nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2023‒03‒13
28 papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Global value chain dependencies under the magnifying glass By Cyrille Schwellnus; Antton Haramboure; Lea Samek; Ricardo Chiapin Pechansky; Charles Cadestin
  2. Are Global Value Chains Changing? By Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki; Hirvonen, Johannes; Pajarinen, Mika
  3. Sanitary and phytosanitary approval procedures: Key issues, their impact on trade, and ways to address them By Annelies Deuss; Edith Laget
  4. How will global trade patterns evolve in the long run? By Bekkers, Eddy; Corong, Erwin L.; Métivier, Jeanne; Orlov, Daniil
  5. Trade Policy Uncertainty, Offshoring, and the Environment: Evidence from US Manufacturing Establishments By Choi, Jaerim; Hyun, Jay; Kim, Gueyon; Park, Ziho
  6. Policies to strengthen the resilience of global value chains: Empirical evidence from the COVID-19 shock By Cyrille Schwellnus; Antton Haramboure; Lea Samek
  7. A novel framework to evaluate changes in access to and costs of trade finance By Auboin, Marc; Bekkers, Eddy; De Quarti, Dario
  8. How exporters neutralized an increase in tariffs By Asier Minondo
  9. The Last Free Traders? Interwar Trade Policy in the Netherlands and Netherlands East Indies By Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke; Pim de Zwart; Markus Lampe
  10. A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of EU CBAM for the Japanese Economy By TAKEDA Shiro; ARIMURA Toshi H.
  11. Does foreign direct investment influence poverty in Zimbabwe? A multivariate approach By Musakwa, Mercy T
  12. How to make global supply chains more resilient By Gereffi, Gary
  13. Intellectual property rights protection and trade: an empirical analysis By Emmanuelle Auriol; Sara Biancini; Rodrigo Paillacar
  14. Alternative Distributions of Foreign Direct Investment Stocks: Evidence from Captive Financial Institutions affiliated to Private Equity and Real Estate Investment Funds in Luxembourg By Gabriele Di Filippo
  15. Special Purpose Entities: Guidelines for a Data Template By Artak Harutyunyan; Mr. Carlos Sanchez-Munoz; Ms. Padma S Hurree Gobin
  16. Developmental relevance of Everything but Arms: Implications for Bangladesh after LDC graduation By Khorana, Sangeeta; Caram, Santiago; Biagetti, Marco
  17. The asymmetric adjustment of global imbalances: myth or fact? By Dausà, Neus; Stracca, Livio
  18. Got Milk? The Effect of Export Price Shocks on Exchange Rates By Hillary Stein
  19. How Much Can the Fed’s Tightening Contract Global Economic Activity? By Julian di Giovanni; Neel Lahiri
  20. Border Apprehensions and Federal Sentencing of Hispanic Citizens in the United States By Simone Bertoli; Morgane Laouénan; Jérôme Valette
  21. Tax Avoidance and the Complexity of Multinational Enterprises By Manon Francois; Vincent Vicard
  22. The Effects of the Venezuelan Refugee Crisis on the Brazilian Labor Market By Hugo Sant'Anna; Samyam Shrestha
  23. Investment facilitation in the WTO: The case for early harvesting By Hoekman, Bernard M.; Mavroidis, Petros C.
  24. In search of a growth model for Italy: The failed attempt of an export-led recovery strategy? By Bramucci, Alessandro
  25. The slowdown in Finnish productivity growth: Causes and consequences By Sara Calligaris; Outi Jurvanen; Auri Lassi; Francesco Manaresi; Rudy Verlhac
  26. Bargaining for working conditions and social rights of migrant workers in Central East European countries (BARMIG), National report: Estonia By Jaan Masso; Liis Roosaar; Kadri Karma
  27. Corruption and FDI: The role of social brokers By Godinez, Jose; Khalik, Mahmoud
  28. International Commodity Prices Transmission to Consumer Prices in Africa By Thibault Lemaire; Paul Vertier

  1. By: Cyrille Schwellnus; Antton Haramboure; Lea Samek; Ricardo Chiapin Pechansky; Charles Cadestin
    Abstract: Policy makers are increasingly grappling with the stability implications of global value chains (GVCs), as widespread supply shortages following the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian Federation’s large-scale aggression against Ukraine have disrupted the economic recovery and contributed to high inflation. This paper provides a tool to assess vulnerabilities in GVCs by drawing a detailed map of dependencies based on new indicators constructed from the OECD Inter-Country Input-Output tables. The key findings are as follows. First, GVC dependencies increase with both the size of foreign exposures and the length of foreign value chains. Second, in some industries, such as the automotive and ICT industries, vulnerabilities from high GVC dependence are amplified by high geographic concentration of suppliers or buyers. Third, the People’s Republic of China is the most critical choke point in GVCs across a broad range of industries, both as a dominant supplier and as a dominant buyer.
    Keywords: global value chains, international trade, resilience
    JEL: F14 F68 L52
    Date: 2023–03–01
  2. By: Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki; Hirvonen, Johannes; Pajarinen, Mika
    Abstract: Abstract According to a company survey, global value chains are changing. Even though big changes were expected during the Covid period, the actual changes were quite small at the time. Instead, after the early 2022, more obvious change has already been in the sourcing of materials and parts. They are sourced from more countries than before. However, at least so far, at the aggregate level we do not observe that companies have directed their purchases to the home country more than before. In any case, the disruptions experienced in global value chains have shown that their functionality is no longer taken for granted.
    Keywords: Value chain, Global, Globalization, Supply chain, Company, Imports, Change, GVC
    JEL: F1 F14 F60 L23
    Date: 2023–02–21
  3. By: Annelies Deuss; Edith Laget
    Abstract: Approval procedures are critical to sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) systems as they uphold countries’ commitments to facilitate safe trade. However, they can create significant costs and act as non-tariff barriers if not properly administered. This report examines the costs and opportunities that are associated with seven of the most pressing issues related to the administration of approval procedures. The analysis reveals that countries have increasingly raised specific trade concerns (STCs) to the WTO about issues related to approval procedures. Furthermore, gravity analysis demonstrates that trading partners dealing with STCs related to approval procedures trade 26% less on average than those not dealing with any STC. An OECD survey specifically designed to evaluate how issues related to approval procedures can be addressed indicates that multiple solutions exist to enhance efficiencies in agro-food trade, such as digitalizing SPS systems, relying on international standards or simplifying SPS measures.
    Keywords: Agriculture and food standards, Digitalisation, Gravity estimation, Non-tariff barriers, Safe trade, Specific Trade Concerns (STCs)
    JEL: F13 F53 Q17 Q18
    Date: 2023–02–14
  4. By: Bekkers, Eddy; Corong, Erwin L.; Métivier, Jeanne; Orlov, Daniil
    Abstract: In this paper the evolution of global trade patterns until 2050 is projected with a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Feeding the model with exogenous projections on macroeconomic, demographic, sectoral and trade cost variables, the evolution of trade patterns emerges endogenously from the model. The approach is innovative in both modelling approach and exogenous inputs. GDP growth emerges endogenously in the model because of diffusion of ideas as a result of international trade and trade cost changes are based on estimates of technology and trade policy changes. The projections indicate that (i) because of projected reductions in trade costs, trade will grow more than GDP, generating a global trade-toGDP growth rate of 1.1; (ii) because of structural change, the global share of manufacturing trade falls from 64% in 2020 to 52% by 2050, whereas the share of services trade rises substantially from 24% to 38%; (iii) because of technological catch-up, the share in global trade of both developing and least-developed countries (LDCs) will rise (with developing countries overtaking developed economies around 2035), the share of intra-developed country trade will fall, whereas the share of intra-developing country trade and those between developing and developed countries will rise.
    Keywords: Global trade patterns, long-run projections, dynamic CGE models
    JEL: F17 D58
    Date: 2023
  5. By: Choi, Jaerim (University of Hawaii at Manoa); Hyun, Jay (HEC Montreal); Kim, Gueyon (University of California, Santa Cruz); Park, Ziho (National Taiwan University)
    Abstract: We study long-run environmental impacts of trade liberalization on US manufacturing by exploiting a plausibly exogenous reduction in US trade policy uncertainty: the conferral of Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) to China. Using detailed data on establishment-level pollution emissions and business characteristics - including trade activities and global subsidiary information - from 1997 to 2017, we show that establishments reduce toxic emissions in response to a reduction in trade policy uncertainty. Emission abatement is mainly driven by a decline in pollution emission intensity, and not by establishment exits or a reduction in production scale. Emission reduction is more pronounced for (i) establishments with foreign sourcing networks and (ii) those under more stringent environmental regulations. We provide further evidence that supports the pollution haven hypothesis whereby offshoring is central to the mechanism - US manufacturers begin to source from abroad and establish more subsidiaries in China after PNTR, especially those that emit pollutants heavily.
    Keywords: pollution haven hypothesis, toxics release inventory, pollution emissions, trade and environment, trade policy uncertainty, offshoring, particulate matter, PNTR
    JEL: Q53 Q56 F14 F18 F23
    Date: 2023–02
  6. By: Cyrille Schwellnus; Antton Haramboure; Lea Samek
    Abstract: Widespread supply disruptions in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian Federation’s large-scale aggression against Ukraine have raised concerns among policy makers that globalised value chains expose domestic production to shocks from abroad. This paper uses new indicators of global value chain dependencies and exogenous pandemic shocks to econometrically estimate the effects of supply disruptions abroad on domestic output. The results suggest that the adverse effects of supply disruptions are particularly large when concentration of supplying countries and supplying firms is high. Counterfactual simulations of the econometric model suggest that diversification of suppliers would have sizeable benefits in terms of shielding domestic production against country-specific supply shocks, with partial onshoring of production having only small additional benefits. Technological innovation that reduces foreign dependencies, such as the substitution of renewable energies for fossil fuels, can have similar benefits as diversification.
    Keywords: global value chains, international trade, resiliance
    JEL: F14 F68 L52
    Date: 2023–02–21
  7. By: Auboin, Marc; Bekkers, Eddy; De Quarti, Dario
    Abstract: In this paper we integrate the costs of trade finance in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate the trade and output effects of counterfactual policy experiments on costs of and access to trade finance. The costs of financing international trade consist of two components: the financial costs and the costs associated with the risk of goods not being delivered, considering risk aversion of traders. These costs are determined for four ways to finance international trade (cash-in-advance, trade loans, letters of credit, and exports financed with internal working capital). Trade finance costs are a weighted average of the costs under the four different ways of financing. The framework is applied to trade of four ECOWAS countries employing data collected on financial costs, costs of risk and trade finance instrument shares through a comprehensive bank survey in these countries complemented with data from the literature. Counterfactual experiments on increases in the availability of letters of credit and trade loans and the costs of these instruments show that raising the shares and costs to African averages would increase trade of the four ECOWAS countries by about 11%. The framework is generic and can be applied to other countries.
    Keywords: Trade credit, international trade, financial institutions, general equilibrium simulations
    JEL: F10 F14 F39 G21
    Date: 2023
  8. By: Asier Minondo
    Abstract: I use the unanticipated and large additional tariffs the US imposed on European Union products due to the Airbus-Boeing conflict to analyze how exporters reacted to a change in trade policy. Using firm-level data for Spain and applying a difference-in-differences methodology, I show that the export revenue in the US of the firms affected by the tariff hike did not significantly decrease relative to the one of other Spanish exporters to the US. I show that Spanish exporters were able to neutralize the increase in tariffs by substituting Spanish products with products originated in countries unaffected by tariffs and shifting to varieties not affected by tariffs. My results show that tariff avoidance is another margin exporters can use to counteract the effects of a tariff hike.
    Date: 2023–02
  9. By: Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke; Pim de Zwart; Markus Lampe (Division of Social Science)
    Abstract: There has still been too little detailed work on the protectionism that emerged in the wake of the Great Depression. In this paper we explore the experiences of two countries that have been largely neglected in the literature, the Netherlands and Netherlands East Indies (NEI). How did these traditionally free-trading economies respond to the Depression? We construct a detailed product-level database of tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade based on primary sources. While ad valorem tariff increases in the Netherlands were largely due to deflation, the country protected agriculture and textiles in a number of ways. The NEI quota system was largely geared to protecting Dutch exporters, but the reverse was not true: Dutch trade policies benefited the metropole more than its largest colony.
    Date: 2023–02
  10. By: TAKEDA Shiro; ARIMURA Toshi H.
    Abstract: The EU plans to introduce Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to curb carbon leakage and protect energy-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) industry. This move by the EU to introduce CBAMs has raised concerns in Japan that it will harm Japanese industry and the economy. To address these concerns, this study tries to provide an ex-ante and quantitative analysis of the economic and environmental effects of the introduction of the EU CBAM. To capture the effects of the EU CBAM, this study employs a global multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model with 18 sectors and 17 regions. The main insights obtained from the analysis are as follows. First, we find that the introduction of EU CBAM significantly reduces carbon leakage from the EU. Second, the effects of the introduction of CBAM on GDP and welfare of each country varied from country to country, but the effects were generally very small. While there is a positive impact on GDP and welfare in Japan, again, the magnitude of the impact is very small. There will also be a negative impact on Japan’s EITE industry, but again, the magnitude of this impact is very small and not of great concern.
    Date: 2023–02
  11. By: Musakwa, Mercy T
    Abstract: This study examined the causal relationship between poverty and foreign direct investment inflows in Zimbabwe using data from 1990 to 2020. The study was motivated by the need to determine which factor influence the other between FDI and poverty. This would contribute to identifying possible solution to the challenge of low foreign direct investment and high poverty levels in Zimbabwe, despite the government open-door policy for foreign investors. The human development index and household consumption expenditure were used as poverty proxies. Using the autoregressive distributed lag to cointegration test and ECM-based causality test, the study found a unidirectional causal flow from poverty to foreign direct investment in both the short and long run, regardless of the poverty proxy used. The study confirms the importance of preconditions to foreign direct investment inflows. It is recommended that policy makers in Zimbabwe complement the open-door policy for foreign investors with policies that address preconditions such as poverty, infrastructure, education and health, to stimulate high levels of foreign direct investment.
    Keywords: foreign direct investment; poverty; human development index; household consumption expenditure; Zimbabwe
    Date: 2022–12
  12. By: Gereffi, Gary
    Abstract: Governments and companies play mutually supportive roles in building resilient global supply chains. This article identifies four post-pandemic managerial strategies and five government policies to enhance strategic competitiveness and develop workforce skills for 21st-century development.
    Date: 2023
  13. By: Emmanuelle Auriol (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Sara Biancini (ESSEC Business School and THEMA (UMR 8184) - Economics Department - Essec Business School - THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CY - CY Cergy Paris Université); Rodrigo Paillacar (CY - CY Cergy Paris Université)
    Abstract: The paper proposes an empirical analysis of the determinants of the adoption of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) and their impact on innovation in manufacturing. The analysis is conducted with panel data covering 112 countries. First we show that IPR protection is U-shaped with respect to a country's market size and inverse-U-shaped with respect to the aggregated market size of its trade partners. Second, reinforcing IPR protection reduces on-the-frontier and inside-the-frontier innovation in developing countries, without necessarily increasing innovation at the global level.
    Keywords: Intellectual Property Rights, Innovation, Developing Countries, Market Potential, Trade
    Date: 2023–02
  14. By: Gabriele Di Filippo
    Abstract: This paper presents alternative distributions of foreign direct investment (FDI) stocks held by captive financial institutions (CFIs) affiliated to private equity and real estate investment funds in Luxembourg. The study focuses on CFIs with total assets larger or equal to 500 million euros. The paper breaks down FDI stocks by geographical location, sector and main economic activity. The analysis is undertaken on both the liabilities side and the assets side of CFIs’ balance sheets. The paper considers four alternative counterpart concepts: the immediate counterpart country (traditionally favoured by international statistical standards), the sponsor (or capital manager) counterpart, the target (or capital recipient) counterpart and the client (or capital provider) counterpart. Results show that the traditional distribution of FDI stocks based on the immediate counterpart country differs substantially from the alternative distributions based on the sponsor/target/client counterparts. The alternative distributions provide two important improvements. First, the traditional distribution can be misleading as blurring the initial provider of capital and the final recipient of capital, but the alternative distributions can disentangle capital providers (clients), capital managers (sponsors) and final capital recipients (targets). Second, the alternative distributions can distinguish between FDI that effectively benefits the host country and FDI that transits via the host country to be invested in third countries. This second aspect is particularly important for countries hosting a financial centre such as Luxembourg.
    Keywords: Capital flows, Foreign direct investment, Captive financial institutions and money lenders, Sector S127, Investment funds, Private equity investment funds, Real estate investment funds, Financial structuring
    JEL: C80 C81 F23 F30 G23 G32
    Date: 2023–01
  15. By: Artak Harutyunyan; Mr. Carlos Sanchez-Munoz; Ms. Padma S Hurree Gobin
    Abstract: The Note is meant to assist compilers in the practical application of the agreed defini¬tion to identify resident Special Purpose Entities (SPE) in their jurisdictions and in collecting and reporting SPE-related cross-border data. To this end, these guidelines provide practical advice on the (1) implementa¬tion of the definition of SPEs, (2) possible data sources and processes for collecting and compiling SPE-related statistics, and (3) reporting within the agreed Data Template.
    Keywords: Globalization; multinationals; host jurisdictions; institutional units; control; cross-border flows and positions; SPE definition; SPE data collection; company B; SPE flow; SPE statistics; Special purpose vehicle; Data collection; External sector statistics; Foreign direct investment; International investment position; Global
    Date: 2022–10–03
  16. By: Khorana, Sangeeta; Caram, Santiago; Biagetti, Marco
    Abstract: Bangladesh is set to graduate from the least developed country status. Currently, Bangladesh benefits from preferential market access at zero tariffs to the European Union under the Everything but Arms scheme but its exports will no longer be eligible after graduation in 2026. Policy makers worry that the withdrawal of least developed country status may affect Bangladesh’s position as a major exporter of ready-made garments to the European Union. This paper examines whether preferential market access for exports supported poverty reduction in Bangladesh. We test the relationship with a fixed-effects estimator and an instrumental variable approach. Results show that preferential access for exports reduced working poverty in Bangladesh. When we factor in World Governance Indicators and the Logistics Performance Index, results hold, as is the case when endogeneity and reverse causality between average years of schooling and the working poverty rate are accounted for. Finally, we find that female labour participation reduces the working poverty rate. Our findings suggest that Bangladesh’s policymakers must focus on policies that foster governance and logistics, and build educational capacity for sustainable growth and poverty reduction.
    Keywords: Trade policy; preference; least developed country; graduation
    JEL: F13 F14 F16 O11
    Date: 2021–05–31
  17. By: Dausà, Neus; Stracca, Livio
    Abstract: We revisit the so-called ”secular international problem”, whereby the adjustment of current account imbalances purportedly falls entirely on the shoulders of deficit countries. We introduce a stylised model to rationalise an asymmetric counter-cyclical policy reaction that is stronger for deficit countries. When considering large current account adjustments (both deficits and surpluses) in advanced and emerging economies, we find surprisingly little evidence of greater policy activism in deficit countries. However, large surplus adjustments are less frequent and are associated with export compression, whereas deficit adjustments tend to accompanied by import contraction. Moreover, when we look at current account (terms of trade) shocks we do find some evidence of asymmetry in the sense that fiscal policy is tightened only in reaction to shocks leading to a larger deficit position. Finally, emerging markets display a more counter-cyclical response to negative current account shocks, partly mitigated by the quality of institutions. JEL Classification: F32, F41
    Keywords: Current account adjustment, fiscal policy, Harry Dexter White, John Maynard Keynes, secular international problem
    Date: 2023–02
  18. By: Hillary Stein
    Abstract: I examine the effect of exogenous terms of trade shocks on an exchange rate by turning to New Zealand’s dairy auctions. Dairy is New Zealand’s largest export category, making up almost 20 percent of exports. Specifically, whole milk powder accounts for 6 to 11 percent of total exports, and its price is determined in twice-monthly auctions. I use event studies to quantify the impact of surprise auction results on the New Zealand dollar on a high-frequency basis. I find that a 1 percent increase in whole milk powder prices has a modest, but nevertheless significant, effect on the nominal exchange rate that does not seem to be explained by interest rate movements. Rather, the effect seems to be driven by a combination of two channels: a financial flows channel and a fundamental channel. The methodology developed here can potentially be applied to other commodity exporters.
    Keywords: exchange rates; commodity prices; terms of trade; event studies
    JEL: F31 F41 G14
    Date: 2022–12–01
  19. By: Julian di Giovanni; Neel Lahiri
    Abstract: What types of foreign firms are most affected when the Federal Reserve raises its policy rate? Recent empirical research used cross-country firm level data and information on input-output linkages and finds that the impact on sales and investment spending is largest in sectors with exposure to trade in intermediate goods. The research also finds that financial factors drive differences, with U.S. monetary policy spillovers having a much smaller impact on firms that are less financially constrained.
    Keywords: U.S. monetary policy spillovers; Foreign firms; international production linkages; financial constraints
    JEL: E52 F0
    Date: 2023–02–13
  20. By: Simone Bertoli (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, IUF - Institut Universitaire de France - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics); Morgane Laouénan (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LIEPP - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire d'évaluation des politiques publiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Jérôme Valette (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, IC Migrations - Institut Convergences Migrations [Aubervilliers])
    Abstract: We provide evidence that Hispanic citizens receive significantly longer sentences than non-Hispanic citizens in the Federal Criminal Justice System in the United States when a higher number of illegal aliens are apprehended along the southwest border. Apprehensions can increase the salience of Hispanic ethnic identity, which is associated with persistent negative stereotypes, and can also deteriorate attitudes toward Hispanics. We rule out concerns that apprehensions might be conveying legally relevant information to judges. Thus, we provide direct evidence for timevarying discrimination toward Hispanic defendants. Our estimated effect is only at play for defendants without a heavy previous criminal record.
    Keywords: Immigration, Ethnic identity, Discrimination, Attitudes, Salience, Sentences
    Date: 2023–01–20
  21. By: Manon Francois; Vincent Vicard
    Abstract: Does the complexity of the ownership structure of multinational enterprises' (MNEs) serve tax avoidance? We use firm-level cross-country data to show that affiliates belonging to more complex MNEs are more likely to bunch around zero profit, which is consistent with complexity enabling tax avoidance by multinationals. Our results show that only the more complex MNEs shift profits away from their high-tax affiliates, while MNEs with flat ownership structures do not display such pattern.
    Keywords: Complexity;Firm organization;Multinational enterprises;Profit shifting;Tax avoidance
    JEL: F23 H2 L22
    Date: 2023–02
  22. By: Hugo Sant'Anna; Samyam Shrestha
    Abstract: We use administrative panel data on the universe of Brazilian formal workers to investigate the effects of the Venezuelan crisis on the Brazilian labor market, focusing on the state of Roraima, where the crisis had a direct impact. The results showed that the average monthly wage of Brazilians in Roraima increased by about 3 percent during the early stages of the crisis compared to the control states. The study found negligible job displacement and evidence of Brazilians moving to positions with fewer immigrants. We also found that immigrant presence in the formal sector potentially pushed wages downwards, but the presence of immigrants in the informal sector offsets the substitution effects. Overall, the study highlights the complex and multifaceted nature of immigration on the labor market and the need for policies that consider the welfare of immigrants and native workers.
    Date: 2023–02
  23. By: Hoekman, Bernard M.; Mavroidis, Petros C.
    Abstract: The benefits of an Investment Facilitation for Development Agreement need not wait for ratification by all signatories or approval from all WTO members. Early implementation can be realized through provisions in signatories' GATT and GATS commitment schedules.
    Date: 2022
  24. By: Bramucci, Alessandro
    Abstract: We analyse Italy's growth pattern from 2001 to 2019 using the demand and growth regime categories proposed in the post-Keynesian tradition and recently adopted in the comparative political economy (CPE) literature. We argue that Italy followed an export-led recovery strategy after the Global Financial Crisis. In this respect, Germany's growth model emerged as the successful one to follow. In the dominant view, Germany's economic success since the mid-2000s was attributed to a series of painful but necessary economic reforms. The success of Germany's export-led mercantilist regime became particularly attractive to Italy given the similar export-oriented manufacturing industry. However, Italy has followed the "wrong" German model based on wage compression and restrictive budget policies while the "true" German model is based on non-price competitiveness factors. To conclude, we show the contradictions of the mercantilist export-led regime.
    Keywords: Demand and growth regimes, export-led growth, competitiveness, internal devaluation, Germany, Italy
    JEL: E10 E69 F14
    Date: 2023
  25. By: Sara Calligaris; Outi Jurvanen; Auri Lassi; Francesco Manaresi; Rudy Verlhac
    Abstract: This report analyses the trends in Finnish productivity growth over the 2000s and 2010s. It describes its key features, makes comparisons to a benchmark of 16 OECD countries, and studies the causes of its sudden and prolonged slowdown which began at the end of the 2000s. The analysis focuses on the role of two contemporaneous demand shocks that hit the Finnish economy: the Nokia crisis and the Great Trade Collapse of 2009.Matching detailed firm-based information on structural characteristics of productivity growth with global input-output tables and National Accounts data, the report highlights how the prolonged drop in demand from the domestic computer and electronics sector may have induced a persistent drag on Finnish productivity growth. The report concludes with policy implications to strengthen Finnish resilience to idiosyncratic shocks to key sectors or large firms, while supporting long-term productivity growth and competitiveness.
    Keywords: GVCs, productivity
    JEL: E22 E65 O47
    Date: 2023–02–16
  26. By: Jaan Masso; Liis Roosaar; Kadri Karma
    Abstract: Since Estonia regained its independence in 1991, the regulation of international migration has been rather strict, with a relatively low annual migration quota for long-term employ-ment. Nevertheless, the 2010s saw the increased migration of third-country nationals, pri-marily via temporary working schemes. Since 2015, Estonia has experienced positive net migration, even in 2020. However, the importance of migrant workers varies significantly across the analysed sectors. The transience of migration causes problems for both the work-ing conditions and labour market integration of migrants. All signs indicate that social part-ners are often aware of these problems; however, though they lack the capacities to deal with these issues, they are interested in developing them. Despite some differences in how employers and unions perceive the need for a migrant workforce, even unions do not ques-tion the need for an additional migrant workforce. In order to tackle the challenges of the migrant workforce, alternatives to the current strict quota-based migration regulation sys-tem should be considered. Furthermore, the regulations should be adjusted by taking into account the specifics of the particular sectors in aspects such as the strength of the social partners, labour shortages and skills requirements, and the nature of the work and projects.
    Date: 2022–08–16
  27. By: Godinez, Jose; Khalik, Mahmoud
    Abstract: To reduce engagement in corruption, firms are increasingly accountable for the behavior of their intermediaries. However, current anti-corruption efforts have not included those agents that arrange the initial meetings between foreign MNEs and potential local partners. We call these initial intermediaries "social brokers." In our Perspective piece we argue that "social brokers" should be included in anti-corruption efforts.
    Date: 2023
  28. By: Thibault Lemaire (UP1 UFR02 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - École d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Paul Vertier (Banque de France - Banque de France - Banque de France)
    Abstract: Global commodity prices spikes can have strong macroeconomic effects, particularly in developing countries. This paper estimates the global commodity prices pass-through to consumer price inflation in Africa. Our sample includes monthly data for 48 countries over the period 2002m02-2021m04. We consider 17 commodity prices separately to take into account both the heterogeneity in price variations and the cross-correlations between them, and to depart from aggregate indices that use weights unrepresentative of consumption in African countries. Using local projections in a panel dataset, we find a maximum passthrough of 24%, and a long-run pass-through of about 20%, higher than usually found in the literature. We also consider country-specific regressions to test whether estimated pass-through are related to countries' observable characteristics.
    Keywords: Commodity prices, food prices, energy prices, inflation, pass-through, Africa
    Date: 2023–01–18

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