nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2023‒09‒18
25 papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici, Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Demand Volatility and Firm Export Margins: Evidence from Egypt By Yasmine Kamal
  2. Has the Least developed countries' TRIPS Waiver Delivered on its Promise of Creating a Viable Technological Base? By Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm
  3. Climate Policy and Trade in Polluting Technologies By Ferguson, Shon; Heijmans, Roweno J.R.K.
  4. Forward Looking Exporters By Francois de Soyres; Erik Frohm; Emily Highkin; Carter Mix
  5. International Economic Sanctions and Third-Country Effects By Fabio Ghironi; Daisoon Kim; Galip Kemal Ozhan
  6. International Tax Spillovers and Tangible Investment, with Implications for the Global Minimum Tax By Mr. Michael Keen; Ms. Li Liu; Hayley Pallan
  7. New global development conditions of international economic relations: reforming directions By Pakhomov, Alexander (Пахомов, Александр); Bagdasaryan, Kniaz (Багдасарян, Княз)
  8. Time-varying exchange rate pass-through into terms of trade By Dainauskas, Justas
  9. Trade Liberalization versus Protectionism: Dynamic Welfare Asymmetries By B. Ravikumar; Ana Maria Santacreu; Michael Sposi
  10. Impact of trade and structural change on the sub-Saharan African economies By Paul I. Ko; Ryo Makioka; Karim Nchare
  11. Ripples into waves: trade networks, economic activity, and asset prices By Chang, Jeffery (Jinfan); Du, Huancheng; Lou, Dong; Polk, Christopher
  12. Nowcasting trade in value added indicators By Annabelle Mourougane; Polina Knutsson; Rodrigo Pazos; Julia Schmidt; Francesco Palermo
  13. Economywide impacts of expansion of maritime trade efficiencies in Senegal - A recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium approach By Amarendra Sahoo; Victor Nechifor; Emanuele Ferrari; Valeria Ferreira; Damit Serge Didier Amany
  14. A New Approach to Overcoming Zero Trade in Gravity Models to Avoid Indefinite Values in Linear Logarithmic Equations and Parameter Verification Using Machine Learning By Mikrajuddin Abdullah
  15. Globalization and Inequality in Latin America By Dix-Carneiro, Rafael; Kovak, Brian K.
  16. The macroeconomic effects of global supply chain reorientation By Clancy, Daragh; Valenta, Vilém; Smith, Donal
  17. Trading votes: what drives MEP support for trade liberalization? By Basedow, Robert; Hoerner, Julian
  18. Aid for Trade flows, Patent Rights Protection and Total Factor Productivity By Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm
  19. A heterogeneous-firm model of trade and growth with country-specific credit constraints By Ryoji Ohdoi; Kazuo Mino; Yunfang Hu
  20. On Trade Policy and Workers’ Transition between the Formal and Informal Sectors: An Application to the MENA Region in the Time of Covid-19 By Fida Karam; Chahir Zaki
  21. Export Product Quality and Inclusivity in Developing Countries By Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm
  22. Deindustrialization and Trade Openness: The Tunisian Case By Rania Mechergui; Rim Mouelhi
  23. Who Benefits From The Export-Import Bank Aid? By Efraim Benmelech; Joao Monteiro
  24. Assessment of migration potential from different countries of the world to Russia By Varshaver, Evgeny (Варшавер, Евгений); Rocheva, Anna (Рочева, Анна); Ivanova, Natalia (Иванова, Наталия)
  25. New challenges in international economics and finance By Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca; Prats, María A.

  1. By: Yasmine Kamal (Cairo University)
    Abstract: This study explains the export behavior of Egyptian firms under demand volatility in destination countries using detailed customs data and high-dimensional fixed effects. It finds that demand volatility negatively affects both intensive and extensive export margins. The effects are particularly evident for large firms that reduce their export sales (especially over time) to more volatile destinations/products and are therefore more likely to exit from exporting more volatile products and less (more) likely to enter (exit) more volatile destinations. These findings corroborate recent literature that emphasizes the greater elasticity of large firms to foreign demand shocks. They are also in line with risk aversion models in which the average risk premium increases with firm size. Given the disproportionate adverse impacts on large exporters, we find that higher demand volatility leads to lower aggregate exports, especially to geographically close countries with low trade costs. Accordingly, uncertainty in demand lessens the positive effect of lower trade barriers on exports.
    Date: 2023–03–20
  2. By: Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm
    Abstract: The Trade-Related Intellectual Property (TRIPS) Agreement of the World Trade Organization has granted major flexibilities to least developed countries (LDCs). One of these flexibilities is the exemption from the implementation of the majority of the provisions of this Agreement over a certain period (referred to as "TRIPS Waiver"), so as to help LDCs create a viable technological base. The present article has investigated whether the TRIPS Waiver was instrumental in expanding LDCs' technological base measured by their total factor productivity level. The analysis has used 14 LDCs (based on available data) and two different control groups, over the period from 1981 to 2020. It has revealed that the TRIPS Waiver helped LDCs expand their technological base, in particular for LDCs that had very weak technological bases. In addition, this positive technological base effect of the TRIPS Waiver was larger in LDCs that implemented weaker intellectual property laws, as well as those that endeavour to relatively diversify their export products, and improve the quality of export products in a context of a greater export product diversification.
    Keywords: Least developed countries, TRIPS Waiver, World Trade Organization
    JEL: F13 O34
    Date: 2023
  3. By: Ferguson, Shon (Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU)); Heijmans, Roweno J.R.K. (Department of Business and Management Science, NHH Norwegian School of Economics)
    Abstract: This study estimates the impact of carbon pricing on international trade in equipment used in the combustion of fossil fuels during the period 1995–2021. Using detailed data on bilateral trade combined with data on domestic carbon prices, we find that carbon pricing policies are associated with greater exports of this equipment. We provide a simple model of international trade in polluting technologies that can explain this outcome. Our results provide new evidence for this unexplored form of leakage due to more stringent climate policies.
    Keywords: Emissions pricing; Cap and trade; Carbon leakage; International trade in technologies
    JEL: F14 F18 Q37 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2023–08–14
  4. By: Francois de Soyres; Erik Frohm; Emily Highkin; Carter Mix
    Abstract: This paper studies the role of expectations in driving export adjustment. We assemble bilateral data on spot exchange rates, one year ahead exchange rate forecasts and HS2-product export data for 11 exporting countries and 64 destinations, covering the 2006–2014 period. Results from fixed effects regressions and an instrumental variables approach show that expectations of exchange rate changes are an important channel for export adjustment. A one percent expected exchange rate depreciation over the next year is associated with a 0.96 percent increase in the extensive margin (entry of new exporters) in the 2SLS regression, with statistically insignificant effects on total exports or the intensive margin. We provide intuition for these findings with a simple model with heterogeneous firms and sticky prices, and use our model to discuss the implications of anticipation for subsequent export growth and trade elasticity measurement.
    Keywords: exchange rates; heterogeneous firms; international trade
    JEL: F1
    Date: 2023–07–13
  5. By: Fabio Ghironi; Daisoon Kim; Galip Kemal Ozhan
    Abstract: This paper studies international trade and macroeconomic dynamics triggered by economic sanctions, and the associated welfare losses, in a calibrated, three-country model of the world economy. We assume that there are two production sectors in each country, and the sanctioned country has a comparative advantage in production of a commodity (for convenience, gas) needed to produce final, differentiated consumption goods. We consider three types of sanctions: sanctions on trade in final goods, financial sanctions, and gas trade sanctions. We calibrate the model to an aggregate of countries currently imposing sanctions on Russia (the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States), Russia, and an aggregate of third countries (China, India, and Turkey). We show that, instead of reflecting the success of sanctions, exchange rate movements reflect the type of sanctions and the direction of the resulting within-country sectoral reallocations. Our welfare analysis demonstrates that the sanctioned country’s welfare losses are significantly mitigated, and the sanctioning country’s losses are amplified, if the third country does not join the sanctions, but the third country benefits from not joining. These findings highlight the necessity, but also the challenge, of coordinating sanctions internationally.
    Keywords: Economic models; Exchange rates; International topics
    JEL: F31 F42 F51
    Date: 2023–08
  6. By: Mr. Michael Keen; Ms. Li Liu; Hayley Pallan
    Abstract: This paper articulates and, using newly-assembled data, explores how international taxation affects aggregate tangible cross-border investment. Spillovers from statutory tax rates abroad seem: As sizable as effects from the host’s rate; larger than previous consensus values (attributed to a systematic bias from FDI data); and consistent with ‘implicit’ profit shifting through real investment (rather than ‘paper’ profit shifting). Contrary to much policy discussion, the results also imply that: Host countries’ marginal effective tax rates have at best a weak effect on real investment; those elsewhere have none; and, applied to the prospective global minimum tax, inward tangible investment in most sample countries will increase.
    Keywords: Corporate Taxation; International Tax; Multinational Investment; Foreign Direct Investment
    Date: 2023–08–04
  7. By: Pakhomov, Alexander (Пахомов, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Bagdasaryan, Kniaz (Багдасарян, Княз) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The study analyzes the latest trends in the reform of international economic relations, especially global trade and capital flows worldwide. It also analyzes the opportunities and limitations of Russia’s participation in international economic reform processes in the interests of the national economy and foreign trade. The main purpose of the study is to identify emerging trends in global economy and international relations at the present stage and define the opportunities for Russia’s participation in the new processes. The main objectives of the study are: a) to identify the main factors and areas of transformation of international economic relations; b) to determine possible directions of reforming various sectors of the global economy; c) to study potential shifts in the balance of power and interests in the global economy at different levels - i.e. country, region and global; d) to identify opportunities and limitations for the Russian Federation to participate in the processes of transformation of international economic relations with regard to national interests; e) to reveal the main directions of Russia’s interaction with various groups of countries and international organizations under the new conditions. Special attention is given to the reform of global value chains, transformation of world trade and shifts in the balance of power in international economic relations. Finally, the study provides an expert assessment of the problem of maintaining the market status of the Russian economy and practical recommendations for a possible solution of this issue. is aimed at solving this problem.
    Keywords: international economic relations, globalization, global supply chains, transformation, multipolarity.
    Date: 2021–10–19
  8. By: Dainauskas, Justas
    Abstract: The U.S. invoices nearly all of its imports and exports in U.S. dollars. The U.S. terms of trade should therefore be “neutral” to movements in the U.S. dollar against other currencies. However, I find that the U.S. dollar pass-through into the U.S. terms of trade is: (i) on average positive and significant (31%); and (ii) it exhibits persistent time variation in the range of 10–60% over the period of 1990–2018. I argue that this can be explained by the changing primary commodity share in U.S. imports and the fact that commodity prices are invoiced, but not always “sticky”, in U.S. dollar terms. Without primary commodities, such as petroleum and crude oil, pass-through roughly halves and becomes relatively stable over time. Unlike trade in manufactured goods and services (i.e. non-commodities), trade in commodities thus preserves the conventional link between the exchange rate, terms of trade, and the current account.
    Keywords: commodity prices; current account; dominant currency paradigm; exchange rate pass-through; state-space model; terms of trade
    JEL: J1 F3 G3
    Date: 2023–10–01
  9. By: B. Ravikumar (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Ana Maria Santacreu (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Michael Sposi (Southern Methodist University)
    Abstract: We investigate whether the losses from an increase in trade costs (protectionism) are equal to the gains from a symmetric decrease in trade costs (liberalization). We incorporate dynamics through capital accumulation into a standard Armington trade model and show that the welfare changes are asymmetric: Losses from protectionism are smaller than the gains from liberalization. In contrast, standard static trade models imply that the losses equal the gains. The intuition for asymmetry in our model is that, following protectionism, the economy can coast off of previously accumulated capital stock, so higher trade costs do not imply large losses immediately. We develop an accounting device to decompose the source of welfare asymmetries into three time-varying contributions: share of income allocated to consumption, measured productivity, and capital stock. Asymmetry in capital accumulation is the largest contributing factor, and measured productivity is the smallest.
    Keywords: Dynamic gains, Asymmetry, Capital, Protectionism, Liberalization
    JEL: F13 F11 E22
    Date: 2023–08
  10. By: Paul I. Ko; Ryo Makioka; Karim Nchare
    Abstract: Sub-Saharan African economies have experienced accelerated economic growth in the past two decades. In this paper we study the impact of trade-induced structural change on employment and value-added shares in sub-Saharan African economies. We find that sub-Saharan African economies have increasingly become net importers of manufacturing goods. Similar to other countries, an increase in manufacturing imports negatively impacts manufacturing employment shares. In contrast, an increase in exports positively impacts agricultural employment shares.
    Keywords: Trade, Structural change, Sub-Saharan Africa
    Date: 2023
  11. By: Chang, Jeffery (Jinfan); Du, Huancheng; Lou, Dong; Polk, Christopher
    Abstract: We exploit information in sovereign CDS spreads and the international trade network to provide causal evidence of the propagation of global economic shocks. We show that trade links are an important source of shock transmission using the natural experiments of the Japanese tsunami and the COVID-19 lockdown in China. We then confirm more general and gradual information flows along the trade network by showing extensive country-level credit/equity cross-sectional return predictability. News about country fundamentals flows primarily from importers to exporters, depends on both direct and indirect links in the trade network, and is magnified by the exporting country's financial vulnerability.
    Keywords: sovereign CDS; return predictability; trade networks; limited attention; information aggregation; 71;733;004; Paul Woolley Center
    JEL: G12 G15 F40
    Date: 2022–07–01
  12. By: Annabelle Mourougane; Polina Knutsson; Rodrigo Pazos; Julia Schmidt; Francesco Palermo
    Abstract: Trade in value added (TiVA) indicators are increasingly used to monitor countries’ integration into global supply chains. However, they are published with a significant lag - often two or three years - which reduces their relevance for monitoring recent economic developments. This paper aims to provide more timely insights into the international fragmentation of production by exploring new ways of nowcasting five TiVA indicators for the years 2021 and 2022 covering a panel of 41 economies at the economy-wide level and for 24 industry sectors. The analysis relies on a range of models, including Gradient boosted trees (GBM), and other machine-learning techniques, in a panel setting, uses a wide range of explanatory variables capturing domestic business cycles and global economic developments and corrects for publication lags to produce nowcasts in quasi-real time conditions. Resulting nowcasting algorithms significantly improve compared to the benchmark model and exhibit relatively low prediction errors at a one- and two-year horizon, although model performance varies across countries and sectors.
    Keywords: Global value chains, Machine learning, Nowcasting
    JEL: C4 C53 F17
    Date: 2023–09–06
  13. By: Amarendra Sahoo (European Commission - JRC); Victor Nechifor (European Commission - JRC); Emanuele Ferrari (European Commission - JRC); Valeria Ferreira; Damit Serge Didier Amany (West African Development Bank (BOAD))
    Abstract: Senegal's strategic location along the Trans-Saharan trade route play a crucial role in the country's trade industry. About half of the country’s demand for food crops is imported. However, the port capacity is increasingly facing pressures due to its infrastructural constraints leading to hidden iceberg type of costs. Infrastructural investment can potentially raise the port capacity, hence increasing the efficiencies of trade transactions by doing away with the existing iceberg costs. The study applies a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model to evaluate potential outcomes of increased efficiencies in maritime trade on Senegal’s economic performances and wellbeing of Senegal. The findings indicate that increasing the efficiencies of maritime trade would result in lower costs for imported food products and inputs to the domestic activities, enhancing country’s competitiveness in the export markets that would boost domestic output, particularly of cash crops, industrial food and chemical products. Increased availability of food supply with higher purchasing power of the households would support the country’s food security. Improved maritime efficiencies would improve country’s economic growth and overall welfare with urban households benefiting the most. There would be significant reduction in poverty incidence at the national level, with larger impacts on rural areas. However, impacts on extreme poor are substantially lower than poverty incidence.
    Keywords: Recursive Dynamic CGE Model, Senegal, Maritime Trade, Efficiencies, Iceberg Costs, Economic Performance, Poverty
    Date: 2023–08
  14. By: Mikrajuddin Abdullah
    Abstract: The presence of a high number of zero flow trades continues to provide a challenge in identifying gravity parameters to explain international trade using the gravity model. Linear regression with a logarithmic linear equation encounters an indefinite value on the logarithmic trade. Although several approaches to solving this problem have been proposed, the majority of them are no longer based on linear regression, making the process of finding solutions more complex. In this work, we suggest a two-step technique for determining the gravity parameters: first, perform linear regression locally to establish a dummy value to substitute trade flow zero, and then estimating the gravity parameters. Iterative techniques are used to determine the optimum parameters. Machine learning is used to test the estimated parameters by analyzing their position in the cluster. We calculated international trade figures for 2004, 2009, 2014, and 2019. We just examine the classic gravity equation and discover that the powers of GDP and distance are in the same cluster and are both worth roughly one. The strategy presented here can be used to solve other problems involving log-linear regression.
    Date: 2023–08
  15. By: Dix-Carneiro, Rafael (Duke University); Kovak, Brian K. (Carnegie Mellon University)
    Abstract: We survey the recent literature studying the effects of globalization on inequality in Latin America. Our focus is on research emerging from the late 2000s onward, with an emphasis on empirical work considering new mechanisms, studying new dimensions of inequality, and developing new methodologies to capture the many facets of globalization's relationship to inequality. After summarizing both design-based and quantitative work in this area, we propose directions for future work. Our overarching recommendation is that researchers develop unifying frameworks to help synthesize the results of individual studies that focus on distinct aspects of globalization's relationship to inequality.
    Keywords: globalization, inequality, Latin America
    JEL: F14 F62 F66 J0 O10
    Date: 2023–08
  16. By: Clancy, Daragh (Central Bank of Ireland and University of Limerick); Valenta, Vilém (European Central Bank); Smith, Donal (Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development)
    Abstract: Policymakers around the world are (re)considering the trade-off between efficiency and resilience inherent in global supply chains. Many have introduced legislation seeking to encourage the local production of key inputs to reduce risks from excessive dependencies on external suppliers. We analyse the macroeconomic effects of localisation policies, such as reshoring and friend-shoring production, using a novel non-tariff mechanism in a global dynamic general equilibrium model. We find that localisation policies imply transition costs and their long-term impact on aggregate domestic output are generally negative. The size (and sign) of the impact depends on whether these policies are implemented unilaterally or as part of a global shift and, most importantly, the extent to which they lead to a reduction in domestic competition and productivity. Untargeted localisation policies are also unlikely to achieve their goal of improving macroeconomic resilience, as sensitivity to regional shocks increases, while resilience to global shocks improves only marginally. Based on these findings, we provide some tentative recommendations for policymakers considering implementing a localisation agenda.
    Keywords: Euro area; Friendshoring; Reshoring; Strategic autonomy.
    JEL: F13 F41 F45 F62
    Date: 2023–06
  17. By: Basedow, Robert; Hoerner, Julian
    Abstract: Which factors drive support of Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) for trade liberalisation? The literature suggests that economic factors, ideology, and politicization shape MEP voting behaviour. Drawing on a new dataset encompassing all trade-related MEP votes (2009-2019), this study offers a quantitative assessment of the determinants of MEP support for trade liberalisation. It finds that ideological factors have the strongest and most persistent effect on MEP support for trade liberalisation. The economic competitiveness of MEPs’ home regions, in turn, has only a limited effect. Politicization, lastly, has an unclear effect on its own and mostly influences MEP voting behaviour through interactions with ideological and economic factors. The study offers the first comprehensive assessment of the determinants of MEP voting on trade liberalisation and contributes to political economy research on electoral institutions and trade, the European Parliament’s role in trade policy and the effects of politicization on policy-making.
    Keywords: trade; European Parliament; voting; politicization; T&F deal
    JEL: L81
    Date: 2023–08–11
  18. By: Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm
    Abstract: This study has examined both the effect of Aid for Trade (AfT) flows on the total factor productivity (TFP) level, and the extent to which this effect depends on countries' strength of protection of patent rights. The analysis has used the fixed effects estimator the Method of Moments Quantile Regression approach over a panel dataset of 59 countries and the period from 2002 to 2019. It has established several findings. AfT flows are instrumental in improving productivity in recipient countries, with the largest effect arising from AfT flows for productive capacities. The positive productivity effect of total AfT flows is larger in countries with higher productivity levels. On average over the full sample, total AfT flows exert a larger positive effect on the TFP level in countries that have face higher trade costs, lower innovative output and weaker patent rights protection. Interestingly, increasing the real per capita research and development (R&D) expenditure and concurrently strengthening patent rights laws (to protect the returns on R&D expenditure) result in a larger positive effect of total AfT flows on productivity. In addition, countries with low productivity levels (i.e., those located in lower quantiles) and that increase R&D expenditure in the context of stronger patent rights laws, experience a positive and significant effect of total AfT flows (in particular AfT for productive capacities) on productivity. The magnitude of this positive effect is larger, the lower the quantile of the TFP distribution in which a country is located. These findings have important policy implications.
    Keywords: Aid for Trade flows, Intellectual Property Rights, R&D Expenditure, Total Factor Productivity
    JEL: F35 O34 O47
    Date: 2023
  19. By: Ryoji Ohdoi (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University); Kazuo Mino (Kyoto Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University); Yunfang Hu (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)
    Abstract: This study constructs a two-country endogenous growth model with heterogeneous firms and asymmetric countries, where the asymmetry lies in the degree of financial frictions. The tradable intermediate goods sector consists of heterogeneous firms and requires specific goods for entry. These goods are produced by heterogeneous entrepreneurs facing credit constraints due to financial frictions. Using this framework, we derive the following results analytically. First, a permanent credit crunch in one country facilitates the exit of intermediate goods firms in that country; meanwhile, it decreases the profitability of exports of the other country’s intermediate goods firms, causing exporters to switch to selling their goods domestically. Second, under no international lending and borrowing, the credit crunch reduces the growth rates of both countries not only in the long run but also during the transition to a new balanced growth path. We also compare the long-run effects under such a financial autarky and financial integration.
    Keywords: Banks; Endogenous growth; Heterogeneous firms; Asymmetric countries; Financial frictions; Country-specific credit crunch
    JEL: F12 F43 O16 O41
    Date: 2023–08
  20. By: Fida Karam (Gulf University for Science and Technology); Chahir Zaki (Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Cairo university, Egypt)
    Abstract: This paper looks at the transition of workers in the MENA region between formal and informal jobs during the COVID-19 pandemic, and investigates whether trade policy could be used as a measure to enhance the transition of workers from the informal to the formal sector. We use the Combined COVID-19 MENA Monitor Household Survey constructed by the Economic Research Forum for 5 MENA countries and 11 sectors. We obtain the following results. First, fewer trade restrictions are associated with an increased probability for the worker to become formal and this effect is more pronounced post-pandemic relative to before February 2020. Second, fewer trade restrictions are linked to an increase in the probability of becoming formal for blue collar workers only, with an insignificant effect on white collar workers. Third, fewer trade restrictions are associated with an increase in the probability of men to become formal, with an insignificant effect on women. Last but not least, the effect of trade policy on job formality depends on the sectoral occupation of the individual with the effect being more pronounced in agriculture and manufacturing relative to services sectors.
    Date: 2023–03–20
  21. By: Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm
    Abstract: The present study has examined the effect of export product quality improvement on inclusivity in developing countries. Inclusivity is measured by three factors considered simultaneously, namely an increase in the real per capita income, a reduction in within-country income inequality, and poverty reduction. The analysis covers 101 developing countries over the period from 1980 to 2014, and uses primarily the two-step system Generalized Method of Moments estimator. It shows that export product quality improvement results in greater inclusivity, especially in countries that face high levels of economic growth volatility, including large magnitudes of external shocks. Likewise, export product quality improvement leads to a greater inclusivity in countries that experience high levels of export product concentration. The analysis sheds light on the positive contribution of export product quality improvement to inclusivity in developing countries.
    Keywords: Export product quality, Inclusivity
    JEL: D63 F14 O11
    Date: 2023
  22. By: Rania Mechergui (University of La Manouba); Rim Mouelhi (University of La Manouba)
    Abstract: Although industrialization has long been considered crucial for economic development and growth, the economic landscape of many developed and developing countries has experienced a huge decline in the weight of the industry and manufacturing sectors over the last decades. This paper aims to shed some light on the phenomenon of deindustrialization – defined as a sustained decline in the share of industry, especially manufacturing, gross domestic product, and employment – in Tunisia. We use an autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach (ARDL) and data from 1998 to 2017 to investigate the impact of different factors (such as trade openness, economic development, competitiveness, productivity growth, FDI inflows, investment, innovation, and human capital) on the process of industrialization/deindustrialization. The descriptive analysis shows that the Tunisian economy started to deindustrialize recently at a low level of GDP per capita, which is a sign of premature deindustrialization. Furthermore, the empirical results reveal that the main factor behind deindustrialization in Tunisia is a lack of competitiveness; however, trade openness contributes positively to the process of industrialization.
    Date: 2023–07–20
  23. By: Efraim Benmelech; Joao Monteiro
    Abstract: We study the effectiveness of government aid to exporters by exploring an exogenous shock that affected the ability of the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) to provide aid to U.S. exporters through loan guarantees to importers. We focus on Boeing, the largest individual recipient of aid. We find that Boeing sales declined only modestly – despite Boeing’s significant reliance on EXIM for export credit. Moreover, we find that this decline is driven by financially constrained airlines or by airlines operating in countries with underdeveloped financial systems. We show that airlines in developed countries were easily able to substitute EXIM guaranteed loans for private credit and thus could still purchase Boeing aircraft despite the EXIM shock. Our results are consistent with the view that government-sponsored export credit is mostly relevant for importers in countries with underdeveloped financial systems, which represent a relatively small share of total EXIM aid.
    JEL: F14 F34 G28 G31 L93
    Date: 2023–08
  24. By: Varshaver, Evgeny (Варшавер, Евгений) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Rocheva, Anna (Рочева, Анна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ivanova, Natalia (Иванова, Наталия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The paper presents the results of a study conducted with the purpose of assessing various countries of the world in terms of migration potential to Russia, defined as the prospect of the emergence or increase in the volume of migration to Russia as a result of the purposeful efforts of the Russian state and society. The text presents a theoretical model, methodology and calculations of three main indicators: the general migration potential of the country, the migration potential to Russia and the migration potential to Russia, taking into account the population of the respective country. The formulas developed for calculating the migration potential take into account a variety of factors: demographic, geographic, economic, political, etc. For each indicator, calculations were made based on the available statistics for 129 countries. The results of the calculations allow singling out the countries that are most interesting from the point of view of migration potential to Russia – these are, first of all, the countries of Africa and the former USSR. The final part of the text discusses the limitations of the presented study and prospects for further work.
    Date: 2021–11–08
  25. By: Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca; Prats, María A.
    Abstract: This Special Issue brings together 13 papers that examine a variety of central topics in the field of international economics and finance. These papers were presented at the 23rd Conference on International Economics held in Málaga (Spain) on 16th–17th June 2022. The conference was organised by the Spanish Association of International Economics and Finance (AEEFI) and the University of Málaga. The selected papers make up an interesting and revealing set of information to study the new challenges of the international economics and finance in a context especially marked by the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the climate change, the challenge posed by the COVID-19 crisis and the instability unleashed after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. From different perspectives, the papers analyse how events that have particularly affected the evolution of the world economy have substantially altered the rules of international trade, foreign direct investment, as well as monetary, fiscal or sectoral policy. The conference included two keynote lectures by Per Krusell (Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University) and Fabio Canova (Norwegian Business School and Budapest School for Central Banking Studies), as well as 97 selected contributions.
    Keywords: international economics; international finance
    JEL: F3 G3 J1 M40
    Date: 2023–08–03

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