nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2023‒10‒16
35 papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici, Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Foreign Investment, International Trade and Environmental Sustainability: Exploring Ecological Footprints in 37 African Countries By Chimere O. Iheonu; Ekene ThankGod Emeka; Simplice A. Asongu; Princewill U. Okwoche
  2. Climbing up global value chains: leveraging FDI for economic development By Crescenzi, Riccardo; Harman, Oliver
  3. Big Data Analytics and Exports - Evidence for Manufacturing Firms from 27 EU Countries By Joachim Wagner
  4. Smart or Smash? The Effect of Financial Sanctions on Trade in Goods and Services By Tibor Besedeš; Stefan Goldbach; Volker Nitsch
  5. The Pro-Competitive Consequences of Trade in Frictional Labor Markets By Hamid Firooz
  6. Shaking up Foreign Finance: FDI in a Post-Disaster World By Robert Reinhardt
  7. The Economic Costs of Trade Sanctions: Evidence from North Korea By Jihee Kim; Kyoochul Kim; Sangyoon Park; Chang Sun
  8. Understanding the potential scope, definition and impact of the WTO e-commerce Moratorium By Andrea Andrenelli; Javier Lopez Gonzalez
  9. Frictions and Adjustments in Firm-to-Firm Trade By Francois Fontaine; Julien Martin; Isabelle Mejean
  10. Theoretical foundation for the Pareto distribution of international trade strength and introduction of an equation for international trade forecasting By Mikrajuddin Abdullah
  11. Time to say goodbye? The impact of environmental regulation on foreign divestment By Mao, Haiou; Görg, Holger; Fang, Guopei
  12. Towards resilient food systems: Implications of supply chain disruptions and policy responses By Koen Deconinck; Ben Henderson; Daniel Gregg; Daniel Hill
  13. Navigating Complexities: The Eu's Perceptions Of China's Role In The Ukrainian Conflict And Implications For The Eu-China Relationship By Dradin Romain
  14. Temporary Foreign Work Permits: Honing the Tools to Defeat Human Smuggling By Auriol, Emmanuelle; Mesnard, Alice; Tiffanie Perrault,
  15. Unbalanced Financial Globalization By Damien Capelle; Bruno Pellegrino
  16. International migration from and to Prussia: 1862-1871 By Bauer, Thomas K.; Schulze, Kathrin
  17. Endogenous timing in an international mixed duopoly with a foreign labor-managed competitor By Ohnishi, Kazuhiro
  18. Immigration and the Labour Market: An Empirical Investigation of Wages, Productivity and Workers’ Substitutability By Valentine Fays
  19. How to Get Things Moving in EU-Western Balkan Relations By Hubert Gabrisch
  20. Technological Rivalry and Optimal Dynamic Policy in an Open Economy By Yan Bai; Keyu Jin; Dan Lu
  21. Modern approaches to studying economic sanctions By Nesterova, Kristina (Нестерова, Кристина); Maigur, Anna (Майгур, Анна); Sugaipov, Denis (Сугаипов, Денис); Shumilov, Andrey (Шумилов, Андрей)
  22. A (time) series of unfortunate events: structural change, globalization, and the rise of occupational injuries By A.V. Chari
  23. The Integration of Migrants in the German Labor Market: Evidence over 50 Years By Paul Berbée; Jan Stuhler
  24. The Integration of Migrants in the German Labor Market: Evidence over 50 Years By Berbée, Paul; Stuhler, Jan
  25. Low-Wage Jobs, Foreign-Born Workers, and Firm Performance By Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina; Arenas-Arroyo, Esther; Mahajan, Parag; Schmidpeter, Bernhard
  26. Growth Effects of EU Expansion: A Penalized Synthetic Control Method By Makram El-Shagi; Steven Yamarik
  27. The Demand for Energy Imports from Non-Renewable Resources in EU-27 Economy By Ioana-Ancuta Iancu; Patrick Hendrick; Dan Doru Micu; Stefan Dragos Cirstea
  28. Debate on Recent Export Growth and Decent Employment in RMG Industry: A UNGPs Perspective By Khondaker Golam Moazzem; Tamim Ahmed
  29. Monopsony, Efficiency, and the Regularization of Undocumented Immigrants By George J. Borjas; Anthony Edo
  30. Cross-border migration in the era of the pandemic: analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on the processes of geographical mobility By Malakhov, Vladimir (Малахов, Владимир); Simon, Mark (Симон, Марк); Letnyakov, Denis (Летняков, Денис); Motin, Alexander (Мотин, Александр); Kokoeva, Nadezhda (Кокоева, Надежда); Semenov, Igor (Семёнов, Игорь)
  31. Taxation and Migration by the Super-Rich By Advani, Arun; Burgherr, David; Summers, Andy
  32. Migrant communities in Western European countries and in Russia: social demands and structural constraints By Malakhov, Vladimir (Малахов, Владимир); Simon, Mark (Симон, Марк); Letnyakov, Denis (Летняков, Денис); Motin, Alexander (Мотин, Александр); Goryashko, Sergey (Горяшко, Сергей); Dubrovskiy, Alexander (Дубровский, Александр); Karulin, Andrey (Караулин, Андрей)
  33. An Early Form of European Champions? Banking Clubs between European Integration and Global Banking (1960s-1990s) By Alexis Drach
  34. Defying Gravity: What Drives Productivity in Remote Teams? By Thomas Fackler; Michael Hofmann; Nadzeya Laurentsyeva
  35. The contribution of fungi to the global economy By Allen Grace T. Niego; Christopher Lambert; Peter Mortimer; Naritsada Thongklang; Sylvie Rapior; Miriam Grosse; Hedda Schrey; Esteban Charria-Girón; Arttapon Walker; Kevin Hyde; Marc Stadler

  1. By: Chimere O. Iheonu (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Ekene ThankGod Emeka (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa); Princewill U. Okwoche (Benue State University, Makurdi, Nigeria)
    Abstract: This study complements existing literature by examining the short-run heterogeneous and long-run homogeneous impacts of foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade on ecological footprints in 37 African countries for the period 1990 to 2019. Utilizing the pooled mean group estimator, our findings show considerable heterogeneity in the impact of FDI and international trade on ecological footprints in the short run. In particular, the findings revealed that while FDI increases ecological footprints in Botswana, Egypt, and Mauritania, it reduces ecological footprints in Algeria, Comoros, Gambia, and Togo. Furthermore, the findings revealed that international trade increases ecological footprints in Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, and Eswatini but reduces ecological footprints in Algeria, Mauritania, and Morocco. Nonetheless, the study finds that in the long run, FDI significantly reduces ecological footprints while international trade has no significant influence on the environment. The study further finds economic growth and population to be significant in propping up ecological footprints in the long run. Policy recommendations based on these findings are discussed.
    Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, International Trade; Environmental Sustainability; Ecological Footprints; Pooled Mean Group
    JEL: C33 F18 F21
    Date: 2023–01
  2. By: Crescenzi, Riccardo; Harman, Oliver
    Abstract: The fragmentation of production offers new opportunities to economies seeking to take part in global value chains (GVCs). With the help of foreign direct investment (FDI), some economies are shifting their GVC participation to an increasing number of higher value-added tasks. Bangalore - dubbed as the 'Silicon Valley' of India and one of the world's fastest growing regions - owes its success in part to policies that are sensitive to international developments and global value chains, and make the most of dynamic specialization and foreign direct investment. The two key factors – GVCs and FDI – created an ecosystem that enabled the region's economic ‘upgrading’. Following Bangalore’s precedence, the reconfiguration of FDI networks and GVCs offers much promise to other cities and regions across Asia. This report by Riccardo Crescenzi of London School of Economics and Oliver Harman of the University of Oxford sets out to build a wider evidence base for tackling the opportunities and challenges related to this reconfiguration. By offering a critical review of existing scholarly and policy literature on global value chains in Asia, the authors present in a systematic and critical manner the evolution of GVCs and their link to FDI and economic development. The report also examines the role of different types of firms and regions, the heterogeneous subnational geography of GVC functions, and the links between GVC indicators and regional indicators based on FDI. Lastly, in light of the conceptual and empirical gaps, the report sketches a policy framework designed to guide debates and public policies in Asia.
    JEL: F3 G3 L81 N0
    Date: 2022–06–07
  3. By: Joachim Wagner (Leuphana Universität Lüneburg, Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre)
    Abstract: The use of big data analytics (including data mining and predictive analytics) by firms can be expected to increase productivity and reduce trade costs, which should be positively related to export activities. This paper uses firm level data from the Flash Eurobarometer 486 survey conducted in February – May 2020 to investigate the link between the use of big data analytics and export activities in manufacturing enterprises from the 27 member countries of the European Union. We find that firms which use big data analytics do more often export, do more often export to various destinations all over the world, and do export to more different destinations. The estimated big data analytics premia for exports are statistically highly significant after controlling for firm size, firm age, patents, and country. Furthermore, the size of these premia can be considered to be large. Successful exporters tend to use big data analytics.
    Keywords: Big data analytics, exports, firm level data, Flash Eurobarometer 486
    JEL: D22 F14
    Date: 2023–09
  4. By: Tibor Besedeš; Stefan Goldbach; Volker Nitsch
    Abstract: We examine the extent to which financial sanctions imposed by Germany through its European Union and United Nations commitments cause collateral damage on Germany’s trade in goods and services. Financial sanctions reduce Germany’s inflows and outflows of financial assets, as well as imports and exports of goods and services. The relative effects on trade in goods and services are weaker than on financial assets, about half as large in the case of goods and two-thirds as large in the case of services. The effect on trade in goods is entirely due to episodes where financial sanctions are accompanied by export restrictions of specific goods. In the case of services trade, only exports are affected by financial sanctions once export restrictions are considered. The primary channel through which sanctions affect the three types of cross-border flows is the extensive margin. Anticipation effects are quite strong for financial assets and weak for services and goods.
    Keywords: sanction, restriction, cross-border transaction, trade in goods, trade in services, financial flows
    JEL: F20 F36 F38
    Date: 2023
  5. By: Hamid Firooz
    Abstract: What are the pro-competitive consequences of trade in frictional labor markets? This paper develops and estimates a dynamic general equilibrium trade model to show that the interplay between endogenously variable markups in product markets and frictions in labor markets has important implications for aggregate as well as distributional consequences of trade. In particular, I show that once markups are allowed to respond to trade liberalization, unemployment and residual wage inequality rise almost three times more than in a model with constant markups (in the steady state). The presence of labor market frictions makes the pro-competitive gains from trade liberalization negative.
    Keywords: international trade, variable markups, pro-competitive gains, labor elasticity of revenue, unemployment, residual wage inequality, firm size distribution
    JEL: F12 F16 E24 J64 L11
    Date: 2023
  6. By: Robert Reinhardt (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Université Paris1 Pantheon-Sorbonne)
    Abstract: This paper studies the effects earthquakes have on inward foreign direct investment (FDI) within a country. I use a dynamic difference-in-difference model to estimate the impact of geophysical disaster exposure in 416 Indonesian districts. The effects are only temporary: FDI inflows plummet by 90% on average in the first year an earthquake before recovering to pre-earthquake levels. The effect is largely driven by shocks through affected upstream industries within local supply chains, and centered within the manufacturing sector. This highlights the importance to also consider indirect earthquake effects through spatial and production networks, besides the direct effects on labor and capital
    Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment; Disasters; Risk; Input-Output
    JEL: F21 O12 Q54 C67
    Date: 2022–12
  7. By: Jihee Kim; Kyoochul Kim; Sangyoon Park; Chang Sun
    Abstract: This paper investigates the economic costs of the recent United Nations sanctions on North Korea. Exploiting a novel data set on North Korean firms, we construct measures of regional exposure to export and intermediate input sanctions and show that trade sanctions cause sharp declines in local nighttime luminosity. Additional analysis of newly available product-level price data reveals that import sanctions led to significant increases in market prices. We then estimate a quantitative spatial equilibrium model using cross-region variations. The model implies that the sanctions reduced the country’s manufacturing output by 12.9% and real income by 15.3%. We further quantify the potential impact of alternative sanction scenarios.
    Keywords: trade sanction, regional economy, spatial equilibrium, North Korea
    JEL: F51 R11 O18 P20
    Date: 2023
  8. By: Andrea Andrenelli; Javier Lopez Gonzalez
    Abstract: New empirical evidence and analysis of provisions in regional trade agreements help bring clarity to debates on the potential scope, definition and impact of the WTO e-commerce Moratorium. OECD analysis demonstrates that the potential fiscal revenue implications of the Moratorium are small, amounting to, on average, 0.68% of total customs revenue or 0.1% of total government revenue. Well-designed value added or goods and services taxes (VAT/GST) can help offset potential foregone revenue in most countries. Failure to renew the Moratorium would result in greater policy uncertainty and less trade, and tariffs on electronic transmissions would reduce domestic competitiveness. Adverse effects would be most pronounced for low-income countries and smaller firms. Overall, evidence demonstrates that there is a strong case for the Moratorium to be renewed.
    Keywords: customs duties, customs revenue, digital economy, Digital trade, digitisable goods, e-commerce, electronic transmissions, Moratorium, trade policy
    JEL: F13 O33
    Date: 2023–10–03
  9. By: Francois Fontaine (Paris School of Economics); Julien Martin (University of Quebec in Montreal); Isabelle Mejean (Sciences Po)
    Abstract: We build a dynamic Ricardian model of trade with search frictions.The model generates an endogenous network of firm-to-firm trade relationships and price bargaining within and across relationships. Following a foreign shock, firms sourcing inputs from abroad have three options: absorb the shock, renegotiate with their current supplier or switch to a supplier in another country. The size of these adjustment margins depends on the interplay between Ricardian comparative advantages, search frictions and firms’ individual characteristics. We exploit French firm-to-firm trade data to estimate the model structurally and quantify the relative importance of these adjustment margins at sector-country level.
    Date: 2023–05
  10. By: Mikrajuddin Abdullah
    Abstract: I propose a new terminology, international trade strength, which is defined as the ratio of a country's total international trade to its GDP. This parameter represents a country's ability to generate international trade by utilizing its GDP. This figure is equivalent to GDP per capita, which represents a country's ability to use its population to generate GDP. Trade strength varies by country. The intriguing question is, what distribution function does the trade strength fulfill? In this paper, a theoretical foundation for predicting the distribution of trade strength and the rate of change of trade strength were developed. These two quantities were found to satisfy the Pareto distribution function. The equations were confirmed using data from the World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) and the World Bank by comparing the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to five types of distribution functions (exponential, lognormal, gamma, Pareto, and Weibull). I also discovered that the fitting Pareto power parameter is fairly close to the theoretical parameter. In addition, a formula for forecasting a country's total international trade in the following years was also developed.
    Date: 2023–08
  11. By: Mao, Haiou; Görg, Holger; Fang, Guopei
    Abstract: We look at divestments by foreign firms - a topic that has received comparatively little attention in the literature - and investigate how changes in the regulatory environment in the host country may impact on such divestment decisions. We use the implementation of China's Two Control Zone (TCZ) policy as a 'quasi-natural experiment', using detailed firm level combined with city level data for the empirical analysis. Our results show that the implementation of TCZ policy has led to higher probabilities of divestments by foreign firms in targeted TCZ cities and industries. The mechanism behind this seems to be a TCZ-induced increase in discharge fees and efforts to reduce SO2 emissions. Allowing for heterogeneity of effects, we find that the effect is particularly strong for firms from source countries with less stringent environmental regulation, and those using less advanced technology. We furthermore show that firms using intermediates from polluting industries also experience a higher probability of divestment.
    Keywords: foreign divestment, environmental regulation, Two Control Zone Policy, China
    JEL: F23 Q58
    Date: 2023
  12. By: Koen Deconinck; Ben Henderson; Daniel Gregg; Daniel Hill
    Abstract: This paper explores food supply chain resilience and its connection to resilience of food systems more broadly. In terms of availability and affordability, food supply chains have been resilient to a wide range of shocks. Trade plays an important risk pooling role in allowing countries to draw on international markets in the face of domestic shocks. Some domestic policies have helped absorb supply chain shocks, for example support to low-income households or the removal of supply chain bottlenecks. Other measures like export restrictions exacerbate instability. The concept of food systems resilience goes further than availability and affordability of food. It includes broader objectives (like livelihoods and environmental sustainability), and must also anticipate a broader range of shocks, as well as the pressures generated by food systems themselves on the environment. Policy makers should therefore take a more complete systems-wide view of resilience.
    Keywords: blind spots, climate change, food security, Food supply chains, trade
    JEL: F14 Q17 Q13
    Date: 2023–09–22
  13. By: Dradin Romain (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The EU-China relationship has evolved from a mere economic partnership to a multifaceted relation, with the EU perceiving China as a cooperation partner, economic competitor, and systemic rival since 2019. In 2022, the eruption of armed conflict in Ukraine prompted a significant response from the EU, including sanctions against Russia and indirect measures like capping Russian oil prices for third countries. This event triggered a shift in EU foreign policy, with China maintaining neutrality while facing assertive European demands. This article examines the EU's view of China's response to the Ukrainian conflict, analyzing China's peace principles and their potential impact on the broader EU-China relationship.
    Keywords: EU-China Relationships, Ukrainian Conflict, Discourse, EU Perception, EU Foreign Policy
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2023
  14. By: Auriol, Emmanuelle; Mesnard, Alice; Tiffanie Perrault,
    Abstract: We study how temporary visa schemes can be designed to drive smugglers out of business while meeting labor market needs in host countries. After discussing their compatibility with a large range of policy objectives, we show how combining internal and external controls with a regulated market for temporary visas alleviates the policy trade-off between migration control and ending human smuggling. We use information on irregular migration from Senegal to Spain and the Democratic Republic of Congo to South Africa to calibrate the “eviction” prices of visas for these two routes, which are set to throttle smuggling activities. Our results highlight important constraints for governments seeking to prevent temporary workers from overstaying, especially on south-north routes such as Senegal to Spain. They suggest combining a regulated market for visas with tighter sanctions against employers of undocumented workers as a way forward.
    Keywords: immigration, ; human smuggling, ; market structure, ; legalization.
    JEL: F22 I18 L51 O15
    Date: 2023–09–18
  15. By: Damien Capelle; Bruno Pellegrino
    Abstract: We examine the impact of the last five decades of financial globalization on world GDP and income distribution, using a novel multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates a demand system for international assets. We introduce, estimate and validate new country-level measures of inward and outward Revealed Capital Account Openness (RKO), derived from wedge accounting. The implementation of our framework requires only minimal data, which is available as early as 1970 (national income accounts, external assets and liabilities positions). Our RKO wedges reveal enormous heterogeneity in the pace of capital account liberalization, with richer countries liberalizing much faster than poorer ones. We call this pattern Unbalanced Financial Globalization. We then simulate a counterfactual trajectory of the world economy where the RKO wedges are fixed at their pre-globalization levels. We find that unbalanced financial globalization led to a worsening of capital allocation, a 2.8% lower world GDP, a 12% rise in the cross-country dispersion of GDP per capita, lower wages in poorer countries and lower cost of capital in high-income countries. These findings starkly contrast with the predictions of standard models of financial markets integration, where capital account barriers decline symmetrically across countries. In a counterfactual scenario where countries open their capital account in a symmetric or convergent fashion, we find diametrically opposite effects: significant improvements in capital allocation efficiency and lower cross-country inequality, higher wages in poor countries, etc... Our results highlight the pivotal role played by country heterogeneity in shaping the real consequences of capital markets integration.
    Keywords: capital flows, capital allocation, capital misallocation, globalization, international finance, open economy
    JEL: F20 F30 F40 F60
    Date: 2023
  16. By: Bauer, Thomas K.; Schulze, Kathrin
    Abstract: Migration has always been an omnipresent topic in Germany. However, unlike today, in the 19th century the German territory was a country of emigration, not immigration. Using county-level data for the period from 1861 to 1871, this paper examines the determinants of emigration from and immigration to Prussia. The empirical results indicate that emigration from Prussia was positively associated with increasing land ownership inequality, urbanization, available transport infrastructure and previous emigration experience, and negatively related to the distance to the nearest port. Average land ownership had an inverted U-shaped effect on emigration. Immigration was concentrated in counties with a high degree of urbanization and a high proportion of industrial workers.)
    Keywords: Age of mass migration, historical migration, determinants of migration, Prussia
    JEL: J15 K37 N33 N9 R23
    Date: 2023
  17. By: Ohnishi, Kazuhiro
    Abstract: This paper considers an international mixed duopoly model in which a state-owned public firm competes against a foreign labor-managed firm. The paper investigates endogenous roles of the firms by adopting the observable delay game and shows that the state-owned public firm should never play the role of Staclkelberg leader.
    Keywords: Endogenous timing; Foreign labor-managed firm; International mixed duopoly; Stackelberg
    JEL: C72 D21 F23 L30
    Date: 2023–09–11
  18. By: Valentine Fays
    Abstract: Labour market integration of migrant workers is key to show the integration of migrants in developed countries. Consequently, the literature regarding this topic has expanded during the last decades to better understand their situation. In this context, the main objective of this Ph.D. thesis is to fulfil gaps in the literature by investigating several aspects of the labour market integration of migrants on the Belgian labour market, namely i) the determinants of the origin-based wage gaps, and ii) the impact of migrants on natives’ employment.Chapter 1, based on a paper co-authored with Benoît Mahy, François Rycx and Mélanie Volral, estimates wage discrimination against non-EU15 workers depending on their region of origin, their tenure and the product market competition faced by the firms they work in. Using a merged employer-employee panel dataset of more than 13, 000 firms relative to the Belgian private sector for the 1999–2010 period, results highlight large disparities in wage discrimination against foreign-born migrants depending on their countries of birth (especially against workers born in Asia, Eastern Europe and Africa) and hence confirm the adequacy of dividing non-EU15 workers into subgroups, as they appear to be treated very differently in the Belgian labour market depending on their regions of birth. They also suggest that wage discrimination against migrants vanishes as their firm-specific labour market experience (i.e. tenure) increases and tends to disappear in highly competitive product market situations, these results being in line with statistical and monopsonistic discrimination theories.Next, Chapter 2, based on a paper co-authored with Benoît Mahy and François Rycx, examines the influence of firm’s upstreamness (i.e. the average distance from final use, to be understood as the average number of steps/transactions before firms’ production of goods and/or services meets either domestic or foreign final demand) on wages according to workers’ origin. Based on a unique linked employer-employee cross-sectional dataset regarding the Belgian manufacturing industry covering the 2002-2010 timespan, our estimates show that firms that are further up in the value chain pay higher wages, even after controlling for a large set of worker and firm characteristics, and time fixed effects. However, the wage premium associated with upstreamness is also found to vary substantially depending on workers’ origin along the wage distribution. Unconditional quantile estimates further suggest that those who benefit the most from being employed in more upstream firms are (high-wage) workers born in developed countries, whereas workers born in developing countries, irrespective of their earnings, appear to be unfairly rewarded. Quantile decompositions further show that, while differences in average values of upstreamness according to workers’ origin play a limited role, differences in wage premia associated with upstreamness account for a substantial part of the origin-based wage gap, especially at the top of the wage distribution.Finally, Chapter 3, using detailed Belgian matched employer-employee panel data covering the 1999-2016 period, investigates whether 1st- and 2nd-generation migrants and natives are complements or substitutes in the production function at quite disaggregated micro levels of the labour market, i.e. at the firm and firm-occupation levels. Our estimates show that 2nd-generation migrants have a significant and positive impact on the employment of natives, regardless of the level of aggregation under analysis. Next, our findings suggest a smaller complementarity in the hiring and lay-off of 1st-generation migrants and natives. Moreover, our findings suggest that the complementarity between 1st- and 2nd-generation migrants and native workers is only observed when they have the same level of education, and that their positive relationship is even greater when workers have a higher level of education. For workers with different levels of education, results rather suggest a segmentation of the labour market. Next, the complementarity is stronger when 1st- and 2nd-generation migrants originate from developed countries and when a higher level of skills is required for a particular occupation.
    Keywords: Migration; Salaires; Substituabilité
    Date: 2023–08–30
  19. By: Hubert Gabrisch (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: The EU’s enlargement policy with regard to the Western Balkan countries is in tension with the necessary internal reforms. Therefore, the promise of admission contrasts with the slow realisation of this promise. The dilemma results less from the Western Balkan countries’ readiness for accession than from the admission capacity of the Union itself. Against this background, a further evolution of the association agreements – for example, in the direction of a customs union and ‘decision-shaping’ – could buy the Union time to carry through its own reforms. The legal regulations contained in other association agreements – such as the Europe Agreements and agreements with countries of the European Free Trade Area as members of the European Economic Area – offer some templates.
    Keywords: Western Balkans, EU accession, association, legal basis, EU reform
    JEL: F53 F55 K33
    Date: 2023–09
  20. By: Yan Bai; Keyu Jin; Dan Lu
    Abstract: What are a country's policy options in the face of emerging technologies development in a global economy? To answer this question, we examine optimal dynamic policies in an open economy where technology is endogenously accumulated through R&D innovation. Our key insight is that a country has incentives to influence foreign innovation efforts across sectors and over time---giving rise to optimal policies even when the private innovation allocations are (Pareto) efficient. We derive explicit expressions for optimal taxes linked to both an intratemporal and an intertemporal motive to manipulate foreign technology. A country would want to levy higher tariffs in sectors in which it has a comparative advantage, at the same time invoking domestic innovation subsidies during transition. By contrast, optimal policies under exogenous technology call for uniform tariffs across sectors and no innovation policies.
    JEL: E23 F12 F63 O38
    Date: 2023–09
  21. By: Nesterova, Kristina (Нестерова, Кристина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Maigur, Anna (Майгур, Анна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sugaipov, Denis (Сугаипов, Денис) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Shumilov, Andrey (Шумилов, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The Russian economy has been operating under sanctions pressure in recent years. And there are risks of further strengthening of sanctions pressure both from the restriction of financial relations with the outside world and from the restriction of trade. The paper presents an overview of modern research devoted to the study of various types of economic sanctions. Despite the fact that the introduction of economic sanctions is most often motivated by political goals, the effectiveness of this tool in achieving these goals not always high. However, the economic consequences of sanctions are almost always they turn out to be significant.
    Keywords: economic sanctions, capital outflow, gravity model, general equilibrium model
    Date: 2022–11–10
  22. By: A.V. Chari
    Abstract: There is a dearth of evidence on the evolution of occupational health in the developing world and on the extent to which it has been influenced by (1) the pattern of structural transformation in these economies and (2) integration with global markets. In this study, I compile a rich database on workplace injuries in India covering a five-decade period. I use these data to examine trends in the rate of occupational injuries and show that the rate of occupational injuries began trending sharply upwards starting in the 1990s.
    Keywords: Structural change, Health, Globalization, India
    Date: 2023
  23. By: Paul Berbée; Jan Stuhler
    Abstract: Germany has become the second-most important destination for migrants worldwide. Using all waves from the microcensus, we study their labor market integration over the last 50 years and highlight differences to the US case. Although the employment gaps between immigrant and native men decline after arrival, they remain large for most cohorts; the average gap after one decade is 10 pp. Conversely, income gaps tend to widen post-arrival. Compositional differences explain how those gaps vary across groups, and why they worsened over time; after accounting for composition, integration outcomes show no systematic trend. Still, economic conditions do matter, and employment collapsed in some cohorts after structural shocks hit the German labor market in the early 1990s. Lastly, we examine the integration of recent arrivals during the European refugee “crisis” and the Russo-Ukrainian war.
    Keywords: immigration, labor market integration, long-run trends
    JEL: J11 J61 J68
    Date: 2023
  24. By: Berbée, Paul (ZEW); Stuhler, Jan (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)
    Abstract: Germany has become the second-most important destination for migrants worldwide. Using all waves from the microcensus, we study their labor market integration over the last 50 years and highlight differences to the US case. Although the employment gaps between immigrant and native men decline after arrival, they remain large for most cohorts; the average gap after one decade is 10 pp. Conversely, income gaps tend to widen post-arrival. Compositional differences explain how those gaps vary across groups, and why they worsened over time; after accounting for composition, integration outcomes show no systematic trend. Still, economic conditions do matter, and employment collapsed in some cohorts after structural shocks hit the German labor market in the early 1990s. Lastly, we examine the integration of recent arrivals during the European refugee "crisis" and the Russo-Ukrainian war.
    Keywords: immigration, labor market integration, long-run trends
    JEL: J11 J61 J68
    Date: 2023–09
  25. By: Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina (University of California, Merced); Arenas-Arroyo, Esther (Vienna University of Economics and Business); Mahajan, Parag (University of Delaware); Schmidpeter, Bernhard (University of Linz)
    Abstract: We examine how migrant workers impact firm performance using administrative data from the United States. Exploiting an unexpected change in firms' likelihood of securing low-wage workers through the H-2B visa program, we find limited crowd-out of other forms of employment and no impact on average pay at the firm. Yet, access to H-2B workers raises firms' annual revenues and survival likelihood. Our results are consistent with the notion that guest worker programs can help address labor shortages without inflicting large losses on incumbent workers.
    Keywords: guest workers, migrants, employment, firm dynamics, H-2B visa
    JEL: J23 F22 J61
    Date: 2023–09
  26. By: Makram El-Shagi (Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, and School of Economics at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan); Steven Yamarik (Department of Economics, California State University Long Beach, CA)
    Abstract: This paper applies a penalized synthetic control method to estimate the growth effects of European Union (EU) enlargement. A penalized synthetic control estimator introduces a penalty term in the synthetic matching algorithm that penalizes discrepancies between the treated economy and its synthetic counterpart. We use this estimator to construct counterfactuals of the growth rate of GDP per capita for the EU accession countries. Standard synthetic control results show that a country’s accession into the EU generates an almost uniform positive impact on the level of real GDP per capita. However, by applying the penalized synthetic control estimator to the growth rate, we find that most of these positive effects become insignificant and some even become negative.
    Keywords: synthetic control matching, treatment effect, European Union, expansion, growth
    JEL: C32 F15 O47
    Date: 2023–09
  27. By: Ioana-Ancuta Iancu; Patrick Hendrick; Dan Doru Micu; Stefan Dragos Cirstea
    Abstract: Energy imports and the transition to renewable energy sources are of critical importance in the current geopolitical context, which necessitates concrete actions to tackle the energy crisis at the European Union level. This study aimed to explore the impact of imported non-renewable energy resources on the EU-27 economy. It examined the correlations and causal relationships between the GDP, the GVA, R&D investments, and energy imports from 2000 to 2021. Data normality was assessed using the Shapiro–Wilk test, while Pearson’s test identified correlations between variables. Linear and multiple regression analyses were conducted to determine the effects of changes in independent variables on dependent variables. The study found a strong association between natural gas imports and the GDP, with increases in GDP leading to a more-than-fourfold rise in imports. Furthermore, a multiple regression analysis indicated that a 1% increase in R&D investments results in a 2.21% decrease in fossil fuel imports in 91.7% of cases. This suggests that R&D investments contribute to improved efficiency and the use of renewable energy sources.
    Date: 2023–07–01
  28. By: Khondaker Golam Moazzem; Tamim Ahmed
    Abstract: As Bangladesh charts out its recovery path from COVID-19, the country’s readymade garments (RMG) industry has been experiencing an unprecedented export growth since the last quarter of 2021. In view of this increase in export, the study aims to understand the impact of this higher export growth on business and human rights practices in the RMG sector based on the United Nations Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights (UNGPs) framework. Findings of the study are mainly based on a primary survey conducted on RMG management and workers. The study findings show that a number of decent employment related indicators, particularly related to business human rights, have deteriorated to various extents during this high export growth period.
    Keywords: Export Growth, Decent Employment, RMG Industry, UNGPs, COVID-19, Export growth, Bangladesh
    Date: 2022–11
  29. By: George J. Borjas; Anthony Edo
    Abstract: In May 1981, President François Mitterrand regularized the status of undocumented immigrant workers in France. The newly legalized immigrants represented 12 percent of the non-French workforce and about 1 percent of all workers. Employers have monopsony power over undocumented workers because the undocumented may find it costly to participate in the open labor market and have restricted economic opportunities. By alleviating this labor market imperfection, a regularization program can move the market closer to the efficient competitive equilibrium and potentially increase employment and wages for both the newly legalized and the authorized workforce. Our empirical analysis reveals that the Mitterrand regularization program particularly increased employment and wages for low-skill native and immigrant men, and raised French GDP by over 1 percent.
    Keywords: Monopsony;Regularization;Undocumented Immigrants;Labor Market
    JEL: D43 J31 J42 J61
    Date: 2023–07
  30. By: Malakhov, Vladimir (Малахов, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Simon, Mark (Симон, Марк) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Letnyakov, Denis (Летняков, Денис) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Motin, Alexander (Мотин, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kokoeva, Nadezhda (Кокоева, Надежда) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Semenov, Igor (Семёнов, Игорь) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about dramatic changes in all areas of public life, both at the country and global levels. In a situation of disorientation in which national governments found themselves in the spring of 2020, unprecedented measures were taken to close state borders, which led to a cessation or a sharp reduction in migration inflows. However, it soon became clear that the dependence of a number of sectors of the economy on migrant labor is so significant that it requires a significant mitigation/removal of the imposed restrictions. Thus, management structures are facing a serious challenge, namely the need to choose a course in migration policy that reflects a reasonable balance between the imperatives of socio-economic development and the imperatives of security in the health sector.
    Keywords: geographical mobility, social mobility, international migration, pandemic, economic recession, sustainable development, human capital
    Date: 2022–11–09
  31. By: Advani, Arun (University of Warwick); Burgherr, David (LSE); Summers, Andy (London School of Economics)
    Abstract: Using administrative data on the globally connected super-rich in the UK, we study the effect of a large tax reform on migration behaviour. Prior to 2017, offshore investment returns for 'non-doms' – individuals tax-resident in the UK but with connections to other countries – were untaxed. People making use of that tax status are strongly concentrated at the top of the income distribution: 86% are in the UK top 1% and 29% in the top 0.1% once overseas investment income is taken into account. A reform in 2017 brought long-stayers, who had been in the UK for at least 15 of the last 20 years, into the standard tax system, reducing their effective net-of-average-tax rate by 18%. We find that emigration responses were modest: our central estimate is that the emigration rate increases by 0.26 percentage points for a 1% decline in the net-of-tax rate, and we can rule out increases larger than 0.4 percentage points. Dispelling fears that the targeted taxpayers were able to circumvent the tax hike, we find large average increases in income reported and tax paid in the UK of more than 150%.
    Keywords: taxation, migration, capital income, inequality, mobility
    JEL: F22 H31 J61
    Date: 2023–09
  32. By: Malakhov, Vladimir (Малахов, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Simon, Mark (Симон, Марк) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Letnyakov, Denis (Летняков, Денис) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Motin, Alexander (Мотин, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Goryashko, Sergey (Горяшко, Сергей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Dubrovskiy, Alexander (Дубровский, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Karulin, Andrey (Караулин, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The study of communities formed by migrants is crucial for understanding the political communication in industrialized countries. There are three circumstances that actualize such a study. First, in countries with a long history of immigration, institutions of public representation of migrants have been developed to ensure the participation of the latter in the political life of the host societies. Secondly, migrants can form associations at the grassroots level to find common solutions without direct interaction with government institutions. Thirdly, migrants are often involved in the social and political life of the country of origin, as they maintain contact with organizations operating in their homeland. This connection is facilitated and intensified due to various online platforms. This paper provides an overview of current research on this topic, made in Western European countries, as well as the results of our own field research conducted in several Russian cities.
    Keywords: nationality-based public organizations, public figures from a migrant environment, diaspora organizations, political communication, transnationalism
    Date: 2022–11–09
  33. By: Alexis Drach (IDHES - Institutions et Dynamiques Historiques de l'Économie et de la Société - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENS Paris Saclay - Ecole Normale Supérieure Paris-Saclay)
    Abstract: Between the late 1950s and the mid-1970s, most large European commercial banks created European banking clubs, which were hybrid cooperative organisations meant to respond to American competition and to the progress of European integration. Based on the archives of several commercial banks from France and the UK, this article examines how the three main European clubs (EBIC, Europartners, and ABECOR) emerged and developed in the 1960s and 1970s, and continued to exist despite increasing challenges in the 1980s. The article argues that banking clubs were an early attempt at creating truly `European' banks, or European champions, even though their experience was abandoned. They also participated in European integration in a different way than the one the European Commission promoted. These clubs were an important institutional response of European banks to both globalisation and European integration.
    Keywords: banking clubs, British banks, cartels, commercial banks, common banking market, competition law, consortium banks, cooperation, European banking, European champions, European enterprises, European integration, French banks, globalisation
    Date: 2023
  34. By: Thomas Fackler (ifo Institute, LMU Munich, CESifo, Laboratory for Innovation Science at Harvard); Michael Hofmann (LMU Munich); Nadzeya Laurentsyeva (LMU Munich, CESifo)
    Abstract: How can teams organize for productive online collaboration? The coronavirus pandemic has led to a large and persistent shift toward remote work. Using fine-grained data from the world's largest platform for open-source software development, we find that the pandemic reduced the productivity of previously co-located teams substantially, whereas similar teams with remote work experience remained resilient. While access to remote talent and experience are important for overall team success, our results highlight the crucial role of communication for productive online collaboration. We find suggestive evidence that, with their peers shifting to online work, remote workers become better integrated into their teams' communication. We conclude that while teams' performance may suffer from the shift to remote work, setting up systems for effective online communication can help mitigate productivity loss.
    Keywords: gravity model; open source; knowledge workers; knowledge flows; remote work; online labor markets; COVID-19;
    JEL: J01 M54 O30 F14
    Date: 2023–09–19
  35. By: Allen Grace T. Niego (MFU - Mae Fah Luang University [Thaïlande]); Christopher Lambert (Technische Universität Braunschweig = Technical University of Braunschweig [Braunschweig]); Peter Mortimer (KIB - Kunming Institute of Botany [CAS] - CAS - Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing]); Naritsada Thongklang (MFU - Mae Fah Luang University [Thaïlande]); Sylvie Rapior (CEFE - Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - EPHE - École Pratique des Hautes Études - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IRD [France-Sud] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Miriam Grosse (Technische Universität Braunschweig = Technical University of Braunschweig [Braunschweig]); Hedda Schrey (Technische Universität Braunschweig = Technical University of Braunschweig [Braunschweig]); Esteban Charria-Girón (Technische Universität Braunschweig = Technical University of Braunschweig [Braunschweig]); Arttapon Walker (MFU - Mae Fah Luang University [Thaïlande]); Kevin Hyde (MFU - Mae Fah Luang University [Thaïlande]); Marc Stadler (Technische Universität Braunschweig = Technical University of Braunschweig [Braunschweig])
    Abstract: Fungi provide ecological and environmental services to humans, as well as health and nutritional benefits, and are vital to numerous industries. Fermented food and beverage products from fungi are circulating in the market, generating billions of USD. However, the highest potential monetary value of fungi is their role in blue carbon trading because of their ability to sequester large amounts of carbon in the soil. There are no conclusive estimates available on the global monetary value of fungi, primarily because there are limited data for extrapolation. This study outlines the contribution of fungi to the global economy and provides a first attempt at quantifying the global monetary value of fungi. Our estimate of USD 54.57 trillion provides a starting point that can be analysed and improved, highlighting the significance of fungi and providing an appreciation of their value. This paper identifies the different economically valuable products and services provided by fungi. By giving a monetary value to all important fungal products, services, and industrial applications underscores their significance in biodiversity and conservation. Furthermore, if the value of fungi is well established, they will be considered in future policies for effective ecosystem management.
    Keywords: Fungi-based food, Medicinal mushrooms, Market value, Environmental biotechnology
    Date: 2023

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