nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2023‒05‒01
thirty-one papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Re-Evaluation of Free Trade Agreement: Based on Regional Value Contents in Agricultural, Fishery and Livestock products By Lim, Byeong-ho
  2. Estimation of economic welfare gains from trade facilitation in the Andean Community By Mehmet Nazif; Glenn P. Jenkins
  3. United Kingdom Agricultural Production and Trade Policy Post-Brexit By Jelliffe, Jeremy; Gerval, Adam; Husby, Megan; Jarrell, Philip; Williams, Brian
  4. Input-Trade Liberalization and Formal Employment: Evidence from Mexico By Pamela Bombarda; Maria Bas
  5. CEFTA: Trade and Growth Patterns Fifteen Years since Establishment By Nina Vujanović
  6. Impact of the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on the Algerian economy. By Ouala, Samira
  7. The distributional impacts of trade: The World Bank CGE-GIDD model used in applied trade policy simulations for Rwanda By Osorio Rodarte, Israel; Maliszewska, Maryla; Pereira, Maria Filipa Seara
  8. The Unintended Consequences of High Regional Content Requirements By Keith Head; Thierry Mayer; Marc Melitz
  9. Africa's Agricultural Trade: Recent Trends Leading up to the African Continental Free Trade Area By Johnson, Michael E.; Farris, Jarrad; Morgan, Stephen; Bloem, Jeffrey R.; Ajewole, Kayode; Beckman, Jayson
  10. Trade and Diffusion of Embodied Technology: An Empirical Analysis By Stephen Ayerst; Faisal Ibrahim; Gaelan MacKenzie; Swapnika Rachapalli
  11. Impact of Trade Sanctions against Russia: Analysis using international input-output tables By ITO Koji
  12. Institutions and intra-sub-regional trade: the ECOWAS Case By Fadiran, David; Oyenubi, Adeola
  13. Retaliation through Temporary Trade Barriers By Davide Furceri; Jonathan Ostry; Chris Papageorgiou; Pauline Wibaux
  14. Climate policy with electricity trade By Ambec, Stefan; Yang, Yuting
  15. MATS Report: "Weaponization of Grain Trade. War Impacts on Ukraine’s Production and Market Shares" By Häberli, Christian; Kostetsky, Bogdan
  16. A CGE model to assess the effects of the AfCFTA in the economy of the least developed countries of Africa: the case of Chad By Nassour Cherif, Abdelhamid; Coly, Samuel Maxime
  17. Global flows and rates of international migration of scholars By Aliakbar Akbaritabar; Tom Theile; Emilio Zagheni
  18. Household Responses to Trade Shocks By Irastorza-Fadrique, Aitor; Levell, Peter; Parey, Matthias
  19. 미중 전략경쟁 시기의 대만 문제와 한국의 경제안보(The Taiwan Issue and Korea's Economic Security in the Era of U.S.-China Strategic Competition) By Heo, Jaichul
  20. Household responses to trade shocks By Peter Levell; Matthias Parey; Aitor Irastorza-Fadrique
  21. Employment, Trade and Growth Impact of the AfCFTA in Togo By Mihesso, Koffi Adantor
  22. COVID-19, Tourism, and the Cost of Uneven Recovery By Arriola, Christine; Kowalski, Przemyslaw; van Tongeren, Frank
  23. The future of EU agriculture in a global context By Van Zeist, Willem-Jan; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans
  24. Reflections on Geopolitics By Elsig, Manfred
  25. Backcasting world trade growth using data reduction methods By Amélie Charles; Olivier Darné
  26. The Devil Is in the Details – Finnish Companies in the Vortex of International Tax Reforms By Ropponen, Olli; Viertola, Marika; Kari, Seppo; Valkonen, Tarmo
  27. The Football World Cup: the good deal? By Luc Arrondel; Richard Duhautois
  28. Technology and Globalization in the Very Long Run By Krugman, Paul
  29. Global food policy report 2023: Rethinking food crisis responses: Synopsis By International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
  30. Global Biodiversity Scenarios By Julien CALAS; Antoine GODIN; Etienne ESPAGNE (World Bank); Julie Maurin (AFD)
  31. Does Emissions Trading Scheme Induce Innovation and Carbon Leakage? Evidence from Japan By Guanyu Lu; Taisuke Sadayuki; Toshi H Arimura

  1. By: Lim, Byeong-ho
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the economic effects of FTAs using the concept of value-added exports. So far, the economic effects of FTAs have been dependent on decrease in import prices due to tariff cuts in importing countries, but the actual tariff reduction need to consider the value added of the exporting countries. Value-added export refers to the value created in the exporting country out of total exports. Among value-added exports, direct value-added export is interpreted as the Regional Value Contents (RVC), from which the economic effect of the FTA can be analyzed. A modified GTAP-VA model takes into account RVC in order to fix overestimation problem. By the re-evaluation of the FTA based on the RVC, this paper makes it clear that the economic effects of the existing FTA methodology have the possibility of overestimation.
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade, Public Economics
    Date: 2022
  2. By: Mehmet Nazif (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Northern Cyprus via Mersin 10, Turkey); Glenn P. Jenkins (Department of Economics, Queens University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada and Cambridge Resources International Inc.)
    Abstract: Border procedures around the globe can act as barriers hindering international trade. Another impact of these procedures relates to their economic resource costs. In this study, using a microeconomic framework of international trade, the potential economic gains are estimated for reductions in trade administration costs related to sea border trade in the Andean Community (CAN) as well as for the increase in import and export trades that are stimulated as a consequence of the reduction in trade administration costs. The potential cost reductions are estimated separately for import and export trade. The estimates are made with respect to the existing levels of trade flows. We measure the excess economic cost of the current trade administration procedures in CAN with respect to two benchmark levels of trade administration costs, namely those for Chile and Singapore. Our results suggest that improving the trade administration cost levels to match those of the reference countries will enable CAN countries to enjoy economic resource savings of between US$1.25 billion and US$1.5 billion annually, corresponding to 0.19% to 0.23% of their gross domestic product. Given the current trade environment of CAN nations, relevant policy and reform options are suggested. The key policy recommendation is to improve the electronic single window system for trade administration and in particular, the interconnectivity of information flows between the member countries of CAN. Maintaining the port infrastructure is also critical for the delivery of efficient services for the movement of goods.
    Keywords: international trade; trade facilitation; trade administration cost; trade transaction costs; economic gain; welfare gain; Andean Community; Latin America
    JEL: F14 F13 D60
    Date: 2023–04–08
  3. By: Jelliffe, Jeremy; Gerval, Adam; Husby, Megan; Jarrell, Philip; Williams, Brian
    Abstract: The United Kingdom (UK) is an important regional agricultural producer with historical prominence in the global agri-food trade. Agriculture covers more than two-thirds of UK land, and top agricultural goods produced include animal products (beef, pork, lamb, poultry, and dairy) and grain (wheat, barley, and oats). Agri-food represents the largest manufacturing sector in the UK, which is known for specialty products. Over recent decades, the UK’s membership in the European Union (EU) mostly defined the country’s agri-food production and trade policies. After leaving the EU through Brexit, the UK is responsible for constructing agricultural policy and negotiating trade agreements. This report explores trends in UK agricultural production and trade and considers the historical UK-EU coupling and potential shifts in agri-food trade patterns post-Brexit.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Relations/Trade, Political Economy, Public Economics
    Date: 2023–02–21
  4. By: Pamela Bombarda; Maria Bas (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA)
    Abstract: This work investigates the role of input-trade liberalization on labor allocation between informal and formal employment in Mexico. Using individual household data for Mexico (1993-2001), we exploit exogenous input tariff changes applied to United States (U.S.) products when Mexico enters the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994. The theoretical mechanisms considered are the foreign input cost reduction that increases revenues in the formal sector and the foreign input-skilled biased channel, such that input-trade liberalization induces the reallocation of workers from informal to formal firms. Our findings confirm these mechanisms: individuals working in manufacturing industries experiencing the average reduction in input tariffs (12 percentage points) are almost 4 percent more likely to work in formal rather than informal occupations. This effect is concentrated on high-skilled workers which reinforces the input-skilled biased complementarity channel.
    Keywords: informal and formal employment, trade liberalization, household data
    JEL: F12 F16 O14 J16 O17
    Date: 2023
  5. By: Nina Vujanović (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: This research report investigates the trade and growth benefits of the CEFTA agreement for its members. Although the countries have not reached their end goal of membership of the European Union, the report shows that CEFTA has supported their economic growth. However, there is trade heterogeneity in terms of the extent to which individual countries use CEFTA value added in their manufacturing exports. Less-developed economies seem to rely more on regional (CEFTA) supply chains, while manufacturing-based economies are increasingly coming to rely on EU supply chains. The countries have not built a strong export advantage abroad, as very little of their value added is used in EU exports.
    Keywords: CEFTA, trade, supply chains, growth
    JEL: B17 F14 F43 F63
    Date: 2023–04
  6. By: Ouala, Samira
    Abstract: The main aim of this paper is to assess the unilateral impact of the establishment of the African Free Trade Area on the Algerian economy. Therefore, we used a computable general equilibrium model, applied on an Algerian social accounting matrix from 2018. In fact, the analysis of the impact of this agreement is based on two simulations: the first consists of evaluating the elimination of half the tariff barriers, while the second simulation is devoted to the total elimination of tariff barriers. The impact study is measured on growth, income, employment and internal and external balance. Where, trade liberalization in both scenarios has a neuter effect on GDP. Furthermore, trade increases in all scenarios, increasing import bills which increase considerably from the African zone. Moreover, the simulation, causes a decrease in the State’s revenues. Hence, the government deficit in relation to GDP would increase in the both scenarios. Finally, the impact on welfare, shows a marginal gain in household welfare.
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2022
  7. By: Osorio Rodarte, Israel; Maliszewska, Maryla; Pereira, Maria Filipa Seara
    Abstract: This paper assess the economic and distributional impacts of a set of ex-ante trade policy simulation in Rwanda based on a global top-down macro-micro simulation framework. Policies under analysis include Rwanda’s integration in the African Continental Free Trade Area, greater participation of Rwanda in GVCs vis-à-vis reshoring global production, and the effects of temporary trade restrictions with main trading partners.
    Keywords: Labor and Human Capital, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2022
  8. By: Keith Head; Thierry Mayer; Marc Melitz
    Abstract: Rules of origin (RoOs) are a common feature of regional trade agreements that fall short of full custom unions. Two of the most important trade agreements, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the European Union (EU), recently enacted major changes to those rules. The 2020 USMCA agreement replacing NAFTA made those rules much stricter. Meanwhile, following its exit from the EU customs union, Britain and the remaining EU27 had to draw up new rules of origin for the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). This paper quantifies the main trade-offs involved in setting the strictness of RoOs in the context of the automobile industry. A more stringent agreement can raise or lower regional parts production, but it inevitably raises prices. Fitting our model to data on the use of NAFTA-origin parts in cars assembled within the region, we calibrate the key parameters that govern the responses to stricter RoOs. We then apply the calibrated model to evaluate the switch from NAFTA to the USMCA as well as other counterfactuals of interest.
    Keywords: Regional Agreements;Rules of Origin;Cars
    JEL: F1
    Date: 2023–03
  9. By: Johnson, Michael E.; Farris, Jarrad; Morgan, Stephen; Bloem, Jeffrey R.; Ajewole, Kayode; Beckman, Jayson
    Abstract: The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has the potential to be among the largest free trade areas in the world once fully implemented; trade under the AfCFTA began on January 1, 2021. It could potentially connect 1.3 billion people across 55 countries with a combined gross domestic product (GDP) valued at $3.4 trillion, according to the World Bank. The free trade area could particularly influence African agricultural trade as growth in member economies increase the demand for processed agricultural products. These include sugars, beverages, miscellaneous prepared foods, animal and vegetable oils, dairy and poultry, and prepared cereals. This report examines past and emerging trends in Africa’s sources and destinations of agricultural commodities traded. Particular attention is given to the changing patterns of agricultural trade from within and outside the continent, including within existing free trade areas. While intraregional nonagricultural trade dominates the region, consumer-oriented agricultural goods contributed to about half of the intra-Africa agricultural trade from 2017–19. Much of the growth in agricultural trade was within the region over the last two decades. U.S. agricultural exports to Africa also slowly shifted from bulk cereals (wheat and corn) to higher value agricultural products such as poultry. Consumer-oriented and intermediate agricultural goods made up 44 percent of U.S. agricultural exports to Africa in 2017–19, up from 29 percent in 1999–2001. High urban population and income growth rates, together with the AfCFTA’s potential to expand intra-Africa trade may offer an opportunity for U.S. firms to help meet Africa’s rapidly growing demand.
    Keywords: Agricultural Finance, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Political Economy
    Date: 2022–11–17
  10. By: Stephen Ayerst; Faisal Ibrahim; Gaelan MacKenzie; Swapnika Rachapalli
    Abstract: Using data from patents, citations, inter-sectoral sales and customs, we examine the international diffusion of technology through imports of sectoral knowledge and production inputs. We construct measures of the flow of technology embodied in imports. These measures are weighted by inter-sectoral knowledge and production input-output linkages that capture the relevance of this technology for generating new innovations in different sectors in importing countries. We develop an instrumental variable strategy to identify the causal effects of technology embodied in imports on innovation and diffusion outcomes. For sectors in importing countries, increases in both knowledge- and production-weighted embodied technology imports lead to technology diffusion (measured using backward citations in new patent applications) and increases in the rate of new innovations (measured using the forward citations those patents receive). Effects are substantially larger for knowledge-weighted imports of embodied technology, which also lead to improvements in the average quality of new innovations.
    Keywords: Development economics; International topics; Productivity; Trade integration
    JEL: O33 F14 O31 O19 F61
    Date: 2023–04
  11. By: ITO Koji
    Abstract: Immediately after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the G7, the EU, and others imposed economic sanctions, including trade measures, against Russia. The sanctions were expected to have a serious impact on the Russian economy. However Russia's real economic growth rate in 2022 was only down by 2.1%, leaving doubts about the effectiveness of the sanctions. Therefore, in this paper I conducted a simulation using the OECD "Inter Country Input-Output Table" (ICIO) to analyze the impact of the trade sanctions against Russia on the production activities of each country. If sanctions and countermeasures reduce trade between OECD member countries and Russia by 20%, Russian production will fall by 4.76%, mainly in the mining and petroleum and coal product manufacturing industries. This figure is close to the rate of decline in Russia's GDP during the chaotic period of the late 1990s, meaning that it will have a certain impact. However, based on the actual trade trends after the sanction, I analyzed the case where only OECD countries cut their exports to Russia and Russia does not restrict exports to sanctioned countries. In this case, even if exports decreased by 20%, Russia's production value would only decrease by 0.02%. This result can be attributed to Russia's trade structure, which mainly exports raw materials and imports final goods. Based on the analysis in this paper, the trade sanctions seem to be largely ineffective in the current situation where the number of countries implementing sanctions is small and Europe, Japan and other countries imposing sanctions are accepting imports from Russia.
    Date: 2023–04
  12. By: Fadiran, David; Oyenubi, Adeola
    Abstract: Extensive evidence has been found in literature for the role of institutions in determining the outcomes of a number of macroeconomic variables. This evidence is however inconclusive in the case of trade. In this paper, the gravity model of trade is employed in an empirical assessment of the relationship between institutions and intra-sub-regional trade. In this regard, the overall impact of the quality of institutions is examined, as well as the impact of the difference in quality of institutions between trading countries, on bilateral trade within the ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) region. The empirical results show evidence of significant impact of differences in the quality of institutions on intra-sub-regional trade.
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2022
  13. By: Davide Furceri; Jonathan Ostry; Chris Papageorgiou; Pauline Wibaux
    Abstract: Are Temporary Trade Barriers (TTBs) introduced for strategic reasons? To answer this question, we construct a novel sectoral measure of retaliation using daily bilateral data on TTB responses in 1220 subsectors across a panel of 25 advanced and emerging market economies during the period 1989-2019. Stylized facts and econometric analysis suggest that within-year responses are more important in terms of intensity and frequency than commonly understood from the existing literature, which has tended to ignore them. We find that retaliation often consists of responses across many sectors and that same-sector retaliation is far from being the norm. In addition, we find that larger countries tend to retaliate more, and that retaliation is larger during periods of higher unemployment and when the trading partner targeted a domestic comparative advantage sector.
    Keywords: Trade Retaliation;Protectionism;Antidumping;Temporary Trade Barriers
    JEL: F13 F14 F15
    Date: 2023–03
  14. By: Ambec, Stefan; Yang, Yuting
    Abstract: Trade reduces the effectiveness of climate policies such as carbon pricing when domestic products are replaced by more carbon-intensive imports. We investigate the impact of unilateral carbon pricing on electricity generation in a country open to trade through interconnection lines. We characterize the energy mix with intermittent renewable sources of energy (wind or solar power). Electricity trade limits the penetration of renewables due to trade-induced competition. A carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) removes this limit by increasing the cost of imported power, or by deterring imports. The CBAM must be complemented by a subsidy on renewables to increase renewable generation above domestic consumption. The interconnection line is then used to export power rather than importing it when renewables are producing. We also look at network pricing and investment into interconnection capacity. A higher carbon price increases interconnection investment which further reduces the effectiveness of carbon pricing. In contrast, when renewable electricity is exported, a higher subsidy on renewables reduces further carbon emissions by expanding interconnection capacity.
    Keywords: Intermittent renewables; electricity interconnection; carbon pricing;; carbon border adjustment mechanism; renewable subsidy; carbon leakage
    JEL: D24 F18 F64 H23 Q27 Q48 Q54
    Date: 2023–03–31
  15. By: Häberli, Christian; Kostetsky, Bogdan
    Abstract: The latest report of the project "Repairing Broken Food Trade Routes Ukraine – Africa” covers: Weaponisation of grain trade (continued) - war impact on Ukraine’ grain production and market shares Deeper study of risks for Ukrainian supply Quantification of effects of the war on agriculture, economy and ecology This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme “Making Agricultural Trade Sustainable” (MATS) programme ( The role of MATS/WTI in this programme is to identify and explore “broken” Ukrainian - African food trade routes due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Starting with a food trade flow chart pre- and post-24 February 2022, it will assess, first, whether Ukrainian (or African) traders can again supply these products (Output 1). Failing that, whether the new EU-financed “Crisis Management” (or another) programme can possibly make up for lost Ukrainian agrifood exports (Output 2). It will also identify alternative exporters (if any) which might already have filled in agrifood demand in Africa (Output 3). Importantly, the Project also looks at the potential effect of these developments on competing farm production in Africa (Output 4). For further information and/or offer to assist in project implementation, please write to Christian Häberli ( or to Bogdan Kostetsky (
    Date: 2023–04–12
  16. By: Nassour Cherif, Abdelhamid; Coly, Samuel Maxime
    Abstract: The purpose of the study focused on the analysis of the effects of the implementation of the Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on the Chadian economy. Indeed, Chad, classified among the least developed countries, benefits from a reduction in the implementation of liberalization according to the liberalization schedule. A recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model adapted from the PEP-t model of Décaluwé et al (2013) was used to model the Chadian economy. The accounting basis of the model is the SAM of Chad developed by Décaluwé in 2008. This SAM which has 5 economic agents, 19 branches and 19 products has been adapted to our model with a breakdown of capital into public capital and private capital then a breakdown of work in formal work and informal work.
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2022
  17. By: Aliakbar Akbaritabar (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Tom Theile (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Emilio Zagheni (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: Lack of reliable and comprehensive migration data is one of the major reasons that prevents advancements in our understanding of the causes and consequences of migration processes, including for specific groups like high-skilled migrants. We leverage large-scale bibliometric data from Scopus and OpenAlex to trace the global movements of a specific group of innovators: scholars. We developed pre-processing steps and offered best practices for the measurement and identification of migration events from bibliometric data. Our results show a high level of correlation between the count of scholars in Scopus and OpenAlex for most countries. While the magnitude of observed migration events in OpenAlex is larger than in Scopus, the bilateral flows among top pairs of origin and destination countries are consistent in the two databases. Even though OpenAlex has a higher coverage of non-Western countries, the highest correlations with Scopus are observed in Western countries. We share our aggregated estimates of international migration rates, and bilateral flows, at the country level, and expect that our estimates will enable researchers to improve our understanding of the causes and consequences of migration of scholars, and to forecast the future mobility of global academic talent.
    Keywords: Europe, World, international migration, migration, migration flow
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2023
  18. By: Irastorza-Fadrique, Aitor (University of Essex); Levell, Peter (Institute for Fiscal Studies, London); Parey, Matthias (University of Surrey)
    Abstract: We use large-scale panel data from linked decadal censuses in England and Wales to study the responses of both individuals and their partners to rising Chinese import competition in the 2000s. We test whether partners provide insurance against lost household earnings by increasing labour supply. We find that both own and partner responses to the shock vary significantly by gender. Men in households exposed to import competition respond by increasing labour force participation at older ages, and by moving into solo self-employment. This is true both in response to their own trade exposure, and as an 'added worker effect' when their partner is exposed to the shock. By contrast, we find no such response for women, who do not increase labour supply if their male partners were initially employed in exposed industries. In general, self-employment appears to act as an employment buffer for men but not women. The impacts of import competition on partnering and family dissolution also differ according to the gender of those affected: for women below 45, but not men, exposure to the trade shock reduces the likelihood of divorce and of living with a new partner. Overall, our findings underscore the importance of investigating household responses, and the self-employment margin, to fully understand the effects of trade shocks.
    Keywords: import competition, families, labour supply, added-worker effects
    JEL: D10 F14 F16 F61 J12
    Date: 2023–03
    Abstract: 미중 전략경쟁 심화와 4차 산업혁명에 따른 반도체 수요의 증가, 그리고 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 등을 배경으로대만 문제가 부각되고 있다. 본 연구는 공급망 안정과 산업경쟁력, 경제적 통치술을 중심으로 한 경제안보의관점에서 대만해협 유사시 우리의 경제안보가 받게 될 영향과 시사점에 대해 고찰하였다. During the Cold War, the United States and China began visible efforts to normalize relations in 1972, with the strategic intent of jointly responding to the common threat posed by the Soviet Union, and finally established diplomatic relations in 1979. In this process, the Taiwan issue was one of the biggest obstacles to normalizing bilateral relations. Nevertheless, the two countries succeeded in establishing diplomatic relations by agreeing on the “One China” principle (policy) andrecognition of non-governmental exchanges between the U.S. and Taiwan, and have managed the Taiwan issue based on three joint statements made by the two countries. However, the Taiwan issue has been brought to the forefront again, mainly due to great transformation in the international order and strategic competition between the U.S. and China, created by the rise of China and the response of the U.S. to contain it. Of course, even after the establishment of diplomatic relations between the U.S. and China, friction between the U.S. and China over the Taiwan issue and confrontation between both sides of the Taiwan Straits (i.e. Chinese mainland and Taiwan) have continued. However, the recent U.S.-China strategic competition has further increased the risk and uncertainty of the Taiwan issue. In addition, with the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine War, the international community's concern about the Taiwan Strait has grown, and the strategic value of Taiwan is rising even more in the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, as an important actor in the global semiconductor supply chain. Against this background, this study analyzes the impact of U.S.-China strategic competition on the Taiwan issue and considers the implications for Korea in terms of supply chain stability, industrial competitiveness, and economic statecraft, which are important elements of economic security.First, the supply chain instability that can result from an emergency in the Taiwan Strait will mainly occur along the maritime transportation route, which accounts for an overwhelming portion of Korea's import and export volume.(the rest omitted)
    Keywords: 경제안보; 중국정치; Economic security; Chinese politics
    Date: 2023–03–09
  20. By: Peter Levell (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Matthias Parey (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Aitor Irastorza-Fadrique (Institute for Fiscal Studies)
    Date: 2023–03–24
  21. By: Mihesso, Koffi Adantor
    Abstract: L’Accord portant création de la zone de libre-échange continentale africaine (ZLECAf), est signé par 54 pays africains dont le Togo. Il vise à créer un marché unique pour les marchandises, les services, et favoriser la circulation des personnes afin d'approfondir l'intégration économique du continent africain conformément à la vision panafricaine énoncée dans l'Agenda 2063. Pour la mise en œuvre de cet accord, le Gouvernement togolais a élaboré une stratégie nationale assortie d’une matrice d’actions de mise en œuvre. Pour tirer meilleur parti de la mise en œuvre de cette stratégie, le présent article étudie l’impact de la ZLECAf ces sur l’emploi, le commerce et la croissance au Togo avec un modèle d'équilibre général calculable (EGC) dynamique récursif à l’instar de Decaluwe, et al. (2013).
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade, Labor and Human Capital
    Date: 2022
  22. By: Arriola, Christine; Kowalski, Przemyslaw; van Tongeren, Frank
    Abstract: COVID-19 has had an unprecedented negative impact on the global economy, and the effects are felt most acutely in the tourism sector. A safe return of the international tourism sector is essential to the million’s of people around the globe who rely on this sector for their livelihood. Given the nature of the international tourism industry, the sector’s rebound depends on a coordinated effort among governments to relax cross-border travel restrictions. This paper attempts to quantify the cost if these efforts fail. Using the OECD METRO model, we find that an uneven recovery in the tourism sectors would reduce the gains in real GDP by 1.4 USD trln, relative to an even recovery where all countries simultaneously relax restrictions on the tourism sector to the same degree
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2022
  23. By: Van Zeist, Willem-Jan; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans
    Abstract: This study gathered views of the potential future development of the EU agri-food sectors in the long term (up to and including 2050) and investigated what this could mean for the course of action to be taken. What are the possible consequences of several driving forces – as far as they are known today – that will determine the future of EU agriculture and horticulture? The starting point was a reference scenario: how will agriculture develop if policies do not change? Several variants were then considered. The variation is related to the degree of greening (implementation of the Paris Agreement/Green Deal) and whether this greening takes place unilaterally in the EU or also globally. Another variable is the extent to which trade is further liberalised.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2022
  24. By: Elsig, Manfred
    Abstract: Abstract The notion of geopolitics is widely used in public debates these days. This paper focuses on how the concept has evolved over time in the study of international economic cooperation focusing in particular on trade and investment policies. In light of international relations and international political economy perspectives, the paper discusses the origins of the concepts found in the early 20th century. It then describes how it was marginalized by mainstream theories during the Cold War period, albeit it was implicitly taken up by theorists in the tradition of offensive realism. The paper then maps the liberal turn of the 1990s in political economy and how power politics were further relegated to the background with increasing market integration. It was not until the 2000s when power politics made a slow return. Both academia and politics have been witnessing a surprising renaissance of geopolitics in the past 10 years. The paper maps out the contours of this new variant of geopolitics, a mix of superpower rivalry and economic nationalism, and offers some reflections regarding the danger of deterministic scenarios and ways to temper geopolitics going forward. Biography Prof. Manfred Elsig
    Date: 2023–04–12
  25. By: Amélie Charles (USN AM - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - UFR Arts et médias - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3, Audencia Business School); Olivier Darné (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - ONIRIS - École nationale vétérinaire, agroalimentaire et de l'alimentation Nantes-Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - IUML - FR 3473 Institut universitaire Mer et Littoral - UM - Le Mans Université - UA - Université d'Angers - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Nantes Université - pôle Sciences et technologie - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Nantes Univ - ECN - Nantes Université - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université)
    Abstract: This paper compares backcasting performance of models based on variable selection to dynamic factor model for backcasting the world trade growth rate with two months ahead. The variable selection models are specified by applying penalised regressions and an automatic general-to-specific procedure, using a large data set. A recursive forecast study is carried out to assess the backcasting performance by distinguishing crisis and non-crisis periods. The results show that, some selection-based models exhibit a good backcasting performance during both periods. The more accurate backcasts seem to be SCAD, adaptive Elastic-Net and adaptive SCAD during the global financial crisis (GFC) and COVID-19 crisis, whereas it seems rather Lasso, Elastic-Net, adaptive Lasso and DFM during the noncrisis period. Amongst the predictors for backcasting world trade growth, it appears that the index of global economic conditions proposed by Baumeister et al. (The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2020), the PMI indicator on new export orders in manufacturing sector and the MSCI world index are relevant.
    Keywords: backcasting, general- to-specific approach, shrinkage methods, variable selection, world trade growth
    Date: 2022
  26. By: Ropponen, Olli; Viertola, Marika; Kari, Seppo; Valkonen, Tarmo
    Abstract: Abstract International corporate tax system does not succeed very well in taxing the cross-border business of the multinational enterprises. Therefore, both the European Union (EU) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have proposed several tax reforms. We recognize in this Etla Brief the most central corporate tax reform proposals and evaluate their effects on the tax burden of the Finnish companies and on the tax revenues in Finland. Minimum tax (Pillar 2) is the only reform that provides favorable outcomes for both companies and government. It increases the investment incentives of companies by reducing their tax burden, while at the same time increasing the tax revenues in Finland. The proposed 15 percent minimum tax rate is better option from both the company and the government perspective than higher minimum tax rates. See also Etla Report no 138 Finnish Companies in the Vortex of International Tax Reforms.
    Keywords: International corporate taxation, Multinational enterprises (MNEs), Investments, Business in Europe: Framework for Income Taxation (BEFIT), Pillar 1, Pillar 2, Common (Consolidated) Corporate Tax Base (C(C)CTB)
    JEL: H25 H71 F21 F23 G11
    Date: 2023–04–12
  27. By: Luc Arrondel (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Richard Duhautois (LIRSA - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire de recherche en sciences de l'action - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - HESAM - HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université, CEET - Centre d'études de l'emploi et du travail - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - HESAM - HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé)
    Abstract: The "jewel" in FIFA's crown and its main "asset" remains the World Cup. Established in 1928, it has been held every four years since the 1930 tournament hosted and won by Uruguay among 13 teams. Qatar will host 32 teams, but more than 200 teams from all six continental confederations have participated in the qualifying rounds. After the Second World War, the World Cup experienced a very strong growth in terms of broadcasting (from 1966), sporting notoriety, social stakes and economic activity (especially from the 1970s). The competition has become a global event, benefiting from a planetary diffusion. Not only has the World Cup become FIFA's main source of funding, but many national federations and governments are interested in hosting the event to benefit from the potential social and economic benefits.
    Abstract: Le « joyau » de la couronne de la FIFA et son principal « actif » demeure la Coupe du monde. Créée en 1928, elle a lieu tous les quatre ans depuis le tournoi de 1930 organisé et remporté par l'Uruguay parmi treize prétendants. Le Qatar accueillera 32 équipes, mais plus de 200 formations appartenant aux six confédérations continentales ont participé aux phases éliminatoires. Après la Seconde Guerre mondiale, la Coupe du monde va connaitre une très forte croissance en termes de diffusion (à partir de 1966), de notoriété sportive, d'enjeu social et d'activité économique (surtout à partir des années 1970). La compétition est devenue un évènement global, bénéficiant d'une diffusion planétaire. La Coupe du monde est non seulement devenue la principale source de financement de la FIFA, mais un grand nombre de fédérations nationales et de gouvernements souhaitent organiser cet événement pour bénéficier d'éventuelles retombées en matière sociales et économiques.
    Keywords: Economy, Geopolitics, Television, World Cup, Coupe du monde, Economie, FIFA, Géoéconomie, Télévision
    Date: 2022
  28. By: Krugman, Paul
    Abstract: Must the world always get flatter? Many people assume that advancing technology will always promote globalization. But a careful analysis suggests that technological progress can sometimes lead to less, not more, international trade. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper)
    Date: 2023–04–07
  29. By: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
    Abstract: In 2022, the world faced multiple crises. Disruptions to food systems from the protracted COVID-19 pandemic, major natural disasters, civil unrest and political instability, and the growing impacts of climate change continued, as the Russia-Ukraine war and inflation exacerbated a global food and fertilizer crisis. The growing number of crises, their increasing impact, and rising numbers of hungry and displaced people have galvanized calls to rethink responses to food crises, creating a real opportunity for change.
    Keywords: agriculture; development; food security; hunger; policy; resilience; crises
    Date: 2023
  30. By: Julien CALAS; Antoine GODIN; Etienne ESPAGNE (World Bank); Julie Maurin (AFD)
    Abstract: Policy Paper 12 : Global Biodiversity Scenarios - Mandarin Version This paper aims to review and compare existing global and quantitative biodiversity scenarios that could help to build a forward-looking assessment of the consequences of biodiversity loss. More broadly, it provides a literature review of existing biodiversity scenarios and models as well as an assessment of the path forward forresearch to developing scenarios for biodiversityrelated socio-economic impacts at each step of the process:from building narratives, quantifying the impacts and dependencies, assessing the uncertainty range on the results all the way from the ecosystem to the economic and financial asset.This publication is also available in English and French.
    JEL: Q
    Date: 2023–03–17
  31. By: Guanyu Lu (Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University); Taisuke Sadayuki (Faculty of Economics, Seijo University); Toshi H Arimura (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University)
    Abstract: This study aims to explore if Japan’s environmental regulation, such as its regional emissions trading scheme (ETS), can improve innovation without inducing carbon leakage. Using unique firm-level data for the period from 2003 to 2018, based on the difference-in-differences method, this study investigates how firms address issues such as innovation and outsourcing under Japan’s regional ETS framework. The key findings are as follows. (1) Japan’s regional ETS is effective in improving targeted firms’ innovation during the early stage of the compliance period. (2) Targeted firms that pursued innovation before the ETS promoted subsequent innovations after the ETS. (3) Japan’s regional ETS did not induce the risk of carbon leakage through outsourcing activities. (4) Firms that did not actively encourage innovation increased their outsourcing activities during the compliance period. Based on these findings, we discuss the study implications and directions for future policy design.
    Keywords: Emissions trading scheme, Japan, innovation, carbon leakage, outsourcing activity, difference-in-differences
    JEL: Q48 Q50 Q55 Q56 Q58 Q59
    Date: 2023–03

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