nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2023‒09‒25
twenty-six papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici, Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Unravelling Deep Integration: Local LabourMarket Effects of the Brexit Vote By Javorcik, Beata; Kett, Benjamin; Stapleton, Katherine; O'Kane, Layla
  2. Policy Implications of the Biden Administration’s Global Supply Chain Reorganization By Kang, Gusang
  3. The impact of the accession to the EU on trade flows of the Visegrad countries. Analysis based on the synthetic control method By Adam Pochmara; Jan Jakub Michałek
  4. Mapping Global Value Chains at the Product Level By Lea Karbevska; C\'esar A. Hidalgo
  5. The Effects of Robotization on Foreign Direct Investment By Hong, Sungwoo; Kim, Wongi; Yoon, Yeo Joon
  6. Horizontal and Vertical Differentiation: Approaching Endogenous Measurement in Intra-industry Trade By Dutta, Sourish
  7. Globalisation and unemployment in the EU: new insights on the role of global value chains and workforce composition By Camarero, Mariam; López-Villavicencio, Antonia; Tamarit, Cecilio
  8. Regulatory Convergence within Technical Barriers to Trade By Mahdi Ghodsi
  9. Service Trade, Regional Specialization, and Welfare By Han, Yuancheng; Miranda-Pinto, Jorge; Tanaka, Satoshi
  10. International Trade and Job Polarization: Evidence at the Worker Level By Keller, Wolfgang; Utar, Hale
  11. Decode China's Economic Engagement in Africa: Evolving Policies, Investment and Trade Trends, and Implications By Zhang, Yuhan; Mekonnen, Shimelse
  12. Premature deindustrialization: an empirical analysis in latecomer developing countries By Taguchi, Hiroyuki
  13. The world's largest free trade agreement RCEP and its financial markets - A perspective on volatility and risk. By Marc Atkins; Christian Peitz
  14. Migration on the Rise, a Paradigm in Decline: The Last Half-Century of Global Mobility By Michael A. Clemens
  16. Time to Say Goodbye? The Impact of Environmental Regulation on Foreign Divestment By Mao, Haiou; Görg, Holger; Fang, Guopei
  17. Global Capital Allocation By Florez-Orrego, Sergio; Maggiori, Matteo; Schreger, Jesse; Sun, Ziwen; Tinda, Serdil
  18. Europe: Well-positioned to get through next winter without major gas shortages By Gisela Rua
  19. Learning from the Origins By Yarkin, Alexander
  20. Women - labor migrants in Russia: Russian women and natives of other countries By Mkrtchian, Nikita (Мкртчян, Никита); Florinskaya, Julia (Флоринская, Юлия)
  21. Global Competition on the Waiver of IP Rights of COVID-19 Vaccines - Focusing on the Theory of Complex Geopolitics By Kim, Dongkyu
  22. Immigrant Assimilation in the Greek Labor Market By Roupakias, Stelios
  23. CO2 emissions from global shipping: A new experimental database By Daniel Clarke; Philip Chan; Matthew Dequeljoe; Yuri Kim; Sarah Barahona
  25. Real Exchange Rates and the Earnings of Immigrants By Dustmann, Christian; Ku, Hyejin; Surovtseva, Tetyana
  26. International Attitudes Toward Global Policies By Adrien Fabre; Thomas Douenne; Linus Mattauch

  1. By: Javorcik, Beata (Oxford, EBRD & CEPR); Kett, Benjamin (IMF); Stapleton, Katherine (World Bank); O'Kane, Layla (Burning Glass Technologies)
    Abstract: This paper uses high frequency data on the near universe of job adverts posted online in the UK to study the impact of the threat of trade barriers caused by the Brexit referendum on labour markets between January 2015 and December 2019. We develop measures of local labour market exposure to prospective trade barriers on both goods and services exports if the UK were to leave the EU without a trade deal. We find that regions that were more exposed to potential barriers on professional services exports to the EU experienced a significant relative decline in online job adverts in the period after the referendum, particularly for higher skilled jobs and professional and managerial occupations. This effect was distinct from the impact of the exchange rate depreciation, uncertainty surrounding future immigration policy and the threat of future barriers on trade in goods.
    Keywords: services trade, tariffs, trade barriers, online job adverts, Brexit, local labour markets
    JEL: F14 F15 F16
    Date: 2022–12
    Abstract: This study indirectly estimates the impact of implementation of the Biden government’s supply chain restructuring policy on the U.S. and Korean economies, and derives policy implications accordingly. For the first analysis to indirectly examine the economic impact of the global supply chain reorganization of the semiconductor and battery industries, we estimate the impact of changes in the export share of the semiconductor or battery industry by country on the change in GDP per capita. Our results show an increase in the export share of semiconductors or batteries has a statistically significant increase in GDP per capita. These results support the reason why the Biden administration is moving to expand its exports through the reorganization of the U.S.-centered supply chain in the industry. By reorganizing the supply chain centered on the U.S., President Biden intends to attract production facilities in weak sectors such as memory semiconductors, foundries, and lithium-ion battery manufacturing to the U.S. through cooperation with partner countries such as Taiwan and Korea in the short term. In conclusion, this policy promotion seems to be part of a strategy to discover sustainable economic growth engines for the U.S. while checking China’s technological rise in key industries, and restoring U.S. leadership. Secondly, we estimate the impact of changes in export concentration or import concentration by semiconductor or battery item in the U.S. and Korea on the change in net exports by the two countries. First of all, in the case of the U.S. semiconductor industry, changes in export concentration and import concentration did not have a statistically significant effect on changes in net exports of the corresponding item. However, in the case of the Korean semiconductor industry, an increase in export concentration had a negative impact on the net export of the item, whereas a change in import concentration did not have a statistically significant effect on the change in Korea’s net export of the same item. In the case of the U.S. battery industry, as the import concentration by item increases, the U.S. net export of the same item decreases. However, we find that both the increase in the concentration of exports and the concentration of imports in the Korean battery industry decrease net exports of the product.
    Keywords: Biden Administration; Global Supply Chains; Semiconductor; EV Battery
    Date: 2023–09–01
  3. By: Adam Pochmara (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Jan Jakub Michałek (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)
    Abstract: In this paper, we analyse the trade implications of accession to the European Union (EU) for four Visegrad (V4) countries (Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia). The estimation of the effects of integration with the EU was carried out as a comparative case study using the synthetic control method (SCM). The selection of control variables of “donor countries”, necessary to construct counterfactual trade flows of “synthetic” countries, is based on the gravity model. We analyse the impact of the accession to the EU for 307 country pairs, which covers about 85% of the trade flows of V4 countries. Using this SCM approach we find a positive impact of accession to the EU on the country's performance 15 years after accession. The trade growth resulting from the accession - in comparison to counterfactual aggregates - is large but differentiated. The exports of V4 countries doubled, except for Hungary, while imports increased by 51% on average. Consequently, the trade balances of V4 countries greatly improved compared to counterfactuals. The trade flows strongly increased among V-4 countries, in contrast with the “Hub and spoke” hypothesis. We checked the robustness of our empirical results by running a placebo test.
    Keywords: EU enlargement, Visegrad countries, trade flows, economic integration, synthetic control method
    JEL: F10 F13 F14 F15
    Date: 2023
  4. By: Lea Karbevska; C\'esar A. Hidalgo
    Abstract: Value chain data is crucial to navigate economic disruptions, such as those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Yet, despite its importance, publicly available value chain datasets, such as the ``World Input-Output Database'', ``Inter-Country Input-Output Tables'', ``EXIOBASE'' or the ``EORA'', lack detailed information about products (e.g. Radio Receivers, Telephones, Electrical Capacitors, LCDs, etc.) and rely instead on more aggregate industrial sectors (e.g. Electrical Equipment, Telecommunications). Here, we introduce a method based on machine learning and trade theory to infer product-level value chain relationships from fine-grained international trade data. We apply our method to data summarizing the exports and imports of 300+ world regions (e.g. states in the U.S., prefectures in Japan, etc.) and 1200+ products to infer value chain information implicit in their trade patterns. Furthermore, we use proportional allocation to assign the trade flow between regions and countries. This work provides an approximate method to map value chain data at the product level with a relevant trade flow, that should be of interest to people working in logistics, trade, and sustainable development.
    Date: 2023–06
  5. By: Hong, Sungwoo (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Wongi (Sungshin Women's University); Yoon, Yeo Joon (Pusan National University)
    Abstract: This study aims to investigate the effects of robotization on foreign direct investment (FDI). We address this research question by providing a theoretical prediction derived from a simple model and then empirically testing our prediction. Theoretically, we found that an exogenous rise in industrial robots depresses both the robot rental rate and the domestic cost of task execution. Thus, it is more profitable to perform more tasks at home, leading to a decrease in FDI. Empirical results are summarized as follows. First, an increase in robotization in source countries negatively affects outward FDI. Second, this negative effect is not consistent across global regions.
    Keywords: Robotization; FDI
    JEL: F21 F23
    Date: 2023–08–02
  6. By: Dutta, Sourish
    Abstract: Studying intra-industry trade involves theoretical explanations and empirical methods to measure the phenomenon. Indicators have been developed to measure the intensity of intra-industry trade, leading to theoretical models explaining its determinants. It is essential to distinguish between horizontal and vertical differentiation in empirical analyses. The determinants and consequences of intra-industry trade depend on whether the traded products differ in quality. A method for distinguishing between vertical and horizontal differentiation involves comparing exports' unit value to imports for each industry's intra-industry trade. This approach has limitations, leading to the need for an alternative method.
    Keywords: Intra-industry trade, Vertical intra-industry trade, Horizontal intra-industry trade, Value Added
    JEL: F10 F11 F12 F14
    Date: 2023
  7. By: Camarero, Mariam (University Jaume I and INTECO, Department of Economics,); López-Villavicencio, Antonia (EconomiX-CNRS and University Paris Nanterre); Tamarit, Cecilio (University of València and INTECO, Department of Applied Economics II)
    Abstract: The participation of the European Union in Global Value Chains (GVCs) is significantly higher compared to North America and Asia and it has steadily increased with the creation of the Single Market and the launching of the euro. We provide empirical evidence on the consequences of GVC participation on aggregate unemployment. Using data for EU countries and impulse response functions derived from local projections, we show that a higher participa- tion reduces the unemployment rate in less advanced EU economies while it increases it in core countries. Our results also show that unemployment is particularly sensitive to GVCs when the labour cost is low.
    Keywords: Global Value Chains, EU, local projections, unemployment
    JEL: F14 F15 F62 C32
    Date: 2022–12
  8. By: Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: This paper analyses how regulatory convergence in different categories of technical barriers to trade (TBTs) imposed on imports of goods in information and communications technology (ICT) globally affected the values, volumes, and unit values of imported goods during the period 1996-2019. Keywords cited in TBTs that are notified to the World Trade Organization (WTO) give an indication of the regulatory objectives behind the imposition of TBTs. MAST also classifies TBTs based on their applicability, procedural and administrative uses, factors which will also be taken into consideration in the analysis. However, objectives of TBTs may provide better insights to policymakers. TBTs are non-discriminatory measures that are imposed unilaterally on all trading partners and on domestic producers. It is not feasible to analyse unilateral TBTs in a gravity setting, as they are excluded by the introduction of country-product-time fixed effects that control for multilateral resistances. However, regulatory convergence in TBT categories is a bilateral time-varying variable that is analysed in a gravity model in this paper. The empirical results suggest that regulatory convergence between trading partners in some TBT categories stimulates import values and volumes. However, the impact is very heterogeneous across TBT objectives and classes and across ICT product categories.
    Keywords: Information and communications technology, regulatory convergence, technical barrier to trade, World Trade Organization, Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood
    JEL: F13 F14
    Date: 2023–09
  9. By: Han, Yuancheng; Miranda-Pinto, Jorge; Tanaka, Satoshi
    Abstract: How much does trade in services affect regional production specialization and welfare? Using unique Canadian trade data, we document that the size of inter-provincial service trade is comparable to that of good trade, and that net exports of services are highly correlated with the value-added share of tradable services across provinces. With a spatial model featuring domestic and international trade, we quantify the effects of service trade. Our results highlight that domestic service trade significantly promotes regional specialization, with heterogeneous welfare gains that reduce regional disparities. Conversely, international service trade generates more uniform welfare gains across provinces.
    Date: 2023–08–13
  10. By: Keller, Wolfgang (University of Colorado, Boulder); Utar, Hale (Grinnell College)
    Abstract: We employ employer-employee matched data from Denmark and utilize plausibly exogenous variation in the rise of import competition due to the dismantling of import quotas as China entered the World Trade Organization to show, first, that rising import competition has led to reduced employment in mid-wage occupations compensated by an increased likelihood of employment in both low-wage and high-wage occupations. Workers with higher education are more likely to move from mid- to high-wage occupations due to trade compared to moving from mid- to low-wage occupations. Employing task content information of detailed occupations, we also show that workers performing manual tasks are the ones most affected by import competition independently of the routine-task intensity of occupations. This implies that the effect of import competition is distinct from that of routine task-replacing technological change
    Keywords: job polarization, employer-employee matched data, import competition, job trajectories of individual workers, trade, technology, task, China, Denmark
    JEL: F14 F16 F66 J23 J24 J62
    Date: 2023–08
  11. By: Zhang, Yuhan; Mekonnen, Shimelse
    Abstract: This working paper systematically analyzes the dynamic commercial relationship between China and Africa. Utilizing Natural Language Processing and content analysis of meticulously collected policy documents, this study finds that the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and other proposals by President Xi have shaped the policy direction of China-Africa collaborations, highlighting areas like industrial evolution, infrastructure synergies, agricultural modernization, and sustainable development. By exploring historical economic data, this study also finds that the BRI has significantly influenced Chinese financial commitments to Africa, with investment benefiting 30 distinct African countries, spanning sectors beyond natural resources, and involving both state-owned and private entities. Trade data suggests emerging signs of diversification and reveals China's consistent trade surpluses with Africa, influenced by significant Chinese capital outflows. While Africa's emerging signs of diversification are encouraging, it needs to further diversify into manufacturing and services to avoid mirroring past trade patterns with the West. Our machine learning analysis anticipates China-Africa trade to surpass $300 billion by 2025-6. In light of evolving policies and economic trajectories, this study identifies burgeoning opportunities in sectors like e-commerce, fintech, and agritech, underlying the immense potential of China-Africa commercial ties. However, it is important to acknowledge that China-Africa commercial cooperation is not without challenges. Disparities in trade balances, concerns about debt sustainability, and local economic impacts have sometimes strained relations, which require continuing attention and further research.
    Keywords: Machine Learning, Economic Policy, China, Africa, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Investment, Trade, Commercial Opportunities
    JEL: A1 A12
    Date: 2023
  12. By: Taguchi, Hiroyuki
    Abstract: This study examines whether latecomer developing countries worldwide have experienced premature deindustrialization. The main findings of this study are as follows. First, the fixed effect model based on panel data, as a baseline analysis for examining the manufacturing-income nexus using the latecomer index, identified the existence of premature deindustrialization in latecomer developing economies under globalization in the post-1990 period. Second, from a geographical perspective, the acceleration of premature deindustrialization was confirmed in Latin America and some areas of Africa. Third, the quantile regression, which served for checking the robustness of the fixed effect model estimation results, also supported the existence of premature deindustrialization in latecomer developing economies. Finally, alternative estimations demonstrated that partaking in global value chains (GVC) facilitated industrialization, whereas natural resource abundance prevented it. Regarding policy implications, GVC participation can be a viable policy for mitigating premature deindustrialization in latecomer developing economies; for resource-rich economies to prevent the Dutch disease effect from accelerating premature deindustrialization, their resource revenues could be mobilized to productive uses, like infrastructure development.
    Keywords: Premature deindustrialization, latecomer developing countries, fixed effect model, globalization, global value chains
    JEL: F10 O14
    Date: 2023–08
  13. By: Marc Atkins (Paderborn University); Christian Peitz (Paderborn University)
    Abstract: We analyse the largest financial markets as well as the most a affected industries of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) zone and examine them for their respective market risk and stability. Trade decisions with RCEP member countries are in uenced by the stability of financial markets within the RCEP free trade area. To this end, we examine the largest financial markets in terms of volatility and risk using various GARCH models. Our focus is on the financial markets of the largest of the 15 RCEP member countries, namely China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Indonesia and Thailand. We consider whether RCEP's expected entry into force as well as this event itself have an impact on the respective financial markets by means of an event analysis. We further derive the most e ected industries by the agreement and extend our analysis to the sector-level. We examine the largest companies of the automotive industry, the computer, electronic and electrical equipment sector as well as the chemical industry and analyse their performance and volatility over time.
    Keywords: ARCH models, trade policy, RCEP, event analysis, financial risk
    JEL: C51 F13 G14 G32
    Date: 2023–08
  14. By: Michael A. Clemens (Center for Global Development; IZA; CReAM)
    Abstract: The past several decades have witnessed a rebirth of global labor mobility. Workers have begun to move between countries at rates not seen since before World War One. During the same period, economists’ study of international migration has been framed by a particular textbook model of location choice. This paper reviews the evidence on the economic causes and effects of global migration during the past half century. That evidence falsifies most of the core predictions of the old model. The economics of migration will regain vitality and relevance by discarding and replacing its outworn paradigm.
    JEL: F22 J61 O15
    Date: 2022–01–28
  15. By: BIANCARDI Daniele (European Commission - JRC); MARTINEZ CILLERO Maria (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: This note presents the latest trends in the investment behaviour of multinational enterprises focusing on non-EU (foreign) investors. It looks at merger and acquisition (M&A) deals and other equity investments of at least 10% of capital of the target company in the EU, as well as at greenfield projects.
    Date: 2023–08
  16. By: Mao, Haiou (Huazhong University); Görg, Holger (Kiel Institute for the World Economy); Fang, Guopei (Huazhong University)
    Abstract: We look at divestments by foreign firms – a topic that has received comparatively little attention in the literature – and investigate how changes in the regulatory environment in the host country may impact on such divestment decisions. We use the implementation of China's Two Control Zone (TCZ) policy as a "quasi-natural experiment", using detailed firm level combined with city level data for the empirical analysis. Our results show that the implementation of TCZ policy has led to higher probabilities of divestments by foreign firms in targeted TCZ cities and industries. The mechanism behind this seems to be a TCZ-induced increase in discharge fees and efforts to reduce SO2 emissions. Allowing for heterogeneity of effects, we find that the effect is particularly strong for firms from source countries with less stringent environmental regulation, and those using less advanced technology. We furthermore show that firms using intermediates from polluting industries also experience a higher probability of divestment.
    Keywords: foreign divestment, environmental regulation, Two Control Zone Policy, China
    JEL: F23 Q58
    Date: 2023–08
  17. By: Florez-Orrego, Sergio; Maggiori, Matteo; Schreger, Jesse; Sun, Ziwen; Tinda, Serdil
    Abstract: We survey the literature on global capital allocation. We begin by reviewing the rise of cross-border investment, the shift towards portfolio investment, and the literature focusing on aggregate patterns in multilateral and bilateral positions. We then turn to the recent literature that uses micro-data to document patterns in global capital allocations. We focus on the importance of the currency of denomination of assets in international portfolios and the role that tax havens and offshore financial centers play in intermediating global capital. We conclude with directions for future research in this area.
    Date: 2023–08–18
  18. By: Gisela Rua
    Abstract: Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 and resulting international sanctions, natural gas imports from Russia to Europe declined drastically to well below their historical averages. This reduction raised concerns about Europe’s energy supply, given its dependence on Russian gas.
    Date: 2023–08–07
  19. By: Yarkin, Alexander
    Abstract: How do political preferences and voting behaviors respond to information coming from abroad? Focusing on the international migration network, I document that opinion changes at the origins spill over to 1st- and 2nd-generation immigrants abroad. Local diasporas, social media, and family ties to the origins facilitate the transmission, while social integration at destination weakens it. Using the variation in the magnitude, timing, and type of origin-country exposure to the European Refugee Crisis of 2015, I show that salient events trigger learning from the origins. Welcoming asylum policies at the origins decrease opposition to non-Europeans and far-right voting abroad. Transitory refugee flows through the origins send abroad the backlash. Data from Google Trends and Facebook suggests elevated attention to events at the origins and communication with like-minded groups as mechanisms. Similar spillovers following the passage of same-sex marriage laws show the phenomenon generalizes beyond refugee attitudes.
    Keywords: Immigration, Social Networks, Spillovers, Political Attitudes, Integration
    JEL: O15 Z13 D72 D83 P00 J61 F22
    Date: 2023
  20. By: Mkrtchian, Nikita (Мкртчян, Никита) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Florinskaya, Julia (Флоринская, Юлия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: This paper focuses on statistical estimates of female foreign labor migration to Russia and labor migration of Russian women within Russia. This is the first-time women’s internal and external labor migration is assessed in quantitative terms and the age composition of female migration is analyzed in comparison with the male labor migration. The main donor countries of labor migration to Russia for foreign female migrants were ranked; for domestic labor migration, the leading regions for employment of female labor migrants were identified, as well as the main regions that are donors of female labor migration. Data on internal labor migration also allows us to assess the sectoral employment of female migrants in comparison with the employed population and male migrants, and to highlight some social and demographic characteristics of this population group. The analysis is based on data from Rosstat and the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs. The number of external female labor migrants is estimated at about one million, while the number of internal female labor migrants is less than 300 thousand annually. Female foreign migrants are older than male labor migrants, in contrast to domestic labor migrants, where women, on the contrary, are younger than men. The main donor countries for female labor migration are countries of the CIS, while the share of women in migration from the Central Asian countries (Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, which are the top donor countries in terms of labor migration to Russia) does not exceed 12–13%. The main sources of internal female labor migration are such regions as the Republic of Kalmykia (the absolute leader in terms of the intensity of such migration), the republics of Mari El, Mordovia, Chuvashia, Kabardino-Balkaria, followed by the regions of Central Russia. Regions of the Far East and the North, as well as Moscow and St. Petersburg, have little to no outgoing female labor migration. Female internal labor migrants work in all regions of Russia, with a clearly greater gravitation toward the largest urban agglomerations than male internal labor migrants.
    Keywords: international migration, internal migration, female migration, labor market, households
    JEL: J61 R23
    Date: 2021–09–21
  21. By: Kim, Dongkyu
    Abstract: This article delves into the international competition for COVID-19 vaccine patents, focusing on the tensions between policies and systems, cyber diplomacy for solidarity, and security discourse. These aspects are examined through the lens of the Complex Geopolitics theory, which encompasses technological changes. Firstly, concerning security discourse, apprehensions arose regarding the potential transfer of vaccine technology from holders and companies, particularly from the United States, to Russia and China. The concept of Friction between Policies and Systems pertains to the distribution and accessibility policies for vaccines. Specifically, the discourse on compulsory licensing under TRIPs Article 31 and Article 5A of the Paris Agreement has led to a division between central and peripheral countries. In addition to compulsory licensing, France, Russia, China, and other third countries advocated for a straightforward waiver of patent rights. However, Germany and Italy argued that such a waiver would not effectively prevent global pandemics. Lastly, Diplomacy for Solidarity reveals that although the COVID-19 vaccine deliberations prompted diplomatic maneuvers by major powers to secure vaccine alliances, instances of solidarity diplomacy regarding vaccine patents are rare. Notwithstanding, notable examples include the R&D investments between the Austrian and Danish heads of government, as well as the Inclusive Vaccine Alliance comprising Italy, Germany, France, and the Netherlands. Regrettably, these efforts seem more focused on equitable vaccine access rather than patent waiver and/or compulsory licensing. Thus, we confront an imperative time to delve deeper into the discussion of the "third way" advocated by the WTO Director-General.
    Date: 2023–08–25
  22. By: Roupakias, Stelios
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the economic integration of immigrants in Greece, employing microdata from the 2001 and 2011 decennial Censuses combined with aggregate data from the 2006 Structure of Earnings Survey. By means of probit and multinomial logit regressions, we document that migrants are, upon arrival, less likely to be employed relative to similar natives. On the contrary, their odds of being overeducated or holding a low-paying job are higher. There is, however, substantial heterogeneity between the different origin groups considered. Residence in Greece helps migrants to narrow the initial employment gap, whilst its impact on occupational mobility appears to be limited. The assimilation process of female migrants is much slower than that of their male counterparts.
    Keywords: Immigrant assimilation
    JEL: J60 J62
    Date: 2023–08–22
  23. By: Daniel Clarke; Philip Chan; Matthew Dequeljoe; Yuri Kim; Sarah Barahona
    Abstract: The shipping industry is essential for international trade, but it is also an important source of CO2 emissions. To make progress towards climate targets, countries need to monitor CO2 emissions from vessels owned by their ship operator companies. However, most shipping activity takes place outside national borders, making it more difficult to monitor than activity taking place within countries. The OECD’s experimental database on OECD.stat provides a new source of data for CO2 emissions from global shipping, which is available monthly in near real time. This data will help national statistics producers to compile their Air Emission Accounts (AEAs) for the System of Environmental Economic Accounting (SEEA). This Working Paper presents some initial results from the new data source and describes how they were produced. The method is based on granular and timely ship-level data provided by the United Nations Global Platform, and it uses a bottom-up estimation approach to produce results broken down by country and type of ship.
    Keywords: Climate, Environmental-economic accounting, Greenhouse gas emissions, Net zero, Transport
    JEL: L91 Q56
    Date: 2023–09–12
  24. By: Rod Tyers (Business School, University of Western Australia and Research School of Economics, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA), Australian National University); Yixiao Zhou (School of Economics, Finance and Property, Curtin University and Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University)
    Abstract: International competition over the most sophisticated tech has heated up recently, approaching the forefront of great power rivalry. Meanwhile, the accelerated automation that flows from it is a primary cause of rising inequality. While strategic motivations are uppermost, there are consequences for wider economic performance. We examine these economic consequences at a global level, using a six-region global macro model with multiple households. While tech advancement means “more for less” overall, the low-skilled are hurt by it and Pareto improvement requires compensatory policies. Desirability depends on whether welfare criteria are Rawlsian, Benthamite, capital friendly, or GDP maximizing. Even where automation introduces only bias, tech advancement and automation are expansionary since they raise capital returns and attract investment. Fostering them turns out to be a dominant strategy under all but the Rawlsian criterion.
    Keywords: Tech rivalry, Automation, income distribution, taxes, transfers, global modelling
    JEL: C68 D33 F21 F42 O33
    Date: 2023
  25. By: Dustmann, Christian (University College London); Ku, Hyejin (University College London); Surovtseva, Tetyana (New York University, Abu Dhabi)
    Abstract: We relate origin-destination real price differences to immigrants' reservation wages and their career trajectories, exploiting administrative data from Germany and the 2004 enlargement of the European Union. We find that immigrants who enter Germany when a unit of earnings from Germany allows for larger consumption at home settle for lower entry wages, but subsequently catch up to those arriving with less favourable exchange rates, through transition to better-paying occupations and firms. Similar patterns hold in the US data. Our analysis offers one explanation for the widespread phenomenon of immigrants' downgrading, with new implications for immigrant cohort effects and assimilation profiles.
    Keywords: real exchange rate, reservation wage, immigrant downgrading, earnings assimilation
    JEL: J24 J31 J61 O15 O24
    Date: 2023–08
  26. By: Adrien Fabre (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Thomas Douenne (UvA - University of Amsterdam [Amsterdam]); Linus Mattauch (TU - Technical University of Berlin / Technische Universität Berlin)
    Abstract: We document majority support for policies entailing global redistribution and climate mitigation. Recent surveys on 40, 680 respondents in 20 countries covering 72% of global carbon emissions show strong support for an effective and progressive way to combat climate change and poverty: a global carbon price funding a global basic income, called the "Global Climate Scheme" (GCS). Using complementary surveys on 8, 000 respondents in the U.S., France, Germany, Spain, and the UK, we test several hypotheses that could reconcile strong stated support with a lack of salience in policy circles. A list experiment shows no evidence of social desirability bias, majorities are willing to sign a real-stake petition, and global redistribution ranks high in the prioritization of policies. Conjoint analyses reveal that a platform is more likely to be preferred if it contains the GCS or a global tax on millionaires. Universalistic attitudes are confirmed by an incentivized donation. In sum, our findings indicate that global policies are genuinely supported by a majority of the population. Public opinion is therefore not the reason that they do not prominently enter political debates.
    Keywords: Climate change, global policies, cap-and-trade, attitudes, survey
    Date: 2023–06

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