nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2023‒03‒20
37 papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Monitoring trade in plastic waste and scrap By Andrew Brown; Frithjof Laubinger; Peter Börkey
  2. Distributive Profiles Associated with Domestic Versus International Specialization in Global Value Chains By Ariel Luis Wirkierman
  3. Economic Sanctions and Trade Flows in the Neighbourhood By Bove, Vincenzo; Di Salvatore, Jessica; Nistico, Roberto
  4. Trade in Times of Uncertainty By Anna Matzner; Birgit Meyer; Harald Oberhofer
  5. The International Spillover Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty on the Stockpiling and Destocking of US Imports By Wisarut Suwanprasert
  6. Estimating the Effects of Trade Agreements: Lessons from 60 Years of Methods and Data By Mario Larch; Yoto V. Yotov
  7. Complex Europe: Quantifying Cost of Disintegration By Gabriel Felbermayr; Jasmin Gröschl; Inga Heiland; Jasmin Katrin Gröschl
  8. The relative importance of global agricultural subsidies and tariffs, revisited. By Kym Anderson; Erwin Corong; Anna Strutt; Ernesto Valenzuela
  9. Green subsidies as strategic trade policy tools By Buccella, Domenico; Fanti, Luciano; Gori, Luca
  10. Labour market power and the dynamic gains to openness reforms By Priyaranjan Jha; Antonio Rodriguez-Lope; Adam Hal Spencer
  11. Trade and Regional Economic Development By Mathias Bühler
  12. China in South America. Development consequences for Argentina and Brazil By Bona, Leandro Marcelo; Páez, Sergio Martín
  13. Automation, Global Value Chains and Functional Specialization By Lionel Fontagné; Ariell Reshef; Gianluca Santoni; Giulio Vannelli
  14. Exchange rates, tariffs and prices in 1930s Britain By Chadha, Jagjit S.; Lennard, Jason; Solomou, Solomos; Thomas, Ryland
  15. World Prices and Business Cycles of a Small Open Input-Output Economy By Khelifi, Atef
  16. ICT effects on firm’s export decisions: evidence for Colombian manufacturing By Andrés Mauricio Gomez-Sanchez; Juan A. Máñez Castillejo; Juan Alberto Sanchis-Llopis
  17. Foreign Direct Investment and Strategic Minerals By Tanguy Bonnet
  18. Impact of shocks to economies on the efficiency and robustness of the international pesticide trade networks By Jian-An Li; Li Wang; Wen-Jie Xie; Wei-Xing Zhou
  19. Weak sectors and weak ties? Labour dependence and asymmetric positioning in GVCs By Lorenzo Cresti; Maria Enrica Virgillito
  20. The effect of skills acquired abroad by return migrants on social relations and quality of life in Cameroon By Gislain S. GANDJON FANKEM; Dieudonné TAKA; Sévérin TAMWO
  21. Stock market correlation and geographical distance: does the degree of economic integration matter? By Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo; Manguzvane, Mathias Mandla
  22. Detecting Learning by Exporting and from Exporters By Jingfang Zhang; Emir Malikov
  23. Northern Triangle Undocumented Migration to the United States By Ms. Alina Carare; Mr. Yorbol Yakhshilikov; Catherine Koh
  24. Crossing Borders: Labor Market Effects of European Integration By Illing, Hannah
  25. From re-instrumenting to re-purposing farm support policies. By Kym Anderson; Anna Strutt
  26. Border Apprehensions and Federal Sentencing of Hispanic Citizens in the United States By Simone Bertoli; Morgane Laouénan; Jérôme Valette
  27. The Number of Employed Immigrants Has Increased in Finland By Kangasharju, Aki; Kauhanen, Antti; Kalmbach, Aino; Valkonen, Tarmo
  28. The Global Economic Polycrisis and the Korean Economy By Kang, Duyong
  29. Back For Business: The Link Between Foreign Experience and Entrepreneurial Activity in Latvia By Kata Fredheim; Marija Krumina; Anders Paalzow; Zane Varpina
  30. Can Tax Incentives Bring Brains Back? Returnees Tax Schemes and High-Skilled Migration in Italy By Jacopo Bassetto; Giuseppe Ippedico
  31. Navigating the internationalization process: Strategic resources for early internationalizing firms By Angélique Breuillot; Rachel Bocquet; Véronique Favre-Bonté
  32. How Do Corporate Tax Hikes Affect Investment Allocation within Multinationals? By Antonio De Vito; Martin Jacob; Dirk Schindler; Guosong Xu
  33. Giving up the euro can be a good and a bad idea By Thomas COUDERT; Blandine ZIMMER
  34. SAME JOB, DIFFERENT WAGE FOR MIGRANTS? Nicaraguan migrants and living wage in Costa Rica By Koen Voorend; Richard Anker; Martha Anker
  35. International Commodity Prices Transmission to Consumer Prices in Africa By Thibault Lemaire; Paul Vertier
  36. The Decision to Emigrate in Six MENA Countries: The Role of Post-Revolutionary Stress By Fakih, Ali; El Baba, Malak
  37. Macroeconomic risk factors and Chinese FDIs in real estate: Evidence from the Asia-Pacific public real estate markets By Alain Coen; Patrick Lecomte; Saadallah Zaiter

  1. By: Andrew Brown; Frithjof Laubinger; Peter Börkey
    Abstract: Global trade in plastic waste and scrap declined further (2017-2021) in 2021 and preliminary data indicates a continuing trend in the first half of 2022 (January to May). The combined trade surplus of OECD Member Countries (i.e., the difference between exports and imports) continued to decrease. Less plastic waste and scrap is being exported by OECD countries to non-OECD countries, however some countries still export substantial volumes to non-OECD countries. Particularly several non-OECD south-east Asian countries remain large export destinations. At the same time, trade between OECD countries has increased. The value and composition of plastic waste and scrap exports in 2021 suggests that more high value and easy to recycle plastic waste was traded. The trade regime remains dynamic with new export destinations emerging, which deserve further monitoring.
    Keywords: circular economy, plastics, trade, waste management
    JEL: F18 L65 Q53 Q56
    Date: 2023–03–02
  2. By: Ariel Luis Wirkierman (Goldsmiths, University of London)
    Abstract: The present paper sets out trends in the functional income distribution implied by countries' integration in Global Value Chains (GVCs), taking account also of interregional interactions (South-South and North-South). Through the application of an innovative input-output methodology, it quantifies inter-country differences in functional income distribution by means of a novel indicator to estimate the distributive profile associated with domestic vis-a-vis international specialization. The focus is on trade flows, and the analysis carried out allows us to single out the distributive implications of alternative regional integration projects, in view of a more inclusive multilateral trade system.
    Keywords: Global Value Chains; Input-Output analysis; Functional income distribution.
    JEL: D57 E16 E23 F60
    Date: 2023–01–24
  3. By: Bove, Vincenzo (University of Warwick); Di Salvatore, Jessica (University of Warwick); Nistico, Roberto (University of Naples Federico II)
    Abstract: We investigate the effect of economic sanctions on trade flows in countries sharing a border with sanctioned states. According to trade models, sanctions are expected to reduce trade flows as they disrupt established trading routes and economic relationships with suppliers and customers. However, there may also be instances where countries circumvent trade restrictions by clandestinely exchanging goods with sanctioned countries across the border and trading on their behalf, leading to an increase in imports and/or exports. To shed light on this issue, we employ a combination of large-N panel data analysis and comparative case studies using the synthetic control method. We find that, in the aggregate, neighbouring countries experience economic costs as sanctions disrupt trade. Yet, case studies uncover heterogeneity in countries' responses, with some cases exhibiting an increase in trade flows. We discuss possible explanations for these outcomes in the case-study analysis.
    Keywords: economic sanctions, trade, sanctions-busting, land neighbours, smuggling, synthetic control method
    JEL: F13 F14 F51 F52 K42
    Date: 2023–02
  4. By: Anna Matzner; Birgit Meyer (WIFO); Harald Oberhofer
    Abstract: This paper analyses the direct and indirect trade volume and trade cost effects of uncertainty on international trade and economic welfare using a structural gravity framework for a panel of 97 developed and developing countries from 2000 to 2018. Our results suggest that an increase in unilateral uncertainty affects average trade costs in a heterogeneous manner, depending on whether the uncertainty originates from the importing or exporting country. Moreover, using a cross-sectional gravity approach, we show that an uncertainty shock directly reduces cross-border trade flows. The paper illustrates the suitability of the proposed modelling approach by means of two counterfactual scenario analyses in which we calculate the general equilibrium trade and welfare effects of uncertainty induced by the unexpected outcome of the Brexit referendum in 2016 and the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
    Keywords: International Trade, Trade Costs, Gravity, Uncertainty, Counterfactual Scenario Analysis, Brexit, COVID-19
    Date: 2023–03–08
  5. By: Wisarut Suwanprasert
    Abstract: Prior to China's accession to the WTO in 2001, tariffs on Chinese products were based on an annual renewal of China's MFN status. Recent empirical evidence suggests that US importers stockpiled Chinese products to avoid the risk of high tariffs if the renewal were unsuccessful. I estimate the international spillover effects of the removal of US trade policy uncertainty on the timing of monthly US imports from the United States' major trading partners, by using product-level data at the HS 6-digit level, from 1991 to 2007. The empirical analysis finds that the removal of trade policy uncertainty alters the timing of US imports from Canada, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and the United Kingdom. Canada, Mexico, and South Korea experienced larger spillover effects in products for which they had large market shares in the United States.
    Keywords: Trade policy uncertainty; China shock; NTR gap; International spillovers; Inventories
    JEL: F1
    Date: 2023–02
  6. By: Mario Larch; Yoto V. Yotov
    Abstract: Starting with Tinbergen (1962), quantifying the effects of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on international trade flows has always been among the most popular topics in the trade literature. Also not surprisingly, to estimate the effects of RTAs, most researchers and policy analysts have relied on the workhorse model of trade—the gravity equation. Over the past 60 years, there have been many important developments in the RTA literature, both in terms of better methods to quantify their effects, and also in terms of more and higher quality data. The objective of this paper is to trace the evolution of the methods and data developments in the RTA literature, from Tinbergen’s very first exploration until today, and to critically evaluate their significance for our ability to measure the impact of RTAs (and other policies) on international trade.
    Keywords: regional trade agreements, gravity equation, estimation, methods, data
    JEL: F10 F14 F16
    Date: 2023
  7. By: Gabriel Felbermayr; Jasmin Gröschl; Inga Heiland; Jasmin Katrin Gröschl
    Abstract: On 1 January 2023, Croatia became the newest member of the Schengen Agreement of the European Union (EU) and also joined the Eurozone. This will not only mean a new currency and the elimination of border controls – allowing thus free movement within the Schengen area. It will also mean reductions in barriers to trade between Croatia and other EU member states. The Schengen Agreement and the Eurozone are part of the engine of European integration, namely the reduction of trading costs between the member countries in various dimensions as well as in trade with third countries. This includes the European Customs Union, the European Single Market, the Eurozone, the removal of customs barriers in the Schengen area and the EU’s free trade agreements with third countries – all of which are milestones that have created the world’s largest free-trade area in terms of value added. This article aims to highlight the importance of reducing trade costs and show what far-reaching effects a reversal of the European integration process through a gradual dismantling of these milestones would have on trade, production, and income across the EU member states and their trading partners.
    Date: 2023
  8. By: Kym Anderson; Erwin Corong; Anna Strutt; Ernesto Valenzuela
    Abstract: Over the past three decades, tariff protection to farmers has fallen and partly been replaced by domestic support, whilst support for farmers in some emerging economies has grown. Against that backdrop, this paper provides new estimates of national economic impacts of global agricultural tariffs and domestic supports. Using the latest global economywide GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model calibrated to 2017, we simulate (a) the removal of food and agricultural domestic supports and agri-food tariffs and (b) the removal also of tariffs on imports of non-agricultural goods. We find that agricultural support policies are still an important part of the global welfare cost of all goods’ trade-restrictive policies (albeit only half as costly as in 2001), and tariffs still dominate the global welfare cost of all farm-support programs. That farm support could be re-instrumented to relieve natural resource and environmental stresses, boost food and nutrition security, and alleviate poverty and income inequality.
    Keywords: Distortions to agricultural incentives, Domestic support, Agricultural market access restrictions
    JEL: F13 F14 O13 Q17 Q18
    Date: 2023
  9. By: Buccella, Domenico; Fanti, Luciano; Gori, Luca
    Abstract: In a three-country model in which export countries adopt environmental policies, this note analyses how abatement ("green") subsidy can become a potential strategic trade policy tool. When governments set the optimal policy tool considering their local environmental damages, a rich set of equilibria arise. In contrast to the standard result, it is shown that subsidising pollution abatement can 1) emerge as a Pareto-efficient equilibrium of the game; and 2) be the only feasible environmental policy when environmental awareness is low, irrespective of the technological efficiency. Therefore, "green" subsidies can lead to a win-win situation.
    Keywords: Abatement subsidy, Exports, International duopoly
    JEL: H23 F13 L13
    Date: 2023
  10. By: Priyaranjan Jha; Antonio Rodriguez-Lope; Adam Hal Spencer
    Abstract: We develop a dynamic general equilibrium framework with firm heterogeneity and monopsonistic labour markets, for quantification of the impact of trade and FDI liberalisation episodes. Firms make standard extensive margin investment choices into exporting and multinational statuses. The labour market features upward-sloping supply curves and love of variety in employment. These features interact with the variable-fixed cost tradeoff of outward activity. We calibrate the model to U.S. data and study the effect of reductions in tariffs and outward FDI taxes in both bilateral and unilateral contexts, examining steady state and transitional effects. We compare the predictions of this model with a more standard version with perfectly competitive labour markets. Our headline finding is that the model with labour market power gives substantially different quantitative estimates to the perfectly competitive version. For instance, a bilateral trade liberalisation gives welfare gains that are over 10 times larger in the presence of monopsony power. Significant quantitative differences persist with a variety of robustness exercises.
    Keywords: Monopsonistic labour market; Trade liberalisation; Love of firm variety; Dynamics; Foreign direct investment; Corporate taxation
    Date: 2023
  11. By: Mathias Bühler
    Abstract: A central argument for trade liberalization is that when the ‘gains from trade’ are shared, countries see large gains in economic development. In this paper, I empirically evaluate this argument and assess the impact of elite capture on regional development. Africa provides a unique study ground because the arbitrary placement of country borders during the colonial period partitioned hundreds of ethnic groups across borders. This partitioning is a source of variation in population heterogeneity and cross-country connectedness that is independent of economic considerations. Thus, African borders provide both a credible instrument for bilateral trade flows and enable the assignment of trade flows —and their impacts— to individuals. I find that while ethnic networks increase trade flows, increased trade activity decreases subnational economic development when measured by satellite data or individual wealth. I show that this counter-intuitive result comes from elite groups capturing the gains from trade, with detrimental impacts on trust and democratic progress in society.
    Date: 2023
  12. By: Bona, Leandro Marcelo; Páez, Sergio Martín
    Abstract: From the beginning of the 21st century, China has played a dominant role in international trade and geopolitics. China has been experiencing great economic growth for decades, a significant increase in its share in the global production of goods, its own novel technological developments. One of the consequences of this phenomenon is the increase in China's demand for commodities and supplies to maintain its levels of growth, which has resulted in significant increases in the foreign sales of food-exporting countries. This study presents information of recent commercial and financial links between South American countries (particularly Argentina and Brazil) and China, in order to analyze them in terms of economic development. The evaluation of these relations as a form of competence based on the deepening of the exploitation of natural resources using the dependency approach.
    Keywords: Development, Foreign Trade, Environment, South America, China
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2022
  13. By: Lionel Fontagné; Ariell Reshef; Gianluca Santoni; Giulio Vannelli
    Abstract: We study how technology adoption and changes in global value chain (GVC) integration jointly affect labor shares and business function specialization in a sample of 14 manufacturing industries in 14 European countries in 1999– 2011. Our main contribution is to highlight the indirect effect of robotization on relative demand for labor via GVC integration. To do this, we develop a methodology to separately account for robots in the total capital stock. Increases in upstream, forward GVC participation directly reduce labor shares, mostly through reductions in fabrication, but also via management, marketing and R&D business functions. We do not find any direct effects of robot adoption; robotization affects labor only indirectly, by increasing upstream, forward GVC integration. In this sense robotization is “upstream-biased”. We also study novel channels through which rapid robotization in China shaped robotization in Europe and, therefore, GVC participation. This highlights an understudied way by which the global integration of China has affected relative demand for labor in its trading partners.
    Keywords: Labor Share;Functional Specialization;Global Value Chains;Upstreamness;Technological Change;Automation;Robots
    JEL: E25 F14 F16
    Date: 2023–03
  14. By: Chadha, Jagjit S.; Lennard, Jason; Solomou, Solomos; Thomas, Ryland
    Abstract: This paper investigates the degree of pass-through from import prices and tariffs to wholesale prices in interwar Britain using a new high-frequency micro data set. The main results are: (i) Pass-through from import prices and tariffs to wholesale prices was economically and statistically significant. (ii) Despite devaluation, import prices exacerbated deflation in the early 1930s because of the global slump in export prices. (iii) Rising protection, however, was a mild stimulus to prices during the shift to inflation.
    Keywords: exchange rates; interwar; pass-through; prices; tariffs; United Kingdom
    JEL: E31 F13 N14
    Date: 2023–02–01
  15. By: Khelifi, Atef
    Abstract: The role of terms-of-trade shocks in driving economic fluctuations is revisited through a multisector small open economy (SOE) model, where the various types of goods can all be consumed and employed as inputs. Under this assumption, we show that contrary to conventional wisdom, terms-oftrade shocks may not necessarily trigger an economic boom for the exporting country, if its export goods are intensively employed or consumed domestically. We calibrate and estimate the proposed model using data from 15 emerging countries and find that it performs better than the standard model to explain the different impacts of terms-of-trade shocks across countries documented by Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe (2018).
    Keywords: Terms of trade; business cycles; microfounded dynamic Leontief input-output model; DSGE model
    JEL: E32 F41 F44
    Date: 2023–01
  16. By: Andrés Mauricio Gomez-Sanchez (Universidad del Cauca, Colombia.); Juan A. Máñez Castillejo (Universidad de Valencia and ERICES, Valencia, España.); Juan Alberto Sanchis-Llopis (Universidad de Valencia and ERICES, Valencia, España.)
    Abstract: The objective of this work is to explore the impact of ICT (using several indicators) on the firm’s export decision for Colombian manufacturing. To study this decision, we specify a model that accounts for sunk costs, firm previous experience in exporting and the impact of importing on exporting, and we estimate a dynamic (panel data) discrete model for the decision to export. To undertake this study, we merge three data bases at the firm level for Colombia: the Annual Manufacturing Survey (EAM), the Technological Development and Innovation Survey (EDIT) and the Annual ICT Manufacturing Survey (EAM-TIC), for the period 2013-2016. The results we obtain, show that ICT has a significant and positive impact on firm’s propensity to export, regardless the ICT category examined. Our work also confirms the existence of persistence on firm’s exports, self-selection, and depreciation of export experience. This evidence contributes to the scarce empirical literature on this topic for emerging economies, such as Colombia.
    Keywords: ICT, Exports, Self-Selection, Panel Data, Emerging Economies.
    JEL: L16 L96 F14 C23 D22
    Date: 2023–03
  17. By: Tanguy Bonnet
    Abstract: This paper investigates the links between strategic minerals and foreign direct investment. I contribute to the literature on the FDI-resource curse by studying strategic minerals, the fundamental raw material of the energy transition.The paper presents a precise overview of strategic minerals, their uses, and the geographical distribution of mineral production. This presentation highlights the novelties and peculiarities of strategic minerals which, due to their plurality, complexity and interdependencies, represent an energy commodity quite different from hydrocarbons, but of capital interest for the needs of the energy transition. The econometric study in panel data at the macroeconomic level allows to find the results of the literature, namely a negative relationship between foreign direct investments and the presence of hydrocarbons, the FDI-resource curse. The core of my results contributes to the literature by showing a positive relationship between FDI and the presence of strategic minerals. Strategic minerals thus escape the FDI-resource curse. These results can be explained by the new and particular characteristics of strategic minerals which represent new stakes and do not obey the same rules as hydrocarbons. The paper therefore discusses the ambiguous economic consequences of this positive relationship between minerals and foreign investment.Finally, the paper raises the consequences in terms of geopolitical strategies around strategic minerals issues, in terms of production, needs and energy sovereignty, and highlights China's global strategy and foresight.
    Keywords: strategic minerals, foreign direct investments, resource curse
    JEL: Q4 F21 C23
    Date: 2023
  18. By: Jian-An Li; Li Wang; Wen-Jie Xie; Wei-Xing Zhou
    Abstract: Pesticides are important agricultural inputs to increase agricultural productivity and improve food security. The availability of pesticides is partially achieved through international trade. However, economies involved in the international trade of pesticides are impacted by internal and external shocks from time to time, which influence the redistribution efficiency of pesticides all over the world. In this work, we adopt simulations to quantify the efficiency and robustness of the international pesticide trade networks under shocks to economies. Shocks are simulated based on nine node metrics, and three strategies are utilized based on descending, random, and ascending node removal. It is found that the efficiency and robustness of the international trade networks of pesticides increased for all the node metrics except the clustering coefficient. Moreover, the international pesticide trade networks are more fragile when import-oriented economies are affected by shocks.
    Date: 2023–02
  19. By: Lorenzo Cresti; Maria Enrica Virgillito
    Abstract: Focusing on labour requirements incorporated into GVCs, in the following, we develop a novel, non conventional measure of learning capabilities, represented by knowledge embodied along the division of labour within global production networks. In order to capture the division of labour, and the ensuing division of embodied knowledge, we move from monetary flows of production, or value-added embodied, to labour embodied in the I-O linkages. We focus on mature economies as offshoring has been particularly in place there. After constructing a new indicator of Bilateral Net Labour Dependence, we estimate its relationship with a measure of performance of industries, namely, labour productivity, seeking to challenge the established findings generally reporting a positive effect of GVCs participation for sector-level productivity. Our conjecture is that being in a weak position in terms of (net) labour provision results in an overall weakening of the capabilities of the loosing productive structure. We corroborate the conjecture with a panel analysis of OECD countries and industries for the time period 2000-2014.
    Keywords: Input-output; global value chains; international division of labour; dependency theory.
    Date: 2023–02–24
  20. By: Gislain S. GANDJON FANKEM (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Dieudonné TAKA (Douala, Cameroon); Sévérin TAMWO (Yaoundé, Cameroon)
    Abstract: This article fills the lack of work on the link between return migration and social cohesion in the country of origin of migration. For the first time, we assess the effect of skills acquired abroad by return migrants on social relations and quality of life in Cameroon using original survey data from the Institute of Demographic Training and Research. The main results, based on a probit model, show that formal and informal competences acquired abroad reduce the likelihood that return migrants will improve social relations and increase the probability that they will increase quality of life in their home country. These results remain robust to the inclusion of return migrants from African and non-democratic countries. Correcting for the endogeneity of skills acquired abroadby two-stage probit model with instrumental variablesdoes not alter these conclusions. Our results seem to corroborate the hypothesis that migration contributes to the transfer of norms and practices from destination countries to countries of origin.
    Keywords: Return migrants; skills; social relations; quality of life; Cameroon
    JEL: F22 O55 C3
    Date: 2023–01
  21. By: Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo; Manguzvane, Mathias Mandla
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of geographical distance on stock market correlations between countries within economic blocs. Specifically, this paper examines whether the degree of economic integration influences the nexus between geographical distance and stock market correlation. As the study compares two economic blocs, the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Free Trade Area (NAFTA), it finds that geographical distance negatively affects stock market correlations in the two economic blocs, but that effect is less significant for economic blocs with advanced economic integration. Contrary to past studies, this paper postulates that the negative impact of geographical distance on stock market correlation is a result of portfolio reallocation by foreign investors seeking high yields and safe havens in the local stock market when taking advantage of possible capital market liberalization.
    Keywords: stock market correlation; geographical distance; gravity model; economic integration.
    JEL: C13 F38 G1
    Date: 2023
  22. By: Jingfang Zhang; Emir Malikov
    Abstract: Existing literature at the nexus of firm productivity and export behavior mostly focuses on "learning by exporting, " whereby firms can improve their performance by engaging in exports. Whereas, the secondary channel of learning via cross-firm spillovers from exporting peers, or "learning from exporters, " has largely been neglected. Omitting this important mechanism, which can benefit both exporters and non-exporters, may provide an incomplete assessment of the total productivity benefits of exporting. In this paper, we develop a unified empirical framework for productivity measurement that explicitly accommodates both channels. To do this, we formalize the evolution of firm productivity as an export-controlled process, allowing future productivity to be affected by both the firm's own export behavior as well as export behavior of spatially proximate, same-industry peers. This facilitates a simultaneous, "internally consistent" identification of firm productivity and the corresponding effects of exporting. We apply our methodology to a panel of manufacturing plants in Chile in 1995-2007 and find significant evidence in support of both direct and spillover effects of exporting that substantially boost the productivity of domestic firms.
    Date: 2023–02
  23. By: Ms. Alina Carare; Mr. Yorbol Yakhshilikov; Catherine Koh
    Abstract: Undocumented migration from the Northern Triangle countries (El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras) to the United States has been steadily increasing over the past 30 years, accelerating at times. The paper investigates what factors could explain this fact, by estimating an investment decision model, using annual data over 1990-2019. Economic labor market conditions (real wages and unemployment rates, especially in the U.S.) play a major role in explaining undocumented migration. Less explored drivers of undocumented migration tied to living conditions at home also explain well undocumented migration (natural disasters, coffee production, higher temperatures, and homicide rates). Tighter border enforcement measures act as a deterrent, and perceptions regarding changes of these measures could also drive up undocumented migration at times. Policies that address the root causes of migration at home, including with the U.S. help, are essential in reducing the difference between perceived benefits and expected costs of migration.
    Keywords: International migration; undocumented migration; U.S. Department of Agriculture; investment decision theory; U.S. Department of Homeland Security; NT country; Migration; Real wages; Income; Unemployment rate; Natural disasters; Caribbean; Western Hemisphere; Global
    Date: 2023–01–27
  24. By: Illing, Hannah (University of Bonn)
    Abstract: This paper studies the labor market effects of out- and in-migration in the context of cross-border commuting. It investigates an EU policy reform that granted Czech citizens full access to the German labor market, resulting in a Czech commuter outflow across the border to Germany. Exploiting the fact that the reform specifically impacted the Czech and German border regions, I use a matched difference-in-differences design to estimate its effects on local labor markets in both countries. Using a novel dataset on Czech regions, I show that municipalities in the Czech border region experienced a decrease in unemployment rates due to the worker outflow, and a corresponding increase in vacancies. For German border municipalities, I find evidence for slower employment growth (long-term) and slower wage growth (short-term), but no displacement effects for incumbent native workers.
    Keywords: out-migration, in-migration, local labor markets
    JEL: J61 J15 R23
    Date: 2023–02
  25. By: Kym Anderson; Anna Strutt
    Abstract: Food production has been globally inefficient for many decades, with too many resources employed in agriculture in high-income countries and too few in numerous low-income countries where governments heavily taxed farm exports. Over recent decades policy instrument choices of advanced economies have moved away from mostly price support at the border to also domestic output and input price supports and then to somewhat-decoupled payments, to direct income payments to farmers, and to more-concerted payments to farmers for their co-provision of public goods. Even so, many agri-food policy instruments are far from economically optimal for attaining society’s stated objectives, and (according to our global modeling) their global economic welfare cost is still high. The paper concludes by outlining ways in which present farm supports could be re-purposed in high-income and emerging economies to achieve more-efficient, more-equitable, healthier and more environmentally friendlier outcomes.
    Keywords: Policy instrument ranking; Welfare cost of farm price supports; Re-purposing farmer assistance; Institutional and policy reform; GTAP modelling of farm policy reform.
    JEL: F13 F14 O13 Q17 Q18
    Date: 2023
  26. By: Simone Bertoli (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, IUF - Institut Universitaire de France - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics); Morgane Laouénan (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LIEPP - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire d'évaluation des politiques publiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Jérôme Valette (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, IC Migrations - Institut Convergences Migrations [Aubervilliers])
    Abstract: We provide evidence that Hispanic citizens receive significantly longer sentences than non-Hispanic citizens in the Federal Criminal Justice System in the United States when a higher number of illegal aliens are apprehended along the southwest border. Apprehensions can increase the salience of Hispanic ethnic identity, which is associated with persistent negative stereotypes, and can also deteriorate attitudes toward Hispanics. We rule out concerns that apprehensions might be conveying legally relevant information to judges. Thus, we provide direct evidence for timevarying discrimination toward Hispanic defendants. Our estimated effect is only at play for defendants without a heavy previous criminal record.
    Keywords: Immigration, Ethnic identity, Discrimination, Attitudes, Salience, Sentences
    Date: 2023–01–20
  27. By: Kangasharju, Aki; Kauhanen, Antti; Kalmbach, Aino; Valkonen, Tarmo
    Abstract: Abstract The decline of working age population makes it difficult to find employees. In this report we analyze the evolution of immigrant employment in Finland and the fiscal impact of immigration as well as the effect on the labor market. We show that the number of employed immigrants as well as immigrants’ employment rate in Finland has increased. We review the economic impacts of immigration. We show that the fiscal impact of immigration depends heavily on the characteristics of immigrants and the time of immigration and therefore no general conclusions can be made on the economic impact. However, we show that full-time employees pay more taxes than receive direct income transfers and therefore their direct fiscal impact is positive. This is true also for employees employed at the lowest pay grades in the collective agreements.
    Keywords: Immigration, Employment, Public finance
    JEL: J61 E24
    Date: 2023–03–08
  28. By: Kang, Duyong (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade)
    Abstract: Today the global economy is facing down the threat of a multifaceted crisis. Sustained by ultra-low interest rates and unprecedented levels of quantitative easing since the last global financial crisis, the global economy is taking a sharp turn toward tighter monetary policy as it experiences rampant inflation (in some countries at a 40-year high). As the economy has yet to recover fully from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, this has produced a looming threat of a recession and led to uncertainties stemming from soaring interest rates amid record highs in debt. On the other hand, the intensifying US-China rivalry for global hegemony — recently put on full display in Washington’s new national security strategy, its sanctions on semiconductor exports to China, and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s latest congress — poses additional, grave threats to the global economy. The continuing antagonism between the G2 countries will exert an impact beyond a simple decoupling of the two economies: it threatens to destabilize the global trade environment. Amid all this, climate change continues to add to the long-term risks faced by the global economy. Most importantly, all these disruptive factors can interact with one another to produce results that are far more difficult to predict and even more devastating. A global recession and ever-higher interest rates will adversely affect long-term investment in the energy transition, while the intensifying US-China rivalry also stands in the way of encouraging globally-concerted efforts to fight and mitigate climate change. The longer the delay in the global response, the greater the inevitable cost of climate change. These multifaceted global problems have converged to generate a state of polycrisis. This paper explores the nature of this polycrisis, its effects on the Korean economy, and identifies the implications carried for policy.
    Keywords: polycrisis; US-China conflict; recession; interest rates; inflation; macroeconomy; macroeconomics; global trade; Korea
    JEL: E30 E31 E32 E42 E43 E44 E60 E61 E62 E66 F01 F02 F15
    Date: 2022–11–30
  29. By: Kata Fredheim (Stockholm School of Economics in Riga; Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies); Marija Krumina (Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies); Anders Paalzow (Stockholm School of Economics in Riga; Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies); Zane Varpina (Stockholm School of Economics in Riga; Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies)
    Abstract: Research shows that return migrants have a higher propensity to set up an entrepreneurial activity or be self-employed compared to non-migrants. We take a multidisciplinary approach and empirically study the case of Latvia as a migration donor country to learn how re-migrants participate in entrepreneurship back at home. We are interested if foreign experience can be seen as a vehicle for entrepreneurial activity and if it is worth looking at return migrants as agents of business growth and innovation. Not only we measure the fact of being entrepreneurial, but also explore sources that contribute to the higher propensity, attitudes to creating own business venture, level of ambitions and population sentiment towards entrepreneurs. Based on a nationally representative adult population survey of 8000 observations, we find that early-stage entrepreneurial activity, established business ownership as well as intrapreneurship for return migrants exceed that of non-migrant population. We find that self-perceived capabilities to start business is higher for those who have lived abroad, and fear of failure is lower; re-migrants also have better businesses networks and have higher growth and export ambitions. The return migrant entrepreneurship in Latvia is not necessity driven, rather motivated by opportunities. Migration experience, length of stay aboard and capital accumulated abroad are found to be significant predictors of probability to become entrepreneur when controlled for socioeconomic and personal factors.
    Date: 2022–08
  30. By: Jacopo Bassetto; Giuseppe Ippedico
    Abstract: Brain drain is a growing concern for many countries experiencing large emigration rates of their highly educated citizens. While several European countries have designed preferential tax schemes to attract high-skilled individuals, there is limited empirical evidence on the effectiveness of fiscal incentives in a context of brain drain, and on migration responses beyond top earners. In this paper we investigate the effects of the Italian 2010 tax scheme “Controesodo”, which granted a generous income tax exemption to young high-skilled expatriates who relocate to Italy. Eligibility requires a college degree as well as being born in 1969 or later, which creates suitable quasi-experimental conditions to identify the effect of tax incentives. Using a Triple Difference design and administrative data on return migration, we find that eligible individuals are 27% more likely to move back to Italy post-reform. Additionally, using social security data from the main origin country of Italian returnees (Germany), we uncover significant effects throughout the wage distribution, suggesting that mobility in response to tax incentives is a broad phenomenon not limited to top earners. A cost-benefit analysis reveals that the direct fiscal impact of the reform – a lower bound of the total effect in the presence of human capital externalities – is marginally positive, by virtue of the tax scheme targeting young high-skilled individuals.
    JEL: J60 H20 F22
    Date: 2023
  31. By: Angélique Breuillot (MMU - Manchester Metropolitan University); Rachel Bocquet (IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc); Véronique Favre-Bonté (IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc)
    Abstract: Despite an increasing number of studies identifying factors that influence the internationalization process for early internationalizing firms (EIFs), it remains unclear which of these numerous factors could play a strategic role and, more specifically, when. This paper develops a new conceptual framework anchored in the resource-based view to identify strategic resources that can explain EIFs' internationalization process accurately over time. Building on a systematic literature review based on 102 papers covering a period of 29 years, we methodically present a phase-by-phase observation of EIFs' internationalization process to identify the strategic relevance of different influential resources. The results highlight the importance of the shift from individual to organizational resources, which occurs at a critical phase of transition from the entry to the post-entry phase. Studying the evolution of strategic resources along four phases allows us to determine that the progress of EIFs through the phases of their internationalization process is closely linked to their resources' development process. This study suggests some promising research avenues, at theoretical and methodological levels, and results in a series of concrete recommendations intended for entrepreneurs and/or managers of EIFs.
    Abstract: Malgré le nombre croissant de publications sur les facteurs influençant le processus d'internationalisation des entreprises à internationalisation précoce (EIP), il reste difficile de déterminer lesquels pourraient jouer un rôle stratégique, et surtout à quel moment du processus. Cet article développe un modèle conceptuel novateur ancré dans la théorie basée sur les ressources permettant d'identifier précisément les ressources stratégiques qui favorisent la soutenabilité du processus d'internationalisation des EIP dans le temps. À l'aide d'une revue systématique comprenant 102 papiers couvrant une période de 29 ans, nous identifions les ressources stratégiques à la progression des EIP à travers les quatre phases caractérisant leur processus d'internationalisation. Les résultats montrent également l'importance du passage des ressources individuelles aux ressources organisationnelles en phase de transition, située entre la phase d'entrée à l'international et la phase de post-entrée. En portant l'accent sur le lien étroit entre le développement de certaines ressources et la progression des EIP à travers le processus d'internationalisation, cet article propose des pistes de recherches futures prometteuses, tant au niveau théorique que méthodologique, et aboutit à une série de recommandations concrètes à destination des entrepreneurs et/ou des managers d'EIP.
    Keywords: international entrepreneurship, early internationalizing firms, internationalization process, resource-based view, systematic review
    Date: 2022
  32. By: Antonio De Vito; Martin Jacob; Dirk Schindler; Guosong Xu
    Abstract: This paper studies how corporate tax hikes transmit across countries through multinationals’ internal networks of subsidiaries. We build a parsimonious multicountry model to underscore two opposing spillover effects: While tax competition between countries generates positive investment spillover, intra-firm production linkages predict negative spillover. Using subsidiary-level data and exogenous corporate tax hikes, we find that local business units cut investment by 0.4% for a 1% increase in foreign corporate tax. This result highlights the importance of production linkages in propagating foreign tax shocks, as the supply-chain-induced negative spillover dominates the positive spillover effect suggested by the conventional wisdom of tax competition.
    Keywords: tax hike, investment, internal networks, multinationals, spillover effects
    Date: 2023
  33. By: Thomas COUDERT (LaRGE Research Center, Université de Strasbourg); Blandine ZIMMER (LaRGE Research Center, Université de Strasbourg)
    Abstract: This paper investigates whether Denmark, Sweden and the UK made the right choice in giving up the euro by examining the consequence of this decision on their GDP per capita. We use the synthetic control approach to create a counterfactual scenario of how their GDP per capita would have behaved if they had joined the euro area. Our estimates suggest that only Denmark would have benefited from the adoption of the euro. In contrast, for Sweden and the UK, until 2010, the euro would have had a zero or negligible positive effect on their GDP. From 2010 onwards, however, we observe a significant divergence between their GDP and the counterfactual, revealing that both countries would have lost out with the euro. Still, this effect is more significant for Sweden than for the UK.
    Keywords: Euro, per capita income, synthetic control method
    JEL: F15 F33 N14 O52
    Date: 2023
  34. By: Koen Voorend (Anker Research Institute); Richard Anker (Anker Research Institute); Martha Anker (Anker Research Institute)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the argument that the cost of a decent standard of living is lower for migrants than for nationals when the former have family members left behind in a low-wage, low-cost country. The wage differential between the host country and the country of origin is not only a motivating factor behind migration, but also partly a reflection of differences in the cost of living. This paper therefore analyses whether, following this rationale, a lower wage for migrant workers can be in a sense justified if one ignores ethical concerns around the need for “equal pay for equal work” argument. We analyze this argument for Nicaraguan migrants in rural Costa Rica based on two existing living wage studies which found that the cost of a basic but decent living standard is 2.5 times higher in the receiving country Costa Rica. We f ind that the empirical foundation for justifying a lower wage for migrants based on migrants having lower living costs because their family members left behind have lower living costs is not confirmed. This unexpected result is due to two main factors: (i) migrants have double costs for some expenditures (like housing) as well as considerable migration-related costs such as fees, increased phone costs, and costs for transfers, and (ii) the contribution to family income of a spouse is considerably lower for migrants because their spouse is earning in a low wage country.
    Keywords: Living wage, migration, immigrant workers, agricultural labor markets, discrimination, living costs.
    JEL: D1 D10 J3 J43 J6 J7 J8 O1 O15
    Date: 2021–06
  35. By: Thibault Lemaire (UP1 UFR02 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - École d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Paul Vertier (Banque de France - Banque de France - Banque de France)
    Abstract: Global commodity prices spikes can have strong macroeconomic effects, particularly in developing countries. This paper estimates the global commodity prices pass-through to consumer price inflation in Africa. Our sample includes monthly data for 48 countries over the period 2002m02-2021m04. We consider 17 commodity prices separately to take into account both the heterogeneity in price variations and the cross-correlations between them, and to depart from aggregate indices that use weights unrepresentative of consumption in African countries. Using local projections in a panel dataset, we find a maximum passthrough of 24%, and a long-run pass-through of about 20%, higher than usually found in the literature. We also consider country-specific regressions to test whether estimated pass-through are related to countries' observable characteristics.
    Keywords: Commodity prices, food prices, energy prices, inflation, pass-through, Africa
    Date: 2023–01–18
  36. By: Fakih, Ali (Lebanese American University); El Baba, Malak (Lebanese American University)
    Abstract: This paper studies the determinants of emigration from six Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries in light of the Arab Spring of 2011. The aim is to determine if the economically depressing events which occurred as a result of the Arab Spring, resulted in brain drain for many countries. The paper's analysis is conducted using the Arab Transformation Project dataset of the year 2014 by employing an ordered probit model. The main conclusion of the paper is that sentiments of unhappiness appear to be the main determinant of the decision to emigrate. Other post-revolutionary feelings include lack of trust and political and democratic discontent, which highly encourage emigration decisions. In addition, socio-economic factors, such as being young, being male, and being highly educated are all contributing factors to the willingness to emigrate. However, married individuals are less likely to consider emigration.
    Keywords: Arab Spring, emigration, unhappiness, attitude
    JEL: C25 J60 O15
    Date: 2023–02
  37. By: Alain Coen; Patrick Lecomte; Saadallah Zaiter
    Abstract: The aim of this study is to analyze the role of Chinese foreign direct investments (FDIs) in the dynamics of real estate in the Asia-Pacific region after the global financial crisis. We use a linear asset pricing model including macroeconomic risk factors and develop a metric to measure FDIs in the real estate sector. Based on panel econometrics, our robust results report that Chinese FDIs significantly influence Asia-Pacific region’s public real estate markets, shedding new light on China’s economic internationalization in the Asia and the Pacific region. We also provide strong evidence that our findings are not driven by a reverse causality phenomenon, whereby a country with superior performance of public real estate sector is in better position to attract Chinese FDIs.
    Keywords: Asia-Pacific region; Chinese foreign direct investments; Macroeconomic risks; REITs
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2022–01–01

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