of Morocco, which is positioned among others such as the promotion of local investment, the development of human capital, etc. |
| Abstract: | Dès le début des années quatre-vingt le Maroc à l'image d'autres pays émergents a organisé un ensemble de mesures et réformes jouant en faveur de l'attractivité des IDE.Les IDE représentent le « pont » pour les pays africains pour s'intégrer dans la sphère financière et commerciale internationale et d'en faire partie.Le Maroc est conscient du rôle des IDE dans la croissance économique, il s'est engagé dans un chantier de réformes et mutations structurelles, institutionnelles et réglementaires afin d'assurer leur attractivité.La présence des IDE dans une économie symbolise un système économique internationalisé ouvert et efficace et fait office d'un moteur de croissance économique.A travers cette étude, nous allons démontrer les effets des IDE sur la croissance économique et sociale du Maroc, par le biais d'une analyse des indicateurs macroéconomiques, pour conclure avec des recommandations tirées sur la base des pratiques des pays pionniers dans l'attraction des IDE. Les IDE restent un facteur déterminant et d'un degré d'influence sur la croissance économique du Maroc, qui se positionne parmi d'autres tels que la promotion de l'investissement local, le développement du capital humain, etc. |
| Keywords: | FDI, economic growth, attractiveness, Morocco, IDE, croissance économique, attractivité, Maroc |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04189382&r=int |
| By: | Bhaumik, Sumon; Estrin, Saul; Narula, Rajneesh |
| Abstract: | The international business (IB) literature has emphasised the heterogeneity of firm strategies in shaping MNE–state bargaining, but largely ignored the heterogeneity of states. In contrast, the international political economy (IPE) literature provides a more nuanced consideration of state strategies and their economic and political priorities. We seek to address this oversight by making two related contributions. In the context of MNE–state bargaining, we first discuss how differences in political systems and the political and economic objectives of states may affect their negotiating stance with MNEs. We consider the impact of changes in the balance of state objectives by considering how much importance governments assign to improving the welfare of its broader population, relative to how important they are concerned with the “private benefits” that accrue to the political elites. This enables us to add micro-foundations to the characterisation of the state. Second, we apply a Nash bargaining framework to MNE–state negotiations that vividly captures the relative bargaining powers of the MNE and the state, including how “outside options” available to these two actors can influence the shape of actual bargains. We discuss the implications of these two contributions for future research. |
| Keywords: | international political economy; MNE-state bargaining; private benefits; democracy; autocracy; outside options |
| JEL: | L81 |
| Date: | 2023–10–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120160&r=int |
| By: | Roshen Fernando; Caterina Lepore |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the global economic consequences of physical climate risks under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 1-2.6 and SSP 2-4.5) using firm-level evidence. Firstly, we estimate the historical sectoral productivity changes from chronic climate risks (gradual changes in temperature and precipitation) and extreme climate risks (representative of heatwaves, coldwaves, droughts, and floods). Secondly, we produce forward-looking sectoral productivity changes for a global multisectoral sample of firms. For floods, these estimates account for the productivity changes from the damage to firms’ physical capital. Thirdly, we assess the macroeconomic impact of these shocks within the global, multisectoral, intertemporal general equilibrium model: G-Cubed. The results indicate that, in the absence of additional adaptation relative to that already achieved by 2020, all the economies would experience substantial losses under the two climate scenarios, and the losses would increase with global warming. The results can be useful for policymakers and practitioners interested in conducting climate risk analysis. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Climate risks, Extreme events, Macroeconomic modelling |
| JEL: | C51 C53 C54 C55 C68 F41 Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2023-50&r=int |
| By: | Jan David Bakker; Nikhil Datta; Richard Davies; Josh De Lyon |
| Abstract: | Brexit continues to affect the UK economy. The results in this report are updates to the original study of Bakker et al. (2022), showing that higher non-tariff barriers due to Brexit are affecting food price inflation and costing households in the UK. While the original paper used data up to January 2022, this report updates the dataset through to March 2023. The methodology is otherwise identical so for more details please consult the original paper. |
| Keywords: | Brexit, UK Economy |
| Date: | 2023–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepbxt:18&r=int |