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on International Trade |
| By: | Sanyal, Anirban |
| Abstract: | Trade policy uncertainty impacts firm's decisions to enter export markets and make new investments. I extend the trade policy uncertainty literature in a multi-country trade model to evaluate the uncertainty effect on global trade flows. The model introduces two sources of uncertainty; namely a policy change probability and tariff size uncertainty. Using these two sources of uncertainty, I argue that the trade policy uncertainty moderates global trade flows and increases domestic price level due to lack of certainty in price distributions. The framework can be generalized to other uncertainties in trade partners. Finally, the model calibration demonstrates that a moderation of trade flows during the recent trade war period, can be explained by trade policy uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | trade policy uncertainty, trade flows, sectoral heterogeneity |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:272825&r=int |
| By: | Bruno Casella; Maria Borga; Mr. Konstantin Wacker |
| Abstract: | In a complex global production landscape, the quest for measures of economic activity by multinational enterprises (MNEs) has become more pressing. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) statistics, which capture financing aspects of MNEs, have often been used as a proxy for multinational production given their wide availability and cross-country comparability, but concerns that multinational production occurs in different countries than where financial positions are recorded call this practice into question. This paper revisits the main objections to the use of FDI as a proxy for multinational production, explores counterarguments, and provides guidance on the use of FDI statistics to measure multinational production. |
| Keywords: | FDI; multinational production; multinational enterprises; foreign affiliates |
| Date: | 2023–06–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/113&r=int |
| By: | Roche Rodriguez, Jaime Alfonso (World Bank); Robertson, Raymond (Texas A&M University); Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys (World Bank); Zárate, Daniela Ruiz (Bank of Mexico) |
| Abstract: | Morocco's trade liberalization policies have promoted economic progress over the past two decades. However, effects on Morocco's local labor market outcomes vary. By combining three complementary approaches and modeling techniques, this paper estimates: (i) how trade agreements have increased trade flows, (ii) the relationship between trade exposure and mixed local labor market outcomes, and (iii) the relationship between firm employment and exports. Our results show that trade policy has increased trade flows, but this has led to mixed results for workers: increased trade has decreased informality but has failed to improve female labor force participation (FLFP). This appears to be due to a shift from female labor-intensive industries, such as apparel and textile sectors, to capital-intensive sectors that are predominantly male-intensive. Our firm level analysis confirms these results by showing that increase in employment from exports has occurred mainly in male, labor-intensive sectors. |
| Keywords: | trade policy, trade flows, labor market outcomes, firm dynamics |
| JEL: | F13 F16 O14 O19 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16213&r=int |
| By: | Koo, Kyong Hyun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 본 연구에서는 FTA 등 양자·복수국 간 무역협정을 통한 무역·노동의 연계, IPEF를 통해 미국이 시도하고 있는 새로운 무역·노동 연계 모델, 국내법 차원의 무역·노동 연계에 관한 글로벌 규범 현황을 살펴본다. 또한 앞으로의 FTA 협상과 IPEF에서의 노동기준, 주요 교역국의 노동·공급망 연계 규제로 인한 대응방향에 관해 정책 시사점을 제시한다. Through the evolution of international trade agreements, the conceptual boundaries of ‘trade’ have expanded beyond the simple movement of goods across national borders to a matter of common economic governance among countries. In particular labor standards have long been a controversial issue in international trade. The linkage between trade and labor standards is expected to emerge as an important trade issue in the future. Internationally recognized labor standards such as those adopted by the International Labor Organization (ILO) have been incorporated into FTAs, and the level of protection of labour rights has been enhanced significantly with respect to both substantive and procedural FTA provisions. Further, there have been a couple of cases where a Party’s failure of FTA labour obligations was referred to judicial review under FTA dispute settlement procedures. This study examines the trade-labour linkage in three main aspects. Firstly, the most traditional approach of linking trade and labour standard has been to improve labour standards in trading partners through bilateral and plurilateral trade agreements including FTAs. This trend is in line with the recent increase in litigation between countries under a FTA dispute settlement procedure. Since 2018, there have been a total of 18 cases where Parties invoked FTA dispute settlement provisions, four of which were labour- or environment-related disputes. It is also worth noting that two out of these four cases were complaints filed against Korea. The main components of FTA labour standards include (ⅰ) incorporation of ILO international labour standards (ⅱ) non-derogation (ⅲ) effective implementation of labour obligations (ⅳ) labour cooperation, and (ⅴ) corporate social responsibility (CSR). More recent FTAs also cover issues such as gender equality, protection of migrant workers' labour rights, and import prohibition on products made by forced labour. With respect to enforceability and dispute settlement, one should pay particular attention to the Facility-Specific Rapid-Response Labor Mechanism or “RRM”, which was introduced by the United States for the first time in USMCA. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | labor standards. Free Trade Agreement. International Labor Organization. Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. Forced labor; the link between trade and labor; and the current status of global norms |
| Date: | 2022–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwp:2022_009&r=int |
| By: | IBRAHIMA AL ASSANE BA (UM5 - Université mohamed 5, Rabat); Said Toufik (UM5 - Université mohamed 5, Rabat) |
| Abstract: | This article proposes a study of the determinants of intra-ECOWAS trade at the dawn of African continental integration. The gravity model and panel data are used to analyze the impacts of commercial environment, trade facilitation, logistics environment, customs efficiency, and institutional opacity on intra-community trade. The results indicate that (i) the positive influence of the free trade agreement on intra-community exports is mitigated by the inadequacy of the commercial environment. (ii) Structural reforms of around 5% could stimulate intra-community and transnational trade by more than 25% and 134.68%, respectively. (iii) The impacts of sub-environments vary depending on destinations, and the institutional environment is a key reform axis to stimulate international exports, while the customs environment is a priority for intra-community trade |
| Abstract: | Cet article propose une étude des déterminants des échanges intra-CEDEAO à l'aube del'intégration continentale africaine. Nous utilisons le modèle de gravité et des données de panel pour analyser les impacts de l'environnement commercial, de la facilitation des échanges, de la l'environnement logistique, de l'efficacité des organismes douaniers et de l'opacité institutionnelle sur les échanges intra-communautaires. Les résultats indiquent que (i) l'influence positive de l'accord de libres échanges, sur les exportations intracommunautaires, est atténuée par l'inopportunité de l'environnement commercial. (ii) Des réformes structurelles de l'ordre de 5% pourraient stimuler les échanges intra-communautaires et transnationaux de plus de 25% et 134, 68%, respectivement. (iii) Les impacts des sous-environnements varient en fonction des destinations, et l'environnement institutionnel est un axe de réforme clé pour stimuler les exportations internationales, tandis que l'environnement douanier est prioritaire pour les échanges intra-communautaires. |
| Keywords: | Déterminants des échanges, intra-CEDEAO, intégration continentale africaine, ZLECAF, données de panel, environnement commercial, facilitation des échanges, environnement logistique, environnement institutionnel, environnement douanier. Communauté économique et régionale, modèle de gravité |
| Date: | 2023–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04103936&r=int |
| By: | Görg, Holger |
| Abstract: | When it comes to attracting foreign direct investment, Africa as a whole may be described as some-thing like the "forgotten continent". In a global comparison, the continent is fairly insignificant as a destination for the investment of foreign companies. This paper makes this point using aggregate data on world-wide FDI stocks. It then tries to explain why this is the case. It first reviews the important drivers of FDI that have been identified in the literature, and then compares the performance of African countries in terms of those determinants with that of other potential host countries. |
| Keywords: | Foreign direct investment, Sub-Sahara Africa, Drivers, Performance |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kcgpps:9&r=int |
| By: | Evan Winter; Anupam Shah; Ujjwal Gupta; Anshul Kumar; Deepayan Mohanty; Juan Carlos Uribe; Aishwary Gupta; Mini P. Thomas |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to investigate a more efficient cross-border payment and document handling process for the export of Indian goods to Brazil. The paper is structured into two sections: first, to explain the problems unique to the India-Brazil international trade corridor by highlighting the obstacles of compliance, speed, and payments; and second, to propose a digital solution for India-brazil trade utilizing Supernets, focusing on the use case of Indian exports. The solution assumes that stakeholders will be onboarded as permissioned actors (i.e. nodes) on a Polygon Supernet. By engaging trade and banking stakeholders, we ensure that the digital solution results in export benefits for Indian exporters, and a lawful channel to receive hard currency payments. The involvement of Brazilian and Indian banks ensures that Letter of Credit (LC) processing time and document handling occur at the speed of blockchain technology. The ultimate goal is to achieve faster settlement and negotiation period while maintaining a regulatory-compliant outcome, so that the end result is faster and easier, yet otherwise identical to the real-world process in terms of export benefits and compliance. |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2306.00439&r=int |
| By: | Di Iasio, Valentina (University of Southampton); Wahba, Jackline (University of Southampton) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of the 2016 UK referendum and expecting Brexit on migration flows and net migration in the UK. We employ a Difference-in-Differences strategy and compare EU migration to non-EU migration before and immediately after the UK referendum of June 2016. We also investigate the potential secondary effects of the referendum on non-EU migrants by using different methodologies and various robustness checks. Our results show that after the referendum (i) migration inflows from the EU declined, (ii) emigration of EU migrants increased and (iii) net migration flows from EU countries to the UK fell. Our results are not driven by the potential spillover impacts on non-EU migrant workers. Overall, the findings show that migration in the UK declined after the Brexit referendum, even before any policy change. |
| Keywords: | UK migration, EU migration, Brexit |
| JEL: | F22 J61 J48 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16156&r=int |
| By: | Kim, Dongsoo (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Three decades have passed since South Korea and Vietnam initiated diplomatic relations. The two countries have recently elevated their relationship to a “comprehensive and strategic partnership.” Vietnam is Korea’s fourth-largest trading partner, and cumulatively the third-largest recipient of Korean foreign direct investment (FDI). Korea has a vital interest in seeing Vietnam become a stable host to supply chains. Vietnam, too, needs Korea in order to boost its own economic and industrial growth. Aggregate statistics show that bilateral trade between Korea and Vietnam features an astounding variety of goods and services, but much of this trade consists of transactions between Korean companies’ affiliates in Vietnam and their parent companies in Korea. This can be interpreted to suggest that the trade between the two countries makes only a trivial contribution to the overall Vietnamese economy; Korean companies may be investing more and more in smartphone production, consumer electronics, auto manufacturing, distribution, and finance in Vietnam, but Vietnamese businesses’ participation in Korean companies’ supply chains remains quite limited. Korea needs to reevaluate and readjust its strategic partnership with Vietnam from a long-term perspective. Specifically, Korea needs to recognize Vietnam as an essential partner, and discuss with the Vietnamese government how to increase Vietnamese businesses’ participation in Korean companies’ supply chains. More cooperation is needed to gradually transfer technologies and human resource capabilities from Korea to Vietnam. The Korean government needs to provide strategic and consistent objectives to ensure coherence between multiple and scattered partnership projects involving Vietnam, basing any planning any future undertakings on a concrete vision. |
| Keywords: | Korea-Vietnam relationship; trade; foreign direct investment; FDI; trade policy; supply chains; localization; manufacturing; industrial policy |
| JEL: | D25 F13 L63 O20 O21 O24 O25 |
| Date: | 2022–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:2022_025&r=int |
| By: | Gustavo de Souza; Naiyuan Hu; Haishi Li; Yuan Mei |
| Abstract: | Trade sanctions are a common instrument of diplomatic retaliation. To guide current and future policy, we ask: What is the most cost-efficient way to impose trade sanctions against Russia? We build a quantitative model of international trade with input-output connections. Sanctioning countries choose import tariffs to simultaneously maximize their income and minimize Russia’s income, with different weights placed on these objectives. We find, first, that for countries with low willingness to pay for sanctions against Russia, the most cost-efficient sanction is a uniform tariff on all Russian products of about 20%. Second, if countries that are willing to pay at least US$0.70 for each US$1 drop in Russian welfare, an embargo on Russia’s mining and energy products – with tariffs above 50% on other products – is the most cost-efficient policy. Finally, if countries target politically relevant sectors, an embargo on Russia’s mining and energy sector is the cost-efficient policy, even when there is low willingness to pay for sanctions. |
| Keywords: | trade sanctions, tariff, tariff competition |
| JEL: | F13 O24 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10477&r=int |
| By: | Raphael Auer; Bruce Iwadate; Andreas Schrimpf; Alexander F. Wagner; Raphael A. Auer |
| Abstract: | Although real integration conceptually plays an important role for the comovement of international equity markets, documenting this link empirically has proven challenging. We construct a new dataset of theory-guided, relevant measures of bilateral trade in final and intermediate goods and services. With these measures, we provide evidence of a strong link between changes in international trade – in particular global value chains – and equity market comovement. These results suggest that supply chain disruptions and reshoring, for instance due to political tensions, war, and the COVID-19 crisis, might affect the interconnections between stock markets via rippling through the global production network. |
| Keywords: | financial integration, global value chains, international asset pricing, international trade, real integration, spillovers, stock market comovement, supply chains |
| JEL: | F10 F36 F65 G10 G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10492&r=int |
| By: | Marc Auboin; Eddy Bekkers; Dario De Quarti |
| Abstract: | In this paper we integrate the costs of trade finance in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate the trade and output effects of counterfactual policy experiments on costs of and access to trade finance. The costs of financing international trade consist of two components: the financial costs and the costs associated with the risk of goods not being delivered, considering risk aversion of traders. These costs are determined for four ways to finance international trade (cash-in-advance, trade loans, letters of credit, and exports financed with internal working capital). Trade finance costs are a weighted average of the costs under the four different ways of financing. The framework is applied to trade of four ECOWAS countries employing data collected on financial costs, costs of risk and trade finance instrument shares through a comprehensive bank survey in these countries complemented with data from the literature. Counterfactual experiments on increases in the availability of letters of credit and trade loans and the costs of these instruments show that raising the shares and costs to African averages would increase trade of the four ECOWAS countries by about 11%. The framework is generic and can be applied to other countries. |
| Keywords: | trade credit, international trade, financial institutions, general equilibrium simulations |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F39 G21 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10445&r=int |
| By: | Warren Maruyama (Hogan Lovells); Alan Wm. Wolff (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | For any member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) not making alternative arrangements, enforceability of the rules of the global trading system, a distinguishing feature of the WTO, ceased to exist on December 11, 2019, because the United States blocked appointments to the Appellate Body of the WTO dispute settlement mechanism. A major obstacle to the United States accepting any resolution of this impasse--thus permitting dispute settlement to once again be binding on all WTO members--is settling the issue of whether claims of national security to legitimize trade measures are reviewable. This is a red line for the United States, which argues this claim is nonreviewable. In the emerging area of great power competition, the United States is unlikely to accept a return to fully effective WTO dispute settlement absent a compromise that finds determinations of national security nonjusticiable. This paper offers a compromise: There would be no adjudication of whether a trade measure was justified under the WTO's national security exception, but those WTO members adversely affected would have an immediate right to rebalance trade concessions themselves by imposing retaliatory trade measures against the WTO member invoking the exception. |
| Keywords: | national security, WTO, dispute settlement, GATT Article XXI, Appellate Body |
| JEL: | K33 K41 K49 N40 N70 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp23-2&r=int |
| By: | Nadia Accoto (Bank of Italy); Stefano Federico (Bank of Italy); Giacomo Oddo (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the international trade in services related to intangible assets and intellectual property products (IPP) and explores to what extent they might be used as a channel to shift the profits of multinational firms to tax havens. Using survey data on Italian firms, we first provide a geographical and sectoral analysis of Italy's trade in IPP services. We then estimate the amount of profit shifted abroad by foreign-owned firms in our sample, applying the methodology initially put forward by Tørsløv et al. (2018) at various levels of aggregation. Finally, we look for a correlation at the firm level between estimated shifted profits and imports of IPP services. We find that, while the overall correlation is very low, there is a small cluster of firms displaying a positive correlation between these two variables. |
| Keywords: | trade in services, intellectual property products, MNEs, profit shifting |
| JEL: | F14 F23 H26 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1414_23&r=int |
| By: | Appelbaum, Elie; Melatos, Mark |
| Abstract: | We investigate preferential trade agreement (PTA) formation when risk-averse countries face demand uncertainty and hence, have an insurance motive for pursuing trade integration. In this environment, when deciding which type of PTA - if any - they wish to form, countries seek to maximise their net welfare; that is, their expected utility minus a risk premium. The desire for insurance influences not just whether a particular PTA forms, but also the preferred depth of integration. We analyze the insurance implications of free trade agreements (FTAs), customs unions (CUs), and countries choosing to stand alone. We further distinguish between shallow CUs and deep CUs; in the former, members maximise the sum of their individual net welfare, while in the latter, they maximise the net value of the sum of their individual expected welfare. We show that differences in country risk attitudes, the levels of risk they face, and the degree to which these risks are correlated with each other (each and together) influence the formation and design of TAs. When countries' demands are uncorrelated, they form a deep CU if their levels of risk aversion are sufficiently different. If, however, their risk attitudes are similar, countries opt for shallower trade integration - either a shallow CU or a FTA - if they face low levels of uncertainty, and choose to stand alone if one country faces a sufficiently high level of uncertainty. When countries' demands are correlated, they tend to form a deep CU if their demands are strongly negatively correlated, a FTA if their demands are strongly positively correlated and a shallow CU when their demands are weakly correlated. Intuitively, differences in their degree of risk aversion act as an additional source of comparative advantage. Deeper integration- particularly via a CU - permits less risk-averse members to essentially export their relative partiality for risk to more risk-averse partners, thereby effectively providing the latter with insurance. |
| Keywords: | Trade Agreement, Free Trade Area, Customs Union, Insurance, Uncertainty, Risk Premium. |
| JEL: | D81 F12 F13 F15 |
| Date: | 2022–11–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:117533&r=int |
| By: | Lee, Jukwan (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Cho, Moonhee (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kang, Jungu (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Ji Hyeon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 본 연구에서는 환경상품·서비스 시장 개방에 대한 국제사회의 논의 동향을 살펴보았으며, 주요국을 중심으로 환경상품과 서비스 시장의 규모와 개방 현황을 검토하였다. 이를 바탕으로 향후 환경상품·서비스 시장 개방이 우리 경제에 미칠 영향을 살펴봄으로써 우리나라의 대내외 정책 방향을 제시하였다. The international community is striving to establish norms concerning the environmental market. It endeavors to secure a free and fair trade order, and contribute to achieving carbon neutrality and sustainability. In this study, we first examine related discussions, then review the current status and market openness of environmental goods and services. Analyzing the effect of market liberalization on the Korean economy, we conclude with policy implications which could contribute to the Korean government’s policy making in the subject. Chapter 2 examines each country and international organizations’ definition on the environmental industry, goods and services, then it introduces the formation of related trade norms. Environmental goods are generally defined as products contributing to environmental protection and sustainability, and based on the degree of eco-friendliness throughout the product’s life-cycle. However, what constitutes environmental goods is a controversial issue among countries which depends on political and economic interests. As for environmental services, the UN, the OECD, and the EU define them as both including environmental protection and resource management, whereas the WTO focuses on pollution management. Multilateral organizations such as the WTO, the OECD, the APEC and the UNCTAD have made great efforts to establish the scope of environmental good and services and related trade norms, but these ultimately came to a standstill. Current discussions at the Trade and Environmental Sustainability Structured Discussions (TESSD) involving the liberalization of environmental goods and services, as well as bilateral and regional talks such as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), are focusing on efforts to form related norms, toward which promising results are being seen.(the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | Free Trade; Environmental Policy; Environmental Products; Environmental Services; Trade Policy; Market Openness; Trade and Environment |
| Date: | 2022–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2022_011&r=int |
| By: | Piotr Lewandowski; Karol Madoń; Deborah Winkler |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the relationship between global value chain (GVC) participation, worker-level routine task intensity, and wage inequality within countries. Using unique survey data from 38 countries, we find that higher GVC participation is associated with more routine-intensive work, especially among workers in offshorable occupations. This effect is particularly strong in industry and in countries at lower development levels. As higher routine task intensity links with to wages, this indirectly widens within-country wage inequality. However, GVC participation directly contributes to reduced wage inequality, except in the richest countries. Overall, GVC participation is negatively associated with wage inequality in most low- and middle-income countries that receive offshored jobs, and positively in high-income countries that offshore jobs. |
| Keywords: | routine task intensity, global value chains, globalisation, cross-country division of work, wage inequality |
| JEL: | J21 J24 J31 F66 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:wpaper:wp052023&r=int |
| By: | Nirmalya Syam; Shirin Syed |
| Abstract: | Least developed countries (LDCs) benefit from specific flexibilities under the World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS), including an extended transition period for implementation of the agreement. These flexibilities cease to apply when countries graduate from the LDC category. Cambodia, Djibouti, Senegal and Zambia are among the countries that have recently started the graduation process, which consists of a series of stages over several years and involves analysis of quantitative and qualitative information, including the expected impacts of graduation. In that context, this study analyses the policy and developmental implications for these countries of no longer benefitting from the LDC-specific provisions of the TRIPS Agreement. The study finds that the countries under analysis do not make full use of the LDC-specific flexibilities, with exceptions particularly in the area of pharmaceuticals in Cambodia. After graduation, countries would still be able to apply a number of flexibilities and policy space available under TRIPS that are not exclusive to LDCs, but this would require legislative action and capacity-building. For the most part, however, these countries lack the necessary conditions to be able to benefit from stronger standards of IP protection that are absent in the LDCs. The paper concludes with recommendations for countries as they prepare for graduation. |
| Keywords: | Least Developed Countries, World Trade Organization, Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) |
| JEL: | F13 F68 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:une:cpaper:057&r=int |
| By: | Brasili, Andrea; Harasztosi, Peter |
| Abstract: | Using firm level survey data we draw a portrait of incidence of recent trade related shocks, such as disruptions in logistics or access to materials, and undertaken responses in the economies of the EU. The paper focuses on firm heterogeneity in explaining the willingness to respond to these shocks and in explaining the type of response taken: diversification across trade partners or focusing on domestic markets and suppliers. We find that younger, larger, more productive firms are more likely to respond actively to trade shocks and disruptions, especially with diversification. At the same time, less productive, less innovative firms and firms using imported inputs, but that do not trade themselves are discouraged from engaging directly in international trade. |
| Keywords: | international trade, firm heterogeneity, disruptions |
| JEL: | D21 F1 L23 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:eibwps:202302&r=int |
| By: | Gervais, Antoine |
| Abstract: | In seminal studies, Feenstra (1994) and Broda and Weinstein (2006) develop an econometric method to quantify the welfare gains from trade associated with increases in product varieties. While it is the most widely respected structural approach, it relies on a contentious assumption: the orthogonality of import demand and supply residuals. This paper demonstrates theoretically that including additional controls for exporter-year factors increases the likelihood that the orthogonality condition is satisfied in practice. In particular, the extended model adresses the potential correlation between product quality (demand shocks) and exporter characteristics (supply shocks). The paper then implements the benchmark and the extended model in international trade data. Three main results emerge from the analysis. First, F-tests support the extended model over the constraint (benchmark) model. Second, the mean and standard deviation of the estimated elasticities are both smaller in the extended model compared to the bench- mark model. Third, the correlation between the two sets of estimates is positive (as expected) but small, at 0.33. Overall, these empirical results suggest that it is important to control for exporter-year factors when estimating import-demand elasticities. |
| Keywords: | Export supply, Import demand, International trade, Structural estimation, Trade elasticities. |
| JEL: | F1 |
| Date: | 2023–03–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:117421&r=int |
| By: | Anwarul Hoda (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)) |
| Abstract: | This study is about the alternative of open plurilateral agreements (OPAs) that has given hope of a solution to the problem of process in negotiations by sidestepping the requirement for a consensus. The paper gives a detailed account of the use of OPAs in the GATT 1947 era and of its revival under the WTO Agreement.It describes the various areas of the WTO Agreement in which OPAs can be successfully employed to make progress in liberalisation as well as in rule-making. It also contains a description of the way in which the results of plurilateral agreements can be assimilated in the architecture of the WTO Agreement. |
| Keywords: | International Trade Agreement, GATT, WTO |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:wpaper:415&r=int |
| By: | Wilson, William W.; Bullock, David W.; Lakkakula, Prithviraj |
| Abstract: | The Russian invasion of Ukraine disrupted the grain flows from that region and worldwide. These changes are critical due to the war’s influence on logistical costs, routes and capacities. As a result of the invasion, Ukraine has evolved from having some of the lowest logistical costs in the world to having the highest logistical cost. Logistics are critical for international competitiveness in commodities, and due to the invasion, these functions have been severely affected. Essential features for a logistical competition include internal logistical functions and costs, quality, port capacity and ocean shipping costs, each compounded by seasonal demands. This paper’s purpose is to analyze the effects of the Russian invasion on the logistical functions and the costs for corn exports from Ukraine and its competitors using an optimized Monte Carlo simulation model. The findings indicate that before the invasion, Ukraine had logistical advantages for shipments to the European Union (EU) and was highly competitive in Indonesia and China; the United States had a logistical cost advantage over Ukraine to serve China, South Korea (from the U.S. Gulf) and Japan (from the Pacific Northwest (PNW)). The changes due to the invasion are substantial. Most important is the radical increase in shipping costs from Ukraine, reduced port capacity and export supplies. However, concurrent with the invasion were changes in some critical trade and marketing policies, thus influencing the international competition for corn. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Marketing |
| Date: | 2023–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nddaae:336712&r=int |
| By: | Chorzempa, Martin; von Daniels, Laura |
| Abstract: | In response to Russia's attack on Ukraine, the United States and 37 countries formed a coalition in February 2022 to implement a barrage of export controls outside of any formal arrangement. By contrast, US controls on China are often unilateral, such as its October 2022 measures on semiconductors that went ahead without explicit consent, let alone a commitment by its allies to join. But to deny China access to 'dual-use' technology, unilateral export controls will not be effective. As European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced during her visit to the White House, the European Union (EU) wants to renew its export controls on dual-use products and new technologies and to coordinate them more closely with US measures. That means that member states will need to develop a common position on the scope of their export controls - including the extent of their alignment with the United States - as well as ways forward with multilateral controls of dual-use goods, given the freeze of the Wassenaar Arrangement due to Russia's actions. |
| Keywords: | Russia's attack on Ukraine, China, Huawei, export controls, European Commission, "dual-use" technology, Wassenaar Arrangement |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:202023&r=int |
| By: | Xing Shi (School of Economics, Hefei University of Technology); Yujie Zeng (School of Economics, Hefei University of Technology); Yanrui Wu (Business School, The University of Western Australia); Shuai Wang (School of Economics, Hefei University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the reverse green innovation spillovers of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) in Chinese multinational companies and how environmental regulation stringency in host countries moderates the relationship between OFDI and green innovation. The empirical analysis is based on an integrated dataset of publicly listed firms from 2008 to 2018. The findings demonstrate a significantly positive relationship between OFDI and the green innovation performance of multinational companies. It is also shown that environmental regulation stringency in host countries positively moderates the relationship between OFDI and green innovation. Further analysis reveals the variation of the findings across multinational companies in host countries at different development stages, with different ownership and in industries with different pollution intensities. The observations in this paper imply that the institutional environment of investment destinations matters for reverse technology spillovers, particularly reverse green technology spillovers from OFDI. |
| Keywords: | Outward foreign direct investment, Green innovation, Environmental regulation stringency, Chinese multinational companies |
| JEL: | F21 O30 Q55 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:23-05&r=int |
| By: | Tabuchi, Takatoshi; Wang, Congcong; Zhu, Xiwei |
| Abstract: | We present a model of Chinese growth in a two-country economy with the manufacturing and natural resource sectors to analyze the impacts of the reform and opening-up policy, which promotes free trade and technological progress, on the net capital flows, net export, and social welfare. We show that manufacturing capital in China initially decreased before increasing. This corresponds with the fact that China was a net importer of manufactured goods initially and became a net exporter recently. These results are consistent with the data obtained after the reform and opening-up policy in 1978. |
| Keywords: | trade liberalization; technological progress; the reform and opening-up policy; deindustrialization; home market effect. |
| JEL: | F12 O11 R12 |
| Date: | 2023–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:117634&r=int |
| By: | Kwon, Hyunho (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Lee, Joo Hyoung (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Minjung (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kwak, Dongchul (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | WTO에서 전자상거래 논의가 시작된 이후 국제사회에서는 디지털무역에 대한 정립을 다양한 각도에서 시도하고자 노력하였다. 그럼에도 불구하고 아직까지 국제사회에서 다자관계에 적용될 통일된 규범이나 시스템은 마련되지 못하였으며, 대부분은 양자 또는 일부 국가들 사이에서 체결되는 협정들로 이를 규율하고 있는 상황이다. 이러한 국제사회의 현실에서 새로운 도전이 될 디지털무역 분야를 규율하는 규범체제는 어떤 형식으로 체결될 것이며, 어떤 내용을 포함하게 될 것인가? 이 연구는 지금까지 체결된 주요 디지털통상협정의 형식과 내용을 분석함으로써 우리나라 디지털통상협정의 표준 모델을 구축하기 위해 고려해야 할 요소들을 제안하고자 한다. The purpose of this research is to provide necessary information to prepare a basic model law for the digital trade agreement that Korea will conclude. And more, this study analyzes the “forms and contents” of several digital trade agreements concluded so far, and presents practical considerations that need to be reviewed from a legal and policy perspective when Korea has a chance to conclude digital trade agreements in the future. To this end, Chapter 2 presents specific grounds to establish the Korean digital trade agreement model at the formal or structural level. This is a formal and structural approach to consider for setting the model of digital trade agreements. To solve this problem, this study conducts a detailed review in two main aspects. First of all, the implications of the multilateral discussions on the digital trade agreement will be analyzed. Through this study, it is possible to examine the various forms or structures of digital trade agreements that appear in multilateral discussions themselves. On the other hand, what needs to be addressed in the process of forming a more realistic model is the formal aspect of digital trade agreements through bilateral, regional and plurilateral agreements or multilateral agreements. This approach will be the most realistic solution for Korea or most countries. In particular, there are various types for regulating digital trade through bilateral, regional and plurilateral agreements or multilateral agreements, such as those attached as part of FTAs or RTAs, and those concluded as independent trade agreements regardless of FTAs such as DEPA or KSDPA. Therefore, Chapter 2 presents various trade legal and policy implications, such as the meaning and characteristics of digital trade agreements concluded in different forms, and problems according to the legal perspectives of the agreement itself, which helps Korea set a model agreement.(the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | E-trade; e-commerce; digital trade agreement; standard model; digital model norms; digital agreement; digital economy |
| Date: | 2023–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2022_029&r=int |
| By: | Andrés César (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET); Matías Ciaschi (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET); Guillermo Falcone (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET); Guido Neidhöfer (ZEW Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether the impact of trade shocks on employment and wages persists across generations. Using survey data with retrospective information on parental employment and instrumental variables, we study the effect of increased Chinese import competition in Brazilian industries on individuals with differently exposed fathers. Results show that several years after the shock, children of more exposed fathers have lower education and earnings, lower chances of formal jobs, and are more likely to rely on social assistance. These effects are substantially stronger for children from disadvantaged background, indicating that the shock had a negative impact on intergenerational mobility. |
| JEL: | I24 J62 F14 F16 J23 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0316&r=int |
| By: | Rinki Ito |
| Abstract: | This study examines whether the structure of global value chains (GVCs) affects international spillovers of research and development (R&D). Although the presence of ``hub'' countries in GVCs has been confirmed by previous studies, the role of these hub countries in the diffusion of the technology has not been analyzed. Using a sample of 21 countries and 14 manufacturing industries during the period 1995-2007, I explore the role of hubs as the mediator of knowledge by classifying countries and industries based on a ``centrality'' measure. I find that R&D spillovers from exporters with High centrality are the largest, suggesting that hub countries play an important role in both gathering and diffusing knowledge. I also find that countries with Middle centrality are getting important in the diffusion of knowledge. Finally, positive spillover effects from own are observed only in the G5 countries. |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2306.06680&r=int |
| By: | Kimberly A. Clausing (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Catherine Wolfram (University of California, Berkeley) |
| Abstract: | Jurisdictions adopt heterogeneous climate policies that vary in terms of both ambition and policy approach, with some jurisdictions pricing carbon and others subsidizing clean production. We distinguish two types of policy spillovers associated with diverse policy approaches to climate change. First, when countries have different levels of climate ambition, free riders will benefit at the expense of more committed countries. Second, when countries pursue different approaches, carbon-intensive producers within cost-imposing jurisdictions will be at a relative competitive disadvantage compared with producers in subsidizing jurisdictions. Carbon border adjustments and climate clubs are attempts to respond to these policy spillovers, but when countries have divergent policy approaches, one policy alone will not be able to address both types of spillovers. The authors also consider the policy dynamics that result from carbon border adjustments and climate clubs; both have the potential to encourage upward harmonization of climate policy, but they come with risks. Further, the pressures of international competition in the presence of divergent climate policy approaches may result in subsidy races, which come with their own potential risks and benefits. |
| Keywords: | carbon border adjustments, climate clubs, Pigovian taxes and subsidies, international competitiveness, trade and environment |
| JEL: | F18 H23 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp23-3&r=int |
| By: | Stéphane Auray; Michael B. Devereux; Aurélien Eyquem |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that the outcome of trade wars for tariffs and welfare will be affected by the monetary policy regime. The key message is that trade policy interacts with monetary policy in a way that magnifies the welfare costs of discretionary monetary policy in an international setting. If countries follow monetary policies of flexible inflation targeting, trade wars are relatively mild, with low equilibrium tariffs and small welfare costs. Discretionary monetary policies imply much higher tariffs, high inflation rates, and substantially larger welfare costs. We quantify the effects of a global trade war among major economies using estimates of trade elasticities, economic size, net foreign assets and trade openness. We find large welfare benefits of an inflation targeting monetary policy for all countries. |
| JEL: | F30 F40 F41 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31302&r=int |
| By: | Teresa C. Fort |
| Abstract: | This paper documents how US firms organize goods production across firm and country boundaries. Most US firms that perform physical transformation tasks in-house using foreign manufacturing plants in 2007 also own US manufacturing plants; moreover manufacturing comprises their main domestic activity. By contrast, “factoryless goods producers” outsource all physical transformation tasks to arm's-length contractors, focusing their in-house efforts on design and marketing. This distinct firm type is missing from standard analyses of manufacturing, growing in importance, and increasingly reliant on foreign suppliers. Physical transformation “within-the-firm” thus coincides with substantial physical transformation “within-the-country, ” whereas its performance “outside-the-firm” often also implies “outside-the-country.” Despite these differences, factoryless goods producers and firms with foreign and domestic manufacturing plants both employ relatively high shares of US knowledge workers. These patterns call for new models and data to capture the potential for foreign production to support domestic innovation, which US firms leverage around the world. |
| JEL: | F1 L2 L6 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31319&r=int |
| By: | Nam, Sanguk (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | The reorganization of global value chains and surging producer demand for alternatives to China are making Indonesia an attractive hub of global production for electronics companies. The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) recently signed by South Korea and Indonesia have has created a favorable business environment for the two economies, and Korean electronics firms are expected to increase their investments in Indonesia. Although Korean electronics companies have been producing consumer electronics like DVD players and set-top boxes in Indonesia since the 1990s, interest and investment in the country dwindled over the years as Internet protocol television (IPTV) and over-the-top (OTT) media services grew in popularity. But the Indonesian government’s requirement stipulating that electronics manufacturers must source certain parts locally (TKDN) was extended to smartphones and TVs in the 2010s. This reignited a drive by Korean electronics companies to increase their investments and ramp up production in Indonesia. In this paper, we demonstrate why Korean electronics companies should utilize more local Indonesian suppliers, and argue that the Korean government should provide Korean companies and investors with a comprehensive strategy and guidelines for investment, helping and guiding Korean companies and investors toward achieving mutually beneficial partnership with their Indonesian counterparts. |
| Keywords: | Indonesia; manufacturing; electronics; electronics manufacturing; Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement; supply chains; foreign direct investment; FDI; parts localization; industrial policy; trade policy; win-win cooperation |
| JEL: | D25 F13 L63 O20 O21 O24 O25 |
| Date: | 2023–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:2023_004&r=int |
| By: | Arpita Mukherjee (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Eshana Mukherjee (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Nida Rahman (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)) |
| Abstract: | This study is about the alternative of open plurilateral agreements (OPAs) that has given hope of a solution to the problem of process in negotiations by sidestepping the requirement for a consensus. The paper gives a detailed account of the use of OPAs in the GATT 1947 era and of its revival under the WTO Agreement.It describes the various areas of the WTO Agreement in which OPAs can be successfully employed to make progress in liberalisation as well as in rule-making. It also contains a description of the way in which the results of plurilateral agreements can be assimilated in the architecture of the WTO Agreement. |
| Keywords: | World Trade Organisation (WTO), special economic zones (SEZs), international trade, gems and jewellery, subsidies |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:wpaper:414&r=int |
| By: | Uehara, Thiago Kanashiro |
| Abstract: | Attempts to reform trade to meet ecological, cultural and social goals alongside economic imperatives have not caught up with the expansion of trade. This paper proposes ways to meet this challenge and designs an original framework – the Planetary Welcare framework – for the analyses of production and consumption systems. The framework, which adopts an interdisciplinary approach to development, equity, sustainability and planetary health, brings together five interlinked principles on well-being, consumption, accountability beyond borders, reconciliation between international and place-based policymaking, and the environment. The paper first develops the framework and then applies it to the high-level strategies of the World Trade Organization and the International Fair Trade Charter, highlighting their differences and challenges. The paper demonstrates how the Planetary Welcare framework provides a relatively simple yet comprehensive set of principles to explore how production and consumption systems, including trade agreements, could contribute to achieving the highest attainable standard of health, well-being, and equity worldwide. |
| Date: | 2023–04–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2f9da&r=int |
| By: | Alessandro Ferrari; Sébastien Laffitte; Mathieu Parenti; Farid Toubal |
| Abstract: | International tax rules are commonly viewed as obsolete as multinational corporations exploit loopholes to move their profits to tax havens. This paper uncovers how international tax reforms can curb profit shifting and impact real income and welfare across nations. We introduce profit shifting and corporate taxation in a quantitative model of multinational production. The model delivers "triangle identities" through which we recover bilateral profit-shifting flows. Our estimates of both tax-base and profit-shifting elasticities, together with profit-shifting frictions, govern how taxes shape the geography of production and profits. Our model accommodates a rich set of corporate taxation scenarios. A global minimum tax would be beneficial for welfare since it would increase the public good provision and encourage countries to raise their statutory corporate tax rates. Instead, a border-adjustment tax that eliminates profit shifting could result in welfare losses. |
| Keywords: | Profit Shifting;Tax Avoidance;Tax Havens;International Tax Reforms;Minimum taxation;DBCFT;Multinational firms |
| JEL: | F23 H25 H26 H32 H73 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2023-15&r=int |
| By: | ’t Sas-Rolfes, Michael; Gooden, Jennifer Lynn |
| Abstract: | 1. Among factors that threaten wild populations of African megafauna, wildlife trade has gained prominence as a global policy issue, with concerted international campaigns aiming to influence the trade of species such as elephants, rhinos, and lions. Trade policy is strongly contested, confounding attempts to develop coherent approaches across jurisdictions and through international mechanisms such as CITES. This undermines conservation efforts. Understanding the drivers of such conflict may help to address this problem. 2. Scholars of political science increasingly recognize the power of ideas as drivers within policy processes. Guided by this literature, we developed an analytical framework and conducted a thematic analysis to examine the ideas driving wildlife trade policy conflict. Our nested case study approach examined debates over trade policy toward African elephants, rhinos, and lions, at two levels: the international policy arena of CITES and within a single country, South Africa. Informed by earlier literature, we tracked the evolution of international trade policy debates over a four-year period (2016–2019) and analysed submissions to a national policy review process in South Africa that took place during 2020. 3. During the study period, state and non-state actors contributed to vigorous trade policy debates within seven key thematic issues across the case study species. Arguments were driven by both cognitive ideas, which specify cause-and-effect relationships, and normative ideas, which are values-based and especially salient elements of anti-trade stances. 4. Fusing these cognitive and normative ideational elements, we identified three distinct over-arching narratives relating to wildlife trade policy. These three narratives align with broader environmental policy and political narratives and elucidate inherent tensions within the CITES arena. They also reveal differing ethical interpretations and perceptions of risk, precaution, and the role of property rights. 5. Policy implications: Wildlife trade policy conflict is driven at least in part by competing ideological visions, which may be entrenched by the CITES Appendix listing system. The structural role of CITES in perpetuating this polarization—and the consequences thereof—warrants further research. |
| Date: | 2023–06–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:bzse5&r=int |
| By: | Felipe Benguria; Alvaro Garcia-Marin; Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr |
| Abstract: | Most domestic and international firm-to-firm transactions rely on trade credit, where sellers grant buyers time to pay the invoice after delivery. Exploiting Chilean and Colombian transaction-level trade data, this paper documents new facts about trade credit use: trade credit use increases with firm-to-firm relationship length, an effect that is stronger for destination (source) countries with weaker (stronger) contract enforcement and for trade in differentiated goods. The paper develops a model featuring enforcement frictions, learning, and a financing cost advantage of trade credit that can rationalize these patterns. Initially, as there is uncertainty about the reliability of the trading partner, payment risk is a key factor limiting the use of trade credit. Through learning, this uncertainty resolves within a relationship over time. For older relationships, the payment choice is, therefore, only determined by the financing cost advantage of trade credit, and all relationships rely on trade credit in the long run. The paper thereby suggests a new benefit of long-term trade relationships: the ability to save on financing costs through the use of trade credit. |
| Keywords: | trade credit, relationships, learning, financing costs, risk |
| JEL: | F12 F14 G21 G32 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10465&r=int |
| By: | Petković, Saša; Rastoka, Jelica; Radicic, Dragana |
| Abstract: | The relationship between firms’ exports and increases in productivity is generally regarded as positive. While the causal effects of process innovation are straightforward and positive, the effect of product innovation on productivity is ambiguous. However, there is a lack of empirical evidence on a joint effect that innovation and exports have on firms’ productivity. In our attempt to fill this gap, we explore individual and joint effects of innovation and exports on productivity by employing cross-sectional firm-level data. We use the sixth wave of the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey (BEEPS VI: 2018–2020) conducted by the EBRD and the World Bank. Using a stratified random sampling, the data was collected from interviews with representatives of randomly chosen firms from 32 countries. The overall results suggest that exporting firms are more productive than non-exporters, while the impact of innovation is more heterogeneous. Whereas EU and high-income countries reap the productivity benefits, this effect is absent in other regions and countries with medium and low-income levels. Finally, our results indicate the absence of a joint effect of innovation and exports on productivity, across different geographical regions and countries of different income levels. |
| Keywords: | exports; innovation; labor productivity; learning-by-exporting (LBE) |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2023–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:119329&r=int |
| By: | Rodrigo Adão; Arnaud Costinot; Dave Donaldson |
| Abstract: | The primary motivation behind quantitative modeling in international trade and many other fields is to shed light on the economic consequences of policy changes. To help assess and potentially strengthen the credibility of such quantitative predictions we introduce an IV-based goodness-of-fit measure that provides the basis for testing causal predictions in arbitrary general-equilibrium environments as well as for estimating the average misspecification in these predictions. As an illustration of how to use our IV-based goodness-of-fit measure in practice, we revisit the welfare consequences of Trump's trade war predicted by Fajgelbaum, Goldberg, Kennedy and Khandelwal (2020). |
| JEL: | C52 C68 E17 F10 R10 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31321&r=int |
| By: | David Gomtsyan (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | Ramadan has attracted negative publicity and criticism in Western countries with large Muslim immigrant populations. Are these attitudes justified? Does the behavior of Muslim immigrants negatively affect host populations during this period? We investigate one important dimension of immigrant behavior that is a source of concern: criminal activity. Using Swiss data, we document that during Ramadan, crimes committed by Muslim migrants decline by 11%. We provide evidence that changes in the beliefs and values of immigrants play an essential role in explaining the overall result. |
| Abstract: | Le Ramadan a suscité de nombreuses critiques et fait l'objet d'une publicité négative dans les pays occidentaux comptant d'importantes populations d'immigrés musulmans. Ces attitudes sont-elles justifiées ? Le comportement des immigrants musulmans a-t-il un effet négatif sur les populations d'accueil pendant cette période ? Nous étudions une dimension essentielle du comportement des immigrés, source de préoccupations : l'activité criminelle. D'après des données recueillies en Suisse, il apparaît que, pendant le Ramadan, les crimes commis par les migrants musulmans diminuent de 11%. Notre étude apporte la preuve que ce sont les changements dans les croyances et valeurs des immigrants qui expliquent ce résultat global. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Crime, Islam, Ramadan, Religious practice, Criminalité, Pratique religieuse |
| Date: | 2023–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04101309&r=int |
| By: | Choi, Jangho (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Dawool (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Rhee, Jung-Kyun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Choi, Yoojeong (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 본 연구는 김정은 위원장 집권 10년을 정권 승계기(2011년 12월~2012년), 집권 1기(2013~17년), 집권 2기(2018~21년)로 구분하여 각 집권 시기별로 북한이 추진하였던 대외정책의 특징을 규명하고, 이를 바탕으로 북한경제의 변화 방향을 전망하는 것이 목적이다. 이를 위해 북한 대외 환경 변화와 북한의 정책적인 대응, 대외무역, 양자관계(중국, 러시아, 미국, 일본), 다자관계(UN 기구, 다자협의체)를 검토하였다. 연구결과 ① 김정은 위원장은 북한식 방식(생산수단의 사회적 소유, 국영기업 집단경영)으로 경제성장의 기반을 만드는 체제 내 개혁을 시도하였으나(2013~17), ② 핵무기 개발을 매개로 대외여건이 악화(2016~현재)되고, ③ 예상치 못했던 하노이 회담 결렬(2019.2)과 코로나19 확산(2020.1)으로 대외협력을 중단(2020~22)하면서, ④ 매우 낮은 성과만을 거둔 채 심각한 경제난에 직면한 것으로 평가할 수 있다. ①과 ②는 집권 1기에 나타난 특징이고, ③과 ④는 집권 2기에 나타난 특징으로 요약할 수 있다. The purpose of this research is to investigate the characteristics of North Korea’s foreign policy that it pursued by dividing Chairman Kim Jeong-un’s reign into three segments, Ascension to Power (2011 Dec-2012), First Regime (2013-2017) and Second Regime (2018-2021), and based on these findings, predict the direction of North Korea’s changing economy. For this, we reviewed the changes in North Korea’s surrounding foreign landscape its policy responses, foreign trade, bilateral relations (China, Russia, the United States, Japan) and multilateral relations (UN Agencies, Multilateral Councils). In chapter two, we introduced the changes that North Korea faced during the ten years of Chairman Kim Jeong-un’s regime with thesurrounding foreign landscape and its domestic policy responses. During the First Regime, we reviewed (1) the May 24th Measures and the strained inter-Korean relations causing North Korea’s economy to be increasingly dependent on China (2) Deterioration of North Korea-China relations after Jang Song-thaek's execution, (3) China’s tightening of anthracite (hard coal) environmental regulations, (4) UN Security Council’s tougher sanctions on North Korea, (5) implementation of economic reforms such as North Korean-style economic management for domestic economicpolicy, (6) designation of Special Economic Zone to stimulate foreign trade and foreign investment, (7) real estate development to build high-rise apartments and amusement facilities, (8) declaration of completing the simultaneous economic and nuclear development after North Korea’s nuclear test.During the Second Regime, we discussed the changes in both domestic and foreign landscape, in addition to North Korea’s policies, (9) UN Security Council’s fully-fledged implementation of sanctions on North Korea, (10) support from the international community for the Korean peninsula to show mood of conciliation, (11) The Hanoi Summit ending in failure (12) borders closed due to COVID-19, for domestic policy, (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | 북한경제; 경제관계; North Korean Economy; Economic Relations |
| Date: | 2022–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2022_012&r=int |
| By: | Cha’Ngom, Narcisse (LISER); Deuster, Christoph (European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC)); Docquier, Frédéric (LISER); Machado, Joël (LISER) |
| Abstract: | International migration is a selective process that induces ambiguous effects on human capital and economic development in countries of origin. We establish the theoretical micro-foundations of the relationship between selective emigration and human capital accumulation in a multi-country context. We then embed this migration-education nexus into a development accounting framework to quantify the effects of migration on development and inequality. We find that selective emigration stimulates human capital accumulation and the income of those remaining behind in a majority of countries, in particular in the least developed ones. The magnitude of the effect varies according to the level of development, the dyadic structure of migration costs, and the education policy. Emigration significantly reduces cross-country income inequality and the proportion of the world population living in extreme poverty. |
| Keywords: | human capital, migration, selection, brain drain, brain gain, global inequality |
| JEL: | J61 O15 E24 J24 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16222&r=int |
| By: | Paravisini, Daniel; Rappoport, Veronica; Schnabl, Philipp |
| Abstract: | We develop a novel approach for measuring bank specialization using granular data on borrower activities and apply it to Peruvian exporters and their banks. We find that borrowers seek credit from banks that specialize in their export destinations, both when expanding exports and when exporting to new countries. Firms experiencing country-specific export demand shocks adjust borrowing disproportionately from specialized banks. Specialized bank credit supply shocks affect exports disproportionately to countries of specialization. Our results demonstrate that firm credit demand is bank- and activity-specific, which reduces banking competition and affects the transmission and amplification of shocks through the banking sector |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2023–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:119458&r=int |
| By: | Olimpia Cutinelli Rendina (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the relationship between competition and firms' political influence. I use the China shock identification strategy to assess the impact of rising imports over the last two decades on US corporate lobbying. The empirical results are the following i) the increase in foreign competition has brought firms to increase their lobbying effort by approximately 35 percent per four-year period, ii) results are heterogeneous and the increase is focused on low productivity firms, iii) this increase does not target trade policies specifically but rather a variety of topics contributing to firms' competitiveness. I comment two mechanisms: First, firms for which innovation is too expensive naturally increase their lobbying effort in proportion to the threat of competition, and second differentiation (though innovation) and exit concentrate the lobbying effort on fewer firms, helping to decrease free-riding. |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-03970033&r=int |
| By: | Park, Joungho (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kang, Boogyun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Hyun, Seung-soo (Korea Institute for National Unification); Jeh, Sung Hoon (Hankuk University of Foreign Studies) |
| Abstract: | 이 보고서는 미·중·러 전략경쟁의 본격화 및 갈등의 심화 속에서 러·중 간의 전략적 관계 발전에 대한 종합적인 연구 작업으로 수행되었다. 새로운 국제질서의 형성 과정에서 러시아의 대중국 전략의 기본 방향과 의미, 분야별(정치, 외교, 안보, 군사, 경제, 사회, 문화) 협력의 세부 내용과 주요 특징을 분석하였다. 특히 이 연구는 러시아의 시각과 입장에서 러ㆍ중 간의 주요 분야별 협력 방향과 수준에 대한 종합적 평가를 토대로 한국에 유용한 정책적 시사점을 도출하고자 했다. This study comprehensively examines the development of Russia’sstrategic relationship with China amid intensifying strategic competition among the United States, China, and Russia. Specifically, we analyze the basic meaning and direction of Russia’s strategy toward China in the process of shaping a new global order, and the keyfeatures and characteristics of cooperation between the two countries in a wide range of fields spanning politics, diplomacy, security, military, economy, society, and culture. Accordingly, this research seeks to derive useful policy implications for Korea based on evaluation of the direction and level of Russia-China cooperation from the Russian perspective.This study consists of four major chapters. Chapter 2 examines the background and strategic significance of Russia’s political, diplomatic, and security relations with China. The deterioration of US relations with China and Russia, which is currently progressing at the global level, is acting as a decisive factor pushing Russia and China closer to each other. In order to grasp the dynamics of US- China-Russia relations and Russia’s perception of the international order, we seek theoretical and historical approaches to the strategic trianglerelationship, while examining the possible formation of a new type of triangle relationship. Based on this, the chapter describes Russia’s perception of China and its policy direction, as well as the evaluation and prospects of Russia-China relations. Chapter 3 analyzes the background and strategic significance ofRussia’s economic, trade, and industrial relations with China. First, Russia’s perception of economic security and the background of deepening economic relations with China are comprehensively identified. In particular, we examine the opportunities and constraints associated with Russia-China cooperation in the fields of advanced technology, energy, and finance, which are key strategic areas for strengthening Russia’s economic security in the face of intenseWestern sanctions against its economy.(the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | 경제관계; 경제안보; economic relations; security |
| Date: | 2022–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2022_014&r=int |
| By: | Akin A. Cilekoglu (University of Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I develop a method to estimate the effect of firm behavior on labor market monopsony power. Using China’s accession to WTO for the identification, I employ the proposed empirical framework to analyse the impact of Spanish firms’ exports on their labor market monopsony power. The findings suggest that higher exports raised monopsony power of firms in labor markets between 1996 and 2007. After 2001, more intensely exporting firms reduced their wages by 36-45 percentage points and paid their employees around 39-49 percent of their marginal revenue product. Aligned with increased monopsony power, exporting firms experienced a decline labor productivity and labor share while they employed more low-skilled workers and temporary contracts. |
| Keywords: | Labor market monopsony, Firm behavior, Exports, Trade JEL classification: J42, D22, F16, F14, J21 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:202304&r=int |
| By: | Lorenzo Bretscher (University of Lausanne; Swiss Finance Institute, and CEPR); Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)); Simon Scheidegger (University of Lausanne) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of Ricardian business cycles. Our model is Ricardian because countries (or, equivalently, regions) trade to take advantage of their comparative advantages. Their relative efficiencies, however, change over time stochastically. Similarly, country-specific shocks to demand, supply, and investment efficiency induce countries to engage in intra- and intertemporal substitutions in non-durable consumption, investment, services, and trade, generating business cycles. Finally, all agents have rational expectations about the stochastic components of the model. We solve the model globally using deep neural networks and calibrate it to the U.S., Europe, and China. Our quantitative results highlight the role of trading costs in shaping the responses of the economy to different shocks. |
| Keywords: | International Trade, Business Cycles, General Equilibrium, Comparative Advantage, Deep Learning |
| JEL: | C45 C63 F10 F40 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2343&r=int |
| By: | Marcel Adenäuer; Clara Frezal; Thomas Chatzopoulos |
| Abstract: | Extreme weather events can disrupt agricultural markets, but agricultural trade can help address subsequent food security concerns. Using the Aglink-Cosimo model, this stochastic scenario analysis sheds light on the complex relationships between trade and food security in an environment where extreme weather events create uncertainty. The analysis suggests that trade integration makes countries less vulnerable to negative yield shocks by mitigating the risk of extreme food prices and by stabilising food availability. Although no model can capture the complex process and consequences of opening this sector to trade, it is clear that trade integration needs to be part of a wider coherent policy package to improve food security. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Food security, Partial equilibrium modelling, Resilience, Trade integration |
| JEL: | Q17 Q18 Q54 Q56 C54 |
| Date: | 2023–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:agraaa:198-en&r=int |
| By: | Kimberly A. Clausing; Catherine Wolfram |
| Abstract: | Jurisdictions adopt heterogeneous climate policies that vary both in terms of ambition and in terms of policy approach, with some jurisdictions pricing carbon and others subsidizing clean production. We distinguish two types of policy spillovers associated with diverse policy approaches to climate change. First, when countries have different levels of climate ambition, free-riders will benefit at the expense of more committed countries. Second, when countries pursue different approaches, carbon-intensive producers within cost-imposing jurisdictions will be at a relative competitive disadvantage compared with producers in subsidizing jurisdictions. Carbon border adjustments and climate clubs are attempts to respond to these policy spillovers, but when countries have divergent policy approaches, one policy alone will not be able to address both types of spillovers. We also consider the policy dynamics that result from carbon border adjustments and climate clubs; both have the potential to encourage upward harmonization of climate policy, but they come with risks. Further, the pressures of international competition in the presence of divergent climate policy approaches may result in subsidy races, which come with their own potential risks and benefits. |
| JEL: | F18 H23 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31310&r=int |
| By: | Narcisse Cha'Ngom; Christoph Deuster; Frédéric Docquier; Joël Machado |
| Abstract: | International migration is a selective process that induces ambiguous effects on human capital and economic development in countries of origin. We establish the theoretical micro-foundations of the relationship between selective emigration and human capital accumulation in a multi-country context. We then embed this migration-education nexus into a development accounting framework to quantify the effects of migration on development and inequality. We find that selective emigration stimulates human capital accumulation and the income of those remaining behind in a majority of countries, in particular in the least developed ones. The magnitude of the effect varies according to the level of development, the dyadic structure of migration costs, and the education policy. Emigration significantly reduces cross-country income inequality and the proportion of the world population living in extreme poverty. |
| Keywords: | human capital; migration; selection; brain drain; brain gain; inequality |
| JEL: | E24 J24 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irs:cepswp:2023-06&r=int |
| By: | Cho, Eun Kyo (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Shim, Woojung (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | In 2022 the US Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). This law aims to reduce American dependency on Chinese batteries and reorder the global supply chain in America’s favor by excluding electric vehicles containing any minerals, materials, or parts sourced from China from federal new car subsidies. In response, China has launched a strategy to strengthen its secondary battery supply chain, leveraging its superiority in all aspects of the chain, including raw materials procurement and cell manufacturing. China’s strategy rests on three core pillars: 1) Internalizing or localizing advanced technologies, 2) globalizing China’s supply chain and increasing investment abroad, and 3) reinforcing the security of its supply chains of raw materials, particularly the supply chains for core minerals. For now, the intensifying US-China rivalry and growing divide in the global supply chain of secondary battery industries presents new opportunities for the Korean battery industry. However, China is determined to bolster its battery technologies and continue to invest abroad; this poses substantial challenges to the Korean battery industry. The Korean secondary battery industry now stands at a crossroads of risks and opportunities, brought about by the widening gaps in the global supply chain and China’s strategy to supercharge its battery industry. Korean policymakers must work to maintain Korea’s technologically superior position by investing in advanced battery research and by establishing a technological alliance with Japan, Germany, and the United States. Korea must also diversify its core minerals supply chains through using the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, and increase its shares in European, Southeast Asian, and other markets worldwide. It should also look to cooperate with China where possible in order to secure an edge over competitors in emerging markets. |
| Keywords: | batteries; secondary batteries; energy storage solutions; US-China rivalry; technology hegemony; economic security; supply chains; technology localization; raw materials; industrial competition; technology competition; US; China; Korea |
| JEL: | F51 F52 F62 L60 L65 L72 L78 Q02 Q34 |
| Date: | 2023–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:2023_001&r=int |
| By: | Cupak, Andrej (National Bank of Slovakia); Ciaian, Pavel (University of Bonn); Kancs, d'Artis (European Commission) |
| Abstract: | The literature has robustly documented a negative migrant-native wage gap in developed economies. Yet empirical evidence of pay differences has been elusive for developing countries. We approach this question by leveraging internationally harmonised microdata with 1.5 million individuals from 6 transition and developing countries and 15 OECD economies spanning from 1995 to 2016 and employ counterfactual decomposition techniques which allow us to control for individual-productivity and job-specific characteristics, and explain up to 72% of the observed immigrant-native wage gap. The Blinder-Oaxaca baseline results indicate that, vis-a-vis comparable workers born in developed economies, the pay for workers born in transition and developing economies is discounted both in their home country labour markets and – if migrating – also in developed host country labour markets. However, the unexplained native-to-migrant wage gap remains sizeable in most countries even after controlling for productivity differentials (28% and more). Cross-country correlation analyses contribute a direct empirical support to the link between variation in unobserved job characteristics and skills among foreign-born and native-born workers and wage gap, while the labour market discrimination environment is of a second-order importance. |
| Keywords: | Labour market, wage gaps, immigrants, decomposition |
| JEL: | D31 J15 J7 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrs:wpaper:202303&r=int |
| By: | Kang, Gusang (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Jonghyuk (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kwon, Hyuk Ju (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Park, Eunbin (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Ko, Jongwan (한국반도체산업협회(KSIA)) |
| Abstract: | 본 연구에서는 바이든 행정부의 반도체 및 전기차 배터리 산업에 대한 미국 중심 공급망 재편 정책 추진 현황과 향후 전망에 대해 논의하였다. 이어서 이 연구는 글로벌 반도체 및 배터리 산업 공급망 현황을 바탕으로 앞으로 해당 산업 공급망 재편의 향방을 가늠해 보았다. 끝으로 본 연구는 바이든 정부의 공급망 재편 정책 시행이 미국과 한국 경제에 미치게 될 영향을 간접적으로 추정하고, 앞선 분석 결과를 바탕으로 한국에 대한 정책 시사점을 도출하였다. This study discusses the current status and future prospects of the Biden administration’s U.S.-centered supply chain reorganization policy for the semiconductor and electric vehicle battery industries. In addition, based on the current status of the global semiconductor and battery industry supply chain, this study addresses the future direction of the industry supply chain reorganization. Finally, this study indirectly estimates the impact of implementation of the Biden government’s supply chain restructuring policy on the U.S. and Korean economies, and derives policy implications accordingly. In February 2021, President Biden signed an Executive Order on the implementation of the supply chain structure and development strategy for major industries in the U.S. Accordingly, a government- wide review of the supply chain structure, supply chain risks, and policy proposals for four key items (semiconductors, large-capacity batteries, core minerals, and pharmaceuticals) over a 100-day period was announced in June 2021. Subsequently, in February 2022, the results of a one-year analysis by seven relevant government departments were released to secure a stable supply chain in six major industries (defense, health, ICT, energy, transportation, and agriculture). Meanwhile, the U.S. Congress passed a series of bills to strengthen the nation’s supply chain. For example, the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, which includes incentives for investment in semiconductor manufacturing facilities and equipment in the U.S., was passed by the Congress on July 28, 2022. In addition, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 for electric vehicle purchase subsidy policy was passed in Congress, and took effect on August 16, 2022 upon President Biden’s signing.(the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | 경제안보; 산업정책; economic security; industrial policy |
| Date: | 2022–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2022_008&r=int |
| By: | Viegelahn, Christian,; Huynh, Phu,; Kim, Kee Beom, |
| Abstract: | South-East Asia has become a key player in global supply chains (GSCs) during recent decades, and the region’s participation in GSCs has had a profound impact on labour markets. This paper presents new 2000–2021 estimates of the number of GSC-related jobs in the region, with an estimated 75 million workers linked to GSCs in 2021—or more than one in four workers. Over time, the region has become increasingly dependent on GSCs for employment despite some short periods of sharp volatility and setbacks, including in 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. |
| Keywords: | value chains, employment |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:995238493502676&r=int |
| By: | Daniel Spiro |
| Abstract: | What actions should we expect countries to take when engaged in economic warfare? This paper first shows that the goal of winning a war implies a very simple and intuitive objective of economic warfare: maximize one’s own less the opponent’s (weight-adjusted) payoff. This objective function is then applied to a number of canonical strategic economic environments showing how warfare transforms them. In a warfare-equilibrium between a buyer and a seller, the traded quantity is lower than in peace but, surprisingly, the price may be lower. The analysis shows when trade will altogether collapses in war and when trade will persist between the parties despite it. A prisoner’s-dilemma game (e.g., monopolistic competition or climate-change mitigation) remains a prisoner's-dilemma game also in war, and cooperation may be impossible also under infinite repetition. A coordination game with heterogeneous preferences (e.g., choosing technological standard) in war collapses to either deliberate miscoordination or to ‘matching pennies’ where one country is trying to imitate the other which is trying to avoid this. The results are interpreted through the lens of the current economic warfare between Russia and the West. |
| Keywords: | economic warfare, conflict, sanction, trade |
| JEL: | C72 D74 F51 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10443&r=int |
| By: | Carry, Inga; Godehardt, Nadine; Müller, Melanie |
| Abstract: | When it comes to being supplied with raw materials, Europe faces a number of challenges. These include the diversification of European supply chains, the implementation of effective sustainability standards, and the reduction of strategic dependencies on China. What will European-Chinese raw material supply chains look like in 2030? This paper outlines three possible scenarios, illustrating the combined effects of different political and socio-economic developments and the impact they could have on European-Chinese supply chains. It aims to help political actors gain a deeper understanding of possible future trajectories and map out appropriate policy strategies in response to different scenarios. |
| Keywords: | raw materials, diversification of European supply chains, effective sustainability standards, reduction of strategic dependencies on China, Sustainability Due Diligence Directive |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:272023&r=int |
| By: | Eugenio Levi (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Piazza dell’Universita 1, 00139 Bolzano, Italy; Masaryk University, Czechia); Michael Bayerlein (German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), Ludwigkirchplatz 3-4, 10719 Berlin, Germany); Gianluca Grimalda (Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiellinie 66, 24105 Kiel, Germany); Tommaso Reggiani (Cardiff University, Colum Road CF103EU, Cardiff, UK; Masaryk University, Czechia; IZA, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Nowadays, immigration is a polarizing topic in politics. In this paper, we investigate how much this political polarization is driven by the depiction narratives made of immigrants vis-a-vis the natives. Furthermore, we look at whether polarization is rooted in private preferences over narratives or in how they are endorsed in public settings and social media. Our empirical strategy consists of a survey experiment in the 2021 German elections and a field experiment on Twitter in which we manipulate the “pinned tweets” of experimental users. To build our narratives, we manipulate either the policy position — hostile toward or accepting migration — or an emphasis on the out-group, on the in-group, or on economic reciprocity. We find that political polarization is driven both by the policy position and emphasis in narratives. On Twitter, the out-group emphasis drives supporters of different parties apart, and the corresponding hostile narrative becomes the only one going viral. In the survey, right-wing participants prefer the reciprocity emphasis more, but we still find evidence of more polarization when allowing the participants to go public. |
| Keywords: | immigration, narratives, political polarization, economic reciprocity, experiments, Twitter |
| JEL: | D72 D91 C93 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mub:wpaper:2023-07&r=int |
| By: | Michael J. Keen (International Monetary Fund (IMF), CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | The international tax treatment of multinationals has fallen into disrepute. Over the last few years, the 140 or so members of the G20/OECD-led Inclusive Framework have put considerable effort into finding ways to fix it. In a recent paper, my co-authors and I explore alternative arrangements — 'Residual Profit Allocation' — that have been proposed to bring the system back to some coherence. And (while we do not claim causality) those arrangements have strong similarities with those that have now secured wide political agreement. |
| Abstract: | Le traitement fiscal international des multinationales est tombé en discrédit. Au cours des dernières années, les quelque 140 membres du cadre inclusif dirigé par le G20 et l'OCDE ont déployé des efforts considérables pour trouver des moyens d'y remédier. Dans un article récent, mes coauteurs et moi-même explorons des arrangements alternatifs - "l'allocation des bénéfices résiduels" - qui ont été proposés pour ramener le système à une certaine cohérence. Et (bien que nous ne prétendions pas qu'il y ait un lien de cause à effet), ces arrangements présentent de grandes similitudes avec ceux qui ont aujourd'hui obtenu un large accord politique. |
| Keywords: | International taxation, Multinationals, Tax coordination, Taxation internationale, Multinationales, Coordination fiscale |
| Date: | 2023–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04101321&r=int |
| By: | Schilirò, Daniele |
| Abstract: | The paper highlights the consequences on the global economy and the people of the COVID-19 pandemic. Changes in the way people work, including the widespread adoption of remote work and modifications in social interactions, have been clear outcomes of the pandemic. Furthermore, the paper emphasizes the highly unequal economic effects experienced by individuals as a result of the pandemic, particularly affecting vulnerable groups such as young people, women, and those with low incomes. Concurrently, the pandemic has also fostered the adoption and development of digital technologies. |
| Keywords: | global economy; digital technologies; covid-19 pandemic |
| JEL: | F00 I0 O30 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:117464&r=int |