nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2023‒10‒23
twenty-six papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici, Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Export survival for Thailand after the COVID-19 pandemic By Alongkorn Tanasritunyakul
  2. Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and Export Structures in Thailand By Juthathip Jongwanich
  3. Exporting the Surveillance State via Trade in AI By Martin Beraja; Andrew Kao; David Y. Yang; Noam Yuchtman
  4. Climate-Related Trade Measures: Assessing Impacts for Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru By Cosbey, Aaron; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien
  5. ASEAN-5: Further Harnessing the Benefits of Regional Integration amid Fragmentation Risks By Nuri Baek; Kaustubh Chahande; Kodjovi M. Eklou; Mr. Tidiane Kinda; Vatsal Nahata; Umang Rawat; Ara Stepanyan
  6. Can Online Platforms Promote Women-Led Exporting Firms? By Poole, Jennifer P.; Volpe Martincus, Christian
  7. The Effect of Offshoring on Firm Emissions By Yen Nhi Nguyen
  8. The Impact of Tropical Storms on International Trade: Evidence from Eastern Caribbean Small Island Developing States By Mohan, Preeya
  9. Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations By Julian Di Giovanni; Andrei A Levchenko; Isabelle Mejean
  10. International Policy Lessons: Integrated Report By Iammarino, Simona; Savona, María; Marinelli, Elisabetta; Sait, M. Adil; Andrés-Alpízar, Guillermo L.
  11. Transboundary Pollution Control with Both Production and Consumption Emissions By Shoji Haruna; Rajeev K. Goel
  12. Globalization and Inequality in Latin America By Dix-Carneiro, Rafael; Kovak, Brian K.
  13. Not all oil types are alike By Jochen Güntner; Michael Irlacher; Peter Öhlinger
  14. The Impact of Immigration on the Employment Dynamics of European Regions By Anthony Edo; Cem Özgüzel
  15. Two possible reasons behind the reluctance of low-skilled workers to migrate to generous welfare states By Łukasz Byra
  16. Cross-Border Risks of a Global Economy in Mid-Transition By Etienne Espagne; William Oman; Jean-François Mercure; Romain Svartzman; Ulrich Volz; Hector Pollitt; Gregor Semieniuk; Emanuele Campiglio
  17. What contribution of North-South migration to the Moroccan Economy? By Boutaina Ismaili Idrissi
  18. An Empirical Analysis on Remittances and Financial Development in Latin American Countries By Sumaiya Binta Islam; Laboni Mondal
  19. FDI, Information and Communication Technology, and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Morocco By Anass Arbia; Khalid Sobhi; Mohamedou Karim; Mohammed Eddaou
  20. Spillovers from Russia to Neighboring Countries: Transmission Channels and Policy Options By Shant Arzoumanian
  21. Knowledge Transfers from Multinational to Domestic Firms: Evidence from Worker Mobility – A Replication-Robustness Study of Poole (2013) By Stefanie A. Haller; Eoin T. Flaherty; Ragnhild Balsvik; Stefanie Haller
  22. SME internationalisation: Do the types of innovation matter? By Boumediene Ramdani; Fateh Belaid; Stéphane Goutte
  23. Promoting internationalisation of the social and solidarity economy: From local to global By OECD
  24. Determining factors of the international competitiveness of Extra-Virgin Olive Oil (EVOO) from Spain and Chile By Boza, Sophia; Núñez-Mejía, Aracely; Mora, Marcos; Lopez, Dorotea
  25. Automatic Product Classification in International Trade: Machine Learning and Large Language Models By Marra de Artiñano, Ignacio; Riottini Depetris, Franco; Volpe Martincus, Christian
  26. The decline of manufacturing employment and the rise of the far-right in Austria By Karim Bekhtiar

  1. By: Alongkorn Tanasritunyakul (Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University)
    Abstract: This paper investigates trend and pattern of export survival in Thailand compared to its competitors in the region during the period of 2000-2020. We found that Thailand has high export survival for total merchandise and its product subcategories and has high level of export diversification. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic did not cause significantly export failure for the main exporting market of Thailand. In the econometrics results, economic size of bilateral partnerships, average exports, GPNs products, FTAs, and good business environment can reduce hazard rate of exports. Relating to policy implications, government should improve business environment, especially trade facilitation, for supporting higher export survival in Thailand. Also, doing export diversification is a choice of reducing export failures. However, the decision of doing export diversification should be done by exporters, not government, because government cannot bear the risk of export failure from doing export diversification.
    Keywords: Export Survival, International Trade, COVID-19 pandemic
    JEL: F10 F13 O24
    Date: 2023–10
  2. By: Juthathip Jongwanich (Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University)
    Abstract: This study aims to investigate the role of (in-effect) FTAs in influencing export structures, defined as intensive and extensive margins (products and markets) and sophistication at product level using Thailand’s FTA-partner countries as a case study during 2006-2020. The results show that FTAs tended to generate favorable impacts in enhancing export structures in Thailand, except extensive margins in terms of new products. The preferential treatments noticeably expanded (existing) export products of Thailand into the FTA-partner countries (extensive margins in terms of market) while helped maintain traditional products exporting into these countries. Impacts of FTAs in improving intensive and extensive margins were pronounced in Middle-income partners and in manufacturing products. ASEAN and China were export destinations where FTAs driven intensive and extensive margins (markets) played a noticeable role. Regional FTAs, including ASEAN-Japan and ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand showed a limited role in boosting intensive and extensive margins. Apart from FTAs, trade liberalization through unilateral/multilateral liberalization of the partner countries was crucial in expanding (existing) Thai products into these markets. Importance of AFTA and ASEAN-China FTA was also observed when export sophistication is concerned. Imports through FTAs only helped enhance export sophistication, while there is no evidence observed in cases of intensive and extensive margins
    Keywords: Export margins, export sophistication, FTAs
    JEL: F14 F15 O53
    Date: 2022–05
  3. By: Martin Beraja; Andrew Kao; David Y. Yang; Noam Yuchtman
    Abstract: We document three facts about the global diffusion of surveillance AI technology, and in particular, the role played by China. First, China has a comparative advantage in this technology. It is substantially more likely to export surveillance AI than other countries, and particularly so as compared to other frontier technologies. Second, autocracies and weak democracies are more likely to import surveillance AI from China. This bias is not observed in AI imports from the US or in imports of other frontier technologies from China. Third, autocracies and weak democracies are especially more likely to import China’s surveillance AI in years of domestic unrest. Such imports coincide with declines in domestic institutional quality more broadly. To the extent that China may be exporting its surveillance state via trade in AI, this can enhance and beget more autocracies abroad. This possibility challenges the view that economic integration is necessarily associated with the diffusion of liberal institutions.
    JEL: E0 L5 L81 O30 P0
    Date: 2023–09
  4. By: Cosbey, Aaron; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien
    Abstract: There is a growing wave of concern for the embodied carbon in traded goods. One manifestation of that concern is large economies such as the USA and the European Union enacting climate-related trade measures, including border carbon adjustment. This paper reviews more than ten climate-related trade measures that are currently enacted or under discussion globally and five initiatives from large companies to source low-carbon inputs. It then assesses Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Perus vulnerability to trade restrictions, based on estimated greenhouse gas intensity of their exported goods (using an input-output analysis) relative to other global producers, and an exposure analysis that assesses the likelihood that current importers of these products might implement climate-related trade measures. Finally, it reviews existing scenarios of global oil, natural gas and coal demand, and asks what they mean for fossil fuel exports from these countries. Agricultural goods stand out as vulnerable, as they are the main driver of deforestation and associated emissions. The most serious threat is the vulnerability of fossil fuel exports, primarily crude oil and gas, which dominate the four countries current exports. The paper exposes recommendations in terms of diversifying the economy away from fossil fuels and preparing exporters to comply with emerging climate-related trade restrictions.
    Keywords: Trade Policy; Climate Policy; Input-Output Analysis
    JEL: F18 Q56 Q54 O13
    Date: 2023–08
  5. By: Nuri Baek; Kaustubh Chahande; Kodjovi M. Eklou; Mr. Tidiane Kinda; Vatsal Nahata; Umang Rawat; Ara Stepanyan
    Abstract: The ASEAN-5 region, which comprises Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, has benefited substantially from its integration to the world economy, particularly through trade. Rising risks of geoeconomic fragmentation could reverse some gains reaped from globalization over the past decades. In this context, advancing regional integration among ASEAN-5 members has the potential to enhance the region’s resilience against external headwinds. This paper shows that despite sizeable progress, particularly in regional trade integration, there is room to advance financial integration, which also lags trade integration in ASEAN-5. Empirical findings from the paper illustrate that a higher degree of regional financial integration could generate sizeable output gains for the region. Using firm-level data, the paper highlights that digitalization, an area where the region is thriving, can support regional integration by helping firms better integrate into global value chains, with the benefits being stronger for small and medium sized enterprises. The results also suggest that digitalization can help firms move up the value chain through the production of more sophisticated products, often coined as higher export sophistication.
    Keywords: Trade integration; financial integration; digitalization; fragmentation risks
    Date: 2023–09–15
  6. By: Poole, Jennifer P.; Volpe Martincus, Christian
    Abstract: How can policymakers promote women-led exporting firms? In this paper, we study the role of online business platforms to reduce informational barriers to exporting for women entrepreneurs. We hypothesize that, if the costs associated with accessing digital platforms are more symmetric across gender than traditional trade costs, digital trade platforms can play an important role in making trade more gender equal. To assess this hypothesis, we combine information on firms' participation in ConnectAmericas , a free and purely informational online platform, and detailed firm level export data of a developing country over a long period. We find that participation in this platform is associated with a significantly larger increase in exports for women entrepreneurs than for men managed firms in otherwise identical products and destinations. Given existing evidence on the role of women managed businesses in reducing gender earnings inequality, these results suggest that policies which encourage women participation in online environments to reduce the informational barriers associated with operating in foreign markets have the capacity to promote gender equality more broadly.
    Keywords: Online Platforms;Firms;exports;gender;Trade promotion;Latin America
    JEL: F13 F14 J16 L15 L26
    Date: 2023–08
  7. By: Yen Nhi Nguyen (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz)
    Abstract: This paper analyses the effect of unilateral environmental policies on global emissions under trade in intermediate inputs. I develop a model of heterogeneous firms with two countries (North-South) in which North firms can invest in abatement activities but also offshore the pollution-intensive part of the production in South. The model suggests that a unilateral increase in North emission tax promotes more abatement activities of the least productive firms while the most productive firms stop investing in abatement and offshore polluting production steps. Marginal increases in North emission tax decrease global emissions when the relative emission tax is low but increase global emissions when it is high. Tests using German firm-level data support the central prediction of the model: offshoring activities reduce firms’ domestic emission intensity, particularly when firms offshore in countries with lax environmental regulations.
    JEL: F10 F14 F18 F23 Q52 Q54 Q56
    Date: 2023–10–04
  8. By: Mohan, Preeya
    Abstract: Eastern Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS) have a high dependence on international trade for income, employment and poverty reduction given their extreme openness, small market size, narrow range of resources and productive capabilities and specialized economic structures, making them vulnerable to external shocks, the most frequent being tropical storms. The objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of tropical storms on international trade for eight Eastern Caribbean SIDS over the period 2000-2019, as well as the mediating role of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER). The results indicate that hurricanes have a more long-term impact on exports, reducing exports of goods by 20 percent in the month of a strike and up to three months thereafter, while the impact on imports was just as severe but more immediate, reducing imports of goods by 11 percent in the month of a strike. The mediation analysis suggests that the REER plays no mediating role in explaining the impact of tropical storm damage on exports and imports in the region.
    Keywords: natural disasters;Hurricanes;International trade;Small Island Developing States;Caribbean
    JEL: F1 F4 Q54 Q56
    Date: 2023–09
  9. By: Julian Di Giovanni (Federal Reserve Bank of New York, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Andrei A Levchenko (University of Michigan System, NBER - National Bureau of Economic Research [New York] - NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Isabelle Mejean (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR)
    Abstract: This paper uses a dataset covering the universe of French firm-level value added, imports, and exports over the period 1995-2007 and a quantitative multi-country model to study the international transmission of business cycle shocks at both the micro and the macro levels. Because the largest firms are the most likely to trade internationally, foreign shocks are transmitted to the domestic economy primarily through the large firms. We first document a novel stylized fact: larger French firms are significantly more sensitive to foreign GDP growth. We then implement a quantitative framework calibrated to the full extent of the observed heterogeneity in firm size, exporting, and importing. We simulate the propagation of foreign shocks to the French economy and report one micro and one macro finding. At the micro level heterogeneity across firms predominates: 45 to 75% of the impact of foreign fluctuations on French GDP is accounted for by the "foreign granular residual"-the term capturing the larger firms' greater responsiveness to the foreign shocks. At the macro level, firm heterogeneity attenuates the impact of foreign shocks, with the GDP responses 10 to 20% larger in a representative firm model compared to the baseline model.
    Keywords: granularity, shock transmission, aggregate fluctuations, input linkages, international trade
    Date: 2023–04–27
  10. By: Iammarino, Simona; Savona, María; Marinelli, Elisabetta; Sait, M. Adil; Andrés-Alpízar, Guillermo L.
    Abstract: As part of the activities of the Joint Program “Support for the development of an Integrated National Financing Framework for SDGs in Cuba” (CIFFRA), a comprehensive review of international policy lessons was carried out in four development financing key areas: (i) export promotion; (ii) attraction and channeling of foreign direct investment (FDI); (iii) promotion of science, technology and innovation (STI); and (iv) governance and public investment. Five reports were drawn up and two compilations with 11 case studies on policies to promote exports and attract FDI by international consultants. This integrated report summarizes the outcome of the five reports, offering cross-cutting learning and policy recommendations.
    Date: 2023–09–07
  11. By: Shoji Haruna; Rajeev K. Goel
    Abstract: This paper adds to the literature on transboundary pollution by considering pollution related to both production and consumption activities. In particular, we consider a symmetric strategic two firm-two country game model with bilateral trade and transboundary pollution to analyze the effects of trade liberalization on economic performance under two types of pollution. Our game-theoretic results with two trading countries find significant differences compared to the case where only production pollution is considered. When trade liberalization policy is mutually implemented, consumer surplus and social environmental damage in the Home and Foreign countries are both increased under production pollution, while they are both decreased under consumption pollution. Furthermore, when the two countries face either production or consumption pollution composed of transboundary pollution and local pollution, consumer surplus, producer surplus, and social environmental damage are larger in the presence of consumption pollution than in the presence of production pollution; and, under certain conditions, social welfare can be larger or smaller in the presence of production pollution than in the presence of consumption pollution. It is uniquely shown that in the three-stage game model trade policy may lose its effectiveness as a policy under consumption pollution. Policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: environment, transboundary pollution, consumption pollution, production pollution, trade liberalization, environment tax, oligopoly, tariff
    JEL: D43 F13 L13 Q56
    Date: 2023
  12. By: Dix-Carneiro, Rafael; Kovak, Brian K.
    Abstract: We survey the recent literature studying the effects of globalization on inequality in Latin America. Our focus is on research emerging from the late 2000s onward, with an emphasis on empirical work considering new mechanisms, studying new dimensions of inequality, and developing new methodologies to capture the many facets of globalizations relationship to inequality. After summarizing both design-based and quantitative work in this area, we propose directions for future work. Our overarching recommendation is that researchers develop unifying frameworks to help synthesize the results of individual studies that focus on distinct aspects of globalizations relationship to inequality.
    Keywords: Equality;Globalization;labor force;Inequality;Informal Economy;Integration and Trade;Tariff System;labor market;free trade;labor;Industry
    JEL: F14 F16 J16 J46 O54
    Date: 2023–06
  13. By: Jochen Güntner; Michael Irlacher; Peter Öhlinger
    Abstract: Motivated by the European Union's debate on sanctioning crude oil imports from Russia, we estimate the elasticity of substitution between different crude oil types. Using European data on country-level crude oil imports by field of origin, we argue that crude oil is not a homogenous good and that the relevant substitutability for analyzing the impact of trade sanctions must account for the quality of different oil types in terms of their API gravity and sulfur content. Our results suggest that, by neglecting these differences in quality, standard estimates significantly underestimate the production disruptions in crude oil refining resulting from sanctions.
    Keywords: Crude Oil Trade, Elasticity of Substitution, Refinery Economics, Sanctions
    JEL: F14 F51 L71 Q37 Q41
    Date: 2023–08
  14. By: Anthony Edo; Cem Özgüzel
    Abstract: This paper provides the first evidence on the regional impact of immigration on native employment in a cross-country framework. We show that the rise in the share of immigrants across European regions over the 2010-2019 period had a modest impact on the employment-to-population rate of natives. However, the effects are highly uneven across regions and workers, and over time. First, the short-run estimates show adverse employment effects in response to immigration, while these effects disappear in the longer run. Second, low-educated native workers experience employment losses due to immigration, whereas high-educated ones are more likely to experience employment gains. Third, the presence of institutions that provide employment protection and high coverage of collective wage agreements exert a protective effect on native employment. Finally, economically dynamic regions can better absorb immigrant workers, resulting in little or no effect on the native workforce.
    Keywords: Immigration;Employment;Labour Supply;Employment Dynamics
    JEL: F22 J21 J61
    Date: 2023–09
  15. By: Łukasz Byra (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)
    Abstract: This paper provides two possible explanations for the mixed evidence regarding migration by low-skilled workers to generous welfare states. Using a model of unrestricted migration to a developed, destination country, which provides a direct and equal social benefit to all its residents, we study the impact of the benefit in a country on the size of its low-skilled immigrant population under the assumption that migration is driven by an international difference in returns to skills, employment opportunities in the destination country, and by the generosity of the benefit in that country. We find that the social benefit affects the size of the country’s low-skilled immigrant population not only directly, via the difference between the benefit and its cost in the form of taxation, but also via two indirect channels. The benefit incentivizes taking up low-skilled jobs among the destination country’s native residents, which adversely affects wages of low-skilled workers in that country, and it increases the risk of unemployment of low-skilled workers therein. Prospective low-skilled migrants view these side effects of the benefit as “stay away” factors. Simulation of the model based on 2018 data for EU-15 economies without Luxembourg highlights the importance of indirect channels in curtailing the inflow of low-skilled migrants to a generous welfare state. When only direct channels are accounted for, semi-elasticities of the size of the low-skilled immigrant population with respect to the social benefit are between 0.2 and 0.54. When indirect channels are allowed to play their roles, the positive relationship between the social benefit and low-skilled immigration is significantly reduced; the semi-elasticities range from 0.13 to 0.4. At the level of the model’s fundamentals, the variation in semi-elasticities between EU-15 countries is largely explained by differences in the size of the welfare state and in efficiency of the labor market across these countries.
    Keywords: Welfare migration, Migration by low-skilled workers, Skill formation in a destination country, Unemployment in a destination country
    JEL: F22 H31 J24 J64
    Date: 2023
  16. By: Etienne Espagne; William Oman; Jean-François Mercure; Romain Svartzman; Ulrich Volz; Hector Pollitt; Gregor Semieniuk; Emanuele Campiglio
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the cross-border risks that could result from a decarbonization of the world economy. We develop a typology of cross-border risks and their respective channels. Our qualitative and quantitative scenario analysis suggests that the mid-transition – a period during which fossil-fuel and low-carbon energy systems co-exist and transform at a rapid pace – could have profound stability and resilience implications for global trade and the international financial system.
    Keywords: Climate change; transition risks; cross-border risks; trade; international money and finance.
    Date: 2023–09–08
  17. By: Boutaina Ismaili Idrissi (FSJES Agdal, Université Mohammed V Rabat, Maroc - Laboratoire d’économie appliquée en sciences économiques (LEA))
    Abstract: Déclaration de divulgation : Les auteurs n'ont pas connaissance de quelconque financement qui pourrait affecter l'objectivité de cette étude. Conflit d'intérêts : Les auteurs ne signalent aucun conflit d'intérêts.
    Keywords: Faculté des Sciences juridiques économiques et sociales Agdal Avenue des Nations-Unies B.P. 721 Agdal -Rabat -MAROC Entrepreneurship Foreign direct investment Morocco North-South migration foreign employees JEL Classification: J61 Paper type: Theoretical Research, Faculté des Sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales Agdal Avenue des Nations-Unies, B.P. 721 Agdal -Rabat -MAROC Entrepreneurship, Foreign direct investment, Morocco, North-South migration, foreign employees JEL Classification: J61 Paper type: Theoretical Research
    Date: 2023–08–31
  18. By: Sumaiya Binta Islam; Laboni Mondal
    Abstract: Remittances have become one of the driving forces of development for countries all over the world, especially in lower-middle-income nations. This paper empirically investigates the association between remittance flows and financial development in 4 lower-middle-income countries of Latin America. By using a panel data set from 1996 to 2019, the study revealed that remittances and financial development are positively associated in these countries. The study also discovered that foreign direct investment and inflation were positively correlated with financial development while trade openness had a negative association with financial development. Therefore, policymakers of these countries should implement and formulate such policies so that migrant workers would have the incentives to send money through formal channels, which will augment the effect of remittances on the recipient country.
    Date: 2023–09
  19. By: Anass Arbia (Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences, Salé, Mohammed V University, Rabat, Morocco.); Khalid Sobhi (Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences, Salé, Mohammed V University, Rabat, Morocco.); Mohamedou Karim (Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences, Salé, Mohammed V University, Rabat, Morocco.); Mohammed Eddaou (UMP - Professor, Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences, University Mohammed First, Oujda, Morocco.)
    Abstract: Abstract The document analyzes the relationship between FDI (Foreign Direct Investment), ICT (Information and Communication Technology), and economic growth in Morocco for the period from 1990 to 2021 using the ARDL model. Three models have been evaluated, with economic growth, FDI, and ICT as dependent variables in each respective model. In model (1), the results indicate that in the short term, economic growth is not positively related to FDI and ICT. However, in the long term, FDI positively contributes to economic growth, while ICT negatively affects it. A controlled inflation rate has a positive short-term effect, and the level of education shows a positive relationship in both the short and long term. In Model (2), economic growth and government spending have a significant short-term effect on FDI, while ICT has no effect. In the long term, economic performance and inflation remain important for FDI. Model (3) confirms a significant short-term relationship between FDI and ICT, with a negative impact. However, ICT is positively influenced by the inflation rate and the level of education. In the long term, FDI, demographic changes, and education have favorable and significant effects, while economic growth has a negative impact. Regarding the Granger causality test by Toda-Yamamoto, the cause-and-effect relationship between ICT and economic growth is strong and unidirectional, while economic growth influences the level of ICT development. On the other hand, the causality between FDI and ICT concerning economic growth is indirect and depends on factors such as population growth, education level, and inflation rate. JEL classification numbers: C190, F21, F30, L96, O55. Keywords: Economic growth, FDI, Information and Communication technology, ARDL model, Toda-Yamamoto causality.
    Keywords: JEL classification numbers: C190 F21 F30 L96 O55 Economic growth FDI Information and Communication technology ARDL model Toda-Yamamoto causality, JEL classification numbers: C190, F21, F30, L96, O55 Economic growth, FDI, Information and Communication technology, ARDL model, Toda-Yamamoto causality
    Date: 2023–09–14
  20. By: Shant Arzoumanian
    Abstract: This paper studies how output fluctuations in Russia are transmitted internationally. Using vector autoregression (VAR) and dynamic panel models, the paper finds that Russia’s output fluctuations are an important driver of output fluctuations of countries in the region, especially for oil importers, and are transmitted increasingly via trade and market confidence channels. The magnitude of cross-border spillovers is larger for countries with relatively high bilateral trade concentration, low export diversification, and weak external buffers. The paper also finds evidence that stronger public institutional quality- especially in the fiscal area- may help insulate countries from volatility in the Russian sovereign debt market.
    Keywords: Spillovers; international business cycles; trade; remittances; FDI; market confidence; emerging markets
    Date: 2023–09–08
  21. By: Stefanie A. Haller; Eoin T. Flaherty; Ragnhild Balsvik; Stefanie Haller
    Abstract: This paper replicates Poole (2013) using comprehensive Norwegian and Irish register data. Our results largely confirm the evidence documented in Poole for Brazil which suggests that when workers leave multinationals and are rehired at domestic establishments, the wages of their new coworkers who have already been present in the plant increase. However, unlike suggested in the original article there is little indication that these spillovers differ in a statistically significant way across various dimensions of heterogeneity for any of the three countries.
    Keywords: multinational firms, wage spillovers, worker mobility, replication
    JEL: F23 F61 J31
    Date: 2023
  22. By: Boumediene Ramdani; Fateh Belaid (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Stéphane Goutte (SOURCE - SOUtenabilité et RésilienCE - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - IRD [France-Nord] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement)
    Abstract: Existing evidence suggest that innovative Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (or SMEs) are more likely to internationalise (i.e. have a greater propensity to export) than non-innovative SMEs. However, it is not yet clear whether and to what extent different types of innovation (i.e. product, service, and process) affect SME internationalisation. To address this issue, this study uses a research model that integrates the resource and institutional perspectives and empirically test it using data from the United Kingdom (UK) Longitudinal Small Business Survey. Our results confirm that SME internationalisation is more likely to occur in firms undertaking product innovation than process and/or service innovation, and a specific configuration of resource and institutional drivers influence SME internationalisation depending on the innovation type. These results lead to major policy and managerial implications in relation to promoting SME internationalisation through different types of innovation, given the UK withdrawal from the European Union.
    Keywords: Export, Innovation, Internationalisation, SME, UK
    Date: 2023
  23. By: OECD
    Abstract: Building on strong local roots to address local development challenges, many social and solidarity economy (SSE) entities are increasingly extending their operations internationally. By responding to international social and environmental challenges, SSE entities can help make global value chains more inclusive and sustainable. With the pursuit of a social mission and participatory governance at the core of their operations, SSE entities adopt specific approaches to internationalise their presence. Some internationalise to scale their impact to reach more people and areas, while some do so to deepen their impact on existing target groups by leveraging resources internationally. This paper analyses what SSE internationalisation involves and its specific drivers (chapter 1), trends in SSE internationalisation (chapter 2), competitive advantages and barriers of the SSE for internationalisation (chapter 3), and actionable areas for policy makers to promote its internationalisation (chapter 4).
    Keywords: internationalisation, social economy
    JEL: F23 L31 L38 O35
    Date: 2023–09–22
  24. By: Boza, Sophia; Núñez-Mejía, Aracely; Mora, Marcos; Lopez, Dorotea
    Abstract: International competitiveness is "a measure of a country's advantage or disadvantage in selling its products in international markets" (OECD, 2014). The main objective of this research is to analyze the determinant factors of the international competitiveness of Spain (the world's leading exporter) and Chile (an emerging exporter) in the international market of extra-virgin olive oil (EVOO). The theoretical framework for the international competitiveness analysis is based on the well-known "Porter's diamond model, " which includes: 1. "factor conditions, " 2. "demand conditions, " 3. "related and supporting industries, " and 4. "strategy, structure, and rivalry, " as well as aspects related to "government" and "opportunity." The methodology used to determine the level of international competitiveness in the EVOO industry in the countries under study is mixed. The results of the International Market Share (IMS), Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Trade Competitiveness (TC) indicators confirm Spain's leadership and Chile's emerging competitiveness in the EVOO market. However, both countries have stagnated in recent years. Possibly, Spain has reached a mature international competitiveness level, but Chile has not been able to boost EVOO production and exports. Subsequently, qualitative methods were applied to analyze the determinants of the levels of international competitiveness found in the previous step. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with key actors involved in the production and internationalization of EVOO, mainly producers, cooperatives, exporters' associations, public officials, scholars, and experts. The results of the analysis of Porter's diamond model outline some similarities and considerable differences that could have an impact on the international competitiveness of EVOO in Spain and Chile: 1. Regarding the "factor conditions, " both countries have natural advantages that strongly favor olive production, the primary input for EVOO production. However, unlike Chile, Spain has achieved high availability and quality of production factors with acquired advantages, specifically, labor (in the field and technical level) and technology (machinery). This would seem to contribute not only to international competitiveness but also to resilience to the impact of climate change, for example, technological alternatives to the water crisis. 2. The national and international "demand conditions" for EVOO are very different in the analyzed countries. Spain has a millenary olive-growing tradition, which has managed to embed olive oil in the local gastronomic culture. The development of the local market has boosted the production and internationalization of Spanish olive oil. In contrast, Chile has not strengthened and expanded the local market, which is in line with the stagnation of olive oil exports. 3. The "related and supporting industries" seem to have developed alongside the EVOO industry in Spain. The fertilizer industry was the only concern raised by olive producers caused due to the Russia-Ukraine war. Although olive oil producers in Chile also expressed concerns about the world's supply of fertilizers, the packaging industry represents their biggest concern. In Chile, there are only two significant suppliers of glass containers, which prioritize other exporting sectors, such as wine. This concentration of a few packaging suppliers was a recurring concern among Chilean producers. 4. Regarding "firm strategy, structure, and rivalry, " it can be seen that the Spanish olive sector is mainly concentrated in cooperatives and mergers of cooperatives, being the medium and large companies a minority. This market structure seems to have positively impacted the sector's international competitiveness, given the ability to generate economies of scale, for example, around the oil press (almazara, in Spanish). In contrast, most olive oil producers in Chile are medium and large companies, while a minority are small producers. The fragmented and dispersed structure of olive oil producers in Chile seems to favor only individual and specific results without generating volume or sufficient international exposure, negatively influencing the international market share. The factors related to "government" include one of the major differentiators between the Spanish and Chilean EVOO industry. Spain provides conditional and unconditional subsidies for olive production, those established by the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union, which are the most valued support by Spanish olive producers. On the other hand, Chile does not have specific subsidies to support the olive sector, which only benefits from horizontal public policies such as grant funds for the agricultural sector. Finally, the growing world demand for healthy foods and the rise in international prices of edible oils are part of the "opportunity" factor perceived by producers from Spain and Chile. Only the first is an opportunity that can be sustained over time and potentially exploited by both countries. The results of this study can be an essential input for the design of intervention policies in light of the current needs of the EVOO sector in Spain and Chile. In both cases, it is urgently required to promote efforts aimed at improving resilience to face the water crisis, as well as promote communication campaigns that expand knowledge and appraisal of the EVOO qualities in the national and international market.
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2023
  25. By: Marra de Artiñano, Ignacio; Riottini Depetris, Franco; Volpe Martincus, Christian
    Abstract: Accurately classifying products is essential in international trade. Virtually all countries categorize products into tariff lines using the Harmonized System (HS) nomenclature for both statistical and duty collection purposes. In this paper, we apply and assess several different algorithms to automatically classify products based on text descriptions. To do so, we use agricultural product descriptions from several public agencies, including customs authorities and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). We find that while traditional machine learning (ML) models tend to perform well within the dataset in which they were trained, their precision drops dramatically when implemented outside of it. In contrast, large language models (LLMs) such as GPT 3.5 show a consistently good performance across all datasets, with accuracy rates ranging between 60% and 90% depending on HS aggregation levels. Our analysis highlights the valuable role that artificial intelligence (AI) can play in facilitating product classification at scale and, more generally, in enhancing the categorization of unstructured data.
    Keywords: Product Classification;machine learning;Large Language Models;Trade
    JEL: F10 C55 C81 C88
    Date: 2023–07
  26. By: Karim Bekhtiar (Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna)
    Abstract: In recent decades right-wing populist parties have experienced increased electoral success in many western democracies. This rise of the far-right, which is strongly built on the support of the working class, coincides with a sharp decline of the manufacturing sector. This paper analyzes the contribution of this manufacturing decline to the rise of the Austrian far-right. Overall the decline in manufacturing employment has strongly contributed to this rightward shift in the political landscape, with the manufacturing decline explaining roughly 43% of the observed increase in far-right vote-shares between 1995 and 2017. This effect is entirely driven by increases in natives unemployment rates, which increased considerably due to the manufacturing decline. Regarding the influences of the forces underlying the manufacturing decline, namely international trade and automation technologies, suggests that both forces contributed in roughly equal parts to this development
    Keywords: Manufacturing, Trade, Robots, Voting, Populism
    JEL: D72 F14 J21 J23 O14 R23
    Date: 2023–08

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