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on International Trade |
| By: | Alviarez, Vanessa |
| Abstract: | Global value chains (GVCs) provide countries with opportunities to diversify trade, and boost productivity and growth by specializing in one stage of the production process. However, for the most part, Latin America and the Caribbean participation in GVCs remains low (18 percent) compared to Asia (28 percent) and Europe (34 percent). The COVID-19 pandemic, plus concerns regarding protectionism and the more frequent occurrence of natural disasters, have provided incentives for countries and companies to reassess their positions in global value chains. This crisis has taken a huge toll on trade, but it could also be an opportunity to boost regional integration and value chains within the region. Despite the crisis, some firms have performed well, even in those sectors where global demand has fallen, while others have lost market share. This paper analyzes the performance of individual firms, drawing on the study of rich micro data, to understand their different capacity of trade creation and destruction over the crisis. Results suggest five firm characteristics play a key role in explaining export performance during the pandemic: i) firm size, ii) diversification of export markets, iii) importer status of the firm, iv) distance from foreign suppliers, and v) performance of the firms suppliers and customers. The results are then used to outline policies fostering firms participation in global value chains. |
| Keywords: | global value chains;COVID-19;Production networks;Shock propagation |
| JEL: | F23 F14 L14 L23 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:12487&r=int |
| By: | Gamberale, Carlo; Tarasenko, Irina |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the issue of export licensing procedures in the WTO context. It aims to contribute to the understanding of the existing rules applicable to export licensing in the WTO, and what the development of specific disciplines would mean to international trade. The paper looks at the definition of export licensing, the past discussions on developing specific rules on export licensing in the GATT and in the WTO, the existing WTO rules applicable to export and import licensing of goods and services, and the surge in export restricting measures and export licensing implemented by several Members in the context of COVID-19 pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine. |
| Keywords: | trade policy, export licensing, export restrictions |
| JEL: | F17 F13 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wtowps:ersd202306&r=int |
| By: | Carballo, Jerónimo; Graziano, Alejandro; Schaur, Georg; Volpe Martincus, Christian |
| Abstract: | We estimate import processing costs based on the time it takes to import. Our theory extends existing time-cost measures to account for uncertainty in import processing. We use detailed, highly disaggregated data on import processing dates and import values to provide evidence for our theory and estimate processing costs consistent with the theory. The evidence shows that our extensions to time-cost estimates are economically relevant to determine processing costs. We estimate that the tariff equivalent import processing costs is as high as 18 percent. WTO estimates suggest that the full implementation of the 2013 Trade Facilitation Agreement would reduce the time to trade by 1.5 days. In that case, processing costs would decrease to 13 percent. |
| Keywords: | Trade costs;Border processing;trade policy |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:12716&r=int |
| By: | Clifton-Sprigg, Joanna (University of Bath); Homburg, Ines (University of Antwerp); James, Jonathan (University of Bath); Vujic, Suncica (University of Antwerp) |
| Abstract: | By voting to leave the European Union (EU) in 2016, the United Kingdom (UK) set off a long period of uncertainty and signalled its support for the Leave campaigns, which centred around restricting migration. This paper researches how this decision affected EU-UK migration patterns. We exploit the Brexit referendum as a natural experiment and employ a (synthetic) difference-in-differences estimator to compare EU migration (treated) to non-EU migration (untreated) in the UK. We find a significant decrease in the inflow of EU migrants, although the reduction seems too small to have any impact on the migrant stock. We further find a significant persistent rise in British citizenship applications and grants. Our results reveal that the referendum made the UK a less attractive destination and that the EU migrants already in the UK were encouraged to obtain British citizenship. The Brexit-induced policy uncertainty was the key driver affecting migrants' decision-making. |
| Keywords: | Brexit referendum, international migration, European Union, uncertainty, anti-immigration |
| JEL: | F22 J61 J48 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16468&r=int |
| By: | Jiandong Ju; Hong Ma; Zi Wang; Xiaodong Zhu |
| Abstract: | We provide the first quantitative evaluation of the impacts and interactions of the US-China trade wars and industrial policy competitions. We extend the multi-country-multi-sector model in Caliendo and Parro (2015) by incorporating sectoral external economies of scale. We find that (i) under our baseline calibration of scale economies, the "Made-in-China 2025" ("MIC 2025") subsidies tend to improve the welfare of both China and the U.S.; (ii) the US gains from Trump administration's tariffs if China does not retaliate, and the gain is larger if China had implemented the "MIC 2025" project; (iii) in a non-cooperative tariff game targeting on high-tech industries supported by the "MIC 2025", both China and the U.S. impose high tariffs and endure welfare losses; and (iv) if it is feasible for the U.S. to subsidize its own high-tech industries, the U.S. would reduce its tariffs on high-tech imports from China and benefit from its own industrial subsidies. These results (i) provide a rationale for trade wars and industrial policy competitions between the U.S. and China, and (ii) suggest that industrial subsidies, if properly implemented, may generate less distortion than import tariffs as a means of international competition. |
| Keywords: | Trade War, Industrial Policy, Scale Economies, Strategic Interactions |
| JEL: | F12 F13 F17 F51 |
| Date: | 2023–10–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-760&r=int |
| By: | Alviarez, Vanessa; Chen, Cheng; Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya; Varela, Liliana; Yi, Kei-Mu; Zhang, Hongyong |
| Abstract: | We study the role of multinationals (MNCs) in facilitating firm-level and aggregate structural transformation. Using a stylized model of multinational production and trade, we show that an inward multinational liberalization in the manufacturing sector raises employment in host country firms, and decreases manufacturing employment, while also raising services employment, in the parent firms. We also show the conditions under which aggregate structural transformation occurs. We test the models firm-level predictions by using confidential microdata from Japan. We study the response of Japanese MNC parents and their affiliates in China to an exogenous change in China's openness to foreign direct investment (FDI). We find that in industries where inward FDI was encouraged, Japan MNCs' affiliates in China experienced increases in their employment. We also find that MNC parents in the encouraged industries experienced decreases in home country manufacturing employment and increases in home country services and R&D employment. Finally, using microdata for several advanced and middle-income countries, we decompose the change in overall manufacturing employment shares into MNC and non-MNC components. We find a significant role for MNCs across all countries, suggesting the mechanism we highlight is an important global driver of structural transformation. |
| Keywords: | Multinational Firms;structural transformation;Manufacturingemployment |
| JEL: | F41 F44 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:12685&r=int |
| By: | Alviarez, Vanessa; Saad, Ayhab |
| Abstract: | Intra-firm trade, from parents to affiliates, has been combined with standard models of multinational production (MP) to deliver gravity-style predictions for foreign affiliates' sales. Nonetheless, the evidence shows that intra-firm trade is concentrated among a small set of large multinational firms. Using firm-level data from 35 countries, we document that only firms belonging to multinational corporations (MNCs) in the upper tail of the firms size distribution are significantly affected by the distance to their parents. We present a simple framework featuring MNCs selection into intra-firm trade and derive the analytical gravity equations that are consistent with the empirical findings. |
| Keywords: | Intra-firm trade;Multinational Production |
| JEL: | F12 F23 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:12525&r=int |
| By: | Góes, Carlos (University of San Diego); Segnana, Juan (Tilburg University); Robertson, Raymond (Texas A&M University); Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | We study the dynamic effects of export exposure over local labor markets in Indonesia. We develop an empirical strategy to instrument exposure to exports using exposure to foreign demand shocks and validate it showing that the labor market responses are consistent with those expected from demand shocks in a spatial model. Export shocks unambiguously increase employment in Indonesia. While effects on average income per employee are ambiguous due to industry- and sectoral-compositional effects, our estimates of district-level welfare suggest that export shocks induce an increase in welfare. |
| Keywords: | international trade, labor markets, inequality, poverty, jobs |
| JEL: | F16 J16 O19 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16473&r=int |
| By: | Besedeés, Tibor; Goldbach, Stefan; Nitsch, Volker |
| Abstract: | We examine the extent to which financial sanctions imposed by Germany through its European Union and United Nations commitments cause collateral damage on Germany's trade in goods and services. Financial sanctions reduce Germany's inflows and outflows of financial assets, as well as imports and exports of goods and services. The relative effects on trade in goods and services are weaker than on financial assets, about half as large in the case of goods and two-thirds as large in the case of services. The effect on trade in goods is entirely due to episodes where financial sanctions are accompanied by export restrictions of specific goods. In the case of services trade, only exports are affected by financial sanctions once export restrictions are considered. The primary channel through which sanctions affect the three types of cross-border flows is the extensive margin. Anticipation effects are quite strong for financial assets and weak for services and goods. |
| Keywords: | sanction, restriction, cross-border transaction, trade in goods, trade in services, financial flows |
| JEL: | F20 F36 F38 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:darddp:244&r=int |
| By: | Wagner, Joachim |
| Abstract: | The use of big data analytics (including data mining and predictive analytics) by firms can be expected to increase productivity and reduce trade costs, which should be positively related to export activities. This paper uses firm level data from the Flash Eurobarometer 486 survey conducted in February - May 2020 to investigate the link between the use of big data analytics and export activities in manufacturing enterprises from the 27 member countries of the European Union. We find that firms which use big data analytics do more often export, do more often export to various destinations all over the world, and do export to more different destinations. The estimated big data analytics premia for exports are statistically highly significant after controlling for firm size, firm age, patents, and country. Furthermore, the size of these premia can be considered to be large. Successful exporters tend to use big data analytics. |
| Keywords: | Big data analytics, exports, firm level data, Flash Eurobarometer 486 |
| JEL: | D22 F14 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kcgwps:28&r=int |
| By: | Lana, Victor; Costa, Lorena; Bornacki, Leonardo |
| Abstract: | Countries that are rich in natural resources are those exporting mainly primary goods worldwide and that specialization in commodities might result in an incentive for certain groups to hinder a country’s institutional development. Hence, we investigate the causal effect of commodity exports on the institutional quality of 49 countries between 1997 and 2019. Since primary exports might, at the same time, cause and be impacted by institutional quality, it is crucial to search for exogenous natural variations in commodity exports in combination with econometric modeling strategies. For that, we use a natural experiment, China’s accession to the World Trade Organization, to deal with the endogeneity problem, and to identify the causal effect of primary trade on institutional quality free from bias. Our results indicate that as countries (developing and developed) focus on commodity based exporting goods, they cause a reduction in the effectiveness of their institutions. Our paper is helpful to policymakers aiming to improve a country’s level of institutional quality through trade specialization. A trade policy focused on a more diverse exporting agenda requires investment in technology, human capital, to name a few. Our results show that these investments could enjoy the benefits of stronger, more effective institutions. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae23:338534&r=int |
| By: | Dolabella, Marcelo; Mesquita Moreira, Mauricio |
| Abstract: | Online Technical Appendix to “Fighting Global Warming: Is Trade Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean a Help or a Hindrance?”It describes in more detail the data sources, the empirical strategy; and presents a series of robustness checks. |
| Keywords: | trade policy;International trade;climate change;Latin America and the Caribbean |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F18 H23 Q56 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:12526&r=int |
| By: | Bogdanova, Iryna |
| Abstract: | Abstract The US-China trade war and looming ‘technological de-coupling’ instigated major revisions of Chinese laws and regulations. These recent amendments represent a major shift in the role assigned to export restrictions. In particular, China is more willing than before to use export restrictions as a geopolitical tool. To test the veracity of this assertion, this chapter analyses China’s use of export restrictions in the period from 2001 to 2021. It suggests that three distinct phases can be discerned: (i) the elimination of export restrictions before and after joining the WTO; (ii) the selective use of export restrictions for domestic policy reasons; and (iii) a shift toward strategic use of export restrictions as an instrument of geopolitical competition. Several implications flow from this new development: it endangers existing supply chains, may bifurcate the global economy by sapping its growth potential and contributes to the erosion of the multilateral trading system. About the author Iryna is a Postdoctoral Researcher and a recent PhD graduate from the World Trade Institute, University of Bern, where she worked for the project Towards a Principle of Common Concern in Global Law under the supervision of Professor Thomas Cottier. Her thesis explores the legality of unilateral economic sanctions, i.e. those imposed by individual states without authorization of the United Nations Security Council, under international law. This research was financed by the Swiss National Science Foundation, and it came out as a book in July 2022. Over the course of past years, Iryna has steadily published contributions analysing various aspects of economic statecraft and summarizing the most recent developments in this field. Between 2017-2019, she has presented her work at various academic events, including conferences organized by the University College London, the Nottingham International Law and Security Centre and the Amsterdam Center for International Law. Currently, she is preparing a report on malicious behaviour in cyberspace and unilateral cyber sanctions - to be presented at the upcoming Cybersecurity Law and Policy Scholars Conference hosted by the University of Minnesota Law School in October 2021. Iryna graduated from the Master of International Law and Economics (MILE) program at the World Trade Institute in 2015. Before that, she received her Bachelor’s and Master’s diplomas as a top-ranking student of the law faculty of the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, Ukraine. Iryna’s previous working experiences are diverse and range from work in the private sector to work in international organizations. In 2015 she worked as a consultant at one of the leading European law firms in Brussels, where she gained valuable practical experience in the field of international trade law. In 2016 Iryna was a legal intern at the Appellate Body Secretariat of the World Trade Organization, and in this capacity, she assisted the legal team with the appeals. Prior to that, Iryna worked as a legal and corporate affairs manager for a multinational corporation in Ukraine (2012-2014). Iryna’s research interests include international trade law and policy, collective and unilateral economic sanctions and their effectiveness, use of economic coercion to convey moral norms, economic sanctions and international law, regulation of emerging technologies and impact of disruptive technologies on international economic law. Iryna’s publications can be accessed here. |
| Date: | 2023–10–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wti:papers:1408&r=int |
| By: | Häberli, Christian; Kostetsky, Bogdan |
| Abstract: | The latest report on "Repairing Broken Food Trade Routes Ukraine – Africa” covers: Ukraine’s role as a global exporter Decrease of production and exports from Ukraine Current impediments for Ukrainian agricultural exports: seaports and western border This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme “Making Agricultural Trade Sustainable” (MATS) programme (https://sustainable-agri-trade.eu/). The role of MATS/WTI in this programme is to identify and explore “broken” Ukrainian - African food trade routes due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Starting with a food trade flow chart pre- and post-24 February 2022, it will assess, first, whether Ukrainian (or African) traders can again supply these products (Output 1). Failing that, whether the new EU-financed “Crisis Management” (or another) programme can possibly make up for lost Ukrainian agrifood exports (Output 2). It will also identify alternative exporters (if any) which might already have filled in agrifood demand in Africa (Output 3). Importantly, the Project also looks at the potential effect of these developments on competing farm production in Africa (Output 4). For further information and/or offer to assist in project implementation, please write to Christian Häberli (Christian.Haeberli@wti.org) or to Bogdan Kostetsky (bogdan.kostetsky@gmail.com). |
| Date: | 2023–10–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wti:papers:1411&r=int |
| By: | Mesquita Moreira, Mauricio; Blyde, Juan S.; Volpe Martincus, Christian; Dolabella, Marcelo; Marra de Artiñano, Ignacio |
| Abstract: | As Latin America and the Caribbean bounce back from a sanitary crisis of historic proportions, the search is on for policies that can accelerate recovery while boosting long-term growth. In a scenario of tight fiscal constraints, trade and integration (T&I) policies seem to fit this description. There are particularly high expectations in some policy circles that the benefits of T&I policies will be boosted by an impending reorganization of global value chains. Yet little is known about the relevance, shape, and impacts of this reorganization. Will this lead to reshoring, nearshoring, or some slightly modified version of the status quo? Will this benefit the region? This paper takes a stab at answering these questions. It begins with a critical review of the most frequently cited drivers of the reorganization. This is then followed by an analytical exercise that uses the 20182019 US import tariff hike as a quasi-natural experiment. The results seem more consistent with modest trade and investment gains for the region, associated with incremental rather than major adjustments to global value chains. It concludes by arguing that whatever the future brings, minimizing trade and investment costs is likely to remain the regions dominant strategy. |
| Keywords: | Value Chains;Trade;Latin America;Nearshoring |
| JEL: | F14 F23 F63 O14 O54 O24 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:12556&r=int |
| By: | Céline Poilly (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, AMSE, France.); Fabien Tripier (Université Paris Dauphine, PSL Research University, LEDa, France, & CEPREMAP) |
| Abstract: | Higher uncertainty about trade policy has recessionary effects in U.S. states. First, this paper builds a novel empirical measure of regional trade policy uncertainty, based on the volatility of national import tariffs at the sectoral level and the sectoral composition of imports in U.S. states. We show that a state which is more exposed to an unanticipated increase in tariff volatility suffers from a larger drop in real output and employment, relative to the average U.S. state. We then build a regional open-economy model and we argue that the transmission channels of uncertainty shocks, in particular the precautionary-pricing channel, are magnified in regions that feature the highest import share and a strongest export intensity. Furthermore, we show that an expansionary monetary policy may amplify the regional divergence since it worsens the recession in the most-exposed region to trade policy uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | uncertainty shocks, regional effects, precautionary pricing, monetary policy |
| JEL: | E32 E52 F41 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2321&r=int |
| By: | Dolabella, Marcelo; Mesquita Moreira, Mauricio |
| Abstract: | The dire prospects of global warming have been increasing the pressure on policymakers to use trade policy as a mitigation tool, challenging trade economists canonical “targeting principle.” Even though the justifications for this stance remain as valid as ever, it no longer seems feasible in a world that is already engaging actively in using trade policy for climate purposes. However, the search for second-best solutions remains warranted. In this paper, we focus on the climate benefits of tariff reform for a broad sample of Latin American and Caribbean countries, drawing on Shapiros (2021) insights about the environmental bias of trade policy. Using a partial equilibrium approach and GTAP 10-MRIO data for 2014, we show that even though there is evidence of a negative bias toward “dirty goods” in half of the countries studied, translating this into actionable tariff reforms is plagued by interpretation and implementation difficulties, as well as by jurisdictional and efficiency trade-offs. There are also questions about their efficacy in curbing greenhouse gas emissions. |
| Keywords: | International trade;Latin America and the Caribbean;Latin America andthe Caribbean |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F18 H23 Q56 |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:12384&r=int |
| By: | Villoria, Nelson B. |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the role of international trade in alleviating food price spikes when supply shocks are correlated across trading partners. Gravity-derived maize supply and consumer prices in Southern and Eastern Africa increase significantly in response to El Ni˜no Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a global climate phenomenon that induces weather correlation across continents. Hypothetical scenarios of freer trade reduce the volatility and levels of maize consumer prices but do not eliminate their sensitivity to ENSO. The results highlight that the ability of trade to alleviate price spikes depends as much on the volume of trade as on the spatial location of trading partners. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae23:338552&r=int |
| By: | Uzma Zia (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad); Fozia Tabussom (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad) |
| Abstract: | Export financing is one of the important tools of export promotion policy in developing economies. In Pakistan, Exports financing schemes are a form of government intervention for industry and in return exports have been thought as a consistent source of foreign exchange earnings. Pakistan tries to do efforts to make its economy more competitive and the country offered certain export financing schemes to support exporting firms and enhance country’s exports. Export financing schemes are offered through FBR, SBP, TDAP, Commercial Banks and EXIM bank. The impact of export financing on exports appears to be minor as reflected by stagnant exports in the country. The study mainly compares the two main export financing schemes, one is offered by SBP through commercial banks and the other by FBR. |
| Keywords: | Commercial Banks, Export Financing Schemes, Exporting Firms, FBR, SBP, Stagnant Export Performance |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2023:13&r=int |
| By: | Marcel A. T. Dossou (University of Abomey-Calavi, Benin); Emmanuelle N. Kambaye (Chengdu, Sichuan, China.); Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa); Alastaire S. Alinsato (University of Abomey-Calavi, Benin); Mesfin W. Berhe (Chengdu, Sichuan, China); Kouessi P. Dossou (University of Abomey-Calavi, Benin) |
| Abstract: | Existing studies have been separated, considering the foreign direct investment (FDI) and renewable energy development (RE) nexus and the governance quality- renewable energy development relationship. However, the study regarding the moderation of governance quality on the FDI-renewable energy nexus is quite scarce. To fill the gap in the literature, the study therefore examines the moderation of governance quality on the influence of FDI on (RE) in 37 sub-Saharan African economies over the period 1996-2020. To achieve this goal, the panel corrected standard errors (PCSE) estimation technique has been adopted. The results show that FDI has a positive and significant effect on RE, meaning that an increase in foreign direct investment could lead to a 0.05 increase in RE. Moreover, the results unveil that governance quality is positively and significantly associated with RE. This means that a unit increase in control of corruption, governance effectiveness, rule of law, and voice and accountability leads to a 9.64, 9.10, 10.10 and 9.08 increase unit in the renewable energy sector, respectively. Most importantly, the results indicate that the interaction between FDI and governance quality has a positive and significant effect on RE. Policy implications are discussed based on the findings revealed by this study. |
| Keywords: | Foreign direct investment, governance quality, renewable energy development, sub-Sharan Africa |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:23/061&r=int |
| By: | Germán González (UNS/CONICET); Victoria Giordano (UNS) |
| Abstract: | The proliferation of regional trade agreements (RTAs) and the contagion of crises characterised the pre-pandemic global economy. Both are crucial for developing countries. This paper aimed to provide evidence on the impact of crises on RTAs by studying the behaviour of trade flows and using MERCOSUR as a case study. We based our empirical strategy on a traditional gravity approach, differentiating according to the origin of the crises and the type of exported goods. We confirm that MERCOSUR has been able to mitigate external and domestic shocks, but has exacerbated the effects of regional ones. Our findings point to the difficulties in consolidating the industrialisation process in the context of macroeconomic vulnerability and volatility, even despite the existence of RTAs. |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:280&r=int |
| By: | Marcel A. T. Dossou (University of Abomey-Calavi, Benin); Emmanuelle N. Kambaye (Chengdu, China); Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa); Alastaire S. Alinsato (University of Abomey-Calavi, Benin); Mesfin W. Berhe (Chengdu, China); Kouessi P. Dossou (University of Abomey-Calavi, Benin) |
| Abstract: | Existing studies have been separated, considering the foreign direct investment (FDI) and renewable energy development (RE) nexus and the governance quality- renewable energy development relationship. However, the study regarding the moderation of governance quality on the FDI-renewable energy nexus is quite scarce. To fill the gap in the literature, the study therefore examines the moderation of governance quality on the influence of FDI on (RE) in 37 sub-Saharan African economies over the period 1996-2020. To achieve this goal, the panel corrected standard errors (PCSE) estimation technique has been adopted. The results show that FDI has a positive and significant effect on RE, meaning that an increase in foreign direct investment could lead to a 0.05 increase in RE. Moreover, the results unveil that governance quality is positively and significantly associated with RE. This means that a unit increase in control of corruption, governance effectiveness, rule of law, and voice and accountability leads to a 9.64, 9.10, 10.10 and 9.08 increase unit in the renewable energy sector, respectively. Most importantly, the results indicate that the interaction between FDI and governance quality has a positive and significant effect on RE. Policy implications are discussed based on the findings revealed by this study. |
| Keywords: | Gender political inclusion; democracy; environmental performance; regression quantile method of moments; Africa |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:23/061&r=int |
| By: | Fartousi, Hassan |
| Abstract: | Abstract Cultural Goods have the dual nature of being related to both culture and economy. The WTO considers the trade aspects and UNESCO gives value to the cultural aspects of cultural goods. Therefore, there are interactions between the provisions, institutions and practices of the WTO Agreement and UNESCO CDCE on trade in cultural goods. This book examines potential conflicts between the two agreements. In doing so we are proposing three routes to enhance legal coherence between them: propose an improved interpretation of the instruments; harmonise through hard law; and foster mutual supportiveness through soft law. The Author Dr. Hassan Fartousi, research fellow at the World Trade Institute |
| Date: | 2023–10–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wti:papers:1410&r=int |
| By: | Daniel Hyun; Jacky Lee |
| Abstract: | This paper examines factors that affect the transmission of fluctuations in global agricultural commodity prices to domestic food inflation. Using panel regressions on data from 53 advanced and emerging-market countries, we investigate how factors such as local crop production conditions, the extent of food industry development and the net agricultural trade status interact with global agricultural prices to affect pass-through to local food prices. Results show that pass-through varies significantly based on these factors. Pass-through decreases during better-than-normal crop conditions, highlighting the importance of local production. Countries with less-developed food industries experience higher pass-through, likely due to the greater importance of raw commodities in diets and less-complex supply chains. Interestingly, net exporters of agricultural commodities exhibit greater pass-through, potentially due to strategic trade adjustments that take advantage of global supply and demand dynamics. These variations in pass-through suggest potential avenues for managing food price inflation in response to shocks to global food prices under different scenarios. |
| Keywords: | Inflation and prices; International topics |
| JEL: | E31 Q02 Q11 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocadp:23-24&r=int |
| By: | Natascha Hinterlang (Deutsche Bundesbank and Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | Using the dynamic, three-region environmental multi-sector general equilibrium model EMuSe, we find that pricing carbon in Germany or Spain only leads to a permanent negative effect on output in these economies. The induced emissions reduction is not large enough to overcompensate for the increase in marginal production costs. If the rest of Europe joins the carbon pricing scheme, long-run output effects are positive. However, in this case, transition costs are even larger due to close trade relations within Europe. We find evidence for carbon leakage, which can be reduced slightly by a border adjustment mechanism. Still, it is no game changer as it mainly protects dirty domestic sectors. While Germany benefits from border adjustment, Spain actually loses throughout the transition. In the long run, the Spanish energy sector benefits most because of its relatively low emission intensity. Finally, Europe has a strong incentive to get the rest of the world on board as then the downturn is shorter and long-run benefits are larger. |
| Keywords: | carbon pricing, border adjustment, climate clubs, international dynamic general equilibrium model, sectoral heterogeneity, input-output matrix |
| JEL: | E32 E62 F42 H32 Q58 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2328&r=int |
| By: | Hendrix, Cullen; Noland, Marcus |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the factors shaping the vote of member states on the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) regarding whether to debate human rights conditions in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region of China. Explanations for the UNHRC’s decision not to debate human rights in Xinjiang fall into three categories: 1) democracy, development, and human rights performance; 2) demographic factors; and 3) security and economic ties to major powers, specifically the United States and China. Bayesian model averaging identifies three factors as robust covariates of the Xinjiang UNHRC vote: liberal democratic domestic institutions, NATO membership, and Chinese arms transfers. Countries with higher democracy scores and NATO member countries were more likely to vote yes, while recipients of Chinese arms transfers were more likely to vote no. In addition to its direct effect, liberal democracy exerts a significant indirect effect via its effect on Chinese arms transfers, with less democratic countries more likely to receive Chinese arms. Participation in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is not a robust correlate when arms transfers are considered. Thus, our analysis lends support to interpreting the vote as a reflection of wider competition between the United States and China but rejects part of the conventional wisdom about how the two countries approach building and mobilizing coalitions in international institutions. |
| Keywords: | China, arms transfers, Belt and Road Initiative, Xinjiang, United National Human Rights Council |
| JEL: | D7 D72 D74 F53 F55 H56 |
| Date: | 2023–09–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118630&r=int |
| By: | Mendes, Krisley; Luchine, Andre |
| Abstract: | Milk is one of the few agricultural products in which Brazil is not competitive. The domestic market is served by domestic production and imports from Argentina and Uruguay. The Mercosur-European Union Bi-regional Association Agreement provides for the elimination of tariffs and the harmonization of non-tariff measures (NTMs) between the parties. Because the EU is one of the most competitive regions in the world market for powdered milk, this study analyzes the effects of the agreement on the links in this production chain in the Brazilian market. A constant, nested, multisectoral, and vertically integrated elasticity of substitution model is structured incorporating uncertainty in the estimates of Armington elasticities through Monte Carlo simulations, as in Hallren and Opanasets (2018). The model allows projecting the price effect (Armington) and the preference effect in the market shares of Brazil, Mercosur, and the EU on the domestic market. The results, in the most ambitious scenario of the agreement and in the most conservative estimate, show that Brazil would lose 71.7 percentage points in the domestic market. This means reducing Brazilian production by 475 thousand tons of powdered milk. The national agricultural link in this scenario would lose 15% of the current dairy demand. This loss benefits the EU, which would participate in the national market with a market share of 58.75%. Mercosur would add 13.41 percentage points to its current share of the Brazilian market. |
| Keywords: | Livestock Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae23:338546&r=int |
| By: | Van den Bossche, Peter L.H. |
| Abstract: | We are proud to see WTI's Director of Studies, Prof Peter Van den Bossche, among the authors of the new report on “Principles of International Law Relevant for Consideration in the Design and Implementation of Trade-Related Climate Measures and Policies, ” the product of an international legal experts group convened by the Forum on Trade, Environment & the SDGs (TESS). Prof Van den Bossche worked with a diverse group of experts in international law related to climate, environment, and trade and general international law from around the world. In this report, the expert group offers governments and stakeholders independent guidance on principles of international law relevant for consideration in the design and implementation of trade-related climate measures and policies. The principles are analysed in a way that presents them as cumulative and simultaneously applicable, in a mutually supportive and coherent manner, giving full effect to all relevant parts of international law, insofar as possible. The vision driving the report is that a shared understanding on such principles could go a long way in reducing tensions and avoiding politically charged disputes at the WTO, while fostering inclusive cooperation on trade policies that support climate action and advance sustainable development. |
| Date: | 2023–10–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wti:papers:1409&r=int |
| By: | Campi, Mercedes; Dueñas, Marco |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we characterize the geography of Colombian exporting clusters and analyze how the COVID-19 crisis has affected Colombian exporters. We contribute to the industrial clusters literature by defining exporting clusters with bipartite network analysis and community detection tools. The methodology allows us to empirically detect product clusters, which are compared with an alternative definition of industrial clusters, and to consider the centrality of firms within clusters. Then, we analyze the firms trade margins during the COVID-19 crisis to evaluate whether belonging to an exporting cluster can be a source of resilience for firms. We find that clusters do not automatically lead to higher resilience and that there are differences in how firms react to a crisis within clusters. Identifying the relevant firms characteristics can guide policymakers to activate the mechanisms that generate resilience. |
| Keywords: | exporting clusters;margins of trade;COVID-19;bipartite networks;community detection |
| JEL: | F14 R12 L19 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:12527&r=int |
| By: | Knobel, Alexander (Кнобель, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zaytsev, Yury (Зайцев, Юрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Bagdasaryan, Kniaz (Багдасарян, Княз) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Baeva, Marina (Баева, Марина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Volovik, Nadezhda (Воловик, Надежда) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sedalishchev, Vladimir (Седалищев, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kazaryan, Maria (Казарян, Мария) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kuznetsov, Dmitriy (Кузнецов, Дмитрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Mirakyan, Diana (Миракян, Диана) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The relevance of the study is determined by the need to fill a gap in academic and practical research on the effects of infrastructure projects on the economic development of countries. Since the economic development of countries may depend on the indicators of the sectoral development of neighboring regions: there is a need to answer the question of the significance of different initial levels and the further pace of economic development of countries on the effectiveness of their cooperation. As one of the main factors of spatial economic development, it is proposed to consider infrastructure, the development analysis of which is proposed to be compared with the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators of countries, including international trade, the development of integration. This problem is of particular relevance for the CIS countries, where a large number of national, regional and international infrastructure projects are being implemented. Of particular interest in the study of the countries of the post-Soviet space are the so-called partially recognized republics. The situation around the Ukrainian crisis and the subsequent unprecedented sanctions against Russia adds relevance to the study of the problems of post-Soviet countries, their integration and the development of infrastructure projects. In the last ten years, there has been an increase in the activity of studying these problems, in connection with the development of the European neighborhood policy on the one hand and Eurasian integration on the other. The ambiguity of terminology in the field of infrastructure projects is noted. Among the researchers of the impact of infrastructure projects on economic development, one can single out, for example, O.Yu. Patrakeev, K.P. Glushchenko, I.V. Mitrofanov, as well as some authors studying infrastructure projects in China: S. Barizits, A. Radzyner, A. Gabuev, F. Jai, Y. Kaho, S. Chan, A. Garcia-Herrero; X. Jianwei and others. |
| Keywords: | infrastructure projects, CIS, EAEU, EU, China, post-Soviet space, partially recognized republics, integration, Eastern partnership |
| JEL: | F1 F10 F15 F21 F35 L90 C10 |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220227&r=int |
| By: | Anne-Marie Geourjon; Bertrand Laporte; Mr. Gilles Montagnat-Rentier |
| Abstract: | This note discusses the relevance of mirror data analysis for customs administrations and how these administrations can adjust this technique to their needs, particularly to support the customs risk management function. Based on IMF Fiscal Affairs Department’s capacity development experience in developing countries, it describes in detail the recommended steps to be followed to analyze the data, then advises on the operational utilization of obtained results. |
| Keywords: | Customs administration; export; data; import; revenue mobilization; risk management; tax compliance; international trade; mirror data analysis; export data; IMF Library; analysis sustainability; Customs information; Exports; Customs administration core functions; Imports; Tariffs; Valuation, origin and classification; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Global |
| Date: | 2023–09–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imftnm:2023/005&r=int |
| By: | Dumortier, Jerome; Elobeid, Amani; Carriquiry, Miguel |
| Abstract: | The increasing number of electric vehicles in the United States (U.S.) will alter global agriculture in the upcoming decades because approximately one-third of U.S. maize production is blended with gasoline (Dumortier et al., 2022a). More electric vehicles reduce gasoline demand since every litre of gasoline sold in the U.S. contains approximately 10% ethanol. The reduction in maize ethanol demand leads to lower commodity prices not only for maize but for all other commodities as well because global crop allocation is based on the relative profitability of crops. Previous research has shown that a reduction in total cropland use is expected from an increasing fleet of electric vehicles (Dumortier et al. 2022a, b). This reduction in cropland is leading to fewer biomass and soil carbon emissions from land use change, which can be counted as an additional lifecycle benefit of electric vehicles. This paper is an extension of Dumortier et al. (2022a) by assessing the effects on biodiversity, i.e., richness of mammals, birds, and—if applicable—amphibians. The analysis combines three models: (1) U.S. light-duty vehicle model, (2) global agricultural outlook model, and (3) global biodiversity model. The first two models have been used in previous publications such as Carriquiry et al. (2020) or Elobeid et al. (2021). The biodiversity model is a new addition and is based on data sets presented in Jenkins et al. (2013). The global data set differentiates between mammals, birds, and amphibians and not only covers the species richness, i.e., the number of species for a given area, but also areas with threatened species and with a less than median number of species. We use output provided by Dumortier et al. (2022a) which calculates future U.S. maize ethanol use under various electrification scenarios in the light-duty vehicle sector until 2050. The output is generated by combining the U.S. light-duty vehicle model with the global agricultural outlook model. The important variable for this analysis is the crop area by country/region. Changes in cropland are converted into GIS raster data using the spatial distribution of cropland. Based on overlaying the raster data of changes in crop area with the biodiversity maps, we calculate how many species-rich areas are impacted by an electrification of the U.S. LDV fleet. Since the information is also available for threatened species, the calculations are done for those as well. Preliminary results indicate that fewer species are affected under more rapid electrification. The U.S. has lower species diversity than other important maize exporters such as Brazil. The reduction in the demand for maize leads to an increase in U.S. exports at the expense of other countries that are richer in biodiversity. The increase in U.S. maize ethanol use had important impacts on global agriculture and a more rapid electrification of the U.S. vehicle fleet can have valuable impacts on biomass and soil carbon as shown in previous research but also on biodiversity as shown in this analysis. The analysis adds the component of biodiversity to the discussion around electrification in the United States. |
| Keywords: | Livestock Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae23:338547&r=int |
| By: | Van den Bossche, Peter L.H. |
| Abstract: | Abstract The dispute settlement system of the WTO is, due to the paralysis of the WTO Appellate Body, in an existential crisis. This crisis is a major governance failure of the WTO. At the Ministerial Conference in June 2022, WTO Members committed themselves to address this failure. This paper deals with past and present efforts to restore the WTO dispute settlement system and examines, more generally, the options available to WTO Members to overcome the current crisis. It also discusses the MPIA, which may be in the coming years the best hope for rules-based, binding dispute resolution among WTO Members. Author's Biography Prof. Peter Van den Bossche |
| Date: | 2023–10–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wti:papers:1407&r=int |
| By: | Abraham, Faith Abel |
| Abstract: | Abstract The Multilateral Investment Court initiative emerged as a result of increased public criticism against investor-state dispute settlement. While such a court may provide a timely solution to the criticisms levelled against the dispute settlement system, its establishment would entail a complete overhaul of the system’s current regime. This thesis analyses the implications of establishing a Multilateral Investment Court for the settlement of investor-state disputes. It starts with an overview of the development of investorstate dispute settlement, an analysis of its features, and an investigation of the salient problems that led to various institutional mandates for its reform. It subsequently analyses how the Multilateral Investment Court would address investor-state dispute settlement concerns and what problems may arise in case of its establishment, both in terms of operation and institutional framework, as well as political feasibility. It concludes by submitting that the Multilateral Investment Court, as currently envisaged, would not be a better solution for the settlement of investor-state disputes than the current regime, as any potential benefits may be negated by the new problems it would generate. The author Faith Abel Abraham |
| Date: | 2023–10–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wti:papers:1412&r=int |
| By: | naryono, endang (STIE PASIM SUKABUMI) |
| Abstract: | The most crucial challenge that Indonesia faces is the trade challenge created by other countries. Mining products, such as nickel, are often subject to anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures by the European Union. The existence of Law no. 3 of 2020 concerning Amendments to Law No. 4 of 2009 concerning Mineral and Coal Mining mandates the sale of minerals abroad after three years of enactment or 2023. This policy aims to downstream so as to create added value while meeting domestic needs. The mining industry in Indonesia has great potential to be developed through the downstream process. The downstream process carried out in the last two years shows that mining has made a significant contribution to Indonesia's trade balance. This increase in downstream exports has helped create a trade balance and balance of payments surplus which has had a positive impact on the stability of the rupiah exchange rate and macroeconomic indicators. Apart from that, job creation has also increased significantly. "Especially in the Teluk Weda, Obi, Morowali and Konawe areas, where the number of workers reaches tens of thousands and the average salary is above the regional minimum wage. The government's target is to integrate downstreaming to an advanced stage in order to attract greater investment. However, the downstream process is not easy, in fact it faces various challenges that need to be resolved. Such as in the process of downstreaming the mining industry in Indonesia. One of the main challenges is the large investment required. On average, downstream projects in the mining industry have quite large costs, above US$ 1 billion. |
| Date: | 2023–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:qhgdb&r=int |
| By: | Escamilla-Guerrero, David (University of St Andrews); Lepistö, Miko (Paris School of Economics); Minns, Chris (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Using newly digitized Canada-Vermont border crossing records from the early twentieth century, this paper identifies key factors that may explain differences in how female and male migrants sort by human capital across destinations. Earnings maximization largely explains sorting patterns among males, while gender discrimination has a large effect on the sorting of female migrants. Everything else equal, destinations with institutional and social environments that limited the participation of women in the labor market attracted a lower-skilled mix of both single females and couples. Although married women were typically tied to a spouse whose labor market opportunities determined the joint destination, we find evidence suggesting that their degree of agency in the destination choice increased with human capital. |
| Keywords: | migration, sorting, gender, Canada, United States |
| JEL: | J61 N31 N32 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16461&r=int |
| By: | Olbert, Marcel; Spengel, Christoph; Weck, Stefan |
| Abstract: | We investigate multinational firms' activities in tax havens and regulatory efforts to curb these activities in three steps. First, we discuss the evolution of information exchange and disclosure regimes among tax authorities, with a focus on the recent Countryby-Country (CbC) reporting regimes, designed to uncover and address tax haven usage by multinational firms. Second, we review existing empirical literature on multinational firms' tax haven utilization, specifically examining the impact of information exchange regulations and Country-by-Country Reporting. Third, we augment the current empirical evidence by presenting tax haven entity statistics from 2007 to 2021 for a representative multinational firm sample, sourced from Bureau van Dijk (BvD) Orbis and the aggregated CbC data provided by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Our analysis suggests that, if exploited systematically, the recent Orbis database provides granular coverage of multinational firms' subsidiaries worldwide, including tax haven entities in jurisdictions without disclosure mandates and information sharing agreements. Our findings reveal that multinational firms' ownership of tax haven entities peaked in 2015, with over 50, 000 legal entities incorporated in tax havens (30, 000 in Big8 tax haven jurisdictions). Although the growth of tax haven entities slowed after 2015, the overall number remains substantial as of 2021. Furthermore, European multinationals experienced a modest decline in tax haven entities following the implementation of mandatory private CbCR. We conclude by discussing policy implications and suggesting avenues for future research. |
| Keywords: | Tax havens, multinational firms, tax avoidance, Country-by-Country Reporting, transparency, information exchange |
| JEL: | H20 H25 H26 F23 P45 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:23036&r=int |
| By: | Garcia Suarez, Federico; Perez Quesada, Gabriela |
| Abstract: | Uruguay is a small market with a large export-oriented agribusiness sector. That imposes a challenge for being competitive on the international markets. One of the sectors that is most affected by the international competition is dairy production, where subsidies and market power of large enterprises rules the market. Its main export products are commodities, making it contingent on international prices. Over the years the dairy systems have shifted from an extensive grass-fed model into more intensive farming combining cultivated pastures and larger amounts of high-quality feed. Production saw a maximum in 2013 and a decline since 2014. Another side of this intensification is that as production increases, dairy farms decreases. Between 2011 and 2020 the number of dairy farms dropped 25% while the daily milk production per cow increased more than 50%. Comparing the results of the surveys it seems clear that there are farms running out of business from all sizes, so it is not only a scale issue. This put a question on whether the intensification is sustainable or not and challenge the sector on what are the causes that push farms out of business. To assess these questions, we propose a technical efficiency analysis using two national dairy farm surveys conducted by INALE (Instituto Nacional de Lechería) in 2014 and 2019 using a meta frontier approach to compare the change over time since the surveys are independent and do not compose a panel. The meta frontier allows to compare each survey as a unique group but as of using a technological common source for which a Propensity Score Match is necessary to address biases from observables. From this estimation we can find technical efficiency scores by survey and meta technical efficiency scores that reports the distance to the meta frontier. From that result we can infer if the yield improvement from one survey year to the next is due to movement towards the frontier (improved efficiency) or a productivity improvement due to a shift in the frontier. From the results we expect to provide technology paths that show better performance as possible extension and policy leading recommendations. At this point we are working on the database set up to perform the estimation, so we do not have preliminary results. |
| Keywords: | Livestock Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae23:338545&r=int |